investors have as we try to justify the valuations. >> yeah, a.i. questions abound, how much people are going to be buying of nvidia, and besides nvidia, for sure. seema mody, thank you, looking forward to all of that tomorrow and beyond. meantime, that's going to do it for "overtime." "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." the s&p hits the 38th record close of the year. here's what's on tap for tonight. the great rotation. investors have been rushing into trades that have lagged this year. what that means for the rest of the market and the names that have been red hot. china descending. a flagging consumer, questions over trade. there's a lot at stake. how it will play out for the markets and their economy. later on, insuring gains in unh. airlines about to take off. and an industrial construct hg major gains.

i'm carl didn't nia, live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight, steve grasso, karen finerman, guy adami, and katie stockton. guys, what a day to fill in. >> yeah, and carl. >> hall of famer. he's in the hall of fame. like in golf, you can make the hall of fame while you're still playing. that's carl. >> let's begin with the dow today, surging to that fresh record high. industrials far outpacing the major averages, up 742 points. biggest gain since november '22. s&p notches a record close. nasdaq with a small gain. but beating all of those, small caps, russell 2,000, 3.5%, highest level since january '22. over the last week, it's outrun the s&p by ten points. and then check out the sectors. industrials up 2.5. materials, discretionary closely behind. micron, crowdstrike, nvidia, along the laggards, each down about 2%.

as for market broadening, check out the equal weight s&p. it does continue its outperformance, up almost 5% in a week. is today's action confirmation of a shift in the market narrative, guy? >> it's clearly a shift. and again, great to have you. i'll say this, if you had told me that nvidia wouldn't participate, these big broad, large cap tech stocks really not participating the last couple days, where's the s&p, probably significantly lower. here we are. so, that is a great sign. and we're lucky to have katie here. because the last time she was on, she thought that consolidation in the russell would sort of resolve itself to the upside. and that's what's happening before our very eyes. with that said, a lot of gain of salt here. a large part of the iwm is small and regional banks. i don't think they're out of the woods. 235, i think, was the prior high in the fall of 2021. that's where we headed. it's a question of what happens when and if we get there. >> yeah, i mean, it with us a major breakout for iiwm and anything related to it.

equal rated rsp is one example. these triangle breakouts send to be very high probability setups, and see immediate upside follow through. indeed, we've already had that to some degree, but i think it's still actionable. i think the word yesterday was durability of the rally. and that's still in question, i would say. the long-term setup the favorable, but the triangle itself really only has implications over the short to intermediate term. we'll have to see if it manifests over the long-term. >> so, i've been waiting for the iwm for a long, long time. and -- versus my cost basis, this is nice, the last five days, but it's been sort of an eh trade. no, it's interesting to see just the stampede, you know, out of mag seven, into this, but we are going to start to see someof those earnings that the mag seven trade is really sort of pegged to. microsoft next week, meta, i mean, all the, you know, really big ones, and we'll see, is that story still alive? and i don't know if that will

cause the flow to go back the other way, or just, we're going to see more money in the market. we obviously have this sort of -- we have a couple of things, obviously powell being more dovish, and then the expectation of the trump presidency rising in the likelihood of that being friendly to markets. so, all those things sort of converging. the last five days in the iwm versus the qs is -- i don't think i've seen an index trade convergence that strong in that short of a time. >> it is remarkable, just the magnitude of the move and how spread out it is. that's meaningful. it shows breadth expansion, but even more importantly, it shows expanding leadership. and that's what this market did not have. it didn't have broad leadership. now, we have more choices. a lot of nice-looking charts. >> i do wonder how much of that is the catalyst was short covering. everything that everyone said is correct, but how much of it was short covering, because the

market was so lopsided with those top seven names. so, how much of this is a blip, right? we're talking about this. how much of it was short covering? how much of it is rates? how much of it is deregulation? and the answer is, it's all of the above, it's just a matter of, what's the longevity of it before money starts coming back in to those top tier names versus a lot of these names that, 45% of the russell 2,000 is unprofitable companies. they need lower rates to survive. so, what -- what's real, what's fake? >> what's interesting to me, carl, quickly, a lot of people throwing this around, and i've been talking about it, we say this all the time. jim talks about this, metrics like pe multiples and those types -- it's not a timing mechanism by any stretch of the imagination. it matters, but what i said last night, the margin for error, with the buffett indicator at levels we've never seen before, is concerning.

