plains and midwest region seeing the biggest boost. the far west and east seeing the largest job losses. >> i think there's an expectation you're going to see a deceleration in jobs. is bad news becoming bad news for the market? that's what played out here, but counter that against apple returning to top line growth. >> yeah. >> all right, that does it for us here at "overtime." "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city times square, on a day when the dow fell nearly 750 points at its lows and the nasdaq shed as much as 3.1%, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. an earnings palooza from apple and amazon to intel, snap, and more. we have major action tonight. we'll bring you all the details from the calls. plus, a rate rout. yields on the ten-year treasury hitting their lowest level since early february and giving markets a serious case of whiplash. what's next for investors? and love for lilli.

finding another potential use for zepbound weight loss drug, helping it to snap an illusive gain in today's session. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- karen finer mann, dan nathan, guy adami and carter worth. we've got team coverage on the results. snap's massive drop. pippa stevens is covering intel. kate rooney is digging into amazon's quarter. but we start off with steve kovach who has the details on apple's beat on the top and bottom line. steve? >> hey there, mel. and not just a beat on the top and bottom lines. they return again to top line sales growth. that is one of the big headlines on this report. let's go over the results here, though. eps was a beat. $1.40, street was looking for $1.35. revenue, a beat at $85.78 billion, and that is up 5% year on year, about where apple had

guided to last quarter. and iphone revenue, a beat here again. that is $39.3 billion, and services revenue, $24.21 billion. slightly beating expectations, but up 14%, continuing that double digit growth in that segment that we've seen over the past few quarters. and then i also got a chance to catch up with ceo tim cook about these results, and, of course, i focused largely on artificial intelligence, and where it plays into the iphone upgrade cycle. and, of course, capital expend s expenditure is the big theme this quarter. let's talk about what he told me on a.i. spending and capex. first on a.i. spending, telling me, quote, what we've done is we've redeployed a lot of people onto a.i. that were working on other things. so, basically, shifting some talent around. you might remember earlier this year, apple canceled its car project and moved a lot of that talent over to artificial intelligence, among other things. and then on capital

expenditures, cook saying, this is an increase year on year on the amount we're spending for a.i. and apple intelligence, and also kind of playing into this a.i. narrative is what the rollout looks like. so, apple intelligence is launching this fall, but it's only going to be in u.s. english at first. apple has already said it's not going to launch in the european union any time soon because of regulatory concerns. but more important market is china, and china has even stricter regulations around art official intelligence. cook said, we're working on exactly what we will do there, and there are definitely regulatory questions there that we have to respond to and we're working constructively on those. and then i also just talked to him in general about iphone demand and whether this artificial intelligence is going to drive it, and he basically told me a little too early to tell, people usually don't show demand for a new thing until it actually launches. so, even though it's been announced, it's going to be a couple more months before it makes its debut and we can get a

read on how well it's driving iphone demand, mel. >> sounds a little cautious there in terms of the driver for an upgrade cycle, steve. more cautious and more sober than perhaps a lot of wall street analysts. >> potentially, yeah. if you asked most of wall street, they think it's going to be a huge upgrade cycle. right now, they are not willing to say anything. the call did just kick off and they usually give a hit at forward-looking guidance, so, maybe there's some new commentary coming here in the next few minutes that can add some more color to that, melissa. >> all right, steve, thank you. keep us posted. steve kovach. it was a fine quarter, right? guy? i mean -- >> fine quarter. couple themes. last night, we talked about, if you recall, facebook, how well they did in europe. and we had a conversation. and now you look at apple -- a lot of things stand out. but europe was up 8.3% year over year. i get it, not that big a deal, but something to watch in terms if europe is turning. china, not good, down 6.5%. here's the rub with me.

services are now 28% of overall revenue. that's the highest i've seen. it's probably the highest they've been at. i'd much rather be 28% instead of 5% revenue growth year over year, maybe 10%. but maybe that's splitting hairs. that's a good thing. that's why they are deserving a premium valuation. however, this much of a premium valuation in this environment, i don't know. >> karen? >> i think it's -- it was fine. a lot to like about it. but the whole story now rests on nothing that happened this quarter, really, right? >> right. >> so, we really have to see. and i don't think -- next quarter, we're not going to have much. we have a few weeks, maybe, of phone sales there, so, we may not have a sense then, we'll get a little bit of a sense, but -- so, i think this was very good quarter, perfectly fine, it doesn't really change the story much right here. not surprised where it's trading. good enough. >> yeah, the narrative, though, you know, from wwdc, which was on june 10th, the stock had, i think, a two-day rally of more than, you know, 12% or something like that. i mean, the street got behind

