sabrina carpenter are putting taylor swift and tokaty perry o the back burner. >> now everyone will understand. if you see the green, if you see, like, we're bringing it all together here. and so is kamala in her own way. >> see you on "overtime." thanks for watching "power lunch." >> "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to "closing bell." i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner today. it is make or break hour. it begins with a rollback in the rotation. tech takes the lead. and this time, the gains are not coming directly at the expense of banks, small caps, and other cyclicals, which are all higher on the day. here's a look at the scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. s&p 500 up a full percent, basically just above friday's highs. the nasdaq, big outperformer up 1.5%. russell 2000 actually has been gathering some steam throughout most of the day.

it's up 1.25%, actually outperforming the s&p after starting well behind. semiconduct semico semiconductors rebounding forcefully after an 11% correction after its all-time high. that has a lot to do with nvidia powering higher as multiple analysts come to the stocks' defense and raise price targets. it's up 4.5%. that takes us to our talk of the tape. can this bounce be believed, and how did the shifting political probabilities play into this equation if at all? let's bring in christopher rhone, cameron davis, and jordan jackson of jpmorgan asset management. welcome to you all. chris, this market kind of wants to keep people off balance. you have this whipsaw, quick silver rotations last week, everyone declaring maybe this is an enduring shift, now we're backsliding a little bit. what are you reading in the market behavior the last eight sessions, and can we extrapolate

from there? >> i think the market behavior of the last five, six, seven days is what we should be focusing on, not necessarily today. i'm somewhat happy to see that the strength in tech and semis today is not at the expense of regional banks or industrials or other kind of the value or small cap names. it's been broad. it's been inclusive. and we're talking about a week where, you know, last week, you had 50% of the s&p make a one-month high. you had 75% of the russell 2000 do the same. that is really, really impressive when you look at the history of that data and what's the message? it means the trend is still very much fully intact here. i recognize there's some seasonal issues that are approaching here in an election year, into august and september, but i think if you got a correction here, it would be modest. it would be rotational, and i think the leadership message from the last two weeks should be heeded. >> so, the leadership message of the last two weeks is what, though? what we did get is a routine-looking pullback in the s&p 500 of 3%, 5% in the nasdaq

100, this huge burst off a completely washed-out level from small caps, and other things. so, what are we to take from that in terms of what might outperform from here? >> we have this saying in our work. when you're in an uptrend, be patient, not clever. when you look at the last four, five months, whether it's financials or small caps or some industrials, their only sin was chopping for four or five months. it got resolved in the direction of the underlying trend. not just banks, capital markets, insurance names have gotten back in the field. i think that's your leadership. >> cameron, it seems as if this burst in market breadth and some of the more cyclical tone of the leadership last week, at least the perception is, from what chris is saying, it buys the market a little bit of a technical cushion, perhaps. what would you read out of it in terms of what it says about orderings are going to be and whether the macro message is one that you would buy into? >> i think chris's point about financials is interesting

because that's where we've seen the most earnings revision higher in this earnings season. they contributed the most to the upside in earnings for the overall s&p, so we think this market will still be driven by earnings revisions, and that likely colors things like the growth versus value trade. growth earnings continue to move higher, really boosted by tech. value in earnings continue to drift lower. if that starts to change, maybe you see a durable leadership change, but if it doesn't, it means more of the same kind of narrow leadership that we have been having. >> the other part of it is all this started up as we got to the finish of the second quarter, and let's say the first two weeks of july were at a high, sentiment and positioning is looking like it's getting a little bit out on a limb. so, cameron, do you think that this sort of rotation, this little bumpy rotation has taken care of some of that? >> i don't think quite yet. it's been so slight. and you just -- you didn't even test the 50-day moving average for the s&p 500. if you look at the sentiment and

positioning measures, they are stretched. they're not quite as extreme as they were in times like early 2018 or late 2021, so that would suggest that maybe there is more juice to pull people off the sidelines and get them into the market. and so, what we put those risks into the -- into the camp of being not tom clancy risk, where they're not a clear and present danger, but we can't ignore them because eventually if you see earnings revisions start to move lower, they'll run into the fact that the market is expensive, positioning is stretched, and eventually, that could cause volatility. >> jordan, weigh in here in terms of, you know, whether the action recently and even today has revealed anything to you about what you expect the market. can we escape a further pullback and proper correction, and how do you think earnings are going to interact with all this? >> well, as you highlighted, right, this rotation really began after the june cpi print a couple of weeks into the month of july.

