in the business. up 17% year-to-date. >> jenny? >> senior housing provider ventas. over the next five years, 24% cater in 80-year-old population. >> joseph? >> 198% gain. >> see you on "closing bell." "the exchange" begins right now. ♪ ♪ >> thank you very much, scott. welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead this hour. fed chair powell warning the risk of staying too high for too long, but our market guest is warning of a different risk. one he does wall street has its head in the sand on. he'll tell us what it is and how he's positioning. wall street's analysts are love thing ipo. eight of them initiating kompbl a -- coverage. and if you think of media and entertainment stocks, this may not be top of mind but should be according to morgan stanley.

we've got the name, what makes it superior to the competition and how much runway is ahead. let's start with the markets with dom chu. dom, people are talking about narrowing leadership. >> we've got some relative momentum, because we're just about near session highs right now. all three major indexes are in the green. the dow have reversed a down day, up roughly 110 points, one quarter of 1% to the upside. the level is 39,453. i'm going to put the stars up, because we hit intraday highs for the nasdaq and the broader s&p 500. the s&p, by the way, the new high water mark, is 5588. that's the new high intraday high. at 5585, or 13 points a @ highs of the session, up 16 and up four points tat low. so that's the intraday trading range. and the nasdaq composite lagging, only up 0.1 of 1%, to

18,425. rates a big focus today as janet yellen and fed chair jay powell both talking to members of congress in separate parts of the building. the two-year note stands at 2.64%. most of the yield curve is higher. the ten-year note at 4.315%. and for those traders and investors who use etfs to take that view on rates and government bonds, the tlt ticker is down about 2/3 of 1% at $92.11 each. and if you're looking for a read on the consumer, it's not necessarily a bellwether, but it was a big earnings report this morning in so much as the stock move was massive. helen of troy is down 27% right now, $64.63. the reason why it's important is it's a big repository for a lot of consumer brand names that you may or may not be familiar with. oxo kitchen tools, osprey outdoor gear, vick's vapor rub,

and they missed on earnings and revenues. they gave guidance for the full year that was below expectations. and the company is talking about what they see as a continued stretched consumer as part of that bigger macro uncertainty story. so if you're looking for a read on the consumer, again, not necessarily bellwether worthy, but another tea leaf along the way. helen oftroy down about 27%. back to you. >> dom, i'm so glad you brought it up. we were talking about it the other day about all the consumer goods packaged company whose prices are too high. i think it is a bellwether this time. >> it reaches a lot of the spectrum in terms of income levels across the country. it's not necessarily massive brands, but vick's vaporub, people use those things. >> thank you, dom chu. fed chair powell's testimony just wrapped up. he told congress holding rates high for too long could jeopardize economic growth.

let's dig into what it means for next rate decision. greg is here, with our very own steve liesman. gentlemen, good to see you. steve, i'm pretty clear opening the door to a september cut here? is july still in the unlikely camp? >> yeah, i would say in the unlikely camp, and making some let's say rhetorical progress towards the possibility of a september cut. i don't think he committed, but he did sort of go maybe a couple steps further than he went last week in portugal, talking about the, you know, significantly less tight labor market, saying the likelihood of the next move is a loosening but not committing to a timing and talking about considerable cooling to the labor market and emphasizing the dual risk that they have. sort of joining along with some of the more dovish members of the fed who have spoken, kelly, who said you know what? there's an emerging need to

spend more time thinking about the second part of the mandate. that is the employment part of the mandate. so he added a few adjectives during the q and a, but not much in terms of when you look at how fed funds move, really they took it a little bit more hawkish than perhaps they were expecting. yields are a touch higher, and the probabilities are just a touch lower. still looking at a 72%, 73% probability of a second cut in december, and upwards of 70% or 80% for one in september or november. >> in other words, greg, markets wanted more. you know, everyone is talking about claudia som m's post where she seemed to say it could be time for cuts now. >> it's time for the fed to consider calibration of policy to today's conditions. we have an economy that is gradually slowing, not retrenching, but consumers are

