tv Street Signs CNBC July 16, 2024 4:00am-5:01am EDT
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that nana wasn't coming home. when do you miss your dad the most? every day when i look at my kids because i know what a wonderful grandfather he would have been and the jokes and the games and probably the toys they would have made for them. they never got a chance to roll their eyes at a jim joke. [laughs] yeah. yeah. that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm craig melvin. thank you for watching. ♪ welcome to "street signs." my namee is arabile gumede and these are your headlines. donald trump announcing j.d.
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vance as his running make in his first appearance since the assassination attempt. biden tells the threat from trump is too grave to ignore. >> focus on it. focus on what's doing. focus on his policies. focus on the number of lies he told in the debate. i mean, there's a whole range of things. i'm not the guy that said i want to be a dictator on day one. hugo boss comes unstitched in trade in early days since the fashion house cut its sales guidance for the second time this year. and ocado surges to the top after reporting a smaller loss in the first half. a packed show for you.
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let's kickoff with donald trump who has tapped former credit p j.d. vance, the 59-year-old senator from ohio. in a statement, the biden campaign said trump made the pick because vance will, quote, bend over backwards to enable the former president and his extreme maga agenda. speaking to fox news, sean hannity spoke about the issue over biden's age. >> the democrats want to run from this. they're saying joe biden has to step down or can't run for president. that is political cynicism. they should have been saying it three years ago. >> vancegeopolitics, including the war in ukraine. >> russia would not have invaded ukraine if donald trump were president. here is the issue.
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we spent $200 million. what's the goal? what are we trying to accomplish? there is when you have a bafoon running foreign policy in washington, d.c. i think what president trump has promised to do is go in and negotiate and bring this to a rapid close so america can focus on the real issue which is china an. that is the biggest threat in our country and we're distracted from it. donald trump was handed another victory after the florida judge dismissed the case in the classified documents trial. the appointment and funding for the special council jack smith was illegal. trump took to the truth social site saying all of these supposed witch hunts should be dismissed against him. joe biden sat down with lester
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holt. he said it is impossible to know how the assassination attempt may affect the contest. >> i don't know and you don't know either. >> i don't know. is it something you've given thought to? >> i thought less about the trajectory of the case over two things. one, what his health is. that is secure. number one. and number two, what happens here on in terms of the type of coverage the president and vice president and former president and new vice president get in terms of -- look, i've never seen a circumstance where you ride through certain rural areas of the country and people have signs, trump signs saying f-biden and little kid standing there putting up his middle finger. that's the kind of stuff that's inflammatory.
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moving to earnings season. seb second yquarter beating market expectations. that was offset by other revenue extremes including net flows into the managed business and strength in investment banking. let's chat to the ceo of seb. johan, i appreciate the time. i appreciate it. still signs of improving credit deman demand. why do you think that is? >> i think it is important to remind oneself that banking in the short-term is beta, not alpha. as you point out, it is drifting downwards as interest rates are going down. by the same token, the same
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interest rates and expectations of further interest rates, spur higher activity in the bank like seb. both on the loan demand side, but we spaw encouraging signs i net inflow. the activity side is doing better while the balance part has obvious headwinds. >> do you think this will translate into the dropoff in net interest income? >> my guess is it will mitigate it, but it will not be sufficient if we were lower interest rates by 75 or 100 basis points to fully compensate for it. the balance sheet is built up over a long, long time and has a powerful impact on the financial result. it certainly can mitigate it through volumes and ohigher activity and fees and
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commission. >> how much strength is there in the net interest incomes? that is the big talking point. is the strain going to be seen from the top end now or is this perhaps a longer-term thing you have to worry about in about a year or two years time as interest rates go down lowly? >> first, we don't guide on nii. secondly, i have no clue. there will definitely be a period if it is one or two years where this happened. this has just started. this is not the end. this is kind of the beginning. we have seen one cut during this quarter and more will come. then the market dynamics will dictate a lot of the outcome of the cuts. margins and volumes will be very important when we sit here in a year to explain how the financial result in the end ended up. right now, that's clearly the direction of travel. >> on the other side of this, those credit losses seem to be not as bad as the past. have you seen the worst of it