the fact that there's hundreds of millions of iphones that are going to get upgraded because people want access to this technology. it's only going to work on the 15 pro, and the 16 pro that is going to be released. >> and new ipads. >> probably doesn't start shipping, let's say, late october, maybe early november, there's a bloomberg story saying that all of it is not going to be rolled out. if some of the stuff that's meant to be on device doesn't go on the device, you're talking about -- we're not going to get guidance on this probably until late january or so, right? and then you think of china. china is very consistent with what we heard from consumers throughout this earnings period, you know, down 6% year over year, it's about 17.5% of their revenues, and i think what steve mentioned about tim cook's comments about china, we've been talking about this for a couple weeks, this will not make it by the firewall in china, right? >> oh, no. >> going to have to do a deal with a local, maybe it's baidu. to me, i don't find it

particularly interesting, given the underperformance over the last few years, than the quick catchup trade based on some fundamental stuff that i just don't think it's going to happen until early next year. >> so, basically, no a.i. cat lists, at least, that we know of, until next year. >> we've been spending a lot of time over the last kind of, you know, week or so, digesting a lot of this generative a.i. spend. predominantly for the enterprise, right? and that's what we're focused on with microsoft. this is going to be the first real test of consumer. yeah, we know that openai put their chat bot out there, stuff like that, but this is going to be the big one, because there's hundreds of billions of dollars that have made a bet over the last month or so that this is going to be a consumer success. >> i think that's an interesting point to make, to think about the a.i. catalyst not lining up until 2025. for apple. we might not know -- >> yes. >> anything about that upgrade cycle or anything about that a.i. rollout until 2025 when they report. >> although this is sort of

typical, apple, right? they are not in the business of being first. they are in the business of being the best, and if that happens to be six months from now, so be it. >> conference call under way right now. we'll keep you posted there. want to get to amazon next. shares are down by 5% right now after the tech giant gave disappointing guidance for the current quarter. the conference call kicking off in 20 minutes. cnbc's kate rooney has all the details. >> mel, it was the weaker than expected guidance that's really weighing on the shares. amazon's revenue outcome call up short. aws, 19% growth. that was better than expected it was a key metric. investors were real life watching that. the cfo just had a media call addressing the big tech theme of the week, capex. he says for the first half of the year, it was $30.5 billion, looking ahead to the rest of 2024, they expect capital investments to be, quote, higher in the second half of the year. the majority of that spend is going to be to support the growth needed for aws infrastructure and a.i. he says, we continue to see

strong demand in generative a.i., says they have strong conviction on that capex number and says that it's a positive indicator when we step up our capex. in this area, he says, it signifies demand. you have operating margins, 9.9%, that was a beat. operating income doubled in north america, expanding to 5.6%. advertising, another thing to watch. that disappointed. growth slowed to about 20%. the cfo pointed to prime ad sales. they are going to see an increase over time. said he was confident about the ad business despite that slowdown. back to you. >> kate, thank you. again, the conference call in 20 minutes time gets under way. karen, what did you make of this quarter? >> i actually thought it was a little better than where it was trading. i think amazon has not done a good job, i don't think they try particularly harold to give great guidance. enormous organization, how are you going to go what's going to happen over the next 90 days. i sort of dismiss that. i think the beat in aws was the single most important thing. that was about a $300 million

beat. the advertising was about $200 million light. that seems to be weighing more. i don't really get exactly why, since so much of the story is about aws. so, i thought it was not bad. >> yeah, i'll just say this, and again, this goes back to the point i made about consumer demand for this sort of stuff. when you think about aws, it was a really good quarter. it bottomed out at 12%, 13% growth. this was a couple quarters ago. but this is a company that's not going to get the benefits the way meta has about the spend, how they're deploying this across their ad serving and that sort of thing. you can also make the case that microsoft is in a very similar, you know, situation with co-pilot and the like, so, at some point, amazon is probably going to overbuild with aws, they're going to probably overbuild by buying too many high end chips and the like and probably going to have greater capacity once we see a slowdown in some sort of demand. you know, microsoft on that quarter earlier in the week, they talked about being capacity constrained right there, so,

