why are they charging a lot? aye i've got the industry pointing out to me that construction labor costs and materials costs are up almost 40% over the last five years. so, when you put in a claim, it's expensive to come back. litigation is a big one too >> wow. that's a lot. we all got to pay for it. contessa rewer, we care about this stuff. it's important. that will do it for "overtime." "fast money" starts now. ♪ indeed it does, jon. thanks. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money" and here's what's on tap tonight. more new records, the nasdaq and the s&p setting all-time high closes. how much longer can the run keep going, and who will lead the pack? plus, it may be july 5th, but macy's shares still seeing fireworks. the stock jumping as much as 14% on reports of a sweetened buyout bid. can a deal get done? is there even more deal making in store for the retail sector?

and later, novo nordisk shares shrug off new concerns over potential side effects. bitcoin breaks down, but where's the crypto going next? we're counting down to q2 earnings with a little old-fashioned "options action." here to play -- how to play delta and the big banks ahead of their reports. good evening, everybody, i'm tyler mathisen in tonight for melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight or really not on the desk tonight, tim seymour, mike ko, and carter worth. i'm here all by myself. is it something i said? i'm sorry. your stayed away. >> we'll get back to you in just a second. >> we're going to -- >> we'll settle it in just a moment. we're going to start, however, with a big day for big tech. the old guard stocks staging a strong rally today with meta, alphabet, apple, microsoft, amazon, all, all of them clousing at all-time highs. the moves coming even as payroll growth slowed in june and the

unemployment rate surprisingly rose hitting its highest level in two and a half years. one notable name not joining the party, however, today, nvidia, down nearly 2% today. it is still more than 10% off its record that it hit just about two weeks ago. so, what do you make of today's action? and did the jobs report do enough to boost hopes for rate cuts sometime later this year? tim, figure it all out for us. >> tyler, very, very sad, and i wish i was there holding your hand right now. >> me too. >> we're doing that tv -- yes, i know. it's amazing what we've talked about in terms of concentration in this market, and yet, when nvidia is no longer driving the market, but we have the at least five or six of the magnificent seven otherwise, including tesla, who i think we're going to talk about, you know, is this the kind of breadth, ha, ha, that you want to see from the market? what's amazing is that the nasdaq -- i'm sure carter's got a view on this too -- but you're

talking about a fresh bull market from april 22nd. it's up 20% through today. it's outperformed the s&p. the kind of leadership that in the past you've wanted, and on a day when you got a payroll number that really did have -- i won't use the g-word or the goldilocks word, but i will point out that there's a dynamic here when you revise lower $110,000, the two previous months. you saw the unemployment move higher. you saw the participation rate move higher, and you actually saw wage gains come down a bit. it's everything that the fed wanted. and it's everything that the equity markets seemingly have already priced in, and yet today was an opportunity to do that. that's what they do. i'm not too put off by this kind of price action. certainly when it comes to the markets, there is relative value within semis, but today is a day that i think is very interesting because the macro was so good. >> carter, tim won't use the g-word. i will. goldilocks. what's wrong with goldilocks? i mean, it certainly seems like we're in a sweet spot here.

the economy is growing, but maybe slowing a little bit. inflation seems to be moving towards the 2% target. maybe. but we seem to be getting to that point without inducing a recession. for now, at least, carter. >> i mean, the big thing is, ten-year money, right? which is the big subject. it is, in that sense, goldilocks. we are not higher for longer, nor are we down to 2%, 3%. we are sitting here in this very benign rate environment, which is allowing for a multiple expansion just as also there is meaningful earnings growth. but i think the most important development this week of all, really, is that the equal weight nasdaq 100, because we know the qqq, the snnasdaq 100, is makin new highs every week, every month, but the equal weight nasdaq 100, just today, exceeded its high from march 21st. so, three months later, finally, and this speaks to breadth within the most concentrated area of the market.