being more prudent. we're seeing the labor market cool. there was some very interesting research from the san francisco fed saying the rate people pay for payroll with higher immigration is around $230-k. we're running at a three-month moving average of about $180-k. so we're below that, that's why the unemployment rate is modifying. we are at a state which the fed should consider recalibrating monetary policy. i was saying about a month ago, july would have been an optimal time to do so. i think september will be a little late to do that. >> greg, it's funny because it feels like you're right, but at the same time, people might say what's the big deal, six weeks here, six weeks there, a quarter point cut here or there. what's at stake? >> i think the risk here is that we have a more material slowdown in the labor market that happens in the coming weeks and the coming months. we know that the labor market report is one that is a lagging indicator. so any weakness that we see in

prior months may be just the initial sign of a slowdown that may be more pro-found. right now, what the fed should do and should look to do is really recalibrate monetary policy in a gentle manner to accommodate today's economic circumstances. not do so too rapidly once it starts to see a much more pronounced slowdown in economic activity. being ahead of the curve and having that forward looking perspective is something that has been missing and should really be a key consideration for fed policymakers today. >> go ahead, steve. >> yeah, greg, i worry about the fed's reputation if it miss this turn. i think that the fed has had a lot of warning and a lot of reasons to reduce rates, at least marginally in the sense that they reached a peak rate about a year ago. it will be this meeting coming up where they reached the peak rate. they're seeing now it's a year on that those rates are starting to bite. you had a tightening of

financial conditions in the sense that real rates have risen relative to the inflation rate. i think there's -- there is the economy at stake here and jobs. that's the most important thing. but i feel like it's going to be very difficult for powell to explain away, if there's a recession here, how he missed this. >> i think you're absolutely right. missing it on two sides. initially when inflation was more persistent than initially anticipated. >> that's the reason. >> but even on the downside here, we have the possibility of a downside risk to the economy. i was very much encouraged by the statements in powell's testimony today, saying that inflation is no longer the only risk we face. that two-sided risk approach and view is increasingly important in an economy that is gradually turning. again, we're not talking about a recession or a retrenchment in private sector activity. we're talking about recalibrating monetary policy to be on a sustainable trajectory

and ensure that the economy has more legs to run and manages to run at a higher clip than would be the case should the fed maintain an excessively restrictive environment in an environment where the labor market, as powell said, is balanced. >> yet there are plenty of folks out there still warn that inflation could prove stickier than we think, and the fed shouldn't be too hasty cutting. so the three of us would be on the one side of history here, thinking it will be obvious they went too slowly. others would say the risk is still they go too quickly. >> right. but here's the problem, kelly. a couple problems. first of all, do you know where you're going to be oven january 2, 2025? >> are we going to talk about the yield curve? >> well, no. what i want to talk about is the fed is planning a dinner date for the monetary policy that

will exist in january of next year. >> right. >> and a year from now in july of next year. so it has to be forward looking. it cannot rely solely on the current data. that is almost certainly a recipe for a mistake. >> and the only reason i mention the yield curve, we're all trying to figure that out. we only have financial markets to look to. all of the jobless claims, all of the leading indicators. and there's people like dean mackie who are still sanguine and optimistic about the consumer in all of this. >> i think you can be sanguine about the consumer. i think you see -- i think you pick a neutral rate and you go with it. i feel like there's a little bureaucratic fear here of getting it wrong, and by the way it's worth pointing out, kelly, this is not germane to the conversation. at least one senator warning powell not to cut before the election. so this is a very charged,

political atmosphere right now, that powell is trying to make a decision. and i get that. but here's the thing -- you have to pick the neutral rate, decide that you are, indeed restrictive. and then ask yourself do we need the restrictiveness that we had back in july when inflation was quite a bit higher? i believe the answer to be no. >> that's the one thing no one wants. everyone says you can't know the neutral rate. it's probably not 5.5%, but is it 4%, is it 2.5%? look at what williams said it may be as low as it was prepandemic. if that's the only thing they need to figure out, there still seems to be a wide band of variability. >> i don't think you have to have a precise estimate of where the neutral rate is. what you have to have is a good vision of where the economy and inflation is headed. really, what the fed is trying to do ensure an environment where you have a sustainable pace of economic growth and inflation that's back towards its 2% target.