again, you know, the jury is still out on this one, but aws is super important, but it was good. the ad part, i think, is the faster growing business, and it's also a very high margin for them. >> much smaller business. >> right. high growth. >> yeah. >> but why couldn't they deploy sort of the same mentality that meta does in terms of employing a.i. to improve their ad offerings and their ad platforms? i don't really -- they are an a.i. company. >> well, they're not talking about it. if you think -- if it was going well -- >> ads are down 20%. they're in some -- behind the game here. >> the one thing that was really good about meta was, you really got a sense of, okay, wow, they're really turning this into revenue. that was much more clear here, calls are so important. there's so much nuance to have. >> mar gin'gins great. the guide is scaring people. we have a crack staff in ec, you foe this. you go there from time to time.

>> i do. >> they should put up a chart of the amazon. >> there it is. >> go back to april, go a little farther back, and you will see that this 174ish level is where we stopped back in april. so, the same -- remember the conversation we had -- thursday? tuesday about microsoft about, you're looking for levels to buy it, not sell it. remember that whole thing. same thing. same thing. >> let's go to carter. carter, we got to check in with you on how these charts look to you. apple and amazon. >> sure, since we're on amazon, let's do it. the level toll sig sight here i important. we're approaching that low right now. so, that level is 176. stock is around 174, 175. that's just slightly below the 150-day moving average. holding that is very important. hunch is it does. and this is not that big a reaction. big reactions, we know, are violent up or down. this seems fairly muted. apple is down a little bit. also fairly muted.

my thinking is there's not a lot of downside on a day-to-day basis, in either of these. in fact, it's all a question if these are intermediate tops that turn out to be major tops. can't be determined, but that is the risk. let's get back to the big story the day. markets bouncing off their worst levels late in the day, but the dow sliding 500 points. it had been down 750 points at its low. the s&p dropping more than a percent. the tech-heavy nasdaq more than 2% and seeing the biggest losses down just over 3%. benchmark ten-year treasury broke below the key 4% level, first time since february. a slew of weak economic numbers today. weekly jobless claims jumping today ahead of tomorrow's jobs report. highest level since august of last year. and the ism manufacturing index fell to its lowest level since november. did this spark new fears of a potential recession? we're coming off the fed meeting where they did seem to tip their hand in terms of the risks to

the employment picture, not just the inflation picture. >> as they should. and i'm not -- i say it all the time, i'm not humorless enough nor smart enough to be an economist, i'll throw that out there, but with that said, we had an interesting conversation last night about lower rates and what it would mean and carter talks about this a lot. be careful what you wish for. at a certain point, rates going lower will not be good for the market. for the first time in a long time, the bad news that we got and don't pretend, it was bad news on the economic front, was actually bad news for the market. the bond market is saying it. rates are not going lower because this warranted inflation, it's going lower because the economy is slowing down. and i think the market, at least today, it's a snapshot of what you could see. >> how did you read that move below 4%? >> yeah, i asked a question to guy last night, and i think he was spot on. we didn't get the 25 basis points yesterday, but we got as much certainty as we're going to get from powell, right? he always wants to leave an exit door if he needs to use it. sol -- i thought the data was

somewhat mixed to negative. some of it is noisy and some of the revisions make the moves a little less bad, but it's slowing, it's definitely slowing. so, i think that we still had very good growth, but concerns about the consumer are real, and so, i think it's -- it's not surprising the market was down. >> yeah, i'd be surprised when we get to jackson hole in a few weeks here if fed chair powell speaks to a slowing economy. that's probably not the narrative they want. they want to kind of get in the mode where they've done what they needed to do with inflation, right, without too many hiccups along the way. and if you think about it, i mean, for all intents and purposes, it has, you know, gdp surprised to the upside last quarter, you talk about the r-word, recession, i mean, you need a material slowdown quarter over quarter to get that. as it relates to the stock market, it's interesting, last year, it topped out on july 18th, and it went down about 10.5% to the october low. since then, we've rallied about 38% to the recent highs.

