thing, watching people eat on tv. it's never attractive, though, melissa. >> yeah, as a female, i try not to do that at all. i'm glad you did it, though. >> let's just mention real quick, dow jones looks like it's up about 82 points. nasdaq up about 86 points now. melissa, thank you for hanging out with us cross-atlantic here this morning. becky and joe are going to be back tomorrow. i'll still be here in paris at the olympics. make sure you join us. going to have the big jobs number. "squawk on the street" begins right now. ♪ good thursday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange. futures are solid coming off the best session for s&p nasdaq since february. ten-year, awfully close to 4% as jobless claims come in highest in a year. our road map begins with meta's big beat. stock is surging on its latest results. revenue up 22 following that

aggressive a.i. strategy. plus, the fed holding rates steady but chair powell saying the central bank could cut in september if datace continues o it current path. we have two big interviews coming up in the next hour or so. ceos of carvana and arm holdings, stocks moving in opposite directions, at least in the premarket. let's get to meta. jumping on this q2 beat and issuing a better than expected forecast. gains in the digital ad market, raising their spending guidance for its a.i. infrastructure, jim. capex guides pretty interesting, came in a little bit low, but raising for the full year. >> i love this. the amount of compute needed, this is for next year, this is mark. to train llama -- that's large language -- will be ten times more than what we used to train llama 3. that's writing a check to jensen huang for a huge amount of money, but the roi is so clear here because mark zuckerberg told you that meta a.i., which i

use and i find whimsical, is the number one. it's going to be number one. number one in the gpt sweepstakes. >> number one in the swee sweepstakes? wait. a.i. is clearly also benefitting their advertising business. >> oh, my. >> you're talking about two separate things here, correct? >> conflating -- i'm conflating greatness. if you go and listen to what he has to say, mark, about advertising, i love this. he says, "a.i. also going to significantly evolve our services for advertisers in some exciting ways. used to be advertisers came to us with specific audience. now they know the audience better than the advertisers. soon, all that will happen is that advertisers will basically just be able to tells us a business objective, a budget, and we'll do it better than they can." it's the end of a huge part of the economy. >> that is being powered by a.i., which is making ad buys more efficient, more effective, and that's obviously helping what was a top line that was very strong. but to your point, spending also

ramping up sharply. >> but he has no choice. >> in terms of capex. >> he has to meet the demand as opposed to, well, look, i keep coming back to alphabet, saying they have to be defensive in spending. zuckerberg is offering, carl, the best soup to nowiuts i've e seen, advertising targeted to exactly who you want, created by them, by machine, that's productivity. that's the beginning of what i say, okay, that's clear. there are companies that you used to go to with this and those companies right now are shaking. the people who work at them are shaking. >> we're starting to get clues about that, given today's productivity print and unit labor cost print. may be early. >> that's why i brought it up. i think we're going to see the change in the economy. lisa su said it to us, the ceo of amd. we're beginning to see solutions by machines that are better than humans, and david, this is not starlink or whatever you're going to bring up. this is just a very good way to do business. >> what? starlink? what are you talking about? >> whatever it is.

whatever he's using now. remember the scene in "terminator 2" and he says, wolfy. >> oh, you mean, my end of the world scenarios. >> yeah, the end of the world scenario is not happening. what's happening is that you can tell them, listen, i want to sell chocolate, which, by the way, hershey's better do r, because they didn't. i want you to target all the people who like hershey's kisses. in 30 seconds, they have a better commercial than you've ever seen. zuckerberg is so confident of this that it just -- it read like -- like roman conquerer. >> they're still benefitting from the old year of efficiency. it's been more than a year now, but there is obviously -- i wouldn't call it concern, but expectation that that's going to end. they did talk about meaningful increases in year-end. head count as well. >> yes. >> they're going to lap, of course, those job cuts from the fourth quarter of 2024. so, what are we talking about? capex is going to be, what, 37

to $40 billion. i mean, operating expense is obviously going to go up as well. >> now -- >> revenues are just going to keep accelerating? >> if i were -- now i know why alphabet's afraid. he's outspending alphabet. he's outspending everybody. obviously, that meeting -- >> he's not outspending microsoft. >> we don't know because microsoft has a lot of different moving parts, but for this specific notion of advertising, he is coming up with a solution that i think is going to drive a lot of traffic. and david, one of the things that's happened, i know you're going to love this because you're just going to laugh at me. this is the carrie situation with john travolta again. ray-ban meta glasses continue to be a bigger hit sooner than what we expected. what'd i tell you? >> you did. you're still losing, what, $4.5 billion on reality labs? is that right? >> $4.5 billion in reality lab losses, and those are going to extend, according to last night's call. >> yeah, but -- >> at the same time, jim, operating margin is up nine

points. >> that's the point. i mean, come on. the guy is obviously -- meta reality labs, all that is is the cost of doing business. i think there's a lot of stuff buried in that. quest 3, by the way, does praise it. but i think what's going on here, carl, is the revolution that jensen huang has been talking about. you don't -- where machines can do a lot of things better than humans, it's now here. '24 and '25. >> we just heard from costas and al michaels talking about voices getting copied. >> oh, absolutely. no, it's all very easy, and what's going on, we heard this was going to happen. this is video. and video is blackwell. video is blackwell. blackwell is going to be shipping in volume, and i don't know whether -- the rumor is that zuckerberg would have taken everything. >> i don't know if you can, but you've got to try to explain what that means. video is blackwell. first of all, blackwell is a chip that has yet to ship but will ship. what do you mean? >> you haven't -- guilty. guilty.

i'm pleading guilty right now. >> all right. >> you're a witness to the prosecution. >> now's your opportunity to explain. >> tyrone power is so cool. right now, we have a lot of print. remember when jensen huang told me -- and of course you don't -- that they can download "moby dick" in one second. >> read it. >> now they're going to be able to do a video and you'll be able to recall video. look, adobe has the solution that's really terrific right now. you can use firefly and it's terrific. >> how's that going to change our business? >> i thought he was a hologram. i'm answering a hologram. carl, which of the three of us is a hologram? >> i think we all know. >> i think we do too, jim. >> yeah. that's right. he's out. no, it's -- because what's happening is that you can say, look, i need a great ad, and then that's the end. you used to have a bakeoff. you had advertising. none of that. they'll change the ad literally every second if it would help. who needs an agency?

agencies are going to say, you do. but i think that what mark's -- what he's trying to do is say, look, now we have video. we can change video every second so why would you ever advertise anywhere else? this is a threat to youtube even, and we know youtube was hobbled in the previous quarter. >> 10% of the ad base basically now using gen a.i., some of it in creative ways, and mark talked about the way in which gen a.i.'s going to change all kinds of product offerings in the future. take a listen. >> i do think that part of what's so fundamental about a.i. is it's going to end up affecting almost every product we have in some way. it will improve the existing ones and will make a whole lot of new ones possible. it's why there are all the jokes about how all the tech ceos got on these earnings calls and just talk about a.i. all the time because it's actually super exciting and it's going to change all these different things over multiple time horizons. >> amen. he finally did it. look, he's authoritative.

he's an authoritative fella. and what he's basically saying is all that stuff about, you think a.i. is hype? wait a second. they're finding uses every day, and david, i keep coming back to that productivity number. if you keep finding uses, why do you need to hire as many people? >> you don't. you don't. >> and then you come back to, like, do i need you? i will always need you. >> you'll always need me? >> yes. ? i yeah, i think our viewers are well aware. ♪ >> whatever happened to the metaverse, jim? the company is still called meta. is this the metaverse? same thing? >> we're all in the metaverse. >> reality labs is still what you put the ray-bans -- >> the ray-bans are great. you can take pictures. you can say, what's that? you're on 14th street, and there's like a hubbub at whole foods, and you say to your -- this is actually true, okay? you say to your glass, what's that hubbub on 14th street?

