Skip to main content

tv   Street Signs  CNBC  July 26, 2024 4:00am-5:00am EDT

4:00 am
and we're going to keep pushing. ♪ good morning and welcome to "street signs." i'm carolin roth and these are your headlines. european markets look to close the week on the front foot despite the mixed bag of earnings as investors reckon with the rotation out of tech. some glamour for the luxury sector. hermes with jumping sales in the second quarter giving the stock a boost. mercedes shares fall to the
4:01 am
second level after earnings in the unit fall 27% in the second quarter. and after u.s. gdp far exceeds expectations, today's data turns to pce data and any signs of the looming rate cut ahead of next week's meeting. ♪ good morning, everyone. it is friday and let's take a look at the stoxx 600 as we close out the week. we are seeing some marginal gains to the tune of 0.3%. what a week it has been with the earnings coming in thick and fast and the stocks overall. we are at a two-month low for the stoxx 600 on track for the second week of losses. it definitely has been a choppy week. i want to show you the markets
4:02 am
one by one today and a bit of a mixed picture. the ftse 100 up .75%. the dax is marginally higher. we had a lot of earnings in that market. the ftse mib is losing the points and the ibex 35 losing just a touch. it has been very choppy. when it comes to the week, the cac 40 is under performing down 0.9%. we had a lot of numbers in the luxury space which disappointed. the ftse mib is off 1.3%. the better numbers with the ftse 100 despite the weaker copper prices, the ftse 100 is still up 1.1% for the week. let's take a quick check of the sectors today. oil and gas doing better. basic resources bouncing back from the weakness earlier this week. chemicals and food and beverage
4:03 am
and telcos to the down side. let's get to earnings in france. hermes with the second quarter revenue rise and despiting disappointing earnings from lvmh. all regions, except for china, grew double digdigits. the number of customers had fallen. charlotte joins us with more. a lot of luxury names reporting this week. this one a little more resilient. >> yes. in a league of their own is hermes. luxury is luxury. they suffer less from the downturn and squeeze from the buyer. q2 sales up 13% for the second quarter on the organic basis. there is still growth in that region despite the slowdown there. positive surprise in the americas as well up 13%. that is the acceleration after
4:04 am
q1 as well. europe is also up 18%. what is interesting is looking at the different divisions, luxury goods up 18%. silk and scarves were lower by 6%. that is the division where most products are the aspirational buyer. ties or silk scarves. we see that squeeze having an impact on that unit. here again for hermes, we talk about ferrari recently with the business model. there is more demand than offer. there are waiting lists for the products and you wait for a birkin bag which sells for $10,000. that is reflected in the share price. this is the top gainer when it comes to luxury stocks over the past 12 months in the green when all of the other players in the red at the moment. at the top end and catering to
4:05 am
the wealthiest customers, you don't see a squeeze like the other place. >> i'm trying to look at the players. if you are a top player and you still have pricing power, you can do better. we are seeing some other luxury companies taking their pricing power too far. chanel for example. especially if the quality doesn't hold up. >> they all talk about the pre premiumization and the aspirational buyer being squeezed out. we are waiting to see when they come back. the jury is out. some being too squeezed out and then pivot to sunglasses or eye wear or beauty might be the bridge to the aspirational buyers. the jury is still out. we see the aspirational buyer squeezed out of the luxury buys. >> charlotte, thank you so much
4:06 am
for that. let's continue because lvmh is also lacing on its trainers as a sponsor of the paris olympics. we will be joined by bernard arnault at 12:00 p.m. cet. and let's look at the jump in the second quarter by essilor luxottica. take a look at the shares up 7.6%. mercedes has lowered the top end of the target after a 27% drop of car earnings in the second quarter amid subdued demand in asia. earnings fell 19% on the year. slightly less than analysts had expected. basf posted a second quarter revenue miss. revenues sank to 1.6 billion euro as volumes rose.
