if you think that boom is over, they're telling you it's not final trade. the momentum is there. >> we'll have a good last hour, because we're at the highs of the day, extending the record highs for major averages, certainly for the nasdaq and s&p. we've got goldman sachs portfolio manager. i will see you at 3:00. "the exchange" is now. ♪ ♪ looking forward to that scott, thank you very much. i'm kelly evans. welcome to "the exchange." are we at an inflection point for the consumeer? they're choosing more care anywhere they spend, which is not helen of troy which we learned yesterday. they lost more than 30% of market value. consumers are pushing back on big brands and high prices, which is leading them to walmart, whose record highs might suggest even more broad weakness. this comes as jay powell said going slower may allow the fed to go further. but the fed has to cut this year

to keep that consumer and small companies afloat according to our guest. consumer is still traveling. wyndham hotels and resorts betting on that to continue. the ceo will join us live ahead with what he's seeing. and then there's housing. if you're not buying a home because it's too expensive right now, you can still buy into the housing trade. we have a unique way to do that. before all of that, though, let's start with today's markets. mike santoli has the honors. >> yeah, kelly, broad market in levitation mode. the s&p 500, crossing above the 5600 level for the first time. it's yet again ratifying that all bit of wall street wisdom, never short a dull market. the index has been dull the past two days. minimal moves, inkru mental new highs but resumed the same angle we had in the first quarter. so obviously up 17.5% on year-to-date basis. it's a very good year, acting like a bull market.

however, the critique is it's been concentrated in those gains. if you look at the nasdaq 100, which has surmounted the 20,000 level as of last week, that's where most of the gains have been. you see since that april low, that pullback the broad market had, not a lot of progress. now, it's hovering, you know, above those levels. it's not necessarily breaking down, but to your point about the consumer, consumer and industrial stocks have stalled out. and yet, today there's a little bit more broad participation. everyone looking at the bond market. jay powell in his second day of testimony today, pretty much kind of confirming the dovish general takeaway to the current stance of the fed. and you see it looks like a rolling over of the ten-year treasury, cracking below 4.3%, as we have that auction also. >> would you call it a significant rollover, mike? i'm always trying to jump on some of these trends?

>> it's almost on the verge of significant. it looks like it's capped, but it's been at this level it's crisscrossed so many times. i don't think you want to say it's in freefall. >> michael, thank you. the s&p 500, the nasdaq hitting new highs as jay powell keeps rate cut hopes alive. in day two of his testimony to congress, my next guest expects feds to ease rates in september and fed. darrell, good to have you. you think they're going in the election month? >> i think they will. if you include tomorrow's cpi report, you'll get three more readings and two more pce deflators, which the fed cares more about, which the latest readings are 2.6, a stone's throw away from their range of 2 to 2.5. so i think they'll make that

first move in september. they also keep it away from the november election, right? so you don't have to worry about that being the argument. and then we still think they follow through november. the november fed moving is after the election, not before. >> true. all the speculation happens going into that. even now they're under pressure. you got that vibe with some of the questions the past couple of days with those incumbents who hoped rate cuts would help them keep office. >> i think that's true. i think there's other, you know, political winds blowing and brewing there that will be more important than interest rates. what people forget about inflation, i think it's really important, inflation is a price increase over a time period certain, month over month, quarter over quarter, year over year. if prices are only going up at 2%, 3%, 4%, they're still going up. so consumers that are having a difficult time paying 7%, 8% for mortgages or 15%, 16% for auto loans or 22% on their credit

cards are still feeling the pressure. and we see that in the consumer data. >> let's talk about what you're doing, all of the debate and discussion has been around do you lean into the momentum trade with tech and ai orlean against it? you seem to be moving to neutral. you're not underweighting it, but saying maybelline lean back little bit. why? >> what's important and what people aren't paying attention to today, if i look at all-time highs on the s&p, the reality if i go below the surface, the number or number of members of the s&p 500 that are above their 200 day moving average are at a new low for 2024. so what does that suggest? it suggests breadth is very narrow here again. we've known that for some time. but it continues for that. so even though you've got the critical few powering on, the reality is they're still going to put up great earnings growth

