sheer contrast today was remarkable. >> we did get some headlines from chicago fed president goolsby, calling today's inflation report, quote, excellent. we did see a mixed picture for the markets after the nasdaq and the s&p both hit intraday records, finishing the day lower, but we talked about it all hour. russell 2,000, strong day today. that does it for us at "overtime." >> “fast money” starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. heading for the exit? rates tumble today, investors who have flooded into the mag seven software stocks and the obesity names, they all raced for the door. we'll break down where the herd migrated and if this is a move that has staying power. plus, hitting the brakes. tesla delaying the much-hiked robo-taxi event. plus, a crypto darling

announcing a stock split, and the nfl commissioner weighs in on giving private equity a seat at the table. we start with the great rate retreat. a softer than expected inflation report. the ten-year falling below 4.2%, while the two-year was under 4.5% at its low. that after then consumer price index fell a tenth of a percent from may to june. the first month over month decline since april 2020. markets now seeing a 90 % plus chance of a rate cut by september. sharply higher than just a day ago. the move lowering yields, boosting rate sensitive sectors like housing, banks, retail, bio tech, small caps. the home builder etf jumping more than 6%. best day since november 2022. the russell 2,000 hitting its highest level since march. all that made sense. on the other hand, the recently red hot megacap tech stocks did

not catch a bid from the drop in rates. a.i. darling nvidia dropping 5.5%. apple snapping a seven-day streak of record closes. so, is this kind of green light for investors to exit what have been very crowded, profitable trades and rotate into some of the laggards in the market, guy? >> when you see price action like this, the answer is yes, and again, you know, we've brought up march 8th a bunch of times in terms of nvidia. you brought up broadcom. i mean, that march 8th reversal in nvidia actually worked. by middle of april, the stock was down 24%. individual stock wise, the same thick on june 20th in that name, and by the way, it's never recovered. when you see a move like this, the magnitude of the reversal in the s&p, which by the way today made an all-time high and effect lively closed on the low. that's got to give you some pause for the overall broader market. so, i think the big names are vulnerable for the first time in awhile, and for the first time in awhile, you're starting to see technicals that suggest that

the broader market might be in for a bit of a selloff. >> i know what you did last summer. remember that one? >> no. is that a movie? >> yeah. >> last summer, heading into q-2 earnings season, we saw similar sort of sentiment, you know, really positive in a lot of these big names. now, granted, they're all up a lot more year over year since then. and the nasdaq and the s&p were making new highs today, before these huge reversals. and so, when you think about just how investors are positioned, it's not too different, as we do into q-2 earnings season this year. and it might be just as good as it gets right now, especially if you see any sort of deceleration for q-3 or the back half of this year, as it relates to guidance. so, it probably makes some sense to kind of take some profits here, roll into some of the other things. it's really interesting that the s&p closed down less than 1%. we saw how the equal weight s&p traded, and i think we're just going to mention the russell 2,000. if you look at the performance there. so, a clear rotation. but at some point, if you start

getting softer economic data, okay, and we start seeing some guidance from some of these consumer-led companies, i think the correlations are going to go much higher, and the last thing i'll just say, the fact that the vix was unchanged today tells you that there's not a lot of fear as it relates to the broad market. >> grasso, this is sort of what you want to happen ahead of earnings season, right? you want sort of the -- a little bit of air to come out of the tires of the hotter trades before we get, you know, results from nvidia and microsoft. >> yeah, you always want a better entry point. i think, you know, if you go back, the iwm's outperformance today over the nasdaq or the s&p, it's the biggest outperformance dating back to november or so, 2020. so, this is not an insignificant event. it's does this last longer than a day or two? so, the market wants to believe that we could usher into those smaller cap names. the problem is the smaller cap

names need a lower rate environment. do -- this is the first time that the market seems to believe that the fed is going to cut ra rates really in the -- in the near term, versus something where they say, okay, we're leaning more dovish at this point. so, september, i still think they're behind the curve. they should have been cutting before, but i think september, as you mentioned, 90% odds, and i think they probably cut again a couple more times this year. having said that, let's see if this lasts longer than two or three days. because i have a feeling money will rush right back into those megacap names again. >> i guess the question really is, tim, now that we are 90% sure that this is actually going to happen in september, and by the way, we're getting some comments from austin goolsby is saying, this is what a path to 2% inflation looks like, this is exactly what you want to have here, do we start trading for a lower interest rate environment?

