days at the earliest. >> 72 hours. >> there's a lot of conversations clearly going on behind the scenes now. >> how great was that, that we had doug burnham on after that? what a day. what a week. what a year. what a life. i still think it might be a simulation, and it might all just be happening to me. don't you ever think that? i think so. it's 9:00. we're going to do it again next week. probably be just as crazy. please join us. "squawk on the street" is next. andrew, come back. we'll see you. >> i'm coming back. see you. ♪ good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer at post nine of the new york stock exchange. faber has the morning off. final trading day of the month, the quarter, and the first half as futures go green on this friendly core pce print, mostly in line, annual rate down to 2.6%. bonds do catch a bid. ten-year, 4.26%. road map begins with politics, though, and your portfolio.

markets are pricing in the chance of a trump victory or the chance of a new candidate after last night's debate performance. nike shares are tumbling after that sales and guidance miss, and as we said, futures in the green. the fed's preferred inflation gauge does show continued slowing inflation. let's begin with last night's debate between the president and former president trump and the implications for markets, jim. the word disaster being used quite a bit in "the journal" today regarding president biden. does it spur you to make any investment decisions? >> yes. and i'm glad you asked me that way because i don't have that much more to add. michael is my guy for the most part, jpmorgan, because he does talk about what happens if biden drops out and does reference the fact that this is the opportunity, perhaps -- he keeps saying, a newsom. let's leave it at that. what i would like to talk about is just that there are very specific issues that are pulled forward. if you do think there's a greater chance now that trump will win than what you must

worry about are -- is a true trade war with china, not a tit-for-tat, but an actual thing that would make it so that two of the stocks that are absolutely horrendous here anyway, starbucks and nike, they would be most hurt. we'll go into nike later. nike actually had the ability of making starbucks look good, which is quite a statement right there. >> yes. >> but one of the things that you want to worry about is powell, because a lot of people feel that powell's soft landing, so you might have a change of course there. who knows, maybe pardons peter navarro. he's the most anti-china person i have ever read and had the ability to talk to. you might say, listen, there's no more reason why kroger-albertson's will be blocked. there won't be any blocking of tapestry. there won't be a move to break up or stymie amazon. apple will no longer be in the crosshairs of the justice department. there will be a sense that there can be more media mergers, and

then i think that one of the -- we want to take some odd ones, something like the plaintiffs bar will be neutered, which means you have to go by j&j. they benefitted from the bankruptcy rule involving opioids and the sacklers yesterday. if people want a stock, i always come up with a stock that really does work, and if david faber were here, he would say, what's the key to this market? if you want one that's down 36% since the ruling by biden, it's new fortress energy, which is a very good company. most directly affected by the temporary pause in the approval of new lng export. trump has said, that goes, the temporary pause. >> he did get at least one approval yesterday regarding some of these louisiana facilities, not for the export, but parts of those are moving ahead. >> when i had wes on, wes is quite a visionary. the idea was that who is going to most take advantage of the fact that we are the most -- the biggest exporter?

semper just had that deal yesterday with the saudis, which was incredible. that's chip martin. he's an amazing ceo. i'm trying to be very practical in this. more mergers, less business with china, maybe nafta comes up in 2026, and that -- that goes. >> right. >> so, i don't want to -- >> you pull the trigger on these? or are these just decisions that are on deck? >> that's a great question. i'm afraid to pull the trigger, because i do think that when you read a lot of the democrats who are saying that he can't be the nominee, and you decide that there's a nominee, and nominees make it so that you think trump's beatable, then these things are just going to bury you. you can't do that. if you think that trump's more likely to win, i just gave you ten ideas. >> so, you are assembling a playbook. it doesn't mean that you are actually picking up the phone. >> no, i have to. i mean, i don't have -- my

politics are opaque and not valuable. there are so many great people who are speaking. the previous three hours of our network was dwoevoted to what wl happen. but when you get a happy birthday to elon musk -- >> 53. >> elon musk is very pro-trump, and remember, trump is not -- trump's anti-union versus the president, who's the most union president. trump is favored nonunion, and biden's pro-union, so you could say, listen, buy tesla, but you know what? somebody's been thinking about tesla because that stock has had a remarkable move. >> it's a complicated trade, tesla, because trump hasn't been essentially -- exactly behind the ev push. >> no, he hasn't. that's why the ones i gave are very pure. remember, the most pro oil and gas president that we have had is going to make it so that if you wanted to buy export lng, if you wanted to buy the idea that

oil will be unfettered, there's a lot of companies to buy. >> peter thiel talking to andrew, by the way, in a fantastic week of coverage out of aspen, did say, in an a.b. test, he would err for trump, but he said that post-election, there might be some buyer's remorse because an election is about the choice between two. would you be worried about things like labor supply if deportations became a real thing? >> labor supply is the big issue. when we've interviewed the labor secretary or anyone from the administration, they never talk about it, because obviously, they think it's a hot button. what matters is how many visas. they won't tell us. they haven't told. look, if you run a small business, and you're hiring illegal immigrants, they're going to go after you. they still do. one of the reasons why people use adp, why they use paychex, because they want to immunize themselves, because therefore

it's vetted. i think that that's a very good point, that wages would go up, and that's an unintended consequence, but i think that, to make -- that's so many leaps forward that i'm -- i feel like there are i am pro-trump. i am just saying, this is what's going to happen. i'm not pro-trump, not pro-biden. i'm pro helping people make money, and if i want to help people make money, to say that you should go buy lng is to say, no, if you believe that trump wins, then you should do this, because i don't want to ever say, look, this is what i would go buy. >> right. >> it's too risky. i can't hurt people. >> there's going to be a lot of twists and turns, not just here, but we got our first round of snap polls in france on sunday where le pen's lead continues to widen. >> look, i mean, if you're a nationalist, it's very interesting. i mean, it's nationalism versus price, by the way. apple cuts price. they get sales. so, price trumps nationalism when it comes to china.

that just shows you how convoluted everything is. obviously, president trump is a nationalist. we know that. and he is not a globalist. and -- but it's not like globalists have produced a lot of trade for us, but it has -- because frankly, secretary raimondo, who is driving a lot of commerce, has been incredibly pro development here. that's in part because of taiwan and risk about taiwan building things here. i don't think that ceases. i'm looking for things that -- where there's a clear delineation, and you know powell gets fired. so, if you think powell's a hack and not doing a good job -- i'm finding that hard to believe. i'm watching this pce. i'm saying the soft landing is going. i don't want a new pilot in there. i'm pro soft landing. >> you would be worried about losing powell? >> okay, i'm going to -- i'm not a political guy, but i think jay powell is amazing. i think he's really good. i'm just putting that out there. i think he's a great -- i don't

know his politics either. i think he's a really outstanding fed chief. and has done a remarkable job, and i think it would be horrible if he were removed. >> we're going to dive further into pce in a bit. jim does mention nike and it is down big in the premarket, issuing a sales warning for the current year. company says q4 results were hit by weaker demand for footwear. dtc fell eight. this is john donahoe on the call last night. >> for the quarter, we saw strong gains within performance products. however, this is more than offset by declines in lifestyle. these declines had a pronounced impact on our digital results. these factors, when combined with increased macro uncertainty and worsening foreign exchange have caused us to reduce our guidance for 2025. we continue to make real progress on our comeback.

