period of time. this continue to grow as the markets get more stable, more mature. that will enable more people to come in more efficiently. >> mike belshe, thanks for joining us. we'll be watching the conference. next week is a busy week. rest up this weekend, we had all the major averages finish higher. that's going to do it for us here at "overtime." "fast money" begins right now. ♪ live in the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." big tech's make or break moment after a rough week for the mag seven, the next big earnings test is right around the corner. will next week's report thes confirm the cracks we started to see in the trade, or will they provide the boost or group needs? and ready set cut, we are counting down to the fed's next meeting. the markets broadly expect the central bank is getting ready to cut rates. plus, regional banks rocket to levels not seen since the

collapse of silicon valley bank. bitcoin resumes its march higher and an fad warning has shares of hims and hers shedding some weight. i'm melissa lee coming to you live. on the desk, tim seymour, and julie beal, we start off with what might be the most critical week for the big tech trade this earnings season. microsoft, meta, apple and amazon headlining the calendar next week. $10 trillion worth of market cap on deck to report. the earnings come after the first two mag seven reports failed to impress investors. alphabet and tesla's numbers not only hit their stocks, but sent the entire market to their worst day in almost two years, raising the fears that the once red hot ai trade might be broken. so will next week's results confirm those fears or give investors the green light to go all in on the trade? bonawyn, how are you feeling going into next week? >> a little nervous as someone who is a tech investor. with that said, i really think there's a large difference

between tesla and alphabet's earnings. tesla essentially missed on every metric. google essentially said, listen, we're going to continue and ramp up our capex spending and if you believe the ai narrative, you are to expect there to be accelerated capex spending. i don't think that necessarily detracts from the story. i do think you are seeing that rotation out of higher multiple, you know, high flyers into more under owned, more value-orr yented stocks. i do think if you're going to take that step down, one, in quality, and two, in p/e multiple, that tends to mean that you're likely bearish the market. so i just don't think that you can have the rotation and maintain a bullish posture, and that's the reason why i've been saying, listen, i think that if you believe this rotation has some legs, you likely want to own volatility here as we start to rotate into more questionable pockets of the market. >> that down day that we were citing, tim, everything got sold off. and yes, the russell 2000, for instance, one of the places that

was really the beneficiary of that rotation that we have been seeing going on also sold off, although relatively speaking to the s&p 500 less so. but there was no safety anywhere in that market. what is a narrative, do you think, that fed into that selloff? is it the ai trade is broken, or is it that growth is possibly in jeopardy and the ai trade is just sort of evidence of that? >> i think it's a question of over billed. it's not a question of maybe the long-term impact and, if you look at microsoft as an example, the cloud transformation in their business is extraordinary. reading a note from, i want to footnote them correctly, where they talked about roughly 10% in terms of cloud business in 2016. the expectation especially with ai add in, it's going to be 63% by 2026. so the question is, i think we've been wrestling with how much capex, how much over build, how much has been priced in, and if you look at the mega cap tech

stocks, they started selling off, and the relative under performance, the rotation started on that cpi number. the dynamic -- in other words, two weeks ago we get everything the market's looking for in terms of a fed supportive cut environment, cpi, and since that point the mega cap techs have sold off. i think there's a couple of different reasons for it. but most importantly, they are the drivers to the overall market, and if you look at the technicals at microsoft and mon amazon and google, i would say they're all clinging to the 100 day here. apple's a little better supported. so i think microsoft's the most important name next week to kind of debate that dynamic. have we over built? have we over price instead versus, look, there's no question about the cloud transformation going on there and in other places. it's power. steve eisman said yesterday, hey, whatever happens in the short-term, the long run is very strong here, and i agree with that. >> yeah, you can agree with that, but that could mean still

