still under $200, not sure why. >> all right. got the stress test results yesterday, of course. rob? >> vistra corps, up 125 year-to-date, but down 16% this past month. in the secular story, it's still in tact. >> dominion. i drifted down and now at 5.5% yield. >> see you on "closing bell." "the exchange" is now. ♪ ♪ thank you very much, scott. welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead. value and convenience are increasingly more important to consumers.separating the winners from the losers. matt boss is here, and he's right over there with his playbook for the second half. nvidia is lower again, but our guest says ignore the short-term moves, there are plenty of catalysts ahead. here's here to make his case. and the first presidential debate is tonight.

we'll arm you with the stats, the policy talks, anything that could matter to investors. let's start with today's markets. stocks have been trading in and out of the red at various times today, the dow up 122 points at the high, at the low, down 79. up about that much now. the s&p, a lot of minor moves, up just one point today. all except the dow, by the way, are about to end the second quarter higher. the nasdaq is up about a quarter of 1%. if you haven't heard yet, walgreens, what a story here, down 25%, biggest loser in the s&p today. why? they posted earnings, they missed on the bottom line, they slashed their full-year earnings guidance, citing a challenging consumer environment and could be closing a significant number of stores. shares on pace for their worst day ever. this is the lowest level at $12 since 1997, and isn't this a dow component? at least it was. not anymore. it's already out.

h&m, plunging, down 13%. the company predicting a drop in june sales, warning the 10% operating margin this year is getting harder to reach. shares closing above their worst day since 2001. and levi's are also lower, their worst day ever, the denim giant attributed the sales miss to head winds. here's what the ceo said about customer strength. >> our consumer is proving to be resilient. we control what we control, and certainly there's some level of uncertainty as we look to the back half of the year and beyond. >> all that said, nike is on deck to report after the bell. shares are fractionally higher today, but they have struggled since january, down 13%.

my next guest has the retail coverage list. he says the days of raising prices without improving product are over. it's all about value and convenience, and he's got the names positioned to deliver that. here onset is matthew boss from jpmorgan. matt, great to have you here. >> great to be back. >> breathless coverage today, because it is pretty astonishing. what do you make of these massive stock moves, first of all? >> look, the backdrop that we see from a macro perspective based on our work is a selective recession. what that means you are going to have extreme volatility. we think the higher income consumer, a lot of wealth creation. nearly $40 trillion by our jpmorgan economist. so that higher income consumer are being more choiceful, demanding best in class brands in the channel where they can get it conveniently. the low income consumer, that's the melting ice cube. and that's where i think you're

seeing on the discount side some of the consolidation and a number from a competitive perspective of weakness that you are seeing out there. >> does that mean you think one is coming or are we already in from a retail point of view? >> i think we're in it. the higher income consumer, plenty fine. $40 trillion of wealth creation. that consumer makes up half of consumer spending. the lowest cohort of consumers out there, the lowest 20%, makes up 10% of consumer spending. that's the consumer you see the headlines around, that is gravitating to the value propositions. and i think that value convenience, that's where it's a lot more competitive today, especially with a lot of the big box and e-commerce out of the pandemic. >> when i look at the grab bag of declines today, the fact that it's walgreens and h&m, is that a low income consumer story, just an e-commerce story and how amazon is not only supplanting

the pharmacy trip, but sup planting the quick fast fashion trip you might have used to go on? >> it's combination of all. if you take a step back, one of the things that changed coming out of the pandemic is the consumer backdrop became more convenient. you have buy on line, pick up in store from walmart, target, all of the grocery stores and breadth of offering with e-commerce as you think about amazon and the pure play e-commerce digital plays. when you put that all together, it's a lot more competition at brick and mortar for the historical value players, which would be the wall greens of the world, the dollar generals of the world, a lot more cut throat competition and being equal on price to the discounters might not be enough. now you might not be as convenient, given that technology advance that's happened outside of their world. >> retail is a big favorite of hedge funds and investors that might be able to make more money that way, if you can find the

beaten down player and jump in on an inflection point. look at abercrombie and the increases we have seen are there. where are the stocks that are priced in, which ones are vulnerable to further declines and which ones can get the right sizing behind them and become more interesting opportunities? >> the way we size it up, that consumer, as you said, the days of just pushing price are over. you need product improvement. so off-price retail, tjx, burlington, ross stores, they have brands for great value. they're not pushing price, it's that value component where the consumer comes in and they're wowed. so off price sets are very well. consistent unit growth stories. ali is more in the mid cap fits really well in the nonapparel side of that. dollar tree is very interesting in terms oh of that discount world. a story line that could have a greater growth profile going forward than looking back. and then you have to be number one on the brand side.