we have disinflationary momentum that's still on track. we have the economy that's gradually slowing. if you look at some of the forward looking indicators like claims for unemployment. they're showing that gradual decline. if you maintain an excessively restrictive stance and do not recalibrate to today's circumstances and what we expect in a year from now, then you're going to make a policy mistake, and you're going to lead to further weakness in the labor market and potentially some financial tightening conditions that could disrupt private sector activity. >> i'm trying to play devil's advocate, but i agree. i'll leave it there. always a pleasure. thank you both. with powell testifying before the senate banking committee, house democrats are holding a high-stakes meeting to determine the future of joe biden's re-election bid. eight sitting house democrats have called on him to drop out. emily will kins is on capitol hill with the latest. emily? >> reporter: yeah, house

democrats do remain divided over whether to back biden at the top of the ticket. as concerns do remain about the strength of his candidacy. lawmakers met for the first time since biden's rough debate performance just hours go. while some have called for bide on the withdraw, many at the meeting were adamant that biden has been selected by the voters, and he will be the candidate and have the support of his party. congressman jerry nadler who initially said that biden should step down, told me today he now supports biden. but he and other lawmakers, such as congressman mcgovern, dodged questions over whether they have concerns about his ability to win it. >> the president made very clear yesterday that he's running, and to me, that's dispositive. we have to support him. >> do you have concerns about biden being on top of the ticket?

>> that's beside the point. >> he's within a great president. >> do you have concerns about president biden? >> i think he's been a great president. >> reporter: senate democrats are meeting now, but unlike the house, none have publicly called on bide on the withdraw. concerns have been raised, but kelly, for now it seems like the wagons are circling around biden here on capitol hill. certainly a number of members tell me there are still many discussions to be had. >> he remains defiant, does he not? >> biden does, absolutely. i think that's part of the reason why you are seeing more lawmakers say hey, if he's not going to step down, he's the one with the delegates and the ones the voters supported and he is the president. he's the head of the party. one of the members who publicly called on biden to step down quickly, he left the meeting today. he didn't want to talk about what was in the meeting but said he was off the christmas card list. so certainly there is a list that maybe the wind in the sails

might be towards those who want biden to stay in, and who don't relish the thought of a potentially messy primary and some uncertainly about who would replace him. >> we appreciate you chasing the congressmen down. thank you, emily. my next guest says the u.s. election is an underrated risk for the markets. for more on where in the world he's seeing opportunity in the world, let's talk to lee munson, freshly back from japan, from new mexico. you have a little different spin on things, one is that you do think the election is something people aren't paying enough attention to from a market's point of view. >> let's look at some of the evidence. after that disastrous debate, we saw the entire yield curve, the 10, the 30 sell off forever a few days. that is a clear sign that the markets are saying, a trump victory is going to be stimulative to the economy, we're going to write off deficits, we'll have tariffs. you might see the 10-year treasury another a 4.8 or

higher. when you take that into account, that will tell us we're expecting more growth. that will affect fed policy. if we start having regulation get stripped, if we know we're going to have a bunch of deficit spending, that will jack up the dow and it will be a very different idea that we'll have a slow recession going into next year. >> it's interesting in light of the discussion we were just having on the timing of rate cuts. maybe whether to think they should or will cut in sent, they might be wondering if a trump administration could introduce some of those more stimulative policies and undermine the need for a cut. >> there's that theory that powell is just a political machine, like everything else. i understand that. you know, i sort of half agree with it, half do not. but the reality, is we think that he's not going to cut until after november for political reasons. i agree he won't cut until november because we don't know which way this will go. we have one older gentleman that

will want to tax more and slow down the economy and huge deficit spending and another guy that will want to stimulate the economy and still run a huge deficit. >> when i look at this, i say biden has been fiscally e expansive and stimulative. all of those things that maybe on the long end there's a difference between trump and biden, but i'm not sure that there is. >> i don't think there is, and i think when you look at it, in the minutia, sure. if you're into little sectors or trading solar stocks versus energy stocks, yes, pay attention. but for a guy like me, i run money for older, retired piece, so i have a 60/40 mix and make it hot. it's not really affecting how i'm allocating what sectors i'm really in. if we still -- you know, even if biden wins or whoever replaces biden might win, we should have a lot of momentum going into next year. small caps, they're still

