let's take a quick look at the markets. it is the first trading day of the second half of the year of the third quarter. you're going to see right now there are green arrows across the board, and by the way, both the s&p 500 and nasdaq closed at new highs once again on friday. you can see the nasdaq indicated up another 37 points this morning. right now, it's time for "squawk on the street." we'll see you later. ♪ good monday morning, and welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm david faber with leslie picker and mike santoli live from post nine at the new york stock exchange. jim and carl have the morning off. let's give you a look at futures as we get ready to start the second half of the year. man, half of 2024 is already gone. going by very fast. let's get to our road map. it doesn't start with, of course, big tech, which was the big driver of stocks for the first half of the year. but one question, can nvidia and

a.i. excitement fuel further gains as we get under way for the second half? plus, boeing agreeing to buy its supplier, spirit aerosystems, in a $4.7 billion deal. and meme trader roaring kitty adding fuel to another big stock move. chewy shares surging as keith gill reveals a more than 6% stake. let's start with the markets. of course, we kick off the second half of the year. i was not here for the last two weeks of that first half. i can't say that i'm sorry i wasn't. but of course, following, mike, all the ups and downs, in particular, some of that bit of a selloff in nvidia and the like. >> yep. >> but the talk has been and will continue to be much of the same, i would assume, in terms of the power of a.i., what that will mean for these biggest of big companies that we follow so closely. >> sure. we held it together somehow. so did the market with your -- with you gone, david, but it really is one of the better halves of a year, 15%-plus total

return for the s&p, per unit of volatility. the extent of the biggest pullback was 5.5%. so, yes. a lot of that was due to the not just technology but i would call it just the quality mega cap sector of the market, the quality s&p 500 etf up more than the s&p this year, up 16%. i wouldn't say it's been only that, though. it's not as if tech is kind of throwing a shutout against the rest of the market. the equal weighted s&p is up 4%. that's no big deal, but it's a 9% annual compounded rate, so it's not as if it's completely being left behind. the other things i would note, the cyclical parts of the market are hanging in there against the defensive part. if the market were narrow and it was the defensive type sectors that only benefit from a poor economy that were leading, that would be a little bit more of an issue. i do think the seasonal effects are on everybody's lips this morning in terms of the first two weeks of july being among the strongest of the year, historically, and then also what

happens after you have a big up first half. and usually you get upside buys to the follow through. i will say the final two weeks of june were supposed to be bad, based on history, and that didn't happen. i don't know how much you refer to the sneasonals, or say, it's just a strong market. earnings hurdle is a big question. how high is the hurdle for earnings? expected to be close to 10% with the standard beat rate, and you have seen some stocks get punished like micron last week when they were slightly less than completely optimistic. and finally, the yolk move. we finished on a high. everything was at a record, and then treasury yields crept up toward 4.5% on the ten-year and then beyond, and we had that old debate of, can the economy handle it? we have seen, since especially the debate on thursday, yields going up and also global yields are pushing a little bit higher. not alarming but something that i think might get the market's attention at some point. >> it feels like an inflection point. there was a piece which talked

about how alpha generation and performances really stagnated in recent weeks, and it's created this dynamic of kind of what's next for portfolio construction and this idea of, do -- is now the time to really be truly diversifying away from some of the key winners? it goes into this dynamic of breadth versus the narrowness that we've seen, and is now the time to mix things up, or do you risk being left behind because the strong momentum-based winners of the first half, if you weren't in those, that was that "journal" piece that quoted a portfolio manager who happened to not be in nvidia, and he said that every day, it is like getting a root canal without novocain. and you know, you kind of think about this idea of taking nvidia off the table right here. >> although, to your point, mike, if you -- equal weighted s&p, let's call it, annualizes at almost 9% gain. most people would take that. obviously, you're going to lag, though, if you don't own nvidia, for example. >> it's exactly how you frame

it. is it, i need to keep pace or beat this index, and therefore i can't? or is it unnerving -- it is to a lot of people that the aggregate dollar amount of value being added is so lopsided toward a handful of companies. so, it's like a third of the -- of the aggregate market feign is just nvidia. that doesn't seem -- that doesn't feel right to me. >> it's something worth pausing on. it is stunning. i don't know that you have the historical references, but i can't imagine we've ever seen that. >> i don't think so. certainly not this scale. there's always been the hot secular growth stock that was up a couple hundred percent in a year, but it usually isn't one of the biggest. i keep saying, we are in a market that the defensive, the quality, the faster growth, the most reliable earnings home, all that stuff is represented by the same relatively small subset of stocks, so therefore, you have all these multiple reasons to buy them. what's interesting, too, leslie, is that because the surface of the market has been so calm,

very low volatility at the s&p level, it's because of this divergence underneath, and so hedge funds and many other traders are saying, we're just going to bet on that continued dispersion and low volatility. and that's a very popular trade right now. you don't have to get into the weeds of it, except to say, index level, calm. under the surface, you have slightly more volatility and kind of divergence among stocks, and there's a way to capitalize on that. and it seems like it's become pretty popular, and it's fine until it gets turned upside down by a market that responds to some kind of stress and everything moves at once. >> another thing, too, we talk about seasonality. this is a low liquidity week, given it's july, but as we move ahead, the presidential election becomes more in focus. a lot of people have said that kind of in those years, that can create an additional spurring of volatility. and then, earnings expectations, as you mentioned, and david kostin had a note out about this, that it's the -- the highest earnings bar in almost three years for 2q, just given

the expectations, single stock analysts predicting profits at s&p 500 firms to ride 9% in the april to -- through june period. >> and the estimates were not revised down over the course of the quarter, as usually happens, so that's a positive sign in the sense that people think they have visibility into these pretty good growth stories. but it does not sort of reset the hurdle lower as often happens by the end of the quarter. so, we'll see by the end of the week. while it is a low-liquidity week, that can work in both directions. preholiday trading tends to have a little bit of an upward drift. >> just in terms of historical references, mike, you may have already mentioned this, but first half versus second half and what it does imply. >> something like better than 75% -- after you've been up big in the first half, let's call it 10 or 15%, you are up in the subsequent six months. that's a little bit better than t the historical average of just all years, and the actual returns, medium returns, are, like, the high single digits or

close to 10%. this is all depending on how you slice it and what time period you cover. i will say, though, the three months, like from here through the end of the third quarter, are a little choppier. in other words, you've made a lot of those gains in the latter half of the year. we know the cadence. it usually is -- certainly, last year, we peaked in late july and then had a proper correction in the fall, cthen rebounded. so, something like that wouldn't be surprising but that's the occasion the almanac says we should expect. >> we do have an election too. >> exactly. and i think this is, i believe, the best first half of an election year. you have to go back really far to find a better one than this. let's move on to a little m&a this morning. boeing finally getting that deal done to buy its supplier, spirit aerosystems. valued about $4.7 billion. there's actually a collar that are preserve that value down to 149, i believe, on boeing's

stock price. the commercial jet maker is gra grappling with safety issues. phil lebeau joins us on the deal. we've been waiting some time. >> four months ago is when boeing said, we're interested in buying spirit, and a lot of people thought it would come together quickly. there's a big component of this that involves airbus. we'll talk about that in a little bit. here's how the deal is structured. boeing will be buying roughly 80% of spirit aerosystems, including three plants in the u.s. we'll talk about the most important one in just a little bit. airbus gets most of the remaining 20%, including spirit aerosystems plants in the u.s. and in ireland. the most important plant, the one that gets the most attention when it comes to spirit aerosystems is in wichita, kansas. that's where they build the 737 max fuselage. boeing wanted to buy that plant and all of spirit so it has better quality controls because so many of the problems that

have hurt boeing over the last couple years, many of them originated at the facilities in wichita, as well as the other spirit facilities. boeing now believes they can improve quality control as you take a look at shares of boeing and spirit. year to date, actually, over the last year, keep in mind that boeing is also assuming $3.5 billion of spirit aerosystems' debt, and the deal is expected to close in the middle of 2025. so, a so, about a year from now, which means a lot of people in the market will be pivoting to the next big story involving boeing, which is, who will replace dave calhoun, the ceo of boeing? he has already said he's resigning at the end of this year. a lot of focus will be on pat shanahan, the current ceo of spirit aerosystems, worked for many years, was a high-ranking executive, well regarded at boeing, and many people have said, is he possibly the next ceo? he's widely believed to be in consideration. whether or not we get some type of indication about ceo search

over the next several weeks, once that remains to be seen. finally, take a look at shares of airbus. i mentioned that there's a component of this involving airbus where they get just under 20% of spirit. they're being paid to take those operations that -- where spirit was building parts for airbus, $559 million. again, the deal is finally done, or at least it's done in principle. we'll see how it shakes out over the next year. it's going to take about a year to be finalized, guys. >> yeah. and as i pointed out, a bit of a complex deal in the sense of, it's all stock, as you well know, and it's got this collar that i pointed out earlier, so you get 0.25 at the bottom of the collar, 0.18 at the top. if the stock runs beyond, i think it's $206.94, and then you get -- you stay at 0.18, but you gain value and conversely, you lose it below $149. boeing shares, obviously, at

