by november of 2025. unless there was a dramatic change in sales patterns, nine consecutive quarters of drops. so wasn't looking good. >> hardware company trying to be a services company. >> but you still use yours every now and then. >> i know. i need a new one. thanks for watching "power lunch." "closing bell" starts now. welcome to cl"closing bell." this make or break hour begins with the steady stock market. the broad s&p 500 working on a tenth straight day with a move of less than half a percent. the indexes have strengthened through the afternoon. back to the up days than down days over that quiet streak. the scorecard for 60 minutes to go in regulation, the s&p 500 and nasdaq composite on pace for a new closing high. underlying market firmer it than the last couple of weeks. the s&p 10 points in record

closing territory now. tesla and apple contributors. that's allowing further weakness in nvidia, which remains over 13% below its all-time highs. treasury yields have calmed after yesterday's sharp rise. and oil remains quiet after its recent run higher. that takes us to the talk of the tape with the s&p 500, pushing past the 15% gain for the year. is the slow grind more a show of the bull market's resilience or perhaps evidence of short-term fatigue? here to discuss this is adam parker, research founder and a cnbc contributor. looking on the surface, not a lot to complaining about. 5,500 on the s&p. the vix is below 12 as it's trading right now. the macro seems quiet enough for stocks to rotate and do their thing. is there anything you would look at and say we're missing something here? the market maybe is either too

complacent about something or it's got it right? >> we are not going to appreciate every quarter the way we did q4 last year, q1 this year. we will take whatever, 4% and change every quarter. forever would be fine. i think that the three kind of bold sort of legs of the stool, margins up for the average company. you look at chicago fed or the bloomberg financial conditions look pretty easy. and this dream of a.i. earnings growth, years three through ten, seems pretty dreamy, right. so i think that's intact. we will see. i am not expecting to get any minimum wage prerelease on earnings this week. it's a weird week with the holiday in the middle of the week. normally, you worry about a reset the second half. i don't think we will get that. i think so far, you know, sort of a positive skew to the outcomes. the way you teed up the question, could anything worry me? of course. >> you could look for something, without a doubt.

to be honest, it's been a mantra of yours that the margins for the average company are going up. if that's the case, why isn't the stock price of the average company keeping pace or even going up in the last three months? >> so, obviously, small caps are down. one of the consensus things, we are doing our big second half of the year outlook webcast next tuesday. i like to look at the consensus view ahead. i had an intern read 15 of the out looks from all over the place. there is one out there, small caps will do well. and i think it's always prudent to disagree with the consensus, and in this case i happen to, i don't think small caps do -- i think they are an inferior asset class. a lot have structural issues, it don't have the constitution in terms of tech and industrials and the themes you want to be overweight growing faster than gdp. the outlook is not as good.

>> even the medium company in the russell 2000 large cap, obviously, there is something working and not working, but curious if you feel as if the market is essentially waiting for the demonstrated resumption of earnings growth at the average company in the third or fourth quarter this career? >> there probably more downward revisions to the small caps. like an anticipated relative revision game. the second half the numbers always go up. there is a human optimism, six months forward will be better. this case, it's a little bit bigger than average. to the extend you worry in september, we found the biggest monthly revisions in september because the new york folks go -- come back from the hamptons or cape cod in massachusetts or wherever, california, and they sharpen their pencil in september and say my numbers are too high. i think okay for this july earnings season. i think september, that's when

maybe the average company has a little bit more risk to their numbers. >> yeah. i guess the other question is you talk to clients who for the most part whose job it is to create value over and above what the index can give you. it's got to be frustrating, it's got to be as if they are competing against this force because of the a.i.-driven moves in the mega caps. i feel like that frustration has, it's almost kind of rebuilt the wall of worry. even though the market is at a new high by the index level, it's as if people are not fully trusting what's going on. does that make sense? >> yeah. the biggest five companies are 30% of the s&p now. so it's become, my view for the last three years has basically been i don't know anything about the big companies that nobody else does. hundreds of analysts cover them. they are macro stocks. microsoft usually goes up,

right? and it's hoard to know something that nobody else knows. i would rather market weight those group and then take my shots elsewhere are where the company-specific risk is higher where being a fundamentalist can add value. is there a deal, a litigation, complex capital structure, deploying capital in an interesting way. i think that's where the analysts should focus and take bigger bets than normal. look where the markets are. concentrated long only, eight, ten stocks, people love that. it's been huge growth exposure with low net, double-digit returns or huge risk and be right. the diversified thing hasn't worked for much of the last decade. >> yeah. absolutely true. let's bring in david of ubs global wealth management. david, i know in terms of your formal s&p target, you don't necessarily envision too much upside from here.

