stop. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm melissa lee along with joe kernen. becky is off today. andrew is at the aspen ideas festival. he will join us later on in the show. why are you giving me the side eye? first thing in the morning? >> all that pleading worked. here you are again. you pleading? me pleading for you to be on. all that begging. >> which way? >> all that begging. >> i'm glad to be here and joining you this morning. equity futures at this hour. we are looking higher in the s&p as well as the nasdaq. the dowdown 16 at the open. this coming after the drop of 1% for the s&p 500.

nvidia is sinking down 6.7%. that brings nvidia losses over the last three sessions to 13%. among the other tech decliners yesterday, dell, super micro and arm and qualcomm. today, in the pre-market at this hour, the chips will stage a reversal. treasury yields right now, the ten-year holding at 4.23%. bitcoin continues to slide. billions worth of bitcoin could come to the market because they will pay back those who lost money. rebound of 2.6%. $61 $61,358. >> not too long ago and it looked like -- there was a 5 handle briefly yesterday. >> yeah. >> not for long. weird how it is correlated. it is almost nvidia. some people think the breakdown of bitcoin is the market falling

with the tail meets dog. >> i think so. >> the stock. i don't understand the stock market. conflicting signals. no 2% losses. maybe there's a lot of money on the sidelines. i don't understand. >> what is propelling us higher? >> i guess part of the bullish aspect as a -- last year, i believed it a lot more when people didn't believe it. this year, i don't know. i think we had a lot of gains last year >> we had a lot of gains this year. >> i know. >> it is hard. mid-year we had gains. it is harder and harder to be a bull. >> last year, magnificent seven. then supposedly breadth was improving. it is a couple of stocks. a third of the s&p gains is nvidia. >> there are glimmers of hope, if you call a day or two glimmers of hope, but glimmers of hope broadening with nvidia

tumbling. other sectors not performing too well. we will see nvidia's comeback. we will see how the other sectors do. late in the day yesterday, participation by banks. if banks come in for the rally, we could be talking. >> and a.i., obviously, could change all our lives. the state it of right now, what i see, i'm not impressed. we have to build it out and get the chips and get everything ready and set it all up. some day it's going to be amazing, i hope, because there is a lot of promise. now it is building up all of the hardware for what it will don fr everyone. >> i guess what we see from the consumer is different from the corporate world. >> have you played it out? it sucks. it's like google. >> it is. that's how we are using it at

this point. >> it collates and gives you garbage in and garbage out. >> there is up paper work. can you manage streamlining and replace with an algorithm a.i. to sort through it? >> when do you use logic or insight or intuition? >> now are you talking singularity. how do you have intuition built into a computer model? >> i don't know. how does it differ from putting a bunch of search stuff together if it can't take it to the next step to use that information to come up with some type of human-type conclusion instead of, all right, this is what i found. i looked on the internet. i'm able to put it in sentences, subject, verb, object. i'm not giving you any value added. trillions of dollars in the market based on what this is supposed do at it? okay, if i was in college, i could cheat on a paper.

that's all it does. or i need to write a thank you note. if i ever do that -- if i ever do that -- what? >> remember andrew typed in some letter like, chatgpt i'm joe kernen. send a letter to my boss asking foy a raise. >> oh, that's right. >> it was amazing. except it was too respectful. it was obvious it was not you. >> it found good qualities. i forgot about that. maybe it is okay. breaking news. following the charge against apple yesterday, the eu is hitting microsoft about the an anti-trust rules by teaming teams app with other software. unbundling of teams from the other products, in its words, was insufficient to address the competition concerns and more changes are needed. in a statement, microsoft president brad smith said, in part, we appreciate the

additional clarity provided today and work to provide solutions to address the commission's additional concerns. you you have to hand it to the eu. basically, in the socialism land over there in europe, there's no innovation. they don't have any new tech companies. they are not good at entrepre entrepreneurship. they see what we are doing over here. it kills them. why not get 10% of the revenue instead of really doing anything yourself? would that not be a great answer? $38 billion from apple? why start a company? is there any silicon valley in france? >> not that i know of. >> there's wine. stuff like that. rich, creamy sauces. if that was -- if you could have a high multiple put on rich, creamy sauces. >> going to paris next month. >> i don't think they will keep

me there, are they? >> we'll see. >> they don't want me. you know what i'm saying. really? are these companies so egregious, are they just good at what they do or are these things egregious antitrust problems? >> according to the eu, there are problems. >> for years, the eu -- we don't want their brand of capitalism here. i don't think it should be forced. >> i don't think it is forced. the companies operate there and they have to follow the rules of the local country. detail that to microsoft and see what it does to the stock. >> we'll see what it does when none of them have spreadsheets. france. there have to be other businesses there. i better stop. airbus shares stumbling overnight. the company is cutting target overnight including aircraft deliveries and earnings. it now -- airbus is doing pretty good compared to boeing.

they do have that. >> a regulatory stance. >> or having total screw ups running the company over here didn't help. now expects earnings of 5.5 billion euro down from guidance of 6.5 to 7 billion euro that it affirmed in late april. airbus now expects to deliver approximately 770 commercial aircraft this year compared to what they had seen of 800. the supply chain issues and mainly in engines and aero structures. and separately, boeing switched the offer for spirit aerosystems to stock frrather tn cash. they were closing in on an all-cash deal over the weekend and boeing switched to the value of company stock. terms of the deal are still worked out. they are under cash pressures as

the production schedule is not up to par by far. oracle is warning investors that the u.s. ban on tiktok might hurt its business. in the annual report, it provides cloud infrastructure for tiktok which has over 150 million users in the sfrmu.s. if the company cannot redeploy, the revenue would be adversely impacted. oracle did not disclose to tiktok. and yesterday, a wall street journal report that said apple and meta platforms held a discussion about the artificial intelligence chatbot into apple's a.i. ovefferings. the report says that the companies held brief talks in march, but no longer in discussions, in part, because apple doesn't see meta's privacy

practices as stringent enough. it is almost perfect when you come in and do this. seamless. >> now you're late because we're talking -- >> there are two minutes of copy to read. we would have been down eight minutes early. now we're hitting it. >> it is always perfect. coming up, get ready for the trading day an let. we will talk about the pullback and what is ahead. we will lkta to representative jodey arrington. "squawk box" will be right back.

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their connection is unreal. and we could all un-experience this whole session. okay, that's uncalled for. the nasdaq composite seeing it's worst day since april. we have jackie cavanaugh with us. shares of nvidia and that rollover was marked by a day with the reversal and a new high and heavy lows are continuing. are you concerned with gains in pre-market? are you concerned about the weakness of the leadership in the market. >> listen, you talked about this topic a lot in terms of the difference with the equal weight and s&p. we are concerned. we are big deliversblifr believ a.i. it say seis a secular growth st.

it is the same with storage and cpus and cloud. hyper scalers spend a lot and it falls off. we think trees don't grow to the sky. there is an under lining cyclical ty and there are really good pros expects for broadening in the market. that's what we are looking for. >> we need participation of the sectors that have not necessarily come along. we got a report yesterday from bloomberg that bank capital requirements my be onerous. you used to have the analyst team. how impactful will this be going from the increased in capital of proposed 16% to as little as 5% for the banks? >> that was a very meaningful m article. the original proposal is about

the fed being a big chappllenge for the banks. i think that bringing that back in is really important and should allow some leadership particularly because a lot of those big names are in a very overcapitalized position. they all started building for the end game. the market has seen this move before. the regulator puts the goal out for five years and the market expect you to be there tomorrow. there is an opportunity for meaningful buybacks. i think tomorrow night, the results will be another meaningful catalyst for the banks. >> which banks are you looking at more closely with the results? >> we are big investors in citigroup. we think jean is taking all of the right steps to transparency and accountability and returns. stock trade is below tangible. that's a 50% or 60% return in the mega cap bank.

that's one we find attractive. >> what is jpmorgan chase trading at on book? >> 1.9. >> i thought it was two. is jpmorgan chase overvalued? >> it is. when jamie said he wouldn't buy his stock, that's a tell. is it overvalued? probably. it is a great franchise. it has a higher return profile than citi. you can't look at citi and say we're playing for two. certainly playing for one. >> eli capital one financial. are you concerned about credit turning south? >> we are concerned. one of the things we're seeing at putnam is a recovery. everybody talks about hard landing or soft landing, but a k-landing. you are seeing credit card dr delinquencies rise.

we think the opportunity with discover is meaningful with the returns and financial. it is a little bit of the enemy of my enemy is my friend. there is a lot of question whether this deal gets through, but having a stronger competitor, visa or mastercard, is good to regulators. >> why do you have this alter alternative? >> you have the alts and getting into 401(k) and retail investors is powerful. franklin templeton, which owns pu putnam, is bringing this forward to the product offering. the benefit plans is 30% return. 401(k) is nowhere. same dollars for the same. why aren't there more? we do think that is a path alternates will travel where they get into 401(k). there is a convergence. you saw kkr announce a

relationship with capital group. we think this is a long-term secular tailwind that will drive these companies. they are not very expensive. >> to like all of the financials that you mentioned, what rate back drop do up want to see? do you an seem we have seen the highs and fed will have the next cut and down from here? >> we think we can put the fed aside for a while. for the past 18 months, we have a.i. and the fed. if you think about it, we came into the process and nobody had a 5 handle for where the fed would go. there was a massive disblocatio. when we got to 5, everybody priced in five cuts in six months. now we're at convergence. i think for the next 12 months, we can sort of say, we know what the fed will do and it is close enough that it will not matter and focus on the fundamentals. i think as you get to 26, you

have to be thoughtful of the fed because they pencilled in the 3 handle for the fed funds rate. >> do not have to think about the fed until 2026? >> and middle of 2025 is where i put it. >> all right. jackie, we will see before then. jackie cavanaugh, thank you. coming up, why was it the busiest travel day ever? >> sunday was, wasn't it? >> june? >> i don't know. school's out. >> i don't want people driving places? everyone is flying in june? i don't know. i don't know why. i don't like it. >> you are not flying. you're here. >> last time i did, it was a total pain even at terminal a. lots of people. you know what? they don't staff tsa reearly in the morning. it is just as busy. they're so pleasant.

a new record for air travel as tsa gears up for a surge of air passengers in the week surrounding the july 4th holiday. "squawk box" will be right back.

