"squawk box" begins right now. good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. andrew, nice to have you back in studio. >> nice to see you all in studio. >> good to have you back. >> it's been a crazy week. >> 10:00 a.m. >> what? >> scotus. >> what? the scuttlebutt since the debate. >> i don't know what to think. i don't know what they decided. we have alex thompson on who --

>> he wrote a big story. >> roger altman will talk about it. >> heidi heitkamp. depending on who you speak to, you know, they are not all on the same page. everybody is trying to deal with a very difficult decision. who knows? >> the decision will be made by one or two people. let's look at where things stand with the futures. this is the first day of july, first trading day of the month. the dow futures are indicated up by 36 points. s&p futures up slightly. the nasdaq off close to five points. since we are now halfway through the year, we might as well take a look where we are for the year to date. the a.i. boom powering the s&p 500. the nasdaq is up 18%. just over 18%. the dow would be the laggard of the group up only 3%.

if you look where things stand overall, the sa&p and nasra nas closing at the all-time highs on friday. the two-year is at 4.75%. the french stock market gaining ground just this morning. the index rising more than 2% at one point in early trading after the far-right national rally party won in the first round and raising expectations of a hung parliament. this puts marine le pen's party to win the national assembly. president macron's party came in third. if the national party wins majority in assembly, macron would have to share power with the far-right party and macron

said he won't resign. there is a big question of how well this entire situation could get managed and if he made a mistake, effectively, by pushing for the snap election -- >> yes. >> -- an ass quickly as he did. his team thought if you did it now, you would 100% lose in september or october just because of the way things were directionally going for him. >> he can hold on to power. it washes out other power. it clips his wings. >> no way to run a country. power sharing. when we look at it, don't we think as crazy as things are here -- >> we have power sharing. >> nothing like that. the far left that's share power with the far right. >> i don't know how great it is to have a two-party system at this point. >> anything they do there is all

under the eu, anyway. they don't have power anyway. it's a mess. it's a hodgepodge. you see how effective it is. >> by the way, we were talking about it for the broadcast. we are headed to the olympics. the entire world is hfocused on france. is this a good situation or a bad situation? this is going to be an overhang -- all of the conversations we will have will have something to do with this. >> you can tie it all together all over the globe with the progressive politics with canada and the united states and france. >> focus on the sport and the human achievement of trying to do things that have never been done before. >> yes. >> can't we just put this aside? >> that's the plan. that's what sports is supposed to do. >> there is a gymnast from

ordell, new jersey who just qualified for the team last night. very excited about that. i'm there every day. >> can you, right now, make a pledge that we're just going to come together on the achievements of humans and to go that extra inch. >> you promise me when jill biden is in the audience over there -- >> who? >> exactly. >> who? jill or joe? >> jill. jill biden. >> i don't want to talk about that today. i have no idea. >> right. you don't. go for it. >> do you know how you stand on this? >> i think i do. >> you want a different person? >> let's go. let's go to the fallout. president biden's campaign spending the weekend in damage control.

nbc news roeports that the president back away from stepping down. he has no plans to do so. also the source telling nbc that the trip to camp david it was a planned trip and he was told by his grand kids to stay in the race. i will have more of the fundraising and the debate more in the hour. i thought carvell said it. something that can't continue, doesn't. >> or won't. quoting an economist. >> i don't know if that is true or not. i don't know. >> the other thing is it is very possible you take this position publicly and sort out what you are going to do. not just what are yoyou are goi

do -- i think ultimately, if he steps away, they have to pre-wire who will be the candidate. it might turn into an open warfare or open convention. i think the effort will be he will not want to step away unless he pre-wired all of the other pieces. >> you are probably uncomfortable. the democrats pointed themselves in the corner. it is the op-ed. the dei pick of kamala harris because he said i'm going to pick a woman no matter what. think if there was a really great vp that everyone could get behind. it is not. it makes it you can't pass her over or pick her. it is the worst catch-22 mess i've ever seen. >> if neither of them are on the ticket, apparently, i think campaign finance rules would say

you would not automatically get the hundreds of millions of dollars of the democratic party. >> people are pushing gretchen whitmer at this point. >> the thing they talked about friday night and i still don't know and all of the people who said i'm not happy with trump. i didn't love -- my question is i'm not convinced fundamentally that if you put some other person in this role that all of a sudden everybody flips over there. you think they do? >> some. >> some? >> some. >> like a lot? >> it depends the person. >> i was badgering you last week to take the pledge. ackman says everybody should rally around donald trump. >> his supposition is he should not be there. the question is then was this all just an excuse? you see what i'm saying? i'm not sure you will switch

your positions. i don't think -- >> i haven't sorted out my positions yet. >> you haven't? >> no. >> i thought everyone -- >> when i walk in that booth and the curtain comes around me, that's when i know. >> i think brian sullivan put a post on xand said this is an exceptional country. >> we could be france. >> how you wind up with a two-party system and this is how things get frozen in place. >> i hate to be cynical. sometimes you don't get the leader you want, but the leader you deserve. let's talk about the business world today. boeing buying back spirit aerosystems. the company taking back the troubled fuselage maker. bo boeing executives believe taking

control of spirit's operations will improve safety and quality. phil lebeau will have more details coming up later in the show. you you see spirit aerosystems are up this morning and boeing is down. blackrock acquiring prequin in a multibillion dollar deal. leslie picker joins us with more. >> reporter: blackrockefe acquig prequin for $3.2 billion in cash. it informs how they raise capital and source deals and understand performance. for blackrock, the impetus is twofold. it delves it further in the private market. blackrock had infrastructure partners for $12.5 billion and

last month, blackrock acquired a private equity capital. this is seen as a software portfolio management. long-term, blackrock will use the deal to build private market tools. reports of a competitive process and blackrock is paying more than 13 times prequin's revenue of $240 million. the data provider has grown 20% per year over the last three years according to the release. an investor call is slated for 8:30 a.m. the executives will discuss the deal and take questions. guys. >> how integrated does this get brought into blackrock or does it get sold? it is a subscription service. >> it's a good question, andrew. what they said so far in the

release is basically there will be a prequin operating independently. they want to integrate it into the aladdin system as well and helps them build out the broader private market ecosystem they are hoping to develop. they see private markets and a lot of the industry sees the private market as the fastest growing area. they see the $40 trillion target for the entire private market ecosystem by 2030. this is a fast-growth area and they want exposure here. acquiring managers and data providers is a key strategy. >> thank you, leslie. we'll keep our eyes on it. coming up, the a.i. boom gaves the s&p and nasdaq a boo. we'll talk about that.

and ahead, starting the second half on a positive note. up 40% year to date. it was above earlier. "squawk box" coming right back. hello. i'm ethereum. and i'm big finance. you look really tired. just calling it a day. but it's 4 p.m. yeah, and i've been working nonstop since 9:30 this morning, so. 9:30. you don't say? yep. you'd want a little shut-eye too if you'd been moving billions around the world. well, actually, i do. you know, stablecoins, nfts, loans.

people can access me 24/7. what? but look, everyone's different. you should get your rest. you'll get after it tomorrow. tomorrow's saturday. [ethereum] monday. you'll get after it again on monday. [inner monologue] i needed some help. good thing i knew someone... ♪♪ or... some-thing. [a.i. copilot] glad you called, j. [a.i. copilot] it's time for an upgrade. awesome. ♪♪ [inner monologue] i knew what i had to do. because they never stop.

no time to waste. this isn't sci-fi. this is precision ai. ♪♪ want to save on some of the biggest names in streaming on the network made for streaming? x marks the spot. now you can add the new xfinity streamsaver™ that includes netflix, peacock, and apple tv+. that's xfinity streamsaver™ for just $15 a month. all your favorites. all in one place. only from xfinity.

for more watching and less spending... x marks the spot. do it all on the network made for streaming, and bring on the good stuff. welcome back to "squawk box." investors gearing up for the second half of the year.

joining us with the answers is stephanie link at hightower and cnbc contributor. why don't we go there first? >> good morning. >> good morning, good morning. a.i. will it really power us higher or will it turn on us? what's going to happen? >> i don't know if they will turn on us, andrew. maybe they pause for a bit. they had a heck of a run. i don't think it's over by any means. i think you're in the second or third inning in terms of a.i. look at the weekend. amazon will spend billions on data centers. when you have these companies spending money, it is a good space in general. the stocks have had a nice move. i do think we are going to see good earnings across the spectrum in the market. other sectors, financials can play catch up. energy can play catch up.

pockets of industrials recently. especially those tied to grid and power and that sort of thing. they have pulled back. i think you are getting a good look. overall, it is good because the economy is running at 2% to 2.5%, inflation is coming down and perhaps, we get a friendly fed later this year. all that bodes well for a.i. and other parts of the market. >> what is your nvidia call at this point in the ball game? >> oh, well, i don't own nvidia. i missed it. i do think there are other ways to play it. i own broadcomm. they will have $10 billion of a.i. stuff in the next year or year and a half. that was less than $2 billion less than two years ago. they will benefit. i think the memory guys will do well. applied materials and kla and lam research. you need six times the data for

a.i. >> what do you think of the stra stragglers? the qualcomm and amd all of which would make an argument to you that they are major players in this as this stuff goes to the edge and the models get smaller. do you buy that? >> yeah, but i think -- i think this entire trend will help a lot of companies, but the problem is you have to execute, andrew. i'm not sure that intel, over the last several years, i'm pretty sure they have not executed. you actually need to not only the trends in your favor, tailwinds from a.i. and the spend and that sort of thing, but you also need to have companies that are going to do well and have a strong strategy. i think intel is involved in this investment cycle at this point in time.

it is always hard to own companies when they are in investment cycle mode. qualcomm is a little bit ahead of intel at this point. like i said, i prefer broadcom on any pullback or lam research. >> steph, can you explain the view of the impact of the uncertainty around the democratic nominee will be on the markets? i think we all saw where things were going two or three weeks ago and now we don't. i don't know if that changes the dynamics at play with regulations or taxes or any ceo looking at cap ex? now some are saying they are holding off because they really don't know what will happen. >> there is definitely more uncertainty at this point in time. what i have found in my career,

it doesn't matter as much about the presidency, but it really matters about congress. the makeup of congress. if it is a split congress, that is actually what the market likes because nothing gets done, unfortunately, i don't like to say that, but that's what the market wants. them don't want surprises. it is more important there. >> what is your s&p earnings for next year? we will have tom lee on. i think he was 270. he is higher now. even if multiples could contract, it could still put you higher on the averages. what do you think for next year? >> joe, it is either earnings or multiples. that's how you get higher or lower stock earnings. i think you will see 8% to 10% this year and i think you will see about the same for next year. a lot of that is because of the

economy. >> would it be 285? >> sure, of course. >> that's a lot. >> look, that's why -- it is a lot. the economy is running. the atlanta tracker came out last friday at 2.2%. when you have gdp at 2% or 2.2%, you can get mid-single digit revenue numbers and you can get a little bit of margin or staying strong or expanding. that gets you double digits in terms of earnings. there are a lot of operating margins. i think a lot of people are not expecting margins to be better than expecting. you have pricing power and lower inflation. that is good for margins. overall, i feel pretty good about the overall earnings picture because the economy is doing pretty good. >> stephanie, thank you. nice to see you. all right.

