it's ready to party. tim's pfizer. >> guy? >> be sure to catch cnbc's melissa lee tomorrow, 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. on "squawk box." you are killing it this week. you know what else is killing it this week? check out letter m, sister. >> all right, thank you for watching "fast." see you on "squawk." "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to a special shortened edition of "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to educate but to teach. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. of course tweet me @jimcramer. cnbc will be bringing you live coverage of president biden's press conference at 6:30.

but first, what do you do when the house of pleasure -- >> house of pleasure. >> -- because the house -- >> the house of pain. >> what do you do when the house of pain -- >> the house of pain. >> -- changes to a much better address moving right next door to the bull statue on wall street? that's exactly what happened today in this stock market. when investors abandoned tech. and when i say abandoned i mean people fled from the group like rats from a sinking ship. it was titanic. they took their money and went all in on the small and medium size companies, we would call the russell 2000 because we got a much softer than expected consumer price index a number that shows inflation is effectively beaten and interest rates are coming down. and that changes the whole backdrop. it's why the dow ended up 32 points, s&p lost .8% and the nasdaq, home of the trillion-dollar techs, plummeted a staggering 1.95%.

causing lots of people to say it's over. more on that in a second. the real action, though, was in the bond market where interest rates really plun ged in recognition the fed may have finally whipped inflation which means fed chief jay powell can start giving us rate cuts in the not too distant future. people don't buy the same stocks when rates are plunging that they do when rates are doing nothing or inching higher. still how does that caused big stocks to get on lilt raitted? how can apple lose 2%? microsoft fall 2.5%. and holy heck, batman, what explains nvidia's 5.5% dive? first you have to understand that sometimes the stock market can switch directions on a dime. >> sell sell -- buy buy -- sell sell. >> typically that happens when the much larneller bond market does something extreme. with the new context of lower bond yields all sorts of stocks that haven't been doing well this year, stocks of companies that need lower rates can suddenly get bid up, be bought because that's what happens when

rates go down. what happened today always happens when rates plunge. make no mistake about it. today was what we call a first-class rotation where the market abandons, more accurately mows down the former winners and simultaneously anoints the former losers. even if the companies in question haven't changed one bit since last night. let me use this moment to teach you about rotations. first when you see an extreme rally in bond prices pushing yields lower that will always, always, always ignite some stocks. the ones that are suffering from the withering interstitial machine gun fire that happens when rates are all at higher levels. stocks like the home builders which have been just punished endlessly by sky-high mortgage rates. for example, i've repeatedly told you that i liked toll brothers and lennar. when i do that, i recognize that they truly thrive. they can't go up until rates go down. but then they really thrive. you always need some stocks that

are worth buying if rates which have been on the fence suddenly make a decisive move lower. why? because when bond yields go down mortgage rates go down too. and that translates directly into more demand for housing. this isn't just a road map, people. anything housing today, from home depot and lowe's to rh and williams sonoma, those stocks went crazy. it's like they make ai chips or something. only a few weeks ago most people thought the home building stocks had peaked because their numbers weren't as strong as expected. their whole cohort was just destroyed. laid to waste. now with a very cool cpi reading like we got at 8:30 this morning this very important indicator for the fed is flashing green. if we keep getting data like that i wouldn't be surprised if we get not just one but two or even three rate cuts. not just that september cut that people are speculating about. but when you get that many rate cuts your portfolio needs some stocks to soar when rates come down. stocks like the home builders. or at least something connected to them like the stocks i just mentioned. let me give you another example. i've been assuming interest

rates would eventually come down because we keep seeing these brown shoots i talk about every night, signs of softness that tell you the economy's weaker than expected. last night i recommended buying weyerhaeuser, for heaven's sake. one of the nation's largest lumber companies. because its stock had been in freefall along with the price of lumber. but if anything positive happens with interest rates i'll tell you that weyerhaeuser could soar. what happened today, it went up 5%. by the same token we've been telling members of the cnbc investing club that even though stanley black & decker may be terribly out of fashion its stock is a buy. again, this tool -- this too. it's going to make out like a bandit with lower rates. this stock rallied 4.6%. they couldn't give it away last week. okay. so now this is what you have to think about if you're me, telling you. does this make any sense at all? any at all? not today, no. but if rates keep going down these stocks will continue to go higher. the lowe's, the home depots, the