4:07 am
ebitda grew 7% on the year. still off by 2.7%. pushing on to thyssenkrupp. the company does not expect to see a near-term pick up for the industrial products. the company expects an operating profit of 500 million euro for the fiscal year with the sales set to fall by 6% to 8%. full results are due on august 14th. shares, take a look at this, off 8.8%. holcim cut guidance after sales in the second quarter fell 1.6% to come in below expectations. the building materials group pinned the slowdown on unfavorable weather in the u.s. impacting construction projects and disappointed issues in
4:08 am
europe. the ceo sees signs of the pick up and the group is well positioned to benefit. >> the infrastructure is progressing well. look at us in europe. europe has achieved highest growth last year and highest growth this year. we are heavily involved in all of the infrastructure projects across europe. more recently, we supplied our low carbon concrete on the wind farm. we are constantly supplying products on roads, tunnels and i think it will continue strongly in the years to come. all right. let's turn our attention to the u.s. markets. the s&p 500 is bouncing back 36 points. the dow jones set to add 88 points. the nasdaq is seen bouncing back to the tune of 165 points in this point in time.
4:09 am
i want to give you perspective of what u.s. markets have done this week. there you go. the nasdaq off by more than 3%. remember the tesla numbers? they weren't great. stock down 12%. s&p 500 down almost 2% this week. the dow jones only off 0.9%. what do we do with the rotation out of tech? let's ask michael snead from bnp paribas. >> good morning. the moves in the market this week and the risk-off return we had is largely attributed to the long positioning we saw in u.s. stokes stocks overall. you are likely not able to get a strong reversal back into it. we think don't fate on these moves. u.s. semiconductors look like the move has been too abrupt this week.
4:10 am
>> what could the catalyst be? >> you have to think about it in terms of what's behind these moves. one of the things we like is run a lot of models to understand what's driving the market. what we see is the market trading at a high likelihood of recession, but we look at the regime models and the regime should be trading in a soft landing regime. you have to start to process as we go to the events next week with the fed and non-farm payrolls. we are heading into august and jackson hole. these events could keep investors on the sidelines for the next couple weeks. >> you are seeing a disconnect in the market. the one side is expecting a deeper recession and the other one is not. i'm trying to understand whether we're just reading way too much in the summer lull. usually, of course, we have lower volumes and heightened volatility. is that part of the story that we're not really seeing? >> i think another piece of
4:11 am
analysis which adds to the story is the position taking. it is common into the summer, positions tend to be reduced. among the things we have seen is the period where things are shorter. it used to be end of june and july and risk reduction by investors heading into the summer. now it is much more abrupt going into the second half of july, august. that causes larger moves and overshooting from the stories as we see play out this week. >> is there any way to protect yourself from the sudden moves? >> when we look across asset classes, we are looking for diversi diversification. one of the challenges investors have at the moment, the bond portfolio is not providing you with protection. one is to use derivatives. put spreads on s&p and using some more defensive system structures we see becoming more popular with investors. >> more popular with which
4:12 am
investor base? we know it is largely institutionals using the derivatives. we see the u.s. retail crowd since the pandemic with the daily options becoming more popular. they now account for some 40% of all options, s&p options, zero day. is that something europe is increasingly doing, too? >> we are seeing that increasingly so and particularly in europe. the way that investors is changing. rather than implementing, they might purchase a systematic strategy which does it for them and makes it easier to add to the portfolio. >> retail investor may benefit? >> it is too soon. >> let's move on. next week, we have a couple of risk events. obviously, we hear from the boe and ahead of the boe meeting,
4:13 am
you have put on a short cable position. talk us through that. >> first of all, around the bank of england meeting, the scales are tipped to cut rates next week. we not for sure, but the market is pricing. we see the position in sterling which is very long which creates a vulnerability if they cut. from the valuation perspective, we see cable is looking overbought. against this risk-off back drop, we see it looks like a good one to pair against and look for cable to be moving well. >> you make an interesting point here. you say the market is very much long. cable. why is that? is it because of the politics? is it because of the optimism with labor? >> there is optimism with labour. the market created less uncertainty. where we see uncertainty being a key word in markets, to have a
4:14 am
market with less uncertainty is appealing to investors. >> you also entered a long stock euro 50. why? >> it has declined since then. we continue to like the trade. we see the euro stock appears to be oversold particularly among the earnings which were softer than expected. much of that news is now baked into the price. i think that plus the reaction we had this week, the market looks oversold and it could stay flat. >> michael snead says the market is oversold from bnp paribas. thank you. quick update on the small caps in the u.s. the russell 2000 futures look to open to the tune of 1.3%. futures, sorry, up 1.7%. there you go. now, nat west has raised outlook for the year and something total income at 14 billion pounds. the bank's beat on the pre-tax
4:15 am
profit in the second quarter increased mortgage competition and will buy a portfolio of residential mortgages from metro bank for 2.5 billion pounds. and euronex posting 4.9 million euro in the second quarter and boosted by the 20% increase of trading income. this company updated on the data saying the cost of the acquisition will be 30 million euro lower. the cfo spoke to cnbc about the listing in the markets compared with london. >> the liquidity of the equity market in europe is now on euronext. ten years ago, the dominant market in europe was london. london was the largest financial center of the european union. now london is the largest of the uk with global emissions.
