Skip to main content

tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  July 5, 2024 5:00am-6:00am EDT

5:00 am
you are looking at a live shot of 10 downing streets with the changing of the guard as the labour party wins the election in the landslide unseating the conservative rishi sunak who is expected to address the uk this hour and offer his resignation to king charles. the pound sterling is higher. stock markets around the world are mixed. futures here in the u.s. also a bit mixed. we have a busy day of the
5:01 am
markets. it's july 5th, 2024. are you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. good friday morningm. welcome to "worldwide exchange." we will have the latest on the uk elections in a moment. let's check on the u.s. stocks futures with the markets set to reopen after the fourth of july holiday. futures global markets are mixed. the u.s. futures as well and somewhat mixed. s&p is flat, but fractionally lower. the dow is close to the flat line. similar story for the nasdaq. investors today are looking ahead to the big monthly jobs report out at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. expectations are for 200,000 jobs in june from the 272,000 jobs in may. we will dig into that later in
5:02 am
the hour. a quick check of the bond market. the benchmark 10-year bond is 4.34%. it has fallen from the levels we saw on wednesday. it was a shortened trading day on wednesday. we see a decline in yields with the benchmark. also this morning, i want to look at energy and oil as we look at hurricane beryl as it heads toward mexico. look at oil right now. seeing a bit of a mixed move in the oil market. wti crude is up fractionally. brent crude is down fractionally. brent crude and wti at the highest levels. we continue to watch the moves when it comes to the oil market. that is the money set up. now to the breaking news and historic outcome in the uk elections. the labour party winning a landslide victory. prime minister rishi sunak
5:03 am
conceding defeat this morning and apologizing to his party for the scale of the loss. just to put that in perspective, the conservative's party worst result in 109 years. labour leader keir starmer is replacing sunak after less than two years. he will be the sixth prime minister in roughly eight years in the uk. speaking this morning, starmer celebrating the road forward. >> now, we can look forward again and walk into the morning and the sunlight of hope, pale at first, but getting stronger through the day. shining once again on a country with the opportunity after 14 years to get its future back. [ applause ] >> that was new prime minister keir starmer speaking in london.
5:04 am
we have steve sedgwick outside london, but we start with karen tso in the london newsroom. good morning, karen. >> good morning, frank. strong reaction on markets to the upside. largely expected by market participant. we are larger on the ftse 100 picking up .25%. on that index, we have home builders at the top. some oil giants at the bottom about the increase ofw windfall taxes. on the ftse 250, 1.3% to the upside. occado and savile is a strong play today. meantime, those home builder stocks are certainly marching forward. don't forget plaryers are lookig for interest rate cuts. we may see a new move from the
5:05 am
bank of england next month. it will overhaul planning rules to build 1.5 million new homes over the next five years. roughly double the number of homes completed in the past decade. don't forget the fiscal position for the labour government. they are trying to balance the books. perhaps dollar weakness in the equation. frank. >> karen tso, thank you very much. we turn to steve sedgwick live in westminster. steve, good morning. historic victory in this election. landslide victory at that. what does this mean for the uk and its economy and its people? >> reporter: there's a lot of questions about what the leader of the country, keir starmer, of course, former leader of the opposition and the exchequer
5:06 am
rachel reeves as well. the books are very tight at the moment and the fiscal deficits, ie, how much they are spending over what they receive in revenue is huge in all of these areas as well. the uk's rachel reeves doesn't have that much wiggle room. she said to voters to alleviate the concerns who weren't sure about labour, said no increase in value added tax and no increase in corporation tax and no increase in personal taxes for working people. that made things even more difficult for labour administration that would love to try and tax more people because one thing that the left and center-left likes to do is spend more money. spend more money on the national health service and policing and social care and building more houses as well. a lot of these areas, it remains to be seen what they will raise
5:07 am
taxes on. some entrepreneurs i have been speaking to a mile down the road where karen was reporting now, they are worried about capital gains taxes. is that treated like income tax? it means you could see actually an overdoubling of taxation if you were to sell business. frank, there are questions about what rachel reeves and starmer sta starmer can do. >> you talked about the campaign discussions with adding breakfast in schools and things like that. it will be a difficult road ahead fiscally to make changes in the uk. a lot of eyes in the uk. what is the reaction from world leaders and leader there in europe? >> reporter: congratulations left, right and center. whether it is albanese in australia or trudeau in canada or macron in france.