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all? >> we do expect credit losses, as you know, these days. we are forward looking. the minimal expected loss number we put in this is actually forward looking number. that is to say that the asset quality remains exceptionally robust. we have taken a little bit of reserves all the way from covid and the war in ukraine. we are well catered for. right now, it is a very benign environment where most, if not all of our clients pay their bills and redeem their loans without problems. >> i want to focus on the shipping loan book in the first half of the year. how do you see that faring for the second half with what looks like a little bit of stability and hopefully a better sentiment with the middle east and in that shipping region too? >> it's a very small part of the bank and i don't have a particular projection on the shipping loan book. one can say that the important thing in shipping is always to
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have the right clients and counter parties with well equipped management and capital truc structure. it is a high area risk of lending. >> the bigger risks. deposit flowing in household as well as the corporate segment all points to what looks like a very healthy bank. >> yeah, thank you. that's exactly. i would agree with you. it is a very healthy bank. the issue is lower inflation. inflation seems to be under control. let's hope that is true. that means real disposable income is not eroded by the thing you need. it is created by excess savings in the personal economy and that is the requisite for increased in savings which we did note this quarter. >> the overall sentiment in sweden and across as well,
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johan, is really just around the drop offs in interest rates trying to get the economy better. is there a clear sense then that that is coming through and consumers are getting more positive, shall we say, on the economic circumstances? >> i would say yes, there is a very clear sense that is about to happen. however, it's early days. so, there's a lot of positive expectations out there and, of course, you can always be worried that those expectations won't materialize. there certainly is a positive st tone. please remember, sweden is a high sensitive nation. we have a high degree floating debt. when rates go up, we under perform. when rates go down, we out performance get the impact faster than is common around the world. >> i mean, you have the cost target for yourselves which does remain below the 29 billion
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swedish krona as well. how delicate is that balance to remain below that mark? >> i would say it is a tricky thing with your colleagues that you are in a technical pre precision. this year is more tricky because we have inflation still around the system. we have elevated price levels in had many critical areas of the bank. not at least information systems. the swedish krona is weak. everything we buy in foreign currency is more expensive when we record it in the swedish krona. we will do everything to meet the cost target. we will have a little bit of work the second half of the year. >> investors seem to like it as well on the back of the numbers. we will chat again.
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thank you for chatting with us on "street signs." . t the ceo of seb. you see the green here which is .50% weaker. remember, there is the political uncertainty with the economic uncertainty still at play. the big ticket item for the week is europe is the ecb meeting as well. that's what we're looking toward then on thursday. sectors and bourses are sitting in red. that will be a major talking point then in this market picture overall. we are looking at some of the sectors. this is what is moving things along. here is the overall market bourses. red across the board. .10% weaker for one we have been watching a lot. that the cac 40 having gone down from the mark we have seen earlier this year.
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the ftse 100 is .50% weaker. dax is down .23% in the early morning trade. an hour and ten minutes since the market opened in europe. on to the sectors. these have gone down in negative territory. real estate down .10%. basic resources and mining stocks getting a hit. i thought we would make note around the luxury stock sentiment as well with technology also getting a hit. household goods are the ones we will look out for with the luxury space getting hit as well today. stay tuned. another warning sign for the luxury sector as i said. hugo boss lowering the full-year guidance citing weaker consumer demand. we'll have the latest on that and more next. it's hard to run a business on your own. make it easier on
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interest income came in short, the lender posted 8.6 billion kronas. a sentiment that is shared somewhat by the ceo of seb. the ceo told "squawk" he expects conditions in the bank key market to um pimprove. >> when we look ahead to estonia and latvia, we expect growth to be between 2 % and 3% next year. these are countries with low public debt and strong belief in low inflation. that means looking ahead, i'm pretty optimistic when it comes to our countries, but still, a lot of swedes and baltics feel under pressure now. i feel it will look better if we look ahead. on to the retail space,
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ocado raised the guidance after the operating loss in the first quarter of 140 million pounds. the ceo responded to speculation the company could consider a u.s. listing saying it is not something it is currently working on. the stock getting a bump of 11%. that has begun to ease off. volatile stock that you have seen move significantly from around $10 to now $3.78. rio tinto has seen a negative impact from the train derailment in the site of western australia. it did refirm the guidance for the iron ore shipments.