this quarter. but we just find there's other value in places like industrials, materials, we think health care can be a good value and be a little defensive at reasonal valuations. and energy is our favorite sector at this point. >> valuations look super compelling. i thought it was interesting, you talked about a defensive tilt, even though you think the economy is going to reaccelerate in the fall, is that right? >> yeah. look, we had 1.4% q1 gdp growth. we're on pace to track at 1.5% for q2. the second half looks a little challenged. i think those higher rates and the sustained inflation grinds a little on the consumer and on spending. housing looks like it's weakening a little bit. so i think the second half weakens a little bit. enough to throw the economy into recession? probably not. but it's not going to turn around and reaccelerate, even if we get the two fed cuts. >> you don't think it's going to

turn around even with the fed cuts? >> i don't think economic growth is going to reaccelerate. i think you're going to still stay at this down shifted trend to around 1.5% to 2% growth. by all accounts it meets this definition of soft landing, no landing, so we avoid the recession. but again, that's priced into the baseline here. so if things continue to slow and soften from here, and you maintain, you know, some level of inflation, i think we're going to test the consumer and the labor market, and those are the two lirnchpins for the markt to go higher. >> energy, maybe health care, that sort of thing. very interesting. darrell, thanks for your time. appreciate it. ten-year notes up for auction at the top of the hour. rick santelli is here with reaction and pro-action, rick. >> yes. well, it's like we're in an

alternate universe. auctions of late have been going extremely well. this was no exception. 39 million and reopened tens, meaning we're adding one issue originally created in may of this year. so technically, these are nine-year, 10-month securities. the yield on those 39 billion tens, 4.276. where is the one issued market? a basis point high er 4.286. so the government is a seller, it priced quite well. if you look at all the internals to the auction, every single one of them is strong. i'll point out a couple that really caught my eye on the direct bidders. those were large pensions and insurance companies that bode direct. 20.9%, that equals october of last year. but to find a higher number than 20.9%, you have to go back to october of '22. and the dealer takedown, well,

the ten auction average is 16%. think buffet here. the customers cleared the buffet table because the dealers only took 11.5%. that's the least the dealers have taken since august of '23. so no matter how you slice it, a on this particular auction. you can see yields are dipping a little bit, but don't look for a whole lot more potentially. 4.25% represents value, just like 4.5% above us. it has been holding in that range, even though the auction went well, we have to continue to monitor. tomorrow, we'll complete the auction process and the coupons of 119 billion with 22 billion reopened 30-year bonds. kelly, back to you. >> rick, do you think it's weird that we're talking about the need for fed rate cuts when markets keep making new highs or are stocks making new highs because we're talking about a couple of rate cuts?

>> earnings have been good. ai has opened a whole new spectrum of potential future activity and the buyers have followed quite quickly. but i do believe that it is a tough discussion to have to think that conditions are so tight, while stocks are making historic highs. on the other hand, if you look at interest rates and what they're accomplishing, there's many areas of the economy where high rates aren't doing what they're supposed to do. they're not really aiding housing. in many ways, they're not really a big part of the energy story. but my own opinion, i think the fed is looking for any type of reason to lower rates, and i think that the labor market might present that exact issue. i personally don't think that the market is arguing for rate cuts. but then again, i'm not the chairman. >> rick, we appreciate it. meanwhile, fed chair powell saying in his testimony yesterday there's no question

that higher rates are making it harder to buy homes in the short term. that point is showing up in the data today, as demand continues to drop. diana olick is here with more. >> kelly, mortgage rates haven't moved much in the past few weeks, but demand for refinances dropped for the fourth straight week, despite the fact that homeowners are sitting on a vast amount of home equity. applications to refinance a home loan dropped 2% last week compared with the previous week. and there was another adjustment made last week for the fourth of july holiday. so, demand is still 28% higher than it was the same week one year ago when rates are seven basis points higher. 28% may sound like a big jump, but it's coming off very small numbers. in fact, refinance demand is stille 78% lower than it was prepandemic. home openers were sitting on a collective $17 trillion in equity at the end of the first quarter of this year. in just one year, they gained

