i think we'll skip a couple of these and take a quick look at the ten-year because we did the fed. see what happens. nothing expected. it will be very surprising but we will get that important jobs number that we'll see on friday. we'll get a much better idea about whether there is maybe some cooling, which would allow, with inflation down, for a cut. we'll do this again tomorrow. join us. "squawk on the street" is up right now. ♪ good morning. good monday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm david faber with jim cramer. we're at post nine of the new york stock exchange. carl has the morning off. let's give you a look at futures as we get ready to start another week, the last week in the month of july. we turn to august already. what's happening to the summer? >> i don't know. it's going. don't be existential. >> i'm sorry. i'm sorry. we're upbeat here. so's our road map because it

starts with the fed and mega cap tech on deck coming off a wild week of trading. futures, as you saw, pointing to those continued gains at the open we're also going to talk mcdonald's. those shares not moving that much given the numbers. falling same store sales. that was the first time they've seen that since the pandemic. and trump's crypto conversion, bitcoin climbing back near $70,000, this after the former president pledges a national bitcoin stockpile. also says he's going to fire gary gensler. we just covered what we were going to say. i don't know that we need to do that anymore. >> you can go home. we got -- lot of stuff this week. we could dissect that. >> let's start with the markets. we have a big week ahead. we always say that, but it actually is true. we also have a fed meeting. >> there's four big weeks a year. >> we've got the fed meeting, important earnings this week from the likes of microsoft and meta, and we could go on from there. you can take a look at the board, what we got coming up,

really gets going there, you see, midweek, and then amazon. there's microsoft tomorrow. yeah. jim, you know, give me a road map here on the actual market, especially, of course, given the incredible -- really, the historic rotation that we've seen over these last few weeks. it continued muted, but still seemingly continued in terms of outperformance of the smaller cap, the russell, versus the big cap. >> let's look at on semi, which is a company that makes very pedestrian analog chips go into autos, versus nvidia. on semi is the kind of stock that could have said anything this morning and go higher because it's been left behind. it's not a semi that people are focused on. nvidia could say anything it wants and will end up lower because it's viewed as too big, too much capital, and if you look at the conundrum of alphabet, if they had said they're going to continue to spend a lot, okay, they get

dinged for spending too much. if they had said they're not going to spend as much, they would have been dinged for falling behind amazon, meta, and microsoft. so, the big cap tech can't do anything right. and the smaller cap tech can't do anything wrong. servicenow. even though it's not really small. >> that's not small. that's 1$150 billion-plus company. >> they have a course to implement a.i. but the other guys, it just seems like we just decide, you know, we're going to hold these people to a higher standard. >> all right, so, what -- >> this stock is up. >> we do head into a week where we're going to get microsoft, amazon, meta, apple, to name four of the biggest companies in the world. will that change the narrative at all in your opinion? >> i don't think so. if microsoft does something revolutionary and say that pc sales have a real refresh and there's great interest in copilot, that would be good. amy hood, the cfo, making those

comments, she's not a hype artist. adam jonas came to the rescue of tesla today after that one being b disappointing. no one's come to the rescue of alphabet, even though i could make a compelling case. >> i assume it would start with the multiple that alphabet trades at. >> right. >> back to this rotation and the new perspective on many of these companies. there's no doubt microsoft is going to talk about how much money it's spending and how much money -- >> we now know that's wrong. >> and/or on a.i., and the capex numbers, as i always -- i sit here and just marvel at the numbers themselves, whether it be operating income, whether it be free cash flow, whether it be how much money these companies are spending, because we've never seen anything like it. so, is that going to overshadow anything else? we're going to come back to the basic idea of, are you ever

going to get a return on investment capital from all this? >> jensen huang sits down with mark zuckerberg today in a fireside chat. >> oh. >> yeah. at a graphics conference. >> okay. >> in denver. and i -- i think this could be the first time -- and of course, darn it, zuckerberg's been quiet because of reports from meta, but you might see him lay out something positive with jensen there. remember, jensen and mark did not -- my buddies jensen and mark -- did not necessarily get along when this whole thing started, and then mark realized the value, and i think that he's a big roi guy. he's not known, other than that one branch where he's just trying to figure out what to do, and i think he does the ray-bans, but that can't move the needle. stock's up for whatever reason. but i do think that he can lay out a good case with jensen there about why he wants to spend some money with jensen huang.

i think that nvidia never recovered from former president trump's -- >> taiwan comments? >> i have sources in the prc, shocking as that is. they're americans who are there. >> they're americans -- what? do you really want me to ask you questions about this? it's going to fall apart. >> no, because -- no. it's actually not -- >> tell me who these sources are in the prc. >> no, no. just hear me out. >> do you come to you during the night? president xi, direct line into your brain? >> let's go with gina raimondo. she's saying, don't worry, the democrats would protect taiwan. >> right. >> former president trump is saying, you have to pay us tribute. >> pay us protection money. >> and a very logical thing is that someone i follow, who does a lot of business with china, they're beginning to think maybe we'd prefer status quo. but if we could get in there and

take taiwan, because the government -- the government doesn't care, well, that would be an opportunity. >> it would be a very bad moment for the world economy, one would expect. >> it would be very bad, and i'm glad you mentioned that, because you're talking about 100% of a company that is one of the largest companies. 100% of the semis come from a country. >> taiwan semi is what we're talking about. all the high-end chips are made there. we're trying to change that. that was part of the c.h.i.p.s. act, fabs being built in places like arizona, in part some of them being built by that same company. >> they won't be the cutting edge -- they're meant to be cutting edge, but the fact is the kind of chips that nvidia needs are just unlike anything else. they're not chips that go into an automobile. >> i want to come back to your individual thesis which is that nvidia stock started going down a bit. what reverses that? we're back to what we're going

to get this week. it seems unlikely we're goingto get anybody saying we're going to spend less money on nvidia chips. >> we're talking about $1.4 trillion aggregate. >> in terms of spending by all the hyperscalers and everybody else, over time. >> exactly, but you need to have vice president candidate vance say no matter what, the relationship with taiwan is sacrosanct. the reason i say it's possible is because that was the former president trump's rap. he was -- he went to sacrosanct. >> have we heard anything from current vice president harris on that? >> only what gina raimondo said, the commerce secretary, which said that vice president harris is all on board with the current plan, and that is to defend taiwan and at the same time build chips here. that's her position. >> okay. let's move from chips to hamburgers. anything else? >> i'm all set to do that. >> let's talk mcdonald's.

