emergency fund? if so, this market, this economy feels entirely different to you than if you don't. and if you are older, you tend to have those things. >> that's right. it's the bifurcation we talked about. we closed above 5,500 for the s&p. look 14 days to get from 5,400 to 5,500. that's going to do it for us here at "overtime." >> “fast money” starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. health care headache. the s&p and nasdaq at records, but shares of lilly and novo taking a hit. the drug makers, the latest targets for president biden -- drug prices are going to become the next big hot button issue. plus, tesla revs up. the ev maker's stock charging towards its highs of the year. one top analyst will weigh in. and later, a seller's market? home building stocks on shaky ground today. after a big down grade over at

city. c i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, karen finerman, dan nathan, and bonawyn eison. president biden, vermont senator bernie sanders out with a new attack on the high sticker price of glp-1 weight loss drugs, saying novo and lilly need to stop, quote, ripping off the american people. the pair calling the price of treatment unkons bly high compared to what patients in other countries pay. with u.s. list prices well above $1,000 for a month's supply of the injectables. if obesity drugs captured even half their market, they say, patients would pay more than what americans spent on all prescriptions in 2022. biden and sanders calling to extend medicare price negotiations to 50 drugs, up from the ten currently on the list. and also today, by the way, lilly's alzheimer's drug getting fda approval, expected to cost

$32,000 for 12 months of treatment. so, with all this news, less than six months before the presidential election, should investors be bracing for more pressure on pharma? and that, of course, is what investors tend to think, that as we go into an election cycle, all the pharmaceutical companies have targets on their back because of high drug pricing. >> i think it's an easy target for either candidate, right? and so, i mean, we like to spend a lot of time on the glp-1s because they're so transformative, but there was a lot in the article that i felt were sort of cheap shots that don't take into account how much it costs to actually create a drug like this, and how much they lose with shots on goal that never end up becoming something, right? it doesn't address that at all. and i think it's sort of a cheap shot to say the ingredients cost $5, which doesn't address so many other things. but i mean, who is to argue for, yay, higher drug prices? nobody. so, we'll continue to see this

industry is a bit of a punching back. i have exposure there, i'm just going to wait it out. >> and we had the person, the researcher who came up with that $5 figure and said, it doesn't cover the cost to develop the drug, to cost to get the drug to market, which may be the cost of the trials. the cost to get it through the regulatory process. the list goes on and on of all the things that are not included in that $5 figure that must be spent in order to get the drug from the laboratory to a patient. >> it's an op-ed, means you can submit it, means -- we know why he's submitting it, we know why this is going on. it hasn't been a great week for biden. it's a dynamic where i think also, just to add to what we're talking about, structurally, it doesn't layer in the fact that international markets are just very different than our markets, all right? and there's a very different structural component to how things are priced. and how we participate in that, there's a dynamic here where i think the middlemen, so to speak, in how drugs are sold often have a lot to do with some of these dynamics, so, it's not

terribly shocking. it's almost, what took it so long? every presidential election for the last, you know, probably four that i've sat here in this chair, we've had this kind of rhetoric. this could be hillary clinton, too, running for office. i remember that and i remember what it did for the drugs on those days, so -- lilly, which has had such a remarkable move, if you're telling me 83 basis points selloff on this headline at least for now is something to be worried about -- there could be more to follow. maybe this is the first shot, but boy, this stock trades great if you think this is something that knocked it down. >> senator sanders is going to have a hearing. they have subpoenaed for the ceos to appear in september. so, there will be more. ozempic is probably the perfect drug to pick on because it is a drug that everybody wants, it's a drug that is very expensive on the sticker price. it is a drug, as you mentioned, that is very transformative. and so to say, that $5 number, it's just -- it sort of gets your goose, it gets your blood boiling, and i guess that's the

purpose of this. >> that's the goal. >> right. >> but when he says, if you do not end your greed, we will end it for you, do you believe it? because -- what will they do to actually do that? >> that implies that there's no legislative process around actually being able to bite behind the bark, right? and getting this through congress would present several challenges. and you see it, we're going to push this through without a single republican vote. that likely won't be the case going forward. but let me not put the cart before the horse. if you want to think about just the end consumer, the issue that these drugs have had has been demand outstripping supply. so, if you are arguing that you're putting this in place for the people, are you, in fact, going to likely drive down supply artificially when you are trying to help these very c const constituents? i just thought, again, to some of the other points, i'm not sure if it incorporated all t the -- all of the dynamics that go into manufacture, we mentioned r&d, we mentioned marketing spin.

