tv Fast Money CNBC July 23, 2024 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
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seeing belt tightening on shipping now. >> ibm and enterprise software, how they filter that through, what we've gotten already is very important. of course, we'll have exclusive insights here on "overtime." >> of course, investors digesting alphabet and tesla as well. we did show you the gains for all the major averages. that does it for us here at "overtime." >> "fast money" starts noi. >> live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's time square this is "fast money." earnings pa looza. alphabet and tesla kicking off reporting season. but they're not the only stocks on the move tonight. we've got all the numbers and we're bringing you the trades. a game of arch rival, would you rather? we're pitting some of this morning morning's big moverers against the competitors. and going flat, shares of luxury retailer lbmh dropping as champagne sales disappoint and high end consumers pull back.
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can this stock get back in fashion or is there more pain to come? i'm melissa lee coming to you live from studio b tonight. we start off with the big movers hike alphabet and tuesla. we have all the action. we start off with phil lebeau on tesla. phil? >> this was a report for the fourth straight quarter where tesla's earnings fell short of expectations. the company earning 52 cents a share. of the street was expecting ten cents more. 62 cents a share. they did beat when it comes to revenue coming in at $25.5 billion. better than the street expectation of $24.7 billion. the numbers within the numbers this was a 43% slowdown in earnings per share compared to the second quarter of 2023. free cash flow did come in a little better than a year ago. coming in at $1.3 billion. but automotive gross margins
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excluding zero emission vehicle credits, that was expected to be about 16.5%. came in at 14.6%. in terms of deliveries, they once again used the language of notably lower delivery growth rates for 2024 than 2023. so, no change there. not surprising given the fact that we have seen challenges in terms of deliveries over the last couple of quarters. remember, the company plans to deliver a lower priced model, that's all they're saying about it, in the first half of 2025. perhaps during the conference call which comes up at 5:30, we'll get a few more details in terms of what the company is expecting. also, the robo taxi, that will also be a topic of -- that will certainly will be of interest for analysts when elon musk gets on the call. again, that starts at 5:30. back to you. >> a couple things, phil. first of all, on the kbgross margin, was that the lower mod snlz. >> i think so.
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-- models? >> i think that is one of the primary drivers. in terms of the zero emission vehicle credits, much higher than what we have seen in the past there. so that weighs on, you know, when you look it at the company's revenue. but then when you strip that out and compare everything, that's a couple of factors to consider there. >> yeah. it also felt like they were sort of laying the groundwork for a del del delayed robo taxi rollout. the deployment will depend on advances in technology and the regulatory approval there's, sort of, you know, cautioning people about getting too excited about this thing. >> i would agree. look, they've already pushed it from august to october. what does elon musk take during the call in terms of how much we'll see in october? look, if it's their vision and it's a sort of a 50,000-foot view in terms of what is possible and what they would like to do, i'm not sure that's going to move the needle that much. but if they can get granular and
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specific, if they can show a specific vehicle and give us a time line in terms of the robo taxi, that is a completely different story you're right. that language made it very clear there that there are a number of caveat caveat that's they're throwing out there when it comes to the robo taxi. >> phil, thank you. keep us posted. the call coming up in a half hour. dan, you walked in here, sat down on set and said there is nothing good about this tesla quarter. >> it is hilariously bad. really, it's really hard to find anything that's good about this quarter. i bring you back to early june. tesla diverted 500 million high end gpus from them to xai. if you think about robo taxi, yeah, they pushed out that he vent from early -- event from early august to october. that gets pushed out. it seems some of the commentary is not coming. what i think about this as an $800 billion market cap, and you look at the fundamentals of the ev business, you say to
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yourself, there is something way offside. you better be into robo taxi. you better be into humanoid robots and supervise the full-self driving. they have to call it supervised. and that gets pushed out. listen this very low single digit he percentage of tesla owners who actually subscribe to full self-driving. if you think about the push towards lower-end cars, if you think if you're buying a $25,000 ev that you're going to spend $10,000 on full self-driving? no. to me, i think all those things are wrapped up in that valuation. after the stock rallied 80% of the recent lows, i doesn't make any sense. it's never made a lot of sense here. the point i'll leave you guys with is the fundamentals of of this company are really bad. the things that people are buying the stock for are way in the offing. this guy never delivered on any time line. i don't know why you expect him to do so now. he seems busy doing a whole host