and what does that mean? does it mean that the tech stocks can't really the way they have? does it mean that we won't see the torrid advances that we've put in the books? >> well, i think goolsbee thought we had 2% inflation for a long time. i'd listen to powell this week, though, when he did say, if we get more good data, that gives us more confidence that we're moving kwcloser to 2%. there's no way they're going before september. they will go in september, based on the data we have today. but i think a lot of the reaction today is just a result of momentum trades gone wild. and, yeah, i mean, we can come up with all the stats that are extraordinary, which is a 720-basis point outperformance by small caps to the semis. so, the worst performer against the best performer, and you can see it, you can see it in the dollar, you can see it in gold. you can see it in rates. you can see it in the yen. you can see it in places where we've had extreme positioning. and i think a dynamic also that just at least supports the view that the fed certainly, their

most aggressive days are behind us. i'm not chasing small caps or housing stocks here. housing stocks, if anything, to me, we talk about this every day, so, i think once you get people back into the market, prices get marked down. i think you actually have things, you know, prints that hit the tape that show that some of these asset classes are going to be under pressure. this was a day when the biggest victims of higher for longer rallied, as a sigh of relief. and that included some of the restaurant stocks and the apparel stocks. look at the move in retail overall. i don't think that changes the story for the consumer. i don't think this changes the story for where most of the earnings growth is coming from in the s&p. so, yeah, i think it's very healthy for the market. it's nice to see it. let's see what banks do tomorrow. we have finally an earnings season to digest this. but i just think this is the result of some extreme positioning. and that -- i think dan referenced the vix, i think it's right, and i think -- i'm not

sure i'd be running out the door on megacap tech stocks today. >> i mean, you almost might want to throw in banks into the extreme positioning when it comes to the move you've seen lately. expectations are extremely high they are going to declare an inflection point for nii in the third quarter. >> and basil three and the seemingly less restreckivictive policy. austin clearly doesn't buy car insurance, because that was up 1 19.5%. he hasn't gone to the hospital, that's up 7%. all the inflationary things are still there. that's why people are so exorcised about what's going on. and the stock market's not the economy. and now it's 39 months in a row that inflation in the form of cpi has been 3% or greater. he's going to be right at some point, good for him. price action does matter. and again, as i mentioned, you saw some -- you saw something on june 20th you haven't seen in awhile and you clearly saw something today and i'll throw

this in the mix, because why not. if you can close tomorrow below 5564 or so in the s&p, which is not far away, not only do you have an outside day, you have an outside week in the s&p to the downside, which is something we haven't seen in quite some time. >> i find the price action very curious in some of the largest names today. definitely a bit overdone in the very near term, but the fact that some of these names closed on the dead lows, nvidia is one of them. tesla is another. it makes you believe there's probably going to be some followthrough, and i just went back and i looked at the nasdaq i 100, i think of the performance off the covid lows, march of 2020, and i think about it, it's like, the nasdaq 100 was up 140%. sold off as soon as the fed signaled they were going to start raising interest rates. now, no one thought that they were going to be raising as far as they did, up 550 basis points or whatever, and then we sold off 35% to the lows in 2022, right? then we had this huge rally, you

know, since then, and so, when you think about how much further we are along, you think about how much multiple expansion is in that, you say to yourself, listen, we could be setting up now that rates are going lower, we've seen the data, is that stocks act pretty well in that period between the last hike and the first cut, and i think on average, going back 50 years or so, when the fed starts cutting rates, i think there's a decline, 12 months out, on average of about 10% or so. and some of those are bigger than they were, let's say, in the ' 80s and the '70s of late. >> when you hear mike wilson say a 10% correction, increasingly hearing that in the third quarter, it's going to be volatile, because of the election, the timing in the rate cycle. we've also -- we're talking about inflation, the path to 2%. part of the path is the inflation side of it. that's what powell had addressed in his testimony in front of the house and in front of the senate, steve, and that is, you know, there are two risks here. the risk from inflation, which

