across the board. >> earnings, lower yield, the 10-year has been slumping, giving that target of, you know, as a possibility here. when greg branch gave up his hawkish position and turned bullish. >> you have to see how this all ends and that means "closing bell: overtime" at 4:00 p.m. >> see you then. thanks so much. "closing bell" starts right now. >> and welcome to "closing bell." i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner. this make or break hour begins with the revenge of the rejects. the unloved and under appreciated parts of this market, that small cap, banks, transports all continuing their ferocious comeback, started about a week ago against the former mega cap leaders. take a look at the scorecard with 06 minutes to go in regulation. the s&p 500, participating up about 0.5% at a closing record right now. the intraday closing high, 566 for those who are superstitious.

the dow up 1.le%. 200 points or so is united health care up on earnings. nasdaq composite has been the laggard up about 0.8%. then the russell 2000. continuing its run up 3.75%, up more than 10% over five trading days at levels not seen for some 32 months. it peaked back in november of 2021 all time. advances across the market outpacing declinersp by a three to one ratio. is this all inclusive rally a breadth of fresh leadership or a particularly aggressive snapback by laggard groups after a long run of under performance. let's ask an tash shah am rosa, chief investment strategist at i-capital. good to see you. >> good to see you. >> on just a reflex in small caps against large, this is a

genuine title change in terms of market leadership and emphasis and the macro message. where do you come down. >> the great rotation we've been waiting for all year. coming into the year the thesis this is likely to be a thesis of a optionality for investors predicated on the fact that the fed is going to cut rates. here we are finally looks like the fed is likely to cut rates, maybe not in july but in september, and that gives not just the sentiment support to some of the trades but the fundamental support to a lot of these trades. why are the small caps rallying? they have a lot of leverage hopefully going to reset lower once the fed cuts rates. why are the regional banks rallying? they have a lot of unrealize the losses that maybe will turn into not gains, but at least smaller losses if the fed actually cuts rates. i think there's something very much real happening with the rotation trade. >> i guess the question is, can it remain this perfect in a

sense where you still have the big cap indexes holding up near records as opposed to it being a little more of a zero sum game? i think back to, you know, if you look at the russ 28,000 relative to the s&p or the nasdaq, right before all this started last week, it was at like a 22, if relative low, small caps were. >> right. >> you go back and look at the 25-year chart, and it blasted off in relative terms. why? because big cap growth collapsed in the tech bubble bust. that's the question for me, in absolute terms all boats float but some, you know, some higher than others or do we have to brace for some chop? >> well, there's nuances to that. i call it a rotation because i do think the time is right to take some gains in mega cap tech, and, you know, the catalyst is starting to change a little bit. why is tech rallied so much this year and last year is because you had tremendous multiple expansion and you had tremendous earnings and the earnings were

getting marked up. but now if you look at the levels, if you look at the earnings revisions, for example, they're pretty high for communication services and info tech and low for the other sectors. valuations have expanded and, you know, you had the positive momentum of the economy but, mike, the economy has been slowing down. the online advertising business is fine, but if the consumer does slow down in the second half of the year, what does that mean for some of those big tech companies? i think like the right catalysts are emerging for the catch-up trades the catalysts are going the other way around for the big tech companies. to answer your other question what does this mean for the aggregate index? i think that the aggregate index does consolidate and pause from this rally that we had and the other reason i say that, mike, when you look at what the markets do going into the first rate cut, they rally into it, but then they consolidate and pause and maybe even sell off in the three months after that first rate cut.

