they'll spend 12 billion on their machines. i just think it is i huge pipeline. 20-month waitlist. i want to own this one. >> interactive brokers is probably one of the better names you can own right now. look for it to break to another new all-time high. >> that will do it for us here on halftime. nasdaq, by the way, hitting its session highs right now or pretty close to it. "the exchange" starts right now. thank you very much, frank, and welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. our strategist just hiked his s&p target to 5700 today. he'll tell us where he's putting money to work. meanwhile, the manufacturing data showing a jobs divide. s&p global reporting the fastest employment increase in nearly two years, but the ism saw a drop in its gauge and goldman sachs notes potential for slight

upside risk to the unemployment rate on friday's jobs report. is the fed's focus about to shift away from inflation and to the labor market? we'll discuss. plus the supreme court handed down a decision in former president trump's election interference case stemming from january 6th, ruling a president has immunity from official acts, but no immunity from unofficial ones. the market taking it as a positive for his election odds with the yield curve steepening and we'll dig into it. the dow has turned 320 points at the highs and we're up a tenth of a percent as the nasdaq who started the day in the red is outperforming leading the way with a two-thirds percent gain. this is despite the climb in yields and treasury yields are higher across the board. rick santelli steepening after the trump-related scotus decision and they spread behind me reaching a peak, as for trump's odds while retaking the climb while it has fallen over the past week and you can see

the predicted odds. chewy picking up earlier gains and aka roaring kitty disclosed a 7% stake. he's now chewy's third largest shareholder and he alluded to the position last tuesday with the picture of the cartoon dog on x. the shares were up on the news as much as 34% and finished their day lower and overall down about 12% since then. now, let's dig further into the june manufacturing data. s&p global reporting business confidence hitting a 19-month low while the index came in at 48.5 missing street estimates and further in contraction, also showed easing inflation with the ism's selling prices increasing at the slowest pace so far this year and one of my next guest says that hopes to set up for the september rate cut. joining us is the chief economist at nationwide and the chief investment officer of morgan stanley investment management and also our own steve liesman who is the only one that didn't work at merrill.

it is good to have you all here. just quickly because there was a lot to digest this morning. what's the main takeaway? >> i think the takeaway is we still have weakness in manufacturing and the extent to which the government is out there helping promote the manufacturing sector with some of the programs from the biden administration is only sort of just barely offsetting what's going on in the private sector. clearly, i think the high interest rates are starting to bite into the manufacturing sector along with the big takeaway that was maybe the prices then. i brought along a chart for you, kelly, which looks at how the ism price index does a pretty good job of leading by about four or five months what's going to happen with the good section of the pce. so it's okay. it goes along there and maybe that suggests either continued, stable and low goods inflation or disinflation in that sense or maybe even heading lower. i'll leave it there.

>> so, kathy, pick up on that, that paves the way for a september cut? >> we see signs and the ism report was just further evidence of that. economic growth moderating and inflation, as well and that overall slowing in growth, that's welcomed to a degree and it is just taking the froth out of activity, and if we're correct that inflation continues to trend lower, and i think particularly on the service side of inflation it's been sticky. we know the good side has been overall economic activity is softer and inflation is actually in deflationary territory and you can see some of the heat come out of the service side on inflation, i think it leaves the door open for the fed to start cutting rates in september, and get 50 basis points of rate cuts in by the end of the year. >> jim, do you agree with that? >> yeah. listen, i think kathy is nailing it right on. look, i mean, lower inflation, if we do get it, it opens the

door for that rate cut. when i think about the markets it's a question of is good news or is bad news bad news? right now it seems like bad news is good news meaning that if we are having a slowing in the economy and if that does lead to lower inflation, that's good because it opens the door for fed rate cuts, but at some point this rise -- this potential rise in unemployment or potential slowing of the economy that weakens employment, you know, that effectively could bite into consumption, and right now companies have been -- companies have had the wind at their back that they've been able to raise prices to maintain margin, but if the unemployment rate starts to rise and if the economy starts to slow fast enough then companies are not going to be able to do that and that could start to put downward pressure on the broader parts of the markets and we're already seeing that. the broader segments of the markets are slightly higher, but not anything great. we know it's ten stocks that are driving the majority of the

