broa broadcom has been a mixed bag. >> right. the fed rate cuts may be helping propel that. steve sent me his outlook. he's moving back to lean out of the big market cap names. >> rates go down maybe now. thanks for watching "power lunch." >> we'll see you in a little bit. closing belle starts right now. >> i'm scott wapner from post 9. this make or break hour begins with the rate cut rally. stocks extending record highs as fed chair powell makes the case for lowering the rates. most are wondering how long it can all last. we will ask our experts over the final stretch. scorecard, 60 minutes in regulation. dow is good for near .62%. nasdaq is up by nearly 1%. tech is good today.

materials, they're among the best sectors. the semiconductor index hitting a new high. how about apple? up for a seventh day in a row. we'll have a report on that coming up as well. takes us to the talk of the tape. the market move with tomorrow's inflation report and coming bank earnings. let's talk strategy with dan greenhouse of solas alternative asset management. do you think i framed this right? a rate cut rally? over the last couple of days the chair was pretty dovish on the hill and continues to set the table for what's going to happen in, we think, a couple of months. >> yeah, i think that's right. i don't think he said anything new, but it's -- from the equity market standpoint it's always nice to hear the federal reserve chairman tell you the types of things you want to hear like the labor markets loosening up and the odds of us hiking rates are going up. that's effectively what he said yesterday and today. >> the labor market is, you know, sees weakness.

>> there is weakness. >> and that's the thing, right? they've been solely focused on inflation for this whole run over more than 18 months. it's a dual mandate. >> yeah. >> and now they have to worry about the labor market getting away from them. you have the unemployment rate at 4.1. you tondon't want that to get t the point where he can't control it so he's talking about the two-sided risk. it was the principle risk of going too soon and cutting. now maybe the bigger risk is waiting too long to do it. >> my friend michael gabea noted it as the return of the dual mandate. now with inflation on track according to the fed to be back within the realm of what they deem acceptable over the next couple of months, you have to pay attention to the other side of your mandate. i would takethe fed quote, unquote, controlling it, we put way more faith in the fed

than we should. >> no. my point is they've gotten this far and they sound close. >> yeah. >> to declaring victory. >> it's always darkest before the dawn. >> they sound close to be able to declare victory. they don't want to mess it up. >> the point i've made with you numerous times, i'll repeat again, is we cannot declare a soft landing until they've reduced interest rates by some amount, which we can discuss another time, without having caused a recession or a recession occurring simultaneously. yes, things have gone better than i thought and predicted 12, 18, 24 months ago. i'm losing track of how long it's been at this point. but the idea that they can cut rates, let's call it 100, 150 basis points, and glide path the economy with a soft landing is effectively what the market is betting on but their ability remains somewhat of an open question. the odds are they're going to. again, my point is just to repeat, until they've done it, i don't think we can declare anything. >> i keep hearing people say,

well, the market's due for a correction. >> the market's always due for a correction. >> does it feel like a correction's going to come? i mean, it's only due for a correction because you really haven't had one. that's the only reason you can say -- >> that's right. >> -- make the case for one, because we haven't had one. >> we've been doing this for 20 something years now. any time the market is going up, someone's coming around telling me it's due for a correction. what i would add is i keep coming back to the divergence between the s&p market cap and the s&p equal weight. the market cap makes new highs as you mentioned now back north of -- now north of 5600. the equal weight's traded sideways since early may. there's a lot of stuff under the headline that is down 15, 20% from the highs. a lot of the restaurant stocks, throw up a charter mcdonald's, starbucks are two of the biggest names. home builders have had a real tough go of it. le some of the better performing

momentum names like deckers have really run into trouble here. under that headline there's been some pain. it's just that that ai trade has continued uninterrupted. that's holding up the bigger market cap weighted amount. you've had sideways down weighted -- >> does that pain on the surface knock the patient on its back at some point or is there just enough strength in the rest of the, to keep this market going? >> listen, for some reason tomorrow if we found out that all of this was double ordering, let's say, and nvidia, apple, meta, the tangential names, yeah, the market index would fall, of course. at the end of the day if the economy continues to do what we think it's going to do, by we, let's say the consensus, earnings do what they're expected to do the next couple of months, then you'll find some equilibrium, the equal weight