and it comes back and says, whole foods is featuring pineapples for 35 cents. that's the reality. you've always wanted that. >> oh, yes, i love pineapple. i'm hoping for -- >> there's meant to be more of a rubric. >> what's on the line tonight for apple/amazon regarding all this spend? >> apple is harder because we want to hear whether alphabet is going to align with them or chatgpt because it's obvious -- look, siri is fabulous. i don't want to get too much into siri because siri will put on, play the springsteen song -- i was playing some great springsteen songs this morning. i don't know if you have been in touch with siri, but you can say, play "born in the usa" and it's really good now. we have to hear whether they need someone else as much as we think, and then amazon is just, again, like zuckerberg. amazon's going to say, you want advertising. you want to find it right here on our site. my problem is so many people use this and it's so easy to toggle

between my facebook and my ad or my insta and my ad that here i have to go through two steps. amazon's going to have to prove itself, whether that's a better advertising reward. it's not clear. >> we're also going to keep an eye on costs. we're going to keep an eye, to your point, advertising, i'm sure, will have once again been very strong. >> oh, geez. >> we've seen the complete dissolution of the old media. >> not the olympics, david. not the croissants. don't go there. >> other than the olympics, carl, i apologize. but i mean, the amazon numbers are going to be extraordinary in terms of advertising. i'm not saying they're going to beat or not beat, none of those things, but just the numbers themselves. not to mention back to the whole thing -- the idea of capex and how much is spent by these companies. >> we don't know. >> these hyperscalers. >> these are countries. we should stop calling them hyperscalers. >> i know we had that argument about power in terms of, will you buy actual electricity company? they're regulated. it's unlikely. but you were right in the larger context. power is all, as well,

incredibly important part of all this capex spend, securing the power, building the datacenter where it needs to be built, getting what you need from whatever provider you can get it from. >> well, rusty braziel comes out and says it's really only the northeast where it could happen. they need so much natural gas, there could be a deal. but yes. i think you're right. >> there's also talk, you go to states that have excess amount of power for these kind of things. montana. >> virginia's maxed out. >> may want to look at land in montana, jim. maybe you want to open your theme park there now. >> i looked at big sky about ten days ago. >> did you? >> i found a -- >> what happened with the ireland castle? >> that traded ahead. $8 million reno. >> oh. it's always a reno. always the reno. we'll take a quick break and get to the chip names. we'll look at arm and qualcomm, western dig.

we'll get to shack, etsy, carva d lkies t ananta yldashe bank of england joins canada in cutting. car, this isn't the way home. that's right james, it isn't. car, where are we going? we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!! the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. car, were you in on this? nothing gets by you james. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com

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get the fastest connection to paris with xfinity. tech moves on the move today include qualcomm, western dig, arm holdings. we are going to talk to rene haas next hour on "squawk on the street." there's nvidia setting a record for market cap gains in a single day yesterday. >> yesterday was an odd day. it was almost like it foretold what mark zuckerberg said on meta, but i have to say that when it got to 23 times earnings, it was a wake-up call, and i think people realized, wait a second, it's not that expensive. by the way, i don't think people realize, but meta's selling at 19 times earnings. 19 times earnings. i mean, these -- david, much hype. >> by the way, has been the case for some time. meta and alphabet have also typically traded at relatively lower multiples, and apple has

had -- >> apple's really in the cauldron today because that multiple has expanded dramatically. people feel that, wait a second, it's no longer just an iteration of phone, maybe service revenues, but david, that's going to be the tale of the tape, because it's so huge, and people just are acting like it's going to be fine no matter what welfare you're going to be here. we'll all be here to go through it tomorrow, getting unemployment number as well. that move in nvidia was extraordinary. when you're talking about adding $328 billion in market value, you're talking about adding more than the market cap of how many of the 500 s&p companies? probably 470 of them. >> let me give you another statistic. carl, lost $800 billion from peak to trough, which is bigger than all but seven stocks in the market. it's not like it made back all that it's lost yet. not at all. >> what do we make of the arm and the western dig guidance today? >> they have this internet of things stuff that is -- we'll talk to rene haas, surprisingly

weak, and it's quizzical. by the way, it wasn't like qualcomm was spared either. i mean, rene actually, it was the cfo who dropped this kind of mini-bomb, saying, internet of things wasn't as strong. i said, whoa, i didn't know that. it was new to me. >> qualcomm is interesting because the number itself looked strong. >> yes. >> now you've got to keep in mind the stock, if you take a look, i think it was down 13% over just the last three weeks. >> yes. >> like so many of these other companies that we have been talking about and their stocks. so, you see the beat. sales. but they say some nice things about a.i. on the call, including that beyond head sets and pcs, they expect on-device a.i. to drive competition. they also talked about the smartphone market as "kind of flattish to a low single-digits

growth. the premier tier is growing faster and we've seen that." that took some in favestors by surprise and that turned the stock around premarket. >> you did get this moment in the call where they did a guide and the guide, first one -- first quarter of '25 might look similar to the first quarter of '25, they said. that means it's plaus 5%, but people are looking for plus 9%. that's what happened. it was right in the call. >> there it is that we're talking about. >> i thought it was shocking, frankly. i don't get it. chri cristiano amon. david, what does this say about where intel is with arm really taking share, amd really taking share? what does it say? >> intel is just living to fight another day, don't you think? build those plants, become the leader once again. if taiwan is not defended under

a potential trump administration, they'll be in a very good position, won't they? >> very good answer. >> won't they? >> yes, very good answer and very diplomatic and better than what i would have said. >> they're laying off people to cut costs. >> the worst dow stock of the year. mobileye is going to open down 14. >> what happened? >> just on numbers. >> it hurts. it got hertz'ed. that's not jalen hurts. >> you don't want to get hertz'ed. >> we will talk about some cars, bunch of figures out of the european automakers, carvana, goodyear, toyota, race. we'll get cramer's "d madash" and the opening bell in less than ten minutes.

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all right, seven minutes to where we get started with trading here at the new york stock exchange. "mad dash" time. so many earnings to cover this morning. and a lot of movers on it, including wayfair. >> this is a brand a lot of people know very well at home. it's one i use. it's one my daughters use. it's what you want to fill up a room with furniture, you use it, especially in an office. david, it looks like that what rh was saying, gary friedman, has now extended to wayfair.

wayfair is saying customers remain cautious on home spending and our credit card data now mirrors the magnitude of the peak to trough decline the home furnishing space experienced during the great financial crisis. >> no kidding. >> i'm not kidding. >> taking it back to '08-'09? >> that's why i thought this was really important. if you're jay powell, and you're watching our show wrigright now you're listening to wayfair and saying, it's no longer rh. it's no longer rh. and i think that that's very significant because "w" is pretty much inexpensive. i always think high quality, but it's inexpensive. if you don't have enough to buy this kind of furniture and we can't buy hamburgers, wimpy, then i got to tell you, this economy is the new -- >> sounds to me like they should have cut yesterday. wayfair should have let them know. >> i don't think that's wrong. the numbers that i'm getting from different companies are they should have cut yesterday. >> interesting. >> the dropoff is really rather significant, and we haven't seen

department stores, which i'm told are going to be horrendous. >> we have so many other earnings to cover this morning. we'll try to get to a lot of them. opening bell about five minutes from now. you can catch us any time, anywhere, listening to and following the "squawk on the street: opening bell" podcast. welcome to the now way to network... they switched to juniper's ai-native network. so they can take their game to a whole new level... that's the now way to network at work— with real ai— letting you rise above it all. with fidelity income planning, a dedicated advisor can help you grow and protect your wealth. they'll help you create a flexible strategy designed to balance growth and guaranteed income so you can enjoy the life you've created.

