bastion tomorrow that's at 2:30 eastern time one of the best in the business. >> you have to stick with -- i mean, those are the names to own in this market, they've done quite well. >> thanks for watching "power lunch. glad you to join us. >> go get my lemonade jacket on. "closing bell" starts right now. thanks so much, welcome to "closing bell," i'm scott wapner this make or break hour begins with fatarget practice and whete the projections can be reached this year. in the meantime, take a look at the score card with 60 minutes togs in regulation, big day for the dow today, certainly relative to the other majors, it's up three quarters of 1%, energy and financial stocks are leading the way today. apple is contributing, too, even though it is a down day for technology as a sector there's apple pushing higher by two-thirds of a percent. nvidia shares sharply lower

following a volatile week that included a nearly 15% correction we will watch that very closely over this last power, see what it means to the markets at large. our talk of the tape, the second half setup for stocks is it favorable for the rally to condition continue let's ask dan greenhouse, with me here at post 9. welcome back. >> thank you. >> about to make the turn, so to speak, on the second half of this year. how do things feel to you? >> i think they feel pretty good you know, obviously there's not without concerns, the power move in nvidia, the underlying economy continues to hold up, eps expectations continue to hold up, the federal reskerv is presumably marching towards rate reductions i think you still have to feel pretty good with an acknowledgment that there's some signs of weakness to which we have to pay attention. >> oppenheimer says the bull market appears sustainable as the rally board ens across

sectors as investors increase their exposure to stock ubs while jeed owe political risks remain we believe solid economic growth rising investment in ai should create a supportive backdrop for equities that make sense? >> yeah, i think increasingly you have to kind of feel like the fed is going to get what it swants, a maids '90s-type soft landing. we're starting from inflation, a much higher level than was the case in the mid '90s but i think you have to feel like right now you're skating towards that type of an outcome. now, again, the data can turn and you have to be aware of that as an investor but that's true of any market environment, but right now it looks like that's happening. we've been talking about this for a year, the network has been talking about this for a year. that looks likely right now. >> you mentioned nvidia, if we say are these signs of froth and i say to you that stat i read last week, nvidia added $880

billion in market cap in 21 trading days that's stat number one number two, s&p 500 according to bespoke has gone 334 trading days without a one-day drop of 2% that. number or is that stat in and of itself is astounding almost a year without a 2% pull back in stocks. >> sure. >> you combine that with the nvidia number that i read to you, does it make you pause and say we're in for something a little dicey >> i would offer a couple of contextualized observations. if we just look today the s&p is on either side of flat right now, the rsp the equal weight etf investors want to use that as reference is up 90 basis points the last time i looked and i just yoet it down, nvidia down 6%, amazon, oracle, adobe, sales fost down 1%, qualcomm down 175%, the rsp up 90 basis

points last time i looked. at least in the last couple of days since nvidia's peak let's say which based on the chart was not a completely surprising that there would be a pull back, the broader market is higher since nvidia peaked. i think you have to take an encouraging -- there has to be an encouraging take away when you observe that. >> yeah, because some people have wondered, well, if you have a crack in one of these high-flying names the poster stock of the high-flying conversation can the rest of the market withstand whatever pressure that brings you and at least now it appears yes, although a few days, one day doesn't a larger trend obviously make. >> i was going to say, a pull back in the stock which we have up on the screen is different from a pull back in the story and i think that's important for investors to take note of. like, again, when you look at the chart on a shorter-term time frame, any of us who have been in markets for more than 15 minutes would say this is not going to keep going.

whether it pulls back 5, 10, or 20 percent top to bottom we have no idea. it's probably going to have something of a correction. as long as the story remains the same, the investment thesis, the capx expenditures, that's much more important nothing has changed in the last five days that i've seen to affect that narrative. >> that suggests that any sort of dip of magnitude is going to be quickly scooped up because you suggest the fundamental story is still wholly intact. >> mind you you haven't even have -- >> we had a 15% pull back it felt like in the blink of an eye. >> i'm talking the broader markets, nvidia peaked i think on the 18th and i think the equal weight index is higher today than it was then. >> btig talks about nvidia recently trading 100% over the 200 day moving average it's the widest spread any company has ever traded above it's 200 day 100% above its 200 day.

