the opening ceremony for the olympics are friday, july 26th on our parent network, nbc. but before that, the olympic team trials continue thursday at 8:00 p.m. eastern on nbc and peacock. track and field, men's gymnastics. i was watching some track and field last night. really exciting stuff. >> love it. >> good stuff. >> thanks for watching "power lunch," everybody. >> "closing bell" starts right now. thanks so much. welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner at post 9 from the new york stock exchange. this begins with the tale of two markets. index is doing pretty well this year. many individual names in this market, though, not so much. schwab's liz ann sonders is with us momentarily to expand on what she calls the great divergence and where it goes from here. in the meantime, your scorecard with 60 minutes in regulation. rough day for the dow. under pressure for much of the day. home depot, the big loser after pool corp warned about a slowdown in new construction projects. we'll watch those two stocks over the last hour. elsewhere, united health,

boeing, mcdonald's, goldman are all drags on the dow today. nvidia, though, bouncing back after some very rough sessions of late. there's that stock, up near 6%. nasdaq is a winner as a result. other mega cap names are helping buyers. keep an eye on cruise lines over the last hour. carnival posting a surprise profit and that sending the space surging. tongue twister. we got it. takes us to our talk of the tape. second half for stocks, and whether a significant broadening might be in the cards. let's ask liz ann sonders, schwab's chief investment strategist. good to have you back. >> nice to be here. >> i took a riff off what you were telling our production team. tale of two markets. considerable weakness at the individual stock level. expand on that and whether you think it gets any better as we make the turn. >> sure. so, using the nasdaq as an example, admittedly an extreme

example, you've had no more than 7% maximum drawdown at the index level for the nasdaq. at the average member level, the maximum drawdown is 38%. that's a heck of a lot of churn and rotation on the surface, much more so in the case of the s&p 500. it's manifested itself in other ways, too. you can see the stat i was talking about. it's only 15% for the s&p. another way it's manifested itself is there's right now i think a 32 percentage point difference in terms of the share of the s&p above its 200-day moving average versus the share of the nasdaq. 41 for the nasdaq. 42 for the s&p. similarly widespreads of weaker breadth for the nasdaq looking ahead tends to be more supportive of the nasdaq in relative returns versus the s&p. >> you feel pretty good overall

about where the markets are here heading into the second half? >> depends on what you mean by the markets. i think there's opportunities being created at the individual stock level because of how weaker breadth has been for the average stock. i would be surprised to see some consolidation, convergence where you see short periods of time, extended periods of time where we saw in the past week where some high flyers get back a little performance and you start to see whether you measure it by equal weight or look at average members, look at traditional advance decline ratios where you start to see some grinding higher down outside of those mega cap names. and i think that would correct some of the concentration problem in a more benign way than if the market just sort of dropped like a stone all at once. >> even if we broaden out to a much less concentrated environment, you still think

people should stay large cap? >> not necessarily. i think they should stay high quality. on factors, quality-oriented fastball tors like strong balance sheet, strong free cash flow, there is a bias up the cap spectrum there. even in a small cap indexes, there is a huge performance differential using kind of a quality demarcation. in fact, if you look at the russell 2000, you go back to the beginning of 2023, you know, encapsulated the period of aggressive monetary policy on the upside by the fed, obviously there's a measure of interest rate sensitivity, which is greater for the so-called zombie companies that don't have sufficient cash flow to pay interest on their debt. if you go back to the beginning of 2023, the zombie companies within the russell 2000 are down about 10%, the non-zombie companies are up 10%, so that's a 20 percentage point difference. that's the way to think about it, as opposed to simply a cap

bias. it's the quality, the strength of balance sheet, it's the interest coverage that matters. and it matters up the cap spectrum and down the cap spectrum. >> what do you make of the lack of volatility for the most part in the first half of the year? fits and starts there but nothing to point to say, wow, this is really volatile markets. do you feel like that's going to return in the second half because we're going to be talking more about rate cuts and the election? bespoke had a stat, which is really just astounding when you sit back and realize how reasonably sanguin has been. the s&p has gone 340 trading days without a drop of 1 to 2%. we're talking a year before a 2% drop in the s&p. >> because it's been biased to performance up the cap spectrum in that relatively small handful of names. and that's kept index level volatility relatively low. in response to the first part of your question, at some point i

