welcome to "power lunch," everybody, alongside kelly evans i'm tyler mathisen. glad you could join us. stocks are higher today after a strong gain in jobs, 206,000, but another tick higher in the unemployment rate to 4.1%. bond yields turning a little lower on the news. so is the stage finally, finally

set for a rate cut? >> the pressure on president biden growing by the day. democratic donors threatening to cut off money if he doesn't step aside. what options do the democrats have? let's do that and a check on the markets in the meantime. let's take a quick look at the s&p and nasdaq setting all time intraday highs today. the dow hanging on to a 15 point game. we're looking at shares of nvidia lower after a rare downgrade. new street cutting the stock to neutral. amd and arm are both with nice 5% to 7% gains today. energy is the worst performing sector, every single stock in the group is lower, although oil is higher and nearing $85 a barrel as we watch the path of hurricane beryl. more on that coming up. jpm and wells report their results kicking off earnings season, but right now they are in the red. >> let's kick off with the jobs report. the u.s. economy adding 206,000 jobs in june and our next guest

says that is exactly the kind of number the fed would like to see. with the unemployment rate ticking up to 4 4.1% he says th case for two interest rate cuts by year-end is even stronger. esophagus poshea. this number 206,000 is a goldilocks number, not too hot, not too cold. >> that's right. we've seen job gains of 175,000 over the past three months, that's close to the economy's long-term potential. we also saw a bit softer wage growth in june which is what the fed is looking for in terms of inflationary pressures there. i think this report is pretty much what the fed was hoping to see. and this does support some fed fund rate cuts towards the end of this year. >> do you think that the fed has threaded the needle of sort of arresting inflation, but avoiding a recession? >> it sure looks like that at this point. you know, we still have good job growth, we have good wage

growth, wages are increasing more rapidly than inflation so we should see consumer spending continue to increase through the rest of 2024 and we should see slower inflation. shelter inflation should slow, the slightly softer job market should reduce inflation coming from the labor market. is looks like we will get continued low unemployment and inflation that is moved towards the fed's 2% objective. >> so there's only about a 6% chance they could cut in july, gus, which would be at the end of the month, 30th and 31st. should those odds go up? why is the fed going to wait until september? >> they want to make sure that inflation is starting to slow up again. we made significant progress on inflation in 2023 and then that kind of stalled in the first part of 2024. we've had one good month of inflation readings in may, june should look good again, but they don't want just one or two months, they want three, four months indicating that inflation

is slowing and moving towards 2% before they whomove. end of july is too early but september, perhaps november are both in play at this point. >> does the likelihood of an interest rate cut suggest that we're going to embark on a series of interest rate cuts or maybe just a couple, one or two this year, and then more wait and see on the part of the fed? >> i think the fed will move slowly. so we may see cuts at every other meeting, for example. i think that monetary policy is contrac contractionary right now, but officials aren't quite sure what the neutral rate s the rate where it's neither adding to or subtracting from growth. they want to take their time, but i think given the strength of the economy they can do that so they cut every other meeting,

they see how the labor market responds, they see how inflation responds and they can afford to be cautious with this. >> interesting you bring that up because i don't know, you probably saw the comments from williams within the last couple of days where he said he doesn't think the neutral rate is higher -- a lot of people think the neutral rate because the economy hasn't slowed so much, it could be 3, 4, 5%, he said, no, it's probably not much different from the low we had expect it had to be which means policy right now is really quite restrictive. >> that's right. that may very well be the case but we are not seeing that in the economy. we still have good gdp growth and good job growth. we don't know the answer to that question. the neutral rate is an unknown. there may have been structural changes with the pandemic and the recovery that we've seen. so given that that's a good reason for them to be cautious and to take their time cutting rates so they don't cut too much and then inflation starts to pick back up again. >> gus, thank you as always.

