point. nasdaq is down .2% or 36 points. up 18% so far for the year. there is a comprehensive look, the big three, the dow, the s&p, nasdaq, all negative. russell, a little bit higher and there you see the yield on the ten-year at 4.34. >> we have gone negative on the trading session, but it is still very strong, very positive start to the year. yeah. have a good weekend. >> second half coming up. have a good weekend. thank you for watching "power lunch." "closing bell" starts right now. kelly, thanks so much. welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner at the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour begins with a great first half for your money and the big question now, what comes next? we'll ask our experts over this final stretch. look at the score card, with 60 minutes to go in regulation, the fed's favorite inflation read was tame, no big lift though for stocks on the other side of that. the s&p and nasdaq did hit new highs earlier as technology once again led the way. but we are now red across the

board and maybe it is due to yields, which are actually up on the day. that's something we'll keep an eye on over this final hour. elsewhere, a brutal takday for shares of l nike following the lackluster guidance. the talk of the tape, how to invest in the second half. let's ask cameron dawson, chief investment officer for newedge wealth here at post nine. what's up with today's action? the pce came in, in line, no sur surprises, whatsoever. yields are elevated and after hitting these new highs for the s&p and the nasdaq, we kind of rolled a little bit. >> we are extended and overbought and maybe that say little bit of what's going on, which is that the pce was good, right in line, you did see some revisions higher in last month, so maybe that caused people to say, oh, all the data isn't great, but we have to respect the fact that though the trend is higher, in the very short-term you are hitting this wall, we're in the blackout

period for share repurchases, you're overbought, you have very extended valuations positioning. it is not surprising to see this little bit of a breather. we'll see if it continues, though. >> i don't know if you or one of the voters in our delivering alpha quarterly poll here, but we did ask people what's next for stocks. 36% say we're due for a drop of 5% or more by autumn. now, it is always hard to read into that, because you can say, well, we haven't had hardly any volatility. and we're only due for a drop because we really haven't had a drop. and when we have, it hasn't been even 5%. so, what does this all mean for where we go from here, do you think? >> i think that some of this momentum can continue into july. we know seasonals are supportive in july. you start getting into august and september, and you start looking around at some of the things that could drive the market higher. one thing we're talking about is that earnings for 25 are looking aggressive, very elevated and that's when you see analysts

roll forward their models and consider are we properly calibrated for 2025. we also have seen this deteriorating in some of the economic growth. how does that square with gdp forecasts which still remain elevated? >> is this one of the biggest risks then that earnings are too optimistic at a time when valuations are already what you would say are i had shistorical elevated? >> earnings are pricing in great news. now, the point is that earnings are still moving higher for 2025 and your 12-month forward numbers are trending higher. that's why this market remains so resilient. the question is if you start revising those numbers lower, because you're revising gdp lower, or you're saying that certain expectations are too aggressive, like margin expansion which has 100 basis points, incredibly aggressive, if those start to be revised lower, that's when we think you can hit more of an air pocket in the market. >> i heard people make the

argument that rate cuts, you don't want them because at this point it is going to mean that something is wrong. that the economy is slowing, that maybe it gets to the point that the fed has to step in rather than wants to step in at that moment because they're not fully confident that inflation is close enough toward a target. >> rate cuts because you can are great. rate cuts because you should are bad. and one of the things that we're seeing is finally starting to see the impact of higher rates on this economy. look at the housing data, look at the capital goods, durable goods, you're seeing this weight of higher interest rates on some economic activity. it is not bad enough yet to call and pull the recession alarm, we don't think we're slipping into a recession, but it is enough to suggest that maybe growth forecasts are a little bit too high. >> that says to me you probably think it is too soon to expect much broadening out of this market. >> i think so. the thing that has been the key driver of the narrowness of the

