>> we -- so i would just say the question really is are we worried about a sharper downturn in the labor market and the answer is we're watching very carefully for that. we are aware of that role which is what i would call a statistical thing that has happened through history. the statistical regularity is what i would call it. it's not like an economic rule where it's telling you something must happen. so again, what do we see? what are our eyes telling us, we look at all of the things we're seeing and what exactly is a formalizing labor market and job cree and coming down gra gradually, but they're still

high by hift hift oral standard asks wr watching a normal uzing labor market and it starts to show signs that it's more than that, then we are well positioned to respond. >> is there a reason to think that the labor market might behave differently this time than it has historically? >> i think history doesn't repeat itself. it rhymes. that statement is very true about the economy. you never assume it's going to be just the same. an example is is there a trend increase in the level of vacancies. there are many, many examples and it's never exactly the same. also, let's remember that this pandemic era has been one in which so many apparent rules have been flouted like the inverted yield curve for starters. so many, many received pieces of wisdom just to see it work just because the situation is unusual or unique in that so much of this inflation came from the shutdown in the economy and the

resulting supply problems in the face of admittedly very strong demand. so the whole situation is not the same as many of the other prior inflation downturns that we've seen so we're having to learn -- we're having to be very careful about the judgments that we'd make, i would say. so we don't assume that the regularities will repeat themselves automatically. >> thank you, chair powell. -- with bloomberg. there seems a difference with what the anecdotal data are telling us such as the very recent beige book and the data. do you take those anecdotes seriously which is that the economy is cooling much more rapidly than what's shown in the data? >> so i do take this seriously. the beige book is great. what's even greater is hearing the reserve bank presidents come

in and talk about their conversations with businesses and business leaders and workers and people in the non-profit sector in the district. the picture is not one of a slowing or a really bad economy. it's one of there are spots of weakness and regions where growth is stronger than other regions, but overall, it's, again, look at the aggregate data and it's particularly pdfp and it's 2.6% and that's a good indicator of a private demand. so we listen to all of that, and it does -- it does -- i think it's important to listen to anecdotal data and not just the aggregate data and it's very hard. gdp data can be volatile quarter to quarter. so it's just hard to measure economic activity and it's just difficult to do. so i look at both, but i would aren't say that the anecdote is

uniformly downbeat. it's more mixed. >> thank you. jo ling kent with cbs news, chair powell, thank you for tabit taking our questions today. with a possible rate cut in september on the table it would be two mocks benths before the election and president trump said it is something they shouldn't be doing. what is your response and do you think it's possible to remain apolitical with a september rate cut? >> i absolutely do, and first of all, we haven't made any decisions. i would say it this way. i haven't made a decision about a future meeting. i don't know how the data will reveal and or how would affect that policy. i do know how we will make that assess am. that's what we do know. if you take a step back the

current situation is inflation has come down much closer to the goal and that's happened while unemployment has remained low. we are tightly focused on using our tools to foster that state affairs continuing. that's in each of our meetings and all of our decisions our focus is strictly on that and nothing else doing our part, whatever that part may be. you know, we're using our best thinking and we're doing our best to know the economy. we follow academics and we follow the commentators who bless us with their commentary, but we don't change anything if our our approach, jesus dead conduct a political outcome. the bottom line is if we do our

very best to do our part and we stick to our part that would benefit all americans. if we get it right, the economy will be stronger, we'll have price stability and people will find jobs and wages will rise in real terms and everyone will benefit. so that's what we believe, and that's how we will always act. this is my fourth presidential election at the fed. i can tell you this is how we think about it. this is what we do. so it's -- anything that we do before, during and after the election will be based on the data, the outlook and the balance of risks and not anything else. >> just a quick follow-up. do your economic forecasts and models take into account the two very different economic plans of these two presidential candidates harris and trump, and if so, how? >> no. we do not do that. we absolutely do not do that. >> we don't know who will win. we don't act as though we know. we just can't do that.

basically, we have our forecast. we can run simulations of different potential policies, but we would never try to make policy decisions based on the outcome of an election. that hasn't happened yet. that would be a line we would never cross. you know, we're a a non-political agency. we don't want to be involved in politics in any way so we wouldn't do that.agency. we don't want to be involved in politics in any way so we wouldn't do that. >> thank you, cheair powell. there hasn't been an interest rate decision for some time. if you do have more confidence by the september meeting, do you get the sense that there would be a unanimous vote on an interest rate move in september. basically, are there meaningful differences in committee members' assessments of how much more confidence is needed? >> there are always meaningful differences. there are, and you know, we talk a lot before, during and after the meeting.

we do have a very robust discussion of these things. you're right that in most cases people, if they feel heard and they feel that their position has been given serious consideration, for most people most of the time that's going to be enough. there are dissents. that's fine. no one has a veto. no single person has a veto. so it just is a question of who we'll vote for and against. we've had dissents. we haven't had so many during the pandemic era, and it just may be that you know, we felt more united because we felt under a lot of pressure to get things right, but before the pandemic, we had plenty of dissent, and dissents happen. it's part of the process. there's nothing wrong with dissents and if it happens, it happens.