all of the failed attempts. but that aside, just in terms of, like, kind of garnering and getting emotional support around this, are you hurting the very constituents that you're arguing that you're helping with this process? >> yeah, this panel has a slightly different view on that. i mean, you can tell me that the dynamics are very different outside the u.s., but if you have insurance coverage, you're paying $25 a month, and so, you know, you just -- one of the panelists just mentioned that, you know, like, who is negotiating these prices? where is all the juice coming from? you know what i mean? it's a little outrageous. now, to your point, when there's more competition, you know, and there's more supply, it's going to drive down cost, there's no doubt about it. but to tim's point, i mean, biden's going to have to do a heck of a lot more of this stuff after last thursday to get people kind of excited. this is kind of easy pickings. >> just one more point. i think that the government, because they are the largest buyer of several drugs, many drugs, should -- should be able to ne goesh yat prices on those, as they have started to do. i fully support that.

>> for more, let's bring in nbc news medical contributor dr. kavita patel. great to have you with us. first of all, i guess, here's the basic question. why is it that there is such a discrepancy between what we pay here in the united states and what others pay abroad? >> yeah, simply put, we have too many people in between me, who prescribes the drug, and anybody who is actually picking it up at the counter. that comes in the forms of pharmacy benefiting managers, group purchasing organizations. you have very large, people call it the middlemen, you have seen some very prominent "new york times" articles exposing this. but there are a lot of people in between the drug manufacture, the prescriber, and the patient, and that's not lost, i think it shouldn't be lost on anyone. that's why you see such vast discrepancies. i can walk up and pay zero dollars copay. i don't understand all this talk about the cost of ozempic or mounjaro, and if you have an employer that's cut that out as a benefit, you can just simply take your insurance car and just get maybe some of the

disopportunity cos, some of the rebates. there's patient assistance programs. the list of programs that we have, the system that we have, as flawed as it is, is kind of there because people benefit from it. they profit from it. and i this i that most of us don't see it. and so, if anything, we should be having is a more honest conversation about transparency, to put it all on the manufacturer is really misleading. >> and they did mention, to be fair, the opaque nature of pricing, but it's not a sexy thing to go after the middlemen, i mean, it's not -- it's not a good headline for "usa today." in terms of getting to the numbers here, they make the assumption, if half of all medicare and medicaid beneficiaries who are obese took wegovy or one of the drugs, they would spend $166 billion a year to cover it. but the fact of the matter is is that you don't get coverage for obesity medicines per se, you get coverage for those medicines t if they are prescribed for other

ailments, so, for instance, if it's approved to prevent cardiac events, then you get coverage for that, you're not getting coverage for weight loss, per se. so, the numbers -- it sounds like should be a little different. >> yeah, i agree. they should be different. i'm also watching carefully what's going on in the house of representatives where you had pretty broad support for bills that actually supported covering these drugs in medicare for weight loss, but if and only if you had already been on them by the time that you aged into medicare. so, you know, where is that going to go? it's very interesting. there's broad bipartisan support for that. so, you are seeing a shift, i think, overall, into supporting this for weight loss. and then melissa, nobody's really done a companion study of, what are we going to do to benefit from not having heart attacks, not having costly hospital stays. i'm still a big believer that these drugs are, as karen put it, transformative, simply from a medical standpoint. you cannot deny the onslaught of clinical evidence that you and i and the panel have discussed over the last months on almost every single major chronic

disease. and i think that's really what the government has to contend with. >> dr. p, we talked about a lot of good stuff, and something that i think we haven't talked about in awhile is the medicare negotiation. can you quickly remind you where you think we are and where the companies are and the push-back, merck came in and was very aggressive out of the gates, but this talk of 10 goes to 50, and just the timeline for when some of this could come into play and some of the most important drugs affected? >> yeah, this quarter in the third quarter, in september, we should -- we will see a lot of activity around what those costs, what that kind of result of the negotiation should look like. cms has put out their calendar and timeline and the manufacturers and all the courts had a dispute. i think you now have seen that you're going to have medicare negotiate drugs and i would say that the list of the ten drugs, with the exception of the insulin one, is a pretty good one. so, we will have not only some transparency around the process, the net result, in october of this year, and we'll see some of

