a call for unity. president biden making a rare oval office address condemning political violence and urging americans to cool down ahead of the election. former president trump landing in milwaukee overnight for the republican national convention deciding against delaying his trip following the assassination attempt in pennsylvania on saturday. he is shifting his messaging after his shooting. and investors are digesting what happened and unknowns surrounding the shooter and what

this means for the u.s. and global markets. it's monday, july 15th, 2024. this is "worldwide exchange." good morning. welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. thank you for being with us. we begin with breaking news. global investors working through the events in butler, pennsylvania and the assassination attempt on former president donald trump. the indices are up .50% in the pre-market. as markets weigh political sentiment and a key week for corporate reports with the dow sitting at a fresh all-time high. the ten-year yield gaining following the inflation report and the first cpi slowdown since 2020. you see it raising from the levels we saw on friday. also, we are seeing sharp moves in other risk assets, including

bitcoin. it has surged past $60,000. $62,820. we have seen a big move to the upside following the assassination attempt on former president p donadonald trump. we will talk about bitcoin and the impact on the markets on the show. it is 5:00 a.m. on the east coast. what is what we know about the attempted assassination of former president trump. it is a shooting that killed one person and injured two others. mr. trump was shot in the ear. he traveled to milwaukee and decided not to delay his trip. in the post on truth social, he told supporters it is more important than ever to unite and show our true character. mr. donald trump adding the speech adding at the rnc will take a different tone shifting focus away from the policies of the current administration and

toward unity. he spoke with our joe kernen. we are hearing from the president in a rare primetime oval office address. last night, mr. biden telling americans it is time to cool down the political discourse. >> all of us now face the time as the election approaches. this places an added burden on each of us to ensure no matter how strong our convictions, we must never descend into violence. >> there has been a wave of support for the former president and stand against violence from political leaders around the world. apple ceo tim cook is praying for a rapid recovery and those who were injured and killed in the shooting. and intel's pat gelsinger adding this is a difficult time for the nation, but grateful for the

rapid response from law enforcement. he added violence has no place in our society. the investigation is still ongoing. the fbi maintains thomas matthew crooks from bethel park, pennsylvania, acted alone. the remaining two victims of the assassination attempt are still hospitalized, but said to be in stable condition. we turn to market reaction around the world with jp ong and arabile gumede in london. arabile, we begin with you. >> we look out for the assassination attempt and what it means for the risk premium in the market picture. so far, we are focusing in on what is stock specific news out of europe. overall, the market picture has been fairly negative thus far. we have a drawdown of .13% with the cac 40 and the ibex 35 is

the biggest loser today. switzerland is managing to find green and going up .13% so far in the early trade. you see sentiment coming through with stock specific stuff moving the market. frank. >> arabile, thank you very much. we move to the asian market with jp ong. jp. >> frank, a lot of things happening here in asia as it has been a thin monday with japanese markets offline. the yen was trading today and it was one of the things to watch out for with safe haven play. the markets have said the u.s. dollar is the favorite safe haven choice. the japanese yen moved throughout the session. there were concerns of intervention with how weak the yen has gotten. they use the days of thin trading to intervene. so far, no dice. the yen 157 against the u.s. dollar. the korean stocks did well

actually out in seoul because of the belief that if we are facing a second trump presidency, defense stocks will rally. they were the gainers in the south korean markets. we are seeing mineral prices and iron ore prices did rise on the back of hopes there might be stimulus coming from china. the reason there is hope of stimulus from china is dismal macro data from china. 4.7% gdp growth in the second quarter and the home prices in june falling by 4.5%. its steepest decline in nine years. thus, painting a lot of uncertainty keeping it in check from hong kong. frank. >> thank you, jp. we turn attention to d.c. as lawmakers on both sides of the

aisle respond to the assassination attempt. we havhave emily wilkins with m. >> reporter: hours after trump was shot and lawmakers were seeing how the fbi and secret service failed to prevent the firing upon trump. house speaker mike johnson promised a full investigation. erhe raised concerns of the apparent lapse of security and he spoke with mayorkas on saturday night. >> we need to know how someone seen at that elevation and seen by the bystanders on the ground and not seen by secret service? lots more questions than answers this morning. >> reporter: several congressional panels are opening investigations now into the shooting. james comer, the head of the house oversight committee is