>> hello. jean young with m & i market news. is a 50 basis point cut at all likely or even on the table? >> i don't want to say. i don't want to be very specific about what we're trying to do, but that's not something we're thinking about right now. of course, i haven't made any decisions at all as of today. >> thank you, chair. jane berger with yahoo finance. there was a real discussion in moving through this meeting and i was wog >> well, oso the way the meetin is set up, the first day is a discussion and then we have an opportunity to comment on that, and then we have an economic go around, and then this morning we

have the monetary policy go around. in people's economic and policy go around people, press their you haves about this and there are a range of views. people, as you will know from the speeches that they give, people have different ways of thinking about the economy and so in the minutes we'll lay this out in much better way than i can do off-the-cuff, but there's a range of perspectives and you know, but i do think that we are a consensus-driven organization and people come together. this was a unanimous decision, a unanimous decision and at the end everyone supported the outcome not just the voters, but everyone, so i -- you know, i would also say some people examine the possibility, you know, that the case for moving at this meeting, but it was the sense of the committee and the next meeting depending on what

data that come in. >> you could move it assuming it comes. >> no question. that is the case. as i mentioned, you know, we think that the time is -- it's approaching and if we do get the data that we hope we get then, you know, a reduction in our policy rate could be on the table at the september meeting. >> hi, chair powell. nancy marshall with marketplace. bill dudley wrote an op ed in bloomberg earlier this month that you probably saw in which he said, quote, it may already be too late to fend off a recession by cutting rates, doddeling now unnecessarily increase the risk. is he wrong? >> so this is the judgment that we have to make and we are well

aware of the judgment. as i've said, we have to weigh the risk of going too soon against the risk of going too late. we go too soon we can, you know -- we had a lot of advice to go ahead and cut after the seven good months of last year. we said we needed to do more and we saw higher inflation and we've seen one quarter of good inflation and the labor market move quite a bit. as i mentioned, i don't think it needs to cool off anymore for us to get the inflation results and not all inflation is, of course, and it's a difficult judgment to make and what you see is the judgment of the committee is that time is drawing near and that time could be in september if the data support that. >> and have your chances of a hard landing increased? >> so i -- i don't know whether they've increased.

i think they're low. you don't see any reason to think that this economy is either overheating or sharply weakening. that's just not in the data right now. what's in the data right now is an economy that's growing at a solid pace and a labor market that has cooled off, but nonetheless, unemployment is low and the data overall will show a strong labor market and so that's really what you see. it's not -- it's neither an overheating economy nor is it a sharply weakening economy. it's kind of what you would want to see, but of course, the job is never done. we're watching to see which way the economy heads, and if we are to respond to weakness we are certainly well, quipped to do that, but that's not what we're seeing, what we're seeing is strong economic activity and good labor market and inflation coming down.

>> thank you so much. in the minutes of the june meeting that came out a few weeks ago there was a discussion about communications and some fed officials said the fed warrant as clear enough about its reaction function, and when i talked to the commentators who bless you with their comments, they say that they really don't have a sense of what is going to judge -- maybe not the first cut, but the pace of the cuts going forward. they don't have a good sense of that. is there anything you can say? how would we judge that? >> yeah, i mean, i think the reality is that forecasterses and isn't just the fed by any manies, forecasters have been continue continually surprised

by the strength of the economy and we have to be humble about getting forward guidance about this, that and the other thing. when you say you'll be data driven it's always what the data and how they affect the outlook and the balance of risk, but nobody has great vision deep into the future. in terms of a reaction function, that's a long time discussion that people have had forever. i think people have under stood for a long time that we were focused on bringing down inflation and nobody was really confused about that. the data have, you know, again you have seen significant improvement in inflation just for the last quarter and the markets move around on the data and it's not really what we're going to do and it's more that the data keep coming in and the markets are very responsive to that data right now. >> thank you, mr. chairman. we'll change gears on you just a