$182, so that would be a long way to go to drop, not that we haven't seen it. what are you hearing on beyond what you shared? i mean, i guess steve mollen cough is monitoring. >> there has been speculation they might be moving to a point where the search will take up a little bit more momentum. now that they've got this out of the way, theoretically, the doj case might be to a point where there is some resolution. there were reports over the weekend that the doj, after meeting with the families of victims of the two 737 max crashes, told the families, look, we want them to plead guilty overall, basically extend deferred prosecution agreement. families aren't happy with that. they want a much harsher penalty for boeing, and they have until july 7th, david, which is one week from yesterday to make some type of a decision, boeing does, or the doj does, and we'll see what boeing says here. i mean, boeing could come back

and say, no, we're not going to plead guilty for a variety of reasons. does it mean they can't bid on contracts if there's a guilty plea? that's a big unknown. there's more negotiations going on this week between the doj and boeing. that's the next big one. once that gets through, then i think you're going to start to see real momentum pick up in terms of the ceo search. >> yeah. all right, well, we know you'll be following that closely. phil, thank you. phil lebeau. coming up here, the supreme court will be in focus. we're going to get its decision on former president trump's immunity claim that's expected in the next hour. plus, tomorrow at the ecb forum in central portugal, sara eisen is going to sit down with fed chair jerome powell, ec president christine lagarde, and the head of brazil's central bank as well. that is a program you're not going to want to miss. and it will be right here on "squawk on the street."

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welcome back. in today's sector sort, let's take a look at the top-performing sectors for the first half of the year. not surprisingly, tech. that was the dominant one thanks to the a.i. rally. information technology surging by almost 28% with communication services posting a 26% gain. financials rounding out the top three, up 9.25% for the first half of the year. >> financial's doing not too bad there. >> holding their own. >> nonbank financials a lot of it. >> what's in the telecom -- communication services? >> netflix. >> yeah. that's probably why. let's talk a bit about the supreme court. it is about to wrap up its decision or all the decisions

for this term. a ruling on former president tr trump's absolute immunity claim expected to be revealed. eamon javers following it closely. >> we're about 45 minutes away. we expect a blockbuster day at the supreme court here. today is the last day of the session. we do expect decisions on all the cases that are remaining now. the court will finally rule on former president donald trump's claim of immunity from prosecution for at least some of his actions in seeking to overturn the 2020 election. even before a decision is rendered, though, the court's handling of this case has been controversial, because it failed to rule on an exatpedited basis. the trial, remember, was supposed to begin on march 4th, and also remember, trump has been charged here with four counts for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, and the january 6th, 2021, attack on the u.s. capitol.

he's charged with conspiring to defraud the united states, corru corruptly obstructing an official proceeding and conspiring against the right of americans to vote. he pled not guilty to all of that. trump's immunity claim was rejected by the lower courts, which is why he and his legal team have taken it to the supreme court. it could be a favorable venue for the former president with three justices that trump himself appointed to the supreme court. special counsel jack smith argues presidential immunity goes against just about everything the founding fathers wanted and would raise american presidents above the law, but trump himself took to social media yesterday urging the court to do as he asked, writing, "in part, without presidential immunity, the president of the united states literally could not function." we expect rulings on cases involving social media companies and challenges to federal rule making so there will be other

headlines starting at the top of the hour. >> what does this ruling mean as it pertains to the campaign season for trump? both from a dollars standpoint, as well as a time management standpoint? >> well, look, trump has obviously had a big week with the debate. he is riding high right now. the biden campaign is sort of wallowing in questions about whether joe biden should continue as the nominee. so, all of the momentum campaign-wise is on the trump side right now. you look at a ruling here that gives trump immunity broadly, that simply takes a lot of legal wrangling off of the former president's plate as he campaigns. i think it energizes donors and supporters. it certainly will energize the former president himself and all that momentum will continue. if you get a ruling that says, blanket, no, forget about it, there is no such thing as presidential immunity, that's ridiculous, then i think you see the former president looking into what his options are in court.

that becomes a distraction. it's a time management issue, as you suggest, going into the fuel, but the idea that it has taken so long to get to this ruling does seem to indicate to court observers that they're coming up with some more nuanced take on this, some kind of test, saying, well, there is presidential immunity but only in certain circumstances, and we're going to spell out the circumstances. that would be the kind of thing that would require the lengthy delay as they hash through what kind of immunity would be given on what kind of basis in the future, but anything like that would be seen as a win for trump. >> yeah. obviously, incredibly important, eamon, but from a perspective in terms of impact on markets or business, i would assume you would agree the chevron ruling from late last week, much more salient when it comes to those. >> absolutely. the chevron -- people outside the beltway don't necessarily focus on the arcana of the inside the beltway regulatory agencies but removing all that power from regulatory agencies

and saying, that's got to go back to congress, that's a huge win for business. we saw rulings earlier in the week against the regulatory state, so to speak, so i think this court's term will be defined by this trump ruling in question, but the lasting legacy for business will be this question of regulatory agencies, what kind of power they have, whether the s.e.c., for example, can operate its own in-house court, so to speak. that is vitally important to business as they tangle with regulatory agencies here, and the court is clearly on business's side there. >> yeah. eamon, thank you, and obviously, we'll be seeing you in the next hour. eamon javers. dan ives is out with a new .

take a look at futures one more time. we get started with the second half of the year. stock trading about seven minutes from now. we got a lot more "squawk on the street" straight ahead.

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pop! [ screams ] you can see there the potential nasdaq as we get ready to start trading four minutes from now. constellation, largest owner of nuclear power plants in the country. yes, that really is a datacenter play/a.i. play is what you're seeing there. and you saw, of course, the first half performance of that company stock was extraordinary as well. we got an opening bell in just a few minutes. don't forget, you can catch us any time and anywhere by listening to and following the "squawk on the street: opening bell" podcast.

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>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. all right, we got about 40 s seconds before we get started with the second half of the year. it is july 1st. mike santoli, great to have you on the desk, actually. anything in particular this morning that you're keeping an eye on? >> i do think it's the move in the bond market. ten-year treasury is at a

four-week high. equity futures gain has been a little bit getmitigated. plus, of course, where is nvidia going to open? it's the eternal question. it looks flattish at the moment. >> and here it is. come on. the opening bell here. take a look. at the big board, toga. at the nasdaq, breakthrough t1d, a type i diabetes advocacy organization does the honors. more green on the board as you see at our realtime exchange, and as mike said, nvidia opening more or less flat. >> yeah. >> right now. >> it's still in this mode of, like, we put in this really aggressive piece a couple weeks ago. all the momentum stocks had a sharp little pullback. last week, assort of a weak

bounce, and i compare it to what we saw back in march, a kind of rush higher in nvidia that had a crescendo, and the rest of the market had to do what it could to keep things together. morgan stanley trading desk this morning more or less giving the market credit for weathering this well, showing a firm bid, and sort of sneakily, software stocks have gotten a little firmer. they had been considered the a.i. losers. so, for now, the market's ability to sort of rotate around and hold the indexes of the big indicator of what we could see with the equity markets, and i think we've seen kind of a toggling back and forth between the two, which one you check first. is it the ten-year or the nvidia when you wake up in the morning

and decide, okay, this is the directionality, this is what the market is focused on. >> no, for sure. and that's been the rule. if you look at, actually, what's working today, you mentioned constellation, david, these stocks that are kind of the go-to, as well as tesla. i feel like you got these sort of people who are activated on these short-term thematic-type, i wouldn't say speculative, but like the world-changing trade gets -- runs together. >> it is fascinating. you come into this year saying constellation is going to be one of the best performers, you probably would have had people look at you funny. but this goes to what we've been talking about for months now, which is essentially is datacenters that are going to be running all of these generative a.i. models, the enormous computing power in those datacenters, which needs a great deal of power, and today, "the wall street journal" reporting, for example -- something i've been talking about as well, hearing from infrastructure

bankers and lawyers, potentially taking all the power from a nuclear power plant will amazon web services do for one of its datacenters, and the numbers are staggering when you talk about hundreds of thousands of homes that similarly could be powered or equal to the powering on one datacenter gives you some sense, there is beginning to be some concern, perhaps, that if you're taking that off the grid and it's only being used for one datacenter, what is that going to mean for the overall ability, capacity of the electric power generation? we need a lot more of it, and that's another reason you've seen these stocks in particular benefit so greatly. >> what does it mean for rates? what does that mean for inflation? there's kind of this broader societal implication as well, but i also thought that "journal" article was interested in terms of going direct and doing these deals directly. >> we're going to see more of it. >> to make sure that you can -- >> i've been hearing the same. we're going to see more of them basically saying, we will take all of the output from this particular unit, and in this case, they want to be carbon-free and nuclear is really the answer.