and really, what it continues to suggest is that growth is cooling but not freezing over, and the disinflationary trend is back on track. and i think that's what's really allowed sort of the small cap rotation to play out. i'm sort of fading kind of that small cap play. i think in an environment in which, you know, the bulk of the index is still unprofitable, looking at the russell 2000 on a trailing 12-month basis, the fed's going to be cutting interest rates very gradually, and again, growth is cooling, not reaccelerating here. i probably would be a bigger believer in sort of this rotation into the rest of the large cap sectors and taking some of the chips off the table from your big winners in tech and dispersing that to some of the more unloved sectors that have underperformed as of late. and this really feeds through into the narrative of earnings recovery coming out of the other sectors of the market outside of tech. you know, you're talking about potentially by the fourth quarter of this year, financials posting 40% year over year earnings growth. now, some of that is base effects from a weak fourth

quarter last year, but some of that is genuine net interest margin, initial income becoming to inflect positive and consumers hanging in there. so, that's sort of how i'm thinking about this rotation as of late. >> sure, and you know, chris, all this has gone on as bond yields have come off the boil. maybe they looked to be breaking down. and that's kind of opened the way for a lot of this movement, so can we count on that? >> yeah, i mean, we've been very forcefully of the view that bond yields are done for this cycle, that we've seen the cyclical highs, particularly on the short end. two yields got oversold last week, they're bounce agoing a t but there's a ton of resistance in terms of yields in the 4.50% to 4.60% neighborhood. i think you're talking about a terminal two-year yield of 4.75%. what does that mean for bitcoin? what does it mean for home builders, which have come off their oversold conditions? i think the market very much is trading rates and we expect that's a tailwind.

>> we got pce coming, cameron, at the end of the week. have we disarmed the inflation data, taken away its ability to scare us? >> typically by the time we get to pce, we have had cpi and ppi, so there's more certainty, and the market is expecting a benign number. look at the month over month for headline. they're expecting zero, which just means this is a market that continues to think that the d disinflation narrative will be intact and the data supports it. the question is, as we move into '25, will we continue to see that disinflation? and that could be something as a far right tail or left tail risk that we would consider as moving yields and potentially effecting market leadership. if we see sticker inflation, but right now, the data doesn't suggest that. >> jordan, you mentioned the market reacting to this retreat in inflation and confidence that it's going to continue at a time when the overall economy is

decelerating but really perhaps not stalling. are you concerned at all by some of the further slowdown fears, whether it's from unemployment claims or, frankly, this really, i would say, ambiguous data flow that we've got? because last week, you also got some upside surprises on retail sales and all the rest, but before that, people were very sensitive to any sign that the economy was faltering. >> sure. so, you know, i'm not too concerned just yet about the growth backdrop. obviously, as you mentioned, retail sales came in stronger, alongside some upward revisions to previous months' data. industrial production also came in a bit firmer. the labor market, when i look at some of the initial unemployment claims, some of that is some seasonality you tend to get this period being sort of weak seasonals on the initial claims, also given some of the bad weather in texas, they did report a pretty significant uptick in the initial claims number. the continuing claims number is a little bit more concerning,

but i think this is a reflection of not necessarily layoffs truly picking up, but more so a company just slowing their hiring, which potentially could have some upward pressure on some of these numbers. so, you know, i'm still in the camp that this is an economy that is normalizing to 2%, roughly trend growth. i also think this is a labor market that continues to remain pretty healthy, just given labor demand. now, obviously, some of the policies, depending on the outcome in november, could shift that narrative, but we're not -- we're not there yet. >> well, jordan, you have the capital dome behind you, so you're going to have to tell us exactly what all the politics and policy flux might mean for all this. it's been fascinating, because the rotations we're discussing have their, you know, macroeconomic and earnings-based reasons for occurring and just positioning, frankly, and then you put the overlay of, you know, rising probability of a second, you know, president trump administration, and it would seem like it feeds in the same direction, so how do you tease that out, and do you expect the market to keep trading on those probabilities?