>> i know john very well, great guy, great golfer. >> but >> there is a but. john has -- i assume has done more work than i did because i spent 15 minutes on this, but i looked back since 2010 at 30,000 observations of the current constituents of the s&p 500 how often does any stock trade more than 100% above it's 200 day moving average i found 1% of all days was one of the s&p 500 stocks trading more than 100% above its 200 day moving average i don't know that this is the most ever. i'm sure john is right and i'm wrong, but based on my review even if it's the most ever, if it's the second or third most ever, it's really, really unusual to see a stock drift this far from -- >> sfwuz:you see that mean it's a bubble >> that's not a bubble, that's excessive, money flows, positioning. if it pulls back 20 -- listen,

cisco which everyone is talking about from the 90s, cisco pulled back 10, 15 and 20% just in 1996 it pulled back 30% in 1997, it pulled back 40% around ltcm in 1998 -- >> long term capital management. >> long term capital management for the younger viewers. i apologize. read the book. that's just cisco. that's true for ibm, et cetera. >> okay. >> you had multiple corrections along the way on the way to what game became the ultimate bubble, but this actually -- i can use this as a moment to pivot. i brought along a screenshot of a "new york times" article from july i think it was of 1995 from floyd norris, here it is up on the screen >> okay. >> floyd norris for the younger viewers was the mike santoli before mike santoli, the preeminent financial reporter. a bubble grows each bigger about the tech sector in july of

19956789 in the context of nvidia pulling back there were multiple times over the course of the late 1990s when people talked about the market being in the bubble, the greenspan speech was from 1996, you still went on to have '97, '98 and '99 i'm not making any comment about nvidia as a company or worthwhile investment, what i'm saying for younger investors who did not experience the late 1990s, early 2000s, you are going to have charts that do what nvidia has done where you will have a pull back of some size -- i'm notsaying this is the case -- but may not affect the larger narrative. >> you disagree wholly with people trying to make comparisons -- not a ton of people but there are comparisons being made between what's happening with nvidia to '99. >> the point i've made and i think dan siefs has made as well you had '95, '96, '97 and '98 before 1999.

post-gfc everybody is trying to be the next great bear and call the top. everyone rushes to 1999 as if nothing happened before. i'm tired of making the analogy, if you view the chatgpt release in late '22, if you view it the same as the net scape ipo that was '95. there were five years of investment, profitability, capx, buildout that went on. unlike the '90s when you had ancillary companies that were trading on zero revenues, et cetera, you don't have that today. these companies are extremely profitable i'm making no comment about nvidia as an investment. they're outpacing the street by exponentially larger numbers it's impossible to keep up with what they're doing right now not the stock with standing, but you don't get 100% revenue

growth every day. >> let's bring in another cnbc contributor, shannon as we get set to make the turn into the second half, how are you feeling about these markets? >> yeah, from an economic perspective i think we're, you know, from a fundamental outlook we are, you know, more optimistic than we were to start the year i think things are falling into place. dan talked about the mid '90s that's been the tipping point, right, for all of us who are talking about looking at soft landing, thinking about what could potentially happen if you look back in years of low volatility, '93, '95, less than a 5.5% pull back on the s&p 500. if you're getting the economic data you are looking for, cooling inflation and a normalizing labor market, yes, there are some cracks from an economic perspective but in the second half of the year if you think about what is the potential for earnings, are we going to continue to see some

opportunity for multiple expa expansion, there is more support there. now, in our view it's not going to be without some potential choppiness this summer but through the end of the year we are more constructive on the economy and, therefore, more constructive on the ability particularly for certain industries and sectors to be able to grow the earnings in the second half of the year and support growth of the s&p 500. >> so i want to correct something, too jonathan krinsky is watching our program, thank you for watching. he said nvidia recently trade 100% above it's 200 day moving average since 1990 the widest spread any u.s. company has ever traded above its 200 day moving average. i may have stopped what i was reading at that point. important distinction is while it was the largest company. >> okay. >> nd' makes that distinction as well thank you. my bad >> no bad. >> i didn't finish the sentence. well, it's important. >> i will talk to john afterwards and we will confer on the data. >> you gave him a lot of props,