so a beurken stock. i think on the value side, some of the changes that a pbh is putting into place makes a lot of sense from a profitability perspective. and last, i would say on that cruise and leisure side. look, that is a space very similar. winners versus losers. you have to have the value proposition. and the cruise space sets up really well. royal caribbean, top of the list. then viking and carnival also set up very well. >> we'll circle back to that in a moment. on the downside, i know it's hard to call out those name where is you think that's the real story. but where are the stocks in retail that really don't have this new reality yet priced in? >> what we're looking for is back-end loaded stories where you need improvement in the back half of the year. there's going to be disruption, with the election coming up and tonight's debate, it's going to kick it off from a noise perspective. so as we look to the back half of the year, i would put a

nordstrom in that camp, a footlocker in that camp. and then i think -- kind of thinking through alpha rhythms that are just not as clean today or from a value relative to convenience, it's those stuck in the middle models where they're the not the most convenience, that's where you trade water into what i think is going to be a very volatile back half of the year. >> you said look for the need n needing that second half rebound. >> i think it's going to continue to be challenging. that's the winners and losers setup that i think you had. the interesting thing is you had this prepandemic, you had the consumer backdrop that was volatile. you had the consolidation at brick and mortar and this shift towards e-commerce. what you have on the other side, everything is accelerated. >> speaking of the shifting commerce, amazon is planning to launch a discount store to attract the value customers who normally shop at temu and shein.

melissa got an inside look at the new private label push over at sam's club. what can you tell us? >> kelly, costco has attracted a devoted following since the '90s. the brand may have items that is a major reason why net sales in the u.s. are more than twice as high as sam's club. now they are stepping up efforts to close that gap by making over its private label. sam's club has launched or reformulated more than 1200 items, and it's expanded categories like home and apparel. the ceo told me sam's club drew inspiration from its chief competitor but said it's creating merchandise in a unique way, testing ideas can customers before being green lighted. the company sent 20 outdoor grill prototypes to members, kelly. >> id like to be in that testing

group. melissa, thank you. so, again, maybe an overdue for sam's club here. it has a lot of ground to make up. >> as you think about private label relative to national brands, you have to deliver that underlying quality and value. and that's, again, as i circle back to the off-price retailers selling national brands at great values, that's why they're winning. as well as these treasure hunt type of marketplaces on e-commerce and brick and mortar. so the lines in my opinion are completely blurred. there is no department store versus specialty retailer versus inline store. the consumer wants the brand, they want to buy at the best value in the most convenient way. if you check those three boxes, you can continue to win regardless of the macro backdrop. and in that selective recession, i think the macro backdrop is good enough and koconducive enoh that you have the rest of those components checked, you can put forward a successful retail story. >> even in a challenged topline.

melissa, what can you tell us about these amazon efforts to launch a temu or shein rival? if that's what the consumer is seeking out, it sounds like they're going to be maybe looking to check out those offerings that they haven't already. >> yes, kelly. it's gotten very competitive, especially in the fashion space. people are looking for not just price but quality. that's really cutting through here, that shein, while it's been known for that price point, it's very quick to respond to trends. so amazon is feeling some of the heat from that, and know that it needs to lean into the space to keep up when it comes to clothing. >> indeed. you mentioned a moment ago cruise lines. i think that's a really interesting thing to say hey, the consumer is going to be challenged and under pressure. now is the time to look at cruise lines. from your point of view, this is where the consumer sees value. they're still in an experience

shall mind shet. >> if you think about that value proposition, cruise today are 30% cheaper than the airline plus resort fees. so the value proposition is double than 2019. that's because of the stop and start nature of cruise during a period when everybody else was raising price. what that has done sit's waved in new customer acquisition. on a multigenerational format. so if you think about a royal caribbean, and that idea where i was saying you cannot raise price without the product, think about the mega shifts like icon of the seas that they have launched. i mean, completely different proposition with water parks on top of the ships, and then the private destinations when you arrive at something like that, you're arriving at a theme park. so it gives cruise lines to compete a lot more head-to-head with orlando and vegas, and appeal to that multigenerational. so royal caribbean, i would put

