pro. ♪ welcome to "street signs." we're live from paris and london as the global elections heat up. here are your headlines. france's far right wins the first round of the snap parliamentary elections securing 34% of the vote. but under certainty remains if the marine le pen majority can secure in the second round. >> translator: democracy has spoken and the people have put

us in the lead and wiped out the macron bloc. and banking defense and construction names leading the charge as investors digest the parliamentary elections. and looking to kickoff the second half on the front foot after the nasdaq closes up nearly 20% while friday's pce print has investors hoping the fed has nearly won its fight against inflation. the uk enters the final stretch of campaigning ahead of thursday's election. what the opposition labour party looking to a landslide majority and looking to end the british rule. >> the hope has been kicked out. they need to be convinced that change is possible.

most of us, to be convinced to vote for it. welcome to "street signs," everyone. we are paying close attention to what is happening in france where marine le pen's party has emerged as the leading party in the parliamentary election taking 34% of the exit polls. it marks a significant setback for emmanuel macron's party which collected one fifth of the vote putting it in third place behind the popular vote. this sets the stage for the intense negotiations ahead of sunday's second-round runoff. this puts this far right closer to position with the seats of 8

to grow to 200. experts warn that seat projections after the first round can be inaccurate especially given the higher voter turnout and horse trading to come. i want to take you to the activity in the equity space. at this stage, we have the stoxx 600 trading higher by .70%. we had seen the benchmark ending down by .20%. it is also worth keeping indepin mind what we saw at the end of the trading day on friday, it was the end of the trading week and month as well as the first half as well. it is dynamic when you look at the boards. let me take you to the french banks in the context of the election in france. this has been -- actually, the

main boards. the reason why i wanted to take you to the boards, in fact, is because of the different narrative i was telling you earlier. when you think about the ftse 100, this is the only main board in europe that ended the quarter up by 2.66%. when you think about all of the other major boards, the cac 40, the german board, all ended the quarter down. a different narrative for the ftse 100 with all of it had to deal with the dealmaking with the british. the main board is up by 2%. we are seeing some positive sentiment here off the back of the first round of the french elections. let me take you to some of the moves within the french space. looking at the french banks, we know this has been a sector that had suffered significantly in

the wake of the announcement from the french president macron when he called for a snap parcel ment ri election. i would highlight it up 4.6%. it is important in the context of the french election. one of the open questions we have at this stage is if this momentum is going to continue. investors are feeling the result is not as bad as some of them feared, but however, we are heading to the second round of this vote and there is a key question mark about whether france will be governable in the future? will this hung parliament lead to any policy making in france? that could actually bring concerns about some of the names. in terms of the large caps, this is how we are trading at this stage. for instance, when it comes to some of the biggest names in the

energy space, we have energy up 2.2%. we are seeing that continued momentum also in some parts of the energy space. when it comes to some of the consumer names, kering in the luxury space, we have seen a bit of a volatile time really. a lot of pressure there. we are seeing them getting a little bit of momentum in recent times. when it comes to potentially some of the impact from the election, when it comes to kering, it is up. lvmh is up 1%. hermes is trading higher b by .80%. when it comes to the bond market, this is important to monitor in the wake of the french election. we know there is also the speech from christine lagarde happening later on today. there are a couple of moves when it comes to the bond market.

thinking about the french election, we have the yield currently at 3.31% for the ten-year french paper. also worth keeping in mind what we have seen between the german bund and french paper is a narrowing of the spread suggesting that investors are putting aside some of the fear and some of the concerns they had going into this election. let's see for how long that will continue. when it comes to the currency space, this is how we are trading. the euro is trading higher against the u.s. dollar at 1.07. it is trading at a two-week high exactly because some investors are looking at the outcome of the french election and feeling okay. this is not as bad as we feared. again, let's see how this one unfolds because we have two days of negotiations among the parties and then, of course, the second round will tell us how

