treasury market. when that actually materializes, but certainly a concern that many high profile investors and bank ceos have raised on our air. >> we have the debates and inflation, we're going to keep our eyes at cnbc on both for the economic reasons. >> we get some sneakers, too. that's going to do it for us here at "overtime." >> “fast money” starts now. >> john, thank you very much. live from the nasdaq site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. all eyes on nvidia, as jensen huang lays out a rosy picture for the a.i. giant's future. a late-day rally to end the day in the green. is this a good sign for the stock and the sector? plus, stressed out? bank stocks on the move, after the results of the latest government stress tests. what they revealed about the health of the financial system and how shares should react. and later, shares of

whirlpool whirl higher on reports a rival is weighing a takeover bid. general mills loses a star, as revenue and guidance disappoint. and is it time to bet on casino stocks? why one top analyst thinks the year's drop is overdone. i'm tyler mathieson, in more melissa lee tonight. great to be with you, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq desk tonight. karen finerman is with us, along with steve grasso, guy adami, and julie biel. >> thank you for being here. >> great to be with you. you know -- >> short straw again, for you. >> i love it. i love being with you. we start with the late-day rebound in nvidia. managing to close a quarter of a percent higher. shares were down nearly 3% at their lows, even after ceo jensen huang delivered an upbeat outlook to investors. on the competitive environment, he suggested that while

competing chips might have a lower price tag, nvidia still offers the best performance and cost to run. he touched on the growing number of industries relying on a.i. processors from pharma to telecommunications and autos. ultimately expecting the recently launched blackwell gpu to be the most successful one in the company's history. while nvidia did eek out a gain, other semi names were feeling the pain. qualcomm, amd, applied materials, and taiwan semi, just some of the chip makers in the red. so, what should we make of the choppy trading in chips? let me turn to you, guy. >> it is great having you, tyler. >> great to be here. >> that's a great question. nvidia late-day rally without question, obviously had a nice day yesterday. i'll still go back to june 20th of last week, when we saw that reversal, looked a lot like it did back on march 8th. so, the setup, to me, suggests that the stock has a leg lower. it's not an indictment of the story by any stretch of the imagination, it's just what

we've seen historically and we try to get in front of some of these trading moves. to answer your question about some of the other ones, it's interesting. it's become a zero sum, not only in the market, but in the sector, as well. and nvidia's gains are to the detriment to a lot of the other names you mentioned. qual qualcomm today looks more interesting for a trade right now than i you this nvidia does at these current levels. >> steve? >> so, a couple things. i think they did a great job of pointing out the sectors and space that will be helped with a.i. chips, which are all, right? so, 11 sectors are going to be helped by it. and they have an 80%, 85% market share. so, as long as those two things are still reality, i think it can go higher, but to guy's point, it's had a massive run. the law of gravity probably applies. would i be shocked if it came in, no. am i long it, yes. will i stay long it, yes.

>> and history shows that this stock can go up. >> yes. just as guy and steve said, a little breather is not -- we should expect it. >> don't freak out. >> absolutely. nothing has changed since that three days ago when it hit 140 and change, and today, nothing's changed. the valuation is 10% lower. but i still like the story. i'm long. i think that -- it's interesting. i don't usually think of the shareholder meeting of eventful in any way, but it was an opportunity for him to, you know, talk up the story still and, you know, the market share and blackwell and -- >> karen just made the point, julie, that it's not really all that often that shareholder meetings get this kind of attention, but it's not all that often that we have a stock that gets the kind of attention nvidia has lately. >> that's right. i mean, jensen is a celebrity at this point, so, it makes sense that people would be listening with a lot of interest. and i think it's really on the

company to start being able to demonstrate what the economics are of using their chips. it's not enough, to me, that they are the most efficient or that they are, you know, saving on power. and what they've tried to do is talk about, you know, hyperscalers, if you spend a dollar in nvidia, you're going to have $5 revenue over the next few years. that's great. but the problem with that, we don't really know for sure that that's what companies are going to be willing to pay. so, i think that question mark is going hamper really the development and the growth in this business. i think for long-term investors, it's still the place to be. >> i was speaking earlier today with a perngs son, and i kind o asked the question this way, are the chips that they're making so advanced that the companies that are buying them need to find a way to use them, in other words, we haven't figured them out yet, we don't -- we -- there's a scenario that you get $5 in return for every dollar you spend, but who knows, really, because these are so new, julie. >> it's extremely ambiguous.