n though. >> he is the terrific. what a golfer. >> does that give you pause about what we're watching in awe as it relates to nvidia? >> i think that the pause here is really more on a positioning standpoint, scott. we talked about this on friday there isn't evidence that there is a disruption in the force that is the ai mega trend right now. it's really the right sizing of a particular position that was seen as the easy button for ai and there are other opportunities to invest in this theme, however, this one is the easiest because it is the first true enabler of ai so, therefore, you have to understand that there is going to be some volatility, you don't get all of the up without some of the down, but i think your question earlier is is this going to potentially be the impetus or the impulse for people that aren't in the stock right now. i think we would have to see a little bit more of a pull back

for that, but i wouldn't be surprised to see additional interest if we do get closer to 20% off the high, that's where you start to see people get engaged who haven't maybe been in the stock previously. >> and i would just add it's not -- i mean, we talk about nvidia, it's the largest and biggest number of the stories but a lot of the other names that are involved in the ai buildout, on the industrial and utility side of things are all well off their highs there's been a momentum -- i'm sure shannon has seen this, but there's been something of a pull back in momentum more general eel right now. >> if you look at chipotle. >> that's a perfect example. >> it's not just ai related stocks that have had a bit of a pull back, it's just growth in general is what you're -- >> micron is 10% off the high, we mentioned broadcom earlier, down 10% from the high there's been something of a change in the market right now but, again, we all know this, but in the context of the rally

that we've had over the last one week, one month, et cetera, some pull back was neft able at some point, we are just experiencing it now. >> shannon, the question was, and i guess still is, if you had a pull back in growth would you have a rotation into perceived value? would the market broaden would it be okay if nvidia pulled back if other sectors picked up the slack. maybe you're getting a little sniff of that. at what point do you say i actually believe it, i believe in this story now? >> well, i think you could get some belief in a tailwind from the election, scott. we are turning the page here the second half of the year and you talked about earlier energy and financials performing well, they exhibited some leadership over the course of the last couple of months if you get some emphasis, for instance, or attention being paid to the election and some potential policy changes, that sort of points you into some of these value sectors. it certainly makes you -- deal

making a little easier that would help tech. i think it may be the impetus to get additional broadening out because of a shift of focus away from interest rates and the fed and potential policy in 2025. >> there's never a full shift away from the fed as steve liesman knows because there is a parade of fed speak nearly every day. whether it's steve talking with austan goolsbee, had mary daly today. i feel like more fed speakers are coming out and talking about the risks of going too restrictive for too long. >> yes i guess you want to be a little careful with that assessment, scott. it could be true, it could be just that the fed speakers we have had have been those who have noted that and i think it's definitely become more a part of their discussion this idea that the risks are more balanced and talking up issues like the extent to which there are concerns

goolsbee price today in my interview talked about the idea of needing to question just how restrictive the fed is given some of the weakness we've seen in some of the economic data not that it's all that weak, but it has definitely taken a step down those are two things to mark and then daly who just talked to deirdre bosa and also gave a speech, also talked about gathered weakness they have to watch. we're going to watch to see if the others in the parade, there's daly talking about the potential response if inflation is indeed higher or lower or the economy weakens more than expected but we have had some weakness in labor and fed officials are making note of this they're not necessarily pivot to go a different outlook, scott, on monetary policy, they're not saying, well, okay, the data is weak, we need to cut they're saying we're seeing some weakness and now it's time to maybe think about changing potential policy. >> i mentioned the parade of fed

speakers, the grand smarr marshall of the parade, the fed th chair himself talked about the two-sided risks of keeping policy too tight for so long he said it more than once, too it's clearly on the mind of policymakers they've gotten us this far, what most people would say was reasonably successfully and they don't want to overstay their welcome and ruin the story that seems to be pretty decent >> that is 100% correct. they're still trying to get that -- what daly called the benign outcome, but she did say that benign outcome is potentially less likely right now given what's happening, at the same time sort of talking out of both sides of her mouth, she noted that we may need that weakness to get inflation down look, scott, it's a very big question right now of how far to push this. what are you really aiming for and how much are you willing to risk in order to get to exactly