second quarter numbers were a miss. revenue estimates as well. the company's same store sales falling for the first time since 2020. you know, i'm looking at one research report here, jim, that says that it seems to have been mainly driven by weaker than modeled franchise profit. >> okay, so, you take a look at the $5 value, which, by the way, people are saying, hey, they love, it worked well. they don't even have enough data yet. it just started. but the idea is that mcdonald's headquarters says, we got to keep prices down. the franchisees are dealing with 40% inflation over a period of 4 years and they want to recoup the cost of paper, food, some of that, and when they want to recoup some of that, what happens is you get a situation where the company can't make as much money because it's obviously run by franchisees. 93% are on board with the $5. so, it's not going to go away. and i don't think that this is

any shock. >> certainly doesn't seem to be. now, again, we haven't opened yet. 20 minutes from now, we'll get a better acceptance, but doesn't seem to be a shock to investors because these numbers were not great numbers but clearly would seem anticipated by those who own the stock right now, it's going to be up. >> let me ask you something. >> yes, sir. >> this is a zeitgeist issue. i think the earnings surprise factor is going away, and the reason i say that is because -- >> don't tell that to edwards life sciences or dexcom shareholders. >> i'll get to those in a second. but when you have a situation where everyone's expecting bad and it comes in bad, somehow it's regarded good. when you have an expectation where everyone's expecting good and it comes in bad, forget it. and then when you have a situation where it's supposed to be bad and comes to great, here i'm thinking 3m and bristol myers, vroom. there's always been this manufactured kind of thing behind the scenes of a low bar. >> of course. >> well, i find that right now, if you look at the -- the moves

last week on thursday and friday were really accentuated and they were on real failure. edwards life science was, like, wow, i can't believe that. >> it was a wow. >> mcdonald's was, like, no kidding. it's wow versus no kidding. oh my god, i need to write that down. >> bristol myers was up a lot. 3m, the numbers themselves were not overly impressive, but to your point, they weren't as bad, i guess. >> they weren't as bad, and there seems to be some -- >> you say btf. >> there seems to be hope with this new ceo. >> he's very good. >> at 3m. >> by the way, he's taking out $1.5 billion in cost. that's a lot of cost. >> it is a lot of cost. >> and that's going to really help the situation. they have a mental health franchise that if it turns the corner and makes a platform, it's really great. in the meantime, they have a breast cancer drug that's really good. soriatic arthritis. >> we're talking bristol myers.

>> all of which takes us back to mcdonald's and the fact the stock is not going to go down on numbers that had been more or less anticipated, even though they're not strong. >> that's exactly right. there's a little read-through to lamb weston. >> disastrous. >> again, that was, like, wow. there's, like, wow, that was bad. and then there's, are you kidding me? we all knew it was bad. those are the two categories. >> there's the wow and the -- >> and the no kidding. like, no kidding, mcdonald's, but 3m. wow. >> wow. >> bill brown comes in and he's got a strategy. ha. like stratego. move the guys around. >> stratego? all right, still to come, former president trump promising to make america the world leader in bitcoin. that was over the weekend. we're going to give you the details. >> it's about time. >> it's going to be another look at futures. we got an opening bell, 17 and a half minutes from now. we're looking up.

by the way, keep an eye on that ten-year. where were we? 4.6%. 4.1%. excuse me. 4.16% on the ten-year. >> who thought that would happen? and there's a scheduled auction this week. we'll have to stay very close, david, because it's a big week. >> it's a big week. don't go anywhere. we'll be right back. okay, team! oh, thank you so much i couldn't have done it without you. honestly, i don't do a whole lot here. i'm really just here for the at&t internet, it's super-fast so, any pre-launch concerns? what if nobody buys them? that's mean or, what if everybody buys them? oh, i hadn't thought of that that's probably not gonna happen can we handle that kind of traffic? the network can handle it! i downloaded eight hours of true crime stories just during our last video call i'm learning a lot

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let me say it again. on day one, i will fire gary gensler. whoa. i will appoint a new s.e.c. chairman who believes america should build the future, not block the future. >> former president trump speaking out, of course, about s.e.c. chairman gary gensler. that was at the bitcoin 2024 conference. it was in nashville over the weekend. trump also pledging to maintain the current level of u.s. bitcoin holdings. he did stop short of calling for a bitcoin strategic reserve. thoughts? >> well, i think that gary gensler got caught on this one. he was trying to use traditional law, which says that if it's a security, it comes under his purview. but if it's not a security, frankly, it doesn't, and i think that former president trump obviously falls in the camp that it's not a security. the cftc is happy with that. so, you do have this dichotomy

of different branches of the government. one is kind of happy with crypto and recognizes that if we don't do it, it's going to go overseas. i don't want to say happy. gensler was more circumspect and not happy with some of the lesser cryptos, which they don't feel merit owning, and they shared some of that stuff with the, and i got to tell you, there are some outlying coins that i don't think former president trump may really want. this is strange to have a strategic bitcoin because the reason why you want that is because the government's spending so much money. on the one hand, it's like -- it would be like if the government was spending a lot of oil and then you got to refill. but the fact is that if you think that the budget deficit is overwhelming, as larry fink does, then you would certainly believe it would be great. it's just that it's odd for the government to set it up. >> yeah. >> the reason why we're in trouble is because of the government.

it would be better if they cut spending than it would be if they adopted bitcoin. crypto. anyway. >> if former president trump wins re-election, one would, of course, anticipate he would -- there are a lot of people -- he might also ask, can we make people come back to the office, which would not be bad for washington commercial real estate. >> cbre called a bottom on commercial real estate. >> i know. >> it was pretty interesting. >> there have been some stories that the banks are finally -- >> put the hand on the bible. >> okay. >> take it down. >> yeah? >> gary, you're fired. is it like that? that would be incredible. that would be like lightning. i think you're right, david. >> we got a lot more stocks to -- >> we're not done. we have a lot. >> we have a lot. you got a "mad dash" coming up. >> is it a standing one or sitting? this is the thing. during the break, this is what they say. they don't say, wow, that was

really good on bitcoin. they say, it's standing or sitting. this is when we wait for the -- >> judging from the time, we might stand for our "mad dash." i have a feeling. >> i have a sitting suit on. i don't have a standing suit. >> i have my usual two suits on. taking another look at futures, we get started with trading for the week in ten minutes. we are expecting a higher open, of course. keep an eye on bond prices and yields as well. certainly important for this market. and will that continued historic rotation out of mega cap and into smaller cap companies continue? oh, so many questions here on "squawk on the street." we're coming right back. you know what's brilliant? boring. think about it. boring is the unsung catalyst for bold. what straps bold to a rocket and hurtles it into space? boring does. boring makes vacations happen, early retirements possible, and startups start up. because it's smart, dependable, and steady. all words you want from your bank. for nearly 160 years, pnc bank has been brilliantly boring so you can be happily fulfilled...

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to how you spend with the citi custom cash® card. [mind blown explosion noise] let's get to a "mad dash." we're going to talk a little crowdstrike. the stock has not been particularly strong after the global outage. >> true, but jpmorgan says crowdstrike, delivering a master class on incident response. they like that one. ubs, short-term pain priced in. room for upside. how do you like that? and then, morgan stanley has done key takeaways from global resellers. they like it. >> wow. >> there are a lot of people calling the bottom that george

kurtz -- remember, george kurtz has raced for 24 hours. he's number one -- probably the number one racer in our country for formula one. no one talks about it. he won sebring. people say he looked hag bgard the "today" show. he always looks haggard. i do like the fact that he personally has gotten in a level of incident response. they screwed up. he called me at 6:00 a.m. a week ago. it was on friday, i was off, and he goes, look, there's a release out, it's not very good. i called him back and said, it's horrendous. he said, i thought that you would make that judgment. >> then you brought him on and we had a pretty frank discussion at that point. what does that all mean? the stock is down 32% in a month. is this the bottom for it? wall street seems to be rallying to its cause. >> i think it's the bottom because it offers incredible -- look, i had thought that the business would go to sentinel,

which is -- had -- the stock's gone up, and palo alto, where the stock's done nothing. but the morgan stanley note does talk about feeling the floor. bottom line, we are slightly more constructive on crowd. >> there's something. >> more confident. >> how do you like that? they were ready. >> they were. >> i don't even have to say anything. you know what? they were -- they had some encouraging partner feedback. did you know that? >> i do. >> this is maybe not an overreaction because it was really bad, but it does say, maybe -- maybe george kurtz has really kind of done a great job making everybody feel like, you know what, they're not total losers. they're actually quite winners. i like that. standing "mad dash." we found that during the break. >> wasn't it nice to stand? didn't you enjoy it? >> i did. did you have a good weekend? >> i had a nice weekend. >> how about the podcast? >> sure. you can catch us any time and anywhere because you can follow re: eng awonhethe "squk t stetopinbell" podcast.