still to come this morning, big tech going nuclear? as we head to break, check out the price of crude oil. it is up slightly this morning and gaining about 15% arye to date. "squawk box" will be right back. old school hard work meets bold new thinking. (laughter) at 88 years old, we still see the world with the wonder of new eyes, helping you discover untapped possibilities and relentlessly working with you to make them real. old school grit. new world ideas. morgan stanley.

i'm andrea, and this is why i switched to shopify. it gave me so much peace of mind. if we make a change, my site's not going to go down. and just knowing that i have a platform that we can rely on, that is gold to us. start your free trial today. (luke) this will be a gold mine of local intel. just you wait. (marci) right. so, tell us about this corn festival? (stylist 1) oooh you got your corn pudding... you got your corn chowder... (marci) so... is it safe around here? (stylist 2) sometimes. (luke) if a family of eight were to need a cold plunge, where would they find it? (stylist 1) ...and then they dip it in butter, then bam, it goes right in. (stylist 2) ...really cute vampire bar. (stylist 1) the reverend does like a blessing on the corn. (luke) donut shops. how far from here? (marci) no eyebrows? (luke) think of how light it'll feel in the summer. we've got to run. eleven thousand more neighborhoods to go! (vo) ding dong! homes-dot-com.

i can't believe you corporate types are still at it. just stop calling each other rock stars. and using workday to put finance and h.r. on one platform. tim, you are a rock star. using responsible ai doesn't make you a rock star. it kinda does. you are not rock stars. (clears throat) okay. most of you are not rock stars. oooh. data driven insights, and large language models. oh, that's so rock roll. it is, right. he gets it. yeah.

welcome back, everybody. tech companies are making moves to go nuclear. one-third of nuclear power plants are in talks with tech firms to provide electricity to data firms for demands.

constellation energy is the nation's largest owner of nuclear power plants. aws recently purchased a nuclear powered data center in pennsylvania for 650 million d. coming up, boeing set to make a deal to buy spirit aerosystems. we'll have the latest. next, we have tom lee with the ll ocaf the markets. good time to check in with him. "squawk box" is coming right back. >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business. next level moments need the next level network. k you so muc i couldn't have done it without you. honestly, i don't do a whole lot here. i'm really just here for the at&t internet, it's super-fast so, any pre-launch concerns? what if nobody buys them? that's mean or, what if everybody buys them? oh, i hadn't thought of that

that's probably not gonna happen can we handle that kind of traffic? the network can handle it! i downloaded eight hours of true crime stories just during our last video call i'm learning a lot - so this is pickleball? - pickle! ah, these guys are intense. with e*trade from morgan stanley, we're ready for whatever gets served up. dude, you gotta work on your trash talk. i'd rather work on saving for retirement. or college, since you like to get schooled. that's a pretty good burn, right? when you need to prepare for unpredictable adventures... (gasp) you need weathertech. [hot dog splat.] laser measured floorliners front and rear. [drink slurp and splat.] (scream) seat protector to save the seats. [honk!] they're all yours! we're here!

hey, i knew you were comin'... so i weatherteched the car! can we get ice cream? we can now. kid proof your vehicle with american made products at weathertech.com.

boeing striking a deal to buy back spirit aerosystems. phil lebeau joins us right now. he has more on that front. phil, we knew this was coming. >> it took a while to put together. a third party here, airbus, taking a chunk of spirit aerosystems. it's $8.3 billion.

that's the total value of the deal including the debt. airbus gets 20%. for boeing, the importance here, and we talked about this for months. they have to have some way to better insulate the fuselage for spirit and in tulsa, kansas. they have to integrate it for better quality control and manufacturing process and so many problems we have detailed over the last year and a half have been surrounding the facilities of spirit in wichita. they get the plant. 14,000 workers at spirit will now be part of the boeing team. you look at shares of boeing and remember this is an all-stock deal structured that way to help boeing withstand a credit downgrade. if it were to pay cash, it would be a downgrade.

aero's debt would be assumed by boeing. boeing ceo dave calhoun says this is in the best interest of the flying public and customers and spirit and boeing. more broadly, this deal will not close right away. it expect to take until the middle of incnext year. i mentioned the airbus comp component. separ spirit is paying airbus 559million to take over the facilities where parts of the a-220 are made. the reason they are doing that? this is a loss for the fac facilities in what they are manufacturing for airbus. this is the deal. the deal that everyone expected to come together has come together. there are four things that need to happen before you see shares of boeing potentially move. this is one of the four.

the big one is naming a new ceo. when that happens, that might be the start of the catalyst toward seeing where boeing shares will go six months or 12 months down the road. >> phil, there were so many questions around boeing's safety credentials that have been raised. i know people look at spirit aerosystems and say that was a big part of the problem. does it fix it to simply bring that back inhouse? just the idea -- >> we'll find out, becky. sure. you are hitting right at the main question that many investors have which is how quickly can they correct the problems at spirit and oh, by the way, they've got their own problems. the company with problems is trying to fix on the company with its own set of problems, related, but separate to a certain extent. how quickly can boeing do this?

i have seen some reports and notably ryanair has said that some planes being different, alta delivered, it is different with some delivered and the issues that the airlines have to shake out with delivery of a new aircraft. it will take time before boeing can say, we think we are in a place where production can move substantially higher because the quality controls are in place. >> phil, thank you. >> you bet. coming up after this, we will talk about it because a weekend of damage control and fundraising for the biden campaign out in the hamptons over the weekend. we'll have the latest on both of that story next. reminder, you can get the best of "squawk box" on squawk pod and listen anytime.

we'll be right back.

what is cirkul? cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. cirkul is the energy that gets you to the next level. cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul.com. hello. i'm ethereum. and i'm big finance. you look really tired. just calling it a day. but it's 4 p.m. yeah, and i've been working nonstop

since 9:30 this morning, so. 9:30. you don't say? yep. you'd want a little shut-eye too if you'd been moving billions around the world. well, actually, i do. you know, stablecoins, nfts, loans. people can access me 24/7. what? but look, everyone's different. you should get your rest. you'll get after it tomorrow. tomorrow's saturday. [ethereum] monday. you'll get after it again on monday.

welcome back to "squawk box." we're going to talk politics and the post-debate fundraising blitz that took place over the weekend. megan cassella joins us with more. good morning. >> reporter: good morning, andrew. the biden campaign is looking to shore up confidence after the debate. they had been alarmed after the thursday night debate. the biden campaign raised $33 million from thursday through saturday with most of that, about $26 million, from donors. thursday and friday were the best days for the grassroots donors. biden needs the wealthy donors. he had three big fund-raisers this weekend. i spoke with attendees and they seemed insured about the events over the weekend. those in new york were resolve to do more to help biden win

after thursday. a third source told me the debate was a cold-shower shock and making them more engaged because they are frightened about the outcome than on thursday. the emerging consensus is there is a lot of frustration that the party is in this position. they are standing by their candidate. the upshot is if you are standing by biden because you are anti-trump, you are still standing by biden. >> some are looking to put together a separate fund, in fact, only if another nominee would emerge and that money would not be available to the president. what do you think of that? >> i think there is a bit of bulletproofing going on. some candidates are raising more in case they need it. the upshot is the calling for dying down for president biden to resign.

by sunday, that had really calmed down among the same people. i think, yes, that sentiment is out there. one thing we did see over the weekend or on friday was linkedin co-founder reid hoffman laid out five points over why that should not happen. people are coualescing behind that. it is up to president biden and his family. if they don't make that decision, we will still support him no matter what. at the end of the day, it is trump versus biden. >> megan, the people i spoke to, they may be in the position you want, but because he will refuse to step down and they feel this is a reality they have to accept. >> it is easier if he doesn't for everything. let's talk about this with someone who has been all over this story the weekend. axios national alex thompson

will join us right now. oh, my god. alex, thank you for joining us this morning. every time i think we should talk about it, i'm ready to look down at my screen looking at citing individuals requesting anonymity. i'm ready for it at anytime it is such a fluid situation. the move is afoot to find somebody else and we heard the wa wagons are circling. there is no heir apparent, alex. what do you expect to happen? as of 6:40 a.m., east coast time, what do you know? >> both things can be true. some people are scouring to see if there can be a replacement and the wagons are circling around joe biden. you basically saw joe biden's

family take the wheel over the weekend to go to camp david with a shoot with annie liebowitz. the first lady on the cover of "vogue" this month dropped this morning. that being said, the only person to get off the ballot is joe biden. this is a one-person decision. the fact is, a lot of donors and democrats and a lot of white house staff, are simultaneously sad because of how this could affect the election, but also feel really angry right now because they feel like they've been gaslit. they could see joe biden was struggling in public forums, the last six months especially, but over the last year and confronted by eye rolls and people in the white house being he's as sharp as ever.

maybe he has physical fra frailities, but he is fine. it has people in the white house questioning whether or not he can win this election or whether or not he can be the president in 2029 which is what he is trying to do. >> i don't really -- that's what nece they have to do, i think. they didn't have much choice than to try to protect him and keep him out as much as possible to present minhim in the best lt they could. the mainstream media, they're in the tank and i don't know how they defend themselves after this. >> you have seen a shift since thursday -- >> it's sad. just pull the rug out from under him when they no longer need him and don't think he is useful to their cause anymore. i guess it's politics and human

nature. >> human nature and reporters feel lied to, too. that's the main reaction. i had this experience as i reported on biden's age several times over the last year. the white house has issued denials and gaslit and has not told the truth. not only just to reporters, but sometimes to themselves. i think there is a little bit of denialism happening within the white house among some of his top aides in addition to that. >> they are now blaming the media. i saw that they are saying if there is any drop in the polls, it is because the media is exaggerating this. >> that's what they said all along. >> it is extraordinary. two weeks ago the "wall street journal" had the story biden is slipping. they in essence called it fake news. now they're saying it again. >> right.

they had 30 sources and people like that calling it poorly sourced. poorly sourced. just whatever it takes from the white house. almost repeating verbatim what the white house told them to say. >> the journal could have av avoided that pushback if the republicans were not on record. the journal's reporting is born out by what everyone saw on stage. biden has been slipping. he can still win this race because the fact of the matter is that there are tens of millions of people in this country that would still vote for joe biden at 110 over donald trump. you actually saw that in some of the flash polls afterwards. 33% of the people thought joe biden won the debate. that is 33% higher than barack obama in 2012.

