>> bryn? >> powell. >> joe? >> arch capital. >> jim? >> cisco systems, higher highs and higher lows shows the down trend is over. >> that does it for us. "the exchange" starts right now. ♪ ♪ >> thank you very much, melissa. welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead. the market needed a catalyst to break that growth momentum, and our market guest says it got two. he tells us what they are and how he's taking advantage of the value trend if he expects to continue. several trades are under pressure as candidates unveil their policy proposals, especially the chips. we'll get to that in a moment. there is one trade that should work regardless of who welcomes president. that analyst joins with us the theme and the stocks to own. plus, three more names on

deck to report. gina sanchez is fading the consumer and buying the fed. let's start with the markets. and dom chu has the numbers. turning lower. >> it's a tale of two different markets to continue that two themes that you just mentioned. the dow industrials are currently up, marketedly so, about half of 1%. 41,189. meanwhile, the market cap weighted indices, they're taking it on the chin and in a big way. the s&p 500 is now below the 5600 mark, 5595, down about 1 points, a 1.25% drop. the nasdaq is down 489 points, that's worse than 2.5% in terms to have drop. 18,019 is the last trade there. and at this current level, we could be on pace for the worst day of 2024 for that tech heavier nasdaq composite.

it's certainly something to watch. with the broadening without trade, we are still seeing weakness, but relative strength on a dailye necessary that russell 2,000 index. it's been an underperformer so far this year. it's the blue line versus the s&p and nasdaq 100. but that small-cap trade has broken out in a big way. whether it has momentum or not remains to be seen. look at that versus the moves that we have seen similarly from the large-cap side of things. small cap is a very big story for traders in the market. the reason why we are seeing that tech weakness today has a lot to do with the global chip complex. semiconductors lower on the day, led by asml holdings. the european equipment maker for chips, as the biden administration is looking for more export controls on some of those chaip making companies. these names falling down 7%, 8%.

even nvidia is down over 6%. keep an eye on chips, very big move. back over to you. >> thank you very much. for more, let's aturn to aemon with former president trump's comments and how the biden administration is responding. >> reporter: that's right. you heard dom talk about the biden administration potentially tightening up export controls around chips to china. that's one thing weighing on the market this morning. the other is that interview that former president donald trump did with bloomberg business week, which dropped yesterday. that's still moving markets today. particularly the former president's comments about taiwan and whether or not the united states would come to the rescue of taiwan if china invaded. here's the comment that has everybody focused right now.

>> so trump there very skeptical of u.s. policy toward taiwan, which has always been strategically vague on purpose. whether or not the u.s. military would come to the less cow of taiwan in a china invasion scenario has been strategically left vague by the united states for decades now. donald trump calling into question the idea that the united states would spend money, resources, blood, and treasure defending that country, particularly in the light of the trade imbalance there in terms of chips that he sees. that is classic donald trump. it's an isolationist approach to the world and a transactional approach to the world saying why are we doing this given our commercial reality with that area? trump has applied that thinking to a host of regions, and now to taiwan. unclear, you know, of course ultimately what foreign policy would be in a trump second term. that gives you a clear sense of what he's thinking as of right now. back over to you. >> anything else that you would

tune us into in terms of whether it was the way the biden administration keyed off of those remarks? >> reporter: look, i think you saw the biden announcement regarding this idea of tightening up exports to china. biden has been very focused on chips, the idea of bringing that manufacturing back to the united states. that's been the whole focus of his administration. so, you know, in the broadest possible sense, i think the two leaders are aligned really on this. the idea of reshoring the chips manufacturing to the united states is a goal of both administrations share, but rhetorically, very different approach. trump characteristically, very blunt here. and people might not be familiar with that or they might not remember that from the first trump term. i think it's a little jarring for people to see it. that's how trump expresses himself and will again when he's in the white house again. >> we're focusing on the companies, .