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dropping off by more than 3%. on to the luxury space. richemont with a 1% growth in the sales of the exchange rate in the first quarter amid weakness in the asia-pacific markets having almost grown by one fifth a year ago. the exchange rates and the luxury group seeing single digit growth at the jewelry and fashion business which helped to offset lower demand on its specialist watchmaker unit. taking a little bit of an increase at 1.2%. it is oscillating in the early trading. on to another one which has taken a bit of a hit. hugo boss lowering the full-year sales guidance with the weaker consumer demand in key markets like china as well as the united
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kingdom. annette is joining us for more. annette, demand is hitting hugo boss for the eleluxury brands wh we thought would be the saving grace. >> if you look at what happens to the shares today, they are down by 9% in reaction to the second profit warning in just a y year's time. the problem is not just the revenue strength, but also the cost problem. if you look at top line, revenues are down in the quarter 1% and ebit tells you how operating profit goes is down 40% year on year because they spend more money on marketing and retail store chain. that is crucial and it sounds like a home grown problem, not just the consumers everywhere,
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ps especially in china and in uk with the affordability life crisis eating up earnings and potentially savings not at a high level, especially not in china. that tells you the story of hugo boss. they have not top luxury, but stuck in the middle. this particular part of the market seems to be hurt the most when it comes to spending power. so, what they are saying is that especially the uk and china are doing poorly. as i said, the costs issue is there as well and that's a homemade issue. analysts were quite surprised about the severity of the profit warning because they, for example, the ebit expected or forecast sitting at 441 million
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for the year and now the company is targeting at a range of 350 to 430. that could mean a drop for the full-year operating profit of fully 15%. so, things are not really easy at hugo boss. that was the weakest quarter ever for the ceo who took the job in 2021. >> kind of showing itself with the share price going down 46%. annette, thank you so much for that update as well. let's talk to john cox, the head of european consumer equities to unpack the luxury sector more. yesterday was burberry and swatch, john. today is richemont and hugo boss. are the alarm bells ringing? >> yes, i think so. there has been a general
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slowdown in the luxury business after the post-covid boom. this year, everyone was hoping china was back big time and that hasn't happened. most analyst models, china and the china region and china tourist accounts for half of the luxury sector growth. there just isn't a cohort out there which can take up the slack. north america is rumbling along okay and europe is pretty resilient as well as the middle east and japan on the back of the chinese tourists. china is a bit of a black hole at the moment. we're slightly concerned that we could see this weakness continue for some time and consumer confidence in china is very, very weak and potentially we could see that continue into well of next year. >> one hopes so with perhaps not necessarily in china, but globally with lower interest rates that things would perhaps begin to come back.
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i know it is perhaps a longer-term story over a medium-turn one, but could that be the case? not enough, of course, to mitigate the losses you get out of china though, right? >> i think there's a lot of different things going on. one of which in the last ten years, we have seen the demock tie sags of the luxury goods and it has brought in more fashion conscious buyers. those guys in the luxury space have disappeared. we are seeing the ongoing trend toward travel and some luxury goods companies talking about how maybe some of those younger consumers would prefer to travel. i don't think this trend will continue forever. i think overall fundamentals for luxury goods are very good. they are all made in europe. it's one of the few industries that europe does very, very well indeed. it takes years to build brands
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and brand integrity. high pricing power. i think they will come back. i think our concern is this weakness in china will probably go on for longer than many anticipate. as a result, the overall sector may trust trundle along by a couple percent compared to high single digit if not double digit growth many people come to expect. as a result, there will be pressure on estimates and multiples over the next coming months and quarters. >> john, i thought was selectiveness and people would be choosey. the best in class, lvmh, is still worthy of one getting into. it doesn't look that way with the share price falling 21% over the past year. >> yeah, certainly we as a house are cautious on the sector. however, we think the genuine luxury companies will do pretty
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well. our preferred pick is actually hermes. second to none in terms of waiting list for products. if you have a waiting list, no matter how the down turn is, you have pricing with volume growth. hermes is clearly the most luxury. we like the richemont at 4% in the recent quarter compared to the double digit decline in watches. the last one we would highlight is prada. this is more in the fashion end of the space. if you manage to capture the attention of consumers and prada is clearly doing that and you can do very well. in contrast, you can see some of the soft luxury guide elsewhere.