those prices come to fruition next year. and in addition to that, in addition of those list of drugs for the following year, 2026. so, i think you're going to have a series of what i'm trying to understand, though, is the president and bernie sanders, senator sanders decided they would want to expand this, not a new idea, but i'll add into that wrinkle that some of us are debating inside the policy wonk circuit, what does chevron and the supreme court ruling do to expanding some of that regulatory piece. so, from a drug negotiation standpoint, i don't think you're going to see that much of a huge delta between the manufacturers' list price and what they're offering right now for patients in medicare and what we see medicare negotiate, but i do think you're going to see this very slow kind of creep with all these additional drugs that people want to add as the president outlined in his op-ed today, and if that were to come to fruition, just fast forward

time, this is going to be a law of diminishing return. every drug eventually will be subject to negotiation. i asked the question of medicare and haven't gotten a direct answer because it's done behind the scenes right now, what would that matter to the out of pocket cost? the conversation we're having right now, in the op-ed, is around out of pocket costs that are hurting people in their pocketbook. i will be interesting to see, what does that true delta from out of pocket costs for medicare seniors. >> dr. patel, it's karen, thank you for being on. what did you think -- it wasn't surprising, but the alzheimer's news today, the pricing of that drug, and how effective is that drug really? >> karen, we were talking again, like my little circle of nerdy friends, we were saying how interesting, the day the op-ed comes out with have the fda approval for this alzheimer's drug, and we see that there is a pricing they set, variable pricing, karen, because the

course of treatment can vary, depending, remember, this is a drug for alzheimer's that they can use early on, but you can stop the treatment when you see a clearing of the plaque on imaging. so, it could be on average about $32,000 a year, and we know that that's priced just slightly above what the other drug is. so, we have a little bit of a setup, as we discussed earlier, it's going to be priced in the same range, but medicare, given the onslaught of people that are expected to be diagnosed with alzheimer's, early alzheimer's, this is a huge cost to the medicare program. i was not surprised by the cost. and i will be honest with you, i still think this just proves that there's something about the plaque and the relationship to alzheimer's, because we have several trials that are reinforced that. in terms of how many people will really benefit from this drug, to your point, it's going to have to be done early, it is intensive imaging. this isn't a small process. but i think the drug has a clear advantage, because there's an actual end point to the duration of treatment, and that's what

tended to scare off some of the other kind of treatment modalities. seemed like it would be in perpetuity, forever, without really an end in sight. so, this might be the most optimistic. the irony is not lost on me that on one hand, lilly's drug is being discussed in obesity, on the other hand, we're finding a pathway in alzheimer's. >> all right, i agree with you, that doesn't roll off the tongue. dr. patel, thank you so much. always good to see you. >> thank you. >> you know, both of the stocks, novo, as well as lilly, bounced off the lows of the session during the session and lilly actually got the bigger boost higher on the back of this approval. >> we were talking about before the show, i don't know if you saw it, an ad that lilly put out in the hard copy of "the wall street journal," it was an odd ad that said, we treat diabetes -- >> weight loss medications. >> weight loss medications.

diabetes and obesity. and i think maybe they knew this op-ed was coming -- i don't know. it was an odd ad, i wasn't sure what they were trying to do. but maybe they were trying to combat what they knew was coming from biden. >> the alzheimer's news is once again a case where lilly -- it's lilly and biogen that seem to be leading here. and the question is, what's the size of this market? there's different estimates. and the estimates will probably grow, when you think about the addressable market. alzheimer's is kind of its own, i guess focused treatment, but there may be other reasons that we think that it could be contributing, that could be contributing to alzheimer's. 5 billion addressable market, is that enough for what we think maybe -- i don't know what people think has been priced into lilly at this point, but there's no question, alzheimer's has been a big part of the lilly move. the presidential election about four months away, will drug prices be the new battleground for the candidates? let's bring in chris meekens,