5:08 am
you know as well as i know, and viewers know this, you have this thing when things are going well with france and the uk, it has been that. it is not cordial since brexit in 2016. macron and various conservative leaders and uk prime ministers have butted heads since brexit. we know starmer will have a better relationship with the french on a personal level. will it change the relationship with the immigration policy? we are not going back into the single market for goods and services. that is what keir starmer has said. the french word between labour and the europe administration. what can they do? that remains to be seen. >> we have to touch on one thing, keir starmer's victory is a move to the center left. in france, we see a move to the right. very quickly, how do you think
5:09 am
this impacts the european market? this change in the uk and the direc directional change in france as we will find out this weekend? >> reporter: i can answer that simply. the markets and economy are looking for stability. you have labour with 412, enormous majority, means we will have political instability. it will be stable at the moment with that big majority. in europe, you have the problems with the coalition in germany and who knows what kind of government we get and if the government of france will work with jgermany. italy is safe down in the south now as meloni has a grip. fairly stable for the pound and ftse and the gilt market. s some osscilations with liz truss
5:10 am
and the budget should be in the rear-view mirror for now. >> steve sedgwick outside westminster. thank you very much. we will have more on the market impact on the uk elections and shift to power in parliament with max at deutsche bank. max, great to have you here. >> good morning, frank. >> looking at the price target was 8,700. a lot of people thought they knew the outcome of the election. any change to the ftse 100 price target following the election result? >> you know, it was the highest target by the largest difference on the street. we got a lot of pushback earlier this year. i think we get less and less pushback for now. i don't think we need to change y our forecast here. if you compare now to the last decade, we are in a much better
5:11 am
environment. steve has been touching upon this. the ftse was trading at a steep discount to the rest of europe with the instability in the uk. the turning around which is an interesting time for markets right now. from here on, with the clear majority in the parliament, we think volatility and political discount should no more be in the books for the uk. on the contrary. more discussions and uncertainty now in france and we see that over the past quarter. tal actually, the uk has had the lowest volatility. from the risk return pers perspective, uk is in a better position than the last couple of months. >> i want to focus on the uk for a moment. home building stocks pop on the priorities of the new government. they want to build 1.5 million home nots in the uk. what other sectors do you expect
5:12 am
to benefit from the transition of the new government? >> one of the things all of the elections have in common is very little headroom with fiscal changes. most of the upcoming elections and uk elections won't really lead to big changes when it comes to fiscal and also not to changes in the sector preferences. another thing about the ftse in general, construction is part of the ftse, is sector weights. the highest weight noghes in th relative to other markets. for example, basic resources. we think there is good upside in the next 12 months. ftse is the highest weight within basic resources. staples. we like utilities. we are not so confident about european tech right now. we don't really like industrials
5:13 am
and ftse has the lowest weight. no big changes from the elections, but more generally speaking, we like the ftse for the sector mix and also for the potentially lower volatility. >> thank you very much. european markets are higher across the board. thank you. we have more to come here on "worldwide exchange," and the one word investors have to know today, but first, wall street has the first chance to react to the fed minutes as jay powell signals not so fast. and the key strategy is the big employment report. we dig into one sector that is creating jobs. and later, amazon is marking 30 years in business as andy tissy is looking at the stock's all-me high. we have a very busy hour when "worldwide exchange" returns.
5:14 am
[crowd chanting] they ignored your potential, and mocked your ambition. but it's not the critic who counts. with every swing and block, your game plan never changed. ♪♪ some still call it luck. let them. because you know what it's always been. inevitable. ♪♪ ♪♪
5:15 am
5:16 am
welcome back to "worldwide exchange." the fed releasing the minutes from the policy meeting after the closing bell on wednesday. the focus may now shift to today and the june's job report out at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. the forecast is a slowing for hiring. let's bring in robert teeter at si silvercrest asset management. >> good to see you, frank. thanks for having plea a me aga.