calling on kimberly cheatle to testify in front of his committee when congress gets back next week. mark green sent a letter to ma mayorkas asking for secret service details. the seriousness of the security failure and chilling moment in our nation's history cannot be understated. mark green will hold a briefing with director cheatle today. the homeland security senate committee is conducting an investigation into what happened. the committee chair, gary peters, spoke with mayorkas on sunday and requested an update as soon as possible. the justice department and fbi

are also investigating as christopher wray told reporters no stone would go unturned. democrat torres introduced legislation to bolster security around trump and robert f. kennedy jr. a lot of movement on capitol hill in the wake of the shooting. questions remaining as to what these investigations will con conclude. >> absolutely. the investigation getting under way. emily, we will see you later in the show. let's talk about the political ramifications of the attempted assassination of former president trump with terry haynes and ben emons. good morning to both of you. terry, i'm going to begin with you. a growing talking of the quote/unquote trump trade. following the political violence we saw over the weekend, how do you view that so-called trump trade and increasing support and

sentiment that mr. trump may have an increasing lead in this election? >> well, good morning, frank. markets trade on sentiment all the time. i caution people against a trump trade being real because the betting and prediction markets are much ballyhooed on wall street. you had a tight race between trump and biden over the last month even after all biden's difficulties over the last month, you only have a situation where trump has gone from plus one to plus three in the last month and, you know, that's a situation that's within the margin of error of most of the polls being sampled. so, the political reality here is a lot more circumspect than the betting markets reality. i'd expect that condition to continue for quite some time. >> ben, i'm going to come over

to you. you are looking at some of the odds with the selection. you gave us data of 70% that trump will win the election. looking at the markets, do you see a short-term or long-term to the so-called trump trade? >> it is like terry said because it is really about the proba probability outcome and the markets like certainty. as horrific as the event is, the markets are likely that donald trump will win the election. whether or not he wins the election remains to be seen. for markets, it is discounting the outcome. the trump trade back with the russell 2000 up and the dollar is up and the yields are up. what does this mean for the economy?

more stimulus and tax cuts. i think that sentiment is driving the markets this morning. >> that sentiment is largely based on the idea that trump is reelected. according to your data, terry, a 70% chance of split control of the white house and congress. you are seeing that as the most likely outcome, is there a way for the investors to play the so-called split with the white house? >> frank, you have a mixed status quo. you have congress as important or more important than the president setting policy. all of the rhetoric of trump-esque doesn't cut it. in a split congress, you have still difficulties with fiscal debt and deficit. you will have an increase in defense almost no matter what happens, but i think it will be a little more pronounced on

trump's side. you will have a situation where unless there is one party republican control in washington top-to-bottom, what you will have is a situation of tax cuts in 2025 expire. investors can play that as well. >> all right. you are looking ahead to some of the possible policy if there is a split white house and congress. i want to talk about the short-term and medium-term impact. looking at the price of bitcoin and the dollar. terry, do you see any short-term opportunities to get into bitcoin and invest in currency? i want to bottom line it. where would you put money to work at right now due to all this uncertainty and possibility of volatility going forward? >> with the caveat that i'm not a financial adviser. i will say that there's an awful lot of smoke and mirrors of resuscitation of bitcoin and

digital currency in washington. i find that premature. i would be looking at more traditional assets than going into those markets. >> understood. ben, i'll give you the last word. i know you are looking at a lot of commodities which are short-term. i want your take on the recent rise of bitcoin following the assassination attempt. >> you can always look for an alternative with bitcoin. trump put his support behind bitcoin. i think it is also what happens from here with gold. that is such an uncertainty. gold is up this morning. i think markets are taking this as much as this event was terrible and horrific, but on the other hand, it doesn't create uncertainty for markets because they are seeing this economic outcome from president trump and potentially the president. uncertainty lifts all boats.

