tv Fast Money CNBC July 12, 2024 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
5:00 pm
insurance, right? >> that's true. and the regulation varies from state to state. in every state, the auto insurers are a regulated industry. there are some states where every single increase has to go before a regulator and the regulator has to yea or nay it. in california, they're just starting to catch up. >> we'll see what happens from here, both with insurance and with the market. contessa, thanks. that does it for "overtime." "fast money" starts now. jon, thank you very much. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap for tonight. the russell has been a real lag ar gard so far this year. it had a breakout. big bank bummer, shares of well fargo hit hard after disappointing results. jpmorgan and citi also lower on the day after reporting earnings. is this a bad sign for the rest
5:01 pm
of the sector which will post results or most of it will next week? and later, it is friday, ahead of a big week of earnings, we'll fire up an old school options act palooza to get you ready for results from netflix to ual to j&j and a bunch more. more banks, by the way. i'm tyler mathisen in tonight for melissa lee live from studio b at the nasdaq market site. on the desk, tim seymour, not on the desk, home, but he's here in spirit, courtney garcia, carter worth and bonawyn eison live on set. we start with the great market rotation or is it the great market broadening? whatever it is, it is nice. small caps which have been a clear underperformer this year jumping again today, bringing their gains since monday to 6%. that's the russell 2000's best week since november. the rate sensitive real estate sector the only s&p 500 group still in the red for 2024. it led the index this week up
5:02 pm
more than 4%. 4.4% to be exact. and the dow just up single digits this year versus a 20 plus percent gain in the nasdaq. jumped 250 points today, hit its first intraday record in nearly two months. it wasn't just a laggards playing catch-up. big winners of the er fr year from arm holdings, they were able to recoup much of their losses suggesting that maybe thursday's pullback was a blip in the a.i.-led rally. so, is the rising tech tide now truly lifting all boats? courtney, you pointed out this phenomenon earlier today. >> yeah, i think the question was, when you started to see this rotation yesterday, everyone said, okay, this rotation, we have all been waiting for this year, out of growth into values, starting to happen. today, you're seeing that tech trade coming back as well, which means we're seeing more of a broadening as opposed to rotation, which is good. that means the entire market is going higher. >> what is the difference there?
5:03 pm
it means that everybody sort of benefits as opposed to cash leaving one sector and rotating into another? >> you got it, yeah. the difference of money coming out of tech and going into other sectors, you're seeing the everything rally, everything is going up. and that's a much better sign. when you're looking at the equal weight s&p, that's done very well so far. and that's really indicative you're seeing the broad markets doing better. and those have a really good valuation. they're trading at less than their historical averages, significantly less than earning. you want to make sure you're getting into this before this broadening happens. you're seeing that happen this week and that's what the markets are positive on. >> what about the small caps that started to take part this week, up 6% for the week and they have been, of course, laggards sort of famously throughout this entire bull market so far. >> tyler, sorry, i can't be with you there today.