it was very nice to see you. >> thank you. >> have a great weekend. gus faucher. >> that's the macro talk. the stephanopoulos has new intraday day highs. our next guest says what matters for long-term investors is whether recession fears become a reality. let's bring in brian jacobson. it seems like no matter if people are split on the turn turn now or later or whatnot they seem to be agreeing that the fed should cut here. >> that seems to be the case. i was looking at x and linkedin, everybody saying let's just get on with it as far as the rate cuts but the fed wants to be incredibly cautious, they feel like they can, but by cautious i think that means come september they will be in a position where they will be able to start confidently cutting rates, probably at an every other meeting clip. if they do that i think that we can avoid a recession, we do

know that manufacturing has effectively been in a recession with an ism manufacturing index below 50, 18 out of the last 19 months. the breadth of job gains there has been very narrow. so some parts of the economy have already gone through a recession. it really does seem to us that the fed they can really pull this off as far as avoiding an actual broad-based recession, provided they do start cutting come september. >> so in that context, what do we say about markets? do we say that the narrowness of the leadership and the fact that the top stocks are 37% of the market, is thata reason to be concerned that it's masking an underlying slowdown or is that a reason to be excited about the prospects for ai? what do you think? >> i think that's exactly right. i think that the strength of the top names has really masked the weakness underneath the surface. we did have, if you look at the russell 2,000, effectively another earnings recession.

you have had not just a double dip earnings recession but almost like a triple and quadruple dip earnings recessions over the last few years if you count it as being two consecutive quarters in a row of declines in earnings per share. if you look at some of the other sectors as far as declines in the earnings really there has been an earnings recession kind of rolling across the different sectors and sizes, it's been the big boys that have really kind of carried the day in terms of earnings and also with the price action. so if we do get the fed beginning to cut, avoiding that broaden-based recession you could see a decent junk rally from this point forward but it all does hinge on the fed changing its tune. >> i want to turn back to inflation. inflation has come down but prices really haven't so far, they are still above where they were. do you see a scenario under which prices could actually decline if the economy slows and companies have to discount to

attract customers? >> yes, i think that is maybe one of the more out of consensus calls, though there are others who share that view is the idea that if we do get this slowing we are already seeing consumers fatigued with these high prices. there's already reports about how back to school shopping discounts are going to probably start next week already. so price wars are beginning. we have already seen it as far as what the goods prices information that what the most recent report and the pce, those prices are down about .1% year on year when we get the cpi numbers next week we will probably see that trend continuing, granted it's mostly in durable goods, not necessarily nondurable, but you could see that begin to widen and get a little bit deeper. with service sector prices that's really the part that you've seen the positive inflation. but even that could begin to slow as we see those market rats begin to feed into the way in which the bls figures the

equivalents number. >> there is a lot of disinflation, lumber prices have crashed, we've talked about the grocery store aisles with consumer prices where there's a lot of pressure on those companies to start cutting things back. e-commerce prices have been declining for two things, that covers apparel, furniture and the rest of t it's not crazy to talk about that. it's education, health care, all the stuff subsidized by the government where things keep going up. that's where we saw all the job gains this past month again. >> it does seem like if you work for the government or health care you are in a pretty good spot in terms of the job creation, other areas it's been a little bit weak. if you look at the persistent price pressures it really does come from those areas that are really getting as you point out those government subsidies. that's pretty much been the story since the government has been subsidizing a lot of these areas. i mean, if you look at the cost of higher education, look at all the issues that higher education is encountering. we see a number of small liberal arts colleges struggling

financially, but what's been happening to tuitions? have those rolled over? no, it's because it's being paid for by subsidized by taxpayers. >> is there an out of sort of consensus stock market sector that you have your eye on as one that could potentially do better than the averages for the remainder of the year? >> well, this might be a little out of consensus, i think that actually international is going to have an opportunity to shine from this point forward. mostly driven by two forces, number one, the uk as an example, they already had a recession last year, lots of europe did, so they're beginning to recover. the ecb is cautiously cutting. but the moment that the fed suddenly changes its tune about the path of rate cuts, we could see the dollar weaken. so at this point i would probably be taking the under as far as with the dollar will it appreciate or dee appreciate, it's likely going to dee appreciate and that would read

down to the benefit of u.s.-based investors when you think about investing in those foreign companies as also an investment in their currency. that might be the most out of consensus view is the idea that we are slightly overweight international equities. >> okay. so maybe a little help from rebounding economies and a tailwind from a weaker dollar. brian jay sob sent, thank you very much. and coming up, the negative effects of biden administration an's poor debate performance still emerging, some supporters pausing donations, others calling for him outright to step down, but as the campaign bides time to come up with the next move. baxter in discussions to sell the kidney care unit for more than $4 billion including debt. ameritrade is now part of schwab. bringing you an elevated experience, tailor-made for trader minds. ♪♪

