just a bit. there you see the cause knack up by one tenth of a percent. so sort of a split market. >> and keeping an eye on helen of troy. thanks for watching "power lunch." "closing bell" starts right now. all right, guys, welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner. live from polst 9. in the meantime, let's look at the scorecard with 60 minute to say go in regulation, we are mostly higher, al bet it slightly on the s&p, but we are extending the record highs, so is the nasdaq. the dow will fight it out. the fed chair appear on capitol hill, appearing a bit dovish. s&p and nasdaq, we'll watch

them. financials is the best sector today. all with nice gains. apple is on the move again. it's once again the biggest market cap company in this market. it has been on a roll of late. so has tesla, higher yet again today. that takes us to our talk of the tape, how the play all that lies ahead, we will ask liz young thomas, sofi's head of investment strategy with me here at post 9. good to see you. >> good to see you, too. >> i felt leases that what the fed chair did. he was do muchish in portugal. he seemed to lay the ground work for what is coming. >> he did. after this week, we get two more cpi prints before the september meeting. the august pause builds in an opportunity for them to stay flexible. i think what happened today is we didn't see the futures market move too much on what it was expecting in july or september, but if we get a cooler print on

cpi this week, and a cooler print on cpi, september will get priced in as a lock. what does that mean for me preparing for that as an investor. what do i do? >> i city think there's a contradiction. it seems like the market cheers cooler data, as long as earns are strong. that's okay. as soon as we start cheering cooler data, i think the market will have to digest at what point is cool too cool? >> that's what goldman was talking about today. >> there's been a detachment. we want the economic data to get cooler, but earnings data needs to stay strong, and it continues to been that way. i think this quarter stints to be that way as well. we get cooler data in the economy, it confirms that the fed can start cutting rates in september.

stocks will cheer that, but the things i look at, even if we compare it to the mid 90 with his, we secured a soft landing, they started cutting rates when unemployment was 5.6% and falling. they cut rates into a strengthening labor market. at this point we just crossed above 4% in unemployment. we've been up for the last three months in a row. it will likely continue to weaken -- none of these numbers are concerning, but it will likely continue to weaken, and then it will cut into a weakening labor market. >> but weakness from a high level. >> from a tight spot, yes. >> the fed chair said, yes, it cool, but it's still strong, back in balance is the labor market. >> yes. >> it's not like it's falling apart, it's just slowing? >> right. >> which is kind of what they need? >> yes, right now. >> in some respects. >> in this present moment right

now, that's exactly what they need. back in balance is references how many more jobs are open and how many people are unemployed to fill those jobs. we were way for a tight before. the issue is that, if you look over history, the longest history you can find of an unemployment rate, as it starts to rise, it hits escape velocity quickly, and the rises usually happen very fast. we're still in a good sweet spot. 4.5% is still what is considered frictional unemployment, what we can expect in a healthy economy. we don't need the speed to pick up. if we can't get ahold of it while the fed is reacting, then it will look like they're reacting to something that's getting weaker. >> maybe the most debatable idea

is this idea of a portfolio move to make right now. trim some gains, particularly in large caps that are driving the market. you're talking about megacaps, okay? allocate sectors that elevate from a steepening curve. you really want to take some profits off the table? >> it's a gutsy statement. yeah. >> some people will say no way. why do you want to do it? >> whenever the markets gets to extremes, it's at a higher rink of what i'll call normalization. some of the metrics getting uncomfortably extreme right now are things like the forward p/e ratio on the s&p is 89th percentile. the spread between the equal-weighted s&p over one year is 17%. that's in the 99th percentile. we have the max drawdown this year so far only 5%.