5:04 pm
but as we talk about this, the small caps outperformed over the last few days, the equal weight was up 3% and s&p value was up about 2.5%. so the dynamic here to me is a case of i -- yes, i think positioning was so extreme to the downside, small caps were so oversold, the recipe for the rally is pretty clear. if you have a soft landing, and you have a benign fed and maybe even a fed that could move, traders are starting to price in possibly a 50 basis point hike in september, going to be great to listen to jim bianco in a second. he's probably on the other side of that, i think that's a recipe for the small caps continuing to outperform and making multiyear lows relative to the s&p. i'm just not so sure. i'm also somebody that doesn't feel like you have to own small caps. i realize opportunistically, yeah, sure, if something is oversold and have a chance to continue to ride this trade. there is no question if you look
5:05 pm
at the chart on small caps, they began to drastically underperform the s&p in november of '21 and that's when the fed got on their horse. fascinating week. i think this was a really interesting week for so many reasons that we already just discussed, watch the dollar also. i think a weakening dollar is part of a bull rally that will help broadening. commodities resources, things that are inverse dependent, and i think that has more life as well. >> i'm glad you said you feel me there. good to be felt. you said, by the way, that i think you said 50% hike, did you mean a cut? >> sorry, i sure did. thanks for that. i 50 basis point cut is something that -- >> you said something earlier today that caught my attention. there aren't 2,000 stocks in the russell 2000. >> things get acquired and they
5:06 pm
chuck them out and reconstitute the index. i think whether it is broadening or whether it is just money flow has to be -- think about this. it is only 1982 stocks, not 2,000, not to say that's not a big number, but they add up to $3.2 trillion, the size of apple and amazon. the s&p is $47 trillion. as a sponge, money comes out of one area and moves into the other. but the question is, are small caps in and of themselves a very desirable, highly profitable and likely to outperform every other market? i don't suspect so. there is beta, we know this. a lot of them are unprofitable. is this just a knee jerk reaction as money comes out of the high flyers everyone loves and owns are very crowded and say i got to put it somewhere and that's rotation. versus is it something that is structurally bullish? i don't think it is that. >> you think -- >> the water moving around in the boat. so, there was a time that i
5:07 pm
remember, you probably do too, when if the dow hit one of these big round numbers, like 40,000, we have been here before, it was a big deal. not so much anymore. >> you know -- >> does it mean anything to you? >> the number in and of itself, no. you tend to, like, stocks tend to become more valuable over time. so, saying that it will hit 40,000 ten years ago versus 40,000 now clearly isn't necessarily comparing apples to apples. with that said, i'm definitely in the broadening camp. i think one thing you really want to debate is whether or not we're in early cycle or later cycle. and i think that's a debate worth having. the caveat there is we never had a situation where we had rates -- you can argue art officially so low for so long and had the type of fiscal stimulus we had going into and coming out of covid. i think that is a new situation here. i'm with carter. there is no way you're going to have like for like exchange.
5:08 pm
and have it rotate into small cap. >> so what happened today that made the dow go up 400 points at one point, i believe it was, didn't finish there, but above 40,000, s&p is back at 5600 or something like that. what was it about today that made this happen? was it the awareness or feeling that interest rates are going to get cut? finally settled? >> i think it is that macro environment. >> there is this permanent belief, a belief in cap m and dividend discount models, that if rates go down, we expand the multiple. if that were always the case, when was the lowest rate ever on the covid low? the stock market should have been 1 million. doesn't work like that always. it is too clever by half as the british expression goes. i think there is this sort of belief that we're in a gold a goldilocks. we're stuck here at 444.
5:09 pm
but the question is at what point are equitys full? at what point do you have to lap your earnings and so forth and so on. it gets down to a three to six-month basis, are you adding or reducing exposure. >> some of the big banks, not all, but some came out today, you got citi, wells, and jpmorgan. i guess wells had a knit to pick in its earnings report, the others were pretty good. the banks didn't play today. those didn't. >> i think what you're seeing here is clearly there was a bar set higher. so even though there was some good news that came out with the banks, you're seeing buybacks happening, net interest -- not as bad as people expect, with wells fargo, they came in, in their expectations going forward, in the lower range of where they already were. people were hoping there was going to be better revision, they're still looking forward, not going to have that net interest that people were hoping. you are hoping that with interest rates coming down, this
