>> yeah. it definitely is. we've had those conversations here on "overtime." in the meantime, a mixed picture for the markets today. arguably you're seeing the fomc drift kick in, expectations, that happens tomorrow. nobody's expecting a cut this week, but the commentary about a september cut. that's what's on the table. all right, that's going to do it for us here at "overtime." >> "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. loving it. shares of mcdonald's surging even as consumers pull back across its businesses. are investors feasting on hopes a value meal will bring back diners? then, to the penny. the stocks the chart master says are bumping up against precise support levels. and where he thinks they're going from here. plus, bond yields drop ahead of the fed meeting. tesla revs up. and call it a deadpool bounce. shares of disney getting a boost after big weekend at the box

office. how much higher can it go from here? i'm melissa lee. on the desk tonight, carter worth, guy adami, mike khouw, and julie biel. we're going to get to all of those stories in just a moment. but first, we start off with breaking news out of delta. the airline announcing a lawsuit over this month's massive tech outage. phil lebeau has all the details. phil? >> melissa, let me clarify. we do not think it has been filed yet, but we know that a law firm has been hired by delta to pursue damaging that happened because of the microsoft and crowdstrike software outage that began on friday the 19th, extended for about six days. david boyce, well-known it litigator, he has been hired by delta, and again, they are going to be seeking compensation from microsoft and crowdstrike. no suit has been filed as of this point. we have reached out to delta for comment. have been unable to get a comment officially. that software outage, by the

way, it is estimated to have cost delta between $350 and $500 million. we say estimated, because they're still figuring out exactly how much it's going to cost the company. they're handling tens of thousands of claims from passengers who were either stranded or had flights canceled. they have more than 176,000 refund or reimbursement requests. you add all of that up, the estimate, again, between $350 million and $500 million. delta canceled 7,000 flights due to the outage. melissa, we have not yet reached out to microsoft and crowdstrike, but will be shortly to see if they have a comment regarding this. not a surprise, given the monetary damages that delta says it is incurring and also the reputational hit that it has suffered over the last week and a half. melissa, back to you. >> phil, that estimated cost of $350 million to $500 million, that's the cost to delta's

operations, that's not the reputational damage. >> correct. that's the estimate that you get from analysts when you -- they say, okay, this is what we think it probably cost, between the 19th and the 25th or 26th, depending on when you want to say their schedule was officially back to normal. so, that's -- that's strictly looking at the refund requests, the reimbursement requests, all of the costs that went into getting back up to speed. >> okay. phil, keep us posted. phil lebeau. again, still awaiting comment from delta airlines itself, but they've hired a law firm, guy. and i guess we sort of knew, we were thinking about this outage and the liabilities that there would be an effort from companies who were effected to recoup some of their losses. >> fair enough. i think there are reasons to be bearish microsoft, i don't think this is one of them. let's call it half a billion dollars, we'll round up. talking about microsoft, a $3 trillion company. crowdstrike, $62 billion company. so, rounding error for

microsoft. sort of a big deal potential already for crowdstrike. the stock has been punished, so, we'll see. but i don't think it's necessarily market-moving, maybe gene thinks it will be, but for me, it's interesting, but i don't think it moves the needle here. >> this is just delta, though, mike khouw, and if you meltfully delta by x number of companies that have been effected, let's just say, i don't know, ten. what kind of number do you get? what kind of impact do you get at that point? >> yeah, x number of companies, large and small. just sort of elaborating on what guy was just saying, you're talking about a guy, when you're talking about crowdstrike, that was hopefully going to make maybe a billion dollars total in net income versus, you know, microsoft, which is many, many tens of billions of free cash throw. it is a rounding error, to his point. ultimately, this is sort of the -- follow the thread, all the way back to who is ultimately responsible, and you have to think that this is more