expected to earn 8%, 9%. even old, stojy and widow and orphan stocks are expected to earn. but i worry about that helen of troy issue. >> i think that is a major story today. and what is the story? all of the price hikes that we have seen coming down the pike, the companies have to reverse them. when it's a disinflationary or outright disinflation, their margins were horrendous. we are just hope that this isid y i >> i've got a lot of old economy stocks. while they compound over time, i'm very concerned how -- whether those estimates are off or not. >> you get a day like today, it undoes a lot of that compounding. the last person we spoke to said all of his clients want to be more risk on. they love their nvidia.

he's telling them time to sell and pair back. we talked about it, are you experiencing anything like that, and whether you lean into that? because that's why the earnings growth is. maybe they still have that margin expansion versus the rotation. >> so here's the deal. i grew up in that warren buffett world, in a traditional, you know, you buy value stocks. you do that thing. i recently rebalanced that. i have a bunch of treasuries, i bought the october low last year, so i rebalanced about 100 points ago. if we get an august-to-november surprise and get a pullback, i'm not saying a 10% correction. just a 5% pullback would be nothing. i'm not going to throw that money back into large value. i may look at utilities, because i think ai will jack up l electricity demand. when you look at the last sen years of fossil fuel juuse, thas going up. i'm looking at the mag seven.

you're talking about 20 plus -- you talk about 25%, 20% earnings growth going forward. as much as i hate it and despite tech, because i grew up in the dot com world -- >> this is ironic. rich burnstein told us that the market leadership now is as narrow as it was in march 2000 at the very tippy top before the crash. and burnstein would say, so you think there's no bubble? what do you say about stats like that? but the earnings growth is so different. >> i love reading his stuff, i'm a secret admirer. but that's the old economy idea of mean reversion. i no longer believe in mean reversion, you heard it here. i think a lot -- what made value work in the past was the churn. you get stuff that blows up, you know, rises from the phoenix. but you don't have enough burnsteins around or like me who dedicate into value investing

anymore. i think market structure has changed, and the private equity over the last 15 years, anything good in value land has been -- it's done. it's private. so now we're back to an idea that the values, small value, large value, those are asset plays. look at 2022. saved my rear end in relative performance. the clients are very happy that we added value. the reason you -- >> keep the exposure but lean into what's working. is if i had to add right now, i'm adding to the large stuff. but when you have an inflation scare, which could happen later this year, that value either goes up or stays solid. you know what you do? you sell that and tech makes money now. when i was a kid on wall street 25 years old, tech only lost money. now they can't even -- >> they have gones. >> they have gobs of money. i hate structural changes in markets because it forces me to have to think harder, and all my heroes i have to put them aside

and say you're a hero from the past, we play a different game. >> mean reversion is dead. i hope the next chapter isn't, long live mean reversion. thank you for your time. still to come, shares of this recent ipo were down 20% since going public, but it's getting some love on the street today with analysts overwhelmingly bullish on the health care tech firm backed by softbank. after the break, we'll reveal the name and ask the biggest bull on the street why he sees the stock rallying 60%. plus, this name is coming off 11 straight months of gains. shares have more than doubled. it was morgan stanley's top tick in the entertainment space. and before we go to break, take a quick look at shares of oracle, slumping 4% now on a report that the information that elon musk and axi and oracle have ended talks to expand their current server deal. xai buying chips to build a data center of its own.