at the forefront of that, best in class. >> is that still the -- >> that's the next leg here. you have multiples that are still below prepandemic on margins that are above. by the end of this year, royal caribbean's metrics will be back to investment grade. carnival is a near behind and norwegian and viking there, as well. so the debt and balance sheet are less of a concern. you now have a consumer that wants experience and wants to make those memories, especially post pandemic. and the value component combined with the product improvement, again, goes back to that checklist and i think it checks all of them. what is you said about multigenerational, so many families i know, the parents are flying from one place, the family from another, they're all going together. let's end with a company from h&m and walgreens.

what does h&m do in this environment, what does walgreens do? >> i think this comes back to on the apparel side, you need to have the best in class from a quality, from a value, and then from a convenience perspective. because it is a very -- in my opinion, zero sum game. and so as you think about national brands relative to specialty retailers, you have to hit that fashion component. the markets needs to be there. you brought up abercrombie before. they've expanded the total addressable market, and they are on the winner's side. so in my opinion, the net zero sum game, there has on the losers. that brings the competition and the cut throat promotional activity. but if you're selling the right fashion, as we know from luxury, the consumer is willing to pay anything, and sealing from that perspective. as you think about brick and mortar, value and convenience,

it's not good enough to be at parity if you're not as conv convenient. in some of these classes whether it's amazon or walmart, you don't even need to go to the box today. that brings that convenience element top of mind, which i think you could make the argument now creates the consolidation that we're seeing across different parts of brick and mortar. >> so hear others tell us the consumer is buying, the man who knows it better than anyone says not necessarily. that's interesting. thank you for your time today. >> great to be on. consumer definitely not finding value in the housing market as prices and rates remain high. and a day after those disappointing new home sales, pending home sales just dropped to a new low. diana olick, what is going on? >> pending home sales in may dropped to the lowest level sense the realtors began this series in 2001. these are existing homes, not new. even lower, though, than those first months of the pandemic when everything shut down.

this pending count is based on contracts signed during the month. now rates have spiked in april, so we saw a sharp drop in pending sales in april. rates fell back in may, likely why the street actually expected this to be a gain, not the drop. oh, well. but prices are still very high and still gaining. inventory continues to improve, but much of that is that some homes are just sitting on the market longer. active listings are up roughly 35% from a year ago, coming off a near record low. there's still very little supply on the lower end. most of it is on the higher end of the market. going back to prices, they're still gaining, but we're starting to see more of a trend in the annual gains shrinking. we got an exclusive look at may home price data coming out next week from ice mortgage technology. it shows home price growth slipped to 4.6% from 5.3% in april. that is the slowest growth rate in seven months. the realtors are still

forecasting a busier second half to the disappointing first half of this year. they predicted rates dropping and price gains at least stabilizing. and kelly, i said earlier today, i don't exactly agree with them. >> ha. real quickly, you saw "the wall street journal" had a piece about whether you're buying at the top of the market if you're buying right now. i'm curious for your comment on that. >> look, we talked about it earlier with the case schiller numbers and affordability being just in the toilet right now. it's terrible. but are you buying at the top of the market? i'm not sure about that, as we see home prices grow, they're not growing as much, but they're still growing. we don't know what the inventory situation is going to look like at the end of this year, which could inflate prices more. >> diana, thank you very much. i want to draw your attention to shares of chewy. they are surging after keith gill posted an animated dog on the platform x. shares were halted for volatility, but they are up 27%

as followers try to divine what this image we're seeing here could translate into for his plans in chewy shares. gamestop had a brief surge after his last involvement there, going back a month or two ago. but it did prove to be short lived and the gamestop ceo is chewy's founder, ryan cohen. coming up, box is going all-in on ai. the cloud company is out with new features, including the integration of chatgbt. the ceo joins us with the details and a look at how clients are using it. plus, we're counting down to the first of two debates with joe biden and former president trump. we'll break down each candidate and tell you what wall street is watching for. stay with us. "the exchange" is back after this. >> this is "the exchange" on cnbc.

dave's company just scored the comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. high five! high five... -i'm on a call. it's 5 years of reliable, gig speed internet... five years of advanced security... five years of a great rate that won't change. yep, dave's feeling it. yes. but it's only for a limited time. five years? -five years. introducing the comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. powering 5 years of savings. powering possibilities.