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all right, let's count you down to the opening bell here. we got 1:20. when it's you and me, obviously, we miss carl. >> of course. >> but we always like to do key to this market. take us way back to the old days of "squawk box" when you and i and mark haines, joe kernan, and i would ask you that same question. >> i debated apple. i thought about 3m. discussed in my brain, nvidia, and i come back with tesla, because adam jonas, who unceremoniously gives ford the boot as his top idea, says, look, the worst is over. time to buy tesla. it seems pretty good. the other things they're doing are good. solar is good. the robots, autonomous, so he blesses it, and i think that's going to have staying power because there are people who just do nothing but want to own the stock. >> there it is. >> 40% upside. >> the guy has been wrong. he's been wrong. >> and the relevance of that? >> why would i listen to him? he's always worth reading but

why would i listen to him when it comes to whether or not a stock is going to go up or down? >> why do people believe melville? why is tolstoy still read? >> jonas is similar to melville or tolstoy? >> why is stephen king still read? he's a thoughtful guy, and we've been waiting for him to re-embrace tesla, and he's re-embracing it in a way that was very cogent. i happen to think he's a market mover like none other. >> let me do the honors here about what we heard. that was the opening bell. kayne anderson celebrated a recent ipo. at the nasdaq, financial services company alerus, celebrate its fifth listing anniversary. >> that's the kind of stock. david, can we explain to people that when they say small cap, that's a fatuous thing.

they're buying an index. >> you've made the point, and i think the point has been made by others as well, the quality of the companies, small cap companies, is ouften lacking in terms of profitability, their indebtedness is higher, oftentimes. one reason why they do benefit when rates come down. the feeling is that they will potentially benefit from an upcoming refinancing or they're lucky enough to have floating debt. the quality of the companies overall is not as good. >> right. you take a look at the smh, the key indicator, that's the etf for semis. well, the top ones are nvidia, taiwan semi, broadcaster, texas instruments, advanced micro, okay? the bottom ones, skyworks, on, all recommended today. those were all recommended. upgraded, every one of those. people are saying, i'll recommend the smaller semis, and

i'll avoid the larger. and that's what's happening. even though the smh -- well, today -- how long will nvidia really be up 52 cents before a heat-seeking missile knocks that one down? remember, you are up against the seminal peace pipe smoke between him and zuckerberg. although they have been friendly for a while. >> jensen. >> jensen huang. >> on the rotation, i'll reference laurie, frequent guest here, we always look to listen to laurie, rotation trade slow, room to run in the short-term but also think whether a leadership transition is under way remains to be seen. not particularly helpful, but that's what a lot of people say. is there something that you would see, jim, that would give you some confidence that this rotation, this historic rotation, actually has legs? >> well, i just think that -- i look at it the other way around. the other stocks move so much that it really is great if the market broadens out and starts

embracing skyworks. i'm focused on the semis because they're top of mind today. you take the skyworks, i mean, yes, because 66% of its business is with apple, people have hated it. >> right. >> that's not right. i mean, it's entirely possible that apple does well. there are people who are writing about apple and what's going on with -- with a.i. >> let's talk about that for a moment. you're referencing, i believe, a bloomberg story, and i'm looking for it here in my pile. here it is. they essentially say that, you know, these features are going to come a bit later. now, apple, to its part, by the way, never said anything about when they would come so it's not as though they're delayed, per se. >> we got to stop putting words in apple's mouth. that never works. >> the idea of being, perhaps, they'll make apple intelligence available to software developers for the first time for early testing as soon as this week and that's atypical. they don't usually release

previews of follow-up updates until the initial time the software is released publicly. >> that's not in the stock if it's true except for the fact that it may have been some whisper that it was ready. if you really are an appolonia, whatever you want to call it, apple is the mag seven that is the best position because they seem to get away with -- they're like a free rider here, david, because everyone else spends a fortune on datacenter and they say, hey, you want access to our billion people? give it to us for free, or maybe pay us. >> right. >> look, the way -- if you want to play overspend, buy apple. when will people understand what i just said? >> certainly, they're spending but nothing approaching -- they're not on the datacenters and the chips the same way that microsoft is or meta or amazon or alphabet. >> when the stock goes to $230, you're going to start hearing people talk about what i said.

>> that's an interesting point. free rider. >> they're a free rider. don't you like that? i came up with it on sunday when i did my piece. >> okay, we'll develop the apps, the phone will be capable doing it. >> and we're going to put commercials on apple plus, which is fine. i like apple plus. >> we'll get all these new apps that are a generative a.i. z design and get 30% of the revenue for not spending additional capital on chips? >> listen, you -- if you pay us x, you just turn the tables. you pay us x, we will use your gpt. meanwhile, google, the gang that couldn't shoot straight, we've got openai coming off search. >> shares of alphabet are recovering a bit. to your point, they were down the last two sessions. i believe friday ended lower as well. thursday, certainly, on this

news of a chatgpt search competitor. >> lilly is working on a viking killer, viking is working on a novo nordisk -- accept the fact that everybody is working on something that's against everything because because the markets are too big. it's too big to not be in artificial intelligence or glp-1s. bristol myers did not mention that they were moving into weight loss. they only mentioned they're moving into skchizophrenics. >> there isn't a pill from pfizer. >> pfizer could go buy viking if they wanted to. >> they're trying as well. i did notice lilly was down last week just because of one of the largest market cap companies. period. that was the reason it was being sold. >> thank you. because this is not a mag seven, okay? it's a big cap into -- it's not even into small cap. it's a big cap into mid-size. >> now it's not, but it's -- >> if you're worth more than $500 million, they're going to

slice a bill out of you. billion here, billion there. maybe they slice a hundred billion out of you like they did with lilly, and you're just very vulnerable if you're over that level because people say, this is the opportunity to sell and move into stuff i don't know by using the index. that way, i don't have to get my hands dirty. that's what's happening. how about in the takeover world? >> what about the takeover world, jim? >> did you see? there was a downgrade of warner br brothers discovery. >> warner bros. discovery? haven't we talked about it enough? >> yeah, yeah, no. this is what i want you to rap on. fundamentally, warner brothers' long-term earnings growth potentially is lower without the nba. does that mean that comcast would be above with the nba? >>depends what you're paying. it's a different story for everybody. >> there's a lot of people who think there's no level that you

can't pay for sports. i disagree. >> david zaslav disagreed and he got into a price negotiation, ultimately, that went away from him because there was a bidder willing to pay a good deal or at least more -- certainly more than they asked from the nba to warner bros. discovery during their exclusive period. now, they're -- now they're going to be in court. of course, they did finally file that lawsuit that we told you would be filed or had been filed but was made public later on friday afternoon. people can read the complaint. >> i didn't get to discuss charter with you. >> wait for the nba to respond and we'll see. >> there is a sense, you know what, we're all going toward the hyperscalers, to the mega -- let's just -- i thought the nba really wanted amazon. they kind of just wanted it. >> i think that's true. charles barkley agrees with you. >> yes. get that money from amazon. in the same way, everybody wants -- everybody wants netflix to have the christmas day yips.

