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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  July 5, 2024 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT

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tree, nice and lovely. we thank you and we love you. >> i will party with you. gdx, the original digital goal, the minors, go for. > eean interesting and good week. thanks for watching. in my mission is simple, to make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere and i'm here to help you find it. mad money starts now. >> i am kramer. i'm to make a little money for you. put everything in context call. investing is not easy but it
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can be a whole lot easier and less daunting with a little instruction. the hope business of managing money for all the technology and authentic wall street gibberish you need to waive through to learn anything about a stock. if you not included in the jargon, these figures are in an entirely different language. they need you to be happily convinced that investing is too hard for you or ordinary people cannot do. the simplest way is to give your money to our program that is why i started this red one you joined the investing club, our goal is a show you you can do it yourself. if you put a little effort and do the homework, i think you could do as well as the pros or a low-cost index fund. a better comparison.
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it is full of people who are f your fees. if you are a hedge fund or a mutual fund raiser trying to fund raise, you have every incentive to keep regular people sadly ignorant. why would they make it sound successful, if it's too straightforward is hard to convince them to pay money. like the wizard of oz, they do not want you peeking at the man behind the curtain. if you did you would take control of your own finance and pick your own stocks and not pay someone exorbitant fees to do something you are capable of doing yourself. i know you can do it and that is where i come in. i am pulling back the curtain and explaining everything. the wall street gibberish can sound complex, even impenetrable, it is not rocket
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science or brain surgery. you do not need to work in an investment bank to understand. as long as you have a translator, a coach like me, who can explain what the darn words mean. think of me as someone who place for the other team. $5 million on already rich people's money who is playing for you. teach you to navigate your way through the stock market every week night here, mad money. forget about the da vinci code, forget enigma, to be a great investor you have to break the wall street code and i am here to help you crack it. i will give you the wall street gibberish to plain english dictionary. you must understand if you actively will manage your own stocks. words and concepts we do not want you to get your heads around, because you might
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actually feel empowered enough to pull your money out of their expensive mutual funds. hey, even if you are not a pro, you may not know enough so one not take advantage of 40 plus years of experience to give yourself a stretch. simply go and secular. you hear these all the time but no one but me explains what they mean, even though they are crucial when picking . cyclical has nothing to do with the spin cycle on your washing machine or wagner's brain cycle. as in about separation of church and state or parochial schools. we will crack that cyclical washing machine joke. cyclical needs a strong economy in order to grow. think of it as a cycle.
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any kind of raw materials plus industrials are cyclical. you want a bunch of copper and iron, that is the definition of cyclical. these companies are hostage to the economy. when they heat up they earn more money and are willing to pay more for those earning three when the economy slows down her shifts into recession mode, they earn a lot less money and investors pay less for shares. the cyclical is the boom and bust. secular growth company is whether earnings keep coming regardless of the economy's overall health. think of anything you eat, drink, brush your teeth with, or uses medication. proctor and gamble, general mills, pfizer or mark, these are the recession proof names that you want to buy when the economy slows down. investors flock to the
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companies that can generate consistent earnings unless the drugs actually take over the world. you do not stop eating food or brushing your teeth because we are in a recession. why is a secular versus cyclical so important? because a healthy figure out how much companies can earn in a given environment. the guys who have so much cash to throw around that they are buying and selling that defines a whole market in the short term. the whole hedge fund playbook is about when to buy and sell cyclical stocks or secular ones based on economies around the world. this is what drives the decision-making process. 50% came from the sector, which is a fancy word for energy, machinery, healthcare. when it comes to secular, much of the moves are about falling
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into the secular or cyclical hands. this is more than 50% thanks to the rise of secular. you do not want to own much in the way of cyclical. the earnings tend to fall apart as they have during every meaningful slowdown. including chinese slowdowns, there is nothing about that you can do. what do you do? i the same token, when business heats up the cyclicals are doing well, the food, the drugs, you will not make as much money on them during those periods. you have to accept that. you are not a traitor, except it. i was what cyclical stocks and secular stocks in your portfolio. when business is booming you want more cyclical exposure and when it's falling off a cliff,