$1.5 trillion collectively, or $28,000 per borrower. but today's higher rates make refinances too expensive. the average rate for conforming loans dropped a little bit to 7%, from 7.03%, not much, though. applications for a mortgage to buy a home rose 1% for the week but were 13% lower than the same week a year ago. mortgage rates haven't moved this week, but that is likely to change tomorrow when we get the latest read on the consumer price index. the question is, which direction? >> exactly. do we finally break down consider ably or hold at a high level. remind me how the inventory is factoring into this. we're seeing more inventory come into the market locally. >> yeah, be careful using the word "a lot." we're seeing some inventory come into the existing home market. we're still barely at a three-month supply. six months is considered balance. that's on the existing side.

we are seeing a lot more new inventory come on, that is from the buildings. we're at a nine-month supply. when you combine those two and the share that the builders have versus existing home market, we're still only at a total four-month supply of homes for sale, so still very much a seller's market. >> diana, thank you. high rates and high prices continue to keep buyers on the sidelines. the average sale price for a new home was over $400,000 in may. i remember when $417 was the jumbo level. at the same time, the average cost for material to build a home is also rising to $109,000, up from $105,000 a year ago, and that number was up 35% from prepandemic levels. if all of that is keeping you from buying or refixing an actual home, you can still buy into the housing trade. bank of america released a report on who builds a house. let's bring in my next guest for more on that. great to have you here.

what jumps out to you? i saw ll, lumber liquidators, may be headed to bankruptcy. >> i think the story for the who builds the house report is here. after three years of unprecedented inflation in terms of the cost to build a house, in 2020 to 2022, we saw some cost relief in 2023. the cost to build a house was down year over year. and that's actually continued into 2024, as we have seen lumber costs more recently start to fall. so there might be some relief we havecoming up here in terms of the overall cost to build. you've seen some pricing pressure in some of the building products categories. >> tell me about owens corning. >> sure. i think in this more challenging macro environment that we have seen with slowing housing starts, and still challenged

repair market, we think it's still the best company. evaluation is very attractive, it's on the low end of other building product companies. but then the end markets that they serve are a little less macro sensitive. so roofing is their largest segment. it's a high quality business that we don't think they get credit for in their valuation. what drives roofing demand is driving by replacement demand from the existing home market and also storm demand, which was very favorable last year. we were worried that we wouldn't get as strong as a year this year. but it is turning out that storm demand has been strong. a lot of hail damage in the midwest and texas. and the last segment that is really large for owens corning is insulation. insulation for a house continues to rise in the u.s. because

there's building code changes. mostly related to higher energy efficiency standards. >> the amazing foam spray insulation. let me take a step back. i thought maybe post pandemic after the rush to buy houses there would be prolonged demand for housing materials and so forth. turns out i was wrong about that, that the big boom happened at the same time people were buying homes and is now trickling off. just talk a little bit about those dynamics. how much are people working on home construction projects now versus the past. >> so i think you characterized it well. we've had soft demand for repair and remodel. i think now it's about a year and a half for six straight quarters of negative retail sales on the building materials side. so part of it there was demand where a lot of consumers shifted

spending away from other categories into home improvements during 2020 and 2021. but another piece of this is a fair amount of the large discretionary projects are financed. whether it's with home lines of credit or cashout refies. so the cost of that capital, the new cost of accessing that is higher. so we think that's put a little pressure on it. but also just the cost of doing any type of kitchen and bath remodel or any other type of home improvement project, it's more expensive. there's been 30%, 40% inflation. >> so i can see two catalysts going again. one is that the input prices fall, we talked about the fall in the price of lumber. the other could be fed rate cuts. to go back to the point about whether this should be something for investors, do you think now is the right time to get in on this trade? why would now be the right opportunity for an owens corning

