tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC July 22, 2024 5:00am-6:00am EDT
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world markets reacting to president biden ending his presidential campaign after pressure from his party. biden now endorsing kamala harris and his war chest. reactions are pouring in to the historic political development. democrats are looking to next month's convention and we look at the trump trade and the big week of earnings. it's monday, july 22nd, 2024. you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc. ♪
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good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange." thank you so much for being here with us on the historic monday morning. i'm frank holland. we start with breaking news. global investors are working through the change in the u.s. election and the markets. president biden has ended his re-election campaign and en endorsing vice president kamala harris as the democratic nominee. important to note, she is the frontrunner, but not the official candidate. the s&p coming off the worst week and the dow would open up 50 points higher. the s&p is higher as well. in addition to the historic development, investors are gearing up for earnings. more than a quarter of the s&p 500 will report. including alphabet and 3m and coca-cola. we are checking the bond market
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ahead of the pce report. look at the benchmark ten-year yields at h4.22%. we are watching oil come off the worst day since june. the oil market is up .30%. important to note, wti is $82 a barrel. we are looking at cryptocurrency as well this morning. specifically bitcoin trying to regain the $69,000 level this morning. we will continue to watch cryptocurrency. that is part of the quote/unquote trump trade in recent days. back to the breaking news. after weeks of party and donor pressure, president biden says he will not seek re-election ending his 2024presidential campaign. biden endorsing kamala harris to become the democratic party nominee. in a post on x, president biden writing, i believe it is in the best interest of my party and
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country to standdown and focus on fulfilling my duties as president. he plans to address the country later this week. we are hearing from vice president kamala harris who is not the official democratic nominee, but the only prospective candidate able to tap into the $96 million war chest. saying i'm honored to have president biden's endorsement and my intention is to win this nomination. we have top donors weighing in and actblue reporting now it has seen more than $46 million in small money donations since the biden announcement. semafor quoting the wall street money machine is roaring back with peter orszag giving support to harris. we are getting reaction from the global business community as
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well as reid hoffman weighing in. we are hearing from microsoft president brad smith thanking biden for his service. we hear from box ceo aaron levie saying there is a superior platform to protect a.i., s science and immigration. i hope they take this newfound opportunity seriously. we look to the reaction at the global markets and we will see what is going on and more questions than answers on the democratic ticket and investors. carolin roth is in the london newsroom and jp ong is in singapore. carolin, we begin with you. >> good morning, frank. european markets taking the news out of the u.s. when it comes to biden in stride.
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a lot of buyers coming back into the market. you have some green on the screens with the dax up 1%. the cac 40 is up more than that. the ftse 100 here in the uk adding gains of 0.5%. you mentioned the earnings season going into full swing in the u.s. same applies to europe this week as we get numbers from the big banks. deutsche bank and bnp and unicredit. we need ifo numbers this week as we get a picture of the european economy. i want to tell you about the earnings we had out today with ryanair. i want to show you the sectors one by one. you are seeing most of the sectors in the green led by construction, materials and autos. travel and leisure is the clear under performer off by 1%. why? ryanair, the low-cost carrier, came out with disappointing
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numbers. back to you. >> carolin, thank you very much. we turnover to the action in asia. jp, what are you seeing over there? >> hello, frank. it was a trying monday for stocks in asia. of course, with the fnew uncertainty with biden dropping out of the race and that brings an option of donald trump coming bag i back into the white house. those not so friendly comments from former president bidonald trump has raised questions. it is the same for south korean stocks and ev battery makers because a number of them committed to multibillion dollar investments by the inflation reduction act and that could be pulled back if trump comes back to the white house.