little bit from all of the rate talk and what not. with the fed now being in the books for a little over a year there hasn't been a whole lot of talk about central bank digital currency and i'm wondering if you could give us an update on where things are with that? is that a dead issue now or that something that's being discussed within the committee or what's up with that? >> it's not something that comes up at all in the fomc. digital finance is an area that has significant implications for payments, generally, instant pages. it's something that's going to really change the way it's going to make more efficient and hopefully safer and all those things the way payments are made around the world. so we have people who are researching that and trying to keep up to speed because we play an important role in the payment's sector and as an operator, too. ? in terms of the cbdc, there's

not much going on and we can't hit you with a retail cbdc available to the public and we're not seeking that authority. so what we're doing is keeping up with developments there and pretty much every central bank in the world is doing that. some of them areseriously looking at implementing a cbdc. we are really not. we are just evaluating the story and what's happening out there. so, you know, it's work that we need to be doing which could be very beneficial down the road, but on a cbdc, we would to climbers and no one thinks it's a good idea. thank you. and welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner live from post nine here at the new york stock exchange. fed chair powell wrapping up his news conference.

stocks are up sharply before the decision adding to those gains. the market clearly teeing up for rate cuts in the months ahead. the nasdaq is for one the place to start looking because it's up better than 3% and that is the best day since february 2023. the money lines here from the fed chair, pretty clear, too. when asked directly about a cut coming in september, chair powell said, quote, there's a broad sense that the economy is moving closer to the point where it would be appropriate to reduce the policy rate. on cuts in september could be on the table as soon as the next meaning, he said and they've gaineded a greater confidence that inflation is moving to target. they don't want to so nor in the labor market and not getting worse with that. let's welcome in jeffrey gundlach with double line capital. welcome back.

good to have you, as always. >> good to be back on fed day, scott. >> your reaction to what you just heard? >> you kind of stole it a little bit. usually in these press conference appearances i have a word at the press conference and the word here is could. we could cut rates in september. he reiterated a number of times that they have a long amount of ammunition, if the economy starts toec whatten, but what's interesting about, i think about the messaging from chair powell is he said that conditions in the labor market and the economy broadly are sort of like they were pre-pandemic and on the doorstep of the pandemic and yet the fed funds rate is 525 basis points higher than that. i'll acknowledge the inflation is about a percent higher than

it was per the pandemic and that kind of means that there's a lot of room for them to cut short-term interest rates. our inflation model suggests that based upon where commodity prices are and what we expect shelter to happen that we could get a two handle on the cpi or have it on the pce and we can settle in even in the low twos, and if you have a positive, real interest rate that's even 1.5% that would suggest you have 150 basis points of room to cut rates without even thinking that you're being excessive about it. so i really think that we should expect to see the markets enjoy what the fed said here because they said not only could we cut rates at the very next meeting, but we could cut them a lot if we need to, and i think that's very heartening particularly for the stocks that got beat up and the high beta stuff where interest rate cuts would be

awfully helpful. >> you mentioned numerous times, in fact, to your point that the fed is still restrictive. should they have cut today? >> i think they should have cut today, quite frankly. what difference does it make six or eight week, seven weeks. one thing i find funny when people ask about the political climate and saying they don't want to be political and september 18th is two month away from the election and that they would have any impact on presidential politics. i think if you asked the average american what the fed funds rate is they won't even know that it's a number. they wouldn't know what it means let alone that it's a 5 3/8 today. so i don't really think that that's very relevant, but i think this is a pretty reassuring press conference for the markets. i thought -- i thought jay was very well prepareded and he didt

seem overprepared and in the answers to questions he seemed to go to a script, but that's okay. he had a -- he had to thread the needle, i guess he had to do because it's clear that the employment data is getting worse. that's pretty obvious. the rate is going way down and the unemployment rate is now 0.7 off its lows and being suppress by the current high owe the last 18 months or so. >> i think we're weakening seeing initial claims on the rise and the an uptrend. >> he wants to reassure people that he's hopeful that it won't go up by 0.2. we do have two more employment reports before the next fed

meeting and two more cpi reports and i think those will strongly inform the rhetoric that we get and whether or not we get a cut of 25 basis points. he seemed pretty clear that they're not really considering at all based upon the mix of the economy and inflation right now, cutting rates 50. you would have to see an unemployment rate go up to probably 4.3%, 4.4, maybe each 4.5 over the next few months which seems unlike. >> the yield curve has been deen verting and hanging out from 15 to went and the higher yield than 10-year that was out buysis i want we still believe that the very safe place to be is the two-year, the three-year and the five-year treasury which should have pretty big rallies when the