>> cbs poll yesterday showed that nearly 75% of americans thought he was too old to hold office. >> it is very difficult to win a presidential race if that is the statue ar you are working again. that may be the mechanism. it is tricky because it is the july 4th weekend and unclear when we get the next series of high quality polling. that could shift the narrative. if you see a collapse of five to ten points, which is within the realm of possibility, you could see donors flee en masse. what does the party do? >> alex, i have a question for you. you had a piece of what was known inside the white house and how many people were in the inner circle that might have known the true state and condition of the president relative to maybe this was described to the public. can you talk about not just the

piece itself, but i'm curious the reaction to that. >> so, basically, the piece was that the core inner circle of the white house, which is about a dozen to 20 people, have cordoned off the president since day one. that has led to the shock factor in the white house. a lot of white house aides watching the debate on thursday night had no idea this sort of side of joe biden existed. part of that is because they had in intermittent access. they would see a senior moment. they would forget he would call the mom of a certain lawmaker a few weeks ago. then oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. people brushed it off as a brain fart and anyone could do it. that is a more consistent behavior. >> how did we know if they didn't know? don't believe your eyes. you got one more? i want to ask him something. >> the second related question

to this is clearly it appears jill biden, jill, not joe, is the prime mover. there is a fview inside the pary that she is the prime mover on any decision that gets made. the question is where are the pressure points around her and her perspective and to the extent they would pick a replacement if they did and how they would have to pre-wire that or want to pre-wire that? >> and let's say i'll throw in joe biden's sister. she's not been on board for a year and she supposedly has a lot of influence. that puts her in direct opposition with the first lady, does it? >> few parts of that. jill biden is the most important person in this coming month about what decisions he is doing. you saw her take the wheel. you saw her do the rally right after the debate praising joe

biden for answering every question. you also saw her introduce him in a fiery rally. i can tell you in the fund-raisers over the weekend, people there were struck that joe biden was talking on a teleprompter, but how much jill biden spoke and it seemed to be half the time. in terms of the pressure points around her, the person not well known is anthony bernal, who has been with her since 2008 and has been influence al in the white house and the loyalties are of the family. i think that's going to be -- those are the main people that are influeninfluential. >> alex, what phone calls do you have from the white house since you put out that report? >> you know, it is interesting. in terms of the official white house comms, nothing really.

in terms of the white house people, there has been -- honestly, it ranges from anger to being sad. there's deep, deep anger among many people in the white house now being put in this position where they might not only lose the election, but this could affect their own careers and legacy and also fear that joe biden, who lived an extraordinary life in public service, that his own legacy could be permanently scarred by this. it could be the first line in his obituary if trump were to win. >> hunter. we didn't mention hunter. hunter said his father is the smartest guy that he knows and his father says he is the smartest guy he knows. thanks, alex. we'll be right back. meets bold new thinking. (laughter) at 88 years old, we still see the world

with the wonder of new eyes, helping you discover untapped possibilities and relentlessly working with you to make them real. old school grit. new world ideas. morgan stanley. (♪♪) car, this isn't the way home. that's right james, it isn't. car, where are we going? we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!! the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. car, were you in on this? nothing gets by you james. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com

[crowd chanting] they ignored your potential, and mocked your ambition. but it's not the critic who counts. with every swing and block, your game plan never changed. ♪♪ some still call it luck. let them. because you know what it's always been. inevitable. ♪♪ ♪♪

still to come this morning, the supreme court overturning a 40-year-old decision that allowed federal agencies to more easily regulate the environment, public health, workplace safety, and other consumer protections. the pushback against big government, dr. scott gottlieb will tell us how this ruling could impact his former agency, the fda, a fure ugndutdr approvals. "squawk box" will be right back.

so this is pickleball? it's basically tennis for babies, but for adults. it should be called wiffle tennis. pickle! yeah, aw! whoo! ♪♪ these guys are intense. we got nothing to worry about. with e*trade from morgan stanley, we're ready for whatever gets served up. dude, you gotta work on your trash talk. i'd rather work on saving for retirement. or college, since you like to get schooled. that's a pretty good burn, right? got him. good game. thanks for coming to our clinic, first one's free.

welcome back, everybody. the supreme court has overturned a 1980s precedent known as the chevron doctrine.

that decision could undercut federal agencies including the fda. joining us right thousand for more on this is former fda commissioner and cnbc contributor dr. scott gottlieb. thank you for being here. i wanted to talk to you about this not just in your role as the former fda commissioner, but also as someone who used to work at the american enterprise institute, which takes the view that big government's not always a great thing. i just wonder how you are looking at this decision that was originally brought by fishermen in the atlantic who were unhappy with having to pay for monitors who were watching over what they were hauling in. why don't you talk through how you see all of this and what it means. >> i'm still at the american enterprise institute. i think a lot of conservatives viewed this as a way to constrain the administrative state, that regulatory agencies had expanded the scope of their authority into new areas that congress hadn't clearly delineated. now agencies aren't going to be

able to do that. if you were a regulator, if we issued rule making and we were interpreting the statute in anl by guty, new product areas, as long as we went through rule making we generally felt the courts would defer to us under chevron doctrine. that was a reason to go through the rule making process. now that presumption no longer exists and so you're going to have to go back to congress in many cases, get explicit authority if you want to extend the agency's jurisdiction. with respect to the fda specifically i would expect the court would still defer to fda on fact making decision-making with respect to the drug approval process and medical product review. courts and congress has given the agency broad grants of authority in those areas to make fact-based, science-based decisions. but when agencies trying to delineate its regulatory supervision over new product areas, laboratory developed

tests or certain food safety rules, i think those are the areas where the agency's authority is going to be more ambiguous. they're going to be challenged, and congress ultimately is going to have to come in and probably relegislate some of these areas to make sure that the agency's jurisdiction, in places where you want the agency to be regulating where it's very clear. >> could you have gone after juul the way you did in their marketing towards kids under this new ruling? >> right, so one of the rules that could very likely be challenged is the agency's efforts to try to regulate flavored vapes, for example. a lot of what we did when we went after juul is taking enforcement actions under the existing statute and regulations, which i think was pretty ironclad. we were on firm ground. we were challenged in courts and we prevailed not under chevron deference. i think there have been some rules that have been promulgated in the intervening years

particularly around flavored tobacco products where the agency could face a challenge. that would be one of the more immediate places you'll see some litigation now as a result of this decision. you know, you led at the top with the politics of this. it's interesting to go back to 1984 when this doctrine was first established. it was conservatives that were fighting for it because they felt that the courts were second guessing regulatory agencies. remember, those regulatory agencies were under the control of a republican president at the time, and they felt that the regulatory agencies should have more jurisdiction and not the courts. now you see the politics of this reversed. >> i was just reading -- i didn't even realize supreme court justice neil gorsuch was in the majority deciding this, it was his mother who was the former administrator and gorsuch who actually made the decision that the supreme court upheld back in 1984, which is describing your point exactly, how he's changed flavors with them. i've had other people who are

former fda officials saying this could be very bad because it could mean that congress basically has to sign off on every decision that they're making, could really slow things down, especially when you consider that congress can't even do its own job on time, which is coming up with a budget. are you concerned on that level, and you mentioned yourself that congress may have to rewrite some of these rules. do you see that happening? how long would that take and how difficult of a job would that be to get through congress? >> yeah, with respect to fda, i think there is a general view in washington that they go through very careful rule making. the agency issues a lot of regulations. if you look at a lot of fda statute, congress gives the agency broad grants of discretion by directing it to develop guidance in specific areas. so in areas where the congress has explicitly said we want you to develop a guidance to delineate what your regulatory oversight is going to be in this general area, i think if you read the recent supreme court decision, those would be per received as general grants of authority back to the agency. so i think you're going to see

more of that in statute. i wouldn't be worried about the agency's decision-making around scientific matters, product review decisions. i think it's going to be in areas where the agency has stepped in to regulate new areas of technology, where congress didn't explicitly direct the agency to do that. those aren't very common. they do exist, laboratory developed tests as i mentioned is one of the things i would expect to be challenged quite immediately under this supreme court decision. but as far as the day in, day out of the agency's scientific decision-making i wouldn't expect those to be challenged. another broad area is around the grants of exclusivity. the fda makes a lot of determinations about what exclusivity periods different products are entitled to. those are already the subject of a lot of litigation. under this new recent supreme court ruling, you're going to see more challenges there. >> dr. gottlieb, thank you. >> thanks a lot. it is now 7:00 a.m. on the east coast. you're watching "squawk box"

right here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen and becky quick. we've got a lot going on. boeing agreeing to acquire spirit aerosystems in an all stock deal. the company at $4.7 billion. boeing saying the move is to buy back its troubled former subsidiary will help improve safety and quality control. blackrock buying uk data provider preqin for more than $3 billion. blackrock says it's the fastest growing segment of the asset management business. and apple's ai plans go beyond integrating its new apple intelligence technology in the iphone, ipad, and mac. the tech giant is working to bring these features to the vision pro headset. the challenge is rezwiening how the features will look in mixed reality. apple changing how it demos it in stores allowing buyers to

view their personal media, which may make it more attractive. >> one of these days maybe. >> you know what i just bought? >> you're waiting for version three. >> you know what i bought the ray-ban meta glasses. i tried them on. it's the first time i've ever wanted one of these things. they talk right into your head, it's really cool. >> that's all i need. i hear voices now. that's the problem. checking the futures, a quick look, close to highs in a couple of the averages adding about 27 points on the dow 14. on the nasdaq, let's get to contessa brewer with a look at this morning's premarket movers, and not like caesars and -- >> no, we're going to move past the -- you know, i was just thinking if you're hearing voices in your head, isn't it just the producers talking to you in your ear? >> yeah, maybe that's it. >> because i mean, like we all

hear voices. >> you can ask it questions and they answer. i guess the producers do too. >> i ignore the voices. they're talking in my ear saying move it along. nvidia is getting a price target increase from morgan stanley this morning from $116 to 144. you're seeing shares down in the premarket by a percent. the analysts indicate there's strong demand from china, estimates stay the same short-term, but morgan stanley is raising earnings' estimates through 2025 to 334 per share to 294. they acknowledge the sharp acceleration in valuation since the last earnings report, but say this is the most compelling narrative in the ai semi space. wells fargo is adding tesla to its tactical underweight list. driven by lower demand and diminished return on price cuts. it estimates deliveries will decline 14% year on year. sort of a rough report, and

you've got shares higher by more than a percent in the premarket. wells is raising questions about whether tesla belongs in the mag 7 at all because it's trading at 88 times p/e versus its peers at 35 times on a lower outlook for earnings. but the robotaxi in august is taking up a lot of spotlight, which may be why we see shares on the rise. birkenstock getting a raise on price target from 52 to $85 from ubs. its direct to consumer expansion is successfully executing. it is rapidly ramping up in asia, factory expansions are going well, plus he says the market's not giving credit for its ability to transition to closed toe shoes. ubs's eps is 10% above consensus, and birken stock shares on the rise. all right, contessa, never owned a pair. i sold them. i sold them. >> a shoe salesman?