which way do you think the market is leaning here? >> yeah, mike, so, yeah, our formal target is 5,500 for year end, which, obviously, we are basically -- we do have an upside case of 57. i would take the big picture here and similar to the comments, i think the environment is still pretty favorable. we have got a durable growth environment. things are maybe cooling off, but they are definitely not cratering. excess demand for labor is getting back in better balance. durable growth, broad ming profit growth in the large cap space and the disinflation is still entrained. that opens up the potential for the fed to cut rates. that's a pretty good environment, durable growth, fed has your back, and then the a.i. story on top of it. so it's a favorable mix that's driven markets up until this point and we think that favorable mix generally remains

in place. >> to the fed perhaps having clearance to eventually ease, let's listen to what jay powell had to say speaking to our sara at the forum today about progress that has been seen on inflation. >> we have made quite pate of progress in bringing inflation back down to our target. while the labor market has remained strong and growth continued, we want that process to continue. i think the last reading and the one before it to -- inflation, the one before it, to a lesser extent, suggest that we are getting back on a disinflationary path. we want to be more confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2% before we start the process of reducing how tight our policy is of loosening policy. >> yeah, we seem to want to be more confident. seemed to be reassuring words h especially when he gave a nod later to the possibility of a further weakening in the labor

market, they don't want to allow that to get away from them. maybe some focus on some of the softening economic numbers we have had for a bit. >> and when you -- sure, when you look at the inflation numbers, too, it's really housing and insurance that are sort of the last two areas that are standing pretty sticky, and we believe as we go through the second half of this year and into next year, those will continue to sort of dissipate in terms of their strength and contribution to overall inflation. so i think that inflation path is set. really it's more about the economy and the labor market. is that going to soften sort of more so than the overall inflation numbers. so it's a little bit of a race, i think, in our opinion in terms of which one is going to soften faster. >> right. and i guess that has been, if there has been moments when the market has expressed concern about this, it is when yields are going up perhaps and people aren't sure if the fed is going

to make a mistake or the economy can handle it. as an investor, what are you advising in terms of a posture now in terms of playing offense or defense with regard to economic cycles? >> sure. so i think going back to adam's comments about small caps, again they are correlate add little bit more to the path and expectation of interest rate cuts. we saw that in the fourth quarter last year when the expectation for interest rate cuts were growing. small caps really outperformed during that timeframe. so if we continue to see that expectation continue and the fed rate cuts are going to happen in the second half, i think small caps could be an area of some opportunity just because they are a little bit nor interest rate sensitive. because of that, they are a little bit lower in that quality spectrum, large companies continue to generate so much free capital cash flow and high-quality names that have solid healthy balance sheets

that investors i think grar tate towards that large cap quality area. >> yeah. adam, you hear that, right? essentially, you have to wait for a moment when the fed is giving the green light for lower quality stuff to work or your intern, a.i. program, whoever it is, feels as if people want to play that reverse? >> to be clear, if the market rips higher, i would agree small caps will at least pro rata participate if not outperform. it's a sideways to cautious. david's comments resonated with me. i think the challenge everyone has when they have to set a price target, i need multiple expansion to believe in a lot of upside to get that. if you are bullish, sure, you can own lower quality small caps that are rate sensitive. if your background, it's hard to sketch out 4, 5% bull case returns, raise the target 5, 7%