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welcome back to "power lunch." calls for a biden replacement continue after what our next guest called the, quote, worst performance ever by a major party candidate in a general election presidential debate. and he's changing his outlook for certain swing states because of t joining us now is larry sabato professor and director for the center for politics at the university of virginia. larry, welcome back. as always, great to see you. you look at the election the only way it makes sense to look at it and that is state by state. what did the debate do in those so-called swing states? how did the calculations change? >> well, we haven't had a lot of good data out of individual swing states yet, tyler. we will. but the overall picture clearly moved in trump's direction from a lead of maybe two points, somewhere in that vicinity, to a lead of six points. now, think about that. six points, that's a lot in this very polarized partisan era.

and that means that most of those swing states, and credibly could be all, have moved in trump's direction, and the map is expanding. we're getting states that were leaning biden or leaning democratic, like minnesota, for example, potentially leaning in the other direction. so it was not a successful night for joe biden and i know that isn't a bulletin for anybody. >> no, not a bulletin. but the way you look at it is leans or likely democrat, some of those have moved into the toss up category. you're saying some may have moved even into the lean gop category. let me ask you this question, tonight -- well, today the president is taping an interview with george stephanopoulos, and my sense is that on debate night he had, quote, a bad night, that's what they all say. my contention would be that he could have a good night tonight, a good night tonight, but that wouldn't change the fundamental

issue which is that a large plurality of the electorate think simply that the president is too old to run and carry out another term. and that won't change. >> that's true. and you had 51 million people watching the debate. with all due respect to abc, i don't think they're going to have 51 million people watching that interview. but even if they did watch, what you said is absolutely valid. the white house built up that first debate and said that all of our doubts about joe biden and his mental capacity would be cleared up. well, no, they were made ever so much more murky, and it was -- it was shocking. look, you can't get those images out of your head, and i say that from a nonpartisan perspective, just looking at debates, judging it against other candidates from 1960 on. it's not enough to say it was awful. it was catastrophic.

so are you going to somehow wipe all that away with a short -- relatively short interview with an abc anchor? i don't think so. >> larry, the point was made last hour that a lot of these congressional democrats might be watching those polls you're referencing. when should we expect them to come out? because if they come out unfavorably we could see more than i think the two so-called that have called for him to step aside, with he could see more. >> well, that's the key right there. that and donors. we have had so few donors and congressmen in office calling on biden to step down that he has felt no great pressure to do so, but i think a series of polls coming out, public and private -- remember, many of these office holders and the donors have access to private polling -- when they start to see the numbers deteriorate and they start to match up in their state or in a swing state near them, what they have felt based on their watching the debate, then i think there will be a reaction. whether it will be enough, you

know how people are in politics, they don't want to get out front. they're the ones who will suffer if it goes in the other direction. >> so let's move from out front to behind the scenes. i think there have been two sitting congress people who have called for him to step aside and some donors who have gotten a little gun high here. those are the ones who have gone public with their views. what do you think is happening behind the scenes, not in the cloak rooms, that's such an antique thought, but what do you think is happening behind the scenes at the white house, among the donor class, on capitol hill, in the state capitals with respect to the biden candidacy? >> well, donors and office holders i can tell you they're talking amongst themselves, which is by the way one of the problems in getting a solution to this. they all tell each other how horrible it is and they've got to do something about it and they will talk about circulating a letter and apparently some have done that in congress, but

we haven't seen it. it hasn't been released. maybe it will be, or maybe it won't be. so nothing is going to happen until a lot of other people go public. >> take us through the mechanics. if the president decides that he is going to step aside, take us through the mechanics of what would take place to find another nominee, and is there a likely successor nominee who is not named kamala harris? >> that's a great question. wh i wish i had a good answer to, but i have a medium good answer to it, which is, a, we don't know, tyler, we have no idea what they will actually do because it's unprecedented, but i would think based on the comments of people like jim clyburn, an influential congressman from south carolina, who is in the leadership in the house, that they would try to have what he calls a mini primary which i think of as debates and, you know, three,

four, five places around the country for people who want to run. now, it can't be just anybody. they will have to show they have support from x number of delegates. they have all been elected already to the convention. they will have to show they have support from a certain number of delegations, certain number of actual delegates and then they will get in the debates and apparently debate and then move from there to the convention at which point i guess they will have final speeches or presentations and we will actually have a convention that matters that picks a nominee. will it be messy? this is the democratic party. of course it will be messy. any of us who have been around them, as i have for decades and decades, it would be messy with the republicans, too, but they are drawn disproportionately from the managerial party -- the managerial class, rather. i think it would be messy, but it would be a good way to do it is. the alternate is to have kamala harris designated really by