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of other things. >> hilariously bad. of that's the first time i heard that term here. so, look, to me, it's always a margin story. 20% of the gross profits came from regulatory credits. it was 12% in the first quarter. so, when you do the back of the envelope math, it suggests that margins actually were about 14.6%. and the street was looking for north of 16.5. so if it's a margin story, the margins continue to deteriorate. given the fact that the stock is just going up basically 90% from those recent lows, it suggests to me that it's probably -- that's not my phone. >> i looked at you. >> no phones on set. >> so, you know, i wouldn't say hilariously bad. i think the stock should be sold here. >> well, maybe bad considering the climb, right, and what people -- >> great miley cyrus song, i know. it's on my play list, "the
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climb". >> let's keep going. talking about caveats. watch what i do here. caveats in the case of tesla are caveat emptor if i may. >> now, you see -- >> again with the phone! >> see, that's people at the nasdaq. >> no one hear the phone except for us. >> i'm sorry. please go on. >> okay. >> even though that is a -- brady bunch, greg is buying a car and mike -- no. the point is with tesla, i agree with dan wholeheartedly on humanoid robots. we're talking about this on a day when sales are growing 2%. profits drop 145%. it's a growth company without the growth. i'm not here to tell you more than. that the valuation makes no sense. it's almost absurd that we believe anything elon musk says in it terms of time line for products that may or may not be part of the revenue stream. the revenue stream right now is that they sell cars. and that ultimately they may have an sfsfd high margin dynamic. the analyst kmupt is already
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pricing in. they should. the margin is money. that's fine. that makes sense. i would make an argument if 9% or is off the people that are actually using it, it may mean there is more to go. in the meantime, this is a stock that is way too expensive relative to the space at a time when all the early adopter stuff, all the subsidy stuff, the margin profile is something that is under presser. that is really it. the free cash flow actually came back. it's not that horrible burn story either way. it was never going to be about solvency. it really was four or five years ago if you ask me. it's not that issue anymore. i'm just not paying that for this company. >> on those two issues, full self-driving, they were giving out the free -- not samples. >> yeah. >> like a trial period to anyone who nt whatted the trial period. they are saying that -- who wanted the period. they're saying that self-driving attach rates go up. if you believe these predictions, maybe we've seen the worst of it in terms of the
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ev market -- dan is shaking his head, of course. but that is what the company is saying. >> well -- okay. he said a lot of things, right? some of which came to pass and some haven't. to me, we did see them sort of facing bankruptcy. remember that tweet by elon on the side of the road with a bankrupt sign. but to see the cash at $30 billion, i think that was partially because they produced a lot fewer cars than the street expected. so you're not producing cars, you're not using that money. but i also like the gentleman here never been comfortable with the valuation at all. does anyone else get any kind of credit for full self-driving? right? do we think about -- >> in china they do. it doesn't exist here. the other thing i'll mention, they had 60% market share here in north america. now that's below 50%. a small percent avenage of the e own the s and x. those are the high-end cars. those are the people to actually
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pay for full self-driving. >> a couple other things. it's interesting that elon love fest with donald trump, you have to assume this is somewhat of the quid pro quo for some kind of -- >> that tesla is going to benefit in some way. >> okay. that may be. putting that together though, i'm very skeptical of the humanoid robots being a significant driver of revenue any time soon. and ultimately, one day full hefl sieve driving, we can talk about -- self-driving. we can talk about this for a long time. >> the conference call under way in 20 minutes. alphabet shares are fluctuating. now down by a fraction or 1%. they did beat on the top and bottom lines but missed estimates for youtube ad revenue. we have all the numbers. steve? >> kind of an unassuming quarter for alphabet. shares not moving too much. they were just hit the red. we're going to see what happened on the call to cause that. first of all, go over the results. it was a beat on the top and bottom lines. the eps in at $1.89.
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street looking for $1.84. revenue, $47.4 billion, street look looking for $89.14 billion. the revenue says there was a lot of revenue growth driven by search and cloud. youtube revenue was a miss. and google cloud revenue was a tiny beat, $10.35 billion. by the way, that is the first quarter that that unit has hit $10 billion in sales who google also says $1 billion in profit for the call. let me give you highlights that we got so far according to the ceo on ai overviews. that is the new search product. not a ton of specifics. some highlights here saying increase engagement in searches, higher engagement from younger uses ages 18-24. and those who use ai overviews, they come back for more. also seeing good ad engagement on the ai overviews when an ad is shown above or below the ai response.