and i think that's the big problem with any kind of tech transformation, you know, there's the i.p.a. you start with infrastructure, the level that we're at right now. then you have platforms, then you have applications. in order for the whole thing to work, we have to have the killer apps. if they don't come tofruition, all the spending will be for naught. i'm confident that we will get there. but it's an ongoing question that i think plagues a lot of investors who are worried that the return case suspect quite there yet. >> guy, i.p.a. is usually something you drink. >> you don't do that, tyler. did you take math at university of virginia, or just liberal arts thing -- >> a probability class and i was done with it. >> probably did extraordinary. so, let's play a little math game here for a second. qualcomm, very mature company and i'm only comparing it through the lens of they're both semiconductors. i understand nvidia should trade at a premium. qualcomm, $220 billion company that will do $42 billion of revenues ish next year. let's say they trade at six times revenue, which, by the way, is sort of the historical

norm for semiconductors. the flip side of the coin, nvidia with a $3.1 trillion market cap, $155 billion expected to earn next year, i mean, back of the envelope suggests they're between 19 and 20. they deserve that -- >> on -- >> to revenue. just to sales. history you cannily, again, these are mid to upper single digit companies. now, i'm not saying it should trade at six times revenue, but should it be trading at 20? so, there has to be, at some point, there's a maturity to these companies. competition is coming. and the 20 times revenue, unless they grow into it in a remarkable way, is expensive in my opinion. >> where is the competition coming from? >> well, amd is hoping that it's coming from amd. i wonder if it could come with nvidia with needing to sell chips at a lower price, if there's some push-back on the demand and that would make them need to sell at a lower price. but i mean, for right now, that kind of market share is so

extraordinary -- >> like 90% some, right? >> and i think -- between 80% and 85%, but -- we're splitting hairs here, right? they're so far ahead of everybody else, and they've got the only ability to actually produce the chips. so, the other companies can't actually get them as fast as nvidia could get them. go ahead, karen. >> one other point i want to make, so, you're locked in now to nvidia. they want to lock you in with software and hardware, right? so, you get the very sticky customer -- >> ecosystem. >> ecosystem. >> that's what he's trying to do. >> and they're still best in breed, right? so, as long as they can be the arbiter of who can produce the most amount of chips, they produce the best in breed chip, all these corporations are going to want the best in breed chip, especially if you want something that's really advanced. so, nvidia started out with internet of things, gaming, car, everything, and now, they are

all -- everything to everyone, and that can't last for an extreme amount of time, but it certainly can last until the others start to produce -- >> i would think -- i don't -- i'm not a money manager, you guys are, you have this cycle where i'm sure clients would say, well, if you're not overweight in nvidia, what are you doing? why aren't you hitting this stock in a major way, right? >> well, you're talking about career risk for people that do it for a living, like, how do you explain to people that, no, we didn't believe the nvidia story, we're not in it. you know, as you get towards july, which we're on the precipice of, i mean, as it gets later in the year, if you missed it, you're chasing. and i think to a certain extent, that's what we're seeing. but i don't know if that's good or bad. it is what it is, but i'm not certain it's a good thing or a bad thing at this point. going to stick with the chips sector. we've got an earnings alert now on micron. shares in the red, after earnings, despite a top and bottom line beat. let's get the explanation from seema mody. >> guidance seems to be why the

stock is down, tyler. the ceo spending time on the earnings call discussing its next generation higher bandwidth memory product, which he says has 30% lower pow er consumptio. he adds that the shipment began in the third quarter. he says data center solid state drives are in the midst of a strong demand recovery, as customers have worked through their 2023 inventory and that the pc replacement cycle, where there's been a lot of questions around, should gather momentum through calendar 2025, as new artificial intelligence applications are rolled out. now, micron has been widely seen by the market as one of the a.i. beneficiaries in the semiconductor industry, providing the memory and storage for those systems. it s for those systems. it forecast failed to meet the high expectations, with the stock up 67%. analysts in the last hour saying you are seeing a rerating of the stock, but he still sees upside from current levels.