market. so for them it might be okay, but i get a little bit concerned that bad news may become bad news at some point in the second half of the year. >> are you the strategist that just raised your price target to 5700? i didn't think you're a price target guy. >> no, i'm not a price target kind of guy. no price target for me. when i looked at 2025 earnings, and let's take 2024 out of the equation. if we're looking at earnings around 275, and $277 which represents a really good growth rate in earnings growth and you multiply that by a 19.7 or 20 p-e, you will get levels in the equity markets about where they are today. so i think this is about where we are supposed to be in a relatively optimistic scenario. if we start to get a setback, unemployment rate rises and you get a pinch on consumption and margin starts to fall. there is some downside scope to this. i'm optimistic and i'm still

bullish on the market, but caution is warranted. >> steve, do you think they'll start paving the way for a september cut here? >> i think the data has been in line with it. i'm trying to think when you hear the train schedule, they tell you that the trains are running on or close to schedule, i think that the decline in inflation is running on or close or even a little bit ahead of schedule. the fed has 2.8 and not everyone is onboard with that and 2.8 is the median forecast for the committee and for the end of the year we're running on 2.6. i want to peck up on what jim said, i've not done yet, and i've not read kathy's piece, as well and ukg is a software sector, they say wooe see the labor force completely flat in

june. no particular points of weakness and also no particular points of strength. >> no particular points of weakness -- we're in this middle ground, kathy and some would say the fed needs to cut to keep the expansion going. are you one of them? >> i am. i think, you know, i think jim and steve make very good points. the risks are to the down side of economic activity. we know that the interest rates are having an impact and it has in the housing market completely stalled the existing market, and this investment has been dampened greatly because of it. so they still have an impact and now maybe we're starting to see consumers start to feel the weight of that because they've run through the $2 trillion worth of pent-up pandemic-related savings. so i think we're at this interesting point where consumer spending is aligned with employment and income growth, current income growth. they can't rely on the savings. they've run down.

in fact, we saw on friday the savings rate increase and that's interesting. consumers are shifting to a more cautious stance. i think there are downside risks here and the fed if they don't cut rates they risk being too restrictive for being too long of a period. >> steve? >> yeah. real quick, i just wanted to report that the atlanta fed brought the gdp to 1.7% much more in line and they've been running as high in the beginning of the quarter and now they're down at 1.7 which is just at or a little bit below potential. >> are you surprised that manufacturing has failed to go back into positive territory? i think a lot of people were going to hit an idea and be back in positive activity and it's a leading indicator for the economy and it remains mired contraction. >> yeah expect exactly. this is a lot about inventories being built up and where is the cyclical and where is the broadening of the recovery. if that's not coming through then i don't think you'll see

manufacturing pick up meaningfully. i don't think it collapses, but i don't think it picks up meaningfully. if i take this conversation a step further and i think about this, i really see this as the inflexion point right now between inflation and unemployment. so for the first half of this year we've been worried about is inflation coming down? will it come down enough to make the fed comfortable with interest rates? i think we're making good progress on inflation. i think that's actually happening. now the concern shift toward the unemployment rate and it will shift toward the jobs situation. one of the magical things that for the first half of this year is that jobs have been good and jobs have been strong and that's kept demand up and equity prices higher and that's been helpful, but if now the narrative is flipping to inflation is old news and we think that's under control at this point and now we need to worry about the unemployment rate and if that's starting to trend higher, i think that starts to become a bit of a headwind and that's what we need to worry about for the second half of the year.

>> you're right and here comes the train right on time. goldman writing that it has upside risk to the unemployment rate. steve, we'll give you the last word. >> you know, mary daly has talked about this and a couple of other committee members have talked what kathy talked about. daly puts it gingerly and says they're worth watching and maybe others are more concern peed he. i wrote an email to this person, and i said here are the reasons the fed should cut and they all made sense based upon the inflation data and the person wrote back. yeah. missing everything but a zero or 100,000 on the employment report. so if kathy is right and some of the other indicators are right and the fed does get actual weakness in improvement that could seal the deal or move up the calendar for rate cuts. >> you see jim nodding and maybe it would be nice if they could adjust policy before we get to

the point of zeros or negatives. in any case, we'll leave it there. we appreciate it. our steve liesman and kathy boostjancic. president macron's controversial call for a snap election appears to be backfiring on his centrist party. our seema modi has the details and for investors. >> the financial markets are getting relief after showing far-right leader marine le pen winning and off of the best levels of the day and the euro hitting 107 against the dollar. more importantly the premium that investors demand to hold french debt, that has come down though just slightly. it is still elevated and jefferies european team writes that markets are still particularly worried about the fiscal implications about a far-right win and how le pen's party will highlight france's deficit which came in at 5.5% last year and its debt picture