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on cloud, saying he is seeing a lot of momentum from artificial intelligence with start-ups building models or companies building their own ai assistants. the ceo talking about capex on the call saying we expect quarterly capex to be roughly at or about the q1 capex of $1 billion. they're announcing a new $5 billion investment in wamo. by the way, q&a is happening right now. 15 minutes left. so any updates that move the stock, i'll be here to give them to you. >> steve, is there any understanding as to whether or not the ad engagement that happens above and below the ai generated response offsets the ad revenue which may not be made from clicking through because you're not scrolling down? >> literally, no more details than what i just gave you. that was just super high level. i even asked the cfo on a call before this earnings call about
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that. what benefit are you seeing from this new ai search product? remember, they're rolling that out globally, i think they said they expect to hit a billion users who should have access to that product soon. so, you know, definitely going to want more details on. that maybe they're getting to it in q&a. i'll go back and take a listen. that is a good point. >> nothing really major. the youtube being light. i thought the cloud beat was shiite slightly more important than the youtube miss. the additional capex what the street is expecting. p that's interesting. you wonder, okay, does that go to nvidia? where does that money go? right? so, this was not a really monumental quarter. we haven't seen it. i do like that cloud growth though and they're really starting to be profitable which
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they weren't two quarters ago. >> that's where the stock is reacting. the numbers are more or less in line. the ad revenue was okay. if you think about the environment we've had where you think that ad spend -- we heard ad spent spd is moving higher. people were willing to actually kind of beef it up on the advertising side. that is interesting. and you have twoo wonder whethe things can be good. are they outgrowing ad faster than the industry? so far, you know, it looks like they are. but year-over-year, up 14% on revs, people start to question. we did this yesterday. google relative to itself not to the market isn't cheap. the whole market relative to itself isn't cheap. but going sl morogle is more ex the market than it has been in a while. >> look, youtube missing by $300 million tow me is not a big deal on a company that did $74 billion of revenue. it's the spend. right?
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versus $12.25 billion, it's $13 billion. the rest of the quarter is okay. cert personally, i thought the stock could sell off. it's not hike like you run that from them now. >> gene, let's start with tesla. we're about 15 minutes out from the conference call. dan called the quarter hilariously bad. stock is down 4%. what was your take on the numbers? >> it was rough, especially on the profitability piece. 14.6% margins ex-credit. the street was at 16.9. i think the stock is probably going to fade a little bit here going into, as they kind of process this. ultimately, the fsd numbers continue to cook though. that was up 330% sequentially. they were making progress on the
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bigger picture. that really stung the profitability piece. i think ultimately, i own the stock for what is going to happen in the next one, two years. and that is on track. i'll say one other piece, melissa, if this is a normal quarter and the gross margins ex-credits miss by 200 basis points like it did, the stock would be down probably 10% or 15% on that. the big picture, i believe, is still intact. that is the one piece that jumped out. >> for when you say what is going it happen in the next one to o two years and the stock is looking through. it is down 4% because of the big picture. what do you see on track? i mean, right now it sounds hike they're laying the groundwork for robo taxi to be further out in the future. they may be able to control. but also regulatory approval, it sound like they're setting
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people up for, you know, hey, we're going to do our best. we may not be able to get to it. >> so, the on track piece, that's important element here. what is on track for tesla? my sense if this comes together the next two to three years, 26 or 27 if that robo taxi comes out, that still loosely on track. if you asked me before the numbers came out, i would say early '26. that could be late '26 or '27. in the big picture, that is still moving more forward than any other car company. then i want to frame in the piece that was firmly on track which is the fsd miles driven, 650 miles driven. 150 miles driven in the march quarter. so, that step up, that was at 30% increase i mentioned, that stepup is encouraging that they're together proper t training, those are the piece that's tesla bulls are going to hang their hat on. eventually they're going to get
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the new cars out and eventually they'll get to autonomy. >> yeah, eventually, gene. let me ask you this. when you see the loss of market share that tesla had over the last year or so and you look at the way gm and ford are stepping back with their own evs but kind of pushing harder into hybrids, elon said they got it all wrong. of it's got to be, you know, full ev or nothing. but is that -- is this changing the game a little bit? it seems like a lot of people, at least in north america, want a hybrid as opposed to, you know, fully electric. >> it's definitely this -- the pace of adoption of evs is different twhan han what i woule anticipated a couple years ago. the hybrid piece is an element that filled that gap. i'm also in the same camp that having a vehicle that is both electric and gas at the same time is not the most efficient vehicle. and i believe that eventually all cars will be electric. and the reason i believe that it's not a political statement, it's not a save the world
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statement. it's about the most efficient way to move around. that is not a hybrid. they'll produce more vehicles that are cheaper, electric, and ultimately the decisions of traditional auto are making, even though they are the right decision in the near term, i think they'll come back to haunt them in the future. >> just quickly, your take on alphabet's quarter, gene? >> it was solid. the reason why the stock drifted back there is they reiterated the margins are going to come down a little bit because they're going to pull forward in the marketing in the september quarter. but they reiterated that margin should improve. outside of that, it's all about mo moneyization. they deposit give a lot of details. it's a similar opportunity going from desktop to mobile in search and going from mobile to ai search. so, i think that also is going to be a story that's going to be developing in google's favor. >> all right. gene, thank you. keep us posted on those calls.