you know what those highs were? july 16th. you think about the narrative in and around earnings for this q-2 period and the guidance that we've seen, i would say year over year, it's much worse, from the stuff that we've heard about the consumer, you just talked about that pmi that's moved into contraction. so, i think of the stock market down 4.5% from those recent highs, i see the reaction, the volatility that we're getting -- think about nvidia three days ago, down 7.5%, up 12%, today it was down 8.5% at one point. guy and i were talking about this earlier -- and carter made this point to us earlier, that's not the sort of price action you would expect down 4.5% of something that's about to bottom. it would almost say to me, and carter's made this -- i don't know if we're going to go back to him. i'm using his -- >> he's still here. >> he's still in the room? >> he's a trader. >> he said -- carter, i'm going to hand it off to you. when we go down 5%, usually it does something more. and i'm going to say, go get 'em, buddy. >> okay. ready? so, there's an adage that i committed to memory, sharp

indecision is resolved sharpedly. what we're seeing is this violent up 2%, down 2% . if you are in a protracted bear market, you're just declining. it's the moments of transition that volatility really picks up. so,typically, at a major market bottom, there's a debate. is this real? or is it still -- who is next? or is it not real? and the market tops. so, volatility is extreme at market turning points. now, that would argue that per happens this is a turning point. or, said differently, it happens at market bottoms or market tops. if this is a market bottom, that would be weird. >> carter, two questions. not in this -- what are you in front of? and the other question is, if you were t look at a chart of volatility, where would you

say volatility is going? >> sure. i'm in front of a painting from a high school classmate. but i can onto speak to it, it's mean revert, and it always gives ground. as measured by the vix, low. historically, yes. are the implications that volatility is going to increase and the vix will go higher, yes. >> okay, so, i want to back up to your -- your statement that this would be weird if this were a market bottom, and that implies you see more downside ahead, is that correct? >> sure. let's talk about that. right, when you're transitions, thinking about -- we're in the throes of a relationship that's ending, or that's starting, whether it's a job or with a person, there's great volatility, unknowns, i'm in, i'm out, it's working, it's not working. so, think about that concept. there's sharp indecision. a lot of people are saying, no, no, a.i. is good.

it's early stages, this is going to go on forever. other people are saying, they said that about dot com, this is crazy. industrial commodities are collapsing. interest rates are free falling. the notion of a soft landing seems a little misguided. my hunch is, right, that you can call this volatility symptomatic of a transition, and, again, great volatility happens at important lows or highs. we've been essentially going up year after year after year since '09. with the exception of a few blips, like the covid blip. >> right. you mentioned the industrial metals, and of course, gold, on the flip side. new high today. guy, i know you noticed that. >> yes. and that is going to continue. and i think carter agrees with that, as well. and quickly, karen is a bit of an art aficionado. you can correct me, that looks like a francisco goya painting, if you would look at some of his works. for example, "saturn devouring

his son." very reminiscent. have you been watching the olympics? >> i have. >> katie ledecky. >> unbelievable. >> she's in paris, but we have our own katie, kaletie stocktona month and a half ago said, remember -- she said, volatility is going to start to move to the upside in a meanful way. that proved prescient. >> what about our big short guys who were on last week? they said, make volatility great again. they said, maybe they can pull up a few-year chart of the s&p 500 very quickly, i don't know if they can do a 200-day moving average. i'm going to steal this from carter. last summer, the high in early 2022, the breakout late last year, early this year, obviously, above those sorts of levels. the rise 2ing moving average, i you got down to that 200-day moving average, that gets you about 11%. that was the drawdown we saw

from late july into early october. and that makes perfect sense, if we do have a slight sentiment shift here. here's the other thing. earnings estimates are still expected to be up 11% this year, and up nearly 14.5% next year. that seems very high, when you see the sort of data that we're getting right now, and if unemployment goes the direction that guy is suggesting, i mean, i think those numbers are probably too high. which makes the s&p at about 20 1/2 times, 21 times, probably too expensive. >> these afterhours moves are worth tracking, as well. apple is now down by about 2% on its earnings report. amazon still down 5%. and take a look at intel. this is one we want to get to. it is down 18.5% after a top and bottom line miss. the chip giant also suspending its dividend. suspending its dividend to preserve capital. that's never a good sign. pippa stevens has the details. >> that's part of a cost-saving measure with intel outlining a $10 billion cost reduction plan

which includes a 15% reduction in work force. majority of which will be completed by the end of this year. now, the q-2 miss driven not by pcs, but the data center and a.i. unit, with q-3 guidance also missing estimates. the call kicking off just now, as the ceo calling the q-2 profitability disappointing right off the bat. he said the tradeoff to drive the a.i. pc category, despite the pressure on margins was worth it. he called the ongoing job cuts necessary decisions, and said that even with lower overall spending, the company will continue to fund the investments needed to drive its strategy. now, the company guided q-3 adjusted gross margin up 38%, compared to the 35.9% that analysts were looking for. that stock down nearly 19% here afterhours. melissa? >> pippa, thank you. pippa stevens. >> if it opens here, it's an 11-year low on the stock. just when you think it can't get any worse, it gets worse.