of a liability in terms of the impact on the potential share price for crowdstrike than it is for microsoft. >> we're not seeing too much reaction in the afterhours sessions, crowdstrike, at least, after the pummeling that it's gotten so far. morgan stanley, julie, saying they expect a 20% reduction in new bookings in the second half of the year, and that's not even -- that's not even accounting for the potential liabilities it might be on the hook for. >> it's hard, right? this is a company that was known as the fix-it company, that would come in for major data disruptions. it doesn't just come into question the level of consolidation that we've seen in the security market, where we are so dependent on just a single company, i think it has an impact that ripples through in terms of the m&a market. i think an issue like crowd strike's only gives lina khan more power to push back on these kinds of issues, because once we start to consolidate, we just become entirely dependent on them. >> carter, how does that chart

look? either microsoft or crowdstrike? >> well, yeah, crowdstrike, i mean, it's the definition of a bad situation. anything that's in an uptrend that suffers an immediate aggressive setback, not just a dip, but a heavy volume drop in gap typically, it's news-related, and that was, of course, the case with crowdstrike. now down from $400 to $250. it is always tempting to think, maybe i can catch this for a bounce, but this is more damage than i would say is normal, and i would resist the temptation to try to step in. >> i know we said this is a rounding error, and relative to the size of microsoft, it is a rounding error. at the same time, guy, if we are in a market environment which questions higher valuation stocks, which questions, you know, the return on investment of a.i. investments, which questions how much revenue is microsoft actually going to generate from co-pilot, and then you lump this on -- >> that's -- now you look -- you are always looking through it, i know you do, through the right lens, but with that said, now

people will start asking questions, like, this just -- i think creates another round of dialogue around these stocks and the valuations that the market has awarded to them. and to your point, i -- we say it all the time. the spend has been there in a.i., without question. you can't argue that. is it the return on investment, though, that's going to excite people, or is it going to be disappointing? i think that's sort of the other side of this trade. and microsoft tomorrow, i think, after the bell, i mean, you're going to learn a lot more in terms of, is the growth going to continue? you're starting to see sort of a deceleration, and 30 times next year's numbers, which is where microsoft is trading, it's an expensive stock relative to its history, and obviously realive to the broader market. >> let's get more with jengene munster. great to have you with us. what is your initial take on this news? >> i'm right lock step with guy on this one. i think this is a rounding error. and you think about the microsoft quarter, what's orbiting around it is several

topics. the crowdstrike outage piece, that is something that will be in litigation, probably, for a long time. there's also cyber insurance, they could claim act of god, they could -- we're a long way away from resolution, and probably a long way away from microsoft tomorrow talking about any specifics around this. my guess is that they will say something like, this is going to have a minimal impact on the business, and there is low probability that they're going to venture an actual number around it. that's one topic that's already in the quarter. the other topics related to a.i., azure, and how they're starting to monetize co-pilot 360. when you put all of this together, i think the crowdstrike piece, the outage piece, i think it's probably fourth on the list in terms of what's on investors' minds going into tomorrow. >> i want to talk more about microsoft and the quarter, gene, but as a tech invest oror, the damage to crowdstrike is not just in the damage to recurring

bookings, but also potentially in liabilities. is it tempting to you? >> not yet. we had owned crowdstrike up until about a month or two ago, and we didn't anticipate this happening. our sell discipline was around more valuation. and so -- but we -- we know the company really well and we are not stepped in. and i think in this case, you really need to see a flushing out. typically takes a couple quarters. we'll see a step-down, probably see another step-down again, and i think once you get two quarters of bad news in, once they report their december quarter, that's probably the point where you have a good sense about really what the impact of the issue has been on their business. >> gene, let's go back to microsoft for a second. amongst the many things that people will look at, what is going to stand out to in terms of the one thing that will move the needle in terms of market reaction? >> it's all going to come down to azure growth. that truly is the pressure point. the number, the bogey number

here is above 30%. that number is important, because google cloud grew their june quarter by 29%. last quarter, azure grew at 31%. the street is looking for just over 30% growth. as long as they can show they're continuing to gain market share, i think microsoft investors are going to generally view this as favorable. i think that the, you know, the flip side is if that dips below 29%, there's a whole new narrative that starts to emerge. i think that's probably the biggest, and then, of course, there's the capex, but to answer your question, guy, it's all about azure. >> hey, gene, this is julie. i was curious -- there have been various reports, what is the a.i. software attach rate to what the cloud azure spend is. i heard for every $100, it would be $40 of a.i. spend. do you have any sense of if we'll hear anything about that more concretely, and what we should be thinking about in terms of battle testing that number? >> so, the co-pilot piece, this kind of falls in the category of what's been generally