5:17 am
>> the dual mandate from 272,000 to 200,000. does that make it more important? >> it does, indeed. this report and future payroll reports will be critical. we have seen some signs of slowing in the economy. the thing that is steadfast is the addition of jobs every months. this fed has been resolute on the fight in inflation. they have been wanting to stick around too long by design to keep up the credibility. the numbers will be critical today and the rest of the year. >> robert, we talk about the recent days. the election impact on the market. the uk election just happened. the european market and the ftse is up .25%. the dax is up almost 1%. the cac is up almost 1%.
5:18 am
how do you view the elections with the landslide victory and the finishing of the french elections coming up over the weekend? >> it is generally a good thing to get the elections in the rear-view mirror. it creates a lot of volatility. it is good to have those things set, positive or negative, have them in the rearv-view mirror. some could argue for good reasons there are slower growth rates than the u.s. we think there is an excellent opportunity for stock selection throughout europe. it is a good time to look through relatively cheap companies. >> i want to come back to the u.s. you are managing large-cap growth. tech is once again the leading sector this week. how are you viewing mega cap tech? are you worried about the frothiness? >> valuations are not
5:19 am
compelling. we could argue they are fair. it is a story of earnings. i think that's the story for the rest of the year for the market at large, not just tech. valuations have hit a ceiling here and we're dependent upon earnings coming through. i think the market sniffed out the slower economy and focused on where we can find earnings growth. that is in large-cap growth and technology. we will continue to follow the earnings for the rest of the year. >> we are showing the chart of nvidia. robert teeter, thank you very much. >> great to see you, frank. more to come on "worldwide exchange," more calls to pull out of the race. the high profile donors in the taking when we return. ss van. into the vending area. oh, not the fries! where's the ball? anybody see it? oh wait, there it is! back into play and... -oh no, it's in the water.
5:20 am
wait a minute. are you kidding me? you got to be kidding me. rolling towards the cup, and it's in the hole! what an impossible shot brought to you by comcast business. awkward question... is there going to be anything left... —left over? —yeah. oh, absolutely. (inner monologue) my kids don't know what they want. you know who knows what she wants? me! i want a massage, in amalfi, from someone named giancarlo. and i didn't live in that shoebox for years. not just— with empower, we get all of our financial questions answered. so you don't have to worry. i guess i'll get the caviar... just kidding. join 18 million americans and take control of your financial future with a real time dashboard and real live conversations. empower. what's next.
5:21 am
5:22 am
welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for a check of the top stories with silvana henao. >> good morning, frank. president biden potentially facing mounting pressure to drop out of the 2024 race. some of the democratic party's we wealthiest donors will withhold donations until biden drops out. disney says biden would lose if biden doesn't step down. saks fifth avenue will
5:23 am
acquire neiman marcus for $2.6 billion. it will be called saks global. the current ceo will lead. neiman marcus says the partnership is a proactive choice in the evolving retail landscape as they face c compe competition. and the eu furthering its fight against big tech. elon musk's social media plat f platform x will be given a warning for content online. if x doesn't make the changes, the eu could fine it 6% of its revenue. the eu gave similar warning to apple and meta, frank. thank you very much. we have more coming up on political change in the uk. you see 10 downing street where
5:24 am
prime minister rishi sunak is conceding after the country's election. we will have those comments when he starts speaking and what investors need to know about the new prime minister. more ahead. stay with us. tony, its gone. no. how am i going to do this? welcome to the mdy mid-cap cup, presented by state street global advisors. today's challenge is to play 9 holes without the middle of your bag. how does that sound? that sounds terrible. ♪♪ ♪♪
5:25 am
♪♪ ♪♪
5:26 am
welcome back to "worldwide exchange." looking at a live shot of 10 downing street where there is a changing of the guard as rishi sunak loses big in the election.