health care policy analyst. great to have you with us. was this the op-ed today, was that just political rhetoric, or do you think there is something to be concerned about if you are a health care investors? >> look, i think that if democrats sweep, they told you what they're going to do, which is, they're going to expand the number of drugs subject to negotiation. so, if you wake up the day after the election and democrats control the house, senate, and the white house, you probably are not going to have a good day. otherwise, i think what we've seen is a status quo, and all the things they said they were going to do really require congress to act. and i think congress is unlikely to do that what they're trying to do is pressure these companies to lower prices before the election so they can claim a win. senator sanders, chairman of the senate health committee, has a hearing with the ceo of novo in september, he threatened a subpoena and the ceo agreed to show up, so, what they want to do is right before that hearing in september, when a lot of the swing voters are paying attention, they want to be able

to announce, look how much we lowered this drug price, and hold the pharmaceutical industry accountable. >> do you think that happens? and what really stood out to me in the notes, if novo and/or lilly do that, then you're basically giving a win to the democrats, and if they don't, you are helping trump -- how do you see this shaking out politically, and what do you think the calculus is at these companies in terms of giving biden a win at this point? >> yeah, i'm glad i don't run government affairs for novo or lilly right now. that's for sure. it's -- you are hit if you do, hit if you don't. i will say, as the -- i believe, based on my conversations, the trump administration and trump team is watching, and if trump happens to pull this thing out, as most of the polls show he's leading right now, you really don't want to be a company that's giving a win to the other side. there will be problems if you do

that. so, i think the company has a tough road. i think they will try to lower prices a little bit. but you don't want to set the precedent where every time you are called before congress, you have to cut your prices. if you believe they're legitimate prices. and so -- next thing you know, pharmaceutical company executives will be in every week, if that becomes the new norm, so sh the i think it's a tough situation, i think they probably give a little, but they're not going to give a lot. >> chris, thank you for joining us. so, as we're looking at the investment landscape going into the election cycle, and you really focus on investing the incremental dollar, if you are balancing your portfolio and allocating towards pos health c where do you invest going into this landscape? >> look, the problem with this election is, it's really a binary outcome. if you want to hide, hide in med tech and talk about companies that are well positioned right now, and maybe undervalued at

this point. but when you look at managed care, you can't just say, well, managed care almost always outperforms a year after the election, so, i'll invest there, because it really comes down to what each company's enrolled lives look like. if trump wins, it's good for medicare advantage, so, humana, united, cvs to some degree, align alignment. if biden wins, you probably don't want to be there. if trump wins, you probably don't want to invest in medicaid. nor do you want to be in the affordable care act exchanges. because you have the huge expanded subsidies that expire at the end of 2025, unless congress acts. so, that makes them a little more questionable. if democrats win and biden wins, the opposite's true. those companies are fine. when you look at providers, it's a similar situation. you know, usually they end up navigating okay, but with the aca expanded subsidies potentially going away, that makes an hca a little more nerve

racking. so, you are really going to have to make an election call, if you want to invest in individual companies within health care. that's the bottom line going into the election. and you've already seen the last four days after biden's debate performance pretty notable shifts in certain names based on what people think is likely to happen. >> chris, great to speak with you. thank you. >> thank you. >> chris meekins. so, what do you do? you know, novo and lilly were seen as the untouchables, quote unquote, i want to put that in quotes, clearly, in the health care space. these were the ones you want to be in. these are the equivalent of the a.i. stocks. >> yeah, listen, lilly's trading 66 times earnings and novo is trading 47 times. and, you know, one of you guys mentioned this, i mean, you know, at the end of the day, you know, what is the tam? we've seen it kind of move up pretty aggressively over the last six or seven months, and again, i you tthink it's probab pulling forward the excitement of these things and not taking

into consideration what competition might look like in the not so distance future. and the other point, the xlv and the ibb, they are kind of sitting out this rally right here. they are unchanged. they haven't confirmed the new highs in the s&p 500. i probably don't think it gets much better between now and november 5th. coming up, weakness all over the retail space. why our traders are flagging the drops in nike, chipotle, dick's, starbucks, and more. plus, fed chair jerome powell weighing in on rate cut timelines. what he had to say about the fight against inflation and why he is in need of a little more confidence. don't go anywhere. "fast money" is ba itwckn o., t e for the at&t internet, it's super-fast so, any pre-launch concerns? what if nobody buys them? that's mean or, what if everybody buys them? oh, i hadn't thought of that that's probably not gonna happen can we handle that kind of traffic? the network can handle it! i downloaded eight hours of true crime stories

