earnings. we'll transition over to the big picture. >> what a first half it was, mike. 15% higher on the s&p. that's quite something. >> you'll hear a lot of talk on monday about how that usually foretells upside down the road. nothing guaranteed. >> of course, mike. see you on the other side. that'll do it for "overtime." "fast money" starts now. ♪ thank you very much. live from the nasdaq markets in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." on tap tonight, running afoul. shares of nike erasing more than four years of gains after its earnings report last night, trading at levels not seen since the depths of the pandemic. the move has one of our traders hitting the buy button. we'll find out who and why. plus, the first half of 2024 is in the books. hard to believe. we're at halftime, folks. will the year-to-date winners keep leading the market through the next two quarters? we'll debate that and lay out

your playbook for the rest of the year. later, banks lay out their post-stress test capital plans. a lot of dividend hikes when we count down to tesla's delivery numbers and a check on our 2024 trader acronyms. karen at the helm. t is tim flexing his bicep? we'll reveal the leaderboard later. good morning. i'm tyler mathisen in for melissa lee from studio b at the nasdaq. at the desk, tim seymour. he's not here, but we'll couldn't him on the desk. karen, courtney, steve grasso, welcome one and all. >> thanks for being here, tyler. >> thanks for having me. we start with a historic plunge in shares of nike. that stk seeing by far the biggest drop in the s&p 500, underperforming the second worst stock by a factor of two. nike's near 20% plunge marks its worst day since going public in 1980. all after a massively

disappointing earnings report last night. the sneaker giant missing earnings and revenue forecasts for the quarter, slashing guidance. it now expects fiscal year 2025 sales to be down mid single digits. analysts were looking for nearly 1% growth. current quarter, nike expects sales to drop 10%, warning of slower online sales, macro uncertainty in china. never a good thing. and, quote, uneven consumer trends around the world. the stock closing the day at its lowest level since march of 2020. steve, you are a buyer here amidst a really soggy report. >> yeah. it's not to say that i'm so happy about the report or i think i'm bullish on the report. there's a couple things going on. a, they have the olympics. we talked about this. this is going to be an overwhelmingly important marketing event for nike, and i think they're going to shadow out all the competition as far as the branding and the marketing ability and the advertising and the pr.

i think that's going to be in their corner. secondarily, when you have this opening line, worst drop ever, that makes me want to buy something. >> yeah. >> makes me want to buy something. things overcorrect. markets shoot way too high and they shoot way too low. algorithms push the market, and the average lot size in an algorithm is sub 100 little shares. it creates this chase. if you want to get out of a stock and you have 100 other institutions trying to get out of the stock, it feeds on itself. it overshoots the level that it should be at. you also said that it was around the pandemic low. this is not a pandemic. greater china is about 15% of overall volume. north america, they have issues. they also have issues with competition, but i think they're going to be able to have this flush, people will let it settle in. i don't think i bought the bottom, but i think it is a good start of where the bottom could be. >> karen, you own it. you listened to the call, you

said. >> yeah, last night. >> was the call worse than the debate or better than the debate? >> i couldn't watch the debate. i couldn't watch it so i don't know. >> so you weren't there? >> as a shareholder, i'd rather do this. listen to that than the debate. so a lot of things i thought about the call. i mean, one, obviously, it wasn't about the quarter, the guidance was awful. one thing that stood out to me on the call was i think, you know, trying to rally the troops, was talking about how proud he was of this team. i don't know. they may be working super hard, but i don't think the results right now are anything to really be proud of. >> to be cheering your team over. >> right. i think a little mai mea culpa, fire in the belly would have been a better reaction than, i'm so proud of what we've accomplished. because a lot of things were going wrong, right? >> yeah. >> some within their control, some without. china being slower is not really in their control, but their

aggressive overshift to direct-to-consumer, now shifting away, they did okay in performance but leaving lifestyle. i mean, losing share to on, hoka, new balance, adidas. >> they don't own the area the way they used to. you have adidas, on, hoka. >> the bloom is off the rose now. my hope, the three-day rule, i think -- steve and i were talking about this in the green room. i changed the three-day ruhle. after hours trading is day one, this is day two, and i'll look again at day three. i was surprised the analysts weren't more disappointed with this, actually. the new numbers, they have higher pe multiples. i don't think -- they should be in the penalty box for a while. one other thing, the question about, is donahoe still the guy?