but then the question becomes, what replaces that capacity? well, probably have to be natural gas, which is obviously far cleaner than coal but not what a lot of the biggest companies might have made these commitments, these carbon-free commitments. >> it is true. on a linear level, that's the obvious reason, and the market is going to have to kind of create this huge premium in these stocks to make it seem like a great investment so that we can build the capacity and maybe so it becomes a bubble that ultimately busts. that's what happened with broadband. everybody thought we were never going to have enough, and you couldn't invest enough, and you know, 25 years ago, and then those companies didn't do well, but the system did great. i also do wonder, i mean, you hear jensen huang at nvidia talk about how much more efficient each iteration is going to be and all these other companies. you can solve for it two different ways. more power or make them more power efficient over time, make the actual datacenters more power efficient. so, i think, you know, at some point, it maybe is not as easy as, yep, prices of electricity

going up, we're going to need a lot more of it. but in the short-term, there's no other solution. >> no, and as they become more power efficient, you just put more and more of them in the datacenter, which will ultimately overwhelm the idea of more efficiency in a sense because you're doing even more computing. >> we're in this phase, just throwing money and capacity at it. raymond james, in, i think, raising its price target on meta today, part of it is, they say, we're the street high for next year's capex number for meta. $50 billion. that's the bullish case. they're going to invest even more and fastener these a.i. capacities and kind of have an internalized a.i. system, and that shows you the thinking, and that's why the market as a whole has really bought into the whole premise, because you're taking cash on the balance sheets of, like, a meta and amazon, and all these other companies that otherwise would just be sitting there, buying back stocks. you're handing it to nvidia. 50% of it goes to the bottom line of nvidia. the market says, i pay $40 for

every dollar of earnings. it's like, that tells you why the overall market is able to kind of capture so much more value as this, you know, as this process becomes kind of a virtuous cycle in the short-term. >> also exacerbates having unique advantages in the current environment, because if you don't have the cash to put $50 billion in capex, which meta historically has been a capex-light company, then that benefit just continues. >> right. it's only -- only the largest can actually participate, so to speak. those numbers are just staggering. $50 billion, we're talking about. microsoft, the same, potentially going to $100 billion in capex. >> amazing. >> they're inconceivable, the numbers, and it can only be these companies that generate so much cash and have enormous balance sheets. i wanted to come to a couple of movers this morning. chewy is not up nearly as much as it appeared to be in the

premarket. but the stock is still ahead by some 4%-plus. one kooeith gill, otherwise kno as roaring kitty, filed with a 9 million-share position. that's 6.6% of the outstandings. it's about 240-odd, $243 million worth of stock. >> for an individual. >> for one guy. of course, we know him from gamestop, and we know that in this most recent go-around in gamestop, he clearly came out well. chewy was founded by ryan cohen, who runs gamestop, but cohen's not on the board. he's not part of management now. >> of chewy. >> of chewy. >> he sold it to petsmart years ago. >> took it public. >> listen, i think many market participants are marveling at simply the number here. now, i don't know how much of it is margined. i don't know how much financing he's getting or what derivative component here. we're not getting that from the filing. a lot more questions than

answers. i don't have access to mr. gill. >> there's no way you can't trace it back exactly? you don't know what he monetized out of the gamestop options position after that stock popped? it does fit the profile, not just because of the ryan cohen, but it seems like the meme stock mad libs. it's a 15% short position in chewy. so, he feels like that kind of feeds into that, us against them,let get the shorts type of story. chewy, as a stock and as a business, has been a very interesting path. kind of this, you know, e-commerce growth at all costs, we don't care about the bottom line story for a while. boom-bust in the stock now and it's supposed to be moving toward the free cash flow type story, trying to follow airbnb and doordash and uber, when you went from, you know, just top line to catch both, kind who have mixed results so far. >> leslie, nice to have you here, because themes that we have been discussing in the first half, certainly private credit, private markets have been one of the key ones, along

with, of course, the growth of a a.i. we have a deal today. blackrock is buying a uk company. total purchase price, about $3.2 billion in cash, but this company is basically an independent provider of private market data. and it seems to be, perhaps, a deal that is more important in terms of what it says about blackrock's ambitions, particularly when it comes to private markets, and what kind of products it may be able to create. they're paying pretty hefty multiple to revenues here. >> 13 times. >> 13 years' worth of revenues is what they're paying on a $250 million, basically, revenue b base. the analysts are positive. that revenue number is growing. $240 million. but an interesting reflection of how seriously they're taking the continued growth and democratization of private market products. >> i think they said on the call they would look to do some sort of funking indexing with private data as a result of this

transaction. they also expect it to be a stand-alone product as well. i've used it for years to get insights into what alternative managers are doing. alternative managers also use it for insights into fund-raising and deals and the like, so for blackrock, which has done several deals in this private market world -- they did general infrastructure partners. >> like $12 million. >> $12.5 billion. and then a private debt manager, last year, so this is kind of this next iteration. they also see data as being a key tailwind as well with significant -- i think it's like an $8 billion cam for private market data alone. and so, this is kind of feeding into blackrock's whole push into alternatives, and i think this one, in particular, given the data side of things, fits both into its alternative mantra, and just the overall growth you see in private assets, but also it's

a system that's a software for a portfolio construction, portfolio management. they see this as a way to kind of fit into that portfolio management stock where the technology there and help its clients in a very fast-growing -- >> that's the roots of blackrock in way is the analytics and the risk management software. and they built the asset manager along with that. and they're very skewed now if you look. kind of low-fee, commoditized etf stuff. this is a way to get -- >> and their margins are pretty significant. they're going to do for private markets, the c.o.o. what, they did for public markets. perhaps at some point, we'll barely be able to tell the difference between the two. >> 100%, in the way that, like, indexes overtook active and now private is kind of countering that. >> yeah, i know. if we can just get some charts, we'll start talking about them a lot more. >> absolutely. >> we need charts. >> 100%. >> that's what caught my attention. indexing of private markets. >> charts. we don't have a network. let's move on and turn to our

next guest. he predicts the nasdaq will have another strong second half, tech stocks will be up as much as 15% for that time. for value, he says, lean into software names. top picks include microsoft and apple. yes, he's dan ives, and he's right here at post nine. i think you've outdone yourself today. we're going to have to get a full shot at some point, including the japanese -- the sneakers. >> yep. >> painted in japan, i believe, correct? >> yes, exactly. an artist in japan. >> we could use a shot of that. >> we'll get you that in a minute. let's talk about why you continue to see and be the bullish dan ives that you have been for quite some time. >> look, it speaks to our view going into the year. nasdaq 20,000 is ultimately where i think we head. tech stocks up another 15%, because even though this has been led by godfather of a.i., jensen, nvidia, the multiple

pl multiplier is going through. semi is. now, consumer a.i. revolution, with what's happened in apple, in my opinion, it is 9:00 p.m. in the a.i. party. that goes to 4:00 a.m. and i think this tech market, bull market's going to continue. >> how long does it take to get to 4:00 a.m., though. >> i think, in our opinion, it's a two-year tech bull market, because i think in the next phase, the second, third, fourth derivative, it's about the use cases playing out. you see what's happening with microsoft, hyperscaler, google, amazon, but next it's going to be names like palantir. look at oracle. someone told you dell was an a.i. name six months ago, you would say, no way. look at it today. it's a 1995 moment, not a 1999 moment. i think numbers go up significantly. going into next year. and it speaks to our view where the bears will continue to yell in their caves about valuation with their spreadsheets, riding

this tech market, and just move higher. >> you've been saying it's '95 for two years, dan. how long does 1995 last? >> '95 ultimately becomes '96, '9 7, but the difference here is you talk about capex of meta, $50 billion. we're seeing microsoft, $100 billion. in some of the covered cap back in the '90s, this is not a bubble. this is not a '99, here it comes moment. now it's about a fourth industrial revolution. it's about that multiplier. when you look at consumer, that's why apple going to be the renaissance of growth that starts as a.i.-driven super cycle from apple, and that -- apple, microsoft, nvidia, on the enterprise side, that's where i think -- in our opinion for tech stocks still. 15% higher. >> and even when you're sometimes negative on names, you seem to still be positive on them.