can begin moving higher again even if that happens. that said, i will repeat, i see nothing, i've not said -- solas or i are not a great tech investor, i've seen nothing that says there's some immediate worry to be concerned about. >> do you think that earnings -- earnings expectations are too optimistic given the economy is clearly showing signs of slowing? if you look at any number of data metrics it will suggest that. o the market is generally too optimistic and into any given earnings season expectations come down. that's a perfectly normal thing to happen. when earnings season happens we end up beating anywhere between 2 and 5% depending on what time

frame you want to look at. i don't see any reason this earnings season is not going to be any different. >> when is the rest of the market going to start playing ball here? >> some of the portions of the market are doing okay. we know this. even if you move below the apple and tesla's of the world -- >> i'm not talking about growth trade, semis, software, more cyclical areas of the market that have not performed nearly as well as the growth trade as megacap tech, when does that start? >> with the caveat there's always stocks going up and down. >> we know that. you know what i mean. >> i do know what you mean. i think the answer is when rate cuts start happening, presumably later this year. >> let me ask you this. why do certain parts of the market move in anticipation of fed activity, whether it's cuts, hikes, what have you? the market is a discounting mechanism, we say it all the

time. it moves ahead of expected events. >> sure. >> six to nine months is the conventional thought of things. >> not always accurate. >> sure. why in this case if we know rate hikes are coming likely in the next couple of months is that not working except for today? today doesn't -- >> one day doesn't matter. >> right? >> yeah. having not put a ton of thought into that question for now -- >> because i just asked it. >> i just heard your first question -- the question for the first time now. i think that the answer probably has something to do with the fact that for 12 month we're lucy and the football here, we're told rates are coming down, inflation is normalizing, you had the bump in the first quarter. i think there's some element, at least based on the conversations i had with people on the street, some element of, yeah, yeah, yeah, i'll believe it when i see it, now there is -- we're coalescing around the idea that we call it the september meeting that you might get your first

rate hike, doesn't mean you're getting a 2004 reverse style where you get rate cuts in perpetuity. in some quarters september is go time. i will counter that with i speak to plenty of people who when i talk about something along these lines say why are they cutting at all? yeah, the unemployment rate is up. a lot of that is immigration flows, pushing up the unemployment rate. there is a lot of -- >> they're cutting because they're confident it's some degree and they'll get even more so before they actually make the move that inflation is getting back to 2%, right? pc's at 2.6. >> pc is at 2.6, on their way lower. the count is saying they're not going to wait until it gets lower. he reiterated it earlier. >> yes, he did. >> things seem to be operating more or less okay. the economy is not too hot. the economy is not too cold. yeah, the labor market is

weakening. inflation is too hot to begin cutting rates. what's the rush for september? why not wait for december, early next year, especially in the context of an election when you want to take yourself out of the equation so to speak. >> maybe that uncertainty is why people continue to buy megacap tech stocks like apple which is going for the seventh straight record close. >> they keep working because they're doing much better than anything else. everyone has made this point with you for years now. they've had better growth, earnings, revenues than mostly speaking the rest of the market. >> steve coukovac is joining us break it all down. it's not like apple's fundamentals all of a sudden got 180 degrees better. >> no. >> this stock has started running really when we were sitting at wwdc on campus. >> yeah. that's exactly right. that's why we're watching this potential record run for apple,

scott. today could be the seventh record high close in a row if they end at 231.84. apple hasn't had a streak like that, by the way, since march of 2012. shares are up 20% in the past month and that's, of course, since wwdc. it's been outperforming the other mag 7 stocks except for tesla, of course. we know what happened there. it turns out apple just needed to prove it had a viable ai play to get investors buying again after the stock lagged behind its peers for so much of the year. the question now though, scott, will ai drive more iphone sales? let me give you one point. piper sandler analysts said apple is planning to ship up to 100 million iphone 16s by the end of this year. that would be 10% or more than it shipped last year. not to mention services growing by double digits in recent quarters helped by the app store recovering from a post pandemic