right now, nobody seems to care, but they should be watching it. >> to karen's point, do you think it needs to be zero sum, if microsoft were to miss or blow out, does it -- does it mean that -- it can only be tech or small caps? >> no, i don't think so. i think you can have participation from tech, but maybe not the leadership that we've gotten accustomed to. so, we have perhaps nvidia advancing from its consolidation phase, microsoft has a great long-term setup, you had a breakout in amazon, so, we still have very good prospects from that segment of the market, from a technical perspective, but when you look at the ratios, you look at the ratios, they look very extended and are now starting to pull back. i look at the momentum etf today, on that ratio, it looks pretty toppy, actually. it looks like it's an out of favor situation, but they can still perform in absolute terms. >> and the s&p, carl, to the point of your question, 34% of the s&p is technology.

so, for a large part, as katie said, when you have the russell outperforming, the breadth expand, all of those sectors have to work to -- to match up the one in tech. so, if one starts to fall off, they all sort of domino off, but as karen said, she's been waiting for years, the dislocation between iwm and the nasdaq has been going on, if you look at that chart, that chart is abysmal for iwm names. >> until -- i mean, really, until this week. >> yeah. >> you know, looking at it over the last six months and then this week. >> well, i was going to say, five days ago, russell year to day gain was 1%, today it's 12%. that's crazy. >> that's enormous. >> but for context, it's interesting, all those numbers are right, but i think the aggregate sum of the iwm in market cap is a little over $3 trillion, and we know what that $3 trillion. those are three different stocks we talk about all the time. so, there's an importance to it, but when you look at it compared

to nvidia, microsoft, and apple, it's just one of those three. the last time katie was here, as well, she mentioned the setup she was seeing in the vix, and we'll see what that augers for, or towards, but you know, she thought the vix could start to move on the upside and that's something you have to watch, as well. >> this is one little footnote on this, this is the most overbought on an rsi basis to kick it back to you, on the russell, as it's been since 2017. just reiterate that, like, absorb that stat. >> we don't actually see that as a negative. we see that as a byproduct of a strong breakout and momentum. it would be unusual to see a breakout without that kind of reading, so, it is notable, in that it's different, but we think it's still bullish. we don't have any countertrend indications yet. regardless of what is driving this move, short covering or otherwise. and the vix comment for guy, i do think that this is probably the start of a more highly volatile type of environment,

but that's not necessarily bearish, it just means we'll see more pull-back, more individual stock volatility, and in a way, an opportunity for active managers to outperform. >> we mentioned industrials at the top. xli, i think today, best day in a year. is this telling us anything about the macro? people were not impressed with delta a few days ago, and jb hunt's down aftermarket. >> for the first time in a long time, i'm getting questions about areas of the market that are not technology, right? so, the infrastructure etf, home builders, areas like industrials that have really pulled back in relative terms, and now seem to be providing opportunity. i could even say financials, i'm getting more questions about, because we have breakouts there, and financials and health care taken together actually make about the same footprint as technology in the s&p 500, so, they're very key. >> interesting, throw up and xli chart or caterpillar chart, they are 5% of the xli, i think ge is the number one holding. that stock reports, i believe, next week. don't at me if i'm wrong.

big selloff, but it's making moves towards that's prior all-time highs, so, there are a lot of stocks that are proving themselves, but they're going to get towards levels where they are really going to have to start to prove you and caterpillar is one of them. >> katie mentioned financials, and the monster move in the banks has been interesting to watch. regionals jump another 4.5%, bringing their gains over the last week to nearly 15%. kre's on a seven-day win. longest since march of '22, and the big banks also rallying, up 13% in a week. b of a among the big winners today. the stock surges more than 5% on the better than expected numbers and upbeat guidance. stock's at two-year highs. all-time highs for goldman and jpm. and the bank rally might be in its early innings. gerard cassidy is with us, great to have you. what do you think is driving some of this price action? at least the past couple of days?