welcome back. shares of box are moving higher by 2% today as the cloud storage company launches new ai improvements and features. say they'll remove limits that users can perform and will integrate chatgbt 4.0 later this year. for more, let's bring in the ceo of box. aaron, good to see you. >> hey, good to be here. thanks for having me. >> for those of us who get a

little lost on the details of enterprise ai and where we stand, just explain to us where you think the most excitement is these days and what you're trying to do to get in front of that? >> sure. as you can imagine, we certainly think of enterprise ai as the most exciting part of ai. so that's where we think the most significant value is going to be delivered. what you're really seeing is this new era of enterprise software that is going to be far more intelligent than ever before. and this is really about breaking, you know, new ground with leading ai models built directly into the fabric of software. so in our case, it's really about delivering intelligent content management experiences. imagine being able to ask all of your contracts questions about what are the riskiest contracts that you have, or looking at marketing assets and improving those marketing assets or getting better advice for sales reps when they ask questions of their marketing data. or being able to quickly look through a trove of customer

information to find trends and analysis from that information. so reallyit's a breakthrough in being able to ask questions of your data, automate work flows across your enterprise, and better secure your most important information. and so with box ai, we're bringing all that value to our customers. it's backed by the leegading ai models, starting with openai. >> isn't that what salesforce is trying to do? how -- don't all of these different kind of providers to the enterprise want to be able to offer ai features that the employee sitting at their desk is going to use? why turn that your tools or platform opposed to one of the myriad of others? >> actually, we think ai is going to be baked into all software going forward. it will be like cloud was, which is you should expect that your software is intelligent. within box, we have 115,000 customers, which entrust box with their most critical

documents and assets. so we're bringing the full power of ai to all of that content. that's a unique experience. so we think it will be very powerful use cases across all enterprise software. but we think that will be nowhere will it be bigger than with all of your enterprise content. so imagine being able to, again, ask all of your documents questions, look through all of your data, summarize information, and rapidly accelerate your work flows and that is our unique value proposition we have for customers. >> do you have to pay openai for access to chatgbt 4.0? >> the way it works we built an abstraction layer that connects to ai models. the customer pays us in the form of upgrading to our enterprise plus plan or purchasing api calls to our ai platform. and then from there, we let the customer basically pick their vendors, starting with openai. while we handle all of the payment of the billing so they

don't have to worry about that infrastructure cost, that is being routed through us. >> is elon musk going to say box is not allowed at any of the companies i run? >> we hope not. he'll be able to use any ai model he uses. we can imagine a future where x ai is built into the box, as well. we want to have a lay they are allows any customer to plug in which model they choose. we've done a lot of work with openai for a couple of years, so this is our default experience for now. but our job is to make sure we're bringing all of the innovation of ai to our customers in a secure way. >> can you help expand my horizons? i think i'm on chatgbt 3 or claude or perplexity. tell me how transformative how 4 and 5.0 are. each model isn't just a little better, it's like thousands of times better, and what does that mean in real life? >> yeah, so actually i think

these differences will be more felt in enterprise context than even in a lot of consumer context. so just as you have experienced, probably some limited distinction between ai models, because right now they're so powerful for a lot of personal use cases. in the enterprise, these differences matter a ton. so being able to take let's say a 200-page contract and have the equivalent of the best lawer on the planet review that contract and provide a summary or risky clauses in that document that you need to pay attention to, that's going to be wildly different between the leading model and even just the sort of, you know, median model that's out there. so being able to have breakthroughs in context length, which is really how much data can you ask the ai a question about, being able to have breakthroughs in intelligence levels, which chatgbt 4.0 and 5 and beyond will continue to accelerate. and then the lowering of the cost of ai tokens, which is the

underlying unit of what you're paying for in these ai interactions, first of all, all three dimensions have continued to improve, quality, cost, and volume, and this will continue to increase. so we love the fact that this is a very dynamic and competitive land scape. and what's amazing for all enterprises is you have tens of billions of dollars in rnd and breakthrough technology that is being delivered on your behalf. now we're in a moment where we can take advantage of this technology. that's what box ai is doing and why we wanted to offer this to our customers. >> i have many more questions. i will save them for the next time. i appreciate your time today. >> thank you. >> i see how sit a productivity at hand. coming up, rivian is giving back some of yesterday's 23% gain after announcing that deal with volkswagen. now they're holding its investor day and investors are sending the arshes lower.