>> just listen to the big winner from last night. this is all i would be talking about. i've gone through the last four quarters, the conference call this morning, they didn't see this coming. wow. this is very, very bad quarter, and it says -- it calls management into question. there isn't a single piece that doesn't say that maybe management is off base here. they were -- when you see, we expect first quarter revenue to be down approximately 10%, what happens is this is no longer a growth story. it's a story that obviously peaked. if we were here listening to on or deckers, which is hoka, we would say, wow, the sneaker business is on fire. this was a terrible quarter, and there were no saving graces. if you go back to the head fake quarter, there's a great head fake quarter, which was the september of 2023 quarter, where they were really talking about how, listen, we're totally back, and lifestyle is really

fabulous. china, really strong. that's, by the way, if you take a look at the chart, that's when it spiked up to 120. everything's reversed since then. not a single line isn't bad, and i know that during the -- it would be a really critical year. during the mark barker days, i used to call these well orchestrated -- i wrote a book and said, if you want to know how to have a conference call, go over what mark parker does. he talks about new, fresh, teamwork, and then you have the cfo talk about what's going to happen. these were the most well orchestrated calls ever, and people who want to do a conference call, they should listen to the nike call, and, by the way, to the starbucks call, and now, nike and starbucks, strangely, are the two worst calls. >> it wasn't all bad. jordan inveup six. inventory down 11. >> i thought what you liked about digital doing well,

lifestyle making a big turn, paris olympics mentioned repeatedly in previous calls. i'm doing textual analysis versus previous calls. you can see that if you look at what the benchmark that they set was, they missed their own benchmark. can i find good things to say? absolutely. but can i -- i'm really judging how wrong management was about the future and the revenue down 10% was just a gaffe, and i think that a lot of people were upset, carl, because the ceo acts as if it was a good quarter, and you have to throw your -- that's something, by the way, that i saw with laxman narasimhan from starbucks. the great ceos in this country -- >> i only chuckle because if donahoe gets the treatment you gave laxman, he's in trouble. >> what you have to say is -- here's how you're supposed to do it. and i have been involved, and i have had to do it, and i don't like it. you have to start saying, i did not do a good job. my team is trying very hard.

i like my team. i will not let my team down again. i will not let -- but i did this quarter, and here's the three ways that i screwed up and what i intend to prove, but believe me, i don't have it yet. then, you know what happens? here's the question. you're very critical of yourself. tell me some of the things you're working on, and then, again, my team is great, i didn't lead. i have this, this, this. wow. sounds like you have a plan. no, i do not have a plan yet. if i had a plan, i would come forward. what i'm still doing is assessing where i got it wrong. humility goes a long way in the first quarter. you come back in the second quarter and you're humble, i don't care. you didn't make the playoffs. it's a little nfl-like. i learned this from people like andy reid. i'm talking about people who are great leaders in the concept of contests. john donahoe is in a contest, okay? he's in a contest versus hoka, versus on.

he's in a contest versus adidas. andy reid is in a kcontest verss the highest, most difficult world that we have, which is the nfl, and the first thing he says, i did not do a good job. i said, why are you so hard on yourself? he said, what am i supposed to do, we lost. >> we did get personal income spending numbers today. if you string together nike, levi, walgreens, general mills, are you starting to get concerned? >> that i think -- that general mills raised price too much. levi's was an execution issue. >> they can't all be execution, can they? >> no, general mills was -- no, i think they're all of a piece, which is that if you raise price too much, the american -- the new frugal consumer says, no. walmart, by the way, we sell walmart down. i did a double check, a gpt. exact same thing that rainey said in the previous quarter. costco remains big. tj remains big. walmart remains big.

burlington remains big. if you're offering a bargain to consumers, we love you. if you're not, if you're brinker, we love you with 11 bucks. if you're mcdonald's, small fries? really? >> you think that bifurcation in footwear and consumer and discretionary is about price elasticity breaking? >> carnival had a great quarter, why? because those are great vacations. vail had a bad quarter. the american consumer is rebelling against price. that is exactly, by the way, what powell wanted would happen, and now they're rebelling against price. >> as daly said, it took a little longer than we thought, but it is happening. >> they have had it, and if you don't cut price, or costco's going to make you cut price or come in with kirkland signature, and then you're finished. when we come back, we'll talk about the fed's preferred inflation gauge as we get ready for the final trading session of the half, the quarter, and the

month. take a look at the premarket. we got the ten-year down to 4.26% or so. could it break 4.2%? we'll find out later today. stay with us. at pgim, finding opportunity in fixed income today, helps secure tomorrow. our time-tested fixed income suite, backed by over 145 years of risk experience, helps investors meet their goals. pgim investments. shaping tomorrow today. something amazing is happening here. students are inspired and engaged. that's because school districts consulted with cdw to design modern classroom solutions with preconfigured hp devices making education immersive, accessible and secure. now, when researchers study elephants, kids learn from 9000 miles away. make amazing happen. hp and cdw.

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from professional certifications, to job training, to help navigating programs and services, we give veterans access to support from anywhere in the world. the data closely watched by the fed did match expectations today, showed inflation slowing to the lowest rate in three years. month on month, core was up 0.1. overall, pce unchanged. we got some are of in super core, up 0.1. that's the lightest since august of '23. >> we're really down to rents. >> rent? even morgan stanley yesterday said insurance, likely breaking here. >> insurance is breaking. we already got the previous cpi. i'm surprised they missed that. in the previous cpi, if you take for auto, people aren't

reporting their accidents. you get some people who say, wow, i want to get in this game, i take their money, and i don't have to worry about accidents, i can come in under everybody else. i think that's a growth story. it's very different from the others. again, i come back and say, soft landing. what you want to take off the table is this question that we have -- remember, all these people speak, and they shouldn't because it makes powell's job harder, but you got to start -- is raising still on the table? these are not numbers for raise. you could argue, you got to really slay it. it's kind of like fatal attraction. we can't just slay it and then have to boom, boom, boom. but i do think that it's going the right way. and what are we supposed to do, saying it's going the right way? it's going the wrong way. >> fitch hears fitch this morning, which normally track a little hawkish. "if the trend this month continues for another two months, fed may finally have the confidence for a cut in

september." >> i like that. it has to be three months. at one point, i think powell was going for a little bit lower than that. they started the clock again after the last -- the bad cpi. three months, and i think that jay will say yes, but by that point, we'll be at 4.4% on the unemployment. at that point, we'll be looking at nothing going on year over year. and they need to change the way they tabulate, because they need to recognize that america shops at walmart and costco, and walmart's everyday low price and rollback prices for thousands of goods, and costco doesn't have as many skus. by the way, amazon has rolled back. if you want to know what's going on, take a look at the prices at walgreens, because they needed inflation. that was, by the way -- i like tempe tim wentworth very much. >> i know you do. hard quarter to watch. lot of things hard to watch. >> all the things i've been saying tough things on, i think are terrific people. it doesn't matter. it's not about friends. it's about money.

when we come back, we'll get cramer's "mad dash." got some downgrades of not just nike but google today. >> that was fatuous. geez. >> some initiations of names like cat, ttlile more on micron, and sanjay's chat with jim last night. think about it. boring is the unsung catalyst for bold. what straps bold to a rocket and hurtles it into space? boring does. boring makes vacations happen, early retirements possible, and startups start up. because it's smart, dependable, and steady. all words you want from your bank. for nearly 160 years, pnc bank has been brilliantly boring so you can be happily fulfilled... which is pretty un-boring if you think about it.

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as we said, year is about half over. take a look at some s&p gainers for the year to date. there's smci at the top, followed by nvidia. constellation energy, jim, a lot of the components of playbooks you've been talking about for months. >> this is really what -- it's about the datacenter and power and constellation is the cleanest power, because that's what they created. what a great story that is. >> meantime, opening bell coming up in five minutes, and don't forget, you can catch us any time, anywhere. just listen atond follow the "squawk on the street: opening bell" podcast. it's time to get away and cash in at cache creek casino resort. to rock and to roll. to go all out or go all in

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>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. time for cramer's "mad dash" as we count down to the bell. >> yesterday, we had our conference call. i want people to listen to it. jeff marks and i went over, for the cnbc investor club, and we recommended a stock that was pushed pretty hard today, which is a company called nextracker. it's an industrial solar play. a lot of the ones that have fallen apart are for people who were putting solar on roofs. that tends to be about credit

for individuals. that's why that -- those stocks have all broken. nextracker, which sells at 16 times earnings, has got a very good book of business is about making it so that you get more power, literally more kilowatts out of a typical solar fields by making the solar fields adjust and catch the sun wherever, which is why they even have contracts in scandinavia. this is about, once again, how do you make it so your emissions are lower if you're a hyperscaler? you want to use solar. solar is going to be 25% of the grid by 2030. wind's actually dropping back a little. so, this is a play on the decision by the companies, not by the presidents, so be able to have a really lower footprint. very good. >> you were telling me how much work went into this pick.