disappointing around software and a.i., we just haven't seen the uptake. we saw a little bit of good news from servicenow last week, but in general, to put your -- put numbers around that, there are about 360 is kind of the j maic number, 365 million co-pilot users, office 365 users, conveniently, those numbers. and if you think about what that impact is, they have said to expect slowly over the next several quarters and years. but if they add 1%, if they convert 1% of that base, it's about $360 a year, and that would add about half a percent to their revenue. so, the bottom line is this, is -- a.i. is going to be throughout all microsoft's products, but don't expect any sort of magical lift to happen tomorrow night. i think they will continue to tamp down expectations relative to the impact of co-pilot 360. >> sounds like you think the stock is going to go lower, gene, or am i just imputing

that -- >> i don't know if it's lower -- >> only 30% growth rate on azure, 31% is the company's guidance, i don't see anything that's going to make the stock go up. >> well, i could be wrong, and we could see a bigger -- a better azure number, i think probably the, you know, that's something that could make the stock go up. that's the most important piece. at deepwater, we don't own microsoft right now. there are other companies to own. i just put one piece -- so, we don't own it, we think there are better places to invest, and i think it comes back to a topic we continue to discuss, which is, to what degree do you believe in a.i.? if you think a.i. is going to be transformative in line or exceed the hype that's out there, then microsoft is going to continue to do well, but i still think that there are other companies, google, meta, apple, that are going to do better. >> gene, thank you. always good toll ge get your analysis. mike khouw, the stock hit its high july 5th. it's down about 9% or so from that time.

how are the options markets positioning? >> yeah, the options markets are generally positive. we have seen calls outpacing puts by about 3 to 2 over the course of the last 20 trading days or so. right now, the options market is implying a move of a little over 4%, which is in line with their historical average. i will say, though, and this probably is consistent with gene's view, that, you know, the price of options is well over the 80th percentile right now, looking out three months. so, it does look like the options market thinks that it's going to be a little choppier than it has been. all right, let's get to the other big story for us, and that is the big day for mcdonald's. the stock gaining 4% for its best day since 2022. even after a largely disappointing earnings report this morning. the fast food giant seeing a drop in same-store sales for the first time in nearly four years, as price conscious consumers pull back. our kate rogers joins us now with more. kate? >> melissa, it was a tough quarter for the fast food giant,

missing estimates across the board. it's second straight quarter eps miss. and as for those same-store sales, they missed the mark in every operating segment. in the u.s., its key market down 0.7% as the ceo said its value leadership gap in the category shrunk, adding that the consumer slowdown was most pronounced with low income consumers. take a listen. >> seeing the consumer is eating at home more often, you're seeing more deal-seeking from the consumer, and you're just seeing, i think, a tradedown, even within, either units per transaction or within mix. all of those things for us are indicators that the consumer across a number of these markets is being very discriminating. >> now, the theme on the call was, no surprise, all about value. finding the right offering to resonate with consumers globally, because this pull-back isn't limited to the u.s. consumer. it is important to note that $5 value deal began on june 25th,

it's not really reflected in this quarter, which ended june 30th. and while 93% of restaurants will extend the offer into august, management seems keen to continue it further. i obtained a memo to the u.s. owners today from the u.s. president saying that we have an affordability gap to close and we must continue to take actions that show our customers we are listening, because franchisees will have to make decisions on how far they want to extend this. back over to you, melissa. >> kate, thank you. kate rogers. so, the savior to the stock today was the fact that the value meal was selling. >> right. >> and that could be extended. >> and it could have been worse, right? >> yeah. >> and, you know, carter can speak to this, but put up a chart. put back a chart to october and look where mcdonald's has traded down to. i'm pretty much here to tell you, we traded right back down to those october lows, which is when, by the way, the broader market bottomed out, as well. you had something to trade against in terms of that low. definitely relief rally. and the market's going to say, wait a second here.