think the answer is, definitely, yes, the path of least resistance for volatility goes up. undoubtedly you can plug in fed policy uncertainty, election uncertainty, geopolitics into the mix of what could be the trigger for a pick up in volatility. just election related trends, you do tend to see a pick up in volatility in general, but you do also tend to see a pick up in sector volatility as traders tend to focus on the policies and the likelihood of them turning into policies from the span of the campaign to post election. >> we're going to certainly be debating in the weeks and certainly months to come what rate cuts are going to mean for the markets. as we've recalibrated our expectations on what is going to happen and when, i to listen to what keith meister told me the other day about the impact of rate cuts on the market. i would like your thoughts on the other side of that.

let's listen. >> i think rate cuts will actually be a negative for the market. >> you do? >> sure. why would webe cutting rates? we would be cutting rates because things are rolling over. so, if we can stay with short-term rates at 5.25, 5.50%, longer term rates at 4.25% and full employment, i think that's a healthy back drop. >> what do you make of that. >> i think it's the why. the why behind rate cuts. it's not just simply the fed shifting to rate cuts. i think there probably will be areas that get hurt with lower rates. a lot of the mega cap companies, cash-rich companies have been paying interest on debt. on the other hand, on the margin, it helps down into the zombie category, the companies that are more leveraged to traditional banking system or the credit markets and a little bit of reprieve could give some

life there. really what's key is not just the why behind the fed moving from pause mode where we are right now to cutting, but also the pace they're cutting. one key differentiator in terms of better market performance versus worse market performance, even cyclical performance relative to defensive performance comes if you break past cycles into slow cycles versus fast cycles. when the fed is moving slowly on the downside, that's better. that's why i always say to people looking for the fed to be aggressive when they start cutting, be careful what you wish for because of the point made. an aggressive easing cycle, especially in contrast to the hike cycle, probably means the fed is combating some combination of recession and/or financial crisis. i don't think that that's certainly not financial crisis in the cards but it's the speed that really has been an important differentiator to how the market has performed in the past. >> we've been discussing with steve liesman over the last couple of days whether the

market is underestimating the possibility that july could be a live meeting. the market's all but written that off. the prospects of a cut are 10% at this point. of course, we're getting pce this coming friday. and i just wonder what do you think the market reaction would actually be if there was a july cut but it was for the right reasons. maybe with a little sprinkling of, hey, there's softening in certain aspects of the economy and we don't want to risk those becoming worse. we actually feel confident now after another pce report, which would be like three in a row. >> it's unlikely to be at the fed's target. if they want to be pure to that promise, absent a deterioration -- further deterioration in the labor market, july is probably a bit of a stretch. now, if in the period between now and the meeting we do see

more acute deterioration in the labor market and move up in the unemployment rate, something for significant than even what we've seen in unemployment claims, we've been saying that the fed may get to a point where they've got enough weakness in the labor market they can point to as representing a green light for starting to ease policy absent a move in core pce, down to their target. but we probably are going to need to see a little more weakness in the labor market for them to jump as soon as july. >> they've said it explicitly, i'm speaking of the fed chair himself, they're not going to wait until target to start cutting rates. they want to wait until they have some level of the confidence they feel he they must have. >> the question is, how do they define confidence in terms of what kind of string are they looking for? they did get cold feed, obviously, when you had the three months in a row of hotter

than expected inflation readings and you got the batch most recently of cooler than expected. i think they want to see to some degree an established trend and not continued choppiness. but they also don't tend to move starkly against expectations. maybe you could argue they did that at the beginning of the year when the market was pricing in six and seven cuts. we talked about this many times on air. i thought the market was way over its skis at that point. there was no data of the dual mandate to justify that. the market is rightly so, to come more in line with what the fed is suggesting. i don't even want to say telegraphing because they're data dependent. i think a shift from what is the current market expectation from a july start absent data that suggests, okay, it's time to start easing, might not be such

a positive surprise for markets. >> when you're the chief investment strategist of a firm that is so front-facing as you guys are to the individual invegser and you see nvidia do what it's been doing, and you know it's really peaking interest among your client space, how have you managed to navigate this whole environment where some say froth, maybe it's justified, i'm sure the questions people are getting at schwab from clients and individual investors are fixated on this issue, the volumes that you've seen around this name have obviously been elevated. how is the chief investment strategist are you processing this whole thing? >> i'm not going to make a recommendation buy or sell on any individual stock, including nvidia. as you know, scott, we have schwab ratings which rates over