stanley black & decker, williams sonoma. they will go higher. the the bullish bits today were all about trying to catch a multiday rally before it happens, not just getting the gains from a single session. second thing you need to know about rotations, these moves tend to last three days. write that number down. three. that's how long the average rotation works. because as much as it's fine to own some of the stocks that won today they're still not a major core of the market. in the end i prefer major r investing in the major to the minor always. when rates drop they must keep dropping for today's winners to keep working. and i don't think there's you have no date o. on the horizon to keep fueling the bond market's rally. that means even if the stocks are pushed up and the rally broadens out to include many left behind small cap names as well as a smattering of industrials the big tech buyers will be back soon enough after a few more punishing days. why is that? simple. because in reality nothing's really happening at the vast majority of companies whose stocks went higher today. we didn't hear anything positive from most of today's winners. with won't hear anything positive from most of the

winners tomorrow either or monday or tuesday. these stocks have been left behind for a reason. they have things wrong with them. sometimes many things wrong with them. they have wars, they have shortfalls. they need rates to go down rapidly. they need investors to look past their mostly weaker earnings. and that is a very tall order, people, very few money managers have the ability to take the level of pain that they're likely to experience if they stick with these minor core stocks for more than just a couple of days. if you're in them remember that unless you get another huge bond market rally today you likely won't see any more big gains. they're only worth buying if you're prepared to stick with them for the long haul. as we are with stanley black & decker. finally be can you buy the magnificent seven? i heard this all day. by the way, leers what i heard. i heard the magnificent seven was finished. it's finished, done, like forget those. like steve mcqueen, he doesn't even make it. and yul bryner dies in this one. i think now that they're all for sale and you're looking to buy them, the answer is no. absolutely not. when you have this kind of vicious decline that's infected

all the winners you can't expect them to get out of the intensive care unit that they found themselves in today, go into the recovery room and then get picked up and taken immediately into rehab. it takes time to recover from this kind of beatdown. in the meantime their stocks are likely to drift lower not go higher. keep in mientd mega caps are all super stocks but they're not supermen. they're not faster than a speeding bullet, not more powerful than a locomotive, they can't leap tall buildings in a single bound they need some time for heaven's sakes. if you want to buy i say wait a few more days, let's see how they react if the banks report good numbers tomorrow. remember these super stocks have become far more expensive than the rest of the market. days like today are corrective to that. so the worst thing you can do is gun jump. bottom line, i say enjoy the rotation. it's historically broadened things out. and tomorrow you'll get another chance to make money with today's winners. but if interest rates stop going down and stop going down hard then please do not overstay your welcome. because then the rotation will unwind within a few days. the market's major cores will reassert and you'll be saying

jim, nvidia, it's back. let's go to jackson in new york, please. jackson. >> caller: here he is. >> hi, jackson. >> caller: hey, jim. i just had a question on skechers. do you think it's a good time to buy right now? because it's been going down a decent amount recently. >> i have mixed emotions about skechers. it's a boom bust stock. and i've been in it in the boom and it's unbelievable. and i've been in it in the bust and it's so horrible that i can't do it. so i'm going to say no to that one because it's just hurt me too many times. i need to go to rob in california, please. rob. >> caller: hi, jim. greetings from lovely sunny cool marin county, california. >> so beautiful there. >> caller: long, long, long-time listener. first-time caller. >> oh, thank you for getting in touch with us. thank you. >> caller: thank you. jim, i'm looking to open an account for my 16-year-old. >> okay. good idea. >> caller: we're thinking crowdstrike but it's a little frothy. love your thoughts.