paying in the short-term. julie, what are you bracing for? especially as microsoft and amazon are just about in correction territory right now. maybe the setup is not too bad going into their earnings reports next week. >> yeah, i think what i want to hear is an understanding, a more clear understanding of how the capex spend that they're cr creating and that they're n investing in is going to lead to earnings. we don't have a lot of clarity on the business models around that. we have spent something on the order of 600 billion in capex, and we have, i don't know, 10 billion in revenue total to show for it, and i think until that gap is clarified, it's really, really hard to get enthusiastic when the multiples are high in the short-term. i think in the long-term tim's right, the outlook should be pretty positive, but there can be bumps along the way. as we get this rotation coming in to short cap, i think that's really a function of the animal spirits of a lot of managers lagging their indexes just like they did last year trying to find any kind of inflection point to rotate into so that they can try to catch up. >> it seems almost unfair,

karen, to expect these guys to have roi on their investments in ai so quickly. do you think that investors were all bulled up when they announced a boost, a huge bump in capex smpend on ai last quarter, the quarter before and expected a clear road to, you know, a return in a quarter? >> i think that's fair to say, but i also think that -- so we're looking at the microsoft, where's the revenue of ai, but i think there's a lot of other places to look for what is the value of ai in terms of businesses running more efficiently, not necessarily that they're charging, you know, a co-pilot kind of fee, which a great kind of fee. that's great for microsoft. so to me, the ai story is still very much intact. it's not only a revenue story. it's a cost savings story as well, and i don't think we really focused so much on that because it's really early stages for that. but i think just as nvidia went

from 118 to 140 on basically nothing, it's not crazy that it would come back down to right around that same level, give or take. i still think we're early in ai but i don't think the stocks will track just a smooth linear, you know, up and to the right, a long-term holder, but it's very bumpy for sure. this is, you know, one of the bigger drawdowns i've had in the last, i don't know, ten days or so. but to me, i look at a valuation of an alphabet and the reaction to me seems so overdone for what is not a high multiple stock. so i'm not shaken from alphabet here at all. >> yeah, i think karen brings up a very good point. it just seems like over selling. this wasn't a miss here. and again, if you are buying into this ai narrative, you are expecting there to be caps,

which is why we lean so heavily in nvidia. in terms of volatility, if you juxtapose that, do you want to really be in names that are just performing or essentially reaching back to previous water marks or are you looking to deploy capital where we are seeing growth. if we're calling for 10 to 11% eps growth across the board skprt s&p and you're looking at a name like 3m that are saying they're going to grow 1% per annum for the foreseeable future, i think that rotation just like the google move seems to be a bit overdone. julie makes another good point in terms of the rotation in terms of why. that speaks to the sentiment why you're seeing a rush into these names. the fed posturing ask a line for us to have maybe 50, at max 75 basis points at least what's priced in this year, that doesn't set up for you to say this is early i thinnnings of ae creation story into old industry type of names. >> the point you made in terms of do you want to be invested in

the areas that have the growth. i get that sentiment, but at the same time the google store vi showing us if investors are questionable if that growth is there. so the whole part. the whole problem with the market at this point is that we don't know what that next water mark is because that growth story may be in jeopardy. if you don't believe it's in jeopardy, that's one thing, but there are plenty of people who are worried about that. >> well, they're worried about them in the short-term. again, i think it's very hard. i mean, again, the only name that i can really point to with concrete numbers in terms of how they are actually monetizing ai is nvidia, what you have seen is them raise up to some 24, $25 billion and continue to raise those guidance. what i'm saying is i am a believer that over the long-term, that tends to translate into these other names. in the short-term, to say that you're expecting some immediate roi on however many billion dollars of spend that we've had over the past two years in capex seems to be, you know, just a little bit myopic in view.

>> right, and we've seen from google in comments from the ceo, tim, that they are going to spend. they're going to spend no matter what. the risk is under spending, not over spending at this point. so why is the picks and shovel trade, why is that coming under scrutiny as well? >> i just -- i think the difference between google and microsoft is people feel like microsoft will be taking market share and google could be losing it. either way it's all your time line for investment. there's a lot of different investors that watch this network and our show. if you're a trader, i get it. if you're a long-term investor, this is everythinged up. you wanted a pullback. you wanted markets to obviously see some rotation and give you an opportunity to grab this. the fact that we saw upgrades this week of microsoft on multiple. a set of 33, let's go 34 times again on this cloud mix, that's what i think the investor community is debating. there's no question google has been held as kind of the are prove me story in terms of what they're going to do in terms of

