has sold a lot of stock. in fact, selling nearly half his stake in apple. a head's up would have been nice. thanks for that. it's monday, august 5th, 2024. "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm andrew ross sorkin back from paris along with joe kernen. becky is off today. >> welcome back. >> thank you. welcome back to this. we have a lot given the nice feelings people had in paris. i'm not sure they were thinking so much about -- >> the ratings are amazing. >> amazing of the olympics. the fallout from the friday job

report. the big questions on the fed's next move and if they need to make a deeper cut in september. to say it is weighing on the market is an understatement. dow off 670 points. all of this pressure coming from asia and europe. the s&p 500 would fall 142 points this morning. nasdaq looking to open down a whopping 791 points. we'll go through the big stocks, including nvidia, apple and others that are getting hit and hit hard. nasdaq now off more than 10% from the record set last month. three straight weeks of losses. take a look at treasury yields as well. we are looking at the ten-year at 3.76%. the two-year is at 3.79%. nikkei selling off overnight. that is where so much of the pressure has come from.

the index losing 12.4% in tokyo. the worst day for tokyo trading since black monday 1987. you can look at the historical charts. now look at the european markets. putting pressure on the u.s. markets. some of the unwind on the carry trade of the yen. the ftse 100 off close to 2%. dax off over 2%. you see the cac 40 in france off 2%. italy now close to off 3%. now we're going to talk about crypto which is also down. >> the japanese market down almost 20% in a week. almost bear market in a week. as gold is hitting all-time highs. >> bitcoin is going in the other direction. >> when people need money to cover margins somewhere else, whatever's up, they sell. the crypto market, like the

nasdaq on steroids, not escaping the global selloff. $270 billion wiped out in value. bitcoin at 73. then around 65. then it was 61 last week. dropped below 50,000 briefly before rebounding. ether was down more than 20% at one point overnight. it's biggest single-day plunge since may of 2021. check out the vix, the volatility index, which how many times have we said what is happening? how long can it be so quiet? there it is. you can see. that's a week. that doesn't look much different than a much longer chart where it was just stuck in the low teens. we're going to get into crypto and the market selloff and more with fund strat's tom lee in a few minutes. just preparing to talk to tom about this saying one thing on wednesday. a few more things on thursday. a couple more things on friday.

people at his firm saying some things. i think 5,390 is one of his people said. there's great support on the s&p at 5,3990. the s&p closed at 5,346 and indicated down another 100. that is support if you want to talk hot butter through a knife, i know it is a hot knife through butter. i know support levels are made to be broken, obviously. that one's gone. what scares me? >> what scares you? >> it's august. late august. typically things like this in the past, there is no reason to think about it. >> it happens in september. >> or the bottom is always in october. >> in october. if you go back to 1929. >> 1987. we can mention the last five or six or seven. october. actually, 2022, 2023.

>> it was march. >> that was more protracted. october, you can pick a day that ends with a teen in october and there's been a terrible market day that occurred there. this is from august to october. >> that's just us being superstitious. >> no, i'm not. >> you think there is a rationale? >> i think the seven stocks and given the kind of gains we saw and the popularity of those trades and the market caps. we all were asking is it too high or is it similar to 1989? no one is saying a.i. is not going to be a powerful, you know, thing in the future. transformative, no doubt. people get excited and things go too far. we said that maybe we get a bigger cut in september.

the fed, if you look at fed futures, there's a chance they do one of those, you know, in between meetings they do a 50-basis point cut. a better than 50% chance. 60% is where the fed futures are. >> they have jackson hole. they could do it there. >> we don't want to scare people. when you see the nasdaq down 800 points, that's come back a little. when it is down after the week we had last week -- >> right. >> i don't care. i'm still watching the olympics today. the daytime view is really -- >> here's the question. i know we have to talk other stuff. david faber on friday said to me on the air, he said how do the ceoss feel? this is in paris. i said the way they were acting -- again, we saw them early in the week before things started to tumble. there was no sense that this