we appreciate it. the chips may be selg off on trump's marks, but there is lots of investment opportunities according to my next guest. let's churn to charlie, vice chair of ariel investments. the time in the republican party has been reinvented. you think the stock market is still an old fashioned reagan republican, why is that? >> when i say it's an old fashioned reagan conservative, it's because the stock market looks free trade. and the stock market actually likes immigration more than people remember. and so the market can get a little concerned when people start talking about tariffs, because the market believes there's often not just one-sided tariffs, but they become trade wars. so a lot of our companies export goods around the world, particularly software companies, but also agricultural equipment

and grain companies. we export a lot. and if there is a trade war, that's not going to be good for corporate profits. so that is where the market would kind of like the old republican party rather than the new one. >> people say that's where the role of the state steps this to guide policy no matter where the stock market wants to take you. i thought of putting the small-cap rotation in this context, the tweet made me laugh yesterday when he said, as a holder of small caps i'm enjoying the rotation. but as a long-term holder, i know it won't last. do you have a few on that? >> actually, if you look long, long, long-term back to when we started studying whether small caps did better than large caps, they have done very well. small caps have beaten large caps by a lot since data was compiled in 1926. it's only in the last 15 years or so that large-cap growth has been so strong. so we would like to see a return to history, which small-cap value did very well. one of the things that is

helping that is a return to more normal interest rates. very high interest rates are tough on cyclical stocks and smaller companies who are higher borrowing costs. microsoft, google -- >> this predates -- low rates were also bad for small caps. and here's another note that i chuckled from eric johnson, he said, earnings in 2024 for the russell 2,000 are expected to be the same as they were in 2021. the exact same. three years, zero earnings growth. this is what small-cap holders have had to contend with. >> that's been a tough economy that high interest rates have had a lot to do with that and a lot to do with the tough housing market and auto companies not reporting great profits. so we believe that we can get a return to more normal profits

when interest rate drops to normal levels. that will be good for sectors, including banking, that make up a big part of the small-cap index. >> one final comment on this. a lot of people might say the same thing. it's good to see a rotation away from something that's only five stocks that are the entire market. does it have to be small caps, though? couldn't we be talking about the s&p 500, or industrials and health care and energy and that sort of thing? does it have to go all the way to small cap? >> it will be both, kelly. it will be rotation and a broadening of the market within the s&p 500 away from those top seven stocks. but it's also going to be in small-cap value. there are factors that help different sectors more than others. lower interest rates help small cap more than large cap. they help value more than tech. and then frankly, less regulation. we haven't talked about it. a trump victory would mean better banking regulation, better energy regulation, better

for-profit regulation. >> you think the two catalysts here have been better inflation data,higher probability of a trump win, deregulation is one aspect. do you think they'll allow more mergers? j.d. vance's comments are getting a lot of attention. i would say even from reading them, he appears to be directing his criticism mostly at big tech. i don't know if he would have a problem with energy sector mergers for instance. >> i think that's just directionally going to get better. it's been very tough to do mergers in media, particularly tough in banking. i think across the board, we're going to get less ushback on acquisitions. again, that's good for small-cap companies. it's usually the large-cap companies that buy the small caps. when you have had low m&a volumes, that is a lack of a cat catalyst. so i think you're right, vance doesn't like big technology

companies buying everybody else, but he'll be okay with bank mergers, manufacturing mergers, oil and gas mergers. >> we talked about how oracle has done well. you have energy names like apache, banks like northern trust. what is the deal? >> ad talum educates nurses. we need more nurses. the biden administration hasn't liked for-profit education. that's been done very well as it looks more like trump is going to win. and what was the second one? >> risidio. >> it's a home thermostat. so when people remodel homes or build new homes, then resedeo does better. it's had a nice run already but will do better with lower interest rates. >> charlie, appreciate your time today. great to check in with you. >> thanks, kelly.

now, while former president trump is going after taiwan, joe biden is going after corporate land lords, unveiling his nationwide rent control plan yesterday. diana olick has the details. before we get to that, we got new housing data. what did we learn? >> the total housing starts in june came in slightly higher but driven by multifamilies. single families dropped just of 2% from may but still over 5% higher than june of last year. builders were looking at rates over 7% and a pullback in buyers. now, the big gain came in multifamily, which jumped 22% month to month. multifamily members tend to be more volatile month to month, so it's important to know those starts are still down 23%. multifamily is pulling back this year because of record new supply that has come on the market, both last year and this year. millions of units. but demand is strong, and there are some saying that two years from now, we're going to need