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before. the tsa, you know who i'm talking about, the friendly types. tsa said it screened 2.99 million people on sunday breaking the single-day record now with the july 4th holiday approaching fast, the tsa expects to screen 32 million people between this thursday and july 8th. that's a 5.4% increase over last year. tsa anticipating the peak travel day will be friday, july 8th. i'm laughing. >> you want to dial it back because you are worried somebody is watching and give you a hard time. >> imagine dealing with 38million people. >> you would hate that. you would be so bad at that job. >> the kind of people that still leave crap in their pockets and still don't take the belts off

and leave the laptops in and bring water. they all still do the things and the tsa at that point are just like, you people are -- it's a bad combination. people working long hours. >> people who are not used to trav traveling. >> dealing with the public. bad combination. hideous. i have compassion for people on both. >> i'm glad you changed your stance. >> you're right. >> somebody is watching. they will search every pocket. >> or pat me down which -- >> nobody wants that. coming up, wegovy maker is building a new factory. details after the break. as we head to break, the look at the s&p 500 winners and losers.

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the all new godaddy airo. get your business online in minutes with the power of ai. hello. i'm ethereum. and i'm big finance. you look really tired. just calling it a day. but it's 4 p.m. yeah, and i've been working nonstop since 9:30 this morning, so. 9:30. you don't say? yep. you'd want a little shut-eye too if you'd been moving billions around the world. well, actually, i do. you know, stablecoins, nfts, loans. people can access me 24/7. what? but look, everyone's different. you should get your rest. you'll get after it tomorrow. tomorrow's saturday. [ethereum] monday. you'll get after it again on monday.

good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. checking the futures, nasdaq is strong and mixed again this morning. the nasdaq and the dow have had trouble being on the same page for a while in a lot of the sessions. a lot of it has to do with whether nvidia is going up or down on any given day. crypto prices are seeing a nice rebound after a couple of days. three or four days of pretty significant selling. up almost 2.5%. i don't know. everything strikes me this morning. i need a streaming bundle. you know, i didn't -- you don't want your cable bundle. you have to replace with the streaming bundle to go like this because of your wifi. you replace one bundle for a crappier bundle. paramount plus is hiking the streaming prices.

showtime will rise $1. $12.99 a month. existing subscribers to the basic package won't pay more. streaming services, including nbc's peacock and warner bros. max have announced price hikes. you need a bundle. >> you need a bundle of bundles. >> how many do you need? you need six or seven. a football game on a thursday. >> i have four bundles. four streaming services. >> right. you replace the cable bundle. >> i still have cable. i'm a sucker. >> so am i. i still like my cable. >> i like my news. how will i watch you in the morning? on the big screen. >> that's scary. high def.

goldman sachs with a buy rating for comcast. neutral rating for discovery. that's shocking being a $7 stock. a sell rating for paramount global. novo nordisk will spend billions to build a manufacturing plant in north carolina to boost the drug wegovy and ozempic. the facility will be responsible for filling injection pens for the drugs. construction has begun and expected to be mccocompleted in7 and 2029. coming up, the cdk cyberattack has hit dealerships across the country and continues. a reminder, you can get the best of "squawk box" with squawk

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cdk, a company that provides software for thousands of auto dealerships across the u.s. and canada expects its systems to go back online in the comes days after the cyberattack disrupted the businesses. let's turn to teresa payton, former white house chief operational officer. now security fund fortiliss. it's a little structure. did you know that? >> i did. >> the latest book is "inside

the cyber war." it's good to see you. you point out this may be the worst summer ever for this. i don't know if we're getting better at dealing with it, but they're getting better at orchestrating these things. the bad guys. >> you're right about that. this is definitely, if not the biggest summer, a big summer for ransomware siyndicates. they have gone after third-party advocates before. they are changing the tactics. hopefully this is a wake-up call. hopefully they will have their systems up and running shortly. all have to ask if they have one single point of failure, a vendor is out of commission for more than a day, what does that mean to your own operations?

hopefully everybody is looking at this and saying what is our incident response play look like and if we had a vendor out of commission for more than a day, what does that look like for us? >> that doesn't solve how we prepare for try to prevent something like this from happening. there are steps companies need to take, obviously, there are, because this keeps happening. what are the key things short of just making ransom impossible to pay? can you do that? does that mean that operations will be shutdown for weeks or months? >> no, you bring up a great point. such a great question. there are steps that businesses can take in advance. we don't know yet what the point of intrusion was for cdk global. chances are we may never get the full details because they used to be the publicly traded

company. under s.e.c. rules, they would have to tell us. they are a private company. they have a french support lineup. under the gdp rules, they may need to report what happened. we can learn from other businesses impacted. a couple of key things. one, multifactor authentication every chance you can use it. this means more than user id and password. have the pass books. this highlights the gaps in the security posture that you can then go back and fix. third, be looking at things like do we look at our log-ins or do we look at anomolous behaviors? those are tougher to do. the easier things to do is looking for the multifactor authentication and keeping systems up to date as possible and training employees, despite

all of the money businesses spend on cybersecurity, sometimes the employees are the last line of defense. teaching them how to spot sophisticated social engineering attacks in mails and phone calls and text messages and links in attachments can go a long way from preventing the incident from happening in the first place. >> when you think of the notable impacts, not just cdk, but the heal healthcare industry. there are fingerprints that identify a certain country or any information about the bad actors involved? >> we don't know a whole lot about cdk global. we know ransomware syndicates come from the eastern european countries. we talked about russia and china in some of the attacks in the

past. north korea and iran, not as much with ransomware, but they tipped their hand there. some of the cyber criminals that run ransomware are not affiliated with nation states or governments. they consider themselves entrepreneurs and they pay for performance. you play by the rules and you have things you have do and things you have to follow. cyber criminals will spend up and get the operation going and hire anybody. they outsource the work. i noticed with cdk global, they mentioned they were hit twice. that sometimes is the did not feel they were getting enough attention so they hit a second time. that may be the left hand may not know what the right hand is doing, so we hit a second time.

we have more questions than answers on cdk global. what people need to take away from this, it has never been cheaper, easier or faster to spin up your own ransomware syndicate. they could be criminal ransomware syndicates. >> that's usually the way it is handled. it's that simple. they pay up. >> i would like to help companies think through strategies so they're not in that terrible decision process of feeling it. it does happen. it's unfortunate. >> the state department, i mean, did you see this? the hive ransomware gang. i'm thinking a movie. it sounds cloak and dagger. you can make hundreds of millions of dollars from this

from eastern european locations that all sound so cloak and dagger-ish. these are all criminals. are people getting murdered that know things? i guess anything you can imagine is happening with these gangs. >> you are spot-on there. it sounds like the thing of hollywood movies. it is not fiction any more, it's facts. when we pay the ransomware don you are funding. weapons or human trafficking. we would love to tell businesses, if you have not reached out to your fbi office, they can help you. it doesn't cost you money. they can help you think through your ransom strategies. when you are a victim, they can tell you how the syndicates treat the victims.

whether or not they keep their word, remember, they're criminals here. i love to see the businesses not pay at the end of the day. >> theresa payton, fortlice, thank you. coming up, we will talk to representative jodey arrington and then andrew will talk to tom wilson at the aspen festival. we'll be right back. or some-thi [ a.i. copilot ] glad you called, j. [ a.i. copilot ] it's time for an upgrade. awesome. ♪ ♪ [ inner monologue ] i knew what i had to do. because they never stop. no time to waste. this isn't sci-fi. this is precision ai.

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the congressional budget office raised this year's

federal budget deficit to $400 billion. the spike can be blamed on four sources of government spending, including student debt forgiveness and the supplemental spending package. our next guest says the findings are more dire than expected. joining us now is budget committee chairman jodey arrington. good morning. >> good morning. >> you talk about a primary driver, 138 executive actions issued by president biden, largely responsible for getting the deficit now up to almost 7% in an economy that's working and growing to some extend, at least gdp wise. that's unheard of. the executive actions. student loan was a major part of it? the vote buying or whatever you want to call it?

>> leading up to this point, you've had trillions of dollars in legislative actions that were purely partisan, what covid or flx reduction act. the unlateral executive actions, the cost there is $2 trillion. one-third of which, to your point, is the student loan bailout. so, we're now at the highest level of annual deficit which has been revised upwardly by $400 billion over the last four months. it's the hevel of annual deficit of the history of our country in peace -time deficit. here on an unsustainable tract and we have the highest level of indebtedness as a nation surpassing world war ii levels in debt. i think one of the big under appreciated factors is the cost to service the debt has tripled. i'm talking interest on the debt

which has tripled under president biden. 150% increase since he took office. now we're spending more in interest, joe, than we're spending on the national defense in the greatest country of the world and it is out pacing medicare now we are spending on more interest than the defense. >> mr. chairman, i can tell you that the democrats' heads are exploding right now, and they want to talk about trump and the deficit spending that his administration did, and perhaps even, you know, if he were to be re-elected, if the tax cuts do not expire, that will add significantly -- those are not paid for if they don't expire, and you can talk about that. first, i want to give you more

raw meat to talk about. we're not even factoring in the open border, the open southern bo border, and that's not in the spending there. >> well, even if you net out any positive gains in terms of employment, we certainly have a labor shortage. i don't think the open border chaos is the solution. $150 billion is the conservative estimate, and that's $9,000 per illegal immigrant in the country, and by the way that's more than we spend for military retirement benefits and more than we spend on the most vulnerable american, health care, and that's medicaid, and

that's a contributing factor. think about this. $150 billion there, and $250 billion of waste, and there are programs wasting 30 cents on the dollar, and this -- if you add it up over the budget window, it's more than the total economic output of russia. there's easy and straightforward nonpartisan things we ought to be attacking to start bringing down that deficit putting us on a more sustainable path and not loading our children up with the weight of a debt they will never get out from under. >> mr. chairman, the trump administration got hit with the pandemic, and a lot of the spending deficit spending we saw there had to do with dealing with that. democrats will immediately point to trump tax cuts and pretend that's what added to the debt,

and revenues are higher, so there's a lot of revenue coming in and there was spending, too. if he were to be re-elected, you know some of the things he wants to do with the tariffs and lowering the corporate tax rate, and how is that going to answer our inflation problems? i mean, you have to admit, it would probably make them worse, would it not, if he got to do everything he proposed? >> well, here's the thing. it's debt per gdp, and the foundation to strengthen our balance sheet and our country's fiscal future is having a growing economy. president trump gets high marks for that. the crfb, the center response for the federal budget as a $1.9 trillion score on the trump tax cuts.

