inflation reading, pce. we're going to continue to watch all of that as the markets do climb, though, to record highs. >> and the megacaps continue to have a big role in that. you can't count out apple, you can't even count out tesla. that's right. seven straight days of record closes for apple. that does it for us here at "overtime." >> "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site on a day when the s&p and nasdaq set a closing record yet again, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. momenting up and down. we've got our eyes on two stocks moving in very different directions. one hitting one record high after another. the other, nearly two-year lows. plus, hi ho silver. the mining stocks up and hitting their highest level since early june. and we're going live to sun valley, idaho, with longtime democratic donor reid hoffman.

we'll get his thoughts on the a.i. boom and what he has to say about the state of american politics. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, karen finerman, dan nathan, and guy adami. we start off with apple, adding another 2% today to mark its seventh all-time high close in a row, that is its longest streak of record closes since 2012. even with these big gains, wall street remains optimistic on the stock. laura martin upping the firm's price target to 260 a share. she writes that the company's $110 billion stock buy-back is a near-term positive, while others are forking up that amount to play for gen a.i. in infrastructure. apple expects 10% growth in new iphone shipments this year on expectations that new a.i. features can boost demand. the company aiming to ship 90 million iphone 16 devices in the back half of 2024. with the stock trailing behindds

bet on apple and other a.i. laggards? this is the whole dilemma. guy, what do you say? >> first of all, the work you've done this week is remarkable. you are the hardest working person at the network. you were at -- >> i have the next two days off. just kidding. >> i was going to say. incredible work by you. look, i would have said at $190, this stock was expensive, now, at 32 times earnings, which is expensive even by apple's standard, with a company that's going to do 7% eps, maybe 8% revenue growth with margins that have been maybe upticking, but flat lining for the last couple years, it's gotten to be very expensive. they cite the pie-back. that's great. apple's been doing that for the last couple years. the number took people by surprise. but it's probably sort of what they've been doing all along. so, you are definitely paying up. the stock is clearly paying catchup, but i can't believe

you're chasing the stock at these levels. >> the company is saying, is telling its suppliers, it is expecting to sell more iphones, more 16s, because of a.i. this year. it's happening already, dan. if you believe that report. >> well, i don't. i mean, a month ago, we were watching this worldwide developers conference, the stock sold off 2% that day, and for some reason -- first things first. you couldn't give this stock away in april, okay? like, think about that. so, it's up 40% since then. it's gained a trillion dollars in market cap based on the excitement around something that we have no proof that it's actually going to drive upgrade cycle in iphones. we have no proof to believe that this is going to be the sort of, you know, transformative sort of ios experience that they're saying. if you think back to what they demonstrated to analysts and basically, you know, investors, whoever the heck it was on that day on june 10th, i mean, like, maybe we're going to get some of these things in ios, you know, 16 or 18 -- i think it's 18 -- at the end of this year, but

listen, you know -- have at it. >> to some extent, though, the whole part of the a.i. trade is a leap of faith. is a belief that it will be transformative. we don't know a lot of things about a.i. we don't know if microsoft will truly monetize a.i. people will pay up for -- we don't know a lot of things. and yet there is this assumption that it will happen. why not for apple? >> especially with, you know, 2.5 billion devices out there, a little bet less than that. either way, you're going to have a refresh. i don't think there's any question that wwdc was positive. and i think the market's interpretation for a up canal hours in the ofteafternoon was wrong. it's wrong because there's no question that there is some sense of partnerships and whether it's with chatgpt, if they can get the services out now in the current operating system, but ultimately, it will inspire to buy a new iphone, and at asps that will be higher. the stock did nothing for two years in a market that's moving higher and rerating on multiple,

then why wouldn't apple do it? part of this to me, you needed a new horse to drive this rally, and not expensive relative to nvidia, but obviously yes. i certainly sat on this desk and said, i don't love the multiple. but i just think in a world where we don't know exactly where the a.i. chips are going to land, i think that apple is in as good of a place in terms of their control of the consumer. and we see this. we see this with microsoft and google falling all over apple, essentially, to help be part of that conduit. so, i think it can continue, it continues in a market which is just going higher. and we'll get into fed, we'll get into cpi tomorrow, we'll get into all these things, but when the market's moving higher, apple has to be part of it on some level, even though dit did nothing for two years. so, you know, i guess i can't say i'm that surprised. >> i'm not that surprised, either, but i think it's too expensive. right? kudos to gene munster, who, right after wwdc thought that