took over in 2020, terrible time to take over a consumer products company. he does know the company very well because he was on the board before that. this interviiew about knight talking about he's still our guy. >> sounds like givingan endorsement to a manager. >> it was definitely not what howard schultz did, which was awful. it was definitely not that. but, i mean, the pressure is on him now. my hope is that they put out numbers so low that they feel very, very confident that they can beat them and get back into the little bit of momentum in the stock but also having their credibility somewhat restored. >> yeah, all of their global sales, north america, europe, asia, pacific, latin america, all missing and substantially. whenever sales go down like that, it is definitely not a good sign. we have a little breaking news out of the financial sector. banks outlining what they plan to do with their capital excess after this week's stress test

results. leslie picker has been going over the details. a lot of dividend hikes here, leslie, i think. >> a lot of dividend hiex. goldman sachs hiking to $3 per share from 2 -- $2.75 since 2024. the byproduct of the stress test results from earlier this week tells a bank how much excess capital above the relgulatory minimum it needs to hold, based on how they performed on the test. that buffer is 6.4%. in a statement, the chairman and ceo, david solomon, says, quote, this increase does not seem to reflect the strategic evolution of our business and the continuous progress we've made to reduce our stress loss intensity, which the federal reserve had recognized in the

last three tests. we will engage with our regulator to better understand their determination. so the increase he is referring to is the increase in the stress capital buffer, the amount of capital that the firm needs to hold above the minimum. so that is kind of the interesting story with goldman which just came out. you can see shares little changed on this news, however. we did, as you mentioned, tyler, see some news on dividend hikes, as well, from the other firms. wells fargo said it has an intention to raise the dividend by 14% to $40 per share from -- i'm sorry -- 40 cents per share from 35 cents per share. also assessing its capacity to buy back stock. jpmorgan increasing the quarterly common stock dividend to $1.25 per share, about 8.6%. it's the second dividend increase that firm has done this year. jpmorgan also saying it has plans to have a new common share repurchase program of $30

billion beginning july 1st. morgan stanley increased its dividend by 7.5 cents per share for the third year in a row. making its quarterly common stock dividend of 92.5 cents per share thereand also renewing $20 billion worth of a share repurchase program. city increased its dividend, as did bank of america, as well. interesting results given what was largely seen as a tougher-than-expected stress test this year, tyler. >> leslie picker reporting. thank you very much. the banks maybe most pointedly, pick a bank, any, goldman, any other that strikes you. >> yeah, really, the banks have started to look attractive here. when you come into the stress tests, there was a lot of concern as they were going to be stronger than usual. these banks have already set aside the capital, anticipating it was going to be stronger requirements this year. that's what you're seeing. they're able to increase dividends and return more capital to shareholders even after this, which is a positive

sign. i'd look at the big bank. jpmorgan, you can't go wrong with them. that's something to constantly look at, but it is not a bad thing to be a part of here. >> tim, thoughts? >> hey, tyler. first of all, i think the difference between who is buying back shares and who is paying higher dividends is always interesting. jpmorgan, not surprisingly, talking about buy backs. citi bank is paying 3.5% dividend yield right now after a 75% move in the bank. in a discussion and a backdrop for efficiencies and an ability, probably, to generate even more cash flow. it's my largest of the money center bank positions, and i think it's just about rerating. i think of the macro for the banks, the consumer has a job. inflation outlook has gotten a little better. rates remain high. we got a little lost in higher rates, and sometimes that was bad for banks. the capital flight dynamics certainly were. higher rates typically have meant higher spreads on loans, and certainly higher nims. that's really the story here.

banks that are beleaguered for years and years, and if you look back to the may svb incident of last year, it's only in the past couple months banks exceeded some of those levels. i think they have room to go. >> karen, are you into the banks or not? >> yes, i am. a lot of bank exposure. jp moh ppmorgan i like. the biggest exposure now is citi bank. i have some bank of america. i'm not as delighted with them. jpmorgan is, you know, the fortress battle sheet. they're able to do $30 billion in buybacks. although, because they trade at a premium to book, as they buy significantly overbook, they have more expensive price to book. it's kind of expensive to buy back the stock, but i like it. i think we'll see good numbers. the economy is hanging in there. and we're going to start to see more m&a, more fees in the asset wealth management. >> asset banking coming back a bit. >> yeah. asset management is doing well.