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you want a lot more secular exposure. the bottom line, the best is not easy but it doesn't have to be mystified. you just need to learn the language. know the difference between cyclical and secular growers and all will state diversified. he met jim, thanks for taking my call. when building a balanced portfolio, is the 60/40 rule still fundamental and how much of the percentage should be in cash? >> i think we want to bet against it. don't bet against ourselves, that with ourselves. we are buying and keeping a lot of stock. when you are 60 or 70 i think that is young and you should have 70% stocks. that is higher than what i have usually said but i think you are not going to get the return from bonds that people want i would rather tickets are 30 or 20 depending how you feel about yourself and i want you to
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think about living long. joseph in florida. joseph? she hey, jim, how's it going? >> not bad, how about you? thank you for calling >> i am doing awesome, man. i wanted some insight on the five-to-nine plan. >> put it in a low fee s&p 500. i did that for my kids and they are internally grateful and you would do for yours, too. and not in new york, edna? >> hello mr. cramer. i'm a member of your investing club and want to thank you. my husband and i are active investors. >> how can i help? >> i rolled over and old ira employee account and have 20 or 30 years before i will need the
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funds. it's an a money market account earning 5%. would you recommend i put it in an investment alyssa >> i want you to take starting now, every month, take a 12th of that money and put it to work. don't other work at one level. if we have a really bad month, i want you to double down and put 166. when the third and fourth quarters, we will figure out whether you need more cash but that's how i want you to investor that is long-term money and i should be in stock, but over time, not all at once. it does not have to be mystifying, you need to learn the language. i am cranking out to help you navigate the market to take charge of your portfolio. that is what i want. stay with cramer.
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tonight i'm helping you learn about how earnings stocks from giving the freeze to navigate your world in investment. consider it the televised encyclopedia from tearing back the cloak of mystery that can make imagining your own money impossible. the stocks should not be
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difficult to give to bye-bye -- the way a lot of the pros talk about stocks, einstein would have a tough time figuring out what the heck they are saying. i explained there is companies like industrial smokestack businesses that need the economy to have earnings recycler growth is toothpaste. expending at the same pace regardless of where we are. do the reverse as a source of pick up steam. this is the playbook that the hedge funds use and they can often behave like will there be sentinels, they operate this way because the playbook works. the reason for that has to do with another piece of wall street gibberish that you absolutely must know if you will pick stocks by yourself. it is called the price to
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earnings multiple. or, p/a multiple. it's how we value stocks. when you're talking hedge funds, some are overvalued or undervalued. when you hear someone say that hep c is more expensive than coke, they do not meet it is cheap trading in the 50s while pepsi is in the triple digits. to make any kind of apples to apples comparison you need to step back. when you buy a stock you are actually buying, you're paying for a small piece of accompanies future earning streak. to value a stock you have to look at where it is training to the earnings per share. the eps, the basic algebra. any fourth grader should be able to do this, the share price, p, d, -- we do not care
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that coke stock will be at $55. we do not care that hep c might be $155. the multiple is the special sauce of evaluation. the main ingredient is gross. how much bigger the earnings will be next year than they were this year. the after that and the year after that, on and on. the stocks with higher growth -- the multiple is about what we are willing to pay for future earnings. if a fast growing stock sells for 25 times earnings, that does not make it more expensive lake pepsi at 20 times growing, here's where it gets -- these are not static for different
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markets people pay more or less for the same pay when they pay more we call that multiple extension. when they pay less it is called multiple contraction. two more terms that some more complicated than what they are. when interest rates and market -- guy rucker, we see multiples contract because everybody's future earnings are suddenly worth less by comparison. when you buy a stock you are making about that the e or the m part of the equation is going higher. what goes in the earnings? how do you make sure they are increasing and not about to collapse? when you hear people talking about a company's bottom line or the net income, they are only in the same things, earnings. that is the bottom line because it's a lot of figure in the company statement. think about the earnings to grow in the future, i'm always telling you to listen to -- we