if we hold that, that's in the 91st percentile. we're going to the point of extremes, in the sense of there is time what i would call a redistribution of strength. that doesn't mean a big pullback, but when you get certain pockets of the market that are so overly valued compared to others, there might need to be a redistribution. some people mike call it a broadening. >> that's what i'm going with. can you get the broadening, if you think there's can be i'll use your words, a redistribution of strengths at the same time where you appear to have some growing concerns about the strength of the economy. do i buy would your broadening story at the same time i buy into the weakness story? >> good question. the broadening story we have seen is into cyclicals, a broughtening into small caps. a broughtening into the sectors that would do well, that tend to do well in a steepening yield

curve environment, which is what i expect to happen in the second half if and when the fed starts cutting rates. >> like banks? >> some of it is financials, yes, but the ones that tend toll well in a prolonged steepening environment, is things like energies, staples, utilities health care -- i put an asterisk by health care because of the election -- but that's more of a dividend statement, and not the high flyers that we have seen. >> let's bring in chris harvey. we's with us at this table as well. good to see you. >> thank you. >> you want to debate what you heard? >> so, one thing, everyone is talking about rotation or lack thereof. it is the question on the table. is it going to happen? when is it going to happen?

our case is it's not going to happen anytime soon. you need the economy so slow down and need to get the fed involved. until you see that, no rotation. you have to have rate cuts before you get the rotation? no anticipatory moves? >> we think the economy will slow down. if you look at a lot of the surprise indices, they rolled right over. the economy is slowing down. now what you need to see is one more leg down in small caps, value, sickly cyclicality. they have so much leverage on the balance sheet, if you don't have those two things, they just can't work. >> i know, but if i know the fed is going to cut -- right. >> -- for one reason or another, do i have to wait? >> if the fed cuts 25 basis points, wait, kind of hang out,

that's really not going to do anything. >> how do you know it's going to be just once? >> because, if you listen to the fed, like, hey, inflation is coming down, the economy is still okay. why do they need to be aggressive? no indication they're going to be aggressive -- >> the labor market, as liz was pointing out, unemployment rate going above 4% may be a ringing of a bell that says, okay, we're on the clock, right? >> i any it's kind of faint. if you go to what powell said, it's cooled down, but it's still pretty strong. the wheels are not falling off the cart at this point in time. it's going to take a while for the fed to realize the economy is slowing. by that point in time, you'll have stocks trade down one more time and the fed will have to start get motion. it's growth, it's what's working, and will continue to work. >> liz? >> yeah.

i think there's two different time frames. i think maybe we're saying the same thing. the first time frame where i think this rally can continue, or at least the strength can be sustained between now and maybe mid august, when we look at jackson hole late august, september we starts to anticipate that first cut. i think there still can be up side here from a seasonality standpoint, from earnings season, if we get good earnings. i think that would be rewarded in the market, but then, come fall, if the fed is cutting -- i think that first cut will probably by 25 basis points. it's not even about the cut, just a message we're done hiking. that's all it is. >> i think they have already given that message, haven't they? >> yes, but they keep pulling it back. if things get much worse, we'll change it. i think that could solidify we're done hiking. at that point, economic data that schools too fast will become scary, and then the

market pulls back broadly. if we're where they're overvoo overvalued, that's the stuff that gets hit first. >> isn't the whole idea to keep the car moving? isn't it the idea that powell leaves you with repeatedly and underscored yet again today, the two-sided risks, and arguably the risk now the waiting too long rather than going too early, out, oversized? >> you're right. what he's saying is the risks are balanced. what i'm saying is the economy is slowing down. they've said this time and time again. we don't want to be too tight for too long. i think they'll cut later this year, but i think they'll be too slow. the market will move faster, the data will be moving a bit slower than the market, and the fed will be in third place.

