megacaps, your microsofts, your amazons. nvidia, certainly, but also smaller, but still quite large enterprise software names like a service servicenow. do you try to time the market and win against them? >> we'll have to see. in the meantime, you have such lofty expectations for q-2 earnings. we'll be watching that, as well. that does it for "overtime." >> “fast money” starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. burrito bummer. shares of chipotle getting rocked since its 50 for 1 stock split. others getting hit. will this struggle ripple through to other consumer stocks? plus, fighting back. president biden vowing not to step down, and step aside as a candidate. what do wall street and washington think about the president's forceful push back against his critics? and later, cocktails in a

can. take you inside the battle for shelf space that's brewing between the beer giants and the ready to drink distillers. no, tim, we're not talking bartels and james. >> thank goodness. >> i'm melissa lee coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. and we start off with the fast food implosion. shares of chipotle down 5% today, hitting their lowest level since late april. the stock down 15 pr% from its all-time high just a week ago. but it's not the only restaurant stock struggling. starbucks resuming its down trend, down nine of the last ten days, and 11 of the last 13. wendy's is trading at levels not seen since may 2022. and even mcdonald's is down more than 15% this year. nonfood stocks like etsy, nike, wynn also well in the red today. so, weakness being felt across the consumer spectrum. could there be a reckoning in the broader market?

tim, what do you think? >> well, the broader market may be okay, because the math doesn't really add up in favor of a lot of these stocks. if you think about what's being driving the zes&p, and the rall that resumed today in semis, you know, returned to glory, they have returned to glory, but back to mcdonald's, we've been telling this tale for a long time. we lined guy up to eat from three different value meals -- >> that didn't end well. >> we don't know what the end of that story was at home. but we know that we have heard from mcdonald's, we've heard from wendy's, we've heard from every fast food and even fast casual, and when you have a valuation like the one that chipotle has, i recognize, this is a story that really has connected in every place you are supposed to have over the last three years, whether it's loyalty, digital, their expansion, international, it's a dynamic where, yeah, i get it. they have really delivered, and i think -- that's fine. but at some point, i think the consumer has run out of gas and we are still getting hit.

inflation may be fine on the headline, certainly what we're seeing year over year on cpi, maybe even pce is getting down to the fed's target, it's not abating right now across the consumer. so, whether it's starbucks, you look at pepsi, general mills, you get more of the staply part of it, and i tell you what, i think there's a lot of, you know, i think there's a lot of window dressing in consumer discretionary, especially around that etf that has mostly amazon and tesla in it. i think discretionary continues to go lower, and i think the valuations for those that were expensive and paid up for it can go a lot lower. >> cumulative effect of inflation is hurting people, without question. mcdonald's is actually trading right around the low we made in october of last year, and that's when the market was bottoming out. mcdonald's has not traded well. if you listen to the cfo, they basically told you that people were feeling the pinch in terms of cost. no doubt about it. auto loan delinquencies -- auto

loans transferring into delinquency status at 13-year highs. all kinds of consumer credit reports this week. i think the consumer is strapped, and they've been trying to combat inflation with credit. and that just doesn't end well, mel. >> we've been hearing it outside fast food, as well. and the full spectrum in terms of the kind of consumers that these outlets cater to, whether it be the dollar tree stores or the dollar stores, and, like, a mcdonald's, all the way on up to a nike and a lulu, it hits every price point. >> yeah, it does. though just to go back to chipotle for a second, there was a gigantic run in the stock -- >> right. >> on the announcement of the earnings and the stock split. so, i think it's just retracing that a little bit. not very much, actually. this is a bad move for chipotle, but they've seen these kind of drawdowns a number of times. guy would probably recite it by memory how many times they've done this. but to your point, it is sort of concerning. i would rather have them trading down into earnings than up,

because tim brought up last week, the banks are trading very nicely into earnings and i really don't love that setup. >> yeah, i mean, tim mentioned the structure of the markets is such that these stocks can trade lower and we can be fine, but to the extent that the consumer spending makes up a big part of the economy, at some point, should we be concerned at some point? >> i think it's fair to look at, you know, these different reports that have been coming in, and i agree with a lot of what's been saying, guy's point on the cumulative effects of inflation. and you're seeing pressure, if you look across income brackets and things like hotel searches. if you look at grocery spend, it's not just one cohort that's getting hit here. i think at the end of the day, based on the data i'm saying, the consumer still has some buffers, but i think they're tired of using them. the capacity is just not there. and feels like certain lines are crossed. consumers are mad. >> at what point is the mathematical sort of structure of the market overridden by the fact that consumers are slowing