the next assembly in france is going to look like. now, i'm pleased to say charlotte is joining us live from paris. charlotte has been following the developments from the first round and the second round. charlotte, at this stage, how are we looking at this hung parliament -- likely hung parliament -- and how will this impact france legislating going forward? >> reporter: well, silvia, i was standing here just three weeks ago after president macron called a snap election after the bruising defeat his party suffered and the far-right was seeing a huge momentum with the voters. did this gamble payoff? yes and no. president macron's party losing momentum and in third position with 20% of the vote. it shows he would have 70 to 100

seats from 240 previously. seve certainly, a big hit for president macron going forward with legacy. did he keep the far-right out of power? we still have to wait and see. still a historic result for the far-right. 34% of the vote there. that is the message we heard from marine le pen saying this was the end of macron-ism and a new phase. >> translator: the french people have placed the allies in the lead and wiped out the macronist bloc. in the vote, the french people demonstrated to turn the page after seven years of power. we will thank the voters and welcome this result. this next step is a mark of confidence which honors us.

>> reporter: while this was a strong showing for the far-right, they could be short of the absolute majority. the top of the bracket shows around 270 seats anway from 289 which absolute majority requires. we have to wait and see what happens next. what is interesting in the result, you have a record number which is a three-way runoff into round two with the far-right candidate and usually a left-wing candidate and macron's party candidate. the negotiations happening now is whether parties will drop out their candidate when they are third in the runoff to give their votes to the second candidate. that is the calculation that is happening now. what we heard from the left-wing he leader is that he was calling for all people to vote for whatever candidate is facing the

far-right. >> translator: in oaccordance with our plrns, no way we will come out on top. in all circumstances, whenever and whatever the case, our instructions are simple, direct and clear. not one more vote. not one more seat for the assembly national. >> reporter: when it comes to other parties, the center-right party came in at 10%. just telling them to vote for whoever they wanted. when it comes to president macron's party, there are been critical without the clear voting instructions. they have been clear to vote for candidates and not voting for left-wing candidates.

we heard from bruno lemarie. we have to wait and see what the dynamic is over the next couple days. the final list of candidates will be presented tomorrow evening and see how it plays out in the second round of the election. at the moment, it looks like the most likely scenario is the hung parliament with three very different blocs in parliament. it looks like governing france could be extremely complicated going forward. >> stay with us for the next conversation. the former director is joining us with more. first and foremost, looking at the outcome of the first round, it does suggest what we are going to see is a hung parliament. markets are looking at this and suggesting that the outcome is not as bad as we feared because we don't have an absolute majority of the far right. ultimately, though, how

complicated is it going to be to see france pass legislation for the next couple of years? >> it is a very complicated situation and things may change in the coming days it is true, the national rally is not going to have a majority. it is still a clear possibility when you see the score. it depends on the horse trading that is going on right now between the two other blocss wih the issue of how to deal with the far left of one of the blocs. if we have a hung parliament, it is true that macron will remain in power. of course, he will have a more diminished presidential power. france will not be able to do any reforms for at least a year. we cannot have an election before june of 2025. it means perhaps this will be

france will not diffiverse comp completely, but a caretaker government for a while without any sense of new reforms with the suspension of reform on unemployment. it's true that it is not as worse as could be, frankly speaking, with the government that would try to change the sides where france is heading. a hung parliament cannot last too long. >> right. i would like to ask you ul ultimately and i know this is still early days with the negotiations and second round. ultimately, from this first result, can we suggest whether president macron's gamble has actually paid off? >> what he lost is a lot of his own power because he has a

parliament, he has diminished leadership. it has waned. when you lose two elections in a row, now the first round of this election, it would be very difficult for him to gain his new leadership back. especially when you are outgoing president because we know he cannot run again. i think in a competition where you have to support your opponents in government and you are outgoing and you have lost and your party is in shambles, i think that will be difficult for france. i'm sure he will be, in any case, he will not step down, he will be the guarantor. it will be a bit puzzling and confusing because we have a

french government who had the nominations. it could be france with two voices. that weakens your position, of course. >> confusing. >> reporter: i was going to ask you about this because whatever happens in the national assembly, president macron will be president and leading against the foreign policy against france. what does this electoral result mean for him weakening with the influence in brussels under nationally at the time where challenges are mounting on every front. does this diminish his power abroad? >> i think it does. first, i think his partners have not completely still understood what he tried to do. he may not be as trustworthy as they think. it is a surprise move. germans elsewhere, thinking about germany because it is

france's close of the partner and really afraid of what's going to happen. when you are an outgoing president and when you don't have the competition, of course, he remains president. he will attend the nato summit and the g7 summit, but he doesn't hold administration. he has a lot of appointments of ambassadors that will have to be done with another competition. even when you are president, the prime minister or minister of foreign affairs have their signature. it would be a very rough and tough competition if that goes on. >> rough and tough competition. let's see what will happen -- >> that's the scenario. that's not the only possible scenario. >> one to keep in mind. thank you so much for your time.