the fed will once again have to play catch-up, but they still want to get inflation under control. until they can say firmly inflation is under control, they could be too aggressive. let's throw up the financials again. part of the reason the dow is hanging is with names like goldman sachs and jpmorgan. chris, why are those moving like that today? >> i think they're moving like that today, it's actually a pretty good environment for banks, for financials, if you look how the political winds are blowing, we'll have less regulation, and that was means more m&as and more ipos. >> speaking of what is happening s. leslie picker follows the e'? can you draw a line between the fed chair on the hill and these wall street banks that are doing

well? >> yeah, i think you can. bank investors have been watching very closely to see what happens. there's quite the boost, thanks to comments chair powell made about where regulators are at with basel game rules, they have been met with fierce the midst . >> statistic question we're continuing to try to make process is that have process. my view is the strongly held view of members of the board that we do need to put a revised proposal out for comment for some period. the reason is, you know, when there are broad and material changes, that's been our practice. >> one of the key challenges is getting three agencies -- the fed, the federal deposit insurance corporation and office of the comptroller of

currency -- all on the same page. however, that would take some time, meaning the finalization wouldn't even take place until early next year potentially, powell said, scott. the overall watering down, material changes, the timeline getting pushed out further, that's all good for bank stocks today. >> we appreciate that, leslie. thank you. capital markets related names like goldman sachs, they're obviously the once looking to the other side, and sees brighter skies, saying this is our opportunity. >> yeah. that might be current. i think that's what's driven them. if you look at the financial sector as a whole, second ch cheapest sector in the index. but you have to break it down into insurance, you've got to break it down into banks.

loo look at the banks, that's carried it for the past three months. capital markets activity, as the market has risen, and asset price versus risen, you have seen it have this resurgence in an area that was pretty dead for a long time. that has helped the bigger banks too. i think you should stick with banks. some what i'm hear from, later in earnings season, too, things from credit card companies, i want to hear what they're talking about spending activity. >> american express, if it's not the best-performing dow stock today, it's in the top three at this point. >> absolutely. i want to hear about the spending habits. will it confirm many of the concerns we have had heard recently about consumers pulling back, changing habits, being more discerning.

i want to hear that from the credit card companies, especially because we have seen this huge rise in credit card debt. is it concerning, have we seen a tickup? >> chris, do you think that big tech -- liz uses the word "frosty." these stocks have gone a long way, but maybe they're in the valuation dangers zone. those are my words, not liz's, obviously. >> think taking some profit makes sense, but the financials, that also makes sense to us, right? i have a different regulatory environment. i have good valuation. the credit cycle will be relatively benign. the curve could be steepening. and they are actually part of the momentum trade, right?

it's broadening out. there's a lot of good things to like. >> you took industrials off the "we hate them" list and put them on "we can deal with them, i guess." it doesn't sound like you have that much conviction. >> we don't like the reflation trade, but we also have a discipline t industrials have underperformed by 10% this year, around 10% last year. they're now technically oversold. a lot of the bad news is priced in. it just doesn't field like an underweight at this time. we think there's a great ability to go stock picking in the group, but at this point it's time to take some profits there, take some profits on the short side and move on. >> three, four weeks from now, if we're back together at this desk, are we saying how strong

earnings have been able to hang in there, or do we see some danger signs we need to be concerned about? >> i think earnings season we'll be fine. i don't think we'll see danger signs this quarter. a lot of times if there's a big company that knows something, they pre-report, so i don't think we're going to do that yet this quarter. >> not necessarily that, but just like, if they megacap stocks have kept running, that would fall into the danger zone. >> that would, yes, and there's a handful of names that could take sentiment in the other direction. the other dangerous thing i have heard, and not that dangerous, revisions are downward more than they have been, so maybe expectations are loftier than usual, but it's not as if we're expecting 20% earnings growth. i think we can eke out the 8%, 9%. >> i think the rich keep getting rich. i think a couple stocks will blow up, but if we see nike or

wall walgreens going on, if you see bad news penalized, we're still okay, but if it's not, that rotation is coming faster than we thought. we'll see you both soon. thank you. >> thank you. scott, less than 41 minutes in trading, oracle is poised wi. in a post on x, murph said his company decided to build a system to train ai models internally because, quote, our fundamental competitiveness depends on being faster than any other company. let's pivot to helen of troy. shares are having their worst day on record.