the equal weight nasdaq 100 making a new all-time high today, not since march. so, to some extent, you are seeing an improvement there. it's lagging the actual aggregate, but that's an important milestone to have accomplished today. >> and i think, mike, the sort of the same can be said in a way -- maybe not the same -- for the sam bank&p where the index is doing better than the average stock. >> that's right, of course, because in the s&p has been propelled largely by its large 'constituent stocks. you mentioned one of the ones that's fallen off a little bit, that being nvidia, but when you have the megacaps sort of leading the way, they can really move the index significantly, and actually, that speaks to something else. i think it sort of is the fundamental backdrop to the things that carter is talking about, which is that, you know, there are a lot of stocks that didn't really participate, and what that means is there are a lot of stocks that don't have

the same hit evaluations that some of the megacaps do, and just going back to the payroll number for just a second too, obviously those who are looking for positive action from the fed, positive, meaning they are going to bring rates down or ease on the monetary side, that, of course, is supported a little bit by the fact that out of those 206,000 jobs, you know, we're talking about 82,000 from the health care space, 70,000 in state and local government-added jobs and actually a decline on the manufacturing side, so if anybody is looking for information that, along with maybe a declining pace of wage increases could be supportive of fed action, i think that's it. >> let's kick around the fed a little bit. because tim, the market has done just fine so far this year without an interest rate cut from the fed when interest rate cuts were all anybody was talking about in late 2023. everybody expected them to be well on a path to multiple rate cuts by this point. it hasn't happened.

the market's doing fine. does the market need, now, an interest rate cut to move sort of next level? >> i'm not sure it does. there's two dynamics that i think we need to focus on. one is, be careful that -- it's nice to see the unemployment rate come up. i think the fed's target is 4.2%, but what happens when inflation is higher than the fed's target employment target? they've got this dual mandate, but they don't always meet in the middle, and you have the sense here where i think inflation is going to stay higher, and maybe force the fed to stay longer. but if we're then bringing it back to the market, a market that we like to at least compare to 1999 for those people that think we're bubblicious, you know, there's -- the cost of capital is 175 basis points cheaper than it was in 1999. so, this is a market that isn't necessarily -- i know on a relative basis to where we were, rates are significantly higher, and they haven't come down, but the higher for longer dynamic

doesn't have to be awful for equities, and i think if you think about the market overall, and again, metrics that are at least worth comparing on a price to free cash flow, we're two standard deviations cheaper than where we were in 1999. i know, and we're going to hear more and more about this as we get into earnings season, the reality is that the tech sector is going to grow earnings 23%. energy is probably 13%. and then, you're going to have other big sectors that might even be negative. but if we're talking about the indexes and on some level the passive investor and the retail investor is not only invested across the s&p and the nasdaq, but, you know, effectively, the weightings that they have in many cases are in line with the index, and that's something that right now i think you have some room to run. it's the resiliency of the economy coming into this that everybody, i mean, you know, everybody is underestimated what the economy could do through this period of fed raising rates and it's not just because we came out of this period where there was a lot of savings. so, you know, we're mid-cycle at best. >> carter, let me turn back to you, and i think i'm going to

paraphrase you accurately. you seem to be heartened by the idea that the equal weight nasdaq 100 had gone to a significant level just today. you seem to be heartened by that. tell me why you're heartened by that, if i've got you right, and number two, what is the implication for the investor? in other words, where should they be putting incremental dollars now in light of what you seem to say is a broadening out of the market? >> tyler, no one's hearted me in a while. that was very nice of you to heart me. no, i know you said heartened. listen, i think, we were speaking of the semis not participating and yet the big five, apple, nasdaq, also making new highs, that the equal weight nasdaq is the whole issue is the equal weight s&p is still not at a new high. the russell is not. the new york stock exchange composite and many sectors, but within the most loved area of the market, there's even the

issue of a divergence between sort of the median stock, if you will, or average stock, and the aggregate, and so this week, at least, that most popular of areas of the market, the qqq, the nasdaq 100, it's equal weight things able to get above a high not seen since march, and again, we're now in july. to some extent, there's been a little bit of a broadening in that area of the market. heartening? i'm not sure. but it's -- i think it is the single most important development of the week because making a new high in something that is one man, one vote, each stock, 1%, is much harder to do when you have such incredible concentration at the top. >> right. all right. meanwhile, a new -- let's move on. a new read from charles schwab's trading activity index shows that retail investors expect volatility to increase in july. let's bring in charles schwab's joe mazzulla to discuss. welcome, joe. good to have you with us. investors are looking for more