the associate fellow at the chatham house. we will speak to charlotte later on this morning. for the full coverage of the france parliamentary election and all the horse trading in between, head online to cnbc.com. later this hour, we will hear from the economist thomas piketty. coming up on the show, we will also be looking at the tech giants. they drove gains across the first half, but two of wall street's biggest indexes diffic diverged in the second quartquarter. we'll have more coming up next.

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welcome back to "street signs." i want take a quick check on the u.s. futures as we approach the open stateside. this suggests a higher start to the trading session on wall street. it is meant to be a quiet day with economic activity stateside, but when you think of the expectations for this week, it is worth keeping in mind july

4th will see wall street closed and fewer volumes. nonetheless, it has been an interesting first half of the year when you think about the performance, particularly stateside. you have it on the screen at this stage. let's look at some of the comparisons, really, because when it comes to the nasdaq, the benchmark on the tech is expected. it has finished the first half significantly higher when you compare the performance with the dow. the dow end -- on the screen, we have the quarter figures. end of quarter figures for the dow is 1.83. this is quite significant because we have been talking about the strong performance of the big tech and this is very clear when you think about these two benchmarks and when you think about these two indices.

when you think about the individual stock performance, look at nvidia. it is up 150% in the first half of this year. it is significant. of course, for some time, it was actually the most valuable company in the world. it is, of course, still trying to get to that target with apple and microsoft, but all in all, what we are seeing is significant interest on the a.i. story because when you think about how tesla has performed, on the other hand, it is down 20% over the same period. now, i would like to discuss what's been happening on the tech front in more detail with my next guest. he is raj at genesis associates. good morning. thank you for being with us in the studio. >> good morning. >> first, i would like to get your thoughts on these numbers. 150% for nvidia in the first half. it is huge. it is significant. what do you think is likely to

happen for the second half of 2024? >> well, i guess the reason why nvidia went up so much is the market news over the last quarter that made it revalue the value of the company and if you look at the valuation of the company, the forward pe is just over 40 times which is actually the average that's it's been over the last five years. the market is struggling to keep up with the earnings upgrades coming through for nvidia. there are risks to the story, but actually, if they continue to deliver the way they have been, the forward returns could look really attractive over the next year or two still. >> let's argue this and what would lead to your position to sell is nvidia? >> that is a great way to think of it and another way to phrase that question would be why after

all this good news, the market is putting it on average over the next five years? i think the market is worrying about two things. one is supply. could other companies come through with breakthroughs and match the whole nvidia gpus to do those things? the other is on the demand. the returns. the big data centers and hyperscalers are spending billions on the gpu crips. where are the returns? i think what happened in the first half of the year and last quarter in particular, is one of those questions was revolved favorably for nvidia. we knew they were moving from the h-1 chip which gave birth to the regulation and the blackwell chip which uses less power. and the year after, next year, they will introduce the vera

chip which is another step up in competing power and step down in power consumption. i think that made people think actually they are pulling away from the competition on supply. there's still questions about demand. there are still questions about where's the profitability of the people spending all this money and how will they keep doing that and how will that ex accelerate in the years to come? it always boils down to supply and demand in economics. >> how does that compare with apple and macqicrosoft? these are the biggest companies in the world. how will nvidia surpass apple and microsoft sustainably? >> that is an open question. i think most would agree that microsoft is an early adopter of a.i. copilot building in every day

products we use and then the openai and they are really embracing generative a.i. in some ways, there is proof of a real-world use case. they have to prove those are prof profitable. with apple, most people thought they were not in the game and not at the races. what they announced in the second quarter was fascinating. they will integrate the openai and chatgpt into the systems. >> the difference with apple, if i may interrupt, it is not new a.i. can it actually be part of this race? >> that's the essence of what's so interesting of the apple decision. the decision it made was they are not using their own generative a.i. model. they are working with openai, but still talking to google or alphabet about their large language model as well.