it plummeted nearly 28% after the company posted an earnings fiscal 2025. the company also slashing its full-year guidance. not a great macro setup there, scott? >> we'll see you in just a bit, seema. we're just getting started every of. evercore's roger altman is here with us. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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s&p and nasdaq pulling back a bit after hitting fresh intraday highs. fed chair powell signaling the central bank may be considering taking a less restrictive r too

economic activity. joining me now is roger altman. good to have you back. >> i appreciate any intro. fair enough. what did you take from the fed chair today? did he set the table for heart in year? >> i think the answer is yes. in particular, because, for the first time, at least with emphasis, we talked about the two-sided risks, namely that it's now at least roughly equally balanced, in terms of the risk that the fed waits too long to ease, and that the economy gets weaker than anybody would want, versus continuing to be restrictive and the economy becoming too strong despite it. so, i think that signals that the fed is now turning and the

market, as you know, is pricing in two rate cuts, the first one likely in september. of course, that's data dependent. we need to see, a paul said, continued progress on inflation. it will be the next metric that's relevant, but i think the market is probably right in terms of what it's pricing in. you can see that in open market interest rates, which is nor ticking lower than they have the ten years just right below 30, so we have the soft landing right in front of us that we all talked about for so many months. >> so, you think the market has it right, two cuts sounds good to you, despite the fact we have an election coming up. the fed chair was asked about it at least a couple times a day. it was on one side of the aisle, as you would probably expect that to be, where that

conversation would be dictated, but you think two is good? >> well, powell did say that inflation has to cooperate in the context of that expectation. so, pce, as you know, in the most recent month is running below 3% already, so, as long as the next set of inflation data continues to indicate progress on inflation, yes, i think two cuts is right. >> i mean, i know that the fed chair will never come out sand declare victory in the purest, most direct way. do you think they can, though? here's what he said today -- this is no longer an overheated economy. you can check that box, right? the labor market is balance in balance, right? you have to talk about the other side of the mandate, which not a lot of focus has been on.

you checked that. >> the likely direction is we loosing policy. that means they believe they're going to win on inflation, too. can they declare victory yesterday? >> as you know very well, scott, the fed is never going to actually declare victory in the literal sense of that, but look, if they pull this off, and they're in tract to do so, it's quite an amazing accomplishment. the fed will deserve a lot of credit, particularly since they missed it at the very beginning when they waited too long to begin to tighten in the face of what became tub bornly high inflation. this won't be an actual declaration of victory, but i think it will be implicit based on the path we're on, yes. >> what does this mean for the parks over the remainder of the year? is m&a going to pick up? will you be much more busy than you guys have been over the last 18 months? >> first of all, i don't know

how you get a better macroeconomic and global financial environment than we have right now. growth has slowed a bit, as you've talked about all day, but it's still steady. corporate profit outlook is good. inflation is trending slowly down. prospect for a rate cut is prettye to make new highs, and open market interest rates are falling. so, it's just a very positive market environment overall. in terms of m&a, m&a levels have been improving so far this year. dollar volume is up, although the number of transactions itself year over year is down, so gradual, steady impro. not sure whether the second half will continue that, though

probably it will. so, that transaction market is healing, so to speak. >> roger, you're a well-known voice in democratic circles. deputy secretary under president clinton, as our viewers probably know. should president biden step aside? >> i think today, scott, it's in the hands of the house and senate members who are democrats. if they decide to continue to support president biden as the nominee, i think he'll remain the nominee. if they indicate otherwise, at least a majority of them do, that they would rather have a change, maybe it will be hard for president biden to avoid stepping aside. at this very moment -- and it