we can wrap our head around what mcdonald's is trying to do, their strategy. people will come back. and at 20 times earnings, it's worth a flyer against that level. so, some what -- not that i would have said this was going to happen, but it actually makes a lot of sense. >> carter? >> well, that's right. i mean, to some extent, this is a classic where price is wise. chipotle is down 30%, wendy's and darden and so forth down. at this point, it's a classic instance of bad news, stock goes up. much is priced in already. in fact, the s&p 500 restaurant sub industry group right now on a relative basis is back to where it was in 2009. my hunch is to actually start buying some of these assets that are down on their knees. >> i get the idea that you offer a value meal, you get consumers back, but are they really going to come back? once that $5 deal ends, are they going to go back to their old

habits, julie? i mean, i guess it depends on how long the consumer feels inflationary pressures, but if you think it's going to be beyond august, which is how long they're looking to extend this, i don't know if that foot traffic decline is actually going to be reversed. >> yeah, i agree. i think it's the one challenge of, once you start doing discounts, it is so hard to pull back from them. and as has been demonstrated in the soft foot traffic across all of these food service retailers is that people will just stay home, if they don't think the value is there. and everyone is value starved, it's not even just the low income concept. a lot of people that i know, you know, even super wealthy people are very aware of pricing and how little value there is anywhere in the market. so, i think it's going to be a persistent problem. we're going to hear it across consumer diskrigs their. if you can bring value to the table, a company like elf that is surprise and delight consumers, you're going to be fine. but if you can't, you're going to struggle. >> yeah. mike? >> yeah, i mean, first of all,

we shouldn't be too surprised, as carter pointed out, we saw this with starbucks, you know, consecutive quarterly disappointments, and then we saw the sament thing with one of their suppliers in the form of lamb weston, which had an enormous miss, 74% income miss. and, you know, that basically speaks to this whole issue. the one thing i would say about mcdonald's is that we're dealing with mcdonald's corporate here. so, if they can do things to encourage people to come back, they're getting paid on a royalty model. i think that a lot of the pressure is actually going to be felt by the franchises, arguably more so than mcdonald's the parent. and so, at its current multiple, it might actually be worth playing this one from the long side, even though the entire sector is really under significant pressure and i expect that to continue. all right, coming up, apple's a.i. ambitions. will the newly announced features drive iphone upgrades or will the rollout put a wrench in their plans? plus, a major call on tesla. just how much higher one analyst sees this stock going. and what's going to get it

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welcome back to "fast money." tesla shares surging more than 5.5% today after more began stanley named the ev maker its top pick in u.s. autos, replacing ford. adam jonas reiterating its $310 price target, which is 33% upside from today's close. he says cost-cutting has minimized downside risk for the company, points to increasing revenues from tesla services, specifically. the energy business, which he thinks could be a big one, and also selling emissions credits. mike, what did you think of this call? >> yeah, i think it's important, you know, it's interesting, because it replaced ford, but i really don't think these are close comps, when you look at tesla versus any of the sort of legacy automakers. first of all, they're way ahead on the software side. they obviously have a business model that fields naturally to services, in fact, if you own a tesla, many people are already subscribing to services, obviously that creates an ecosystem basically, i think,

that's a real strength. and the truth is, the cars actually do represent, you know, exceptional value for money, i think. and that, plus full self-driving. statistics show that the cars that are operating on full self-driving, though there's been negative press about those where you've had accident, is lower than cars that have people driving them themselves. one of the costs for consumers is insurance. they've tried to resolve that by offering it themselves, but i think that is going to be a benefit, as well. there's a lot of potential things that can turn around and be real positives for tesla. >> yeah. i thought that was really interesting about this call is that the reasons why it's a topic in the auto industry is because it's not an auto company. i mean, those are the areas of strength for tesla, the nonauto parts of the company, guy. >> well, you hit the nail on the head. it's everything x-atuto.