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hugo boss and burberry and for whatever reason, the collection is not working. management changes yesterday with burberry replacing the ceo. that means it will be another year before we see if another turn around will work. hugo boss. there are not much alarm bells with hugo boss. they are spending on marketing and retail, but the underline collection looks okay compared to burberry at 20% plus. it shows you need to choose the companies which are genuine luxury or resill egypt and you can pretty much ignore the rest afternoon the moment. >> john, congratulations picking the three ones to best perform as well in the last 12 months, even year to date. with the weakness you see in the players with hugo boss and especially in the likes of
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burberry, m&a chances in the sector. why is that not happening? >> that's a good question. if you look at the overall sector, balance sheets are pretty strong and pretty resilient. however, if you look at the most obvious buyers of a burberry or elsewhere in the space, you are pretty hard to find the companies. does lvmh or kering need a burberry compared to the decent brands they have? richemont, does it really want t take over a skost luxury brand? it is difficult to see who would actually be the buyers in this case? we still hear lots of different gossip of lvmh and richemont turning into a mega deal down the road.
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i wouldn't be surprised to see more of the italian smaller names being picked up over the next year or two. i think there's a lot of interest in the italian sector and maybe consolidation going on among the smaller family owned names. it's difficult to point out who the natural buyer would be for some of the other under performing luxury goods companies. >> that's why you keep seeing burberry struggling and trying to go along and all they they a although they are restructuring, it seems nobody is buying it. john cox , thank you. coming up on the show, donald trump confirming his pick for running mate as the rnc gets under way in milwaukee. we'll have more on this next.
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the former president making his first public appearance since the assassination attempt. and joe biden says the threat from trump is too grave to ignore. >> focus on him. focus on what he's doing. focus on his policies. focus on the number of lies he told in the debate. i mean, there's a whole range of things. look, i'm not the guy who said i want to be a dictator on day one. and hugo boss shares hitting the lowest level after the fashion house cuts sales guidance for the second time this year. ocado surges after reporting the smaller loss in the first half.
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elon musk has reportedly said he will commit around $45 million a month to a new pac in a donald trump run for president according to "the wall street journal." it comes on the back of the report that the group has spent $15 million on trump over the last few weeks. musk endorsed donald trump for president following the saturday an as assassination attempt. donald trump has tapped j.d. vance as his running mate. trump made an appearance at the republican national convention which has kicked off in milwaukee, wisconsin. let's head over to nbc's brie jackson who joins us for more.
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brie, this is the apprentice and j.d. vance has been hired. >> reporter: that's right. good morning. here at the convention yesterday, it was a big surprise. the announcement of the former president's vice presidential pick came in the morning time and via social media. j.d. vance was announced as former president trump's vice presidential pick. he is probably best known for his best selling memoir "hill billy elegy." he is a graduate of yale law school. he was a vocal critic of donald trump in the 2016 election. now he has become one of his biggest allies. >> brie, this is a poignant moment, i suppose.
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is the tone then from the remainder of republicans that this is the move for the future? >> reporter: well, itremains to be seen what this means. i think j.d. vance pretty much said in the interview yesterday what he plans to bring to the table. that's loyalty. democrats, that's what they're pounding on. they're blasting former president trump's pick calling vance an enabler. he is a clone of trump. that is what president biden called j.d. vance. he basically said he is someone who will go along with former president trump and just be a clone of his policies. >> brie, thank you so much for the time. i appreciate it. things are certainly in the role of things as we head toward that election in november. a survey has found 40% of americans believe trump is responsible for the conditions that led to saturday's attempt
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on his life. eli yokley is joining us now. eli, thank you so much for the time. we'll get to j.d. vance in just a moment. i wanted to focus a little bit on that, you know, on that poll that you actually put out first. trump's first appearance since the assassination attempt then, could you ultimately see a change in tone on the basis that some believe the rhetoric that has been formed so far is partly with him to blame? >> it's possible. donald trump said he was rewriting his convention speech for this thursday. we will see if he does that. it's certainly not his political instincts since he meemerged on the stage in 2015. we will have to see how he changes. it is not his bread and butter.