>> thank you for having me on the show, carl. i think one of the biggest drivers here is the expectation that the federal reserve -- its next move will be to cut short-term interest rates. the fed funds rate. we saw it today with bank america. they were talking about the second quarter is likely to be the low point for their net interest income. pnc, which is a big regional, reported today, they showed the inflection in net interest income this quarter. as you know, anywhere from 55% to 65% of most banks revenue comes from net interest income. so, that i think that is the big driver, and the expectation that is fed is going to cut rates over the next 6 to 12 months. >> gerard, it's karen. thanks for being on today. do you want to be positioned to have more of a bet into a rebounding nii, or to loan growth, or better -- where do you think the sort of juice is, the next part of the move, that -- it's been an incredible move when you think about how much higher they were before

earnings started, which usually makes for a very tough bar and yet now they're even higher still. so, where is the next sort of leg up? >> no, it's a very good point, karen, and i would say that the next leg up is going to be on more -- i think the regional banks, which have lagged the universal and money center banks. when you think back over the last 12 months, the largest cap banks have actually had the best moves relative to the regionals. but if it is true that the fed does cut rates, and you start to see the funding costs for these banks fall, while at the same time, the yields on their earning assets should increase, because the cash flows are coming off of lower coupon assets being invested in higher coupon assets. for example, pnc did a restructuring of the bond portfolio, they sold off coupons of about 1% and 1.5%, and reinvested it north of 5%. that's a huge pickup.

>> gerard, loan loss provisions have been kicking up across the board, number one. number two, for bank of america, which i didn't think was a great quarter, but okay, i get it. right now, they are trading at 1.7 times book. now, i get it, they're probably a better bank than citi in terms of that metric, but they're probably getting a little long in the tooth, historically as to where it is trading now. what are your thoughts there? >> it's interesting, guy. if you go back to the high water mark, post-financial crisis on valuations, its year-end 2017, early 2018. and that's where the banks, as a group, traded at 1.6 times book. now, not all the banks traded there, of course, citi didn't trade there. even bank of america didn't trade there. but i still think there's upside. and to your point, when you start to see the bond portfolios mature, we have to remember that the book values and tangible book values are depressed, because they have to take out the unrealized bond losses from

those calculations. so, the growth in book value and tangible book value for bank america and others will be much faster than earnings growth over the next 12 months, which tells you that even if they maintain the valuation, let alone see it expand, the stocks should still move higher. >> gerard, i'm a firm believer that jpmorgan always got the jamie dimon premium. so, you can -- you can push back on that if you'd like, but now when you're coming towards the end of his career, or, the final innings of his career, does that premium get pulled out? because jpmorgan has underperformed, not by a large margin, but it's definitely underperforming. is this premium coming out? >> steve, you make a great point. there is definitely a jamie dimon premium. i don't disagree with you. i think the relative underperformance over the recent term has more to do with the risk-on versus the risk-off

strategy. if you really believe we are in a soft landing, fed's going to cut rates, to guy's point, about the provisions for loan losses. they start to stabilize or even may go down next year. then you want risk-on bank stocks rather than the risk-off name like jm morgejpmorgan. you lay that out with the premium, which i agree with, he definitely contributes to the stock. and the day he retires, the stock is going to trade down. he's got a very deep bench, highly qualified people, but it's tough to replace him. obviously he's one of a kind ceo and has done a great job for jpmorgan. >> gerard, look forward to having you back, as we work our way through the regionals in light of what b of a did say today about things like commercial real estate. thanks. >> you're welcome. >> you satisfied with that answer of jpm? >> yeah, he way agrees with me, so -- i am satisfied with it, and i think that jamie's smart enough to sort of back load.