"the exchange" is back after this. >> this is "the exchange" on cnbc. [♪♪] your skin is ever-changing, take care of it with gold bond's healing formulations of 7 moisturizers and 3 vitamins.

for all your skins, gold bond. want to save on some of the biggest names in streaming on formu the network made forzers streaming? x marks the spot. now you can add the new xfinity streamsaver™ that includes netflix, peacock, and apple tv+. that's xfinity streamsaver™ for just $15 a month. all your favorites. all in one place. only from xfinity. for more watching and less spending... x marks the spot.

do it all on the network made for streaming, and bring on the good stuff. welcome back to "the exchange." our mystery chart on the recent ipo of tump tempus. mares were up as much as 5%.

now, we talk about tempus. it's down 20% since it went public. but my next guest says it will dominate its field. dan brennan is here, a senior am list covers s life science at t. cowan. good to see you. >> thanks, kelly. >> what does tempus ai do? >> it's a diagnostics company, so they have two main businesses, the first of which is they do diagnostic testing on cancer patients. they're among a handful of companies that will test for met static cancer patients. they look at dna and rna across a big panel and try to match patients that have certain mutations. this has been going on for ten years or so, and they're among

the labs in this market. hospitals across the america also do this on their own. so that's their main business and how the company was started. and then they take that data and they basically are able to package it and basically utilize it in a way to give it back to pharmaceutical companies who could then use that data for rnd purposes. so the data business is what we think is most differentiated in the story for a variety of reasons. the size of that database, it's kind of the engine that tempus has built in analytics and ai and some of the early success that they have had with some of the companies that they have seen in growth so far. >> why do you think the shares are down since the ipo, and significantly at 20%. >> i think the overall diagnostic and tool space has been under pressure since the bubble burst a few years ago with easy money ending and a lot of the venture capital money falling away. so we're trying to still look for a bottom there.

so this was the first ipo in the space in a couple of years, and i think it came out with arguably is something that's different than what investors have seen. there are a handful of companies that do the diagnostics testing today. they attract reasonably good multiples with good growth characteristics. tempus has that differentiated pharma angle, which we think has caused i don't want to say controversy but interesting questions with investors on how differentiated it is, and what is the mode around the business. so i think really the stock became public, and given some of the valuations across the peer group, the stock has gravitated back towards some of the valuations, and we think it's a great buying opportunity. >> 60% upside, $50 price target. we were talking about helen of troy and disinflationary pressure coming. when you look at your coverage universe, do you think this is an economic environment they can navigate and even thrive in, or are they going to also mace a

tough growth period -- face a tough growth period in the next 6 to 12 to 18 months growth time? >> my group has a variety of different customer base it is you will and different business models. tempus, we would think their business should be somewhat immune, given what their main business is serving cancer patients and they should be kind of immune to what's going on with the backboarder economy. on the pharma side, this year they've been tightening the strings a little bit. so it suggests that pharma is really trying to embrace this new wave to improve their clinical outcomes. so it should be rather immune from the market, if you look at other parts of the diagnostics sector, there are some more areas in the businesses that are -- could face some more cyclical pressure and have the

inability to pass through pricing. so for the most part, the tools industry has gravitated away from the cyclical areas and focused on the structural growth areas and have been able to achieve positive pricing power. >> quick last question, just because you mentioned this. do you think there's going to be a big shakeup of the pbm model in the works or no? is this system entrenched and it will stay the way it is for another 20 years or could it be very different in five years' time? >> on that, kelly, i would have to get my colleague on the phone. i'm just not as close to it, but yeah, i'm sure they would be happy to hop on the lunch on one of these sessions. >> it would have to be an eight-hour lunch to get through all of the issues in that field. we'll leave it for there. thanks for your time. >> you got it, kelly. coming up, apple, alphabet,

walmart and costco some of the big-cap names hitting new record highs today. so much of what we said about consumer pressure with helen of troy. but there are stocks sitting out the rally. we'll run through four of them on "three buys and a bail" coming up after a break.

what is cirkul? cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. cirkul is the energy that gets you to the next level. cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul.com.

welcome back to "the exchange," everybody. i'm tyler mathisen with your cnbc news update. hunter biden withdrew his motion for a new gun trial earlier this morning. in court filings, the lawyers for the president's son walked back their request submitted last month for a new trial based on a lack of jurisdiction after prosecutors said the motion was based on "a misunderstanding of appellate practice." jury selection under way in santa faye for alec baldwin's manslaughter trial. he could face up to 18 months in prison, when a prop gun he was reversing with accidently discharged a live bullet, killing the film's cinematographer and injurying the director. and jim imhof has died. he was the state's longest serving senator, serving five years from '94 until his retirement in 2023.