let's look at the stock. if you go back 3 1/2, 4 years, it's been in a pretty significant downtrend. you have seen bounces of this magnitude over the last six to nine months. so, it's not unprecedented. the question one has to ask themselves, a lot of people think it's the next $3 trillion company. if that's the fact, if you believe that, in a $5, $10 move doesn't matter in the stock, however, if you think it's a margin story, you think there's competition coming, the next administration might not be as friendly. then you have to take this into consideration. i still think the stock can trade significantly lower from here, when i say significantly lower, back down to the mid 180s or so. >> carter, do you see that in the charts? >> well, i mean, to guy's point, just look at the chart, look at the price action. i mean, right now, the stock is the same price it was in the last week of july 2021. so, you've gone from $232 a share to $232 a share. the drawdown in the s&p is 27, the qs is 37, so, you have no results. and those two indices are up,

with much worse risk. now, that -- it has nothing to do with their future, but what it does say is, you embrace a lot of risk here. we know the stock just dropped and gapped on earnings, now it's up because someone upgraded it. it's a trading vehicle, but my hunch is, you bet against it here. all right, there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. apple's intelligent update. the tech giant's detailing just what we can expect from the next iphone's a.i. powers. will it be enough to drive the new wave of upgrades? plus, to the penny picks. some big names hitting key levels, and the chart master thinks that that might mean they're ready for a bounce. the stocks on his radar, next. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. heat makes it last.

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welcome back to "fast money." investors brace for big tech earnings and the fed meeting. the dow dropping 50%. the s&p and nasdaq seeing small games. o

on semi reporting strong results. apple releasing a first version of its hotly anticipated apple intelligence for developers, with the public a.i. launch expected later this year. that launch expected to drive iphone upgrades. and afterhours movers. h lattice semi dropping on poor results. sprouts farmers markets higher after their earnings and revenue beats. julie, what would you like to trade of the bunch? >> ah, you know, i think probably i'm interested in f5. it is interesting positioning, and there's been so much excitement around the potential for their expansion, i think most importantly, where are we in terms of their profitability, and i this i that's kind of what's interesting and driving the story here. >> yeah. how about you, mike? >> yeah, i think i'm kind of with that one, too. i mean, the semitr trade, i'm concerned about it. i don't know that we're completely out of the woods there in general. you know, i think i would rather sort of play this all the way

out until we get a little bit more visibility on things like the election and just sort of broad market concerns, and eve taking us into september and october. i think it's going to be choppy, i have to say. >> how do semis look, carter? >> well, it's a mixed bag. things like lattice and on semi are so far off their 52-week highs as their peers, of course, are making recent new 52-week highs and all-time highs, driven by nvidia and other marquee names. the stock is down almost to the penny to its rising 150-day moving average, and stothers ar on the line. my hunch is you play for a bounce. >> look at this sprouts -- >> what about sprouts? i didn't -- >> pull upa chart over the last -- i mean, if you didn't know what this was -- carter plays this game. if you didn't know what it was, you'd be like, this has to be a semiconductor -- >> nvidia. >> it's unbelievable. i mean, it's lower left upper right. and this just adding onto all-time highs right now in the aftermarket. it's trading north of 30 times.

yes, the guidance was good. but is it that good? clearly -- >> is north of 30 times expensive? >> in my world it typically is. >> for a food retailer? >> i guess these days -- again, this was a $45 stock, seemingly, i don't know, four, five months ago. doubled in price. god bless them, but man oh man. the market is rewarding people in an interesting way these days. >> mike? >> well, i mean, if you take a look at anybody elses in the food retail business, they don't enjoy these kinds of multiples at all. look at kroger, albertson's, safeway, anything like that. you're talking about, at best, low teens, and, i mean, it's a tough business, right? so, you know, even before whole foods got acquired by amazon, if we sort of re234rek9 back on that, that was the one that traded at the rich multiple, and then they ultimately ended up struggling when people recognized what a challenging business it can be. so, 30 times is getting a little rich. >> all right. coming up, rates taking a leg lower ahead of this week's fed meeting.

what today's action could say about the market's next move. and a box office bump for disney. how a big weekend for deadpool and wolverine is boosting stock. what it could mean for disney's future. "fast money" is back in two. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this. oh, absolutely. (inner monologue) my kids don't know what they want. you know who knows what she wants? me! with empower, we get all of our financial questions answered. so you don't have to worry. empower. what's next.