or some of these other names? >> we have definitely be selective within the building product category. the reason we highlight owens corning, we think it's a little less sensitive to the macro pressures. for the second half of the year, we expect a sluggish outlook for repair and remodel spend until there's more visibility on either rate cuts or just a stronger consumer backdrop, which hasn't happened yet. >> well said. thank you for joining us today. learned a lot. coming up, the nato summit underway. the president hoping to prove to world leaders and his own party and maybe to george clooney that he should run for re-election. this as a list of democrats who are calling for him to step down grows. we'll speak with two former senators about what's at stake and what they think he should do. consumers are spending on travel. we'll speak with the ceo of wyndham about what area he's bullish on and expanding in. "the exchange" is back after this.

>> this is "the exchange" on cnbc.

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telling m nbc's "morning joe" that biden is beloved and respected in the party but stopped short of saying she thought he should stay in the race. >> it's up to the president to decide if he's going to run. we're all encouraging him to make that decision, because time is running short. >> she went on to say she encouraged congressman to deal with the nato conference before voicing their represents. but represent cheryl and congressman bennett who warned of biden's inability to beat trump. and not just politicians, either. george clooney saying, "i love joe biden, but we need a new nominee." joining me now to discuss is kay bailey hutchinson, former u.s. ambassador to nato and heidi hidecamp. senator hutchinson, let me start

with you. what do you think biden ought to do? >> well, i certainly think that we need to get through this incredibly 75th anniversary. i think we need to go forward. president biden needs to make his own decision. i think all of the democratic advisers are telling him that. and i think what all of our allies are looking for is unity in america and strength in america. >> and so just take that a step further. i mean, the stakes are quite high. we have the wars in russia and ukraine, israel and palestine, all these challenges to deal with. what would normally be happening with the u.s. president versus what you think is actually happen thing week. >> well, i think they're all trying to pull together a united front of nato, supporting ukraine, making sure that everyone understands this is in all of our interests that ukraine win its own sovereignty, its freedom. i think the strength of the

message is that we are all unified. this isn't one country that is speaking, it is 32 countries, and america is the leader. and i think the -- everyone is rallying around for that unity to show putin we are not going away. and the sooner that is clear, then the sooner that war is going to end. >> all right. senator, when you lost clooney, it's over. although there might be some personal back and forth at play here, speaking of israel. in all seriousness, for the actor to put out a big op-ed, it's going to galvanize support and contribute to this ground swell. even pelosi is not saying he should stay in. politico is saying watch her for the next moves. this is pretty close to people lining up to say maybe it's time to rethink this year. >> i don't know about that it's everybody lining up. i think kay's right, this is a decision that only the president

of the united states can make. he's going to either decide whether he stays in this race. but what you're seeing is this idea that there isn't everybody rallying around that decision. there's a lot of external advice coming at him right now, saying maybe he ought to rethink whether you stay in this race. you know, when you look at nato, well, we elect not only the president of our country, but we elect the leader of the world. obviously, having them in our country, watching our media will raise a lot of concerns i think among nato countries, because president trump has a different attitude about the transatlantic relationship. and so there's going to be a lot of discussion, a lot of talk behind the scenes. but i think at the end of the day, if joe biden wants to be the nominee for president of the united states of the democratic party, he will be. but it will not be with the ascent of every person who has been a good donor or a good

democratic loyalist going back a long way. >> but for instance, senator murray of washington, who just a couple months ago was upset with those who suggested the president might not be totally with it and called the white house to alert them to "the wall street journal"'s attempt to do reporting on this, came out with a statement saying we were not told the full story. now we're seeing the full story of what's going on here. a lot of people are looking back over the past year to his closest handlers saying how much have you shielded us from the truth of what's going on to continue to hold the office? >> you know, there's a lot of trust that i think needs to be rebuilt between the white house and certainly the campaign and the democratic party. whether they're doing that this week, whether they're doing it appropriately, time will tell. but at the end of the day, the democratic party sees a much greater threat in re-electing donald trump, who is a pathological liar and somebody who will dismantle our