market is earnings narrowness. the s&p equal weight earnings continue to be revised lower. if you look in the back half of the year, the bar is highest for the 493 of the s&p 500. the consensus has those estimates going up to the high teens in the third quarter, the fo fourth quarter and first quarter of 2025. unless there is a good earnings reason for the market to broaden out, we don't think it will. >> i guess that's why when we ask the other question, what is the best investment right now, 45% of those asked big cap tech stocks. go where the money is. people still think this is going to be the winning trade. >> i think that it can be at least until 2025 when we start to see those earnings for the big cap tech start to slow down. the deceleration will be meaningful, the challenges that we know the big tech is already crowded, we know that big tech is extremely expensive when you look at the overall tech sector. it is above 2021 peaks.

>> you think it is extremely expensive? extremely? >> well, look, we never want to baseline our expectations to a once in a generation bubble that happened in the 2000s. if we look at growth versus value, growth is trading at an 80% premium to value. that's back to the 2021 peak. that's far lower than the 180% premium it got to at the peak in march of 2000. extreme may not be the right word. but compared to recent history, valuations are very elevated. >> i'm looking at a stock like nvidia, before the run was at, like, 60 times. now it is 40 times. so how would you assess what that stock has done? has it left the market a little more vulnerable? or not? >> i do think that what is interesting about nvidia is the last three months of its stock move have not been earnings revisions moving higher. the earnings have gone up, up by 8%. the stock is up by 80%. what you've seen is a return to

multiple expansion for a lot of these names. you can say the same thing about microsoft. its earnings revisions are only up 2.5% this year, a lot of it is multiple expansion. it is not to say they won't deliver those earnings and that that multiple expansion can't continue. it has to be given a good reason to stop before you see it reversed. >> when you look at other questions in our survey about outside of nvidia, which of those pure play a.i. related names are going to do the best, and microsoft tops that list. so there is still a lot of optimism around these stocks and i think investors are just willing to chase higher multiples because they just still believe that that's where the hype is going to be and that's where the real results are going to come from relative to everything else. >> narrative is a beautiful thing. as long as you still see these earnings revisions, which is a lot better than you're getting from industrials or energy or healthcare, which have all had huge earnings revisions lower over the last year, which means that those areas that you are hoping for to broaden out and to

give you a bit of diversity in leadership can't deliver on the earnings front so it gets more narrow. >> let's continue to debate this with christina hooper and malcolm etheridge. good to have everybody with us. a good segue from cameron to you, because you do think the broadening is going to happen. you do think that we should be buying value stocks and small cap stocks and cyclically sensitive stocks away from megacap tech. >> absolutely. because what is going to power this is the strength of the consumer. now the consumer's lower income consumers have come under pressure. that pressure will start to come off as inflation continues to ease. and so what we'll see is real wages improve and that will be an important catalyst. we'll also start to get rate cuts. i do believe we'll get two rate cuts this year and that will also be supportive of the consumer. and so if we don't see unemployment go up

significantly, this could be an environment where we actually see a reacceleration. so, that takes me to the cyclicals, to the small caps areas that are likely to more fully participate now. it is not going to be as narrow a market. >> you want to -- you want to come back at that? >> i think that we're growing a little bit more concerned about the consumer and seeing that it is the bottom cohorts of the consumer that are really starting to deteriorate and we don't necessarily see the catalyst for that big acceleration. i had a conversation with some industrial experts and talking about what they're seeing boots on the ground are saying the macro is bad, earnings estimates are getting cut, you're not seeing this lift, things like pmis. we get the update for the pmis next week which means that we're still in this muddle through economic surprises, still negative, and that's why we're still thinking that those with idiosyncratic earnings growth are those that lead. >> malcolm, how do you see this?