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welcome back to "fast money." some major retail names slipping today. nike, deckers, and dick's all closing in the red. restaurant stocks chipotle and star bucs also down. but the discretionary sector managed a nice gain on the day, led by tesla's 10% move higher. more on that later in the show. but amazon helping the group, hitting another all-time high, topping the $200 mark for the first time. >> so, what to make of this divergence, the continued weakness? >> first thing's first, you better know when you buy the xly, amazon and tesla are 35% of

it, and they're not -- that's not discretionary to me. discretionary is everything from deckers to nike to lulu to restaurant stocks, cmg, mcdonald's. so, you have to understand if you remove amazon and tesla, you are down 5%. if you look at what's going on in apparel, these names have fallen out of bed. if you look at aspirational things, beauty, estee lauder, even some of the better ones, these things are going lower every day. look at the spirits space. this is a two-year chart that is death defying to the downside. so, if you look at best buy, dick's, i mean, these numbers are gotten soft. if you think about where we were coming out of the last quarter, these things, where everybody was saying they could do no wrong. >> tim, i know you like dick's here, but it's had two gaps over the last two quarters to new all-time highs, based on better than expected quarter, and guidance. but look at how it's coming 15% from its all-time high.

in just about a week. so, i wonder -- >> i don't like dick's here, by the way. >> you just mentioned, you know, a whole host of names, and again, you are differentiate differentiating -- we've been talking about mcdonald's, even a domino's, maybe they can pull that one up. that was lower left upper right. and just kind of sold off. i wonder if investors are softening across the board on a whole lost of consumer names, whether discretionary or not. >> i said i don't like dick's here, you seem obsessed with dick's. my point was simply if the labor market is actually as strong as it is, the fed said it's rebalancing a bit, and the dynamic is, we haven't seen the consumer fall out of bed, but look at the stocks that are trading at multiples that i don't -- >> they tell a different story. >> it's a different story. there's so much more to go here, and a lot of these stocks are just coming off all-time highs. >> first of all, you boys are so

silly. but second of all -- >> thank you for someone mentioning that. >> i come back to this again and again, if you are a retailer and you are doing it right, you are doing okay or better than okay. >> for now. >> for now, right, but you know -- >> who is an example of that? >> elf. really doing well. ulta is actually having a nice run off of a tough quarter, two quarters ago. we'll see how gap and a abercrombie have done, i mean, that's just before -- been monumental story, better than nvidia last year. but there are, you know, merchants who are getting it done. there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. confidence is key. and the federal reserve seems to need a whole lot more of it before cutting rates. what fed chair jerome powell had to say on the fight against inflation. plus, tesla on a tear. the ev maker's stock on a big win streak, and this morning's delivery numbers are charging shares even higher. but can the wheels stay in motion?

or will price cuts and china pressure force investors to unplug? you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

[ speaking minionese ] junior. [ laughter ] good job junior. way to go. [ speaking minionese ]

welcome back to "fast money." the s&p and nasdaq closing at fresh record highs. the dow gaining more than 160 points, its fourth positive session in five. crude oil touching its highest level since late april before losing steam. the commodity settling half a percent lower, but up 16% this year. and fed chair jerome powell weighing in on the central bank's inflation fight today. sara eisen moderating a discussion with powell and other global central bank leaders. here's what powell had to say. >> we want to be more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2% before we start the process of -- of reducing how tight our policy is, of loosening policy. >> you guys thought it was hawkish, right? >> definitely. >> yeah, agree. >> basically, we'll err on the side of doing nothing, because the labor market is strong, it can't be that bad out there.

plus, it's rebalancing, which is what he said. >> listen, i hear that. i think he's once again reacknowledging the fact that the next move is likely lower. and i -- i think the market reacted positively to that. i think the doves got enough, yes,hawkish, with you, but enough for the doves to still buy in and feel like they were satisfied with the remarks. coming up, big move for tesla. less bad than expected deliveries sending shares soaring. could the stock be nearing a key resistance level? we're surrounding the trade next. plus, shares of paramount getting a boost after piquing potential interest. more "fast money" in two. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.