volatility in july. it certainly has not, apparently, as you report, affected their appetite for equities. they're still buyers. >> yeah, it's an important point. and we're going to look at this from two different lenses. the behavioral and the attitudinal. the schwab trading activity index report that you're mentioning, that's behavioral. basically, you saw a lot of buying activity in june. a lot of it was concentrated in some of the a.i.-themed names that you guys were just mentioning. a lot of it, tech heavy. interestingly enough, tyler is that when they talk about the volatility, there's concern around some of the valuations in a.i. moving forward into july, and so, what we're hearing from our clients is that they're going to stay long. they're definitely more bullish than bearish, but they're moving a little bit more towards a neutral stance, and i think that makes sense. not just from a valuation standpoint but just from some of the other activity we've seen in the market as well, some of the

divergence that you were mentioning. >> am i right or am i not right that a lot of the money that you're seeing come inbound is still going into names that have a.i. attached to them? >> no, no, you're absolutely right. and i think that there -- there are some names that still present a little bit of value at that point, but i also think it's important, you know, one of the things that we have been talking about with investors is, you know, if you're going to look at some of those names, you know, what could be maybe an exit strategy or different way to maybe augment some of those returns? some of the things that we've been pointing out is just kind of looking from the options market, something like call sku, looking at some of the skus on some of these names are really, really elevated, meaning just something as simple as a covered call is a way to maybe, you know, soften some of that downside should you get a pullback or, you know, use it as a -- to reduce some of those shares if they continue to rally through earnings. i think that's important. and i think tech as a whole, when you're looking at earnings

in the next month or so, it's a big driver for the markets. >> tim, you want to jump in? >> thanks for joining us. >> yeah, real quick, joe. i guess my question for you is, here we are talking about call sku, et cetera. how about taking out protection on this market? and again, volatility that, to me, is risk adjusted returns. we were talking before you came on about the market and comparisons to 1999/2000. the reality is that risk ingested returns again are so much better today than they were back then, but the reality of geopolitics around the world and an election cycle here, that's something i'm hearing from clients. it's something that i think people are starting to feel like it's been a pretty good run. what are you seeing in terms of that interest in taking out protection, or how is it being carried out? >> yeah, i mean, you're still looking at a vix that is between 12 and 13, so we haven't seen a big push up in some of the downside hedging. but you have noticed a little bit of a rotation into maybe some of those sbx hedging

products just in the last couple weeks, just really starting to see, maybe, some of that activity pick up a little bit. i don't think enough to really move the needle. but it's absolutely something that i think investors should be looking at given the fact that, you know, we're up 15, 16% already in the s&p 500 this year. and if you kind of look forward on the vix curve, where are we predicting volatility? well, we're predicting volatility in october, and that makes sense, kind of given what's happened in the presidential race. some of that is starting to pull back a little bit, but i would say it's not just the presidential race. you need to really kind of keep an eye on what's happening in the legislative branches as well too, and from an investor perspective, if you get levels like this where protection is relatively cheap, it makes sense to take advantage of that. >> joe, thank you very much. wish you a happy good weekend. thanks a lot. >> thank you. >> joe mazzola from schwab. let's trade it, guys. mike, does anything come to mind here? wi w way to protect your downside or

what? >> tim was referencing 1999 a couple of times, and actually, this year probably feels most like that year compared to any other in my investment career, and of course, that could be used as a dirty word, i suppose, from an investor's perspective, but really, the market continued to rally until march of 2000. i expect that's likely what this one is going to do. one other quick point about volatility, and that is that when we did reach the market zenith from '99 into 2000, one of the interesting things we saw was that volatility, rather than continuing to fall, the vix continuing to drop, actually went the other way. when the market sort of reaches a limit, you start to see volatility tick up, and we're not seeing that, so i don't think there's a whole lot, really, to be concerned about here. selling calls when they're not that expensive, i mean, joe was just talking about some of the mega cap stocks that you might see some call sku. that might make sense in those names, but i generally think it would becheaper to buy the downside puts if hedging is what you're interested in. >> carter, you get the last word in this segment.