4:16 am
the reality is the listing goes and year to date, we have, i think, 28 ipos on euronext and 14 in london. the reality is that international listings come to euronext's market. in london, there is a specific situation which is the shrinking of the equity market. si dpgnify came in below expectations for the second quarter. it is maintaining its full-year guidance and cautious on europe and china for the second half of the year. still coming up on the show, we will talk tech and a.i. and the future with sir martin sorrell from s4 capital.
4:17 am
stay with us. we'll be right back.
4:18 am
this summer. snacking. just. got. serious. introducing new $3 footlong dippers. the world might not be ready for them... ...but at $3 a pop? your wallet definitely is.
4:19 am
french media group vivendi
4:20 am
hit a jump in the first quarter operating profit amid rising growth with the ad group. the earnings could addr respite after the stake fell by a quarter on thursday after slowing revenue. s4 capital is betting in the position on a.i. to drive growth this year. revenues declined 12% in the first quarter and the climb cautioned on advertising spend. i'm honored to be speaking with sir martin sorrell from s4. you are joining from us singapore. talk about the asian declines. what are they concerned about? is it geo politics? >> i think so. the big three is u.s. and china
4:21 am
relationship and russia and ukraine and iran. those are the three big ones. not for getting north korea as well. the net result of this is two things. one is guy graphical fragmentation. clients are not de-globalizing, necessarily, but looking at each market much more carefully than move. north and south america and middle east and asia are para paramount. europe lacks top-line growth and technology and a.i. which is the second point becomes even more important. in asia, the issue really is if you are big in china, do you want to be bigger given the taiwan risk? when i say bigger, if your sales in china are 10% or 15%, which is where it should be because china is 18 trillion out of 106 trillion for the world. if you are in that level, do you want bigger given the potential
4:22 am
risks? i think the u.s. and china relationship is imponderable. having spent time in beijing, i think the chinese government is waiting to see what happens in november and waiting for donald to see whether tariffs will be the order of the day. i don't think if kamala harris is successful, the policy will be radically different. doubtful we'll have tariffs at the level president trump is talking about, but a continuation of what we have seen with president biden which is de-risking. not de-coupling. the fundamental issue with china and america is they both see one another very differently. it's as one or two people have said to me on our visit, it's a structurally competitive relationship and difficult to navigate. both countries see themselves as brands and it is a marketing
4:23 am
problem. they see their brands differently. the chinese see themselves differently to the americans and the americans seem differently to what the china think. there has to be a change. chinese economy was weakened in q2. they have a lot of ammunition. they started to lower interest rates last week by a fraction. they have he scscoped to reduce interest rates. china is waiting for november and if trump wins and tariffs come in, they willing lower interest rates and fiscal spending at the center. local governments are heavily indebted. >> sir martin, let's talk about the big trend that is a.i. obviously, digital advertising was the trend of the past decade. now your industry is dealing with a.i. is it a blessing or is it a
4:24 am
curse? a blessing in the sense that clients are spending more efficiently in the sense that the fees might probably drop. >> no, there's two things with this. there are five area where is a.i. is affecting us. digitalization. to use your phase, a little bit of a curse. it is the time spent. we charge on time spent. second area of personalization of scale. huge opportunity. we're producing far more assets than our client wins in the auto sector is emblematic of this. producing at lower prices, but the volume is so great, that is very much a blessing. media planning and buying for us in the digital area, big opportunity for us. we don't have large number of people deployed in networks. general efficiency in big opportunity with aws and adobe
4:25 am
and outside broadcasting is an important aspect of that. the last, but not least, with the powerful blessing, to use your phrasing, the power of llms to deploy knowledge in organizations and make more efficient is super powerful. that second issue of improving efficiency in europe, which applies worldwide, north and south america and middle east and asia pacific and europe and africa. that's an enormously powerful tool in the future for improving not just the efficiency, but effectiveness, too. >> sir martin, i have to ask you though because we all read "the wall street journal" article saying your company could be bought out. are you open to sell given the fact the shares of the company have fallen quite a bit? >> that article and what you
4:26 am