where they could have market share encroached upon in their core business, and microsoft's obviously been taking share across that and discussed the cloud. so that's the setup here, i think, for broader markets getting back to, you know, the week that was, this rotation is something that's interesting because the s&p value, the equal weighted, it's really come all the way back, but there are other parts of the economy -- and we're going to talk about the consumer. we've been talking about discretionary where i thought it was as ugly of a week as you could have expected, and i would be selling bounces we got today in your deckers and in your crocs and in some of these names. i think what we're learning from the economy is the consumer is not in the greatest spot, so it gets you back to the mega cap tech stocks where people feel comfortable. >> broad markets rallying to end the week with the dow jumping more than 650 points. the s&p and nasdaq up more than a percent, after the fed's preferred inflation gauge showed a deceleration in june. yesterday we got stronger than

expected data on gdp growth. how does this all factor in for the fed, which is the other big event for the week. let's bring in peter boockvar who is here on set. how does this market sell off, how does the fed factor into the market next week? >> i think the market is up so much already, jay powell isn't paying attention. jay powell is worried on -- not worried, focused on tempering inflation through the next couple of years. i say the next couple of years because he leaves in early 2026. he doesn't care whether the s&p 500 is at 5,300 or 4,500. he wants inflation going down to its 2% target, while keeping unemployment from not going much further higher. >> in terms of how the economic data stack up to what we're seeing out of earnings season, you put out a note, you look under the hood and you're not getting good data points from companies. how do you parse that out? >> i really think that all this government spending is having

such a die lutive impact on the economy. it's not just directly, but all the workers that are working on building it, they have money. they're going out for dinner. they're doing this. they're doing that. but if you look at what corporate america has to say, s see a 1 to 1 1/2 economy. it's extraordinarily mixed. it's very uneven, and i don't see -- i don't think the 2.8% gdp number really is reflective of what we're seeing. i think the 1.5, maybe 2 best, but the economy's very uneven right now. >> peter, thanks so much for being here. you mentioned like unevenness in the economy and having a hard time kind of reading through in terms of economic data. can you speak to the juxtaposition that we've seen between q1 economic data and q2 data and how you might reconcile that in terms of trying to get a read through on what the next fed move might be? >> i'll average both and gdp growth was about 2%. now, going -- looking at the second half of the year, if the unemployment rate continues to

tick higher, then that 2% can get into the 1s, and we debate recession. a 1ish percent economy almost feels like there's very little growth. f again, you run through what corporate america has to say. if i had a dollar for every ceo that said that, not just the current quarter but for the past couple of quarters. >> you wouldn't be able to buy much because of inflation. >> that is true. >> tim, you have a question? >> yeah, peter, great to have you on. sorry i'm missing you in person. let's talk asset allocation. you're in the middle of that as well frand the fixed income markets are fascinating right now. there's some comfort on pushing out on duration. we have some sense that not only do we see the short end coming in, but possibly the long end. talk about this -- and i know how you feel about the deficit and what it means possibly for treasury yields in medium to lodge longer terms. are you comfortable allocating more money to fixed, and where

you think the interest rates are short to medium term? >> on the fixed income side for the last couple of years, i've only been comfortable buying the short end. i think we can get this strange dynamic where the fed is cutting short-term interest rates but long-term interest rates either stay where they are or go even higher. if you're a holder of the ten-year, and you're saying, okay, powell's knees are fwgettg soft. yeah, i see the economy moderating, inflation's moderating, but i don't want my central bank to get soft. i don't think the ten-year is going to travel the trajectory that we're used to. where the short-term rates fall, long-term rates fall. i think we're going to see further steepening in this yield curve and potentialfuly in a be way where long rates go up and short-term rates actually fall. >> peter, i'm curious your thoughts, you know, gdp to the deficit right now is at a level that you would expect with 7% unemployment, not 4 like we're at and the consumer has really spent down their own cushions.