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do that homework for you in the investment club. step one, get your head around future earnings trajectory, you need to look at the top line. another unnecessary wall street gibberish that is interchangeable with revenues or sales. they mean the same thing. you want a strong revenue it tells you there is demand for the company. this is key for most businesses to grow earnings long term. that's why it's important for smaller companies with fast- growing revenues. investors pay for accelerated revenue growth. sales are growing at a higher and higher rate. the more mature companies should be able to turn revenues and profits by cutting costs. be on the top line and bottom line, it is crucial to consider the gross margin which is in no way discussing -- it tells you what is left after subtracting
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the good soul from the sales. the key metric. to figure it out you need to consider competition. the cost of production and to do business in general. businesses like supermarkets have terrible margins while microsoft has margins that are obs in some industries it can margin widely. watch supply across the whole industry. too much oil pushes the price down. too much retail versus stores that discount goods aggressively to make space for new merchandise, both are merging killers. the bottom line, you need to know the vocabulary before evaluating a stock. when you're comparing look at the price to earnings multiple. or the p/a for the growth rate, the top line, the bottom line and the gross margins. in my some basic to many of you
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but i'm here to educate people and i do not want anybody china pick stocks without a firm understanding of the basics. another great reason to join this investing club. mad money is back after the break. happy birthday, max. yesss! i'm joan the phone, here to show you four easy ways to stay safe online.
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two tonight i will go into penn and teller mode. you hear gibberish constantly but my not understand. i will translate the most underused words. consider the show your wall street to english dictionary the televised glossary that will help you navigate through tough markets and terminology that q so many people out of stocks. not doing myself justice and i have to help you to understand this stuff so you can be better. of course during the club will help. all this investing from the analogy sounds difficult. people who speak gibberish fluently, they are the opposite of me and want you terrified to feel totally ignorant. at a complete loss when it comes to managing your money.
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my mission is the opposite of theirs. i am here to enlighten you, to teach because i know you can do better for yourself than the professionals. i have been here for 40 years and i know the separate most other fresheners want your fees. i'm not managing anyone else's money so i give away my winnings to charity. i walked through the process. the anti-establishment. i'm not coming to tell you which stocks i like because you cannot own them if you do not understand. knowing we own is a must if you do not have a good grasp of what you own and what your holdings are, you will have an idea what to do when the stocks turn against you. inevitably at some point they will, you cannot know when to hold them and fold them. unless you know what the heck it is that you are actually holding and what might make you
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fold. unfortunately, the terminology on wall street makes it harder to know what you want. let's continue the vocabulary lesson with an important piece of verbiage that is hardly ever explained to you even though it is used costly. risk and reward. this analysis pretty much defines short term stock prices. break it down into each component. assessing risk is about figuring out the downside. how much you can potentially stand on any given stock. how far it can fall in the future. the reward is figuring out the upside. how much this. rallied if everything goes right there too many investors focus on the potential upside when is a lasing -- analyzing stocks you need to understand the risk side. the pain from a big loss hurts a lot more than the pleasure of -- how exactly do we figure out the risk we were? these are two different things. they create the top.
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the downside is created by a value oriented money manager. what they would pay on the way down. they create the bottom. to figure out the risk you need to consider where the value guys struck down on the way down. you need to think about where the bullish of guys start selling on the way up. when they ask, i boil it down to something quick like five up and three down. how do you get there, how do you know when you're money managers will sell and value managers will buy? you need insight in to how they think. that's another wall street lingo called growth at a reasonable price. a.k.a., garp. it's not subjective, as a method of analyzing stocks. if you want to figure out the maximum that guys will pay for a stock you need to be able to
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look at the rule according to garp. you want to learn more from peter lynch, it's easy to go to amazon and buy one from amazon. here's a quick and dirty rule of thumb that is hardly ever let me down. there are exceptions, a rule that can help us figure out when a stock might be overvalued or undervalued based on what the value managers are willing to pay. it was lower than growth rate the stock is probably cheap. a multiple that is twice the size of the growth rate, probably too expensive. if it's 20 times the earnings, the growth rate of 10%, it probably does not have much more of an upside. it reached the growth ceiling. here's wall street gibberish that can help simplify, the price to earnings to growth rate.