fall and this winter were going to be bad. >> that's not good. >> i know. i'm just saying was that a contra indicator? what's the mood of the corner office? >> when was the greatest mood in the history of the economy and people felt we had the greatest president in the world and i did an interview and asked him about that one patient in washington and if it would turn into anything. remember davos? >> i remember. >> the envy of the world. everyone was so happy about everything. davos is always -- >> contra indicator. >> it's sad that the guys that should know sometimes, like ceos, are sometimes the last to know. how about our friend w.b.? >> w.b., warren buffett, selling half of his stake in apple. >> that is voting with your feet. >> that is voting with your

feet. >> half sgl. >> he clearly thinksone of two things. either -- >> what did he say when he called you? >> i didn't speak to him. i haven't spoken about it. by the way, there have been some people who questioned this new super cycle that everyone has been talking about. this a.i. inspired cycle where everyone will get a new phone. i'm not sure everyone will get a new phone. it may take two or three years before anybody needs a new phone anyway because it is not game changing. >> now you are specific to just apple. >> you think he is making a market call? i need cash. i'm ready to go. >> the look on the guy's face when he has $200 billion plus in cash and the market is plunging. that's the look of the guy. >> he is thinking and hearing sale on aisle five right now. maybe not right now. >> you know what?

in times like this is when he steps in and gets a company like goldman to convert with a 10% dividend or something. they give it to him. >> you know this only happens once every 10 or 20 years. >> i see. are you taking nodtes? you have chapter one done yet? >> i don't know. let's show you shares of apple right now. shares of apple taking a hit on the back of the news because over the weekend, warren buffett did come out publicly disclosing it sold half of the stake in apple. buffett trimmed his apple stake in the first quarter and hinting at the annual meeting it was for tax reasons. berkshire sitting on a record cash pile 277billion. they trimmed stake in bank of america selling about $4

billion. i remember i was sitting in omaha during the meeting. by the way, tim cook was in the audience during that meeting. warren has a way of saying praised by name and criticized by category. if he is getting out of the stock, he said it is the largest position and has the confidence in tim cook. i'm not saying he doesn't have confidence in tim cook considering he is the largest shareholder. i'm just saying he is a very discreet and polite man publicly. >> yeah. it wouldn't have helped if he showed his hand. >> well, that, too. >> that's what i mean. you are calling discreet and kindly. i'm calling it crafty. >> you think he was planning to get out the entire time from may

on? >> right. >> you think it had nothing to do between everything may and now and where jobs are -- >> i think he had a good idea. when you are selling that much, it is good if no one knows your true intentions. >> i don't disagree. if people know your intentions. >> anyone as good as he is at what he does, they would do it that way. he may have been born at night, but it wasn't last night. right? how is the aura ring? >> i'm doing okay on the sleep. i woke up early. i'm with it. >> what time is it over there right now? >> it's noon. >> someone won a gold medal? >> yeah. it's noon. >> we won a lot. >> you know who we will talk to today? >> no. >> carl quintanilla. you know who he talked to? >> noah lyles.

>> katie ledecky. >> noah lyles. that was fun to watch. >> did you watch tennis? >> i saw him cry. i saw scottie scheffler cry. i don't care about -- >> some people are waking up looking at our screens here and they're crying for other reasons. >> they are. we will stick with that. thank god we got a week left to take our minds off some of this. coming up, fund strat's tom lee. he'll be on. he'll talk about if he is changing his strategy. the futures right now are stable. that's about the best you can say. the dow and nasdaq have a seven handle with the negative sign. s&p is down 150. "squawk box" is coming right back an. ameritrade is now part of schwab.