currently at 111% of gdp. le pen has pledged to vote down clean energy policy and that's starting to be priced into the market. we saw construction and energy stocks higher on the day including votalia. including the automotive names. those stocks also ending higher on the day. they are betting that the euro will trade at 108 against the dollar by year end and remember the last time the euro traded in parity with the dollar, kelly, was in the fall of 2022. the focus now turns to the second round turned to the elections and many experts have been telling us don't put enough into the first round and there's enough data that we need to get the crystallized picture we're there. >> where else should we be looking at macro impact, seema. >> inflation data where expectations are and that inflation continues to come lower at 2.3 versus the 2.6 europe was at last month.

is this the role of the european central bank which as you know, has already cut rates before the fed. can they continue to? right now the market is anticipating one more rate cut from the ecb in september and that will be key. we'll see how the central bank responds if at all or addresses it. >> seema, thank you very much. seema modi. the crypt onno industry as a whole had a day in washington. first president biden is in the midst of a fund-raising blitz after thursday's debate and the supreme court ruling on president trump's high-stakes immunity case. we'll break it down from d.c. and get implications for november and the markets. "the exchange" is back after this. ♪ ♪ this is "the exchange" on cnbc. it's all the things that keep this world turning.

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welcome back to "the exchange." talk about whiplash in washington from the presidential debate to the supreme court striking down chevron friday morning, we have more news out of the executive and judicial branches that could have a major impact on the election and the economy. we have team coverage inside the beltway. eamon jaf vers is digging throu the supreme court decision, and the post-debate fund-raising blitz. eamon, let's start with you. kelly, the supreme court ruled on partisan lines this morning that former presidents

have legal immunity from prosecution for official acts conducted while in office. the decision likely severely damages the special council's ability to prosecute the case against trump for the former president's conduct for the follow-up to the insurrection on capitol hill and it can have sweeping changes to the presidency itself. the opinion written by chief justice john roberts said we conclude under our constitutional constitutional structure of separated powers, the nature of the presidential power requires that a former president have some immunity during his tenure in office. liberals weighed in with scathing opinions, when he uses his official powers in any way underthe majority's reasoning, he now will be insulated from criminal prosecution. orders the navy's seal team 6 to assassinate a political rival? immune. organizes a military coup to hold on to power?

immune. take as i bribe in exchange for a pardon? immune, immune, immune. the former president witelcomed it, writing today's historic decision by the supreme court should end all of zoocrooked jo biden's witch hunts against me. how to proceed in his case against the former president and unclear where all of that is going to land, but clearly some legal dust has to settle here before all sides can move on, kelly. back over to you. >> eamon, quickly, before we move on. how did the majority have the criticism from sotomayor. you saw john roberts writing that, some of the dissents from the liberal justices were overwrought suggesting their responses were out of scale with what the supreme court is saying today. clearly, sotomayor, jackson and others did not feel that way.

>> elsewhere, eamon, a big day for the court. it wasn't just that decision. there was more. what else came down? >> that's right. not just this one. in a pair of social media cases, the justices sent a set of state laws back to lower courts this morning arguing that companies have a first amendment rights to determine the rules for content on their services and in the regulatory authority, the court held 6-3 that a business can sue the government over regulation of debit card swipe fees even though the deadlines on that had expired and that likely opens federal agencies to a slew of lawsuits ordering regulations and a further blow to regulatory agencies in washington from the supreme court this week. >> an area they have been the most aggressive. thanks so much. eamon javers. let's get over to megan with the post-debate fund-raising numbers. megan cassella, what can you

tell us? >> the biden campaign prompted calls from some democrats for biden to step aside. >> it raised $33 million with 26 million coming from the grassroots and they were the two best days ever and spend the weekend trying to reassure his wealthy donors that he was doing all right. i spoke with one attendee who described the mood as concerned enthusiasm while the debate was a cold shower shock for democrats about the state of the race with some people now more engaged because they're more worried about losing than they were before thursday. the best news for biden right now is that some of his biggest donors are sticking with him and with the party. linkedin co-founder reid hoffmann and demity rimelhorn is reminding donors that they have a choice between an old and wise candidate with a strong team or one that is corrupt and self-interested. >> if they haven't already