does a trade come to mind? >> just what we've heard. always, if you have the ability to have the stock called away from you for tax purposes, it's always a good technique to sell calls. it's as simple as that. people don't want to tax event, and then you have to roll it forward and there are other measures to take, but it is the single most sort of quiet way to have a bit of caution. >> all right. carter, gentlemen, thank you very much. we'll be back with you guys in just a second. meanwhile, coming up, macy's in the shop window. a pair of suitors upping their bid to take the retailer private. we'll go inside the numbers next. plus, novo nordisk shares jumping today even as its flagship drugs are tied to a rare eye disease. the implications for the obesity trade right after this. ♪ ♪ whasssssup. greetings happen. yeah, that's not good happens.

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welcome back to "fast money," everybody. macy's shares soaring today after "the wall street journal" reported the take-private offer

for the retailer has risen to a deal that would be valued at around $7 billion. this represents about a 26% premium over where macy's shares closed today, $19.64. that was a good year, 1964. tim, i can't really think of a time when macy's wasn't in play somehow. >> well, that's because the sum of the parts are something that have been interesting, whether it's been the real estate dynamic and if you look, also, just at how the company's been run. capital allocation has been very, i would say, efficient, very cautious. it's the kind of scenario that makes private equity very happy. they're talking about store closures, consolidation. they're talking about, from an operational perspective, what's made equity analysts and investors happy is not only a digital profile that's really continued to grow but also inventory management that's made efficiencies and gross margins very interesting. it's the kind of a story that it should not be a surprise that

there are people that recognize that there's intrinsic value here, and again, if you started to look at some of the bonds, you know, a some type of a leveraged buyout is something that's interesting. so, the market cap today on close is about $5.4 billion. $6.9 billion, as you noted, is kind of the bid out there. it's the second time they've raised the bid. it shows that macy's is in a different light than, possibly, even someone like nordstrom, and i think overall retail it's a very different story. i think this really is one of those cases of really idiosyncratic dynamics with macy's that make it attractive. >> quickly, is it -- how significant in a deal, if there is to be one, tim, would the real estate be? >> i think very significant. i think the assets here are part of what gives private equity a lot of comfort in looking at the balance sheet and where they have, again, pieces that add up to more than the whole. and again, it's a company that i think, two to three times

leverage, is still generating more than $500 million a year in free cash flow. >> mike, you noticed a fair amount of "options action" in macy's today. tell us what you saw. >> yeah, i mean, we saw about times, actually, the average daily call volume in this thing, and it was the '21 and 20 strike calls. the august 20s were trading for a little over $1.30 a contract. this was a company that ignoring all the takeover talk was forecast to generate about a billion dollars in free cash flow next year on a $10 billion enterprise value, so it is, you know, certainly within the realm of possibility that a company could pay more than that to acquire the company if they're generating that kind of cash. >> carter, any thoughts here on macy's? >> i thought the price action was sort of feeble, frankly, and didn't hold its gains, closed in the bottom half of the range on the day and nowhere near the prospective takeout price. this is a tough business. you're talking about a stock that's trading at the same level

it was 30 years ago, literally, in the summer of 1996. you know, and the market cap is like $5 billion. williams sonoma is $18 billion. they sell spatulas and blenders. what did macy's do wrong? >> that's a great point. i love that. carter, thanks. there's a lot more "fast" to come. here's what's coming up next. a new concern over potential side effects from novo nordisk's wegovy and ozempic. the skinny on what it means for big pharma next. plus, crude oil in cruise control. texas tea locking in four straight weeks of gains. and our next guest says beryl could wreak havoc on production and prices at the pump. you're watching "fast money" live from thnaaqart te tes square.si we're back right after this. n h. not a good spot. off the comcast business van.