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he is a candidate for public office who engaged in loud, boisterous republican politics. it is his secret sauce. he has been able to activist a bunch of conservative voters in the united states who other republican politicians have not been able to embrace. last night on stage at the republican national convention, we saw a bit of an outreach to less traditional republican groups. they had the head of the big labor union here in the united states. going after the american chamber of commerce on stage in front of a bunch of republicans. i think if you had a moment where donald trump thought he could get sympathy from the american people and try to reset his image, this might be it, especially in the face of the pretty unpopular incumbent democratic president who is polling just a little bit better than. >> i wonder if the j.d. vance
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pick certainly means the voters along the fringes oultimately come into scope for voters who sway to the right and then he they have in the past. >> when donald trump picked mike pence in 2016 to be his running mate, he extended an offlive branch to the christian. j.d. vance is a different republican politics. more trumpian. it focuses on at least talking to the working class voters. our survey since 2016, donald trump has done at least one good thing for the republican party and that has made working class voters think the republican party cares a little bit more
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about them. j.d. vance is in that vain. i don't want to overstate j.d. vance. when you bring somebody like that in donald trump's orbit, donald trump will make them more popular. it will not make donald trump more popular. only half of the voters formed opinions about j.d. vance so far. they're pretty weak. he is untested on the national stage. he is a best selling author and in the senator the last couple years. his creditbility is yet to be seen. we will learn more. >> i want to talk about the debate stage in a moment. what does this mean for the older establishment then? does this in a way drain the swamp of the old-style republican swamp that we have gotten to know over the last couple years? >> i think the swamp is still there, to use your word. there's a lot of republican money that comes from the same circles that will show up. i think given trump's
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competitiveness and if we see some sort of public facing reset from the former president this week, any that was reluctant was about to come into line. think about the most establishment republican figure that comes to mind. minority leader mitch mcconnell of kentucky. he was one of the people introducing donald trump as he was heading toward the republican nomination yesterday. that comes after mitch mcconnell's biggest critic after the capitol attack back in 2021. these are always moments where the party begins to coualesce. i think all of the parts of the republican party may start to work together as they look to beat joe biden in november. >> let's talk about the debate then. it possibly could happen. i know kamala harris has set out an invite to j.d. vance for a
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debate and on the back of this. how do you see the 39-year-old senator from ohio faring when you have what is still, despite what anybody might say, a well versed political giant that is kamala harris? >> yeah. he is a versed speaker. he's able to go out and form arguments that trump would make and in a bit of a softer way if he wants to and that is not the role of the vice presidential running mate. the vice presidential running mate is traditionally known as the attack dog. kamala harris is somebody who has spent the last four years articulating president biden's vision. that's her job. she has not necessarily been the driver of everything she says just given the fact that she's out there to speak for the president. what we're going to watch is if
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she's even in that seat. the democratic party is facing a ton of pressure from folks here in washington who are highly concerned about president biden's age. this isn't quite matched by a surge of energy behind replacing biden at the top of the ticket at the democratic base. only half of democratic voters think he should be. that is standing in line with the first presidential debate. this is a pretty uncertain time as we head through the republican party convention and get toward the democratic party convention and democrats look to decide which debate stage kamala harris will be trying out for. >> very quickly, eli, this is still early in the cycle technically speaking. a lot still is at play and can certainly happen. where to from here in this race? what happens next? what is the big focus points
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that you will be looking out for? >> i think we're going to watch for how the american people respond to donald trump this week. i know we talked about some sort of public facing softening of the former president's image. this is taking some attention off president biden. i think it might slow some of the calls from democratic officials for his ouster from the nominee. then, you know, we'll watch how he performis as we get closer t the democratic national convention next month. see how he brings the democratic party together with the way donald trump is bringing the represent party together here. >> eli yokeley, thank you. coming up on the show, paris olympics are just days away. tanya spoke with sebastian coe.