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>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. if we were to see, for example, inflation moving down quickly, or more or less in line with expectations, growth remains, let's say, reasonably strong, and the labor market remains, you know, consistent with its current condition, then i would think that a rate cut could be on the table at the september meeting. >> that's the fed chair from yesterday afternoon talking about both sides of the dual mandate, saying he doesn't want to see more deterioration in the labor market. jim, claims were the highest since august today. >> it's happening quickly, and we're going to speak to ernie

garcia, the ceo of carvana, and they're the second largest in the used car market, and used car prices are now almost back to 2019. they were one of the worst parts. all that really -- that jay powell has that's bad is homes, and what we found was what you take the mortgage rate up, it doesn't build more homes. so, that's really the only sticking point. i think it's important to point out that food has not come down. that's why people are going to costco and walmart. and clothing has not come down. that's why people are going to tjx. that's just the way it is. the customer has changed the behavior radically in the last 90 days. >> big "journal" piece today, the era of high food inflation is over. >> it's over. >> and the warnings we've gotten lately, jim, from nestle, you mentioned hershey earlier. >> hershey was really, really bad. that was a major miss. david, what's happened, i think, is that a lot of companies thought they'd get away with it, you know that? they thought that the consumer didn't notice.

that's one of the reasons why i like mcdonald's. they saw it. >> hershey says, consumers pulling back on discretionary spending. that hedge on cocoa is not going to last that long. >> shows that the weakest part of the s&p so far is discretionary items, and it's almost double what it was before. that's who's missing their numbers, and i think that powell should be looking at that because it's -- it's not some government figure. it's real world. >> yeah. let's get the opening bell here. at the big board, it's a moment of magic, a nonprofit focused on improving the lives of vulnerable and underserved children. at the nasdaq, it's first tee, metropolitan new york, a youth development organization as we open up around 5,540, jim. speaking of government numbers, we will get a jobs number tomorrow, and i know you just argued renaissance macro that maybe if these prints keep

coming in like this, the fed will be seen as behind the curve. >> i think the fed may not recognize what mark zuckerberg recognized, which is things are happening so quickly that you really -- if you are, let's say, you're at an advertising firm and you listened to last night's call and you were going to add 25 people. instead, you're probably trying to subtract 25 people. by the way, just like with the food companies, no one wants to admit anything's weak. it's really -- i've got to tell you, as someone trying to figure out companies, there's almost no one who will say, listen, we see you got to cut numbers. i keep getting the idea they're not going to hire a lot of people anymore. people are not being replaced. it's really a moment right now where the high-end and the low end are under pressure. high end and low end. >> what do you make of this ten-year flirting with the 3%? >> the government has so much debt. remember all we ever heard about, except for josh frost, the hero of the person who makes the rates and the desk schedule, all we heard about was this was

going to be 1996, '97 where they're all refinancing and you look at the bonds. if you look at the bonds, you want to buy stocks. >> that is a good question as to at what point you do actually -- we haven't seen the move out of money markets, so to speak. >> no, we have not. >> and everybody talks about -- it may not happen. >> katy huberty said it. >> it's not bad. 4.2%. that said, it's not 5.2%, which was not that long ago. >> b of a has a great chart today looking at what happens to stocks after the first cut. six months -- no. three months later, up ten on the s&p. six months later, up 12. >> this is the best time from here 'til we -- we're going to have a fall rally based on what we've historically had, except for we do have an election year and we do not have an incumbent running. incumbent usually has helped the situation. i mean, historically. i'm not saying -- i'm not making a political -- >> no, you're right, and it's going to be interesting to see a

rate cut in an election cycle that close to the vote. >> right. >> but it does appear likely it's going to happen. certainly, the market expects it, and if we don't get it for some reason, i would assume we don't get that kind of rally that was just -- >> or maybe we get 50 where the odds are 12%. >> look -- >> we're looking to wayfair earnings, hearing from hershey saying consumer's pulling back. >> bedrock. bedrock, okay? and you see etsy. that's another that just didn't deliver a good quarter. >> yeah, josh silverman was a guest earlier. what happened at etsy? >> it just -- josh was on, but they didn't have any growth, and this, again, carl, no growth, decline in growth. we have -- we have had this halcyon time for so long where when you look at the charts, almost every company, discretionary is doing pretty well, but they raised prices too much. >> it's a great point. among the companies cutting guidance today, we mentioned

hershey, we mentioned mobileye, host hotels after marriott yesterday. >> marriott was really disappointing. >> moderna on this eu weakness. >> and don't forget, anything china. i mean, anything china. david, if you sell things in china, forget it. forget it. >> just forget it? lights out, turn 'em out? >> it's china. >> done? >> really amazing because they -- they're not even -- they're skimping on things that they never used to. the only thing that they're still spending on that i can tell is clean water. >> that's a nasty decline. that is always a volatile stock, moderna, anybody who's watched it for any period of time knows that, but that's -- that's a lot. >> they cut the full-year guide, jim, by like a billion dollars on the range. >> i know. it didn't acquit himself that morning. >> excuse me? he didn't acquit himself? >> he didn't acquit himself well. >> he didn't? well, how would he have acquitted himself, given the quarter? what are you supposed to do? >> he didn't try to come up with some -- he did try to say some

good things but it was drowned out by the chart. >> i'll give you a kelanova. you like your pop tarts? pringles? >> that was a great promotion. >> well, the stock is up 4.5%. >> it's doing great. >> adjusted basis operating profit, double-digit operating profit growth sustained. they say they're getting margins back where they'd like them. sym stock performing quite well this morning. >> it's very anti- -- let's put it this way. this company is much better run, and i think a lot of it is steve, because this thing is a glp-1 nightmare, okay? i mean, you know, david, have you ever had those rice krispie bars? are you a pringles guy? >> once you start on pringles, it's hard to stop. >> that's a different -- that's lay's. >> once you pop, you can't stop. is that pringles? >> i don't know. yeah. >> it comes in a sleeve. >> yeah, i know.

i love pringles. i enjoy eating them occasionally, but not often. and pop tarts, you can buy them by the pack right here before you get in the subway, take a couple of those on the train uptown. >> good to know. >> delicious. >> but anyway, i think he's doing a remarkable job, particularly basis we know from the glp-1 new stuff that david said everybody takes, that you shouldn't have a craving for kellanova. >> how about this two-year trial on zepbound? >> you could argue if you're lilly, although the stock hardly is up because it now a no longer favored stock in this market. heart failure cuts by 38% versus placebo, hospitalization, and other bad outcomes. what this says is, look, let's just prescribe it, because the government can't deniy it anymore. >> what it really says is, being fat is not good for your health. that's my big takeaway here. >> you -- you're a genius. >> thank you >> a genius.

>> at leand it leads to a lot o other better health outcomes. >> is that why you swim a lot? >> yes, it is. >> ledecky over here. >> did you see the 1,500 yesterday? >> i actually have not watched the 1,500. >> dominant. >> she has 20 of the top times ever recorded. >> she's a comcast machine. >> she is the greatest of all time, without a doubt. she's amazing. yeah. >> and nice too. >> i treasure my -- when i met her years ago at the u.s. open. i took a picture with her, katie. john ledecky is her uncle. yes, and i have been in the pool a lot lately, trying to hit that olympics for the certain age over, certain height below, you know, the whole thing. if i can just get it right. >> speaking of diet, jim, not hurting shack, opened up 16%. >> shack, amazing, the high-end burger did well. the numbers were very, very

good. congratulations to them. that was just a really excellent quarter, and unexpected, given that we've heard -- what we heard from mcdonald's, which is obviously doing this nationwide experiment for the $5. i have to tell you that i thought that wendy's was going to miss really bad, and they didn't. 5.8% yield, kind of interesting, wednesday's. they get it together, it will be really great. what do you got? what you got for me? ain't got nothing? >> i got a lot for you. whatever you'd like. whamd ywhat what would you like? the arbitration got pushed back to may of next year. >> which one? >> chevron hess. >> that thing -- what the heck? what is mike thinking? >> quite some time between chevron and exxon over the gugu guyana property. the arbitration got pushed to may of 25025 and then you'll ge

a decision in the following three months. so, this thing, while they say -- they remain committed to the merger and look forward to combining the two companies, it's going to take them a long time unless they get a bad result in arbitration, in which case they got really trouble. >> i wonder if they knew going into this that this could be the nightmare. i have one for david. this is a good one. david, do you know the stock how i met your mother? it's the number one stock that i follow. >> i don't know what you're talking about. >> how i met your mother. it's a company called how met. our chief scientist for "mad money" said, call this how i met my mother. this is a fast internet company for planes and forgens for planes. it's the all alcoa. it is the how i met your mother is the number one performing stock in my lexicon. >> it's up almost 100% over the last 12 months. >> because they've got the --