they totally disregard the joint committee on taxation, the congressional budget office restoring and advising it by a trillion dollars because of record revenue. we have to grow the economy. we have to have -- by the way, it was a percent over the last, you know, several years during the obama administration, which is $3 trillion in savings or deficit reduction. you have to start with the foundation of good economic policies. you can't attack your domestic energy. you cannot regulate and tax your job creators into the ditch. you can't make us not competitive on the global stage before tax cuts, as you know our business tax rates were higher than any in the free and developed world. you have to go in tandem and address the spending driving the debt. nobody gets five gold stars or a nobel prize on spending, and you

have to pair the two, growth, reducing spending, especially on mandatory programs, health care -- >> you might get the noble peace prize, the par is -- well, talk about inflation. who is the vice president? do you know who trump will pick? >> he has a great set of folks to pick from. >> do you have a favorite? >> i like governor burgum. i like his business background and i think i like nontraditional businessmen, and if they can read a balance sheet or financial statement, and we can start there. >> i wouldn't want to look at that. thank you, we ll swiee you

again. coming up, we will talk to the cofounder of a health care start up with big backers that wants to increase access to whole body lab testing. that's next. hello. i'm ethereum.

and i'm big finance. you look really tired. just calling it a day. but it's 4 p.m. yeah, and i've been working nonstop since 9:30 this morning, so. 9:30. you don't say? yep. you'd want a little shut-eye too if you'd been moving billions around the world. well, actually, i do. you know, stablecoins, nfts, loans. people can access me 24/7. what? but look, everyone's different. you should get your rest. you'll get after it tomorrow. tomorrow's saturday. [ethereum] monday. you'll get after it again on monday. >> i had 20 years of experience as an hr professional and i had reached a ceiling, so i enrolled in umgc. i would not be the person that i am today had it not been for the partnership with umgc.

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it's just before 7:00 a.m. on the east coast. you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc. i am joe kernen along with melissa, and there she is. the european union accusing microsoft of breaching its antitrust rules by packaging its teams chat app with other business software. the regulator said microsoft's unbundling of teams is insufficient to address its

concerns. bad boy, bad people, and says more changes are needed. they are not shy, are they, about our great companies, right, smacking us around? >> it's your second tirade against the -- >> yeah. >> in one hour. "the wall street journal" says bow something now proposing using mostly stock after burning through billions of cash due to safety issues that plagued the company. there's reports boeing is offering $35 a share for spirit and that's a premium, and boeing has declined comment. julian assange is on his way to enter a plea in the u.s. court that could free him and resolve the case over the publication of classified

documents. he's scheduled to appear in court tomorrow in the northern mariana islands, which is a u.s. commonwealth. conspiracy theorists go wild on what he knows and what he might say when he's free about politicians in this country and elsewhere. interesting, is it not? >> it is. >> ilove how they keep playing the music even though you are rambling. moving you along. >> is that why? doesn't work. a lot of other chip stocks have been battered over the last couple of days, and nasdaq opened up 94 points, and the dow turned it around and is now up 13. let's get to dom chu with a look at the premarket movers. >> we have a slate of interesting analyst calls out today for tuesday morning movers. we will start with the media side of things with shares of

disney, and cnbc parent company, comcast. they are citing things like disney's strength in content and sports right, and comcast, strengthening in cash flow and the return of that to shareholders, and then fox with a buffered mote for entertainer. keep it on the media space, on the goldman initiation. let's move to retail now. gap stores, roughly 15,000 shares of premarket trading company. and also banana republic and old navy is getting upgraded from buy to hold and the price target goes up 2 bucks to $30 a share. they are calling their stock one of the best ideas citing things like the upcoming back-to-school shopping season.

we will end with big tech, specifically nvidia which is trying to find some stability after the 13% drop in the last week or so after the record highs, and that has removed 30 billion of market value, and also new this morning, analysts at bank of america added nvidia to the best of read list which looks at businesses with good business models, and by the way, for more on those and other top analyst calls of the day, guys, head over to cnbc.com. i will send things back over to you and joe. >> i'll take it. today a platform that provides more than 100 lab tests announced the closure of the

funding. the funds will help expand testing technology. notable investors include matt damon. joining us, the medical chief officer. good to have you with us. >> good to be here. >> looks like your tester would be a high hypo con tkrae ac. >> we need it because it's not just for that, it's the entire american population, and we have two or more illnesses and the life expectancy is going down, and it's $4.5 trillion, and we are getting sicker, and so we

have a huge need, and plus people need to have agency over their health and it's the first health platform of their kind, and this let's you go under the skin and look under the hood and see what is going on. >> everything happens was get older. crazy stuff. >> yeah, we had one young man who was 44 years old, and he has a family with kids and seemed healthy but turned out he had prostate cancer, and the tests picked it up and he was fine. >> you are not claiming to do the testing in the single drop of blood, are you? i have heard this before. >> no, no, no. >> this is real? >> we use labs, which is the testing partner, and there's 15 minutes in the lab, and it's -- >> how much?

>> $499, and it gives you access to over 110 bi-markers on your test, and we are finding out things we didn't know. 89% have poor metabolic health, and all of these things affect health and on the transition from wellness to illness. we want to intervene early. i am a doctor, and i wanted to treat people once they got sick, and we want to know what is going on in the early transmissions, and the technology to health care is novel and allows us to access biology -- >> if ai -- we were talking about that earlier, how the promise is coming but not here yet and it will be great for this, whether it be 500 markers eventually?

>> sure. we are adding more and more test all the time. there's so much in your biology. you get 20 tests maybe a year, and there are thousands of molecules in your body that need to be tracked over time to see what is going on with your health trajectory, and now we are able to measure these things. we are able to track all of your bio markers -- >> you need a different marker for each cancer, also we can find one -- >> what is exciting, we offer testing called gallery, and it looks at different 50 cancers, the false positive rate is less than half a percent, and that picks up a year to three earlier than any other screening test and it's something everything should have screening, and we are seeing of the people that joined function and did the

gallery test, 1 in 88 have a positive cancer test, and it would save billions if we can address it early on. >> do insurance companies pay for it? >> not yet, and you have to understand it's a value proposition for them, and we believe we are at the center of the value based care for insurance. >> thank you for coming by. can the fed take its time taming inflation? jason furman thinks so and he will join us to explain. and then later, early detection and health care company grail going public today. the ceo will join us today. "squawk box" will be right back.

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can the fed hit its 2% inflation target and when? steve liesman joins us now and shows the answer that is somewhere between the end of the year and maybe never, steve. >> melissa, math is hard and inflation math for the fed trying to hit a 2% target is proving to be harder, still. an analysis of an inflation path shows the economy has to be lousy or perfect for the fed to hit the target with even a slight permanent rise of the prepandemic level, the fed may never hit the target and that creates a series of hard choices for the central bank. average core inflation running from .13 to .14 annually, and

then by contrast, you can see the low in the period during the cite financial crisis, .09. we modeled recession, and it would drop inflation to around the 2% target at the end of the year, at the prepandemic average at 4.15, it would take us until the end of the year. but the fed never gets there. of course, there are those who say we are just not going back to the prepandemic world because of deglobalization, tariff wars and government spending and high labor cost that might continue. the fed choices in that world include keeping rates high and even hiking and causing a recession to get there, and only modest cuts while remaining

higher than neutral, or accepting a higher rate. the fed could change its metric. it notes it only needs confidence that inflation is moving towards 2%, but it will likely cite other than core inflation. it may need to choose one or the other unless the u.s. economy finds its prepandemic inflation mojo, melissa. >> seems like how could that possibly be the case? would it be perceived, steve, that the fed would be -- what was the term you used, eating crow, if it went back on 2%. >> even crow prices are up in this economy. >> well, the crow manufacturing has been near short, so in the future crows would be manufactured and processed here in the united states opposed to

china or vietnam. >> but it tastes like chicken. here's the thing. just a recap. .1 kind of recessionary levels, you can get there. .15 prepandemic level, you can get there, and .2, you can't get there, but that's not a big inflation problem. you asked me about the eating crow thing, melissa, and it's so difficult because you take a $22 trillion economy and try and split the small hole in thereof exactly prices rising .15. if you go to a change and you can say we are at or near we need to be and you don't have to worry about it. >> why not just let the go of 2%? they have searched for the flexibility in every form of communication they have had, so why not this one, too?

>> the core is supposed to be .1 on friday. all of the story, melissa, came from a question to the chair, who, when i asked him, why are you at 2.8 at the end of the year, and the fed doesn't -- i don't think it can see the .1s and .15s, and is looking at .2 and inflation going up, and the core partly cloudy number going up by the end of the year. >> steve, thanks. steve liesman. jason furman is here, and you are not in your pod, not in one of those storage units? >> i flew here so we didn't have to talk about my backdrop, and here we are talking about it. can we just talk about crows? >> when we used to have you on, we were not distracted when you were in the pod because there was nothing behind you,

whatsoever. jason wrote a piece, and he's a professor of the harvard school, and president obama, wasn't it, i think? >> yeah. >> jason, i kind of feel what you are saying here, because steve just said we don't want to choose between one or the other. so if we take our time a little, maybe we get it under control but we don't go far enough to where we actually cause a recession or a big rise in unemployment. is that what you are thinking? >> i hope so. look, we have a skewed set of risks on inflation right now. nobody knows what is going to happen. i thought steve's analysis is terrific and it's not like he had a crystal ball, but ask me, are we going to haveinflation below 1.5%? that's extremely unlikely. are we going to have inflation

about 3%, and that's likely. you have a skewed set of risks on inflation and that's why the fed can't cut rates quite yet. >> i have seen both sides argued about whether 3% is really bad or whether it's kind of okay, and when you have this much debt, it helps a little because future dollars aren't worth quite as much that you are paying down the debt with, but overtime when you compound an additional percentage point, it really does hurt people and the purchasing power of things when they go to the grocery store, so i am not sure. is three okay? permanently? >> if we had higher price inflation, and you would have an inconvenience of a yardstick shifting all the time? >> you are not saying inflation

is not bad? >> no, it's not the straight purchasing power but the inconvenience and the distribution between lenders and borrowers, and personally i would push for a target between 2 and 3, and i would like us -- >> that would be a goal post move. >> they shift the goal post every five years, and if they are going to hit the target i would like them to hit it from below and be comfortably in that range before they declare it. at a minimum, shift the target from 2.0 to 2. >> we had roger on, and i am sure you worked with him. >> a good friend. >> great guy. we had a discussion about how much revenue historically we usually raise, and he was saying -- i guess he was going back to his golden years with clinton when it really was 19%, and overtime since 1923, --