i think -- i think when you s see -- when things are going to come around to when he has his final day, it's not going to come down with a hammer. there's going to be a front -- a back loading of a bunch of headlines -- >> like a fed cut. >> exactly. that are positive for the name. >> so, jpmorgan is my biggest bank holding, i love jamie dimon. i'm sad that one day he will not be the ceo but they're really laying the groundwork. he's finally said, okay, within five years. and likely he will be the chairman of the board for some amount of time, and, you know, it was interesting on that call, i don't know if it was investor day or the last call, he said within five years, i will not. so, the stock was down probably about ten bucks, just on that statement alone, which is what little more than 5%. i sort of think of that as half the jamie premium. the other half is when he actually says, beginning x date -- >> right. >> i won't be the ceo. >> right. we'll see. it's going to be -- we made a joke on that day, could be one,

could be five, we just don't know. >> exactly. when we come back, healthy gains for unh. reporting better than expect results before the bell today. is there more room to run for the stock and the group? schaub shares did tumble after they reported unconvincing q-2 results. is that a tell? more "fast money" after this. you're watching "fast money" here on cnbc. we'll be right back. and all i can think about is all the green i'm spending on 3 kids in college. with empower, i get all of my financial questions answered. so i don't have to worry. empower. what's next. icy hot. ice works fast. ♪♪ heat makes it last. feel the power of contrast therapy. ♪♪ so you can rise from pain. icy hot.

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and right now, get up to $800 off the new galaxy z flip6 and z fold6 when you trade in your current phone. get the fastest connection to paris with xfinity. welcome back to "fast money." united health posted some healthy results this morning. shares surging 6.5%, to their highest close of the year. that after the insurance company beat earnings and revenue estimates for the latest quarter. the ceo did cite cost cuts helped in part by a.i., but the company noted that the cyber attack from earlier would cost more than previously expected. are we convinced that we've got a lid on these numbers for the year? >> i don't think we can be convinced of anything. you know, unh is one of these names that -- i've been long, i'm not currently long, but when you look at the chart, it's given you a bunch of fakeouts. within the last year, you've had a death cross, a golden cross, so, katie can speak to that, but

when you luke at the ftc problems they have with their pharmacy benefit management side, that was what was growing, they're sort of in the line of sight for congress, but i think with the trump presidency, maybe that's seen as mitigating it a little bit? >> yeah, what you're describing is a trading range for now more than two years or so, so -- until it lifts out of that range, a short-term breakout is good, but resistance for unh is around $558, so, unless it can meaningfully clear that, the range, you have to assume, is still dominant. >> two years of sideways action, to steve and katie's point, without question. and i'm not saying it deserves a market multiple, but it's a -- you know, it's traded cheaper than it is now. i got to 13 times forward earnings. even with a 17 1/2 times now, i think this should trade at a higher multiple. and i think it sets up to break out through the prior highs. unh is best in class. i know the whole space has problems. but this is the name to own in that space. >> we talked this morning with

jim about sectors that would benefit from a change banks and health care? >> i don't know that health care necessarily, because i feel like the rhetoric of, we're going to try to keep drug prices low is sort of a -- >> universal. >> exactly. so, i think we could see both candidates really pushing on that, so -- i'm not sure that i buy that, but i think though unh, there was a little bit to like and a little bit to not like here, and i think part of this, half of this movement today was just the party, just, you know, being part of the broad party of the market. >> there's also the string of hacks, right? disney and some of their slack material, at&t the other day, we've been living with this one for awhile. the effect on names like snow last week, steve. >> and they stated that, too. they know that that -- dealing with the cyber attack is going to make a huge sucking noise of money coming out of the company, but it -- it matters what the market wants to pay attention to

that day. so, you brought up the point of, this is -- this is a sector that should, in theory, be helped with a trump administration. and i think the market is focused on that and focused on that pbm income or revenue, was actually outperformed. so, if you see lower headwind from the ftc, higher revenues, higher revenues with trump and less regulation, i think that makes for a bullish day. >> look at signer. cyber is still in play. google's trying to make a deal. palo alto, volatile stock, expensive. another best in breed. i think you want -- as difficult as it is in times, like a zscaler, palo alto, you have to be in one of those names. there's a lot more "fast money" coming up. here's what's ninth. bad news for a brokerage and industrial gains for one equipment company. the headlines sending two popular names in opposite directions today. why investors are running to and from these shares.