goldman's tony pasquariello, my instinct is now would be a good time to tap the brakes, a little bit anyway. it is a bull market but the probability of a drawdown is rising so i would look for the places to reduce overall portfolio risk as we navigate the next phase of this political game. what do you think? >> yeah, i don't see too much wrong in that argument when you look at names like nvidia, for example, who carried the market to this point. i think we're entering a space where maybe we don't hit the pause button, but we see a lot more volatility than the first half of the year. we're hanging our hats on the statistic that as we have a strong first half to the year, that means we're setting up for strong second half to the year and 15% so far to the positive really helps to make that case. i also think in order to get there, the ride is going to be pretty rough. anybody who is sitting on massive gains in names like microsoft and nvidia, apple, it is not a bad time to be looking at the least trimming the position or even putting in some

protective puts maybe if you're not willing to sell. separate from that, i don't know the broadening is going to extend as far as small caps and other names i just heard. i think where the broadening is likely to happen is really in those top s&p constituents, especially in tech. i think there will be a broadening across megacap tech as the a.i. narrative continues to power the markets right now. i don't know that it is going to extend to other places in the economy. >> christina, if the consumer and the economy are softening a bit, i think the evidence would suggest that that is, in fact, the case. wouldn't you be a little early for small caps? >> so it all depends on what happens to the consumer from here. we're certainly seeing those lower income consumers under pressure. we have seen credit card delinquencies go up, credit card balances go up. but that's relative to pretty low levels. we're where we were prepandemic and in some cases we look better than where we were prepandemic. so what i would argue is that we're at a crossroads now and the fed will be a big

determinant of what happens to the u.s. consumer. if they're willing to start cutting soon and i would make the argument that they can and should, then that could be a different outcome than if we stay at very high rates for a lot longer. >> so we have -- this is a binary conversation, that's what this essentially is. binary. if the fed cuts, twice, like you say, your trades are likely going to work, your positioning is probably going to be right. if they don't, it is not going to work. >> absolutely. so, let me give you why i think the fed will cut. right now with core pce at 2.6%, we have a fed funds rate that is 2.7% higher than that. that's the most restrictive we have been since 2007. if we look at the san francisco fed's proxy fed funds rate which factors in other monetary policy tools, we're at 6.3% right now. this is pretty restrictive given the environment and the progress we made on disinflation. so, i think this actually makes

the case for a july cut. i don't know if the fed will be that bold to do that, i think we will get a september cut if not a july cut. >> mohamed el-erian was with us and argued for the same reasons you mentioned too, he thinks the economy is weaker than most people would otherwise want to believe, that they should cut now. they should cut in july. now, i think the chances of that arereasonably low, right? pretty low at this point. others make the case that rate cuts for any reason are going to be positive for the market. that the chances of us going into a severe or steeper recession between now and the end of the year unlikely. but the fed wants to cut, they keep telling you they want to cut. bostic said, yeah, probably appropriate to cut later this year. and that's going to be positive. why get negative in front of that? >> i think that's a really fair point, which is that we do know that it can lift animal spirits, maybe it reenlivens the epo

market. if we get easing in the backdrop of policy, maybe we could see better activity. i think the challenge would be what does one or two cuts do to the underlying economic picture? if we are starting to tip into a softer period, does 50 basis points make that much of a difference? maybe it does. >> psychologically, doesn't it? it is not the 50 basis points that make the biggest difference. it is that 50 basis points is eventually going to become 100 basis points and probably 200 basis points and maybe 250 basis points. so you're at the start of something just like before when you were at the start of the hikes, the market saw that, and sold off. >> but the fed never cut rates by more than 75 basis points without a recession in the last 40 years. so if you're thinking that three basis -- three cuts leads to nine cuts which is what is priced in through the end of 2026, you're saying i think that growth is going to slow materially at some point. >> we also haven't had inflation