>> yes. >> really? >> yeah, someone on the set has owned -- >> yeah. you bet ya. >> you're sitting the same way, go ahead. >> exactly. >> there you go. my hand down my pants. andrew, you own some birkenstocks. >> i do. >> you do now? >> i do. >> part of my sales pitch cwas that the foam, like your toes went into -- >> yeah, they do. >> squishy. >> i wasn't just exaggerating to sell the -- to get a sale? >> no, it actually forms to your foot. that's the great part about this. >> when do you wear them? >> with socks. >> and what color socks? l ♪ honestly, i don't do a whole lot here. i'm really just here for the at&t internet, it's super-fast

so, any pre-launch concerns? what if nobody buys them? that's mean or, what if everybody buys them? oh, i hadn't thought of that that's probably not gonna happen can we handle that kind of traffic? the network can handle it! i downloaded eight hours of true crime stories just during our last video call i'm learning a lot did you ever worry we wouldn't get to enjoy this? [jeff laughs maniacally] (inner monologue) seriously, look at these guys. they are playing great. meanwhile, i'm on the green and all i can think about is all the green i'm spending on 3 kids in college. not to mention the kitchen remodel, and we'd just remodel the bathrooms last month. with empower, i get all of my financial questions answered. so i don't have to worry. so you're like a guru now? oh here it comes— join 18 million americans and take control of your financial future with a real time dashboard and real live conversations. empower. what's next. see that? that's like the gap in my health insurance. gap in your health insurance? yeah, it didn't cover everything when i got hurt. good thing i had aflac. (aflac duck) hmmm the cash i got from aflac

helped pay for medical expenses, groceries, rent. it really helped close that gap. (whisper) go, go, go! (group) yay! go aflac! go duck! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. find an agent. get a quote at aflac.com. wish we had aflac on our team. you can! (♪♪) when we're young, we're told anything is possible... ...but only a few of us go out and prove it.

witness the greatness of anna hall on a connection worthy of gold: xfinity mobile. only xfinity gives you the most powerful mobile wifi network, with speeds up to a gig in millions of locations. and right now, xfinity internet customers can buy one unlimited line and get one free for a year. get the fastest connection to paris with xfinity.

the last -- the most recent time tom -- when he said the s&p would reach 5,500 by the end of june, it did. it hasn't closed above there. joining us is tom lee, global advisers managing partner and a cnbc contributor. close enough for government work. you're right again, once again your rationale was borne out that inflation would continue to cool. it's july 1st. you have a new target for the end of the year or i've already sort of foreshadowed some of the things we were talking about. s&p earnings might even be above what you thought. >> yes, i think that now that we're at the mid-year, 2025 er earnings look a lot stronger than we thought at the start of the year. we thought 260. it's probably closer to 275, maybe 280, even 285, and i think the multiple we thought

originally could be 20 times that number for next year, but given the fed has more reasons to be dovish and i think maybe the employment picture is softening, p/e multiples actually could be higher next year, so i'd say between now and year end stocks should be higher. i mean, we've had a strong first half already, and second half won't be as strong as the first half, but we should build upon those gains. so yeah, it looks pretty good. >> you have numbers. i mean, so if the s&p is 285 possibly, that's earnings. >> correct. >> 285 up from 270, because the economy doesn't cool, multiples don't expand. in fact, they might contract from 21 to 20. so if you multiply 20 times 285, you get to 5,800. >> yeah, so that sounds like it would be within reasonable -- as a reasonable base case, that stocks don't have to have a prodigious second half. they just have follow what

typically happens in the second half, especially in an election year. >> 5,800 for the year, what would that be the total return, 15 now so -- >> yeah, you know, it's a little bit more than 20%. >> which would be after last year's -- >> 24. >> 24. >> that's a couple years no one really expected, i don't think. >> that's right. i mean, that's painful for people who have been sitting in cash for two years earning 5% because they missed out on a 50% gain, and that's ten years worth of sitting on cash. so i think the end of this year is a little bit of a day of reckoning for those who have said, oh, i'm happy with my 6 trillion in cash earning 5%, when in reality unless the economy is rolling into a recession, you know, the expansion will continue for some time. >> is the 6 trillion, and that's what's fueling this, the additional liquidity, people aren't fully invested, was that gotten through organic positive

means or was it gotten through stimulus that shouldn't have been probably legislated and shouldn't have been printed. is there good money, or is it money that comes home to roost because it's too much? >> i haven't deconstructed that, but it's a valid point because you know we are running a pretty big fiscal deficit at a time when it's not necessary. there is a lot of earned income on people's assets. i think that accounted for a lot of this increase in cash. historically that would have been invested, reinvested in the economy or into equities, but it's been instead earning cash. >> you know that my insecurity about crypto manifested itself again, my feet of clay because i said tom lee is going to be absolutely right about the 5,500. why is he still saying 150 for bitcoin. why do that? why not just focus on stock.

don't stick your neck out because if we're falling below 60,000, now it's back to almost 63,000. so that 6 trillion we talked about, that sort of play ss int your bitcoin thesis. >> bitcoin is probably suffering from the mount gok distribution starting in july, that was a huge overhang for many years. if i was investing crypto, knowing that one of the biggest overhangs is going to disappear in july, i think it's a reason to expect a sharp rebound in the second half. i think 150 is still within -- >> it's almost july 1st, so that's -- so you're not taking that off the table. that's no possibility. >> that's right. bitcoin makes most of its gains with ten days every year. if you take out the ten best days in a single year, bitcoin actually has negative returns. >> hey, tom, when you say there's a reckoning for people who have been hanging around in cash, that means that they're going to have to say oh, my gosh, what am i doing and get into the market or that they've missed it all and they've missed potentially years of advances?

>> well, it's probably a little bit of both. i think that there has been valid reasons for people to be concerned because inflation isn't fully defeated yet, and there's people who think we could roll into a recession. so i think those are valid, but if we don't have those, then the stock market shouldn't peak next year. we're mid-cycle. we have $100 trillion generational asset transfer going from boomers to gen z and millennials. they're going to have a higher risk tolerance. i think stocks have a pretty long runway ahead. that's why i think two years is a day of reckoning. >> related back to bitcoin, i don't know if you saw the interview i did with peter thiel and some of his comments last week in aspen, which of course was a massive bull, famously called warren but fete a sociopathic grandpa because he was upset he was against bitcoin.

he seemed to take his foot off the gas at a minimum, even made the comment which i was very surprised by about the way he looks at the fbi and how the fbi says, you know, criminals are using bitcoin and it was such a fascinating shift. i have to say like when i asked the question, i thought i was, you know, ready for him to say, you know, it's going to a tom lee style or cathie wood style, you know, 500,000, and it was very much the opposite. i was totally caught off guard. were you? >> yes and no. i mean, he has been very early in bitcoin, you know, so for him -- >> right. >> -- as he thinks about total return and he being a venture capitalist, i think he's looking around today and seeing that there's all these other new opportunities, so bitcoin isn't as shiny as it used to be. but that kind of makes sense because, you know, the next generational holders of bitcoin are institutional, not necessarily venture early stage

capitalists like peter thiel. >> i was surprised with a gun to my head. he raised money for trump last time. he got so butt hurt from that, i felt kind of bad. he looks like he's still dealing with the fallout from being doxed and everything else. tough to live in silicon valley after you did that, right? >> he doesn't live in silicon valley. >> i'm sure he doesn't at this point. >> no, he moved to l.a. a long time ago. >> oh, well, that helps. he's still incognito there. he's got his n95 on all the time. >> he does not, trust me. >> great to see you. when we come back, the far right national rally party won the first round of parliamentary elections in france raising the expectations of a hung parliament, what it could mean to investors. reaction to last week's debate, and what it means for both candidates. former senators judd gregg and

he heidi heitkamp will join us. we'll be right back.

welcome back. marine le pen's far right party winning the first round of france's parliamentary election.

joining us right now is max bergman, europe, russia, and eurasia director for the center for strategic and international studies. and max, what did the snap election show and what do you expect to have happen this weekend with the second round and with what happens in the uk? >> well, the vote was a real rejection of emmanuel macron. he's now, i think, effectively a lame duck president with three years left in his mandate, and he called elections perhaps unnecessarily, but in part because the far right had done so well in europe and european parliamentary elections that were held earlier this month where the far right did quite well, and i think he was sort of trying to call the far right's bluff and say, okay, french voters, do you really want the far right to be in government, and the end result is not a huge surprise. it basically reflects the vote that we saw two years ago in french presidential elections where the far right got around

33 to 40% of the vote. so we're looking at right now is a period of immense turmoil in french politics. it will probably resemble a little bit like the u.s. where we have divided government and nothing can really get done. so a little bit more complicated in the french system because they are effectively electing a prime minister, and that prime minister also has a role in the executive in running government as well. so something called cohabitation, and it's unclear exactly how this will play out. this is the first round, there will be the second round in another week, so then we'll know the final seats. it's going to be pretty messy going forward. >> max, how would you just gauge the sentiment, the political sentiment if you look at all of the g-7 countries? you can look at europe. you can look at what's happening in canada, the united states. where are the political winds blowing? >> well, i think there's anti-incumbent winds that are

blowing, and i think in part in eur europe we have to remember that russia's invasion of ukraine sparked a real continental-wide energy crisis that caused huge increase in a lot of -- in cost of living. and i think to the surprise of many analysts that didn't lead to an anti-ukraine vote emerging, it led to an anti-incumbent vote emerging. in the uk, which is about to have elections on our independence day on july 4th, there i think we have 14 years of conservative rule. we have brexit sort of really going awry causing all sorts of economic complications, and we have effectively a loss of faith in the tory party, the conservative party's economic management, in part fueled by the cost of living crisis, and it's going to lead to a real rejection of conservatives, so we're not really seeing a

uniform trend in the far right emerging or the center left emerging. it's sort of if you were holding the keys to the car of government during a huge spike in cost of living, it probably impacted your popularity. >> so inflation is the big boogeyman. we've had people say that we're getting inflation under control. how confident are you in that, and where would you look to see a resurgence in inflation? >> well, i think in europe in particular, the energy crisis has abated, that the europeans have actually taken enormous steps. we actually have a report coming out this very week about how europe responded to the energy crisis, and it's rather remarkable. europe is far more energy secure in part because of u.s. ln fwfwg, but also because of massive investment in renewables and other steps taken by the europeans to get off russian gas.

and so that has led to prices coming down, and i think what we've seen with the european central bank is beginning to cut rates, so i think the ecb feels that inflation has been somewhat changed, and i think there's a real hope that growth begins to really return to europe, and i think that may cool some of the anti-incumbent sentiment we're seeing across the continent. it may be a little too late for emmanuel macron at least in election. >> max bergman, thanks for joining us, max. >> thanks so much. coming up, still to come, former senators heidi heitkamp and judd gregg are going to join us to talk about last week's presidential debate and where u n'gs go from here. yodot want to go anywhere. we're coming right back. meets bold new thinking. to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real. (♪♪)

(♪♪) what took you so long? i'm sorry, there was a long line at the thai place. you get the sauce i like? of course! you're the man! i wish. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com [crowd chanting] they ignored your potential, and mocked your ambition. but it's not the critic who counts. with every swing and block, your game plan never changed. ♪♪ some still call it luck. let them. because you know what it's always been.

inevitable. ♪♪ ♪♪

americans feel that they're going to have to earn $186,000 a year, same as the speed of light, right, to feel financially comfortable and secure. a new bank rate survey finds that that's more than twice what the average full-time worker made in 2022. now, to feel financially free and rich, the number rises to

$520,000 up 8% from last year, roughly 75% of the people say they not completely secure based on their current financial situation. some positive news from the box office, which is pretty rare these days, disney's inside out 2 has crossed the $1 billion mark at the worldwide box office in less than three weeks of its release reaching that level in the fastest time of any animated film in history. the film is the highest grossing movie of the year and the only one to cross a billion dollars so far in 2024. you saw that. >> mm-hmm. loved it. >> andrew's a buyer. >> i'm a buyer. i think actually better than the first one, by the way. >> wait, got to talk about this next one, paramount's "a quiet place". >> sing sing. >> $3 million at the box office, that's the prequel to "the quiet place" franchise. it was only expected to bring in $40 million over the weekend, and i have to say i can't wait

to see that one too. >> it's not wide release yet. >> sing sing. >> sing sing. big 10 out of 10. it's unbelievable. it's half real, half not. and it's about sing sing, but it's about a way -- it's about humanity, andrew, something i think you'd like. >> i love humanity. >> and the human condition, and it's -- i don't ever cry. >> you cried? >> yes. >> i cry all the time as you know. >> several times. >> even during the show. >> you do. coming up -- i'm doing my job -- coming up, what investors should take away from last week's debate performances. judd gregg and heidi heitkamp join us to discuss that and more. and later, former white house council of economic advisers chair kevin hassett is going to join us to talk about inflation, the economy and more. we'll be right back.