decided they're reluctant and are a little bit of double doubting and not sure if they want to get involved, and you have to bring them into the conversation by reminding them that it is going to be one of these two, and so how do they feel about that? >> in a sign, kelly, that some jitters do remain iss, the bide campaign will be holding calls saying that biden is still the one to beat trump. >> thank you, megan cassella. one key source in down ballot races has been the crypto industry. coinbase contributing $155 million to fairshake and the war chest seems to be working with 33 of 35 fair shake candidates winning the primary elections and joining us to describe what's next is coinbase's chief policy officer. faryar, welcome. >> thanks, kelly. good to be here. let's dive in. what do you think is significant

in this electoral cycle that has the industry so emboldened to make sure that their agenda, whatever that might look like is implemented. >> there are 52 million americans who own crypto and ultimately they deserve to have a seat at the table and what we have in the industry is to create the tools to be a part of the process and we are pretty excited about the progress we've made and we've seen candidates up and down the ballot embrace crypto and find the voice on the issue and that's been very gratifying. >> you are focused on congressional races if i'm not mistaken. no money from fair hshake is spt on the presidential election? we've given them funding and they'll have to make decisions in terms of how they deploy the funds, but their focus is very much on returning a more pro-innovation, pro-crypto, pro-economic freedom congress next year and they're well under way to doing that. >> it returned an sec guidance

encouraging banks not to have crypto, including three or four of which you're all facing re-election bid. do you think these are people who will be criticized in the future for being under the thumb of the crypto industry or something like that or is the crypto industry then going to be a part of the american financial system which itself is ironic given the way that it started? >> well, when you have 17% to 20% of the adult population embracing something and seeing it as an answer to a financial system that they feel just doesn't serve their interest is something that policymakers have to be responsive to. there's always been a generational dimension in crypto and younger members get it and more readily, even older members do, but there's a transition that we're in and you're seeing it among a lot of the candidates who are in tough races who are looking around and seeing that there is a lot more there, and their constituents who have embraced this particular tech and they brought an open mind to

it, and we are glad to help them do that. >> as i believe is the case is after you guys were not registering this clearing agency and so forth. does the chevron decisions from the supreme court on friday, do you think, give you an upper hand as this fight continues? >> our issue has been to get regulatory clarity. to get one is to be adamant and try to use the uncertainy and try to drive the industry offshore and to host some accountability there and i think the chevron decision ultimately really cast a really strong, you know, shadow over what the sec has done and ultimately tells them that they owe the public some obligation to provide clarity, and the chevron decision was in significant part a decision with regard to the importance of the administrator

administratorive procedures act that it violated in the context of the crypto industry. hopefully this will be a transition now towards a more fair and transparent process of rule making for all of us, all americans including those in the crypto sector, but we'll have to see how it plays out. >> that's t.d. cowan noted that while the decision could be a short-term win it could stall crypto legislation more broadly? just react to that. >> i don't know. you know, we're in a very partisan environment and yet we were able to get 71 democrats to join virtually every republican in the house to pass legislation. we are now in the senate. we have a decent chance at getting committee action, potentially floor action and potentially passage of a really good market structure bill, leader schumer is working very hard at it and the ranking member boazman and a whole cross section of members have stepped up and said it's time to provide clarity and falling behind vis-a-vis the rest of the g20. who knows? legislation is always hard, but

i feel pretty hard about the chances that we have and any incremental progress that we make is very important and so we're fighting for that every day. >> faryar, good to check in with you. >> thank you for having me on. coming up, crypto is not the only part of the market that could see big changes in november, the tech sector might look different under a second trump presidency and we'll dig into that scenario in today's tech check. as we head to break here are names hitting an all-time ghhi and eli lilly lil', evercore and stifel, that and more after the break. buys them? that's mean or, what if everybody buys them? oh, i hadn't thought of that that's probably not gonna happen can we handle that kind of traffic? the network can handle it! i downloaded eight hours of true crime stories

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♪ welcome back to "the exchange." interesting playing out today, the dow is well off its 300 point highs and the ten-year treasury, that's up almost 25 basis points over the past week to over 4.50. up nine points to 5470 roughly for the s&p. boeing is said to buy spirit aerosystems in the $4.7 billion all-stock deal now. they agreed to pay $37.25 per share in boeing stock.