i think of tesla, which, by the way, you were right to stay positive, because the stocks has come back. on the negative side, you write the losers are going to be the tech players that get squeezed out of sales cycle, technology-driven platforms and future growth opportunities because they don't have the tools, tech, or software engineers to compete. so, what does that mean, then? who is that likely to be? >> you've seen some of the disasters, ui, some of these smaller players that have been squeezed out of sales cycles, what's happening across software. i think what's going to happen is across software, across semis, it's not just saying a.i. 40 times on the conference call. now, it's about execution. i think strong gets stronger. i think a lot of smaller players get squeezed out. ultimately, there will be map consolidation in terms of that phase for software. but i think any sort of h hiccup -- you'll see the stocks down 20, 30, 40%. you focus on the teams, the

winners, microsoft, apple, and then even go, like, mid cap. i think, in cyber csecurity, ani talk about value, i think software and cybersecurity is where i see just massive value, names like crowdstrike, zscaler, palo alto, even though many were bearish on palo alto six months ago, it speaks to what we're seeing with which cloud a.i. revolution. >> you're going to let us know when '99/2000 is coming, right? you won't be able to do that. you're too bullish. >> the point is, it's 9:00 p.m. it is not midnight. and i think this thing goes to 4:00 a.m. >> this is a man who knows how to part. look at him. >> you know the old saying. the clocks have no hands. that was the -- >> i mean, he's ready for the club right now. dan, thank you >> thank you. >> all right, ism and construction spending due out at the top of the hour. first, though, manufacturing pmi. rick santelli. >> yes, thank you, david.

s&p 500 pmi, this is manufacturing, and this, of course, is going to replace the mid-month read, which was 51.7, now gets finalized in permanent marker at 51.6. it remains the best month-over-month positive change since march of this year and do recall, this is the sixth read for 2024. all six are an expansion above 50, whereas last year, in 2023, we only had two of 12 above 50. but we continue to look at all the isms that will be coming out, as david pointed out, and do look at the ten-year and two-year, which have really sold off a bit this morning, especially pre-opening of the equities. we see that yields are up about three basis points in the front, about four basis points in the longer maturities, and "squawk on the street" will return after a very short break.

that is a live shot of the supreme court of the united states. final decisions due out in the next hour. that will include the blockbuster ruling on president trump's absolute immunity claim. we of course will bring you that once we hear what it is. we're back in just a moment.

welcome back. now on to the presidential fundraising plitsz following last week's debate. meghan cosell la joins us with those details. hey, meghan. >> the biden campaign spent the weekend in damage control mode and some of the biggest donors were reevaluating the path forward. the campaign says it raised $33 million from thursday through saturday with about $26 million coming from grassroots donors. officials said thursday and friday were the two best days ever for grassroots fundraising which they say shows the voters are still with them. biden needs the wealthy donors and i spoke with attendees who told me they were reassured how the president seemed at those events, strong and healthy, one

described the mood in the hamptons as kends enthusiasm, another said the new york event resolved to do more to help biden to win with one giving an extra $500,000 on the shot. the debate was cold shower shock for democrats and many are more engaged because they're worried about losing than they were before. even still some of biden's biggest donors recognize the challenge ahead. reid hoffman of linkedin sent an e-mail friday on why replacing biden would be a bad idea and the donor adviser demeantry melhorn says the debate makes it more difficult to convince some donors to contribute. >> if there was a donor who was hesitant because they weren't sure biden was going to win, those donors are not opening their wallets this week. makes that work harder but the work continues. >> there's a lot of frustration with the candidate that democrats have, but replacing him as seen as risky and donors for now are standing with the

party. >> thank you. and mike, thank you as well, of course. >> sure. >> for joining this hour. any parting thoughts for us? >> no, we're sort of wavering as i thought as we watch the bond market, so this is the game we're playing so far in july. >> mike santoli. you can catch him all day long everywhere. the supreme court expected to announce its decision on former president trump's claim of absolute immunity. we will have that for you in the xtoune hr. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. - custom ink helps us motivate our students with custom gear. we love how custom ink takes care of everything we need,

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. good monday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm david faber with leslie picker, and yes, that is will ferds frost. sara and carl have the morning off. a quick look at markets half hour into trading and treasuries as well. you can see and mike santoli said, keep an eye on the 10-year. always does prove so important in terms of the action.

we are up on all the -- we're up on the s&p but down on the nasdaq. we're closely watching for the supreme court decisions, final decisions, in fact, of the term including a -- one historic one on whether former president trump is immune from prosecution for his alleged role in the riot on capitol hill january 6th 2021. the court's highly anticipated ruling will determine whether the january 6th case will proceed and potentially, although that seems unlikely at this point, to go to trial before the november election. we will bring you all the headlines as they cross this hour. >> some economic data crossing the tape. to rick santelli who has the data for us as always. good morning to you, rick. >> good morning, wilf. construction spending for the month of may expected to be up a couple tents of a percent and disappointment here, down 0.1%. which actually up to this point before the revisions hit the wires, double.

we were down 0.1% last month as well. which means that out of the current five reads that we have for the month, only one was positive that was february. now up, there's the revision, make that two, up 0.3. we get a disappointing construction spending for may, but the previous month, previous month goes from minus 0.1 to up 0.3. when you put them together it's a bit better on a two month average. ism manufacturing for june, hitting the wires at 48.5. that's a little bit of a disappointment. do keep in mind every month, every month but march, was under 50. 48.5 is the weakest level going back to, well, 48.5 is the weakest since february when 47.8. 47.8, now 52.1 prices paid. we look at this in reverse. normally we hope for higher numbers in this case we hope for

lower numbers. 52.1 following 57.0. 52. 1, that's the smallest prices paid of the year. 45.2 was december december of last year. that's where we're comping to. new orders 49.3, follows 45.3. this is a good week to look at this closely with the adp and jobs, jobs, jobs report on friday, 49.3, so it is below 50, last month 51.1. 49.3 the weakest since april when we were at 48.6. and on these metrics we only had january, february, march, april we're all under 50. interest rates on the day are higher, but they're not at the highest levels, but should we close here, both 2s and 10s would be a three-week high yield close. leslie back to you. >> thank you. good reminder because it's a holiday week doesn't mean the markets aren't open and there's

a lot of data to look forward to. 30 minutes into the trading session here are some of the big movers we're watching. boeing buying its troubled supplier spirit aerosystems in a $4.7 billion stock deal. the deal is more than $8 billion if you include debt. executives believe the plan will improve quality and safety control as the plane maker faces mounting scrutiny for past violation. shares of boeing and spirit up at this hour. take a look at chewy, shares there had been rallying, now down about 2.4%, after filings showed the meme trader keith gill, known as roaring kitty, bought 9 million shares of the company amounting to a 6.6% stake. and birkenstock getting a little bit of a boost today up 1.5%. ubs upgrading the name to buy from neutral saying it has, quote, new conviction in the upside for shares of the shoe company, the stock up about 13% year to date. it is, of course, the first trading day for the second half of the year and trying to build

on their strong gains in the first. the nasdaq by the way was up almost 20%. bob pisani joins us now at presidenpost nine to look at what investors should be focused on this second half of the year. surely we can't repeat that first half. >> we could theoretically but the earnings are dependent on tech and we're seeing decelerating earnings growth in tech. that's a warning sign. what's going on here n theory we're in remarkably good shape on all quarters, all three quarters remaining for the year. up 10%p 10.6% this quarter, these numbers, these estimates have been remarkably stable. within a percentage point or two for the last three or four months. we're halfway through the year and could do a 10% earnings growth this year. here's the concerns that i have. there are two major concerns. the first is, that in big cap tech earnings are still growing, but the rate of growth is slowing. that's called decelerating earnings growth and a red flag

for fundamental investors. the other on a separate issue is consumer stocks are seeing pushback on prices. we've heard companies like kimberly clark, going to be lowering prices, mcdonald's talking about doing this and what's going to happen that's going to pressure margins to a certain extent. these issues are big but the decelerating earnings growth everybody wants to talk about nvidia. let me show you what decelerating earnings growth looks like. month over month changes here. a year ago is when everybody caught on to nvidia and started growing their system dramatically. look what happened a year ago. this is quarter over quarter earnings growth. 145%. for nvidia. then next quarter, 50% earnings growth. 30%, 17, 5. you see that? that is decelerating earnings growth. earnings are still growing, that's the thing to understand, but they are just not going up as fast as before and that's a red flag to fundamental investors that are out there talking about this and saying we need to be very careful about that.