there's two million screws in a 787. >> that's a lot of screws. >> that's a lot. whole lot of screws. >> to our point yesterday, jim, about industrials, leading again. ch robinson, air products, fmc. >> i have cummins on tonight, and i salute them. they have 70,000 natural gas trucks. they have -- oh, man, this is fantastic. i'm so glad we have them. they are just a technology machine, and people regard engines as, like, give me a break, but they have engines that can run on any -- jen has engines that can run on any fuel. whatever you need. this is the new economy writ large, and that company is a just typically, you can't make money in cyclicals. that's a tech machine. >> back to howmet for a second. precision parts, are they in that business too? >> yeah, although people said it's not doing that well. i think at this point in the

cycle it's probably doing very well. by the way, if boeing can get its act together we're going to get like 0.5% gdp here. >> boeing, the worst dow stock at the moment but big news regarding the new ceo yesterday. >> look, i think that boeing has cash flow issues. that's kind of what -- i mean, i'm not saying that they're in trouble. i'm just saying they would do better if they raised a lot of mus money. that would be a godsend. >> jim, lot of geopolitics swirling around crude. some discussion this morning about brent call options, the highest yesterday in several months. >> well, i think that the people who buy -- unless they really think there's going to be a vent, they have to recognize that we have companies in our country that are just begging for that thing to go up two bucks so they can make their quarter. i just think that people don't know. we're running below what we could at the permian. there are people who say that's because the permian is being tapped out. no. there are a lot of companies just waiting for prices to go up a little and then it's just,

boom >> you do think there's a ceiling on -- >> absolutely. unless there's a sudden shock overnight, these companies will be able to meet it. by the way, natural gas too. natural gas is like, okay, we have tons, we have much more that we can uses, and i've got to tell you, i see this stuff and say to myself, why do people fool around with these stocks unless there's an event? wow, do we have a lot of oil. a lot. >> well, natural gas is -- yeah. >> natural gas, yeah. >> by far the biggest in the world. >> that may play into the larger energy question we've been discussing for some time, in to terms of providing power for these datacenters that have yet to be built and will need an enormous amount of power. >> you've completely bought into any rap. >> i'm well aware of the power issues. >> you bought into my rap -- >> i argued with you when you said they were going to buy an electric company >> i think that -- no, i said they're going to buy a nat gas company, if they were smart. >> you're right, you said a nat

gas company. >> jim, you said there were talks, i don't make stories up, and you don't make stories up. >> i try not to. >> the other guys do, and they get away with it. what is that all about? >> i don't know, jim. i don't know. >> wayfair to merge with rh, let's just float that and then see if it gets picked up. got to be careful. someone will say i really mean that. >> he did not mean that. >> nvidia shares continue that momentum, created from yesterday. the stock up another 1.85%, obviously, we talked a lot about meta at the top of the program. those shares have sustained an almost 9% gain, and amazon, up another 1.5% ahead of the print. >> i don't know. i kind of -- i want people who have never listened to a conference call, they should go to zuckerberg. zuckerberg has gone from these very spartan, no, you know, flowery talk to a fabulous conference call. well orchestrated conference call the way nike was before it fell apart.

>> yes. one thing we didn't mention, jim, you know, crowdstrike was such an important story for tech last month where these comments out of sentinel one saying that it was not an honest mistake, that it was the product of bad design. crowd's down another percent today. >> i read that last night, and that was one of the most fiery attacks that i have read of one company versus another. what he said about kurtz and what he said about crowdstrike was just incredible. and i know i thought that crowdstrike would bottom. i didn't know that you have someone like him just after these guys. i really didn't. i haven't seen the company called out by another company in a long time. >> represents a real opportunity for them to take market share, right? why not press your advantage? >> it is -- i would say that when i read it, i had to read it twice because it was so negative. i had it on my insta. he says, "sentinel one ceo and

crowdstrike not justified." he goes in and says that, i would say that he calls it not an honest mistake. >> yeah. >> i mean, that -- that means delta -- i'm taking the derivative here -- delta says they lost $500 million, okay? you call tomer on the witness stand. it's bad. i mean, he might be an expert witness. >> he might be a little biased. i'm not sure i'd allow -- >> you mean because he's the chief competitor? all right. i'm just pointing it out. >> i don't know if you've seen these charts this morning of met, all state, and aflac all setting new highs for the year, all with results. >> look, a lot of people stayed away from this group, including chubb, which is my favorite, because people said, you know what, they're not going to do as well when rates come down. well, you know what? that was just a dumb call. these companies are really a.i.-oriented. they -- i keep -- david, you'll like this.

progressive is the one company. it's flo. it uses a.i. instantly to adjust prices. flo. >> flo. yeah. i've seen the ads. >> pmi does not go with the program. >> the endless ads. >> what? >> from flo. >> progressive is the one that changes prices instantly. >> and the guy's name is? no idea. >> no idea. no idea. he's featured even more now. >> i don't think jake -- >> i'd be a little concerned. what's his name? >> do you think jake uses a.i. as much as flo? jake? >> jake from state farm? i don't know. >> i think that flo has the a.i. cornered and jake ought to spend some time reading zuckerberg's conference call and get some ray-bans. >> jamie. that's it. >> another 40-point gain for the s&p. manufacturing pmi is out a couple moments ago. let's get to rick santelli. >> hi, carl. indeed, these are the final reads for s&p global on the manufacturing pmi. remember, two weeks ago, this number came out at 49.5, weakest

of the year. well, moves up a tenth. but it still remains the weakest level under 50 since the end of last year, and by the way, 10 of the 12 readings were under 50. so, not necessarily a very good read here and i do want to point out the bank of england for the first time since 2020 cut rates to 5% and gave very little guidance, and i will give you some guidance. don't touch that remote. "squawk on the street" will return after a short break.

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garcia usually on "mad money" many times joins us first on cnbc now. i have to join adam jonas in almost saying congratulations. you tried -- he had to hold back because it was such a great quarter. thank you for coming on the show. >> thanks for having us. really appreciate it. >> this line so antithetical to the industry you're in, almost like you're not in the same industry, it is very rare to be the fastest growing and profitable company in the category. people should understand that there's only been one way to make money, sell so many cars and try to do it with ribbon gross margins. you're not doing that at all. >> yes. we started this company 11 years ago and we decided to build something that was totally different and that meant a completely different supply chain, ton of investment over the last 11 years we've invested about $10 billion in trying to build a different supply chain and all that fixed cost investment is coming back and

paying off and showing up in lower variable costs and we can give customers a great experience, grow efficiently and hit milestones like having the best and most profitable quarter of any automotive retailer ever. >> sold over 100,000 cars in q2. that makes you right there almost at the top, doesn't it? >> >> we're number two right now, but our sights are set much higher so we'll keep going. >> okay. so you have an offering that's being done and wasn't clear to me, some of your stock, but i thought it was interesting, maybe you can give us the number, you list as one of the risk factors, short sellers making up stuff about you. is that still a problem? >> you know, you've been doing risk factors more detailed than i have, it sounds like. there are stories out there, always going to be stories, we don't focus too much on that. we always just try to keep our head downs and moving forward. i think there's that old famous saying in the short run the

stock market is a voting machine and long run a weighing machine. w we're working on building mass. >> hertz are accelerating the inventory which are, yes, teslas, in large part. are you a buyer of used teslas and are they selling well? >> sure. let me answer that more broadly. i think we sell kind of the cars that americans love. you know, we look at what customers are buying and buy those from customers and at auction and then we recondition them and ready for sale and sell them to our customers. we're seeing equinoxes, and jeep grand cherokee, all the cars, escapes. it also means we attract a customer that's a little bit younger and affluent and sell evs. we have a higher market share in evs. our tesla car model 3 we sell a lot as well. we're trying to make sure buying a car is easy and fun and giving

them what they want. >> someone said look, you sape that you love your customers, are you going to cut them in for more of the profits now that you're making money and i think people should listen to your answer because actually i still think that you're true to the customer more than anybody else. >> yeah. i think something that's always true of every company when you start you have to build something better for customers or have no chance. what would be easy for customers they age and mature to focus on margins or this or that financial number but at the end of the day all that ha matters is your customers want your product more than anyone else's product. we're focused on continuing to make gains. we've made enormous gains in the last year, improved our unit economics $2,000 holding our customer offering flat. that's incredible and if we can continue to do that means we're going to have a lot of gains to give back to customers to further separate our offering and that's the dream. want to build a great company and want our customers to love what they get. >> looking at a chart of the stock we remember before the

turnaround took place, shares got inexpensive, lot of doubts and headlines of near death experiences. was there anything about that time that fundamentally changed the way you think about running the business? >> i'm going to tell a brief story if it's okay. i think we started this company in 2013 and launched out of phoenix, arizona. we were capital intensive. had a finance arm. we struggled to raise venture capital. we went public after four years, very early in a company's life to go public. for most of or the first part of that i don't think we were that well received. we were one of the worst ipos in 2017, came out at 15 bucks, 8 bucks a couple weeks in. by '21 people thought we were on to something and that was a nice brief moment and then, you know, car prices went up, rates went up. we made a bet on our future and financed it with that. investor perspective changed in '22 and our stock went down 99%.