more supply again, and without these starts now, we won't have that supply. and that actually is one of the arguments being made against a plan unveiled yesterday by joe biden to put a cap on rents. it would have to be passed by congress, but it says corporate landlords with over 50 units in their portfolios would only be able to take advantage of faster depreciation writeoffs that they use now if they cap annual rent increases at 5% per year. this, according to the plan, would cover more than 20 million units nationwide. it does exempt new construction, but opponents argue that it would still discourage developers because it suggests that long-term investments in housing can be hit retro actively. kelly, i would note that rents right now are flat year over year due to all the new supply. >> right. maybe it would -- maybe builders would still do it, but it seems like equivalent of a tax, you're just going to get less of it. i don't know if there's any data people have looked at behind

that. >> not yet. it was just unveiled yesterday. >> it's hardly the first time they have tried something like this. >> but the market overall needs more units, both for sale and for rent. that's what over the next couple of years we'll have to see more construction. that's why i think you need to see plans pushing for more construction. >> diana, thank you very much. appreciate it. i do believe that was part of biden's proposal as well, saying we need 3 million new housing units. joe biden sharing his intentions yesterday saying -- >> my next guest says rent caps may be popular campaign trail rhetoric but could have unintended consequences for the housing market. joining me now is former u.s. senator judd gregg. grade to have you here, senator. welcome. >> thank you, kelly. >> do you want to reflect on this week for a moment?

i think going beyond just the insane events of the near assassination of a president, now with vance on the ticket, so many people are saying this party could not be more different than it was 10, 15 years ago. >> well, that's absolutely true. there's been a fundamental shift. the party of reagan believed in a lot of things that the populist party of trump does not believe in. he believed, for example, avoiding isolationism and felt that you had to confront evil with significant force. it believed in market economies, it didn't believe you should manage the economy from the white house by picking winners and losers and we should give our industrial base the chance to compete worldwide through lower trade tariffs. it believed in fiscal discipline, something that donald trump doesn't seem to believe in. which is that you don't spend money you don't have in an extraordinary way. and so the reagan policies of the republican policy that's carried it through the '90s and

2000 period hasdon abandoned. one of the ironies of the populist position is that the democratic party also has a problem. they're moving to what i call a european socialist model. but you look at that model and the populist ideas, they aren't that far apart. to some extent, they're two sides oh of the same. >> caller:. >> absolutely. >> protectionism, isolationism, no fiscal discipline. so there's an irony here of confluence, even though they claim they're significantly different between the democratic party, which is moving towards european socialism, and the republican party that's moving toward populism. >> i think that's very well said. under that lens, when we talk about biden's proposal to cap rents at 5%, could that be a trump administration -- would they contemplate trying to fight inflation that way or do you think they know better.

>> no, but put this in perspective. basely what joe biden is talking about is rent control. and it's ironic that jason fuhrman, head of the economic counsel under obama, claims that rent control is one of the most refuted policies in history, and he was in democratic leadership. but what senator vance has proposed is that you limit investment from market oriented forces like private equity into housing, and that's essentially has the same effect. because basically the only way you reduce rent is by expanding supply. and improving the quality of the rental units. the only way you're going to get that to happen is having capital available. capital doesn't flow into things that don't make money. so if you put rent control in, you reduce capital. if you don't limit the ability of the folks who have the capital, the private equity

groups or other groups like that, to invest in housing, then you've got to reduce the supply. and the practical effect is the same. it may be different policies but the effect is the same, which is you reduce -- look at new york. new york's the absolute perfect example. >> indeed. if i were to say to you, okay, what is the best way to increase housing supply to drive down rent, part of me, i hear the question and i say if rents are high enough to bring new people into the market, they'll come into the market. if they're not, they shouldn't come in. but i guess that's not a popular point of view. what would be your take on it? >> it's certainly not a fundamental view that gets votes. as a practical matter, what you do is you make investing in housing economically viable. and one of the best ways to do that is to get the interest rates back to something more normal, not down to zero, where they were which is totally