5:27 am
sunak is expected to speak in a few minutes. we are looking at the currency rea reaction. the pound-sterling is higher. stock markets around the world are mixed. futures in the u.s. are mixed a bit as well. u.s. investors are keeping an eye on europe and the jobs report expecting to show softening. we dig into one area as amazon is looking at 30 years. we will look at what ceo andy jassy may have up his sleeve to push the tech giant forward. it is friday, july 5th, 2024. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland.
5:28 am
we will have the latest on the uk elections in a moment. let's pick up the half hour of the u.s. stock futures. the s&p is fractionally lower. the s&p and nasdaq with a muted start on this friday. we look ahead of the monthly jobs report. looking at yields. the benchmark at 3.4%. that yield declined from wednesday. wednesday was a holiday sho shortened trading day. we look at the cryptocurrency looking at steep selling after the massive collapse. bitcoin back below 55,000. down 7%. ripple and ethereum are harder hit down 8%. we want to look at the european markets. uk markets in the green. the cac 40 up .50%. the ftse up over .25% after the
5:29 am
election landslide. now back to the breaking news and the historic outcome in the elections in the uk. the labour party winning a landslide victory. prime minister rishi sunak is set to speak at 10 downing street at any moment. the press is gathered there to wait. sunak will offer his ceresignatn to king charles and then keir starmer will take over. let's bring in wilfred frost with more. >> reporter: good morning, frank. we will see the hand over in power in the next couple hours. you don't have the long delay that you have in the u.s. between election day and inauguration. in the next couple hours, rishi sunak will leave downing street and give a good-bye speech. it will be interesting to see the level of personal responsibility he wants to take,
5:30 am
frankly, for the biggest failure for the tory party, perhaps of all time even though he had achievements in the office. he will go to the king and the king will invite keir starmer to government and he will return to 10 downing street 90 minutes after his predecessor left and step into the new home as new prime minister. there will be a quick set vans e will have a new prime minister, frank, in the next couple hours. >> wilf, ywho is the real perso here? people voted for a politician, but give us a sense of who he is. >> one of the criticisms he has had on the campaign trail is he hasn't opened up and he played it very safe. of course, look at the results
5:31 am
today. you can't blame him for that. he inherited a position where the conservative party, incumbent government, was deeply unpopular. that gave him an opportunity to play things safe and essentially win via that route as opposed to the nation behind his views. in that sense, on the campaign trail, you don't always get to see deeply what he stands for. he is much more khar as mc charasmatic. he became a politician late in life. in 2015, he became an mp in his 50s. he has been labour leader since 2020, for the last four and a half years. before that, he was a career lawyer. he rose to be the head of prosecutions from 2008to 2013. i'll leave you with this, frank, at 61, he is actually pretty old
5:32 am
to become prime minister if you look at the last seven. four in their 40s when they became prime minister. he is old as prime ministers go. >> very different from here in the u.s. i read he is supposed to be the inspiration of the love interest in the "bridget jones diary." i want your reaction to the uk elections. >> the markets aren't moving much today. markets react when there is a surprise. this has been well telegraphed in the polls. a massive majority focused on the labour party an. no immediate reaction as we see things today. interestingly, in terms of the outlook over the five-year period, the markets like certainty. we have certainty over who will
5:33 am
rule for at least five years with the majority like this, we will not have any of the shenanigans that the tory party had with the changing leaders as has happened. under the surface, you can look at some contithings that might happen housing is rallying because building houses is unpopular for many areas where the houses end up getting built. with a majority this big, he can push it through. the big thing to watch, frank, is the renegotiation with the eu. it takes place next year early in his parliament. many years out still from the next election. he has a big majority. he has scope, at least, to put the uk slooid ightly closer to u and that might be positive for business. >> wilfred frost, thank you very much. just ahead, we talk to one
5:34 am
group on whether that is translating to more hiring ahead of today's jobs report. we're back on "worldwide exchange" in just a moment.
5:35 am
5:36 am
welcome back to "worldwide exchange." we are less than three hours away from the june jobs report. it is down from the 272,000 in may. the unemployment rate expected to remain at the highest level in two years at 4%.