fed -- should they even cut one time and we deinvert the curve and head to a steeper yield curve. the long end of the curve, i feel, is still in the throes of angst or these interest rates and the level of the debt and the level of the deficit. i know i talk about this all of the time and it's extremely important today and it will be quite a lot in the next recession. >> i have to say, you sound to me rather sanguine about where the fed is today, maybe more so than you've been since they started this whole thing more than 18 months, almost two years ago. >> i am pretty sanguine because i think things have shaped up pretty nicely, and i think that jay powell is aware, and we'll harken back to that. he says he's got a lot of room to do things with the fed funds rate going down and that does maybe me more sanguine. i think the inverted yoolield i

problem and high credit card rates is a problem, and we see that the bottom end of the economy and the bottom 40% of the population, they are really hurting on these price levels and one way we can monitor that is the usage of food -- free food. food lines or whatever you want to call it has really gone up a lot over the past 18 months or so. in some regions it's triple. anybody out there that has a wherewithal, i would encourage people to give to these types of public services. the government can't do it all. i think it is much more effective if it's done on the private level so den eight these services upon our steve liesman has made made his way outside of the conference room where it was.

the fed seemed to not only set the table for the rate cut in september, he all, but served the appetizer. was that your take? >> i thought it was more circumspect, and i thought he could go either way, and there were times when he said it would not happen and there were times when he indicated not just one cut, but what i asked him was this idea, that you said in the past that it was a process of rate cuts, that one cut won't do anything, and i asked him if he was envisioning a process and here's what he said. >> we can afford to begin to dial back the restriction in the policy rate and it is part of a process. in terms of what that looks like, i think most rates -- you would think in a base case that policy rates would move down from here, but i don't want to try to give specific forward guidance about when that might be or the pace at which it might

happen because hal depthat will depend on the economy. >> that was before the statement in the press conference for now. right now we're looking at 100% probability in a rate cut in september. you're looking at a 73% possibility of a second cut coming in november, 71% by december -- on oh, sorry, it's higher than that 74%, ten points higher than it was, scott, before the statement today. so the market increasingly confident. not just one cut, but this idea of a process of cuts. >> we still have jeffrey gundlach, and jeffrey, i hope you wilould oblige us and steve has a question, do you want to ask him what's on your mind? >> i just talked about this idea, jeff, which i'm sure is on your mind and this idea of

steady rate cuts on the short end. jeff, how does the curve or does the curve disinvert in that process? i think short rates fall, two-year treasurys fall, four-year treasurys fall and five-year treasurys fall. i think steve's question to jay was good. it jogged my thinking about how much room he has to cut because steve asked is it one cut or a normalization process, and i don't know if jay kept that question in his mind as he continued after steve's question, but he seemed to -- if i try to read tea leaves he's normalizing and i think he knows the path of inflation is likely lower in the near-term. one thing that he did speak to was the seasonality of inflation, and i think that's a bigger point than most people appreciate. the first quarter, even though these numbers are seasonally

adjusted, there's this bizarre pattern that is quite strongly in place for multiple years that the first quarter comes out hot and the second path of the year comes on cool. and so we have a couple of pce headline numbers and not the one coming up, but the two after that and the ones rolling off are .4. it seeps unlikely to me that you'll get .4 replacing them and you'll have downward momentum on the headline inflation and it's further supported by the uncanny seasonals that's soon to be in lace that the fourth quarter inflation is less than the first quarter and the second half is less than the first half so these are things that support the notion of cutting interest rates. we don't know what the data is going to be just like i loved his answer when he said i don't know who will win the election. it would be ridiculous to factor one party's policies over the other if you don't know who will

win. the seasonality of inflation, and i expect the fed will cut rates in line with what the market was predicting. if i had to go under or over, i would think it would cut rates more than the market thinks. i think we have 150 basis points of cuts coming certainly by a year from now. it's interesting that the fed hasn't touched fed funds rates over the past year and since the last fed meeting virtually unchanged. there are almost no changes anywhere. so the market seems to have settled in and is waiting for the cut cutting seek toll begin. >> steve lies mid-cap, thanks, as also, after leaving the room with the fed chief. >> you've been pretty exbliss the for, and the fed conversation as you lewded toe

and heics where are, quote, i think they're low. has your own view changed? >> no. i think when we look back at today and it will be history when we look back at it a couple of years from now. i kind of believe that we will say we were in a recession in september of 2024. >> interesting because he still thinks that the economy is obviously doing pretty well. yes, there are some spots of weakness said the fed chair, but overall it's good. you take issue on that, too, based on what? what you're hearing from ceos about the consumer? >> i think it has to do with a lot of anecdotal evidence and if you just don't look at one data point like the establishment unemployment rate survey, there are a lot of things around that are not nearly as encouraging.