miss out is we have control of our company through its structure. any decision of that nature is very much in our hands and not in anybody else's. >> what about succession? that's also something mentioned in the article. do you have a successor in place? >> we have a strong team. we've just simplified our structure and we rebr-branded t company from the original names. we have two service areas, two offerings and practices. both of those practices have very strong management teams. plenty of people there. >> all right. plenty of people. you're optimistic on the succession. sir martin, thank you for speaking with us. coming up on the show, uk
4:27 am
chancellor rachel reeves hits out at the former conservative government expected to reveal a black hole in the government finances. we'll have the details next. hey, can you speak french? who, me? i know a few words. if you're struggling to speak a new language, you should try babbel, a learning platform designed by over 200 language experts. it's like having your own personal language coach. babbel offers live classes with expert teachers for real world conversation practice. it's totally flexible so you can learn at your own pace and with the right practice and coaching, start speaking a new language in as little as three weeks. go to babble.com to claim your limited time offer today. what is cirkul? cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. cirkul is your frosted treat with a sweet kick of confidence. cirkul is the energy that gets you to the next level. cirkul is what you hope
4:28 am
for when life tosses lemons your way. cirkul is your gateway back home. so what is cirkul? it's your water, your way. cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul.com.
4:29 am
4:30 am
welcome to "street signs." i'm carolin roth and these are your headlines. european markets look to close on the front foot while the nasdaq is looking to pare back the losses with rotation out of tech. some glamour for the luxury sector with hermes sales growing in the second quarter giving the stock a nice boost. and essilor rising in the second quarter despite the slow growth in the america as meta take a stake in the company. after u.s. gdp exceeds expectations, the attention turns to the pce inflation deat head of the looming fed meeting
4:31 am
next week. good morning, everyone if you are just tuning in. the look at futures and they are looking bright the s&p 500 is bouncing back 39 points. dow jones set to add 88. the nasdaq is looking to add as well. the tech trade and rotation out of tech and the disappointing numbers from the likes of tesla. the stock is down 12%. i want to show you what tesla and meta are doing in pre-market trading. in fact, we're seeing some recovery here. tesla is seen up by a modest 2%. nvidia up 2%. all of the stocks down in sympathy with the rest of tesla and alphabet. meta is up 1.8%. i want to show you the
4:32 am
europe pmarkets. we are close to the two-month low after the reports this week. the cac 4040 today is bouncing back to the tune of 1%. the dax is 1% higher. we had a couple of earnings reports out here adding to the mixed nature of the earnings season so far. only the ibex 35 is slightly under water hear. whe when it comes to the fx markets, the dollar-yen is higher today. reversing the trend this week up 0.3%. we are seeing the yen at a three-month high going into the boj meeting. we'll talk with our guest in about 15 minutes time. sterling-dollar is 128.62 ahead of the boe meeting next week. meantime, three high-speed rail lines are closed in france after what the country described
4:33 am
o coordinated and criminal network acts. the network rail operator described it as a massive and malicious attack. that is breaking news we wanted to get to you. if you have travel connections, check them accordingly. and here in the uk, rachel reeves is promising to fix the mess in the country's finances and expecting to disclose a 20 billion pound shortfall which could signal tax hikes down the line. meantime, the labour government established the great british energy to boost independence. barclays argues that the uk can become the hub by boosting the
4:34 am
public and private capital available to the investors. let's get deeper into the topic with daniel from barclays. daniel, thank you so much for your time. what is the current public and private funding gap you are talking about? do you have a number? >> carolin, i think what we see when we speak to entrepreneurs and founders and growing clean tech companies is the company between the early stage and really developed stage. there's a lot of capital and a lot of dry powder. at the venture capital stage, it has grown four-fold. the scale up which is too big for venture capital, but not where the capital wants to deploy, that is missing and one of the key parts we honed in on the report we published this week which set out four steps the uk government to take to
4:35 am
close it. >> okay. let's go through these steps one by one. before we do that, i have a quick question here on the vc funding. climate tech had been hot the last couple of years. yes, it has been, but at the same time it comes in waves. we see all that hot money flowing into the a.i. trade. is climate tech, is it sort of at a disadvantage right now because of that? >> i mean, it's a great question. i don't know if i'd say it is a disadvantage. we're still seeing a lot of interest in the series-a stage. this is where we see a lot of good ideas coming out of uk and u.s. and european universities and entrepreneurs with a lot of passion and cutting-edge innovation. it is really the scaling up capital that is missing. that is wis what we hear from entrepreneurs.