t semiconductors, i thought, the new oil, right? the one sector everybody should be in. intel -- >> right. and this is the national semiconductor. >> national semiconductor. >> it is our native semiconductor manufacturer, getting money from the united states government. >> getting money. you would think they'd be hiring people in this environment. so, none of this is any good. and look, i'm one of the people that said a couple times, like, you might want to try intel on the long side here for the reasons you just cited. wrong. i mean, they can't get out of their own way. >> by the way, texas instruments in 2011 bought national semiconductor, remember we used to have nsm, that ticker. >> that's right. >> i kind of casually said the same thing a week and a half ago. 30 seemed to be a level. someone was sitting there with deep pockets just buying it, if you pull up that chart. i'm just kind of shocked at the magnitude of this disappointment, and, you know, to have a ceo come out and say that after they've had disappointment after disappointment, mel, i mean, i'm going to steal this from somebody really smart on the

desk. how much longer does this guy h have? when he came in, it was supposed to be a turnaround story. it's been a disaster, so -- again, you know, saying so bad it's good is not -- >> this is so bad, it's bad. came in in 2021, the stock is about half of where it was when he started his tenure as ceo. he has given guidance, which he has missed many times in terms of the longer term forecast here, karen. any hope in your view here? >> ah -- i don't know. i -- thankfully don't own it, but i think -- i don't know if there's any read-through to anything else from these numbers. >> or if it's intel-specific. >> because there seems to have been a lot of good things happening in the space while they've been unable to do it. i think the magnitude of the turnaround is so big, and this -- the national -- the national semiconductor company-ness of it, disconcerting, a little bit.

>> this is what we're relying on. >> right. since we're really hoping that taiwan is safe, and then we got intel. >> right. >> so, i think -- that's a little disconcerting. i would like to sigh taiwan semi increase the pace of their u.s. production. this is obviously something that takes a long time, and is complicated to do. i don't know. good for them for cutting the dividend. that's a waste of their money right now. they shouldn't be concerned about whether they should be a dividend payer or not. but i don't know. i'm staying away. >> carter, your take on an 18.5% drop in intel shares? >> yes, it is in fact something. i think this is a testament to relative strength, obviously. a strong area of the market, semiconductors, intel, a nonparticipant. and you always have to wonder why. i'm not into why, i'm in the what business, and the what business is, it's not performing. the trend line, and bang, today, the break. not good. get out, even here. >> all right. coming up, more earnings action. snap, coinbase, block, and more. all on the move after their results, the numbers out of the

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welcome back to "fast money." more earnings action to bring you. shares of roku and coinbase higher. block jumping after raising its full-year outlook. draftkings lower on a revenue miss. the company announcing a $1 billion share repurchase program. and booking holdings reporting a beat on the top and bottom lines. and let's get a check on shares of apple, as well as amazon. apple down 2% right now. amazon down by a little bit more than 5%. deep water asset management gene munster has been all over these calls. he's that talented, two calls at once. gene, what -- let's first start off with apple, because the traders here are making the point that we're not going to get much clarity in terms of the power of the upgrade cycle until possibly next year. so, what do we do with the results at this point? >> well, you have to kind of

look at the guidance here and just want to emphasize that even though that's the reality, is that we're not going to know until next year how this a.i. plays into the power of the next cycle, the next two years, is investors are -- are hyper focused, an understatement, on anything they can glean in terms of what that looks like. so, when apple just gided for revenue to be up half a percent in september versus where the street's at, and earnings in line, some investors read that as a slight disappointment. and the reason is that they'll get that kind of captures two weeks of the new iphone revenue and those two weeks, doesn't sound like a lot of time, but probably 40% of the iphone sales come in there. so, effectively, i think steve's setup was right on when he said that tim cook doesn't really know what this is going to look like, the next cycle, until they actually see what happens with orders. and i think investors wanted to