was fantastic. i think the multiple here, remember, a lot of it is hardware, which should get a very different multiple, and if you look at something like microsoft, which is also expensive, high 30s multiple, that's a much more, first of all, already seeing, you know, co-pilot revenue, right? so, there's more certainty there. that seems to me, actually, to be -- those two prices don't seem to be fair relative to one another. both seem high to me, but -- so, i've been a skeptic on apple for a long time, that's been the wrong place to be, but -- >> well, microsoft is a 70% gross margin company. so, there's no real hardware to kind of value this thing on. so, when you look at the 46% gross margin that apple's expected to have and 50% of their sales comes from hardware, you know, or more -- >> more. >> 50% is iphone, like, if you are playing would you rather, you know what i mean, i think it's probably an easy bet right here. i think the big differential, and this is something that people came to understand, right

after wwdc, is that they're not paying openai, right, to have access to chatgpt, they're going to talk to, you know, google and try to do the same thing as far as gemini. they are probably going to talk to baidu as it relates to china. and we talked a lot about that right after that. baidu had a big run over the last couple weeks and that was a name we said should benefit right there. and i would say that if you can get china iphone sales moving higher, because it's been really stagnant over the last two years or so, well, that would be something i think to look at and say, well, that's something that's changing the whole dynamic of this stock. >> i think part of that call is the implication that they are not spending the money on developing their own a.i., and they are getting it from openai, and they're able to use this money for a buy-back, i mean, i know money -- cash is fungible, so, you know -- but -- >> the buy-back is not accretive, right? >> right. >> so, if -- to the -- that used to help. >> right. but to the extent that they can use the money in some other

capacity -- maybethat's a smart thing, at least at this stage in the a.i. race. >> i get it. roger was on one of the squawk shows, not yours, yesterday. and said the hype is probably a little bit excessive right now on a.i., and he brought some pretty interesting cases, he spoke todavid faber, david pushed back, correctly to do so, but roger is somebody you should listen to. you don't have to agree to the guy, but you have to say, hmm, maybe he is onto something here. the stocks are on auto pilot, clearly, but i think he brings up a good point, maybe that back end, that monetization that you cited, you know, i've yet to see the case that proves there's going to be monetization on the backside. i get the spend portion of it, but people have to be able to monetize this on the back end. >> this was dead money for 2 1/2 years. it was dead money from jan of '22 in the greatest bull market possibly of all time, so -- with a little bit of news around wwdc, and a little bit of their time to at least shine a little bit of light in terms of what a.i. means for them, when other

companies have probably taken a lot more out of that trade with less, you know -- i don't think it's that big of a deal. steve came on our show, said the refresh cycle, that was well before wwdc. >> that's true. >> we said, that makes a lot of sense. so -- i just -- you know, i -- the multiple doesn't make sense. but the market's multiple doesn't make ense, either. relative to the market, relative to everything else that's going on for a stock that was dead, that a lot of people -- look, i bought apple at 195 recently. i kind of felt like, there's enough here to actually get behind the stock, and we still don't have to see a whole lot out of them. i think -- i think it continues. >> all fair points. i think the question, though, now, at this point in time after a trillion dollars in market cap being added is, is this going to be a great trade? yes, dead money, for 2 1/2 years, but if you were in it since june, what a great trade that was. if you are in it from here until the end of the year, is that going to be a great trade again? and just to go back to that research note from earlier this week from ben, you know, is it time to move into those

laggards? we saw that playbook last year, the second half of last year was a powerful one for the laggards in first half of the year, like intel, amd, dell. is it going to happen this year in apple falling in that bucket? >> i think so. intel falls into the bucket, as ben mentioned. i guess apple you can throw it in there. the run has been extraordinary over the last couple weeks. i guess -- listen, i understand what exactly what tim is saying. it's been dead money for a long time. it's finally starting to play ball. you pull up an apple chart over the last seven, eight years, and you'll see at least that many 25% to 40% peak to trough declines. i mean, we saw one recently, i think, as late as april of this year, where the stock had a pretty significant drawdown. it's not impervious to market selloffs. it never really has been. >> all right, well, big tech breaks out to new highs, it may be crunchtime for lululemon. losses up to 40% for the year and hit lows dating back to october 2022. the most talked retail analyst