>> wby the way, netflix, you've got a regional issue there where the networks air different games regionally. it will be more difficult in some way, i believe, for netflix, like, to take the package that cbs has, for example. >> okay, okay. >> not that that's going to happen. remember, this all opens up in 2029. by the way, it's part of the paramount deal, it is worth noting, there is a change of control provision in the nfl agreement with cbs. >> there you go. >> now, what i am told is it's not worrisome at all for the potentially new owners of paramount. >> i have similar -- >> but may require them to either up the ante in some way for the nfl or help with production for the nfl network. there may be something. there is likely something they're going to have to do, but they're not concerned that the games are somehow going to go elsewhere as a result of this change of control. >> it's not jump ball. >> that's not the belief. it is a slight -- could you imagine if you just bought paramount and you lost the nfl?

>> that would be really suboptimal, for heaven's sake. >> that would be poor. a poor outcome. >> yeah. yeah. that would not be -- no. >> speaking of that area which we all love, disney shares are up a bit. they have been doing really well at the box office, jim, this "deadpool & wolverine" movie. i saw it. >> a couple reports -- >> i couldn't follow any of it, but it was funny, and people like it. >> super funny? were you laughing on the inside? >> he's very funny. ryan reynolds is very funny. he can deliver a line. >> he's also got great products. mint. the gin. >> it's done very well. as, of course, did "inside out 2." they have had real success at the box office, which they would say powers so many other parts of the business, not to mention can have a positive impact on your streaming service, because it may actually mean you don't have to spend quite as much on new content, given the demand

for movies like this one. >> if that's the case, why is the stock up only 50 cents, which frankly is pathetic? >> i would turn to you for that, noted wall street funny man. >> so, it's a hated stock. in part because they have no ceo, and in part because -- >> wait, who has no ceo? >> they have no new person. they're like boeing. they should have mollenkopf in there. >> stepping down for years, though. that's a while away. boeing -- calhoun is stepping down soon. boeing's got to find somebody. >> i'm just saying that i would have expected disney to be up $1.50 for all the things that you just said. the flywheel, okay, the cruise ships, characters, you have -- >> games, characters, cruises, epic games. you go on from there. yeah. and of course the impact on streaming. you think it is underplayed by investors? stock is up 1% now. >> we need to hear from hugh

johnson, the cfo. i say that every single time just to see if i'll ever get a rise from you. >> why? >> i don't know. >> why? >> well, i've got other things to talk about. >> please go talk about them, because i -- >> how about this tiktok data collection justice department issue? data collection is a national security threat, the department of justice said. >> that's where you went? tiktok data collection? >> tiktok rates. >> a nonpublic company that apparently is not going to get shut down or maybe it will, but if donald trump wins, it won't? >> to hell with it. i thought it was interesting. never mind. >> it is interesting. >> i'm done with that. i said it. >> it maybe would have a positive impact if it did get shut down on the likes of meta, for example. >> i moved on. forget about it. i moved on. it was just something i wanted to talk about. how about howard schultz opposes starbucks -- >> come on, you love talking about howard schultz. this is an "ft" story. i've been trying to get some sense here. starbucks reports this week, right? >> yeah.

you know, i -- starbucks can have a really horrendous quarter. >> is there a chance that we get a settlement between elliott, a large shareholder there, well known activist? >> i think it's highly unlikely. >> and starbucks? we got a while here. it's unclear why you would set now. you've got some time until the window opens and everything else. >> tomorrow, starbucks reports and it will be very telling because they have china, which, of course, is like heineken, took a charge from china, and people like that. but they also have labor stuff not about that. >> what would you like to see? >> i would like to see a cheap cup of coffee instead of a $9 cup of coffee. i would like to see throughput. i'd like to be able to get out without someone from the -- who did a -- an order, you know, pay here order, and just get in front of me. i don't like that. i don't like when someone cuts in front of me. i used to get coffee for everybody. now i say, listen, someone else get this. i'm not going there. i'm blue

bottling. >> when it comes to whether you'd like to see elliott prevail by putting one or two people on the board, you're not going to get an answer? >> i'd like them to put eight people on the board. >> should howard schultz be involved at all? he's a significant shareholder. >> he is. >> he's not on the board. >> i think that howard would tell you, you know what, that's not the game plan. that's not the game plan. there are a lot of ways you could win here. if you do -- i mean, think about all the things that you go, throughput, buy now, mobile, if you got all these things working, i mean, i know, david, you're going to laugh at me and i don't really care, but cracker barrel was on the show last night. >> you were right. i am laughing at you. >> laugh on the inside, will you? >> julie was on. she's talking -- >> i'm listening. tell me. >> she's talking about a two to three-year plan to handle the pickup, handle the redo, because you know the old staple of the

apple pie with a slice of cheese on it and then ice cream, it's no longer front and center. now, during another day where i just depeidn't think as much about -- i wasn't as weight conscious, that was my staple at the clinton cracker barrel. american cheese, david, not swiss. >> speaking of small cap, that's a less than $1 billion market cap. >> so, i shouldn't have brought it up. >> i've been to a cracker barrel. >> you never have. stop lying to me. stop lying about my -- >> when we were reporting the world com documentary 20-something years ago, i went to a cracker barrel a few times. it was mississippi. i'm old. you remember everything. i don't. >> colgate. >> i don't want to talk colgate. >> jesus. >> i want to talk tesla and ford. i want to come back to the key to this market. >> all right. >> and jonas. because, jim, ford shares are down another 3%. >> that's called relentless. that was a horrible quarter.

now, i don't want to -- i think that there were two things about the quarter that were terrible. one was that it was a horrible quarter and the other was that they thought it was a good quarter. they insult us. >> explain the disconnect there. is there cognitive dissonance? >> they're not acknowledging that they have a real hard time making cars. the warranty issue. you don't pick up a mary barra piece and see that there are warranty issues. she's the ceo of gm and doing a remarkable job. >> that stock also went down sharply on earnings that were -- >> they were, because in the end, they're losing money on ev and china is no longer good for them. plus, everybody's worried about the china threat, the existential china threat of the cheap cars. ford was terrible. >> jonas said he found it notable, ford spent far more time on their conference call talking about evs than tesla did. he goes on in detail about how much money tesla is going to make from selling zero emission vehicle credits. >> yeah. that was true.

autonomous. it was interesting, the piece in -- i can't remember if it was "ft" but about why musk doesn't like biden. it goes back to the union. the president is like norma ray. i liked "norma ray." it was a good movie. made me june the union. >> somally field. she won the oscar twice. >> we seeucceeded in wiping it out, we were so successful. >> is there anything you would like to add? >> yeah, this castle that my wife is looking at is a million euros. >> that's great. it's in ireland. >> she is -- you know, she has the four grandparents, and she's lucky. erin go braugh, partner. >> all right. the show is going to be from ireland, perhaps, at some point, in the not too distant future. >> andrew ross sorkin and -- not us. >> i'm going to have my own wing

in that castle. >> the inside needs to be -- it's like a fire. >> it's going to be a major production. 19th home. yikes. all right, let's take a look at the bond market before we take you to a quick break here. check out how treasurys are faring this morning. we've been talking about the ten-year. i mean, it's below 4.2%, still there. >> you think jonas is there? jonas -- he's doing something else. >> he's writing his next report, jonas. all the man does is write. he's the most prolific writer i've ever seen. he may not be right, but he writes a lot. >> dickens, stephan king, and jonas. but we don't have to read jonas in elementary school.