[ speaking minionese ] junior. [ laughter ] good job junior. way to go. [ speaking minionese ] ♪ welcome back to "squawk box." we want to talk about the fallout from last week's debate. president biden's campaign spending the weekend in damage

control mode. nbc news reporting that the biden campaign holding tense negotiations and conversations with democratic officials and donors yesterday pushing back against suggestions that the president might step down from the race, stressing the president has no plans to do so. joining us now with more reaction to last week's presidential debate, former u.s. senator heidi hieitkampheitkamp. a cnbc contributor and former republican senator and former new hampshire governor, judd gregg. good morning to both of you. heidi heitkamp, it was nice to see you in aspen last week but i want to ask you what you thought about the debate and what you think happens next. >> by any objective measure this was a bad debate on both sides, but i think biden basically had one job, and that was to come out and answer the concerns that people had about age, about his ability to serve four more years. i don't think he met that mark, and i think there isn't anyone

who should suggest that he did. however, the decision on what happens going forward belongs to one person, and that's joe biden, and so we'll see what happens. and what's sad about all this deba de debate is it e clipped the debate performance of donald trump. donald trump was calm, which i didn't expect but he also was not very clear in terms of what he believed and where he was headed. i think what the american public saw, andrew, was two candidates they had an opinion about before hand saying i don't like either one of them, none of this -- >> that might be true, and before i get to judd, clearly i think anybody who was watching that performance it was almost sad to see somebody at that age not be able to perform the way you would imagine and then some of the reporting over the weekend, we just talked to the author of one of the stories suggesting that lots of people insides white house have known, in fact, how bad it has been and that perhaps we've all been gas

lit over the past several years as people have asked questions about age. do you sense a shift in terms of how donors are going to behave and what kind of pressure point there is will or won't be on the president to potentially step away and find a new nominee? >> well, i think biden has one thing going for him, and his name's donald trump, and so as people will look at him and objectively judge him, i think that the bigger concern from donors and from a lot of democrats is we don't want donald trump back in the white house, and so if biden decides to stay in this, there will be a huge rallying around biden, and we'll go forward. but i think it's really up to joe biden to take a look at that debate performance and say can i make it four more years and can i win this election objectively. >> judd, two questions for you, one is you've known joe biden for a very long time. what did you think, and two, you

were never i don't think somebody who was particularly in love with former president trump, if in fact, a new nominee were to emerge on the democratic party side could you imagine yourself voting for them? >> your first question, i can serve with him for 18 years. i like him, he's a decent individual, but he's not the joe biden i served with. he projects himself now, he is unfortunately feeble both physically and mentally it appears, and he's going to get feebler, he's going to be 83, 84, 85, and 86 if he were reelected. you can't have a president like that. i think the democrats have three choices. one, biden stays in and they lose the white house, they lose the house, they lose the senate, and donald trump wins and that must really scare them. their second choice is he steps aside and picks somebody substantive and they maybe keep the presidency and win the house and maybe even keep the senate

or a third path is he replaces his vice president, and franklin roosevelt did this a lot, and we got harry truman as a result of it, one of the best presidents of the 20th century, and he brings in somebody who's substantive as vice president so people are a little more comfortable voting for him because they presume he's not going to serve out his term. none of those choices are very good for the democratic party. they've got serious problems and the fact that the more senior members of that party haven't stepped up and said, hey, maybe they're doing it in private, they have to go to him and say, listen, mr. president, you're going to elect donald trump and that's not good for us. >> both of you, what do you think the risk is to the democratic party if they were to try to nominate somebody else and whether that would quote, unquote divide the party, right? to the extent that there is an anxiety inside the white house or at least the one that they project about why they believe that president biden is the right person, the view, i think,

is that once you start to open up the possibility that there could be others that it divides all -- you know, everything and given that president biden was the one who beat former president trump last time that they think that is the somehow safer choice. >> i don't think that's true at all. i think if they chose somebody substantive like gretchen whitmer or somebody like that, the party would immediately unite around the person and the person would be very viable. a younger vibrant kcandidate on the democratic side, donald trump's in trouble. but with joe biden donald trump is not in trouble. he's going to win. he's going to win big. >> heidi. >> i couldn't agree more. i think that this idea that somehow this would be totally disruptive and would throw the party into turmoil, i think it would bring a level of excitement and enthusiasm, not just from democrats but from independents. i think it would suck the oxygen out of the room and donald trump could couldn't help being even

more outrageous than what he is because he's an attention hound and all the attention's going to go to the democratic side. i'm not worried about a brokered convention at all. i think that when you look going forward we've got great talent and that talent will step up and run for presidency if joe biden decides that his time to be president of the united states has ended, but remember this, only one person will decide this, and that's joe biden. >> heidi, have you not gotten a phone call yet from the white house saying you've got to circle the wagons here? >> no, no one's called me, andrew. i mean, i think -- i think this is really a personal decision, and that's why he's with his family right now. he's reading the tea leaves, and you know, you look at the polling, a lot of people that i've talked to in north dakota and i've talked to independent mainly what you would consider suburban women and said did you watch it, and they said i tried. i couldn't watch any of it. i don't like either one of them.

and i think that is -- that's the demographic they both need, and they both failed to address the concerns and the enthusiasm of that demographic. >> well, i think heidi's right, it obviously is only one person's decision. what we're seeing here is an unbelievable level of personal hubris. he must know he's not capable of being president. it's very obvious, but he wants to be president, and therefore, he's demanding that he the people tow the line and support him. you know, you can attack donald trump for being one of the most narcissistic people in america, but unfortunately joe biden's proving to be one with super hu hubris. it's damaging to our country. it's damaging to the world. we really can't afford to have this type of leadership, and we're in dangerous times. we're in dangerous times internationally. we're in dangerous times in the united states, there are massive deficits. >> hey, judd, would you answer -- we got to run but answer the question if i could

that i threw out at the beginning, which is given your feelings about the former president if there was a whitmer in place, would that change your vote? >> probably not because i think the democratic party has become so encaptured by its socialist base, i wouldn't trust them to control the government. i think the only hope for america over the next four years is probably to have a divided government so not much happens. >> we got to leave it there, but it's a longer one. heidi and judd, thank you. >> thank you. >> take care, andrew. check out the shares of chewy, the stock's jumping after keith gill, roaring kitty -- that's funny, chewy, it's a pet food thing -- disclosed a 6.6% stake in the pet products retailer finally. this i understand. this i finally understand it, it might have something to do with actual positive fundamentals since i cannot believe what i

spend on this stuff. >> pet food? or pet toys. >> we get this -- kibble is $60 for a big bag. we super charge it with this weird freeze-dried chicken. a bag of that costs $80, and it seems like i'm there every two weeks, and you know, it's like expensive. it's like expensive. >> it is. >> and you know how heavy those bags are. >> no, i don't. >> what goes in, comes out, so i have to -- that's another thing. i got to do that today as a matter of fact. >> pooper-scooper for you. >> duty calls. >> so to speak. >> all right. when we come back semifore cofounder ben smith joins us and ngssn byron donalds joins us as well. "squawk box" will be right back.

it's time. yes, the time has come for a fresh approach to dog food. everyday, more dog people are deciding it's time to quit the kibble and feed their dogs fresh food from the farmer's dog. made by vets and delivered right to your door precisely portioned for your dog's needs. it's an idea whose time has come. ♪♪

dave's company just scored the comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. high five! high five... -i'm on a call. it's 5 years of reliable, gig speed internet... five years of advanced security... five years of a great rate that won't change. yep, dave's feeling it.

yes. but it's only for a limited time. five years? -five years. introducing the comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. powering 5 years of savings. powering possibilities. welcome back to squa"squ box." the first 2024 presidential debate had extensive media

coverage, but drew the smallest viewers since the 2024 kerry/bush debate. joining us is ben smith, semafor cofounder and editor in chief. good morning to you. a collective freakout in the media about everything that's happened since thursday. i'm curious what your reaction was to the "new york times" coming out with an editorial within 24 hours, tom friedman and nick kris to have and others coming out with their own views within hours, frankly, and david rem nick over the weekend too from "the new yorker." these are sort of the establishment taking a quick position, at the same time that the donor class -- and it's unclear where the donor class sits -- have seemingly circled the wagon over the past couple of days. >> i think the media is reckoning with this unbelievable failure to do our own jobs. you know, the president of the united states probably the most important subject for media coverage in america, and so the fact that everyone was surprised that we were all surprised by

what he was like really represents this huge reporting failure, and i think, you know, outlets, the times and others did stories about his age in the context of other stories saying his age was fine. to have the president of the united states walk out on stage and seem totally unlike -- >> the mask is ben -- >> a reporting failure. >> it's not, but then -- forced to admit it. finally forced to admit it? they're a pretaurean guard for joe biden. >> i do think the white house genuinely kept him -- >> how would i know? i'm just a, a mean person? i've been saying, don't believe your eyes for six months? didn't you know? didn't you know? >> i mean -- >> honestly, watching him? >> no. i think i was surprised. i didn't think it was that bad. >> ben, ask you this, though. goes to a little information, misinformation, truth, everything else.