>> remember, we're have been responsive to our club members, and one of the things that we try to do is make it so that if people say, tell us what kind of name you want, what kind of investment, over and over again, we hear, we'd like to hear something a little more -- i feel really good about the idea that whoever's president, solar power is going to be the predominant source of growth in our grid. >> let's get the opening bell here. at the big board, oil and gas production company land bridge celebrating an ipo. we're going to talk to the chairman and money movers today. at the nasdaq, alumis celebrating an ipo. piece on the tape today, best start for u.s. ipos in three years. >> well, i mean, that's quite good news. there was a negative piece today about tmo. it's a great company. mark is a dynamite ceo.

it talked about how there's not enough money coming in. i think that that's going to be, as you -- in the nasdaq. that's where the -- that's where the deal is going to come, because what will happen is, if you get a new president, and people might think that we're going to get a new one, one of the things that the ftc has been really against is these kinds of mergers that involve biotech, but the way that these big companies get their pipeline is to buy companies that are smaller. so, that's what i'm looking for. another great -- danaher, thermo fisher. >> reminds me of this 161-page initiation of industrials and machinery over at ray jay where they efficient outperform deere, parker, uri. >> i don't know if you remember the battle in "war and peace," like page 600. >> wait until you get to the

end. it's great. >> exactly. b bronski is a tragic figure in "anna karenina" just to put that out there. caterpillar is good. caterpillar has been stalled, and one of the reasons why it stalled is you have a real pro running the company. j jim. and he's never going to tell you it's going to be unbelievably good. he's straightforward. it depends on, yes indeed, how much datacenter you have. >> they say backlogs are compressing. the margin peak's probably in the rear view mirror. >> i think so, except if you believe caterpillar, steel is their biggest cost, and steel costs have come down rather dramatically, which is why nucor has been such a bad stock. it's a shame because nucor is remarkable, one of the great manufacturers in our company. my favorite in this group, and it's not mentioned is eton. the second one is dover. those are directly levered to

this secular growth of the data sector. i was listening to peter thiel this morning, and he was talking about nvidia and how everyone's going to catch up to nvidia. nvidia trades down, and it's a battleground stock, and i recognize that, but it always seems like jensen is standing still, jensen huang, and jensen huang is not playing chess and we're all playing checkers. i have no idea what game he's playing, but it is so futuristic, we haven't invented it yet, except for he's invented it. i don't like the people who say, everyone's going to play catch-up. when you're off the desk with the companies that are involved, they're just grateful to get blackwell chips, except for apple, by the way, which has got all these companies that are getting blackwell chips doing their bidding. apple continues to come out to be a huge winner. the people who didn't see apple coming, they didn't understand that there's a billion people that all of these guys want to tap into. may i also say that when you go into these chat services, nav,

generative a.i., they're so much better than they were three months ago. >> opi takes apple to $250. that's three firms in the 250 to $260 range. we did get vision pro launching in china. higher real prices than here. >> that surprised me over in asia and japan. it surprised me, because it's not selling all that well. i'm a believer in the product, but i'm not very lonely. justice department is after apple, why? because it's apple. one of the things that i think bothered business very much is that they work backwards at justice and ftc. who's too big? as tr, teddy roosevelt, did when he was looking at standard oil, but standard oil had 100% of the market. these guys do think they're trust processors, like tr, which, by the way, everyone made a fortune when they broke up, but i think the market is not going to just roar here, because i think there's also a group of

people just saying, i got to take money off the table. this is too crazy. >> to that point, goldman's tony today, really interesting note. he's been very constructive. "my instinct is it would be a good time to tap the brakes here. probability of a drawdown is rising." >> i read that piece, and i said, if you want to know how i have to start feeling for the club, that piece was very cogent, very good. i think gthat the uncertainty, gave you a pull forward of trump, but there's a lot of uncertainty here so if you're making a decision about who's going to be the candidate, that's, again, i'm referencing a piece in jpmorgan. >> to your point, jim, some of these opening gainers, livenation, capital one, are these expectations that trump is the next president? >> yeah, well, livenation, absolutely. 100%. capital one, again, because of the acquisition. 100%. >> yeah. >> i mean, these are not -- by the way, richard fairbank is one

of the great american bankers. he doesn't come on tv. i've been schooled by him. he has helped me immeasurably about how credit cards really work in this country, and i know a lot of people might say -- a firm might say he's predatory. i just say he's, you know, he's one version of how to do a credit card company. and he is a huge winner in a world of a pull-through trump, who i don't think would even focus on this issue. >> right. interesting time for banks. couple stories on the tape today. one's about junior bankers working hundred-hour workweeks and how that pressure is reasserting itself. the other is this "journal" piece on goldman rolling out their first a.i. -- >> i thought that was terrific. >> -- product for developers in-house to allow them to scan rings of information in seconds. >> i think if you're working a hundred hours, what you're trying to do is keep your job. one of the things that's happened, if you look at the unemployment rate for people in their 20s, that's where the unemployment rate is skyrocketing, because those are the people -- like, do we need them? that's the answer.

i would ask marc benioff tonight about that, the ceo of salesforce. do we need people? what would happen is those are the people on the front lines. we hear it over and over again, that banking is where you're going to get the most change. someone's working a hundred hours, i think they're trying to preserve their job. my advice to them -- i can do this. oh, shoot, i can't. what you do when you're at goldman is you put your jacket on your chair when you leave at 8:00 at night and say, well, i was there all night. by the way, eddie lampert did that. took his coat off. meanwhile, i'm working really hard, but he's -- wow, he's working harder. >> leave your jacket. where's eddie? he's around here somewhere. >> take your jacket off. this is to the hundred -- the guy who's working 60 hours next to the hundred-hour guy, take your jacket off and no one's going to accuse you of not working a hundred hours. you can fool anybody with that stuff. >> jim, you were right on the tape yesterday on chewy.

you're told your members to sell half now. >> that stuff is -- look, i -- the shareholders, by the way, on ryan cohen at bed bath and beyond was very curious, because isn't that the kind of suit that should have been brought by the government? we also saw, by the way, this is some sort of really interesting moment we should be thinking about. under armour paid a huge amount of money, but it wasn't the s.e.c. again, it was private strike suits. very important. and chewy, i don't know. when ryan cohen -- when katy and ryan -- this is an element that is not memesters, apes, ice cream cones, reddit must be watched every minute. i get my bulletins, a lot of it's -- a lot of it is silly, but you need to know what people on reddit are thinking, and you need to know what ryan cohen's

thinking and what roaring kitty is thinking. keith gill. they're factors. they're certainly more factors than half of this stuff that i come in with. >> we didn't get to discuss the scotus decision yesterday about s.e.c. in-house proceedings. the other is how many google searches reference reddit, and this rosenblatt downgrade at google has real questions about search. >> yeah. look, i mean, the stock c's had big run. people are unsure about what's going to happen with search versus gemini. i think search has gotten in better -- i'm tired of bashing alphabet, because every time i've said it's almost over, it's found a new way to make money. they're very smart. you're underrating ruth porat if you're saying something bad about alphabet. >> well, it's barton crockett, who i know you like. he talks about nascent signs

that bing has taken some share. we know what's happening to search at retail, walmart and amazon. may be a higher than expected capex cycle. >> it's possible. but google cloud is doing okay. youtube is the best way to reach people. and that makes it so that i find it -- i have scaled back alphabet for the travel trust. it's the only one of the megas that i just took a lot off, and i took a lot off earlier than i should have. you could argue this is where the stock is because i felt that search would be impacted. and then, i missed how great youtube was doing. remember, like with jensen, there are a lot of smart people at alphabet, and they know what we do, and they just keep pioneering. of the sister, you know, if you were like, five sisters or whatever, i'm so sick of the -- i won't say magnificent seven. >> seven brides for seven brothers. >> yeah. how good was the choreography of that? wasn't that great?