5:37 am
despite the slowdown in hiring, some buck the trend with twr restaurants adding 25,000 jobs in may. this is the third highest hiring season between 2015. joining me to discuss is michael and stephen which operate restaurants in philadelphia, my hometown, new york and miami. good morning. >> good morning, frank. >> good morning. >> you are actually looking to expand. what is it like to find the people you need to staff the restaurants and hiring and pay? give us a snapshot of both. >> it is the challenge of all our years in business. if anything, we are seeing a stronger candidate flow now than we historically have. i think people are coming back
5:38 am
to the restaurant industry and we keep opening restaurants. there is certainly demand for, you know, labor in the restaurants with a lot of supply of jobs. we're seeing a lot of candidate interest more than at anytime since i've been in the business. >> more candidate interest. mike, i'll come over to you. a lot of times we hear businesses say there's people out there, but it is finding the right talent. how difficult is that with the competition with the best warning workers in your industry with the money going into that and i want to hit on the wages as well. we expect to see a 4% increase in wages in year over year in this report. are you seeing similar trends with wages? >> we are seeing similar trends. we just have to keep up with the market and that's just the fact of the matter. it is a very competitive environment, but we feel like we continue to focus on training
5:39 am
and company culture and ourselves with the ambition of growth to provide more opportunities with employees. that's the name of the game right now. >> again, you are in my hometown of philadelphia, that's where you are based. you have operations in miami and vegas as well. are you seeing regional issues with the right talent for your business? >> i think every city is a little bit different. las vegas has a strong hospitality culture which is a big part of the economy there. i think more professionals or people who make hospitality their career go to vegas. we find in any restaurant, particularly here in philly, some people are just passing through and a way to earn money working on their ultimate career goals and then people who want to make a career out of it with no training and no experience. you can really -- you know, one
5:40 am
of the only businesses that you can start on a line level as a bus boy aror line cook and we he those who start on those lines and work their way up. there really is no ceiling on the industry. >> mike and steve, great to have you both here. thank you very much. coming up here on "worldwide exchange," the one word that every investor needs to know rap chapter. andy jassy 30 years in and the stock on an all-time high. we'll be right back. y tech need to keep up. thank you, verizon business. (kevin) now our businesses get fast and reliable internet from the same network that powers our phones. (woman) all with the security features we need. (aaron) because my businesses are my life. (kevin) man, the fish tacos are blowing up! (aaron) so whatever's next we're cooking with fire.
5:41 am
let's make it happen! (vo) switch to the partner businesses rely on. welcome boack to "worldwide exchange." we have rishi sunak speaking right for. we will listen in. >> i am sorry that we could not deliver what your efforts
5:42 am
deserved. it pains me to think how many colleagues who contributed so much to their communities and our country, will no longer sit in the house of commons. i thank them for their hard work and service. following this result, i will step down and party leader, not me immediately, but once the formal arrangements for my successor are in place. it is important after 14 years in government, the conservative party rebuilds, but also it takes up its crucial role in opposition, professionally and effectively. when i first stood here as your prime minister, i told you the most important task i had was to return stability to our economy. inflation is back to target, mortgage rates are falling and growth has returned. we enhanced our standing in the world rebuilding relations with allies and leading global
5:43 am
efforts to support ukraine and the new home of transformative technologies and our united kingdom is stronger too. i'm proud of those achievements. >> that is a live look at 10 downing street where outgoing prime minister rishi sunak is speaking. his conservative party having one of the worst defeats in decades. keir starmer is now the sixth prime minister in eight years for the kingdom. rishi sunak will head to speak to king charles after conceding defeat in the general election. moving back to the u.s. markets. today marks 30 years since amazon has started in business. our kate rooney is here with what is next for amazon in the andy jassy era.
5:44 am
>> he is different from jeff bezos and despite the wobbles in the stock price, investors like ja jassy. investors still need convincing that he hasn't missed the boat on artificial intelligence. jassy started in 1997 and he founded the successful cloud business within amazon and served as the ceo until 2021until hand picked by jeff bezos for the job. both point out the irony of j jassy's win. cloud growth did stall and fell from 30% growth and revenue bounced back to 15% growth. as for ecommerce, margins have expanded.