i talked about the quick rate and even leisure and hospitality. unemployment rates are rising and temporary, the full-time employment is being supplemented by part-time employment. some people are working a full-time job and a part-time job and counted as two jobs and that's just one person trying to keep up, keep their head above the inflation waters. i don't know, i just hear a lot of people anecdotally that talk about i lost my job. i can't find a new one. they're just anecdotes. i was working in the same industry for ten years, and my company had to close down. i lost my job, and i'm applying every week, sometimes two jobs a week and nobody hires me. i can't get a job. that's starting to happen, so

employment is a lagging indicator. everybody knows that, but the trend in employment has already changed for the worse. and its mask -- the government hiring is a little bit curious. if you want to make your data better, you can mapity late by having your area trois heightened and it was on the downtrend, it flattened out and now it's reissing. >> this is why you have the questions suggesting that by the time the fed cuts rates is it going to be late? are you suggestive that it will be too late by the time they actually act because of the anecdotal evidence and maybe some other data that's been out that you're seeing? >> that's exactly what i think because i've been at this game for over 40 years and it seems to happen every single time because unemployment is what's holding them up from cutting

rates. rates are really high. you have the pce dun at 2526. you have the fed funds rate almost 200 basis points higher than that and it's pretty restrictive and unemployment is trending higher and the underlying aspects of employment data are not improving. they're deteriorating and so once it starts to get to that uh-oh level where they start cutting rates it will be more than you think, and i think you will see about 150 basis points of cuts and that's my base case over the next year at the most. >> i guess, that's obviously why you still think that treasurys on the short end are still a good value here because presumably rates in subsequent months would continue to move lower. so you haven't missed your best opportunity yet? >> yeah. if rates are lower, when the cpi came out it changed inflation

expectations. people were surprised by the weak cpi number and all of a sudden the expectations for inflation out six to nine months has been down by 50 basis point, but one thing that might be worth thinking about in portfolios is that the fed starts cutting rates. i think it was the analogy of tiger, they had the t out and now they'll put paul on the tea, then first they put the tee on the ground and now the ball is on the tee and they're start cutting rates. upon that means that the best rate of all, and the flowing for meeting after meeting you might want to start. you don't have to do it tomorrow and you have to start shifting into fixed-rate securities. so if you have double the bank loans types of things which have performed extraordinarily well

and maybe it's time to go to the double fixed rate bonds. the high yield market is tight on spread and the economy is weakening, but the quality of the double b higher market is pretty good relative to historical standards, and so i wouldn't be afraid of loring the yield market and yields of, you know, around 8% are not easily obtainable, but can be found in a low-risk manner. so we've actually started in the funds that we do this type of thing start to make those types of movements just very recently, in fact, this week. >> interesting. >> i know our viewers appreciate the actionable advice from you. speaking of gold, you've liked the session highs and parsing the statement. do you still like gold? >> i do. gold seems to be like in a world of its own. i think has a lot to do with

geopolitical problems globally which just seem to be getting worse. just think of what's happened in the last three or four weeks, scott. it's almost hard to believe that it's the same month. it's july 1st because we've had an assassination attempt. we have bombings going on in israel and iran, you know, and the neighbors to the north. don't forget about ukraine which has not gone away and the presidential election nonsense going on where switching out candidates. this is a very, very dangerous geopolitical time. if you were thinking about making a move that you would hope that the united states would not counter, this seems to be the time to do it. >> you remain concerned, i know, speaking of politics about the deficit. you published a new paper this morning, as a matter of fact on the federal debt and deficit spirals is how you're terming

all of this. so what do you think happens in the months ahead? obviously unknown as to who will win the election. one of the candidates and the former president wants to re-up the tax cuts that are going to expire. you told me the last time you were sitting in your office in los angeles that you think that would be a bad idea. obviously, the democrats would certainly stimulate the economy to say the least without their spending plan. how do you view it now? >> this deficit problem is a problem in that we can't afford the interest expense and it just keeps getting worse and the fed keeps rollovers of bonds that are maturing and there are a lot of them. they're refinancing them up 300, 400, 500 basis points in some cases from where they were. so we had the interest expenses with the tax receipts and it's a completely unsustainable level