like this in those same 40 years. so, if you are forced to hike so much and so fast, and then you just want to normalize policy, it is like history kind of goes out the window. it is hard to cite precedent for what they have done toward what they might do next. >> the fed kept real fed funds rate for three-year periods before the 2000 cuts and the 2007 cuts. so there is prissecedent to kee real fed fund rates elevated. >> it feels like we're going to get one, at least, okay. is that good enough? is that good enough to take the s&p to the 6,000 target that every core isi has on it? i think they're the highest on the street right now. >> i'm leaning more toward cam cameron's camp. i think two or three cuts that you're talking about in the next nine months doesn't necessarily get us to a place where all of a sudden animal spirits come back

in the third of the russell 2000 companies that aren't even profitable suddenly start to power higher and lock in better endings. i don't know that is the case. i think one cut actually is negative like you started off talking about, where it makes investors enough to say, what is happening underneath the surface that the fed sees that we don't see, maybe it is time to get cautious and hit the brakes. and unless they're willing to go the six or seven cuts that are baked into a lot of the analysts expectations for next year, and make it clear that that's how aggressively they're looking to cut, i don't know that it actually helps. i think wedging somewhere in the middle does more harm than good, doesn't actually get us to where we want to be. i'm more concerned that the fed boxed itself in to where one cut in 2024, where we came into the year expecting six or seven, does more harm than good. >> we haven't even talked about alternatives to equities, right? fixed income, is i think there is a good amount of people still

sitting in cash, liking the near 5%, 4%, 5%, whatever they're getting. what about opportunities outside of stocks? >> so i think there is a lot of opportunity in fixed income. dare i say it is a golden age of fixed income? it looks like that way if you compare it to the last couple of decades. so there is a lot of opportunity and emerging markets bonds present opportunities, corporate bonds, high quality, high yield presents opportunities, munis, i'm really excited about munis right now. so, there is a lot of potential there. there are a lot of places for investors to go, including bank loans. >> you say corporate bonds, high up on the quality? >> investment grade, yes. also high quality, high yield. there are opportunities there. i don't think we're going to go into a recession anytime soon. that is a low probability in my opinion. i think locking in some level of duration makes sense as well. >> we think there is lots of opportunities within fixed

incomes, munis specifically. within credit we think we have to be very selective. what we have seen is spreads come in a ton. if you look at the spread between investment grade and high yield, you're seeing lower today than it was in 2021. so it just means that credit is priced for perfection, priced for perfection because people don't see recession risk. if that starts to kick up, be aware there is not a lot of whiw whiw wiggle room to surprise to the downside. >> everybody going to be watching the equity -- the major averages, but bond yields is interesting today, right? the fact that yields are up with the pce, is the direction of yields still going to be the deciding factor for the near term and where stocks go? >> yeah. i think actually assuming the ladies are right and fixed income is about to finally join the party as far as that side of the portfolio becoming more important than it has been in

quite some time, i think that might actually be seen as a negative for the markets as well, considering the yield curve would actually have to normalize at that point and we haven't had that conversation meaningfully in quite some time about what happens after the yield curve finally normalized after being inverted for so long. i think that does at least bring it back into the zeitgeist, which from a narrative perspective can't be constructive for markets, especially in a place where we're already talking about being on a razor's edge because valuations have gotten way stretched beyond our imagination. >> disagree with that? >> no, i think that that is very reasonable. we do wonder if one of the reasons why yields are up is because of the results of the debate last night. and the question of will trump's policies potentially be more inflationary? when you think about the labor market, tariffs, things that could potentially cause inflation to reaccelerate, i don't think anybody is pricing in a 2025 reacceleration in inflation. that would be a big surprise. >> yeah. glad you mentioned that.

cameron, thank you, christina, thank you, malcolm, see you soon. good weekend, everybody. seema mody has the stocks that are moving into the close. >> scott, 40 minutes left in trade. look at synchrony financial, the best performer on the s&p 500. 5.6%, baird calls the stock a solid investment within the consumer financials sphere. and tractor supply says it is done with corporate diversity and many environmental efforts. the retailer known for selling animal feed and work wear says it is eliminating all jobs focused on diversity, equity and inclusion and withdrawing its carbon emission goals. it is currently higher by .7%. >> seema, we'll come back to you in a little bit. up next, trading tech many in the second half.

we'll find out where investors should be putting their money to work and the one big name being trimmed right now. we'll tell you after the break. we're live at the new york stock exchange. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. (vo) a successful business owner sells his company and takes on a passion project with his son - restoring his father's jazz club, and in the process, revitalizes a community landmark. from selling a business to giving back to where you come from, a raymond james financial advisor gets to know you, your family and the way you bring people together. that's life well planned.