plus, do recent warnings from luxury retailers signal real weakness in china? and how could the presidential election shake up relations with the u.s.? we dive into what's next for the emerging market heavyweight. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real.

welcome back to "fast money." shares of united rentals topping the tape today, and over the last week. shares of the equipment leasing company up five days in a row, adding nearly 18% in that period. uri closed today at a record, and karen, you pointed out that the move comes on literally no news. >> nothing. seemingly nothing. which -- i like uri, owned it for a long time, i think the ceo is great. they're in a nice spot. but -- nothing has really happened. maybe it shouldn't have been where it was. you know, it's traded around the range, they've done an extraordinary job with their business. but this is something completely unrelated, and so at thor have end of the day, i had to sell some 760 calls against my position, because -- first of all, they were 25 bucks, so, you know, that would be selling some stock at -- it was 627 last

tuesday. so, this move is great, it's fun, but something that goes up like this could also sort of go down like this. the other thing is, it's not levered. it's not like this is a crazy levered story and it's working. they're not particularly levered. i'm happy, but i got to taper that with a little -- >> all right. yeah, we'll see if we get some commentary out of caterpillar about that space. meantime, got some breaking news former president trump giving an extensive interview with bloomberg, where he talks about jerome powell. let's get to megan casella with that. >> we are just digesting this interview that took place in late june. so, just a couple of weeks ago. a wide-ranging interview on business and the global economy. i'm going to run through a few of the highlights. on the federal reserve, he said he will allow jerome powell to

finish out his term, which would run through january 2028. that is, of course, a reversal from previous stays from president donald trump. he's saying now, i would let him serve it out. especially if i thought he was doing the right thing. he does say that he's warning the federal reserve now to abstain from cutting rates before the election. that's different from what the markets are expecting. but trump says that that would -- that would be something the fed knows they shouldn't be doing. on taxes, he says he wants to bring the corporate rate to as low as 15% from that current 21% level. he told a group of executives recently he wanted to push it to 20%, but nowhe's saying 15%. he says he would consider jamie dimon, jpmorgan ceo, to be his treasury secretary. on tech, he says he no longer plans to ban tiktok. he says he's for tiktok now, because you need competition, and he's not thrilled with mark s.e.c.er berg, he wants competition for facebook and

instagram. just a couple more here, on crypto, it wasn't long ago, bloomberg notes, that trump said bitcoin was a scam, and a disaster waiting to happen. now he says that it and other crypto-currencies should be, quote, made in the usa. if the u.s. wasn't on it, china or somebody else would be. quote, china is going to figure it out and china is going to have it or somebody else. and just one last one here, carl, that i want to flag, on geopolitics, he was asked about taiwan, and bloomberg says that at best, trump was about lukewarm on the idea of defending taiwan and standing up to china's aggression. partly because of what bloomberg called economic resentment that trump was saying, quote, taiwan took our chip business from us, i mean, how stupid are we. they took all of our chip business. so, he's lukewarm on that, and he was sort of asking why we would be defending taiwan. so, carl, there is a whole lot here. we are still going through it. i'll toss it back over to you. >> all right, that is important information, megan, i'm sure

market will talk a lot about it tonight and tomorrow. megan, thank you. let's take powell just to start, guy. i'm thinking back to 2019, where he accused jay powell of na naivety, said there were boneheads on the federal reserve. >> i'm surprised at that. my sense is that what he'll say and behind closed doors he'll try to show him the exit. and again, if i heard that right, and i was trying to listen, did megan say they thought the fed should not lower rates prior to -- that is correct. sandy is in my caear. that's interesting. the federal reserve should be data dependent. if the data suggests they should be lowering rates, they're not a political entity, though i understand why he would say those things. the taiwan thing is the one that stands out to me the most. i'll let others talk about that, but you talk about an existential risk to the market. it's china doing something with taiwan. whether it's an invasion or a blockade or something, and if we have a stance where, you know, they're going to be left to their own devices, i think that's problematic for the