international alliances with the simple wave of a hand that they do electing joe biden. so i think if joe biden decides to stay in this race, there will be a rallying around him and a huge effort to get him re-elected. >> senator hutchinson, let's go back to the broader context with russia in particular. trump is fond of saying he never would have let this war break out, he would have found some back channel way to make a deal, what have you. for those eager to see this brought to a close and to not continue to see russia entrench on the borders of europe, what's the right policy move here? which president should we entrust with something so important? >> i think we have to see what each candidate is doing. but the important thing is that we've got to show strength. we've got to show resolve of the whole of nato. this is the time when we all have a risk. it is an umbrella that we are trying to put over the risk of europe and north america.

and if putin gets by with taking ukraine, he will not stop. i know when i was at nato, that he told his people and his military that he wants to re-create the soviet union. so we should be clear eyed about that. we should go absolutely all-in for ukraine, because the ukrainians are fight thing war, and they need the help with arms to keep their sovereignty. and we must not flinch. we must be united, and i think this summit is going to show that america and all of our allies are all in. but i think now we've got to make sure that we stay the course, that we defeat obviously president putin with the ukrainian forces and the help of our arms. and then we will have the freedom to continue to operate in our western culture.

and otherwise, we're going to be in a war in europe with our troops on the ground. and that's not where we should be in 2024 or 2025, 2026. >> absolutely. incredibly unpleasant to contemplate. we'll leave it there for now. thank you both for your time today. coming up, it's bulls versus bears when it comes to this media and entertainment stock. one analyst saying it's a top pick yesterday. another gave it a downgrade today. shares up 65% this year. we'll reveal it to you next. plus, more clues on the consume we are pepsi, delta and conagra coming up. stay with us. "the exchange" is back in a couple.

welcome back t rally today, enough to send the s&p above 5600 for the first time.record well. ten-year, at 4.28. the senior biden team, including the campaign chair will brief senators during a special caucus lunch tomorrow. you can see biden re-election

slip slightly today. the movers, a wild ride for tesla, shares were down 2% after their share of electric car market in the u.s. fell below 50% ever. they're back in the green now, up 1%. and they're on track for their 11th consecutive positive day. and next, spotify. morgan stanley made the bull case for the stock on "the exchange" yesterday. he sees a long way ahead for the growth. but red burn came out with a downgrade to sell. consensus is simply forecasting too much growth. finally, carvana, popping 5% today on the heels of upgraded needham, calling it a secular growth story. the shares are up just a modest 285% over the past year. now to leslie picker for a cnbc news update. you mentioned the nato summit and showed joe biden

joining world leaders for the so-called family photo this afternoon. meanwhile, the u.s. and germany announced in a joint statement they would begin deploying long-range missiles in germany starting in 2026. the announcement comes as biden has worked to reassure nato of the united states' commitment to the alliance. the israeli military has ordered palestinians in gaza city to evacuate and head south as it presses ahead with a fresh offensive that has killed dozens over the past 48 hours. it comes as mediators from the u.s., egypt, and qatar met in doe hoe for a push for a cease-fire and prisoner exchange. amazon says it reached its goal of getting all of its electricity from clean energy seven years early. the tech giant said it invested billions into solar and wind projects to reach that goal, but some critics said how amazon made that determination was too lenient, because the solar and wind farms didn't directly power the company. amazon aims to reach net zero by

200. kelly, back to you. >> leslie, thank you very much. coming up, pack your suitcases. global travel spending is set to exceed a record breaking $11 trillion this year. we'll get a firsthand look at how demand is fairing with the ceo of wyndham hotels when we come back. join us on "the exchange." do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. call coventry direct to learn more. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. our friend sold their policy to help pay their medical bills, and that got me thinking. maybe selling our policy could help with our retirement. i'm skeptical, so i did some