tighter inventory levels, another big talking point, they expect that to help pricing long-term. tyler, we're looking at micron, down 4.7%. >> seema, thank you very much. an micron's ceo will be on "mad money" tomorrow. steve, how do you trade this one? >> i haven't been in this one in a long time. i missed the hyperbolic run that it's had. it's about d-ram for them. it's a little over 70% of their revenues is d-ram. d-ram is needed for these data centers. so, they were sort of a secondary trade for the a.i. push. they're not a sexy story like nvidia. they're the ones that are supplying the memory storage for them. they need to keep that story sexy. as sexy as you can make d-ram. and d-ram is a boom/bust commodity story, so, right now, it's forever -- it's been like an annuity. they had their time in the sun. now, they have to really put up

or shut up that -- the future is going to be just as exciting as people had thought it was going to be. >> julie, can you make d-ram sexy? >> if anyone can, it's me? >> exactly. that's what i thought. >> well, i think the real trick for this business is that the stock doesn't go up if they just sell as much as they possibly can. they need to not be able to even meet the demand. and that's not the case right now, because as we noted, it's a commodity type of business, and so, for these guys, they can attach themselves to the a.i. train as much as they want, but at the end of the day, it's still a much more competitive and commodity business. they can benefit, but there's going to be lots of competcompe. >> very interesting. let's get more on nvidia, go back there, in the a.i. trade, with the head of technology research ben reitz. >> great to be here. >> we sort of touched on it with karen a moment ago, is what's

been going on with nvidia a kind of expectable phenomenon, something we've seen before, so, an investor who is in there for the ride and goes, oh, boy, we're down 15% last week, is this -- is this the end of the game here, should i be out of it? what's going on here? >> i think nvidia has moves where people find themselves underweight and they have to catch up and then it runs and then there's all sorts of things. this last week, there was a rebalance and people were playing that, and then it kind of unwound and created a big move. but in general, nvidia has nailed the full stack approach. the only thing that i've experienced like this is, well, maybe two things. maybe the wintel duopoly of the '90s, and then apple getting the iphone. and the full stack approach, when a company nails it, is able to generate a disproportionate share of the profits for that sector. and in their case, some people argue it's like all the profits.

>> well, that sounds like you're describing the word we used earlier, and that is ecosystem, that they have built it, they own it, it is their game to lose. >> that's right. what they -- >> or win. and they're winning. >> the foresight they had is unparalleled. that's why we were laughing when people said, are they being investigated? for what? seeing the biggest tech change ever? but what they did is, they built a language, a computing language and an ecosystem that allows you to monetize a.i., and, you know, obviously they're killing it. and i think that people -- this is probably got the most upside of the mag seven that we cover. even though we really like apple and others. >> questions, thoughts -- >> karen, go ahead. >> no, go aheld. >> ben initiated dell on november 20th. you've been spot on. the quarter was may 31st, the stock sold off, made sense to me. are you concerned at how it's

been trading since? you had that little bounce off the selloff, but it's right back to those levels. the story's still intact, but the stock's run out of steam a little bit? >> well, you can't go straight up unless you're nvidia, right? that's the rule. so, in dell's case, they missed margins, and there's concern that only nvidia is allowed to beat margins, but some of their partners don't. i think if dell demonstrated margin expansion as we go throughout the year, stock rebounds. but bigger picture, guy, i think we're in a generational shift of market cap from, like, software sas back towards hardware. and if dell shows that they can be part of these a.i. factories, that means a secularly right company. they get market multiples, even premiums, right? so, we're staying the course, based on that thesis. >> what is -- you had a question, karen, i'm sorry. >> yeah. he talked about blackwell, fergs of all, coming out earlier than people thought, and also that we will come out every year with a