could change any moment, i suppose -- it looks as those mortgage of them are sticking by president biden. >> what about you? are you, roger? >> well, i have a good relationship with president biden. i've never him a long time. i'm going to leave this in the hands of those who are elected officials who actually have to run for election, unlike me. as i just said, i think that's the relevant area of judgment. we'll see where it goes. right now it looks as though they're inclined to stick with him. >> are you confident he can win? >> he's in a hole now, no getting around it. there are some pretty dire polls in key battleground states as of the last day or two, but there's four months until the election. a lot can happen. i don't think you can reach a

judgment this early as to what will happen, but he is in a hole, and there's no doubt about that. >> roger, we'll leave it there. we'll see you soon. >> thank you. all the best. up next, the second half the your playbook. the fed's next moves are still hanging in the balance. gabriela santos is here to tell us how she's navigating this uncertainly, and the opportunities she sees ahead. we're right back.

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we're back. the s&p and nasdaq both hitting all-time highs today, as investors brace for the start of earnings season later in the week. joining mess at post 9 is gabriella santos. good to see you. >> good to see you. >> what is the best strategy right now? >> we've been getting asked i would say, two major types of questions. the first one centered where are we in the here and now? there's a macro ping-pong all year. the other is is ai overhyped? are there difficult ways to play it? different themes. ? in terms of the here and now, we find it very much a good strategy to not get up in this shifting narrative, but to look at a combination of data and see a slowdown happens in the economy, but not a tumbling at the happen, more of a normalization in the pails of

growth, normalization of inflation, and then in the long term, to pare some of the cyclical risk-on with long-term conviction. we don't think ai is overhyped. we don't think this is a fiscal moment, just a broadening out that's starting to happen. and one of the bin ones we sees is health care. we really want to make sure we don't forget other themes as well. >> it sounds like you think maybe it's too early -- we had a debate as to tart our program, and top-heavy market, whether it will finally broaden. i don't feel like you suggest that you really believe in this broadening. >> i think sometimes the broadening is interpreted as a rotation, as the early winners losing out at the expense of completely different themes.

i think what we mean by broadening is more of an expansion of the winners. at the same time that some of those large-cap, med acap tech turn to do well. think where i think it's important that we have seen some broadening of the ai beneficiary theme. what is the whole compute into data centers? is it overriding semiconductors that can do well? taiwan is up 33%. that's another way to play the compute power of data centers, as well as the hard infrastructure and energy required. utility is seeing some love again. >> i don't hear you making an argument away from the ai conversation. you're still talking about large pockets of the growth trade, just different levels of it -- not putting utilities into it, obviously, but primarily that's where you see the best opportunities still? >> yes, i think related to the

long-term they're, it's not cyclically moving up and down, but that includes companies found in the u.s. and overseas, companies that are found in your traditional tech and in utilities, in industrials. we're also making a related but separate argument to focus in on what's happening in health care. this is partly a see beneficiary of ai, and unrelated, it's also the other big disruptive theme that's happening, when is glp-1 drugs. i think that one is under-appreciated on performance and valuations. >> you think it's not the right time for value? >> not the right time to go all in on the big cyclical kind of investment. >> when is the right time? >> when growth is reaccelerating? we're at a phase where growth is good, but it's decelerating. especially in a sector related to the consumer. that's one pocket where we're

caution, consumer discretionary, consumer staples. that's the one that's seen a negative delta. >> do fed rate cuts solve that problem? or not necessarily? >> i think not necessarily. it puts a floor on consumption. and we maintain this pretty good enough job market, but it discuss -- and that's ultimately where we're speaking of, but the market cares about the delta. the consumer is one that we still have our eye on. it's not the time, we think, to make big cyclical investments like overweighting value over growth, regionals verse large banks. there will be a time for that. >> i'll ask you the same question i asked the guests at the top of the hour. did it live up to the hype?

are we say. >> i'm so excited we're getting back to the earnings part of the equation. three, four weeks from now, we'll talk with much more conviction about a certain broadening that's happening in earnings growth. that includes sectors that are tech related, ai related, but also other sectors that can get some of that boost or have bottomed enough. that's where we go back to utilities, industrials, as well as certain parts of energy. >> you think the megacap tech names are going to deliver something that backs up the moves they have already had in the tock stock names? >> i think we heard that great is not good enough. it has to be really, truly excellent, and a much more focus on, how much of all of this investment cost?