he was known as a defense hawk and long denied that people were responsible for climate change. former senior aide confirmed he died this morning after suffering a stroke over the fourth of july holiday. he was 89. kelly, back to you. >> rest in peace. tyler, thank you very much. now back to markets now where the s&p and the nasdaq have been t record highs throughout the session today. you can see with these small gains it's still enough to put us into the territory, the dow is up 73 points today. it was also down 198 at the lows, but not everything is at record highs today. walgreens is hovering near the lowest level since 1997. also all of these stocks are trading near 52-week lows. four of them, everyone but walgreens, also in the red. coming up, a look at morgan stanley's top mpick in the medi

and entertainment space. we'll talk to the analyst behind the call where he sees another 20% upside from here. and check out shares of vistra rebounding. the power producer is up 150% since january, making it the third best performing stock in the s&p this year. the ceo jim burke will be on "closing bell" today at 3:00 p.m. time for an interview. back after this.

(reporters) over here. kev! kev! (reporter 1) any response to the trade rumors, we keep hearing about? (kev) we talkin' about moving? not the trade, not the trade, we talking about movin'. no thank you. (reporter 2) you could use opendoor. sell your house directly to them, it's easy. (kev) ... i guess we're movin'.

welcome back. spotify was the mystery chart we've been showing you. it's on a tear, surging more than 60% this year. hi next guest sees a long runway ahead for user growth, naming it a top pick in media and entertainment. joining me now is my next guest. ben, i'm very excited about this. do tell, have the podcast economicing finally improved enough to love the snok >> great to see you, kelly. we've been bullish on the music industry for a while. believing it's underpriced, undermonetized. we spend as americans less money today on music than we did in 1999, and that's in nominal dollars, so real dollars down

even more. spotify had not raised prices since it entered the u.s. market in 2011, until late last year. and so yes, podcasting has become a profitable business for them for the first time, but there's a bigger story around building spotify from a great product to a great business. >> what is that story? >> yeah, the reason we're so bullish is that in addition to beginning with pricing cycle, they've launched an audio books business, which is bigger than even podcasting in drive thing business to higher profitability levels. the music business is a good business for them, but most of the economics go to the supply side, the music labels, the artists. as they build out additional verticals, it creates additional profit pools that i don't think the market fully appreciates yet. so we are meaningfully above consensus forest mates next year. >> why are audio books such a good business, and are those

margins they can protect? >> spotify starts with the most highly engaged, i don't know what streaming music service you pay for -- >> none -- well, youtube music. i'm not a big music person. so it's all about the spoken word. ises yeah. well, spotify might be right for you. you get 15 hours of free audiobook content if you take the higher priced bundle. but they have the most engaged consumers and the lowest churn, not just of all the streaming music services but of all streaming services. so they're taking advantage of that strong user base and layering on new services, including audio books. audio books has been a small market historically, but the way they have marketed it, about a quarter roughly of their users who can access audio books have started to. and more importantly, it's allowed them to take price on the service, while driving much higher margins than they have seen this the music business. >> anecdotally, i think people

are listening so much more to books than reading them today. it's just much easier, you can do it on the go, do it in the car, what have you. there's people like my siblings who will never get rid of spotify because it has their play list. they need to make sure they get that right, and not lose that as they build up these other offerings. how much profit upside do you see in the next couple of years? >> i mean, until 2024, spotify didn't make money. so this was a business that became a public company in 2018, grew its user base rapidly. i think most investors understand it's got a very strong product. but we're just at the beginning of the building oh of a big business from a profit point of view. a lot of tough decisions in spotify last year on the head count front, but now taking advantage of their products and taking price, you're really seeing that inflection. so we're in a 20% plus top line revenue growth. next year, our estimates are