>> yes. speaking of names in large cap tech, jim, your reflections on your interview last night. >> sanjay mehrotra, the ceo, people don't understand, there's two components of semiconductors. you want to make as many as you can but not so much that you flood the zone. that's the typical hack view. and then that you should be able to produce them very quickly. the answer is, no, when you're making more complex chips, you have a yield problem. you have to go a why before you get it so most of your chips are okay. these chips are hard to make. people expected him to be able to make them like that, and you can't. when you look at the supply -- he's talking about multiple billions of dollars. what you want to do is you want to go back and look at micron since 1994 and realize there's no period where you only had seven months good. and then you add in the fact that there's no a secular growth

story in addition to the cyclical, and we talked about cyclical versus secular, cyclical meaning it depends on how the economy is doing. and then you add in pcs, which he thinks is going to be strong. we were buying best buy for the travel trust, and you come back and say, why are people saying it? it's a reason to buy, and i would be a defender of buyer of micron if i didn't own everything else around it. >> really quick, jim's comments about the supply side, but mehrotra did talk to you about the demand side. take a listen. >> we had said datacenter inventories will normalize by mid summer. they have normalized, and you are seeing a strong buying pattern for memory. >> that's why you said, if you're selling it here, talk to me. >> yeah, i mean, sometimes -- look, i'm not saying that i'm a great student of every single move or -- but i like to parse, because that's what you learn.

you parse. and this is a man who's not been saying that, and now he's giving the green light. he actually, by the way, he had his people pull me back. i was ahead of the game in january, saying, look, i think this is going to be multiple billions, and it's going to be the most important thing. just worry about high bandwidth memory, hbm, that he was talking about, and they were saying, jim, don't go offi the reservation here. don't be more bullish -- i think it was saying, jim, your bullishness is greatly appr appreciated, but we can only do so much. when i get that kind of call, they don't say, i'm not accurate. they just say, geez, you're so bullish. why don't you go over the call again? if you parse it, you realize that sanjay mehrotra is one of the most humble and least promotional ceos that i follow. he tells it straight. he didn't give you the exact bottom in october. he did say inventories are very lean. what i think you've got is a guy who's not a hype artist who's

saying things are going to be really -- multiple billions. when he's not a hype artist and he says that, that means buy. that just means buy. >> there's a lot of news in media. there's this nfl jury decision on sunday ticket. there's this investment that netflix continues to make in their studios in albuquerque. >> i said that someone should invest in new mexico, and of course the one company that is the most forward and doing the best uses new mexico. obviously, they're huge fans of the show. i do like these guys. some people -- this one is a total quandary, and i don't know what to make of it. there was a guy who's retiring, a classmate of mine at school, who i -- is a remarkable general counsel for the nfl, and i would have liked to see something from the nfl explaining what to say or do. they're usually pretty communicative. i don't have the lawyers. i don't have the -- sometimes it's better to say i don't have

the call. >> story's not over either. >> no. >> these penalties can change to the upside. >> yes. >> the real question is whether or not you're going to watch season three of the"the bear." >> i would never miss it. i hope they bring vern back. "the bear" -- i like shows that are not cop shows, that are not hospital shows, that are not death shows. i like shows that are tense and real life. having been in a kitchen of a restaurant i owned and being told to get the hell out of it, and i say, i own it, and the cook says, what does that mean? he's got a knife in his hand, get the hell out of his kitchen. i'm trying to tell him that i own the restaurant. that meant nothing. >> it's like a lion. only one lion can be in there. >> i'm scared to death. don't go in the kitchen if you own it. >> i need hands on 12. all that stuff really happens. >> corner. i was told, corner, and the guy was going to jump a hot bucket

of fries on me. which is, by the way, more fries than mcdonald's. >> jim, we're back above 5,500 on the back of pce. now, there's chicago pmi. let's get to rick santelli. hey, rick. >> yes, a big surprise here on the chicago pmi june read. we're expecting a number around 40. 47.4. now, that doesn't sound great. it's under 50, but it's still the best read since november, but here's why the market, on interest rates is moving a bit higher on this number and stocks a bit lower. last month was over a four-year low. may of -- last month's read at 35.4 comped all the way back to may of 2020 when it was 31.3. so, even though it's still in contraction mode, it did have a big jump, and do keep in mind that ten-year note right now is hovering at 4.26%. that's unchanged on the week. pay attention to that 4.25% level. it should be significant.

and pre-personal income and spending numbers, that ten-year was hovering around 4.30%. "squawk on the street" will return after a short break. see that? that's like the gap in my health insurance. gap in your health insurance? yeah, it didn't cover everything when i got hurt. good thing i had aflac. hmmm the cash i got from aflac helped pay for medical expenses, groceries, rent. it really helped close that gap. go, go, go! yay! go aflac! go duck! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover

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(♪♪) we showed you some of the year's top performers so far on the s&p. now laggards. awfully familiar names. walgreens, lululemon, intel. >> intel -- nice. >> although we are above 5500 as pce came in friendly. tesla above 200 for the first time in a few months. we'll get stop trading with jim in a minute.

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natural gas, it will go higher if president trump meets president biden because this is the company most levered to building more plants. the original, the starter. they could go -- it could be the right thing. secondly sempra not as levered but doing really important things. sempra being the more calm way, sre, with 3% yield. >> we're three points shy of a record intraday. is that a comment of what you think the trump white house would bring to stocks. >> yes? question answered. >> maybe a little definitive at times. >> is it that or a combination of what inflation appears to be giving us? >> inflation saying you're going to win on that because of the pmi didn't even hurt it, but i also thing that -- i thought there might be more of a sense of geez, things are kchaotic, instead, people are going back to remembering it was a good time for the stock market. the amazing thing it's been a good time for the stock market

because it's never accrued because biden is not a fan of the stock market. how do i know that? he told me many times on the train to washington. >> pretty vocal about that. >> always prided himself on not being involved. that's okay. >> goldman reminds us the first two weeks of july have been the best two weeks of the year back to 1928. >> summer rally. it's funny, the summer rally is real. sell in may is not. the sellers seem to just go on vacation at the beginning and a lot of new money comes in. nothing new there. and that's a very good sign. by the way, ta is a good sign for the mega caps. they're all in a -- apple is the leader this time. not nvidia. apple is a consumer led company, which remember the other ones are enterprise. >> yes. >> people are suspicious of the enterprise other than servicenow but not as suspicious or critical of the consumer side. >> well said. how about tonight? >> i've got salesforce which is one that's coming back that is -- >> speaking of enterprise.

>> very big enterprise. then -- yesterday was up big because alongco didn't get the full approval out of blackhawk for pet care for an important pet care drug and i think pets are back, witness chey, and zoetis is a big winner here. that trade is back. the pets are back. they kind of stalled and now pets are back. hallelujah because i think pets are great. i'm a fan of when people go and buy the curated pets. there are so many pets that will be killed if we don't go into the shelters. go to the shelter. i have a tennessee kill center dog and by the way, so we know, nvidia was -- >> he was a rescue. >> important note. we chopped a lot of wood this week. >> why not. that's what we do for a living. >> yes. >> give them what they want. >> see you tonight, "mad money," 6:00 p.m. eastern time. when we come back wharton's

jemyre siegel. we're within reach of an all-time high. stay with us.