>> steve, thoughts? >> so i usually always go to a default, and i follow karen on the jpmorgan. jpmorgan seems to be the leader of the pack. you know, i think at the end of the day, just pull the lens back, jamie dimon is not going to be there forever. i think there is a jamie dimon premium to jpmorgan. i'm sure he is going to or they will backload it so that there will be some great news that comes out when jamie is no longer there. he is savvy enough, smart enough to be able to do that. tim, karen have been talking about citi group. citi group outperformed on a yearly basis the rest of the banks. jpmorgan, bank of america, year-to-date are pretty much the same. wells fargo was the most improved player. people are playing citi group as the biggest turnaround story, if you will, and they're probably comfortable stay winning that. all right. let's turn now to the broader market. stocks wrapping up a big first half of the year. the dow with a model 3.8% gain,

but the s&p and was nearly 15%. we know why. we'll tell you in a minute. the nasdaq, the real standout here, up more than 18% since january. nvidia, that's the why. its massive run boosted the tech-heavy index and helped the s&p. major markets closed near the lows of the session today, though, even after both the s&p and nasdaq hit new intraday records in early trade. nasdaq crossed the 18,000 mark for the first time ever. investors digesting this morning's economic data. core pce, the prime among them, increasing a 0.1% for the month and up just 2.6% from a year ago. that is the lowest annual rate in more than three years. i think the pce is the one that the fed likes to follow. consumer sentiment also coming in a little better than expected. what's in store for stocks in the second half? folks, any thoughts here? >> yeah, i think the pce numbers are really important here. that's what the markets have

been doing, is holding their breath with what's going to happen with inflation. you're now seeing a 95% chance the fed is going to lower interest rates at least one time this year. the question is when that'll happen. is it going to be september? is that going to be later? but with numbers like we had out today, being they're data dependent, it is more and more likely that will happen at some point in time. i think that's what we want to focus on. you also saw consumer spending information, consumer income. you saw incomes were up half a percent last month, which is good. inflation coming down, income going up, consumer is on good footing, a good backdrop for the economy. >> steve, second half forecast? >> historically, the second is going to outperform, as well, when you have the first half perform so well, as well as we've seen it perform so far. you do have to look forward to the rate cuts. i think the consensus is around september for the first rate cut. if you look on an historic basis, seasonality, the first 15

days of july are positive dating back to 1928 in the market. >> the first 15 days -- >> 28? what happened right after that? >> i don't know. [ laughter ] >> so when you think about it, that goes back. that's a pretty good data set. >> yeah. >> when you're looking at that, you're fighting with seasonality if you're a bear. doesn't mean the second half of july you can't get a pullback. i still think we should see a pullback between now and the end of the year. we should touch that 200th day as a blip, not for a long process, but i think it'll be healthy to see a nice, little drawdown, then see -- or a big drawdown. >> you usually, don't you, get a post-election bump up, no matter who wins? is that generally the case? >> not in mexico, no. it went terribly wrong. >> thoughts on the market going from here? >> i mean, i'm staying with what i've got. i do think maybe we'll see a cut. i guess. i don't know it makes that much of a difference because we won't

see a series of cuts. why do we need to do that? >> yeah. >> i don't -- until inflation is really back in the bottle, which is hard to do. >> yeah. >> i don't know why it needs to. >> coming down but it's not there yet. >> it is sticky. >> it's a long one. the last mile is a long one. how about, you, tim? >> i look at the market, and everyone is trying to drum up comparisons to 1999. look, the move the market haves had is so extraordinary. i think it is time to at least put in the books that this is one of the greatest bull markets of all time. one of the least loved. that's often a formula in great bull markets on some level. i think a lot of people have been calling for recession. a lot of people have been concerned about the lack of breath. 34% move on the s&p from last october. 58% from october of '22. those numbers are what they are, but if you think about the s&p relative to other times, the '99 period on a free cash flow basis is trading two standard deviations cheap to where we were in '99. again, i'm less concerned about