>> i do, to some extent, continue to expect the market to trade on potential political outcomes, but i'm worried that the market is erroneously doing that. we've seen, in the past, just certain policy agendas don't necessarily play out to sector performance. a perfect example would be under trump's first administration, in which he sort of supported traditional oil and energy sector, the s&p 500 energy sector was down by about 40% under his first administration but actually rallied almost 200% under president biden. and so, you have to be very careful sort oftrading the noise from a broader macro growth perspective. i am a little bit concerned about assuming a fully republican sweep. the stagflationary policies that could come out of that, you know, typically trade wars tend to be stagflationary, and the tariffs that he's talked about potentially implementing, i think, could have -- would be pretty significant and market-moving, but i think in the near term, all this

contributes to elevated volatility in the near term, zooming back out and maybe taking off our red, blue, or purple hat and putting our investor hat on, i think it doesn't really change the narrative a whole lot over the next three to five years. >> chris, you mentioned, we're coming into this seasonal period where sometimes you have a little bit of chop or headwinds. i guess, one interpretation of how the market behaved in the first part of july and into last week is, maybe we are going to be freed of a lot of uncertainty, if it feels like a highly probable outcome one way or the other. are you expecting election year dynamics to matter much, even if it's just the seasonal factors? >> i think, at the end of the day, in our work, it's always the trend that matters more, and we've entered this period in a very robust and strong trend. i do think if you got a consolidation or correction, it would be modest, and i would underscore that. what's more important, i think, if you look at the leadership factor that emerged after the '16 trump win, it's financials, financials and financials. so, the extent to which that's

been pulled forward here, i think, is notable. if there's a difference between then versus today, we also have, as you know, mike, a macro dynamic of what was the soft landing winner in '94, '95? it was financials. ironically, what was the loser? it was tech. let's watch these semi rallies here. i think if there's a risk, these semi rallies try to make new highs and don't and fail. >> cameron, i'm interested in the degree to which it's applicable now to kind of use as a template what happened in '16, '17, mostly because we were coming out of this prolonged period of stubbornly low inflation, stubbornly weak growth, and the idea of reflationary policies, if that's what we were going to get, after the 2016 election, was exactly the medicine we were looking for. so, what now? >> and we were starting at the present time of a higher unemployment rate in wage growth that was running at about half the rate it is today, if you were to do something through immigration that would restrict labor supply, that could have the potential of exacerbating some of the labor shortages that

we still see in pockets of the economy. you also look at things like durable goods inflation. that really picked up when tariffs were enacted. overall inflation moderated. partially because of oil prices, so there's different pockets to point out and look at to say, could these policies potentially exacerbate inflation? it remains to be seen. it's a very hotly debated topic. >> chris, you mentioned bitcoin. what is that keying off of? i mean, aside from maybe some policies that allow it to, you know -- >> we've been very keen on the idea that bitcoin's entire existence is predicated on the explosion of liquidity conditions coming out of the gfc in '08 and '09, so i think, therefore, looking at it through the lens of a liquidity barometer, certainly one that kind of tries to grasp risk appetite is appropriate ehere, and the velocity with which it's come back to the highs or roughly the highs, i think, is impressive. and you know, i would just also add, on cameron's point, with respect to the comparison or not comparison to '16, watch rates

here from that perspective. rates right now are the big glaring difference. we had rates up after the trump win in 2016. we think they've topped here. the yields look heavy. is that a message that the bond market is keen on the idea that maybe the feet come off the accelerator when it comes to the economy in '25? >> obviously, that -- we don't know what all the swing factors are, i getuess, in terms of whas moving these markets, but it's interesting to try to decipher them. great to talk to you, thank you so much, chris, cameron and jordan. let's send it over to seema m mody now. >> we have our eyes on shares of verizon slipping more than 6% after the company posted weaker than expected revenue in the second quarter. the company's ceo told cnbc its products are delivering more value to customers but those comments failing to lift the stock, which is now the second worst performer on the s&p 500 today behind only crowdstrike.