new chip. so, in part of that creating the ecosystem, how long do you think customers will buy that? >> ah, yeah, i think that the -- what's really amazing about these guys is obviously they are doing all this and innovating on this annual cadence. so, developers and their customers, the cloud, can say, hey, i know where they're going, i know i'm going to upgrade. that is so valuable. you know, even though it's not an enterprise business, apple does it every year, and that cadence is so reliable, and gives you such a pole position. and also, they're running, you know, everybody's trying to catch them, and they're running 150 miles an hour while everybody else is run 1g 00, i mean, it's going to be hard to catch these guys. >> to sort of piggy back on that, when you look at the stock, it's got 80%, 85% market share, we've discussed that. when they did the stock split, i had thought they were pulling a

rabbit out of a hat that they didn't need to try to take the attention away from pregmegabea going forward. the retail investor could buy fractional shares. you didn't need to split the stock to be able to do that. in your mind, i know you're bullish, but in your mind, how long before we get to that next hump in theed radio road, is it a two-year cycle? how long do they outperform? >> well, we think they continue to outperform, and it's really hard to know quarter to quarter, but we are showing sequential growth, and i think that what we need to see is they continue to beat and raise at least at some kay cad cadence. that's very doable. the margins -- one of the big surprises, margins have been able to stay in tact . that's rarefied air. that's why they deserve that high ev to sales. as long as we see that

sequential growth, we're going to keep going. one thing we wrote about recently, steve, is that there's 2$270 billion in cash they're going to generate in the next three years. if they add a buy-back to this, they don't want to say that, because that's something -- >> i just got the boosgoosebump. >> that's my question. what are they going to do with all the cash? >> this could be the thing that answers steve's question. no one's talking about it. and when do the model we do, it's a cash gusher. and there's just nothing they can do. this government's not going to let them buy anything big. they can't invest that much in r&d, it's just not possible. we have to get it as shareholders, and that could be one of the things that helps. it's not an insult. >> final button here, in the 120s now, what is your price target? >> my price target is 160 and we feel really good about that. >> ben, thank you. >> thank you, tyler. thanks, guys. all right, coming up, we're going to jump into japan, as the

yen sinks to its lowest level against the dollar in nearly 40 years. what it means for the japanese and u.s. economies. and a pair of fast movers heading in different directions. while whirlpool is flowing higher, and the results that had shares of general mills getting toasted. don't go anywhere, "fast money" is back in two. you're watching "fast money" here on cnbc. we'll be right back.

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welcome back to "fast money." thejapanese yen slipping to its lowest level against the dollar since 1986. the currency topping the key level of 160, the level at which the bank of japan has previously intervened. the central bank has suggested its quantitative easing plan could be bigger than expected next month, and may even include a rate hike. you've been watching this level. what is the jcb likely to do here? >> well, i think whether they acknowledge it or not, if they know it or not, i think they find themselves in a bit of a difficult situation. proper decorum limits me from saying exactly what it is, but they're screwed, in a world.

they intervened in april, dollar went from 160 down to 152 and here we are right back above it. that's in the face of interest rates going higher, as well. so, those two things shouldn't be happening. their economy is a bit of a mess. they have a demographics problem. and quite frankly, i mean, whatever they do at this point is going to be really problematic for their economy. you say, okay, why should we care here? because they own a little over $1 trillion worth of u.s. treasuries. and i don't think it's coincidence, tyler, that ten-year yields went up in a pretty marked fashion today on the back of dollar/yen going through 160. all along, one of the things i thought about interest rates, they'll go higher here in the u.s., predicated not in large part, but in some part of what's going on in japan. >> julie what's the economic implication of this? when you look at what a weaker currency means to a country that exports a lot, it means that their exports become, what, cheaper, more -- more available. can that help japan's economy? >> it can in some ways, but i