what people believe. is distinctly remember talking o kevin mccarthy he explicitly came out said i was in a meeting with biden, gave the whole thing and said, he is not with the program. he's lost -- he's lost it. he said it. just said -- and then, i interviewed the vice president two hours later. i played that effectively back to her. she said that's not the joe biden that i know, da, da, da-da-da. my question to you, not so much as a reporting failure. i'm a little with joe. people saw what they wanted to see and weren't willing to push. for some reason age is a complicated tapic for a lot of people. push on something, they push back. come on. being an ageist or not -- people didn't want to fully go there. >> yeah. i think that's right, and i think probably, joe, maybe a softer version of a joe was saying was that there's a

freakout in the media about donald trump that made people scared to write, but they weren't absolutely sure of but suspected about biden. i think there were gasps in the press room when he walked onstage. that means people were actually surprised. >> all this year, didn't do end of last year. he won't come out without a teleprompter. when he does, this is the performance you get. i mean -- i think there are going to be questions he can finish the term let alone run for a new one? >> the narrative the last month, you see clips of him on social media looking old. they're out of context. trump is old, too, so the debate really did a lot of that. >> the journalistic community feels gasped. do they? and does that result in much harsher and much more critical coverage? i remember, by the way a completely different kind of thing but in a business context. when enron went bankrupt 25 years ago, every journalist,

every business journalist in america felt gaslit by that company and goodness, we can't write nice stories about anybody, because maybe we'll be wrong. the question is whether that sentiment comes to biden, or not? by the way i'm not sure it is. reading coverage this morning what took place over the weekend. there's a kum ba yah kind of thing happening. >> yeah. i do think the herd mentality in the media goes both ways in that this is the only story right now they'll be all over him. the white house -- used to ignoring the "new york times." happy to shut them out. happy to ignore their endorsements. but, no. i think this is going to be a huge subject of coverage. honestly any politician over 70 suddenly under a wave of scrutiny. >> and you knew, andrew, and never said otherwise.

followed up with, yeah, i know, but, trump. six months. >> basically -- >> yeah. but, trump -- right? >> that's where we are. >> then you know a lot of people knew this. >> i think -- they, there was a denial and a sense that maybe -- i think people questioned themselves saying, well, you don't get to see him a lot. mean bay hind closed doors -- you don't know. or a bad day. something else. >> no way to prove that without having him out all the te.im speaking and taking tough questions. i don't see them doing it. >> no.

in the days following the debate several house members called for president biden to be replaced as the nominee. some house republicans even brought up the 25th amendment. joining us with where he stands congressman byron donalds. his name floated as a potential v.p. pick for donald trump. congressman good to see you again. saw you a couple wakes ago. thanks for joining us. >> of course. good to be with you. >> we just had former senator judd gregg on, and this is what he said.

and i'll let you respond and you tell me whether you agree. he said if biden stays in, the democrats lose the white house and most likely the house and the senate. he said if he does agree to exit and a younger candidate is put in, he mentioned governor whitmer. gretchen whitmer, governor, then at that point democrats could keep the white house and probably have the senate and the house. so do you agree with that and why would anyone republican be supporting the democrats removing joe biden? >> well, first of all, i'll tell you, as far as i'm concerned it doesn't matter whether it's joe biden, gretchen whitmer, kamala harris or anyone else. end of the day their agenda is the same. gretchen and gavin able to explain it better but the agenda is still terrible for the american people. still have massive open borders

marxive spending at the federal level. no decisions to curb inflation or make america energy dominant across the globe. in a lot of respects have the same fleckless foreign policy in it position we're in whether ukraine or ally israel. they might have somebody who looks better on camera but the agenda does change. that's the fundamental problem. i think no matter who they put up it won't matter, because donald trump has been president. he did a job where the country was secured. where the economy was doing very, very well, and where there was no new wars across the globe. pick who they want to. end of the day this is going to be a joe biden decision. i think the big evidengest thin overall the democrat party and the media covered this up. stories are rampant through washington, d.c. joe biden is not with us. how come that never got out? covering for him and the agenda they all want to happen through

america, which failed the american people. >> congressman, do you think, if you don't think anyone else could win, do you think that there would be a difference between -- if it was a gretchen whitmer and i don't know. the whole vice president harris situation, i'm not sure how they deal with that. i don't really have much pity for the position they're in, obviously painting themselves into the closer. i know you think donald trump is going to win but a lot of people aren't necessarily voting for joe biden or gretchen whitmer just voting against donald trump. some think a younger democrat could win, because it's anybody but trump. you don't see anything to that notion? >> well, i think that if you look at recent polling that came out around that question, doesn't really matter who democrats pick. they all lose. gretchen whitmer, the margin is wider. why i say end of the day i don't

think it matters one way or the other. the biggest concern is joe biden is president now. it's crystal clear everybody is concerned can he do that xrob four more years? the answer is, no. can he do the job four more months? that's the biggest question now. democrats decided they chose party power over doing what is right for the country. it is clear that is the case. like i said, might be able to explain it better but it doesn't matter. the agenda items will remain the same. >> do you think that the ticket will be joe biden and kamala harris, when it's all said and done, congressman, or you don't think that's a possibility? >> i'm not going to predict that. not going to predict that. that's in the hands of joe biden and kamala harris. they got to make that decision. i will say that if democrats -- if joe biden decides to step away and democrats try to step over kamala harris they'll have a bigger problem on their hands. i'll let them deal with that. i'll watch and we'll go campaign and make sure that donald

trump's is the 47th president of the united states, it does highlight sometimes you think of the vice president as sort of a, not necessarily a -- that important, but it highlights how important it is, and donald trump, i don't know when you expect that decision, and -- you never really have any comments who you think it should be, but it should be someone who can step into that role immediately, and i'm not sure they were really thinking of that, the democrats? >> well, look. when you talk abouts vice presidency or any other position it's really about judgment. can you look at information and make quality decisions? are you going to make political decisions? are you going to make ideological decisions or the right decisions? i think everybody on president trump's list have one thing in common. we look at information and make an appropriate decision for the american people. whoever he picks will work as a partner with him to put the country back on track. that's what really needs to be

decided. president trump's going to make that decision and make a great one. >> congressman donalds, thank you. appreciate it. >> thank you. >> okay. it is just after 8:00 a.m. on the east coast and you are watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. take a look at today's top stories -- first up, boeing is buying back former subsidiary spirit aerosystems for $4.7 billion in stock. airbus takes on european focused activities. struggling as an independent company since boeing spun it off back in 2005. speaking of boeing, reports say the department of justice will criminally charge the company with fraud over two fatal 737 max crashes in 2018 and 2019. thosereports say that boeing will have to choose between either pleading guilty or facing a trial. and the "financial times" says the european union will

charge facebook parent meta with violating a new set of digital rules. similar to a case against apple about a week ago with europeans continuing to come after american tech economies. they will flag its practice allowing to use it for free while having data collected or alternatively allowing them to pay to remain private. meantime check futures ahead of the opening bell of the third quarter. the dow up about 68 points. nasdaq up about 38 points. s&p 500 a little over 11 points up. and contessa brewer has a look at the pre-market movers. good morning. >> good morning to you. kick things off a check on chewy. up more than 15% in the pre-market with an s.e.c. filing revealing that a/k/a roaring kitty bought 9 million shares in the company amounting to about a 3.6% stake making gillthe third

biggest holder of the pet food ecommerce retailer. shares up about 40% this year due to better than expected earnings and automatic delivery sales. meanwhile, the darling gamestop, shares off by almost 6.5% in the pre-market. perhaps those gamestop investors don't like the fact he's picked a new darling. and after friday, a worst stock performance on record. look at them up about a half purse for nike in the pre-market. dismal guidance for 2025. half a dozen bank downgrades, questions about managementing and execute bad news for the ceo. see if shares turn around starting up this monday morning. becky? >> contessa, thank you. turn focus back to what we've been talking about. president biden's campaign. highlighting an influx of small donor donations late last week including after the president's widely criticized debate performance's but that

performance is still worrying many in the party establishment. joining us to talk about what may be happening is roger altman. evercore senior founder and chairman and former deputy treasury secretary under president bill clinton, and roger, thank you for being here this morning >> good morning, becky. >> there's a lot of stories that are out there kind of swirling about what happens. but as somebody who has been through campaigns time and time again, and who sees what's happening here with the donor class as well, how would you suggest the party move forward from this point? >> well, this is a tough situation. and in many respects, i think it's historically unprecedented. at the moment, i don't see any indication, and i'm not, becky, in the councils of war, but i see no indication that president biden is prepared to step aside.

and i think there's an argument for his taking this a bit slow, by that i mean taking his time, and trying, perhaps, through a news conference, to restore confidence and demonstrate, if he can, that the biden we saw on thursday night is not the day in, day out joe biden. i don't have any idea if he will do that or not, but i think that's something that would be logical to try to do and do so this week. >> yeah. i'm with you in that we have not seen this in the past. people can say bad debates before, that, you know, ronald reagan faltered in his first debate with mondale. i went back and watched that over the weekend. that was -- >> i did, too. >> october 7th of 1984. it was nothing like what we saw here. these are questions raised -- not even about age but about mental competence, and the idea

that we have not seen a press conference from biden this entire year and even well into last year we hadn't seen one. just the idea of even if he came out with a news conference as you suggest, i don't know that would assuage the concerns that there are about whether he can do this job on a daily basis. >> hard to tell, but if he did -- if he did hold a press conference and if he did conduct himself well, and i've seen him conduct himself well in recent weeks. in private. i think that would allay a lot of concerns. whether it would allay them all, i don't know. but it would be a wise thing to try it, if -- in my view. >> roger, we've even seen it in print. that it says, the biden al

oligarchy is meeting to decide what to do. is there an oligarchy? five or six people running things and has it been that way all along and is he basically just a figurehead? is that okay to run, to run the country like that? i mean, totally frank, is that possible? >> well, i find that term, joe, oligarchy amusing. anyone who has spent time with joe biden knows that he's not a figurehead. he's actually quite a decisive guy, in my experience. i think what you're referring to is that close-knit team of advisers, and we all know who they are, ron, steve, anita and so forth, weren't around president biden for a very long time and on whom he relies. as to whether he's running the government and he isn't, the answer's, no. the legislation passed, inflation reduction,

infrastructure bill and so forth, his hand in all of that was the decisive one. not theirs. so, no. he's president. they're not. >> roger, you say that you've been with him and seen him in a different light, and, you know, we've heard people say that over time. especially when others -- talking about kevin mccarthy and others came out and said he isn't with the program. the question, i guess is, what do you see others don't? also, is it acceptable if there are bad days? is that -- is that something that you think the american public should accept, recognizes there are going to be super crises or super-important days. if you have bad day on a super crises and have to be able to perform and can't, that's a problem? >> well, andrew, let me be clear on one thing. all i meant to say was, the most

recent time when i saw president biden, which was in a meeting with business leaders about five or six weeks ago, he was on his game. that's all i'm trying to say. that one 90-minute discussion. as to your second question. look, there's a difference between having a bad day and cognizant decline. and president biden, as i suggested at the beginning here, needs to go out and demonstrate that it was the former and is not the latter. and -- i think that's the acid test. >> roger, quickly. you think the only resolution, if the president were to decide not to run again, would be taken care of at the convention? >> well, i think people are underestimating, becky -- i just lived to the conversation with former senator gregg and -- also with congressman donalds what he

had to say. i think people are underestimating the difficulty of, that the, the post withdrawal process if president biden were to withdraw. what would happen, i think, would be a free for all with a number of contenders, poor perfectly good reasons jumping in. all primaries are over. therefore, that could only be resolved at the convention, which is about two months, a little more than that, before the general election. so someone would prevail at the convention, and i think it would be hotly contested, and that person would have, give or take, two months to mount an effective national campaign. that person would never have run a national race before. unless it were kamala harris in terms of her serving as biden's running mate in 2020. and that's a tall order. i think they have to be a real optimist to think that would really work out well. it could.