return, to buy small catches i need to believe it's going up 10, 15%. if you are bullish as heck, sure on small caps. >> we are in the second half of the yeerlt. we are in the process of figuring out what earnings on a multiyear basis to next year. i wonder about the industrials area of the market. i know it's one you favor because i am looking at the charts and they have kind of lost a little bit of steam, starting to roll a little bit, even though they have been this leadership group and i think widely embraced for a lot of the reasons for the cap ex-boom and everything else. is there anything you see in the group that concerns you or suggests there is an opportunity here now? >> mike, i would say we see an opportunity. if you look at the manufacturing index, it's been in the bottoming process for several months now, and just given where inventories are in the good part of the economy, i think we will see continuous improvements in ism. it's not going to be a straight

line, but i think generally moving in that direction. thefreight recession should be ending. that has been long in the tooth. you have got the secular trends in terms of the jon shoring, the infrastructure spending. i would say one of the areas that is worth watching and more election-related is if the republicans do come back into the -- if trump takes the white house, the republicans have the congress, will -- what's going to happen to some of the incentives for green energy, electrification, things like that. that's probably a risk around the election. but in general, the manufacturing and especially the global manufacturing cycle looks like it is bottoming. and i think if you want to play rate cuts, i think some of these cyclicals within large cap like industrials i think to me is more interesting than small caps, which i if fully agree with the comments previously. they are lower quality. >> i imagine it's pretty much a

given that your clients are going to be wondering about election impacts and mostly the market wants an election to be over and they will try to price the various themes and policies as possible as we get clarity on them. how would you -- from a top down level, how would you think about the market path between here and through the election? >> sure. so i think elections and politics create a lot of noise for the markets. we have seen that sort of across the pond in europe and in france. so can we have some of that sort of sentiment and volatility creep into u.s. markets? absolutely. i think we'll see how it all turns out. but usually after the election, marks markets tend to take off. we to be in that same scenario post-november. >> yeah. they do take off. i know that one of the exceptions was when there was not a clear outcome in 2000. there was a delay there.

but adam, you mentioned financial conditions. they remain pretty loose. i suppose you would say that, although nominal ten-year treasury yields, again lifting towards the higher end of the range. some are focusing on some corporate credit spreads that are off the lows, still super strong. you have to squint to really see anything here. the question is, have you seen the best for the financial condition tailwinds? >> the problem -- not to get too technical, the classic ones, goldman's bloomberg, the two most common, they are a little, like spreads and equity market are in there. they go up. looks like conditions are easy. if you talk to friends in real estate or other areas, it's hard to get it from a regional bank. so i think on the ground conditions are a little tighter than maybe we see on those well

known metrics. if you are satalking s&p 500 an big companies, generally okayism think what can cause issues, a slowdown in the consumer. credit cards delinquencies. you could get that sort of issue. the macro thing i focus on, stronger dollar. that could derail some of the optimism. we see that, that could come from either policy differentials in the u.s. or europe. if you look back in q2, looney, pound, euro, the dollar was unchanged. it was just the yen i look for the yen in earning call transcripts there. aren't that many. u.s. companies aren't -- >> not a ton. and david, in terms of the macro and how it filters into the markets here, we have a reassuring job openings report today, softer but still strong labor market. we have a jobs number on friday. the economic surprises have been to the downside recently. do you perceive there is a little bit more slowdown risk than the market appreciates?

>> i think it's undisputable we have seen a busiest a cooling off in the economy. @same time, i don't think things are rolling hard. i think this whole cycle has not really been consumer credit or even corporate credit driven. it's been more about just income gains and the government transfers that the private sector has had. so i don't think you are going to see an abrupt decline in activity because the credit spigot has not been a big driver and it hasn't been completely turned off as we were just talking about earlier. so i think what it means is that it gives the fed more confidence that they can start to dial back some restrictiveness. so,k it it's the soft landing c. i think it's lining up in that direction. cooling off in the economy. opens up the door for the pfed o

make calibration cuts. that's our expectation the next search months. >> yeah, certainly the preferred path. we will see how it goes. adam, david, thanks so much. all right. over to seema mody. >> 42 minutes left in the market here. eli lilly and novo nordisk shares are falling after president biden demanded price cuts on their blockbuster weight loss and diabetes drugs. there is that news from the fda approving eli lilly's alzheimer's treatment making it the second alzheimer's treatment available in the u.s. we will look at shares of eli lilly down totality 9 of 1%. to industrials. ge aerospace extending the ceo's contract to the end of 2027. takes his name off the list of candidates for the ceo position at boeing. we have watched the shares move higher, up 1% today, taking a step back, up nearly 60% this year. mike. >> all right. yeah, i guess he is worth over