think there is a limit where that becomes helpful, and the challenge for them is, they cannot fight our fed, which is holding rates higher. it's, you know, like jerome powell is like derek jeter at a little league game. it's really hard to offset that, and i think that's a little bit of the situation of a lot of different economies. they don't feel like they can lower rates, because until the fed does it, it really doesn't help their economies all that much. >> karen? >> well, to another point on julie's point is, but everything they import is so expensive. >> there's the other side of that. raises their cost of living. >> can i ask guy a question? >> certainly. >> so, this trillion dollars, are you saying thatthey're not going to roll over, they're going to use that -- because they're rolling over at much higher percentage than they're going to earn on their own bonds, but are they going to use that -- trying to support the yen? >> i think that's one of the fears, that's exactly what they'll do. and they've been -- i don't want to say the buyer of last resort, they've been a pretty significant buyer. i don't think that's happening

now. and i think at some point there's a concern they're start selling u.s. treasuries. tim said this a couple nights ago. what we just talked about for the last four, five minutes, leads to the gold trade, i believe. nobody wants to say it, i get it, they're the fourth-largest economy in the world, i understand that. you know, karen said it in the break, but you are -- you are going to start hearing as this thing -- if it approaches 165, you're going to start seeing headlines about currency crisis and the ramifications it might have for global markets. >> what's the third large mes economy? >> u.s., china, germany, japan. but germany and japan are basically 4.2 ish. >> quick final button here? >> this is the problem, julie spoke about it. if the u.s. is holding rates, it's not just dollar/yen, it's dollar everything else. and there's usually a coordinated effort to stay on the same page. people are saying they're going to remain hawkish in the u.s., there's a limited time they can do so. >> all right, a lot more "fast money" to come.

here's what's coming up next. whirlpool making a splash. as general mills gets baked. how one company's potential appliance buyout and another's weak revenues are moving these stocks. plus, stress test trult res are out. so, the bank trade is coming up. why our next guest says the group is in great shape and could just keep climbing. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

welcome back to "fast money." shares of whirlpool topping the tape today, jumping 17%. that's the agitator right there, the agitating cycle. 70% on reports that germany's b bosch is considering an offer for the company. the stock is still down more than 16% so far this year. spin cycle here? >> yeah, so, i mean, even with this big jump, it's gone from, like, seven times earnings to eight times earnings. that's kind of crazy, right? obviously, without a lot of home sales, we don't need to replace all of those appliances again, and there was a big pull forward

during the pandemic. i am not sure the ftc -- >> the regulators going to let it go? >> bosch, that's kind of high end, whirlpool, which owns kit kitchenaid, maytag, that's a lower end. you'd think this -- this ftc, though, would be against aspirational appliances, maybe, just as they are against aspirational handbags and capri. i think this is going to be difficult, from a legal standpoint, but it makes a lot of sense. >> julie, any quick thoughts on bosch and -- >> sorry, bosch is like 8% of the market here and whirlpool is more like 28%, 30%. so, i think there's for sure reasons to support this business, because it has been struggling, and so, i could see the ftc, you know, looking on it more favorably, and for sure, there needs to be an improvement in margins and i think this transaction could help. >> interesting. meantime, shares of general mills, bit of a buzz kill in

today's session. the packaged foods giant dropping more than 4% after missing on revenue estimates in the latest quarter. the company also giving lackluster guidance for the current fiscal year, citing cost pressures. today's move bringing general mills into negative territory on the year. no crunch here, steve. >> yeah, if you go back, just on technicals, you go back to march, february/march levels, there seems to be support here, but as long as inflation stays high, people will reach for the secondary box, the generic box, not the one that they -- >> not the branded one. >> the brand they pay for. and as soon as inflation starts to break, then people go back to their old habits, unless they like the stale box that they got, so, that's what we're watching here, sort of a cyclical event with inflation and seeing out it performs. >> cereal is expensive. >> damn straight. the boxes get smaller, you pay the same price. that shrinkflation.

neither one you want to have as a human being. organic growth was down 6%. almost twice as bad as the street was looking for, meaning effectively, you know, they're unable to -- inflation is hurting them now. it was working for them, now they can't pass on their cost, and growth is slowing down, so -- steve is right, and 1 where do you buy the stock? it feels like it has another leg lower. by the way, this leg lower is on the back of a couple legs lower over the last s-- since april o last year. all righty, coming up, the fed announcing in just the last hour that all banks passed this year's stress test. but there are still concerning data points in the results. inside the action and what it means for the financials is next. and you're looking at the only major gambling stocks in the green this year. we'll dig in on what's waking down on the gambling sector, and whether you should roll the dice, right after this. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast.