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let's get to stop trading. glad we had time for abbott because we didn't get to it yet. >> what was interesting, the ceo on our show, remember he said he talked about this right up front saying this is front and center the stock has given up the gain it had last week because if we believe that dexcom which had a disastrous quarter is losing share to abbott on diabetes, but i would point out a $500 million verdict will not probably stand. >> it won't. but this is for the infant formula litigation. >> specialized formula. >> they lost and it was a big number. >> it was a gut punch as the ceo said. i would point out that it's not shocking because chris had the same problem. the difficulty is they make $9 million. they have $9 million in revenue for their product. the fda doesn't want us to pull

it, but it's a much catch 22. if they pull it they keep losing lawsuits. they need help from someone in the government. i don't know how that plays out. they could lose every case and still be able to handle it but that was a new -- st. louis, which is the worst jurisdiction in the country. for the defendants. if you remember, the plaintiffs prevailed against j&j on talc in st. louis and that was the straw that broke the camel's back. >> what's on the big show tonight? >> people are worried about, let's say athleisure, looking for sara, sara, and just kind of outdoor sports and we have columbia, which has really good technical stuff. i love their performance fishing gear. it's been a real disappointment. let's find out what the heck is going on. >> we'll do that. >> yeah. back tomorrow. just kind of -- >> i'm here all week.

>> really? >> how about you? >> it depends. it depends. >> how you feel in the morning? >> i will be here. it's a big week. >> it is. >> i don't know if we mentioned that. >> big week. >> big. >> it's a big week and world war ii it's still big. >> take a quick break here. we are up in the overall markets, s&p and nasdaq have gains right now.

good monday morning. another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm david faber with leslie picker, live from post nine. carl and sara have the morning off. a look at markets 30 minutes into trading. we are up on both the broader issues, the broader markets. nasdaq as you see almost a 1% again while the s&p at roughly hars a percent. >> 30 minutes into the trading session some movers we are

watching. shares of on semi soaring on the back of its earnings beat. shares at 12.5%. the company seeing resilient demand for its automotive chips however revenue forecasts came in mostly below analyst estimates. tesla another rally here. shares up on morgan stanley's adam jonas naming tesla a top pick in u.s. autos replacing ford. jonas says cost cutting and restructuring has stemmed the downside risks to the ev business and that tesla may be cornering the market for ev credits. shares down about 3% today but tesla up more than 5%. and mcdonald's moving higher despite missing earnings estimates, same-store sales falling flat for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2020. we'll have much more on those results and where the stock goes from here, but currently up nearly up 3% on those results. >> yeah. which were not what had been anticipated as you said, but nonetheless perhaps had been anticipated, i guess.

>> and the outlook looks decent. >> yeah. it is gearing up to be one of the busiest weeks. a flood of earnings, a lot of the magnificent seven reporting, whether apple or amazon, microsoft. we also have the fed on deck. we have a rate decision and chair powell's news conference this week. let's get over to steve liesman for more on what investors need to know as we head into this important meeting. steve? >> yeah. david, good morning. also a whole lot of economic data. but this is widely viewed as the meeting before the meeting, where they cut with the question being, how much guidance does the fed an chair powell provide for what could be rate decreases in september and beyond. the statement for several months has said the committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2%. now creating the opportunity for the fed to change the statement to indicate it has gained some greater confidence as a result of the declines you can ein the

monthly deflation raitts. the markets go in with a 100% price cut in september, 69 in november, 65% probability of a third cut come december. treasury markets were on the move this morning in a pretty big way. 8 basis points decline in the 10-year yield now down to 4.17 and change. investors may be looking to lock in those higher long-term rates before the fed starts to shake things up with rate cuts. powell and the fed could be expected to trade carefully here not promise too much before they have to ahead of a lot of data coming this week and before the september meeting. but in part this is a problem with the fed's own making since powell has talked about cuts as a process, once they start cutting they can be expected to keep going. and that, folks, is how the market is priced. back to you all. >> steve, i'm curious, what is it that is coming between july and september, both things that could tip the scale more toward

those -- the rate cut that market is expecting and things that market should be watching out for that would suggest that, you know, maybe they could keep it higher for longer? >> okay. so let's start off. let's take a look at the calendar this week, in case you have free time available. here's some things you might think about doing. wednesday is a pretty big day. in part because we're going to get some economic data that the fed really likes to follow. adp and the employment cost index is a big thing for fed chair powell along with the next day you have productivity and unit labor costs come in ta day and the nonpharmaceutical pay -- non-farm payrolls and non-farm is ticking down strong at 190,000. that's just this week. before the september meeting you're going to have another employment report and you'll have i think two more inflation reports because you'll get one in the middle of august and then one in the middle of september just before the fed meets again.

the fed is looking for trends and the greater confidence. two inflation reports is meaningful as we head to september. >> what's behind the likes of a dudley or alan blinder saying the fed should cut this week? what are they thinking and seeing? >> you know what's kind of funny, david, i to got a call f a money manager who manages a lot of money and bonds and asked if there was a possibility of a cut this week which i responded no, i did not think it was coming this week, but it is interesting, a, that there is a little bit of a whisper out there, little bit of concern on the part of managers maybe they're on the wrong side of this. i think, david, if you look at that inflation chart i put up, you look at the trajectory of inflation, you could make a cut that the fed is at or where it needs to go and things are certainly on the way. i think the big story here and dudley mentioned this, i will say this a bunch of times, it is increasingly looking like the

inflation spurt we got at the beginning of the year was that residual seasonality stuff. in other words, things that happened every year that the seasonal adjustments did not account for. so i think that's important and i think there's also some concern about weakening of the economy and saying you know what, if you don't get to it now, you're going to be too late. >> steve, thank you. steve liesman. let's get the street's take ahead of the fed. joining us now david rosenberg, president of rosenberg research. give me your take. again, do you think the fed, david, should cut, even though, of course, as steve said, they're not going to? >> well, i think that alan blinder was right if the journal "today." i think the fed should go. it may be too much of a mea culpa for them to do it as soon as wednesday. eye so i think at the minimum they'll set the table for a september move and strengthened

further by what powell is going to say at jackson hole. i'll tell you the truth, i don't think you can rule it out entirely. it's not my base case scenario. the odds are higher than the minuscule probabilities that markets have priced in right now. >> and why do you believe that the economy, you know, deserves or is at least in need of, perhaps, a cut sooner than september? >> well, i think that what's happening here is that what powell was talking a couple months ago, which he abandoned, which was the earlier inflation hiccup was idiosyncratic and refined to insurance, home insurance, auto insurance, they've begun to dissipate. the rental numbers are starting to behave a lot better and look what's happening in the commodity markets. i mean with all honesty how could you look at what's happening with commodity markets the base metals and have an

inflation view right now. they're starting to see a little -- the economy is not cracking, but it's not about that. we are starting to see more slack be built up in the labor market and so i think that that's really what they're focused on. the most important shift by powell and others at the fed recently was the focus on the dual mandate and the employment numbers aren't cracking for sure, although i think non-farm payrolls are the odd man out in terms of the gamut of employment indicators but the reality most measures of resource slack in the labor market are beginning to go up. i think that's what's on their mind right now. >> and we'll get a fresh read on that on friday. how focused are you on the other central bank meetings across the world this week? there's an important one in tokyo, important one in london. how much do you think those will impact the commodities markets, the fixed income markets, and how much should investors be paying attention to those as well? >> i think as far as the bank of england is concerned that's pretty well priced in.