$1 billion at least. thank you. we are just getting started. up next, mapping out the second half. the s&p seeing steady gains so far this year. now rbc capital markets lorie calva seen a will join me with her latest hup advice. just under 5,500. you are watching "closing bell." it's time to feed the dogs real food,

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why is that? >> i think i called myself a nervous jumpy bull. i see the case for upside on the models. i have been expecting it to go over this standard deviation mark and it stuck below. i have to own that. and looking on a six-month forward basis you tend to be up 4.5% from the level it's at. if we get too much more enthusiasm, i thill it will cross over into dangerous territory. i see the case for a pull back. if we end up getting one, it's a 5 to 10% drawdown, similar to april. it doesn't derail the year or sort of the upward path. a pothole is how we see it on the path to recovery. >> the other piece of it, you mentioned sentiment as one of those things nagging at the bull case. valuation, you have been pretty consistent in saying that as much as it seems like 19, 20, 21 times earnings seems expensive,

your work said maybe not. what is it saying now? >> this is something i had a hard time wrapping my head around. i talked about that a lot the last couple of months. the model, the valuation model is pointing to about a went 21.5 trailing pe due to a ramp down in inflation, a little bit of relief on the fed, a little bit of relief on the ten-year. when we marry that with our earnings number and consensus, 52 to 5,300 on the s&p. if you put in a more sort of optimistic view on inflation in the fed, we can get that number to 5,500 for you. that's a little bit over where we are. so i would say i am in sort of a weird pot on this model. it feels like the market is a little overbought. i have been doing this 25 years. it feels like we are more sent meant driven right now. so we think we will have to deal with that at some point. at the same time, i took the models to 2025 and i can come up with a 6,100 scenario on the s&p

looking at consensus arguments for inflation moderating, a few more fed cuts. we can make a case longer term. >> 10, 11% up from here? >> right. so it's nothing heroic. these are not huge percentage gains. they sound like these big crazy -- >> 6,000, yeah, exactly. >> they are not. we have been honest with people. our targets are a compass. they are not a gps. we are going to revise them. breaking news. that's what strategists do as new facts come to light. but it was helpful to really kind of do the math and really study 2025 hard and put everything in context. >> this move higher just recently in treasury yields, it always gets the market's attention, especially when it comes along with somewhat softening economic numbers or the fact that we got a decent inflation report on friday. do you see it as a challenge? is there a level where it would be a challenge? >> it is something that concerns me a bit. i emailed someone this morning and said how high are yields

going to go? i didn't get an answer. the reality is i have done the work. if you look at stretches rising and falling rate environments when the ten-year treasury yield is moving up, over that duration if the stock market is going to go up or down seems to be dependent how much yields move from their original starting point. so something kind of 300 basis points, 275 basis points, market can't handle that. 100 basis points, 200, market seems to be able to weather those storms. >> in the last couple of years, there was a time we thought 3.5 or 4% would be a problem on the ten-year and we got through it. parts of the market, the whole few versus the many trade, where do we emphasize now? >> i feel like i am a little bit stuck in neutral on the rotation trades. growth versus value, i think that there are a lot of reasons to be concerned about growth and rotation, positioning is getting crowded again, valuationst have been bumping up against a 30 time pe. but at the same time we know that for value and cyclicality

and small cap to work, you need economic enthusiasm. we are heading into a period where the forecasts are going to below average levels. we are seeing downward revisions to 2024 numbers. that's not a recipe when people say i don't need secular growth stuff, let's put risk or cyclicality, we have to be more patient. >> the way this market has played defense in part is to buy cyclical growth. you mentioned we can't get through 30 times. you are looking at the nasdaq 100? >> i built my own basket. i got fed up. people kept asking me to run mag 7 baskets. so i took a basket of just rebalancing the top ten market cap names in the s&p 500. we rebalance it every month. we have gone back to the late '80s to look at different -- we ran like 20 studies from valuation to earnings. and if i do that basket on a rebalanced basis in 2021 in