the lack of breath in the m market. we've had periods where you've seen outperformance. it doesn't bother me energy traded off. i'm a long-term investor in energy. i like how the sector is being run. i'm a long-term investor in banks. the backdrop we have, which is one everyone talked about with a relatively benign rate and inflation environment, pretty good for the stock market. so i think there's still a lot of people that are looking for weakness to buy, not weakness to sell. there's a lot of fear out there, and i think right now the fundamentals -- obviously, look, i don't like consumer discretionary. we talked about nike. we talked about lulu. competitive issues. i won't get back to that conference other than to say, it's not just about competition. it's not just about economies tha -- at companies looking at different dynamics and gross margin. the consumer is in a tough place, and discretionary will come under tough pressure thanks. concern about investor

overconfidence the next six months. chris harvey is the head of strategy. welcome. how do you react to what tim said about the consumer maybe getting a little more timid? are you seeing any signs of that? >> so, tyler, what i think is happening with the consumer is you don't have to worry about the consumer buckling under. the finances are okay. what you have to worry about is where he or she is going to spend their money, right? what we're seeing is the consumer saying, i'm not paying that for that. where are they spending their money? they're spending it at costco, walmart. they're spending in tjx, alis, burlington, off price. what is that telling you? they're stretched. they're not finding a lot of y utility in the market, and they're being very, very selective. that's what we should expect going forward. don't expect a ton from the consumer, but the consumer is not going to knuckle under at this point in time. they'll be very, very selective. >> let's talk about the great hero of the first half of the year, and that would be nvidia, which has been on wells fargo's sort of hot list for quite a while. >> yeah. >> what do you see in nvidia?

is it, if you own a bunch of it, is it time to trim? some people are doing that. it's become such a large part of their portfolio. there's some inertia. >> tyler, exactly what we did. so we have it in our -- excuse me, in our sig picks portfolio, the best ideas. >> sig picks? >> rolls off the tip of your tongue. >> that's why you named it that. >> signature picks portfolio. >> okay. >> got it. >> top idea for a while. it's performed, as you know, exceptionally well. we just keep bumping up into our risk control. we trim it back. we trim it back, but it still remains one of the top ideas. the bigger picture, right, nvidia is part of the momentum trade. is that momentum trade going to break, bend? what is it going to do? we think that the momentum trade is only going to bend here. it's not going to break because a lot of the macro factors you need to break it just aren't where they need to be.

whether it is credit spreads, whether it's the valuation of the basket or the economy, which is not accelerating. >> you're not that worried about investor confidence. >> no. this is a period in the market where people put on on and on risk. you're not getting penalized for putting on more and more risk. the beginning of the year, many people thought the fed would be cutting several times at this point. what was their penalty? s&p up 15%. when that occurs, i feel pretty good. like in vegas, just put it in the middle and let's keep it going. >> anybody have a quick question for chris before we let him go? >> how much of the seasonality are you putting into it? how much of the election cycle are you putting into it? when you're rolling in -- not to get too far ahead of it -- but when you look at q1 of 2025, at whoever is in office right there, is it a let the air out of the balloon event? >> right. a lot there. the first thing i would say is that the presidential cycle is really important. we saw what happened with the

debate. former president trump's probability went higher. that's really important to the market because if he wins, the probability the senate goes gop also is very high. what does that do? that's a more -- it's a less regulatory strict environment, right? what you should see is more m&a activity. if you have more m&a activity, more ipos, more risk seeking, and the market can go higher. traditionally, with a gop senate, that's a very good formula for the equity market. >> there you go. chris harvey, thanks very much. appreciate your time tonight. >> thank you. >> have a good weekend. >> in thoughts here, court? comment? >> i see what you're saying with the overconfidence because you're starting to get the investors who are continuing for this fomo trade. they want to go to the risky areas of the market. on the flip side of that, you're seeing record levels of cash. there's this two sections happening right now, and people are invested. they want to be risky and get these high returns. on the flip side, they're not willing to put all their cash in. that's happening at the retail and institutional investors. that's where there will be

another leg of this. the second interest rates come down and money markets aren't paying better, you'll start to see some of the money go back in. probably not to the high-flying areas but the broader market. some point in time, you'll see that, as well. >> you're positive on the markets the next six months then? >> we are, yes. >> good. let's take a break, shall we? coming up, dell dropping despite a big, positive call from citi. the major catalyst the firm says could turn this name into a key a.i. player. a number of fast movers catching our attention. the trades on all these moves when "fast money" returns in two minutes.