so i suspect we're approaching that moment of consolidation for the broader indices. >> i've been wondering and looking at that history as well. i mean, first of all it's hard to characterize what the typical or average response to the market is because the market levitated in the mid-90s and you got that one and then of course first rate cut in '01 and '08 not so great. and i do also wonder, because we basically this bull market started with the fed still tightening. i wonder if the rules are a little bit scrambled right here? >> i think that's the right way to think about the history because we can just look at the median and say this is what this means because the median includes 2001, 2007, and what you see there is the consolidation that ultimately turned into a downturn and the defensive really led the way for more than three months and on the flip side if you look at the 1995 and a lot of the nonrecessionary scenarios you had the near term consolidation but the up trend does resume

about six months after the first rate cut. so to me, sort of the playbook for the next, you know, call it into year end if we get a pullback and sum consolidation use that as a buying opportunity. by the way, there's elections coming up which probably will stoke volatility as well. if you do hit, you know, some of that downdraft in the fall, i think you'll want to buy that because ultimately i'm still in the soft landing camp and we get rate cuts, that's a pretty bullish scenario for stocks. >> if you look within the small cap indexes, no surprise in terms of the sector weights, right. it's financials, industrials, health care, especially after the russell 2000 kind of rebalanced in june, you got rid of a lot of high flying tech. is that the -- did that line up with the kinds of sectors that you think would be the place to be right now tactically? i'm sure people are saying, you know, makes a lot of sense, made a lot of sense three months ago for small caps to start to catch up and now they're up 10% in a

week. did i miss it. >> i don't think you missed it. in the last week if you haven't allocated you missed it. i don't think people have missed out on the regional banks and regional banks in particular this morning and first of all, yes, they're up tremendously up 10% in the last week or so, but just about over flat for the year. up 3% or so. they're still down 30% from the peak that we saw in early 2022. no, i don't think, you know, people have missed that trade. by the way, if the fed does cut rates, maybe not if, but when the fed cuts rates, that is a huge tailwind for regional banks. it's one of the best catch up trades that's out there. i will say, mike, i like the barbel approach, and i'm not talking about bar belling people have been doing, tech and money market, you get out of that bar bell and bar bell defensive sectors like utilities with some of these catch up trades like regionals and small caps. >> right. i guess the other question is, are we getting a little bit too certain about what the fed is going to do?

i saw maybe a 100 market implied probability by september we get a cut. anything kind of complicate that picture? we had a strong retail sales report this morning >> in a way this was one school of thought. if the fed chooses to wait until september who knows what happens between now and then and what kind of data surprises you might get. the slate is clean for them right now to actually probably cut as soon as july. i don't think they'll do that, but mike, the reason i feel fairly confident that they will cut in the next couple months is because it's not just inflation coming down, but also the labor market that's rebalanced quite a bit. the fact that we did reach 4.1% unemployment that's something to pay attention to. by the way, you're looking at the bank reports and trading is great and m&a activity is up again, but you did see credit provisions, for example, that have been set aside maybe a little bit higher than expected. i think there is a degree of slowdown in the economy that the fed has to pay attention to. >> as we bring in the panel let's hear what brian moynihan, ceo of bank of america had to

say on that point this morning on cnbc. see if we have that. >> the fed has gotten the consumer in the right place. now they have to be careful they don't go too far and disspirit the consumer where they slow down the spending and goes negative. that's the customer money moving into the economy. it's $4 trillion plus at bank of america a year so it's a big sample and you've seen it slow down. now we have to be careful we keep the balance right. >> bring in courtney garcia of payne capital management and nadia level of ubs noble wealth management. welcome to you both. courtney, hearing what moynihan had to say there, he's saying we have a soft landing likely in place, don't screw it up. how do you react to that? >> i think that is the reality here. the consumer drives the u.s. economy and they have remained strong. we saw that with the retail sales numbers that came out today and if the consumer does remain strong that is a good backdrop for the economy. but they are stretched. the higher the rates are the more that's going to affect all the interest payments and debt