boeing had spun off the operations if it became spirit. spirit shares are off 3.5% and now outgoing ceo dave calhoun says bringing spirit back inhouse will outline the workforces. he expects the deal to close next year while it is subject to regulators. airbus has reached an agreement where the european manufacturer will get half a billion from the company to acquire their money-losing manufacturing lines and spirit was split. they had a boeing piece and airbus piece and airbus shares are up 2.5% and floor and decor is moving lower after they disclosed a shore position in the stock saying they faced between 40% and 60% downside risk in the intermediate term and we'll had the you know when we hear back and shares are down over 4%. over to tyler mathisen for the cnbc news update. >> thank you very much. house republicans sued

attorney general merrick garland over access to audio of president biden's special council interview. today's legal action asked to enforce the subpoena and overrule the president's argument of executive privilege. house republicans and the department of justice have been going back and forth for months over the reportings and it was in contempt of congress last month and the transcripts have been turned over and it's the taping they.upon border crossings have fall tonight lowest monthly number since president biden took office in 2021. a homeland security official said border patrol agents apprehended just over 84,000 migrants and that's 30% lower than in may. the white house attributing the decline to the new asylum restrictions announced early last month. customs and border protection will release the numbers this month though cbs news first reported those june numbers. chipotle is going for the goal. it will wrap its burritos in

gold foil to celebrate the summer olympic games. you'll start to see the golden burritos on july 25th. the openinger is ceremony is op day and you can catch the olympics, kelly on nbc and peacock, as well. >> how great. did you watch the hurdles last night? >> i watched the hurdles and the women's 400-meter hurdles. great stuff. >> i love the golden burrito idea. see you soon. the senate sees rate cuts on the horizon and that's one that will drive the s&p 500 by year's end. check out birkenstock shares moving higher. ubs upgrading the name to high saying it has new conviction to the upside for shares and highlighting a successful expansion strategy in the direct to consumer business and a ramp up in asia pacific and a big contrast to nike's performance. head over to cnbc.com.

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♪ ♪ welcome back to "the exchange." stocks are higher as we kick off the back half and my next guest raised his s&p price target for

the year end to 5700 putting him among some of the street's biggest bulls. so what's got him so positive? well, a september cut, strong earnings and economic growth between 2% and 2.5% next year and joining me now is chris senec, chief investment strategist at wolf research. why late to the party? just go ahead and make it 6,000 at this point. >> yeah. we'll take it one step at a time as we're entering a weaker sen, i think we might be close to that, but the earnings outlook is really strong, and it continues to be this bifurcated economy between the services sector doing well and a good sector taking a breather. we saw that with the ism report on manufacturing and early this morning and we look at where margins have come in for the s&p 500 companies year to date. they've surprised to the upside and our earnings model and we think they'll continue to as gdp will remain resilient. ai continues to be a very

dominant theme and given the weight of big tech in s&p earnings it's 21% now of earnings, 31% of the market cap. we have a high degree of conviction that company, at least on the tech side are going to continue to beat numbers over the coming quarters here, and if we take a 21 times eps number to our 270 number next year, we arrive at 5700. >> got it. >> so, i mean, it is reassuring what you just said. we're talking about earnings growth and higher profit margins. sounds good. yes, it sounds like valuations are structurally higher than they were in the past, but does anything worry you out there in terms of it being a bubble? >> no, i don't think we're in a bubble yet. i think the spending is real if you look at the earnings versus the fundamentals such as nvidia, microsoft or meta or alphabet. they've tracked it very closely and that's why i continue to think that as long as earnings continue to surprise the upside, revisions continue to trend

positive and there's probably even more upside to our numbers as the year progresses. >> what are you worried about this summer? people talk about seasonals and there's the election looming and what do you think could play out. last year we saw an oil price spike and rates pressure and we've been through it before. that's for sure. >> certainly there are unexpected twist and turns with respect to the election. i'm worried about the u.s. government and i don't think those issues have gone away. deficits continue to rise and yields are up and recently are the odds that have risen for a trump win and none of the issues have gone away. in fact, if you think about last fall when the government kind of kicked the can down the road in terms of the issues with the debt ceiling and everything else, you know, issuance is up a lot and these issues haven't gone away. so i'm worried about a rate shock more than an oil shock as we any. >> those two, the rate shock and