v slump, scott. >> get results a few weeks ago? >> august 1. yeah, just three or four weeks from now. >> that's going to be a big moment as it always is. >> i'll be there. >> you'll be in the middle of that. >> steve could he vac, thanks for that. let's bring in jason snipe and stephanie link of hightower. both own apple. stef, it's one of your largest if not your largest position. >> yes, it is. it's about 9% of my entire portfolio so it is very large. i added to it back in may when sentiment couldn't have been any worse. people thought it got to 165, it was going to 130. you had downgrades all over the place. you had numbers coming down. very little support and i think that all reversed. yeah, wwdc, but i think you're starting to get some other things, like you're starting to hear asian channel checks that iphones are finally stabilizing there china. we have one more bad quarter of china iphone sales in my opinion

and then you have super easy comparisons as well. then of course you do have the ai story. you have the iphone refresh cycle. you have 270 million phones that have not been upgraded in four years, and now you have this ai component, which is absolutely compelling for those to convert. you also have ai in services. services have carried much higher margin so that's good for the margin profile. you have some analysts, i'm he not sure i buy it, some analysts think this stock could return $8 a share in earnings which would put this 16 times forward estimates if that was the case, not the 32 times people are focusing on. i think you also have support from the 110 billion buy back. i think the people are starting to position a little bit more positively. guess what? in the past year this stock is only up 20%. that compares to meta up 83%. that compares to amazon up 57%,

microsoft up 41%. this stock can play massive catchup if, in fact, all of these things come to fruition. >> well, because, i mean, in some respects, jason snipe, it's a show me story. the other stocks that stephanie just mentioned, they've shown us. meta got leaner. amazon, they got leaner as well. microsoft has obviously the position that it does within ai. apple's talked a good game, right? now they need to show us the upgrade cycle that's got to be built into the stock move. >> 100%, scott. it's completely a show me story. all about execution. wdc was literally 30 days ago. the stock is up 20% since then. all ooits and all the focus has been about all the ai improvements and things steph just eluded to. china was down 20%. i think that is bottoming out.

excellent point steph just made, 270 million iphone users have not upgraded their phones. i think this new echnology, all that they have discussed which is building excitement and the stock will come to fruition come september. i think, yes, it's absolutely execution story. the $110 billion buy back. the stock is trading at 35 times forward. it's now at $3.5 trillion market cap. again, the largest stock in the world. this is a unique opportunity for apple. they were sitting on the sidelines as all the stores, all of the focuses have been around other names, to your point, in the megacap environment and obviously apple has not always been the first to move on new technologies but they wait and see and i think this would be the story a that we see them execute over the next few months. >> i was at a friend's house this weekend with five guys

sitting around talking. everyone's got an iphone. none of them knew that in order to benefit from this upgrade sykesle you needed at least i think it's a 15 or later. all of them had 11s, 12s or something because there's been no reason to upgrade which is why you've seen the refresh cycle go from a hard two years to four to five years now. to the move in the stock, again, i make no comment about the stock as an investment. i imagine jason and stephanie would agree. people don't realize as of yet that they're going to have to get a new phone. that's why i think the stock price is moving now. there are tens of millions of people who are going to find out oh, i need a new phone and go buy one. >> steph, you've expressed your concern recently, it's fair to say new found concern about the state of the economy which has obviously been showing signs of weakness. the fed chair continues to talk about what's happening in the labor market.

how does that color the stocks you wanted to buy a week ago or two weeks ago that you may not take a look at yet? >> nothing has really changed other than we went from 3.4% gdp growth last year to we're now running at 2%. 2% is still pretty healthy. in addition, inflation is absolutely making progress. we get a big number tomorrow. you have a 2.6 pce. powell sounded like in the last couple of days he's focused on the slower growth and focused on inflation making progress and they're getting closer to easing. that's a good thing. hopefully they don't overstay their welcome in terms of the high restrictive rates. in a 2% gdp, you can grow and you have margins. with inflation coming down you have some margin health as well. i think you can see 8 to 10% growth for this year. i do not think you can grow in