5:10 pm
is a positive for the banks. it is just one of those things where the bar was set too high. >> are those big banks close to fully valued? is that part of the story here? >> not all of them. and, again, i love city's numbers. i'm a city shareholder and have been for a long time. i held it through periods where i wasn't as excited about both the fundamentals and some catalysts to take the stock higher. for a stock that moved 75% off the october lows, and really rallied 13, 14% for three weeks into those earnings, i thought the stock behaved fine today. i thought the fact that they reiterated their guide that the places where you are most excited i think in citi are not just in terms of the capital deployment, the buyback, that was expected. i think what they can do in terms of the dividend profile is great. but it is the profile of the bank and the profitability and not anything terribly sexy, but
5:11 pm
it is a valuation that i like. and i thought we got reaffirmation of that today. and if you thought banks were well over bought going into these numbers, you have to like the response and we had many times where banks don't seem to respond on earnings day to me to fundamentals. that's what we have seen across seven or eight quarters going back. >> all right, cool. let's get more on what's in store for markets with jim bianco, bianco research president. welcome. one reason we love having you on and i have enjoyed talking to you, is that you often say the unexpected. a lot of sort of contrarian views come out, and today will be no exception. you expect zero ratecuts this year. explain your reasoning. >> well, i think they should have zero rate cuts this year. i suspect that the fed won't listen to that and probably might cut. but the reason i suspect that we're going to have zero rate
5:12 pm
cuts, i don't think they're warranted. the economy is continuing to move along just fine. it was growing well above what we call potential or 2%, 2.5% last year, going below potential this year, that's what economies do. i suspect a second half rebound and as far as inflation numbers go, i long have been the camp that the new level for inflation is 3% to 4%. we hit 3% in june of last year. 12 months ago. we then went up to 3.5% until january of this year, now back down to 3%. i'm looking at this as the lower end of the range. if that's all the case, then the fed neutral rate, if you want to put it that way, is probably somewhere about 4% or little bit above that, not that controversial, because the market is very close, there is various measures that s s s the
5:13 pm
where the neutral rate is. they're going to be at neutral by the end of the year, and given the strength of the economy, i don't think it is worth it. now that i said that, looks like what i think doesn't matter, the fed is going to probably do it anyway in september. >> the wholesale prices were a little higher than expected. so inflation is not -- it is not done yet, right? >> yeah, no, i don't think it is quite done. i think really what you got to look at in terms of inflation is a couple of things. one, the government spending. government is 22% of gdp. there has only been two times that it has been higher than that in american history. and that was the covid response four years ago and world war ii. that level of spending, you can't have a recession the government spending that kind of money and with the government sucking up that kinds of goods and services, will keep the pressure on -- keep pressure on inflation which should keep pressure on interest rates. there seems to be a bit of a
5:14 pm
change in the attitude among consumers. there are a lot willing to consume and spend a lot more -- talking about per unit, that's because prices have been higher, and i'll give you one antidote, look at the numbers of through put through the airport at 3.1 million. new all time record right now. the reason i point that out is travel is the ultimate thing that no one needs, but everybody wants. and if we're all wanting to go 3.1 million a day through the airport, doesn't sound like the consumer is ready to slow down anytime soon. >> i'm travel ting tomorrow, i' leave earlier than i thought. one thing i want to pick up on, jim, my notes indicate that you think that the ten-year treasury yield could get up to 5.5%. what is going to take it there? >> well, couple of things. the target was 5 to 5.5. i'll point out that as late as last week, the ten-year treasury was still at 4.50. we have been in a period of
5:15 pm
higher -- we have been in a period of higher volatility. and the last thing i'll point out is around april, i had that target all year, 5, 5.5. we got to 4.75 in april and i said i'll still stick with 5, 5.5, but more of a low conviction cost. now that i said all that, i think it is going to be that the economy is going to be okay, continue to move along. if inflation doesn't go much below my 3%, 3.5% target, that all portends for higher interest rates and probably above that 4.75 in april that we saw and that gets me very close to my 5% the lower end of my -- >> quick thought then, if the ten-year gets to 5% or above, to even 5.5%, the connection there between that and mortgage rates is pretty irect. that's going to hurt housing, isn't it? that's going to send the mortgage rate up close to 8%.