and iqv holdings continues to climb. it's the best performer in the s&p 500 today. the health care services company releasing better than expected earnings this morning and partners upping its price target from 270 to -- to $270 from 2 $267. >> seema, thank you. talk to you again soon. we are just getting started here. up next, vice president kamala harris speaking for the first time since president biden dropped out of the race for the white house, endorsing her for the democratic ticket. we'll bring you a live report from d.c. with all the latest. plus, how should investors potentially reposition their portfolio amid all this political uncertainty? we'll discuss when jay powell sees terry hanes after this break. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. at pgim, finding opportunity in fixed income today, helps secure tomorrow. our time-tested fixed income suite,

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welcome back. the upcoming presidential election, front and center in the minds of investors. vice president kamala harris securing a critical endorsement earlier this afternoon, and donations are pouring in. cnbc's emily wilkins joins us now with the latest from washington. emily? >> hey, mike. yes, kamala harris continued to rack up those endorsements this afternoon. former house speaker nancy pelosi came out in support of harris, saying that she personally has known kamala harris for decades, rooted in strong values, faith, and commitment to public service, and politically, pelosi says, "make no mistakes, kamala harris as a woman in politics is brilliantly astute, and i have full confidence that she will lead us to victory in november." now, house democratic leader hakeem jeffries and senate majority leader chuck schumer have yet to endorse harris, but jeffries spoke with reporters today, and he said they both plan to meet with harris soon. he and schumer then released a

statement just moments ago saying that harris is "off to a great start" and noting that she is consistent with the grassroots and transparent process appealing to voters and those in the democratic party. fund-raising has also been pouring in. the democrats' main fund-raising apparatus raised almost $67 million yesterday, and we've continued to see the ticker on the website. we've been watching it, and that number just keeps going up and up, mike. it seems like there is a lot of enthusiasm right now that harris seems to be having a lot of momentum, and right now, really, is the only front runner for the democratic nomination. >> yeah, it's exactly what i was wondering about. obviously, very broad response. a lot of the folks who maybe on paper could have been challengers to her in this process seem to be endorsing her. is there a faction out there in the party that's saying, hey, we should still have a more open convention? it should still be a little more of a test of voter preference? >> absolutely. one thing that democrats don't want to have this scene, they

don't want to have it seen as a coronation. they want thoo make sure that harris is seen as listening to voters, and they're seen as picking a candidate that will be responsive to the needs and wants of the voters. the difficulty is that there's not really anyone coming out to challenge harris at this point. yesterday, we thought, for a second, that joe manchin might come out, but no, he has said this morning that he will not be running. so, again, it's not exactly clear how harris is going to earn this nomination, and the democratic national committee themselves, they're still figuring out exactly what this policy and process is going to look like in coming days, so i think a number of unknowns at this point, but harris is certainly gaining all the momentum as she's going up to delaware, going to meet with biden's staff at headquarters, really begin to talk with them. she said today is the first official day of they are campaign and say there are 105 days left on the clock before november and the november elections. >> yeah. which is a lot or a little, i

guess, depending on how you -- >> it's both. it's absolutely both. >> all right, emily, thank you. joining me now the terry hanes of of pangea policy. give us your take on how you think this changes the equation for investors when it comes to either probable outcomes in november or just the policy issues that are in play. >> good to see you, mike. couple of things. one is i expect harris to be immediately competitive, and my instinct is probably more than that. d biden was much closer in a lot of polls than democrats wanted to admit. now they're switching to, we're competitive and maybe more. but there is a lot of enthusiasm and a lot of money pouring in. people want energy in the campaign. they want energy in the executive. they weren't getting that with biden. second thing.