wrong. you get it to a more normal level. that's going to happen, obviously, chairman powell has clearly said he's going to start moving interest rates back down. when interest rates come down, then you get people willing to take mortgages out and buy housing or invest in building new houses because they can afford the cost of borrowing the money. that's the best way for the economy to get more housing and lower rental. >> maybe you do incentives on the developer side of it -- >> there's the accelerated depreciation and housing gets very significant -- it's just a mortgage deduction is huge. so i don't think -- i don't think tax incentives are needed at any more significant level. i think what you do is you simply get the economy back to functioning normally in the area of investing and creating new units and renovating old units. >> let me then ask you about the

latest news just in, which is adam schiff has called for joe biden to drop out of the presidential race. he's the california democrat seen as close to pelosi, and we're waiting to see from her whether there's any final indication. in the statement he says -- >> what does this tell you? >> it tells me that the democrats realize that they're in really, really serious trouble, and they're on the verge of annihilation where they lose the house, senate and presidency and they're scared. in politics, if you're going to lose your job, that really scares you. and adam schiff is the consummate politician. the real player here you mentioned is speaker pelosi. she is the force in the party for rational thought. basically, if she says time's

up, then i think it is up for joe biden. but, you know, the only way they're going to get competitive again in this race as it lays out now -- i don't think it changes in politics, we all know that. a day is a year as far as politics is concerned. but the only way they're going to change things is to change their nominee. and adam schiff has come to that conclusion. should speaker pelosi come to that conclusion, and i think joe biden has some real problems. let's face it, very honestly, and i hate it, this is the truth, the american people see this. he isn't up to being president for the next four years and people know it. >> every time there's a video that comes out or new statements are made and so forth. so now perhaps schiff's break on this becomes more significant as we look to see what they'll do from here on out. senator, thank you for your time. a pleasure. >> thank you, kelly. >> former senator judd gregg of new hampshire. coming up, pro-logis raising

its guidance, we'll talk to the ceo about their outlook for ai infrastructure demand. their number one client is amazon. and less than 14 hours left in amazon's prime day event. i need to get on that. i need a veggie chopper. adobe is expecting shoppers to spend $14 billion across these two days. how much on credit? we'll ask the founder and ceo max levchin about that after the break. we're back after this. tamra, izzy and emma... no one puts more love into logistics than these three. you need them. they need a retirement plan. work with principal so we can help you with a plan that's right for your team. let our expertise round out yours. i'm andrea, and this is why i switched to shopify. it gave me so much peace of mind. if we make a change, my site's not going to go down. and just

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the moment i met him i knew he was my soulmate. "soulmates." soulmate! [giggles] why do you need me? [laughs sarcastically] but then we switched to t-mobile 5g home internet. and now his attention is spent elsewhere. but i'm thinking of her the whole time. that's so much worse. why is that thing in bed with you? this is where it gets the best signal from the cell tower! i've tried everywhere else in the house! there's always a new excuse. well if we got xfinity you wouldn't have to mess around with the connection.

therapy's tough, huh? -mmm. it's like a lot about me. [laughs] a home router should never be a home wrecker. oo this is a good book title. one of the biggest online sales events of the year, amazon prime day is still underway. shoppers spent $7.2 billion the first day alone, up nearly 12% from last year according to adobe. they expect total sales around $14 billion, or a 10.5% increase year on year. my next guest joins us with more on the consumer trends he's seeing and a sneak peek at a new survey to be released next week. max levchin, great to have you. welcome. >> thank you for having me. >> what do you have up your sleeve? >> we hnever reveal the story

until it's over, so i hate to disappoint, but things are looking pretty good. the things of the american consumer is hiding their wallets and staying away from shopping are greatly exaggerated. folks are buying. you can see the numbers speak for themselves. the demand is well spread, we're still seeing excellent strength in every category from apparel to electronics. at this point, this is our story of post pandemic travel needs to be retired. it's just shopping is back on, and people are buying. it's not to reduce the real load people are feeling from the pinch of high prices. i think the story of american consumer still being pretty resilient is not the same thing as them not caring about the prices being high and inflation still high. >> i agree. so what you're saying drives what we learned in etail sales data for last moment, as well. but also the disinflation we've been seeing in e-commerce specifically, i wonder how much