2% daly just told deirdre we're still going back to 2% but there is this issue we have talked about, the sacrifice ratio how much unemployment are you willing to risk? how much weakness in the economy to get to that 2%? do you really need it? i have a story i'm going to do tomorrow which says this, if we do .2 as opposed to .15 inflation we will end up with 2.4% inflation year over year for every month forever. we will never get at .2 which is a very slight rise in the monthly rate if that happens over time, scott, we will never get to 2.4. so what does the fed do in that context? is 2.4 good enough or do you want unemployment to go to 5% or higher to get from 2.4 down to 2? >> we're going to get pce this week and i think many assume that it's going to be a reasonably favorable reading my question to you, i suppose, at this point is what's it going to take, is it even worth

thinking about, what it would take to make july a live meeting? >> you know, scott, i think that's an excellent question and i tend to think july is more live perhaps than the market does we're looking at 10% probability on july. >> wow >> i'm just trying to think about -- and here is what i'm gaming out -- is dan still there because i'd love to hear what he has to say about it? >> i am, sir i am. >> all right, dan, work with me on these numbers here. if the forecast is right, 2.8 to 2.6 and let's say you get 2.6 down, that's how many months in a row? let's count it, april was good, may was good, june was good, july would be good that would be four months in a row of good inflation and powell is going to stand up there and say in that context he's still not confident? well, what's it going to take, mr. powell >> really, really good questions. what do you think? >> that's exactly right.

but to make july a live meeting you would have to have something materially change in the fundamentals of the economy. we know inflation is kwing beginning to move -- again, as you mentioned the pce will be in the mid 2s in short order, obviously they want to get it down to 2% but that's not -- they're going to start adjusting interest rates before then i think when you start getting down to 2.6, 2.5 a fed that already sounds to me like they want to start reducing interest rates is going to get even more comfortable with talking about reducing interest rates. is that going to happen soon enough for july? i doubt it. >> why do you say that something meaningful has to change with the economy? that insinuates that they won't cut simply because as steve laid out the inflation prints have given them the confidence they've been so dearly looking for, right >> that's right. what i'm saying is -- how do i want to put it the reduction in inflation into the mid 2s gives them some comfort talking about reducing interest rates rather than actually reducing interest rates. the difference of what we're

talking about is two months with i in the big deem -- >> that might be everything. >> i don't think so. >> it gives them a chance -- it shortens the window in which they could potentially cut rates again. >> well, no, you are thinking about on a calendar basis, that's fair, maybe you think they should cut twice this year instead of once, i'm thinking about it in a larger context i don't think july is soon enough nor them and if they start cutting in september -- >> yeah, but, dan -- >> yes, sir. >> steve, you get the last word. >> another way to think about this, you had six months of really good inflation in '23, you had as austan goolsbee described it to me a lousy january and not a great but not a terrible february and march. why isn't the six months of '23, the second of '23, added to the four months if we do get those four good months and say, look, we had ten out of 12 or 10 out of 13 good months of inflation, why isn't that enough to give

them the confidence to go -- you're confirming, dan, my sense that the fed walked up in march, saw its shadow and declared six more months of inflation. >> sure. we're talking about two months, not a big deal >> we'll see we'll see. and that's the fun part. steve, thanks as always, i appreciate you shannon, we will talk to you soon. >> dan greenhouse as well. let's send it to seema mody. >> scott, 38 minutes left in trading we're watching the buy now pay later stock affirm jumping 10% after goldman sachs upgrade the company to buy from neutral saying affirm is the leading provider of modern credit solutions for consumers also citing strength in underwriting, shares have more than doubled in the last year. and freight company rxo climbing by more than 20% to a new 52-week high after announcing it has struck a deal to buy coyote logistics from u.p.s. for more than a billion dollars

rxo ceo told cnbc earlier today that the deal more than kubls its company's truck brokerage calling it a transformational deal u.p.s. slightly higher by 1%. we're just getting started up next we have your second half playbook dan chung reveals his strategy he will join us after this break. post 9 at the new york stock exchange exchange you're watchin ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ on cnbc. chewy, a citi client, uses citi's financial expertise to help drive its growth and keep its supply chain moving, so more pet parents can get everything they need... right when they need it. keeping more pets, and families, happy. ♪♪ for the love of moving our clients forward.