seems to be abating at this point, especially with the cpi print, but the unemployment risk, which is still not necessarily -- we can't really declare that abating right now, at all. >> yeah, and, you know, it was -- as soon as the labor market starts to get tapped, that's what's going to make powell really start to put his foot on the gas as far as cuts are concerned. and that's what they want to stay away from. they want to keep that soft landing in tact. those long and variable lags i think are really starting to set in. a third of cpi are housing costs. so, you really need to see that -- and i think that the fed is actually to blame partially for that, because rates are staying high, owners equivalent rent staying high, rent staying high, so, a third of that number is really based on where rates are right now. seasonality, melissa, with july as we've all stated, the first two weeks are the most bullish time of the year for the

markets, but after that, because about $9 billion gets put to work, most of it is passively in the markets. after that, it gets a little bit easier for the market to sell off. you have seasonality working against you, if you are a bull, in august, september, and october. so, you could see a pull-back within the markets. >> yeah. and tim, you know, when you take a look at some of the big cap tech trades, it's sort of -- i don't want to say dangerous, i don't want to make any judgments here, but the expectations being so high and the price action, the neck any call technicals of being not good, it's a terrible combination here. >> it's not great. and we know $340 billion in capex is spent, and we don't know what it leads to yet. let's watch. i think today was a very important day for markets. we haven't seen anything like this in a long time. let's get more on rates and

inflation with priya. welcome to "fast money." >> thank you. >> has your outlook changed at all based on today's print? >> so, it hasn't changed, but like chair powell said, the fed is looking for more confidence. we have more confidence. we expect the first cuts in september and a series of cuts after that. i think we're going to stop talking about, when is it going to start, to how much are they going to cut? and, you know, are these soft landing cuts -- soft landing cuts are very, very rare. the only time we've seen it is in '95, where they cut 75 basis points, the market's pricing in cuts all the way to 3.5. i think even in a soft landing, they can cut to 3%. and what if that labor market does continue to weaken? then they're cutting a lot more. do they cut quickly enough? i think that's what the market is grappling with. the fixed income market heard that report, interest rates

fell, and i think that's the start. now we start to price in these rate cuts and the totality of that easing cycle. >> are equity valuations telling you anything about the fixed income market or vice versa? and just curious, because, again, we know that valuations are not a good timing tool, but it seems that they're kind of extreme in a handful of names that represent a disproportionate amount of the earnings growth. san and if we saw deceleration, we'd see it come in. >> i would argue there's value across the board. it's because a lot of the fixed income investors have been out of the fixed income market. because you are negative real rates, interest rates were zero for a long period of time. then when we had the rate increases, there was this fear that inflation might resurface, might be sticky, the fed still might hike. i think all that money has been, you know, sitting on the sidelines. so, we see value in investment, in high yield, in security credit. so, when i look at the equity

markets, it tells me positioning, positioning is highly concentrated in the few sectors. i look at the fixed income market and i see a sea of opportunities as that -- as we start to realize that these yields of 5%, 6%, we're not getting that as the fed starts to cut rays. i think you'll see that investors are starting to look for value across the board. >> when we got to march, we reached the longest inversion since they started counting, i think it was longer than the '78 to '80 period. we're in july now, i think we're 28 or so basis points. but it appears as though we're going to resteepen. i think we got down to 13 basis points this year. what does it mean? is it a good thing, or historically, it has not been such a great thing for equity markets. >> so, i think inverted yield curves are weird, but -- and the market's been, you know, dealing with that, which is why your question is valid. i think the question is, how much can we steepen? as long as we start to disinvert or get to more normal levels, the front end really now as the

fed starts to cut rates and we think, they can cut all the way to 3%, the fed's own dot plot suggests 2.75. if they cut that much, the front end has a lot more room to fall, the long end not as much. that's a normal yield curve. i think you can start to look at every other market and say which areas benefit from a steep yield curve. i think a steep yield curve is good. but we have to be careful if it's steepening too much. that's a sign of recession. that's bad. i would say small steepening is actually good for certain sectors. you start to steepen a lot more, that means the market's getting the -- the rate market is t telling you that something is not that good. recession is always nonlinear. recessions always start off looking like a soft landing. if it steepens too much. i don't think, you know, 50 basis points, that's concerning for any market. >> and just quickly, you mentioned the market starting to price in now the totality of the cuts. we know that they are going to start. what are you telling ing clien do you think we're going to