2022, it got close to 30 times a couple of times and couldn't break through. what we have seen recently, the highest stat over the last month or so was 29.8. it's now drifted back to 28 or 27. but that kind of 30 level just can't seem to break through this time around. >> got it. all right. we will keep an eye on that among the other things. thank you. >> thank you. all right. up next, ominous sign for the consumer? flagging a potential. what that is and how it could impact your money after the break. catch us on the go. following "closing bell" on your favorite podcast app. we'll be right back. complexity. healthcare payments are filled with it. wasted time, inadequate resources. confusion about the cost of care and how to afford it. it's time to simplify. waystar's technology is the way to make healthcare payments more human. the way for providers to prioritize care

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♪ ♪ ♪ welcome back. it's been a rough run under the surface for consumer stocks. the number of discretionary groups falling by double digits the past three months. our nextguest is flagging a new warning sign in the charts, jonathan krinsky, chief market technician at btig. thanks for joining. what specifically concerns you within consumer discretionary in

terms of the subsector action? >> good to be here, mike. it's really a lot of things. we can look at the home builders, which are below the 200 day for the first time since novembered today. but really we are flagging the restaurant group. if we look at the russell 3000 restaurant index, that peak inside late february. it's down about 10% since then, breaking below the spring lows, which is one of the few industries that has broken below the april lows. there is definitely something going on here. clearly, doesn't point to great picture for the consumer given restaurants spending is pretty discretionary. now there are some idiosyncratic stories. cava or wing symptom. some of the darlings, chip otle have starting to break lower. it's broad across the group. not a great sign for the

consumer given what's going on there. >> in terms of in the past, if there is a way of describing a pattern that tends to hold, is this somewhat of a bellwether group for the broader market? does it mean move away from other consumer cyclicals? >> i don't think there is a clear-cut pattern for restaurants per se. they kind of topped squins dentally with the markets back at the 2007 highs, for one example. to be clear, the relative weakness has been persistent for a year now. it's not so much the relative weakness. we see that across the market, including industrials, health care, down the list. but it's really the renewed absolute breakdown. we are seeing a lot of 52-week lows in the group. it's high and low. it's cracker barrel on the low end. starbucks persistent weekendness, mcdonald's. it's really widespread. that's kind of the more

concerning stone. and then you combine that with the fact, we mentioned home builders, below the 200 day, they have been weak the last few months. cyclical parts of the markets, industrials. so it's outside of tech, it's hard to find things that are working very well right now. >> yeah. i guess all those things you just ticked off probably are okay from a disinflationary signal stand point, but maybe not in terms of the momentum and the economy. you have thought for a while that this whole split market with the their hoe megacap leadership was more likely that the large stocks and big cap indexes might retreat to meet the average laggard stock in the market. obviously, ball stayed in the air for a while h seems like one or two megacaps a day, manages to support the index. now a decent size break. do you feel like that's what we are in for here? >> it's really tough. at the same time that we continue to expect megacap to

falter, you think by now six months into, seven months into the year you'd get some expansion. it's only gotten, the spread is wider. we have the biggest first half spread between the s&p and the equal weight since 1990. we look at something else interesting today. we will looked at it's been 43 trading days since the last time all of the mag 7 names were down on the same day. we have only had one streak longer since 2015, 44 days in june of 2016. we continue to see this whac-a-mole market where maybe nvidia takes a breather then apple steps up. google pulls back, amazon steps up. so until that mentality of money just sloshing around between those mag 7 names, until that ends, it's difficult to get that broad pull back. and then the trigger for that is always difficult. but we have volatility on year to date lows here. it's been 18 months since the nasdaq 100 had a down 2.5% day.