down? >> i think we're a ways away from that, actually. we had this payroll number on friday, when most people were at the beach, we were here on "fast money," and we talked about it, be careful what you wish for. the fed has this dual mandate, i'm not sure they will. and i think inflation will stay elevated. and that will continue to push down the consumer and eventually the market. we haven't had the growth scare, because right now, this is still full employment, and employment says the consumer's got a job and can pay their bills. they're reallocating to different parts. so, there are some big, big winners in here. we know walmart's been a big winner. tjx has been a big winner. and those are places where i think you can see outsized gains and some of those places can continue to outperform. especially when the reason they've been so successful is everything we've said. >> the federal reserve wanted

the unemployment rate to go up, they'll never admit that, maybe they have in quasi-language. but the question is, can they stop it from going up to a meaningful level? i don't think they necessarily can. and if you look at the revisions, i think 13 of the last 15 months, revisions have been negative, and at some point, this all filters in. and if you ever want just proof positive, the economy and the stock market, we all know are two different things, but never before, at least in all the years we've been together this, have been so wide apart. and just look at the president's approval rating when it comes to the economy, it's at record lows with the stock market at record highs. >> i just want to add on tim's point on walmart, costco, too. if you are delivering to the consumer, if they feel like they're getting value, or, if you have merchandise they really want, like an on or a hoka, versus a nike, i am long nike, which is not fun, then they're still there. that consumer is still there. >> yeah. should the premium be paid for those names or do you go into the lower multiple that is not -- that's a hope story, right?

that's a hope for a turnaround at some point. >> market's a discounting mechanism. nike key-- they are a bad day a from being covid lows. this is the premiere brand inat leisure, in footwear, at least in the sporting world. so, i think you're going to get opportunities. i don't think we're there yet. we had a once in a lifetime generational pull forward in some of these places. we had a consumer that didn't have any bills to pay for awhile, they were getting checks from the government. there was a dynamic where we saw the spend. we had the margin expansion that comes with a.i., that comes with a lot of the technology improvements, the digital, the dtc. these are all things that are great for apparel and retailers and places that have outperformed. multiples doesn't even get that lofty, because, again, they became more profitable. but i think you have a ways to go here. i -- unfortunately, i think the winners are ones you can stay in and i wouldn't run too far away from walmart here. but i think names like nike, lulu, mcdonald's, i want to buy them soon, but it's not here.

>> name that was mentioned on the call, we've talked about it on this show. look at the last two years of tjx. stock has probably doubled. there's something clearly going on at tjx. and i think that speaks to all the things we spent the last 7 1/2 minutes talking about. the tradedown, and who is winning and who is losing. tjx wins, walmart wins. and some of the others, middle people, like a target, for example, they do not win, and i think it all speaks to the strapped consumer, not the healthy consumer. >> is starbucks a turnaround to buy? >> it hasn't been for me yet. i'd rather be in tjx -- i just self -- >> double standards on this desk. >> as there should be. as there should be. the starbucks situation -- i don't know they've righted the ship, and i do feel like they are in the crosshairs of that consumer who feels like, wow, i'm really getting priced out of my daily coffee. that's not a great position to be in. >> meantime, amidst all these

concerns, rbc capital upped their year-end price target to 5,700. you say it's a nervous raise? >> yeah, look, we got to the middle of the year, we try to regularly update theed model. looking into the back half of the year, i said, just replace the 12-month back test with six-month studies. i think we're in a market where visibility is just more limited is less than it used to be. we kind of looked really hard at the data. we looked at how markets perform on the second half of a presidential election year. and we found there's a case for about a 4% to 6% type gain from the midpoint of the year. other models that we have, our valuation model in particular, makes me nervous. it looks like the market's baking into me at least three rate cuts, maybe more. i don't necessarily think that's realistic, so -- look, we felt like we were struggling with the