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the one bright spot was china with china cutting the reverse repo prime rate. hang seng benefitting. good morning, frank. >> jp ong, thank you very much. for more on the key investor take aways from president biden ending his re-election campaign, we bring in tina fordham. tina, great to have you here. >> good morning, frank. game on. >> certainly. tina, i want to get your reaction to the biden news and the news from the market was the futures in the green. the nasdaq up .50%. >> i have been saying for a long time, as you know, i thought markets were really getting way ahead of the politics. there has been a consensus for some time that trump was almost
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an inevitable winner in the race. we still have over 100 days to go and democracy brings surprises. surprise, surprise, biden is going to join the short list of one-term presidents. we now see a lot more energy injected into this race and the money is rolling in for kamala harris. >> all right. certainly no short of surprises when it comes to the campaign, especially in recent days. i want to actually turn to what a harris administration might be. let's say if she were elected, how should investors view this? do you see harris surprising with policy? would she be significantly different than president biden if he were reacted? >> i think we have to allow for the kind of evolution of views. the market hasn't thought of harris as a candidate. certainly in my anecdotal conversations with institutional investors, there is a strong
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sense that a united states would not elect a black woman for president. we also have seen the reaction to barack obama as president as well. harris is a different character. she hasn't been a state governor. she doesn't have joe biden's foreign policy experience. i think that is getting too much in the weeds. harris is running as the alternative to trump. the anti-trump, as it were. if she's able to mobilize the kind of various, you know, disenfranchised constituencies that did not want to vote for either biden or trump, then she has the potential to shape the outcome. i see this as a continuity play really in terms of u.s. foreign policy trends more broadly over the last several decades. >> one of the reasons top
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democrats were pressuring the trump campaign with the down ballot tickets. the odds of democrats winning the senate were will changed. they go on to say the implied odds of the republican sweep decrease four percentage points. this is the most likely outcome by a significant margin. do you agree with that take? >> that's what the current numbers tell us if nothing changes between now and november 5th. that's how you read the polls. the polls are a snapshot of current public opinion. likewise, the prediction markets. >> if you are the investor, this is the most likely scenario. do you need to shift your portfolio? what moves should you be making? >> i think it is far too soon to talk about this in base case and tail risks. you will see what the polls look
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like in two weeks. the market can react overnight and safe haven move and tech stocks in the u.s. dollar. that is on the basis of the so-called trump trade. we don't know what kamala harris trades look like yet. this is a time to wait and see. the vp pick is also going to be a key indicator although it obvi usually isn't. it will likely be white, midwestern male helping to carry the battleground states or maybe mark kelly from the state of arizona. t the former nasa astronaut and pilot. >> a lot of things to figure out. tina, thank you for being here. tina fordham. we have more to come here on "worldwide exchange," and the ceo reaction of the events in d.c. including a first on cnbc
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interview with the ceo of air lease and tenable. plus, we know where donald trump stands on china, but should kamala harris be the democratic pick? later on "worldwide exchange," take a look at the harris versus trump playbooks. a very busy hour still ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns. stay with us. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley (♪♪) ♪ well i was raised by careful hands ♪
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." back to the breaking news and president biden dropping out of the 2024 race and endorsing vice president kamala harris as the democratic nominee. while biden and former president trump have been vocal about the need for greater restrictions on china. less is known about what a harris administration looks like. we have eunice yoon with more on what leaders in china are saying about the political shakeup. eunice, good morning. >> reporter: hey, frank. officially china is not commenting on what it described as the u.s. internal affairs. so no comment on president biden's decision to exit or harris' endorsement. this is a surprise that kamala harris is likely to maintain the biden china strategy. she has been to the region several times and in southeast
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asia was critical of the china influence into the south china seas. biden's policies are seen as damaging to china with chip controls. what will be missing is president biden's personal touch and his longstanding relationship with president xi jinping because the two have known each other since their days as vice presidents. the state media has typically will use what is perceived as chaotic episodes in the united states as propaganda opportunities. cctv ran something that this overrides the interests of the american people. the chinese people, frank, really have been fascinated by the u.s. electoral process. biden's exit is a top trending topic here and people have been completely shocked that this
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kind of exit could happen under pressure from its own party. >> i think a lot of us here in the u.s. were equally shocked, eunice. big surprises with the u.s. presidential election and some big surprises from the china central bank. can you give us the details? >> reporter: oh, yeah. absolutely. that was another big mover in the markets today. the chinese central bank decided to cut a key short-term rate, an important one as well, as two benchmark lending rates for loans made to consumers and businesses as well as for mortgages. this comes after china has been having to address a weak economy and the numbers that we saw out for the second quarter last week was not very good. weaker than expected. it also comes with the whole back drop of the chinese policymakers coming up with a reform plan. investors have been disappointed saying this reform plan does not
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go far enough. frank. >> eunice yoon live in beijing. eunice, thank you very much. as we head to break, we take a quick market flash of ryanair after reporting a 46% loss of profit in the latest quarterly report. ryanair weighing on other budget carriers in europe. easyjet down 7.5%. wizz air down the same level. we will have more from the airline sector with the farnborough air show coming up after this break. stay with us. at least, not the way it could work. your people are buried in busy work. and you might be thinking... can ai make it all work? can ai help your people work... without all the workarounds? feel better. make customer service work the way customers expect? that one. make your old tech work with your new tech?