that's the longest streak area. we are in rarefied air up here. i still think at this point it's more likely that those volbig c names pull back, given six months for the opposite to play out and it hasn't yet. >> no. it's been confounding. it seems almost a little bit improbable it went on this long. i am sure people would come back and say you are describing a bull market. people want to maintain exposure. they don't want to sell everything across the board. they find something to own when one thing goes down and maybe that's healthy if a majority of the market meantime is not extended in and is sort of resting? >> yeah. it's certainly a bull market in megacap, those top names. anything but a bull market if you look at the equal weight s&ps or small caps in particular. we are open to that scenario. wouldn't take much for small caps to break out of the range and get some momentum going.

it just hasn't happened. i think it's frustrated many that we can't get that convergence. >> yeah, it happened in short bursts. nothing too sustained. appreciate the time. thank you. >> thank you. all right. up next, we are tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. >> there is one stock up about 80% this year. it's on the prospect of an a.i. boost. one analyst says its performance is overdone. what that name is and why that analyst is downgrading that stock after this break.

18 minutes to the closing bell. the s&p at 5,500, up a half a percent. back to seema mody for a look at key stocks to watch. >> home building stocks, mike, taking a hit today. d.r. horton and lennar downgraded to hold due to a slowing housing market. weighed down by elevated interest rates. the s&p home builders etf has been down four of the last five weeks. we will see shares down fractionally as well today. a.i. play pure storage on a roll up 80% on growing prospects to for data centers.

ubss saying is the valuation is not justified. downgrading the stock to sell from neutral. it's foun o down about 4% as we head to the close. >> thank you. still ahead, amazon hitting an all-time hightoday. that stock gaining 7% in the past week alone. we will drill down on what is behind that rally coming up. and speaking of records, a quick check on the s&p and the nasdaq. both are trying for record closes. they would get there at current levels. "closing bell" will be right back.

ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.

up next, tesla shares popping for a second day. the company's crucial delivery data driving that move. we will break down the details and how it's impacting the ev atnd m th auch more when we take you inside the market zone.

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a call that has solar moving lower. and amazon hitting all-time highs. scott, we had the s&p 500 here right at 5,500, up a half a percent. of course, the megacap group doing its job as usual to get us there. i know injury posture is we might have further upside year end. you are anticipating a possible summer squall. make the case for that. >> i think it begins with the fact that from a valuation perspective, the s&p has moved toward the top over the past 20 years. we have to acknowledge that is a concern. the concern really is the implication that it puts on fundamentals to deliver. and there are implied growth measures now at levels we haven't seen this high since the tail end of 2021. from that starting point, the market is beginning to price in a growth expectation that may be difficult for companies one by one to meet, particularly given the ongoing strain that we are seeing on underlying economic

conditions and then you combine that with strong flows into the megacap growth tech and core arena and a euphoric sentiment read all suggest to us that we have to be prepared for a pull back at some point as the summer unfolds. >> so would you do anything to prepare for that tactically or to be ready to act upon it if it comes in various parts of the market? >> the way that we're trying to position for this is that we have gone to a market weight on tech and communications services. so we are suggesting fold that megacap growth. we p appreciate generative a.i. where which think you want to go with fresh money is towards those areas of the market that should at the march be positioned to benefit from an infecting fed that have an easier valuation backdrop. for example, we moved overweight

financials this week predicated on banks, which are not so aggressively valued, continue overweight consumer discretionary. even toll come and have gotten a little bit nor constructive on the reit sector. the bias is less valuation pressure, more potential benefit from an eventual all fed pivot. >> jay powell today seemed to offer words consistent with the idea that they are looking for the opportunity to begin some easing before terribly long. i guess the question is, do you think it's going to require further weakness? do you think we are going to get a further growth scare before we get the reality of a potential rate cut? >> my economic colleagues project a cut in september with three cuts for the balance of the year. so essentially, we are arguing that under tsurface economic

continues are decelerating. how far the fed wants to let it go before being preemptive, if you will. the fed is sort of laser focused on getting the inflation trajectory to their target level, but under the surface you are starting to see some signs of friction or fraying around the edges, which we think just is going to be enough here as we go into the q2 reporting period you will hear more corporates expressing a little bit of macro concern going into the back half. >> yeah, perhaps a little bit more of a risk given that earning estimates held up so well so far. scott, appreciate it. thanks very much. now to phil on this move for a second day in tesla on those delivery numbers. >> mike, give tesla credit. coming into today there were more than a few speculating that the numbers would be light of expectations, which were 436,000. that didn't happen. they reported deliveries in the second quarter of almost