3,000 stocks with a, b, c, d, e and f. as are holds, cs are sell -- so we can point anybody to any stock. that's where the financial consultant comes into play. we have $9.2 trillion of client assets. there's no cookie cutter answer, even if it's not at the stock level of should we do some rebalancing, should we trim some of these outside holdings and what do we look to add? that's all a function of what the strategic and tactical asset allocation is within portfolios and where their concentration risk might be. in other names, particularly if they own company stocks, so there is no one cookie cutter answer, especially when you're talking about $9 trillion of client assets. we bring back the broad message of discipline and rebalancing, but the specific what do i do with this stock or how do i make the adjustments in my portfolio,

that's where the consultant is working directly with them come into play. >> i hear you on that. let's broaden. out. let's bring in victoria hernandez and chris from ned davis research. victoria, we're about to make the turn, second half of the year. >> i'm concerned about the weaker economic reports we've been receiving as of late. the consumer has been holding up this economy, along with nvidia and other names driving returns in the market this year. if we look at consumer slowing, the tailwinds for the consumer, the compensation is slowing, savings is slowing down. it gives me a little concern as to the strength of the concern, which feeds into the fact that corporate revenues, i think, could start to decline as well.

when are we going to see earnings revisions start to come through. again, these are the things that have been undermining some of the positive news in this market. so, it does give me a little bit of concern. corporate revenues are key. you talked about mcdonald's earlier. you look at some of those companies that have been relying on increased prices for their revenues, not increase in unit sales. unit sales are the same as they were back in 2019. i think we'll continue to see some pressure there. you know you can get a negative feedback loop from there where margins are being put under pressure, that leads to more layoffs, consumer demand declining and we can keep going from there. you don't want to stand in the way of a market that continues to make new highs, but i think you have to take a step back and see if there are areas that liz ann was talking about earlier, where you can broaden out your investments and be ready if the market takes a turn. >> okay. i'm trying to figure out what the practical thing to do is

based on what your perspective is. if you think equities could be vulnerable for the very reasons you suggested, when you say broaden out your exposure, are we talking in other asset classes beyond equities or are you saying within the stock market itself? >> it's both, scott. i think you should look at some of these sectors, like a health care, add a little bit of staples. i think if yields start to move up a little bit because the fed doesn't move as fast as what the market's anticipating, you could add a little to financials. but i think you also have to look at your overall portfolio allocation. why wouldn't you add a little fixed income in order to have some cash flow? why wouldn't you add something like a covered call strategy? again, generating some income to buffer any kind of volatility we may see in the equity market.

a little global exposexposure. i think you look at other asset classes in order to help buffer any kind of movement you'll see in the second half of this year. >> ed, are you as concerned about the second half of the market as victoria sounds like she is? >> not quite as concerned. i think the big picture is we're looking at an economic slowdown. odds of recession are fairly low. i do think earnings revisions are going to need to happen over the next several months. for example, estimates for s&p 500 operating earnings are looking at, say, 7% for q2 and 20% for q3, q4. there's no macro reason to get that big of a jump. but if we can maintain decent earnings growth and we get the fed to move towards a rate cut, we think december, but possibly before that. then it's still a recipe for a bull market.

i do have some concerns about the recent technical damage, percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average. at each new high in the s&p, there's been a lower and lower percentage. percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average, so longer term, still well above 60%. most stocks are in long-term uptrends. just the short term has gotten worse. we want to make sure the short term doesn't become the long term. we're looking for a pullback in the third quarter. the start of a bear market doesn't seem to be part of the cycle here. >> victoria, you say your bigger fear is it stokes more inflation. >> we're not where we want to be in regards to the fed's target on inflation. you guys were mentioning that earlier. steve liesman was talking earlier today on the network about the month-to-month changes and how if we're slightly higher than where we've been over the

past few years, it will be almost impossible to get back down to 2%. so, if that's the case, and the fed keeps pushing off those rate cuts, if the labor market doesn't weaken enough for them to make a move, then you have short-term nominal rates that are higher than your nominal gp growth. that's going to lead to some kind of a pullback, financial creases, recession, whatever words you want to use to describe a pullback. and then you could have some elements where the market anticipates that the fed is going to then come to the rescue. you have that fed put that is in place. you'll stoke inflation higher as you have more stimulus put into the economy. we're in an election year, scott. we know more stimulus is coming. we've already seen it with the employment. retention attack credits are ramping up again. that's another $80 billion coming into the economy.