the trump re-election is connected and people think there are concerns about the long end because of the tax cut continuation or what have you. >> indeed. if you look at what happened in the 2016 election cycle and even in the 2020 blue wave, bond yields in 2016 went up almost 75 basis points in a matter of months, right? and i think something as dynamic could occur this time around and even when you have the blue wave they went up 40 or 50 basis points and so i think both parties will continue to spend money. there will be a reconciliation bill next year, in any case to extend part or all of the trump tax cuts and there will likely be other spending that will be thrown on top and it's too much of a temptation to not spend a year apart. >> the other question to ask about trump's re-election there could be an impact from a tax point of view. what do you think those are and

how can they flow back into the market? >> there are expiring provisions on the individual side with the individual cuts are next year and they have to extend part or all of those and that can impact at the high end because of the spending that we've seen over the last couple of years is because of the wealth effect and on the corporate provisions there are some smaller nuance, if you will, if not wonky provisions for the foreign drive to tangible income and the global tax set to rise 300 to 400 basis points and that could cost companies if they're not going to be spending and be more cautious on what they do with their cash. >> for now, chris, we'll leave it there. thank for your time. 5700, off we go. >> chris senec with wolf research. coming up, the biden administration has spent the

last four years to keep the tech in check as they approach $3 trillion and more, but could a second trump term undo tseho efforts and we'll keep it today in today's "tech check" when "the exchange" comes back.

welcome back. between last week's debate and today's supreme court ruling, silicon valley is thinking more than ever about what another trump presidency would mean for the tech industry. let's go to deidre bosa to break it down for today's tech check. >> call it a trump tech basket. names that would benefit from a lighter touch when it comes to m and a intervention and a broader deregulatory agenda and more tariffs from the deal environment and that could mean more strategic m and a and stifled or at least wary of doing deals under the current regulatory regime and jonathan cantor and the biden administration. that could be bullish for the small and mid-cap software names

that have struggled under the platform shift that seems to be benefiting the large incumbents and jen ai native start-ups and leavinging a lot of them behind and that's the ieber economy, doordash, lyft, instacart and pres president biden is -- a trump administration could move away from that gig battle. shein, two of the fastest growing e-commerce apps in america and benefit amazon, etsy, wayfair and those dollar stores in particular. social media is a wild card. tiktok ban, an obvious target in the a trump administration, but also some american names like meta, google, snap. remember, they are favorite punching bags of the former president and he doesn't have a majority shareholder of his own social media competitor, djt,

there are still a lot of supporters, kelly, but ever since the debate last week, they're trying to think about what another trump term would mean for tech. >> under the biden administration, big tech has become the biggest it's ever been. >> exactly, and a lot of folks would attribute that to sort of these ai underpinnings that genai shift and when a talk about how they've benefitted and that's the magnificent seven or six if you want to leave out tesla where it's the small software names and midcap software names that are supposed to have benefitted from this and it's the next level taking part in the ai shift and a lot of folks think that maybe the incumbents can do strategic m & a activity given how tough the regulators are. >> it does seem as though the deal-making angle is the most tangible. there are plenty companies who feel they can't sell to a large publicly traded firm. anyway, they feel like they

can't sell their company and if they do it will be held up forever and they're deciding not to do m and a to see what's going to happen in november. if there were a trump win and probably the biggest winners would be goldman and the law firms. >> exactly. the investment banks and the law firms doing those deals. absolutely. that could be a big boon as well. >> we appreciate it. deidre bosa. by the way, don't forget matt garman since taking the job in the beginning of june and that will be on closing bell overtime. coming up, one of america's biggest beer drinking holiday is right around the corner, but consumers' tastes are changing. we'll speak to the heineken usa ceo about what she's seeing when "the exchange" returns.

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the suds, just opting for the non-alcoholic kind. heineken's non-alcoholic beer sales are growing rapidly on top of last year's 30% growth already. joining us is the ceo of heineken usa. it's great to have you here. welcome and happy early 4th. >> thank you so much, kelly. and thank you for having we and happy early fourth to you. >> okay, i've heard people rave about it, what's it, the athletic -- the non-alcoholic beer that's all the rage these day. >> heineken 0.0, kelly! >> that's right! this category is really taking it off, is it not? >> yes, it is! we are the pioneer of the category. we launched in january of 2018 in the states, two years earlier, we launched around the world. we are the number one zero-alcohol beer in the united states. we're clear five points ahead of our nearest competitor, and we don't shout enough about that from the rooftops. that's why i'm here today, we