that's not part of the dream and not something you foresee or imagine. in those moments unfortunately i think the reality is people will line up to kick you when you're down. you wake up every morning and -- >> who didn't line up. >> people do unfortunately line up. if you want to make a friend for life extend your hand when someone is having a tough time and it will help. i think the people inside carvana, they responded incredibly well and for that i will be forever grateful. in those moments the biggest risk is if people decide to give up and the people in carvana came together, did our best work. one of our values we're in this together. that's an easy thing to right on the wall and hard to make true. you get tested and the people have done an incredible job. thank you so much. you did this. >> ernie, i think -- i bought a car from you guys for somebody and they didn't like the car and i returned it. the stock was at three bucks. this is a win. got to love this stock. you had help. you had people from big private

equity company came in to help you? >>, so i think early on we had some great investors. along the way we had a lot of investors that stuck with us and believed in us. we've certainly had interactions with different debt holders and everything that have been supportive. i think, you know, these things never happen alone. that's just not how it works. building anything is always a about thele. always harder than you imagine up front and you have to get lucky along the way or it's not going to happen. we've been lucky to catch a couple breaks and we've been very lucky to accumulate a team that's been resilient and able to fight. i'm extremely proud and grateful and i think we have a lot left to do. >> keep that humility. because i know when you you were down you came on air and you didn't duck us. came on air and you did the right thing. i want to thank you. i've got to tell you, if you saw -- i don't know if you guys bought one of these cars. the ceo much carvana, i'm laughing because the person i

bought the car for said i don't really like that. in the old days you had to eat it. pick up this car. i don't want this car. they came up. didn't owe money. >> pretty amazing. >> thanks to ernie. you're going to stick around for renee haas. >> i have time on my hands. >> 10-year 4.08 don't go anywhere. m really just here for the at&t internet, it's super-fast so, any pre-launch concerns? what if nobody buys them? that's mean or, what if everybody buys them? oh, i hadn't thought of that that's probably not gonna happen can we handle that kind of traffic? the network can handle it! i downloaded eight hours of true crime stories just during our last video call i'm learning a lot

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." rick santelli here with the last breaking news of the morning. construction spending for the month of june expected to be up a couple tents. not meant to be. down 0.3%. we have back-to-back negative numbers. minus 0.1 last month gets dramatically changed to minus 0.4. minus 3 and 4, these are back-to-back negatives that hasn't occurred since the fourth quarter of '22. look at ism manufacturing for the month of july, headline number, expected to be above --

excuse me below 50, is below 50. 46.8. the weakest level month over month since july of last year, so we'll basically call it one year, one year prices paid expecting a number in the vicinity of 51.8. 52.9. that's higher than 52.1. 52.9 is the biggest prices paid going in the wrong direction since may of this year when it was 57. even though it's higher we have made progress. last month's 52.1 was the second lowest reading of the year. the lowest reading of the year, of course, was 52.5. that was earlier both of those, of course, were very tight. if we look at the new order component 47.4. look at that number the lightest since may of last year and finally employment on a very important week where we had a

light employment level on wednesday from adp and the jobs report for july tomorrow, 43.4. that's the weakest level going all the way back to june much 2020. we'll call it four years. carl, back to you as we flirt with 4% and under. >> yeah. first time in about six months. thanks, rick santelli. good thursday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with david faber, leslie picker, cramer stuck around here at post nine of the new york stock exchange. for this interview this hour with arm ceo rene haas. breakdown those results in just a moment as rick mentioned, we have lost opening gains. dow mildly negative and the 10-year does cross below 4 for the first time. >> happy august. we're about 30 minutes into the trading session. here are movers we're watching today. meta and arm both beating system, but really mirror images here moving in opposite directions on guidance.

you can see meta up 10%, arm down 12%. we'll dig into both. c.h. robinson shares popping, better than expected profits by cost cutting measures up 18% and moderna plummeting after slashing its full-year guidance in the wake of weak sales overseas and a competitive u.s. market for respiratory vaccines. those shares down 15%. meantime, it is the beginning of a new month. jim, we know about historical seasonal weakness going into august, september, october. >> yes. although i do know that there is supposed to be a wave, and this is a note from larry williams the greatest market technician i know, begins august 5th. bottom here and come out. actually a big wave. a lot of it will be key on what apple says.

they don't know if it's going to drop first and start going up. >> we'll see tonight. >> this is a big day and there's only four really important and one of them that we have to focus on is arm. arms shares are falling after guidance that was a little bit light, but that said, totally revenue up 39% year over year. ceo rene haas joins us now to break down the numbers. rene, always a pleasure to see you. but i also want people to understand, you were cautious on some part but let's go over what's great first that is what you're doing with the tech titans and how you are now the most ubiquitous processer in history. i want you to have the floor on that before we go into the difficult guidance. >> well, thank you, jim. it's great to be here. thanks for having me. you stated very well, arm is the most ubiquitous micro processer commute platform income history. we are in every digital device you can get your hands on.

we estimate 70% of the world's population touches arm in some way in the data center, the cars, that's in pcs, that's in mobile phones. every digital device runs on arm in some way, and the reason that's so important in terms of thinking about our company going forward is that the platform in terms of going forward relative to growth, et cetera you can't build a digital device without arm. so whether thinking about growth in the data center with ai or security cameras it's going to run on arm. we're bullish about our long-term prospects. >> people should understand one of the reasons that is the case a lot don't understand what makes a winner here. so many people write software for you and that's what makes you dominant, correct? >> it is the software, thank you for the great setup. there's been a lot of compute platforms and micro processors over decades but what makes a compute platform sticky is the software.

the operating system and all the applications that run need to run on a micro processer. so when you think about your iphone, android phone, ios android, when you think about your pc, mac os, windows, when you think about your automobile that runs software all of that runs on arm. importantly you have decades that have been spent not only writing that software, optimizing it, tweaking it for performance, and as a result, to switch that out is just a gigantic piece of work that people don't have time to invest in because people are investing in adding more new capabilities such as ai. it's really all about the software and it's a software that really makes it so sticky. >> rene, before get to the negative stuff i want people to understand up a double on this already. went up a lot you said -- jason, your cfo, continued weakness in internet of things and equipment. that strikes me as someone

trying to figure out what the economy is doing as maybe some sort of economic weakness because these are in general cyclical businesses and looks like -- they're not troughing yet. >> yeah. i think the important thing whether you look at arm, is you have to understand our business. we have two components. we have a licensing business about r&d and that is investment in new technology and products. our licensing was up 72% year on year and growth in demand because to design these advanced products people need more compute capabilities. for example, the chips running some of these ai workloads when they were designed llama was not invented. we're seeing people needing to invest more and more in new chips that drives licensing which is about 40% of our revenue we saw growth. the other component is royalties and it's well documented that somebody markets that are slowing have not completely recovered but we're seeing great

growth in other markets. our cloud business was up 75%. double digits up in automotive. smartphone units have been flatish but up 50% year on year in smartphones. for us you need to look in the long game in terms of the mix, but licensing is really the canary in the coal mine about investment new r&d. if that's going up that's great for arm. royalties because we're everywhere. not every market is up to the right. yes, true, there are a few markets that have not recovered. >> can you give us more color on your licensing pipeline as you say you're bullish about the long-term prospects how long does that take to really filter into royalties? >> yeah. it's a great question. thank you for asking that. it takes about a couple years from the time we license technology to the time it shows up in royalties. that's really a function of the time the ip is licensed by the