neither balance sheet has really got a lot of cushion for any economic weakness. if there were a shock to the economy, are you more concerned about the consumer or how the government can interact? >> well, it's certainly both because if the consumers start to lose their jobs, that's less taxes that are going to the federal government, and that $2 trillion deficit becomes a $3 trillion deficit, and instead of 6 to 7% of gdp, it's 10 to 12% of gdp. then you need to start talking about what does that mean for the u.s. dollar? let's just say the fed's cutting. the u.s. dollar starts to weaken, ten-year yield goes to 5%. these are things we need to think about as possible scenarios where we're in a different environment thanwe were in the decades prior to 2022 in terms of inflation, interest rates and how the fed's going to respond. >> peter, we've got to leave it here. good sto see you. peter boockvar. >> karen, what are you thinking about the fed? i know on the conference call

today you asked what are the odds of a fed cut in july next week, and the odds at that time this afternoon were 5%. what's in your mind? what was in your mind when you were asking that question? >> just that, well, the number today maybe made it a little less likely, but maybe they go now. i do think they definitely go in september, but you know, 50 is potentially in the cards. i don't think they'll end up doing that, but i was just wondering what sort of -- what is the gauge on how anxious the fed is to do something. it doesn't matter for the election. are they trying not to be political, i don't know. but i think -- i think they got everything they wanted. i think september is a good time for them to start cutting. >> yeah, all right. coming up, a deep dive into this summer's luxury bus. lvmh, how are traders seeing it playing out. we are digging in on how the options market is setting up

ahead of next week's earnings. how to trade one big chip name that has been lagging behind in the ai race right after this. >> announcer: this is "fast money" with melissa lee right here on cnbc. oh, thank you so much i couldn't have done it without you. honestly, i don't do a whole lot here. i'm really just here for the at&t internet, it's super-fast so, any pre-launch concerns? what if nobody buys them? that's mean or, what if everybody buys them? oh, i hadn't thought of that that's probably not gonna happen can we handle that kind of traffic? the network can handle it! i downloaded eight hours of true crime stories just during our last video call i'm learning a lot

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welcome back to "fast money." luxury retailer lvmh clawing back some of its losses but closing in the red after tuesday's disappointing earnings report. the ceo is optimistic on the state of high end spending. here's what he said this morning in an scexclusive interview on cnbc. >> i am still quite optimistic long-term because the reason why we have been successful and many of our competitors, we are successful during the last 30 years is the growth in buying power in the world, and the trend will continue. >> long-term it may look great, karen, but in the short-term what's your take? because it seems like the aspirational customer as opposed to those who are i guess firmly

rich, the aspirational customer is having some difficulty in north america specifically. >> yeah, well, actually aspirational china too also really having a lot of trouble. that's sort of been the weakest spot for all of them. i mean, i think that the pull forward from the pandemic was more pronounced than it seemed at first, and so i think that's sort of still receding, but i mean, there are an extraordinary number of very rich people around the world, and to be mai, louis vuitton traded down, the expectations were low. they came in at just about -- just north of flag, we talk about this phenomenon, things connin con continuing to go down on the same news. that was happening again and again, you had burberry and hugo boss. you can see airhermes, and then

louis vuitton, and burberry and hugo boss. that was a disaster twice. earlier in the year they said we have a disaster at gucci. they were absolutely right about that. it was a little bit of an understatement perhaps. kerring actually stopped going down. i think it should still go down, but i'm long obviously started out great in the year, it's not now, but i am very optimistic even with this quarter, 24% margins, operating margins. that is tremendous business. so staying long with bernard. >> and the lvmh is in your acronym. you've been worried about the consumer for a long time. here we do have a lot of different data points, you know, for different income cohorts that indicate that there might

be some trouble. how are you feeling now compared to before? >> yeah, i think it really -- it solidifies my belief that, you know, for the ultrahigh end consumer, the hermes shopper who is totally okay spending $10,000 for a handbag, no problem, is very different than the vuitton customer who's pushing themselves up to a $1,000 handbag made of canvas. it's just not the same shopper at all. that ultrahigh end consumer is benefitting from the higher interest rates. they benefitted from initially low interest rates in terms of their asset pricing, and now they're enjoying high interest rates in terms of generating returns from that. they are well protected. everyone else it's much more challenging and at kerring it's really a function of execution. what we saw at gucci was a function of losing really great designer talent, and it's really hard to replace that. there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. >> more on what to expect from next week's big tech earnings,