warns the brand faces a watershed moment. he's got a market perform rating and a $384 price target. good to see you. i mean, i guess the question is, you know, is this sort of a one-off bad season or is this a more prolonged sort of slump that lulu is in. are you ready to decide? >> wouldn't it be nice if i just said yes? i think that's the question. i think you and i have talked about it in the past, we talked about it on the show, the notion that brands become not cool at a certain level. and that level, my team has done phenomenal work on this, so, thank you to them, but what we have found is $3 billion in north america is that level. and so, companies go above it and then they come crashing back down. lulu right now at over $6 billion looks much higher. now, guy's going to say, well, where's nike fit on that? the answer is, there are exceptions. so, we need to figure out, is this an exception? what you look for is whether the sales are eroding, the quality of sales are eroding? do they have to discount to get

those revenues? last quarter, they did. >> so, let me ask you, we see turnaround plays before, i think of ralph lauren as one, right? where it surpassed that $3 billion, it's north of $6 billion. the brand was ubiquitous and it seemed to be sort of tainted somewhat. and yet they were able to do it. what did they do there that you think lulu could or won't be able to do? >> so, i'm half glad you are asking me that, half not. one thing that we did -- >> i'm still waiting for guy -- >> preemptive strike. i get it. i would have done the same thing. >> got it beforehand. i'm here. so it's $3 billion of sales at retail. so, what that means, these companies report their revenues, but ralph is a wholesale business. so, if you strip out the business and you add that up, they're actually -- it looks different. and so, that's really important, because i don't really care about what revenues a business recognizes, i care about what level a consumer spends. so, a lot of these -- you watch ral

ralph, michael kors, coach, wholesale helps. lulu doesn't have that, and they came back down. ralph appreciated this idea that you can sell less and charge more and make more money. you can raise your price and we learned this in econ 101, price elasticity. i can make a lot more money by being more exclusive. >> i hear your concerns, and i -- you are talking about ubiquity, that sounds like it's almost brand specific. i hear you talking about levels that you and your team have at least determined are where companies run out of gas. this sounds as much like a macro story as it is a company specific story. i think it's both. i actually think it's a case where, i think the macro is just as bad as the specific story, and i think the pull forward from covid is one of the most extraordinary things we'll have ever seen, if you are a company like lulu, especially in athleisure, when guy sat around at home in his yoga pants and didn't really have to put a suit

on until last week. is it lulu or is it the consumer? >> this is what i love that you guys do so well. you can take a company, strip it down to not what they do and look at the numbers, say, how is that working in a way that other people cannot. if you look at lulu's numbers, sub par last quarter. its gross margin, dramatically underperformed. why did it underperform? they marked stuff down. i don't think -- i don't cover lvmh, i tdidn't hear them talkig about marking stuff down. what you're watching is relative to the group. if i were to delete thefourth lulu and just showed you the performance, and you'd say, should i be paying 20 times? and going back to the market multiple, well, lulu has always traded above. that's the give and take. you can say, how is their inve inventory? it was really clean. when retailers make a mistake, they discount, they clean, they start again. that's why we're not ready to make that call. because what could happen, it could be that lulu had a

mistake. they had a fashion miss. so, beyond just macro, they had company-specific miss. isn't that nice? i get to say those. >> that's great. >> what about -- the margin is flat for the last two years, and it's a bump, you know, from 55% two years ago, up to 58 or so. you look at a nike at 46% or so. and i think it's probably more macro if you think about it. so, do you not believe that double digit, expected earnings growth and sales growth with a flat martgin next year. if you do, trading at 18 times, you just don't have too many opportunities to buy a company like this that doesn't have a specific issue. >> if you believe -- and this is where that $3 billion number matters. so many companies have had so many different conversations that say, okay, i get it, i can see it, but it's not relative to me. if you believe it's relevant to them, we're not going to be seeing this revenue number go up. it's not going to grow, it's going to shrink. the question is when.