market in certain respects, but we felt like other data points were telling us we could go further. 5,700 is not that far. so, we told people, get ready for some potholes. we all live in new york city, they are unpleasant when you go through them. we think we're probably confronting something maybe a little bit worse than what we saw in april, but ultimately, we do think there's a path higher into next year and we do think markets can power through that. >> you mentioned presidential election cycle, and so, does it matter who is in -- i mean, there are certain contours in terms of divided congress, president, et cetera. >> so, it's interesting. i would say the scenario, if you look at a republican sweep, and this is not so much looking for this year, but looking -- your typical year in different power dynamics, your probest scenarios are typically democratic president and a split congress, your average return is 16%, or a republican-led government on all three branches, that gets you about 13%. so, if you think those are kind of two scenarios, potentially on the table, maybe people are learning more to the republican sweep right now, you know, it can get you, you know, feeling a

little bit better longer term. i do think when i've looked back over the history of how markets trade in the second half of presidential election years, the key thing is to get resolution. to get past the event and to have a clear winner and not be fighting about who actually the winner is. you can count the votes for a couple of daves, but if you look back in 2000, when the case was kicked up to the supreme court, we did not get our typical late-year post-election pop. if you look at 2016 and 2020, markets traded pretty similarly, cal calendar-wise, in terms of selling off early in the year, rebounding, and then having the post-election pop. that's what we're looking for, if we just get a clear answer. >> so, it's great having you on the desk all the time, particularly great when you can come on and say, we've raised our target by 8.5%. help the viewer understand, because you said nervous bulls, i think there's a lot of never vous nervous bulls in this market. this may be the greatest bull market of all time, if you tgo back to october of '22, certainly of '23 when we moved

30%. but how did you come up with that number? how do you get 400 s&p points on a 53 to 57? >> it's a great question. and people who follow our research regularly know we're all about the math and data. and we also really try to stress -- there is always this constant debate about, you know, kind of how do you use strategist targets, and what does it mean when somebody raises the number of cuts? these things are a compass, not a gps. they're a rough guide. strategists, i've been doing this over 20 years, strategists have different approaches to how they do it, so, that's the first thing to understand. my particular methodology is to look at different at the times a tests and take the median. my low valuation model which has me nervous. frankly, it tells me the market is overvalued after, for the past year and a half, telling me it was undervalued. that is pointing me to 52, 53 and the s&p. other models, my cross asset model in particular, the political test i just mentioned,

the sentiment indicator, that are getting me to 5,700 to over 5,800. we have an economic test which is in the 5,300, 5,400 range. we take the median, i took the median, which is the sentiment test. the average is 5,600. we've been very honest with people and said, any of those is a reasonable outcome. where i'm struggling with a lot is the sentiment, because my indicator has been one of the best stars in the sky to navigate the market with over the last year and a half and it's just hovering under one standard deviation. every week, i update, it doesn't go over. i finally got to a point where i just couldn't sit around and wait for that to happen. it's hovering right below. and right below, 4.5% is your typical six-month return. if we get over that one standard deviation, it's going to kick me into a flat market. we're waiting for that to happen. but we can't sit around and let

our target languish. >> and i'll just sort of say, theictates the number. a lot of people pick a number, i want my target to be 6,000 and they do the math that's required to get there, so, the intellectual honestly y and the work you do is great. but to tim's point, valuation at a certain point, they sort of matter. the trailing pe right now for the s&p 500 is 26 1/2, just for reference, a five-year average is 23.4. the ten-year is 21 1/2. and forward right now is about 21.3. again, ten-year average is just sort of 18. and that's with rates where they are now, so -- again, you don't trade on valuation, but the market is definitely expensive historically. meantime, a megareversal in shares of meta today. the social media giant hitting a new all-time high this morning, but gave it back, dropping almost 2% to end the day. guy flagged the move, karen also noticed? is a major holding of yours. >> this is my biggest position.