we'll bring you all the headlines when "the exchange" continues.

welcome back, everybody. i'm tyler mathisen with your news update. judge eileen cannon rejected donald trump's request to suppress evidence seized during the mar-a-lago raid in that florida criminal case. but the judge did schedule a future hearing on whether audio notes from trump's lawyer could be excluded as evidence. prosecutors obtained those notes after then chief judge of the d.c. district court ruled they couldn't be protected by attorney-client privilege. so that one is still on the docket, so to speak. americans may be having buyer's remorse when it comes to electric cars. nearly half of ev owners say they are very likely to switch back to a gas-powered car for their next purchase. the biggest reason for the shift is the lack of available chargers, followed by the total cost of owning an ev. and nbc announced its plan to use an ai generated version

of al michaels' voice during the summer olympics coverage. the peacock daily olympic recap from our sister company will feature a near perfect re-creation of the legendary broadcaster's voice. michaels said he was skeptical of the plan, but hearing the re-creation and user customization changed his mind. "the exchange" is back after th. is we are so excited to welcome you to our community. today is all about you. (♪♪) (♪♪)

while i am a paid actor, and this is not a real company, there is no way to fake how upwork can help your business. upwork is half the cost of our old recruiter and they have top-tier talent and everything from pr to project management because this is how we work now.

atlanta fed president saying today he expects slower progress down towards the 2% inflation rate. because of that, he supports a cut before hitting that target number. my next guest sees that cut as a catalyst and says investors should hangen to the mega caps. matt, good to have you. is it correct, you're sticking with nvidia and the like? >> that's right, kelly. i don't know if nvidia necessarily is the top pick, but absolutely i think you've got to stick with the momentum winners in this market. there's all the reason to believe in quality and growth going forward for sure. >> so broaden that out for me.

it's the mag seven, i can choose to love it or leave it, and you think i should keep nitit in th portfolio? >> there's a lot of differentiation between the names in the mag seven. when you look at the alphabets, the microsofts and amazons of the world, these are names that are generating tens of billions of dollars in free cash flow per year that are going to be investing upwards of $200 billion just into artificial intelligence over the next year. so there's a big opportunity going forward. and when you look at the consistent growth that they deliver, you know, these are the names that you want to have to stabilize your portfolio and to keep one the benchmark. in addition to that, what i tell a lot of our clients is that when you even look and broaden out beyond the magnificent seven and a lot of the big momentum names that are working, there is a lot beneath the surface, it just gets skewed because dispersion is so high across the average stock. when you look at the industrials

complex and across some of the utilities, you look across financial services, there's a lot of companies within that, that are working. i tell clients to not chase the market higher, leverage down, but lean into these parts of the market that are not as widely owned as the magnificent seven while still holding on to those key quality growth names. >> you like the big banks? >> yeah, i think the big banks make a lot of sense. it's clear that the economy is, you know, i think a soft landing is a very good way to describe it. the consumer is not falling off of a cliff. growth is softening. it's softening back towards trend, which i think is a very important distinction to make than the doom and gloom narratives that might be out there. you're still seeing general consumer indicator is strong, mortgage books are okay, you're not seeing losses across a lot of them. even credit card providers,

they're still doing okay. so i think the big banks have leverage to a lot of different parts of the economy. and with investment banking and m&a starting to come back, especially if rates come down, my base case is for a december cut. i think you're going to see that provide more of an inflection point for earnings, and valuations still look really fair. so that's a part of the market that i think looks very attractive. >> banks, energy, you've got utilities. you like nextera. matt, thanks for your time today. appreciate it. coming up, we're a little more than seven hours away from the first presidential debate, and it's a historic one. the first time a sitting president will face off against his predecessor. what the outcome could mean for the election and your money, next. check out shares of his and hers, down 17% today. the report alleges hims weight

loss offerings exploit an fda loophole, allowing the sale of drugs from pharmacies. hunter brook argues they have not set up a clear path for that to happen. the firm says one employee was able to get a prescription for ghp-1 knock offs without speaking to a doctor or medical records. cnbc reached out to him for comment and was directed to a post writing -- >> before today's 9% drop, shares were up 48% since announcing the weighlot ss program in late may. "the exchange" is back after "the exchange" is back after this ♪ i'm always coming home ♪

it's time. yes, the time has come for a fresh approach to dog food. everyday, more dog people are deciding it's time to quit the kibble and feed their dogs fresh food from the farmer's dog. made by vets and delivered right to your door precisely portioned for your dog's needs. it's an idea whose time has come. ♪♪ (tony hawk) skating for over 45 years has taken a toll on my body. i take qunol turmeric because it helpscome.