see a little bit more. you're right, melissa. v investors are going to have to wait. that's not going to change their anticipation, to glean any sort of insight into how this cycle is gaining traction. >> gene, services revenue with a bright spot, and one of the reasons why you can wrap your head around valuation, 28%, which is, correct me, i think that's the high i've seen. so, thoughts on that? >> services has been the big surprise. we've seen an acceleration, it was call it 10%, 11%, now we're up to 14%. they guided for services revenue to be a similar type of growth rate, as we've seen over the last three quarters. so, it's probably going to be about 13% in the september quarter. and that's -- that's, like, impressively resilient, given all the things that have happened around developers and take rates, and what's going on in europe and some of those changes. so, i think what it points to, guy, is just the resiliency of that business, and i think that investors can sleep well knowing that, you know, this concern

that the services business is somehow going to move in a bad direction, we're just simply not seeing that. it seems to be in a great place. and as part of that, too, just quickly, they did reiterate that their active base hit a record level again. they didn't give the specific number, but that plays into the services and the fly wheels just working. >> gene, in terms of amazon, is the guidance that was dis disappointing for you? what was disappointing? and how come we are seeing such a difference between when amazon's reporting in terms of what they're seeing in their ad business and what we've seen from meta or even an alphabet, and why can't amazon, or is amazon employing a.i. tools to improve that stream of high growth business for them? >> well, they -- they are using a.i., i think it's a lot related to recommendations, of course, and they're doing some around logistics. to answer your question, what's the disconnect of what's

happened with meta and what's happened with amazon, i think amazon is a better just breadth of the broader economy. i think that they tend to be kind of skew in line and maybe slightly lower to, in terms of the average income of a customer, and so, i think you're just seeing a better breds of what's going on, i think a general, a little bit of a slowdown and the ad market has impacted that advertising business. as far as kind of the bigger picture around amazon, what's on my mind, obviously, aws, everyone is focused on that, but i'm thinking about it in terms of, where do they really fit in terms of control of a.i., and in their case, they're really partnering for this, and doing things with their investment in anthropic. but there's still some big unanswered questions when it comes to amazon and how they're going to fully take advantage of a.i. i think it's a very different conversation than what google and meta talked about, for example. >> all right, gene, thank you. keep us posted on that conference call. >> will do.

>> just getting under way right now. dan, did you have a question for carter? >> yeah. this is one that has been range bound until they announced that buy-back, until we got to wwdc. i'm just curious, do you think there's a level -- because a lot of folks would like to buy this into the late fall and new year, that sort of thing -- >> apple? >> thinking about those levels in apple. >> yeah, okay, i was going to say, which one are we talking about here? yeah, so, apple -- and i think, here's the thing, apple, one, has been the one that lags so much, right? it peaked relative to its sector almost two years ago. two, we can put up any chart of apple, what we know is that apple went up from its april low, mid-april to mid-july, 45%. the qs went up 22, s&p went up 14. so, you have the circumstances, some of it was lagging, and then this lurching, let me catch up breakout. and that kind of relative performance, you're seeing it here there's not much reaction

post-print in apple. 2% move is nothing. my hunch is that it's a pair of twos here. as to what level to buy it, i think is your question, sorry to be long winded. this is the case with any stock, that breaks out of well-defined top at a common level, returns to that level, that would be 200, in the case of apple that is the back of the truck point at which one would add or niche yaif. coming up, eli lilly going straight to the heart. the pharma company's blockbuster weight loss drug showing strong signs against yet another health condition. the new results that sent shares higher. jared holz is joining us next to lay out what it could mean for lilly and the entire space. that interview when "fast money" returns.

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board. the ten-year falling below 4%, hitting its lowest level also since february. despite the rough start to august on wall street, health care stocks were in good shape today. the s&p sector etf closing a percent higher. eli lilly leading the group, up 3.5% after a study showed its weight loss drug zepbound can slash heart failure risks, including hospitalization and death by 38%. this comes as the ceo says the drug could officially come out of shortage as early as today or tomorrow. but are lilly and its peers immune to macro fears rattling the market? let's bring in jared holz. great to have you with us. let's first talk about this study, it was phase three. in heart failure, specifically. how does this differ from novo's select data, which was also in heart conditions, prevented things like heart attacks? >> right, it's slightly different. i mean, they were looking for an indication that is not exactly what novo had in terms of cardiovascular risk and stroke.