>> okay. here's what you're going to do. you're going to buy some crowdstrike now and then you're going to wait three or four days and buy a little bit more. and then you're going to wait a few more days and buy more. you have to buy that stock not all at once. it has to be bought and bought on the way down. george kurtz will deliver for you but you can't ask him to be a superman. stocks are not supermen. they are in the end stocks. but if you buy it on the way down in stages and then just hold it and keep doing the research i think your son will do just fine. so people, i say enjoy the rotation. but it will not last forever. especially if interest rates stop going down and then we just rotate back to the same old same old that i heard all day, we're finished. but i don't think so. on "mad" tonight. glp-1 concerns. today we got a pessimistic report from delta which sent the airline cohort lower. is the whole group just uninvestable? let me give you my take. and later we'll be bringing you president biden's press conference on a special early edition of "last call."

so stay with cramer. >> announcer: don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on x. have a question? tweet cramer. hashtag madmentions. send jim an e-mail to mad money @cnbc.com. or give us a call at 1-800-743-cn. ss something? head to madmoney.cnbc.com.

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this morning we got the first few reports of earnings season including a pair of quarters from the tricky packaged food space. normally you want to buy the food stocks when the economy's slowing down and we know that's happening but their stocks also got out of style when wall street starts anticipating rate cuts from the fed because that makes the boom-bust cyclicals more enticing and certainly makes the housing stocks loved. against that backdrop conagra brands report aid mixed quarter this morning. larger than expected sideline in sales but its margeins and earnings were higher than anticipated. what tipped it is the company gave a conservative full-year forecast which always sent the stock down 1.5% although it did recover from lows. is management simply being prudent or do we need to worry about real weakness ahead? let's check in with sean connolly, the straightshooting president and ceo of conagra brands. i'm always thrilled to have you back on "mad money."

>> hey, jim, thanks for having me. >> sean, you always give us a huge amount of information. i'm going to start at the 30,000-foot level. you have some key messages right up front in your deck. i'm going to read them. sequential volume improvement in domestic retail business. strengthen share position. strong innovation pipeline that continued to resonate with consumers. why would w. those messages, sean, does this stock not go much higher? >> well, i think what you saw in our report today, jim-s while the consumer environment is still not a bed of roses it is continuing to get better. we've been investing in our business to drive a positive inflection in our volumes and we saw that again this quarter for the third quarter in a row, very material inflection. in fact, we saw positive volume consumption overall in our key snacking business, our frozen single serve meal business, our international business and our refrigerated business. very positive trends.

we just started a new fiscal year. we have a couple of businesses left. but we do expect continued volume improvement from here. the good news in my eyes is we've been able to make these investments to improve volume while maintaining, even expanding our margins. and that's key because maximizing our free cash flow is important for our company. our free cash flow conversion in the quarter was 138%. and that's snshlg. it's helping us hit our deleveraging targets clean up our balance sheet get to our long-term goals and that's really good news from the quarter. but we did guide today for the full year ahead. we believe it's prudent to be conservative in our guide, not to try to be heroic. it's been a challenging consumer environment for over a year. we're forecasting that in the future but we're absolutely seeing the volume trend improvements that we're looking for and investors are looking for. it's just that after three years of runaway inflation it's a process to get to a normalized operating environment. it's not an event. and we've been investing to facilitate that process and we like what we're seeing. >> okay, sean, i'm going to go

again to your deck. there's an incredible chart. volume trajectory improved as the year progressed total domestic retail shipments were down 5.2% first half fiscal year '24. you're now looking minus 1 if the 8 but there's an arrow i drew which is you were so clearly on a breakout mode. this is the bottom quarter that we're in. why did you not say we have really fixed up this thing and when he get some more volume we will have huge leverage just you wait. you did not give us that. >> well, we've gotten a lot of feedback from investors that there's no real reward right now to try to be too heroic in our outlook because it has been somewhat of an unpredictable environment to say the least over the last four o'five years. but make no mistake about it. when people look at our portfolio they want to know how we're doing in frozen and in snacking. those are our two key strategic domains. our snack business grew volume consumption in the quarter and our frozen business overall is knocking on the door of volume growth with flat, roughly flat

overall consumption in the quarter but positive volumes in our largest frozen business, which is frozen single serve meals. i think that bodes well. we're not suggesting that it's going to be a bed of roses from here. we think it's prudent to be somewhat conservative in our outlook given how volatile the environment's been the last few years. but i like looking at these markers and seeing real material progress because it gives me confidence that we can hit or beat the numbers we put out there today. >> i completely agree with you. i'm looking at your brands and i'm thinking during covid you're one of the companies where we took in a lot of your brands and coming out of covid yes, there's been price increases as you mentioned, there are some people who sampled your product and now out of covid they may be having more boom chika, a lot more popcorn. and with glp-1 where all the doctors keep saying you need protein the meat snack is the snack of the future. are these things panning out for you? >> we have an unbelievable snack business, jim. it's a couple billion dollars.