servicing and it is affecting the consumer. as rates come down you're going to see that continue forward. we need to continue to see a tight labor market which we're seeing to your point. i think all of those do lead to a good backdrop we see rates come down, the soft landing scenario. they're going to be data dependent. things are lining up nicely here. >> aside from the macro, i think you are a believer in this idea the rebalance in the market that we're seeing has more life to it. >> absolutely. yeah. i think what we're not talking about is all of that cash on the sidelines you're talking about the bar bell, everyone in cash or in the magnificent seven, i think you will see all the money start to go into those other areas. you have not missed us on the rotation. you forget how quickly the change can happen. 10% small caps move in a week will happen quickly. why you need to allocate the capital there. the second the rates come down the money markets will pay less and make it ways back to the

markets. i don't think the tech trade is over. i think people are still going to continue to chase that, but it's going to make its way to the others categories. you're starting to see that this week. >> nadia, talk about the conversations around these topics you're having with your clients and what you think they should be focused on right now? >> look, we continue to focus on tech. i mean, while it remains to be seen how much leg this rotation will have, given it is a little bit more riskier trade to cyclical and also very rate dependent and economic growth dependent we'll see what happens throughout the earnings season, but we know the other day, performance has been quite narrow and concentrated. we continue to advise our clients to stay up in quality and emphasize quality, have tech as the anchor because, despite the fact that there is ai enthusiasm, the companies have been able to deliver on the earnings growth. we cannot say that for much of the rest of the market and small cap has been an earnings downgrade story.

with that said, they seem to be catching a bid and it's a bit more balanced and we would tactically look to balance out the exposure in the cyclical areas of the market. one of the areas we like is industrials because we think that does have secular components as well as the cyclical components that investors can take advantage of. >> it's a good reminder that quality, you know, in terms of balance sheet earnings, quality as a factor which has been leading all year, it really is askewed toward mega cap and toward tech to a lesser degree, so you view this i guess this rotation towards small and lower quality and more cyclical as maybe a little more unstable at this point? >> eyeyes. i think so earnings season is where the rubber meets the road. you have this trade happening, yes rate cuts can help, but it's also happening in the backdrop

of an economy that is slowing and that has implications for earnings. i think these companies have to show that they can put up the earnings growth, and i'm not sure if they will be able to do that. to us, this might not have that much duration and some of the strong rally we've seen over the last week, yes, that might be able to continue over the short-term period but the magnitude and duration will likely fade. >> anastacia, the other piece i'm just wondering if the market is growing a little bit too certain of too quickly is pricing in a specific policy mix, election outcome. obviously, that can go for a long time, you know, after the 2016 election. you would have thought it was just a trade. it wasn't just a trade. it persisted for while. financials, smaller cap cyclicals, industrials, domestic over industrial. is that something you think should be driving a strategy right now or is it just a background factor? >> the fact of the matter is you

don't know the election outcome. we can guess and that's exactly what markets are doing, but what you find out over time is markets move on probability. if you go from a 30% probability of something happening to 100% certainty, that does tend to move the market. even though some of the republican out performance trades have already started to rally, if that ultimately ends up being the you outcome i think there's more to that trade. one of the things, mike, that makes me think that maybe some of the financials and some of the regional trades have long jetb longevity, the rate cuts hopefully support the economy, but also if you do have a republican win, you potentially have financial deregulation that could also be helpful it those trade. you should have a pick up in small business confidence that historically has benefitted small caps as well. i'm not saying we should only bet on this, but if you believe the election odds now and if you

want to position for that, i think sticking with domestic trades, which are exactly the rotation trades that we're talking about, i think that might be a strategy you want to adopt. >> courtney, you mentioned that there is this big aggregate amount of cash, you know, on the sidelines, money market funds. a lot of that is institutional and not necessarily mom and pop. if you look at equity exposures among retail investors, the fed numbers, the american association of individual investors they're allocated towards stocks, not over their skis, but wonder in your experience with your clients do they feel as if they have not been fully participating in the stock market, therefore they have to kind of sweep a bunch of cash into the market? >> yeah. i think that's the question, right. i think a lot of that money is your safe money. people are using cash as opposed to bonds and where you're going, is that money going into bonds or a safe investment as opposed to the equity markets. i think to a certain extent it will. that's where we are talking to people about municipal bonds, look at the taxable yields.