for the love of progress. so this is pickleball? it's basically tennis for babies, but for adults. it should be called wiffle tennis. pickle! yeah, aw! whoo! ♪♪ these guys are intense. we got nothing to worry about. with e*trade from morgan stanley, we're ready for whatever gets served up. dude, you gotta work on your trash talk. i'd rather work on saving for retirement. or college, since you like to get schooled. that's a pretty good burn, right? got him. good game. thanks for coming to our clinic, first one's free. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or

visit coventrydirect.com.

nvidia shares are selling off again today after snapping an eight-week win streak, now down nearly 15% from the recent high dan chung joins me at post 9 welcome back i'm sure you like everybody else

is getting asked 1,000 times a day about nvidia and what to make about it. >> seems to be all we can talk about. i will just note that a great company like nvidia is going to have a lot of corrections along the way. this is another near-term correction, i think, longer term just a lot more upside in nvidia, it's growing over 100%, the multiple is not that high in the stock because earnings and revenues have kept up with the stock really i will note that in april it had a near 20% correction and went on to new highs just recently. i think this is an entirely natural process and i would stick tight. >> have you ever seen anything like it, though? >> well, i have. '98, '99 -- >> you yourself are making comparisons to back then. >> sure. but my view is we are not in '98 or '99 yet with ai, we are probably more like '96, '97 so there is a lot more to go. >> before the you know what hits the fan?

you mentioned a valuation and some would point out those who follow the stock very closely would say before the run started the stock was at 60 times, now it's around 40 times so it's important to have that perspective, but nonetheless they look at the price action in the stock and say, how is it -- how is it possible for a stock like this to just almost go up every single day before this most recent correction obviously? >> i mean, we are fundamental investors and i think we have some of the best tech analysts and portfolio managers in the business some who have come from the industry so the key is simply nvidia's dominance in the industry right now the shortage of capability in the semiconductor industry. you can't do ai without nvidia right now. finally as a stock the multiple. the multiple in our internal estimates is quite a bit lower than the market. the inn nvidia has been

consistently beating on revenue and earnings and we think it will continue to do that. >> we are up 29% on the s&p but this is a what have you done for me lately business as you know so now what? >> i think it is summer, we're heading into the blackout period for companies and buy-backs, earnings season in july will be interesting. the last earning season showed definite slowing in the u.s. economy but it wasn't around nvidia or tech or ai, it was around the consumer, around industrials. i think we will see more of that, but ultimately i think we're going to talk about this ai, tech-driven cycle being as big or even bigger than the late '90s. >> how are you thinking about fed cuts we were just having the conversation about what they may do this year and how many times they may cut does -- i mean, your bullishness, is it factored by

what you think is going to happen from the fed or is the fed irrelevant to your perspective at this point? >> actually, i was very concerned that the overestimation of how many cuts the fed was going to do this year, which was six cuts just seven to nine months ago that the overestimation and the disappointment by going now to essentially one or none would be a sign of where the market really s the fact that the market has gone on to new highs since we've learned there won't be any fed cuts before the election at least, i think to me indicates we are in a very strong bull market for many years. >> for many years? >> years. >> so the earnings power is going to continue to carry this market higher? is that principally that we are talking about? you don't think we're late cycle? >> i don't think we're late cycle at all, no i think this is similar to a mid cycle slowdown which we saw in '94, '95 and then as the economy was recovering, which i think we're still seeing here and globally, then the internet

drove upgrade cycle and computing, a whole flock of new companies that lid the '90s, i think we will see a similar pattern here. >> good talking to you, dan. thanks dan chung joining us at post 9. up next, the man who called the selloff in nvidia, jeff dee graph is back with us, we get his reaction to the symptom's correction plus what sector he says is plus what sector he says is right to break o rhtowutig n i! -how? -a.i. (impressed) ay i like it! who wants to come see the future?! get your business online in minutes with godaddy airo "closing bell" is coming right back

she runs and plays like a puppy again. his #2s are perfect! he's a brand new dog, all in less than a year. when people switch their dog's food from kibble to the farmer's dog, they often say that it feels like magic. but there's no magic involved.