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welcome back to "the exchange." fourth of july travel was one for the record books this year. more than 10 million people passed through tsa checkpoints between wednesday the 3rd and sunday the 7th. aaa expected nearly 71 million people would hit the road last week. how did hotels fair? let's ask the ceo of windham hotels and resorts. geoff, great to see you again. welcome. >> thank you very much for having us back, kelly. i am here at spartanburg, south carolina on a very warm and sunny day. with phillip cox, the ceo of cox universal, who is opening our very first right behind me, the echo suites by wyndham. it is our fastest growing new construction trend. we have 270 of these hotels

that -- >> we'll come back. if you give it enough seconds, it will come back. i'm confident in that. echo standing for economy hotel opportunity. so extended stay and corporate travel, geoff, is this where the demand is, and how does this stack up with the experience prepandemic? >> well, prepandemic, it's -- [ inaudible ] -- significantly. if we look at 2043 extended stay occupancy, it was up a full 11 points higher than it was last year. and it's up 12 points year-to-date higher than the rest of the industry. and a lot of that is being driven by the most historic piece of legislation this country has ever seen since the eisenhower administration, and that's the infrastructure bill that is impacting so many communities like here in the carolinas. the carolina corridor has

received $9 billion of money from the federal government, money that is yet to be spent. but it's by developers who are building hotels like this. >> we talked to you and some of the other hotel operators. so this chip spending in these massive factories, energy, s infrastructure, what is it actually? >> it's roads, bridges, tunnels, projects that haven't broken ground yet. it's another $300 billion of -- $3 billion of spending on 24 identified chip factories across the country that are just beginning to start. now, there are 1.8 million companies out there contracting for their workers looking for affordable accommodation that's new, that's clean, that's beneficial to long-term stays. we checked in two guests this morning who are here for seven

months. it's a much different piece of the industry. this is the fastest growing brand we've ever had. 270 signed and executed. can't build these fast enough. >> maybe this is quibbling on the edges. shares are down about 10% this year, they're still off of 2021 highs, not dra matt cmadramatic. airline stocks are struggling a little bit. what do you attribute that to? >> what our investors continue to tell us, in our stock, be patient. remember, economy, scale, upper mid scale, we were the first segment in this industry to recover. in 2019, it's still very strong and growing since then. but yes, there is some revenge travel, obviously, that's run its course. you're seeing a lot of other options out there. obviously, cruises we talked

about. there was a record weekend here when i landed on jetblue on sunday. but our travel is drive-to travel. and that travel -- the demand is out there. and there's no better segment that represents that demand than the infrastructure in terms of what it create. >> this is one to have most important segments to look at what you're talking about and understand what it will mean going forth. this is the first time since i choice dropped its hostile takeover bid. do you feel like a free man again? are you worried about someone else looking around the corner? >> well, look, i mean, we are -- we are -- it's been six years since we went public. we're the largest hotel franchiser with over 9,200 hotels and 95 countries. we have report pipeline growth, record unit growth. we're opening more hotels than any other hotel company in the

industry. and yeah, we're excited. we're looking to continue to grow. there's no better brand that's growing faster. >> listen, it does look very nice. nicer than what i'm dealing with at home. geoff, thank you for your time. hope to check back in soon. >> thanks for having us on, kelly. speaking of vacations, citi out with a note today examining excessive heat. they're saying a warmer summer could mean fewer summertime takeoff slots. citi saying spirit and frontier are the most exposed to hottest days with alaska and delta the least. he favors buy rated alaska over southwest. wow, that's quite a statement. coming up, it's that time of year where we're revealing cnbc's top states for business.