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welcome back. we have more earnings movers for you. visa shares falling as profit climbed on consumer spending. after hours lows. leslie picker joins us with details on the quarter. >> hey, mel. you're right. stock declining on a top line for visa as net revenue came in 10% higher on a constant dollar basis. that $8.9 billion in the company's third quarter was driven by growth in payments volume, cross border volume and process transactions. payments volume growth has been slowing though on a quarter-over-quarter basis coming in at 5% nominal in q3 compared with 7% in q2. and that trend was true in the u.s. as well as internationally.
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now the conference call is under way. the ceo touting the growth in partnerships including those with visa direct which allows customers to move money across the world and that plorm saw sizable growth in the quarter as well. the company also giving guidance for q4 with an expectation for, quote, low double-digit net revenue growth. fairly in line with expectations. >> thank you, leslie. how do you read this quarterer? >> fine. just fine. you know, in line for a company that trades at this multiple is, you know, a tiny bit disappointing. so, you know, 26, 27 times earnings, that's actually not a crazy price for a company like this. but i don't own it here. >> it's a fine quarter. i think revenue is up 10% or so year-over-year. the problem is since march, the stock has been trading very poorly on a broader market until recently. it's not extraordinarily well.
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you had a downgrade a couple weeks ago. there is clearly something going on here that i think the analyst community is starting to figure out. and i think the stock market is starting to figure out as well. i can't put my finger on it necessarily. i think it's not a credit thing. maybe the transaction growth is slowing down and that 28 times may not be justified in this environment. >> all right. let's get to texas instruments. shares off the after hours highs after second quarter revenue in q3 guidance came in line with guidance. we are at the new york stock exchange with the details. zblfr this was interesting. the first earnings call answer -- question that texas instrument got was on geopolitics and whether a certain presidential commentses on taiwan in jis helping. he said yes every time there is news out there, we're seeing more interest. geopolitical, dependable capacity is not a new thing. customers looking at smi chain. they want to be immune from whatever is thrown at them.
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ti has fabrication plants across texas and utah. 75% of the business is based in the u.s. beyond geopolitics, the gross profit margins increased six basis points. unlike the peer, it is forecasting movement in the segment plus strength in china which is rare right now. in may, the activist investor revealed a $2.5 billion stake in texas instruments urging the manage w management to reassess the capex. third quarter guide did come in line with estimates. shares are shiilightly higher. they're trailing a number of the an lanalog investors. >> i it this comments from the ceo recordgarding it be a natio chipmaker are interesting in this political cycle. >> i'd play thand, absolutely. makes a lot of sense w that
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said, it's not a cheap stock. revenue was down 16% year-over-year. so, you take everything with a grain of salt. and then if we have a longer-term chart, go back to where it traded up and failed in 2021. look at where it is trading now. by the way, we're just getting back what we lost today. you're up against really important technical levels. this is a wait and see for me 100%. >> if you look at 2022, the revenues are down 20%. right? earnings are down considerably since then. 30%. the stock trades at 38 times this year. 30 times next. they don't have a play in generative ai right here. maybe there is a slide read through. apr apple is a 7% customer. this is not exposed to the sorts of things that you expect high growth to be. it's more industrial exposed. >> the bar is low. this profit beat is something that's great. it's noing to do cart wheels over. think about the seg mments they have exposure to. there are segments that are
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really interesting. i realize it was a mixed day for the folks out there, too. including gm. you have a dynamic where the autos are able to get pricing that they could get in '22. it is helping the auto makers that some of this supply has come back online even though they don't have the same products. >> tesla call kicking off in moments. we'll bring you the headlines. mus, ups closing out the worst day ever after disapoingt resu - disappointing numbers. we'll have inside the numbers after this. in any business, you ride the line between numbers and people. what's right for the business and what's best for everyone who depends on it. solving today's challenges while creating future opportunities. it takes balance. cla - cpas, consultants, and wealth advisors.