customer, put it in the chip, to an end product, say a smartphone and goes into production. it's about two years for smartphones. probably the same for pcs. a bit longer for data center and automotive. it's a great leading indicator of where our business is going. if you see licensing up and licensing has been frankly fantastic for the four quarters we've been public that's a leading indicator of more arms in the future. >> we talked about earlier the previous hour that the worst performing stock in the dow is intel. now i would have expected that intel would have got an lot of the cpu business and the data center but seems like this may be almost a game, set, match zero sum where you took it all. >> well, the data center market is a really interesting market because up the that traditional data center market and arm had momentum in that market. we picked up amazon, we picked

up microsoft, google announced a chip. great growth in general purpose compute. that's because of arm versus x 86 and other architectures. the growth driver for us is going to be the ai data centers and these ai data centers as you know are very, very complex. they're extremely power hungry. much more so than a traditional data center. they benefit from customization, building a custom system, blade, custom rack, custom chip, really, really gives strong benefit in terms of pricing performance. that's why you see something like grace hopper and grace blackwell. that type of solution could not be built any other way other than with arm. i think that is going to be a tailwind for us in terms of ai data center growth because the customization and power efficiency lends itself well to ai data center. >> rene, you know, on that subject, there are a number of investors at least who start to

question how long the growth can continue in terms of the spend we talk about, numbers we've seen never the likes of. you've had a long career and never seen anything like it. a point you think it hits the wall, i don't know if it's 2026 or when it may be or does spend continue unabated for a long period of time? >> yeah. i don't like how long i've been at this but ich i have lean a lot of trends over time. with ai what is driving the spend and why would it continue? one of the things that we have found with these large language models generative ai that require a tremendous amount of compute to get smarter. the smarter they get the more you teeneed to tune the models more compute you need to make it smarter. ai, whether agi, asi, we're not there yet. i do think there will be more

and more investment and i think yul saw it in some of the companies that announced more capex into this. i think the thing that gets disaggregated a little bit is the business models that support all that capex and honest will i think that's not the right way to look about it because it's like maybe going back to the internet of 2001 and looking at the business models back in that time saying gosh, you can't make money with web so there isn't going to be an internet going forward that's sill will i. business models are divorced from the capability. i think ai is going to be the most transformative type of technology we've seen in our lifetimes. just relative to the benefits you get whether self-driving, whether it's drug research, areas around education, we're still in very, very early days in my opinion. >> yeah. i can remember talking to your control shareholder softbank run by massa some time back about the benefits of the society from ai and this is years ago. how much is he involved in terms of pushing you in other,

perhaps, areas that he sees as growth opportunities? >> yeah. massa loves ai as you know. massa also loves arm. so we talk quite frequently about the long-term strategies for the company and opportunity. he's very, very excited about the long-term prospects for the company as am i. we're aligned in terms of the vision for the company. >> rene, there's a chart in your deck that's really incredible which is ai on arm, energy efficiency from the data center to the edge, cloud compute and nvidia. is it not true one of the reasons you have a close relationship with jensen huang, is that he cares more about heat than anyone in the business and you deliver the most energy efficient piece of hardware and software? >> yeah. exactly. and i think it's not just the chip, jim. obviously, grace brackwell the ability to combine arm cpus with

nvidia gpu for a world class solution delivers a bit of from a chip but that allows a complete customization as i said of a total system. nvidia is delivering not just grace blackwell but delivering an entire solution, entire system and you can't do that starting with a random set of components. it requires a tighter integration of the design. again, arm is really, really strong with customization because you can build almost anything you like. the fact that we're more power efficient than the competition is somewhat natural we're going to find our way into all those solutions. >> well, thank you, rene. that's terrific. i think that people should understand that you are very level-headed guy. you root for the wrong nfl team. that can happen to anyone. rene haas, ceo of arm holdings, not going to reveal his team because it's horrible that i would be making fun of him. >> thanks to rene. markets turned a bit but -- >> i'm so glad that we have

cummings on. people have to understand is that technology is in companies like kummins. the future. we have to have truck engines be clean and efficient. what she's done and what the company has done is remarkable. that's who we should be singing the praises of. not companies that make it one hour save in a documentary out of five hours. that's what's happening. >> important night. we'll see you. >> this is amazon and apple and david i think is going to play in this. >> nice. >> i'm going to play? >> i'll be here. you will too. >> i will. thank you for pointing that out. >> thank you. as we head to break our road map for the hour. meta shares surging on its latest results as their ai strategy pays off. one analyst who raised his price target. >> the saga conditions. bill ackman's pershing square withdrawing its plans for an ipo

a closed fund. leslie and i will talk those details. >> "squawk on the street" heads to paris. the latest from the ground at the olympics as "squawk on the street" continues after this break.

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latest policy meeting keeping rates unchanged. joining us to talk about the road ahead former dallas president rob kaplan, vice chairman at goldman sachs. nice to have you on set. >> good to be here. >> impressions from yesterday. >> >>. >> i think jay powell did what he needed to do. he didn't commit to a september hike but set the stage for a september hike. he reminded people that the risks are now more in his words two-sided, more balanced, labor market is normalizing and i think he set up so they have the opportunity to cut in september, but only if the data continues to confirm improvement in inflation. >> meantime, today claims highest in almost a year. >> right. >> this manufacturing pmi number not strong. if nfp is weak tomorrow will we hear they are late and some argue that could be remedied. >> my own view and probably the view of our economists at goldman sachs are the economy is

weakening. maybe the labor force is normalizing. the economy not falling out of bed. now if that turns out to be wrong, you'll see the fed move more aggressively, but i think in the neighborhood much where they should be. >> does the economy need to fall out of bed to get a cut. >> no. >> you think it's better to be pro active? >> as long as you continue moderation in inflation particularly in the service sector. the inflation issue today is not in goods. manufacturing being weak is confirming goods are disinflating. the service sector where the inflation is. as long as we see continued moderation i think you'll get a cut in september. the only caution i would give people should not over read what the fed will do after september. i'm not sure this is going to be a typical cycle. >> what about financial conditions. a quote from moody's, financial conditions are to the especially

tight, banks must proactively address ongoing credit and margin challenges even if rate cuts ease some pressures. in other words don't count on these rate cuts to solve rising delinquencies or other credit quality issues. >> the issue on the positive side credit spreads are tight, mid cycle type, early mid cycle type. to the extent banks are having credit issues, it has to do with commercial real estate and mts fact that rates have been this high for this long. one of the things a little bit of moderation on the fed funds rate will do take a little bit of pressure off the banks, it will take -- make a little easier for small business to borrow, probably won't do much for the real estate industry yet. and the fact of the matter is, credit conditions and financial conditions are pretty robust

right now. >> you said it's not going to be a typical cycle. why not? >> i think the issue is, as long as we continue to stay around full employment, and unemployment has ticked up mainly because of supply increases, not a lack of demand, still good labor demand, we still have an inflation issue. and this is maybe a little bit of the disconnect between wall street and main street. wall street sees that we're moderately heading down in the 2s, main street sees inflation has averaged over the last four years about 4.5% plus and they're struggling to make ends meet. if i'm at the fed i want to make sure we wrestle this inflation bear to the group and willing to do a cut, but i want to be deliberate and also mindful of the fact that you could have a new administration, new policies. we need to assess those policies and slower and more spacing

would be better because there's still a lot of uncertainty. >> any concern aboutthe overall economy? this morning hershey says discretionary spending on chocolate, wayfair starts to see weakness in their customer base. >> concern yes, is the economy weakening yes. however, i think the big area of weakness is the low to moderate income families that make $50,000 a year or less that's correct 60 million plus workers, they are struggling to make ends meet. when they go to mcdonald's they're going to buy the value meal not other things. you're seeing this in other spending. another big group of consumers that are over 55 have a fixed rate mortgage, financial assets have seen their financial assets go up. you're seeing income and wealth inequality growing and i think you're hearing from some of these companies if you deal with low to moderate income consumers they're under pressure. >> we'll see where the jobs

number brings tomorrow. important week as we can all tell. thanks. after the break, "squawk on the street" heads to paris for the latest on the ground at the olympics plus martha stewart's big tech picks. we're back in a moment. it will take billions of solar panels to power the world today. aes is making scale like that closer to a reality. introducing maximo, our new ai-enabled solar robot, designed and built in america. with max on the team,