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a peg of one or less is extremely cheap and two or higher is relatively expensive. a high octane superfast grower can be an expensive because at 40% plus long-term growth rate, with the pack of one at the cheap end of the spectrum. sending the stock to new heights. would we come up with these numbers? observation. value investors will be attracted to stocks where it's one or less. you can find a buyer for stocks -- buying high multiple stocks hardly pay more than twice the growth rate. a bag of two. there's virtually no way the stars go higher. when google held the mojo with the 30% long-term growth rate, it would've become a cell if treated 60 times earnings. that is too high as i have
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learned over and over again. with any of my methods or anyone else for that matter, this one is rough approximation. subjectivity. it is useful when you're trying to figure out the risk and reward. it's not always right and only applies to committees that trade on earnings not unprofitable companies. stocks will often get cheap on earnings based because it's too high. you see this all the time going into the slowdown. the stock could trade well below the growth floor. he could keep sinking and singing. the fact that it looks cheap is a value trap. on the other hand, the best time to buy cyclical stocks, is when multiples are outrageously expensive because the earnings are too low and need to be raised. that happens when the economy is bottoming and about to rebound. the bottom line, know what you own and what others will pay for. that means you need to
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understand the risk reward. the potential downside and potential upside before you purchase anything. by figuring out where the growth investors put in the ceiling and where the value investors create. the floor. nicholas in nevada. >> how is it going? this is nick from las vegas, nevada. i'm a college freshman in california trying to start my own investment management company. i'm looking for quick advice and personal advice on how to run that? >> you are young and you have to go with higher risk stocks. some smaller cap stocks or bio techs or companies on the ground floor of a. i do not want you to be loaded up of companies that are older because you have your whole life to make it back if they go away. a lot of the older viewers cannot afford that to happen. go with high risk, potentially high reward stocks trademark.
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>> i'm a happy club member. thank you for taking my call. i have a real estate question for you. higher interest rates make it more difficult for families to afford a new mortgage. what effect will this have containing single and multifamily units? >> i think they will be under pressure and it is natural that you asked that question. it's one of the reasons i'm not recommending those stocks because you thought about the nemesis of those particular stocks. as always you understand the risk/reward, the garp and peg ratio with picking stocks, you are better prepared to know what you own and what others more importantly will pay for. you know the difference between a rotation and a correction? i am not done cracking the wall street code. you will receive it when i open the dictionary.
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stay with cramer. business. it's not a nine-to-five proposition. it's all day and into the night. it's all the things that keep this world turning. it's the go-tos that keep us going. the places we cheer. trust. hang out. and check in. they all choose the advanced network solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. powering more businesses than anyone. powering possibilities.
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tony, its gone. no. how am i going to do this? welcome to the mdy mid-cap cup,
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two imagining your own money being less daunting when you have a translator. to help you with the terminology that experts use. that's why i have been giving you my wall street gibberish to english dictionary so you can see the understanding -- i have to get to the essentials of investing.