welcome back to "fast money." tesla shares jumping 10% today, closing at their highest level since january 10th. the move coming after the ev maker reported a smaller decline in q-2 deliveries than expected. phil lebeau has all the details. hey, phil. >> melissa, coming into today, there were a few people that thought it was possible for tesla to deliver maybe only

410,000 vehicles today. far short of the estimate of 436. well, look what they did report. almost 444,000 vehicles. now, admittedly, it's still a year over year decline. two straight quarters that we've seen that, down 4.8% compared to the second quarter of last year, but again, better than expected. and that put the stock moving higher, production there you see it at 410,000 as they are clearing out a lot of inventory. brings up the question, can they hit the consensus estimate of 1.82 million vehicles? adam jonas said, if they're going to get there, they have to grow by 6% in the third quarter and fourth quarter, they have to sell a million vehicles between now and the end of the year. china continues to be an area where everybody is looking at it, saying, what's happening with pricing and what's happening with demand? because the government released ev sales data, and in june, tesla's china sales dropped 24.2% compared to last year.

nonetheless, the tesla bulls were out today, cheering the report of a quarterly sales coming in better than expected. we talked to dan ives, not surprising that he had this to say. the worst is in the rear view mirror for tesla, as we believe the ev demand story is starting to return to the disruptive tech stalwart. that tech stalwart has two important dates coming up, melissa. july 23rd, that's when we will get the q-2 results after the bell. and then august 8th, that is the robo-taxi unveil, or, at least when we find out what elon musk really is thinking about when it comes to the robo-taxi, if there's a lot of detail, i bet you the stock continues to move higher. if it's one of those where we can do this, and it's going to take some time and sort of a broad vision, you may see the stock plateau a bit. melissa, i'll send it back to you. >> there's already stuff leaking about the robo-taxi event, something like tesla has already patented a self-cleaning aspect,

i mean, it's crazy what is being drummed up ahead of -- >> yeah. oh, we'll hear more about that. >> yeah. >> we will hear a lot more prior to that event. >> phil, thank you. as always. phil lebeau. >> you bet. >> wells fargo thinks the tesla bear case is in tact. colin langen is twith us, with n underweight target on tesla stock. nothing has improved in your view? based on this -- >> i mean, based on today? deliveries are still down year over year. so, yeah, we had a much lower number for the quarter, so, it's a better quarter. how did they get there? giant financial incentive. you can get 1% financing. that's about 100 bucks in your payment per month. very generous deal, probably over $5,000 in incentives. this is no,techie at all. this is a traditional auto story. cut the price, drive volume. this is our concern. this is reason why we originally downgraded, because we're seeing the price cuts are not driving

volume. now we have both negative pricing and negative volume. how are we going to grow deliveries into the second half? numbers still have to come down. and q-26, t, that's going to be problem. >> i thought it was interesting, when you look at the countries that had subsidies for evs versus the countries that pulled them back, there was the difference in deliveries. so, in the countries where there were evs, turkey, italy, it was up. and then in the countries that pulled back like france and germany, some of the more core markets, deliveries were down. so, it's like a typical story. you get the incentive there, them buying a down a rate or ev incentive because the government's giving it to you and you got the sales, right? >> it's absolutely concerning. you see markets like germany and france down large double digits. volumes start to collapse, really. >> so, one of the bullish points that people make is fsd, you

know, when do you think that will happen? do you think it will be gigantic top line and the margins on it would be tretremendous? when or will do you think that will happen? >> well, full self-driving, i mean, there's a little bit of help in the quarter of the full self-driving prototype, you know, demo and some people might adopt it. i think it's going to be pretty small. i think if you're talking true full self-driving robo-taxi, we're going to get the reveal on 8/8, i take the contrary point here, you know, you get the hype into the reveal, you talked about the hype, all that's going to come, and typically it falls after that. when i talk to experts, people are very skeptical of the vision only approach. how do you deal with fog and glare, you know? i think if you look at a lot of things go back to aymo and cruise, they were supposed to deliver full self-driving five years ago. you get so hyped about the technology, you don't realize getting to that last 1% is a lot harder. i think that's partly what's