and we don't sell potato chips and pretzels. we sell protein snacks and fiber-centric snacks. brands like slim jim, duke's, david seeds, big seeds. these are protein-centric and fiber-centric snacks. they remain on trend. we grew snack volume in the quarter which is great to see and we expect even more in the year ahead because consumer trends toward healthy snarksz permissible snacks, protein-centric snacks, that's not slowing down anytime soon, jim. >> you're still introducing products. i'm grabbing right now dolly parton duncan hines. there's an extension of the dolly parton line. now, does this kind of thing really add -- people are going to say you grabbed the dolly parton duncan hines, that can't move the needle. but can it move the needle? >> you better believe it moves the needle. dolly parton is an american icon and she's a friend of conagra. we started our partnership with dolly and duncan hines and bake mix. we loved what we saw. we extended that relationship with dolly to broader food.

we're introducing the dolly line-up into our frozen business this year with some great dessert products and down home southern cooking. we know people love dolly and we're going to ex-manned the line-up. >> someone said to me you know what, why doesn't someone come in and say we're rolling back our prices 25% and we're just going to crush everybody, kind of a marlboro friday. you and i have been around for a long time. we know there was a consumer product company not so great tobacco that cut prices and really did kind of annihilate everybody, they came out ahead. is it ever worth it to just have a meeting where you say we should roll back everything 25% and say listen, we're the hero for this country? >> yeah, i don't think that's a great move because number one, i don't think it's necessary. consumers are stretched but they are adapting to the new pricing. they are making tradeoffs. they're putting a lot of analytics into what really -- what products offer the best taste and the best value. and we feel confident that our products will continue to win that assessment. but really it's more about

refinement. it's not that kind of a deep cut blunt instrument. we know exactly what the key price thresholds are for our brands. we know what the key gaps are versus competition. we've been able over the last three quarters to refine those price points to nuance them, get them exactly right, and look what's happened. we've seen our volume trends move materially northward for three quarters in a row. and in a large part of the business it's already begun growing again in the absolute. and that's a positive sign. >> you've got brands they do just pop up. banquet was incredibly popular. did you put a lot of money behind banquet that that came back? because that is -- look, i'm in new york and we're snobs. the banquet spaghetti and meatballs made from scratch marinara sauce, this thing's killing it, isn't it? >> you know what's funny about banquet is banquet for a long, long time didn't get any innovation attention. in the last five years we've completely overhauled the banquet line. it is not the banquet line-up that you remember from 10, 15 years ago. it's a completely new product

line-up with brand new innovation, and our innovations have been really doing exceedingly well in the market plaits. we've got some great ones coming this year, and we're seeing terrific volume performance on that business. it's a combination of great value but increasingly great taste. and quality's been a focus area for us. we've dramatically improved the quality of our portfolio over the last five to ten years. and the consumer has noticed. >> absolutely, sean. and that's why i believe in the inflection. i like volume more than i like price. you know that. volume is real. you are real. that is mr. connolly. and i've got to tell you, sean, everything points to the inflection. i know you didn't want to say it. i'll say it. okay? at a 5% yield i feel like i don't have a lot to lose. thank you so much for coming back to "mad money." >> thanks, jim. >> you betcha. and of course i've got 14 original snack size slim jims. make that 15. "mad money's" back after the break. >> announcer: coming up, don't