so, it hit an all-time high on friday, i would much rather it went from thursday's 509 to today's 529 than this up ten and then down ten, i mean, it feels like that was just some bit of a top, i'm not going to change my position on it, but that did feel kind of toppy. >> it was heavier than average volume, more than, you know, double -- >> yeah. >> but -- >> i think the low of the day was 526, it closed at 529. it's how it gets there. that's what's interesting. go back to june 20th with nvidia, which, by the way, though it's rallied off that 119 low, it hasn't gotten to $140. and today, in facebook, you're seeing the same type of activity, so -- you can trade sideways for a period of time, but you absolutely have to flag a day like today when you see price action like that. >> broadcom, too. >> yes. >> has not reached that level yet. >> just -- as much as we

marvelled at nvidia, you have to marvel at this move in meta, basically from jan of '23. this is a four to five-bagger, and it's extraordinary. and really, it's -- they've benefited from two or three important themes and secular investment trends. they were big beneficiaries, they coined the phrase the year of efficiency. this was a company, we always knew that, what percentage of the world's population is on some type of a meta platform? >> what's the population, 9 billion? >> i think it's a little less, but i think it's like 35% of the world -- >> so, there are those that always felt that if they just focused on free cash flow, we don't even need growth. this is a company that was ridiculously cheap and at its low, it was trading around 12, 13 times. maybe not even including the cash, right? >> right. that was absurd. it's a five-bagger, but never should have been that one bag.

it's still not expensive here. >> and they've really been onboard for one of the first few that really -- that's not an nvidia that's actually benefiting from a.i. so, the question is, the valuation is not expensive, but after this kind of a move, it's not just because it's moved $400 a share from that point, but you have really priced in a lot of stuff. can the next two years be close to this? i doubt it. they don't have to be, for karen, i'm sure, to be a very happy shareholder. i bet you probably prefer to see some of the volatility calm down and slow and steady wins the race. >> yes, i'm a tortoise. >> i didn't call you that. >> i've been called worse. it's all right. coming up, intel's big day. the long lagging semi getting a big bump today. what analysts have to say that will drive a comeback. plus, the fourth of july weekend may be over, but the tsa is reporting some fireworks of their own. what a record-setting weekend for travel means for the airline stocks. don't go anywhere. "ft ne iba itwasmoy"s ckn o.

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can buy one unlimited line and get one free for a year. get the fastest connection to paris with xfinity. welcome back to "fast money." intel topping the tape today, soaring 6% after it was named a top pick for the second half of the year. the a.i. road map doesn't get enough respect, and sees shares

climbing to $37. even with today's gains, intel is down 33% in 2024. so, is it worth jumping in? is it one of these stocks where you're thinking a turnaround is around the corner, which we've been thinking for quite some time, tim. >> no, the turnaround is not around the corner. and we've gotten a little bit of insight into the product map, and i don't think sierra forest is -- which is now coming to the market, is probably a year behind amd. i think there's some things about intel that are overlooked, which is that they've done a remarkable job, yeah, i said remarkable, on their capital markets dynamics. so, between 10 billion euro subsidies in germany, $8.5 billion here in the u.s. they sold ireland stake to apollo. their brookfield jv in arizona, they collected $12 billion on. they're not going to sink the company capex wise from an enormous bujtd that certainly is required here to build out foundry. i think they're going to be there. i think they're going to be there at some point. this is the case, the valuation

is not the reason you chase it. it's a company that has to be there strategically. and i think while you really just go back to the here and the now and where they are competing on pc and data center, and, you know, pc, you assume they're going to be okay in a refresh cycle, and that will pleasantly surprise. data center, they continue to lose ground to amd. >> the theme to the note is time to dust off the a.i. laggard. the thinking is that in the second half of last year, we saw all the laggards have massive runs, including intel, dell, ibm, to name a few. so, are we, you know, primed for sort of a repeat of last year, when we go back to the ones that have underperformed, especially since, you know, we heard about all the cap ex expansion. so, what else is there for the primary a.i. plays? that catalyst won't exist in the second half. >> could absolutely work. and ben does amazing woshrk. if he says 37, i'll sail he's right, he's probably undershooting it a little bit. i mean, stock's go from $33 to