what the chip are hoping to hear about the ai trade and how options are priming for the results. next. plus, we're rocking with the regionals, regional banks hitting their highest levels in over a year as investors make big moves amid the market's latest rotation. can this group keep on ripping higher? you're watching "fast money" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. (intercom) t minus 10... (janet) so much space! that open kitchen! (tanya) ...definitely the one! (ethan) but how can you sell your house when we're stuck on a space station for months???!!! (brian) opendoor gives you the flexibility to sell and buy on your timeline. (janet) nice! (intercom) flightdeck, see you at the house warming.

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welcome back to "fast money." stocks surging today thanks to a tame inflation print before the bell. the dow gaining nearly 2%. the s&p and the nasdaq rebounding from two-day losing streaks. though down for the week. crypto bouncing back, bitcoin jumping more than $3,000 to climb within striking distance of $678,000. the rally boosting shares of coinbase as well. shares of hims and hers dropping after the fda warned about potential dosing errors in compounded glp 1 drugs. this stock got a huge boost when it announced plans to sell compounded glp 1s. bitcoin, you're in this across the board. many different coins. bitcoin 2024 is a huge headline, donald trump's going to speak

there. we talked about this last friday. was that all baked in? >> i'm not sure it's all baked in, and so much of the supply -- so much of the supply/demand dynamics now with the having and then also just this is a massive momentum trade. you see days where the coin is down 4 to 7%, and days where that kind of retraces. so i think you just need to ride the momentum here. we're all talking about this rotation out of tech, out of high flyers into value. how about rotation out of tech into alt coins? >> oh, so that's a safe haven in your view, relatively safe. >> at least it provides some type of diversification. >> yeah. tim, bitcoin or gold? or both? >> i think you know -- well, look, bitcoin's digital gold. i own both, but i definitely prefer gold here. i just think the thing s that we're talking about, peter boockvar outlined a bunch of reasons why gold should be going higher. it's weakening dollar dynamics, with inflation under control, the fed taking their foot off

the gas in terms of pushing hard against inflation. i think gold is a -- i said this, you know, many times, it's one of the best 20-year charts you're ever going to find. why won't it be the best 20 year chart with the next 20 years. you don't have to go hard into this trade now, but you should be adding gold on weakness because the dynamics for gold go higher. >> all right, coming up, rip roaring regionals, the kre closing out a monster week of gains and erasing their losses since a silicon valley collapse. just how much farther can this trade run. we'll get some answers next. chip stocks took a beating on the back of this week's earnings, what do they want to hear from the names reporting next week. we'll talk to one top chip analyst to get his thoughts. more "fast money" in two. >> announcer: missed a most of "fast," catch us anytime on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this. ♪

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welcome back to "fast money." semi stocks seem to struggle on the heels of the first big tech earnings report. the hitting its lowest level in more than two months yesterday but with more mega caps set to detail their plans and capex spending next week, what should

chip investors be watching in those reports. let's bring in bernstein's stacy raskin. great to see you. >> good to be here, thanks. >> what was it specifically in your view out of alphabet's report that got nvidia and other chip investors nervous? >> yeah, it was the capex, and the capex was good, but they didn't raise it. the quarter came in a little higher than what they had suggested and they said it would sort of sustain at some very high levels through the year, but they didn't raise it. that hit some of the ai stocks, and the broader space was getting hit. most of the reports haven't been very good, so that's kind of -- you know, it has consequences. >>. so in terms of microsoft, amazon next week, is it key that they actually raise c capex at this point, or has that sort of concern been erased with the selloff we saw this week? >> certainly would be nice if they did. we're still kind of early in the year. they just raised really big recently. we probably got some time as we go through the year. but obviously it would be