you see it with the commodities and the metals are up because of what is happening here on the ground and also because china being weaker with the potential stimulus from china. this gives us the risk-on feeling this morning. >> ben emons and terry haines, thank you very much. we still have more to come following the assassination attempt and if history is any guide for investors. cfra strategist is here and we also speak with ian bremmer as well. also, big banks are on deck as investors turn to the earnings season. stay with us. "worldwide exchange" returns after this.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." take a look at earnings season. goldman sachs is set to report after the open today. and better than expected results from citi on friday. goldman kicks off a big week of region and bank. let's bring in hugh son with the latest. hugh, always good to have you on. >> good morning, frank. i'm looking at goldman sachs and in particular if you look at what happened on friday, that's jpmorgan chase and citigroup both shooting the lights out

with investment banging. y banking. they guided up 30% higher with the investment fees a few weeks ago and they ended up being higher 50% to 60% respectively with iv feefees. that was a huge driver. goldman sachs is the premier advisory group in investment banking. you would be disappointed if they didn't have a similar overperformance in the investment banking arena. trading did well. lots of debt action as companies were tapping capital markets. beginning of the glimmer of the increase in the ipo market. there is lots to be excited about if you are an investor in goldman sachs or morgan stanley. less if you are an investor in main street businesses like bank of america. >> i want to circle back to goldman sachs. we had an analyst on last week.

they expected investment banking revenue up 25 p% to 30% this we. we have jpm with strong equity trading revenue. would you expect goldman sachs to be in line or better? how do you view the goldman sachs results in light of the other big banks? >> they tend to out perform. when wall street is doing well, goldman sachs tends to do good-to-great. if they don't out perform significantly just as jpmorgan chase and citigroup, that would be disappointing. david solomon got flack with the failure of the consumer banking efforts. obscured by that, they had been making an lot of progress deepening their moat and the trading business they have or tightening relationships with hedge fund clients. if that is not shooting lights out on wall street, this is

going to be a concern. >> you mentioned the banks. we have bank of america, a big consumer bang, k coming up this week. so many are looking for higher interest rate vehicles like cds and money market. what are you looking for with bank of america? obviously a key metric for them. >> we expect it to be compressed just like citi and jpmorgan chase. we see the funding on the banks and if your customers have a choice to be higher yielding options for cds or money markets, they will do so which increases the funding costs. it is showing up in the credit card business. the main side of the equation is under increased strain, frank. >> we are talking to a main

street bank tomorrow. hugh son, thank you very much. your story is up on cnbc.com right now. coming up on "worldwide exchange," a major deal is taking shape as alphabet is mulling one deal. we will have all of the details when we return. stay with us. [crowd chanting] they ignored your potential, and mocked your ambition. but it's not the critic who counts. with every swing and block, your game plan never changed. ♪♪ some still call it luck. let them. because you know what it's always been. inevitable. ♪♪ ♪♪

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in london. the retailer firing the ceo after two years. sales dropping 20% in the first quarter. burberry naming joshua schulman as the new ceo. shares are down 16.5%. other stocks including lvmh and richemont down 2.5%. looking at tech this morning and anl phaalphabet looking to . wiz raised $1 billion earlier this year at ta valuation of $1 billion. i spoke to an analyst last month about wiz and aws. >> they are doing a great job in

the vulnerability management space and doing a good job of how cloud infrastructure is configured and used. apple hitting a record of $8 billion in india. revenue jumping one-third from a year ago. india is a rapidly growing market for apple. you can see shares are up 2% in the pre-market. coming up, much more in the assassination attempt of former president trump as we look at the fallout of the political violence. ian bremmer on what he is telling clients in these times of uncertainty. much more "worldwide exchange" coming up after this. to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. here's where we stand this half hour following the weekend events and the attempt on former president trump's life. all three indices up .50% in the pre-market. the dow is set to open at a fresh record high. we are taking a check of the dow gainers in the pre-market this morning. you see apple at the top of the list. we announced the increase in the india shares. shares up 2%. followed by united health group and dow which is up 1.5%.

we are checking the bond market following the inflation reports and busy week for earnings and economic data. the benchmark at 4.2%. here's what we know at this hour. former president trump said he was shot in the ear and the incident left one person dead and two others injured. 5:30 a.m. on the east coast and president trump decided to arrive in milwaukee last night. the former president telling supporters that it is more important than ever to unite. the speech this week at the rnc will take a different tone shifting away from the policies of the current administration and toward a message of unity. the former president speaking with cnbc's own joe kernen saying in part that he is grateful for words of encouragement from both sides of the aisle.