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." top executives from airlines and defense contractors are meeting at farnborough air show outside london this week as they discuss the disruption. our phil lebeau is on the ground at the show and now joined by a special guest. phil, good morning. >> reporter: thank you, frank. i'm joined by the ceo of air lease. john, we will talk about the show here and the orders and how you feel about the business. i have to start off with president biden's decision not to run for re-election. does that change the calculus with air lease as you work with the government apparentnd regul? >> we work with so many on either side of the aisle over
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the last 40 years, we will work with either administration or tax changes. we are a global business. we will be very, very cued in on that. in terms of the aircraft side, we don't see any immediate changes or anything that concerns us at this time. so, it's probably more along the lines where corporate taxation is going. >> let's talk about the aircraft. we talked about the backlog of orders for airlines that want to fly your aircraft that you order from boeing and from airbus. how confident that you that they can get through the period where they want to increase production, but they can't? >> well, it will take several ye years, as both of them have knowl acknowledged. that is our airplane we have on lease to them today. airbus and boeing have acknowledged it. we have to be patient like with
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the jet noise. >> in tthat is part of the air . be patient. frank has a question. >> this is frank back at cnbc hq. you said your earnings had increased -- hello to you. you said your earnings increased by 15%. we are seeing the travel demand at a record high. is that what you are seeing globally? what does it mean for your business? >> not necessarily globally. we do see that in the united states and a little bit in europe. not so much in asia at this point in time. that's to be expected. there's a snapback in travel. a lot of capacity has been added to the market. overshadowing that, however, is what phil mentioned with the supply chain. aircraft demand is at an all-time high. valuations are at an all-time high. this is our comment on the lease rates this quarter. we don't see that changing any time soon. >> john, were you on the board for spirit aerosystems. i'll not ask about the deal with
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boeing buying spirit. you interact with spirit and air lease with steve and leaders at boeing. they believe that they can get past this stretch here and quickly start to ramp up production. based on your con kconversationh them, how confident are you about that happening? >> i'm optimistic. a lot of work has to be done. i've never seen a boeing company more focused than they are now, phil, in righting the ship and correcting quality and doing all of the things we need to see done so they can get the cokc confidence back of the regulators and customers and flying public. i'm optimistic. >> do any of your customers say to you given the problems at boeing, i want to go with airbus before boeing, or is that overthinking it? >> that is a bit of over-thinking. supply is what it is and if they get it, they will get it from
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boeing or airbus. you know, i think that might be overdoing it a bit. no one said forget it. we will not consider boeing. i think the industry is trying to rally around boeing and help boeing get through the problems. that will require patience and require us to work hand-in-hand with boeing to get through the problems. >> john plueger, thank you. love our conversations every year. >> likewise. >> frank, back to you. >> thank you to phil lebeau and john. great commentary. as we head to break, shares of bank of america showing that it sold stock dropping it down to 999 million shares worth $43 billion. bank of america shares are up 25% for the year. this morning, they are down 1.5%
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in the green across the board. back to the nasdaq. the nasdaq up .50% right now in the pre-market. we are taking a look at the top gainer on the nasdaq 100. at the top of the list is asml. the chipmaker up 2.5% and followed by nvidia. applied materials up 1.5%. we are watching the russell 2000 small-cap futures after closing out a three-day losing streak on friday. they are fractionally higher. we will talk more about the small caps later in the show. we are checking the bond market as we await pce on friday. that's the morning money set up. we turn back to the breaking news. after weeks of party pressure,
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president biden says he will not seek re-election, ending his 2024 presidential campaign. he is endorsing vice president kamala harris to be the democratic nominee. he wrote on x, i believe it is in the best interest of my party to stand down and focus on my duties as president. biden will address the country later this week. we are hearing from vice president kamala harris who has received endorsements, but it is not the official democratic nu nominee, but the only candidate to tap into the war chest. saying in part, i am honored to have the president's endorsement. reaction is pouring in from donors. actblue, an online donation processors saying it has received $46 million in donations since the announcement. and semafor is saying the wall
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street money machine is roaring back to life with peter orszag speaking out. and reid hoffman is backing harris to be the president of the united states. now is the time to get a moderate candidate who can easily beat donald trump. brad smith, president of microsoft, thanking biden for his service. and box ceo aaron levie posting the democratic party has a clear window to create a superior platform and story. he added, i hope and expect they will take this newfound opportunity seriously. for more on the wave of support around harris, let's bring in eamon javers. ea, eamon, now we are seeing the