biden and other democratic leaders, obama, clinton, hillary clinton, michelle obama, nancy pelosi, you fill in the blanks, whoever you want in there. that's another way of doing it. >> and the issue is that only she can inherit the money, is that right? the $250 million or whatever biden currently has. >> i've been told there are ways to do it and it might be tricky and may be subject to challenge whereas with kamala harris it's straightforward since it's a biden/harris ticket and the delegates while pledged to biden are really pledged to the biden/harris ticket. so that's the easiest way at least for the money and for legal requirements, getting on the ballot, but they would probably be able to work it out. it would be difficult, but very possible. ohio was of course the potentially the great exception because they have this ridiculously early deadline in early august to get a nominee on the ballot and the democratic

convention is in later august, but i assume all these things could be fixed. what's really important is they need to get a nominee who can compete and potentially win. that's what democrats want. >> but could it be biden? i mean, that's the argument that the big donors some of them are making that he still has the best chance. >> that's what some people think. he will have to showtonight and i think every single day in events that are not dominated by a teleprompter that he is capable of doing the work as president, even continuing as president for the remaining months of his current term. that's up to him. >> larry, always good to see you. larry sabato, university of virginia, center for politics. appreciate it. elsewhere, bitcoin is hitting multiple technical back stops and crumbling below them. it's now around $56,000 amid the decline. we will explain and discuss whether it has to fall further, further ahead.

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communications services sector. why not? let's look at it. there it is. highest level since 2000, not an all time high, however. meta, alphabet, netflix lifting that group. let's turn to the bond market where yields are falling after this morning's jobs report and increased chatter that lower interest rates may be around the corner. rick santelli is around the corner in chicago. rick? >> absolutely, tyler. this report goes a long way to fuel the notion that rate cuts may be coming from the fed. look at a one year chart at the unemployment rate, at 4.1% it's nearly a three-year high going back to november of '21. it doesn't end there. let's look at a one-year chart of average hourly earnings. dipping under 4% at 3.9, it is a three-year low. and how did all of that play out in the treasury complex? look at twos and tens, look at the volatility at 8:30 eastern, up, down, but ultimately here we

are on the lows, basically close to the lows for the entire week. as a matter of fact, let's open the chart up for the week because this is really guys incredible. we are now at 460 in a two year which means we're down 15. 1-5 basis points on the week. and the ten year not far from that at 427 it's down 9 on the day, it's down 13 on the week. these are big moves that underscore the range in ten year is basically 4.25 value, 4.5% is where the resistance s and what's really important is next week, guess what, we have threes, tens and 30s auction which always cements the eyeballs of the world on those maturities and the topic in an election year, debt and deficits. tyler, kelly, back to you. >> thank you very much, rick. rick santelli. let's turn to the energy sector. the worst performer on the index today, pippa stevens here to defend it.

>> no. >> it's good name and its reputation. >> boom, bust, and there's no love when it comes to equilibrium for investors. every component in the red. thanks to nat gas, down another 4% today and hitting the lowest level in seven weeks. you see it there. part of this is because we've seen an uptick in production that has come back online especially in the northeast. we had pipeline maintenance down in texas, that's now complete and so that means that more gas is flowing, which cuts prices. finally storage, just remains that really big overhang still about 20% above the five-year average. heading into the weekend, hurricane beryl is what everyone is talking about. it made landfall in the mexican yucatan peninsula earlier today, it has weakened but as it reenters the gulf it is expected to get stronger once again and now the cone of uncertainty, the hurr hurricane's path includes a larger swath of texas, corpus christi 5% of u.s. refining capacity, that region is very

close. >> that's why oil is higher? >> potentially, but if we get a refinery outage that's bearish for oil. if you have fewer refiners operating demand for crude drops but it is bullish for product prices. fewer refineries, prices head higher. >> i understand why the storm would be pushing the price up potentially but weird that the energy stocks are underperforming. >> i think we've seen they don't correlate with oil in the way they used to. it comes down to opportunity lost and if other sectors look more attractive, it was boom, bust, now equilibrium. cash flow looks very good but it's not all that exciting with nat gas under pressure and oil having no clear upside catalyst. >> pippa, thanks. let's get to contessa brewer for a cnbc news update. >> israel's prime minister says there are still gaps between negotiators working to reach a ceasefire deal between israel and hamas in the nine-month war