good friday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla and mike santoli, live at post nine from the new york stock exchange. david has the morning off. take a look at stocks a little bit higher in today's session. technology leading the charge ret yet again. the s&p up 0.4% and it's adding to gains for this week. so far the week we're up about .75%. nasdaq up 1.5%. the fourth straight week of gains for the s&p and cyclical groups like industrials, energy and financials joining the party today. they're all higher. what's being held back? communication services, consumer discretionary and consumer staples. if you look at where the gains are, nvidia, you've got broadcom

again, tesla, qualcomm. the chip stocks leading the way gen. >> we are on close watch for the supreme court decisions. the court is down to its final cases of the term including a blockbuster regarding whether former president trump is immune from criminal prosecution on charges stemming from his efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss. the latest as it happens this hour. some of the reporters who watch scotus say maybe three to five decisions in the next few minutes. >> they've got a few more sessions left after this but that's the about biggy. meantime we're 30 minutes into the trading session. three big movers we're watching starting with nike, shares plunging after a guidance cut and also dragging down other retail names this morning. we've got exclusive color on the quarter in just a moment. super micro is on the move. it's the pest performing stock on the s&p this year after a report from baron's it could soon replace walgreens in the nasdaq 100. watching apple, oppenheimer

raises the price target on the name to 250 a share as analysts there say apple could become, quote, a dominating force in the consumer ai experience. shares are on pace for their best quarter since q12023. >> meantime getting revised umich. back to rick santelli on a busy day for data. >> carl, indeed, there's significant changes here from the mid month reads for our final june read on university of michigan sentiment and the inflation reads within this report. 68.2 in 65.6. a nice pop. but that is only the best number since last month when it was a bit. as we look at 65.9, replacing 62.5 on current conditions. that's a nice pop as well. but still, may is comping higher than that level. now if you look at expectations, a bit of a different story here. also a nice pop. from 67.6 up to 69.6. that's the best read since april

of last year. now the inflation numbers. the one-year inflation outlook, well on the mid month read it was 3.3. it moves all the way down to 3.0. now, that is good news, but do remember, in march we were at 2.9. we started the year at 2.9. it is still a nice improvement from the mid-month read. finally the 5 to 10-year inflation outlook, mid-month read 3.1 that moves to 3.0 which equals april of 3.0. 2.8 in march, it was lower read. we started out the year at 2.9. very similar to some of the metrics in the pce. we have seen some levels that are a bit lower but there has been improvement, especially from a calendar sequential parameter. we do see that yields have come up off the lowest levels, but we're basically hoverering up in the 10 and two years considering the movement in the yield curve

at 4.67 but it closed last week at 4.73, down 6 basis points on the week. sara, back to you and have a good weekend. >> you too, rick. thank you. have a good weekend by the way as rick is speaking the s&p and nasdaq are hitting intraday record highs. so continuing their win streak. the lower yields can't hurt. the other data point we got today, the big one, pce. this is the fed's preferred inflation gauge, and it was fairly benign. the fed is -- every member of the fed said we need more evidence that inflation is coming down. they got some evidence today because the overall headline number month-to-month was flat, okay, that's good. 2.6%. was how much it rose in may. versus last year. the core which everybody looks at very carefully, strips out more volatile food and energy gained 0.1%. a lot of people are not rounding it.

looks better. april was revised higher not great. the yearly pace at 2.6%, shows some progress. we broke down here where the inflation is coming from. it's not coming from goods. that's subtracted, that's subtracted from the overall inflation number. it was services still that continued to be the culprit, but the services number is cooling off. is it a dramatic cooling back to 2%, no, but it's moving in the right direction and it's behaving up like we were getting in the early part of the year, mike, and that feels like the market can rally off of that. >> yes. >> both bonds and stocks because it gives the fed further evidence, and it lets those economists and fed watchers who say september is on the table for a cut, still have ammunition to make that case i think. >> preserves the fed's flexibility. definitely as you says suggests that the early year surge in inflation readings was seasonal. market wasn't particularly

stressed about this number coming in, so we sort of had a good fix on it. i think that's part of the story, though, which should mitigate bond market vol tilt. the inflation numbers coming in close to forecast. people have a handle on the trend. big picture that's a solid thing. the overall market has been staying near these record levels and now above record levels along the way, not because the macro is getting better, but because it was good enough to allow, you know, the biggest cap secular growth stocks to take the lead for a little while. today it's a broader rally. so you have that kind of lower yield soft landing tone underneath banks doing okay, things like that. net positive. we'll see how much we've already in general sort of priced in strong first half, 15%, on the s&p, for, you know, through june. >> we monitor the fed speak as well. we basically heard from three voters starting with michelle bowman who has been more hawkish, early to spot inflation saying we need a butnch of hike

and not ready to cut rates until it's clear that inflation is ebbing. not surprising to get a more hawkish tone from her. more hawkish from barkin the richmond fed president who said it's too soon to tell but one way to find out. perceived deliberately while keeping close eye on the real economy. made comments doesn't look like the economy is hurting that much as a result of the rate hikes i'm not sure the evidence points to, and that's kind of what mary daly the san francisco fed president said this morning, on "squawk box" from the aspen ideas festival when asked about where the policy talk is going. listen to this. >> we're getting evidence that it's tightening up. it's really challenging to look anywhere and not see monetary policy working. we have growth slowing, spending slowing, the labor market is slowing, inflation coming down. that's how policy works. now, it's taking longer than we'd all like, of course, but that doesn't mean it's not working. >> so you do see the evidence in

that. you saw it in the personal spending numbers today, which came down a little and should feed into second quarter growth numbers which have been revised down. again we're still in the 2% range of growth, but it's not in the 3% range which is where we initially thought it would be. there's plenty of evidence that tight policy is starting to impact the economy. just wanted to share some results from our delivering alpha survey that cnbc put out. we asked investors and strategists on the trust factor in the fed, it's very high right now. we asked, do you trust the fed to do the best thing for the american economy? 77% say yes. 23% no. which is just interesting given we're digesting the results of the debate and who would do better on the economy and how much trust do we have in either candidate. the fed we trust. >> rates have been static almost a year, they will have been static a year at the cycle highs, and we've had mostly above trend growth or near trend

growth since then, and consistent disinflation point to point. it's hard to say wow, they've really screwed up in the last year, right. i think professional investors understand the complications of the prior period before that and, you know --? the . >> there is potential to screw up. they don't want to wreck the economy. they want make sure inflation is confidently coming down to it%. as you can see in the fed speak there's nuances in how they feel about whether there's enough evidence yet to start cutting rates, september, december. we're going to hear from fed chair powell on tuesday, on a panel with me the head of the ecb and bank of brazil it will be interesting to see how he reads recent inflation reports like today's pce and how much evidence he feels and how many months of good data he feels that data needs to behave for him to get to cutting mode. it's all about the nuances in the answers right now as the market tries to gain out 1 or 2. >> [ inaudible ] one or more

considering you're tracking for where the fed thought inflation would be at the end of the year. they never thought they would have to wait until at target and talking about optional insurance cuts, not rescuing the economy. we'll see how he treats it? last night's debate front and center for investors. 67% of respondents to cnbc's latest delivering alpha poll saying the former president is better for the stock market. to eamon javers. i don't know if you're on scotus watch as well. >> simultaneously here, carl. at 10:00 a.m. in the morning. this was not a debate about policy or ideas last night. it was a debate about competence and capacity, and joe biden's meandering and sometimes incoherent performance immediately raised questions among democrats this morning across the country as to whether he should be the party's nominee. but there were some moments of conversation about the economy in the debate, particularly early on. here are a couple of those moments. >> he caused this inflation.