the mid teens next year. we'll have to deal with that at some point. i do think very healthy 8 to 10% growth, that is very supportive for stocks. i've been talking about this forever and i have been wrong in terms of the broadening out, but i do think this quarter is really going to be an inflection point for not only tech to continue its run but also for other sectors to do well, too. that's financials and industrials. i think they're a lot cheaper and they're a lot less owned. that's where i think you're -- i absolutely am buying those stocks. >> we've been talking about the significance of the last couple of days of chair powell on capitol hill. i'm looking at a write through that moved from nick timerose from the wall street journal who says, and i'm quoting from the article, during two days of congressional testimony this week, fed chair jerome powell made the beginning of a pivot on interest rates that might prove more durable than one that

sparked a big market rally at the end of last year. he goes on to say, quote, he allowed that the fed was not far, powell's words, not far from achieving the confidence it needed to cut rates. i mean, that's what this was over the last couple of days, steph. it was a table set, a letting everybody know that we're closer than we have ever been in this particular cycle to actually making the move to cut rates. >> right. right. but so here's the thing. i don't think they're going to cut rates two, three, five times this year. there are some people that are calling for that. i don't think we need it in the economy growing at about 2%, but i think just a signal of one or doing just one, at least gets them started. and they'll do more if growth slows more, but i'm not thinking that growth is going to slow more because i still think we have a heck of a lot of fiscal stimulus in the economy that is

helping the consumer, that is helping the manufacturing industry so, again, it all comes down to earnings, scott. you know stocks follow profits on the way up and on the way down. right now they're going higher. >> what do you make of the perspective that timerose is writing about why i framed the very top of this program today the way that we did. it's a rate cut rally. he's telling you essentially without saying it explicitly, we're darn close. >> nick is a phenomenally connected and terrific reporter. no question about it. i also think what you read is what the market believes also. i don't think that's telling you anything we don't know. to stephanie's point -- >> we wouldn't believe it if the fed chair wasn't as direct. >> sure. >> and as leading, perhaps, as he was over the last couple of days. i think that's the whole point. >> no doubt about it. >> we wouldn't have the type of rally that we probably have had over the last couple of days without the chair setting the

table in the manner in which he did. i feel like he took the extra step. steve liesman after hearing the testimony before senate banking yesterday suggested he took an extra sort of dovish step. i feel like today he only added to that and maybe put the other foot in front of the other one. >> no, i'm agreeing with you entirely. to steph's point, there are a couple of banks that have three rate cuts, most are at two, some are at one. i think in terms of the forecasting community, economics community, everybody sort of thought that the economy and inflation would be on this path to start permitting them to cut rates whether it was september, december, two, three, one obviously is the great debate, but i think he took the -- i would agree he took the extra step to sort of tell the market we're almost there. i think if you get one or two more reports, another weakening in the labor market, so to speak, maybe claims ticking up to 240, 250, inflation moving

down into the lower 2.5s versus upper 2.5s, i don't think they wouldn't feel comfortable starting to cut rates. >> jason, i'll give you the last word on the conversation we're having. wrap it up for us. >> yeah, scott, i think absolutely as it relates to what the fed is doing, i think they've done a phenomenal job. unemployment's right at 4.1%. pce at 2.6%. obviously we have ppi and cpi, cpi looking to come in at 3.1 and ppi at 2.2. these are numbers that are supportive for at least one potential cut by the end of this year. i think it will be september. i think, you know, then the election -- we'll get through the election and they'll kind of look at policy again in 2025. i think we're in an excellent place. rates are lower. inflation is under control. i think this is a nice opportunity to put money to work. >> dare i say i might be

surprised if they only did it once this year. we shall see. we'll have plenty to talk about in the weeks and months ahead. guys, thanks so much. jason, we'll talk to you again, jason as well. let's send it to pippa stevens for the biggest names moving into the close. >> hub spot is sinking following a bloomberg report that alphabet has shelved its efforts to acquire the company. alphabet signaled interest but the sides did not reach detailed discussions around due diligence according to the report citing people with knowledge to the matter. we did reach out to both companies but did not hear back. legalzoom plunging 22%. they announced the departure of its ceo. five analysts downgraded the stock including jpmorgan that said they would view this as signaling new found operational troubles at the company. >> pippa, thank you. we'll see you soon. pipa stevens.