of that disinflation has been a headwind to the prints we're getting in terms of spending. in other words, could volumes be healthier than nominal numbers tell us? if i buy a sweater 15% cheaper than a year ago, i'm still buying it. so i wonder again if that's causing some confusion how the consumer is doing. >> yeah. and the math is probably beyond my ability to affirm or to be precise. our last quarter, we grew four times the rate of e-commerce. regular commerce grew 8.7%. so i think from where we sit, our growth has been extraordinary and we continue to deliver value to our partners and consumers. i think the trends are definitely hard to read. i always look at things that are constant. just the internal growth and we're still in a -- almost a fully employed economy, although

unemployment is ticking up, but demand is really strong. >> so we would expect by now, i'm curious to see what happens throughout this cycle if it turns, when do you guys start experiencing, i don't know what you call default rates, or a consumer is not making payments, they get pushed off the service and so forth, do you see any sign of that? can you break down any composition of the consumer to suggest if there are any segments under pressure? >> umm, almost two years ago, we talked about seeing some degree of softness in the folks in the lower credit traumnches, but sie then, we have not seen a tremendous amount of change. incidentally, i take issue with the term "buy now, pay later" but if i go with it if you call credit cards buy now and pay forever. >> what would you call yourself? what's the term? >> i think we consider ourselves

a great alternative to credit cards. we talk about a better way to pay. the most important thing that we deliver to our buyers, to the con consumer, is a sense of certainty and ability to control their finances and have a really clear picture of how long it takes to go from starting to pay for something to wrapping it up. my joke about credit cards buy now, pay forever is about this notion of revolving -- >> that's how they make money, absolutely. >> exactly. we don't charge compound interest, late fees. we think of ourselves as a much healthier product. we just surveyed thousands of americans, 90% say that having a predictable monthly budget is what they see as a top priority as they manage through inflation. this notion of consumer weakness, it's the other side of the inflation coin. they feel like their money is leaking out and they can't tell

where. the reason buy now, pay later, there's no unpredictability, there's no resolving or figuring out what's the minimum payment? the payments are precise. so that is the value of that. that's why consumers are turning to us during these times. >> buy now, pay less, buy now, pay little. we'll come up with something, i think. >> buy now, feel good about your choices. >> that's too long. max, thank you for your time today. really appreciate it. max levchin with affirm. coming up, blackstone, dr horton and domino's are on deck to report. we'll bring you the action, the sty d adorantre coming up. stay with us. back after this. at t. rowe price we let curiosity light the way. asking smart questions about opportunities like clean water. and what promising new treatment advances can make a new tomorrow possible. better questions. better outcomes.

♪ ♪ welcome back to "the exchange." i'm kate roj wers your cnbc news update. nearly 2/3 of democrats want joe biden to step aside from the presidential race to allow for a different candidate. that's according to a new poll from the associated press taken two weeks after the debate,

which also found only 3 in 10 democrats were "very confident that joe biden had the mental capability to serve another term." that's down from the 40% polled back in february. "rust" armier hanna gutierrez-reed dismissed. attorneys allege the misconduct from the prosecutor. she is serving 18 months for her role in shooting of the ci cinemat cinematographer. and italy investigates armanni after chinese suppliers underpaid workers, paying them a tiny fraction of their pceri. "the exchange" will be right back after this quick break. n y? can you hear me now? (dj) can you hear me now?

(runner) stay with me now! (teens) oooo! (woman 1) mírame ahora! (woman 2) get em now! (roger goodell) we're ready now! (woman 3) have fun! (fan) ooo, pinch me now! (woman 4) save me now! (toddler) let's go now! (woman 5) check me now! (toddler) catch me now! (gamer 1) cmon! (gamer 2) play me now! (toddler) okay, bye now!

as mafgts continue to price in the possibility of a second trump presidency, we've seen the likes of solar stocks beneficiaries come under pressure. my next guest says there's one trade that will work regardless of who's in the oval office, and that is reshoring.