market. >> karen, thoughts? >> very much agree on that. jamie dimon, no way would he will treasury secretary. i don't have any unique particular insight, but i just absolutely cannot see that happening. >> right. >> can you make bitcoin in the usa? can you contain bitcoin -- >> he has been bullish on miners, so, that's what -- so, he -- you know, the beauty -- the people that like trump is that he's a moving target, right? you can't box him up. he changes his mind on stuff. and when you think about it, isn't it game theory when you talk about taiwan? why would he say that i would be aggressive towards that invasion, because then it would incentivize china to invade now, knowing if he's coming down the pike -- maybe he's doing this -- it's sort of -- three dimensional chess, because a lot of different things. you're not going to say what you're going to do. i think that the fed is always late. historically, the fed usually cuts rates eight months after their last hike. by that, they should have been cutting in march, so you i think

the fed is late, and i think they're always late on the back end, as well. so, i think they're going to be late to cut, they -- they're going to be late to cut and then you're going to see the markets sort of cascade. i've been in the camp of three cuts this year, and i think it -- they are a political organization whether we think they are or not, but i think they're going to cut in september, november, and december, i think there's going to be three cuts. >> a little more than the street. we'll see what we get, as the market continues to reprice. we'll get more on those headlines and get them to you. coming up, a closer look at some of the recent weakness in china. could policy change be on the horizon? we'll sit down with a top expert for a closer look at what's next for the world's second-largest economy. plus, is the airline trade cleared for takeoff? we'll see if the technicals do point to a turnaround, right after this. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.

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welcome back. more headlines from this bloomberg business week interview, where president trump says he would look to impose tariffs between 60% and 100% on china, and would impose a 10% tariff on other countries. let's get more on u.s./china relations and this new news that former president trump would put those tariffs on that country. for that, we'll bring in john rutledge, a cnbc contributor. john, good to see you again. >> good to see you, carl. >> have you looked at some of these headlines? john, have you been able to read some of what trump has told -- >> no, i have, i have, and, of course, that's coming on top of miserable growth numbers from china, so, not very welcome. and xi jinping is in a meeting with his 370 best friends today, at the plenum, no, not good news. >> give us your sense of what you think their options are, after the last few days, their ppi numbers, their retail sales numbers, the pressure that their

consumer is under, given what's happened with property prices, and stock market prices. >> yeah, you know, the big -- the big number is minus 5% growth in home prices. and it's the debt from property and from the municipal lending that's causing the big growth drag in china, and, of course, long covid overhang, as well. i think tariffs on top of that, we've already got tariffs on evs coming in from us and the eu. and if you put mr. trump's 100% numbers on top of that, then china is not going to grow at all next year. >> one of the quotes from this piece, from the former president, i can't believe how many people are negative on tariffs that are actually smart. man, is it good for negotiation. is that something you think the market could eventually get its arms around? >> well, the truth is, the market -- and even the economic profession, have turned a lot less free trade and a lot more

pro industrial policy in the last couple of years. i don't think the market is going to like the 100% tariffs coming on, but i do think that the growth right now is quite strong in the u.s. we've got the fed that's about ready to turn the corner and start to bring the rates down, dh will make growth stronger yet. we've got a troubled property market, too, but trump coming in probably means more stimulus, more pressure on the fed to -- to print, and grow. but the property problems are really at the heart of china's issues, and are not going to go away, no matter what china does. >> john, when trump was in office the first time around, he -- we went through the tartariff s exercise and it served him well. he's putting his foot on the gas dramatically. but when the biden administration came in, they kept most, if not all of those tariffs, you can correct me if i'm wrong there, and they actually put a whole bunch more