they're attractive right now. it's worth going longer duration. i think the bond market is going to benefit which i don't think we've talked about. i don't think all that money is going into bonds. a lot of people are nervous here waiting for a recession, waiting for a second shoe to drop and, you know, the overall consensus is that it's a more negative tone where the markets are going. as people get more optimistic, a good chunk of that money will make its way back in the markets. yeah. i guess nadia, it's never as if we just get, you know, a consistent flow of data all telling us the same thing. i wonder what this retail sales number today said. people revising up second quarter gdp above 2% again. not that that's runway growth but that's a little stronger than we thought it was going to be. where does that leave you in terms of are we mid cycle, late cycle? that kind of conversation helpful at all to you? >> yeah. you know, we still expect economic growth to be closer to trend line for this year, so not saying -- we don't think we're

in end of cycle. we think that, you know, the fed will loosen monetary policy that could give the economy an additional shot in the arm. how you think about positioning for that, don't disagree in terms of the comments around even like a financials. we are neutral on financials but think that -- to the upside, one potential for easing on the fund whether on monetary policy or even discussions around potentially easing some of the calculations for the banks, the capital buffer, as well as the outlook for the election, we do put a higher probability on a potential for a red sweep and beneficial to deregulation and then we could potentially have a pick up in m&a. there are ways to play this part of the cycle outside of tech. like i mentioned earlier in industrials, i think there are interest and opportunities within financials. >> yeah. getting interesting along the few fronts for sure. appreciate the conversation.

anastacia and courtney and nadia. to seema moody for a look at the names moving into the close. hi, seema. >> mike, 42 minutes left in trading. united health leading the dow after posting better than expect the earnings. the health care giant up more than 6%, despite a warning that a cyberattack on its health care unit earlier this year would have an impact on full profits. the stock up about 4% so far this year. let's turn to shopify, that stock is jumping after bank of america upgraded the stock from neutral to buy. the financial firm also increasing the company's price target citing smart spending and revenue growth. the stock is up 8%. mike? >> seema, thank you. we're just getting started here. up next, money in the bank. the financials rallying to a record high today as we've been discussing. now the top sector this month as well on the back of post earnings pops and optimism the fed is getting ready to cut in september. we'll break down whether that trade still has room to run. live from the new york stock exchange.

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big bank stocks getting a boost outperforming this broad market rally after earnings beats from bank of america and morgan stanley. investors now looking ahead to regional bank results kicking off tomorrow. we'll hear from citizens, first horizon and u.s. bank corp report in the morning. joining me to discuss is david shevrini. good to talk to you. i guess what these companies are going to report and maybe a little bit of noisy results and then there's what the market seems to be positioning for, which is, i guess, happier times, less regulation, lower rates. what's your overall view of the setup here going into the regional numbers? >> yeah, you hit the nail on the head everyone is really looking forward because the rate outlook has certainly improved, the

political climate has improved with the trump white house potential, but what could be more sobering is looking the second quarter results themselves. we are expecting sluggish loan growth, under pressure, likely to bottom in the second quarter and negative credit quality metrics. there's a few things that we're still keeping an eye on in the second quarter but the outlook with potentially lower rates definitely eases and mitigates some of the headwinds. >> so where does that leave you with regard to some of the stocks that are going to report here? they've certainly had their move. a lot of it as you say on i guess less pressure on some net interest dynamics as well as maybe some relief on the real estate lending front, so in terms of names, where would you focus? >> yeah. so i'm still focused on the ones that have above average capital levels and can benefit from, you know, potentially lower interest