5:16 pm
>> well, it depends on what the definition of hurt housing is. housing prices are not being hurt if you're a homeowner, there is nothing wrong with this housing market, your price keeps going up. if you're a home buyer, then, yes, that is going to be a problem. but, that is housing. housing is not the entire economy. it is a $30 trillion economy, maybe two of it is residential housing. so, the economy -- so when you look at interest rates, you have to think about the broad measure of the economy, so, yeah, the interest -- the most interest rate sensitive sector, housing, will probably be hurt, but a lot of other sectors won't be. that's why i think interest rates can go up and the economy can withstand it. >> jim, thank you very much. have a great weekend. stay cool. >> thank you, you too. >> all right. now that jim is gone, can't defend himself, who would like to argue with it? anyone? >> the whole thing is that there is a higher for longer, it became a mantra and never happened. consider this, over the past two
5:17 pm
years, you're talking about how many weeks has ten year yields been above 4.5%? surely 4.5% is not higher for longer. 10, 12 weeks, out of the last two years we have been higher. most of the time lower than 4.5%. where is the higher for longer? it never has been real. >> want to button off the segment? >> i think the other aspect that we haven't talked about is the labor market. you are starting to see that -- >> softening there, right? >> yes. exactly. i think the fed has started to actually acknowledge that being part of the dual mandate. i think the economy has proven to be a lot stronger for longer than we have feared. it was just 18 months ago everyone, myself included, was calling for a recession. i think labor market softness is something being considered a bit more heavily. >> very interesting. thank you. coming up, start your engines. ford shares revving up this
5:18 pm
week. inside the stealthy rally. who is paying attention? and another under the radar mover that could be prime for big gains. we'll tell you which one that is right after this on "fast money." okay, team! oh, thank you so much >> announcer: you're watching "fast money" here on cnbc. we'll be right back. i'm really just here for the at&t internet, it's super-fast so, any pre-launch concerns? what if nobody buys them? that's mean or, what if everybody buys them? oh, i hadn't thought of that that's probably not gonna happen can we handle that kind of traffic? the network can handle it! i downloaded eight hours of true crime stories just during our last video call i'm learning a lot
5:20 pm
z's baking the house special. arisa's styling a new look. and steve's filling his biggest order ever. with the first ever comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee, these business owners get five years of value on gig speed internet and advanced security, all from the company with 99.9% network reliability. so now they can focus on doing what they do best for the next five years. that's a lot of bread. you got this. the comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. switch today for a limited tim.
5:21 pm
welcome back to "fast money." a couple of stocks staging seattle rallies this week. and catching one of our traders eyes, both dick's sporting goods and ford gaining about 10% since monday. ford's 4 plus percent rally brings shares to their highest level in almost a year. the company reportedly looking to expand its ev supply chain with a $400 million plant in kentucky. and dick's recouping all of its losses since the sell-off on july 1. it has been up 5% in each of the past two days. but it is still 5% from the all time high hit late last month. tim, you were watching both of these names, take them in whichever order you would like. >> well, let me talk about ford and let me talk about -- talk about gm too. gm is at 2 1/2 year highs.
5:22 pm
ford moved almost 30% in about three weeks. it is a combination of decent news out of both firms in terms of their ev business, but there is no question if you look at the breakout over the last few days, this interest rate move and sensitive, if you think home builders who outperformed the s&p by 9%, so do car companies and the financing arm. if you think about the capital financing arms at ford, the sensitivity there is extraordinary. look at ford, this breakout of 14 is fascinating. in the case of dicks, a lot of retail, this pop is related to victims of both retail and discretionary spend. if you -- higher for longer certainly as it relates to the short end is where the fed lives. if we got some sense that the fed is ready to start moving and we just debated that, we'll leave it there, look at the outperformance of the xrt, of apparel, of discretionary over the last two to three days. dick's, a great story, dick's has been one of the best stories
5:23 pm
in retail, but they have a big pullback, but you can see the sensitivity to these types of names after yesterday's follow through from the cpi and the powell testimony gives of these names a lot of confidence. >> i think i like the idea that there is certain companies that are going to do well with interest rates coming down. the likelihood is increasing that interest rates are coming down sooner rather than later. ford should benefit from that. it is going to be cheaper for customers to buy them, now it is going to cost less on the loans. there is a lost other beneficiaries that are going to be more directly affected. i do like the housing trade, i like things like real estate. i like the idea here. i think there is other areas i would add to as opposed to ford. >> let's take a quick break. coming up, meta moves, our chart of the week, is this tech titan sitting out today's rebound? all that and more next.