so when you -- this is important because this has happened to a lesser extent with always of the border patrol tech names. companies. look at the earnings in the first half of the second quarter. 30% here we're talking about the second quarter up 10%. u put the up one up, six largest tech stocks up 37%. the 490 others only up 5% this year. the earnings are very lopsided in the technology space. see what i'm talking about. now talk about the s&p 500. a lot of discussion about the s&p up 14%, to equal weight, s&p only up 4%. i would contend the anomaly here is the s&p up 14% because of technology dragging everything up. the average gain in the s&p 500 on a yearly basis absent dividends is about 7%. so we're seeing a normal year in the s&p 500. it's the tech stocks in terms of

like this, nvidia, alphabet, amazon that are anom list that are unusual. everybody saying the rate of the market isn't doing well. that's not true. the rest of the market is doing fine. it's this thaits a little bit anomaly and unusual. as for the rest of the year, it's very, very tricky to look at what's going on here. we've got rising earnings, tech earnings are decelerating, and we see nice job growth, we see interest rates moderating, that's positive, inflation moderating positive, and the consumer cautious i would say is a negative. i call this a complicated stew for the second half of the year. overall on my little front, my little world, earnings really, really good still. >> on that topic on earnings, what's your takeaway from the market reaction to the likes of nike or walgreens? is that telling you that any slight miss in the next couple months is going to be punished badly or are those stocks specific massive misses? >> no. that's specifically on the consumer side where they're saying they're getting pushback from consumers, the second point that i was making. so i see you're going to see a

lot of consumer staples and discretionary companies come under some margin pressure by the need to reduce prices overall. amazon is a separate business that's out there. but yeah, i think that's going to be a major problem. the bigger problem is technology. there's no room for error in any of these stocks. they could move dramatically. the risk is to the downside right now for the major tech stocks because of the fact that we're seeing some decelerating earnings growth but the prices aren't dropping at all. you get decelerating earnings growth with prices still really high that's extremely risky and you get people coming out, you know, in the last few days we've had major strategists talking about that's the major risk for the second half of the year. >> on the flip side, too, you've got kostin and goldman saying in the last three years, this is the kind of highest expectations for profits for s&p 500, so what does that sugg to you if companies do outperform or do surprise to the upside? does that leave little room for

a positive price performance as well, just given how high expectations are and how much of that is priced into the market right now. >> right. so remember we're still getting earnings growth. it's not growing as fast but the prices aren't dropping at all. so decelerating earnings growth with the s&p 500 p/e ratio still above 20, so most of the growth this year has been in the expansion of the multiple. there's been a little bit of profit growth which is really good, but right now t everything is stretched to the limit. about the limit we can get in a normal p/e ratio, close to 21 right now, earnings growth are going to be up 10% this year, the typical earnings growth for the s&p is about 6%. we're pressing the margins of where you go on a multiple and the margins of what a typical growth period is for earnings are. that doesn't leave any room for error at all. all of a sudden you could wake up and we had like nvidia down for no particular reason, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10% in short periods of time with no particular reason. it's momentum guys getting out

and then fundamental guys staying like what we were saying there, decelerating earnings. that's the risk right now. >> bob pisani, great stuff. thanks so much. let's now bring in our next guest who does expect a correction that will take place in the s&p 500 taking it down to 47570. but acknowledges that we could be in for a full-blown mania that would take the s&p to 6k before the drop down. the chief equity strategist barry bannister. thanks so much for joining us. break down your base case first of all. it's for some kind of correction to what extent? 10% or so in the s&p and how soon? >> first off nice to see you back, and, you know, our view actually is a correction first. the s&p through the end of the third quarter, many of the things that bob pisani outlined, and he does a great job on that. the deceleration of the earnings growth, the very high p/e ratio,

the stickiness of inflation, and we actually think there's a mild case of stagflation building into the third, early fourth quarter. you've got some weak economic data and you've got some inflation. so it does put the fed in a bind and stocks are expensive, versus financial conditions index, for example, particularly the cap weighted s&p which looks like it has about 3.5 p/e multiple points on forward earnings of ai related froth relative to the more fairly valued equal weighted index. >> so if we're talking about the possibility of stagflation, why are we only talking about a small correction? i mean, surely, that takes us with stock prices where we are into a scenario where we should be seeing a massive pullback. >> 4750 is a pretty massive pullback. it's in line with those that you saw when there was uncertainty related to the fed and the mid 2010s, 2015, 2016 time frame.

the dollar was too strong, the industrial side, as you saw from today's purchasing manager index was weak. the inflation this time is the new wrinkle. we think it will pop back up and the core pce inflation to the mid 20s on a month-over-month basis and basis points. that would probably print 3% on core pce by the end of the year. we watched all the elements of it, super core, housing contribution and so forth, so when we're looking at that, you know, in the likelihood that productivity, which has bounced back after the call it the pseudo recession of '22- '23, a recession in everything but employment, that the productivity bounceback looked like it's spent. it will roll over into the back half and you'll have rising unit labor costs. so there are a number of things that i would be concerned about in this calendar seasonally weak

period through the late summer, early fall. ? stifel has a piece out about bitcoin and the signals that it sees suggesting an imminent s&p 500 correction warning. what are those signals that you see and why does it have a barometer on what the s&p does? >> that was me. the bitcoin piece is interesting because when you look at it, it's not having -- it's not -- it's not hall ving, it's not any thing like that. the major move in bitcoin occurred right when the fed pivoted to dovishness. bernanke announcing qe3 in 2012. chair yellen pivoting in the first quarter of 16, all the powell pivots we've seen in his tenure, and there have been several, every time they pivot bitcoin takes off. it's a cheap money, easy liquidity play, a hyper charged

play on that. and every time bitcoin peaks after those major moves up, mathematically, it leads to a weaker or a flat s&p. the s&p right now is very top of the trading range we expect related to bitcoin. i think it pulls back easily at 5% into the july, august timeframe, but we're looking for a little bit more on the s&p pullback. >> barry bannister, great to see you as always. thanks so much. >> good to see you. >> reminder tomorrow morning sara eisen will be live from portugal alongside ecb president christine lagarde, fed chair jerome powell and the head of brazil's central bank, be sure to tune in to "squawk on the street" for that. fantastic looking panel. as we head to a break here is our road map for the rest of hour, including the second half playbook for technology stocks. the best sector, of course, so far this year. >> speaking of rallies a closer look at the financials moving

higher in today's trade as the big banks raise their dividends post stress tests. >> we continue to monitor the supreme court expected to hand down its final opinions of the term including former president trump's immunity case. we'll keep our eyes on that throughout the morning. "squawk on the street" back after a short break.