with healthy joints and inflammation support. why qunol? it has superior absorption compared to regular turmeric. qunol. the brand i trust. [crowd chanting] they ignored your potential, and mocked your ambition. but it's not the critic who counts. with every swing and block, your game plan never changed. ♪♪ some still call it luck. let them. because you know what it's always been. inevitable. ♪♪ ♪♪ [thunder rumbles] ♪ ♪

♪ ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ ♪ [thunder rumbles] ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ welcome back. tonight's debate marks the first time president biden and former president trump have appeared together since taking the debate stage four years ago. with both political and personal

jabs widely expected, we want to dig into the numbers ahead of the big event. so steve liesman is here with a look at the economy's performance under each candidate. we have new findings on their fiscal records, and libby is here with the potential impact at the polls. welcome to all of you. steve, kick it off. >> okay, kelly. first, economic comparisons between any two presidential years are difficult, but especially these two. presidents are handed an economy, and don't have much impact for the first several months. and then this head-to-head race raises the question, how do you treat the pandemic and the dramatic effects on growth, jobs, and inflation? well, here's a stab. biden beats trump on gdp 2.9 to 2.4. trump's numbers improved take out the pandemic and biden's come down a bit if you take out the surge after the pandemic. biden had lower average on employment, 4.1 to 5% for trump. and biden created far more jobs.

but we took out the pandemic effects. the losses for trump and the initial gains for biden, it gets closer. but biden's numbers are still better, you can see right there. biden had stronger capital spending beating trump with 31%. trump did better with the stock market. but inflation, there's the major knock on biden. prices up 19%, just 7.8% for trump. this led to a decline in real or inflation adjusted hourly earnings of minus 0.2%. that compares to 7.1% during the trump administration. but adjusted hourly earnings have come back. year over year gains have been positive. not enough, however, to make up for the losses. there are early signs that rate hikes are starting to bite the economy, just as the election nears. the electorate could see lower inflation rates, but the danger for biden and the game for trump

could be rising unemployment as it comes time to pull the lever in november. kelly? >> steve, thank you very much. steve liesman. aomon now. >> a new report today says donald trump presided over a spending increase of $4.9 trillion in his first term, while joe biden has overseen $3.8 trillion in spending increases in his first three years and five months in office. how did the committee arrive at these numbers? they found that president trump approved $5.3 trillion of gross primary or non-interest spending increases over ten years. $2.5 trillion of that, non-covid related. that was partially offset of $500 billion in spending cuts. the net spending increase is $2.1 trillion. for biden, he approved $5.7 trillion of gross primary

spending increases, and $3.9 trillion without covid. but biden also had $1.9 trillion of primary spending cuts, which were offsetting to the higher spending in the biden era. without covid, biden spending increase would be $2.0 trillion. bottom line, given trump's massive tax cuts, the committee says his record on the total deficit is much worse than biden's. trump added $8.4 trillion, opposed to biden of $4.3 trillion. kelly, back to you. >> with the polls effectively in a dead heat right now, let's turn to libby cantrell what this means for markets. great to have you here. so some early thoughts? >> yeah, kelly, great to be here. so i think we're looking for really three things tonight. number one is viewership. what we know from the 2020 first debate between these two gentlemen, 73 million people tuned in. that is a lot.