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[ speaking minionese ] junior. [ laughter ] good job junior. way to go. [ speaking minionese ] welcome back to "fast money," everybody. shares of novo nordisk higher today, despite a new study from harvard linking ozempic and wegovy to a rare eye disease. the study, released on wednesday, found that patients

with type 2 diabetes are more likely to develop a condition that can cause blindness after being prescribed semaglutides. wall street, shaking off the concerns, deutsche bank analysts saying the quality of the evidence is "very low" and that the results will likely just result in an updated label on the drugs. mike, does this pose concerns for you? the stock, inching up higher today by 2%, despite this report from wednesday. >> not particularly. i mean, first of all, the issues of potential eye conditions that related to the use of these drugs has actually been known, i think, for well over a year, actually. and you know, beyond that, i think the operative word here is rare. also, understanding the condition, it's not necessarily causal, but just that there is some correlation for people affected with type ii diabetes, and take a look at the price action of the stock. i will say that both of these two, i'm talking about novo, the

adr, and lilly both had above average call volume today. it seems that investors had already digested this as a concern and are not that concerned about it. >> tim, any thoughts here? >> i tell you what, i don't know how many people i've stood next to at a barbecue eating a fatty piece of brisket that said, i'm taking a shot today or tomorrow for ozempic. that's really the story here. look at the week we had with the biden op-ed and the pushback on pricing, the, you know, the effect of medicare negotiations maybe going from 10 to 50. this has been a runaway train in terms of novo and lilly. you add in the fact that lilly also, earlier this week, had the news or their alzheimer's early stage, at least, approvals by the fda also had been expected. but if you look at the way these stocks are trading, they're actually significantly, i think, more defensive than many of the names that we talk about in the

a.i. space where there's a lot of comparisons. the one thing that, outside of valuation, that should have you concerned about both these names is the competitive landscape. right now, it is more or less a two-horse race with a lot of biotech around it that i do think is also going to continue to get absorbed. but i worry about competition. i worry less about the -- about the valuations right now, and i think the stocks reflect that. >> it's interesting, even though harvard researchers say that further research is needed to assess whether the semaglutide is not just merely correlated with the condition but caused. meantime, coming up, crude cruising to the tune of four straight weeks of gains, and with our next guest predicting a major hit in production, we'll dig in on what's next for prices at the pump. plus a bitcoin bummer. the cryptocurrency crashing to its lowest level in five months. we're going to take a closer

look at the washout and see whether the technicals point to any relief in sight right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money," everybody, stocks closing out the holiday-shortened week in the green. the dow gained about 65 points, earning its second positive week out of the past three. s&p 500 and the nasdaq both fresh record highs today as they each notch a four-day win streak. meanwhile, arm holdings popping nearly 8% and closing at its highest since going public last december. the stock up more than 140% this year. sharp reversal for first solar, erasing an early boost from a positive note from td cowen and finishing the day well in the red off about 4%. and finally, tesla shares revving up again. the ev maker now on an eight-day win streak, its longest since a 13-day heater that ended last june. the stock up nearly 40% in that period. here comes tesla, mike. out of nowhere.

>> i mean, this is a name that people often get concerned about on valuation, but i would just offer this, and that is that they're the only domestic auto maker making evs that does so profitably and they're the only ev play that is really an infrastructure play as well between the charging, the software, the self-driving. they basically have the whole thing wrapped up. if you want in the space, this is the name you have to be in. >> all righty. meanwhile, oil giving up early gains with brent and west texas closing at session lows, but crude still posting its fourth weekly gain in a row. wti hit its highest level since late april early in the session today, this as tropical storm beryl, downgraded from hurricane status, heads towards the gulf and the texas coast area, which is, of course, saturated with oil rigs, refiners like hess, murphy oil, bp putting out statements indicating they don't anticipate any impacts to their gulf of mexico operations.