the moment i met him i knew he was my soulmate. "soulmates." soulmate! [giggles] why do you need me? [laughs sarcastically] but then we switched to t-mobile 5g home internet. and now his attention is spent elsewhere. but i'm thinking of her the whole time. that's so much worse. why is that thing in bed with you? this is where it gets the best signal from the cell tower! i've tried everywhere else in the house! there's always a new excuse. well if we got xfinity you wouldn't have to mess around with the connection. therapy's tough, huh? -mmm. it's like a lot about me. [laughs] a home router should never be a home wrecker. oo this is a good book title. welcome back to "squawk on the street." let's turn to tech the best s&p sector for the first half of the

year up around 28%. can that sector continue its rally. brent gill joins us now. that seems to be the question of the morning as everyone is assessing the prospects for the second half. what's your take? >> i think tech can continue its rally. we've had a massive under performance in software so we do believe that software can pick up the pace. semis in infrastructure have been leading the charge, so we look for a more weighted softer rally in the back half of this year. it's massively under performed. semis up close to 15, swear software up 7 so we believe year to date that software can have a better rally as you go into the seasonally stronger second half as well as we look at 25 numbers, so it's been a challenging front half for our core coverage, but we think that will change in the back half. we do think it's super early in ai and we think we're in really

early i thinnings, ai picks and shovels, we're buying the core infrastructure. 95% of ai deployments are pocs, proof of concepts, those have to flip to live installations to get the full value. as that happens we think companies like microsoft are in great shape with their copilot strategy in the back half, amazon, will also benefit in a big way in the back half, others like snowflake, elastic, who are riding the ai wave as well will benefit as we go into what is again largely fueled by infrastructure and then as we call it the applications or the software, the art that's going to get hung inside the house, we're building the frames of the house right now. we don't have any of the artwork. that will happen late '24 into 2025. >> i see here that you have this cio survey that says 57% of cios are reallocating spend due to

ai. it's clear that that kind of shift in resources has been funneled in that direction, but i'm curious, who do you see them reallocating from? in other words, there are software plays that have been left behind in the first half of the year for a reason and those you expect to continue to kind of try and generate additional spending from enterprises in particular as a result of the is shift? >> yeah. as you said 60% of the cios are eallocating spend and i think they're reallocating away from horizontal applications. we've seen the number back off hr and front office crm companies like salesforce and workday have some impact in the front half of the year. others have not seen any impact. we think horse zontsal applications have been somewhat impacted and that won't last forever. i think we're going through a phase of any board is effectively asking the management teams what we doing in ai.

ai is not cheap. it takes time, energy and resources and they're having to reallocate that budget. those applications will come back at some point, but if they're not infused with ai yet and not having a demonstrable difference for the users, and so in the interim these more zontsal apps get put on the back burner. data initiatives like what's happening with snowflake, when you look at what's happening with microsoft, azure, amazon in the u.s., those are front burner. data stakes are seeing budget surges because every company is trying to get their data ready for ai. you're not going to deploy new applications on top of data that's not ready. so we think, again, the survey was said horizontal applications are going to be the ones that get in the short term get the back burner, but it will rotate back to those apps over a period of time.

>> brent, it's great to see you. my question stepping back a bit is, whether you ever worry some of these companies, 3 trillion plus, 1 trillion plus, are getting too big? putting it a different way, it's kind of remarkable that we haven't seen any big management strategic errors, when you're trying to oversee some enormous sprawling companies? >> i mean, at this point we're at the beginning of the ai journey, so i think there are going to be some casualties. right now you've seen the big get bigger as we say in ai, you need capital users and the data and those are benefitting companies like google, meta, amazon and microsoft. in the interim, you know, i think you're going to see some companies that don't catch this wave. i think it's really easy to pick the winners right now. i think it's harder for us to pick the losers at this point. but it's pretty clear who's going to win and you have three ingredients, capital, users and data and that goes back to the

big three. wilfred, to your question, i think you go back to those are the stories that are going to disproportionately benefit. we've been clear, we don't think there's a lot of great companies that are going to benefit, there's only a few. look back at the internet cycle it was google that came out of it. if you look at all these different cycles, salesforce in the front office, in the back office, oracle and sap dominating early, past cycles i think it's a predictor for future cycles that there really aren't going to be that many winners. there's going to be a handful of really big winners and why you're seeing the market give and market caps to nvidia, microsoft, to the rest of big tech, because we've all seen this movie before and i think in ai, it's going to matter the size and scope and dollars that you can spend. >> all right. brent, it's david. to the extent then that enterprise software has not, obviously, kept up and given the points that you're making, are thering gb to a lot of losers

there as well, and when are we going to be able to tell? >> we're going to tell into next year, so we've said this year it's all marketing effectively these products will come to market in a bigger form in the back half of this year into 2025. so it will be very clear who has ai products and who does not, and right ow, microsoft is standing out as one of the best position stories. when you look at other companies like adobe with fire fly they're doing phenomenally well. companies in terms of data state, snowflake building on top of the core analysis, they're benefitting over time. and there are a whole host of private companies doing extremely well, but that will become clearer in the latter this year into 2025. again, i think it's easier for us to say who's got better products right now. there's clearly companies that are lagging. and then there's different

beneficiariesp oracle is benefitting from infrastructure, they're not benefitting really from the software today. most of the ai companies bring their software to oracle so they're renting out their infrastructure and benefitting from that side. the jury is still out, can they pivot and create a software platform. right now they're providing an enabling infrastructure. ibm, right, the jury is out there. they already had a tough go of watson and now they have watson x and you heard what mcdonald's said. we're stopping our deployment in the short term. that may not be ibm's issues, but others to keep an eye on. >> a lot of smart money focused on this idea of the winners and ultimate company kefs disrupted by this technology. thank you, brent. appreciate it. >> thank you. we have to take a quick break here on "squawk on the street" as we continue, of course, to watch the developments from the supreme court. we'll keep an eye on that throughout the morning. reminder tomorrow on this program tune in to sara eisen's conversation with fed chair jerome powell, ecb president christine lagarde and the head of brazil's central bank.

rtalomrouster panel from poug torw. we'll be right back.

the six largest u.s. banks reacting positively to the capital returns plans announced friday after the close, just to summarize things, wells fargo had the largest dividend increase up 14%, while jpmorgan had the biggest overall change when coupled with its prior first quarter hike, that was up 19%. they unveiled these dividend plans on friday after the whole industry really showed resilience in that annual fed stress test earlier in the week, but a lot has been made, guys, of the fact that this test did show higher burns. it was a slightly tougher test for the banks, not necessarily a tougher test relative to last year, but in terms of performance, even goldman sachs kind of said in their statement that it wasn't indicative, it wasn't representative of the changes they have been making strategically at the firm just these overall results of the stress tests. i think it's interesting,

although a lot of slitsz analysts will point out more important for capital return is the finalization of the basel iii end game rules, because there's so much uncertainty with how much capital the banks need to hold. if there is the expected watering down and pullback that could be indicative. >> got to stop you. decision on immunity regarding former president trump. let's get over to eamon javers with the news. >> yeah, david, the top line here appears to be a win for former president trump in the supreme court. the supreme court writing that under our constitutional structure of separated powers, the nature of presidential power entitles a former president to absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for actions within his conclusive and precluesive constitutional authority and entitled to presumptive immunity for all official acts there. there is no immunity for

unofficial acts. that is largely what donald trump has been arguing, for official acts, a former president needs legal legal immunity if a president were to order an air strike in a military context that accidentally killed an american, that former president would not then be libel in the courts for that decision. now, this seems to be an indication that the court on a 6-3 majority have sided with the former president donald trump, but it's a long decision and we're going to go through it here to see what the carve outs are, the caveats are here and what the implications are for this court case involve the former president which has been on hold since march 4th, whether or not that will be able to proceed under this decision, guys, back over to you. >> eamon, remind us how it's split down there, 6-3? >> yep. >> so this is -- you know, there were a lot of observers who said that the court, if it wanted to have credibility with the country, ought to be unanimous

on this one. this is not a unanimous decision. there will be some skeptics who say this is a partisan decision coming down in a 6-3 conservative majority. again, that's just the top line here. wilf, need to read the rest of this decision, which is a lengthy one, in order to figure out what the tests are, what the carve outs are and what the implications are. >> we'll let you do that. are we going to get some definition of official acts versus what is considered an unofficial act i guess? >> we may. there's 119 pages here, so this is a long decision. and the court has been working on this for weeks and weeks so i think we are going to get some clarity here. but going through it right now, you know, first blush, we're just looking at exactly what ruling is on the top line. >> eamon, in the meantime, i mean this programs is already decided based on the time it's taken for the supreme court to even reach this decision, but does this confirm now more than ever that donald trump will be