if it shrinks, you have the ebit number that doesn't exist. you talk about apple before, they have apple level sales per square feet. if that goes the other way, that 23 ebit number starts going the other way, too. >> i want to clear something up. tim was projecting. i don't wear yoga pants, number one. you know this, tim knows this, but he needs -- he feels it necessary to bring it up. great flow, by you, by the way. he could have played high school hockey in minnesota. here is my question. they reported on, i think, june 5th, their first quarters. inventories were down 15%. >> yeah. >> against decent sales growth, which suggests that the next quarter margins might actually improve, which might sort of vindicate your call, but i don't note about the price target, but at least your thesis. does that make sense? >> if the company would have gotten on the conference call and said, we messed up, fashion, sorry, and because of that, we took our medicine, marked it all down, and we're clean, it's good, this is the buying

opportunity of a lifetime. they didn't say that. they guided grosses down again. and so, if this is the beginning of, we just found out lulu overstretched, then this looks very different and -- it's still a $35 billion or so market cap. on $10 billion of revenues. most of the companies i look at don't trade on multiples of revenue like that. >> so, for the first time, they've had some really sort of real competition, right? and this fascinating -- literally being right across the street or next door. how big of a deal is that, do you think, to the lulu story? >> you brought up ralph before, i pivoted into coach and capri, and i remember when that first happened, when michael kors said, i'm going to put next to every coach, it was easy and it worked. went too far, but it worked. you are seeing that. and so, the question is, and this is semantics and it might be just silly, but i'm not arguing that they are taking lulu share, what i'm arguing is that lulu has potentially hit that level where they are no longer who they were to their

core audience. that person walks into the store, feels like it's not their lulu because it's so large. they walk out and by the way, there's two great options sitting across the street. and so, i wonder if their growth is more emblematic of lulu being too large, rather than taking their share. it doesn't really matter, because we can see their success. lulu has always had competition, they just never were able to scale up. that might be the macro. we do and can still wear these pants. if i'm doing this -- if i do your show from home, i can wear those yoga pants below. but -- or it could be that there's finally opportunity and there needs to be, because lulu has gotten too large. that's the question we're watching. >> sithank you. >> great hair. i'll say this, 263-ish level, the lows we saw in 2022, that is huge support. so, not a lot of catalysts going

forward, other than maybe getting buoyed by technical support or a broader market that keeps going higher, but it's clearly a company where competition has become a huge problem for them. all right. we have a news alert here on alcoa. kate rooney has the details. >> hey, melissa. alcoa is out right now with some preliminary results, this is in connection with its acquisition of lumina. they say q-2 revenue is expected to come in between a range of 2$2.85 billion and $2.9 billion. a year ago, that number was $2.6 billion, so, the low range, it's up 10%. they say it's a sequential increase due to higher average third party prices. and they say it's partially offset by lower shipments. and then, net income, as well. this turned positive, it looks like, it is expected to turn positive. they are looking for adjusted income per share of between 8 and 19 cents. a year ago, that was a loss of

35 cents for alcoa. we're going to get official results on july 16th. the ceo saying here in a statement, we had strong preliminary results for 2 second quarter. he says it reflects strong market improvement. you can see shares up here, slightly, mel, afterhours. back over to you. >> kate, thank you. kate rooney. once upon a time, this used to be the first out of the gate in earnings season, used to be a read on the economy. maybe not so much anymore. >> no, and when they spun off, you know, essentially the exciting part of the business, the specialty metals business, this piece of -- call it the dirty metal, was largely something that has been left for dead, except for that it's not. it's still one of the biggest aluminum companies in the world. i think this is a space that has more head winds, more tied to the industrial production dynamic and i don't think it gets better. coming up, a gloomy forecast. why analysts are seeing some clouds forming for visa and mastercard, and how you should manage the storm, next. plus, we're going live to sun valley, idaho, where a.i. is taking center stage at the allen

and company conference. how the top players in the space are handling the tech revenue ahead. don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two. fast and reliable internet from the same network that powers our phones. (aaron) so whatever's next... we're cooking with fire. (vo) switch to the partner businesses rely on.