5:24 pm
5:26 pm
(grandpa) i'm the richest guy in the world. from wherever you are. (man 1) i have time to give. (man 2) i have people i can count on. (grandma) and a million stories to share. (vo) the key to being rich is knowing what counts. >> welcome back to "fast money." it is friday, so that means we got a chart of the week for you.
5:27 pm
one tech name notably sitting out today's rebound, meta, down nearly 3% today, dropping more than 7.5% this week. stock's worst week since late april. what do you make of that action? >> we're talking about rotation versus broadening. i remember there is a long period of time where meta outperformed apple. and all calling is this the end of the apple rally. i wonder, being if there is a little bit of -- take one of carter's terms, sloshing around of funds between apple and meta. apple retrenched itself as one of the premiere mag seven names. and perhaps meta is taking a break. >> so, you know, the other thing about relative performance is everything. so here's a stock over the past three months that is unchanged, while the magnificent seven is up 25 and qqq is up 14. so one has to wonder what is going on? is it i'm full with this one, don't want to buy more, or is it
5:28 pm
the general marketplace, the collective wisdom expressing a view that this one is not interesting to me, doesn't have potential. i don't want to commit capital. usually that's what poor relative performance means. there is a reason behind it people are not embracing it. >> meta had relative outperformance last year, right? >> is it the pause after the good outperformance or is it a stall because it is full and perhaps it is run out of gas. >> tim, you want to dip in or got a thought in. >> i think it is a combination of if there is no question if you think about it as a week where people -- we talked about broadening, maybe a question all the strength in in the a.i. trade. if you look at some of the ig content, 50% or more of that is a.i. generated. we have been able to point straight to meta, so if you had weakness in that trade this
5:29 pm
week, not surprisingly meta is going to get caught in that. at 20 bucks a share, they earn on estimate roughly in 2024, this is a stock that is not cheap. again, relative to itself. and this is something that i think at some point is part of what the market is doing and what the market did this week. doesn't surprise me and that chart, couple of levels of 480, 460, a lot of big back fill. i'm not sure you're supposed to be running from the door here, but massive run. >> courtney, any thoughts on meta in. >> i think they're facing some issues like the macro environment. there is pressure under advertising spend. i think for a lot of reasons you're seeing people take a pause and a lot of it has to do with outperformance. >> do we know what is going to happen with tiktok? there is a hammer hanging over its head. >> i don't think that is a reason not to trade over it. >> quick break, coming up, is it
5:30 pm
time to buy uber? we kick the tires to see if this stock is worthy of riding shotgun in your portfolio. earnings season is kicking into high gear. happens next week. what the options market predicts for, among others, netflix, united, and more after this. [inner monologue] i needed some help. good thing i knew someone... ♪♪ or... some-thing. [a.i. copilot] glad you called, j. [a.i. copilot] it's time for an upgrade. awesome. ♪♪ [inner monologue] i knew what i had to do. because they never stop. no time to waste. this isn't sci-fi. this is precision ai. ♪♪
5:31 pm
5:33 pm
welcome back to "fast money." stocks ending the week on a very bullish note. the dow up about 250 points. back above 40,000 for the first time since late may. the s&p back above 5600. nasdaq up about 115 points. snowflake shares taking a hit after at&t revealed that a third party had downloaded its customer data. the data was reportedly accessed through a snowflake platform and includes call and text records from 2022. and earnings season wraps up -- ramps up in a big way next week with names like netflix and united ir d airlines and bank o
5:34 pm
america all reporting. let's bring in david bull, he is bank crest managing director. what are you seeing in these stocks that report next week? take us through some. >> so, netflix reports next week as you say, options are implying 8% move. it is a volatile name on earnings. but 8% is on the low side for what the options market expects. i think it is for a couple of reasons. there has been a pretty heavy seller, september 700 calls looking for a ceiling of the 700 level and then also i think traders remember how quickly the stock retraced its 9% move back last quarter for netflix. >> moving on to ual, what do you see there? >> so ual is expected to move about 8% on earnings. couple things here, a volatile 1 1/2 months. the stock is down 20%. traders remember last quarter
5:35 pm
the stock went up 17% in one day and up 32% over four days. so the stock is down a bit. i've seen bullish -- traders playing for a bounce back in united airlines. >> all right. and another united. united healthcare. >> united healthcare, the options are expecting a large move, 5% is very large for united health care. the average actual absolute move for united healthcare going back ten quarters is less than 3%. so the options market is expecting nearly a double, more volatility than we have seen over the past. i'm seeing bullish flow also in united healthcare. traders looking at up 2 to up 10% range or interesting calendar call spread that traded today, playing for that range. they're also selling the downside put. >> let's close with bank of america. i'll turn to carter for more on that. go ahead, what's your thought there, david? >> bank of america, the options