this is particularly a heart failure indication. it's similar in context in that it improves or expands the market. we already know how powerful the drug is. now we're looking for increased reimbursement, increased access to patients that have these underlying conditions, where it's much easier to write the script for, so, big positive. >> basically, it expands the total addressable market, because you can write a prescription for a broader range of heart conditions. >> exactly. i think that's what we saw with the select data, that's why it was so profound. you've seen a lot of patients, at least via is surveys that are done, and other methodologies that the companies use, a lot of the people that are on these drugs are not using them for obesity. they're actually using them for cardio metabolic improvement, stroke reduction, et cetera, so, i think this is another step in the right direction. >> so, now that we're seeing more supply being able to come on the market, and more demand, do you think, though, that pricing will move down at all? >> it's got to move down in time. that's been the big risk for

this trade and my view, the entire time, is that we've got to a point where these drugs are massive, you got insurance companies that are going to push back at some point. once the access has kind of reached an equilibrium, it sounds like it's going to, i would expect it to come down. we also have the i.r.a. that's going to hit these drugs in three years, plus competition. you have all these factors. that's what i think is really putting the pressure on these stocks as much as the overall market. >> so, jared, we've been talking about a weakened consumer. what percentage of the scripts are covered by insurance? and i'm just curious if we get in a more difficult, you know, environment, economically, is it going to be downward pressure on demand for these drugs? >> that's a great question. we don't know for sure. some of the work we've done suggests 50/50. 50% of patients are going to a doctor, getting the prescription for, you know, a certain reason. 50% are paying out of pocket, so, agree, i think if there is

stress on the consumer, which it seems like there is vis avis all the other earnings groups. the one thing i would consider, it's not that expensive if you really consider it for a three-month period, a six-month period. you're not talking about that much out of pocket. if patients are not using it for more than a couple years. >> jared, tuesday merck reports. quarter was fine. full-year guidance scared people. the stock acted in kind. it's a name you loved correctly in the fall last year. i think it's a little overdone here. i think the keytruda numbers were fine. karen mentioned gardasil. thoughts on merck? >> i think it's a buy here. i don't think anyone was really pushing it anyway. that was not the thesis around the street. so, i think you got a pretty good opportunity. key keytruda crushing it. we have time until that io franchise declines anyway, so, i like it here. gardasil, a big deal, but

shouldn't have it down this much. >> they said they want to acquire an obesity drug, so, immediately, who do you think of? >> i kind of think of corbis, i kind of think of viking a little bit. it's really tough to say what is not -- what is kind of, like, second generation, third generation, or differentiated. we don't really know what any of those things mean. i think within the confines of the publicly traded names, corbis, viking, maybe wave makes sense, but it's hard to know. >> jared, great to see you. thank you. jared holz. coming up, the earnings keep rolling in. snap shares dropping. the numbers that have the social stock sinking, next. if you are looking for some shelter from the storm today, the chart master has a couple of picks to help riyou de out the turmoil. don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two.

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welcome back to "fast money." snap plunging afterhours, following a revenue miss and disappointing guidance. the earnings call under way right now. cnbc's julia boorstin has the very latest. >> that's right. snap shares down 18.5%, despite the fact that snap beat on the top and bottom line. but the shares are plummeting in afterhours trading on the

company's third quarter earnings outlook. the company guiding to $70 million to $100 million in revenue. that's lower than the $110 million street estimates. in terms of the ad market, the company saying that brand ad revenue declined 1% year over year, driven by particularly, quote, weak demand from certain consumer discretionary verticals including retail, technology, and entertainment. now, those are different categories than pinterest flagged for weakness. but snap's direct response business is worth noting grew 16% in the quarter. the company saying momentum with its direct response in small and medium-sized business advertisers resulted in snap's total number of active advertisers, more than doubling over the past year. shares now down about 18%, melissa. >> julia, thank you. julia boorstin. dan, you traded snap in the past, you said this is a trading stock. i mean, look at it. >> just look at the gaps. this thing is trading, it closed at $12.81, it's trading, you

know, $10.50. and you look at that, is that back down at support? i know not fundamental by any means, but that's kind of the level. what's your rule, karen, how many days? >> three. >> but today's day one, aftermarket is day one. >> so, it's really two now. >> two trading days. >> if you are going to buy it at $10.50, use a ten stop. it would be a disaster below that. >> they're? the same business as meta -- >> apparently not. i mean -- i don't know what to make of it. i've always thought, if you want to be in that business, buy meta, not snap, not pinterest. much more expensive. >> we talked about this last night. the conversation was -- >> which was that -- >> facebook wins at first, until they don't. we -- and it's happening right before our very eyes. and just to show how tough this is, and this is -- listen, we're not picking on anybody here, but a week ago, morgan stanley