2023, and we are spending 24% right now and it's not going to go down. is that a spending issue, is it not? it's not a taxing issue, it's a spending issue. >> it's a both issue. >> why is it both? it's 18%, and we are bringing in what we have always brought in, but we are spending 24. >> are you saying because we have an older population, we are all going to get less. you have to do a combination of more taxes. it's more expensive to deal with the government we have now. fen the government was super efficient -- >> we are just stuck at 24%. >> no, we can bring the spending down and bring the revenue up. politically, that's the right recipe. you have a lot of republicans in congress, a lot of your friends in congress, joe, are talking about even the corporate tax

rate going up. >> i think that's a mistake. >> that's just between us. >> mitch mcconnell is -- or not mitch, but romney is still a republican, but, you know, he's not -- >> well, you have jason smith, the chair of the ways and means committee. we will have to make tough choices on both sides of the ledger. >> corporate taxes at 6 or 7% of the revenue, that's where you want togo? >> i wouldn't mind going there, but there's lot of things i would do. i would reform the tax code more comprehensively and give businesses more incentive in exchange for a higher rate. that's all sorts of smart and creative things we can do. >> don't you feel out of touch with the current administration? all the things you are saying are clinton-type of things and

you are moving way to the center from -- you want to do unrealized gains, jason? >> i think they have a clever plan for that. >> clever, that sounds devious. >> you know, but we can still love free trade. you do, don't you, or no? >> you guys love tariffs as much as the other side at this point. >> i am not a side. >> neither am i. and neither is andrew. what else? anything else you want to close on that we didn't get through the 33 trillion? >> i was just in europe, and boy, are they jealous of the united states. >> yeah, they are suing all of our companies. >> they are jealous of our companies, our stock market and economic growth, the strength of the country. there's something really quite good going on here even if i problem about all the problems -- >> yeah, and that's a pushback on you and your friends trying to take us to a euro-style

economy. >> i want us to have an american-style economy, joe. >> good to have you on in the studio. see, it's better. >> yeah, i will come here whenever you ask. >> seriously? >> well, probably not. >> you didn't like the tsa either out of logan. no fun. >> i love logan, one of the best airports, small and easy. >> you have to go -- >> much closer than laguardia. anyway, good to see you, jason. still to come, we are just two weeks out from cnbc's big reveal the top states for business, and how that plays into attracting business. futures this morning are pointing to a higher open. nasdaq looking at 95. we'll be right back. as i work my way op the ladder at the department of defense, what i found with each

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google reportedly creating new ai powered chat bots based on youtube and celebrity influencers, and is also working on a feature by describing appearance and personality, and that's similar to tools offered by startups such as character ai, and meta already has chat bots on celebs. coming up, a huge year for federal money, and businesses and states are lki aoongt incentives. scott cone joins us from one of the states taking advantage of the programs. "squawk box" will be right back. : our award-wining trading platforms ♪♪ unlock support from the schwab trade desk—

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revealing the top states for business for 2024. huge amounts of federal money is flowing to the states, and scott is in wisconsin where they know a few things about big government subsidies, and smuch of it not good. hey, scott. >> reporter: joe, we are in racine county, in wisconsin, 30 miles south of milwaukee and not far from here where it's probably raining pretty hard right now is what former president trump described as the eighth wonder of the world, a $10 million manufacturing mecca, and that as we know know, did not happen. now in wisconsin, they have a different plan and this one they say is different. wisconsin is home to one of 31 so-called tech hubs under the chips and science act which is far more than semiconductors.

>> we are predicting 30,000 jobs in ten years and $9 billion in economic development. >> wisconsin's focus is on bio health, health care diagnostics and treatment, and it's literally trying to cure cancer. >> this is an emerging field, very promising to make a real difference in patients' lives and the lives of their families. >> wisconsin could collect up to $70 million in grant money as a tech hub funding a consortium of companies and research institutions already here. wendy harris that leads the effort says that's the biggest difference between this and the last attempt to turn america's dairy land into a tech mecca with foxconn. >> these are companies successful and are bonding together. >> the former governor said it's a different approach to economic development. >> this is not about giving money to any particular company.

that's a big way in which this tech hub company is different from incentivizing an individual company, and it's about investing in underlying expertise these companies have. >> reporter: if the bio health hub is successful, it won't have any effect in this county, and not initially, but there are glimmers of hope. microsoft is taking over the site, and they will take what they can get. can you read more about that about whiz after foxconn, and you will be able to see where your straight ranks at topstates @cnbc.com. >> can't you just tell us? i mean, we have done this -- >> reporter:

>> no. >> every year, i mean, just break with tradition. >> don't you love the clues? >> i do. >> yeah, i look forward to that every year. >> is it the same as last year. >> reporter: you would be so let down if i told you. is it the same as last year? >> what was last year? was it virginia? >> reporter: last year was north carolina, last two years was north carolina, and if i told you it would be the same, then i would be telling you. >> the last two years was north carolina. are you going to tell us what you changed to make it not north carolina this year? can you tell us that? >> reporter: well, the big change this year, joe, is that infrastructure has come to the top of our category list, so the more weight is now on infrastructure last year, and last year was workforce, so that's definitely changing things. we have a lot more in the mix this year with all that federal

money and with ai and the insurance prices. a lot of really interesting things going on this year that do shake things up. i will tell you that. >> really? wow. could be a new winner. or will be a new winner. all right, thanks, scott. i was not serious. i knew you wouldn't -- >> you had to try, right? let's get a check on the futures now. looking at a higher open for the s&p and nasdaq. more on the rkmaets after the break. later, deputy treasury secretary, wally adeyemo, will join us. "squawk box" will be right back.

90% of the employees have at least experimented with ai at work, and given that number what are the biggest hurdles companies will be facing? >> whether or not you know, the employees are helping them work today. they are doing so in such a way that protects key data and proprietary information. >> how are you helping them make that shift? >> we are helping them understand the key technology requirements so they can deploy gen ai in a safe way, and key optimization targets. we also doing this for ourselves in addition. >> what are you doing at ey that is working that you are sharing with your clients? >> we are a global organization, and it's been complex to do

this. we have been on a journey to employ gen ai across the employee base and then use it to augment the way we do work. one good example is our developer capability. we generated with ai a source code and we are getting a massive uplift in productivity and speeding up our time to market. >> thank you so much. the dow riding a five-session winning streak. for more on that and where you should be taking your money to work, and for more on that, let's bring in jj. i know we are seeing a little

relief in the sepl mis this morning, namely nvidia and broadcom, but are you worried about what we have seen recently? >> no, and actually the nvidia story has been incredible and the moves overall, and the one thing i have seen out of our clients on the tastytrade side is this, the wild bullishness we saw has certainly settled down, nvidia and apple, particularly, just so much bullish activity for weeks. in the last two weeks, we have seen our clients back off that. the one stock that i would say that has been a leader in the clubhouse has been meta. that's been something that i found very interesting overall. i actually think it's healthy, to be honest with you, that nvidia has sort of backed off a little bit. we were becoming so reliant on one stock. i will say that i think

psychologically, nvidia still matters. one of the things about the 13% selloff they have seen recently, that i do think is a healthy stat, melissa, and the s&p only moved down 1% in that time. that, to me, shows although psychologically we are dependent on nvidia, overall people are still buying stocks under the surface. >> we were just talking about that on "fast money" last night, that once nvidia rolls over the markets will follow suit. in terms of where we should see the leadership, we like financials and do you think they will pick up the torch in the broadening of the markets? >> one of the stocks where we have seen the bullish activity certainly taking place, and in fact, in bank of america, almost 80% of the activity we have seen over the last week and a half has been bullish. you saw yesterday some of the rulings under the financial

stocks benefitting from that, and goldman sachs and jpmorgan and wells fargo, and if that starts to pick things up that would be fantastic and that may sound ironic in the fact people are talking about a rate cup and thinking the financials could pick up the torch, but if we have a rate cut before the end of the year, the one thing it may help is the property market overall. to me right now that is the biggest worry. we are starting to see the areas that were red hot, the floridas and texas and phoenixes of the world, and obviously the corporate -- i was going to state corporate housing market, but where we see office buildings and et cetera, and that's the area people are nervous about, and perhaps a rate cut could get people buying some of those. >> are you seeing a pickup in

interest among your traders in bio tech? we have seen a few gainers that have caught attention? i wonder if that's reigniting interest in bio tech? >> yeah, and the one area where you are starting to see people certainly participate over the last few weeks, and so that would also be another area, melissa, if we could get going would be incredible. you start to think about bio tech combining that with what is possible in ai, and it could be an amazing combination if those two could come together. again, all we are looking for right now is any other area to sort of light the flame, if you will, to keep the rally going right now. i just think that we have been so dependent on the nvidias and apples and metas of the world, and for bio tech to come forward or we just discussed finances,

and that could be the big thing to help the market overall and get the other indices to come up. >> jj, thanks. >> great to see you. coming up, the fast-food pricinwa ig rsn full swing. in the next hour, all state ceo will join andrew, and that interview and much more from the rockies is straight ahead. yep. little shut-eye too if you'd been moving billions around the world. well, actually, i do. you know, stablecoins, nfts, loans. people can access me 24/7. what? but look, everyone's different. you should get your rest. you'll get after it tomorrow. tomorrow's saturday. [ethereum] monday. you'll get after it again on monday. >> university of maryland global campus is a school for real life, one that values the successes you've already achieved. earn up to 90 undergraduate credits for relevant experience and get the support you need from your first day to graduation day and beyond. what will your next success be?