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visa and mastercard taking a hit today after bank of america downgraded both names to neutral from buy. the analysts say they remain positive on the business, they see limited upside for valuations and estimates and are cutting price targets on each company. so, what do we make of this? regulatory issues and -- >> overcrowding on the long only. >> nonconsensus call, also. like, that -- >> yeah. >> those things go together. i thought that was -- it was sbreging, because this is as much of a technical call as i was a valuation call. they said, we love the competitive landscape, but it's cr crowded. >> it's always been an expensive stock. since we started talking about this, it's always traded at a premium. visa, the same thing. it's only recently, and it started in march, where the stock has nopt kept up with the broader market. and this is typically lower left upper right. steady as she goes. but something's changed. when you see a stock down as significantly as it is today on the back of that downgrade, but

a broader market that did very something is going on here. the report at the end of the month, i think, maybe valuation finally caught up, or somethin . maybe the transactions, which has been their bred and butter, maybe they're slowing down a it's a tell on the consumer. >> so, i think it's been more expensive at other times. let's for example, something that's mid highest 20s, it's been way higher than that. granted, we're in a different rate environment, but -- so, regulatory, i think, is one. the other is, at some point down the road, some report of threat to their position, right? we thought that for a long, long time and sort of gave up on -- >> regulatory -- >> no. >> fintech? >> yeah, i see. >> in terms of their lock on this his be. but to me, this doesn't seem so expensive. i also think, when would you get a chance to buy it back again? i don't know. it's an interesting call. i like bold calls.

>> so, if part of it is the consumer and part of it's technical, i look at an american express. they have credit risk, right? and obviously visa and mastercard don't. but lack of charging and lack of transactions should be an issue here. so, just from a technical standpoint, this stock is very near its all-time highs it was just at a month or so ago. 16% earnings growth this year, 14% next. probably about 10% sales growth and it's trading 18 times this year. that's the opposite of what we're receiving. those mastercard and visa trade at a peg, i think, of like two or something like that. so, it is interesting to me. the american express. like, i want to keep watching this, i want to kind of hear what they have to say. very different story, in a lot of ways, but if the consumer is weakening, then this stock is probably going to get more expensive by going lower. all right, there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. counting down to the june cpi report. what to watch in tomorrow's inflation print, and what it could mean for the central

bank's next move. plus, you can't spell idaho without a.i. and that's what's on everyone's mind at the allen and company conference in sun valley. how the hottest trend in tech is dominating the spotlight. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times sar 're back right after this.

welcome back to "fast money." the biggest names in tech and media are gathering this week in sun valley, idaho. the allen and company conference is known for megamedia deals and can't seem to get away from one of the hottest topics of the year, a.i. cnbc's julia boorstin is joined now by reid hoffman. julia, take it away. >> thank you, melissa. big topic here, a.i., and also the presidential election. reid hoffman, cofounder of linkedin, also a serious donor to the democratic party. you drew a lot of attention when you circulated a letter after the debate defending biden. since then, we've seen more and more big voices come out and ask the president to maybe reconsider running, from nancy pelosi to george clooney, raising questions here. have you changed your mind since you sent that letter? >> well, i haven't changed what i said in the letter, which is, the best qualification for being

a great president is being president. what he's done over the last four years. not a debate, not -- oh, i had senior moments at the debate, but also lowest crime rate, lowest unemployment rate. most bipartisan legislation in decades. this's what we want from a president. that was the thing i was saying, look, don't rotate on the debate. rotate on the presidency. and on the quality of the man who cares about you, cares about the country. cares about not just himself. didn't, you know, encourage an insurrection, didn't try to go find votes, et cetera. but was actually dedicated to american democracy. and that was the thing that i was essentially doing in the letter. i still feel that as strongly. now, obviously, you know, biden is older, and if he's feeling tired, he should tell us, but i'm hopeful to see a return to a vigorous biden. >> but since you wrote that letter, since the debate, we've seen biden continue to fall in

the polls. far behind trump. the tech industry says rotate, the word is pivot. what would you be pivoting to? >> well, for me, because in a sense, in this election, i few myself as an advocate for the constitution, the rule of law, an advocate for caring about all americans, not just yourself. i will continue to believe that advocacy, which is the democratic party ticket. it's weird to say that one of the parties is for the constitution and not the other ones, but i think that's where we've -- the shape that we've gotten into and we need to of course heal that as a country. so, i will continue to be an advocate for that. biden has been a great president. is a very decent guy. and cares about the country, and the people in it more than he cares about himself. and i think that is an excellent qualification. >> one of your paypal cofounders has become a big leader for the tech for trump contingent, peter