the assumption is that trump somehow has wrapped up the republican party, and they're all united. i think that's still not true. you've still got some republicans who would rather not have him. think of him as the haley wing. plus he's still under water with independents, and i think harris probably changes that, particularly with her focus on social issues, which are going to get hammered again and again and again, and a really good ground game inherited from the biden campaign. what i would look for, if i'm -- if i'm an investor, is pushback on a lot of the stuff. what's outthere today is very noble. you know what harris is. harris is biden 2, the sequel, by and large. trump is who he is, and people are already trading on that, but really, the make-up of congress matters the most, and your previous segment, there was a lot of talk about 2016. that wasn't a trump reaction. that was a trump plus all republican washington that made tax reform in 2017 possible.

today, we've got a different situation where the congress is very much likely to be politically split, and for that reason, you're going to see a lot more status quo in washington than kind of bold action on either side, i think. >> well, and terry, when it comes, then, to tax policy, status quo, does that mean that the trump tax cuts expire because that's what's already sort of law at this point? >> it does, yeah. the -- because if you're going to have, politically, my analysis, but political people's analysis is that there's a split congress. there's a bet that next year there will be a barely republican majority senate, barely democratic majority house. that split in a world where democrats are already calling 2025 tax armageddon means that there's not going -- the likely scenario, the base case, is that there's not going to be extension of the 2017 tax reform. only if you get an all-republican sweep, which i

think is less likely today than it was yesterday, will you have that. >> and in terms of the other issues, as we watch the market trade, you know, there's a sort of instinct that there's a certain playbook if you actually believe in red sweep, another playbook if you think that's highly unlikely, but also, just the idea of a tighter race that leaves markets in suspense and gets something closer to the near coin toss we thought it might be several months ago is something that could hold markets in check. >> before the -- you'biden-trum debate, this race was going to be very tight and even after the biden debate, it remained fairly tight. and i think that harris is in a position to be able to make up ground. so, what you're looking at is a real photo finish, both in terms of the presidency, but as i say, very importantly, in terms of the congress. right now, you got a situation where the house probably swings

on republican seats that were picked up in 2022 in new york and new jersey, that democrats were already targeting to get back. and in the senate, republicans are all but assured of a majority after jim justice was nominated in west virginia. they only need, basically, one other pickup in order to have a majority there on net. so, you know, all this is quite more noble than i think a lot of markets people understand. >> you say that, you know, a harris campaign is essentially going to be biden 2 or a continuation of the current administration. when it comes to something like -- we know the sort of tariff story, the differences there between these two likely candidates. but what about something like health care? those stocks had moved around quite a bit, whether it's about reimbursement rates or negotiating drug prices or things like that, is that in pl play as well? >> under a harris

administration, and the regulatory apparatus that she would control, all those things will continue as is. i mean, she may end up having to work with the congress on some aspects of medicare and medicaid, but drug price is all the rest is going to remain as is. you're going to have, you know, all the usual plays, green stocks or all the rest. the thing i would look for in markets is regardless of who becomes president and almost regardless of what the congress is, you're going to see a continued ramp-up in supplying the defense industrial base. there's going to be much more put not only into defense but in aj adjuncts like semis. there's going to be more defense and the like spending and that's a response to the geopolitical situation about which there's a great deal of bipartisan agreement here. >> yeah, and i guess we have to throw out the standard disclaimers that, you know, you just sort of never know how events will overtake because energy has been the best sector under biden because of other

things happening in the world. you wouldn't have necessarily thought so beforehand, right? terry, thanks for the time. appreciate it. >> appreciate it, mike. all right, up next, your tech earnings playbook, the xlk, temperature etf, gaining more than 15% over the last three months. deepwater's doug clinton will tell us where he's putting his money to work in that space and what he's expecting from the at acaps. th'sfter the break. "closing bell" will be right back. they switched to juniper's ai-native network. now everyone's so productive, they're operating at a higher gear... now their network is self-configuring, self-detecting and self-healing. so their it team deals with up to 90% fewer network trouble tickets. (sonic boom) whoa, what was that? just the sound barrier. that's the now way to network at work—with real ai—putting you in the fast lane. (♪♪) your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire.