$37 seemingly in hours these days. with that said, i mean, just for context, and i'm not comparing the ability of intel to compete with an nvidia, but intel's going to do $62 billion of revenue next year, trades about $145 billion market cap. i mean, just for perspective, i mean, that's historically where these things trade at. 16 1/2 times next year's numbers. by the way, if carter were here, he would point out, probably seeing a bearish to bullish reversal that started in middle of may, and now the turn is in, so, this thing could sort of levitate and be trading 37 by the end of the month. >> i do think dell's a little bit different, though. it's not like it was just a laggard and people thought, oh, it's cheap, we'll try that. they put up numbers that were wildly higher than where the street was. and, so, i don't put that sort of in the same bucket, though i do think that people are looking for anywhere that has a lower multiple, just find me a lower multiple, and hardware company, like dell, does have a lower

multiple. there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. a record-setting travel day as millions make their way home from the long holiday weekend. the impact on airlines, and the latest headlines on boeing. all that next. plus, tpresidential pressur building up, as more in washington call for president biden to step aside. the latest from capitol hill and what it could all mean for the markets and the economy. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. at pgim, finding opportunity in fixed income today, helps secure tomorrow. our time-tested fixed income suite, backed by over 145 years of risk experience, helps investors meet their goals. pgim investments. shaping tomorrow today. my name is caron and i'm from brooklyn. i work for the city of new york as a police administrator.

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welcome back to "fast money." the tsa seeing their own fireworks after this holiday weekend. a record number of flyers were screened yesterday, and with millions more still making their way home, the numbers keep growing. phil lebeau has all the details. hey, phil. >> melissa, if you were flying yesterday, and, yes, i was one of those people who was in an airport and it was packed, it was a record day. more than 3 million people were screened by the tsa. that is the first day ever we've seen more than 3 million people

screened in a single day by the tsa, compare that with last year, the same date, it's a 14% increase. so, when you look at the passenger levels, we've talked about this for some time. we've seen a steady increase. last year was a record at 2.34 million on a daily basis. in june -- i should say, in july, the average daily level, 2.6 million. so, it continues to grow, and that will be the case this summer. so, you think this is good news for the airlines, right? eh, no. take a look at the airline index versus the s&p 500. no comparison at all. you have a number of things that are weighing on the stocks. low fares are really limiting their ability to gain here. you have overcapacity in certain markets. a number of individual airlines have their own individual problems that are hurting their profitability levels. delta is the exception. we talked about this for some time. it is the king of the hill in terms of profitability for the

north american airlines. we'll find out what they did when they report their q-2 results on thursday. q-2 on thursday morning. and right after the results come out, you don't want to miss what ed bastian has to say. we'll be talking to him. we'll be at the delta headquarters in atlanta to get his perspective, not just on the rest of this summer, but then this question that is looming over the airline stocks, post-labor day, there's some capacity that needs to come out of the system. we heard this before. will they take it out of the system? there are certain markets where it's completely oversaturated, completely ridiculous, and we'll see if the industry can get some discipline. >> phil, we have to ask you about boeing pleading guilty to, you know, in connection to the two fatal crashes? >> right. and this is a felony charge that they are going to be pleading guilty to. the agreement with the doj is that they are pleading guilty to conspiracy to defraud the federal government. they are agreeing to pay $243.6

million as part of a fine and put an additional $455 million aside to invest in safety and compliance programs. by the way, there will be court-appointed outside corporate monitor who will be put in place to monitor that they do what they're supposed to do over the next three years. that's part of the plea agreement with the doj, as you look at shares of boeing. lot a little bit of a move higher today, melissa. i think that's because people are saying, maybe we're seeing the bottom being built here, as they knock off, you know, knock down the hurdles that are out there first. it was the spirit aerosystems deal, now it's the doj agreement, next will be the ceo search. and then, ultimately, the question is, can they grow 737 max production? >> all right, phil, thank you. phil lebeau. >> you bet. >> you would think that it would be a great time for the airline stocks right now, tim. >> well, it had been. >> right. >> it had been a 65% move off of

the recent cycle lows for delta and some of this is a function of just normalizing post-covid, and dynamics. and if you look at where some of these stocks at least traded both on multiple and in dollar prices, you look at delta, it was a $60 to $65 stock p pre-covid. i think they have the ability to continue to trade higher on that. phil nailed what's always the issue for airlines, which is efficiency and capacity and where they get a little either lazy or greedy or whatever, but the analyst community always assumes that's just around the corner. i think you could get delta a little lower here. >> yeah, with the airlines from a macro perspective, it's a great little microcosm of what's going on in the heads of corporate customers as and consumers. even with the recent declines in airlines, so, this index is down versus last year, it's still up 16% versus 2019. >> wow. >> so, when we talk about the consumer being ticked off about inflation and pushing back and