i gave him a country with no -- essentially no inflation. it was perfect. it was so good. all he had to do was leave it alone. he destroyed it with his green new scam and all this money that's being thrown out the window. >> he decimated the economy. absolutely decimated the economy. that's why there was no inflation at the time. there were no jobs. >> carl, among the many questions swirling this morning is whether there will be another debate between these two men. there is another one scheduled in september, but the trump campaign may feel so confident about their candidate's performance last night that it's not worth engaging for them in a second debate at all. we'll see what happens. but a lot of questions swirling this morning about joe biden's viability after we saw that moment where he just kind of froze up and was unable to come up with an answer. smaller moments happened throughout the debate like that. real questions now this morning, carl. >> do we expect to have an impact on fund raising dollars? do we expect it to have an

impact on the money that's been flowing from the democrats to biden? >> we'll see. one way the democratic power brokers can make their opinions know is toggling up or down their giving. we'll see over the next 24 hours what the fundraising is like for the biden campaign. the question is really, though, one for joe biden himself, right. does the president feel that he has the stuff after last night to take on donald trump? that's a question for him to decide. short of him voluntarily going into retirement, there's just very few scenarios you can see that would realistically play out here where democrats would challenge joe biden and try to force him out of this race. that doesn't seem possible at this point, but, you know, it's early. this is unchartered territory. >> it's going to make investing decisions even more complicated in the back half of this year. thank you. eamon javers. the last trading day of the quarter in the half. s&p up 15% for the year. nasdaq up almost 20. fueled by tech as you know which

is up almost 30% in the first half. and the best performing sector. can the rally roll on in 2-h. joining us jeremy siegel, professor at university of pennsylvania's wharton school, chief economist at wisdom tree. great to have you. pretty nice gains here mid year. we are seeing people say why not tap the brakes. what do you think? >> well, i think the momentum is still there. by the way, we're talking about, you know, what happened last night during that hour and a half, s&p futures were trading and they were up 10 points. so the question of, at least at this point, did the stock market like trump better than biden, i think that vote at least was taken then. now, of course, when policies finally get enacted, things can change very, very differently. and secondly, you know, if trump does -- is -- decided to step

down and a free new possible nominee for the democratic party, remember, early hopefuls were interesting, almost anybody but trump on the republican side easily beat biden and almost anyone but biden on the democratic side easily beat trump. so it was sort of an interesting juxtaposition between these two men. so, yeah, politics is important. on the economy, i would say the recent data has been on the weakish side. not real weak. not a recession scare, but, you know, we were coming in 3%. a lot of people the second quarter, 3.5. i would say we're barely two at this point with the data coming in. and given the good pce data and what i think is going to be very

good data, core inflation in the second half, i really think the fed is -- should tee up the cut on the july 31st meeting, confirm it at jackson hole, in august, and do it in september. >> do you think the market is already priced that day? >> well, i think the fact that the yields are down and the stock market up, and those probabilities are priced in. actually, my feeling is, i would say, what, 1, maybe 1.5 cuts is priced in, if you look at the january fed funds. i think there will be more. because i think there might be a little bit more softness in the economy and better inflation numbers, both of those feeding lower rates. now slower economy isn't the one that you want to be good for the stock market, but lowering

inflation is certainly and rate cuts because of that, and lower rental rates, you know, we keep an index of current rentals and current home prices and our cpi core and pce core is now below the 2% target on a year over year basis. as many economists have mentioned, in fact, even powell and janet yellen, who we're waiting for those lower rental rates to feed in, looks like the second half of this year they will to give us that good inflation. >> professor siegel, i guess to broaden it out a little bit we're up 50% in the s&p from the 2022 market low after that bear market that we did have there. you got about 18% annualized gains for the last four years or so. it seems as if the market has built in a lot, although if you

count it from the 2022 high we're not really over our skis. i wonder where you think we are in the life cycle of this bull market? >> it's hard to say. that's almost saying you know when it's going to end. listen, the p/e going forward, you know, they're 21, but with strong momentum on earnings and as has been said, there's a bifurcated market. you take out tech and you're more at 17. you go to the smaller and mid-sized more like 13 and 14. tech as i've been saying has been delivering the bacon for all those investors and that momentum is still there. i've been saying that for three are four months i don't see that breaking. you know, ex-tech, there's absolutely no over valuation and techs is not over valued if it

keeps off pulling off the earnings gains that it has been able to do so far. we are also, thank god, nowhere near 2000. the question is, are we 1997 or 1998? no one really knows. it started like that. could be there a craze? there always could be in markets but certainly we are not there yet. >> even a lot of the bulls we talked to lately say we're not seeing the mania that we all remembered from those days. professor, we'll see what certainly earnings season gives us. have a great weekend. >> thank you very much. >> as we head to the break, here's our road map. the street take on nike as shares plunge down 18.5%. >> speaking of tech, it is up almost 30rs in the first half. don't miss a closer look at what investors need to watch as we head into the second half of the year. >> apple's vision pro hitting stores in china. live to beijing for a look at

that launch where prices are higher than they are here in the u.s. when "squawk on the street" continues. >> university of maryland global campus is a school for real life, one that values the successes you've already achieved. earn up to 90 undergraduate credits for relevant experience and get the support you need from your first day to graduation day and beyond. what will your next success be?

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look at shares of nike, they are getting crushed down almost 19% right now as the stock has a slew of downgrades and price target cuts from wall street this morning. the company reported it missed on revenue estimates, cut its full-year guidance saying it now expects sales to drop 10% in the

current quarter and for 2025, it's going into that fiscal year, it expects sales to decline in the low single digits. i did speak to senior executives at the company and what is not going right right now. the lifestyle business declined. this is air force one, air jordan ones and dunks. the performance business on the other side which is more basketball and running, that grew double digits but wasn't enough to upset the declines in the lifestyle business. they saw digital weakness, somewhat of a surprise, in april and may, but the way they explain it is, it's a higher percentage of lifestyle shoes like air force one on the website which is why they saw that fall offp and then traffic in china really started to decline in the beginning of april, and they chalk that up to the macro concerns there and say it's a promotional environment and so are rethinking the trajectory on china. look, this is all part of a story of a turnaround that john don know hu is trying to

engineer one year in and made all sorts of executive changes. he did, when he joined us in the interview a few weeks ago from paris, said they're focused on innovation. they've been in an innovation lull. the company says they feel pretty confident the second half of the year growth is going to pick up why they see the order books from wholesalers and say it's very optimistic and point to the performance business working where they say they started to really push through the new innovation, but clearly, the street doesn't feel confident that nike is engineering that kind of turnaround that it needs and has the right strategy in place. our next guest says nike is a mess, deflated and that company doesn't hold a candle to the nike brand seven years ago. sam poser joins us now. i have to give you credit. critical. turned on this company a few months ago. despite a lot of the analysts saying now is a good time to buy, you said it's going to be bumpy from here. i assume you feel vindicated

given what we heard last night? >> i just hope i helped some people make money or not lose money. look, the big problem here is, you brought it up, they've lost a lot of people and a couple things that were said on the call, one, that they're reinvesting the $2 billion savings into talent, number two, that they've said we've done this before in 2018, and lastly, at the end of the call, the ceo said, you know, one of the best things about nike is the people and culture. they laid off a lot of people and i don't know how well that culture still exists. and, you know, that is the foundation of the business. seven years ago when they came out of this before, or six years ago, that they had the foundation of that culture. it's not there. it's got to be rebuilt. i think it's just -- i think they could make the revenue number on selling and wholesale, but i think there's risk in the

gross margins even in the revised down guidance. >> why? because i mean they were able to grow margins and they had a big profit beat and the whole mantra has been profitable growth. isn't it the revenue growth that street is more worried about right now? >> maybe, but the thing is, they're going to switch from selling through at direct to consumer to selling in it also, so you have a mix issue there. and then you're counting on this new product that's going to sell through at regular price. while there are a few things that are doing, you know, well right now, nike is a huge company, this air max dn isn't selling through well, the -- they've pulled back on the three shoes that you mentioned before, but they're telling you they're selling more of those in to wholesale. sell in and sell through do not necessarily match. and that's the problem here. it is, you know, i think the

back half guidance is hopeful and nike has leverage to say you have to take this so their wholesale book is a lot of we need you it take this. >> i guess where you could be wrong, sam, if this is a kitchen sink quarter and that's what some of the analysts are trying to ponder today, whether it's just a reset or this is kitchen sink setting themselves up to beat and they see that -- i mean what i've heard they see consumer reaction to the new shoes, the peg, for instance, in running while not taking back share yet they feel confident that that's coming. because they see the reaction from wholesale and from consumers to some of their new products, and that should sort of ignite the turnaround. that's the bull case. >> i mean, it should. the question is, will it? and the thing is, if -- if you compare this company to adidas, adidas, you know, had a lot of their core classic products sort of nascent for a while.