joining me now is my next guest. it's great to see you. are there obvious or more pure play reshoring stocks akin to solar where i don't have to worry about other factors presenting themselves? >> yeah, thanks for having me. i think it's a theme that, to be honest, has been working for the last six years, ever since we got trump tariffs, lower taxes, and it's very fascinating. something that people have missed out. equal waited industrial shocks have outperformed for six years. so the trade for reshoring is what we have seen since we got chips back over the last two years, and we have seen construction spending up 35% during that period. so this -- i think that there is a lot of debate about what happens, trump policies, you

know, and once i start noting down best trump policies, most of the policies are quite polarized. we don't have -- [ inaudible ] -- they're all about the breadth of the market. it's not necessarily the same case under democrats. i think once you screen out all the policies around -- everything that's there, china comes out as number one, and construction spending is the other one that comes out for the u.s. so that's the reason i think reshoring stocks in the u.s., the stocks have benefited. >> do you see china, as you were talking about -- so you call it kind of the trump 2.0 basket,

but we can look at the biden 2.0 basket and look for areas of overlap here. pr prologis, we're about to speak to the ceo, a lot of diversified industrials, where the biden basket has more educational services, consumer finance, renewable energy and so forth. are there name where is they overlap? >> once we created the trump and biden 2.0 basket and concentrated on ten stocks here, only one or two stocks, industrial companies, those are the only names that are in common. and hence what we have seen, whether it's clean energy companies or solar companies, even taking out ev benefits and subsidies that we get for buying evs, those are the things that are going to be very sensitive for trump 2.0. those are the places trump has

been very vocal. >> sure. in industrials, what would be kind of a specific reshoring name, do you think? >> you know, if i go in a subsector by subsector, i think machinery, domestic machinery stocks, they have become part of our basket. so i think -- and that's what i would be looking for and finding out exactly what are those companies that broke out. this is a trade -- you know, more and more -- [ inaudible ] and the best performing sector with the industrials -- i'm sorry, within small caps is industrials. i think that's the place where i would be focused on.

again, whether you just stay with the largest of the largest caps or expand yourself, i think trump 2.0 is increasing your breadth of the market. it's one of the places where i find active investors should do very well. >> again, you're in the camp that says this broadens out. look to financials and industrials and to these reshoring candidates. minesh, thank you for joining us. we appreciate it. let's turn now to a key player in the reshoring place, prologis. shares of the company up as much as 5% today after posting a slight beat on the bottom line. revenues fell year over year, but raised full-year guidance, saying a dwindling pipeline should boost profitability. joining us the chair and ceo of prologis. hamid, good to see you. >> nice to see you, as well. >> so what's the ai play here?

i think you guys of like e-commerce. you're e-commerce, warehouses. what's the ai angle? >> there is an ai angle i'll get to, but we are in a much more basic business than that. basically, almost 3% of global gdp goes for our buildings in 20 countries around the world. our facilities are the infrastructure that supports consu consumption. so pretty much everything in your studio, at some point its journey would have gone through one of our facilities. we are not an ai play to the -- you know, in a pure play or way of thinking about it, but we do have a very active business and growing business in data centers. a lot of the logistics properties that we have, and a lot of the land that we have lend themselves to data center development. we've got a number on their way, and we expect that business to

grow rapidly. of course, that's fueled by ai and other things. >> so are you yourselves becoming a data center business or do you just focus on maybe having the asset and having someone else do the buildout? >> no, we actually have the land, we get the entitlements, we build the buildings and lease them to users of data centers. so yeah, we continue to own them over the long-term. >> should -- what portion of the business is that now? what would you expect it to be in maybe five, ten years time? >> it's a very small portion of the business today. it's less than 1%. but it's likely to be 10%, 15% of the business going forward. in terms of impact. we're not sure, we haven't made the decision whether we're going to keep all of these data centers on our portfolio or that we're just going to develop and sell them as we go along. it all depends on the capital requirements of the business as they evolve. >> so interesting. so also, this has been a unique

moment for the company, because we have this huge surge of e-commerce on the pandemic. stocks are holding up okay on the other side of that. how can we have kind of volumes that still look decent? we talked about your full-year outlook, but at a time when the consumer and many of the pandemic industries are still in decline or adjustment? >> yeah, so let me give you some numbers. before covid hit, e-commerce represented about 15% round numbers of u.s. retail sales. at the end of the pandemic, it was about 25% of u.s. sales. so it took a ten-point jump, really we got ten years of growth in about six months in that business. >> wow. >> and it declined a little bit, down to about 23% after the pandemic, as people started spending money on experiences and travel and all the other things, other than consumption