teal has been a big supporter of trump in the past. what do you think have wrong? a lot of business leaders here are saying a republican administration, maybe not naming trump in particular, but saying a republican administration may be better for business. >> so, i've written about this, both online and in "the economist," other places, look, it's a natural and easy thing to say. it's better for business to reduce regulation p. and by the way, i think that's one of the things the trump administration did well. however, what's most important is stability. right? and most important is rule of law. that's how businesses function. and that is actually, in fact, what i think we are essentially voting on this november, and that's part of -- you know, your average voter might say, why is business investing -- well, that's how new jobs are created, new industries are created. and that kind of stability and

that belief in -- the country should be managed to stability, not to, you know, essentially tweets, is, i think, key. >> i want to make sure we get your thoughts on a.i., as well. you mentioned regulation. you were on the board of microsoft, which, of course, is the biggest investor in partner in openai, and most recently, there have been various regulatory concerns, if there's a patchwork of laws in different states. and the doj and ftc agreed to divide responsibility in investigating nvidia, microsoft, and openai. what do you make of the investigations, concerns that the a.i. giants are too big, including one that you sit on the board at? >> so, i think it's way jumping the gun, relative to the fact that we're still seeing -- we're in the very early days of how the a.i. stuff will play. and if you go around silicon valley, ask you vcs like myself at greylock, what are you investing in, we're investing in a.i., because we think we can make the next technology giants

by investing in a.i. i myself cofounded a company, inflection a.i. i think the view is that it's active and it's there. the thing about anti-trust stuff is, if i thought we were -- call it seven large tech companies heading the three, but we're heading the is a. that competition creates value for society, industry. that's what i think we're in. >> we're out of time, quickly, though, i have to ask, how do you think a.i. should be regulated right now? >> well, i this i tnk the biden administration has done a great job. make it veryfocused on very specific kinds of harms. and then start getting in the data and information flow in order to see when it needs to be more than that. >> reid hoffman, so grateful for you sharing your perspectives with us. thank you for joining us here from sun valley. melissa, back over to you. >> julia, thank you. our thanks to reid hoffman. that sentiment that this is an industry that is getting bigger, that the players that are leading the markets right now

may not be the only players in the game, i think that's very interesting for a time when we are just assuming that they are way out in front. >> yeah, we haven't seen too much of that since google probably 24 years ago. where an upstart has been able to catch some incumbents, and i'll just say this, it's not just about a.i., as it relates to companies and the enterprise and the like. there's sovereign a.i. this is going to be an arms race with china. we better get the regular lair right. we can't thwart innovation here. >> and i think innovation comes to the united states, or it was already here, i do think the idea of rotation and finding -- this is where investors are. nvidia was a $5 stock, split adjusted back in early 2020. it's crazy to think about where this company has come. so, what i hear when i listen to reid, the dynamic, there are a lot of things going on that investors should be doing the extra work on, and the concerns about anti-trust, around megacap

tech right now, i think are overblown. and i don't think anything's going to happen in the short run. >> how long have we been doing this show? >> long time. >> offcamera, i curse like a truck driver. he dropped that -- >> our apologies to the young children watching. >> seriously? >> yeah. >> oh -- i mean, you look at me like -- i didn't do it. he dropped it. anyway. that's what i took away. coming up, gold getting a run for its money recently. we'll have some more on the shiny sector. and cnbc is set to reveal its 2024 top state for business. we have one more hint for you ahead of tomorrow's big reveal. "fast money" is back in two.

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welcome back to "fast money." stocks surging into the close with the s&p 500 and nasdaq notching fresh report closes. the s&p closing above 5,600 for the first time ever. the dow jumping more than 400 points, marking its highest close since may. wk kellogg lowering a price target to $17 from 24 bucks a share. and shares of costco higher afterhours after the retailer

reported june sales results and announced plans to raise its membership fee for the first time in seven years. fed chair jerome powell wrapping up day two of testimony on the hill. warning keeping rates too high too long could hinder economic growth. tomorrow's cpi report out bright and early. >> costco thinks they'll be able raise prices. it's a juggernaut of a company that's actually given you a couple of pullbacks over the last couple years. valuation is always a concern. what does it say about the state of the consumer? and it juxtapose everything you hear from the dollar stores. it's costco's world and walmart's world, and that speaks to the weakness, not strength of the consumer. >> they haven't raised their membership prices in seven years, right? >> amazing. >> it's not a very big raise. those dollars, the margin on those dollars are huge, but it's

really a small part of the overall dollars. just crushing it, for years. for years. all right, coming up, shining silver. with the commodity on the tear, we are digging into this gleam ing trade. guy's favorite pan american silver coming up next. plus, we'll bring in the top personal finance expert for a look at the reasons behind the ort llshfas and how to catch up, right after this.