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that's what i do for a living. so far i have been explaining the complicated pieces of jargon that are pretty simple. things we do every day. the difficulty that goes into direction just like many concepts that seem misleading, there are terms much less simple than they appear. trade versions -- they are distinct in the immortal words of the 1990s stuck risk. you have to keep them separate. isn't this fleeting? isn't it cause a tree? a trait is not the same as an investment. if you treat one like the others, for easy turn a trade into investment, you're breaking my first commandment of trading, the best of the rockies, rocky three, pain. when you buy a stock you are
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buying for a future event you think will drive the stock higher. maybe the company is about to report orderly results and you think it will have better than expected numbers. there is too much chaos and confusion which can cause the stock to get clobbered the callous could be news about a company getting fda approval for a new drug or a clinical trial that was positive, when you make a trade going into it you know there is a moment to buy before the cows. sometimes trades will not work out. maybe the data point is more positive than expected. it has a limited shelf life. once the window passes you must sell. hopefully it will turn out to be the right catalyst and if it
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happens no point to stick around. luck in your profits before they evaporate. if it's wrong, you still need to sell. think about this, when you buy a bottle of milk you do not drink after expiration, you throw it away. the logic for trading is similar. you cannot buy more and as -- with all the catalyst you have no reason to own the stock and you never should own anything without a reason. i have watched people lose money by coming up with alibis for staying in a stock long after expiration day. they are fooling themselves to do the right thing and more often than not they get crusher without the catalyst you do not have a trade. if you find yourself in the position you better sell and cut your losses. no catalyst, no point. an investment, is based on a long-term piece. the idea that a stock has a
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potential thank is serious money over an extended period of time. you are not just banking on one specific catalyst, you are expecting many good things will happen for the company said that's not an excuse to buy a stock and forget about it. investments can go wrong, too. this is why i am always telling you to keep examining your stocks if you buy them. oh course, we help with homework in the investment club. if it's a stock you like when it goes down short-term, it makes sense to buy more when the investments are sung. you do not sell the first time they jump at price frigid looking for the larger gains and what you do is measure it not in terms of trade and sell, but a longer period of time. that is what we do at the investment club. bottom line, not all wall street gibberish is complicated. some is simple, like a trade and investment.
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they are not the same. it's a big mistake to turn a trade based on the catalyst whether successful or unsuccessful. a long-term bet on the future of the business. man money will be back in a moment.
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be welcome back to wall street -- i have been explaining the
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investing concepts is financial jargon. they help you become a better investor. what else do you need to know? here's one of the euphemisms, the correction. it gets crushed. they could climb is much as 10%. it makes you feel like the sky is falling and you never want to own another stock in your life. that is the wrong reaction. you can come back from corrections. they bounce back from big declines all the time associate coming off the major run, higher. when the market goes on a 56 game had a shake like joe dimaggio, that does not mean you will not make money again. it does not mean your holdings will be pulverized. it is what happens when it goes up too far and too fast. corrections can happen during the index and the whole market.
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they can have the bonds that started in 2022. you never see these corrections coming so you should not beat yourself up for not anticipating. this is a natural feature of the landscape. we do need to acknowledge that they will happen no matter what. you should not get flustered or panic when they smack you in the face. another piece of o'campo, execution. we talk about execution management's of quality with plans for when you own a stock there are risks associated with execution. mergers, failed product launches, number of ways the management team can screw up. that's one of the reasons why i like companies with proven management teams because they are much likely to make these unforced errors. this is why it's so important
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to pay attention when i bring ceos on the show. since you probably cannot get them on the phone yourself, you want to hear what they have to say about the business firsthand on the show. the notion of execution is crucial when it comes to understanding why it is worth paying up for the best of breed coming straight top players in any given industry almost always come with proven executives. they are worth the price. a good management team is less likely to make mistakes and more importantly less likely to get buried by big problems. one last piece of wall street gibberish, the dreaded rotation. that's what money flows out of one sector to another. or when a group into another big group like a cyclical to secular rotation for the kind you get angela cyclical goes out of style.
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you will pick your own stocks, something in regards being the height of idiocy because you not able to beat the market so they sell you sure. if you hold out long enough you will make money. this is a brain-dead philosophy that i spend time to debunk to you. it refuses the die even though it's been discredited by the markets performance. that does not mean you should play the rotation game on the group that is in style. remember the need for diversification. simply means to make sure you have -- do not have your eggs in one basket. no more than 20% of portfolios in a senior -- single sector. to make you money. bottom line,
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do not be afraid of rotations. do not be intimidated by those who use the words. even though it's hard to quantify, execution as a factor to pick stocks. you want companies that are proven, season, that are less likely to drop the ball. stick with cramer. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools, like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis, help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley with powerful, easy-to-use tools,
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power e*trade makes complex trading easier. react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity. e*trade from morgan stanley happy birthday, max. yesss! i'm joan the phone, here to show you four easy ways to stay safe online. ♪come on!♪ ♪we can secure our world!♪ ♪online security depends on you and me.♪
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♪install updates,♪ ♪make better passwords,♪ ♪think before you click,♪ ♪use multiple factors.♪ ♪that's how we can secure our world!♪ learn more at cisa.gov/secureourworld doors take us places. so you bought a place. to new adventures. -oh. mwah. -planned... -and unplanned. -surprise! -they lead to goals. -for you, mama. and connect us to family. i didn't get the part. your dedicated fidelity advisor can help you open those doors. but i did get waiter number 2. because they know you. they can help you create a comprehensive plan for your full financial picture and personalized money management with the right balance of risk and reward. doors were meant to be opened.