the key is going to be what sort of guidance we get. the boj, a rate hike, would be a big surprise that is not really priced in. and so look, a rate hike by the boj, that would send the end even higher and it's, of course, beginning the downward trend is finally broken. hard to make book on overall what it's going to mean for the trade weighted dollar. probably comes out as a wash. the one central bank that i think should be interesting to all of us is the one that resides next door to the usa which is the bank of canada. and the bank of canada has not just cut rates once, it's cut rates twice and as i like to say, you know, can dada is the 51st state. if you actually read -- if you read the commentary on the u.s. economy out of the bank of canada their view, not just that but read the beige book. i know that we get the gdp

numbers and i think there was a lot of nonrecurring factors that supported that 2.8% upside surprise, but, you know, the fed is telling us all along they're listening not just to the government data, but to the business contacts and as i read the last beige book, i mean it revealed that basically half the u.s. economy is already either in recession or in stagnation and, of course, that's the other half that right now is carrying the load. that trend towards the greater share of the economy heading into such stagnation or contraction that share is on the rise. but in answer to your question the most important central bank has been the bank of canada and what caught people by surprise, wasn't so much the rate cut last week, but the forward guidance that they believe they have more to do. and there's more idiosyncratic problems in canada as far as the economy is concerned, but we are integrated in the north american economy and so you got to be

thinking if the boc is cutting rates twice ahead of the fed and saying we've got more to do, how far behind can the fed be? that's why i think i wouldn't rule out wednesday. i think the only reason why they wouldn't is more related to hue bruise and human nature and too much of a mea culpa based on their hawkishness. i 100% agree they should start -- i wouldn't call it an easing. right now just taking out the excess monetary restraint out of the system. >> right. right. well, you know what, you're raising the stakes a little bit. you and blinder and dudley, makes it more exciting. thank you, david rosenberg. >> take care. as we head to a break let's give you a road map for the hour. mcdonald's reports a big earnings miss. also sees comp store sales fall across the board. stock is up as you heard from leslie. we'll get a take on where it goes from here. >> oil coming off a third week of losses down 6% on the month. what investors need to watch

from here. >> former president trump making a number of big headlines on his plans for bitcoin and crypto. what it means for investors in the crypto world. that's all ahead right after this.

we're looking at a continued gap between food at home and food away from home inflation. the gap is about 3% right now. 300 bp gap between with the two.

you are seeing consumers being much more discretionary as they treat restaurants. you're seeing the consumer is eating at home more often and seeing more deal seeking from the consumer and you're just seeing, i think, a trade down even within either units per transaction or within mix. all of those things for us are indicators that the consumer across a number of these markets is being very discriminating and i would point out consumer sentiment in most of our major markets remains low. >> that was mcdonald's ceo on the earnings conference call this morning talking about consumer spending behavior right now. the fast food giant missing profit and revenue estimates and posting its first decline in same-store sales since to 20. joining us david palmer, evercore managing director, restaurant and packaged foods analyst. david has a buy rating and $300 price target on mcdonald's. thanks for being here. the stock reacting positively.

is it this idea that the $5 value meals, those are kind of introduced at the end of the quarter so, perhaps, the outlook and mcdonald's ability to capitalizon the change in consumer spending and behavior will show through at the end of the year. >> it's really not clear why the stock is up today. clearly investors were set up to the negative. the u.s. comp was slightly better than expected but the multiyear trend for that was deteriorating amid single digit type slowdown. it was not an impressive quarter. international on the call things got weaker towards the end of the quarter and that continues into july. it was a downbeat quarter and earnings call. the thing that people may be seeing, in addition to being generally underweight going into this and positioning helping the stock, is the fact that company is scrambling to get value messages around the world to get

comps going and this is ahead of some premium innovation that's going to be heating up into the first half of 2025. so that, plus valuation, we're at two standard deviation lows on valuation here so there's a lot of people looking at mcdonald's and if you can wait a year, you could piece together a case. this was a sobering quarter. >> and in terms of the international markets, those were showing declines. they had boycotts in the middle east. there were declines also in china and japan as well. how concerning do you think that is, as they kind of get things back up for the 2025 bull case? >> they were downbeat about certainly china, france, two big markets for them, they were particularly negative about those. there are some value messages that have been rolled out in places like canada, dollar coffee there. they seem to be relatively upbeat about that. but for the most part, it's

similar to the u.s. either they have a value message like the mcsmart menu in france and germany in place but they need to augment that with certain items on that menu or in the u.s. they are still in search of a value message that could be a buy one get one for a dollar, for example, but they need to do something to create more of a hero value item on that, so 1.29 or 1.49 any size soft drink in the u.s., something they've done in the past that could work. they're not there with the franchisees and the negotiations for that are ongoing. >> david, few people know the sector and the company as well as you do. it's interesting when you express surprise at the move in the stock. you came up with a reason. is it one that's sustainable, investors are looking longer term here and/or as well that the stock is cheap, or is this going to come right back given those numbers? >> it is a weird move.

we know a lot of big long onlies looking at this name and see the value and those are the types of investors that this -- that have not been involved in mcdonald's for a while. it's a 30 or 40% weighting by the top 25 mutual funds versus the s&p wearating. they're not there. they're looking at this. hedge funds are short the name because the trends have been lousy in the u.s., they did do a little bit better than we had thought, 0.7 was better than the 1s most would have thought. it's early. this is going to take a few quarters to get going. >> so, perhaps, a little bit of covering contributing to today's gains. thank you. >> thank you. >> let's get over to andrew ross sorkin. he's live at the olympics in paris. find out what's on deck from him. andrew. >> a lot coming on. you know, these olympics in particular, have been about trying to create a sustainable

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." our andrew ross sorkin is live from paris for this year's olympics covering not just the athletes but the business behind all of it as well. i know you have more, andrew. >> thanks, david. we call it money ball and this is like the olympic very of money ball and this summer we should mention that just paris is trying to change the game of how future countries will host the olympics. the country trying to reign in the cost and environmental damage just given how much they've gone over budget for so many years. we are here at the eiffel tower built in 1887 completed two years later in 1889. we're at the base of this iconic tower. it's going to become a new iconic venue for beach volleyball. we're in about 2.5 acres 13,000

seats in front of you. price tag it will cost about $26, down there courtside, that's $456 a seat. that's before the scalpers get involved. everything about these olympics is about sustainability and avoiding the trap where they become ghost arenas. this won't happen here. this is a temporary structure and everything is going to be reused or repurposed including potentially these shares and the sand that the canadian team is training on right now. one way that france is trying to limit the cost of these olympics, reusing existing properties including the grand palais behind me. it's going to host fencing and taekwondo but between all these sustainability efforts france is hoping to keep the costs of these olympics at $10 billion. that's still up from the $7

billion they originally had budgeted, but it's a lot less than what london spent, $17 billion, ore re rio, $24 billio. we're here at water polo prakts at the aquatics center, the only purpose built venue for these games. 15 million spectators at venues throughout france watching games, 9 million tickets sold, all to catch a glimpse of the action. and so far the games have not disappointed and the athletes by the way have done it in style. they've been decked out in ralph lauren. this is a video from the opening ceremony friday night as big names like lebron james and katie ledecky and coco rode down the seine river in the rain but in the ralph lauren outfits. i spoke with ralph lauren's ceo at the company's store and restaurant in paris and asked about the response he's seeing to the opening ceremony looks

and the entire olympic collection. >> we're really proud, actually a lot of people asking for our products. and while it's only the very beginning of the olympics, our products are flying off the shelves. what's important for us, this is an incredible opportunity for us to showcase the brand to the world. opening ceremonies, record high ratings up 60% versus the tokyo ratings and it's incredible the number of individuals who approach us and say can we have access to this item, that item. >> as patrice said the ratings up for the olympics outpacing just about all the summer olympics since the olympics took place in 2012, david, in london and a lot of media executives taking note and a lot of executives in town like david zaslav, brian roberts, but then the guys dealing with the licensing stuff, adam silver is here, roger goodell was here,