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after weeks of hype, mcdonald's is finally serving its limited time $5 value meal, and it comes as fast-food rivals wendy's and burger king launched $5 meals as well. and andy, great to have you with us. >> good morning. thanks for having me. >> are they going to gain customers from this? i mean, is it only going to last as long as the promotions are on? >> well, we really believe this

is a positive shift for mcdonald's to get back to a sharper price point and obviously back it with the national muscle and marketing advertising that the brand possesses in a bigger way than anybody else out there. yeah, we do believe that this will stem the tide of what has been a difficult traffic environment recently for mcdonald's and start to get things going again in the second half. >> do you think mcdonald's waited too long? it got to the point where the mcdonald's u.s. president had to issue a letter addressing the perception mcdonald's hiked their prices higher than inflation, and once you get to that point and you are the poster child of high prices on social media, that's a tough spot to be in for mcdonald's. >> or misperception to some extent. yes, there has been a lot of pricing from mcdonald's in the

category and others outside of fast-food even advertised against that. remember, mcdonald's, as a brand historically has been the everyday value leader. i think they still maintain that leadership position. it's just that the gap to the competitors narrowed as mcdonald's probably did rely too long and too much on deals through the app and the rewards program, which has been very, very positive for them but not as impactful and influential as what national television advertising will do with a $5 price point in our perspective. >> we mention at the top of the introduction to you, andy, the other fast-food chains qsrs offering the $5 price point, and starbucks which is offering a $5 pairings member and also an occasional 50% off your drink, and those are deep discounts

there? >> historically we think this time around we have duncan saopler survey work recently, and the lower end does continue to struggle but will be prompted by price and promotions, and so we think mcdonald's will probably put a little hurt on some of the other national qsr players mentioned earlier, maybe a wendy's or burger king, and taco bell happens to score strongly on value, and we will have a good second half as well. in terms of starbucks, yeah, they are struggling. we are cautious on that stock at this point. they are clearly dealing and trying to find some answers to some of their challenges in the u.s., but, you know, i think there's still a lot of work to be done to increase frequency and drive traffic, you know, which was down in the mid single digits in the most recent quarter for starbucks. >> andy, thank you. >> have a good morning. coming up, grail, the health

care company focused on early cancer detection going public on the nasdaq today, and the ceo joins us after the break or before that first trade. microsoft hit with another antitrust violation over teams. that story and other corporate headlines coming up. we'll be right back. are you interested in safeguarding your investments with gold? alamos gold is a growing canadian gold producer with a long track record of outperformance. alamos gold. invest with us. >> i had 20 years of our growth sets us apart.

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company focused on early cancer detection going public on the nasdaq today, following its spin-off from alumna. joining us now is bob ragrusa, grail ceo. we were just talking off-camera, it's fascinating about how this wo works. we talked to someone earlier and pointed out how many different cancers there are, and they all have different mechanisms, a different sequence of serial mutations over a period of years, they may act in different ways. i was trying to get at, if you're detecting 50 different types of cancers with one test, there must be something that's conserved in all of those cancers that is a marker for you. and you, it is methilation, you said. >> in one of the early days, we did one of the largest unbiased studies to understand, what is the best way to detect cancer from the blood. and we looked at everything and

found that methilation was the most sensitive technique to be able to tell whether or not there was a cancer signal there and localize where the cancer is coming from. >> and you say you do it all in the same test. so i can see how you would say, okay, there's abnormal methilation here, but i don't know how you can say, it's liver cancer. how does the second part work? >> it's the same chemistry test. you take a blood drive, do a chemistry test and look to see if there's a cancer signal. that same methilation pattern says the area where it's abnormally methilated came from a liver cell, came from a kidney cell. so you're able to determine, not only that you have cancer, but where the most likely cancer is. >> will this work on solid tumors, on blood, on lymphoma, on leukemias, they're all methilated? >> yes, very much so.

>> what cancers, serious cancers do not involve methilation? any? >> so they all involve methilation. the one that we rely on the fact that tumors shed dna into the blood. and so the one that doesn't do that because of the blood/brain barrier is brain cancer. >> you can't get at it. >> but all the others that have access to the blood. >> how much does it cost, how often should someone have this? >> the list pricefor the test is $949. we're recommending annually. all the best data and modeling we have to date shows that annual testing will be the best. >> and everybody should do it, except for medicare and medicaid, are they going to say, no problemo, $9,000 a year for everybody? >> what's interesting is we launched the -- we got approval for the reach study, which is 50,000 people in the medicare population over three years. so medicare is looking to do the study to be able to get evidence

in the medicare population itself. importantly, medicare is interesting enough that we'll be paying for the test and the workup -- >> a lot cheaper than dealing with chemo and everything else for five years. >> this is not an fda-approved test, correct? it's a lab-approved test, or lab-based test, i think is what you call it. >> so we have a breakthrough designation from the fda, and it's operating under a lab-developed test and we're in a pma process to get full fda approval of our pma. >> as far as cash positioning, well, as part of the spin-off, you're getting $775 million from alumna, correct? >> we'll end up with close to $1 billion on our balance sheet. >> close to $1 billion. and that's enough for fda approval and a ramp in manufacturing, eventually, once you get approval. >> the great news is over the last several years, we've taken the opportunity to really de-risk the business. so we've not only run our

pathfinder study that shows that we can detect twice as many cancers as standard of care screening, but we've also launched our first of its kind cancer-related detection test gallery. we've been able to already generate over 180,000 commercial results, and we've set up partnerships with over 100 commercial partners across self-insured employers, life insurance, and health systems. >> will fda approval move the needle in terms of reimbursement by health care providers? will that be significant? >> absolutely. so for the long game here is to get broad reimbursement. the tams here are noenormous. wo we have over 100 million people at evaluated risk in the u.s., another 19 million in the uk, another 169 million in the eu and 49 million in japan. really large numbers. in order to unlock that in the u.s., we need to get fda

approval and we believe we have alignment with the fda on the two key registrational studies, which is pathfinder two, which we've enrolled 30 of 35,000 people already, and the nhs gallery study, which is 140,000 people. we've already gone through three years, we're -- next month, we'll do the last blood draws and study visits for those. and study will read out in 2026. >> we don't want to throw away all of our technology of imaging, because once you find out where you've got it, you have to do all that other stuff to try to get rid of it, right? >> importantly, we localize it. and physicians know if you know, you think it's a kidney, liver, lung, they know the imaging neen anywhere -- >> but kidney, it could be in your brain it's not necessarily in the kidney. >> no, it localizes, it will say, you have liver cancer. >> and where it is. >> yes. so if you get like a head and

neck signal, it will localize and they'll know the techniques. >> but it's still using conjunction with a lot of imaging stuff, right? >> it's a first step. so it drives you to know that you need to get imaged. >> i saw many, many "wall street journal" op-eds about how ill-conceived all the regulatory issues between alumna and grail and that didn't need to be done. you're coming out, it's finished, it's done, you're looking forward, not looking back. was it a mistake? >> no, we're really looking forward. we had the -- as grail, we were held separate during that entire time. literally, the two management teams, the two companies operated separately. and so we were able to do all of these things to de-risk the business. >> was it over regulation in terms of -- should it have been okay for alumna to incorporate grail completely? >> yeah, i think you'll have to ask alumna with that. >> so just the bottom line, your

readout will be 2026, so the soonest est fda approval could happen some time in 2026? >> all the registrational studies will be done and we'll submit in first half of 2026. we anticipate -- because we anticipate being the first multi-cancer early-detection test to be submitted to the fda and the first ones to be approved. and based on that, we think it will be an advisory board, an advisory committee at the frda, so about a one-year process, so hopefully early 2027. >> on her show, she looks at them and says, buy it -- or when will it be through? >> these are the things people need to know. and if you want your health insurance company to cover it, you should know it too. >> i want to know how it works and whether it can really -- >> well, we're at different points in life, you know what i mean? different priorities. bob, thank you. good luck. >> thank you, appreciate it. >> we'll be watching today. it is a little before 8:00

a.m. on the east coast and you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm melissa lee along with joe kernan. becky is off today and andrew ross sorkin joins us from the aspen idea festival in colorado. hello, andrew. >> hello, hello. >> among today's top stories, federal reserve governor michelle bohman says it is not yet time to start lowering interest rates and she said that she would be open to raising rates if inflation does not pull back. bohman making those comments and prepared remarks at her speech in london. the european union accusing microsoft of breaching anti-trust rules with what it's calling abusive bundling of its teams and office products. this action echos one that regulators took yesterday against apple. microsoft could face fines of up to 10% of its global revenue. and we'll end with a stock that we've been watching very closely, and that is nvidia. shares are pod this morning. a bit of a bounce back. they've been down for three days in a roy, including falling close to 7% yesterday. the move has helped nvidia relinquish the title of world's

most valuable company. andrew? >> good morning, good morning. i'm here ins saspen again at th aspen ideas festival. in the next hour, we'll be speaking with all-state ceo tom wilson, we'll be talking about inflation, insurance, and so much more. and later, actor griffin dunne will be here. he just published a memoir about his family, a remarkable story about his experience making movies on and off the screen. one of the great character actors. we'll have mustafa soleman from openai, john legend. onm john manchin and his daughter will be here speaking. before we do dthat, a quick chek of the futures.

4.215, the two-year at 4.723. meantime, let's get over to dom chu with a look at this morning's pre-market movers. >> let's catch you up on some of the notable analyst calls out so far. we'll start with the electric vehicle side of things in shares of rivian, which are down -- or now up about 2%, just around 200,000 shares of trading volume. their getting help from the team at guggenheim with a buy rating, and an $18 price target. they cite amongst other things, optimism over the r-2 and r-3 sport utility vehicle models and being a more notable beneficiary of any potential protectionist policy iies in the united state over foreign-made imports. next up, a look at capri holdings, which are higher by just over about 2% right now, at about 10,000 shares of volume. this is the apparel company behind fashion brands like michael coors, versace, jimmy choo and others. it's getting upgraded, but

they're citing the value and the brand portfolio overall, even if its proposed purchase by tapestry does not come to fruition because of pooetential anti-trust hurdles. capri holdings is up 2%. and we'll end with a check on penn entertainment, which is down roughly 2.5% at this point, about 9, 10,000 shares of volume. the casino and online gambling operator is facing headlines in part due to raymond james, which is downgrading sthook from a market perform to a prior outperform. they think shares are appropriately valued given the recent run-up in the stocks since early may, and they believe there are better opportunities in the gaming space like cesar's, their top picks. by the way, for more on those and other top analyst calls of the day, head over to cnbc.com/pro, subscribers there, melissa, can get more access to detail and analysis behind those calls. i'll send things back over to you. >> thank you, dom chu. for more on the markets and the

economy, let's bring in jason trennert. you're bullish until the bill comes due. >> right. >> what does that mean? >> that means that we've avoided recession at all costs by running budget deficits that are 7% of gdp, which is unheard of when you're at full employment. the problem with that is that there's a cost to avoiding a recession at all costs, and that's inflation. professor mundell, nobel laureate said policy makers can either control inflation, interest rates, or the current, but you can't control all three at the same time. and eventually, just the amount of -- the sheer amount of supply that we're issuing in terms of treasury securities, in my opinion, is going to drive up long-term interest rates. or if you don't do that, you're going to drive up inflation. so it's hard to have it both ways, and where there's a little bit of like an approach to what we're doing, in terms of the fiscal policy of this country right now.