5:45 am
a big part of the narrative after falling in negative territory. sports is another big area where jass y jassy is lieeaning in. ads within prime video have been widely applauded by wall street. they have doubled down on healthcare under jassy with one medical and amazon clinics. as far as where he is pulling back, he trimmed in one area where bezos may not have. alexa is the big example. former employees tell me this was bezos' pet project. one person told me jassy voiced frustration that alexa is unable to keep up with leaps in a.i. and can't tell you the sports score of recent games. the company plans to launch a subscription service around alexa as it tries to implement
5:46 am
generative a.i. they pulled back in other areas. the payment technology under jassy's watch and brick and mortar book stores. amazon crossed $2 trillion in market cap. sentiment with ecommerce has helped, but a.i. is still the open question when it comes to investors that i'm talking to. they made investment on the a.i. startup anthropic. a.i. is the big question and jassy's biggest task going forward is prove they will lead in artificial intelligence. frank, back to you. >> joining me now what to discuss what's next for amazon is rocco. >> good morning. thanks for having me. >> we are looking at the big
5:47 am
moves amazon made to date. your price target at 230. what are you seeing in the stock that makes you more bullish than the average analyst? >> i think we can talk about aws in a second. what we point investors to is the advertising going forward. where wall street is too low on expectations for advertising is when you think about third party marketplace is where the commercial activity sits. you look at the growth rate of third party marketplace on advertising. they are converging quickly after 2025. that makes no sense. you see more ad loads like room to grow, especially in international territories and on top of that, you have the amazon prime video opportunity which will have some positive effects on things like twitch and fire tv and so on. aside from the investment in sports content, amazon might have a $1 billion revenue
5:48 am
opportunity in business for this year, but a $10 billion plus in a year or two from now and the market is not factoring that into the numbers. that's literally what we see the out performance. >> rocco, you are saying the market is not factoring that into the market. it is not aws business, as many of us believe. >> yes. what is interesting is when you model this properly, what you see is that the main gap profit driver is advertising. it will remain advertising until 2028 or 2029 before aws is catching up. you have to see the different margin profit. 65% on the amazon.com properties and aws is in the low 30s. >> i want to go back to aws. a very important part of amazon business. according to your research,
5:49 am
artificial intelligence is a $70 billion opportunity over the next decade. what does that mean? they are not 100% use case for a.i. what does that mean when we talk about aws? >> certainly right now, most of the gen a.i. investment goes into the training model, not application. what you will see is all of the hyper scalers, meta, google and amazon. they will invest big. if you not look at cap ex, you see the expense until 2027 and that certainly is going to lift them. also have in mind the market loves to speak about the market share of aws. they have lost market share for six years and will do so going forward. cloud will quadruple by 2024.
5:50 am
that's what we see. >> one last question for you. your estimate is amazon will spend $13 billion on cap ex dw during the fiscal year. what does that mean for the race? are they spending enough or not spending enough? >> it is certainly building incremental on the aws side to just be precise here. if you add whatever -- in the previous year with expansion cap ex, you get to a number of $18 billion. they will repeat this. it will be low and the replacement cycle kicks in for the gpu in two or three years for now and they will spend north of $100 billion in the gen a.i. opportunity. they would not do this if revenue goes against it or contracts against it. >> thank you very much. coming up on "worldwide exchange," a big morning on tap
5:51 am
as the jobs report is expected. neonmoves to make with your moy this critical trading day. that's coming up right after this break. stay with us. ♪ there was a tree, down in the woods ♪ ♪ the prettiest tree, ♪ ♪ that you ever did see... ♪ ♪ now the tree has roots that need water to grow ♪ ♪ grow jobs, grow skills ♪ ♪ make the whole world go. ♪ ♪ make the green grass grow all around all around. ♪ ♪ make the green grass grow all around. ♪ at jpmorganchase, the investments we make help make businesses happen,
5:52 am
that make jobs happen, that make communities happen. together, we make momentum happen.