on, or, increased them a couple of months ago. so, i think this is him just sort of separating himself, trying to be a little more aggressive there. but the real question i have for you is where we picked up on taiwan. i am a firm believer, when a country is weak, they act strong and vice versa. do you think that china is so weak that it adds to the odds of them invading taiwan? >> i think they're so weak economically, but also remember, they've had major corruption scandals and removed two senior ministers in the last year. they're not in a position to be able to trust their own military to be able to execute. so, i think -- i think the taiwan risk is always real, but i have to say, in my personal portfolio, tsm plays a big part. i don't think that's really -- that's really going to happen. it is true, however, that china has been the big winner in the ukraine/russia war. all of the rest of the parts of the world, china, u.s. -- excuse

me, u.s., eu, ukraine, and russia, have all depleted our weapons inventories and china has not. so, china's relatively in a much stronger position now than they were two years ago. >> john, it's karen. thanks for being on. so, let's say trump, somewhere in the middle, 80% tariff. if you were china, in their shoes, what would your retaliation be for an 80% tariff, if there were a trump administration? >> well, that's the first time, karen, i've heard anyone say 80% tariffs are in the middle. so, congratulations on that. but they will look for a way to retaliate. the only way they've really got to do it is tariffs and also with the currency, but truth is, they've already played the rmb for as much as they can get out of it. most russian transactions are rmb now, and they're reducing their treasury bill holdings already by a trillion dollars in

recent years. there's not too much more they can do there. i don't think they have a lot more bullets, other than drive a lot more battleships around taiwan to make a lot more noise with it, but they don't have any sharp, economic policies to be able to pull the trigger on here. >> we'll see what kind of comments we get out of taiwan and certainly will be a talk regarding tsm tomorrow. john, good to check in with you. thank you for coming on. >> nice to see you, carl. we have another news alert this time, again, from megan on some potential changes to the supreme court. megan? >> carl, it's a busy evening. "the washington post" is reporting that president bide is finalizing plans to endorse major changes to the supreme court in the coming weeks. they say these would be proposals for legislation to establish term limits on justices who currently have life long-terms, and also to establish an enforcement ethics code. now they say, this is according to two people left on the plans, but that president biden previewed these plans on a call over this past weekend with the

congressional progressive caucus. this would be a major change for president biden, who has long resisted this type of changes to the court, but it would be a big win for progressives. and i will note that this is coming as progressives have emerged as some of the staunchest supporters of president biden over the past few weeks, as others in his party have been calling on him to step aside. again, that's "the washington post" reporting that biden is finalizing plans to endorse major changes to the supreme court, including establishing term limits in the coming weeks that would be subject, at least most of it to congressional approval. that's the news as we have it. carl? >> dealing with some big issues. megan, thank you. still to come tonight, delta airlines shares taking flight today. is the airline trade cleared for takeoff? plus, auto inventories hitting a four-year high. why that might be the summer of major incentives at dealerships, when "fast money" is back in two.

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welcome back to "fast money." airline stocks have seen some vastly different trajectories this year. while delta and united shares have gained about 15% in '24,

american's down nearly 20%. where do the names go from here? let's get to the charts with katie stockton. first of all, what do you think is going on? >> american airlines, it's a long-term underperformer. it's come down to its 2020 lows. but at a time when the market's rewarding these oversold setups. i feel like they're worth a look. delta had an earnings driven gap down, now it is holding the rising 200-day moving average. that's very compelling. american airlines came right down to that long-term support. both of these stocks have very high conviction counter trend signals based on the mark indicators, and that's why they were flagged to us. so, we have technical catalysts to suggest support levels will hold. it comes at a time when the market's rewarding these relatively oversold stocks, and you highlighted the industrial sector, right? it's part of that. and seems ready to take advantage of that trade. >> did we get a look at the airline index overall?