hitting breaking points, this is one place it can potentially happen. i wonder what the stocks are sniffing out about that behavior. i think about the financial services and other kinds of companies i've been reading the last few months, and they're talking about it taking longer to close deal times. i don't get so excited about the corporate outlook there, either. coming up, pressure building on biden, as the president defends himself against calls to step aside. the concerns out of d.c. and the impact on the entire election could have on the markets. that's ahead. plus, french luxury stocks saying you a revoir to recent gains. and eli lilly climbing to new heights. more on those fast movers when "fast money" returns. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money." the s&p and nasdaq closing at fresh record highs to kick off the week. the dow feel about 30 points. paramount lower today after agreeing to merge with sky dance media, ending months of negotiations and marking an end to the redstone family's control of the media giant. a group that includes private equity firms red bird capital

and kkr whether invest $8 billion as part of this deal. president biden insisting to democratic law makers he is staying in the race. but will there be more pressure on his re-election campaign as congress comes back from the fourth of july holiday? emily wilkins has the latest from capitol hill. emily? >> hey, melissa. we are outside the senate right now, where, yes, law makers are back. the first time since the july 4th recess, the first time since biden had that debate. and, of course, the big question is, how many of them are still backing him as the nominee? at this point, we've had nine democrats, elected democrats come out and say that they want biden to step down. now, these are either public statements or in a call with leadership last night. we also have individuals like senator jon tester, who has about called for biden to withdraw, but has had very critical stays. tester saying that biden is going to need to show him and other americans that he is going to be able to do this job for the next four years. at the same point, we have seen

members come out with statements favoring biden, saying he should stay in the race, folks should continue to support him. among those, katherine cortez masto. she's running in nevada. democrats are going to have to hold onto that. and she said in the statement, biden's always had nevada's back, whether it's on the picket lines, protecting our personal freedoms, or lowering costs. now it's time for us to have his. most members have not come out at this point on the record, but we're expecting now that folks are back in person, able to have those in-person conversations and family meetings, we are expecting a lot more action in terms of law many makers coming out and saying one way or the other whether they can still back biden. melissa? >> emily, thank you. emily wilkins in d.c. our next guest thinks it could be a make or break week for the president's campaign. let's bring in brian gardner, senior washington policy analyst. great to have you with us. make or break, and you actually put odds on your belief that

biden will stay in the race, so, what are the odds that he drops out and stays in? >> i think it's about a 40% chance that he drops out, which means there's a 60% chance, more likely than not, that he's going to stay in. i mean, i never underestimate joe biden's determination, stubbornness. these are traits that have served him his entire career. and i think, you know, he's probably leaning into that stubbornness right about now. >> i mean, this is all interesting political theater to watch, brian, but does it -- i mean, has it impacted your odds in terms of how you think about who will win the election, if biden stays in? >> i think the debatechanged my eyes. i thought trump was a favorite going into the debate, and those odds went up. now, there is a cap, right? because there is a certain level of voter that is just never going to vote for donald trump, no matter what. and democrats controlling the electoral votes of several large states, you can never overestimate republican chances of winning the presidency.

but certainly trump's chances have gone up post-debate. so, yeah, it's -- biden is in a difficult spot, and i kind of tied it back, i thought your opening segment on the consumer was just face scinating in political terms, because the consumer, biden really needs, right? and that segment of the consumer that's feeling a little stressed right now, biden's job approval numbers is proven by his numbers on the economy. they're not good numbers. you guys were pointing a picture of a consumer that's not going to feel better in the months leading up to the election. that's another problem for biden. >> brian, it's karen. thank you for being on today. this number, this 40/60 number, has that changed in the last few days? >> it changed with the debate. i mean, to be honest with you, i kind of floated back and forth a little bit. i was always a 20% guy. throughout the entire cycle. because you have to go in with some level of recognition that the president, with his age,