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the german cabinet is reportedly planning to green light its draft for the 2025 budget leaving a 27 billion euro hole according to reuters. the draft includes 1781 billion euro of revenues. france has left the frack shun o fraction that won the seats in the general electric has u suspended talks. fr france's melechon said it would not do so incuntil the national assembly had done so. thisfrance will provide the biggest back drop for the summer olympics set to kickoff in paris
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on july 26th. is it the biggest sporting event on earth? some would say football. >> football which we were arguing about yesterday, i'll have you know. >> we will continue to argue that. it's not so far away. ten days? >> ten days away. 1 10,500 athletes will descend upon paris. it is the 33rd and with the political instability going on right now in france, i think the people are worried would that overshadow the games. i caught up with lord sebastian coe if he thought it would be i hope pimpacted. >> i don't think it will be impacted. you cannot control every variable. the most important thing in most
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any organizing committee that is delivering an olympic games is creating the most resilient relationships you can have. in france, i am sure that all of things that really matter to the delivery of the games are in good shape because i'm sure they have the same sorts of relationships. >> some athletes from russia b belarus are to compete. >> two years ago we looked at this issue very closely and decided that it wasn't tenable to give complete flexibility in the ability to compete to those countries which had been transgr transgressors. it has been done on the history of the sport. >> what do you make of the calls that israel should have been banned from the olympics? >> this is a very different situation.
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the judgment we made about the suspension of russia and belarus was based on the global response across the board. that hasn't been the case in israel. look, we made a tough judgment. obviously, every situation and every sport and every organization needs to maintain a vigilance and monitoring on that. that was a -- the russia-belarus issue was us was a very different for one. >> you can see my full interview with sebastian coe on cnbc.com. i hope you won't be missing that. watch the whole thing. i'm going to test you. >> a tough test. very interestingly. a few changes put forward as well for these olympics. >> so seb coe is a double gold olympic winner himself. a legend in the world of
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olympics. he's president of world athletics. that governing body put forward for the first time in olympic history prize money if you win a dpo gold in track and field. >> are you telling me that usain bolt and everyone who have won gold have not been winning prize money? >> not in actual olympics. because they won gold medals, that is priceless itself. from that, it gives them the platform. this is the first time where they are actually giving money, $50,000. when l.a. comes around in 2028, they want to award silver and bronze medalists as well. >> that's incredible. it is just happening in track and field. what happens to the rest of the field? the rest of the field is not getting that? >> it is down to the individual governing bodies.
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world athletics decided that. each governing body will have to decide in their field. >> tanya, i appreciate it. do catch that interview then with the world athletics federation president as well. thank you so much for all of that. let' let's move to the markets with the u.s. federal chair jay powell saying it will not wait until it hits the 2% target before it cuts rates. speaking at the forum in washington, d.c. saying waiting to inflation to get to 2% to cut rates, it would be too late. that would drive inflation even lower. goldman sachs topped the expectations with profit more than doubling on the year in the second quarter. it soared 150% to just over $3 billion. this was boosted by strong debt
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underwriting as well as fixed income revenue which jumped 17 th17% year on year. they fell short on investment banking fees which rose 21%. assets managed by blackrock hit a high in the second quarter topping $10.6 trillion. investors added $83 billion to etfss in the quarter which had their best start to the year on record according to ceo larry fink. larry fink told jim cramer that high deficits to plague the u.s. for years to come. >> we have rising deficits for years to come. the u.s. deficit is the largest in the world. growing at the fastest rate in the world and we need to find ways to minimize the role of the deficits on the economy and interest rates and inflation and
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we need to grow. if we can't grow out of these deficits, they will be becoming a big burden and we're putting it on the back of our children and grandchildren. a burden of the massive spends that we can't afford. >> i think it is important to point out you did not say one candidate is more pro-spend than another. >> it is all pro-spend. >> i do think it is important that president trump has been adamant there is too much regulation under president biden. i would have to believe that business would be unfettered and if they are unfettered, that could help the growth which would therefore lower the deficit. >> we need unfettered businesses right now. we need growth. we're going to get growth from the private sector. we cannot rely on public deficits anymore. the public deficits are growing too fast as a percentage of gdp. our deficits were only $8
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trillion in 2020. they will be $36 trillion. we grew deficits $1 trillion a year over the last four years. it is unsustainable. we have the most capitalistic system in the world. we have great innovation and technology. let it go. let it create great jobs and create opportunities. we'll have a rising equity market that will really fuel this opportunity. >> the big earnings don't stop there. bank of america is due to report before the bell today. don't miss the first on cnbc interview with ceo brian moynahan at 13:40 cet. a quick market picture. the ibex 35 is the biggest loser so far on .23%. ftse 100 is 30% weaker. overall markets, we are along
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