so, there is a possibility in the quarters to come that they could playoff openai versus alphabet versus google and maybe the profitability is actually in providing the apple consumers or apple customers, that ecosystem, with a service. the question really isn't who has the best model or who is furthest ahead now, the question is who can make the most money out of it. if apple can charge more for offering you and me a siri system and understanding what we are asking it to do, frankly, i have never been able to get mine to do, that might be the big kicker for apple. >> right. >> that's still to be determined in the coming quarters. >> thank you for sharing your thoughts with us. that was raj at jennison so associates. i want to look at the french bond market. we are keeping a fresh eye in

the wake of the parliamentary election. the ten-year government bond yield hitting highest level since november of 2023 at 3.341%. of course, it is also worth keeping in mind what we have seen this morning is a narrowing of the spread between the french ten-year and the german bund. coming up on the show, we will discuss this in detail and head back out to paris and hear from the economist and author thomas piketty. that is coming up after this break.

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welcome to "street signs." we're live from paris and london as full election coverage heats up. here are your headlines. france's far-right wins the first round of the snap parliamentary elections securing 34% of the vote, but uncertainty remains over whether marine le pen can secure full majority in

the second round. >> translator: the people have put us in the lead. french equities drive the stoxx 600 higher with the banking, defense and construction names leading charge as investors digest the parliamentary elections. u.s. markets look to kickoff the second half on the front foot after the nasdaq closes the first half up nearly 20% while friday's pce print has investors hoping the fed has nearly won its fight against inflation. and we are in the final stretch of the uk elections set for this thursday as the opposition labour party look to secure a landslide victory and end 14 years of conservative rule. >> british people want change, but the hope has almost been kicked out. they need to be convinced that

change is possible. most of all, they need to be convinced to vote for it. well, let's get a check of the european markets. a lot going on today and, of course, this week we are dig digesting the results of the parliamentary elections in france that is driving the french names higher this morning. the cac 40 is up 1.7%. keep in mind, this is a relatively positive rebound. we had seen the cac 40 ending the month down 6.4%. the initial reaction of the snap parliamentary election was quite negative, but what we are seeing today is a reversal of the rhetoric in the sense of the investors looking at the outcome and thinking it is not as bad as

they originally thought. still a lot of negotiations taking place as we speak and naturally the second and final round due on sunday. we are also seeing positive moves over in spain. up by 1%. italy higher by 1.6%. when it comes to the fx markets, this is how we are trading so far. naturally, we're keeping a close eye on the euro-dollar trade. trading at 1.07 handle. of course, this is also morning in the context in the outcome of the french election. we are seeing the euro basically trading at a two-week high versus the u.s. dollar in that context. again, let's see what is going to happen. we will have potential comments from central bankers in europe and the ecb conference. when it comes to the sterling-dollar when it comes to the uk election this week, it is

currently higher, the sterling is higher by .30%. in terms of the european yields, this is the picture at this stage. we were telling you earlier we had the ten-year french paper higher with the spread of the ten-year and the german bund. it is narrowing this morning. we have the ten-year french paper at 3.32%. as i said, any sort of commentary from central bankers this week could have implications on this part of the market. now charlotte joins us with more. charlotte, outline for us what we can expect throughout the week now the negotiations are taking place as we approach the second round on sunday. >> reporter: this week will be extremely crucial, silvia, because it was a historic win for the far right in the election. the question is can they have

absolute majority in the second round? things look quite difficult for marine le pen's party. 34% of the vote. in terms of seat projection, the top of the bracket would be 270 seats. all at stake this week with the negotiations and the parties in the election and whether they want to stand down their candidate in the three-way runoff that would happen with 300 constituenconstituencies. they are considering whether to drop their candidate to make a bloc to the far right. i have a special guest here to unpick this conversation with us. it is the associate chair of the school of economics. thank you for joining us this

morning. you are one of the economists supporting the left-wing bloc. first, can i have your take on the results that we saw this weekend and what that could mean going into the second round next weekend? >> you know, i think a lot will depend on the centrist and macron will behave. i think many of them might realize that the far-left is better for the country than voting or staying home. it depends on what they will decide. i'm concerned with the current government which tried to demonize the left in recent weeks and recent days and recent months. overall, macron would never have been elected without the left in favor of macron in 2022 or 2017. he would not be president.