5:36 pm
are implying 3.5% move. this is interestingly in line with what the market was expecting for citi and jpmorgan this morning. and underwhelmed from a volatile perspective. the stocks, both of those, went down about 1% to 2%, less volatility than ongss options h anticipated. it tells us the bar is pretty high on the bank earnings and even though those numbers were decent, and the rest of the financial group was up today, that shallow down move might be in store for bank of america. >> all right, david, stay where you are. we did a segment where we said it was found out that one of the most annoying new corporate buzzwords is to double click on something. it means, like tork dri drill d which is another annoying phrase. >> so, look, we might have some charts. the reality is that today's action, price action is
5:37 pm
everything, right? how did the athlete perform, how did the singer perform, today's price action was not good. we all know this. if you were to look at bank of me america's relative performance, it recently has been improving. and my hunch is that this one will be all right, and it won't pull the stunt that wells fargo pulled. we might have some charts, we can look at them together. my bias is to the upside. going back to 1980, this is the bad news, bank of america has trailed by 50%. a disaster of a pick long-term. if we go to the more here and now circumstance, you'll see this in the next chart, for the stock to get back to its former high, and that's in november of 2006, it would have to rally some 30%. we're trading at 41, 42 and those highs are up at 55. and then finally the here and now chart, which is the part that is okay, it is a very
5:38 pm
orderly up trend and my hunch is that of all the banks and they were all pretty poor today, this one might just be the one that surprised me. >> that's the more recent chart right there. look at the trough there, before december, december 23. >> and just sort of -- never gets parabolic, has the nice dips and so i would call that a stay long, be long circumstance. >> how about you, david? how would you trade bank of america heading into earnings? >> i would play for a little shallow downside. or at least a hedge. if you're long a stock and agree with carter but want to put on a hedge, i would take what the options market is telling us and look for a less volatile move than perhaps many would expect, despite a lower move of 1% to 2%. i would buy the july 41 puts and sell 1.5 times as many of the 30. if the stock mossies on down
5:39 pm
about 4%, you make six times your money. you return a dollar for the 15 cents you spent. you're committing to buy stock down at 38, which is down 9% from here, bank of america hasn't gone down more than 4% on earnings in many years. many would feel comfortable buying the stock at 38. >> i have to replay that about six times before i understand it. carter. >> one of them has a six-bagger in there. >> that sounded good. >> that sounded great. david, thank you very much. we appreciate your time tonight. stay cool. >> thank you. coming up, we're going to talk about ride sharing redemption. can uber continue? we're going to stay here? what are we going to do? we're going to trade bank of america before we get to uber? bank of america? >> yeah, we got a little bit into the banks earlier, but i do think that these were trading lower just on the higher expec expectation. i like the banks here. i think some of the numbers were
5:40 pm
positive. i would look at overall banking index as opposed to trying to pick them individually. i like the well diversified banks like jpmorgan. bank of america, i would play it if it trades lower. >> to tim now with a couple of thoughts on johnson & johnson. >> well, i think in j&j's case, redemption may also be an appropriate word. this is a company that had the overhang of the talc litigation and you won't get answers on that on july 17th or next wednesday. you will get answers on that on the 26th, when the plaintiffs vote to decide whether they accept the offer from the company that could settle a significant amount of these claims. if you can remove that, you take it back to where we hear about earnings, we hear about the med tech business which is growing very well, their pharma pipeline around oncology has a series of events that are going to be treated very well by the analyst community. this is a sum of the parts that
5:41 pm
to me is significantly higher than where the shares trade. it is a stock on long, a stock that i think at some point needs to get out of jail because there is a lot of value there. >> all right. tim, thank you very much. >> now, coming up, ride share redemption, can uber continue its recent bounce as delays in tesla's robo taxi help boost the stock. what the truck master is seeing in the technicals? that's ahead. junior varsity a.i. play, one software stock still trailing t idia, but could have a whole loof potential as the hot tech trend keeps surging. we got a mystery chart for you. they're shunned, outcast, living in pain. you can reach out and change the life of a suffering child right now. a surgery that take as little as forty five minutes and your act of love can change a child's life forever. please call, scan or go online to give a new smile.