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welcome back to "fast money." treasury yields dropping today with the ten-year rate now at 4.17%, hitting its lowest level since july 17th. the u.s. treasury today saying that it expects to borrow $740 billion in the third quarter, that's $106 billion less than what it thought it would borrow three months ago. the move comes ahead of this week's fed meeting. let's bring in eric hirsch. great to have you with us. >> melissa, great to be back. >> you are in the crowded camp right now of a september rate cut. why not july, when we're hearing, you know, increasingly, bill dudley, for instance, last week saying, we are ready right now for a cut. >> well, we might be ready, but the fed's not ready, is our opinion. and so, i think they're still processing the data. and you still have some conflicting pieces out there.

the consumer, in particular, is really sitting in a pretty bifurcated spot. you see places like mcdonald's and others who are catering to, again, that lower end consumer, who are seeing some real softening, and that consumer is getting squeezed hard. the top end of then consumer market, though, is just the xa exact opposite. high end restaurants, high end travel, leisure, resorts, spending continues, really kind of unchecked. and so, i think trying to balance out the two camps is tricky right now. >> erik, infrastructure and domestic manufacturing make sense regardless of who wins in november. but private credit sticks out to me a little bit here. why are you optimistic about that sector? >> well, i think you're still continuing to see a real need for borrowing, across the -- you know, the company landscape, and beyond that, i think what you're also sort of recognizing is the regional banks are just not coming back in a meaningful way to be providers of capital.

and so, unless you believe you're going to see a real sea change in the banking sector, which we do not believe, that private credit market is going to have to continue to fill that void. >> are there -- are we going to reach a point where we're going to see the weak players emerge from private credit? because it's become a crowded area. >> i think so. i think that market, again, we're not saying everything is great, or all the players are terrific, or that returns are going to be uniformly good across everythinger, part of the benefit is that you're seeing that real dispersion of performance, and so folks like us make money by making better picks. i do think, however, size and scale are going to matter. and so, i think you will start to see some consolidation, as that market continues to mature. >> so, erik, obviously, as juxtaposed against regional banks that have been real laggards, some of these boutique firms like jeffries and

evercorp, oppenheimer, so forth, have been huge outliers. what are you thinking there? >> well, i think they can -- i think two things can be true at the same time. i think you can see firms like those do well, based onrevenue sources that are coming not from lending. and so, i think we sort of can see a bifurcated market here, where regional banks and advisory banks like the ones you mentioned can be strong performers, as people need their guidance and advice and their service offering, and at the same time, we can still see regional banks not getting back into the lending business in a big way. >> what struck me as interesting in your notes, ererik, how you e the future of private markets evolving. you want it to be on the block chain and the retail investor could get involved. how far off do you think this is? >> well, i think a couple of pieces there. one, the retail investor should be involved. the institutional investor has been benefiting from this market segment for decades, and the retail investor has largely been

squeezed out of it. again, from either fee perspective or access perspective. that is all beginning to change in a meaningful way, but we think one of the ways it could really accelerate is by making this more digitally native. again, that lowers the investment minimums. it allows you to transact in a much more seamless way, and all of those things are going to be very attractive for the consumer. so, that market exists today, again, relatively small. hamilton lane is a major player in that space, having tokenized several fund offering in the u.s., in europe, and in asia. and we're beginning to see the customer uptake really beginning to sort of get moving there. but again, i think for the retail investors, easier, faster, and chiefer is ercheape be imperative. block chain is the key to doing that. >> erik, thank you for your time. >> pleasure. thank you. >> erik hirsch, hamilton lane. what are we expecting from the fed meeting? >> well, i mean, i look at it

and think, if i'm watching yields go lower, you just mentioned the amount of money they're borrowing, that's obviously positive for yields, driving it lower. i think the unemployment rate will continue to tick up. that should be yield friendly. in other words, yields going down. the flip side, you know, there is supply and demand imbalance out there. i don't think the fed is going to move here. i think they'll probably signal september. i just don't know what the market reaction is going to be, and again, it's not the inversion of the yield curve that people should be concerned about, it's the resteepening, which we're in the midst of now, and, you know, people say that's a bull steepening, it's a bull steepener for the bond market, not necessarily the equity market. >> the inversion has not been a tell on anything this time. mike khouw, in terms of how the market will react to a well-baked in 25 basis point cut in september? i mean, is that a sell the news event? >> well, i mean, just said it,