upgraded the stock, which i admired, by the way. they put a $16 price target on it. so, we'll see if they reiterate or what they say, but again, it just goes to show you, this is not easy there, folks. >> all right, coming up, looking for a safe haven after today's big selloff. the chart master has some ideas for where you can find some ats xtr from the storm. th ine. more "fast money" in two. >> no application fee if you apply by august 29th at university of maryland global campus, an accredited university that's transformed adult lives for 75 years. you're not waiting to win, you're ready to succeed again at umgc.edu. [music “this little light of mine”] in the world's poorest places, children with cleft conditions live in darkness and shame. you're not waiting to win, you're ready they're shunned, outcast, living in pain.

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we're getting an update from amazon's conference call. kate rooney has been listening in. >> the theme of the conference call has been a.i. and this capex spending. andy jassy, the ceo, just wrapped up opening comments. he said to investors on the call, he said, we're investing a lot across the board in a.i., he says, we'll keep doing so, and they like what they're seeing in terms of a.i. what they see ahead of them. they're seeing demand. he talked about aws, customers wanting choice. he said there's not one model to rule them all, talked about their strategy of sort of offering variety of different models. said it's not a multiple billion dollar revenue run rate, despite being such early days. he says you can see it in the results, you saw aws growth up 19%, talked about customer conversations, and some of the

offerings within a.i. very bullish. he said, quote, we remain very bullish on the medium to long-term impact of a.i. in every business we know. so, really, that was the theme of his commentary. talked about the core e-commerce business. said the consumer is being cautious. the consumer is being careful on price. he said the north american unit growth is growing meaningfully and it is outpacing sales growth. did talk about being able to lower costs to serve, and sort of offset that, but did say that the consumer is being cautious, which could be weighing on shares, as that would hit their core business, but the call still going on, mel. >> kate, thank you. kate rooney. with major indices all down significantly today, we wanted to ask the chart master, where can we seek safety? carter has some safe haven ideas for investors. so, is it value? is that the right way to play right now, carter? >> well, of course, if you look at just the 11 sectors in the market today before we get to the charts, it was truly stacked and perfect inverse order, risk

on, risk off. so, in the green, utilities, defensive. reits, defensive. consumer staples, defensive. and then health care. and so, there are areas marked by type of business line that are less cyclical and typically is a playbook that is reliable. let's look at a couple of charts. the first here is a two-security basket. 50% reits and 50% utilities. so, xlu and iyr. what you see, of course, is a well-defined bottoming out, or a bearish to bull ish reversal. it's not doing well absolute. the next chart is a two-panel. it features that same equal weight basket on the top, this is actually a yields chart. but either way, there is a two-panel basket, and if you look at that relative to the s&p, that two security basket, reits and utilities, not only is going up, but it's doing very well of late, relative to the

market, largely because the market is selling off. but then, i also have a chart of berkshire hathaway. and so, berkshire does well in major market swoons, historically, and that is the case right now day-to-day. berkshire broke out, and is now checked back to the level from which it broke out, i would put some money to work there. and finally, we have the ultimate safe haven, gold. gold, if you look at every instance, we'll spend a little bit of time on this, 20, 30 seconds, anyway, the columns speak for themselves. these are instances where the market dropped more than 20%, 2007, 2009 selloff, right? the covid selloff and then the bear market of 2022/-23. and lthere have been 15 instancs where the s&p has dropped more than 15%, more than 20 from an all-time high, and gold has outperformed the market every single time, except the 1980s.

>> wow. carter, thank you for that. up next, final trades.

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experience game-changing innovation with t-mobile for business. last check on some of the big afterhours movers. apple is now in positive territory, just paibarely. amazon is down 6%, and intel down 20% right now. time for the final trade. carter? >> abbv. >> karen? >> if a baby were a painter, she might have painted what is behind carter right now. merck. >> dan? >> yeah, lilly's got a gap all the way down there near 720ish

or something like that. there's a good chance you see that down there. it's probably a great buy on the way down. >> guy? >> it was a fun show. >> active, you know -- >> by the way, i want to say this, tremendous job today on the "squawk box." >> thank you. >> yeah. >> draftkings on this weakness, melms. >> thank you for "fast." "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. >> my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you a little money. my job is not just to entertain but to explain and teach you about days like today. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. tweet me @jimcramer. the action that ten-year treasury speaks louder than words and that's my takeaway from a day where tra