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money flowing in for harris so far. >> frank, this was never a question of money drying up. this was a question of support for joe biden drying up and donors' frustration. now he is out of the race f, we will see a gusher of money to the democratic committee. kamala harris is now the only declared candidate on the democratic side. it is not impossible we might see others. take a look here at what actblue said. you mentioned them overnight. they put out a statement de detailing the fundraising. actblue saying as of 9:00 ap.m. e eastern time, $46 million has been added. they say is the biggest fundraising day of the cycle.
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small donors are fired up and ready to go. an indication here of fundraising success early for kamala harris. here is what heshe said in the fundraising email. these are not ordinary times. this is our america. that fundraising e-mail going out within hours of the announcement yesterday. meanwhile, we are learning more about the democratic national committee process here in how to move forward now they don't have an official presidential nominee. they are saying the rules committee will meet between 2:00 and 5:00 p.m. wednesday on july 24th. that is available on the web page of the democratic national economy. there is a process in place rolling forward. interesting to note that barack obama's statement yesterday, the former president of the united states, did not endorse kamala harris and endorsed a process to
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come um p with a nominee. she is the only declared candidate. you put an as sterisk on that. >> let's bring in brian gardner from stifel. he is the host of potomac podcast. >> good morning, frank. >> the look at futures and it is green across the board. the s&p is a third of a percent higher in the pre-market. what is your reaction? >> my reaction is a surprise like everybody else, but knowing this was inevitable. this was signalled for months and certainly since the debate in which everybody saw the president struggle a little bit. this was coming. the timing wasn't known, but i think we know what the end game was. as far as the market reaction, i don't think the move yesterday
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fundamentally changes the race. let's assume harris is the nominee. it's her's to lose according to what eamon was saying. i think investors see trump as the likely winner in this scenario. i think the trump trade which has kind of been in the background the last couple of weeks and months, i still think it's in place. >> we will talk about the trump trade in a minute, brian. eamon, you have covered the campaign over the last few months. you talk about the trump-vance and that ticket and policies and thinking about the policies related to business, but i want to talk about harris. what do we know about harris and her close ties to tech with her days back in california? how should we view that? >> that is important.
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i don't think you can look at harris and say this is a dramatically different set of policies than joe biden. this is somebody who might say on israel have a different approach in foreign policy. otherwise, i think what you are looking at is bidenomics with a different face on top of it. if you like what you have seen with the economy and dow and inflation where it is and unemployment where it is, you might like what you are going to see from kamala harris. i don't think this is a demramac depa departure. i think kamala harris will signal continuity and stability here especially since this is a disruptive moment in the way it has been handled by the democrat irrelev democratic party. so, don't look for big changes there. again, as you pointed out on the republican side, i think we are looking at big changes from what
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donald trump did back in 2017 when he took power. he had a very different set of staffers surrounding him. mnuchin and establishment republicans in congress. if he is reelected to a second term now, he has an entirely different crew around him now and entirely different cast of characters on capitol hill. that points to very different policies from 2017. >> brian, back over to you. you conflated investors and voters. there is a lot of overlap. i want to talk about your clients. i'm sure you are getting a lot of calls about the so-called trump trade and trump is the front frontrunner. look at the small-cap trade going back two weeks. we see from the time the small caps took off on july 8th, the rest of the market has gone down. when you talk to clients, how are you talking to them about it and the so-called trump trade and the strength of the broader market with the volatility
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politically? >> i talked a lot about this and because of the trump tariff agenda, the small-cap trade makes sense. less exposure internationally. sector specific. eamon was mentions tech and vice president harris with her time in the senate. because she was close with tech in the senate, i'll compare her to joe biden who is from delaware and supporter of the credit card industry. i don't think anybody would argue that joe biden was pro-credit card industry as he has been president over the last several years. i would be careful reading into that. eamon's comments i agree with on the populous move and republican party. i think investors are trying to figure out how that works out. >> a lot to figure out here, brian. thank you very much for your time and insight.