it's well baked in. and, you know, i think also to guy's point, if i'm reading incorrectly by what he said, it's not like they would actually need to act imme immediately. they can actually communicate and message to the market their intent and then continue to adhere to a very deliberate approach, and the narrative, which is, i think, the one that they've been saying all along. and, you know, look. there are reasons why you want to see rates going lower, such as lower inflation. there are reasons you don't want to see rates going lower, like a weakening economy. and, you know, i think we could still have some economic weakness ahead of us. we shouldn't fool ourselves. consumer, you know, consumers are giving us signals all over the place that that's the case. and employment is a lagging indicator. we need to remember that. so, you know, i don't necessarily think that these lower rates are going to be the panacea for the markets that everybody hopes it might be. coming up, marvel magic for disney. what a record-breaking weekend for two foul-mouthed superheroes

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we've got a news alert on the ipo of bill ackman's fund.

bertha cooms has the details. >> one of the investors that bill claimed was ready to purchase has pulled out of the deal. bau post has pulled out. the ipo has been delayed in part because of a letter in which he talked about some of the investors who were investing in that deal, and the s.e.c. has asked for more information, so, now the ipo has been put on hold and it's not clear when we'll see a pricing, but again, source telling our leslie picker that one of those funders has pulled out of the ipo deal. back over to you. >> bertha, thank you. men tantime, let's get to marvel. disney's stock surging today. julia boorstin has more on what it means for disney.

julia? >> well, melissa, shares of disney ending the day up about 2.5% on this huge opening weekend for the new deadpool and wolverine film. the film grossing $211 million domestically and $444 million globally. it marks the biggest opening of the year and the sixth biggest opening ever. it is a record for an r-rated release and gives disney five of the top six opening weekends of all time. it also makes marvel's cinematic universe the first franchise to cross $30 billion in box office receipts. this is a welcome reversal, after last year's marvel films fell short of expectations. now, theater stocks did end the day mixed. imax shares down 1%. cinemark up 2%. cinemark saying this was their best opening weekend box office of all time, with the highest concessions revenue since the pandemic. and the third quarter is, quote, pacing well with expectations. now they say the key question is

the depth of the movie options. they point out that movies below the top five have been performing poorly, even though the top five have been doing well. so, now the question is, how well this movie holds up this weekend. and also, what kind of demand we see for sequels that are going to be coming out for the alien, beetlejuice, and transformers franchises. we'll see how much people want to see the familiar brands. melissa? >> julia, thank you. >> love beetlejuice. i know you were waiting for me to say something. >> i was going to say, these movies, these sequels are on your list -- >> 100%. 100%. first of all, i was a huge winona ryder fan back in the day. that has not bwaned -- >> you're serious? >> no, no. michael keaton is a genius. if tim was here, he'd say the same thing. i'll go see beetlejuice. i wouldn't pile into disney stock here. by the way, nelson peltz, you talk about timing, april was the

announcement. look at the stock performance since then. gone from $122 to $90 in a straight line. >> he's not a trader. >> well, apparently he is. >> how does the chart look, carter? >> this is bad stuff, right? you are talking -- headlines are a funny thing. disney surged today, or is it just disney, which was down 56 from its all-time high in 2021 is now only down 54%. so it popped. it's below where it was last week. i think you stay away. >> yeah. mike? >> deadpool, dead money. to carter's point, this stock is right where it was ten years ago. that -- i mean, is pretty astonishing when you think about it. so -- you know, with -- all the missteps they've had along the way, obviously, there's still a lot up in the air. core pieces of their business aren't really anymore. so -- this is not a place that i think you want to dip your toe in just yet. >> all right. coming up, we are going to

the penny. the chart master has some names hitting key levels that could be ready for a bounce. that is next. and here's a sneak peek at the cramer cam. jim is chatting with the ceo of columbia sports ware. more "fast money" in two.' no matter how ambitious. bank with sofi to score a higher apy and an epic welcome bonus. (intercom) t minus 10... to score a higher apy (janet) so much space! that open kitchen! (tanya) ...definitely the one! (ethan) but how can you sell your house when we're stuck on a space station for months???!!! (brian) opendoor gives you the flexibility to sell and buy on your timeline. (janet) nice! (intercom) flightdeck, see you at the house warming.