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"fast money," everybody. stocks closing in the green, just barely. dow up 15 points, but still negative for the week. the s&p and nasdaq extending their gains since monday. shares of fedex and rivian holding onto yesterday's afterhours gains. fedex delivered strong profit guidance for the year. and suggested a possible sale of its freight unit. and rivian jumping after vw announced it's going to invest up to $5 billion in the ev maker. that stock saw its best day since going public back in 2021. rivian's move helping give amazon a boost. the biggest shareholder in the company saw its stock rise nearly 4% to a record. market cap above $2 trillion for the first time ever. that's rarefied air. shares of moderna, meantime, heading in the opposite direction, down 11% after the drug maker announced that its rsv shot showed just 50% efficacy after 18 months. shares of levi's dropping after

reporting the company beating on an earnings beat, but posting a small revenue miss. jim speaking to ceo michelle gass tonight at 6:00 p.m. on "mad money." federal reserve releasing its annual bank stress test results, and all banks involved this year, at least they passed. cnbc's leslie picker has the details. >> hey, tyler. that's right. the fed tested 31 banks, found that all of them would be able to withstand the severe recession. the results announced about an hour ago indicated that projected losses would amount to $685 billion in aggregate, and the cet-1 ratio would decline to a minimum of 9.9%. so, that's a higher absolute level and a deeper decline than last year, even though the test was fairly similar to the one conducted in 2023. senior fed officials believe the aggregate stress capital buffers, which determine how much more capital banks need to

hold as a result of these tests should go up modestly. the fed says the larger decline is due to increases in credit card balances and higher delinquency rates. corporate credit portfolios that have become riskier, as well as higher expenses and lower fee income. that cet-1 ratio saw some dispersion. jpmorgan maintaining the highest levels at 12.5%, while wells fargo had the lowest at 8.1%. banks can start -- and that's among the largest six banks. now, banks can start announcing their capital return plans after the market closes on friday, tyler, so, that's something that we could be looking for as it pertains to some market-moving potential among the banks. >> all right, leslie, thank you very much. for more reaction to the banks stress test, let's bring in the ceo of kbw. tom, was there anything in the stress test that surprised you?

pretty much go the way you expected, pretty good results here? >> yeah, i would say, first of all, it speaks to the soundness of the industry. in the first page of the report, they give a multi-year track record of the capital ratios for the banks, and can you see that the banks have done an incredible jobs of building capital over the last decade. so, i think the first piece of news is that there is no worry from the credit quality adverse selection basis. what we did see is that the fed had a little bit more cautious view of what the earnings of these banks would be in an adverse scenario, and like leslie just said, their capital ratios might be required to be a little bit higher than originally expected, so, maybe you might see a modest change in some earnings estimates, but we think the story remains intact, which is, you're going to see lots of dividend increases, you're going to see lots of buy-backs and we think the stocks are very well positioned to go into the quarterly

earnings in a couple of weeks. >> do you think the big banks will continue their sort of dominant position, not in terms of market share, but in terms of stock market performance over the mid size, the regionals, and how do explain that? >> well, they have less commercial real estate, and they have exposure to investment panninging. investment banking has been bouncing off the bottom in terms of revenue opportunity. like, for example, this quarter, we think goldman is going to be up 15% to 20% year over year, but their run rate is only 75% of what we think a typical run rate would be. so, the big banks tend to have less commercial real estate, they have more exposure to the business that's going to come first, which we think is investment banking, and they also tend to be a little bit more profitable, so, we have been focused on the bigger banks. and we can continue. >> karen? >> hi, thanks for being on. so, i think this -- as you suggested, wasn't really a surprise. what are you expecting from