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less than 28 minutes until the closing bell. let's get back to seema mody for a look at the key stocks to watch. >> mattel rising as much as 20%. the stock was halted earlier for volatility after reuters reported that biofirm el caterton has approached the toy maker with an offer. they are backed by lvmh. mattel will report earnings tomorrow after the closing bell, so waiting for any potential new stock up at this time. chinese tech giants rebounding today after beijing lowered short and long-term borrowing costs, raising hopes that it will spur business and consumer activity, both alibaba and baidu are up. keep in mind, baidu is still down about 22% this year. up next, deepwater asset management's doug clinton is back and breaking out his playbook for this earnings season. "closing bell" will be right back.

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to deliver the strongest numbing pain relief available. so, do your thing like a pro, pain-free. absorbine pro. welcome back. second quarter earnings season shifting into high gear this week as investors brace for results from mega cap tech and the nasdaq rebalance from its worst week since april. alphabet kicks things off

tomorrow after the bell. joining me now at post nine is alphabet shareholder doug clinton of deepwater. we had this crack this the nasdaq and all the related names, and in retrospect, everyone can say, they really were crowded, they did dominate the market oxygen for a really long period of time. this was an important reset. what do you do right now? has there been a more fundamental rethink of what's behind these names or not? >> we're sticking with tech to make it clear and simple. i think the reality is this. if you look at what's happening now in the a.i. era and you compare it to the dot com era, popular comparison, but i think it's apt. during that dot com era, '94 to 2000, we had 11 corrections of 10% or more in the nasdaq, so as we think about this technologically driven boom that we're in right now, one 5% shift over the last two years, 18 months, let's call it, since a.i. broke out, is not that much to speak of this that context and we still think the a.i. thing is just getting started so

these pieces and corrections along the way are just part of the puzzle. >> starting to hear a little more chatter, questioning just exactly how long the capex boom in a.i. is going to last. obviously, it's well financed. it's by the biggest companies in the world. they have tons of cash to spend. this is very solid as a source of demand, but the question is, if you start to see maybe not as quick a payoff, monetization of a lot of these initiatives, do they just dial back? >> we don't think they will. it's going to be one of the prime topics as we think about q2 earnings. what do all the mega cap companies say? they were more aggressive than people realize, and i think we're going to see that same messaging and the reality is if you think about a.i. and the megacaps, they sort of have to invest. they can't stop. we think of it as this pascalian wager. believe in god, don't believe in god. if you don't believe in god, you're destined to purgatory,

and if these companies don't invest in a.i. and they don't get it right, they're in purgatory. >> they have to behave as if they believe it whether they do or not. you mentioned last time, capex plans last quarter, were higher than expected and the market rewarded them for the most part. does that dynamic continue at this point? >> i don't think that they'll reward these companies. i think it's to be expected, though, and i think where it may play out is when we think about these hardware companies, and they've seen some of the most severe correction the last couple weeks here, i think we may get some renewed interest in those companies because they're still the prime beneficiaries of this capex spend. >> where does that bring you with alphabet? >> it's been maybe quietly one of the better performers of the mag seven group this year. it's still our favorite mega cap tech name, period, and i think if we think about two things, one is valuation. it it trades at the cheapest multiple of the entire mag seven group, and we also think on top of that, they have the best

story, i think, around who could really win big in a.i. they've got a foundation model that's competitive with gemini. they've got their own infrastructure, their own compute that they're building with tpus, and they have huge distribution. i don't think any other company in the mag seven group can really say that, other than google. >> do expectations for google in particular seem like they're reasonable heading in? are they -- is the bar high? >> i think they're reasonable. i think that's a good word to use here. i don't think the bar is excessively high. particularly look at the multiple on -- if the multiple were much higher, you look at a multiple like nvidia or microsoft, i think expectations are higher there. for google, i think they're reasonable, and i think the quarter will be fine. >> love to get your thought on crowdstrike. you've owned it in the past. follow-through selling today. where's your stance on it? >> it deserves to be a third off its highs after what happened. that goes without saying. the reality for us is this. it's a great company. i think it's going to take a quarter or two for them to work