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we'll bring you any headlines from the tesla call. stocks finishing with small losses. dow dropping 57 points. s&p 500 down 9. the nasdaqlosing 10. spotify shares soaring after they beat earnings estimates before the bell, posting strong gross margin and operating income numbers. the stock's best day since january of last year. the cryptocurrency dropping as the spot etf begins to trade
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follow following, s.e.c. approval. the treasury treasury auctionine of the notes. you should have seen santelli. he graded the auction a minus but he said this is the strangest auction i have ever seen. so strong. >> rick forgot more about this than i know. with that said, if you think about it, it makes sense. if, in fact, the fed is on this rate cut cycle, the markets can get ahead of it in the form of a two-year auction. so, again, i'm talking in my book a little bit. i wouldn't put too much stock on a two-year auction. which makes sense. tlt closed lower on the day. i still think ten-year yields are going higher from here. >> tlt is a little further out. >> yeah. >> so that is the difference. i mean, i'm pleasantly
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surprised. i've been fearful of an auction that just goes very badly and not making things unwind. >> that's onest of the big debas is how far you are sneaking out on the curve? i think two years is something that everybody is very comfortable w by the way, the expression he's forgotten more about -- i mean, you can forget a lot of stuff pretty quickly and you claim that -- >> you mentioned something -- do you mean guy? >> i'm talking about the proverbial u. -- you. >> you mentioned cart wheels. what are the chance that's item was ever able to do a cart wheel? >> i feel like he could. >> no. >> the main streets of scars dale, he can do a cart wheel. i can imagine that. >> you're going to have to wonder that great thought. >> you never did a cart wheel? >> dan is not a cart wheel person. alphabet wrapping up the earnings call. shares down 1.4%. headlines from that call next. first, ups failing to deliver
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. welcome back. in a game of would you rather, we're looking at the movers and how they stack up against the chief competitors u.p.s. slashing guidance for the year citing sluggish package delivery. it's another setback for u.p.s. which has been underperforming fedex this year. u.p.s. down 19%. fedex is up the same amount. u.p.s.' loss, fedex's gain or has u.p.s. got ten too cheap to pass up? >> sadly, i own u.p.s. this is really frustrating. i think this is bad for fedex. but not as bad, of course, as it is for u.p.s. which, i mean, i think carol told me is great but it's not working the whole plan to not necessarily ship more but
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ship better revenue. right? >> right. >> and that's not happening. people are choosing cheaper ways to ship. >> after 36% underperformance sh it's still expensive to fedex. and it always is expensive to fedex. i think the momentum is with fedex. ups has a lot of questions. i think the entire sector has a lot of questions here. i don't think you have to be long in either, frankly. i would rather fedex. >> i'll play the game correctly. i'll also say fedex. >> i did not play it correctly? >> you didn't say you'd do either. you hedged a bit. but at the end you came through. but that's fine. fedex, i'll tell you why. the quarter, look at june 26th, the fourth quarter. that was great. much better when you look at what u.p.s. put up.
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u.p.s. iswhich is $100 lower th the all-time high, fedex is right. there a lot of people raise the targets. >> let's get to the automakers gm up 30% this year after gm shares fell 30% today. second quarder numbers, the company saying delaying ev projection including the opening of an electric truck factory. ford down 2% in sympathy. that company reports tomorrow after the bell. how do you trade the automakers? i'm going to go to you. >> i would rather gm over ford. i own them both. the multiple on dgm is very compelling. it was a little less than expected. the ev story i don't think is major surprise. we talked a lot about with the short guys last night. ultimately, you've got a die na dynamic where it wins.