basil end game? would that be a bigger deal for these banks? >> so, basil end game, we think, is going to be adjusted. the fed chairman has said that. and we think the banks have already been building capital to get ready for it, so -- so we think there's a very good chance that when you see it, it will be treated as good news, rather than bad news. because what was original little proposed was just a little bit too strong, we think, and would have really, i think, dinged the profitability of the banks and maybe even changed what financial services was going to look like in the next five to ten years. >> steve? >> tom, we always seem to be fighting the last war, so, when we look at the stress tests, what do you think that they should be doing? because we felt we had everything in order and then we had the regionals really hit a wall. what do you think that they're not doing that they should be doing, because this script was written a decade and change ago? >> thank you for that question. because the biggest missed

opportunity is deposit insurance reform. which is -- the banks that failed last year had plenty of capital, it's just that depositors got nervous about the bond losses. what we really need, we need to raise and take the fdic's suggestion and raise deposit insurance for small businesses, so, small businesses can keep their deposits in regional banks, and not feel like when there's stress, they need to go find the too big to fail bank. it's going to change what the industry looks like in ten years, if it isn't addressed soon. i think the capital situation's been dealt with, which you can see, even in the stress test. now, it's time to focus on deposit insurance reform. >> all right, fantastic. tom, thank you very much. let's trade these stocks, guy. >> steve asked the right question -- karen, too but steve is spot on. we talked about this at the time. if silicon valley bank -- they would have passed the stress test, just to be clear.

so, the stress test, to me, is somewhat meaningless. i get it. now, you'll see that silicon valley bank, all the same person, and they all pulled at one time, i get it. that was probably idiosyncratic, not going to happen again, however, how important are the tests? i'll say this quickly. kre does not trade well at all. if you look at the small banks, they do not trade -- they are trying to tell you something, and what the state of then coschumer is, and maybe what the state of small business isnow t biggest position, and i think is the most upside, but i think we're going to see a good quarter for them. i can't believe it starts in two weeks already. earnings -- >> yes. >> 12th, maybe? little longer than two weeks. >> jpmorgan, for sure. >> and we'll have more buy-backs. all right, coming up, is it time to ante up on the gambling stocks? why that group could be a betting bargain ahead. betting bargain ahead. "fast money" is back in two.ing, so i enrolled in umgc.

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welcome back to "fast money." of all the major gambling stocks, onto draftkings and flutter are in positive territory in 2024. traditional casino operators like mgm, caesars, las vegas

sands, and melco all in the red. but is now the time to place a bet on this sector? cnbc's contessa brewer has a closer look at what's weighing on the gambling stocks. contessa? >> tyler, good to see you. yeah, gaming stocks are lagging the s&p year to date. penn's off almost 30%, caesars off 20% almost, mgm, wynn, sands, and red, as you point out, only fan duel's parent flutter and draftkings in the green for the year. so, morning star says the whole group is an attractive bargain, especially caesars, which it says is undervalued by 48%. mgm by 28%, followed by wynn at 27%. the analyst says investors are shying away because of competition, because of regulatory risk like, you know, illinois raising the state taxes. worries over inflation hitting discretionary spend, but really what we've seen is that consumer reticence is just not showing up in gambling.

online and sports betting is fueling growth, and likely that's going to expand to more states. las vegas is on fire. it hit a new milestone in may we just learned today. air travel up 5% over last year. that's a record for may. macao still plodding upward in its recovery, but investors are spooked by macro china issues. just a note this week, analysts say. look, macao is insulated here, so, sea port research came out with a note, picking melco and wynn as the best short-term picks. las vegas sands, the pick through 2026. it's clear that if you think that this is a group that can weather the storm and the head winds in front of them, they are undervalued and might be a good bargain right now. tyler? >> contessa, thank you. karen, you take a chance on these? >> well, i do for the draft, you know, pick draftkings with briana seanna stewart who had a