and more. >> how much of that, andrew, has to do with the time zone by which the games are taking place. paris could be a suitable spot for time zones around the world. does that have any bearing on the ratings profitability? >> i think maybe it has a little bit to do with it. the truth is when you go back and look at what happened over the years, you know, rio, 2016, zeka, was taking place at that time, which kept things sort of subdued and then, of course, tos the last time the summer olympics took place that was 2021, a year later in a sort of post pandemic world where, you know, there were very, very few people even in the stadiums themselves. i think that, you know, you're looking at an olympics in the middle of europe in the middle of the summer. the view couldn't be better behind me. and i think as a result, you just have sort of a renewed

interest in all. by the way, beyonce introducing team usa on friday night has not hurt at all. that video has gone viral and has really sort of created a lot of excitement and emotion around these games. >> beyonce, celine dion, nostalgia of the paris backdrop, all the tailwinds going for it and you there, of course, as well, andrew. >> thank you. >> thank you very much. up next, oil coming off its third week of losses down 6% this morning. we'll discuss the level investors ed to tcnewah from here. "squawk on the street" is back after this break.

welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm contessa brewer with your cnbc news update. president biden is calling today for an 18-year term limit on supreme court justices and a constitutional limit on presidential immunity. the supreme court recently ruled that some actions related to presidential duties cannot be

prosecuted. and in light of that ruling former white house chief of staff mark meadows is asking the supreme court to move his georgia election interference case to federal court. his lawyers say the case raises novel questions about the duties and powers of the presidential office. an appeals court rejected meadows' bid to move the case saying he failed to show his actions were white house duties. and the fda approved a blood test called shield to screen for colorectal cancer. the second highest cause of cancer death in the u.s. and the test is 83% effective. it's not meant to replace colonoscopies. medicare and private insurance companies are lael to cover its $895 out-of-pocket cost. leslie. >> wow. >> big advance there. >> contessa brewer, thank you so m much. to dominic chu tracking movers this hour. >> let's start off with a move higher in shares of tesla around 5% or so at this point getting help from analysts over at

morgan stanley. they've named it their top pick in the u.s. auto industry, and it replaces ford. that stock remains overweight rated, $310 price target. they're citing things like less downside risk giving cost cutting and restructuring measures and better trajectory for recurring services based revenues. ford shares are lower by 1.5% so far this morning as well. next up shares of abbott labs down 4.5%. the health care products and pharmaceutical products down after a jury ordered it to pay nearly half a billion dollars. the jury found the maker of similac baby formula distributed a product that led a girl to developing a dangerous bowel disease. that judgment was much higher than some had anticipated and abbott has denied the claims and then we'll end on crowd strike. the cyber security company friday more than 97% of microsoft windows sensors are

operational after the update that crippled computer systems. pair metrics says the financial loss for the outage excluding microsoft was over $5 billion. crowdstrike shares have lost a quarter of their value since the incident. those are some of your movers. back over to you. >> he is next to me, that brian sullivan. we're going to talk oil. prices have come off the third week of being down. stable this morning. >> so eager to see me. >> brian sullivan joining us at post nine. tracking all the action. what do we need to know given -- well, we always say this, but they seem to be higher the tensions so to speak in the middle east with hezbollah and israel exchanging a lot more rocket fire. >> scary time. out with a note we're on the breaking edge and not figuring out what's going on it's whether or not israel decides to push into lebanon to drive out hezbollah because they've been

lobbying missiles in, killed is it, mostly kids on a soccer field on saturday. if that escalates, israel, lebanon not oil producers, israel has a little bit of gas, that's it. this is an iran proxy and the world kind of keeps waiting for something larger. thankfully it has not occurred yet. you have that. the venezuelan elections. maduro claiming victory. he could get 0% of the votes and claim victory. venezuela not what it was. 822,000 barrels a day down from 3.7 million. used to be one of the richest economies in the world and millions starving to death and looking to leave. >> many people leaving as well. >> yes. if indeed -- the sanctions continue on venezuela from us, right, as a result. >> the sanctions were supposed to ensure a free and fair elections okay. i'm not sure we're going to get that. if the opposition lead ter gonzalez can pull this victory

out, chevron, exxon, you've been down, there more capital flow maybe we could lift venezuelan oil production maybe back over a million, give the people a little bit more money. opec has a meeting on thursday. not a big meeting. kind of routine monitoring meeting. the next big meeting in person we should be there, december 1st. after the election. and it could swing wildly. there's a lot going on with oil. continues to fall. production up 13.4 million barrels a day. a record. >> record from the united states, right. >> record. we don't hear a lot of bragging about it from 1600 pennsylvania avenue. maybe we should. the united states 13.4 million barrels a day, record oil production should continue into 2025. >> it's interesting, because so many -- >> i hope so. that's why i'm here. that's not interesting, brian. >> not even random, just interesting. >> nice one. >> i know the branding. over the last few years feels like when there are geopolitical developments that should impact oil don't. i know a lot has to do with the

domestic production we've seen and that's been a change in the market. is that still true given the scenarios you've described in the middle east and what you're describing in south america. is the u.s. helping stabilize this market? >> 100%. i mean that's all i hear about is opec basically have paper cuts of 2.2 million barrels a day. it's not the case. china's demand is not come back. everyone is like when covid is over china is going to boom back. china's economy stinks. you talk about it all the time. ask jamie dimon. he will tell you the economy is week. chinese oil demand has not popped the away it should. u.s. gasoline demand is up a bit year over year. i don't know if you've been driving. everybody seems to be on the roads. airports are a disaster. the reality 13.4 million we are the swing producer, like it or not, still 9.5 million barrels of russian oil off and discounted.

>> india and china. >> the tea pot refiners in china. mostly discounted oil. you've got plenty of oil, demand relatively constant, we'll see what opec does december 1st. food news for drivers. 76 and change. not to be a cramer, trig to get the numbers, 73.24 on june 27th. i could have made that up -- >> i'm not going to check. >> i sounded xwoots. >> going with you. >> nobody check that. i will see you for "money movers." >> i will see you for "money movers." glad your flight did land. thanks for giving us the rundown. >> tracking all the action. >> in the oil markets. checking in on markets, about an hour into trading now, the nasdaq, the standout here up 0.47%. the s&p up about 0.1%. our next guest projects the fed will cut rates twice this year at the september and december meetings.

barclay's chief u.s. economist mark genomeny joins us now. thanks for being here. september, december, 50 basis points in all? >> yes. that's right. that's what we have in our baseline. we think the fomc will almost surely leave policy rate unchanged this week on wednesday as it waits to gain greater confidence inflation is moving towards 2%. activity remains very resilient so that implies no urgency for a july rate cut but we have seen a lot of progress on inflation, the prints look encouraging, pc, what the fed looks at looked tame in june and for the second quarter showed a big improvement, so we thought that it's -- we think it's likely, in fact, that the fed will feel enough confidence by the september meeting to start with the first rate cut. >> do you think we'll get evidence of that in the forward

guidance explicitly or do you think they will remain more measured and say, you know, we're taking this on a case-by-case basis. remain data dependent, everything we've heard for a while. >> this week we don't expect a change to the forward guidance. we don't see any upside frankly for the fed to change its forward guidance. if you look as i mentioned at the data still looks strong. the market already anticipates a cut, has pretty much fully priced in a cut plus more later this year. i think we have about nearly 70 basis points priced in by december. so i think there is no upside for the fed to commit to a cut in september at this point. and i would expect chair powell to comment at a press conference and emphasize again that they're going to take it meeting by meeting. he'll certainly welcome the improvement on inflation. he'll talk likely about some