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folks, welcome back to "fast money." citi staying bullish on dell despite the recent pullback. analysts maintaining the pick on the stock as it expects the name to lead in computer hardware. citi sees dell as a beneficiary of strong a.i. data spin, and as a potential new member of the s&p. citi also bullish on apple after

what it calls the phonemaker's best worldwide developers conference ever. karen, thoughts on these two? >> yeah. dell i like, i own. i like the story. i feel like we're in the early innings. stock was higher. when they reported earnings, there was disappointment for the margin for the second half. i think they're just right where they want to be on a.i. storage, server. they also have, hopefully, the enterprise will come back, but they also have the pc business. i think we will see a second half pc refresh, the combination of during the pandemic, people were buying tons of pcs, getting four years into that. now, we'll have some a.i. enabled, microsoft and others, and i think that'll be a good catalyst for a pc refresh, as well. a lot of good things going. not super expensive. although it is a hardware company, so multiples should be cheaper. it's not super expensive given the explosive a.i. growth.

i like it right here. >> how fascinating, the evolution that company has had, from being one of the -- >> many times, right. >> many times. great stock in the 1990s. >> right. then dell sold it and bought it back. >> buys it back. now, they're talking about putting it back. tim, any thoughts here on apple or dell? >>. >> i've added to apple in the last month, and i think it's certainly got an argument, especially in favor of the software part of the business. we spend a lot of time talking about the refresh, but more importantly, just i think the core part of the capital markets business. on dell, at that last quarter, we got a couple really important things. firstly, we did get margin choppiness. a gross margin down almost 220 basis points. i think you'll continue to see that. as karen used the term early innings, i think, by the way, nice we use that on a day when we talked about the yankees. we should really talk about the yankees' weakness as of late. >> embarrassing. >> guy's not on the show, so

we'll wait. i had to sneak that in. i think it's a case where $3.8 billion in a.i. server backlog is dell friendly. the pc refresh cycle karen r referred to is dell friendly. the pullback on a move from april of last year is something you should have happen. you'll have an opportunity to buy the stock cheaper, but the reinvention, even the core part of the hardware business is something i think people will want to own. >> yeah. yankees having a bit of a nike moment. steve? >> can i take it anywhere i want to go? you want me to go dell, apple? which way you want me to go? everyone counted out apple. everyone was talking about china sales. you see how quickly that can change. that's always transitory when it comes to apple. they pull a rabbit out of the hat. now they're looking at apple intelligence. that's going to be a refresh cycle, same way pcs are a refresh cycle for dell. you'll get people like me, iphone 13, who will reup. this will be a refresh of all refreshes. >> thanks a lot.

coming up, risky business. why payment stocks could be paying the price as restaurant wreckage ravages, and the dangers facing the space and the names with the most to lose. we'll tell you about that. first, trump media, first solar, and bitcoin, how the traders are handling the moves. you're watching "fast money" live from the markets in times square. we're back right after this. ] ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ ♪ [thunder rumbles] ♪ ♪ your shipping manager left to “find themself.”

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no. no. no. no. no. no. [ gasps ] [ chuckling ] good job, junior. way to go. [ chuckling ] [ speaking minionese ] welcome back to "fast money." stocks dipping into the red to close out a red hot first half of 2024. the dow falling 45 points. s&p dropping nearly a half percent. nasdaq losing about 25 mopoints. both those ladtter indexes hitting intraday records today. trump media plunging nearly 11% today after getting a boost during last night's presidential debate. the former president's company losing nearly 35% in the month of june alone. first solar dropping nearly 9% today, its worst day since april of 2021.