helpful. i don't know if we're going to get it yet, thant's all. >> sthanks so much for being here. as you look forward to next week, what do you think is the larger story, more economic data overhang or tech stocks delivering on what have been high expectations? >> i don't know. i mean, i focus on the stocks themselves, the semiconductor stocks and the expectations, and that's clearly what i'll be looking at, like the macro data points and everything are what they are. bl broadly for the space, though, kind of what we've been seeing in general, we've had a number of the analog stocks and some of the equipment stocks go this week. most of the analogs they were exposed to industrial and auto, and people were hoping for recovery in the back half. most of those markets don't look super. semi caps have been mixed. we had some of the u.s. guys went back. we've got lam research goes next week, and in my coverage, i've got intel and amd those are

probably the two people we're paying most attention to as we go there. they've got different things people will be looking at for each of them. amd will be around the ai guide. intel's got all kinds of stuff that's going on there, pcs and servers and, you know, the little bit of ai that they have, and margins and just the broader foundry strategy and the process road map, intel's juggling a lot of balls right now. >> tim. >> stacy, it's tim, so i'd like to maybe drill a little deeper there, though, because we really are seeing within those three names significant divergence. i get why intel is down 40% this year, and i get why nvidia is up 140, but amd is down 5% on the year, and again, from an analyst's perspective, explain this to me. they are supposed to be a clear number two. they have lagged significantly at a time when the markets were even more ebullient on semis. break that down real quick.

>> in general all of the ai stocks recently have had pressure just because expectations have been very high, and the numbers have gotten large and people are starting to think through what is this money going to get spent on and what's the return. amd has been a little bill interesting, though. they have -- you know, they are the number two, you know, to some -- to nvidia and some of the other players in the space in data center gpus. expectations have gone up a lot. you know, the company's been sort of raising their ai guidance through the year. consensus expectations are already quite a bit above that. i think there's a concern that while we probably will get a raise to that outlook, it likely will not be enough to cause expectations to go up. in the near-term with amd, there's been some worries about potential issues with their products. there's been concerns around their high bandwidth memory they use, they buy from samsung mostly. is that having issues, is it causing order pushouts and cancellations. we'll find out better next week when they report.

those have been some concerns in recent weeks that have been weighing on the stock and taking it down probably a little worse than maybe even some of the other ai stocks that are there. >> karen. >> yeah, hi, stacy, thanks for being on. so turning to nvidia for a minute, so in their last quarter talking about black well being there sooner than people thought, that seemed to be part of the big upside surprise. do you think they need to just continue to deliver catalysts like that? or what are you expecting sort of big picture from them? >> yeah, yeah. no, so the worry going into last quarter was, you know, a transition air pocket. they're moving to blackwell and people were worried about an air pocket. last quarter at least they kind of took that off the table. they suggest that had hopper's demand was so strong and we would have material amounts of blackwell as we got into the end of the year. i don't know that i'm expecting to hear anything different than that. clearly again expectations are high, and the numbers need to go up. i agree that the numbers will be fine.

although i always joke, like i think you can hand me the earnings report right now. but yeah, i think in general the overall environment for ai spending, it's the one area actually that still looks very, very robust. i know everybody's worried about sustainability. i understand those worries broadly. i don't think the time to worry is just yet. >> stacy, always great to speak with you. thank you. >> you bet. >> stacy rasgon of bernstein. i was going to ask that question of you, julie. it didn't sound like there were many catalysts to the upside. they've already raised the bar in terms of what to look for. they said we're fg to make a lot of blackwell revenue this year. what else do you want them to say at this point? >> that's the thing is they have to say a lot of p graeat things in order to justify that valuation. the concern i have with nvidia is the concern i always have with semiconductors, that's customer concentration. if 22% of your revenue is coming from a single client, microsoft

and five people on their board of directors say can we cut back on our capex a little bit, and suddenly the arms race isn't as robust as we are expecting across these five or six hyperscalers, that changes the business model dramatically. that's the one kind of concern that i have. every quarter they prove me wrong, and i think there's a lot of growth left in front of them, but that is kind of for me an ongoing concern. >> for more on how the options market is bracing for amd earnings next week, let's bring in optimize advisers mike khouw. what are you looking at here? >> yeah, so the options market has been generally pretty optimistic on amd, calls have outpaced puts 2 to 1 on average over the last 20 trading days. the options market is implying a move of over 8% after they report. that's a lot but also in line with the historical average, which is over 7%. they've disappointed over the last two quarters, and you know, this one topped out in early march well before nvidia topped out, and most of the street is pretty bullish along with the