the third largest audience in any presidential debate. this is the earliest debate ever in the cycle. are people really going to tune in on a thursday evening on a summer thursday? the second is, are these two gentlemen talking about their future visions or are they relitigating the past? both of them are prone to be somewhat defensive. joe biden about his record on the economy, as you just heard. president trump relitigating the 2020 election, as swing voters do not want to hear about the past, they want to hear about the future. and the third thing, kelly, is not really what these gentlemen are saying but how they are saying it. as you very well know, debates are very performtive. they are offtimes more about style than they are substance. so is joe biden in particular reassuring those swing voters that not only can he manage

through a 90-minute debate but manage four more years. similarly, is president trump more disciplined, is he not interrupting as much, is there not as much crosstalk? so i think those thing also really, in many ways, influence what the polling looks like in the days and weeks after this debate. >> you point out, i was surprised to learn this is the earliest presidential debate ever. it is bizarre -- maybe not bizarre without know whose trump vice presidential pick will be. >> it's bizarre in that they're not even the formal nominees. the debates have always been after the conventions, after the formal nomination process. but i do think that joe biden's campaign in particular viewed this as a really necessary -- we are telling our clients that polling is obviously always there's going to be polling error.

but polling becomes more predictive as we get closer to the election. the polling has been very stable. so polling looks as if it does now in say october, trump will be the favorite to win. so i do think the biden campaign is very aware of that, and is trying to use this opportunity to reset the race. as you said, yes, unprecedented. we don't even know who his running mate is, and neither of them is the official nominee. >> just a fun wrinkle. in the meantime, watching congress is something that, you know, the more you watch these cycles, you go of course the president matters the most to what happens the following four years, but congress is so tight these days. i heard when they interviewed the house speaker, gerrymandering means you no longer get these majorities in the house, and we know the presidential race is going to be tight. so what is that going to mean, effectively gridlock for four years? >> yeah, kelly, it's such an

important point, something that we're reinforcing with our clients. the presidential election captures the imagination. in terms of the things that markets care about. fiscal policy in particular, tax cuts, more spending. that all goes through congress. so the composition of congress matters just as much in terms o matters just as much, as those in the white house. the senate is re narrowly control by the senate, the house very narrowly controlled by reps. we could have another split congress, which to your point would probably be better for the deficit. we have a joke that the biggest loser in november, is problem. economy. if the they win by congress, it will be by the narrowest margin,

to speaker johnson's point, that makes big, bold legislate hard to pass. >> i think we just set up our next installment of this discussion. thank you so much for your time. libby cantrell with pimco. coming up on the heels of the deal with voke wagon. rivian is promising slashing of costs. we'll dig into the hopes, and promises, next.

when you need to prepare for unpredictable adventures... (gasp) you need weathertech. [hot dog splat.] laser measured floorliners front and rear. [drink slurp and splat.] (scream) seat protector to save the seats. [honk!] they're all yours! we're here! hey, i knew you were comin'... so i weatherteched the car! can we get ice cream? we can now.

kid proof your vehicle with american made products at weathertech.com.

♪ e ♪ welcome back. rivian is holding its investor meeting today, just a day after announcing a longtime partnership with vox wag en. phil lebeau has with what management had to say, all the goals, hopes and dreams for the company. >> they pretty much reiterated their guidance

that's a reiteration of 57,000 vehicles, and they expect to be positive profit per vehicle in the fourth quarter. that's important. when you look at the q1 lost person vehicle, they do have about $ billion in liquidity, at least that's what it was at the end of q1. we'll see what it is after when they error the q2 results. the big part of the bull thesis here, people believing it will ultimately pay off, they can bring down their costs substantially they believe we

can cut material costs by to%, and then when the r-2s come online, they can cut material costs even further. why am i showing you tesla? because anytime we talk rivian, we have the guidance from, as we will for tesla, the q2 numbers. that's going to drive a lot of what happens near term with shares of tesla. so, i would call somewhere around when tesla has its results. >> we knew that rivian was losing a lot on its vehicles, while they processes can probably help. i think they have to help to earn -- we still have so much deflates, so it's just going to make it even more complicated. >> right.

if you are in shares of arrive jan, i think right now you're realizing we've just got to make it to r23. they're ot mystic that their logistics and manufacturing, they can continue lower them. all right. phil, thank you very much. we appreciate it. that's it for ching chick. next on "power lunch" we'll see with the ceo of mccormick. shares are up nearly 5%. i'll join tyler on the other

side of this quick break. sure, i'm a paid actor, and this is not a real company, but there is no way to fake how upwork can help your business. search talent all over the world with over 10,000 skills you may not have in house. more than 30% of the fortune 500 use upwork because this is how we work now.

hey, everybody, not big moves for the market right now. >> holding pattern maybe before tomorrow's inflation report, but there's a lot of activities in individual symptoms. we stocks. one stock moving higher following its results is mccormick, the spice company. how have they done the past few years? ce