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nasdaq pulling back from a record intraday high earlier as we close out the first half of the year. will the historic momentum in the tech sector continue into the second half? let's ask king lipp of baker avenue wealth management. welcome back. you think there is momentum here and it can continue through the summer? >> hi, scott, yes. we don't see a lot of evidence of tech slowing. if anything you can argue that it is accelerating. amazon hit an all time high this week. alphabet hit an all time high. other laggards like tesla in the magnificent seven saw 11% gains

this past month. so we're expecting tech momentum to continue through the summer. i do think we're going to hit some resistance in september and october. i think there is typically seasonal weakness during that time. i think the election uncertainty would cause some investors to take some profits and potentially rotate to other names. >> are we getting into dicey multiple expansion territory? the fundamentals around these companies just can't keep improving every single week to justify the kind of price action and acceleration we have seen in the stock prices. so, how do we match these two things together? >> it has been a very unusual time, scott, in terms of how these companies are performing. it is incredible how companies like amazon, nvidia are having able to grow their earnings, not just single digits, but double digit digits, despite the size. i would agree with you how can

companies keep up like this? the companies have been so well managed through thick and thin that during times like this, when the economy is growing, they're able to grow their earnings quite significantly. so, there is a reason why tech is so large. and a percentage in the s&p is the companies have delivered. >> how much risk do you think is around earnings, which are admittedly still a few weeks away. but nonetheless, that's going to be a moment of truth. >> so far we're seeing still pretty decent earnings. micron is closest to the a.i. business recently. yes, the stock dropped on earnings, dropped a couple of a percent, but not to be unexpected since the expectations were so high on micron. and nevertheless, analysts raised their estimates. micron's news suggested that capital spin is going to continue to increase significantly, so despite higher

expectations, we still see these thoughts having good long-term views. >> micron, if you want to go there, the stock is still down 6% this week. right? >> it is. and we expect -- we have seen a little bit of a pullback in semiconductor names. perhaps not surprisingly so. expectations are high among many semiconductor names. but there is still names that are in our opinion quite cheap. and names like intel, for example, that are still selling at or below the historical averages with multiples with upside potential. we have seen some rotation from semiconductor names into software, into cybersecurity, into cloud, those areas have underperformed semiconductors. their expectations are lower. so we're seeing not investors getting out of the tech trade, but just rotating into other

industries. >> i also want to make clear here, since june 10th, you've trimmed nvidia, right? you have taken a little bit of money off the table. tell me about the thought process behind that. even as you remain obviously bullish on the space. >> we have, we have owned nvidia for several years, even before this huge a.i. boost in the stocks, our clients have done very well. for us, it is more portfolio management if you would. our long-term thesis hasn't changed. we're taking some chips off the table, not too dissimilar to jensen huang selling roughly $750 million worth of his stock. we're taking some profits. and redeploying into other names that we think have good upside. we're potentially just better valuations. >> you added to intel, can you tell me why you did that? along with tesla too. the intel to me sounds a little

more interesting. >> so, intel, first of all, the product line looks very attractive for intel in terms of its a.i. initiatives. stock looks cheap as i just mentioned. catalyst is the company ramping up under a.i. chips. it is domestic chip fabrication, if you would, to compete against the likes of telling, semi, for example, we think u.s. and china are in a cold war. if that's the case, the importance of domestic chip manufacturing becomes ever more important. and finally we have intel buying the stock. how many executives in their tech companies are buying stock these days and intel is one of the few. >> well, i mean, they probably see a stock down 30% in three months and say, i guess we might as well buy it back now. what about tesla? why did you buy more? >> well, we were actually encouraged by the fact that the