out what does this look like for the business going forward. i don't know that they're going to lose a lot of customers, lot of logos over this, but there's going to be a lot of pricing discussions as customers come back to renew and say, hey, take care of us. >> and for a stock that's richly valued as it is right now. >> priced for perfection. >> doug, good to talk to you. still ahead, nvidia shares on the rise today after a rough run last week. all the details behind today's bounce and how it could impact the rest of the semi space. plus zion's bank corp. reporting earnings in overtime. "closing bell" will be right back. were you worried the wedding would be too much? nahhhh...

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make complex trading less complicated. custom scans can help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley ♪ we are now in the "closing bell" market zone. seema mody is back, digging into the bounce in nvidia shares, plus mizuho's looking into semiconductors after the bell, and leslie picker on truist latest quarter. nice bounce in nvidia, gets it back to where it was about four days ago. >> yeah, that's exactly right, and there's two bullish reports out this morning, mike, one from piper sandler, raising its price target to $140, suggesting

around 13% upside from current levels, citing nvidia's upcoming blackwell we lease which is slated for fall of this year, and citi has opened a 30-day upside call on nvidia as analysts there eagerly await a fireside chat between ceo jensen huang and meta's ceo, mark zuckerberg. both leaders are expected to talk artificial intelligence and potential collaborations. analysts there also add that the geopolitical risk that weighed on chip stocks last week presents a good buying opportunity. now, with today's price action, stock is now less than 10% from its recent high, trading higher by about .6% in today's trade, mike. >> seema, thank you very much. vijay, semiconductor, different part of the industry. what's the set-up here as they try to contend with a cycle that's been a little bit tough? >> sure. thanks for having me on, mike. i think this is the analog group as a whole, including xpi, what they're seeing is probably two

years of underperformance. so we think now what you're seeing is the analog group has gone through a significant inventory correction and we should start to see inventory across the supply chain start to normalize, and that sets it up for a nice, you know, nice outperformance over the next six months to two years. what we see, also, is automotive in the june quarter has been fairly strong, both global has been up 3% sequentially, and china has a big footprint, up 12% sequentially on the out motiv automotive side. we see the analog group actually start to catch up after a period of relative underperformance and start to outperform the group. >> what would you expect the street would need to see in the way of guidance at this point? what seems to be priced in? >> yeah, i think what the street will be looking for is definitely modest acceleration on the top line, plus also

inventory starting to, you know, flatten out or come down, especially as a lot of these suppliers or chip suppliers put in utilization at low levels,and so as demand picks up an automatic translation from would be lower inventories and that's very positive for the entire supply chain. >> you do mention this sort of overhang of increasing fab capacity. is that something that is going to be sort of worked off as a concern gradually? >> there's definitely a concern over the last 9, 12 months, but what we are seeing recently is almost every chip supplier has been cutting back utilization, so that takes off concern about overcapacity but you're still seeing concerns of capacity building out in some other segments of analog, like silicon hardware on the ev side, especially in china, and so that could be used to be a little bit of a headwind, but obviously,

xpi does not play on the silicon carbide. they're primarily on the silicon side and there you want a significant adjustment across the supply chain. >> i know you upgraded nxp, but you prefer it to other names in the group like texas instruments? >> yeah, we actually think an xpi microchip all start to do well over the next 6, 12 months. nti, obviously, is a global leader in analog, but where they have some challenges is they're bringing on a lot of capacity, obviously, bringing on multiple fabs, and they also have a little bit of a headwind in china where it's a lot of capacity coming on domestically. but what you see typically in the market that's kind of starting to go, starting to roll back is some of the lower end name stocks outperform. we do see some challenges there,