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welcome back. cnbc is getting ready to reveal this year's top state for business. ahead of that big reveal, let's take a look at how we got here and the changes to methodology this year. scott cohen is in the winning state already. >> as you know, kelly, there's always now a tradition in the 17 years we've been doing this. som we have ten categories of competitiveness. this is what has not changed in the years we have been doing this. we weight them according to how they're being talked about in state economic development, marketing materials. this year, for the first time, infrastructure rises to the top. it's a race to rebuild american supply chains, fueled by massive

government money. we look at roads, bridges, ports, and airports. shovel-ready sites ready for development, broad band, and which states are most sustainable. >> businesses are increasingly looking at climate risks. >> this year, infrastructure is worth 17% of a state's score. that's followed by workforce, which states are meeting the need for skilled workers. which states have the best economy. where is the top quality of life. we look at the cost of doing business, technology, and innovation, including which states are leading the way in artificial intelligence. >> the state that's actually investing and allowing for people to go either into industry or into government to be able to help make a difference is the state that i think will succeed. >> we measure business friendliness. we grade education, access to capital, and the cost of living. we do not measure which states have the strongest current, but

maybe we should. here is anotherdiabolical stop states him. the cure, the cure. what does that mean? more about our study and how we do this at our website. the top state revealed tomorrow, kelly. >> geography is not my strong suit, but i'm taking you this is a state that's hard to find kayaking? >> oh, that would be diabolical. it might be. but you can find kayaking in most states. >> i guess. >> it's just that this one has really strong currents. >> our viewers are so smart. i'm sure someone will recognize something. scott, don't fall out. >> i'll try not to. coming up, pepsi hasn't missed on the bottom line once in the past 20 quarters, that's five years. the options imply a 6% move in

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welcome back to "the exchange." we have the action, story and trade on pepsi, delta and conagra today, all getting set to report. jeff killburg, great to see you again. pepsi is down six of the last seven weeks, as concerns of the strength of snacks continue. we've talked with analysts on this program about these concerns, and we've done a deep dive if they have to cut prices to bring shoppers back. with what happened with helen of troy and already with some other names, i'm a little worried about this one. what would you do? >> i think that anxiety provides opportunity. yes, you're right, down 4% year to date, down a little over 10%, this has been a consumer staples

by and large ignored by investors. you could see a consumer staple like pepsi come back in vogue. a forward p/e is historic loy trading pretty cheap. the last five-year ears has been about 24. to you'd like the options market, because those are coming out tomorrow morning. >> i'm watching the aisle to see if there's more discounts on fritos and ruffles, and all of their products. if pepsi doesn't do well, i think they're going to tack more son than they have. you're slightly right. if you think about the three names we're decision today, they are bet weathers, they are important. this is what the midwest in chicago, this is what's important to the u.s. economy. i think it's critical to look at the names, even if you're not trading them.

>> conagra, some people seeing it sometimes as a weak are port portfolio, it's already down seven of the past eight week. will private label entrench. would you be a buyer? >> i would not be a buyer. the simple reason, the past five years, it has gone nowhere. if you see a tilt back in the consumer staples, i don't know if i get too excited about canned meat. but from conagra's perspective, if you have it, you can hole, but the moving day average is up, that would provide some short-term resistance, but i want to put my money elsewhere from a consumer staple perspective. it's oats they're darned beer they're a helen of troy or a

breakout candidate like a walmart f when that breaks out compared to the luxury psych the, it's usually a bad sign. >> that's a great point. use that $30 level, if it vaults above, you could be a buyer, but i'm staying away from it. >> it's down 7% should help to insulate this stock. would you buy delta here? when you think about united, american combined, those two mark caps are still left. i like own own the biggest name here. you noted earlier in the show, when you talk about the record travel. we just saw on sunday over 3 million people check through

tsa. that record travel is still occurring. they're i think that's finally paying off. i this is the one name we own in our portfolio, because we think it's the best of the airlines. we have an exclusive -- gotta go, jeff. still staying away from nvidia in? >> we still own some puts. we could tack more about my tesla long, but nonetheless, i think we're seeing the market, if you see this rotation, profit taking out of nvidia, i think you'll see market move more into the cyclical names. we haven't seat it yet, but i think it's coming.

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