could just decide one day that he was not up for the job, and up for serving a second term. in february, i raised the odds to 40% when the special counsel's report came out. it was pretty damning in terms of the president's ability to do the job. his mental capacity. then, you follow that up with the state of the union, an aggressive push by the white house jaefyard ward afterwards,n to 20%. but i can never get over that 50% mark, because joe biden's stubbornness, determination. they think they can do the job. and, you know, on the stubbornness, biden loves to prove the smart kids in the democratic party wrong. so, the more he hears voices from the elites that he needs to get out, the more he digs in his heels. >> brian, this is lori. when you talk to investors, are you sensing that they're ready

to put on trades that are similar to what they did for trump back in 2016? and do you think that's the right thing to do, are you sensing that people are really, you know, wanting to go back to that historical playbook, and do you agree that's the right approach? >> going back to the fall, in conversations, you could just see a move, in conversations with investors, both retail and institutional, that there was a growing belief that trump would be the winner in november. so, i think that's kind of been playing out for months. now, i think it's a mistake to think that we're going to repeat 2016. 2016 was a surprise, it was a surprise to -- to most people, including the trump folks. it was a surprise to the election. this is not a surprise. if he wins, we will see this coming. so, that kind of dilutes the impact. that being said, we get the -- get to the election, the day after the election, if there is a clear winner on -- in november, on november 5th, i think the market rallies after that, just on clarity.

it probably rallies more with trump than with biden, but if there's a clear winner, i just think the relief that we have avoided some kind of chaos and civil unrest is a positive for the markets. >> brian, thank you. brian gardner. >> thank you, melissa. that's a low bar. avoid civil unrest because there's a clear winner. >> especially when you consider where the market has come from. and if you look at where people see the potential for black swan events or two to three standard deviation events, they are geopolitics. it may not be in november. this is independent of who wins. but there are many people that think what could follow from there is enough political chaos, even if it doesn't mean, you know, awful challenges to democracy, but that relate to the u.s. deficit, and rerlate t the u.s. credit worthiness and what it could mean for interest rates. and the u.s., of all those geopolitical potential spots out there, isn't the largest, but it's shocking in the world we

live in that it's at least one of those places after a 35% move in the s&p from last october that you have to count on, and it's not going to happen on november 5th. it's probably going to happen as you get into '25. >> right. the context, too, what is going on politically around the world, with the backdrop of inflation crushing the consumer, back to the conversation about how the consumer feels, what have we seen in the uk, what have we seen in france so far, you know, next up, u.s.? >> without question. and the next question is, who is going to be more inflationary -- i don't know the answer to that, i think both will be. but if you think former president trump is going to win, i think you also have to believe, then, the first order of business amongst many is firing jerome powell and putting in a hand-selected person, he or she, to be fed chair, and their first order of business to lower rater in a meaningful way. he's effectively said that, so, you think trump wins, rates are going lower, at least longer term rates and that's going to be really inflationary. so, those trades will work. coming up, eli lilly at a fresh record high.

are there still big opportunities in big pharma at these levels? a closer look at the group's high flyers. that is next. "ft ne iba itwasmoy"s ckn o.

♪ in any business, you ride the line between numbers and people. what's right for the business and what's best for everyone who depends on it. solving today's challenges while creating future opportunities. it takes balance. cla - cpas, consultants, and wealth advisors. we'll get you there.

welcome back to "fast money." let's get to some of today's fast movers, starting with french luxury stocks. kering and hermes down. the high-end consumer names among the biggest laggards in france's cap 40 index, which closed half a percent lower in monday trading. you were watching this very closely. >> yes, because i'm long lvmh. the uncertainty, the -- well, the outcome we had, but what does this mean? that's uncertain. so the cap was down. so, i think it's not crazy to think some sort of soak the rich, tax luckyxury goods, woult be shocking. that i have tried things in the past. some have not been successful. but i think that has to be part of the reason, as well, that it's underperformed today's move down in france. >> but i feel like today's news was a shock, first of all, a big surprise that le pen's group came in third, and that you also

don't really have a solid foundation for the far left. so, i would think that that kind of stalemate is fantastic. it's certainly fantastic for europe. and as someone who thinks a european credit crisis, sovereign debt crisis is coming, i won't tell you when, because they've done a great ten-year delay job on it, but i think those are things i'm less worried about today after that surprise election result. all right, eli lilly also on the move today, hitting an all-time high after inking a deal to buy morphic for $3.2 billion. it would give lilly a pipeline for a kron's disease drug. the pipeline sort of sounds like it's getting fatter and fatter for this one. >> approaching $900 billion market cap. a company, again, we talked about it, maybe they'll do $52 billion in revenue next year. again, great company. it's not an indictment at all.