given the capacity at the capex levels that they have. >> got it. vijay, thanks very much. we'll see what the numbers are in just a little bit. we're getting news out of warner bros. discovery. alex sherman is here with that story. >> this has been somewhat long awaited, but warner bros. discovery intends to use their matching rights to match one of the three packages that have been submitted from -- that the nba has crafted with what it wants to be its new media partners, meaning disney, comcast, nbc universal and amazon. i'm told by a person familiar with the matter that warner bros. discovery is, in fact, matching the amazon package, which is a $1.8 billion per year package. i'm going to raedead you a litt bit of the statement. "in an effort to continue our partnership during exclusive negotiation and nonnegotiation periods, we acted in good faith to present strong bids that were fair to both parties. regretly, the league notified us

of intentions to accept other offers, leaving us to proceed under the matching rights provision, which is an integral part of our current agreement and the rights we have paid for under i want. we have reviewed the offers and matched one of them." i'm told that's amazon. "they will allow fans to keep enjoying our unparalleled coverage, including live game coverage while building on our proven 40-year commitment for many more years. our matching paperwork was submitted to the league today." i'm told the nba is preparing a response statement to come, so we will see exactly what the league says in response, but the news here is that warner bros. discovery is not going quietly into that good night. they are matching -- using their matching rights to try to stay in the game here and perhaps come away with a package of tv rights for both tnt and for max, its streaming service. >> i was going to say, alex, if,

in fact, they were to get this amazon package, the one amazon has bid for, would bit a smaller package? would there be fewer games than they currently carry on turner and max? >> all three packages, actually, have fewer games because they've split two packages into three. so, the answer is, yes to that. and the reason that warner has targeted this package is that the disney package is $2.6 billion per year. the comcast nbc universal one is $2.5 billion, so this one at 1.8 is the cheapest of the three, so it is more of -- you can make a better sell to investors in terms of what warner bros. discovery management is saying in terms of not spending as much and still coming away with a good size chunk of the nba games if, in fact, the league allows them to use their rights, and that is the, we don't know yet, so we'll see what the league says. >> right. not as simple as raising your hand and saying you match. alex, thanks a lot. appreciate it. leslie, truist actually up today on its results.

>> yeah, up more than 3%, mike. even though the quarter itselffuls pretty mixed, the outlook is stronger than expected. it's a continuation of a theme we've been seeing from regionals this season, one that's bolstered zion's, leading into its earnings in about 10, 15 minutes time. that stock is outperforming the s&p by about 12 percentage points this month alone. in focus will be credit pressures there as well as expenses, and analysts view zion's outlook as conservative, which may bode well for loan-making. consensus is expecting slight declines in eps and revenue on a year over year basis, though, mike. >> zion, leslie, just as you observe this group, it's one of the stocks that seems to move the most when it comes to, you know, whether it's moves in yields or something else. and i sue that's the net

interest sensitivity that it has displayed? >> that's right. it's kind of a -- like a lot of these braanks, this one is one that comprises seven community banks so it is very much that net interest income sensitivity as well as the regulation sensitivity as well as just the overall health of the economy sensitivity. so, it's pretty much as simple as that. >> yeah. and of course, with the regional differences as they apply. leslie, thanks very much. we'll see what they deliver after ithe close. you see the s&p 500 up a bit more than 1%. that's after a roughly 3% pullback from an all-time high. the dow is up 0.25%. nasdaq, the big outperformer, up 1.5% on the day coming back from roughly a 5% pullback and then the russell 2000 has actually increased its outperformance over the course of the hour, so this is not a pure rotation into mega cap from small cap and

cyclicals. you do have regional banks and others also participating with semiconductors among the leading groups. if you look at overall market threat, we got about three stocks up for every one that's down on the new york stock exchange, and notably, volatility index down 1.7 points, down below 16 again at the after closing the week last week well above 16. that does it for "closing bell." we'll send it to "overtime." >> that bell marks the end of regulation, domino's pizza ringing the closing bell much like a doorbell. ps international group doing the honors at nasdaq. nasdaq outperforming led by chips and tesla. that's the scorecard on wall street, but winners stay late. welcome to "closing bell: overtime." i'm jon fortt with morgan brennan. >> we've got a jam-packed week of overtime earnings. cadence design, cleveland-cliffs, nucor and more. plus, cloud and a.i.