he never really tried to do something together with the people who made him president. he wanted to go out on his own. we have the three blocs in france and the centrist bloc which is a very right with the highest curve and paris and very fancy place of the country. they could remain in power by just catering for these groups on the basis of the division of the lower-income voters. those in small cities and everyone voting and those voting in large cities for the left. you know, you cannot dpof earn the country like this with such a narrow electoral base for very

long. this is a big lesson for this election which also is an issue for all countries. putting the center right and center left together and the winners of the globalization together and govern the country against the left or right, that is something that cannot work for very long. we have to return to a clearer picture like a union of the right or union of the left, including center left. >> reporter: you were one of the voices presenting the economy program for the party. it was an ambitious program. we saw the market move the past couple of weeks worried about what it could mean for public finances. whether you propose toincrease salaries for civil service or put price caps, et cetera, can

france really afford this kind of political program given the state of the public finances and the deficit? >> okay, left was to try to mobilize more public resources through higher taxes and wealthy individuals in order to invest more in the education and research, public infrastructure, public transportation. not only can france afford that, but this is the only way to have a prosperous economy in the long run. it is always been that. people with higher income and wealth always believe it is better to keep taxes low for them. in the long run, what makes us in france and western europe very competitive economies is this investment in education

first. today, the gdp of our work in france is over 60 euro per hour. one of the highest in the world. one century ago, it was less than 3 euro. how did we get from a productivity from 3 to 60 and how do we get to 100? this is education, education, education and research. if you don't do it with resources -- look at the u.s. now spending close to 20% times of gdp with a lot of private money. is it more efficient? no. it is a complete disaster. the question is can we afford it? i think we can afford to be more efficient. in the area of education, public investment is simply working

better. >> thomas, it is silvia joining the conversation. i would like to know if france is prepared for higher taxation? naturally, investments in health and education is very important, but when we saw the 75% super tax, that didn't really work. when you think about the next year policy making in france, is the country ready for higher taxes? >> is the country ready for higher private -- again, the choice is not are we going to invest less in education? we are going to spend more on education in the future. the only question is how do you pay for it. he did a lot of stupid things. the 75% tax did not happen. voted for it or against it. it was repealed three months later. what is important when you think

about the west tax. a lot of discussion, including the g20 about taxing billionaires in the world. i think it is important to walk on two legs. you need international cooperation and tax on billionaires, for sure. individual countries also need to do their own part of the work. one way, i think it should be done in the case of the taxes is if you made your wealth by using the public infrastructure of the country, say, france, by using the public transport or the education system -- you can never become rich on your own without using these collective resources, legal system, everything is central to any creation. if you made your wealth for 40 years in france using the infrastructure and you decide to

move to trinidad, you should pay tax in proportion to the number of years you have spent. the u.s. do that through u.s. citizenship. as long as you keep citizenship, you should pay the same tax. that is one possibility. a better way to do it, more modern way to do it is to do it with the number of years you have spent say in your adult life in the different countries. this is just common sense because you need this public infrastructure to accumulate wealth and create wealth of any kind. >> right. thomas, i'm afraid we have to leave it there. perhaps we can address it at a later day. that was thomas piketty at the paris school of economics. the bank of international

settlements is calling off for a interest rates moving too soon. the umbrella body for central banks also warned that high levels of the government debt could threaten international markets with the elections around the world this year. speaking of the central banks, they will gather for the ecb forum and annette will be on the ground with the latest tomorrow. from france to the uk, y arabile is covering another big story for us. >> silvia, we are three days away of what could be a massive political shift in polls in uk political history. we'll unpack the ramifications and preview it all for you next. i'm andrea, and this is why i