see more and more people opting for moderation. not instead of, but in addition to. so we see that 94% of non-alcoholic beer buyers in their shopping basket, they also have alcoholic products. that's 94%. that's a big number. people are just looking for more choice, and we're so happy that we have this beautiful heineken 0.0 brand that they actually have fell in love with since day one. >> i'm like a 3, 4, 5% myself. but there's something about zero where i go, well, why bother? i sort of lose the plot at this point, but other people are clearly loving it. and maybe you can tell me, other stock prices will, hard seltzer is kind of, i don't want to call it passe, but it's on the way out. it's time for something new and non-alcoholic beer oddly enough seems to be that thing. >> i think non-alcoholic beer is an enduring trend. people are looking for moderation. i mean, kelly, you know -- if i call for a pizza with my boys who are 19 and 20 and i'm

driving, i feel like a beer with my pizza, i'll have a heineken 0.0. seltzer -- the seltzer phenomenon, and we see those horrible numbers this year and last year, i think that was aided by covid, where consumers were looking -- were more curious and wanted to try new things. now we see the emergence of ready-to-drink spirit cocktails. that's another trend, i don't want to say it's bad, because we don't know yet, but the non-alcoholic market is not only gen-z, but across all cohorts are looking for another option, whether it be health and wellness, occasion-based. they want a quality gr great-tasting product that doesn't have alcohol, and they don't want to drink alcohol. >> i think we should be thinking about this not as a beer substitute, but a soda substitute. a lot of americans have become so health conscious, why am i going to guzzle 40 grams of sugar with some chemical product -- and i do think of beer as kind of a more

healthful, organic option, but to get it to be non-alcoholic, is it kind of like decaffeinated process, where it's overprocessed? >> no. it took over 20 years for our master brewers to perfect getting the alcohol out. so it has that great beer taste. 69 calories never tasted so great. and now you can. >> so you guys were kind of a p pioneer this space. we've seen ups and downs, we've seen bud light losing a lot of market share the past year or so. are we overall drinking a lot less beer than we did in the past? what are the kind of macro numbers here for beer consumption? >> when you look at the macro numbers, we've seen ups and downs over the last 20 years. i think from a share perspective, of course, spirits has come into the party and gained a lot more share, but that's through those ready-to-drink cocktails. if you look at spirits overall,

yes, they're up. if you exclude the re ready-to-drink cocktails, they're down. consumers are more curious. they're opting to drink more on some occasions, and in others, they're opting to drink less. that's where heineken 0.0 comes in. we're up for the fifth year in a row. new entrants have come into the category, and that's good for a non-alcoholic beer, but we pioneered it and we have reignited that category, and we're very proud of it and we are number one. >> i'm curious, we're going to have -- whoever wants to come over is going to come. it's my son's birthday as well. i'm going to go seek out some heineken 0.0, and see how it goes. >> please tell me! please tell me how you like it! >> i'll report back, because i still don't get it. i have to trite, i think, to understand. maggie, thanks so much! >> you will actually -- the first thing you'll say is, it tastes like beer. >> right! but don't i won't -- if i'm with all of these little kids, don't want tyke the edge off? maybe i need the harder stuff.

anyway, thank you, maggie, we appreciate your time. >> thank you, kelly. >> maggie is heineken usa's ceo. before we go, the boston celtics are for sale. the 2024 nba champions ownership group boston basketball partners now intends to sell all shares of the team, citing, quote, estate and family planning considerations. the group's board expects to sell a majority interest this year or early next with the balance closing in 2028. wic groesbeck will remain governor of the team until then mep bought the celtics back in 2002 for just $360 million. no guidance yet on this year's price tag. and that's it for "the exchange." i'll catch you on the other side with tyler mathisen for "power n'gonyer" dot awhe. see that? that's like the gap in my health insurance. gap in your health insurance? yeah, it didn't cover everything when i got hurt. good thing i had aflac. (aflac duck) hmmm the cash i got from aflac helped pay for medical expenses, groceries, rent. it really helped close that gap. (whisper) go, go, go! (group) yay! go aflac! go duck!

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inevitable. ♪♪ ♪♪ welcome to "power lunch," everybody, alongside kelly evans. i'm tyler mathisen. welcome to the second half of the year, july 1. investors hoping it will be much like the first tech in the crosshairs in europe right now, though. meta's new model could be in breach of europe's new law. and french anti-trust regulators may be prepping anti-trust charges against nvidia. >> plus, with another contentious election season upon us, companies can expect to be caught in the crossfire of recent issues and culture war. and the best thing to do is to know their customer. let's