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we are rae back. the tech sector hitting another record high today gaining nearly 35% so far this year. our next guest still sees further up side. joining me at post 9 is sun cho. nice to see you. >> thanks very much for having me. >> where are the best places to look outside of the megacaps which, you know, no one wants to talk about. everyone is fixated on the big names. apple going for seven in if a row. nvidia off to the races.

what do you think? >> one of the principles of tech investing is to follow estimates revisions. as a result, those stocks have outperformed. as you think about whether you want to stay inside the mag 7 or outside? we think the mag 7 have not plateaued but less exciting. >> okay. i hear that from other people as well. i don't think many would be surprised by that. >> yeah. >> can't keep up this torrid pace of earnings explosiveness for fr. >> yeah. >> let's focus on the chips. nvidia had the explosion.

sox is back at a new high. what does that tell us about the other stocks? >> we've seen so far nvidia has dominated the space. they've had 100% processing the market share. we think that dynamic is about to change. all the cloud hyper scaler companies are investing in their own silicone companies. >> i hear names like lam research, applied materials, chip equipment names. >> yeah. >> that's kind of the wheelhouse you're talking about? >> marvell is much more of an asic provider. amazon is developing their own silicon. they're developing asic chip which is a different kind of silicon rather than gpus. >> so what about software which kind of -- you know, a lot of the names in that space, the

popular ones fell by the way side for a while. i had some suggest, no, it's too early to buy the dip. brad hirschner who you may know from altimeter said they're close to a bottom. some names have rebounded. what do you think? >> we like the infrastructure companies. all of the data that's been trained is publicly available. at some point we'll run out of that data. the gold mine and the next generation of this kind of ai wave is going to be enter price data. enterprise data is still in its infancy. companies like elastic are going to benefit from the migration of enterprise data. >> estc. what's the market cap? dune off the top of your head? >> not off the top of my head.

>> 11 billion. >> not small cap, midcap. you think it has a lot of up side? >> yeah. >> you're a big believer of the power play, pun intended, i suppose, for ai? >> in some ways the joke is out. we have ev factories and now we're building ai factories. we're building a lot of industrial capacity. what's putting pressure is a lot of power infrastructure. 0% to 5% and we need to supply a lot more power infrastructure. in order to build out grids and power capabilities is a company called ge vernovo. does gas turbines and electrical turbines and it's a spin out of ge. >> when people say to you that -- you're the co-head of public tech investing so i know you have a thought on this that

valuations within tech are stretched. obviously looking to the megacaps. >> yeah. >> are you a believer in that? do you agree? do you make a counter argument? >> only if the valuations are stretched only if the earnings don't come through. in the last segment you talked about this the multiples are expanding because the expectations around forward growth are going up. to the extent earnings growth don't rise it's gotten too expensive. >> at some point they'll slow. >> earnings estimates will slow. we think it's a grinder. >> thanks for having me. >> up next, your second half set up. hsbc's max kettner is back with us. we'll find out where he sees oppouny d rtitanwhere he thinks stocks could be heading in the next few months just after the break.

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stocks getting a big boost. the s&p and nasdaq once again hitting all time highs. the s&p on track for the seventh straight day in gains. we are gearing up for earnings season. joining us hsbc's scott hettner. >> thanks for having me. >> how much is built around rate cuts? >> not too much. as long as the fed is signaling the next move is a cut, i think that is the most important thing whether you're an emd, emerge

being market debt, or high yield credit. whether you're in equities. it doesn't really matter when the first cut comes. i think what really matters is as long as the tail risk is taken off the table, that's totally fine. if, indeed, they don't cut this year, maybe only q1 of next year, as long as they continue to signal what they've done today, we're going to grow more confident, we're just not quite there yet. give it a bit of time and be we're going to get more confident, that's totally fine. >> i get it, but is that really true? if that was the case, right? we've figured for the last, you know, i don't know, at least month cuts are coming and yet so many areas aren't working so why is that? >> i think because when we look at the last two months we had