>> so you think that long-term rates are going to be higher, it sounds like -- >> yeah. >> because of the issuance that we have and the bills we have to pay. >> just based on issuance. interest expense now will be higher than defense spending. interest expense will be higher next year than medicare. and so this is extraordinarily unusual. that's never happened before. and to make matters worse, we've funded everything short. 55% of our debt matures in the next three years. the weighted average cost of our debt is well below any part of the yield curve right now. so interest expense, again, unless the fed decides to buy treasuries again is going to be meaningfully higher next year than it is now. >> it's target to come around to the way you're thinking. in recent months, it just doesn't feel to me like any of this is organic. it feels like it's all government sort of -- the liquidity, the amount of money we spent on all of these tips, inflation reduction, all of this stuff that's sloshing around,

but the way the market goes up every day, there's all of this liquidity. but it doesn't -- unless ai is real, it doesn't seem like it's based on any productivity. >> yeah, and joe, the way out of this is productivity. so i would say, when you have a debt situation like this, there's -- you either -- you inflate your way out of it, you take some sort of hit austerity wise, raise taxes -- >> none of that. >> our grow your way out of it. >> that's not going to happen. >> the only thing is, joe, what i worry about is, i don't doubt ai is a productivity enhancement or mounjaro or whatever it is. that could do it. but the problem is, those technologies will probably take longer than the bill -- the bill will arrive sooner than the productivity gains, in my opinion, that you'll see from ai and all the rest. and i want to say, i'm not bearish on the stock market, because -- >> but it's not for a good reason. >> you're fighting everyone, you're fighting fiscal policy now and then you'll be fighting

monetary policy. >> and a bill comes, you know it's going to say 23% -- it's going to have a thing -- everywhere you go, you have to -- >> well, listen, and i think there's a variety of structural reasons why inflation, i think -- >> have you seen that? >> what? >> people that don't do anything and give you that thing -- >> even when you're serving yourself -- >> and you feel bad. >> i don't know. you just say no? >> some guy might spit in my coffee, but i'm willing to take that chance. >> it's hot coffee. it's hot. it'll kill it off. dis jason, great to see you. >> thank you for having me. appreciate it. >> so they won't let anything slow down before november? >> before the election, in my opinion. it's no-holds-barred. they're using every tool imaginable to keep the economy out of recession. and interest rates low. so -- thank you. >> thank you. >> coming up after this, deputy

treasury secretary wally adeyemo will join us, but first, a allstate ceo will join me live right here in aspen. stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc from aspen to times square. i can't believe you corporate types are still at it. just stop calling each other rock stars. and using workday to put finance and h.r. on one platform. tim, you are a rock star. using responsible ai doesn't make you a rock star. it kinda does. you are not rock stars. (clears throat) okay. most of you are not rock stars.

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welcome back to "squawk box." futures look very similar to what we've been seeing most of the morning. nasdaq strong, unlike the past couple of sessions, bitcoin is higher today, and on a pretty good move there. over 3% now, back above 61,000 now, andrew. >> thanks, joe. meantime, i'm in aspen at the aspen ideas festival here. nbc universal group is a media partner, and joining me right now to talk insurance rates, inflation, the climate, and so much more is all-state ceo, tom wilson, who has been coming to this event for how many years

now? >> 19 years. 19 years. so we've been having a great debate on the air for now, many a days, if not months or years, about the state of inflation and what it's doing to the business. why don't we start there before we get into insurance itself. where do you think we really are? >> inflation certainly doesn't seem to be moderating, right? there's -- you'vegot. and i don't think anybody really knows, would be my answer. nobody really understands all the economic drivers of all of the stimulus money, what's happening globally. but we're feeling like it's topped out. and so if you look at interest rates, we think interest rates are kind of where they should be. we don't know when they'll come down, but we made some good calls there, so, inflation -- >> what were those calls and what's the next call then? >> well, the first call was in 2021, '22, we got short. we went long throughout last year. and so now our investment income is way up, which is a good thing for us and our customers. so that was right.

what we also did, which was the wrong call, was we went light on public equities, the lightest we've ever been. and of course, those have rallied in the last year. but we're not like a hedge fund, like we're trying to make a mark every day. we just said, look, the risk in return trade-offs is not right for us, so we went light on public equities. we think from here, the economy is pretty balanced. we're feeling okay about the world. >> auto insurance costs. there has been inflation in the auto insurance space. is that going to modulate? >> it will come down gradually, but it's kind of interesting to me, people are all like, they're looking at the print, and saying auto insurance is way up. and it's like totally predictable. and here's why. so what happened was, used car prices went up by 60% in 2021 and 2022. what used to be 20 grand was 32 grand, and when your car gets wrecked, we have to get you a

new one. so our costs went way up, so we have to raise our prices. but the way we raise our prices, we have to get them approved by regulators first. that takes some time. secondly, we sell you a policy that lasts six months. if we bought the policy yesterday, you don't pay the higher price for six months. that's all completely mathematically predictable. and so i think you'll still see that rattle through the prints for the next year or so, but it will start coming down. >> what about the promise of self-driving cars and its relationship to insurance? do you see any connection at this point yet? >> well, cars are getting safer for sure. and andrew, i think this is like 10 or 12 years -- >> we've been talking about self-driving cars here forever. >> i think it was 10 or 12 years ago, if there's only self-driving cars, they don't get accidents, nobody will need auto insurance. so we went through all of this work, and you see cars getting smarter and having less accidents. the offset is, they've gotten a

lot more expensive. so your rearview mirror on the side, your side mirror used to be 100 bucks, now it's $900, because it has cameras in it. from an auto insurance standpoint, it hasn't impacted our bottom line at all. >> do you think it will, eventually? we're not full self-driving yet? >> i think over time, people will have less accidents and that's a good thing and then we insure other stuff. i'm not totally freaked out about it. >> this morning, we're issue a new report that you commissioned with the chamber of commerce about climate resilience. and in the report, you said, every dollar invest ed saves $1 in the after-effect. can you explain that math? >> sure. first, let me explain, why did we do? we're big believers in transitioning to a lower carbon economy, and we think there will be prosperity for companies like us who invest money in doing it. but what's not going to clang is the fact that there will be a whole bunch of catastrophes and we're not ready.

if you put $1 into a lev levee or something like that, you spent $6 in cleaning stuff up, fewer houses to fix, but you save another $7, businesses are still running, people have jobs. so we're trying to make the point that we need to not only invest in transitioning to a lower carbon economy, we need to invest in protecting people and resiliency and remediation. >> home insurance. home insurance inflation. what's going on there and what's it going to take, by the way, for you to start insuring homes in california again? >> that's a good question. first, home insurance has gone up, in part, because there's more catastrophe, more weather. but also, houses are bigger and they cost more to fix. home insurance prices are up like 13% last year. but people's houses are worth more. the -- in terms of places like california, so there are a few states, california, a little bit, louisiana, some florida, where there's no availability

for home insurance. it's a bad thing. people want to sell their houses, they want to buy houses. something happens, they want the money. and the answer is, it doesn't have to be that way. so texas has more catastrophes than other state. they have hail, straight-line winds, hurricanes, wildfires, you name it, texas has got it. and their market works. >> so what makes that market work and florida and california less attractive? >> there's a couple of things. one is that they allow us to charge more for riskier customers, which makes sense. like, you've got a house on the ocean, you should pay more. and the second thing is that the state has taken the approach for really giant catastrophes, they've created state-based funds that help us do that. florida and california -- florida did the second piece, but the first piece, they don't. and so if you won't let us charge the right amount for a high-risk customers, we have two choices. we can charge low-risk customers, not fair to them, or

we can give our shareholders money, which is not what i get paid to do. and so until we can fix those, we're going to keep doing what we do, is serve those people we can give a good price to. >> and finally, we've been batting around and there's been a huge debate here obviously about this upcoming election, there's a big watch party happening on thursday night. our member of the brt. you were at the brt meeting, i believe, with former president trump and jeff zients, as well. what can you tell us about those meetings? what did you see? >> well, first, let me start with, so all-state, we're regulated in 50 states. so we have to -- we're blue, red, doesn't matter to us, we want solutions. we're always bipartisan, whatever it takes to get something done, we will work with. we're not a partisan organization. i would say, as it relates to that meeting and people's reactions to it, and i've read most of the stuff on it, is that ceos, when they're in that chair, sitting in that room, you're not thinking about

yourself, your vote, you're thinking about, i represent all of these people. i have customers that have different views, i have employees, and so i'm here representing them. and when you look at how divided the country is, it's not surprising that people wouldn't jump up and down one way or the other. we're waiting to see, whoever turns out to be the president, we have to work with. so i think what you've got is just a normal reaction to a tightly contested election. >> we have jeff seinfeld on yesterday, who said ceos effectively walked out of that meeting and his impression was that they were not in favor of president trump, vp though 70% of them are republicans and historically have supported republicans. kueng that that's an accurate statement? >> jeff knows a lot of ceos, so maybe he's talked to people. i was not able to, by looking at peoples faces, tell what they thought. the conversations i had over lunch were really more about, what are we going to do as a

business community with whoever gets elected? because it's not really clear, and we'll get different outcomes with both. we're kind of like, okay, how do we just get done so we can serve our customers and our shareholders. so i don't think there's a burgeoning movement of ceos supporting one side or another. >> john wilson from allstate, thank you very much for being here. coming up, delta's latest flight to keep the most lucrative customers. jill lebeau is live at jfk in queens and will join us next. phil, what's on tap? >> inside the delta one lounge, this is just a peek inside of this lounge, which will be opening tomorrow. why is delta investing in an all-new top-tier lounge? because everybody wants to be in a lounge these days. we'll talk about why delta believes this is the key to keeping s stitmo lucrative customers extremely happy, when "squawk box" returns. what is cirkul? cirkul is what you hope for when