(dog bark) it's simply fresh meat and vegetables, with all the nutrients dogs need— instead of dried pellets. just food made for the health of dogs. delivered in packs portioned for your dog. it's amazing what real food can do.

all right. welcome back nasdaq selling off semis, taking another leg lower today. our next guest says the charts show a rotation out of that red hot tech group and into another. rent advance macro research's jeff degraaf joins me to explain. it's good having you back because you were darn right when you said that chips looked vulnerable, nvidia looked vulnerable and we had this 15% correction, who knows whether it's going to be quickly bought and we're back on the run again, but what led you to view that at the time you did, not that long ago, and then now where does it go from here >> yeah, again, the what have you done for me lately business, right? >> yeah, it is >> it's a good point it was really driven by sentiment, scott what we do is we parse the option activity and when we look

at when the premium is being paid for upside are substantially different than that being paid for down side it just says the expectations are too high there is a few other things that we do around that. but that's where we just say, look, this is not a high probability outcome for us, it's not something we feel comfortable with it's not bearish overall,it usually ends up about a three-month consolidation, we had something similar as an example back in february, we got that 20% correction that your previous guest was mentioning. i think that's what we are in for today. the only difference i'd say about today versus, say, the spring is we really are crossing the seasonal rubicon here for semis. the summer months, particularly the third quarter, ends up being the worst quarter for semiconductors basically historically if you follow the seasonal trends you want to be a seller of semiconductors in late july and want to sit on your hands until the mid part of october and that's where the strongest seasonality kicks n if

you're playing that calendar and interestingly enough i think a lot of things are supporting that, both sentiment, momentum, the failure of an oversold condition, et cetera, i think that's what we're setting up for. the good news is i think nvidia is still in the long-term uptrend, i think the corrections probably prove to be viable, i think you just have to temper the sentiment and i think that will happen. we probably take it down close to par, 100, 101 is gap support but that's where we would start looking and sniffing around to add to positions there. >> i guess i would say it's difficult when you start tying historical precedent to an industry that is, you know -- part of it is being reborn by the whole ai transformation. so the calendar doesn't know about ai, do you know what i'm saying so this could be different. >> from a seasonal perspective 100% i agree with you. i would just say behaviorally it is very much like what we've seen before, right the circumstances are always

different, but the way people react, i always tell clients there's three things people can do, you can buy, sell or hold and there's really an infinite number of reasons why to do all of dhthose things, but when you put the behavioral together with the momentum is what has us more concerned. i would look at seasonality as icing on the cake there. >> if it could get worse from here in semis, which is principally the call you're making, what conversely could break out from here that maybe not enough people are focused on >> i think there's two things happening today in particular that are interesting obviously the weakness in semis, but the day is generally a broad day, last i looked the russell was about 700 names up versus 300 down, that's a decent day. you have biotech which the nasdaq biotech index is actually breaking out here, which is really, really good news, coming out of big base formation, the fund flows have been pretty negative, it's also a more

speculative group. that's what i like to see, which is we're not taking money away from, say, semiconductors and some of the high-octane names and going into staples, they're actually just rotating those dollars into other areas that have growth opportunities. i think that's more bullish than it is bearish. >> i see you're also looking at the medals and minors. >> this is a tape where when we look at strategists's forecast they've been clamoring to have the high forecast of the street. when it starts to happen it's not necessarily bearish for the market but it is points where you don't have be to really aggressive and chase our whole point to clients is look for oversold conditions that are in good uptrends, metals and mining are one of those industry groups from that uptrend that recently got oversold this is an area we reallocate dollars to oversold conditions and take away from extended names we think are due for a pause >> you're feeling pretty good squloefr all about what the