(reporters) over here. kev! kev! (reporter 1) any response to the trade rumors, we keep hearing about? (kev) we talkin' about moving? not the trade, not the trade, we talking about movin'. no thank you. (reporter 2) you could use opendoor. sell your house directly to them, it's easy. (kev) ... i guess we're movin'.

welcome back to "fast money." move over gold, silver is the new hot commodity. the metal really breaking out over the last two months, bringing its gains for the year to 29% versus just 15% for gold. and check out the sil silver miners etf, notching its fifth winning day in sixth. major moves higher today, as metals traders catch silver fever. this is a fever that guy adami has had for some time now. >> hash tag, as well. i could have put the p in my clam and it could have been clamp.

>> that would have been a great one. >> genius. >> you can still -- >> no -- >> be careful when you do that, all right? >> you can't put anything in your clam now. >> just a little worried about it. >> as you should be. silver's breaking out here, i believe. you know, if silver just gets back to sort of, look, silver is tradie ing at half of its all-t high. if silver got back 70% of its prior high, if you talk about an item that should be in the high 30s, that means paas should be in the high 20s. so, i think you stay with this trade, mel. >> i like silver, but i like gold more. and silver's outperformed gold by, you know, 10% or 15% over the last two years. if you think about where gold, though, is positioned, everything we're talking about tonight in terms of political instability, everything we're talking about in terms of where i think the fed has kind of taken their foot off the neck of both the market and certainly the economy, i -- this is so gold-friendly, and the fact that gold, through some difficult

times, even in terms of rates and inflation over the last couple months, has stayed near all-time highs, gold is going to break out even more. the problem with the miners, in some cases, people don't believe they have the operational leverage and their ability to withstand some of the inflation dynamics in their core business. newmont has been making it go down. i think miners will start to go. >> will silver trade at all based on the outlook for economies? it's more of an industrial metal than gold -- >> well, there's -- gold is a commodity in name only, i've said that, i'm not suggesting i'm right. i believe it. silver is a commodity with an end use. so, to your point, absolutely. and i think the market has coming to the realization that, wait a second, there is something going on here. that's one of the reasons why it's starting to catch some air. coming up, americans feeling better about retirement than last year, but optimism isn't universal, how gen x savers are

sf faring compared to the rest. jim is chatting with the ceo of brinker international, that's coming up at the top of the hour. more "fast money" in two. ♪("baby" by summer walker)♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ book in the hotels.com app to find your perfect somewhere.

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and now his attention is spent elsewhere. but i'm thinking of her the whole time. that's so much worse. why is that thing in bed with you? this is where it gets the best signal from the cell tower! i've tried everywhere else in the house! there's always a new excuse. well if we got xfinity you wouldn't have to mess around with the connection. therapy's tough, huh? -mmm. it's like a lot about me. [laughs] a home router should never be a home wrecker. oo this is a good book title. welcome back. we are less than 24 hours away

from revealing america's top states for business in 2024. our own scott kohn is live at a secret location in the top state with a look at the issues shaping the landscape this year. scott, you've been busy, you're roasting marsh mellows, on a kayak, i mean, now you're on a bike? >> yeah, you know, we -- we do a lot of traveling for top states every year, planes, trains, automobiles, kayaks, mountain bikes. so, we like to drag this part out a little bit. where am i, america's top state for business? here is one more diabolical hint. a penny saved. a penny saved. again, remember, they are diabolical hints, but that should give you a clue, if you think about it, as to where i am. we will reveal the top state for business tomorrow morning on sk "squawk box." you'll be able to read it all at topstates.cnbc.com. >> how many more -- >> that's not doing it for me.