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two i always say my favorite
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part of this show is my questions from you. i will bring mark, my partner in crime. for those of you who are part of the investment club, you do not need an introduction. for those of you who are not members, i hope you will be soon. i will say the back and forth help me to do a better job for you. please, i want you to join the club. we are covering all grounds answering some of your questions. let's take us. andrew in new jersey. >> hello, jim. mr. cramer. how are you doing? >> not bad. how are you? >> i am doing pretty good. i'm a 66-year-old guy, i'm all about dividends. in this cash environment right now, i have moreover requested that i question. i was wondering if at times you could do more of a contrasting
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if you acknowledge more often which companies, which investments, have the favorable 20% capitol gains rate versus the income tax brackets that range from 25 to 37%. part two of my question, extra credit, at the end of the year approaches and we do tax harvesting of losses for tax purposes, would you go so far to say that this stock i'm recommending to hold their places maybe you want to harvest the loss and buy it back in 30 days? >> these, my first book i
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wrote, do not fear the taxman. what matters are the quality of the stocks. i would not ever sell a stock if i thought it would be great for a wash sale. again, if i thought it would be great. i really do not want to sell stock based on being long-term or short-term. we are investors and we are investing for long-term. if a company does poorly we sell it. if it's doing well we do not touch her. >> all of our capitol gains and dividend income each year gets donated to charity. if you have a specific tax question seek a tax advisor to give you the best advice. we are very focused on how stocks are performing. >> why don't we go to kevin. >> thank you for helping
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millions of people though themselves and to a better msm. you are single-handedly responsible for encouraging millions of markets to get into the stock market who otherwise would not have. myself, and glitter. thank you. i appreciate everything you do for all of us regular people. quick question, my charts have three tools. price, volume, and on balance volume. i'm sitting on a few tens and 130. if you had to choose only one tool on your chart other than price and volume, which one would it be? >> this is terrific. what i would check is to see the oversold and overbought. is it too far up? i use the same thing for stocks. i wish we had an oscillator for the stock exchange. i wish we had an oscillator for
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sample stocks, that's what i would look at. >> i'm not a technician so it is harder for me to say. moving averages is something that technicians often quote. >> let's go through emails. let's start with diane in ohio. she asked, i am trying to grow a company at this stage of not owning as much desire. how do you balance? put a small position, if it jumps up you sell. you missed it, you did not get it, that is okay. otherwise, you build on the way down in pyramid style. you will have a better basis provided the thesis is to read. that is what matters. >> because it is a smaller position does not mean you should be greedy if the stock has had a huge run.
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we also do not want to chase stocks because it is small. just start dying because you think it may go higher. discipline always comes back. >> i hate having to wait. i hate having to build a pyramid. it does not matter, as not a game of emotions. it's pure analysis and it worked. chris in illinois. how do you address the weighting of different sectors in diversified portfolio? do you specify based on macro trends.? what we do is go for good companies. if they are good we do not care about the sector. we do not want all semi conductors but we are about finding the right stocks. that is not the way we think of things to >> where diversified but if there is a mega theme we like whether it be electrification,
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clean energy, infrastructure, we are not opposed to investing more heavily in assays because these are multiyear trends that are seeing a huge flow of investments. >> that's why you come to the club. we are unconventional. i am jim right now, magnificent seven stocks are making all- time highs. before you get excited there something you should know. the analyst is make the rare call nvidia. he joins us to make his case. is up it gets prays for being a miracle drug but in new potential side effects maybe too scary to stomach. all that and more over the next hour. belly up and buckle up. last call is up right now.

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