double digits above consensus, which is a combination of revenue growth, but also importantly operative in the business. >> final question, how much is a subscription story versus an advertising story? at a time when ad dollars are shifting around so much, and it's been said that podcasts aren't profitable enough, is there an advertising lever that you anticipate contributing significantly to the upside or is this still a subscription story? >> i think it's subscription, but with an expanding service offering. i think you need to think about spotify as more than just music. this is really an app for many users that it's something they're not going to cancel. you mentioned play listing. a lot of investors think the same muse ic is on the same service. the majority of listening is on play lists and a big chunk is play lists that we have all

programmed. so that's a real investment. >> there's still people who try to use i tunes because they have their favorite songs and play lists. ben, thank you very much for joining us. good to see you today. >> you too, thank you. coming up, we discussed how artificial intelligence can help diagnose and treat cancer. but can it also help facilitate a more wholistic approach to disease management in general? the details of how they're ungsi ai to tackle the human side of health care is next. car, this isn't the way home. that's right james, it isn't. car, where are we going? we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!! the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. car, were you in on this? nothing gets by you james. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com

[crowd chanting] they ignored your potential, and mocked your ambition. but it's not the critic who counts. with every swing and block, your game plan never changed. ♪♪ some still call it luck. let them. because you know what it's always been. inevitable. ♪♪ ♪♪ business. it's not a nine-to-five proposition. it's all day and into the night. it's all the things that keep this world turning. it's the go-tos that keep us going. the places we cheer. trust.

hang out. and check in. they all choose the advanced network solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. powering more businesses than anyone. powering possibilities. (grandpa vo) i'm the richest guy in the world. hi baby! (woman 1 vo) i have inherited the best traditions. (woman 2 vo) i have a great boss... it's me. (man 1 vo) i have people, people i can count on. (man 2 vo) i have time to give

(grandma vo) and a million stories to share. (grandpa vo) if that's not rich, i don't know what is. (vo) the key to being rich is knowing what counts. welcome back. openai's sam altman is teaming up with arianna huffington for a new startup, thrive ai health. . our deidre bosa spoke with huffington about it and has more today. how does this work, deidre? >> so, kelly, as you know, health care is one of the most promising areas for generative

ai, but it's not an easy one. with thrive ai, huffington and sam altman aim to use ai to promote healthier lifestyles with a customed coach. i spoke to huffington and asked her why their venture would be different from other high profile swings and misses like ibm's watson house. >> we're only about behaviors, we're not giving medical advice. so we're not coming into the regulator ecosystem, where any company that has tried to do that and give medical advice inevitably also comes into. >> so that's less red tape, which is important. this is more personalization of wellness. sam altman convinced decarlos love to run it. funding comes from thrive and openai's startup fund. >> very little is being done to

improve our behaviors, behavior change is hard. ai is uniquely positioned to provide a solution here, because of the high personalization is made possible, and because of its super human memory that can collect potentially billions of points. >> so this will be available as a mobile app offered through businesses and partners on thrive's platform. it's device agnostic. altman has been seeking funding for personal al ai device and altman continues to build this broad ai ecosystem through openai itself. his open personal investments thrive ai is now the latest piece of that. >> i still wonder how many people will download it. it's one more app in a very crowded field. >> yeah, and i spoke to her about this. this is going to be essentially offered from your company, and

there's concerns always with the data, health data, sleeping data. her aim is to make you more productive. that makes a lot of sense for the work and for the business. but when it comes to your personal health information, she says that the employer is never going to be able to see. this but still, i understand where you're coming from. i would feel the same way. >> deidre, thank you very much for bringing that to us. appreciate it. coming up, one more mystery chart before we go. shares of this health care name are down about 8% so far this year, and our trader says it's time to buy. we'll reveal it and the two other unloved big caps she's pullish on, next . okay, team! oh, thank you so much i couldn't have done it without you. honestly, i don't do a whole lot here.

i'm really just here for the at&t internet, it's super-fast so, any pre-launch concerns? what if nobody buys them? that's mean or, what if everybody buys them? oh, i hadn't thought of that that's probably not gonna happen can we handle that kind of traffic? the network can handle it! i downloaded eight hours of true crime stories just during our last video call i'm learning a lot ♪(voya)♪ there are some things that work better together. like your workplace benefits and retirement savings. voya provides tools that help you make the right investment and benefit choices. so you can reach today's financial goals and look forward to a more confident future. voya, well planned, well invested, well protected.