in a rare oval offices a addres president biden speaking out on political discourse in our country. >> all of us now face a time of test during the time of the election. the higher the stakes, the more fervent the atmosphere. we must neverscend into violence. >> apple ceo tim cook saying he is praying for the rapid recovery of trump and the victims of the shooting. jeff bezos praising trump for the grace and courage under fire. and pat gelsinger saying high l violence has no place in our society.

thomas matthew crooks acted alone and investors are looking to piece together to what led to the shooting. the two victims of the assassination attempt are in the hospital, but in stable condition. for more, we have emily wilkins with more on the impact of the election. good morning. >> good morning, frank. an increasingly polarized america. what happens at the top of the ticket impacts the race below it especially this year with the house and senate in play. republicans and democratic strategists i spoke with over the weekend are expected to see trump get a bump in polling numbers because of his response to the assassination attempt and, of course, that photo of him fist bumping and because of the rnc convention that begins in milwaukee. trump arrive there yesterday. conventions are a time when candidates get a boost in the

polls. gop pollster frank luntz posted on xyesterday that voters will go back to their initial choice by the time the polls open. now trump voters have more motivation to go to the polls, especially in the swing state of pennsylvania. those have called off backing trump. speaker mike johnson said on the "today" show that both parties should avoid personal attacks. >> we have to turn the rhetoric down and all leaders to call that out and make sure that happens so we can go forward and maintain our free society that we are all blessed to have. >> reporter: in the wake of the assassination attempt, all four campaign arms, house and senate and democratic and republican,

paused digital fundraising efforts and ads according to aides with each group. the trump campaign paused ads briefly as well, but sending out digital fundraising emails yesterday afternoon and the biden campaign also paused its political activity, but it is planning to resume tonight after biden's interview with lester h holt. frank. >> we see people on both sides of the aisle decry the political violence. i see calls to tone down the political rhetoric. how do you see this messaging for the broader campaign? >> reporter: i think it is going to be very interesting to see exactly how both democrats and republicans handle this. you reported earlier, of course, that trump is looking to change his message at the rnc. both democrats and republican strategists i talked to over the weekend said the focus needs to go back to policy and the focus back to the issues.

there is plenty to debate there. you see the focus on project 2025 and the proposals laid out. republicans feel comfortable they have the interest of a lot of voters with issues like the economy and immigration. it will be interesting to see going forward exactly if those issues do come a little bit more into the spotlight and if we have a toning down of the rhetoric. of course, for a lot of democrats, even in last night's speech, biden alluded to january 6th. that is something the democrats try to draw distinction on and interesting to see how they handle that issue going forward. >> emily wilkins live in d.c. thank you very much. turning back to the market reaction to the assassination attempt to donald trump. let's bring in sam stovall. sam, good morning. good to see you. >> good morning, frank. good to see you. >> sam, you gave us some information or data on assassination attempts on candidates going back to teddy

roosevelt. is this something investors should look to with the markets today? i know you are expecting to see a similar result. >> i think investors should certainly be aware of what has happened in the past. obviously, the good news is that former president trump was not injured more than the ear and he was not killed. as a result, i think the market will continue on its momentum ways focusing on more gdp growth and earnings prospects, et set ra et cetera. >> in general, we heard growing talk about the quote/unquote trump trade with trump having the lead in the race. some polling shows it is neck and neck or within the margin of error. soc gen looking at the trump trade and biden trade. the biden trade having more

upside so far. do you see more investors growing into the trump trade sectors that would benefit if trump is reelected? >> well, cfra analysis washington group which is a political strategy group gives about a 60% likelihood we will have a trump re-election and an increased probability of both houses of congress going republican as well. so, a unified government going back to world war ii has been the second best performing scenario up 10.2% on average. the first best, as you were talking earlier, a split congress. essentially, the feeling is investors will be focusing more on a trump trade. if they are not really sure, they will likely benefit from either candidate. i think that would be the defense area. looking for increase in defense spending and even though the prospect right now is for only about a rise of ee qquivalent t