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welcome back to "squawk box." the nasdaq up by about 99 points. we are seeing a turnaround in some of the ai chip names. micron reporting earnings later this week. we're seeing a turnaround in that sector. treasuries, meantime. the ten-year yield at 4.21%. and i think we're going to take a look at bitcoin. well, bitcoin is higher, 61,000 or so, up 2-plus percent. >> almost 3. yep. delta upping the ante in the airport lounge wars. i didn't realize there were those things going on. phil lebeau is at jfk in queens. >> come on, joe! >> oh, i don't want to hang out there, unless you've got bill murray at the wings at the airport lounge. i might want to hang out a

little while. >> yeah, well, you and everybody else wants into a lounge, not just at delta, but every airline. if you fly a lot, if you are a member of a particular airline and you go to that airline's lounge, i don't care what airline it is, it's no longer as exclusive as it used to be, it is packed. so many people are going into the lounges, because so many people are flying, whether it's cause they have access to a co-branded credit card, whether they're brought in as a guest. so delta says, let's up the ante making sure our most lucrative customers are taken care of. it's only for high-valued, high-lucrative passengers. in other words, you can't buy a pass to come in here, if you're a member of the delta 360 club, which is the top tier for those who are flying a lot, you can come in here, or a delta one first class ticket, the access is capped. this is the first location here at jfk. going to be adding them at l.a.x. as well as boston logan.

the bottom line is this. this lounge takes the sky club experience and kicks it up a notch. whether it's the addition of relaxation pods, wyou have a sit-down restaurant in here, which is different than sky club's, where there's food, but not a sit-down restaurant experience, and you have the access as well as this view here. and it comes at a time, guys, when all of the airlines are looking at ways to make their most lucrative customers, keep them happy, keep them with the airline. so at a time when you're seeing more and more people fly, delta, as you take a look at shares of delta, is realizing that they need the delta one club or the delta one lounge, i should say. and we'll give you some peeks throughout day before we talk with ed bostion, ceo of delta coming up later today on "power lunch." bottom line is this, joe. this is where the beautiful people are. and i know you fancy yourself to be one of the beautiful people. so at some point, i am sure you'll be visiting this lounge

here at jfk. >> i -- i don't know if i consider myself a beautiful person, but i do go into one particular lounge, depending on -- we don't need to out anyone. i do not feel special at all, you're right. i can't find a seat -- >> they're so crowded. >> i can't find a seat. >> this is a problem. >> if i'm special, there's nobody who's not special. it's like -- if everybody has superpowers, nobody -- >> ed bostion has said that to us before. if everyone is special, then nobody is special. you can't make it access for everyone. and what delta and other airlines are going to try to do is to say, okay, we understand the appeal of our lounges, and we want our customers to have access, but you can't make it open to every single person. there's physically not enough space. and you notice that when you go into these lounges now at airports. >> and the more people there are, the more people there are sneezing on all of the buffet items without a sneeze screen,

too. >> well, there's an image for you. >> it's totally skeevy. and i don't -- i almost would rather go and just pay for something outside the -- you know, dgo to one of the restaurants, likean annie's, a sincinnabon cinnabon. i would almost rather just go and get it and wait at the gate, than go those places. >> a lot of people want access to a lounge, joe. that's why it's so important. >> the lounge lizards. i know the type. i'm glad you think i think of myself as a beautiful person, though -- >> you said, you fancy yourself -- >> you fancy yours to be one of the beautiful people. >> just what you think. >> not what everybody else -- >> thanks, phil. he does -- i think -- >> i think so. >> i think there's a little transference going on there. heal thyself. andrew? >> when we come back, deputy

treasury secretary wally adeyemo will join us live, housing affordability in america and what the white house can and can't do about it. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc from aspen to times square, we're coming right back after this. at least, not the way it could work. your people are buried in busy work. and you might be thinking... can ai make it all work? it can. on the servicenow platform, ai transforms your entire business. because when your people work better, everything works better. so, let's get to work. idris elba works here? mm-hmm. ya, he's super nice.

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welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. among today's top business stories, weight loss drugmaker novo nordisk says its popular drug wegovy got approved in china. they will spend $4 billion to build a new manufacturing plant in north carolina. this morning, the stock was up by 1.7%. apple said "no" to efforts by meta to weave its ai chat bot into the iphone, that's according to bloomberg, which says the rejection came months ago and said two companies are not currently talking about integrating meta's lama bot into a partnership. and federal judges in kansas and missouri temporarily blocking further implementation of a new student debt relief plan championed by president biden. the rulings do not block assistance that has already been

provided. the white house said it strongly disadisagreed with the decisions. janet yellen highlighting a new biden administration effort designed to make housing more accessible to americans. the investments include making a $100 million available through a new fund to help finance affordable housing over the next three years. just last week, new data showed home prices hit a record high in may. joining us now, deputy treasury secretary, wally adeyemo. mr. secretary, it's good to see you. i've got to be totally honest with you. i saw $100 million and i wondered whether i was migsssina decimal point or something. as you know, we had to raise the deficit by i think $400 billion and a third of that was student loan forgiveness. so we've got $100 and some billion for student loans but $100 million for housing? it just seemed like it didn't make any sense to me, the size.

what can we do with $100 million? >> joe, it's good to see you. and i think it's important that you're making a point that the president continues to make, is that we need more housing in this country, and one of the ways that we can incentivize that housing is with more money by the federal government. it's important to note that through the american rescue plan, we put $19 billion towards 3,000 housing projects, but we need more. and part of the reason that secretary yellin was in minneapolis yesterday is because minneapolis is doing their part and lots of cities are by changing their zoning ordinances by making it easier to build housing. the $100 million is one of several initiatives that she announced yesterday, but we need congress' help to get more money for housing. and right now there's a bipartisan proposal that's been passed through the house of representatives, sitting in the senate, that will allow us to build far more housing in order to allow us to increase supply, which is critical to affordability. you raise to point of fiscal sustainability. and there again, i think we agree with you.

the idea is that we need to have a fiscally sustainable path, and part of that is the president's proposal to raise $3 trillion of revenue to put us on that fiscally sustainable path. and we've already done some of that work in a bipartisan way, just last year, when we passed a bill working with republicans that helped save $1 trillion. so we're looking forward to doing more on both fronts, both being fiscally responsible, but also building more housing. >> definitely a setback for deficit reduction, but now that we're back to almost, you know, $2 trillion, and this is during a pretty -- you know, we're not -- we're not in a recession. so i don't know what -- it would seem like we're spending a lot. there's some residual left over, that i guess the fdic hasn't been able to collect yet on what's due for that incident from last year, and there's some other weird accounting issues in there. but nobody likes to be at $1.9 trillion in a fairly decent

growth phase of an economy. >> so, joe, i think this is exactly why the president has proposed that we increase revenues in order to bring down our debts over time. and that's why he's calling for extending middle class tax cuts up to $400,000, but ending the rest of the last administration's tax policies that added a great deal to those deficits over time. fundamentally, you have to have a plan, and i think the president has announced one that would help us save $3 trillion. and he looks forward to working with republicans to make us more fiscally responsible. >> mr. secretary, i note that there is a common theme about trump's tax cuts. but revenues are above where they were before, wildfire those tax cuts. what has outpaced that has been the spending growth. and we talk about this a lot. we've had people on the show. i think we're at, what, 17.5% or of the gdp, we're raising in

taxes, but we're spending almost 24%. and that's what's different. in the past, maybe, we've been between 17 and 19% for revenues. we're not far off of the average there, but we're way above the average of what we usually spend at 24%. but there's nowhere to cut, it seems, or at least -- you're talking about raising more revenue to continue to spend the same amount or more. nobody is talking about bringing down that 24%. >> so, joe, as you know well, part of our goal is to make sure that we have the revenues to support our economy. and part of that is making sure that we get revenues back to closer to where they were historically. it's at the low end of that, as you pointed out yourself, and part of this is looking at ways where we can cut costs as well. and i think one of the places where we know we have to think about that is when it comes to medical expenses. where america is outpacing in terms of medical spending the rest of our peers, but we're not getting better results. part of that is what we're doing in terms of precipiscription dr

but also looking at what we can do at pay for performance when it comes to the medical industry. the president is open to conversations about what we can do to reduce costs, but we all know given our demographics and need spend on a defense and our commitment to our seniors, we're going to need additional revenues in order to make sure that we're in a position where we have a fiscal sustainability going forward. we think we can do that in a pro-growth work way, and we think that's going to require us to work together in a bipartisan way. the president has put out a proposal. he's looked forward to working with republicans to implement something that puts us on a fiscally sustainable path. >> even if we got back to 19 or whatever, the gap is still so big, between what we're selling -- >> and back to housing for a second. i guess i always underestimate it, because a lot of people had fixed mortgages, they weren't immediately seeing a move from like 2% or 3% mortgages up to 7.5 or even 8 for a while. that makes it prohibitively expensive to try to buy a house right now. and i know you say, well, that's

because the fed had to raise rates 500 basis points and mortgage rates followed. but don't you think part of why the fed had to raise rates is because of the post-pandemic spending spree that we went on in a couple of the other things that -- the inflation reduction act and all of the spending that we did made dollars worth ll le. therefore rates have to go up and everybody got hurt. that's why everybody still has that sour toast in their mouth about how far our paycheck goes every couple of weeks. >> i disagree, and i think, joe, the best example as to why, what we did made sense is when we looked at our countries in europe. where they spent less than us to recover from the pandemic, but they also had higher inflation rates, due to factors caused by the pandemic and russia's invasion of ukraine. what we did by investing in the american people is what's led to

us having growth in the united states, as twice as fast as any other g-7 country. when it comes to housing, we all know for more than a decade we've built too little housing in the country and the president is committed to make sure that we increase the supply of housing, which is the best way to reduce cost. one of the most important things that we can do is make sure that we do something that i know you're very in favor of, which is regulatory reform. at the state and local level, to fix zoning. and minneapolis has done just that, and lo and behold, in minneapolis, we've seen housing costs remain lower than the national average, and we're seeing that in cities and states throughout the country, that are taking steps to fix zoning. so while we need dcongress to pass the bill that's in front of the senate that's bipartisan that will give us more money to help increasing housing, we need state and local governments to take steps to fix their zoning in order to make sure that we can build more housing for americans. we can do that while making the investments we've made in our economy, which have led to the american economy outperforming other g-7 countries and ensure that we continue to grow.