what is the return? and how much of the monetization have we already pulled forward? that's not a uniformly positive answer, but largely speaking, we do think it's quite reasonable to expect delivery, means pretty good double-digit pace of earnings growth. >> well, we'll start having this conversation i suppose, late this week when the bank, including the one you who, for, start reporting. >> that's right. thank you. >> thank you. seema mody is back with us. what are you seeing? >> coming up, a big move tied to robots. we'll explain which name, after this break.

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15 from the bell. back to seema mody for a look at the stocks she's watching. >> bp is on pace for its largest drop since 2023 after an impairment charge up to $2 billion for the second quarter, which lowers the refining margins. the stock is down over 4%. and return on investments still being worked out uipath is

cutting its workforce as part of a restructuring plan. >> seema, thanks so much. still ahead, bill ackman's pershing square is kicking off its road show. we're following that money with fresh cnbc reporting. we'll bring you the details, next.

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we're in the "closing bell" market zone. phil lebeau is tracking tesla for the longest winning streak in a year, and leslie pickering on pershing. nothing upsetting on the hill today. of course, there's a session tomorrow, buttite not expecting anything different. we're trying to -- it's kind of remarkable. they're trying to do a bunch of complaints, which is it's extreme concentration that allows most stocks to not be reflective of what the market is

doing. it's kind of hanging out, and priced for a generally -- and we probably will welcome the arrival of earnings season, when it looks like with the normal beat you'll have double-digit growth cpi, too this week. a favorable cpi? >> it seems like the fell requires a little more confirmation, that it's doing the right thing that's been a real benefit. so, yeah, i think it could increase or a market -- to a

sooner cut, yeah, the job market kind of falls apart phil, talk to me about the run that tesla has been on. quite impressive. in that run, the stock was up, a 13-day run. in this case it's up more than 44%. there's -- the big part of this move is when the key company reported the q2 results. that really added jewel. and you hear less chatter about that now. and then there's optimism about robo taxi, what will they tell

us on october 8th? we will get the company's q2 results. scott, back to you. over to you, leslie. the fun going on at $50 per share under the symbol psus. i'm told the listing date will be at the end of this month. the broader firm sold a broader -- and it will will a debut next year or the next. psus, will invest in 12 to 15 large-catch investment great free cash flow generative north

americans companies. how is it different? it's waiving management feels post-ipo. additional the company expects significant liquidity supported by the scale, name recognition and managers' broad following. they do differ from mutual funds. so it's not quite as liquid as mutual fund stock. it's interesting the words they use he's been pretty active on social media, and you feel like all of this plays together in certain respects. >> yeah, certainly a true test of how that can -- closed-in fund, it's the hedge fund model, in the sense i have this private fund charging pretty standard

fees, and then a closed-end vehicle doing something very, very similar, most likely, isn't charging that management fee for the first 12 months. so it's a very interesting test. we'll definitely follow it closely. >> we appreciate it, leslie. back to mike santoli. we're about to have the one-minute warning. s&p is up five. >> it looks like the market is making full use of the seasonal strength in the first part of july. i definitely feel as if the index has reach a bit of an extreme. it doesn't mean -- the most uneasy with the character of this market making any highs than otherwise you would not things probably should be be expected to work -- you

obviously have things like earnings season and, of course, the election starts to come into the equation. i'm not saying we're running out of up side, but it seems -- >> we have a new closing high for both of s&p and nasdaq. things will settle out, but it currently looks that way. we'll see you tomorrow. well, another record close for the nasdaq, let in part by tesla and nvidia. plenty of action under the surface. tesla is extending its streak to ten days. the action, though is getting started. welcome to "overtime." >> well will talk to t