>> the broader index has corrected, of course, it is equally oversold in relative terms, so, i like playing it via individual stocks, because that's a little higher beta, but very interesting trade. >> who owns delta? >> tim does. >> all the time. that's been, if you pull up a chart, you'll see, it's been in this wide range, but a very specific range over the last couple years. after 46, you are sort of smack in the middle. this one that might be interesting, bearish to bullish reversal that's been horrible for a long time is jet blue, which is finally starting to show some signs of life. i think they report at the end of the month. so, that's one where you might catch some people offguard in a couple weeks. >> holding support at its 200-day moving average, as well. i think we want our portfolios not only to have long -term upt uptrends. >> we went into the summer travel season thinking, oh, boeing is not making enough planes, there's not going to be enough capacity, now delta's

like, we do have too much capacity. >> that has been the story of the airlines, however there have been airlines in a real commercial sense. and it's happening again, which makes me wonder, maybe boeing doesn't need to be in such a hurry. fix the problem. you know, as you said, they're going to be taking capacity out. >> right. >> and you alwso want those premium seats. and that's where the margins are. that's where a delta or a united, you talk about international travel or the front of the cabin, how much you can charge for it. but i agree with guy. when you look at a jetblue, which has had some m&a, then not so m&a on the table, and you start to see that stock bounce, that could be the reason for that. but that's obviously more domestic versus your international. >> and we'll see if things get more permissive, if we get a change in washington, regarding airline m&a. when we come back, auto inventories are at their highest level in about four years, but will the glut lead to any relief on some of the high car payments? we're going to kk icthe tires on that trade in a minute.

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$6,200. that's going to certainly add onto your loan, and if you were trading in an ev, as you look at the ev market share, those

people, they are paying a lot. they are upside down by more than $10,000 on average, according to edmunds. ev sales continue to grow, up 25% in the second quarter, compared to the first quarter. and this is still tesla's market, selling more than half of the vehicles so far this year, in the u.s., electric vehicles. don't forget, we get tesla's q-2 financials next week, carl, and it's not just going to be the evs people are focused on. it's energy storage, which has just exploded in the last couple of quarters. that's going to be a big part, as well, for tesla. >> to the point where some conversations aren't even mentioning the auto business lately. phil, thank you. >> yeah. >> let's trade some of that. steve, brings to mind the price action in gm and ford last couple days. >> yeah, so, when you look at the price action, when you look at the year to date performance, ford has been outperformed by gm by 2 to 1, basically. maybe more. tesla is back from the dead, they paddled them and, you see the stock's performance.

rivian is up 105% in the last three months and still down 25% for the year. so, it's -- to phil's point, tesla is still the 800-pound gorilla in the room when it comes to evs. if you believe in full self-drive, robo-taxi, the energy storage -- energy storage is -- the growth rate on that is exponential. that's what you're going to hear about going forward. >> the spring of last year, carvana was a $9 stock going out of usiness. it's $145 stock now. and seemingly everybody loves it. but if there is a glut of inventory out there, you have to start to wonder how they're going to perform in this environment. i think they report in a couple of weeks. that's one that, if you are initiating long positions here, i think you're trading it wrong. >> thoughts on autos, are you in? >> i am not. did a poor job with gm, which is still amazingly cheap. shockingly cheap, actually. but i'm not. carvana, they do have a lot of debt, so, rates going lower will help them. >> yes.

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time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. steve? >> i got inspired by unh, so, i went with moh. >> karen? >> yeah, match group. i sort of thought that 13b was interesting, and they paid around here for their stock. >> katie? >> you know, i like small and mid-cap growth, and one way to express it is the cloud computing etf, clou. >> and guy? >> we do -- you know, you think we just say it, but we don't. we love having you here. >> that's nice to hear. it's a fun show. >> not batgirl on the batman and

robin, doesn't show up all the time, but when she did -- that's carl. he's in mount rush more. >> who was cat woman? >> ertha kitt. m,.that's a great pull by me ae carl. >> guys, good to see my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer and welcome to "mad money" and i'm just trying to make you little money and my job not just to entertain but to put the crazy market into context. call me or tweet me. when you get these kind of rallies, and you get them very rarely, it reminds