that one in line cpi and the down turn in may and obviously what happened was rates vol was coming down. we've seen yields decline. we've seen real yields decline. that really, really propels the tech sector. also what we've seen in the last two months is these negative activities and the negative surprises in the u.s. putting a bit of doubt around growth picture in the u.s. for a lot of investors that we're meeting right now really start pretty much every meeting with now that the u.s. growth is decelerating. you're going to stick to what's working over the last year, year and a half. you're going to stick to megacap growth and megacap and not really diverting too far away from that. >> you know what's interesting, i was looking at your notes and the global markets on my screen here. over the last month several of

the developed nation european markets for sure, over a month have not done well even though the ecb has already started cutting rates. why is that? >> yeah, 100%. >> is there any precursor for what may happen here as we're trying to suggest, i think, some at least are, that rate cuts are going to be positive for stocks. they haven't been there, why would they be here? >> i think that's an excellent point, scott. what we're going to have, there is a decent chance that that is will happen, we're going towards the first rate cut here in the u.s. we're going to get to that first rate cut and everyone gets super excited. we really could be having a setup where short of sentiment and positioning is going to be much more stretched. everyone gets their experts out, once we get the first rate cut, things are actually good. we get the start of a proper rate cutting cycle. things are just like they are traditionally, then everyone

gets super excited and that could be really set being things up for a bit of a stretched sentiment and positioning once it happens, and that is then the point where i think at least tactically you want to pull the plug a bit on equities and neutralize profits at least for a couple of weeks and months. we are not there yet at all because as we look at our shorter term indicators, they're not sending a mild, not even a small sell signal so we're not at that point at all yet. >> the difference, of course, our economy is stronger than their collective economy, so maybe that plays a role as well. you're coming just from a much better economic place when fed chair powell actually cuts rates for the first time from the position where lagarde had been able to do it. >> yeah. i think that plays into that as well, into that whole picture. i think certainly. the more important thing right

now, i think that's the immediate next trade, i think, in the next stage, is that pretty much everyone is saying, look, inflation is no longer a problem. listening to you guys on the program now, i don't think anyone's really particularly worried about inflation at all. don't get me wrong, i'm not proclaiming the next inflation wave higher. when you look at our forecast, we have been stuck at inflation. been stuck at headline cpi between 3 and 3.5 and we don't see that changing in the next 6 to 12 months. the big problem compared to two months ago, when you look at shorter term inflations, they're massively lower. we started the 2% shorter market base inflation expectation. we were shooting higher. we're back at 2 now. everyone's like, well, q1 next year and that's where the danger lies. we're going to get a slight, ever so slight up side and that

already is enough to question that whole narrative, well, you know, the fed already is cutting. probably september or december, doesn't matter, but they're definitely going to cut. that little bit of tiny up side surprise in inflation, even some tiny upswing in economic could be enough to question that goldilocks narrative that the market is married to. >> max, we have to leave it there. we have a rally on our hands. dow is good for 300 points. s&p crossing 600 adding to it as well. we'll keep our eyes there as well. pippa stevens is watching the stocks we need to know into the close. >> needham says to buckle up because one car stock is heading higher. we've got all the details coming up next.

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to deliver the strongest numbing pain relief available. so, do your thing like a pro, pain-free. absorbine pro. we're less than 15 from the bell. back to pippa stevens for a look at the stocks. >> ride hailing companies uber and lyft are sliding as drivers in massachusetts are pushing for a ballot question that would win them union rights if approved. it comes after a landmark settlement guaranteeing drivers will earn a minimum pay of 32.50 in the state. shares of carvana adding more than 3% after needham upgraded the stock to a buy of 160 price

target. the stock said they see carvana becoming a profitable secular growth story. scott? >> pippa, thanks for that. pippa stevens. shares of mastercard, visa and block all lower in today's session. we'll tell you what's behind the moves and what could be at stake. nasdaq, s&p trying for yet another record close. we're at session hhsig with less than 15 to go. we're coming right back.