they're bringing that back while they develop new product. here, you've got your best product you have to pull back on and you have your fingers crossed on the new product. the air max dn is not working. the rates on the jordan 4 that launcheded a couple weeks ago are disappointing to say the least. a lot of that stuff will have to get marked down. they felt very confident at the end of the third quarter that the back half of this year would be better. now they feel less confident. i don't think all that bad news is out of this thing yet. >> well, we certainly appreciate you joining us. stock down 189%. at some point does it get interesting. it sold off double digits into the print, now down another almost 20%. >> i lowered my price target to $67. what i would say is they have to prove that they can -- that, you know, they know what's going on, that they have the people and the culture to do it. i think that at the end of the day is the real question.

you can look back, but it's totally different crew there now and i would argue they aren't -- it isn't as established a crew as they've had in the past. if things improve, i mean, that's the underlying problem of the whole thing. >> sam --. >> that's what everybody missed going into the quarter. >> you've been warning about that for a while. thank you very much. one other comment i heard from the top executives, carl, we talk about hoka take share. the wholesalers, according to nike, they want nike to win because that's the only way for them to grow the pie and business. they're the only ones that have the sale. if hoka wins, that's great, they take share from other companies but the point from nike execs they have to succeed and that's why they're getting good reception from the wholesale. >> we are getting a very big decision from the supreme court overturning chevron and nrdc. we'll turn to eamon javers. >> this is a sweeping decision by the supreme court to overturn what's called the chevron

precedent here. the reason it's significant is because it has enormous implications for the administrative state in the united states of america and all federal agencies and their ability to interpret the law what chevron precedent was, 1984 case from the supreme court which held that in absence of other information, courts should give deference to administrative agencies interpretation of the law. that gave a huge area of wiggle room for federal agencies to interpret what congress meant when it passed given laws if there was any gray area in the laws. the what the supreme court is saying this morning in a 6-3 decision is the courts may not defer to an agency interpretation of the law simply because a statute is ambiguous. chevron, they say, is overruled. that is a 6-3 decision. one interesting point here goes back to the chevron case originally in 1984, the supreme court writes, chevron decided in 1948 by a bear quorum of six

justices triggered a marked departure from the traditional approach of coming each statute to determine its meaning. skepticism here of whether that case was originally decided correctly. the supreme court saying it was not. chevron is overturned and there's going to be enormous questions for administrative agencies across the federal government as to how they move forward with interpreting rules when there is a gray area in the law. a lot of uncertainty for federal agencies. back over to you. >> and eamon, is the idea that they would have to continually check back with congress or just up to congress to chkind of mic legislate these elements. >> we're going through this decision here this morning and we're going to see if the supreme court is giving guidance here. but i mean one option would be that congress has to go in a detailed way and detail all the stuff that regulatory agencies have been doing between 1984 and until today. another option would be that, you know, the federal agencies

would get some deference unless there was a lawsuit challenging that. we'll have to see what supreme court said. a lot of fallout to come. chevron being overturned is a development we should pay attention to this morning. >> for sure. thank you. >> it's been a blowout first half for mega cap tech, of course, but it's a different story for some of tech's smaller names. let's get to kate roomeny with that breakdown. >> good morning. tech investors are describing this year as really a split between what they're calling the ai haves and the have nots. the haves, of course, mega cap tech. investors were willing to give a hall pass for these companies to spend big and to compete in ai. you've got alphabet, amazon, meta, microsoft, planning to shell out around $200 billion this year on xap equities, like data cents according to bernstein, up roughly 45% from a year ago. it does help the companies were still performing, nvidia, microsoft, amazon, alphabet, and meta saw earnings rose about 5%

for the typical s&p stock and much of that spending going straight to nvidia topping a $3 trillion market cap this year. amazon just this week topping $2 trillion. but the mag seven group diverged. tesla you got down about 20% and then the have nots. these are the software names growth is slowing. a budget dynamic. enterprise customers. they have their own ai strategy and then the software names that don't offer any sort of clear ai edge are not just a priority right now. see it reflected in shares of names like salesforce, mongodb, data dog, ui path and snowflake as well as workday. they are having a rebound this week. then fin tech. this area struggling this year. an interest rate story, but it's pretty much flat. the risk in the second half is this weighting. big tech's weather in the stock market in any sort of chink in the ai armor. we'll see if smaller software names can stage a bit of a comeback. >> thank you, kate rooney. check out the biggest

gainers on the s&p this week. teslamakes the cut. a lot of cruise lines are up there as well. carnival after earnings up 17%. fedex 52 weeks highs for that stock after good earnings this week up 19%. we'll talk about the movers you may have missed when "squawk on the street" returns after a quick break. in any business, you ride the line between numbers and people. what's right for the business and what's best for everyone who depends on it. solving today's challenges while creating future opportunities. it takes balance. cla - cpas, consultants, and wealth advisors. we'll get you there. ♪♪ ♪♪ citi's industry leading global payments solutions help their clients move money around the world seamlessly in over 180 countries...

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm bertha coombs with your cnbc news update. former uvalde school please mischief pete arredondo was released from jail on bond following an indictment late yesterday over his role in the response to the 2022 school massacre. he faces 10 counts of felony child endangerment and abandonment, several local media outlets reported a former school officer was also indicted on similar charges. americans united for separation of church and state

and other groups signaling today plans to fight a policy announced late thursday by oklahoma's state superintendent mandating that all public schools teach the bible. officials say it's meant to bolster historical understanding, but critics are calling it unconstitutional. it comes a week after challenges to a new law in louisiana directing all public schools to display the ten commandments j south korea's military releasing today a video it says shows a north korean missile exploding in flight. the video in response to pyongyang's claim that it successfully completed the test of a missile designed to deploy multiple warheads. carl, back over to you. >> bertha, thank you very much. top democratic fund-raisers reportedly sounding the alarm after biden's debate performance last night. check in with ryan schwartz for

cnbc.com to talk about what's at stake. i can only imagine where your reporting has led you the last 12 hours. >> that's right. since 9:00 last night, to really just after that debate started, i've been getting calls from donors and fundraisers from the democratic party about the concerns they have with president joe biden's debate performance. here's what we're learning today. biden was supposed to be going to this hamptons event on saturday. that's expected to be hosted by barry rosenstein, hedge fund executive, that event still on, at least as of right now. there's also a fundraiser that's expected to take place tonight in new york city and that, too, i'm told is still scheduled for tonight. there's a little silver lining on that which gets me to the point of what we're hearing. some donors who are going to the hamptons event to see for themselves how biden is doing post this debate. that is notable. they're thinking about next steps. the other things i'm hearing going forward is that there is discussions now about going to congressional leadership to talk

about the debate performance and where things stand and how things are going to be handled at the top of the ticket for the democratic party as we head into the convention in august. >> we're starting to get people weighing in. jefferies on the hill, senator fetterman. what about the fundraising mechanics of someone like a governor newsom? do we know where that stands right now? >> any name that's been pushed out there like governor newsom, gretchen whitmer, we're hearing people like gina raimondo as names floated out there, people vo close to the business community. we know this. they will -- they do very well raising money. they've done well as governors raising money. so, you know, these are all people who are very plugged in, who have had -- who have never had a problem raising a boatload of cash. if they got to the point where they had to step in for biden down the road, which is pretty far fetched but if they did, they would be okay raising a lot

of money. >> who are the big donors, the ones that can convince him, if need be, the big names, that president biden would listen to? >> that's a great question. you know, the people that i'm hearing from that believe there are folks out there who can try to convince biden to make a move one way or another ron conway. i texted him today, i have not heard back from him. we're also hearing names like a reid hoffman. i don't expect reid hoffman to say anything should change for biden. these are the types of people that could in theory who are in the inner circle could try to speak to biden about where things should go post that debate. >> okay. brian, keep at it. we'll check back in with you. you're busy making the calls. brian schwartz from cnbc.com coming up next hour on "money movers" former ecb president with his take on the french snap elections that are coming up and where global rates are headed from here. more on the markets with morgan stanley's global chief economist