price that in very quickly, are we going to see that being priced into the rates market very quickly? >> i think we're sort of -- we're near end of cycle. but the end of cycle can last for awhile. and can we -- we're in a soft landing right now. can the soft landing persist? so, what we're telling clients, we're in a soft landing right now, think about, you know, locking in these -- the yields. the fed's likely to cut to 3.5% or 3%. if things slow down faster, you want to hedge your risk assets. and that's when you want duration risk. i think correlations are coming back. we haven't had any stock correlations for a long time. they're back because the fed's telling you the inflation fear is on the side, and now they're willing to respond, if things slow down. so, i think we -- you know, to your question, will we price it in quickly? we have retail sales next week. if that's weak, we price it in very quickly, the market's going to start to say, why can't the fed cut three times this year, why can't they cut 50 basis points in december? so, depending on the data surprises, and end of cycles can

turn very quickly, i think the market can be really fast. if the data remains resilient, earnings season is good, the consumer continues to spend, i think then rates market is probably fair. >> priya, thank you. >> thank you. >> tim, that means that the next few prints, retail sales, jobs, et cetera, they will be key in terms of how investors perceive this market. >> yeah, and i think we go from a case where inflation, with the fed's dual mandate being inflation and full employment, had clearly been a focus on inflation and we'll see where employment comes in. you could still have sticky inflation and it could really suffer. so, yes, i totally agree. priya's point is fascinating in that we -- we could be mid cycle. depending on who we ask, we could be early cycle to mid cycle, but it could very quickly move to late cycle. and that's what's been so interesting about this period, that people have universally gotten wrong in terms of the

impact of one of the most aggressive fed hiking periods in history, and what it would do to the consumer and what it would do to spending. i think that is what will happen. i think we'll go from a place where we're surprised by the duration of this market, and the duration of the economy and a soft landing. so maybe not so soft. and i think the market's disposition will be to be very fearful of prints in retail sales and the labor market that show weakness. all right, we're less than 90 minutes away from president biden's first press conference since last month's debate. he takes the stage as more democratic members of congress call for the president to bow out of the race. emily wilkins has the very latest on this. emily? >> hey, melissa. biden's campaign to keep the confidence of members of his own party is not going very well. just in the past few hours, another four congressional democrats have spoken up publicly, saying that biden should withdraw. and others have registered serious concerns with biden's ability to continue. so, the most recent four

congr congressmen. now, scholten has one of the more difficult re-elections, and she said in a statement, quote, with the challenges facing our country in 2025 and beyond, it is essential that we have the strongest possible candidate leading the top of the ticket -- not just to win, but to govern. now, this brings the total number of lawmakers who are publicly calling on biden to withdraw up to 14, but many more have voiced serious concerns in private, and even congressional leaders have so far kept most of their statements on biden vague, as they've been listening to rank and file members this week and are now trying to take everything they've heard and relay to biden's team. biden's top advisers met with senators for more than an hour today, laying out their strategy for winning in november. richard blumenthal told us that biden's team did not fully alleviate his concerns. >> some of my concerns are allayed. some others have been deepened.

i need more of the kind of analytics that show the path to success. >> lawmakers told me they will be watching biden's press conference this evening, but several stressed to me today that it is not just about having a one good public appearance, but having a long-ranging plan, both to beat trump come november and gain the courage and confidence of the american people back. melissa? >> there are increasing reports that there's sort of polling, vice president harris, to see if she's going to stack up better against trump. what are you hearing about the various alternate candidates, vice president harris, of course, but also others that may fill out the ticket? >> well, melissa, nbc has confirmed that the biden campaign is looking at harris and how she would poll, and to a certain extent, harris would have an advantage, because she would really be able to immediately tap into all of that in infrastructure, all of the fund-raising that the biden campaign has. and so, that is a major

advantage for her. she's pretty well known at this point, having been vice president for the last four years. but at the same point, a lot of members who i'm seeing, a lot of them, you know, they like kamala harris, but they're not willing to say, okay, she should, indeed, be the nominee. a lot of them seem to be leaving it open, of course, there are a number of other very strong con tes or thes who could jump into a potential race. you have a number of governors from swing states who really know how to appeal to republican and independent voters, which is going to be absolutely critical. and i think at this point, everyone is just kind of focused on biden himself, and then, of course, the question is, what happens next if he does decide to withdraw? >> emily, thank you. emily wilkins on this developing story here. the conventional thinking is that a trump win, a trump administration, would be better for the markets. so, steve, if there is a change in the democratic ticket, which could then strengthen the down-ballot elections, as well. what does that do, in your view?