options market, except for stacy. his price target is 140, right where the stock closed today. if you own this stock and you're hoping for a rebounded, you still ought to think about hedging. i was looking at the august 135 put spread, a payoff of about 3 to 1 in the chance that they don't actually beat all of these high expectations. >> tim in your view in an environment where hyperscalers may not be necessarily raising capex a lot, is that a reason to be in nvidia, or is that the exact reason why you don't want to be in nvidia? >> i think you're going to have an opportunity to own nvidia on both sides of this. i think ultimately the commitment and the leadership out of nvidia and the entire platform and the software around it is the reason why we're putting the multiple on the stock. the earnings growth that's tripled is something that's not going to grow this fast, but the multiple is certainly hardly demanding, again, relative to some other folks.

i do think that we are this week assessing the over billed, and where hyperscalers may have to pull back. certainly those stocks are really suffering here. the long-term thesis isn't changing at all, and right now nvidia is not that expensive of a company. it's certainly very far out in front, and i don't see why you wouldn't continue to see them outperform. >> yes, i think to answer your question, that would be the concern. that would be the argument as to why you wouldn't want to own them, a pull back in capex. to tim's point, he took the words out of my mouth. i really think essentially what they are building likening it to apple's service business is the reason to tedefend the stock, a i do think you would want to buy into some pullbacks. >> mike, good to see you. thank you. regional round trip, back before where it was before the collapse of silicon valley bank last year. the next move for the group straight ahead. and taking the ulhealth of e

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rn : welcome wak to "fast money." let's get to our chart of the

week. while this year's megacap winners struggled this week, it is now trading at its highest level since march 7th, 2023. that was the day before the collapse of silicon valley bank. so what does this mean for the bank trade? karen. we're back. banks are back, right? >> they are back. i think they never left, but okay, i understand that kre did l leave for a while. if you had looked back at that march 10th or whenever that was that silicon valley bank happened and there was obviously the banking part of the crisis with a deposit run, that obviously has really really slowed to not so relevant anymore, and then commercial real estate was very big, and it's still very big, but interest rates are coming the right way, so that's helpful. the last one is if you had said 18 months from the silicon valley bank collapse time, the consumer would still be hanging in there, i think people would

have been surprised, and the gdp was still where it is now. so all of those things together, and they probably way over reacted in the depths of the downturn. >> yeah, julie. >> makes sense to me that they're back where they were. >> julie. >> yeah, i completely agree with karen. you know, i think this is a function of we're kind of correcting back into a place where it makes sense. financials in small cap are not supposed to kind of have trough earnings until next quarter, third quarter, and so i think it's still an outstanding question. i think the alba trosz on the group overall is what is in your personal real estate portfolio. this is where it really pays to understand each bank's regional and local market. some of them are going to be fine, and some of them for sure are going to have problems. even as rates decline, it's not going to be fast enough i think in order for people to be able to refinance meaningfully. coming up, health care key issue in this year's presidential election, health care investing could be in for a major shake-up depending on who

wins. we'll sit down with a venture capitalist who thinks november could be a game anfochger r the biotech space no matter who wins. that's next.

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loved names, as rotate out of high fliers. bristol-myers leaving the group up 11% after its earnings, its best day in more than two decades, and pfizer, tim and karen's pfizer also continuing its rebound of more than 3% in the session and 22% from the lows of the year. with investors broadening their health care exposure, how could the elections impact the investing thesis? lits bring in portal innovation's founder and ceo john flavin with more e.. we don't innesnecessarily know about harris's policy. >> i think we can expect if hair kis comes in as president, there will be a continuation of the biden/harris health care stance. what does that mean? i mean, from the standpoint of the democratic focus, that often means there will be continued investment into nih funding, which will push more dollars into innovation. under biden's watch, we brought