the republican nominee come november? >> it seems to be enormous momentum for the former president donald trump, yeah. this would remove one of the big stumbling blocks for his campaign given the amount of court time and mental distraction and legal distraction and expense in fighting this case. we have to just put pause here for a moment on saying definitively what happens to this case. we need to really absorb this decision and understand where this case is going next, but this is a big win for the former president. it does seem to clear some of the last remaining underbrush out of the way for this campaign and comes at a time when his rival the current president joe biden is struggling with calls from his own party to step down after his poor debate performance last week. so taken all of that together it does seem like a very big week for donald trump, guys. >> what do you think it means, eamon, for fundraising in

particular? you know, we've seen kind of a boost following the debate last week. is this something that you think could provide an additional tailwind for president trump's coffers leading into the election? >> well, i mean, just -- joking a little bit but i'm looking at my phone here to see if we're already getting fundraising solicitations from both sides on this. i mean this will be a -- the kind of decision that will inflame a lot of passions, right, and when passions are inflamed, checkbooks come out and people start writing checks and giving their credit card numbers to campaigns. i would expect within moments you're going to see all of those e-mails going out soliciting money here. this will be a fundraising bow flan za for the trump campaign and possibly the biden campaign as well as you look at both parties have positioned themselves around rule of law, defense of democracy, what the american presidency is. the supreme court some of the members of the supreme court have said they were writing a decision for the ages here, and

it's clear that whatever decision the supreme court came up to here, will be something that will be debated and discussed for decades if not centuries. it goes to the fundamental nature of the american presidency and exactly where the the stands vis-a-vis other citizens in terms of being held accountable under the rule of law. the distinction here is between the question of official acts and unofficial acts and that's the nuance we need to read in the 119 pams to see what the guidance is around those unofficial acts and whether things you do in the course of your campaign, are official or unofficial acts, right. there's huge huge gray area here and we need to really understand now how the supreme court came out on that. >> we're not going to get you get to pages 16 to 32 yet which seem to be where they're directing us in terms of guidance on that distinction between official and unofficial. couple more questions for you. i mean, put in perspective the litigation against former

president trump. obviously, concluded in new york. convicted there. got the documents case down in florida. judge cannon has been taking her time on that one for sure and then atlanta and d.c. none of these expected -- >> the january 6th case? none of them expected to go to trial before the election. >> right. yeah. even in the sort of fastest case scenario for the january 6th case the expectation was that the court, they couldn't get to trial before september at this point. and that indicates that you could have a situation where the former president is re-elected in november, and then can effectively choose an attorney general who will shut down the federal cases against him, right. so you can see the former president saying to any candidate for attorney general in his next administration, you know, your job offer is contingent on shutting this down. that would be against precedent, and something we haven't seen

certainly in recent decades in the united states, but certainly within the power of the former president if he was to be re-elected to say, these cases were nonsense, this is political partisanship, this was unfair to me, and we're going to shut down down if he wins. if he loses you enter in another very unusual area where you look at what the future of that es cases might be in that scenario and at this moment as i sit here having not read all of this yet, that's pretty much unclear. >> well, eamon, we want you to stand by. try to do a little reading while you can as well and bring in our next guest. you are going to go to pages 16 to 32. our next guest led the investigation into russian interference in the 2016 presidential election. peter strzok a former fbi deputy director of the counterintelligence division and joins us on the newsline. it's quite a bit of reading ahead here, peter, for any number of people, what is your

take on what you have a heard thus far in terms of the decision? >> well, i agree with eamon and likewise in reading this from a high-level perspective it's highly unlikely we're going to see this case in d.c. in trial prior to the inauguration, let alone the election. i think reading through it some interesting points. you know, the decision notes that the president is absolutely immune from prosecution for the alleged conduct involving his discussions with doj officials, so the question is, you know, in terms of his charged conduct, the court is very clear that when it comes to what he said with doj officials, again, this is not folks like, you know, john eastman who are outside of the government, but doj folks, are off the table. i think there's some question whether or not even if that cannot be charged, whether or not that information can be used in the context of proving his state of mind with other charges. but, this is i think broadly

what was expected. i mean between the two extremes of either returning the case to go forward to the district court, or ruling that the president has absolute immunity without bounds, those two extremes were highly unlikely and i think you're seeing here the court's, you know, imposing some limitations on what a president can or cannot do when they're in office. >> yeah. well, it seems a lot of it also, and again i've made this point of directing people to pages 16 to 32, seems to come down at sort of the difference between official and unofficial acts. do you have an opinion here as to how that would potentially break down? >> well, i think it's clear that is going to be something that is very much in front of the district court. i think what's interesting is how the district court goes about determining whether or not acts were official or not, is going to entail a certain amount of fact finding. so beyond the briefs that have already been made, beyond the facts alleged or the allegations contained in the indictment, the court potentially has an

opportunity or a responsibility to further develop the record about exactly what the government is alleging occurred, so that they can make that determination. so i think even if we don't see a trial prior to the election, there's a possibility we are going to get additional details about what the government is alleging in order that the court can then decide whether or not the actions were official versus personal. i think there's clearly a strong argument on the part of the government that a lot of what trump was doing in these alleged acts were in the context of candidate trump rather than president trump. the former president has made the argument that, you know, he was concerned about voter fraud, and that that concern was not one of a candidate, but was one as the chief executive and i would expect that to be a full argument when it comes time to the additional future litigation. >> just going to mention we're at the lows of the day for the

s&p and nasdaq, to a fractional gain related to this or not remains to be seen. the lows of the session. back to the decision, what do you make of the 6-3 split in the votes. eamon said some thought maybe if it was going to go this way, despite the caveats between official and unofficial acts people might have wanted to see something unanimous like we saw on the colorado decision. what due make of the 6-3 split? it's a missed opportunity. the chief justice did everything to try to get a unanimous opinion out. it's clear that didn't happen and something of this magnitude, i think the general citizenry of the united states would be much better served by unanimous opinion, but it's clear and i haven't -- i'm rushing through and haven't gotten to the sense yet to see where the breakdown in the difference of opinion occurred, but i do think it indicates and certainly when you look at the ideological split which is clear, you have the

liberal justices in the dissenting side, that there were points that they could not agree to, and that, therefore, the chief justice decided and the majority decided they would go ahead with a more extensive ruling rather than a more limited one that might have garnered a unanimous decision. >> >> stand by. want to get back to eamon who may have more clarity to the definitions of unofficial versus official acts. >> that's right. what the court is doing here is going through in the later pages and discussing the individual allegations, factual allegations, against the former president donald trump, and weighing whether each of those meets this test of being official or unofficial. here on page 19, they're talking about one of the particular allegations. according to the indictment the supreme court writes trump met with the acting attorney general and other senior justice department and white house officials to discuss investigating purported election

fraud and sending a letter from the department to those states regarding such fraud. the question is whether that was inappropriate or whether or not the president had ultimate immunity on that point. what the court is coming down with here is a decision that says, that n, in fact, the president does have immunity in that case. they say trump is, therefore, absolutely immune for prosecution for the alleged conduct involving his discussions with justice department officials. that's a pretty powerful ruling here from the supreme court in terms of the former president's immunity. trump is, therefore, absolutely immune from prosecution for the alleged conduct involving his discussions with justice department officials. now that's on page 21 of a very lengthy decision here. we're going to continue to go through this and look at the other points of alleged conduct by donald trump and what the supreme court has to say about whether immunity applies to those as an official or unofficial act, guys.