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okay. how many times have you boarded a plane only to hear that it's an extremely full flight and there's no more room in the overhead? how many times have you fought over seats or didn't even trust the ticketing process because you figured you might get bumped? if you're like me the answer is every time. air travel's become a total

nightmare. every weekend seems to bring this news that it's the busiest week ever. yes, ever. which makes it a very strange time for me, for yours truly. unless i'm hiding with my hat and sunglasses i'm always going to get asked about owning the stock of whatever airline i'm flying on because it's so darn packed. understand i'm actually thrilled to be recognized and talked to. it's a big deal. i regard it as a blessing. the show's been on for a long time because we have amazing viewers like you and i don't want to lose you. which is why i always demure when asked whether the owner of the extremely full flight should be bought. i beg off the passengers and duck the flight attendants and hide my face when i see any pilot. i don't want to tell them that none of the airlines are worth buying here, not when we're in the air. but some people just won't take no for an answer. they want one airline, any airline. the one i feel confident in. they know that boeing seems unable to make planes. some know that the more reputable airbus is having supply chain problems too. so spliet is tight. demand is insane. so for the desperate the ones who can't believe these airlines aren't just coining money you

know what i say? i say okay, boo-yah, if you must, i don't countenance it but if you absolutely have to then buy delta, the most profitable airline there is. sure enough today we found out why my caution was justified. today delta reported a disappointing quarter and its stock tumbled almost 4%. what happened? first let me be clinical as ed bastion the terrific ceo of delta said on a conference call, while demand for air travel remains strong with record tsa trfl volumes up 7% from last year's levels domestic industry seat growth has accelerated through the summer months impacting yield performance in the main cabin, end quet. in other words, don't believe your lying eyes. there are way too many seats than there are people to put them in. despite all the signs of overbooked flights you see constantly and i see constantly it turns out that evidence was all anecdotal. in reality there's been an 8% increase in capacity in reaction to those incredible travel numbers. the airlines ramp it up. they caught up with demand and then they overshot it. an enchanting bright spot the

glow-up effect from a certain bejeweled tortured poet? >> you look at the summer. you look at what's the big news where people want to go, especially our younger demographic? they want to go to europe to see taylor swift. well, that's what's selling. >> a phenomenon which even the "mad money" team got in on, including our executive producer regina gilliam with her sister and daughter vesper and niece isabella in of course dublin! now, observation is a very important power when you're picking stocks but it must be married to curiosity before you pull the trigger. and if you had the curiosity what would you have found? you'd know delta is a great company as it might be. it's actually not a great stock. up only 20% or so over the past ten years. good time to judge a stock, ten years. during that period the s&p's up 134%. dow jones industrial up 135%. same period. it's not as easy to spot the

weakness as i'd like on delta's conference call. you would have heard the loyalty program outperformed with revenue helped by growing sky miles member base. you'd have learned that cargo revenue was up 16% domestic passenger revenue up 5%. those are incredible numbers. and given that delta's very well run i believe ed bastian when he says things can improve and the disappointment might be short term. the company reminds us it has too much debt so it has to use a big chunk of its cash to cover the interest payments. but what bastian doesn't control and will never control are the lousy companies in his industry, competitors that are always doing things wrong. in recent years we've convinced ourselves that the airline industry has discipline on pricing but that's not usually the case and now there's a skunk at the garden party. delta the company's terrific. delta the airline stock is only as good as their weakness competitors because they're leading a race to the bottom and that's killing it. so if you have one big takeaway from tonight's show let it be this. if you're going to buy a stock, any stock, first see how it's done over time. second see how its cohort has done. you can take one look at the

jam-packed plane and want to buy delta airlines stock or you can take one look at the pathetic chart and know for sure that the stock's sadly simply not worth owning. i like to say there's always a bull market somewhere i promise to try to find it for you right here on "mad money." i'm jim cramer. see you next time. a special early edition of "last call" starts now. good evening, everybody. i am brian sullivan. this is cnbc's special breaking coverage of a rare solo and incredibly important press conference from president biden. we're expecting him not long from now. now, the presser was originally scheduled for 5:30 p.m. eastern. it then got pushed back to 6:30 p.m. eastern. and it may start even later. the president does have a history of starting late. to say this is the most important press conference of the president's tenure is an understatement. simply put, the stakes could not be higher tonight for the