5:43 pm
5:44 pm
welcome back to "fast money." ride share stocks getting a boost this week on news that tesla is delaying the launch of its robo taxi. especially uber, which is trying to bounce back from a spring sell-off and the chart master says this one could drive even higher. how are the charts looking on uber? >> let's get right to it. there are four that are identical with different annotations. the first chart, you see the great plunge with the market, the great recovery.
5:45 pm
let's draw some lines. what we know is this uptrend in effect has been quite orderly. with these check backs, these drawdowns, these sell-offs. let's depict those, you'll see that on the third iteration. this is the fourth 20% plus sell-off since the lows of a year and a half ago. and to my eye, final chart, we have not only sold off to the up trend, but we backed the level from which uber broke out. that's the definition of a level of support. uber found support and has come to life. so, earnings coming, buy, sell, hold, make a decision or not play, i want to buy. >> you want to buy. tim, your thoughts on the ride share stocks in your acronymic trade, you have one, just not uber. >> maybe should be we should mimic too, it is -- lyft got added later when things were
5:46 pm
going well. it hasn't been much of a help for the last 35% move off of that $20 level it hit. the story here is about normalization both in terms of the driver supply and their core business and less regulatory pressure on top of the fact they were starting to see price increases and price rational station. the comps are very tough on the second quarter. we have seen essentially new management slowly earn the respect and the confidence of the investor community, but not yet. i think this is a great long-term play in a world where there is a duopoly. l lyft will survive or be taken out. i think that the tesla story is noisy for both these players. i don't think that's the reason to run for the hills either way. >> who would take out lyft? >> well, it could be -- it could be one of these players that is looking at transportation as a
5:47 pm
service, robo taxis, et cetera. i think the question is ultimately with two players, someone wants to control the second player. >> thoughts? >> i think the uber story has shifted. this was a growth story where you were willing to forgo earnings and they shifted things around. they have shifted the free cash flow story, they earned shy of had billion over the last 12 months. i think the valuation is a bit stretched at 58 times. that's probably the con side of things. and perhaps this massachusetts overhang in terms of treating ride share employees, drivers as possibly classifying them as employees, we saw a similar type of play out with california. so clearly -- or their ability to unionize. that would cut into the margin. this is growth at probably somewhat reasonable being they have been able to prove a
5:48 pm
long-standing story of profitability. >> courtney? >> i think too, if you're going to assume they're trading because of the news that is happening with tesla's robo taxi, they have been underperforming since that news came out. they're doing well with the idea that's getting pushed out into the future, i don't think that's in and of itself a reason to trade this. that's where uber is holding up better. they have a better diversified business. they're faring a lot better. and likely won't trade as closely to this robo taxi news as a lyft will. if you see less volatility in uber versus lyft. >> interesting. coming up, tired of the nvidia talk? it could have a major a.i. advantage. the overlooked names that could boost your portfolio. don't go anywhere. more "fast money" in two minutes.