>> well, if there's an idea that trump has a better chance of winning now and then down-ballot, the real choice is, do you have grid lock government or do you have one party come in with a wave? and if, to your point, if trump can perform and help the down ballot candidates perform, then the republicans take the senate and if they can hold the house, which seemed unlikely a couple of weeks ago, and seems likely, then republicans will have total control and then you don't see those tax cuts roll off in the next year and a half or so. so that is deemed as positive to the market. so, you don't really know who -- and the only candidate, melissa, that can really come in is vp harris. that's the only way that you can get that money that president biden has built up. so far, to go straight to her, newsom would get it, no other candidate would be entitled to

it. tesla snapping its 11-day winning streak in a very big way. the latest headlines that had investors unplugging, next. delta sinking in today's session. the turbulence in their earnings report that had shares heading n'go a dot nywhere. "fast money" is back in two. (laughter) at 88 years old, we still see the world with the wonder of new eyes, helping you discover untapped possibilities and relentlessly working with you to make them real. old school grit. new world ideas. morgan stanley.

when we're young, we're told anything is possible... ...but only a few of us go out and prove it. witness the greatness of anna hall on a connection worthy of gold: xfinity mobile. only xfinity gives you the most powerful mobile wifi network, with speeds up to a gig in millions of locations. and right now, get up to $800 off the new galaxy z flip6 and z fold6 when you trade in your current phone. get the fastest connection to paris with xfinity.

welcome back to "fast money." tesla shares snapping their 11-day winning streak in a big way today, dropping nearly 8.5% on news it is delaying the launch of its highly anticipated robo-taxi. according to bloomberg, the ev maker is pushing the reveal originally slated for august 8th back to october. tesla stock was up early in the day, hitting its highest levels since last september, but finished as today's worst performer in the s&p 500. shares of uber and liyft gettin a boost. interesting here, i mean, the thinking, according to one analyst report that i read is that if they're pushing it because they're pushing it to make more prototypes, if they make more prototypes, that will buy that they're going to be rides, actual rides. that may actually be a better event and a bigger catalyst for -- i'm not going to go to you first because you're going to poo poo everything. >> that's the bull case, right? 100%. and the stock performance has

been remarkable, since the lows we saw a few months ago. it was up almost 90%. we saw a similar move, by the way, a year and a half, two years ago. the bull case, absolutely makes sense. we had a conversation a month or so ago, when i think there were two analyst calls, one with a $200 price target. one with $125, 1$170. both were going to be right. i didn't think we were going to $250. the earnings report on the 23rd of july is going to be really important. if you continue to see contractions in margin, i this i the stock heads right back down. >> it's interesting. this announcement for the robo-taxi event for august 8th came out april 5th, right after we got q-1 deliveries, which were down jigt right horrible. the stock was trading horribly, near 52-week lows. >> a tactic? >> the narrative went for, okay, the auto business is really constrained. we've known that. we've known that margins is coming down, and elon did what elon does. so, he came out with -- they're

not ready for it. we talked about it. when the announcement came out that tesla diverted thousands and thousands of h-100 high end gpus from nvidia over to x.5ai, if all these other things that people want to value this company on, they can't use these chips, the robo-taxi isn't happening. the technology that tesla uses to get full self-driving, they need a lot of a.i. capabilities to do that. they're not using it. there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. delta shares hitting some turbulence, as the airlines's results disspoipt. more on those numbers and how the traders are handling the airline space. plus, pfizer's obesity ambitions, hoping to get in on the red hot weight loss drug game. the pill they're pushing, and how it stacks up against the competition. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site

in times square. we're back right after this.

- custom ink helps us motivate our students with custom gear. we love how custom ink takes care of everything we need, so we can focus on the kids. - [narrator] custom ink has hundreds of products to help you feel connected. upload your logo or start your design today at customink.com welcome back to "fast money." delta shares down 4%, despite

posting record revenue, as the airline saw earnings drop 30% in the latest quarter. the company gave disappointing guidance amid higher costs and discounted fares. phil below spoke with ed bastian today. he expects unit remove thes for the company will turn positive in september. delta, tim, is the best of them. they've got more premium seating, they make a lot off their loyalty program. and this is what happened to them. >> yeah, well, again, airlines is the greatest trading stocks in the market, and sometimes you dance by the door. delta, a 75% move from october, through the highs in may at some point, the stock's pulled back. intraday, it was a 20% pull-back off those numbers. it was the third quarter guide that was terrible. and it gets back to what we worry about airlines. when the getting started to get good, capacity increases, and inefficiencies go down, margins go down, and at some point, it's a lot harder to change that dynamic. that's exactly what we got here. there's also a new post-pandemic