>> deputy secretary, i'm here in aspen at the aspen ideas festival, and there has been a major debate going on about energy and specifically, lng. and i wanted to ask you about it, because there's a talking point that a lot of folks have talked about just yesterday. it came out of the ft, i believe, in may, that showed that given the pause on lng in the u.s., that russia exports of natural gas going into europe exceeded that of the united states. and i'm so curious how you think about that. >> so i think that what you'll see is that's a quirk in the data that will soon be reversed. but more importantly, what we have done is not paused current lng shipments. those are continuing. right now, the united states is producing more energy than any country in the world. we're producing more oil than saudi arabia. but what we know is ultimately for american consumers who we care about the most, to have low-cost energy, we need a better mix. and that's why the president is so focused -- one of the reasons

the president is so focused on clean energy. but today we're producing more natural gas than at any point in our industry. and a lot of that will support europe and it's going to continue to do so. but the president has announced is that we're going to take time look at the impact of what we're doing in terms of producing natural gas in order to evaluate what we do going forward. but this in no way interrupts the supply that we have now, which is leading the world in terms of both natural gas and oil production. >> deputy secretary, appreciate your time this morning. and hope to see you again soon, kick all of these things around again in the near future. thanks. >> thanks for having me. it's always good to see you. >> you're%. coming up in just a moment, another special interview live right here at the aspen ideas festival. actor and author, griffin dunne will join us to talk about the way the business of hollywood is changing from streaming to story telling, one of the great character actors of our time. don't go anywhere.

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welcome back to "squawk box." futures right now pointing higher. although we've lost a little bit on the s&p. we're now looking to open but ten points and nasdaq will be up by 77. andrew? >> our next guest is actor, producer, director, griffin dunne. he recently published his first book, a family memoir, called "the family afternoon club," it details his time on screen and behind the scenes and his family's personal story growing up with larger than life characters. he is one. i called him a character actor. do you like when people call you a character actor? >> i've got to face it, i am a character actor. and the life of a young actor, who is no terribly bad-looking, you know, you enter it in your 20s and you're getting the girl,

and next thing you know, you're the girl's father, and then you're the grandfather. i used to play the lawyer, now i play the judge. it's life. >> so tell us about this book, "the friday afternoon club." how long did it take to write? what were you trying to do? you come from a colorful family. >> i do. >> people who have done this before. how intimidating was that? >> well, you know, i'm from a long line of story tellers, and my aunt and uncle are john gregory dunne and my father was dominick dunne, who was a great crime reporter for "vanity fair." and -- but our -- the history of my family always interests me. i grew up on these stories about my outrageous grandparents and grandparents, who did just scandalous, kind of crazy things in their lives. but in the distance of time, since my -- most of my immediate family had passed away, i started to recognize how extraordinary they were, you

know, how we've been through a great deal of, you know, death and you know, mental illness and alcoholism, but it's -- the book is actually very, very funny. it's funny, sad, funny, sad. one side of my family is mexican, the other side is irish. you bring the two -- >> you have stories about your relationships with carrie fisher and all sorts of people from the very beginning. did you appreciate what you -- when you were growing up, do you think you appreciated the family and the life you were living? >> not in the least. you know, i grew up in beverly hills. my parents were so social, they gave these extraordinary parties and went to parties that had, you know, alfred hitchcock and jimmy stewart and billy wilder and all of these filmmakers and movie stars that i would appreciate much later on, when they were practically dead, and i would go, i never got to speak

to billy wilder about "some like it hot." so it was just normal to me. but you know, carrie fisher, you know, was my best friend. i met her when she was 15 and i was 16 and we moved to new york together, we were roommates. and she was just a struggling actress. she was in the chorus of her mother's show on broadway. and then she comes home and says, oh, i got this part in this really stupid movie. it's shooting in england. and i don't even understand it. and i go, what's it called? and she goes, ugh, "star wars." and i said, what's that? two words? and then called from london, and i go, oh, my god, i have two bagels on the side of my head and we have ray guns with triggers and a monkey chases us around. and i grew up around famous people, and that was just the diet of life. but i had snenever seen a best friend overnight explode, while

i was still a popcorn concessionaire at radio city music hall and a waiter counting my tips and all of a sudden she's this huge movie star. >> wlhat was that like for you? >> it was tough on the ego. we lived in the doorman. hey jimmy, hey, griff. overnight he'd go hello mr. fisher. jimmy, it's griffin. everyone -- flowers are arriving from rock stars and i'm still counting my tips and i've got james taylor and glenn frey in my living room. i had to get out. >> five decades later, you have been in how many films total? >> gosh, i'd have to look. 60-something. >> is there one to you that is the one that you hold on to? >> well, i mean the one that really -- where all my dreams came true was a movie i produced

directed by martin scorsese called "after hours." everything i had been working on and toward came together for that movie for sure. >> hollywood is changing in a very, very big way. are you happy about how it's changing? are you worried about how it's changing? you just did a big show on max. >> yes, i did. that was it. one season and it was a show called "girls on the bus." i played someone, a peer of yours inspired, david carr. it was a very intelligent show, but i don't think it had time to breathe. i think that's just a general feeling. in the industry there's a sort of uncertainty. people are taking less chances on material. however, there's so much material. there's so many choices, so i think people are a little fatigued, you know. i know i am, when i go -- i have a night to myself, all i'm going

to do is just watch television and i save all these things, and then i get to it and i don't look at them. >> how much do you do on social media, tiktok and the sfliek. >> instagram. i do do instagram. it's for -- i've got a book coming out. i'm plugging away the book. that self-promotion is part of our daily life. >> do you think you could break -- how much easier or harder do you think it is to break through today? easier or harder? you have the social media pieces, but the fragmentation of it all. >> it's still word of mouth. that's the strongest tool you can have. that's where social media comes in. it's a form of word of mouth. but there's -- advertising as we knew it. people aren't taking out -- used to be when you had a movie coming out and you could value how much the studio liked your movie if they took out what's called a double truck ad in the

paper. >> yeah, i remember. >> it's almost up to the filmmaker or the actor or the creator to promote their own movie and get it out. in my case in this book, there's an agent in new york. she's 91 years old. she's still completely active named body boatwright. she knows everyone on earth. the most famous people on earth had read my book before it came out and then they talked about it. it's on the bestseller liss. >> here we are talking about it. congratulations to you. >> thank you. >> thank you for joining us this morning. we should note that we've got a lot coming on from aspen today. a little later speaking with microsoft ai chief, and john legend is here, manchin is here actually speaking with his

daughter. we'll bring you all that tomorrow on "squawk." why e-commerce is still key to amazon's case. we'll bring you that story. back after this.

hello. i'm ethereum. and i'm big finance. you look really tired. just calling it a day. but it's 4 p.m. yeah, and i've been working nonstop since 9:30 this morning, so. 9:30. you don't say? yep. you'd want a little shut-eye too if you'd been moving billions around the world. well, actually, i do. you know, stablecoins, nfts, loans. people can access me 24/7. what? but look, everyone's different. you should get your rest. you'll get after it tomorrow. tomorrow's saturday. [ethereum] monday. you'll get after it again on monday.

. amazon has been one of the standout members of the magnificent seven this years with ai and cloud investors capturing attention. but e-commerce business has been booming. kate mooney joins us with more. hey, kate. >> hey, joe. good morning. amazon's retail business appears to be having an especially strong first half of the year. it's still a major part of the case for amazon. jpmorgan now predicts amazon will surpass walmart as the largest u.s. retailer. in 2024 it's on track to capture about 45% of all e-commerce in the states with just under 10% of total retail sales. amazon is growing faster than walmart as well. it's seen share gains for about the last eight quarters. jpmorgan highlights a potential edge for amazon when it comes to incorporating ai into online shopping. bank of america suggesting a solid quarter for amazon to start. analysts are constructive given

e-commerce share gains, strong ad growth for amazon and some of the core retail margin expansion there. market share gains have been driven by delivery speeds, next-day shipping, faster shipping time have been some of the investors. in logistics, something called regionalization is starting to pay off. amazon said nearly 60% of prime members arrived the same day or the next day. it's gaining share in more surprising area. citi point out home improve. as one spot that's really normally dominated by home depot. 59 respondents say they'll go to amazon versus 62% for home depot. a year ago it was 80%, thinking home depot just under 40%. the retail battleground for both amazon and walmart is still consumables. mof it in nathanson expects walmart and amazon to

consolidate, things like food and clothing. this is retail's version of trench warfare. no one is going down without a fight. joe, back over to you. >> it's happened to me, kate, a couple times. i'm driving and i've got to stop because there's a big amazon truck here, and the person on the other side of the street is stopped because there's an amazon truck here. honest to god, it's happened. it's something to behold, how many of those are around. that's why they're on time, right? >> yeah. it's totally changed consumer behavior. you think of the horror of waiting three days for shipping. >> the horror. >> others trying to keep up. you don't want to wait even overnight. helping amazon, part of the bull case. >> thanks, kate. we're watching that and walmart. that stock is trading lower down by 1.7%. the cfo making comments at a london bank of america conference saying not every quarter will be as good as the last quarter.

certainly the quarter we're in qt will be the most challenging quarter from a comp perspective. the stock has had quite a run this year. >> new fresh record all-time high. we've got to go. futures, i don't know, andrew, see you -- you lucky guy, in aspen. he's working hard, though. are you going to be here tomorrow? >> yes. >> i'll see you tomorrow. >> make sure you join us. "squawk on the street" right now. ♪ good tuesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street" i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer at post nine of the new york stock exchange. faber has the morning off. the story flips as nvidia looks to bounce after the worst three-day drop in a year and a half. what does this mean for the next rotation? a tough three-day slight. bofa adds it t