stockholder agreement was passed for elon's pay package. we thought there was some threat there that if it hadn't, you know, passed, that elon may have resigned from the company, so we're encouraged by that. i think tesla is one of the few -- one of the companies where i think the company's a.i. initiatives haven't been fully recognized by the market. so we do think there is upside potential there. we're going to be looking forward toward the shareholder day in august for more information on how the companis' robo taxi fleet could come to fruition. >> good stuff. king, be well. we'll see you soon. king lip. up next, the fate of the rally, can stocks sustain this strength for the rest of the year? eric wallersteen is with us. he'll tell us what he thinks and where he thinks the markets are heading. what the fed's next move should be versus atwh it might be. he'll join us at post nine after the break.

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welcome back. the s&p and nasdaq are sitting on double digit gains for the year. both hit new highs earlier today before pulling back. so can this record-setting rally continue or are the markets set up for a second half slump? let's ask eric wallersteen, he's here at post nine. welcome back. >> thank you. >> ed has been on a lot. and he's obviously bullish. he gives us his bullish perspective when he comes on.

but your target for the end of this year is still 5400, right? you profess you're staying with that as well. that tells me you're a tinge negative for what's going to happen between now and the rest of the year, is that right? >> yeah, with our valuations, we had a top line expectation around 20 on the forward, and we might be getting more of a meltup. we think if the fed cuts, that will be a much bigger problem. >> so stocks are too rich? that's the bottom line? they have gone too far? >> i wouldn't say too rich and stocks can continue to get richer. but i think -- >> in eterms of multiple, you'r questioning the multiple at this level. >> it could be a little ebullient. i don't think that's a huge issue. >> the fed, you do not think that they should cut rates this year. >> no. definitely not.

i think the whole idea that as inflation falls closer to target, which it is, if you look at core pce and take out shelter, we're below the fed's 2% target. we're getting there as long as measured rents continue to fall. if you cut rates, you're risking inflation refueling. i'm not sure why you would do that. the experience last summer in q4 gave them a little hesitation with doing that too early. >> if you don't cut, you risk the economy rolling over. so what side of the coin do you want to play? >> the jobs market looks good. growth looks good. if we look at jobless claims below 250,000, payrolls were great last month, we'll get the next read on friday in the following week, but i don't see the weakness that requires you to cut. >> you say that -- ed i think made this point too, the fed put is back. so, if -- even if you say that, the implication is that the fed is going to come to the rescue no matter what. they're either going to cut because inflation comes down or

because they have to and are you suggesting that under neither scenario is going to be good for stocks if they cut? >> if they cut because inflation is falling, not because the labor market is unwinding, that will help fuel a big meltup in the stock market and valuations will expand even further. we could get to 6,000 on the s&p 500 if they start cutting when the labor market looks fine. >> they're telling you that they want to cut. and market is still pricing in a couple of cuts. >> the market is pricing in seven cuts. the market is the market. you believe what they give you. that's what's being priced in. i think on balance the market is saying, hey, they might cut, maybe the labor market unwinds and they cut four times. that all kind of works itself into the median projections. but i don't think they need to cut and they already started rolling back qt. the balance sheet policy is starting to become easier. in some ways they are easing a little bit. >> what about the narrow market? what do we take from that?