and the trois ajectory makes ity unsustainable. we're headed to a place where we'll have a substantial fraction of tax receipts under our current structure go to the interest expense and it's getting to the point where you can't ignore it anymore. you know, the interest expenses are higher than the yield defense budget and it's rising in a vertical manner. this has to be addressed. so how do you address it? you can alter the entitlements and i know that's not going to happen with whoever gets elected here, but we have to talk about that at least in the midterms at the presidential election because we can't afford this huge amount of retirees that are expecting and receiving these benefits whether they need them or not. that isn't going to solve the problem, exactly, because the unfunded liabilities are so big, but we're going have to come up with some very unconventional solutions to this, and this is what makes the investment

business and our political system structure so fascinating for the next four, five, six, seven years. it's in that timeframe that we must address these problems. otherwise, interest rateses on 30-year treasurys that's what's blurring me here especially when the deficit goes up. it certainly more government spending and more government money printing which would lead to a high degree of fear, deservedly, that we would have a repeat of the inflation spike of 2022. we now know that modern monetary theory has been completely debunked. they said you can print money and it wouldn't matter. inflation wouldn't go up and that didn't work very well. we're still talking about inflation being too high three years later and so that response

would be devastating to the long end of the bond market. so we'll see if they start going there. you might see a metaphor to what happened in the uk where they had some bad fiscal pol will sees and the interest rates on the long end went up a hundred basis points in a very compressed timeframe and they have even been in a day. that's the risk that we have if we don't get these policies back on track and that means having a government that isn't pumping up this type of a deficit, but if that's the case, the change in deficit spending decreasing would be a direct hit on gdp. so it's a -- it's a really interesting conundrum, and i hope that we have the right character, the right personality, the right brainpower to help figure this thing all out because it's coming at us now. it's not our grandchildren's problem. it's our problem. >> on that note, my final question to you is who are you

supporting in november? >> i don't support anybody. i've never been so foolish as to say i support somebody. i don't donate to political parties. i haven't in forever, but i do think that the electoral college looks pretty strong for trump as of july 31, 2024, but the way these things are moving and i think it was one of these soviets and i think it was lennin in or stalin and there are years where nothing happens or decades in which nothing happens and then their weeks in which everything changes. we are in a compressed time for change. stay buckled up, but at least the fed seemed to be on top of their job and they're saying things, maybe in code, but they're saying things i think are suggestive that they're thinking about the right things. >> we'll leave it there for now. i so appreciate you joining me. in september we could be talking about the first rate cut in the

cycle, jeffrey, and we'll be doing it from your office at double line. i look forward to that, as well. i'll see you then. >> when you come to the office, scott, you'll have to stop by the buffalo art museum. we have a show up by an artist most people don't know in the 1960s and '70s was ababsolute superstar. her name is marisol and she created these sculptures that are interesting and people go to an art exhibit and they go see van gogh. most people don't know how great marisol's art work is and this show one art magazine said this is the art highlight globally of the entire summer of 2024 and it's up until january. so i'd like to take you there, scott, if you can spare the time. >> i'll see if they'll give me a couple of days off. we'll discuss offline. jeffrey, thank you. i'll see you in september. >> all right. good luck out there, everybody.

thanks, judge. >> that's jeffrey gundlach joining us on this day. we do have about 15 minutes to go before the closing bell. some of the gains have moderated a bit, though. the nasdaq is still looking at close to a 500-point gain and pippa stevens, though is watching the individual names and we do have big earnings ahead, as well, pippa. >> that's right, scott. humana is a big loser after lackluster guidance overshaddied on better than expected second-quarter results and it reiterated its bottom line forecast of $16 per share, lower than what analysts had expected the stock down 3%. dupont hitting a two-year high on better than expected q2 results and the chemical maker boosted its full-year earnings and revenue guidance. dupont had net sales of 3 billion in the second quarter and an increase of more than 8% from the proior quarter and aftr the dating app company posted

better than expected second quarter revenue, revenue per payer also increased and the company said that monthly active user declines have stabilized. scott? >> pippa, thank you. that's pippa stevens. we are getting news on pershing square. it's a busy day. leslie picker has that for us. what do we know, leslie? >> that closed-end fund you and i have talked about several times now, pershing square is planning to withdraw the ipo of psus and that is the ticker symbol that would have been for the listed entity. bill ackman saying in a statement, quote, over the last seven weeks we've met with institutions and family offices, and while we have received enormous investor interest in psus, one question has remained would investors be better served in wait invest in the aftermarket than the ipo. this has caused us to reevaluate the structure to make the ipo