it's more an indictment of the valuation. i've been concerned about it now for quite some time, and that's been wrong, but at a certain point, it's going to matter. i get the growth trajectory and i understand the total addressable market and all those great things, but at a certain point, it's rich. and i got to believe it's pretty rich right now. >> do you like pharma at this point? it's all about lilly and novo. >> we don't hate it, but it just looks neutral on everything. the push-back i kept getting when i with us trying to be overweight, i can't own health care stocks in a presidential election year. i went back and checked the stats, and they tend to underperform, regardless of outcome. coming up, raise a glass to the ready to drink revolution. inside a new pennsylvania law that could reshape the big booze industry, and how to take refa meyrit teyour portfolio. mo "ston" ghafr this. investment professionals know the importance of keeping their clients on track.

sometimes they need help cutting through the noise, to ensure fresh investment ideas keep flowing, and to analyze the market from every angle. at allspring, we deliver the unexpected, by relentlessly exploring where others don't. allspring, follow the insight.

♪ ♪ whasssssup. greetings happen. yeah, that's not good happens. huge things happen. home happens. woo hoo! be there with ring. shop early prime day deals at amazon dot com. when we're young, we're told anything is possible... ...but only a few of us go out and prove it. witness the greatness of anna hall on a connection worthy of gold: xfinity mobile. only xfinity gives you the most powerful mobile wifi network, with speeds up to a gig in millions of locations. and right now, xfinity internet customers

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top. >> maybe pour another, right? a new law in pennsylvania awaiting final signature would allow the sales of spirits-based canned cocktails at over 10,000 new locations in the state. now, currently, only 25 states fully allow spirit sales at grocery and convenience stores. rather 47 straits permit the sale of beer. well, this law, and similar laws in 11 other states like california would narrow that gap. now, it's a big deal for beer brewers like bud light, because it means shifting shelf space away from beer, which is already declining in volume sales. now, look. the reality is, beer isn't falling off of a cliff, but in 2023, canned cocktails were the fastest growing spirit segment by revenue. growing over 25% into a multibillion dollar market. for investors, it makes the big brewers that are leaning in really stand in. constellation brands, as we heard earlier this week, still figuring out where it stands in the spirit strategy, while dominating beer. >> so, spirits, people are not

so crazy about, but in a can, mixed with stuff -- >> it's the convenience play. the consumer wants convenience, which is maybe why you are sort of seeing the more premium brands a little bit more. you have the jack and coke products, it's a mix, depending on who is leading. >> it's a mix. >> it's in the mix, yeah, yeah. >> we're just talking on the call about, you know, spirits in cans, and they didn't really have a great reputation. >> no. >> bartels and james. >> reminds me that scene in "european vacation." where chevy is asked if he would like a coke in the can. >> i have it right here. >> i think what's going on here, you nailed the dynamics in the industry. beer sales are certainly declining. and you have the consolidation that's going on. the big spirits brands have brands. as opposed to, you know, gallo and high noon have been very successful because it's really just about is vodka and things that mix nicely.

it's not about jack daniels and jim beam. i think it's fascinating, but i think at the end of the day, some of the things we talked about already on this show are what's hurting people. it's the consumer's in trouble. >> brandon, great to see you, thank you. brandon gomez. up next, final trades.

final trade time, tim. >> it's been a brutal run for diageo. i like this one. >> if i own no nike, i would actually start buying some

tomorrow. >> lori, great to you have here tonight. >> buy the u.s. when trump is beating biden, u.s. is beating europe. >> guy? >> spirits in the can, hey, mel? >> in a can, not the can. >> oh, a can. paas. >> thank you for watching "fast." see you see you back here tomorw for more "fast" and 5:00. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. hallelujah! other people make friends, i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain, but to educate and teach. call me 1-800-743-cnbc. tweet me @jimcramer. have i some tough news for everyone who is soyfk