in gaza. talks restarted after hamas reportedly made a revised proposal on terms of the deal. the israeli prime minister's office says the head of israel's intelligence agency just returned from talks with mediators and negotiations are expected to resume next week. iran delayed closing the polls to 10:00 p.m. local time to give voters more time to make a choice for the country's president in a runoff election. this race pits a hard line former nuclear negotiator against a reformist lawmaker. the first round of voting saw iran's lowest turnout in the islamic republic's history. more americans are complaining about air travel. consumer complaints to the transportation department sky lated to 9 #7,000, the highest number since the covid-19 pandemic began in 2020 when airlines had to figure out what to do about all those canceled flights. more complaints even though airlines reported a drop of more than 1% in canceled flights from

a year earlier. tiler >> thank you very much, contessa. still to come, real estate has a real problem, that group is the only sector in the s&p negative for the year. lots not working but is anything holding strong? we will explain that one next. the future is not just going to happen. you have to make it. and if you want a successful business, all it takes is an idea, and now becomes the future.

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welcome back to "power lunch." during the first half of the year real estate was the worst performing sector in the s&p and it's still the only sector in the red year to date. can it make a come back in the back half? let's ask the head of research at morgan stanley. last time you were on prolojis was one of your top picks. up 8% since then. what do you do with that one and with the whole space? >> thanks for having me on. the real estate sector has suffered from two things this year, one, rates have been much higher than expected if you think about real rates, rates i justed for inflation they're up 40 basis points this year. most people at the beginning of

the year thought rates would be going down. that's been a headwind. the second piece is going back to your comments on prologis is earnings have been a little slower, a little bit more disappoint to go start the year than people anticipate. when we look at earnings revisions in the real estate space they've been coming down in the 2% to 3% zip code. our recommendation is to say selective. the interest cost headwinds, cost of capital headwinds playing in the sector the beginning of the year continue into next year. i remind people that rates are coming -- most rates are issuing in the 5.5% to 6% range when they have debt coming closer to 4. you have to stay selective in this market. >> is there any glimmer -- almost anybody we have on who talks about commercial real estate is down on office stocks. how about you? is there any glimmer of hope there? >> yeah, you know, we've been very bearish office -- office as

well, particularly in the sun belt and the west coast. i think the one glimmer of hope that we would have is sort of midtown manhattan. when you think about park avenue, avenue of the americas, sixth avenue where we've seen some activity. i think it's too early to turn outright constructive, but that's where we're seeing the best leasing and occupancy trends which is the exact opposite from the sun belt market and the west coast where we've seen occupancy continue to go in the wrong direction. >> i'm young enough to remember the real estate collapse in the late '80s in the sun belt. there was a lot of commercial real estate that went down there. is that a possibility? >> no, i think this cycle when i think about commercial real estate it's much more diversified. we've talked a lot about office and have seen office values go down 30% from peak to trough based on appraisals. if i think about the other asset

classes like industries where values hold pretty well, some of the other sectors are doing well. i think you will see idiosyncratic consistency, capital structures out of place on the office side but the whole commercial real estate as an asset class probably fairs better than the previous cycle. >> what would be the biggest swing factor? fed rate cuts. >> i think i agree with your comment, i think 25 to 50 basis points is a marginal tailwind, but i don't think is enough to sort of get the sector going. i think you need some form of reacceleration in the growth function. so if you think about the s&p where you're looking for 8% growth this year, 13% growth next year, our real estate investors are look for 2% to 3% growth for the next two years. we need some form of either technology or innovation or just in surge in demand to get growth at least in the mid single digits for people to get interested again. >> ron, thank you very much.

ron kamden, morgan stanley, we appreciate it. >> thanks for having me. >> you got it. still ahead, bitcoin and other cryptos losing steam, we will discuss the fallout for that sector when we return right here on "power lunch." okay, team! oh, thank you so much i couldn't have done it without you. honestly, i don't do a whole lot here. i'm really just here for the at&t internet, it's super-fast so, any pre-launch concerns? what if nobody buys them? that's mean or, what if everybody buys them? oh, i hadn't thought of that that's probably not gonna happen can we handle that kind of traffic? the network can handle it! i downloaded eight hours of true crime stories just during our last video call