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vote that is hoping polls prove accurate and could see one of the largest swings in british history with the opposition party at the ballot box for the first time since 2005. meanwhile, rishi sunak has been defending his time in power. >> of course, i understand the last few years have been difficult for everyone. we had a once in a century pandemic and a war in ukraine that drove up everyone's bills. it has been difficult for everybody. we have had progress in tackling these things. energy bills set to fall again just next week and we are starting to cut people's taxes for financial security. yes, it has been difficult, but we are on the right track with the prospect of more tax cuts to come to give people financial security. that's the choice. building on the progress we made. >> our arabile has started our

coverage ahead of the vote on thursday. arabile, we heard from the prime minister this weekend suggesting that the last couple of years have not been easy, but we are in a better position now. to what extent is that likely to help a little bit or slightly, the conservatives at the polls? >> reporter: it certainly is a message he would want to help in these polls. i think that is the key question mark. will those voting actually believe the story that rishi sunak has put forward here? th are there any other options? it has been 40 days since he called the election. in that time, he had to give a clear message here. we are still the party that needs to govern this country because we have made things better. he pointed to growth and inflation and unemployment remaining a key part of the con

the st stiuency. all of those issues have come together in the boiling point that he says still has a firm plan and claiming labour doesn't have a plan. while he defended his 14-year history for the conservative party in power, this, however, is what the labour party believes is actually what has happened over the last 14 years or so. i was speaking to john ashford for the labour party. >> the labour leader has changed the party. he has taken big decisions and transformed the labour party from where it was five years ago and just as he has changed the labour party, he is changing the country. it is true after 14 years of failure of the conservatives that people are yearning for change. we have not yet had the election

and the word is if you want change, vote labour this week. >> they said they changed the economy for the last 14 years and even tried to make it as better as they possibly could. would the same kind of change or dramatic changes be needed if labour were to get into power and how can you reassure the uk citizens it would get better? >> the conservative party in power for 14 years have failed the economy. they have given us economic chaos. that is why people's living standards have been squeezed and why you are paying more in tax and public services are broken. what we need is a new approach to grow the economy and create good, well paying jobs and fix the problems in the public services. that is what labour is offering.

>> reporter: there is the contrast, silvia. the conservative party believes interest has done well over the last 14 years. the labour party firmly believes there has been chaos. remember, there have been a number of prime ministers in the last couple of years then. five conservative party prime ministers had been in place since 2010. so, is that going to ultimately hit them when it gets to the polls? that is the key question mark. we will be live with a lot of detail and campaign news as well and just the winners across the week as we head into the election. a key and pivotal one for the uk economy. silvia. >> not long until we see uk voters heading to the polls. do not miss our special coverage on friday from westminster as we breakdown what the results mean for markets. speaking of markets, let's get a check of the european

boards at this stage. we are seeing the french market up 1.5% in the wake of the outcome of the first round of the parliamentary election with investors looking at the outcome and suggesting that because the far-right might not get absolute majority that some feared, that is bringing some positive momentum to some parts of the market. in the uk, the ftse 100 is up .40%. in germany, the main market up .40% as well. now, when it comes to the french banks, this has been the sector that suffered the most in the wake of the announcement of the snap election. however, at this stage, the sector is moving higher. in particular, we have soc gen up 4.5%. credit agricole up 3% at this stage. when it comes to the european yields, significant moves when it comes to the french paper. we have the yield on the

ten-year french paper at 3.32%. early in the session, we had seen it hitting its highest level, the bond yield, highest level since november of 2023. now, when it comes to the u.s. futures, we are approaching the start to the trading session on wall street. it could be a mixed start stateside. also worth keeping in mind, we have wall street closed on thursday. it's going to be a very important week on the political front. now, that is it for today's show. i'm silvia amaro. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next.

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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. i'm frank holland and here is your "five@5." kicking off a new month and new quarter with the questions surrounding the strength of the rally ahead of the key economic report this week. if the first half of the year was all about the fed, attention appears to be shifting to the 2024 election and reaction to the debate. we'll take a closer look. also breaking this morning, boeing seals a deal with the supplier and spirit aerosystems and the right takes the lead in the snap electio