denton is chief oil analyst at the oil price information service. where do you see -- denton, welcome, first of all. where do you see oil going? it has been moving higher as, i guess, summer demand pushes it there. where do you see gasoline bprics headed? >> i think gasoline prices are starting to creep higher, about $3.51 today, it's only about a penny cheaper than it was at this time last year. i think there's enough market momentum to push prices higher throughout the next couple of weeks, probably up to $3.60. i know earlier there were forecasts for $4. i don't see that happening unless we have something really go nuts, not just necessarily with tropical storm, which will, again, become hurricane beryl, but also more storm activity this summer. >> so, what happens after this little rise in, as you said, gasoline prices as we get deeper

into the summer driving season, and does seasonality cause oil and gas prices to drop back just a bit? >> once we get through july, mid-august, kids start going back to school. vacations are essentially over. then you start to see demand start to trickle a little bit lower. then, after labor day, it really reverses there. that's when you start to see gasoline prices really start to come down and really through the remainder of the year, october, november, december, towards the end of the year, give you some of your lowest prices of the year, which, lower prices also coincide with the certain early november event called the election. >> called the election. we're well aware of that, denton. let's bring in mike khouw for a question. >> yeah, denton, i don't know if you have the answer to this, but it's something that's piqued my curiosity. environmental regulations have sort of prompted the increase of turbo charged cars and those more often require premium fuels and we've seen the spread

between premium gasoline and 87 octane regular, basically, at all of the spot ports going higher. so, i was curious, do you have any ideas on a derivative play? that's mostly additive based, i think. are there refiners that are better positioned for that or are there suppliers that could benefit from that dynamic? >> the majors, they all have their proprietary additive packages, so whether that's bp, shell, chevron, they have their proprietary additive panel. they're all top-tier gasoline. that premium to regular spread gets pretty wide this time of year. but usually, the person who is required to drive -- to put premium in their car, usually, the price of gasoline does not impact them like other members of society. >> so, tim, as we show some of the stocks, the big oil companies, down today. the refiners, generally down. tim, jump in. >> yeah, denton, and i guess leading to that trade, which i'm quite bullish on the integrated

players, but to, you know, we're talking about supply. we're talking about hurricane season. we're talking about seasonal factors, but really, the demand side of this is a lot more interesting to me, and demand, based on what we've seen in terms of north america, is something that's actually been growing. you've seen wti prices up 13 or 14%. i don't think it's been the supply disruption story. can you speak to that? can you speak to global dynamics on demand? because also, as someone that's invested around the world, especially in emerging markets, aggregate demand continues to grow. and that's something that i think people forget about sometimes on this trade. >> yeah, absolutely. and tim, first off, love the ramones poster. >> right on. >> but again, a lot of this demand curve that we're talking about is in the developing nations. oecd nations, we're leveling off as far as, particularly, gasoline demand. in fact, i would make the strong argument that in the united states, gasoline demand is in the decline ever since 2019.

all the demand growth in gasoline is in more developing economies. jet fuel demand. we're seeing pretty strong jet fuel demand, vacation times, a lot of people choosing to fly versus drive. and then you'll see some people say, well, it's cheaper for me to drive, i'll take this road trip versus flying. but overall, i think we're in a good demand period for now. but usually, after the fourth of july, demand, like, tends to get really choppy, really lumpy, if you will. you'll see some really strong weeks here in the united states, and then you'll see some ones that make you shake your head. as someone who lives near the jersey shore, i'm like, i see millions of cars, i'm trying to get to the beach, and then you see a demand number like that, it makes no sense to me. but sometimes you guys aren't seeing everything around the world. >> getting lumpy. all right, denton, thank you very much. we appreciate it. let's trade -- you got it, man. carter, you've been taking profits in oil here? >> yeah, we put out a note this

morning saying the move over the last seven, eight weeks is enough to a difficult level where we would harvest. that was the title of the piece. but we like energy stocks. here's a well defined chart. i didn't make the line. the line makes itself. we're at a difficult level. whereas energy shares are still lagging, you've got year to date crude's up some 16%, energy stocks up 7. i think that's the play you want to be long energy shares, not the commodity. >> long the shares, not the crude. carter, thank you. all right, coming up, a big drop in bitcoin, more than $170 billion wiped out in the crypto market. the decade-old exchange collapse that is impacting the whole space and where bitcoin may be headed next. plus, we're back in the earnings game, and we're going to dig into two names with very different performances over the