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it took a couple years to come out and that is fantastic. >> if you prefer gm, you wade for ford here. it's been banging around for a couple years between $10 and $14 or something like. that i think the stories are similar as it relates to evs. let's just see how this thing acts. they report tomorrow after the close. i don't think you have to get in front of too many stocks in this earnings season to be honest with you. >> so, i would prefer gm as well even though i'm sort of bitter i don't own it anymore. they're both incredibly compelling. they probably likely to move together. gm is more concentrated story. so, i would go with that over ford. >> all right. now let's get to a couple staples names. coca-cola up 10% this year. peps pepsi fell 2%. meantime, pepsi said earlier this month that a weaker u.s. consumer is weighing on demand for snacks and drinks. so, which would you rather? it's interesting. coke actually saw pricing increases. they saw volumes grow. that is a very different message than pepsi sent earlier.
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>> i think coke is a better company. playing the game you would rather, it's a stock game. i would rather pepsi. coke is right up against prior resistance. go back and look over the last couple years. whereas pepsi is right down to past support. it stands to reason that pepsi should bounce here. coke should sell off. i would rather pepsi. >> i would rather coke. coke the company and coke the stock. i think coke the stock also, this doesn't have the headwinds around snack. snack pricing. i think snack is also such a wind fall for pepsi the last couple years. i think coke. i think coke in latin america and asia, good growth. >> agreed for the pepsi reason. i think that snacking -- i don't think we're done with the pressure on snacking. the pepsi multiple is cheaper, it's about 50/50 in terms of revenue. actually, i don't think they're priced differently. i'd rather be in coke. >> there were a few quarters around covid, around that time where pepsi tout the increases
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in the portfolio. we're going to increase price again. imagine all the increases having to be rolled back to some degree. that is a lot of pain and pressure on that business. >> i think it's underestimated the generational or the once in a generation moment that covid was nor for snacks and booze an beer. >> peloton. a lot of things. and the glp headwinds. >> i think that is significant. >> you think the ceo of pepsi watches the show? >> i would imagine. >> it's on mute. >> i'm going to show something. they're big fans of the show. i mean -- >> we are big fans of them. >> no doubt about it. >> half a bag before the game here. >> but what a great little -- i mean bolt on for a company like pepsi. haribo is a way of life. >> it can become a style. >> just throwing it out there. when it happens, mel, say that i told you. >> i certainly will.
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coming up, lbmh going out of style. we'll dig into the luxury letdown and what it says to the strength o the consumer. and gene munster, we'll be bk ac with his stant instant analysis earnings calls. more "fast money" in two. for 75 years. you're not waiting to win, you're ready to succeed again at umgc.edu.
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the luxury goods company mi missed expectations. they saw weakness in china with sales in asia ex-japan falling 14%. the cfo pointing out a severe demand issue in champagne. but apparently, chinese consumers are going abroad to spend. i don't know if it shakes out. >> we heard that story again and again about the chinese consumers are not shopping in china. but they are going to japan. it was up 57% which is obviously huge. but not enough of those chinese shoppers are going to japan. i thought it was so funny the sort of -- you know, not enough champagne demand. that was really a concern. wine and spirits wasn't great at
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all. jewelry wasn't great. sephora was okay. a little below where it should have been. the leather goods were a little light, not terrible. but to me, the thing i'm sort of surprised how much it was down given we have seen this story -- this sort of narrative of chinese consumer isn't there. wine and spirits aren't there. wine and spirits isn't great and leather and we've seen it with swatch and others. i am surprised waits down again on the same news. i like when things stop going down on the same news. apparently, that's not happening yet. >> we have a news alert on boeing. phil lebeau has details. phil? >> we have a couple of news notes here. let's start off with boeing. we have some news. the company saying that it is resuming deliveries of the 737 max to china. remember, i want to say it was about eight weeks ago that china suspended deliveries, taking deliveries of new maxes at the time. they said they wanted to look
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into some concerns regarding the head gear that would be used potentially within the cockpit. and some of the batteries that were used there. people kind of scratched their heads and said, okay. but now they have said they are resuming deliveries, accepting 737 maxes. good news for boeing. remember, they have a number of those inventory and they've been delivering those over the last year. the deliveries will resume. also, take a look at shares of tesla. i want to point out that just a few minutes ago as we listen to the conference call, elon musk was asked, when does he believe the first robo taxi rides will take place. he kind of chuckled. he said, i've been overly optimistic in the past. i'd be surprised if it does not happen next year. obviously, a number of factors go into whether or not that actually happens, melissa. but that is something that certainly tesla bulls will hang their hats on to say, yeah, we think it's closer than many people are expecting.