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all right. bitcoin down 3% right now, $56,000, and that is actually quite a rebound from the depths it hit earlier today, down 3% right now. joining us now is tanea. >> today's big move is largely about the big exchange that ten years ago went bankrupt after a major hack and the trusty of the exchange has done repayments to creditors which was expected. it said that would start in july. bitcoin's price fell under 55k

for the first time since february, it's trimmed some of those losses. it has broken below a key support level at $57,000 and if it struggles to reclaim that for too long, tyler, 49,000 becomes new support. so this is likely a short-term move. there is nothing about it that fundamentally alters the positive second half outlook for bitcoin investors, still expected to reach an all time high this year. you may see them try to build exposure into this dip. i was speaking with zach pandel. think about to how closely we were watching the hassling this year, it lowered the amount of bitcoin supply that's being produced. now we have this other source of bitcoin supply coming in and negating those positive effects of the having at least in the short term. you're seeing coin base and microstrategy struggling, miners are under pressure, $139 billion

in long bitcoin liquidations in the derivatives market over the past 24 hours. that also adding pressure to prices. >> quick question. a lot of people who missed the move in bitcoin in recent years were looking to ether as a possible place to jump? because i believe that etf approval has not happened yet, maybe it could experience a similar rally. it has been hit twice as hard as bitcoin. what are you hearing on that front? >> we are expecting to see those s-1s for the etfs filed any day now, sometime this month for sure. we know that the exchanges got approval a couple weeks back to be able to list those. we are waiting for the funds to file those s-1 registrations. it is looking, you know -- the outlook is very positive for that. i think the broad expectation is that those will be approved and, you know, it's not -- i think that there are bigger movers between now and -- sorry, not

movers, drivers between now and the end of the year. think of the macro and think of the upcoming u.s. election but certainly in the short term should we see those etf approvals i think you will get a little thump. >> thank you so much. we appreciate it. >> thanks you guys. coming up, talk about a shot in the arm, chip maker arm holdings jumping 30% in the past month including 6% today thanks to the ai rally. is it too late for investors to wl k r weilasoutrader next.

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welcome back. let's get to three stock lunch with our trades today we welcome victoria green cio of g squared private growth. great to have you here. let's start with amazon, higher again, record high, in fact. could maybe have its first close above 200. the frustrated investors think that jeff bezos is selling every time it hits 200 and they want that overhang to go away. what would you do with the stock? >> it was on for me as a buy even with this level. it's this beautiful long term growth chart since 2022 and it's

not like you've had some crazy expon exponential. they continue to gain market share and i absolutely love this stock because it's not just retail. now it's aws, that's better margin business for them, probably going to hit 40% in the next five years for margins for them. years for them. aws their second biggest behind retail. then it's advertising, and advertising is coming alon great, and that's a huge high margin business for them. could be a $100 billion line for them. they continue to push in other areas. look at the saks and neimans deal. would they become logistic support and start licensing that to other companies? not only do they take care of their existing lines of businesses, they continue to grow more and more faster revenue growing businesses. ads is a number one growth business for them right now, and i love the story with amazon. it's a buy from me. i think this is going to be the $3 trillion club within five

years. >> let's move on to arm holdings. one of the largest chip makers in the world. stock up 30% in the past month. shares have more than tripled since the company's ipo last year. what would you do with arm? >> arm is still a buy for me because you have to put that in the context of what the semiconductor space has been doing and what other stocks have been doing. tesla ran up 25% the last four days. some of these tech sectors are moving fast. it's a momentum rally, and arm has a player in everything, literally 70% of the people in the globe have something that arm has touched. 99% of smartphones, what their ceo claims, are having some sort of arm ip. they don't manufacture anything. they're a total ip space, but they have designs everywhere and their designs are better. assuming they continue to have this edge on their competitors, their main, you know, sort of people that they supply are companies like apple, nvidia, qualcomm, and all these big boys that are seeing massive growth in demand, i think arm continues to grow along with the semi space and is well positioned