444,000. so slightly above expectations. still down 4.8% compared to the second quarter of last year. energy storage. we don't talk about this a lot, but it was way above what people were expecting. this is a part of tesla that is growing. it is increasingly becoming a focus for analysts and that may be one reason why you saw shares pop today. in spite of the news today, they still need to go hard in the second half of this year in order to hit full-year deliveries of 1.82 million. that is the expectation. so they are going to have to grow sales by 6% each quarter in the third and fourth quarter to hit 1.82 million. few analysts today with notes questioning whether or not that will happen. two dates we are focused on now, july 234rd after the bell, that's when we get the q2 results. that's really why a lot of people are focused on, in perfor terms of pricing. then on august 8, the event people are focused on in terms

of, what is the roadmap over the next couple of years when it comes to autonomous drive technology and elon's vision for robotaxis. >> if anything, this two-day move in tesla up 16.5% really has activated i think that excitement around the event august 8. people starting to feel like it's a little more than just the quarterly car sales numbers. we will see how we do in the lead up to that. thank you. on this move in first solar, what's behind that? >> under pressure after the price target cut. although, important to note that is still about 40% above where the stock currently trades. they have an outperformed rating. first socialer is positioned between several themes, including the rise in a.i. and data centers, power manned growth and geopolitical tensions with china. risks is really hitting the name, after a big run in the

spring. shares gained 50% back in may before hitting the highest level since 2008 in mid-june. but then since then the shares have tumbled nearly 30%. first solar is the largest weighting in the tan fund, so it is dragging shares lower. also under pressure. mike. >> yeah, i mean, these stocks always whip around on policy rates, any number of factors. thanks for chasing them around for us. kate, amazon, a lot of follow-through to the upside after that $2 trillion market cap level. >> on track for mother record close. we are close now. just below 200 bucks a share. 30% run for amazon this year, part of it is this a.i. halo effect around big tech. strong earnings growth as well. mizuho to $240. amazon nearing an inflection point on generative a.i., looking for 20% aws growth for

earnings coming up. this one of the most loved stocks on the street. 95% of analysts out there got a buy rating on amazon. plus there has been a renewed focus on some of the parts story for amazon heading into earnings season and improving margins within e-commerce. prime day is coming up in a couple of weeks in july. bank of america pointing out that amazon stock tends to outperform into the big sales events in the ten days or so leading up to the event. pure play tree tail stocks tend to lag leading into the events. >> and it's interesting. you mentioned some of the parts story. i have seen people refer to costco was one of the strongest stocks out there in consumer land. it trades at a higher forward valuation than all of amazon does and it's a similar deal, right. kind of membership is prime and selling everything you need. >> yeah, a great point. analysts describe it as a hedge.

you get the big tech a.i. sort of and also exposure to consumer discretionary. you get that consumer exposure that you don't get with any of the other mag 7 or megacap tech companies and it's got -- if you look at the parts, it's really still printing money. earnings growth has been really strong on all sides of the business. aws is the growth engine that we talk about. e-commerce margins have really started to improve. that investment cycle at amazon, it's showing up in the numbers. wall street sort of focused on that a little bit more lately. the last couple weeks coming back into vogue. >> seems to benefit from rt fact that the stock is sideways for three years or so before this run. thank you very much. well, as we head into the close, the s&p 500 is going to go out at a new closing high. it's closing bell. so near a tie for the day, up 0.6 of 1%, above the 5,500 mark. and nasdaq in positive, will

also be at a record high. this is one of those days it's not just a tiny handful of stocks. twice as many stocks up as down on the new york stock exchange. the volatility index goes down to below 12 as we sit here 24 hours before a holiday. that's it for "closing bell." "overtime" is coming up. the s&p 500 and the nasdaq to record closes. amazon, microsoft and apple all touching record levels as well. that is the score card on wall street. >> coming up this hour, tesla extending the rally in a big way after second quarter deliveries better than expected. we will talk to the manager about the come back for that stock. and how he is positioning more broadly with the nasdaq at