i think there could be some elements where you're stoking inflation and the market anticipates a fed put, so you're going to stoke a melt-up in the equity market as well. >>. >> you don't think the fed is going to cut because they can cut because inflation is -- they have more confidence inflation is going to work back to target? they're cut before inflation gets to 2%. we know that. >> they will cut before it gets to 2%. i'm not sure if we'll have that trend and give them the confidence they're looking for in the next few months. i agree, it might be december when they do that, but you look at some of the inflation numbers, yes, core goods cpi was deflationary, but you look at essential goods, shipping, insurance, that's on the rise. you look at nondiscretionary inflation, that's over 5%. so, i do still think there's some elements that will keep inflation a little bit higher and that's going to cause the fed to wait a little bit. >> liz ann, do you have any

worries that the fed makes a mistake by either going too early or waiting too long? >> well, one thing i would say, when you said the fed will definitely start cutting before inflation gets to their target, not necessarily. i don't think it's a high likelihood scenario but a scenario of a turn back higher in growth. and, you know, a huge positive jobs report and inflation is still above their target. then i think the bias is stay put. i don't think it necessarily shifts to a tightening bias again, but i think that would be the scenario under which the fed wouldn't do anything, wouldn't start cutting with inflation. therefore it rests on the labor market side, on the growth side. i think there's always a risk of a policy, especially in this incredibly unique cycle where we're dealing with so many cross-currents, so many bifurcations. not necessarily false readings by things like the inversion of

the yield curve or the lei. we had strength and weakness roll through at different times and i think it makes the job of the fed a little trickier. it's today's apple compared to history's oranges. a policy mistake, yeah. on the comment made about the fed put, i don't think their fed put still exists as it relates to pure weakness just in the equity market. i don't think their inclination is to step in just to stop a correction in the equity market, especially because it would tighten financial markets and alleviate the inflation problem. i wouldn't apply it to just market weakness. >> we'll make that the last word. appreciate it. liz ann, thank you. let's head to pippa stevens for a look at the biggest names. >> shares of novo hitting a new all-time high after its weight loss treatment wegovy was given

the green light for long-term weight management in china. ozempic won approval from china in 2021 and demand for that drug has been soaring in the country. and rivian jumping 8% after guggenheim initiated coverage with a buy rating. the firm sees a credible path to break even in gross margin bit fourth quarter and said a reduction in cash burn alleviates some near-term overhang on the stock. those shares, though, down nearly 50% this year. scott? >> pippa, i appreciate that. breaking news on the ipo front. angelica peeples has that for us. >> bloomberg is reporting clario has filed confidentially for an ipo. bloomberg says clario is targeting a listing for next year. they're saying the underwriters are jpmorgan chase, morgan stanley, jeffries and ubs. we're still reading through this. we'll let you know. they're targeting evaluation of

about $10 billion. >> appreciate that. thank you. up next, navigating nvidia's volatility. eric jackson is back. he'll make a bold call, too, where he thinks that stock is heading. he'll do it after the break. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. the future is not just going to happen. you have to make it. and if you want a successful business, all it takes is an idea, and now becomes the future where you grew a dream into a reality. the all new godaddy airo. put your business online in minutes with the power of ai.