rates. fifth third bank, liability sensitive so they should benefit in a low rate environment and then first citizens, fcnca, they have above average capital levels. we're expecting a sizable buyback to be announced either with july earnings results or shortly thereafter. that will be a nice tailwind for them. then to the extent we get lower rates remember they acquired silicon valley bank so to the extent the vc market rebounds, they should benefit from that. then the other one we are pointing investors to is m&t bank. we are expecting them to implement their buyback plans in the second half. a couple weeks ago the stress capital buffer from the stress tests their scb improved. that would give them additional capital flexibility and they are neutral to interest rates. as we look out to next year. >> what can we read through, if anything, some of the bigger bank results on the consumer

credit trends at this point? i realize people have been waiting to see if that softens up. hasn't necessarily done it in a dramatic way. what are the clues telling us? >> yeah. normalization is still occurring, but it seems like it's still manageable. unemployment rate remains low so that enables consumers, you know, while they're employed to stay up on their credit bills. we are seeing pockets of weakness here and there, especially for some of the banks in our coverage, but overall, it looks like for the big banks, particularly, it's very much manageable risk. >> i imagine this is something that's going to be very contingent on the political, you know, setup looking out several months, but are we going to start at all to talk talk about m&a as a significant factor? >> i really think so because with, you know, deregulation and, you know, a trump white house, that should certainly help and then scale matters. what we saw a year ago, right, with the match madness with four

bank failures, i think that with additional scale, that will probably lead to a number of banks looking for m&a to achieve that scale. >> right. and is there -- i guess a regional focus you would apply? i know you like those specific names right now, but i wonder if there's an area of the country that looks like it's ripe to be consolidating more than others? >> you know, not necessarily regional focused but based on valuations, i think a bank like bank united could be potential acquisition target. win trust financial in the midwest i think they could be an acquisition target. and then the niche banks on the west coast, they could potentially benefit from some scale between east west bank and cafe bank corp. it really depends on valuation as opposed to geography. >> yeah. interesting little situations there. david, appreciate the time today. thank you. >> my pleasure. we're getting news from elon musk on spacex.

kate rodgers has that for us. >> yes, elon musk announcing in a tweet here that he will be moving the spacex headquarters from hawthorne, california, to star base, texas. he says this is in response to a law that governor newsom signed today making rules that require parent notification if a child identifies as a transgender banned in schools in california. jason tweeted about it, musk responded saying this is the final straw because of this law and many others that preceded i it, attacking families and companies, spacex will move hq from california to star base, texas. we shouldnote that spacex does already have operations in texas, and it did reincorporate from delaware to texas earlier in the year, so the entire move in and of itself is not new but the fact that they're relocating headquarters from california to texas partially in response to this law is notable. >> thank you. coming up, shopping for

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welcome back. amazon's prime day event is under way with expectations call for sales to reach a record high. cnbc technology reporter kate rooney has the latest on how it's going. kate? >> mike, amazon is on track to bring in a record $14 billion in prime day sales according to adobe. that would be up about 10.5% from a year ago. investors are watching some adjacent opportunities around prime, not just those retail sales. jpmorgan, for example, says the financial benefit extends well beyond the two-day event and watching advertising and say estimates don't capture potential incremental revenue from ads or that subscription member acquisition when it comes to prime. bank of america looking for an ad bump view prime day as a positive for amazon's brand as they continue to take market share from walmart. and then ai has been a theme around this year's event. i spoke to the vp of

transportation at amazon and told me they're using it on the back end for placing inventories and rolling out their ai chat bot. >> we just announced a general availability to all u.s. customers last week. it is a generative ai based personal shopping assistant. so you can go into our store and have a conversation with rufus, learn more about our products, ask questions about the types of things you're looking for. amazon shares up 26% this year in part thanks to a better outlook around e-commerce margins an the ai story. back over to you. >> i guess the ai personal shopping feature for people who don't think that amazon has enough sense of exactly what they want to buy next, you have to let them do it. >> they have a lot of data. >> yeah. >> she was saying they see the data based on what you've bought. if you're seeing prime day sales that seem tailored to you, no surprise. thanks, ai. >> thank you.