4:36 am
that's the key message that comes back to us. >> all right. talk us through thefour steps. there are a lot of really good ideas in there. >> no, thank you. we try to suggest four practical recommendations. the first in the uk specifically. we have seen public institutions in the uk infrastructure bank and british bank and uk unnovation fund putting capital to work in scaling. 3.4 billion from the uk ib. british business bank put more than 500 million to work. that tends to be idle at this early stage or late stage. we suggested they really hone in and put a program in place at the 10 million to 25 million series-b space. the second thing is there is a lot of scope to leverage gran tee guarantees more. they are not on the hook to fund it, but using the more private
4:37 am
capital in the space. there is a lot of investment with the interest in this, but currently doesn't have the right skill set or too risky. the government can help that process. the recommendation of the collaboration across the insti institutions. there is a lot of great institutional knowledge and by pulling that together can have more impact. i think with the announcement we have seen from the government and british energy, both are talking about how do you develop an ecosystem and pull across the levers the government has into a bit of a more effective way of collaboration. >> daniel, at the risk of sounding too pessimistic here, is this too little too late because all of the tech companies from all over, not just the uk, they left europe. they went to the u.s. because of the i.r.a. >> yeah, i think it is a big
4:38 am
challenge. if you're scaling up companies and moving into the u.s., it is an easier place to raise large amounts of capital. i think the risk appetite there, if you like it a little bit stronger. when we talk to u.s. companies and i spent a lot of time in the u.s., this missing usissue is there with the i.r.a. and tax credits. this is a challenge all companies are trying to work around. inflation reduction act is one thing. i think in the uk, we still see a huge number of great companies come ing through. barclays has backed 40 million. we have sun swap which is decarbonizing cold storage in trucks or power in a.i. to optimize batteries. these are the companies that are coming through and can get scaled and really deliver world
4:39 am
class growth and jobs and exports. >> thank you so much for bringing that report to us. really interesting. daniel at barclays. let's talk u.s. politics because vice president kamala harris addressed the american federation of teachers convention slamming the policy agenda of former president donald trump branding it full of chaos and fear and hate. she contrasted her record with the former president and saying she was run for the oval office because of them. harris addressed the issue of potential book bans from republican lawmakers comparing it with her pledge to ban assault weapons. >> while you teach students about our nation's past, these extremists attack the freedom to learn and acknowledge our nation's true and full history. including book bans, book bans
4:40 am
in this year of our lord 2024. and on these last two issues -- on these last two issues -- just think about it. so, we want to ban assault weapons and they want to ban books. can you imagine? >> harris also met with israeli prime minister netanyahu reaffirming israel's right to defend itself, but urging netanyahu to bring an end to the war saying she would not be silent on the suffering in gaza. let's get more with brie jackson from nbc news. so far, she toed the party line on israel. on gaza, she is more vocal. she could really set herself apart on this. >> reporter: that's right. good morning, carolin. vice president harris said she had a frank discussion with
4:41 am
israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu yesterday. he met separately with president biden and vice president harris. now netanyahu's visit comes days after president biden ended his re-election bid and endorsed vice president harris. during the meeting, it was a key opportunity for harris who is the frontrunner for the democratic nomination to show she has the ability to serve as commander in chief and really take a chance and handle a significant issue that the biden administration has received criticism for its handling of even within the democrat party, democrats have criticized biden's handles of the israel and hamas war. yesterday was an opportunity for harris to take a stand and press prime minister netanyahu to reach a cease-fire deal and end the violence in gaza. >> brie, we had a couple more
4:42 am
polls out overnight. what do they tell us? >> reporter: well, polling does show that vice president harris is closing the gap when it comes to the race for the white house and when it comes to a head-to-head competition with former president trump. we do know she's made some gains and tremendous amount of enthusiasm. we are seeing the zoom calls that different organizations are holding and bringing together tens of thousands of people and raising record-breaking money for the vice president. so, we are expecting that soon she will receive a key endorsement from former president barack obama. that is expected to happen. there is a lot of energy behind the vice president and her candidacy for president. >> brie, thank you so much for that update. staying with u.s. politics,
4:43 am
former president trump said elon musk never told him he would get $45 million a month for the presidential campaign. he said somebody told him that was the case. trump's comments come days after the denied reports of the donations saying they were simply not true. although, he has given trump a strong endorsement. it sounds like a lot of he said this and she said this, whatever. a bit of a misunderstanding in that blooming bromance between the two gentlemen. coming up on the show, pce numbers are expected out of the u.s. today. we will discuss that key metric after a short break. don't go away.