finally, bitcoin falling 2%, closing in on the $60,000 level. cryptocurrency locking in its worst week since march 2nd. second worst month of the year. steve, thoughts on the crypto? >> yeah, so i get a little deep on this because it should have been negative. it should have been negative for the minors. it was for the minors because you reduce their payout, you cut it in half. if you reduce their payout, you'll have less mining, which means the supply of bitcoin is slower to get to their ultimate supply cap of bitcoin. so i think that's what people -- i told you it'd be deep. >> that's deep. >> really? doesn't the having just happen? that's what they do every day, 6.25, whatever the number is right now. there's enough miners to do that, no? >> yeah, there's enough miners to do that, but they'll be less of -- the theory is that there will be less of it. they have to become very efficient to keep up on the mining side. they're not getting the same

payback, so, in theory, the thesis should be that there's actually less mining and it's a lower go to get to that ultimate end. i hear what you're saying, but that's the thesis. there's also -- there was a lot of leverage put into bitcoin ahead of the etf. >> right. >> if you have the etf now, you have institutions that couldn't buy it, that can buy it, so that got a little extended. people got overlevered when you see the collapse or start to see the collapse in the bitcoin, the ultimate commodity, then you wind up seeing the -- >> halit sounds like a stephen g novel or out of the book of revelation, the rapture or something. >> right. coming up, is tesla's ste stealthy comeback in danger? analysts are betting on the numbers to disappoint. what to expect next. plus, payment players facing restaurant risk. what falling foot traffic means for some of the fintech, marquee

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welcome back to "fast." taco bell announcing its value meal offering, joining mcdonald's, burger king, and starbucks, as restaurants turn to promotions to bring customers back into stores. slower restaurant sales, a drop in foot traffic across the business, payment stocks like block and toast, are they also getting burned? let's ask darren pearler, senior equity analyst at wolf research. what do you say, darren? is the drop off, however slight it may or may not be in foot traffic going to affect these stocks, which i think three of the four we're looking at you have outperform ratings? >> yeah. thanks for having me. yeah, listen, i think there's really three or four main fintech payment stocks exposed to restaurants and coverage. obviously, toast, which many of you have probably seen in the

market, is one of the most prolific restaurant technologies, software and payments companies out there. here's a stock that's done well because it is gaining share. at the end of the day, you are starting to see foot traffic down 3% now. you're seeing new business formation at restaurants really go into negative year-over-year territory, though it is at a decent rate overall. it is declining year-over-year now. companies that are 100% exposed to restaurants, like toast, probably have more risk than not at this point after what has been a good year in the performance. >> do you have a favorite among the four we just showed, toast, square, let's see, i forget the other one. >> shift4, fisrerv. you're trading 14 times free cash. they're investing heavily in technology and sales. so we're able to view that, it's starting at a low enough point that even a slowdown in restaurants, they have an

opportunity to accelerate in the next 6 to 12 months in a bigger way than what is priced in. >> tim, you have a question. >> yeah, thank you. i'm curious what you think about paypal. this is a name i have wanted to believe in and, actually, we're going to talk acronyms in a little while. they seem to have more competition with the names that we talked about. obviously, they've had some of their own issues. they changed management. alex seems to be doing a solid job there. any thoughts there? this is not an expensive stock. this is a stock with market share. it's a stock that seems to not have any catalyst to get going. >> it is a great question. look, the end of the day, it is a brand that's well-known, good free cash, clean balance sheet. frankly, they have, as you probably know, i mean, 35 million merchants accept paypal. 200 million, roughly, active consumers using it. strong company brand wise. the question, however, is, and why we have a rating on it is because there's a lot of competition from even apple, right? apple pay is now showing up not

just on the phone but in browsers. the bottom line is, unless they can prove using the paypal or venmo button will grow at a good rate again, it'll be tough to breakout. they are making progress under alex, and we do think there is progress on a little bit of an acceleration at least. >> let me come back to restaurants for just a minute. an awful lot of the quick serve restaurants have come out with discount programs. we just referenced one. taco bell, the latest of them to do so. six months from now, what is the effect of those discount plans going to be? is it going to be a favorable outcome or less so? >> it's a great question. i think tohe overarching theme, and i'll bring this point up, the difference between inflation right now on restaurants versus stay at home food costs is dramatic. it used to be almost inflation on both, now we have inflation rates that are literally 500 basis points higher in