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." andrew ross sorkin is live at the paris olympics and joining us with more including martha stewart's thoughts on meta and highlights. it's day six of the olympic games and katie ledecky winning gold in the 1500 meter freestyle tied for the most overall medals and most gold medals of any u.s. women in olympic history. a sipgts to behold last evening. i was there in person. the place was electric. meantime, usa men's basketball advancing to the quarterfinals after defeating south sudan and they did it a lot better than they had in the exhibition game where south sudan came within one point. this time 103-86.

maybe they learned their lesson during that game. as you mentioned, david, you know, earlier this morning we talked to martha stewart. she joins us on "squawk box" here in paris and the truth is that we were just wrapping up the interview, we talked about so many other issues including what she's doing with snoop dogg here in paris and her snoop dogg sneakers she was wearing, they're gold, when she noticed one of our meta charts was displayed on the screen here and then she said this about meta and tesla. take a look. >> >> meta. >> that's going to be fun. >> meta rising how fabulous. >> there it is. >> you own the stock. >> yep. >> full disclosure there. >> nice. >> back to you. >> i want to know what else is in the martha stewart portfolio. >> that's a good question. what is? what else? >> i have been an investor in google, apple, the big tech

stocks. tesla i loved tesla. i'm pissed at elon musk. >> you're pissed at elon musk. >> he better get back to work in certain areas. >> hold on. what's your problem? >> i love electric cars. i drive -- i have two electric cars. i'm now getting the rivian truck and i think that if we don't get going on this stuff, you know, and concentrating. >> is the rivian a protest against tesla? >> no, i love the colors and the shape and whole thing. i tried the cybertruck. it's too crazy for me still. >> she was singing the praising of tiktok and said it's not going to get shut down. so there's a call there and we will see what ultimately happens. as i mentioned, martha commentating with her pal snoop dogg here on nbc and peacock. what else you need to know about what's on tap here at the olympic games. the women's gym nathics individual all around the women is coming up today. a little bit later. we got women's team foil finals.

usa taking italy in the gold medal match this afternoon 2:30 p.m. eastern time. team usa women's basketball taking on belgium and we have golf for those folks who are watching scottie scheffler and saw that rory mcillroy at number three. so whole bunch of things going on. and i know you're there, but carl's coming this way. we have to talk about what to wear here. it's very hot. the weather. >> i'm well aware. >> you need linen. >> well aware of the weather. you look good in that suit. i i have to ask we mentioned your conversation with costas and al michaels and what an amazing story that continues to be as we talk about use cases for ai. >> it was an unbelievable discussion as you may know, al michaels has given over his voice to a report, a dlae report. listen to it right now where he

reads you everything that happened at the olympics, but he's not reading it. it's his ai voice. it's been trained on years and years of videotape and really his audio, and it sounds as if he's telling you exactly what happened doing a recap of the olympics and the funny part he said he was given a call and asked do you want to do nothing for some money, and he said, you know, of course. and here he is. but he did admit it's scary. his wife was with us and she was saying, i mean, it sounds like him. the intoe nation, the phrases, everything. and so, carl, i think, you know, i don't know if you're giving to give over your voice, david may, leslie. >> that's quite -- >> we're going to be avatars. >> this is what i'm hoping for and going to sustain me in my retirement which is going to be begin soon. check in with all about this.

>> andrew, stellar coverage all week long. some blockbuster shows this week. andrew ross sorkin. >> get yourself linen for next week. >> still to come this morning, the big tech breakdown as meta surges and we look ahead to planamon tonight. back in three. -reward analysis, help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley with powerful, easy-to-use tools, power e*trade makes complex trading easier. react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity. e*trade from morgan stanley i can't believe you corporate types are still calling each other rock stars. you're a rock star. we're all rock stars. oooo look look at my data driven insights, i'm a rock star. great job putting finance and hr on one platform with workday.

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yep, dave's feeling it. but it's only for a limited time. five years? -five years? introducing the comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. powering 5 years of savings. powering possibilities. >> we are following the prisoner swap under way between the united states and russia. eamon javers has the latest. >> hi, carl. we cannot report names of who might be involved in this prisoner swap, but we know a massive exchange is going on between the united states and russia. there are a lot of moving pieces at this hour. we know, of course, that there have been negotiations going on for some time about evaners go go vich who has been held and probably the most high-profile american held in russia today. as i say we can't say who exactly is on planes where

planes are or any of that. until we get official confirmation. this is potentially a large prisoner swap and u.s. officials are saying that this is now under way according to nbc news. carl. >> thank you. a historic day. appreciate you bringing us the latest. up to the latest out of big tech, meta shares soaring on strong results driven by the company's ai strategy as the street gets ready for new numbers out of amazon and apple in just a few hours. our next guest just raised his price targets on meta and amazon and calls them both a buy yousef, thanks for being here. can you give us the cliff notes on why you decided to raise the price target on these two names? >> sure. thanks for having me. so on meta, it's straightforward. last night's print was impressive. not only did they go to users, but grew monetization and they have prepared on the top line and bottom line and at a time

when the valuation remains attractive, trading in line with the s&p 500, growing much faster on the top line and even better on the bottom line. that's for meta. we think there's zquestions abot the ai. amazon we haven't seen the numbers but clearly we think they're going to out perform on the marketplace and even though they control e-commerce in the u.s., 46, 47% market share we think their going to eek out further growth, 10, 11%. top line growth at a time when their margin profile should improve their ads business are growing twice the rate of the industry and aws, everybody focused going to show slightly incremental acceleration to the 17, 18% year on year all packaged in a still pretty attractive valuation. >> on the meta call you asked

about the broader applications of llama three and zuckerberg answered it's basically a bit of a long road map but they want to add ap ply kagss including commerce. how you handicapping the future of this. >> >> we have more questions on the topic than answers, but that said, i think top large degrees zuckerberg has earned the right to get the benefit of the doubt. he was the architect of moving the company into mobile and short form video and ai. they are spending a lot on ai and we're seeing green chutes from that spend partly in their core search, i'm sorry core advertising business and increasingly on this generative ai. the question i asked was about that. what type of consumer ap ply kagss they can go into.

one of the key applications is search. it's a $300 billion market today. controlled fully effectively by google. just lake what we saw a couple weeks ago with openai, testing, search gpt, we think meta will have in search product that could help me help you look for commercial or do commercial queries on ai and that's huge. >> on all these mega cap names it seems like they're either entering an investment cycle where costs go up and warning ability investments and equity investors freak out a little bit or they're going through periods of retrenchment and restructuring and they're lowering costs. which is it for meta? >> i think for meta and amazon we're going the other way, going into an investment cycle particularly around ai, so for

meta, for instance, one thing we did yesterday is we bumped our capex up by about $5 billion. on the back of zuckerberg's commentary. i suspect we're going to do the same on amazon. i think both of these companies are doing this through a position of strength not weakness because whaile doing that they're giving you improving margins. meta that you the advertising business and amazonp from aws and from the advertising business and international. >> it's a busy week for sure. appreciate you taking the time to join us. hope you're able to rest up before the deluge after the close today. >> thank you so much. >> when we come back, u.s. steel sale to japan's nippon facing opposition across d.c. one of u.s. steel's largest shareholders does see a path to a completed purchase and he will

join us up with his take and talk about the outlookor f deal making this election cycle after a break.

>> welcome back. my next guest runs one of the largest event driven hedge funds on wall street and makes bets on whether deals are going to get done. last time he joined us matt explained by elon musk's purchase of twitter would close on the agreed upon terms, and he was right. he said nippon steel $55 a share all cash purchase of u.s. steel will defy the market's expectations why he is the second largest shareholder of the company. joining me matt from ken water capital. blackrock exceeded you. you were the largest. why do you believe when we can look at the stock price that this thing is going to close and so many others say no way, biden is against it, josh shah pir rock governor of pennsylvania is against it and on and on.