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all right. check on shares of tesla. the ev maker on pace for 11 straight days of gains. that's the stock's strongest run since june. last year, look at that. up next, we're checking on the chips. taiwan semi popping in today's session. we'll drill down on the numbers. how it's impacting thees rt of the semispace as well inside the market zone next. sure, i'm a paid actor, and this is not a real company, but there is no way to fake how upwork can help your business. search talent all over the world with over 10,000 skills you may not have in house. more than 30% of the fortune 500 use upwork

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rally in the chip markets. seema modi and kate rooney with mastercard and visa. mike, we have a good rally. i characterize this as a rate cut rally. do you bant to take issue with any of that? nick timerose said this was in the midst of another pivot, perhaps even more dovish than we got last time. >> yes. i think that's the latest push in the direction of a bull market that's obeying all of the bull market rules. we do have this tacit acknowledgment we're within a couple of months within a 4 to 5% nominal gdp and auld of that is a nice backdrop in general leaving the soft landing, very plausible outcome. here's what we also know. great first half of the year usually means a positive second half. the up year is 20% plus. we're not there yet. first half of july is positive. chasing the best, meaning the

highest quality companies. starting to have the others participate a little bit. my point is this is all feeding off of all of the positives inputs that were already in place. i could be persuaded that we're kind of emptying the tank. looking melty, getting full. that doesn't mean it's changing the overall trend and due for a major stumble, it means maybe the risk/reward is setting up a little bit tougher. >> i know the megacaps get all of the conversation. seema modi is here to talk about the chips, specifically taiwan semi, which had some pretty good news. >> yeah. these are the monthly sales, scott, that came in much higher coming ahead of the full earnings release from thursday. it's providing a nice lift from the semiconductor sector. micron equipment, giants like lam research, broadcom, customers, nvidia all trading to the up side. amd with silo ai.

one of a dozen acquisitions amd has made in the past year as it builds out its offering to better compete with nvidia. shares of amd vastly under performing nvidia. up 23% compared to nvidia's 170% run. citi's gen ai summit, a growing number of enterprises doing ai testing. their price target on nvidia, 150. stock is trading at 134. it's getting close to the high that it hit in june of 140. >> semiconductor index doing real well. seema mody, thank you. kate rooney, mastercard, visa, what's happening? >> both are lower after the bank of america downgrade. analysts like the business model but they see limited up side. you have regulatory headwinds. the battle over swipe fees could

weigh on growth. block which used to be called square, topic for bank of america. the stock is lower after they said they would provide a6 chips. they have not loved jack dorsey's bitcoin projects. then block has also lost its correlation with bitcoin. it's gone in the opposition if you look at a coin base. the big winner in payments base has been american express. been the winner so far this year, wells fargo, looking at 22%. amex up around 26%. compare that to visa and mastercard, pretty much flat. >> kate rooney, appreciate you for that. we have less than 2 minutes to go. i mean, at some point we need to get the equal weight participating. >> ideally, yes. ideally, yes. that does also mean that the majority of the market has kind of been resting since march, you could say. that's when the equal weight first traded at these levels.

i do think you have an interesting dynamic. this is the first 1% move in the s&p in any direction since early june. 5 weeks. you've seen the volatility up. stocks up. vix up. the market's just waking up in general and we're on alert nor, ag for, again, an accelerated melt up rather than slow grind. >> under performance interestingly today in the russell. >> yeah. >> i wonder if some of that has to do with even though there's this optimism about a coming rate cut, if part of the cut is because they have to to head off a worse economic -- >> 1.08. >> just moved up here. >> everything wants to. >> to participate. >> my system's slow. >> the tradeoff is relevant in terms of how much do we want to hasten the day when a rate cut looks obvious because we are

still navigating a slowdown of certain attitudes. earnings be are expected to be up double digits. tough for the market to run into a lot of trouble if the numbers come through in the next couple of months. >> thank you, mike. new record highs for the s&p and the nasdaq. s&p's going to close about 6600 for the first time ever. the we'll be back. . that bell means the end of regulation. invesco ringing your closing bell at the new york stock exchange today. sunrise realty trust ringing at nasdaq. setting record closings again as apple and tesla extend the win straeks and the rally broadens out. that is the scorecard. welcome to "closing bell overtime." jon fort with morgan brennan. >> david neeleman joins us. low cost carrier breez