going to happen to tesla. all the hype and excitement about robo-taxi is probably going to prove to be a lot harder to get to. once you get this, you know, 8/8 reveal, what's the next catalyst? we already got a lot of hype into it, so, typically, it fades. >> full self-driving is called supervised -- isn't that what the regulators are saying it needs to be called? it's low single digits of tesla owners who have actually taken up full self-driving. so, it's interesting. they're going to have to have some real advances for large numbers to do that. my question to you, after my little thing -- >> monologue. >> yeah. >> soliloquy. >> a lot of your competitors, it's interesting, they say it's not a car company. well, the move that it just had over the last couple days is, you know, because it's a car company, right? how do you think about that a little bit? because people are talking about optimist and talking about fsd, all these advances and

robo-taxi, that seems to be a big part of the bull case. >> well, i wouldn't really say the move in the last couple of days is because -- it is deliveries, but you know, if gm beat a little bit, would they be up? i mean, if volumes were down, it's because -- >> $700 billion market cap company and very little of it has to do -- at least a lot of your competitors are suggesting about the sales of these cars right now, it has to do with all this other stuff. >> well, i mean, it's obviously true. it trades at 90 times earnings. my problem is you're betting so much, you know, on the value of robo-taxi and it probably has pretty low probability of being a true success. and the core business, by the way, is deteriorating, and by the way, the chinese competition are coming in and doing really good cars. i was in detroit at a teardown facility a couple weeks ago, it's amazing what the technology that china is bringing in. the leaders -- tesla is really not necessarily the leader anymore. it might be the ev makers there,

like byd. >> colin, thank you for being with us. >> thank you. >> all right, so, you know -- to your point in terms of the bull case, adam jonas, which phil mentioned, 20% of his price target is it being a car company. the rest of it of the $310 is it being full self-driving, robo-taxi, all this pie in the sky stuff. >> not surprising to hear. the analyst community that has that view areal faing. and i think a lot of the fluff is out of the story. and what we're forgetting here about this is, why are deliveries going lower? it's one thing to say they came in better and this and that, but why are they going lower? just because tesla's rallied 60%, and, you know, i'm not sure this was also the analyst comment that they'll reference, but the ev disruption story is back on. i mean -- you know, it -- look, there's an argument there are early adopters, this is a long-term secular trend. there's no question it's happening. the question is, i think, more just a reality check on that. so, you have to get back to why

tesla's numbers are where they are, that they were expected to be so low that it was a low bar they cleared. >> yeah, i think this all kind of brings us back to the consumer complex, as well. and we're going to debate the merits of home builders and other parts of that complex, and we talked about decision c d discretionary. you're not -- >> rates coming down. rates come down, and all of a sudden you've got a natural incentive that tesla does not have to pay for. >> okay, i understand that, but i'm saying, you can make that same argument for homes and the supply/dynamic is not the same. coming up, paramount pops. the struggling streamer getting a boost on potential interest from billionaire barry diller. and a possible sale of the b.e.t. unit. plus, a big call from citi sending lennar and dr horton lower. why the chart master is sounding

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amelia, weather. 70 degrees and sunny today. amelia, unlock the door. i'm afraid i can't do that, jen. ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ why not? did you forget something? ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ my protein shake. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. you're so dramatic amelia. bye jen. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com. welcome back to "fast money." shares of paramount taking another leg higher late in the day, after report the company is in talks to sell its b.e.t. network for $1.6 billion and to off load some of its noncbs

affiliate stations. that comes after a separate report that barry diller has expressed interest in taking control of the company. paramount up nearly 6% today, but just back to where it was in the middle of june. i feel like we've been through this before. somebody's interested, it goes up, they're not really interested, something happens. and then we're back down again. >> yeah, you better check in with the amusement park familiened a just see -- the redstone family, ultimately. we've seen this trade before. it's been more destruction each time. i mean, look. fool me once, it's one of those. i don't think you're chasing it here, even though the sum of the parts says this probably trades significantly higher. >> agreed. what's there to chase? this is kind of a replay, and the thing so now, it's very clear they're up for seam. and so, any premium you would l obscurity, that's been stripped out. and the lack of coherent -- i shouldn't say coherent, but cohesive leadership poses an additional problem.