>> this week we saw a little bit of weakness in nvidia. we think there will be more rotation from the magnificent seven or megacap eight to the other 490. people try to figure out what to do with a.i. we'll start to see more rotation, i think. >> there is a controversy about that. whether there is actually going to be a broadening. the economy is slowing. it is slowing. the consumer -- some of the consumer data would suggest the consumer is slowing too. if that's going to happen and there aren't going to be any rate cuts, why is the broadening trade going to work? >> does it really need to broaden anytime soon? the best analog is 1990s, right? info tech and communication services, we'll call them tech, around 41% of the index's market cap back then. less than a quarter of the forward earnings. today they're around the same valuation but they're a third of

the forward earnings of the s&p. a lot of earnings are probably -- they're forward. they're more realizable. nvidia is selling to apple, google, big companies that are going to survive. it is not like the 90s where you're relying on not great demand. >> i just find it hard to believe when people make the case that the market is going to broaden from here, like to small caps, for example, like the russell 2000, without -- in the same breath they say, i don't think there is going to be rate cuts either, but the market is going to broaden out. >> i think broadening out within the s&p 500 is more likely. small caps are just a far worse index in terms of how they're constructed. half the debt in that index are just under is floating rate. that kills the companies. >> talking about regional banks and everything else. >> yes. >> all right, we'll see. eric, thanks. good to have you here. up next, we're tracking the biggest movers into the close. we're going back to seema who is standi ing with that. >> a mixed view on the state of the consumer, you think about

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16 minutes from the bell. back to seema now. tell us what you see. >> we'll start with nike, scott. nike shares tanking today after the company slashed its outlook. it is the worst performer in the s&p 500 by far. ceo john donahue pointing to weakness in china and softness in the business overall. the results adding to pressure on the company and the ceo who is starting to lose wall street's confidence after a lackluster fiscal year. the stock is down 20%. but a very different picture from some of the companies in the travel space that are talking about a very strong consumer. estee lauder on pace for the third consecutive monthly loss. shares fell after laurel ceo

told investors in paris that he expects slowing growth for the beauty market this year, shares down 4.6%. back to you. >> all right, appreciate that, seema. thank you. seema mody. still ahead, shares of first solar cinching. we're going to tell you what's behind that move today. and how the broader solar space is holding up amid the slide. we're coming right back. being a proud member of the lgbtq+ community, i tried to not let it define me, but be a key part of who i am. in a world where visibility and representation matter, you never know who you can be influencing around you. i am proud of my family, and the work that i do every day creating life saving medications.

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we're pback on the bell. the arms race was a huge theme for the start of 2024. and rosenblat is revealing their best a.i. and tech ideas for the second half. for those names you can head to cnbc.com/propick or scan the qr code on your screen right there. up next, bank capital announcements are set to hit the tape in less than one hour. we're going to run you through what to watch for, what's at

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people couldn't see my potential. so i had to show them. i've run this place for 20 years, but i still need to prove that i'm more than what you see on paper. today i'm the ceo of my own company. it's the way my mind works. i have a very mechanical brain. why are we not rethinking this? i am more... i'm more than who i am on paper.

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solar stocks today. most of the big banks, they'll announce plans for excess capital after the bell today. leslie picker is following the money for us as well. mike, we're going to pull the curtain down on the first half of the year. pretty good one for stocks at the index level. >> very good one. i think if you extrapolate, you say what tends to happen next, after you have the first half like this. it almost all tilts to a positive bias, we can say that for sure. you can also say the end of the first quarter, i'm very mindful of the experience at the end of the first quarter is very celebratory. that's a little more overbought. we were all in, we had had the momentum break, you know, nvidia peaked a few weeks earlier. we were heading into an earnings season that was going to be good and it was good. and you still had a little bit of chop along the way because of where expectations had been, and because of what treasury yields did. and they broke up toward higher end of the range, toward 4.5%, you flagged it earlier, but the bond market reaction today

wasn't what you would probably expect from a benign pce inflation number. i don't want to attribute too much to it. what do you want on and off your books comes into play. be mindful of it as you head into the second alf. >> i heard any number of excuses for the move higher in yields including the performance in the debate last night by president trump and what his policies could mean toward the inflation picture, what that means for yields and everything else >> if you just looked at how equities and bonds reacted during and after the debate, it would support some of that reflux reaction. i still refuse to believe that that's going to set the course for the next four months until the election, a lot of ebb and flow around that based on the data and the fed and all the rest of it. but i think you're on alert a little bit. you started out with a strong market, it is more like 50/50 now. >> pippa, tell us about solar stocks. >> solar stocks are getting