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with speeds up to a gig in millions of locations. and right now, xfinity internet customers can buy one unlimited line and get one free for a year. get the fastest connection to paris with xfinity. welcome back. nvidia is back. well, at least for today. up 6.5%. it is still down 11% from record highs set last week. emj's eric jackson holds the stock and he joins me now to tell me how he's playing it. good to see you, man. i'm looking at the notes here. >> how are you? >> i'm good. i'm not as good as you think nvidia is going to be, though. these are not typos? you think it's going to head to 70 times pe before the end of the year and it's going to hit $6 trillion in market cap at 250 a share?

do tell. >> i think so. i think so. by the end of the year. as people start to look forward to what they're going to do in 2025. yeah, i know you talk all the time to people like stacy raskin who says, this stock is so cheap and yet nobody seems to believe it. here are the numbers. over the last five years, nvidia's average has been 40 times. yesterday after this two-day correction, it was 39 times forward price earnings. but there have been three times in the last five years where it's had a look forward price earnings multiple of over 50x and two times in the last five years where it's gotten just about to 70x and then pulled back. so, we just haven't seen -- >> it didn't just back pull back at those times. it got destroyed. >> it got destroyed, yes, a couple of those times.

this is a high flyer. and expectations can reset on a bad earnings report, but they can also get equally overhyped on good news. and despite the fact the stock has had an enormous run, the euphoria hasn't caught up. in terms of the go forward multiple. i think what's going to happen in the second half of this year, as people start to see highway w how well the blackwell chips are, how good the gross margin is, and what's to come with the ruben chips around the corner, the next generation after that, i think we'll start to see that euphoria reflected in a lofty go forward prices earnings multiple. if that happens, this thing could go to $6 trillion market cap. >> you don't think they're overearning right now, just based on the flood of orders? they're kind of the only game in town. >> they're selling to these big hyperscalers. think about it, who are they going to sell to?

they can't make enough of these chips to sell to everybody on the planet. they have to prioritize. why wouldn't you prioritize to these hyperscalers who are putting in orders as large as they possibly can to lock up as many of these chips they can currently get their hands on, the h100s, h200s? that's supposed to be a bad sign? that's supposed -- >> it's want a bad thing. it is what it is. you have to extrapolate what you think the future is going to look like based on everything you just said right now. there are other competitors out there who are going to be making chips and selling them to potentially the hyperscalers, too, and other players as well. granted, nvidia has the whole football field to itself so it can go up and down the field unabated. there's no defense. eventually there might be defense on that field. >> years down the road.

so, they've got -- to use your analogy, scott, they've got 80 yards of clear turf in front of them to keep running towards the touchdown. nobody is catching up to them. there's just a bunch of lazy linebackers behind them. i think it's years away from that happening. they're going to take advantage of that lead that they have and it's not expensive. co2 had an earnings slide talking about how this is not cisco in the dotcom era. cisco's forward multiple got something like a peak of 130x. again, we're below the mean for the last five years. even though the stock has done well, it is still relatively cheap compared to where it's traded in the past. >> your points are well made and valid, too, on the valuation in the past. raskin point out when we most recently spoke that before this

run even started, nvidia was at 60 times. now as you said, it's 40. obviously on an historical basis, it's nowhere near as expensive as it once was. i can promise you, though, if it gets to 70 times and has $6 trillion in market cap, i mean, the conversation is going to be different at that point, don't you think? >> you, me and everybody watching will be ringing the register at that point, happily. at some point it will get to crazy, silly levels. i think we've been overeager to get to that point faster than the realities of where the stock has traded in relation to its revenues and actual earnings. >> all right. the $6 trillion man. we'll see what happens. eric, i appreciate the conversation as always. we'll see you soon. up next, the road ahead for the fed and markets. another critical inflation print is looming over this market this week. mohamed el erian with what he is

expecting and how it could impact your money.

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welcome back. not the time to be cutting rates and hikes are still on the table. that was the hawkish message from michele bowman, further raising stakes ahead of the next critical meeting this friday. joining us is mohamed el erian. welcome back. good to see you. >> thanks for having me, stock. >> pce on friday. let's kick this around. if that comes in favorable,

okay, should the fed consider cutting in july? >> in my opinion, absolutely consider cutting, but i don't think it will. >> why do you say it that way, they should absolutely consider cutting in july? >> just think of the conversation you had earlier. you had disagreement about what's happened to inflation dyn dynamics. you even had disagreement about the impact of low interest rates. we're living in this very uncertain world. if you look at the tails of distribution, which you worry about in an uncertain world, they're heavily tilted in terms the economy slowing much faster than people expect. in such a world, if you want to deliver a soft landing, you've got to start cutting sooner rather than later and not go too far in cutting. so, the most likely mistake right now, the most likely policy mistake, is a fed that