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welcome back to "fast money," everybody. bitcoin hitting its lowest level

since late february today. dropping below $54,000 at its lows of the session. the digital currency tanking after the japanese bitcoin exchange that went bankrupt a decade ago said it's beginning to pay back creditors in bitcoin. that could result in nearly $9 billion worth of coins being dumped on to the market. the rival, ether, dropped about 5% itself. it has now lost more than a quarter of its value since hitting an all-time high in february. at one point today, $170 billion had been wiped out of the crypto market, but where are the coins going from here? let's check in with the chart master, carter. you've got a chart-a-palooza. >> there are three long-term charts and three short-term charts. before we look at that, weakness to take advantage of or weakness to stay away from? it's one or the other. let's figure it out together. this goes back to 2015, bitcoin at $200.

now let's annotate it. first chart, second chart. you can see the lines are well defined. you can call it an ascending triangle. you can call it whatever you want, but we know that we attempted to break out, third chart, and we didn't. now, the question is, do we drift back to the uptrend line? that's perfectly tolerable, normal, or is something worse afoot? let's go to the short-term charts and try to figure it out. here is just over the past two years, let's do the same thing. let's annotate it and put some lines in. those are mathematically parallel lines, tyler, and we're down to the lower band of this well defined channel from which we move $18,000 to almost 70. and so, my hunch here is that you buy this dip. it should be noted that since january of 2023 to present, we have had six 20%-plus selloffs. this one is 27%.

my hunch is it's weakness to take of, rather than weakness to stay away from. >> very interesting. those are really interesting, illustrative charts. mike, bitcoin is in your acronym. b.r.a.v.e. is the acronym. how are you feeling about bitcoin and what carter just said, that this is weakness to take advantage of? >> it's the first letter of the acronym, actually. this is a situation where we have excess supply or at least the fear of excess supply, and you know, in the short-term, that's what creates volatility for any asset, and that's what we're seeing here. the fact is that the amount of additional supply that we're talking about is, like the quantity of bitcoin itself, finite in nature, and therefore, i'm with carter. i don't know whether i had actually thought this was going to create the level of support. i actually thought there might be some short-term weakness that would push it a little bit further on that selling pressure, but i would be a buyer. >> all righty, folks. coming up, earnings season

right around the corner, gets under way soon. we're going to lay out how to trade some of the biggest names with options. the strategies ahead of those reports when "fast money" returns. [ navigation ] stay straight for the next 200 miles. ♪ hey, come on, come on ♪ ♪ do what you want ♪ ♪ what could go wrong? ♪ ♪ come on, come on, come on ♪ ♪ come on ♪ ♪ do what you want ♪ get into an audi and go your own way. ♪ do what you want, yeah ♪ ♪ come on ♪ find your way to exceptional offers during the summer of audi sales event at your local audi dealer.

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welcome back to "fast money," everybody. earnings season, right around the corner, believe it or not, with a number of big stocks kicking us off. consumer names, airlines, but it is the big banks that really get us going. wells fargo, jpmorgan, and citi all lower. is this a chance to buy these names ahead of results? we've got the options action on one of the big banks out there. and carter, what do the charts say first about jpm? >> that is the big one. and let's look at two charts, a very long-term chart and then a here and now chart. so, my own hunch is that you're not going to see a lot of action here, post-earnings. this goes back more than a decade where it begins the stock's internal trend line. obviously, it's been a great performer relative to the bkx of other peers. if you look at the here and now chart, second of two, we attempted to break out and we've

fallen back within the sort of what you would call the ascending triangle. my hunch is you see almost no movement over the last probably 20, 30 quarters. it's typically a 2% kind of thing. it's an important stock, but i don't think it will be an important event. >> very interesting. mike, what's the trade on jpmorgan that you see? >> yeah, well, i think carter's right. obviously, we have not seen these big moves, and the options market isn't really forecasting one either. i mean, this is a name that's only implying a move of about 3% or so by the end of next week. so, not something really big there. the stock has had, obviously, a very good year, up more than 20%, and it's outperformed most of its rivals and it is the best of breed, so i actually think that if you thought you wanted to play it to the long side, this would be the name to own. you could just buy some long dated calls. i was looking out to november, the 210s would cost just $7.50. and one other quick point i would like to make, which is that, you know, we were talking about covered calls before.