crushed today. it seems to be a post debate overhang. the group has been a big beneficiary of president biden's inflation reduction act. even if trump wins, nobody i've spoken with expects a total appeal of the i.r.a. but it adds an element of uncertainty for the solar stocks. first solar is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the law since it is the largest domestic panel manufacturer. those shares down nearly 10%. still, last night, deutsche bank reiterated its buy on the stock, raising its target to 280. that's about 23% above where trades now. it has a tangible growth plan, and that the commercial and utilities space it operates in is highly immune to the weakness around residential demand. scott? >> pippa, appreciate you. just a comment from you. again, as we -- you maybe the turn in an election year, you start every day to be one day closer to the actual results. so it is never too early at this point to -- energy, healthcare,

those are the kinds of conversations, regulation around certain industries, scotus decision today, on chevron, regarding regulation there. now is the time to start thinking about stocks and sectors relative to results in november. >> it is time to start thinking about it and start to game o scenarios. i agree with that. it may be not the time to have a high conviction call one way or the other. >> of course not. >> what i remember, for example, the last time around, let's say 2016, 2017, with president trump there, you had the domestic basket, it was going to benefit from tax cuts and tariffs and the global baskets of stocks. they would whip around as one basically every day. so, probably in for some of that. i don't know that it necessarily sort of nets out to this is going to be the whole story. >> for sure. i agree with that well made point. leslie picker, so, i guess we're going to expect some announcements after the close today from the banks.

>> yes, we will. all 31 banks that were subjected to the fed's stress test survive the hypothetical recession and soon in 30 minutes time we'll find out how much of that excess capital will go to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends. minimum capital requirements actually went up for almost all of the banks, meaning less available to give back to the market. jeffrey said most banks burned worse year over year with goldman and wells fargo facing the brunt of it. only a few like huntington and city fared better with decreases to their projected capital requirements. still, the market really shrugging off what was tougher than expected results and focused on the potential watering down of proposed capital rules. until there is more clarity on the regulatory side, banks may continue to hoard that capital and get a sense for how much of it in a half hour's time. >> we'll see. we'll look forward to that. leslie picker thank you for that.

nike, one of the worst days ever after the earnings, the guidance was disappointing, down 20% today. what is your takeaway here? >> it is hard and the action shows to get clarity on whether this turn around is going to really get traction and whether the next few quarters will return at the top line growth. i think when you have a move like this and sell side capitulation to a degree today, all the downgrades, where the street has shown a lot of forbearance because the brand value is so elite, you have to start asking is it overdone in the short-term? on a price to sales basis, it is, like, 5% of sales. forget about the earnings picture. that is as low as you get for something -- some retail, really impaired retailers trade down, sorry, that is the walgreens number. price to sales on nike is down to levels you haven't seen in 11 years. point being we have wiped away a lot of whatever residual optimism there was. we'll see if that matters. >> some stunners over the last

month or six weeks or so, right? starbucks, really premium brand names post earnings. >> people look through the near term results because of the quality, the franchise, over and over and over again. >> there is the bell. we'll go out red to mark the end of the quarter and the end of the first half of the year. it is going to be exciting. i'll see you on the other side of the weekend. a good one to all of you. "overtime" is up next. >> well, the s&p 500 and the nasdaq touching record intraday highs on this final session of the first half. but, gains faded as yields rose with nike's plunge taking a big chunk out of the dow. that is the score card on wall street. welcome to "closing bell: overtime." i'm jon fortt. morgan brennan is off today. it is a pivotal hour for anyone invested in the banks as firms release their capital allocation plans following wednesday's