restaurant spending. you'll see qsr type locations or, frankly, people eating at home. it has an effect on kpae compan like restaurants and the sit at table type restaurants with a little more high-end and affluent users. keep that in mind. it is a fair point. transaction and foot traffic is down for all the reasons. you'll see a shift. >> i'll pull out my toast device when i feed my son dinner and make his pay that way. i think that's the new thing at the household. darren, thank you. courtney, a thought, question? >> yeah. when it comes to these, you are seeing the consumer is pulling back. restaurants is an easy thing people are able to pull back on. we keep talking about the consumer overall is in good shape, but they're having choosy about where they're spending. they are starting to feel that. these payment stocks are going to be a beneficiary of that. you're seeing this not just with restaurants but consumer

discretionary overall. it'll be a headwind at least in the shortterm here. >> the restaurant inflation is really breathtaking. >> absolutely. >> you go out to a place in new york city, you can't get a steak for under $75. >> i don't eat meat anymore because of this. we'll take a break. coming up, delivery danger. analysts warning upcoming numbers out of tesla could put a dent in the ev maker's recent rally. we'll look under the hood. there's not much under the hood at tesla, actually. they have a battery. there's really nothing there. they got a frunk is what they call it. more "fast money" in two minutes. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ you were made to find inner peace.

we were made to track flight prices to paradise.

welcome back to "fast m money." tesla closing out the third week of straight gains, making june the best month so far. tuesday's delivery numbers could throw a wrench in the rally. ev maker may report 450,000 vehicles in the second quarter, an improvement on the first quarter but down from a year ago. tim, you have thoughts on tesla? >> my thoughts are that it doesn't change for me that the company is still very expensive. i think the expectations have totally changed, both in terms of how the stock and the

catalyst and valuation, but also, obviously, on deliveries. i think we know what's going on. there are some elements of what's both going on right now in terms of a revamped model 3 and the dynamic that seems to be coming to a reality in terms of where you can start to price into the recurring revenue stream in terms of an overall valuation on the company. in fact, that seems to be what the street is starting to do. they're putting a multiple on the core business. they're putting some kind of a percentage basis on that high margin sfd business. stock around 45% off the lows. it's back up to the 200. i'm not sure this is the time to chase it into these numbers if that's what it feels like. i still think the company is expensive. we know what the risks are, and they don't seem to get any better here for not a cheap company. >> courtney? >> off the lows, it is still down 20% since the beginning of the year. this was part of the mag 7 that fell off this year. really, we're seeing slowing sales growth. earnings estimates are coming

down. if they don't come up with delivery delivers, that is going to be a problem for tesla. they're facing a lot of competition, not just in the u.s., but when you're seeing the chinese evs priced so much lower, it puts them at a disadvantage. i completely agree with tim. i think it is overly expensive now. given the headwinds, i don't think it is something i would chase at this point in time. >> thank you. coming up, we've got a midyear check in on our trader acronyms. we'll let you wager on who is in first place. that's a hint. and give the traders a chance to reflect on their picks. more "fast money" after this.

with the price of just about everything inflating these days, you may wonder why mint is deflating the price of mint unlimited from $30 a month to just $15 a month. well, it's easy. we know a great price on a great product is better than one of those things. right? does big wireless really believe that these things actually work? ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) this one will never see the light of day. all right.

welcome back, everybody, to "fast money." we are officially halfway through 2024. we thought it'd be a good time to check in on how our trading acronyms are doing so far. atop the current leaderboard, steve grasso. his wage acronym is up more than 30% year-to-date. mike is in second place, nearly 20%. karen finerman comes in next and then guy adami. steve, let's start with your wage acronym. every component up double digits, but the big winner is the grace scale ethereum trust, surging more than 60%.