especially if we get that faster cycle in smart phones, which we're expecting. we're expecting a faster recycle in smartphones, upcycle in pcs. that speaks very well for arm to continue to grow in this space. when you look at the chart, it could continue to push up from here. >> one of the great post-ipo success stories, arm has been. you mentioned saks. let's move on to macy's. stock's up nearly 10%, although no amazon involvement here that i have heard. >> not yet. but look, for me, this is sell it, get out of it. they have been playing this game three times now. they had it in december, march, and now a sweeter deal. my concern is the stock has been bouncing around about 18.5 to 20, 21% for the last eight months. it's done nothing and they're having this turnaround story. my concern is the board of management is going to put more belief in their turnaround story and turn down this offer and see the shares pull back, because right now, they are. they're thinking they're growing

but i think there's a big fat speed bump coming down the road for macy's, which is the consumer slowdown, which is expected to hit department stores a little bit harder than, say, specialty retailers like tj maxx or ross. i don't believe what macy's is doing is sustainable. i know there's a lot of excitement. we're turning it around. we've right-sized, closed some stores. we're going to get the ship going. i think the ship can't move. it's just too antiquated a business model for me. so, absolutely, love to sell it right here. get a little bit of profits. but this deal hasn't been done -- fool me once, shame on me. fool me twice -- and now we're fool me three times. >> i'm sure the investors are ho hoping the third time's the charm. victoria, thanks for your help and all your thoughts today. we appreciate it. vtoa eeel.kly >>icrigrn. we will be right bark. back back back

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♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ welcome back. here's a quick glance at markets, which have moved toward session highs with the dow up 61 points, and it's the laggard,

although it is helped by apple, which happens to be one of nfl legend eddie george's picks in this year's stock draft. eddie now has a commanding lead, up 43% thanks to his selections of apple and his top pick, nvidia. >> wow. scorching. we only have a couple minutes left in the show, want to look at a few vacation stories in honor of this friday, which are getting some attention on cnbc.com. of course, sseema mody is here o help us. >> travel is on everyone's mind. 36% of americans say they are willing to go into debt to pay for a vacation. on the surface, it doesn't seem like a good practice, financially, but emotionally, spiritually, taking a vacation, of course, can be good for you, an opportunity to create new memories with family is certainly generated a big debate online. so, tyler, i got to ask, is it okay to go into debt for a vacation? >> i am going to borrow a 24%

for the spiritual comfort that i'm going to get. i think vacations are best financed out of savings, not out of debt, particularly if you're financing it using a credit card at a very high rate. i think that's a bad idea. >> good point. kelly? >> people are so obsessed with the traveling and posting on social media. they think everyone else is doing it so they should do it too. this is a thumbs down. >> social media, interesting you just mentioned that. here's the next big story that's catching our attention. more people are looking to rent cars on their summer travel trip versus using their own car. of course, there's a lot to consider here when making this decision. the article lays it out very clearly on cnbc.com. maybe you've got a tesla and have range anxiety or maybe you just got a lot of kids with all that stuff, and you need a bigger car. so, do you rent or use your own? >> it's like you're talking to me. i happen to have one of those aforementioned cars, and we're taking our 18-year-old away to college. we can't pack it full enough, so

i have rented a big suv to drive to his distant school to do this. it's not a vacation rental, but if you have a lot of stuff that you have to transport to, let's say, a state park or a beach or whatever, i can see renting a car to do it if you don't have that. >> i want to rent an rv, and i would like to know, wouldn't that be fun? >> with five kids. >> maybe some grandparents and maybe some baby sitters. just neighbors. >> caravan. >> i'm bringing you guys. yes. i would like to know if that's a possibility. >> last one, an op-ed from doug, they say, we should skip the vacation photo ops and enjoy the moment. it's nice to have photos and videos, but people get far too consumed taking the photo versus just enjoying being in front of the eiffel tower, enjoying the breeze. >> i have a scanndalous take on this. the photos might be the only thing i remember from any of these vacations i'm spending all this money on.

i wish i had taken more videos. >> my son hates it when we say, we got to take a picture, but i'll tell you, some of my favorite photos are photos we took while on vacation. one particular last year in norway. seema, thanks. >> i second that. >> check out all those stories on cnbc.com. thanks for watching "power lunch," everybody. >> "closing bell" starts right now. kelly, thanks very much. i'm scott wapner live from post nine at the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour begins with the bull case for stocks. and why wharton profess jeremy siegel says we're not done yet. jobs report was largely in line, though a tick up in the unemployment rate sent yields lower. the major averages are all in the green at this moment. communication services and tech are the two best sectors today, hence the nasdaq extending those