phenomenal day on sunday. >> that's right. >> so, that was great. stock, this illinois thing, as contessa mentioned, where they just, you know, slapped this progressive tax in illinois, that was not good for draftkings. >> julie, any thoughts on the gambling stocks? >> yeah, it's really tricky, right, because you would expect to be more stability in the earns income streams on these businesses. and you look over history, it is all over the place. so, i think they trade cheap for a reason, because while you would expect demand to be relatively stable through cycles, it's not, and they end up having all of these factors, like, wage increases, et cetera, that make it kind of a less attractive sector to be invested in. >> too much instability there for julie. steve? tried las vegas, it was cheap, it got cheaper. so, you get macao, vegas, you did get vegas, and then you had singapore. wynn, you get macao and vegas. and mgm, you get more of a vegas tilt to it, if say gavegas is o

fire, it's not down that much this year, it's down 5%. maybe you want to stay close to home on the mgm. but karen's probably got the best way to play it right now, because people are thinking, new casino stocks, not the old ones that we're used to trading. >> legacy stocks in that sector. all right, coming up, shares of nike down more than 13% this year, but could earnings tomorrow help save the swoosh? how options traders are lacing up for that report, when "fast" up for that report, when "fast" returns. this is clem. clem's not a morning person. or a night person. and that person... is impossible to replace. you need clem. clem needs benefits. work with principal so we can help you help clem with a retirement and benefits plan that's right for him.

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welcome back to "fast money," everybody. nike shares just not doing it this year. down more than 13% in 2024. the sportswear stock reports earnings after the bell tomorrow, but despite this year's weakness, options traders are feeling bullish about the coming results. mike khouw joins us now to break down the action. mike, imean, you would kind of think that going into an olympics is a good time to own nike. >> yeah, i mean, i think the company is obviously looking to that as a potential propellant for it. right now, the options market is

implying a move of about 7% higher or lower after they report earnings, and we saw a lot of volume, it traded well over two times its average daily options volume today. calls significantly outpacing puts. interestingly, the busiest contract is the one that's actually seen a lot of activity this month, the september 100 calls, 8,000 of those traded for over $3.20 a contract. that adds to 36,000 of existing open interest. buyers of those calls are obviously betting that the stock move postpersoni ingpostearning higher. that would be a move of 10% over the next 12 weeks. >> mike, thank you. guy, any thoughts here? >> yeah, i do. inventories are down 13.25%. flat sales growth, which suggests to me maybe margins will be actually better than people expect this quarter. you've seen the selloff. i actually think it's sort of interesting here. that $90 level is sort of a bottom. i think you can trade nike from the long side. >> all right. >> yeah, cooling consumer demand, china demand has slowed. but you're going -- you started

off that conversation with mike, you're going to have a marketing event for the entire olympics, so, there's tremendous amount of competition, but i think it's the opportune time for nike to gain that spotlight back and going to do that with the olympics. >> julie, lace them up or not? >> i agree. one of my favorite things of the stock is when expectations are pretty soft, and i think that's the case here. they're really moderate. and i do think there's an opportunity for a refresh cycle for them that they desperately need. they need product innovation. so, i think there's potential here. >> yeah. karen, any thoughts on nike? >> i kind of agree with guy both on the -- the inventory issue, which was a good one, so, they're under inventory, and yeah, i think we're all sort of in agreement. >> all right, everybody agrees -- >> by the way. i got to go to the -- your daughter swims. i was in indianapolis for the olympic trials. >> really? >> that's bad ass. >> serious stuff. >> belly flop. >> dhint wear nikes in the pool.

>> no. they don't. all right, folks, final trades coming up in just a minute.

all right, time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. julie, you get to go first today. >> i'm still nervous investing in bank stocks, but i like software provides for them. ncno. >> karen? >> yeah, lululemon, great premiere company, lost its way a little, but i think it's found its way back. >> steve? >> i love the symbol. the stock is called samsara. the symbol is internet of things, iot.

it got obliterated on earnings. bounced right where i should have bounced, and i think it rises further. >> guy? >> you should go to youtube and watch his graduation speech -- >> high school? >> i'm going to watch it. >> yeah, i gavthe adtie gruaon speak. >> around. >> thank you for watching gas money. hey i am cramer. welcome to matt money. i'm trying to make you a little money. my job, to teach you about this business so call me. maybe we