market can do over the next six months >> i do. i think it's going to be a grind, though. i think it's going to be rotational, i think we have to temper some of the enthuse yachlt i think that's going to happen with this correction we think we're going to get in semiconductors, but i think it's all still a bullish setup for at least the back half. we have a 5,080 price target on the s&p we put in place back december of last year. we're still comfortable with that we've been hitting those milestones as we see it. the sentiment is the one thing i think needs to be cooled off a little bit and we know from history that sentiment usually responds to price and so some type of correction, consolidation in the summer should set up for a pretty good end of 2024. >> jeff, i appreciate it thank you. jeff degraaf joining us. the biggest movers into the close. seem i can't modi is back with that. >> a choppy session for the cruise lines, there is one stock

close to hit ago new high. we will reveal which name after this break

sure, i'm a paid actor, and this is not a real company, but there is no way to fake how upwork can help your business. search talent all over the world with over 10,000 skills you may not have in house. more than 30% of the fortune 500 use upwork because this is how we work now.

15 to the bell let's get back to seema mody for a look at the stocks she is watching >> scott, we will start with ibm. stock is high yes graks analysts writing bichlt bm has made a significant overhaul of the software portfolio and that the

ai's offerings have finally begun to pay give dnds goldman a buy rating, price target of 200. royal caribbean trading in record high territory up another 2.5%, jpmorgan raising the price target from 173 to 175 a share and maintaining the overweight rating citing stronger bookings as carnival gets set to report earnings tomorrow morning. >> all right thanks, seema. still ahead, the crypto space feeling serious pain to start the week bitcoin tumbling below 60,000. what's behind the big move lover and how the crypto-related stocks are faring. that's coming up the bell is coming right back.

can i have another pancake? from full house... ...to empty nest... ...to free birds. vanguard personal advisor can help you prepare for every chapter. we got this. that's the value of ownership.

what will you do when the power goes out? power outages can be unpredictable and inconvenient, but with a generac home standby generator, your life goes on uninterrupted. because when your generac detects a power outage, it automatically powers up, giving your family the security and peace of mind they deserve. we don't have to worry about whether we lose power or not. if the utility company does not come through, our generac does. after the hurricane happened, we just want to be prepared for anything. 8 out of 10 home generators are generac, with thousands of satisfied customers. number one thing to prepare for is extended power outages. don't make it so hard on yourself, have a generac home standby generator. and owning a generator is easier than ever. special financing and low monthly payment options are available, and if you call now, you will also receive a free 5 year warranty valued at over $500. call or go online now to request your free quote.

ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. are you interested in safeguarding your investments with gold? alamos gold is a growing canadian gold producer with a long track record of outperformance. alamos gold. invest with us. our growth sets us apart.

now to the most important news of the entire hour, we have a new addition to the cnbc family, kristina partsinevelos and her husband justin welcoming their son sebastian axel 8 pounds, 4 ounces, mom and sebastian are happy and healthy. there is the beautiful baby right there.

we wish the entire family our love during this exciting time we will see you back here soon look at that up next, we're drilling down on big moves in the energy space. that is behind the rally in that sector and what it could signal for brdethe oar market that and much more when we take you inside the market zone

when we're young, we're told anything is possible... ...but only a few of us go out and prove it. witness the greatness of anna hall on a connection worthy of gold: xfinity mobile. only xfinity gives you the most powerful mobile wifi network, with speeds up to a gig in millions of locations. and right now, xfinity internet customers can buy one unlimited line and get one free for a year. get the fastest connection to paris with xfinity.

power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley power e*trade's easy to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans can help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley all right. we are in the "closing bell" market zone. mike santoli is here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day, plus pippa stevens, kate rooney on the selloff in bitcoin and crypto you first, first day of the

week, pce this week, nvidia in a correction of some kind. >> pretty significant stakes given we are closing out the quarter in the first half. you know, i mentioned all last week that the week after the june options expiration which is this week opened up a window perhaps for some greater index level volatility, maybe some sloshing around. it's not really happening at this point you basically have a well-behaved market, reacting to the pull back in the semis as well as you might expect obviously as everybody is saying, market breadth in general is positive, niagra groups are being picked up whether that is the mechanical after effects of this very, very persistent dispersion trade where people are betting on index com and diverges below the surface as an active trade, not just an observed pattern, that keeps paying off also when you consider that the june nvidia 140 call was by far the most active options contract traded last week, it expired