inflation. >> sam, right now, we are seeing moves maybe to safe haven assets like gold and bitcoin, if you consider bitcoin a safe haven asset. in your mind, where are the opportunities following the assassination attempt? last week, we did see a lot of volatility when it comes to tech. >> i think the opportunities lie in the also rands, if you will. last week, i called the under dog uprising with midcaps and small caps and value stocks out perform. 8 86% of the constituents with 1,500 rose in price. we will look at the mid and small caps running at 30% discount relative to the pe over the last 20 years. we are likely to be seeing

improvements in foreign stocks which are trading at a 20% discount. mainly because we will see a rate cut starting in september and that would make u.s. and fixed investments less attractive to foreign investors. so, probably seeing a softening of the u.s. dollar. >> sam stovall, thank you. let's go to ian bremmer. he now joins us on the cnbc news line. ian, good morning. >> good morning to you. >> i know you had been taking calls from clients all weekend long. what are you telling them about the assassination attempt or impact on the markets. >> not much on the impact of the markets because it was likely trump was going to win before and it still is. i mean, there's lots of reasons to believe that you'll have support for the markets on a lot

of the business relevant pieces of a donald trump administration with the tax cuts and regulatory rollback and business friendly and less focus on climate and transition energy. all of that is the reason that the markets despite trump being elected the first time around, same thing an lapplies. on the other hand, the rule of law does start to concern markets. also with tariffs. especially with a 10% tariff acro across the board globally and 60% on china. that is a major impact on the global economy and the u.s. economy that isn't yet, i think, something that most people or most businesses or most investors are thinking about. >> all right. you are saying prior to this, it wasn't top of mind. we are hearing a lot of people on both sides of the aisle decry

political violence. as you talk to clients about what clearly is an elevated level of tension when it comes to this campaign, what are you telling them? what advice do you give them with something so unexpected? >> i wish it was unexpected. the fact is that the likelihood that we were going to see political violence on a significant level back in january, we thought it was inevitable. the u.s. was the number one risk for the year despite the fact we had major wars going in europe and in the middle east. the question is how do you deal with the fact that the most powerful country in the world, the strongest economy in the world, is also, by far, the most dysfunctional political systems among major democracies. yes, that does lead to social

instability and it leads to violence and it leads to an electoral cycle when most americans believe that the enemy is inside the house and is their political opposition. when 75% of americans polled believe that democracy is a serious threat because of this election, but they don't agree on why. 25% actually agree with the statement that patriotism means it may require violence in order to defend your country and you shouldn't be surprised you see extremism and some of this is going to become weaponized. we all saw that and it almost was a world changing event a couple of days ago. >> ian, you are feeling this

personal ramification. we are seeing a lot of global elections as well as in the u.s. as they look at the political shifting going on, what would you tell them? how would you tell them to view this terrible incident, but also the fact we are seeing other elections and others that may be contentious as well? >> well, it's actually the fact that others aren't contentious. you have to compare the united states to the other democracies around the world that are holding elections and have had no problems with free and fair transfer. our special relationship has been across the pond with the uk. a country we feel so closely to and similar to us. we understand each other. we trust each other. they just had an election and i'm sure you saw that outcome prime minister rishi sunak and incoming now prime minister keir starmer spoke with unity and respected each other. both really exemplified public

service. the idea you serve as prime minister, you are serving. you are serving the public. not just part of the public that voted for you, but the entire public. by the way, that's how elections were held in mexico and across the european union and their parliament and then in france and in india and south africa and indonesia. democracies around the world aren't in crisis. there is only one that is that has any size. that's the united states. it's important to think about why it is and what's different from the u.s. and these countries which led to so much anger and dysfunction and institutions to increasingly erode that the people are concerned about the functionality of the u.s. institutions and what values america stands for. just because the united states is having a problem doesn't mean everybody else is. i think that should require some

reflection on the part of america. >> you know, the peaceful transition of power is still important to the united states and democracy. ian bremmer, thank you for your time and insight. coming up on "worldwide exchange," more on the big stories and the luxury sector with one bellwether. we will have details when "worldwide exchange" returns. stay with us.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." we are watching shares of european luxury companies hit hard on the warning from burberry. arabile gumede is joining us live from london. arabile. >> frank, a hard hit here for burberry. it has been a hit for the stock as well as swatch and lvmh and kering which owns gucci in the overall picture. yes, you are seeing the negative trend, but the cac 40 is driven down by the retail luxury stocks, i should say, and is off the back of burberry. the ceo jonathan akeroyd and replaced with joshua schulman. this as the house reported disappointing first quarter numbers and suspending its dividend. this is the worst day for the