weakening or some cooling i should say on the labor market. but at this point no upside we think about committing to a september move. >> do you think that the way that the markets are pricing in a september kupts is too optimistic? i ask because we've seen this movie before coming into the year the markets expecting six cuts and here we are so far with zero so we've seen these overshoots before. is there a chance that that might be the case again or do you see much more coalescing around just the september idea? >> so i mean we think that the market is getting a little ahead of itself again, you know, pricing in also some cuts or, you know, more than cuts by the end of this year -- i mean more after the september meeting with some possibility of a cut in november also. we think the fed is going to proceed very carefully,

deliberately. it's not in a rush to cut. there's really no sign of the economy falling off the cliff any time soon. as i said, activity still quite strong. are the labor market still at full employment with no indicationing that the labor market as a whole is breaking. we think the fed is going to move no faster than one cut every other meeting, so we see no more than two cuts this year. >> a measured approach. mark, really appreciate it. >> thank you. >> up next former president trump whipping up excitement among crypto fans with his comments to make the u.s. the crypto capital of the planet. we'll take a closer look.

welcome back. bitcoin trading around 70 k following bullish comments from former president trump at the bitcoin 2024 conference. we were there over the weekend

and joins us back at cnbc hq. >> after weeks of hype donald trump's keynote leaned into existing pro bitcoin talking points but failed to deliver any big promises on monetary policy which is what his new crypto base was looking for down in nashville. the republican presidential nominee pledged to fire sec chair gary gensler, long-time crypto skeptic. not only can the president not do that, even if trump were to appoint a new chair after gensler's term ends in over a year from now, gensler would still remain a commissioner on the independent agency. but the main thing was trump's promise to launch a bitcoin stockpile compraised of roughly $14.5 billion worth of bitcoin that u.s. has seized in legal actions. >> if i am elected it will be the policy of my administration, united states of america, to keep 100% of all the partly sunny -- bitcoin the u.s. government holds or acquires

into the future. >> the reaction on the ground was muted. people were hoping that trump would commit to buying bitcoin through a reserve similar to what independent presidential candidate robert f. kennedy jr. unveiled friday when he said he would direct the treasury to buy 4 million bitcoin, about $280 billion at current prices, the assumption if the u.s. did this, other countries would follow suit and plunging supply would drive up price. meanwhile i'm hearing from democratic lawmakers that they're working with the vp on her platform. one congressman says that the kamala harris campaign is going to reset their crypto strategy in a major way. >> i'm curious, how bitcoin and other crypto currencies play a role in the fundraising that the candidates have and how that has evolved over time just in terms of getting these candidates more familiar with the crypto currency. >> that's a great question. a few months ago you had trump do this total 180 and brand himself as the pro crypto candidate for president and the

donations and endorsements came rolling in. so with respect to your question, crypto as way of raising cash, crypto tokens alone raised more than $4 million from ceos in the industry and then it's just being pro crypto and your rhetoric has brought more people over to the trump camp. the partners of a 16 and sequoia, vcs that invest in crypto projects are giving trump money. his fund raiser in nashville i will say a lot of similar names came to that event, coinbase's chief legal officer who had already shown up at a david sacks fundraiser to trump and the winklevoss brothers. whether he's expanding his reach or an echo chamber. >> interesting. thank you. still to come, apple's highly anticipated ai features reportedly set to arrive later than expected. we've got thdeils e tawhen "squawk on the street" returns. don't go away. (♪♪)

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personal list closed and fund. the ipo could price at least

let's call it in the last week or so. leslie and i have both been tracking this, that's according to sources, we both have. >> we both confirmed each other's sources. >> he's looking to raise $2.5 billion. it seemed laughable at the time, $25 billion for a closed end fund. obviously they waged that way back. 2.5 to 4. the various firms are looking to underwrite this thing. he sent a letter to his strategic partners, and that has held things up. he shouldn't have done that. it had to be included, amended to the prospectus, but it doesn't sound like it ee going to be too long. >> this letter you're speaking to went through a great deal about the process, all of the things that were very quiet correspondence that he believes were with his strategic

partners, investors who recently took a stake in the managing company that holds the closed end funds, and the lawyers were like, yeah, you're going through the closed end process and we have to disclose it. >> you can't say anything of that type unless you do it publicly. >> about being disclosed. so now we've got this holdup waiting for finalization from the s.e.c. the target has gotten a lot of attention. >> it's a large amount of money to have permanent capital of that amount i know. 25 invested with several companies, he could be active, take significant steaakes. i'm not sure what for. the thing that really seems to be the hang-up is that most often these kinds of funds trade at a discount to net asset values. why would you buy something on the ipo? he does try to address that, but he talks about post

-ipo trading assets and sort of the main thing holding people back perhaps. we have the evidence of this with his prior closed end funds. i don't have the stats in front of me, but for most of their history, they've traded below now, so it makes sense that that would be a holdup, and the question is who would be purchasing this? who would be buying into the $25 billion fund, and the whole idea has been bill ackman has this substantial media following he's collected over the last few years or so. at last count, 1.3 million followers. >> on x. >> on x. so the idea is they would participate. >> almost that it would become a meme stock almost. that's the word he's used. doesn't seem likely. doesn't mean he won't ultimately succeed and raise some money

here. >> right. and the question becomes does this cannibalize the private fund because this one is no management fee for a year and no incentive. >> for one year. >> yes. >> and then two years. >> the private fund, no fees. >> we're going to keep an eye on it. we're interesting in what bill ackman is trying to do. let's turn to apple. the report ahead of those earnings saying its ai features will arrive later than expected. our steve kovach is back at hq with more context. steve. >> this report has a lot of people talking this morning. let me explain what's going on here. some of apple's intelligent features won't be ready wheng the new iphone launches in september. instead they're coming in october. now, to be clear, this is not a delay. apple has already said its ai is launching this fall, or in the case of the chat gtb integration, later this year.

there are other caveats. we don't know which are going to be available at first. it could be several months or a year before it's all available, and it's only going to be in the united states in english at first. absolutely no clue when other countries and languages are going to get ai intelligence. they have strength regulation around ai models. they would need government approval in that country. many are convinced apple intelligence is still going to drive upgrades for the i-16 cycle. they'll need last year's apple or better to use intelligence. this morning the bank of america said the a.i. intelligence of apple will remain stronger because of the rollout of artificial intelligence around

the world. it could extend next year and beyond, guys. >> steve, thank you, particularly for sort of the nuance there. apple shares are still down ever so slightly. microsoft, amazon, and meta aulg getting started. we'll see about this rotation starting as well. so significant and historic, at least the money coming out of the hyperscaler or big cap names that will continue. a lot re mkemoart coverage will continue as well right after this. my restaurants, my tattoo shop... and i also have a non-profit. but no matter what business i'm in... my network and my tech need to keep up. thank you, verizon business. (kevin) now our businesses get fast and reliable internet from the same network that powers our phones. (woman) all with the security features we need. (aaron) because my businesses are my life. (kevin) man, the fish tacos are blowing up! (aaron) so whatever's next we're cooking with fire. let's make it happen! (vo) switch to the partner businesses rely on.

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good monday morning and welcome to "money movers." i'm leslie picker along with brian sullivan. could the rotation among short caps be short lived? we'll look in just a moment. we'll look at whether or not wall street believes those earnings can help the nasdaq snap a three-week losing streak. plus, we're live in silicon valley as former president donald trump's