last week. nvidia printed a high of 140 and change, a lot of money was lost on this stock on the last little lunge higher all that is great. can we risk for it to continue yes. can you expect it to be perfectly choreographed i'm not sure about that. still seems like a fully-positioned market. pce has to be cooperative. a good bit in long bonds today that's very helpful. i'm not raising any alarms, i'm observing that this is as good as it gets for absorbing that kind of a shock in the leadership. >> the fed has been a nonfactor in the greater conversation for a few weeks now, a couple weeks maybe. i don't want to go too far. >> a nonfactor in the sense that there are reminders they are in no hurry to cut. >> the market hasn't been obsessing about it every second like we once were. whether that comes back to the forefront by the end of the week if the market is still in some kind of digestive state around

nvidia and things get a little rocky, here we are again. >> i think the stakes are rising because you now have september cut priced around 70% and a drum beat starting for july you really are seeing people saying the fed has enough if pce is tame on friday to go in july. >> maybe we will be live. >> therefore, if the fed pushes against that, maybe you have the opportunity for some turn learns. >> pippa steechs, what's happening in energy today? >> scott, by far the best sector today, although one of still just three sectors in the red on the month. the group has lagged oil itself for june, meaning we could see a bit of a catch up trade. the drillers are leading the way, brent tops 86, nat gas a bit of a lift. devin, coterra, oxy up more than 4% drilling activity is helping the services names, but the refiners, marathon petroleum, valero 66, the relative

underperformers amid soft gasoline demand. wolf research noting two names to watch are cheniere and oneok, the firm said the pipeline company's solid uptrend has stalled but the stock could see a breakout to the upside. >> pippa stevens kate rooney, talk to me about crypto, specifically bitcoin right now it's 59.8. >> so it is -- it fell -- >> what was the high 70 something >> 73,000 is the high. one industry headline added to pressure earlier, a crypto exchange that went bankrupt a decade ago said it's now going to start repaying creditors, that was month gox, the payments will be made in bitcoin, you saw a knee-jerk reaction with prices ticking lower overnight in asia, also outflows from etfs adding to some of that pressure since the last meeting

there's been a billion dollars or more, slightly more when to comes to outflows. bitcoin, anything that would affect the fed's path, high growth and momentum names are lower today, bitcoin has been trading in that bucket and it's been quite correlated to nvidia which we've been talking about, 60,000, this was seen as auto key technical level for bitcoin. i was going to say if it falls below that, but here we are, the next support level could be $51,000, up 40% or so this year. >> i was literally writing down nvidia plus crypto, that's where we're at, right? >> yes there was a big overshoot in nvidia to the upside relative to crypto not to say they are closing the gap but they are definitely softening up in the same direction. bitcoin has been pretty good in terms of foretelling the short-term rhythms even in the nasdaq 100 in general. they just feed off of that same next big thing attitude and that kind of money flow so, again, it's more of a

coincident indicator and reflects other things that we're watching right here in terms of, you know, kind of the rotation inside the market. with err losing a little bit of altitude as, again, that perfect choreography maybe breaks down a little bit and some defensive stuff performing better, you know, pure defensive, coke and things like that. >> i thought you were talking about alphabet and apple. >> they serve that purpose, too. i was talking more about really old fashioned in the bunker defensive, which haven't been performing at all. so i don't think that means we are worried about the economy, to me it means there is an engine out there hunting for lag guards to pick up on a relative trade and that's what's been working here today to some degree. >> banks working today as well. >> banks working today, a little bit of news about maybe some slightly relaxed, you know, fed standards in terms of some regulatory stuff but they were conspicuous lag guards even as treasury yields came down over the prior couple of weeks.

again, it's almost a luxury that the market has the ability to shift things from one pocket to another and react to its own dynamics because the macro has been relatively quiet for a while. >> a corrective market but not disruptive your point is well made. mike, thank you. mike santoli, the dow having a pretty good day. i will see you tomorrow. into ot. well, big selling for big tech, the nasdaq finishing at session lows down about a percent, the s&p 500 finishing at session lows as well. but the dow eking out gains. we saw a pull back for nvidia, that's the score card on wall street welcome to "closing bell: overtime" i'm morgan brennan with jon fortt. >> the ceo of arm holdings as the company wraps up the first