retail stocks rallying today after june sales came in flat but topped expectations. it's an uneven story underneath the story. adidas increasing its full-year outlook, hugo boss cuts its own. here to share her outlook, bernstein's retail senior analyst. it's great to have you. i would love to start, i guess, at a top down level with that official retail sales report this morning. pretty big upside beat and positive revises to prior months. i wonder if that changes the sense of whether the consumer is tired here or not? >> i think it's, as you said, it's a story of disaggregating the total and looking at the different pockets of consumers. the low-income consumer is fairly stable on discretionary spend. they had a lot of pain in 2022, with covid benefits and now fairly stable flat year over year. where we're seeing the most pain and the trading down is in the middle to slightly higher income consumer that is doing really

well in '22, on a wave of revenge spending, excess savings, no student loan debt, no credit card delinquencies and this revenge spending has changed and that's what we're seeing in the likes of hugo boss, but also in the u.s. the likes of coach, michael kors, lululemon, canada goose, some of the mainstream to slightly premium brands that depend on that consumer spending that's where we're seeing the pullback. >> interesting. i mean is it all -- is part of the story, you mentioned the revenge spending wave that the mix is changing from goods towards services and travel? i've seen numbers that suggest we're still working off that excess goods consumption from the pandemic years. >> yeah, in certain categories that's true. we've seen a huge pull forward of home spending, home improvement, home decor, but also big home purchases. so if you bought a trampoline for your kids in 2021 or an air

fryer or a mountain bike you're not in the market for that anymore. there was a pull forward of the big ticket items and many retailers in the sector including the home retailers as well as someone like dick's sporting goods, have seen that effect. on the more consumerbles there's less of a pull forward effect but more about the consumer looking for ways to save money if they have enough stuff, to trade down in a way. if there's nothing interesting drawing their attention they're pulling back and trading down. the winners are the off price retailers gaining share, and some of the other value retailers that have been gaining some of that trade down volume. >> yeah. we're showing tjx and ross, of course, in terms of the value retailers. i know you're recommending nike. you mentioned the sort of weakness in some athletic related or lululemon at least, and also, of course, you know, just this restructuring of the market share story for nike hasn't been that positive. what at this point do you actually like in terms of what

you see there? >> yeah. it's been a pretty terrible story but the way i look at it is, there is a big lag in when you start working on things like innovation or regaining distribution and when the numbers actually start to show up. we know that nike has been focused on this for the better part of the year. they've been hiring and investing in r&d and putting more marketing dollars behind their launches and rebuilding partnerships with retailers and we are in the trough where we haven't seen any of that impacting sales yet. and, you know, where the stock is, sentiment and the multiple are at 10-year or more than 10-year lows, the stock is uncoded. as soon as we start to see the brand momentum working and their efforts paying off, the stock is poised to rebound. i don't think this is a one-week or one month or maybe one quarter story, but i think on a longer term horizon there's some clear ups. >> yeah. obviously, the relative valuation is pretty low for nike compared to its longer term history. we were just talking about

amazon prime day. are there any echo effects there whether it be with the brands or with, you know, competitors or anything else that you've been able to pick up over the years? or is this one of those things we kind of digest in the middle of this summer and move on? >> i think there's some complating effect. this is back to school time, a human spending wave, especially something like sportswear where you're buying your kids new sneakers, sports equipment, and into the school year beginning and so it's conflated with the back-to-school event which we are going to see across the retail sector, a big -- not only a big event in itself but a big predixer of what fall demand will look like. we have big sporting events. we had the euros and the copa america and the olympics coming up, all for brands to do more marketing and product launches and there's a lot going on this month into next month including the prime day. it's all of that together that's going to drive a little bit of