>> listen to what they are saying, david. they're saying that they don't believe the transaction should close until the union starts to support the transaction. if you look at everyone's incentives, everyone at the end of the day should come to the same conclusion that this transaction is better for the union, it's better for the state of pennsylvania, and it's better for the united states economy. for a couple simple reasons. first, if the transaction doesn't close, u.s. steel does not spend the $1.4 billion that nippon has committed to spend upgrades facilities in pennsylvania, as well as in gary, indiana. instead, those facilities don't get the needed capex and employment in those facilities that would result from all of that additional capex spend doesn't happen. that's bad for pennsylvania, that's bad for the union and bad

for the united states of america and so at the end -- >> why don't they understand that? that's straightforward language. >> everyone is doing what they should be doing right now. look at incentives. i try to understand everyone's incentives. right now the union is incentived to want to get the best deal possible that will guarantee employment for generations to come in pennsylvania. that's their incentive. the politicians, their incentive, ones for running for re-election, to get re-elected but to support the american worker and so if there has to be a negotiation between nippon and the union, then the politicians are supporting the union. the union is saying no, until they can get the very best deal possible. it just takes time, david.

it takes time for people to be able to sit down and have a conversation that will result in the union feeling comfortable, the buyer nippon feeling comfortable, pennsylvania feeling comfortable and the united states government feeling comfortable as well. >> when you look at the language and consider the review that will take place on national security grounds seems to be a strong belief, a stock h$41 on $55 deal believes it's going to be stopped on the grounds of national security. >> the $41 on a $55 deal, you didn't ask this, that's the opportunity. who doesn't want to make 35 -- >> that's why i'm having you on. >> right. >> on their money. >> giving our viewers a view as to why you decided it is going to. back to the cfius question, why are you not a believer that will be the function so to speak that ends this deal?

>> cfius, let's -- for the viewers who might not be familiar let me explain it a little bit. it's a committee on foreign investment in the united states of america. it does a national security review wherever there is an anonsed transaction where there is a foreign buyer buying a u.s. company. their job is to do a national security review. there is really no state of the world where there is a national security concern that a japanese com company, one of our best allies in the entire world, is a national security threat in purchasing u.s. steel. that review is conducted by really 14 different agencies in the united states golf. -- government. led by commerce, treasury. listen to janet yellen who commented on this transaction several times a few days ago --

>> when with the pennsylvania governor josh shapiro. >> she has said when the president of the united states has talked about this transaction he has never said this transaction is a national security issue and that she is going to make sure that national security function under cfius they do their job andjob, and their job is going to come to the conclusion, in my opinion, that this is not a national security risk. >> cleveland-cliffs was a bidder that last ultimately has said something very differently to me on air, you probably talked to him as well. his contention is the unions will never go to this deal. they're believer in what he wants to do and ultimately cleveland-cliffs will be in a position in some way to provide value to u.s. shareholders over time. why don't you think that is really what's going on here and his influence is not going to ultimately lead to the rejection of the deal? >> well, i'm going to take issue with the -- a little bit of the premise of your question because

i don't believe he has any influence. >> why not? >> because i don't believe the ceo of cleveland-cliffs is going to tell all of the federal agents involved with cfius what they can and can't do -- >> what about the usw, what about the steel workers? >> i think the usw is going to do what's in their interest. one of the most important things that has changed since you last had the ceo of cleveland-cliffs on tv is that they can no longer purchase u.s. steel. and if you look at their filings in the last, roughly, nine months they bought back almost $800 million of their own stock. that price is materially higher than where it's trading right now and spending over $2.4 million to buy stelco at 930% premium. that will leave them with eight times leverage and they don't have any money to buy u.s. steel. it is an impossibility for them

to buy u.s. steel. they -- i don't want to say they've abandoned the union, but they have gone in a different strategic direction, which makes it an impossibility at this point in time. >> finally, let me just quickly turn to the broader markets in terms of takeovers. you benefitted from antitrust action that you didn't think was going to be successful, amgen/horizon, whether it was activision, even cgen as well. how do you view the potential for a change in administration here. is trump going to be better for your business or a potential harris administration better? >> well, putting aside who is better for the country, because i don't want to comment on that, i think that the current antitrust enforcement under the biden administration has been very zealous. if you look at lina khan and what she's done at the federal trade commission, i believe she's almost tried to do antitrust enforcement from a public policy perspective rather than a legal enforcement

perspective. and that's created great -- tremendous uncertainty. and they have been able to profit from that uncertainty, so that's a good thing for our investors. at same time, she really has had a deterrence effect on seeing m&a transactions. so, if we have a harris administration, i would expect a continuation of what we've seen for the last four years. if we have a trump administration, i would -- lina khan certainly will not be chair of the federal trade commission and i would expect there's a fair amount of pent-up demand in deal-making and we should see that demand, you know, being released and so we'll see a lot of m&a activity in 2025, if we see a trump presidency. >> matt, always appreciate it. we'll be continuing to report on the fate of u.s. steel. appreciate you sharing your thoughts. thank you. >> thank you for having me on, david. >> very welcome. carl, i'll send it over to you. >> david, thanks. david faber.

watching the markets, dow is now down 350. interesting moves going on at the beginning of a new month. data today has been very weak, very dovish. whether that's claims or pmis or other macro prints we've gotten. russell not benefiting from any rate cut hopes now that september odds are 95%. the russell is down 2%. renmac had an interesting post earlier this morning, arguing the fed might be late. they could remedy that pretty quickly but there will be a point soon, they will argue, where bad economic news is bad news. >> which is notable considering they're still 100% odds of a september cut. 85.5% chance they go 25 basis points and 25% they go 50. the 50, obviously, would suggest the market's view that they are too late in not cutting in july. notable today, you now see a three handle at the front of the ten-year yield.

currently around 3.98. certainly an interesting day in the markets. you can see the dow currently down more than 350 points. bill ackman's pershing square for a closed end fund, withdrawal comes a day after the fund said they would seek to raise $2 billion, far below the possible $25 billion that had been cited in previous reports. in a statement yesterday ackman saying there was, quote, enormous investor interest but the question that remained is whether investors would be better served waiting to invest in the aftermarket than the ipo. he said the question led pershing to re-evaluate the fund's structure. that structure, as we've been talked about, is a closed end fund. it's right there in the pros prospectus, by the way. if you look at page 40, they say, in plain sight, shares of a closed-end investment company frequently trade at a discount from net asset value which creates a loss for net

purchasing shares. when you pitch the deal to savvy investors, they tend to read the prospectus, many of them. >> or they have familiarity with closed-end funds. we have discussed as being the major risk. why invest in an ipo when conceivably in the after-market you can buy it at a discount to net asset value. he somehow believed for him to be different, until he no longer believed it would be different. >> and size as well, because if you are trying to tell the market you want to achieve a premium, you have to be able to say, we have all of this clamoring demand to get in, but the market, you know, hearing that $25 billion anchor number, they said, how are you going to generate multiples of that in terms of oversubscription and get a premium in the after-market trading? there's also a case to be made, too, the fact that -- i mean, this fund, according to the prospectus, was going to invest in a handful of large fund cap equity bets with the occasional

macro hedge that has paid off well for him in his private fund, but if you're an investor, you could just say, well, i'll buy that handful of stocks you don't trade that often. >> from $25 billion to $2.5 billion to $2 billion to no billion. >> although he says he's going to come out with a different design and a more attractive structure. so, something to watch. >> all right. speaking of watching, by the way, tune in here tomorrow for the latest on apple and amazon, reporting results after the bell today. as for us, our live market geonnu rhtft g aer this. old school hard work meets bold new thinking. to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real. (intercom) t minus 10... (janet) so much space! that open kitchen!entlessly work with you (tanya) ...definitely the one! (ethan) but how can you sell your house when we're stuck on a space station for months???!!! (brian) opendoor gives you the flexibility to sell and buy on your timeline.

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aphibarnrat. manassero. smid. pea era. pereira. cheng sung. cheng sunk. good thursday morning. welcome to "money movers." i'm carl quintanilla with leslie picker at the new york stock exchange. today metapowers tech higher. can apple and amazon do their part tonight in helping the ndx break this three-week losing streak. >> a rare interview with the ceo of oil giant shell on earnings and rising tensions in the middle east. >> we'll go to paris and look at intel's performance lab and see somehow they're using a.i. to help