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welcome back. the recent rotation out of this year's megawinner has a handful of stocks trading at key levels. and the chart master says they might be primed for a bounce. which names are you watching? >> well, we're going to do three, but before we get to the charts, they have nothing to do with each other. one is a retailer, amazon. one is a drug company, novo nordisk. and the other is microsoft, a tech name. going to look at two charts of each. and they'll all be identical, because this principle has nothing to do with the stocks in question. let's get to it. so, the first is amazon. that's the definition of uptrend. that is the actual tread line. let's look at the second amazon chart, instead of the actual trend line, the automated trend line. amazon's sold off to the penny to its rising 150-day moving average. in principle, a level where you play for that. let's do the next one.

what does novo have to do with amazon? absolutely nothing. up and to the right, 45 degree angle. it's sold off to trend. where you draw the trend line or you automate the process with the moving abict. it's the same concept. third and final chart, microsoft. so, it's the same circumstance. these are stocks in uptrends that have dipped, twice the rate of the market, down to trend, final microsoft chart, use the moving average instead of trend lines. when i began the business, i would draw lines all night. did it with pencil and paper. now, you can have a computer and try to profit accordingly. the principle is, these stocks are down 12% to 15% versus the market down 4% or 5%, because of the steepness of their preceding ascents. they sell off more. all uptrends are characterized by counter trend moves. you can call it a drop, a decline, it doesn't matter. you play for a bounce when you approach trend. >> julie, which appeal to you, if any?

>> probably microsoft and then novo, and, you know, i think the big thing for me is, thinking about the level of recurring revenue in any business. when you have any concerns about macro weakness. they have more levels of recurring revenue than amazon does, so, that's probably the place i would be the most confident. >> mike? >> yeah, i mean, all three of these companies actually have decent top line growth. they're all growing the top line faster than the s&p overall. when you look at amazon and microsoft, both are trading at multiples similar to apple. you know, so, to me, if you are going to be in any of these, and novo is actually growing master than either of those two, though it is trading at a richer multiple, but i think all three of these are reasonable here, though, as i pointed out earlier, microsoft options are implying that the next three months could be a little choppier than it usually is for that one. >> you did a little would you -- you snuck a would you rather in there without using --

>> would you -- you mean would you rather rather -- >> of the three. now, this is just me, this is -- >> everything you think is a game. you think everything is a game. it was just a question. which do you like the most? >> you -- okay. now you want to be that way? now you hurt my feelings. >> did i? >> well, does it matter? >> no. >> of those three stocks, i think the one that's most vulnerable would be novo. for a lot of different reasons, not least of which, some of the competition that's coming down. though they all look alike, i think they're the most vulnerable. the one that probably has the big biggest moat amazon. you shove microsoft in the middle. >> so, that means -- >> i think novo is the most vulnerable -- >> amazon is probably the best-looking chart. i think amazon is the best-looking one. >> okay. up next, final trades.

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final trade time. julie biel? >> we talked about this earlier about private equity really needing to do some deals, moelis has a full pipeline. looking good for the rest of the year. >> mike khouw? >> you know, could be lamb to the slaughter. lamb weston has been so badly beaten, if they just do 2019 numbers of $3.20, it's only trading 17 times. lamb weston. >> that is not in the holly index. carter braxton worth? >> silver is done from $32.50 to $27.50. play for a bounce.

>> guy? >> we just had a whole thing about wedding etiquette -- >> you alone had it. >> we're going to do it in the "fast money" widget extra. >> right after the show. >> carlisle group breaking out. >> thank you for watching "fast." see you back here tomorrow. "mad money" with 5:00 for more "fast." "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. . my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people make friends. i'm just trying to help you make some money. my job is not just to entertain, but to educate and teach. call me, 1-800-743-cnbc, tweet me @jimcramer. this market is not experiencing a small cap rally.