of course it could, but it's hard. because there would be so little time for that individual who prevailed at the convention to then turn around, become a well-regarded household name, mount the huge organizational effort necessary to effectively run a national campaign, and, of course to have the support. that's tough. >> thank you, roger. appreciate your candid assessment. >> pleasure. coming up former s.e.c. chair jay clayton will help us make some sense of the critic of end of term supreme court decisions. that could be kind of the elephant in the room at 10:00 a.m. i mean -- we had this news cycle, could get off this news cycle quickly dependin ing on what happens. including a big one regarding the agency and among others. stay tuned.

you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc.

welcome back to "squawk box." joining us now on the set former chairman of the s.e.c., jay clate unalso contributing to cnbc. talking a rulings from last week and also this week and start with the debate and what the implications of it are. we've gone back and forth whether another nominee is going to emerge, but my question to you is somebody who was part of the former trump administration sort of thinking about sort of what this means for the republican side is, if in fact another nominee were to emerge is that better or worse for trump's candidacy here? >> let me say, i think another nominee is going to emerge. >> you do? >> let me put it in a context that i think people on this program understand. it's imperfect but illuminating. imagine if a ceo gave that performance in an earnings call? the board of directors -- >> pull him off. >> pull him off. go to the next level of

analysis. you're a board of directors. you have a problem like that. years in advance. at least months in advance, you have tohave a succession plan. you always have to have a succession plan. what do we have here? >> nothing. >> nothing. >> no plan b. >> saying that for the past couple years. >> imagine if a board of directors said -- >> i don't disagree. except argue plan b is half a dozen -- potential nominees -- governors, others in the democratic party maybe could take the place. the question i'm asking is slightly different, which is what you think that would do to the overall election and to the extent there were people out there, voters, who say, you know what? bill ackman in this potential category, maybe not. for a long time saying critical of biden with hope a third candidate, or another candidate in the democratic party would emerge. he wasn't necessarily in love with the former president.

he is now, appears, to have switched, saying he is for the former president. the question is, if another person came in to replace biden in this sort of a.b. test peter thiel talks about. all of a sudden a. is a different human. now the whole thing is scrambled? >> so, of course, you will be changing the context. you change the person, you change the context. absolutely. i think the question for the american people, and look, i -- here's what i think. why do i think it's going to change out? because the american people are smart and the market is the american people. just like in the ceo situation, the market will tell them that they have to change. >> you just heard how difficult it is. that you will then have a person never run a national election, two months to try to run it. you figure this is just a -- a hail mary sort of pass? figure they can't win otherwise so give it a -- >> i have no idea what's going on but you usually give somebody in a position of authority to

come to the conclusion on their own. my hope of what's happening is, we're giving joe biden, who deserves -- deserves a lot for his public service. when the time comes for the decision. >> the interesting part, that he, won the debate but telling me then the whole dynamic changes you've lost the war. >> go back to again what i, the context i know. which is the corporate context. you've built a strategy around one set of facts. we are going to scramble the eggs. right? and the trump campaign will have to build a new strategy depending on how this unfolds and who falls into that position. what you're -- what you're seeing, i think, is a strategy around border, economy -- inflation. right? and -- if i'm -- look, we were just talking off-air, interesting thing. which is if you look at the lineup of perspective haves, i

think every person could be president tomorrow. on the republican side. incredible strength, the republicans have, going into this period of uncertainty. whether it's burgum, youngkin, scott, rubio. every one american people would be comfort with. >> and put your lawyer hat on here. we may hear from the supreme court about this immunity decision on -- >> we will hear. >> will hear about president trump. how do you think that plays in the american public on either side of how you think that they land? >> okay. this -- the supreme court's performance over the past month has been something we should all be proud of. >> i agree. >> the supreme court has restored what the founders envisioned. which was three branches of government that were intentioned, but that would be accountable. the supreme court --

>> amy coney barrett taking the opposite side of ketanji -- that's not josh shapiro. >> they have done an absolutely -- the administrative state had gone way beyond any kind of thought of its power. this is a really, also a very interesting issue. the supreme court. of course, some presidents have some level of immunity. you have to. right? of course there are limits on that. this is the first time they're going to really reach out and try to define that in the context of a specific facts and circumstances. what i would say to the american people, and this is, look at how well-reasoned this is going to be. i have no idea what they're going to do but the way, barrett on one side. nine people who are going to bring a lot of wisdom to this decision, because we can't constrain future presidents! just because some people don't like donald trump doesn't mean you can constrain future presidents. >> somebody who's in the business, let me ask you, how do you feel -- i think there are

americans, maybe you say on the democratic side, who look at a clarence thomas, look at an alito and say, there's a problem. there's corruption in the system. if, you know, clarence thomas is effectively taking money from people and not disclosing it. ultimately disclosed it but years after only after pressure from the state, talking about having some value in the world. this alito situation with his wife and the flags upside-down and everything else. just curious, because -- i know you just said, look at these decisions and how proper they were, and then there are people who look and say, these people, maybe making decision in this particular moment but other things are completely improper. y you agree they're improper, right? >> any time you have a quid pro pro. which we talk about all the time. >> in the business context, these people would be fired. be honest.

the clarence thomas case you had an employ taking money on the side without disclosing that you would fire that employee. you don't think? >> andrew, depends on the context. no, no, no. we have an employee -- >> as a journalist, if i was taking money from people i was covering, i would be fired, and rightly so. >> if you have a best friend from high school or college, and -- >> i wouldn't cover them. then i wouldn't cover them! >> let's go to this. is there any indication that any of the justices go across the board has deviated from their articulateds judicial philosophy in any of these cases? somebody brings to me, know what -- >> and same for biden and um a the money flowing from ukraine and china. that, okay. yeah. his brother and his son and everybody got rich, but -- it never caused joe biden to do

something different than he would have normally done. that's the same excuse here. you don't have much of a problem with all that influence peddling in the white house. >> and all -- >> let me -- let's -- >> never brought up -- >> agree with you on something. transparency is absolutely important. those rules in the supreme court needed to change. the rules in congress need to change. i've been on this program advocating time and again for rules around trading. let congresspeople trade one time a year. absent hardships eliminating all this. still fully invested, participate in the prosperity of america, but know what? >> how do we know -- i think we talked about in that position. talked to gensler about that, nobody in the s.e.c. wants to do it because congress is the hand that feeds the budget of the s.e.c. then you have to -- wait for congress to do it to themselves and they're never going to do

it. >> not changing much. my view, congress should pass just like supreme court passed its only won't on transparency. you have a window. readjust your portfolio, an sent that apply for a hardship exemption. get ouch the business of trading. >> jay clayton. we'll see what happens over the latter. last week, get to those decisions as well. thank you. coming up, a call to prevent china from going to the same economic playbook used in the past when in trouble. joins by the ranking member of the house china select committee. and then the key points that former counsel of economic advisors, kevin hassett. you don't want to miss that. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc.

it's hard to run a business on your own. make it easier on yourself. with shopify, you can have your inventory, payments, and customers in sync across all the places you sell. start your journey with a free trial today. the all new godaddy airo helps you get your business online in minutes with the power of ai... ...with a perfect name, a great logo, and a beautiful website. just start with a domain, a few clicks, and you're in business. make now the future at godaddy.com/airo ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ and you're in business.

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

we were watching euro and french stocks showing a strong reaction in elections yesterday. analysts say left wing and centrist parties are scrambling to try to block the rival french national rally from winning the ongoing parliamentary contest. french stocks thought to have rallied on relief that the right wing's current showing wasn't even strong, or the second round of voting takes place next weekend. so thinking, over there for the olympics i was going to try to vote over there. we can do it here basically. you need an i.d. over there? >> i'm sure. >> you know what? i don't mind speaking french -- couldn't even ask, "where's voting booth" i don't think. >> excuse me. where's the louvre? >> one time i did say that. like -- no. had to go to the bathroom.

i'm like -- yeah. >> where's the loo? >> bathroom, every word, like, what? what? what? finally i think t otoi-hlet, bu was too late. when we come back, the aftermath of the democrats and the debate. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc.

(♪♪) ♪ well i was raised by careful hands ♪ ♪ yeah, they made me who i am ♪ ♪ so i'm off to see... ♪ we invent them. we design them. we build them. and one day, we have to let them soar. ♪ i'm always coming home ♪

in a "newsweek" op ed warning a struggle, exporting overproduced goods at artificially low prices. illinois democratic congressman raja krishnamoorthi writes we are in a pivotal moment in which china depends on the rest of the world capitulating over this. joining us now, talk about what

you laid out in your op-ed. seen it before from china, but you say it's unprecedented in the scale and scope of what they are undertaking this time around. do you want to explain? >> sure. thank you for attention to this. especially the chinese economy is tanking right now and xi jinping leader of the chinese communist party decided to reinvaguerate the chinese economy double down on an old chinese playbook for economic reform, so to speak. which is overproducing goods, foreign excess of what internal demand requires and then exporting the surplus to other countries at a price designed to undercut the competition and really destroy it. so he's doing this across a range of goods, including goods in strategic sectors they have decided they want to dominate everything from semiconductors to ship building to drones and

so forth. >> i think some numbers jump out i've heard -- janet yellen talked about this, secretary of the treasury -- all money previously spent on infrastructure, funneled into this. numbers back it up. four years ago $83 billion, skyrocketed to $670 billion. numbers coming from the bank of china? >> yeah. these are astronomical numbers. just take one example, which we've highlighted in our hearing the other day. ship building. essentially, china is building 359 new ships for every 1 ship that the united states builds. and that points out two problems. one is they are building far more ships than their internal demand requires, but secondly, the u.s. has seeded leadership in global ship building and that impacts our national security as

well. so we have to fix both of those issues. >> look at what we've allowed to happen in areas like semiconductors and manufacture of medical supplies, and you understand how this could be a problem. we've run into serious issues recently with this. what's the way to solve this, though? are you talking about tariffs that you make on all of these products that are coming? not just out of china, but if china transports them to mexico, an easy way to get to here? >> part is tariffs. both the trump and biden administration pursued. part of it is also working with our partners, friends and allies to boost our own capacity for manufacturing the items at issue. just one example. our semiconductor chips. the united states used to be a leading power in manufacturing these chips, but we lost our edge in manufacturing them a

long time ago, and ever since the pandemic when we recognized that supply chain shortages were driven in part by these shortages of chips, we have enacted the chips and science act, thanks to president biden and congress, on a bipartisan basis, and now we're seeing a renaissance in the -- in the announcement of chip factories throughout the country, and so that's going to be a real help going forward. >> if you talk to, let's say, the biotech industry, they will say there's no way to manufacture biotech medicines here in the united states. that that's kind of another issue we've seeded. they've suggested doing something like a chips act for biotech where you can manufacture those things here, but seems to me like you run out of money at some point. how do you prioritize what you do? whether that be steel, ship building, whether it's household appliances, biotech issues?