investment decision a straightforward one and he goes on to say we will report back once we are ready to launch a revised transaction. of course, scott, the key issue is closed-end funds do tend to trade at a discount to net asset value. so there isn't really a benefit in buying in an ipo of one of these things because you want to see it trade higher otherwise you're just buying on the aftermarket and as we've been reporting in the past week or so, the initial anchor floated in the media was down to 2 billion in a prospectus filed and pershing square is indeed withdrawing that ipo of psus, the closed-end fund. >> very interesting. >> i do have another story that i wanted to discuss with you because richard handler, the ceo of jefferies sent a note to their clients and he also posted it on his twitter and instagram accounts that i think you'll want to opine on, as well,

because it's a rather bullish letter on where he sees the capital markets going in the year ahead where he says, quote, the bottom line is this. the ipo market is open and there is meaningful demand for companies that have strong management and durable business models and solid long-term prospects. we are in the normal innings of a norm cal capital market cycle and one not contained is there are significant signs, and he does point to what's happened in the russell 2000, outperforming the s&p by 10% in july, and he sums up his note today by saying, nobody has a perfect crystal ball, but from what we see today we're optimistic that normal ipo activity levels are not that far away. it seems like a perfect story here to follow what you've just brought us about these plans from bill ackman and pershing square, but this sounds to me to be the most optimistic

commentary on the capital markets that i've heard in this entire period of interest rate hikes and all that. >> yeah. no, i think it's important to highlight what this means for the bull market because for the bulk of this year you've talked to people and it seems like the ipo market should be open. you've got stock markets hitting highs, near-record highs on a very frequent basis and volatility is low, why aren't we seeing more ipos and the reason is, just the overall concentration in the market tied to larger companies. so with the rotation, you have more small-cap names that serve as comparables to companies waiting in the wings to go public and it's easier when they're trading at higher valuations and it's want as important when you have a microsoft or amazon trading well in the market. it is important to see some of those smaller and mid-cap names

that serve as comparables. a boost in those names definitely serve well and bode well for companies looking to go public and get a decent valuation. >> yeah. it matches some of the optimism i think we've heard from the likes of david solomon, goldman sachs, the ceo, obviously, looking at bluer skies, leslie ahead for the capital markets and rich handler of jefferies has a pretty good front-row seat as to what's taking place. appreciate you very much, leslie, thank you, covering all things capital markets for us today. up next, we're setting you up for big earnings in overtime. do not forget about meta, qualcomm and arm holdings. they're among the big names reporting today and we'll tell you what to watch out for, plus icapital's anastasia amoroso at stinwith her reaction to what happened today with the fed. we'll take you into the market zone next. and inconvenient, but with a generac home standby generator,

and peace of mind they deserve. we don't have to worry about whether we lose power or not. if the utility company does not come through, our generac does. after the hurricane happened, we just want to be prepared for anything. 8 out of 10 home generators are generac, with thousands of satisfied customers. number one thing to prepare for is extended power outages. don't make it so hard on yourself, have a generac home standby generator. and owning a generator is easier than ever. special financing and low monthly payment options are available, and if you call now, you will also receive a free 5 year warranty valued at over $500. call or go online now to request your free quote.

okay, team! oh, thank you so much i couldn't have done it without you. honestly, i don't do a whole lot here. i'm really just here for the at&t internet, it's super-fast so, any pre-launch concerns? what if nobody buys them? that's mean or, what if everybody buys them? oh, i hadn't thought of that that's probably not gonna happen can we handle that kind of traffic? the network can handle it! i downloaded eight hours of true crime stories just during our last video call i'm learning a lot power e*trade's easy-to-use tools, like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis, help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley with powerful, easy-to-use tools, power e*trade makes complex trading easier. react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity.