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elon musk saying he would be surprised if the first ones don't happen the first rides don't happen next year. >> all right. phil, thank you. phil lebeau. that stock is at session lows. down by more than 6% here. coming up, we'll have much p more from tesla's earnings chal is -- call which is still going on here and gene munster lloiwi jn us on what is driving the stock. more "fast money" in two. (♪♪) (♪♪)
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and z fold6 when you trade in your current phone. get the fastest connection to paris with xfinity. let's bring back gene munster for more on tesla. we had the headline about robo taxi. gene, also, there is another one saying that they expect production to start next year. what do you make of all this? >> i think that the stock has continued to slip in the after hours. as soon as elon wrapped up the first ten minutes of comments, i think investors were hoping for him to say something more optimistic. you mentioned a couple things there. but that doesn't really change the trajectory that still the substance of the excitement of the story is probably a year plus away. and, so, i think all those are good around just check the boxes. but those boxes don't start getting checked for some time. i think that's probably why we continue to see a little bit of
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slippage in the stock. >> why do you think all of a sudden investors care about a time line, gene? we've been thinking about robo taxi a year out and now a year out is problematic. >> well, it's problematic in the context of what we saw with margins. since those margins dipped, they did generate more cash. cash inched up to $31 billion. they got plenty of cash. but once you start to stress the margins a little bit, it causes investors to want to see more in terms of when this next thing is going to start to hit. i think that's kind of elevated some of the anxiety around timing. i'm still in the camp that they're going to deliver on these. they won't deliver it on time. but ultimately, no other car company is doing what tesla is doing. i think this is still going to move higher. >> gene, if the bet that elon made on price elasticity is very wrong for 18 months, why would you start making new cars? i have to assume that ramp is only putting more pressure on margins. >> well, two things.
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they're going to be reorienting the manufacturing process. they talked about this last quarter. these new car models, probably two of the three, i think there will be three, will be essentially a tweak. i don't think there will be a stepdown. they said they'll be able to build cars more efficiently. and, so, the price elasticity is a quick note on that is over the past few quarters, asps has gone from $46,000 to $43,000. they have gone down. but it hasn't been a dramatic drop. of course, one of these new products is going to be probably around $25,000. and, so, i think that true test of price elasticity hasn't hit. >> gene, basically, you're holding on to the stock for what's going to happen maybe two years down the line. i'm wondering how you think about that in terms of holding on to something that could very well be sort of dead money when you see so many other opportunities. you think of ai sort of as a once in a generation opportunity. there are other places to put that money. >> indeed, there are other
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places. there is no company like tesla that ultimately is trying to solve these complex problems. i know that other car companies are teasing around the edges. but this company is all in. call it whatever the market cap is, suba ta suba trillion dolla. even what potentially could come out from optimists. i'm not hanging my hat on optimists. when you think about that opportunity that sets in front of them. you think there are other companies that are $3 trillion market caps, i think tesla can be in that league. i know today is not the day to be thinking about that with the ugly margins. the i think the company is it firmly on track wherith where t world is going. in my opinion, that's why i'm holding my shares. >> all right. gene, great to speak with you. thank you for your analysis. gene munster of deep water. that stock is down by 7%. tesla. up next, final trades.
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final trade time. >> freeport, copper, gold, pulled back quite a bit. i think there is an opportunity on valuation. >> chairwoman? >> i'm thinking about turning into a mets trade which will be louis vuitton out. citi in. >> dan? >> verizon got nailed yesterday. dividend yields are going down. treasury yields. and you are all talking about this apple upgrade cycle.
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maybe verizon. >> guy? >> going to the bronx there's tonight? >> not me. you mean the subway series? >> they got swept the last time. >> yeah. that's a good point. they're going to burn them. >> pepsi and the game of would you rather, i think pepsi primes o it here. >> thanks for my mission is simple. to make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investors. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i am jim cramer. welcome everyone. i am just trying to make you money. my job is not to entertain you, but also explained to you. consumers that last are finally saying no. they are pushing back, demanding
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