stock in a decade. 15% weaker overall. this has really rippled through the rest of the luxury sector. in fact, so much so, you see negativity across the board for these. lvmh managing to go down 1.4%. hugo boss down 2.4. as you can tell from the picture, burberry down 15%. big downfall for feragamo with the big decline as well with the decline of swatch also pointing to a tough economic environment. the economic recovery for the consumer is not faring well for the luxury players. frank. >> arabile, thank you very much. arabile gumede live from london. we have a market flash on super micro. we are watching shares following the news on friday that the company will replaced walgreens boots alliance in the nasdaq 100 before july 22nd. shares up over 2%. super micro will replace walgreens boots alliance in the

nasdaq 100 on july 22nd. coming up on "worldwide exchange," the largest deal ever. details on reported alphabet acquisition and multibillion dollar bet on one cybersecurity player. we'll be right back after this break. what is cirkul? cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. cirkul is your frosted treat with a sweet kick of confidence. cirkul is the effortless energy that gets you in the zone. cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul.com.

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this weekend's big stories. it looks like the dow would open up 200 points higher. speaking to the former president, shares of trump media up over 40%. and looking at rumble. they are surging up 15%. this morning, we were watching shares of alphabet which is in advanced talks to buy security start up wiz for $23 billion. wiz raised $1 billion early they are year at the valuation of $12 billion. shares of alphabet up marginally in the pre-market. goldman sachs and bank of america will report later this week with morgan stanley. we hear from netflix and travelers and american express. on the economic front, data on retail sales and housing starts along with the fed beige book. we will hear from several officials, including chairman

powell later today. coming up on "worldwide exchange," our next guest says the market could hit a reset button ahead of the busy week of earnings and the fallout of the assassination attempt of former president trump. we're back in just a moment.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." as we close out the hour, look at futures. thedow pulling back slightly. all three indices up .13%. let's bring in malcolm ethridge. malcolm, good morning. >> good to see you, man. >> after this weekend's events, the assassination attempt on former president trump, how do you see the market? >> i think as we make our way through today and the week, the market will get choppier, especially in the nasdaq. >> you are looking for choppiness. we are seeing a rise in bitcoin and also gold. do you expect to see that continue in the short-term with so much uncertainty? >> that is part of the reason i say nasdaq specifically where a lot of volatility will be. investors will sell off winners trying to protect those gains and looking for more sure bets

and safety which, interestingly enough, to your point, has been in bitcoin over the weekend. >> what about the so-called trump trade and stocks that would benefit from the trump re-election? we heard about it last week, but do you see that definitely happening this week or continuing if you believe it happened last week as well? >> i think it is twofold. i think investors are wanting to move to where they think the trump trade is which is defense spending more than anything else, but also i think investors are concerned that a second trump term could bring with it a little bit more inflation than we have seen in the last 18 months maybe since the fed has been working so hard to bring it down. it is a bit of a double-edged sword, but investors are making bets on both sides. >> you have a pick for us. the elevator pitch. cisco systems. why is that a good opportunity for investors today? >> i think cisco with the acquisition of splunk shows it

is working to be more of a platform company and take on the likes of palo alto. i see them pushing into that space a little bit further. >> we see reports of alphabet possibly acquiring a cyber company as well. malcolm, thank you very much. that does it for "worldwide exchange." "squawk box." starts right now. good morning. fallout from the assassination attempt of former president trump. we will take you live to milwaukee where former president arrived. we will tell about the changes of the biden campaign and trump campaign after the violence at the rally. bitcoin is back close to 63,000.

shares of trump media are higher by more than 65%. it's monday, july 15th, 2024 and "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. monday morning. lots to talk about. before we dig into what's on everybody's mind this morning, let's look at futures. u.s. equity futures are higher across the board. dow up close to 200 points. 190 points right now. s&p futures are up 20. nasdaq indicated up by over 75. if you look at what has been happening with the treasury markets, the 30-year long term