what about your others? >> yeah, and it's not even on the highs, actually. it's pushed back. last year was up 250%. i think it is going to be -- i think it is going to be a winner going into the back half of the year. wrk, westrock, they had a merger. they're a paper company. ip had a buyout that was terminated, so i think you're probably going to see a little more of a bullish slant and less rock going forward. these are possibly a good entry point there. google, i thought this was going to be their year for a.i. it turns out that it is. and amgen, i thought they were going to be competitive in the weight loss space. they're not as competitive as i thought they'd be, so i wouldn't be a buyer there. the other three, i'd be a buyer. >> the other three you're happy with. karen, you're in third with the helm acronym. meta is the golden goose. >> it is. my trade should have beentaking

out louis vuitton, having china troubles, broader luxury troubles. the chinese traveler not traveling as much. >> you could change it. >> if i needed a k. i would replace it with cifi gr -- with citi group. but meta has been good, liked it a while. it's my biggest position, and i'm sticking with it. we'll see. >> happeny with the others. >> i like the xlv, health care and energy. xl something. i get pushback that i made it helm, energy and, ah, what was the -- oh, energy and health. it should have been xx. >> you had a biden moment. [ laughter ] >> court, you're in the middle of the pack with your acronym. up 7% for the year. what do you make of the move so far? >> fwactually, i'm with you. my e of energy was xle, but we

have to do what we have to do with the acronyms. >> you didn't get a lot of pushback on your acronym. >> melissa would be saying it is more like scrabble. i had to make it work. but i loikike what we have here. energy has been a good performer, beneficiary of artificial intelligence and the economy. you'll continue to see that as we go forward here. the one that's been underperforming in my acronym is small cap. the sc was one that was small cap. it's a stretch. really, we thought we were going to see this rotation especially as interest rates came down this year. it keeps getting pushed out further and further. that's been dragging this down. still overall doing well, but i think you're likely going to continue to see that moving forward. long run, i want to be in it. that's been kind of the one that's been down. >> tim, sorry to tell ya, go back to the gym. your acronym, blicep, second to last place, even without lyft. you'd still be down about 4%. estee estee lauder being the drag.

still bullish on the name here? >> yeah, it's killing me. bit of irony, playing the game right and actually playing the game wrong all at the same time. everyone else knows what i'm talking about. i think you have a case here where estee lauder has got the same problems they've had for the last two years. i still think valuation isn't cheap enough. i think you can own it here, for sure. i'm not changing the tune. it's had a tougher run. alibaba, you know, you had a 40% move. china has been very choppy. we pulled back. i think you're in this for the long run. i is idvo. i'm in on the fund. i still believe in international and owning blue chip global companies. that's what we do in that etf. chevron, look, i love energy here. i still think the pullback that we've had recently across the energy space is not commensurate with the cash flow generation. obviously, the price of oil that be largely very stable. if anything, it's rallied in the face of a higher dollar. there's a lot to do in the acronym game, and i think it's still relatively early in the

season. not ready to, you know, anoint any victories yet, but i do think it's been a challenging year for anything that's been exposed to discretionary. cheap value stocks have gotten cheaper. >> tim, thank you very much. when we come back, we'll give you our final trades. umm... first word. - tonsillitis! - nostril! uh-uh... bill! uh-huh... - hip-hop! - limping! mmhmm! medical bills! uh-huh! - pancakes! - cash! who pays you cash when you have medical bills? grrr! no idea. [tapping] gap! the gap left by health insurance? who pays cash to help close that gap? aflac! oh, aflac! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover at aflac.com pictionary?!

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at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real. can new a.i. by salesforce send the stock toward the clouds? i have the ceo. then a healthy buy at the levels. i'm checking in if your competitor has a setback. don't miss my stock playbook. next on cnbc. time for the fastest 45 seconds in finance. let's go around the horn. tim? >> tyler, thank you for joining us. the b in blicep, alibaba, 40% of the market cap in cash. i think it'll work. >> karen, your call? >> yes. i do like the energy trade. the xle, though it's had a nice run late, there's room to go. >> all right. court, what do you say? >> doubling down on the energy

trade. i chose xom, exxon. make sure you have the energy space right now. it'll couldnntinue to do well. >> steve, bring us home. >> nike. i did it and will probably do it again next week if it gives me another opportunity. >> just do it. >> amazing. >> thank you, tyler, for babysitting. >> appreciate it. see you my mission is simple, to make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investors. i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. i'm trying to make more money. it is my job to teach you, so call me. the monotony of greatness. that is what i think about scrutining