in investing billions of dollars into early stage research to try to commercialize. so i think that will probably continue. the cancer moon shot, all those kinds of things will benefit next generation of those types of drugs. when it comes to regulations, especially when you look at big pharma, two key regulations, you know, that have been a focal point of the administration were around the inflation reduction act, which brought in price controls. i think pharma's adjusting to that, and that's why i think you're starting to see some of these stocks come back into favor. the other is ftc, a tight ftc has made it difficult for m&a transactions. those big deals have gotten done, but they've been with grea greater ardor. >> tim, you got a question? >> welcome. i guess my question is really around also the headlines around medicare and negotiations and where we actually believe that this is the space that, frankly, the ugliness that comes in the

headlines is a lot scarier than the reality of what they can do in the short run. >> yeah, that's right, and i think that, you know, the two big fears that were on the table were the way that price controls are headlined become a lot more focused around what type of molecule do you want to bring to the marketplace. traditional drugs have been known as small molecules. the chemical drugs we've used for the greater part of the last century. the others are these large mol molecule, gene therapies and things like that. i think you're starting to see companies put more towards the latter because you have a longer window where you don't have to be entering into exclusivity and price control issues as you do with small molecule therapeutics. i think pharma is living with it. they're finding a way through it, and there's still an opportunity for strong growth, especially with the scientific breakthroughs we're seeing. >> when it comes to a harris administration, it sounds like you think it's great for innovation, which is great for

guys like you who are looking for innovative companies. but at the same time, the exits could be a lot more difficult because if it's harder to sell your company to a big company, then that eliminates possibly one major avenue to exit your investments. so how do you sort of view it overall? >> i think, you know, overall when you look at it, those deals are getting done. they're just taking longer to take place. so i think that can still be the exit and the typical path would be, you know, the long journey of going from discovery in the university to a biotech company funded by venture capitalists into big pharma is the typical path that's tried and true. that will continue. i think what becomes increasingly important in a market like the one that we've been in, which has been kind of a nuclear winner with regards to public biotech stocks, largely because of the joefoverhang wit rates. that's why you're starting to see things percolate. as people look forward, they anticipate the rate cut from the fed.

xpi has responded dramatically in the last several months from its lows up to about 54% since october of last year. >> we were chatting in the break just before the segment about some of the innovative companies you're investing in when it comes to the glp 1 space, and we're talking about next generation drugs. we're always trying to think of what is going to be the competition to a lilly, and it's different mechanisms, not a glp 1 agonist. what's that company you were telling me about? the exercise gene? >> it's a company that we've recently invested into in houston out of the texas medical center with technology coming out of baylor and jointly developed out of the university of florida. really early stage company, but the mechanism they're working on is all focused on what are known as exercise mimatic mechanisms, so looking at certain metabolic pathways that allow you to take a drug that would trick the brain into feeling like you're exercising and, therefore,

having the opportunity to keep weight off or to take weight off, and that's just one approach. again, glp 1 space right now is a very crowded space, and so they're great drugs, they're revolutionary, but you know, 95% of the marketplace is not being addressed right now, and right now that's a huge opportunity for kind of next generation drugs. >> john, great to speak with you, thank you. >> pleasure to be here. up next, final trades. (reporters) over here. kev! kev! (reporter 1) any response to the trade rumors, we keep hearing about? (kev) we talkin' about moving? not the trade, not the trade, we talking about movin'. no thank you. (reporter 2) you could use opendoor. sell your house directly to them, it's easy. (kev) ... i guess we're movin'.

♪ final trade time, julie. >> a health care name i think that's high quality, that is going through some headwinds is west. i think it's an opportunity for investors. >> tim. >> great numbers by slb this

week. oih looks very strong. >> karen. >> well, next week going to the dance with the girl that brought me, meta. >> bonawyn. >> i think the move is overdone, alphabet. >> thanks for watching "fast money." have a gatre weekend. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. >> my mission is simple. to make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey, i am kramer. welcome to cramerica. friends, i am just trying to make a little money. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me at jim cramer. the stock market is not always a