5:49 pm
it's hard to run a business on your own. make it easier on yourself. with shopify, you can have your inventory, payments, and customers in sync across all the places you sell. start your journey with a free trial today. [crowd chanting] they ignored your potential, and mocked your ambition. but it's not the critic who counts. with every swing and block,
5:50 pm
your game plan never changed. ♪♪ some still call it luck. let them. because you know what it's always been. inevitable. ♪♪ ♪♪ when we're young, we're told anything is possible... ...but only a few of us go out and prove it. witness the greatness of anna hall on a connection worthy of gold: xfinity mobile. only xfinity gives you the most powerful mobile wifi network, with speeds up to a gig in millions of locations. and right now, get up to $800 off the new galaxy z flip6
5:51 pm
5:52 pm
hold in the space. oracle shares are up 37% this year, very quietly, and could benefit from ever increasing demand in the a.i. space. our kate rooney is here to break down how this long-term jv stock may be about to break into the varsity. kate? >> oracle has long been a varsity player in software, for decades. more recently when it comes to a.i., it has been lagging behind the magnificent seven. microsoft, google, amazon, that's been the varsity squad. oracle may be stepping up and leading the pack in what some describe as the second tier a.i. stocks. it has been on a tear this year as you mentioned. it dipped this week after reports of elon musk's xai reneging on a deal for oracle servers. wall street shook off that news. the lack of reaction underlines the excitement around oracle's a.i. story, the fact that was outweighing the loss of a major customer for oracle. jeffries said the deal has no
5:53 pm
impact, they say it wasn't factored into revenue and oracle continues to see exceedingly strong demand. the a.i. upside for the stock comes down to what wall street sees as endless leedemand for cd computing. key partnerships last quarter and now then part of this story was the setup, coming into the year. evercore said sentiment was at a low water mark and oracle went from zero to hero recently. it was their contrarian stock pick and now they say there is a lot more confidence in cloud growth and revenue reacceleration. tyler, back to you. >> thank you very much. around the horn here, tim, first whack at oracle and/or any of the other a.i. stocks you like or loathe. >> well, again, often as is the case with elon musk headlines whether they are around tesla or some of the other entities in the case of the xai, i think
5:54 pm
that's just a lot of noise for oracle. those numbers were never -- deal never signed, never listed and counted toward the profile of the company. i look at the eps dynamic and the ultimately the multiple here, talk about the jv and varsity squad. it trades at 26, 27 times, 44% growth versus microsoft at 35 times. i think oracle belongs here and i think you stay with it. >> how about that? >> i agree. particularly if you're looking for a way to trade it now. would i rather own this than nvidia or a leader? no. in terms of trying to get into a trade that clearly is a bit long in the tooth and you had some astronomical returns, as tim mentioned, the price to earnings, like the imemployed ratio here tells you very much it is still not fully valued if it is actually able to capitalize on this a.i. -- >> you're making the case this
5:55 pm
is a good complementary player in the a.i. area. >> i think when you're looking at a.i., you look at the players who have not yet benefited. nvidia is doing fantastic. you'll see earnings revisions start to come down. oracle will likely benefit from artificial intelligence, second tier. i like the other plays like energy is a big beneficiary of artificial intelligence, good supply and demand story. i'm not specifically playing this one specifically, but it is something to look at. >> carter? >> i love it. >> you love it? >> it has all the things one wants. gapped up on march 12th, up 13%, june 12th, another 12%. good relative strength. you have a stock that is not loved. not embraced, as are so many. stealth winner, i would be long. >> be long on that. that sounds good. as we move on here, we're going to get to your final trades.
5:58 pm
5:59 pm
standing the test of time. it is time for our final trade of the day. of the week. let's go around the horn. tim, you get to go first. >> tyler, thank you for joining us on a friday. always great. the market we question whether it is strong value or growth. gm is a story after a 90% move off the lows, it still sub 6 on a trailing td. stay in gm, the backdrop gets better and better. >> gm. all right.
6:00 pm
courtney, you're next. >> we talked about the broadening of the market. i like the stories that tim is talking about growth versus value. look at the rst, equal weight s&p. >> all right. carter. >> slv and gld. >> i'll my mission is simple, to make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market summer. i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey, i am kramer. welcome to mad money. welcome to kramer america. if you have friends trying to make a little oney, my job is not just to entertain, but put it all in context. call me or tweet me. i'm constantly on the show telling you discipline always trumps condition
76 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
CNBC Television Archive Television Archive News Search ServiceUploaded by TV Archive on