e*trade from morgan stanley we are now in the closing bell market zone. anastasia amoroso is here to break down how these crucial moments of the trading day are shaping up, plus, we'll get you set up for all of the big earnings, and julia boorstin on meta looking ahead to arm, qualcomm and lam research. anastasia, nice to see you here. your reaction? >> rate cuts are coming and that's extremely good news for marks and that's why we are seeing this broad cheer across the different markets. we have a broader opportunity and they said if the fed cuts rates and here we are and what you see across the board, you see bonds rallying and stocks

ral sx rallying and the tech rallying and september even though fed chair powell didn't say it and the markets are clearly gearing up for that. >> there are suggestions and some straight-up saying it like jeffrey gundlach that the fed's always late and they're going to be late again and history has proven that out. they'll be too late to cut and the labor market and the economy are weaker than people think. >> look, that may be true, but what he also said is they have a lot of room to catch up and i agree with jeff, and i think that's one of the most critical questions for the markets right now, it's not about september, but how much more is the fed going to cut and how quickly? >> if they're looking at the markets, we'll get three rate cuts toward the end of the year about 100 basis points into the end of next year and if jeff is right and we have 150 basis points and even if they're behind a month or two that still propels the market higher. >> look, he says that because he

thinks these are his words, for the wrong reason that they have to cut that many times because, as he said, the economy's weak. >> yeah. i think if they make those moves in a decisive passion they can probably save the economy, so to speak. there's nothing broadly, but there are pockets of weakness and the pockets of weakness, for example, the delinquencies for some of the smaller companies and they see high yield default rates that are rising and i think if the fed acts decisively they can stop that. the reason why this is such a big deal for markets and this is a boost for the companies and the fact that you may get an auto loan that is a lot cheaper or a mortgage loan, if i had to stomach the pressure of higher rates this is a really big deal. >> what about the rotation trade, what happens to it now as the fed has set the table for

what will probably happen in september? >> i think it's on. i think the investors should be squarely focused on the beneficiaries from the fundamental standpoint. that's why i still think regional banks are the rotational raids and there are so many benefits as well as small caps and utilities and outperform the fed cuts. >> we're inching toward the close. anastasia, good to see you. you'll be back with me in just a moment and let's go to julia boorstin because she has meta, another big report coming in just a little bit. >> another big report is coming, indeed. an pinterest shares plummeted on disappointing third-quarter guidance, meta's outlook will be under particular scrutiny. the company's expected to report nearly 20% revenue growth, slowing from last quarter's 20% revenue growth and it's expected to report 59% growth in earnings

per share. after last quarter, mark zuckerberg is raising its capital expenditure guidance due to ai investments sent meta shares lower and capex will again be in focus as will any indication that it's going to ramp up spending further or that ai investments are paying off with consumers and advertisers. meta shares are up 50% over the past year, but the stock dipped recently and it's down about 11% in the past three weeks. scott? >> all right. it's going to be exciting. thank you very much, that's julia boorstin. he has his hands full, lam, qualcomm, talk us to. >> we're seeing just this huge chip rally going on here. microsoft gave a gift to chips saying it's going to spend more on capex this fiscal year which started in july, by the way, compared to last year.

alphabet and meta both signaled the same and the etf today up more than 7% last time it looked and for qualcomm and arm we'll be looking for color, in part, microsoft's pcs. qualcomm is making those processors for them and arm plays a role in the chip designs and nvidia starts making chips, and qualcomm's guidance will be a good read on smartphone demand and the important holiday quarter and it makes modems for iphone and any color on that. >> once again, you're hearing the sounds from the floor of the new york stock exchange as we head towards the closing bell in less than two minutes' time. trying to hold on to the substantial gains that we've had. we certainly are from the nasdaq's point of view. the russell 2000 -- because growth stocks like the mega-cap tech names are positive today. the dow has given back, though, a good amount of what it had

during the powell press conference. what do you think that's about? do you think any part of this market was hoping for a bigger cut in september and the fed chair sort of slammed the door on the idea of 50 basis points. >> the bond markets are pricing that in and there's a 20% probability and they were expecting 50. pricing going into the event and you typically consolidate after and that's what's happening with the powell conference, but i do like the move in chips, scott, but a lot of it has to do with the fact that meta and others are spending on ai capex. so i think you want to bethose stocks on this pullback. >> i think you have a guest ringing closing bell. >> it's coming. it's coming close. >> we'll make sure everybody knows. duly noted. amazon and apple, how perfect do

they have to be given what we've seen with alphabet and microsoft? >> they have to be perfect. they have to show revenue growth and acceleration on top of capex and acceleration and i'm not sure. >> all right. [ closing bell ringing ] >> now we have to wait and see and that is moments away into overtime. >> that bell marks the end of regulation. s synchrony, fed chair powell saying a rate cut is on the table as tech comes roaring back and we're into "closing bell overtime" along with morgan brennan. we have another huge hour of earnings on the way, headlined by meta, qualcomm and arm along with lam research, ebay, etsy and many more. >> former fed vice chair