4:44 am
4:45 am
what is cirkul? cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. cirkul is your frosted treat with a sweet kick of confidence. cirkul is the effortless energy that gets you in the zone. cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul.com. when we're young, we're told anything is possible... ...but only a few of us go out and prove it. witness the greatness of anna hall on a connection worthy of gold: xfinity mobile. only xfinity gives you the most powerful mobile wifi network,
4:46 am
with speeds up to a gig in millions of locations. and right now, xfinity internet customers can buy one unlimited line and get one free for a year. get the fastest connection to paris with xfinity. well lineage shares closed higher after the ipo this year. the storage warehouse raised $4.4 billion in the offering implying $18 billion for the
4:47 am
four-time disruptor 50 firm. openai launches a searchgpt search engine which will allow you to search in an intuitive way and ask follow-up questions. sam altman will integrate it into the chatgpt tool. a quick check of futures. bouncing back after more weakness in yesterday's trading session. the s&p 500 adding on 40 points. the dow jones adding 189 poibnt. the s&p and nasdaq posted the sixth negative session in seven. u.s. second quarter gdp grew 2.8% on the year. well ahead of the 2.1% the investors were expecting.
4:48 am
the core pce price index rose 2.9% ahead of estimates, but well down on the 3.7% reading in q1. let's talk about that because u.s. inflation is expected to continue the downward trajectory in the month of june and moderated by falling gas prices. overall, core pce is expected to rise 2% on the year and the overall reading is seen ri rising .08 basis points on the month. the fed is expected to keep rates on hold. let's talk about this with jeffery yu at bny mellon. >> the fed should be happy with the direction of travel and plat reading. any downside surprise, i think,
4:49 am
some of the trades are suggesting that even a cut next week they might tactically be brought back on the table and we think september is a more likely scenario. >> your base case is the first fed cut to come in september. you talked about the potential for down side surprise. do you think that is likely the markets are pricing in a cut as early as next week? >> i think they want that insurance. it is all about insurance policies across asset classes. let's see what the fed is talking about. this is interesting. canada and u.s. are different. what is in canada and eurozone and uk, you can have inflation start to come off. certify obviouses inflation dr services inflation. what do you take care of? look at headline at 2% or lower. that really is the struggle for central banks around the world.
4:50 am
>> it is a trstruggle. for the u.s. and fed, it has been inflation. that really bring was it a very long lag. >> some volatility in the numbers is what we are looking at as well. taking back what the fed has seen of late. the other issue is timing. the timing for the fed given the calendar ahead, i think they are heading into september and that is probably the best opportunity for them to step ahead. they want to step away from the noise right now. there's data noise. noise that markets are attune to right now. the overall travel compared to three months ago is easing. >> can we talk about the gdp number yesterday? that blew it out of the water. 2.8% annual ized.
4:51 am
the strength of the consumer and i'm confused here. we saw the banks reporting of the weaker consumer. some consumer goods companies saying consumers are trading down. >> car companies and airlines as well with the earnings reports and across the world, not just the u.s. it goes back to wages. if wages are rising, it is not 7% or 8% and gdp is dominated by gdp spending. those were limited liabilities and services that debt and locked into mortgages and fixed-rate mortgages from before the recent rate hikes. that means the cash flow is strong. if you counter the lesser extent in uk, the share of debt services and cash flow is relatively low. if they want to spend, they can spend. given equities, that where's things come off.