dynamic just in terms of seasonality. second quarter, a lot better than third quarter. and that's also what we heard. so, i think -- yes, best of the group gives you this kind of guide, it puts pressure on the space. i think you're going to get delta a little bit lower, but at some point, you're buying this one, because it is the best airline of the bunch and the margins are fine. the balance sheet's great. >> southwest and american already guided lower, steve, so -- are they -- i don't want to say safe, but -- has some of this been priced in? >> yeah, you want to get a better -- you want to let the first one who reports take it on the chin, so to speak, and the rest have a better entry point when they report. but to tim's point, this is -- they've made more than 50%, as you said, on their loyalty program, and on premium seats. same thing, roughly, with ual. and when you look at a premium air airline, you want to go to the

international travel. when you came out of the pandemic, they beefed up, they bought a lot more planes, they had to keep up with demand, they bought bigger planes, they have better seating, so -- there's a whole thesis behind why they thought they were going to be successful. the market got ahead of itself. i would stick with the international-facing airlines versus the can domestic ones, because i think those are going to be the ones that recover quicker than the -- the domestic players. coming up, pfizer positivity. the pharma giant higher after encouraging data on its weight loss pill. what does it mean for the sector? that's next. and roger goodell in the hot seat. what he thinks about media rights deals and much more. back in two. (dj) can you hear me now? (runner) stay with me now!

(teens) oooo! (woman 1) mírame ahora! (woman 2) get em now! (roger goodell) we're ready now! (woman 3) have fun! (fan) ooo, pinch me now! (woman 4) save me now! (toddler) let's go now! (woman 5) check me now! (toddler) catch me now! (gamer 1) cmon! (gamer 2) play me now! (toddler) okay, bye now!

- there's no book with all the answers when it comes to raising children, but any book can give them a head start. studies show that reading to your kids ten minutes a day can improve their memory and concentration. so pick a book--any book-- and read. welcome back to "fast money." another contender in the weight loss drug battle may be emerging. pfizer advances early trials for its once daily pill. the pharma giant telling investors it reworked its trials following last year's setback. pfizer shares up a percent, but off the highs of a day. let's bring in jared holz, health care strategist. great to see you. how -- how good is this news? i mean, this drug had been -- i

don't want to say left for dead, but there's real disappointment surrounding that drug when it was in phase 2b and it had to be put back in phase 1. so, how big of a development is this? >> great to see you, too. i think it's a small development. i agree with everything you said, i think they're kind of resuscitating this program in order to still be in the game, but it just doesn't sound like there's that much substance here until they give everyone more information about the clinical data itself, and then, you know, which dose they're going to bring forward, and then over the next six months, it appears like the company strategy is kind of figure out the dosing they're going to use, and then move that forward in a, you know, bigger phase two, phase three trial. so, i think they're still a long ways away. it's a better outcome than shelving the program in total, but i'm just not sure it's legitimate yet.

>> the drug, they say that to date they've treated more than 1,400 patients with this, and there are no serious safety concerns. does that -- can we then infer that, you know, the profile that they had before where they had a lot of nausea, a lot of vomiting and that's why they sort of, you know, shelved the program temporarily, that that's abated, they figured a way out? >> yeah, they must have solved something here, i mean, when you go through the press release and you dig deeper here, i think the -- maybe the biggest disparity between what they said today and what they've said in the past is that they're going to switch this from a twice a day pill to once a day. and maybe just that very factor and a lower dose is leading to less side effects. i think that makes a lot of sense, but what they're also saying is that they're working on some sort of modified

release, which we don't exactly know what that means either, in this sense, but there's something about the way that the drug interacts with the body over time during the course of the day, that probably makes it safer. so, we'll see, but yeah, it's obviously, you know, more inspiring today than it has been. >> hey, jared, it's tim. go browns, by the way, and i guess the way the market responded today is ultimately how you are assessing what this headline is. so, if you look at the stock, and as traders, we can see that pfizer -- you're not a trader, but as a trader, i can see that the stock is now above the 200 day, after a horrendous period. it's done some basing. there's some dynamics with the company. let's talk about the bigger picture. let's talk about whether there is decent risk-reward in this stock, and where at least in terms of the current pipeline, you feel like there's the most reason for optimism. >> hey, tim. yeah, i know you've liked this