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great to have you here. eamon javers, thank you as well. coming up on "worldwide exchange," picking up the pieces after the crowdstrike global i.t. outage. our conversation with the ceo of tenable on the changes needed to avoid another crippling outage like we saw last week. stay with us. old school hard k meets bold new thinking. (laughter) at 88 years old, we still see the world with the wonder of new eyes, helping you discover untapped possibilities and relentlessly working with you to make them real. old school grit. new world ideas. morgan stanley.
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exc exchange." companies are still reeling from the worldwide outage from crowdstrike which caused the biggest tech out age in history. microsoft with a tool to cover widows devices. joining me to discuss is amit yoran, the ceo of tenable. good morning. great to have you here on a day like this. >> good morning, frank. >> we will take about the outage in a moment. first, your reaction to president biden ending his re-election campaign. how do you see this news? >> we look for stability in the markets. i think some of your earlier guest called it. the trump factor is already baked in and an the lot of stab in the market. >> actually, we have a lot of
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volatility. for your business, is it meaningful to see the shift politically? is there one side of this that, in your mind, may create challenges for your business? obviously, kamala harris is thought to have close ties to big tech. >> cybersecurity is foundational today for any company running technology which is every company out there and government agencies as well. regardless, this is a non-partisan type of issue. for more organizations and enterprises recognize they need technology to operate efficiently given how dangerous the landscape is out there. >> i want to get back to the global i.t. outage. obviously, a serious situation and disrupted a lot of lives and businesses. how do you view it now we had days to process it? >> the most important lesson to learn here is one of resiliency. we cannot put all of our eggs in one basket. that is not microsoft from the
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operating standpoint or crowdstrike from the security standpoint. as you diversify your portfolio, you have to diversify your technology to make sure it is resill ient so if a problem occurs, you can continue to operate. >> we had some notes out last week from wall street saying this disruption related to crowdstrike crowdstrike, the outage and update and some businesses might be disbursed among other vendors? maybe some of that business may come your way? >> i think no doubt this will increase the attention paid to resiliency by boards of directors and hopefully by regulators. i think it is a critical issue and affects voter ths and consumers. we have seen it in airline and
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he healthcare. >> amit yoran, ceo of tenable, thank you for your time. still ahead on "worldwide exchange," more on the exit of joe biden for the democratic race. what it means for the economy and the fed. we'll be right back after this break. se three. you need them. they need a retirement plan. work with principal so we can help you with a plan that's right for your team. let our expertise round out yours.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." now president biden endorsing harris to be the democratic nominee. that move shines a spotlight on harris, but speculations and questions are growing about what a harris administration could mean for the economy to the fed. for more, let's bring in steve liesman. he would let jay powell finish his term if elected. >> reporter: let me add to what you quoted trump saying. he would let powell finish his term if he thought he was doing a good job. look, i think presidents have complicated relationships with the federal reserve and chairs as an example of that during the trump presidency. for a while there, he followed a
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normal process of finding a federal reserve nominees and abandoned it and went on his own. he spent a lot of time criticizing fed chair powell. as you said, frank, this is an about face. as for harris, i believe she would follow the same sort of general operating process of the biden administration which is very much a hands off. he has not criticized powell despite the high interest rates. that comes, frank, because the federal reserve and the body politic were united in the concept of we have to fight inflation and that's the most important pressing issue and most important issue in the polls and the economy at the time. now, with inflation coming off and the federal reserve still high, you might see some differences. >> obviously, we have a big
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economic report coming up later this week. pce coming up this friday. the fed is non-political. they are not impacted by the disr disruption. with all in our country right now, does that change the importance the of the pce piece? does that change the sense we will get a cut in september? >> i think that is something the federal reserve needs if it comes in line in order to do that september cut. there's nobody really thinking about a july cut despite the idea that inflation has come down quite a bit. it's going to be needed, frank, but the complication for the federal reserve is which fiscal policies do they aim at? you are right, the fed doesn't like to play politics, but politics do affect the federal reserve. they have a series of fiscal policies from former president trump and from a potential