it's going to boil down to how they pursue the acquisition. are they going to look to buy paramount direct lip, or are they going to look for a way to just get a controlling stake? and i think the economics around that are ultimately going to decide the pathway forward. coming up, citi and the chart master sounding the alarm on the home builder trade. the warning signs in the data chca, ghafr lsrit te this. what is cirkul? cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. cirkul is the energy that gets you to the next level. cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul.com. (♪♪) (♪♪)

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that's a lot of bread. you got this. the comcast business five-year price lock guarantee. switch today for a limited time. welcome back to "fast money." shares of dr horton and lennar dropping over a percent today after citigroup downgraded the home builders. analysts saying they see a slowdown with softness in permit s. the chart master also sounded the alarm on the ground, all the way back in march and he's sticking with that call today. carter worth of worth charting has more. carter, what do you see in the charts? >> yeah, before we get to the charts, what's so incredible is how important this area is to the economy, the number of jobs, and how small it is. there's a total of 21 publicly traded home builders, only four in the s&p, and they add up to 20 basis points. one-fifth of one percent. so, in many ways, doesn't matter. if you are long or short, it

matters a lot. let's look at the charts. so, the first table, in fact, it depicts really what's happened since march 18th, and again, today's report was just a reiteration of the march report to key selling, so, selling -- you want to press this, even though happily it's worked out so far. let's look at the three charts, and try to draw some lines together. and so, the itb is the etf to use. it is blended, of course, it has things like sherwin-williams and lowe's and home depot and mohawk and so forth. but what we see, it's been in a beautiful channel, and we hit the top of the cha and we broke down. we're down 16% with today's weakness. let's look at the second of three charts. agn, they're all eidentical. can you can depict the circumstance this way. we get to the bottom at a min minimum. so, final chart, the question is, were we to sell off to the

lower band, as we did about six months ago, 21% decline, it does imply further downside from here. and so, just want to reiterate, stick with the view that home builders are not an area to be long by our work. >> all right, carter, thank you very much. carter braxton worth of worth charting. part of what citi said, these particular homebuilders have outsized exposure to florida and texas, which had been engines of the housing market, but are sort of rolling over at this point. >> yeah, it's interesting that you have this weakness, expectations are for a rate cut in september, i think it's building to about 63%, if you look at the cme fed watch tool. and then near, like, certainty, i guess, in november. so, if you have unemployment starting to pick up a little bit, this is probably not a place you want to be, especially even if rates are coming down, let's call it 50 basis points in the next six months. >> yeah, listen, i like kbh in the space. i mentioned dhi in terms of

barbell, as well. and i just have to admit the momentum around the trade has broken down. i just don't necessarily have the same panic within the space. i think it's just more fairly priced, particularly kbh, which is around 1.3 times of book. particularly with rates like little imminently being cut, in terms of that being the next move, and again, if there's an area in the consumer complex around durables that i'm concerned about, i would much rather be short autos than be short here. >> it's fascinating to look at the xhb and note that before the fed sniffed out any inflation and told us we're fine, many it to late 2021, before they went on this very aggressive cycle, the xhb was an $85 etf. now it's 10 something, 104, 105. 20% or so higher. it's been making new highs on the expectation of lower rates were ultimately good for the sector. none of it has priced in a consumer that is less employed or consumer that has less

powder. and those are things that are slowly happening, so sh the -- so i've been negative for awhile. up next, final trades. sy-to, power e*trade makes complex trading easier. react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity. e*trade from morgan stanley

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time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. tim? >> yeah, in my consumer discretionary rant, let's throw in dutch bros, or bros, is the ticker, at least 250 times trailing. don't make no sense. >> karen? >> yes. discretionary, but really more of a deal stock. capri. i think the risk-reward is interesting right here. >> dan? >> yeah, jpmorgan kicks off earnings season next friday.

up 10% in the last couple weeks. i think it sets up very poorly. >> bonawyn? >> sticking with the discretionary trend, this may not necessarily fit the bill, it's there, amazon. >> all right, holiday-shortened day tomorrow. thank you for watching "fast." "mad money" >> my mission is simple, to make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always -- and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey, i am cramer. welcome to mad money. welcome to cramerica. call me at -- or tweet me