one for awhile, i agree, i think it's rebasing here. i think the main reason is because -- what we kind of saw on the back of the first quarter h earnings was that the numbers that pfizer put up were better than its initial guidance. and so, i think the street kind of extrapolated that and what they did is, they moved the earnings estimates forward a little bit, or higher, rather, and that's giving people more confidence that you're going to get potential beats and raises on the earnings line through the course of this year and maybe next year. so, a lot of the buy side, i think the view now is that estimates are too low. guidance is too conservative, and some of the cost-cutting measures and drug launches that they have in concert are leading to better earnings. so, instead of the original guidance that they gave, maybe there's a little bit of upside this year and next year, and so, i this i nk that's kind of put floor on the stock. the $25 to $27 range. and it really hasn't gotten

lower than that. so, i agree. it's probably rebasing. today's news helps it fundamentally, but if you are just looking at this as far as a pe multiple and a higher earnings number, i think that's what's really helping. >> jared, thank you. >> great to see you, thank you. >> jared holz. all right, guy. >> guess he couldn't make it, in jared. something better to do? >> he could be in another city or country. >> he dropped in to say hi. look at the ibb. throw up a chart. two-year high. four stocks, 32%. we talk about them, regeneron, amgen is in there. it's having a day. if money starts to flow out of the big cap tech names. one of the places it's going to wind up is in bio tech. i think you stay with that trade here. especially gilead. raymond james just put a $93 price target on it. >> there's an argument that it should get some credit for its weight loss drug. but what we saw today, going back to the top of the show, grasso, money flowing out of the

most crowded trades, that's eli lilly and novo nordisk. we're seeing this within the sector a little bit here. >> yeah, those -- they really have to -- they're the nvidias, right? the -- lilly and the novo are the nvidias of the biotech space. you should see some money come out and use those as cash machines, but the problem is, they're the ones who have c cornered the market. i think it's ironic, when you look at pfizer's chart, it's given up all of the vaccine from covid benefit. so, you look at the chart, you go back five years, it's trading right around those, that march 2020 low in the stock, so, they're looking to replace that income, and a lot of people are looking for an alternative to giving themselves a shot, and looking to take an oral pill, and it's not a bad entry point for pfizer, but they're definitely late, they're definitely lagging. lilly and novo are the places where people want to be. coming up, a few earnings reports from this morning catching our attention.

how our traders are looking at the move in pepsi. and sports streaming come into focus at the sun valley focus. what nfl commissioner roger goodell had to say about rights, partnerships, and private equity. much more "fast money"n o. itw

welcome back to "fast money." two consumer staple names on the move after reporting results this morning. pepsi posting a revenue miss and narrowing its revenue outlook for the full year. shares had been down more than 3% early in the day, but finished in the green. conagra missing and projecting lower profit, as weak demand continues to weigh on sales. both stocks in the red so far this year. what do these stocks have in common? people don't want to pay high prices anymore. they can't raise prices anymore. volumes are coming down, tim. there's a push-back, across income levels, according to pepsi, too. it's not just low end. >> yeah. no, i -- there's just -- i don't eat fritos right now. and i do think you have a case where at some point things get interesting. the valuation has come down substantially, but they also, cpg and certain parts of the snack space were also in that sweet spot that discretionary

was during covid. and you saw pepsi believe with that pricing power. they were almost boasting their ability to pass on prices. at this point, i think they have multiple quarters of headwinds on that. so, i think you're going to get lower. if you look at a five-year chart, you start to assess some of those trends. ultimately, assess the valuation from where we were on a p pre-covid base sis and i think you can trade down one or two turns. i like the story. staples and cpg are going to get interesting. just not yet. >> steve? >> yeah, wasn't this the ozempic effect, though, when we first started talking about weakness here and the next level was, to your point, shrinkflation. pepsi, i could find, i could maybe create some support in the name, if i look at both of these charts, nothing makes me excited about them, but they are at levels where in theory, they should bounce. so maybe, as tim said, maybe you can get it a little bit lower, but they look like they are right where they should be bouncing on the chart.