got shaken by two pretty bad calls in the last two years, will end up being overly cautious and will end up not helping to pre-empt what could be a significant slowdown. >> you used the word i used. you think they should do a pre-emptive move to cut rates to protect, in quotes, the economy? >> right. one, i think this economy is slowing much faster. in particular, the household sector no longer has excessive savings, no longer has debt capacity. this is about an economy that no longer has bufrz. if the fed gets the labor market wrong, we are going to have a much faster slowdown than can even imagine. that's the first issue. the second issue, which is much more controversial, which is i don't think 2% is the right target. i think, in fact, if they pursue 2%, they'll run an overtight

monetary policy and they'll end up sacrificing the second part of their mandate. this is an economy whose underlying inflation rate is closer to 3%. sew it feels like over the last couple of days, at minimum, i'm talking about the fed speakers that have been out between interviews that leaseman -- steve liesman has done. there was austan goolsbee yesterday. do you feel like the conversation is starting to tilt towards the idea that we have to be especially careful of the risks of waiting too long to start cutting? >> maybe at the margins. we've had so many monetary pivots, it's embarrassing. it's absolutely embarrassing how often this fed has pivoted. the big mistake -- the recent mistake, big mistake was 2021 when it called inflation

transitory, but let's not forget it fell in love in the fourth quarter with soft inflation numbers and embraced them fully and had to reverse again. we talked about -- you talked with liz ann earlier the market going in with six to seven rate cuts in terms of its expectation. that's because it believed the fed and the fed was saying, i love what's happening to inflation. of course, they got the shock of january, february and march. so, this fed feels burnt and, therefore, is not taking enough of a strategic view of the economy. >> why is that embarrassing. they reacted, haven't they, as they should, as the data changes, the market reprices the idea of when they think there are going to be rate cuts. it's not like the fed cut and had to go back because inflation all of a sudden perked up to start the year. they didn't have to do anything. the market had to adjust itself.

whose fault is that? >> you forget about forward policy guidance. you forget about why we have dot plots. you forget about why wehave a press conference. the whole idea of forward policy guidance is to provide an anchor to the market. it is not that you swing the market around. you talk with liz ann about how low equity volatility has been. that's not the case for fixed income volatility. look at the four weeks with the last fed decisions. we had two-year go up to 5%, go down by 20 basis points, go back down by 18 basis points. that is not how the fed should be anchoring markets. because they're so overly data dependent, because they're doing exactly what you said they should do, they are adding to volatility. that's not what they are supposed to do. >> mohammed, we'll see what happens. i appreciate you coming on. nice to see you again. >> thank you, scott. >> mohamed el erian.

up next, we're tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. pippa stevens is standing by. >> one discretionary stock is sinking. we have all the details coming up next. >> university of maryland global campus isn't just an innovative state school, it's a school for real life, one that values the successes you've already achieved. that's why at umgc, you can earn up to 90 credits toward a bachelor's for prior learning

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we're 15 from the bell. back to pippa stevens for a look at key stocks she is watching.

tell us what you see. >> solar edge is tanking more than 20%, hitting a near seven-year low after the company announced plans for 300 million convertible note offering, taking the street by surprise. solar edge also said one of its customers has filed for bankruptcy and they may fail to collect what's owed and it now expects negative free cash flow of $150 million for the current quarter. pool corporation in the red after lowering its 2024 guidance saying discretionary pool spending has been hampered by the macro economic environment. the company cut annual earnings guidance and said year-to-date net sales are trending down 6.5%. the company expecting full year 2024 net sales to be in a similar range. stock down 8%. scott? >> yeah, home depot selling off and some other names, too. pippa, thank you. coming up, carnival getting a big boost today thanks to record-setting numbers. the whole cruise space is doing very well today. we'll break down the details, how it's impacting other stocks,

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we're in the "closing bell" market zone. cnbc seniors market commentator mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments and seema mody on the carnival rally, cruise stocks as well, and frank holland with earnings coming out today. mike, nasdaq day because nvidia has bounced back quite nicely. >> the rotational toggle has gotten absurd and comical at this point. s&p closed 6464 on friday. it's 5466 right now. down 17 points yesterday. up 18 points today. yesterday was broad. today it's narrow. without a lot of new macro stuff to absorb and react to, the market is caught up in this tactical back and forth.