an upswing in some subsectors, particularly in branded apparel and footwear and sportswear. >> of course, i mean, these stocks in general as a reflex, people start to expect a fed rate cut in the near future, they tend to start to fly a little bit. is there any tangible effect you would be looking for there if is that going to kind of dial down the pressure on some consumers at all? >> yeah, there's an impact on stocks but also the consumer. one of the factors holding back discretionary spending is the fact that credit card delinquencies are hire than in 2019 and the student loans as well for the middle income to slightly higher income consumer are putting pressure on the wallet. if there is a rate cut that impacts your credit card bill, student loan bill every month, that will help fuel some of those dollars back into discretionary spending that are being held back. i think there's a tangible effect on volume and traffic as well as an effect on stocks. >> yeah. i suppose if the rates flow

through, then home improvement might benefit as well down the road. >> right. that's more of a lag effect. exactly. >> appreciate the time. thanks so much. up next, we're tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. seema moody standing by with those. >> and mike, shares of nvidia losing steam here, down about 2%. breaking below $130 a share. one of its key suppliers reporting earnings tonight. we'll get more on the semi trade after this short break. [crowd chanting] they ignored your potential, and mocked your ambition. but it's not the critic who counts. with every swing and block,

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with an eye on taxes and risk. doors were meant to be opened. 16 minutes to the "closing bell." s&p and dow trading above the prior record closes and close to intraday record highs. back to seema moody for a look at the key stocks to watch. >> mike, we'll start with charles schwab. the stock sliding 9%, disappointing net interest margins overshadowing the brokerage's earnings beat, the stock down 10%, and turning to semiconductor stocks. cantor fitzgerald writing ai lerjd names the most attractive names to own, long nvidia,

marvel's, analysts citing a longer cyclical recovery in servers. this as we await nvidia supplier asml to report earnings tonight. that stock is trading in record high territory. up 50% so far this year, mike. >> that one will be in the middle of the night in europe. thank you very much. >> exactly. >> all right. still ahead, your earnings setup. quarterly results from interactive brokers hitting the tape in overtime. we'll bring you a run down of what to watch ahead of those numbers. as we head to a break keeping an eye on gold. it is hitting record closing high today. now up nearly 20% this year. lots of expectations of fed rate cuts, who knows about policy flux at 2471 an ounce. "closing bell" is back after this.

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it should be called wiffle tennis. pickle! yeah, aw! whoo! ♪♪ these guys are intense. we got nothing to worry about. with e*trade from morgan stanley, we're ready for whatever gets served up. dude, you gotta work on your trash talk. i'd rather work on saving for retirement. or college, since you like to get schooled. that's a pretty good burn, right? got him. good game. thanks for coming to our clinic, first one's free. . we are now in the "closing bell" market zone. diana olick is breaking down this major rally in the home builders. plus julia boorstin on activist interest in match group and kate rooney looking ahead to interactive brokers reporting after the bell. diana, it's amazing just a

couple weeks ago people thought the home builder stocks were breaking down and now they've e gone vertical. rates matter. >> it's all mortgage rates. they've been falling steadily in july and while they popped up after the sales data bond yields are down to the lows of the session with greater optimism the fed will cut rates in september. the average rate on the 30-year fixed from 7.14% to 6.84% accord to mortgage news daily, positive for the builders. we did get a lower than expected read on builder sentiment in july. the expectation for a one-point gain and we got a one-point drop with builders pointing to mortgage rates. the components of the index measuring sales expectations in the next six months rose and it was the highest level of all the other components. in addition, evercore raised its price target on pulte, kb homes and toll brothers and maintained an outperform on all of them. there you have it, mike >> the sentiment numbers as you mentioned mixed.