>> you think it looks interesting? >> 160, pepsi is a big level. i think to steve's point. i'm with more in tim's camp, though. organic growth has always been sort of code word for, we're going to pass our inflation costs to you and you're going to suck it up and take it. now they can't do it. to your other point. organic growth was 1.9%. well short of street expectations. and revenue was a miss. so, this is, i think this is the beginning of something, not necessarily the end. >> do not miss jim cramer's exclusive interview with the conagra ceo. coming up, sport rights in sun valley. julia boorstin sat down with roger goodell. what he had to say about the future of sports streaming. morefa meyinwo "ston" t.

dave's company just scored the

comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. high five! high five... -i'm on a call. it's 5 years of reliable, gig speed internet... five years of advanced security... five years of a great rate that won't change. yep, dave's feeling it. yes. but it's only for a limited time. five years? -five years. introducing the comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. powering 5 years of savings. powering possibilities. welcome back to "fast money." sports and media are taking center stage at the allen and company conference in sun valley, idaho. cnbc's julia boorstin sat down with roger goodell earlier today. hey, julia. >> reporter: hi, melissa. that's right. i spoke exclusively with nfl commissioner goodell, who made a lot of news. he defended the nfl's decision to appeal its defeat in the class action lawsuit against the

distribution of sunday ticket, saying, quote, we're committed to following the litigation all the way. and i asked him why the nfl added yet another streaming partner in addition to sunday ticket on youtube, and amazon with thursday night games, to now include christmas day games on netflix. >> i think the platforms that we've chosen, between netflix, amazon, youtube, are great platforms that are going to be around for a long time. and that's why we chose them. we think they're going to attract better content, that includes sports, and we think live sports has never been in a better position. >> commissioner goodell also revealed that they are making progress in their talks to allow private equity investments in nfl teams. he said they would cap ownership at 10%. melissa, that's a lot lower than the 30% that's more typical for pe ownership. >> yeah, julia, thank you. julia boorstin, a beautiful sun valley, idaho. she looks like she's in front of a painting. >> fantastic.

what we were just saying about her? how much we admire her, how much we respect her work. seriously. we had that conversation. >> we were just having that conversation. >> just saying. you want me to trade this? >> yes, streaming on -- >> netflix -- pull up a netflix chart. we talked about how netflix is going to get in sports, not sports necessarily. karen on tuesday, if you recall, said she was taking some profits. look, she might have top ticked that sucker. if you go back and look, we traded up to the levels we saw i think in the fall of 2021. so, netflix is clearly the play. but you might have a bit of a double top here. >> netflix, really interesting. that subscriber number was disappointing when they reported q-1, so, you have to keep a close eye on that. but i think we all agree, the way that stock filled in that gap to the downside after earnings was pretty powerful. you have to think investors are thinking out a little bit towards the second half of the year. they're going to move really big into live stuff and i think that's interesting. all right, up next, final trades.

(♪♪) car, this isn't the way home. that's right james, it isn't. car, where are we going? we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!! the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. car, were you in on this? nothing gets by you james. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com (reporters) over here. kev! kev! (reporter 1)nt objectives, any response to the tradees rumors, we keep hearing about? (kev) we talkin' about moving? not the trade, not the trade, we talking about movin'. no thank you. (reporter 2) you could use opendoor. sell your house directly to them, it's easy. (kev) ... i guess we're movin'.

switch to shopify so you can build it better, scale it faster and sell more. much more. take your business to the next stage when you switch to shopify.

final trade time. tim? >> break up the mets, first of all. nice to see marcus stroman as the closer in -- excuse me, as the stopper up in the bronx. anyway, ewg, the dollar weaker today, international trades are definitely starting to move. i think today might have been a catalyst. >> steve grasso? >> smurfit west roc deal makes them one of the largest paper and packaging company. different symbol, sw, same great potential. >> dan nathan? >> yeah, pfizer. if this thing gets any traction in the glp-1s, it looks like

it's ready to party. tim's pfizer. >> guy? >> be sure to catch cnbc's melissa lee tomorrow, 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. on "squawk box." you are killing it this week. you know what else is killing it this week? check out letter m, sister. >> all right, thank you for watching "fast." see you on "squawk." "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to a special shortened edition of "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to educate but to teach. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. of course tweet me @jimcramer. cnbc will be bringing you live coverage of president biden's press conf