how do you figure out what we have the money for, what we don't, and how you rank that in order? >> sure. i think in certain area, certain strategic areas such as chips or biotech, i think the government should assist to some degree whether it's in the form of, for instance, those tax credits and other investments in the chips act or in the form of government purchasing, in the case of biotech. i think the government should help. with regard to consumer goods, with regard to certain food products and other items, i don't think the government should necessarily step in. all of that being said, i do think that an examination of all of these industries to see where we are competitive, and where we are seeding leadership and where the chinese may become the sole source and then exert coercive practices to get us to do things we might not otherwise do, is really necessary now. >> is this a bipartisan issue in congress? >> oh, absolutely.

i mean, this is something that people on both sides of the aisle agree and are tackling right now. >> congressman krishnamoorthi, thank you. >> thank you. up next, focusing on the potential economic policies in another trump administration? or -- also contrast it to another biden administration -- or whomever. kevin hassett will join us. stay tuned. you're wchating "squawk box" on cnbc.

all right, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box." futures this morning are slightly higher on this first trading day, second half of the year. dow up by 10 points. s&p by 7. nasdaq up close to 30. it is first day of the third quarter for first half of the year. s&p clocked a gain 14.5% on pace for its fifth positive year out

of the last six. it gained about 4% just in the second quarter. the dow was down by 1.7% second quarter, and the nasdaq was up by more nan 8% from that quarter. it's up 18% so far for the year to date. aside from lobbing a myriad of personal attacks at each other, president biden and former president trump spent last week's debate laying out what they'd do for the country economically if given another term. joining us to talk about the different plans, hoover institution distinguished visiting fellow kevin hassett. he served as a senior counselor to president trump in the white house and chairman of the council of economic advisors. how you doing, kevin? >> good morning, joe. >> is it too implicit to say we got two guys. one's going to blow out the deficit spending like a drunken sailor on social programs,

"investments" whatever and the other blow out the deficit with tax cuts. either way, headed to the same place. age-old republican versus democratic strategies? >> i think it's inaccurate. i agree that joe biden doesn't seem to have much of a plan on reducing spending, and recall, joe, spending right now is about $1 trillion higher than we thought it would be looking ahead from 2019 before covid. so what biden and democrats have done, took covid spending and decided to use it on other stuff. what that does for a potential new occupant in the white house, creating an enormous policy opportunity, because you have almost $10 trillion over ten years of spurneding to reduce and then do other stuff with that. like save social security and extend the trump tax cuts. and finally on the biden side, don't forget he says he wants to renew the trump tax cuts for people making less than $400,000 a year. in terms of the "cost" of tax cuts, before you get to dynamic

scoring joe biden wants to renew most of them. most of the costs is things like the child credit and stuff for people that, that go to people in the lower class. >> the old fedex commercial. donald trump likes tariffs, but we like tariffs, because i said it this way. our tariffs are targeted. his -- you know? they're both, tariffs from both but i think there would be more if you put a tariff on everything from donald trump. wouldn't you? >> yeah. i think that's still a work in progress, but what i expect is very likely to happen if there's a reconciliation bill next year is it will include something like president trump's idea of a reciprocal tariff act. a company, country out there with big tariffs on us, we match those tariffs. no tariffs on us, then maybe we don't. but he's talked about -- has talked about it across the board, across the board tariff

but things being more reciprocal. >> it's really -- just seen this movie again and again and again. so to -- to handle the, the build-up debt that we have, we're going to need growth. i don't see it any other way. >> yeah. >> do you think that -- if trump were to be -- to win back the presidency and would cut a lot of the regulations that we've seen layered on the economy during the biden years, and do you think that trying to stimulate business with tax cuts or -- however he wants to do it, do you think that would be the way for growth? because democrats think the way that you engender growth is through "investment" in infrastructure, in chips and the transition into green energy. they think you got to spend to, to reap rewards. which way works? does either way work? >> it's all about demand and supply, as you know, joe.

what you have to do is you have to feed supply as well as demand. what the democrats have been doing is spending on stuff, but also attacking supply with higher taxes and higher regulation. i think the top priority for the tax bill next year should be to return the expensing measures which are expiring. buy a machine you get to expense it. like really, really important for driving up supply. in fact, equipment investment last year in the u.s. was negative. in part because of expiring expensing. the second thing, we have a small business 199a deduction allowing small businesses to get benefit from lower corporate rate. that's expiring, too. a couple rifle shots right at destroying supply on the tax code side, and then joe biden is launching new economically significant regulations that will double the rate of president obama, the previous record holder. that would stop in its tracks

the minute president trump ccca in the white house. >> kevin, a couple different narr narratives, for a second focus on if trump did win. some people say 44 out of 50 of his former people that were in his administration would never work for him again and wouldn't vote for him. other people are surprised, and thinking, you know, last week we saw someone say, bill ackman said i'm shocked at the quality people that would be willing to serve in the next trump administration. would you serve? do you think he can put together a top-notch team? >> right. yeah. oh, he absolute can, joe, and, yes. if the president were to ask me i'd certain take it seriously the opportunity to work with him again. i really enjoyed it before. i'd like to do it again. if the right job comes along. the fact is that if you look at who's around the president now, it's pretty much the same people

that were around him in the last year or two. what happens at all white houses in the beginning a shaking out. you find the people that do the job the way the president likes and the people that don't. the president fired a lot of people and ended up with a team he really those people are still lined up at helping him out as much as they can, and there's some new people coming aboard like doug burnham, so i think it would be a very strong team should he get back to the white house. >> what do you think happens with the fed? we've seen all the scuttlebutt that he wants it as an arm of the white house and wants to be -- maybe wants to be on the fed himself. maybe be president of the united states and jay powell at the same time. >> i can remember -- you remember this, joe. there was some discussion about firing jay powell, and one day out in front of the white house, i came out and said we had had a

meeting with the president and discussed it, and there's no way the president's going to fire jay powell. the president respects the independence of the fed. the day i did that, the dow wednesday up a thousand points, and that night, the president called me up bsand said, we've t to put you on tv every day. that story in the wal"the wall journal," none of us could figure out where that story came from, so i don't think that was true about the president wanting to eliminate the -- >> there's no one -- what was it, andrew? remember? actual, like, cabal that had formulated that or something of his advisors, it said. you think they made it up? you think that was made-up, kevin? >> well, you know, one of the things that happens is that people want to seem important, and so they say that they're talking to the guy, and maybe they said hi to him on the golf course or something. but no. you know, absolutely not. we were unable to track down the

source of that story. >> when's the last time you spoke to president trump? former president trump? >> about a couple weeks ago. >> couple weeks ago? so, you figure you'll be doing something? >> excuse me? >> you figure you'll be doing something if he were to win re-election? >> i'm not sure. again, we have to see what happens, but i am, of course, willing to serve my country. >> all right, kevin. thank you. >> bye-bye. coming up, the third quarter and beyond. we're going to talk markets ahead of the first opening bell of the second half of the year. "squawk box" returns right after is. business. it's not a nine-to-five proposition. it's all day and into the night. it's all the things that keep this world turning. it's the go-tos that keep us going. the places we cheer. trust. hang out. and check in. they all choose the advanced network solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business.

powering more businesses than anyone. powering possibilities. with powerful, easy-to-use tools, power e*trade makes complex trading easier. react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder

that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity. e*trade from morgan stanley

welcome back to "squawk box." just a half an hour until the first opening bell of the third quarter. joining us right now is senior u.s. equity strategist at ubs. good morning to you. so, we're into the second half here. what are you expecting, and what are you doing? >> yeah, you know, we expect the market to remain in an up trend in the second half of the year, of course, not to the magnitude we saw in the first half of the year, the over 14%, but what's really needed to be able to drive this market high is going to be the earnings season.

the fact is that valuation, as we know, is really stretched. as we head into the upcoming earnings season, expectations are high versus the first quarter because the forward estimates has remained resilience coming into this quarter but we think with better economic growth, we're seeing that atlanta gdp now and the fact we have had a pretty robust a.i. investment cycle, that should be enough for companies to meet those higher expectations. >> how much of your thesis is premised on a rate cut in this calendar year? >> you know, our expectation is two rate cuts. however, that does not mean that the market needs that to move higher. the market is already showing that to be the case in the first half of the year. it's really the earnings that's going to drive it. but our expectation is two cuts starting in september. we think that the economy is pointing towards a soft landing when you look at the upward trend in unemployment, as well as the initial jobless claims.

of course, core pce was quite encouraging. we're on that disinflation path, and we do think that the fed will have enough data by the time we get to september to be able to start cutting interest rates. >> the election, does it have any relevance or bearing on anything you just said? >> the election, of course, we're watching it, but we've been advising clients not to make any major shifts in their asset allocation due to the looming election. we expect volatility to pick up. it typically does every election cycle. we're seeing fixed futures contracts around the november elections. what we are watching for, of course, is the rhetoric around tariffs. we know that former president trump has proposed a 10% across the board and 60% on imports coming from china. that has implications for companies, as well as inflation. it could help some of the sectors that are more exposed to competition for china, but at the same time, it would be a headwind for those with supply chains abroad.

we're also, uryou know, watchin for corporate taxes. we know that president biden has proposed an increase in the corporate tax rate to the high 20% range, and so that obviously has implications for corporate earnings. those are the things we're keeping an eye on but not making any major shifts. >> if you could pick one stock right now, what would you buy? >> i can't comment on stock. however, i can comment on sectors. we continue to like tech. we are definitely believers of the a.i. story. we think there's a lot more to go and that we think that by the time you get to 2027, this could be an over $1 trillion revenue opportunity across the stock, so that includes enablers like semis, the intelligence layers, cloud providers, as well as the application layer. >> okay. nadia, i want to thank you. appreciate it. >> thank you. before we go, i just have one -- i just realized we have not talked about this front page story in "the wall street journal" in davos all morning. >> yeah. >> how did we get three hours

through without even mentioning? >> i didn't read the whole thing. just the typical -- got rid of anyone over 50, even though he was 100. klaus. >> what i couldn't tell about the -- >> this is news to you? >> it seems like there's a half a dozen examples over the course of 30 years, so there's part of me that was, like, well, maybe that's how life is. and then there's part of me that was, like, well, maybe this is much worse. >> "the journal" talked to a lot of people in this. they said that schwab didn't step down from his position until after they had reached out originally to get verification. >> he really said anyone over 50's gone? >> according to this. >> they report that. of course, they say that -- >> the kind of drivel -- the kind of drivel that they push at that -- it doesn't surprise me. you need clueless younger people. to be able to say some of that stuff -- >> no, no, no. >> what? to say some of that stuff with a straight face, you got, like -- >> i'll say it with a straight

face. >> i rest my case. let's take a quick look at the markets. it is the first trading day of the second half of the year of the third quarter. you're going to see right now there are green arrows across the board, and by the way, both the s&p 500 and nasdaq closed at new highs once again on friday. you can see the nasdaq indicated up another 37 points this morning. right now, it's time for "squawk on the street." we'll see you later. ♪ good monday morning, and welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm david faber with leslie picker and mike santoli live from post nine at the new york stock exchange. jim and carl have the morning off. let's give you a look at futures as we get ready to start the second half of the year. man, half of 2024 is already gone. going by very fast. let's get to our road map. it doesn't start with, of course, big tech, which was the big driver of stocks for the first half of the year. but one question, can nvidia and