what's the next thing we're going to be looking for in terms of whether there's actually tangible improvement here in terms of turnover activities? >> i think you have to look at the housing starts numbers we get tomorrow morning at 8:30. they're going for june, few construction. the single family side specifically. that's going to tell you where the homebuilders are thinking when we look at building permits because that's an indicator of future construction. new home sales come out next week for june, so that will be mortgage rates based on june but if you look at the drop in rates and get commentary from the builders on their concessions and lowering prices it will give you an idea of what they're looking for in the fall. >> all right diana, thank you. julia, match shares really responding to this activist interest. >> responding indeed. match shares gaining over 7% into the close after activist starboard value disclosed a 6.6% stake in the company. starboard writing the board,

quote, must fully understand the potential value opportunity through a sale of the company and compare the alternatives on a risk adjusted basis. match responding to this saying, quote, we are relentlessly focusing on executing our key initiatives which include driving growth at tinder, continuing hinge's expansion, maintaining appropriate financial discipline and returning capital to our shareholders. now with today's gain match shares are down 27% over last year. starboard joins another activist elliott management which amassed a billion dollar stake in match and then getting two board seats on match's board in march. match says it will continue an open dialog with its investors including starboard and we have to see what happens here. back to you. >> it's interesting you mentioned how weak the stock had been before the starboard news. the other companies in the group have not fared better.

bumble had a struggle. seems like it might be a sector-wide issue. is there any sense of what specific recommendations the outside investors might have aside from selling the company? >> yeah. i mean look, this does seem like a very much a sector-wide issue. we saw the dating apps try to pivot and raise more digital dating during the pandemic but now we're seeing fully post pandemic younger users who previously would have gone on the dating apps are enjoying meeting up in person and spending their money going to live events and doing things in person instead of spending time on these dating apps. this is something that we've seen weigh on bumble shares as well. i think it is notable they're pointing out the potential opportunity in selling here because, you know, remember match, you know, has been stand-alone company for some time so that would be a reversal to think about selling. >> absolutely would. thank you, julia. kate, interactive brokers one of the stronger stocks in the

group. >> yeah. pike, it's going to give itself a pulse in the retail investors. daily active revenue trades one area to watch. trading volume tends to paint that picture. account growth is going to be key. net interest income, especially of interest after schwab's results this morning. that brokerage firm's second quarter profit was down, had to pay more interest on deposits and higher rate and weak second half. the stock has been down 9% today. bank deposit outflows. piper sandler lowering its price target on schwab saying the ceo's call to reduce the size of the bank leaves them incre bhentsly less confident in the upside of income driven earnings recovery story. for more on the brokerage space don't miss the chairman coming up next hour on overtime. >> it's interesting, for a long time, investors sort of preferred schwab as this financial supermarket. it was more stable because it was a quasi bank. now that's the problem and

interactive brokers and robinhood are more of the pure play on sort of the retail animal spirits, the options trading boom and things like that. i guess i wonder how high expectations are for interactive going into this? >> that's a great point on the bank. when rates were going up it was seem as a plus to be looped in with the financials and have a bank and now it's working the other direction. the ceo saying that they're going to become leaner and smaller and rely on partners which is the interactive model. the expectations in terms of trading volume, supposed to see a little bit of a recovery, i think that is very different models so the read through for interactive when you look at schwab is more on interest income. a lot more index even if you compare it to robinhood to things like options to derivatives and it's a little bit more of a sophisticated retail trader versus robinhood which tends to cater to the younger first-time millennial traders. >> exactly. interactive brokers, hedge fund clients. thank you very much. as we head into the close it really is a stampede higher.

acceleration in the big rotation move we've seen for the last week. the russell 2000 up 3.5%. the s&p 500 on pace for a record close up 60 basis points. yes, we have a three to one advance to declining. 400 new highs against only six new 52-week lows. that does it for "closing bell." overtime with jon fortt. >> that bell marks the end of regulation. pioneer bank corp doing the honors at the nasdaq and the dow zooming to another record close s&p 500 joining the party with a record of its own, small caps, they are the bells of the ball today. another boost. that is the scorecard on wall street. winners stay late. welcome to "closing bell: overtime." i'm jon fortt. morgan brennan is off today. we're just moments away from earnings results from interactive brokers and jb hunt giving read on financial services and transports and we'll bring you those results as