5:53 am
welcome back to "worldwide exchange."
5:54 am
time for the "wex wrap-up." we start with rishi sunak conceding defeat this morning. he just arrived at buckingham palace to meet with king charles. keir starmer will meet with the king before speaking later this morning. some of the democratic parties wealthy donors say they will withhold funding until president biden drops out of the race. disney says the democrats will lose if biden does not step down. and tesla joins china ev list and is the only foreign manufacturing on the list as it faces competition. and x platform could receive fines for violating the digital services act. it will issue x a formal warning. archhouse management is take
5:55 am
an offering a takeover bid for macy's. and hurricane beryl has resulted in nine deaths in venezuela and jamaica and the winward island nations. and we resume trading after the fourth of july holiday. look at futures which are mixed. s&p is flat, but fractionally lower. the dow is flat. the nasdaq is moving higher this morning. for more, let's bring in thomas martin at global investments. thomas, good morning. >> good morning. >> i want to get a sense of how you see today shaping up after the holiday. what is your wex word of the day? >> the word of the day for the equity markets is slow. you know, after the holiday and the nine days of fourth of july, et cetera, we do have one big piece of news that we are all
5:56 am
anticipating which is the labor report. the market is largely priced in what they think is going to happen which is that we'll get continuing slowing, i guess, in the labor market. that will keep us in the neutral zone with regard to the big macro factors. slowing, but not too much and the equity market hasn't really moved all that much. the tehemes are continuing to b what they were in the first half which is the focus on a.i. >> i want to touch more on the sectors you are seeing in a minute. the big economic report today and the jobs report. 200,000 jobs expected to be created from the previous of 272. we have great articles on cnbc.com saying after the fed minutes, the fed needs to see more inflation reports with the mandate which is jobs.
5:57 am
>> right. they want to make sure that we don't get that hockey stick in what happens with jobs. once you get past that 4% unemployment level with the rise of .5% in the unemployment level, it builds on it selself takes off. they don't want to see that. on the other hand, they say job number one is inflation and they have to keep credibility up by holding for a while. the market seems to be fairly reflecting what the fed is likely to do. we're now at a 75% chance of one rate cut in september and about the same for two rate cuts in december. if they continue to see this data coming through the way it is, that's likely what they'll do. they like to lower rates, but they need to maintain their credibility. >> i want to circle back to the a.i. trade that is powering the markets in the first half of the year. the pick today is ticker vrt.
5:58 am
shares up year to date. it is a picks and shovel trade with the a.i. trade. we have been talking about nvidia being one of the stocks that influences the market. we have seen a lot of volatility in that sense. are you worried about volatility in that trade as well? >> it certainly will be volatile and has proven with nvidia going up and down 20% or so from its highs and coming back. vertiv is really no different. the thing about the a.i. trade right now and discussed it a little earlier with regard to amazon is that the inference cases and the use cases and what people will actually buy and companies will actually buy to use it is developing. it is really unknown. it's an investment phase right now. that's why we're calling it the picks and shovels. you have to have those processors and the data centers
5:59 am
in place. vertiv is all about the data centers and energy that goes into them. the processors and racks are very dense and they create a lot of heat. >> thomas martin, thank you. great to have you here. >> vertiv in the cooling area. >> that's it for "worldwide exchange." a quick look at futures. "squawk box" starts right now. okay. good morning. the real fireworks still to come. the june employment report is on the way. why? because it's friday. let's get that straight. it's very confusing after being off yesterday. great independence day. happy july 4th to all. a landslide victory to the labour party in the uk with the new incoming prime minister. we have a special guest to break it down. and more pressure on president biden losing support of donors. it is friday, july 5th, 2024.
6:00 am
"squawk box" begins right now. good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen. becky is off. i hope everybody had a good july 4th, independence day. we are about to talk to somebody who doesn't love independence day. a different type of independence day they had in the uk. take a look at u.s. equities at this hour. still three and a half hours before we open up. when we open up, it will open up eight points higher. nasdaq up four points. s&p is up a bit. the ten-year note at

43 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on