on this one a big win inside this decision for donald trump. >> although they go on to say other allegations such as those involving trump's interaction with the vice president, state officials, certain private parties, comments to the general public present more difficult questions. any clarity on that further in the document, eamon? >> well, we're going to get there, david. we have to go through this point by point. we're on live national television reading a complicated ruling. i want to make sure we understand this before we pass on -- >> can't you put it in chatgpt. i mean aren't we at that point here. come on man. >> we're going to replace correspondents with virtual reality any day now. >> you're not reading fast enough. come on. >> that's the way it works. >> peter, i know you're still on the line, i believe. any reaction at all in terms of what you've heard thus far in terms of at least that interaction that eamon discussed as being deemed under his current duties or duties at the time as opposed to an unofficial act? >> i think eamon is wise to

caution a little bit of patience as we go through and read it. but look, the ruling is quite clear. when it comes to trump's discussions with the department of justice, having immunity, again, the question is going to be, whether it be even if not charged, whether or not those -- the content of those communications and discussions can be offered into evidence in terms of trying to demonstrate trump's state of mind when it comes to other charged conduct. but the court is always -- there's an interesting dynamic in the court that they are decision matters of law rather than matters of fact, and that it is at the district court level in the first instance where those matters of fact are to be determined. so they're trying, you know, some would say, you know, terribly trying to thread the needle by weighing in on matters of fact and on the other hand in some cases this hasn't been addressed or needs to be remanded to the district court to decide. so, you know, there is certainly going to be future litigation and movement within the district court to go through this

behavior and i would expect, you know, extensive litigation about these questions of whether or not these were official acts versus personal acts and again, that may well provide the opportunity for the further evidence to be offered by the government making the arguments about why something was a personal act and may give the voters give the american public, give the international public, an opportunity to see more information about what the government has in its hand in terms of why they're alleging trump committed the crimes that he did. >> i want to -- peter, thank you. back to eamon. he has a bit more analysis for us. >> the question of the peat's conversations with the former vice president mike pence the set of allegations around what the former president told the former vice president, the supreme court here saying any conversation between the president and the vice president is an official act and, therefore, this new cloak of immunity will go over it.

they say whenever the president and vice president discuss their official responsibilities they engage in official conduct presiding over the january 6th certification proceedings of which members of congress count electoral votes is a constitutional and statutory duty of the vice president. the idea that trump attempted to pressure the vice president to take acts in connection with his role at the certification proceeding thus involve official conduct and trump is at least presumptively immune from prosecution for such conduct. so another point here on which the former president wins in a big way, david, the question about whether he tried to pressure mike pence into doing one thing or the other in terms of january 6th the supreme court saying it doesn't matter what he did, he's got immunity for official acts there. >> they seem to be citing a lot of different precedence in their vice presidents. franc lin roosevelt, woodrow wilson, dwight eisenhower, going

through the record in terms of those interactions, right? >> right. the other thing we have to get to here at some point and i will get there in the reading is looking at the dissent here because i would imagine that there's going to be a howl of complaint from the three liberal justices on this court. the 6-3 ruling with the conservatives ruling against the liberals here. the liberals will have something to say. it won't matter really legally other than for the historical record. >> great stuff. we'll let you get back to the reading and bring in the former attorney general alberto gonzales, professor at lower belmont university. thanks for joining us. what is your immediate reaction? >> my immediate reaction is no surprise. quite frankly, a president has to make the most difficult decisions you can possibly imagine, that president has to have the flexibility, the power, the authority to make tough decisions and some acting in an

official capacity he should be immune from prosecution. and so i think that that's absolutely true. not acting in an official capacity, we don't have a situation where we have a king in this country and if you're acting in a personal capacity, nonofficial capacity, you still remain potentially criminally libel for your actions and, so i know there will be disagreements about what constitutes an official act and that's something that has vexed the court for these past few months in looking at this case, but having been with the president, president bush, making some difficult decisions on the war on terror, i know that the president has to have confidence that he can exercise his best judgment without fear of criminal prosecution, and only you don't want a president to be reckless, but we never had that problem in this country by and

large from my perspective, so i think this is a right decision. again, the most difficult aspect of this will be decision what are official acts and not official acts and, you know, that's something we'll have to wait and see what happens. >> when you say you have no surprise in this surprise in this decision, why do you think it was not a unanimous decision and why do you think it's a worrying moment, a disappointing moment that it was splis along, i guess, right and left lines, 6-3? >> you know, i think it probably was a very serious, prolonged attempt to try to get that on this issue. obviously, this is a very controversial issue over a controversial event that happened at a very controversial time. so, the fact that it wasn't unanimous, in my judgment, it's not surprising. but based on my experience, both as white house counsel during the early days and later on as

attorney general, this is the right result. the president with respect to official actions has to have total confidence he can make those decisions without fear of prosecution in the future. from the president of a different party. so -- but again, to respond to your question, the fact it wasn't unanimous doesn't mean that the decision was wrong. this was a very, very tough decision. >> judge gonzales, stick around, if you will, let's get back to eamon who's been diving through the decision and has more analysis. >> here's the dissent from justice sotomayor. writing, today's decision to grant former presidents criminal immunity reshapes the institution of the presidency. it makes a mockery of the principle foundational to our constitution and system of government that no man is above the law, relying on little more than its own misguided wisdom

for the need of bold and unhesitating actions by the president. the court gives former president trump all the immunity he asked for and more because our constitution does not shield a former president from answering for criminal and treasonist acts. i dissent. that's the opening of the dissent here. we also have a statement now, guys, from thebidencampaign, putting out somewhat less blistering statement. the biden campaign, senior biden campaign adviser saying, today's ruling doesn't change the facts so let's be clear about what happened on january 6th. donald trump snapped after he lost the 2020 election and encouraged a mob to overthrow the results of a free and fair election. trump is already running for president as a convicted felon for the very same reason he sat idly by while the mob violently attacked the capitol. he thinks he's above the law and is willing to do anything to gain and hold onto power for himself. that's the reaction from the biden campaign, which, of course, can't do anything to undo this decision and justice sotomayor's decision also

doesn't do anything to undo the decision, which is a broad grant of presidential immunity to former presidents, which is something we haven't seen before in the united states. so, this is new territory, guys. >> eamon, thank you. judge gonzales, let me come back to you and quote justice sotomayor. what about this idea of a president conceivably acting in a treasonist fashion, would that no longer be something that could be acted upon, at least on a legal basis, given this immunity claim? >> it would depend on the facts and circumstances, quite frankly. look, i think the court has set up a framework that while i think is probably the right framework, it's going to be a difficult one that will depend on the facts case by case. again, we don't have a situation where presidents have acted with

reckless abandon, ignoring criminal statutes left and right. that doesn't happen. there's a reason why the president relies upon white house counsel and the department of justice in making decisions because they want -- i can speak with respect to president bush. in terms of such tough decisions as gouantanamo, interrogations, geneva, the president relied heavily on advice throughout the administration. i think that's the way most presidents operate. they consult with lawyers and make a decision going forward. in that particular case, you know, the president shouldn't be penalized, should not be indicted and hauled off to a criminal court based upon a decision made in good faith. so, that's why i think this is the right decision. the true test, of course, is going to depend upon the facts

of a particular case. these could be very difficult situations, very difficult determinations. but we don't have a history of presidents acting, doing things that arguably are criminal. >> right. but we make the assumption, judge, our presidents are typically going to act ethically. >> sure. >> it certainly seems at this point more likely than not that former president trump will once again become president trump, at least at this point. and i'm curious what you know about the first trump administration, whether you do share any concerns in terms of what he's going to be asking white house counsel that he can do and what he's going to be told, yeah, you can do that? >> yes, i do have concerns about what he's going to do, quite frankly, given his record. i don't know if he consults with his lawyers and even if he does, will he follow the advice of his lawyers? i don't know. we should be concerned about that. on the other hand, we have to --

if the american people, enough voters have similar concerns, they shouldn't vote for president trump in this next election. that's why i believe integrity, following the rules is incredibly important for the most powerful office in the world. it's for that reason i think the american public should look very, very carefully at the track record of the two candidates -- likely candidates for election of the president of the united states this fall. >> judge, appreciate you taking time. thank you. >> thank you. let's get back to eamon briefly here, get a little bit more from him. >> there's some context from ken dilanian looking at the impact of this on the actual case against the president of the united states and how -- former president of the united states and how difficult it will be now for the department of justice to prosecute that case, saying that anything that is deemed to be immune has to be removed from the case and you can't even hear evidence about it. large chunks of this indictment

will now be out of the purview of the department of justice, and that includes the president's public statements, those are likely immune. those are a big part of the indictment. conversations with the vice president, presumed to be immune. that's going to be difficult for prosecutors. all of the evidence amassed by prosecutors here, a lot of that now becomes swiss cheese as the department of justice looks through and figures out which of the evidence that they plan to bring in this case will now be unobtainable for them. so, david, a real challenge here for the department of justice in figuring out how whether, when to proceed with this case. >> eamon, thank you. obviously, historic ruling we will continue to cover closely with your help. we do have the s&p down fractionally. the nasdaq actually up. we'll get back to covering those t nt urinheexho. we're back after this.

good monday morning and welcome to "money movers." i'm morgan brennan with wilfred frost. we are live at post 9 from the new york stock exchange. coming up, boeing