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harris administration. >> i want to come full circle back to the potential policies of the harris administration. a lot of notes out. we had a note last week saying a harris administration would show more fiscal restraint and a biden or a trump administration. obviously, kamala harris did spend time in the senate, but not the long history in congress that president biden had. your view of the harris administration with taxes and fiscal restraint. >> you know, i have to come from the following place, frank, which is and this may sound odd to people who support donald tr trump, but the believe in the biden-harris administration is they have a good take on the economy. they do not take the blame from the inflation problem from the fiscal side. they believe they struck a
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middle ground supporting key industries and letting the market do its thing, especially when it comes to what they've done with the chip act and i.r.a. they feel they have done a good job. that is not necessarily what most americans believe because of the inflation problem. if inflation continues to come down, you would have a more ac act activist administration. one of the things you can count on with president trump is less business regulation laying. it is interesting getting back to the question on federal reserve. does kamala harris think they should play a role more on climate change? >> steve liesman, thank you. coming up on "worldwide exchange," more digest what this change means as we kickoff this
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." take a look at futures very close to the highs of the morning. s&p up .30%. the nasdaq is over .50% higher as well. remember, the s&p is coming off the worst week since april. joining me now to talk about what is going on with president biden dropping out of the presidential campaign is stephen whiting. >> good morning, frank. how are you? >> how are we all doing? a lot of the markets after president biden decides to end his campaign. the markets are in the green across the board in the futures. >> it is a lot more political drama with the change in the financial markets. you see this is not a tremendous reaction. let's recall the numbers under president trump with the returns and under president biden at 12%
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annualized. both these men presided over an economy with deep contraction over that time. turmoil over the pandemic. corporate profits will determine how the financial markets perform over the coming administration. i would just be really careful of a lot of movement with the sectors of the polling improvements. we saw cyclicals and small caps do well. you may see speculation with the reversal of that. bear in mind, we have a broadening profit improvement in the economy which is pointed in the direction a little bit more than tech stocks improving. the last is on interest rates. any assumption of big movement from congress of large tax cuts. it is a lot harder to figure with the 2017 tax cuts sun
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setting. a lot in congress still is yet to be determined. >> i know people will make moves. we have seen big moves with small caps and big moves with cryptocurrency. commodity moves are surprising. moving lower with copper. what are you expecting to see today? are you expecting to see knee-jerk reaction? >> it is modest. it is trying to process the election that has been speculated on for a good deal of time. some of the things that we need to be careful about is the assumption is the trump administration is making oil production easier. it pushes down the price. the energy sector, again, has performed really well here under that assumption. american output would grow faster. bear in mind, pushing down the price is not good for the sector. capital restraint is the way. >> one last question, steven.
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does kamala harris becoming the frontrunner to get the democratic nominee change the m math on the market? >> this is very marginal. this is is entirely speculation. it depends on the composition of congress and the presrespreside. thank you very much. that will do it for us. "squawk box" will pick up the story of president biden ending his campaign. "squawk box" starting right now. good morning. president biden withdrawing from the race and endorsing kamala harris. we have full coverage of this historic decision. including whether harris really will secure the party nomination and what top democratic donors are saying. also who she could pick as a running mate. we willi talk about the republican strategy changes now biden is out of the race.
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it is monday, july 22nd, 2024 and "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. as we do every morning, we will start with the look at the u.s. equity fultures. it is not what most of the global is paying attention to. s&p futures up 26. dow futures up 51. this comes after the nasdaq had the worst week since april. it was a down week for technology since the biggest global meltdown in i.t. on friday. you will see the
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