they started as dreamers. but today, they're stars. follow every moment of team usa on the network that brings you legendary speed and reliability: xfinity mobile. with xfinity mobile, you'll have the most powerful mobile wifi network with you on the go, with exclusive access to speeds up to a gig in millions of locations nationwide. and right now, xfinity internet customers can buy one unlimited line and get one free for a year. get the fastest connection to paris with xfinity. ♪ welcome back. with the s&p and the nasdaq at record highs, is there anything cheap left out there, especially in the meg cap world? well, according to ever core there is. the firm ran a screener but expanded to the russell 1,000

stocks with a 10 plus billion dollar market cap, positive year to date earning revisions and at least seven top and bottom line beats in the past eight quarters. so we bring you three buys and a bail from that list. gina sanchez is here to do the honors. gina, welcome to you. we'll start with markets the shares are up 15% for the first half to make it one of the best performers in the healthcare space. you say this one is a buy? >> yeah. so it is one of the companies fair value if you look at their long-term medium forward pes. they have incredible opportunities for growth going forward. they have quietly doubles their sales expectations over the next 12 months. that's significant. there was a lot of concern over keytruda. but you see a number of other relationships that are coming to the fore, including in licensing from their new lung cancer drug.

a moderna cancer vaccine for melanoma. a lot of really great interesting things and a new dual agonist in the glp 1 category that combats fatty liver disease. these are all great revenue sources for merck in the long run. >> your next two picks are in the healthcare space. first one is abbott labs. it's down 8% this year. it reports next week. why would you pick it up here? >> so abbott labs is interesting. just got the confirmation from the fda to start distributing their glucose monitors without a prescription. i think right now given the wave of interest around health and improving health, obesity efforts, diabetes care, there's a really big market and a lot of interest for getting their hands on these glucose monitors. i think that's a big leader for them. they also have a huge brand portfolio that they are also benefitting from. and they've been growing their dividend. yes, the market is up to date,

but i think there will probably be volatility going into the election. i would say a stable dividend grower is probably not a bad edition to the portfolio. >> cig that is your final pick. shares down more than 9% over the past three months. >> yeah, cigna has been unloved. if you look they have two kind of components of their business. ever core ever north, their specialty pharmacy has done incredibly well. the expectation for growth going forward in the sort of long-term are somewhere between 5 and 8% growth over the long-term for revenue. that's solid. then if you look at their core business, their expectation there is higher and they're continuing to expand their relationships. and contracts with health systems, et cetera. so the outlook here is great. and healthcare on the whole, the big theme here is healthcare. is one of those really steady, eddy defensive stocks that you want to have to sort of help provide some stability in volatility. >> that brings us, drum roll please, those are your buys of

this whole stock screen list. we asked you, what would be one name you would bail on and this one i remember from the past, you're not a fan. it's zoom video down 20% year to date, but they did revise full-year earnings and revenue guidance higher last quarter. so still a sell for you? >> so, yes, it is. the challenge with zoom is that they are going to have to block and tackle for every new sell that they make because they have a premium model. and they're competing against microsoft teams that's bundled into every office 365 subscription that they have. so microsoft owns the client from the very beginning. where as zoom has to fight for budget. and that's the challenge. and, yes, they are improving their product. i think they've done a lot with their product. i do like their product but it is a challenge when you're having to convert premium to pay customers. >> sticking with teams. gina, thank you so much. hopefully joining us on zoom today. gina sanchez, we appreciate it.

that's it for "the exchange," everybody. tyler is getting ready for "power lunch," and i'll join him on the other side of this break. stay with us. icy hot. ice works fast. ♪♪ heat makes it last. feel the power of contrast therapy. ♪♪ so you can rise from pain. icy hot.

♪ good afternoon, everybody. welcome to "power lunch" alongside kelly evans, i'm tyler mat mathisen. glad you could join us. fed chair jay powell says the economy remains strong, despite recent schooling and holding rates too high for too long