it's almost like the s&p 500 is at the fulcrum of the seesaw and everything moves up and down around it and keeps the index almost solving for a flattish s&p index. it's not going to persist this way forever. probably a better bounce in nvidia on a one-day basis than i might have expected, given it wasn't just a fleeting morning relief we got. but we'll see where it goes. i think we're building toward as we get to month end, pce, i think we'll be able to reset the pieces of what's going into the market next month. >> seema, talk to us about carnival and other cruise lines. that's a big story today. >> the bullish commentary from josh weinstein not just about demand this year but even the read on early 2025, scott, is quieting critics who were questioning whether travelers would continue to pay up for vacations, cruising specifically. in fact, carnival says even with higher prices, it's still more

cost effective than hotels. here's what weinstein told us earlier today. >> we just were able to report records pretty much across the board and not only is records for the second quarter but the bookings we took in during the second quarter for the future are records as well. so, we haven't seen that sign of a consumer slowdown. if anything, we are seeing an acceleration. >>e in at ago. weinstein saying it's fixing the balance sheet, paying down debt, and that is what has held the stock back. if you look at how it's performed since the pandemic low, it's still down sharply whereas royal caribbean is up about 200% from that time frame. so, today move to the upside is certainly helping carnival's narrative but a lot more room to run here. >> i think ccl is the best in the s&p today. thanks for that report. frank, set the table for us.

fedex in ot. >> thanks, scott. fedex shares are trading lower than last earnings where they reported a surprise beat on earnings. since then weakness in the u.s. and global freight markets have weighed on the stock. guidance will be especially important. estimates have revenue returning to growth profit, improving 18% year over year. there are two big questions. first fedex is guiding for 25 savings from cost-cutting drive initiative, how much of that will flow through to the bottom line. and also the full impact of losing the post office air contract to u.p.s. wells fargo pegs the profit impact at $500 million but still a lot of questions about what the loss of volume will do for mangins at express where fedex gets half of its revenue. >> frank, appreciate that. you have a thought on shippers like fedex? >> yeah, it's tough to separate out fedex's corporate restructuring and the fact it's had this big reversion to the mean move -- to the positive against u.p.s. from the general

weakness in transports that carry stuff. that's been a weak point in the market. you look at general transport to stocks, inexpensive. fedex looks inexpensive. even u.p.s. at this point. i don't think the bar is all that high. you think you can't escape the idea, though, that the overall market is trying to grapple with mixed signals about whether growth is faltering or not. don't want to make too much about the reactions in home depot and walmart. they're giving back yesterday's gains. it does seem as if we're a little sensitive to the idea that things can be slowing down in terms of physical goods as opposed to carnival, things like that. i'm still caught up on 104% occupancy on carnival ships. that means they have virtual stowaways. >> let's see what happens with pce on friday. given what you said about this

little glimmers of worry about -- or trickles of worry, i should say, about the economy, and, look, no one expects at this point july to be live, really, right? the market was, what, 10% chance of a cut. let's see what happens if this report comes in favorable and how the market digests that and starts thinking about it. >> july, i don't think people think it's live. it could become that. what i think they do believe is that july could solidify the case for september. it becomes a more telegraphed move. if it is a friendly inflation number on friday, it will preserve the idea that the fed has room to move, if needed, as opposed to being trapped in the sticky inflation story if, in fact, employment starts to weaken, you start seeing the consumer falter. that to me is the key thing in terms of what's at stake friday.

>> 5471 is the s&p right now. we'll settle as we edge towards the close. a pretty good day there. dow is under pressure. that's largely home depot, goldman, boeing, united health. nvidia, though, leading the nasdaq higher. what else is new? we'll see you in "ot." i will not see you in "ot." >> we've got a 180 from monday's market as' rebound for nvidia lifts the nasdaq and dow gives up yesterday's name. that's the scorecard on wall street. welcome to "closing bell: overtime." >> we are awaiting fedex results. those are due out in just moments. they could give clues on the health of the economy and the economy at large. we will bring you the key numbers and analysis as soon as they cross. >> plus, former amazon executive matt ball tells us why his metaverse etf just made