4:52 am
>> is there a sense at some point the news, the bad news about the consumer, gets overwhelming and the market sees this as bad news once again? bad news is bad news. >> absolutely. in the past, bad news is good news because the fed will not hike rates or we get to a soft landing. now, if we are talking about a cut next week, that hard-landing scenario will insure. so far, we don't think that will be the case. it's good to have the markets react rather than policy stimulus. >> how much volatility do you expect to see ? now we are pricing in 66 basis points or two or three cuts. that has moved around quite a bit. volatility, is that here to stay? >> we had so many regime shifts in the fed over the last three months. i think markets need to get to the new normal.
4:53 am
international dynamics will come through as well. the dollar-yen is largely a japan story. that impacts the u.s., too, given how confirmed, the intervening is affecting the treasury market as well. the flow data showing volatility in cross border demand. it is quite negative right now because they are sensitive to yields. i think that volatility is going to be here to stay. not just this year, but heading into the next. >> the quick check of dollar-yen. 154.24. a lot of strength in the yen throughout the course of the week. it's at a three-month high. we saw the tokyo prices coming in stronger this morning. all of that should potentially give the boj a little bit of room. do you think they will hike next week? >> i think hiking rates is probably off the table. >> off the table? >> it's off the table insofar as
4:54 am
if they look at the overall sense of where the economy is heading. the comprehensive sense of the economy. you would never roll any tightening move out. how do you manifest that and in particular, if you look at where the yen has gone right now, yen strength on the forward looking basis can actually start to bring down forward looking inflation as well. i prefer them to actually move more aggressively on qqe. the hawkish on future policy, the policy direction, but in this kind of environment and they will have a look at the fed as well to see if they can narrow the differentials. >> geoffery yu, thank you. to close out the week on "street signs," a quick check on the market. the ftse 100 up 0.9%. we had a rebound in some of the mining stocks which have seen a
4:55 am
weakness earlier this week. the cac 40 is up 0.9%. all of the choppinesses coming from the luxury sectior. on balance for the stoxx 600, we are trading close to two-month lows on track for the second week of losses. we had all of these earnings come through and they were very, very mixed. some surprises to the up and down side. i want to show you what the markets have done over the course of the week. the cac 40, as i mentioned before, has been heavily impacted by the luxury names. off 0.5% for the week. the ftse 100 is up 0.2%. the ftse mib bearing the brunt of losses down 1%. the dax for the week is higher to the tune of 0.9%. the ifo index and we are seeing further contraction for the german economy and this
4:56 am
particular economy painted a very bleak picture. let's look at the u.s. markets week to date. what we saw here is selling in the tech space. nasdaq off 3%. why? tesla, alphabet are disappointing investors. s&p 500 off almost 2% this week and the dow jones losing. we are seeing bounce back. the s&p 500 is higher to the tune of 43 points. the dow jones could add on 200 points. the nasdaq seen up by 197. that's it for today's show. i'm carolin roth. see you next week. bye-bye. it's hard to run a business on your own. make it easier on yourself. with shopify, you have everything you need to sell online and in person. you
4:57 am
can have your inventory, payments, and customers in sync across all the places you sell. it doesn't have to be lonely at the top. join the millions to finding success on their own terms. start your journey with a free trial today. step one be terrible. step two be slightly less terrible. ugh. ah! come on.
4:58 am
step three. que gusto conocerte por fin discover that practice doesn't make perfect. practice makes progress. hola tio! listo para improvisad. espanol. muy bien. vamos. babble. every step is a step in the right direction. with absorbine pro, pain won't hold you back from your passions. it's the only solution with two max-strength anesthetics to deliver the strongest numbing pain relief available. so, do your thing like a pro, pain-free.
4:59 am
absorbine pro.
5:00 am
it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. i'm frank holland and here is your "five@5." wall street on track for a multiweek losing streak as the rotation out of tech is alive and well. and the market moving report before the opening bell. we get pce. former fed vice chair roger ferguson is here weighing in. too little too late. blasts southwest for the shakeup and headline making plans to end open seating. and president trump is rea

45 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on