>> i'm not near narrowing this down. >> well, we'll have another hit on "last call" tonight with brian sullivan, and we'll recap them again on "squawk box" for those who did not see all of them, so, there's -- we do five every year, which should be enough, come on. >> all right. all right, scott, we look forward to the last one tonight and the next one tomorrow. i don't know, this -- >> do we see a license plate on that tractor there in the background. >> you don't know if it's from in-state. what if he's near the border of another state and the tractor -- >> you never drive your tractor over the border. >> that's how diabolical he is. probably planted the tractor with the fake license plate, just to trick us. is it a -- >> he looks new to bike riding. >> he looks hot. >> ben franklin, franklin, tennessee -- >> oh. >> i'm going with tennessee. if i'm right, i'm calling you in the morning. >> you had tennessee before you saw scott, though, i think you are working backwards. >> could be working my way --

>> i was wondering if there's a copper play. >> interesting. >> which would maybe go to, like, arizona, but that -- that can't be -- >> that's not arizona. way can't be it. >> there's a lot of things -- >> the scenery is not arizona. anyway, we'll find out tomorrow. meantime, more americans say they are on track with their retirement savings this year than in 2023, according toa new blackrock survey. yet, that optimism is not shared across jekrcross generations. sharon epperson is here with more. sharon? >> good to be here. well, you know, blackrock asked employers and workers about retirement savings plans, and the impact on their future. they found significant differences between generations. gen z, the youngest in the work force, they are confident about retirement. in fact, 77% say they feel on track to retire with the lifestyle they want. the most of any generation. though 69% of them worry about outliving their savings. on the other hand, gen x-ers in

their mid 40s and 50s are the most steady savers with 80% of them saving consistently, but they are also the least likely to feel on track. one reason may be they've seen a lot of the market turmoil in their lifetimes, and they may not be as confident that their retirement savings is going to last. but overall, workers are feeling better about retirement savings than their employ years. 68% of workers say they are on track, while just 58% of plan sponsors said the same thing. so, blackrock says employers and plan sponsors are more concerned about the impact of longevity on their employees, and worried they may not have enough income for their retirement years, melissa. >> so, the poll is interesting in terms of how it was phrased. feeling ready, because i feel like as you get older, you are more aware that you don't have enough. so, maybe they feel less ready because, in fact, they are less ready and you feel good because you don't really have any idea of all the costs involved when you are a real grownup.

>> exactly right. and if you just started working and you've had ten years of working, you've had ten years of market gains, you're thinking, this is great, it's going to continue, and it's not. they're not thinking about having to take care of older parents, or having adult children that they're still paying for, as well. there's so many different things that are weighing on them. >> people don't realize, and sharon is -- she's royalty, too, i mean -- >> yes, on the -- >> that mountain. >> mount everest with the faces -- >> rushmore. >> i didn't realize -- what's the max you can put into retirement -- >> $30,500. that's one thing that black rom fo said, people don't realize you can make a catchup contribution to your 401(k) and ira, and if you do that $7,500 catchup contribution, you can put up to $30,500 into your 401(k), extra

$1,000, brings you up to $8,000. people don't realize. >> good tips. shirn, sharon, thank you so much. up next, final trades. sharpen, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley - [narrator] we just shipped our millionth from wherever you are. monthly coffee subscription box so we're sending custom thank you gifts to our team. our custom ink rep is just as excited as we are and knows what great quality products to get. celebrate your milestones with custom gear. get started today at customink.com. (man 1) can you hear me now? can you hear me now? can you hear me now? (dj) can you hear me now?

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we've got a news alert on novo nordisk. the fda has declined to approve its once weekly insulin injection. it says it does not expect to be able to answer all the requests before the end of the year. this is a drug that's been approved in other markets, like the eu and japan. time for the final trade. around the horn we go. tim? >> no question about gold, and no question with gold miners, they go higher. >> karen? >> yes, i know normally an election season isn't a great time for pharmaceuticals, but i do like merck.

quality of the bunch. >> dan? >> yeah, as rate cut odds increase, i think you look at utilities. >> wow. utilities from dan. guy? >> you've always been our -- >> oh, nice. >> i hope you continue to guide it. see what i did there? >> good one. newmont my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. mad money starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. welcome to cramerica. my job is not just to entertain, but put it all on entertainment. so call me or tweet me. the trillion dollar stock club is hard to join. we've got pl