selling covered calls is a great strategy, generally, but it isn't usually going into earnings, even on those names that aren't implying big moves. you're not going to get a whole lot of money to do it. i think it's better to play from the long side if you're going to look at calls in a name like jpmorgan. >> tim, your thoughts on jpmorgan or the big banks generally? >> well, we just got some guidance from jpmorgan that their investment banking and their markets roouevenues are gg to be better. we know banks have a nice tailwind in terms of capital allocation and where they're at least able now from a regulatory perspective to be giving back in the form of dividends or buying back in the form of shares. jpmorgan certainly had a great run. citi bank is the one to own. it's the one to own on valuation. it's the one to own in terms of the delta, in terms of the quality of where they have come from and where i think they're going. and where i believe the year of efficiency at citi is on some level as powerful as it was for meta and a driver for shares. so, i like citi bank here.

i think the price to tangible book of, you know, 0.7-ish is something that's really attractive, significant lly cheaper than jpmorgan. i think at some point, you stay in the trade to get all-time highs. >> citi has not had a lot of love for a lot of the past decade and a half, but -- right? yeah. jpmorgan has gotten almost all the love. let's move on now to delta, out with earnings next week as well. that stock is down 14% since its mid-may highs. carter, what are the charts telling us? >> that's exactly right. let's look at them. four identical charts. down -- first chart has no lines, no drawings. second chart, just as you've said, tyler, the stock is down here 14%-plus just as it was about six months ago. let's put a channel in there and put this selloff into context. we're right down to the lower band of the channel. final chart of four. let's draw an arrow.

my thinking is, the stock is going to bounce here off the lower band. i'm a buyer. >> you're a buyer here. all right. mike, we got -- we lost you there for a second, but now you are back. what's the trade on delta, sir? >> yeah, i mean, sort of the same thing applies here in some respects to what we had in the jpmorgan trade. number one, delta, i think, is the best operator within the space we've seen, obviously, a lot of sort of not-so-great news coming out of the airlines and actually manufacturers as well lately, but i think this is one that you also want to play from the long side using call options, again going further out in time. i was just looking out to the long -- well, in this case, the august 46 calls, cost about $2.50, and once again, i think this is a way to basically play to the upside. this is a reasonable valuation. best operator in the space. and yeah. i think that's sort of the simple way to do it. >> tim, delta and the airlines?

>> delta's my favorite airline. a million miler too. but that's not important. the most important thing airline. that's not important, the most important thing is that it has left highest quality of client. the gross margins are five distant 10 points higher than the peers. you have to remember they are trading stocks. the best in the market in my view. delta is the perfect case in point, despite the high quality. it had 40 plus percent this year and the fullbacks on the road you could trade a little bit lower. we have gotten a lot of the information and you can stay long with delta. trading stock versus investing stock? >> is called dancing by the door. tell me what you're doing at home, and i'm not sure? maybe we could say that for another show? we will take a quick break and come back for your final trades of the week. a

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at amazon dot com. we have one minute left in the show and the means it is time for the final tray. we will start with you, carter. in the big winner up 31%, stick with it. >> stick with silver. mike, what do you say? >> i like the silver car. sometimes it can change things or wait for them to come to you. i will go with martin and this is coming in with one i like. >> you have a half minutes of fill with your pick. in >> we went to a party of this

tree, nice and lovely. we thank you and we love you. >> i will party with you. gdx, the original digital goal, the minors, go for. > eean interesting and good week. thanks for watching. in my mission is simple, to make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere and i'm here to help you find it. mad money starts now. >> i am kramer. i'm to make a little money for you. put everything in context call. investing is not easy but