of products. but it's now rebounded and it's growing off of a much higher base. so this narrative that e-commerce has gone away is crazy. i've never understood that. sure, it's not jumping by ten points every six months, but it's still growing off of a much bigger base than before. and the relevance of all that to our business is that e-commerce takes three times as much warehouse space as bricks and mortar retail does. >> i see. that's a huge secular shift, and really a pull forward. hamid, you've guided this business through many a cycle. very interesting how ai may be part of the next one. thank you for your time today. >> thank you. coming up, the trump camp is reportedly seeking to undo biden's ai curves here at home, ll fen create more silicon vaeyridly policies. we have all the details and potential impacts, next.

a growing number of tech elites voicing their support for the trump/vance ticket, including two of the most influential names in silicon valley. deidre bosa has the details. >> that would be ben horowitz. add their names to the growing list, switching camps out of the election. andree sen said he's been a democrat most of his life but now he says -- >> the future of our business, the future of technology, new technology and the future of america is literally at stake with some of these -- i just say like really misguided and difficult policies. so here we are. and we think donald trump is the right choice. >> part of that has to do with access and entitlement. they talked about a three-hour

dinner last than two weeks ago with the former president and how he aligned with their views on ai regulation while expressing frustration and not being able to get meetings with the current president biden. take a look at these photos. other former democrat donors bragging about their access to trump. big smiles on their faces. now with former vp j.d. vance. mark andree sen and ben horowitz with active portfolio of nearly 800 companies, they could bring more trump supporters out of the woodwork. they're making this all about support of little tech. you heard that in that podcast that we played for you. as pointed out this morning, an andree sen is still on the board of meta. >> another controversial company for the former president.

deirdre, thank you. we've got builders, banks and breads in earnings exchange. see if you can figure that out. we'll be right back.

welcome back. it's a grab bag today. looking at dr horton, domino's pizza. gina sanchez is lidoadviser's chief market strategist. totally different thing to talk about. let's start with dr horton near their all time april high. analysts are keeping an eye on how much those buyer incentives are impacting margins. do you like the stock here? >> we do like the stock. this is onewe've held for a while. if you look at the dynamics, obviously home builder confidence has fallen to an all-time low in july. but we are expecting that it's not if but when the fed will cut later this year. it's being priced in as early as september. it could be november. either way i do think it's going to represent an opening for the

home builders. if you look at the state of inventory right now, inventories are still below their prepandemic levels. there's still quite a bit of pent-up demand. we just need affordability to pick up up. that's where d.r. horton is an interesting pick because they have a very affordable product. >> i worry it's priced in. nevertheless, we'll see what they do with their results and what it tells us about sentiment. blackstone is coming off a 52-week high. you can make arguments for maybe a trump angle here if deal making picks up and so forth. how would you play this one? >> this one has a few elements to it. if you look at what's been the tailwind, it's been a really strong credit boom. that's been a huge benefit for blackstone. that part of their business has done very well. the parts dragging the business down are private equity where m&a has been largely stalled and their real estate fund. we think the fed angle is certainly a buoy for the real

estate fund. that would be a big benefit. we also see m&a opening later this year. that could be a big boon to their pa business. we think there's more room for profitability to ramp up. >> we'll close it with domino's pizza. it's fighting to retain customer loyalty these days, up for the last couple weeks. what do you do with it? >> we think this is even broader than the domino's play particularly because we've seen a lot of these chains that are really hurting, partially because consumer demand is falling because those really high interest rates on credit card balances are starting to bite. so we see sort of a soft patch for sort of all consumer names going through the rest of the year. >> buy now, pay forever. that's what they called credit cards earlier today. gina sanchez, lido advisers. that's it for "the exchange." "power lunch" starts on the

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welcome to power lunch. the fed is releasing the beige book right now. we're digging into that and will bring you the details shortly. we've got another interesting day for the markets. the dow is higher by about 200 points, setting records crossing the 41,000 for the first time led higher by united health and j&j among others. the s&p is down and the nasdaq is really getting smacked, dow