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right now i'm looking at scenarios if inflation stays stickier than we would like or comes down more slowly than expected, of course, we would have to hold higher for longer. that is our commitment. if on the other hand we get an inflation coming down like it did at the end of last year and the labor market is staying intact or falters, we can adjust policy to respond to that. >> that was san francisco fed president mary daly, a voting member of the fomc this year speaking with andrew ross sorkin, weighing in on the inflation scenarios. the latest read this morning showing inflation rising 2.6% from a year ago. that was in line and overall inflation remaining flat from last month. joining us morgan stanley global chief economist seth carpenter.

how do you think the fed will read this report today? >> everybody inside the fed is going to welcome this report. most of the underlying information for this when we got the cpi and ppi data. the conformation in the pce measure of inflation, which is the one that they set a target for i think. i don't think they will be ecstatic. i don't think they want to extrapolate one month's of data and put up a banner that says mission accomplished as if they're finished. what i think the data does is show things are heading down for inflation. we've been confident in that outcome and this will give a shot in the arm for policymakers. >> it hasn't been one month. april and may have looked better than january, february, march. how many months is it going to take before they get the confidence to cut? >> so our baseline right now is that they'll be cutting in september. we've been saying three cuts this year, which is a little bit more than where the market has been pricing it, based on our confidence that inflation data will just keep printing to the

downside like this. i think they're getting there. across the committee there's a range of views. you heard mary daly's views, she's more akin in the way of cutting if the data confirms it. it's going to be this march of the data that's going to consistently pick up i think more of those committee members for cuts as they keep coming in. >> you've been pretty resolute on components starting to break. a note on insurance yesterday, on how these decreasing losses make less incentive for a rate update. i wonder, can where you talk about how insurance might be breaking and whether shelter follows? >> absolutely. what you're hitting on now is one of the truly quirky idiosyncratic of what makes this cycle and bout of inflation different. there's bottoms up component by component frictional inflation coming from the post-covid world still here. for the auto insurance, we know that auto insurers took a hit on

costs when used car prices went up, there were supply chain problems to get car parts, when wages were soaring for workers, especially for mechanics. they're getting into better and better financial position and because of that, and here, this is just the great work between my u.s. economics team and our equity research team, now we know that insurers are doing better and so as a result, the need to continue to push premiums up, it's going away. we saw a big downward surprise in that component. we don't think that the beginning of a whole series of big downside surprises but definitely an easing when it comes to auto insurance component of the cpi. housing is another one. covid meant everyone wanted to work from home, wanted more room because kids were going to school from home and we saw this surge in rents. we know from the underlying data that market rents right now for new leases has stopped rising and the twha usually translates

into the official statistics, after a couple quarts you see it show up in statistics. the rent component in the cpi has come off its peak. we think there's a long way to go down for the rest of this year into next year. again that's going drive a huge chunk of the overall inflation picture for the fed. >> seth, as much as the easing price pressures have been welcome they're back on the fed sort of forecast path from the beginning of the year arguably. maybe this disinflation colonel looks a little bit less -- currently looks a little bit less immaculate in terms of the wear and tear on the economic growth side of the story. is your three cuts anticipated this year essentially from inflation getting better, or do people on the fed, do you think, need to see some more economic softening or are they alert today? >> yeah. our call is very heavily predicated just on the inflation coming down. i think if the fed gets the inflation back to target and the

economy stays growing at the same pace we've seen, they would be very happy with that outcome. you listen to chair powell the way he's been describing the increase in the labor supply that's been coming from this surge of immigration, he's called it a bigger, but not tighter economy, and i think we fully subscribe to that perspective. i believe there are members of the committee who want a little bit of slowing. our forecast is for slowing. we're looking at something like 2% growth this year coming down from 3% growth of last year. that's a step down, but it's still a step down to a solid pace. >> yields have turned higher. do you think that rising odds of a trump presidency, which has happened after the debate last night, is influencing the bond market or will influence the bond market? >> i mean, i think the market, all markets now are wrestling with all the different poss possiblous outcomes for the election. one of the things we've been

stressing for clients is the presidential election clearly matters. what goes on with the congress matters just as much especially if you're thinking about fiscal policy and what it could mean for rates in terms of either spending, growth, tax cuts and then ultimately the supply of debt. and i do think markets have to pay a lot of attention. >> seth carpenter, appreciate your take from morgan stanley as the s&p and nasdaq make new highs. we'll continue to be all over this rally when we come rit ck.h you know what's brilliant? boring.

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news out of scotus, this time on the application of an structure statute regarding january 6th. >> that's right. the supreme court deciding in this case involving the obstruction charges against january 6th defendants, a lot of whom were facing this charge. the question was, how broad or narrow will that charge be allowed to be by the supreme court? the court here holding in order to prove a violation, the

government must establish that the defendant impaired the availability or integrity for use in official proceeding of records fshlgts documents, objects or other things used in an official proceeding or attempted to do so. the supreme court narrowing prosecutors' ability to make obstruction cases. it's important in this case because donald trump also faces a similar charge. a couple of interesting points on this. the person involved in this case, fisher, is one of about 350 people who have been charged with obstruction in the january 6th cases. about 170 capitol insurrection defendants have been convicted of obstructing or conspireing to obstruct the january 6th joint session of congress. so, this will affect those cases, although prosecutors suggesting nobody will be completely exonerated as a result of this supreme court ruling. not clear now how this is going to play into the donald trump case going forward, but clearly a narrowing here of prosecutors' ability to make an obstruction

charge against january 6th defendants. >> meantime, i wonder if you can put in some perspective the decisions of the week, namely the chevron reversal, which we just talked about, couple that with what happened in the week regarding in-house proceedings at the s.e.c. and what's happening to federal agency power. >> yeah, this is a huge setback week if you're a big fan of federal regulations. if you're an opponent of federal regulations, you're cheering. i imagine there will be some champagne broken out at the chamber of commerce at the end of the day because this is the kind of supreme court they wanted to see in terms of the regulatory state being rolled back. the chevron decision we saw earlier this hour is a sweeping one. it impacts federal agencies' ability to interpret the law and their ability, then, to exert power in all kinds of proceedings that bit corporations are dealing with in. that will change the contours and texture of federal power for

generations. and i think the other one we can look at is purdue pharma, which was fascinating because in that case the family had come to a multibillion dollar decision. that decision now being thrown back to the deal-makers. the supreme court not operating on a partisan basis in purdue pharma. all the other cases in terms of a regulatory state, you're getting conservative rulings that conservatives have cheered for, looked for for years and this week they got them, carl. >> an historic turn for the court's right wing. we'll see how that continues, even though we didn't get some of the decisions we were expecting this week. there's still more to come in washington. meantime, mike santoli off the opening highs, but 5520, getting some attention today. >> hanging in there. it is, again, more stocks up than down. it's not just one of those days where it's just a handful working. sara, you mentioned longer term yields did firm up a little bit.

we got some steepening of the yield curve. inflation numbers absolutely welcome but you're still left with this idea of, you know, the fiscal picture down the road -- >> the fiscal picture. >> gold popping, et cetera. >> the fiscal picture is in picture now with the election sharply in focus and the imf in article 4 assessment, which they review economies for the u.s., pretty stern warning on fiscal debt and gdp reaching 140%. >> can't get that yield below 4.3. on mer aerhis. daughter: what are you doing? dad: i'm gonna clean the fence. daughter: it's a lot of fence. dad: you wanna help me? dad: aim at the wall, but get closer. daughter: (gasps) what the?! daughter: alright. dad: side to side. when you work with someone who knows a lot and cares even more... you can do this. ...you're unstoppable. (♪♪) wow... are you kidding me? you can do this. at truist, we believe the same is true for banking.

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for the love of progress. good friday morning. welcome to "money movers." i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla live from post 9 of the new york stock exchange. the ecb president jean-claude trichet on france's snap election. >> the ipo having the best half of the year since 2021. we'll talk to the owner of landbridge ahead of their debut. later, is the shoe on the other foot for nike? bank of america calling the stoc