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futures at this hour. tom is here. for more, let's bring in tom lee at fund strat global advisors. it would help to know, tom, if it is a sharp, scary spike down, which a lot of times the other

side looks just like it, or people are hoping for that so much that they don't see it might have longer to go. do you get the feeling this is not going to be a major selloff? >> for now, i think it is the former that you described. we have over three days suddenly markets reverse and japan down over 20%. as you are pointing out, the nasdaq could even decline further. declines like that are generally symmetric. you have to watch the vix. when the vix peaks and starts to rollover and fall down, the recovery can be just as quick. i think a lot of this depends on whether financial conditions in the u.s. start to tighten. meaning, do markets seize up? with interest rates falling, you know, the consumer is still in pretty good shape.

i think on the other side of this, it will look like a growth scare. >> it's a growth scare? >> yes. >> it's kind of interesting that it almost looks like the fed what the fed didn't do again. it is almost like once again, they are there, but not really ahead of what is happening and reacting and not anticipate anning, i guess. >> yes. >> on the way up and way down. >> yeah. the two-year is signaling the fed is behind. two-year yields have fallen further. it does seem like as we look back a lot more, this is because of the surprise hike from japan and the knock-on effecting from there. if that the primary source of the reaction, i know it's going to be tumultuous for markets. for the u.s. economy, it is not necessarily bad news. i think that's why we can

balance. >> your great and accurate calls have been based on inflation coming in like you thought, much cooler than the market was thinking at the time. i guess the flip side of that is there can be a dual mandate. there can be labor market veh weakness with why that's happening. maybe it wasn't symmetrical. >> markets don't like surprise. friday's jobs report was disappointing. >> how far back did they go with revisions down? it was like the whole narrative was suspect. >> i think many expected that. the established versus household had gaps. that is converging. that means markets are waiting until august payroll report which is not until four more weeks to really know. i would say to me it seems like july, even as bad of a report it

was, it is more of an aberration. >> a couple of things in it? >> almost a record number of people with temporary layoffs and people not working due to bad weather. texas had a big spike in jobless claims. it looks like the hurricane had effect, but the boe said it had no effect. >> people at your shop said 5,390. do support levels mean anything? you want to give me another one or just another one to go through? >> well, you know, because it didn't hold, it means that there are other support levels that could be important. >> it might not hold? >> it could not. i think the vix is telling us that. >> watch the vix? >> yeah. it spiked friday and it's spiking again today. the last time the vix was at this level was april of 2020. for an investor, that tells us kind of where we are which is we

know markets are nervous and they have to unwind, but it's not been a bad time to be thinking there's a big opportunity there because once the vix starts to calm down and the markets correct, there is opportunity. knowing it is august. >> you think the vix high 40s is where it's going to peak or low 50s? it's up 100% almost. >> yeah. the vix may not have a ceiling because we know the next couple days there is also some geopolitical events on the horizon. >> israel. >> yeah. >> and iran. you know, we have politics here. >> that's escalating. some people think that will turn into a nightmare this week. >> today. >> today or tomorrow. >> i think that's why it is all coming to a head this week. to me, it is a very important week. we know it is hard to catch a falling knife. as you mentioned, support levels

are broken. the consumer is in good shape. the job market, i think it is unlikely -- >> if the knife is falling, you like catching falling knives. i know you. the question is at what point do you catch said knife? >> i spent a lot of time talking to mark, our strategist over the weekend. i do believe there is a reprieve coming this week. who knows? it could be today. we could open low and after 11:00 a.m., we could reverse higher. i agree with joe. this is still august and the market's traction doesn't come back until october. between now and october, it is a range-bound market at best, but there'll still be opportunities. >> we could call it nvidia. it might as well be. what is bitcoin? gold is hitting new highs. yields. people look for safety. they buy treasuries. they buy gold. people don't buy bitcoin for safety. >> bitcoin is still mostly a

risk-on asset. there's potentially lots of liqui liquidation. >> to get money? >> margin calls. >> what does it say to you long-term about bitcoin? does it say anything to you? >> i think as it is more widely held, it will be increasingly a risk-on asset. >> we shouldn't think of it as digital gold? we should think of it as something else? a speculative tool that's in the nasdaq-y camp? >> it's both. >> i don't get that. both part. >> i agree. it obviously has and some people think it has value, but when you need it and you need to turn that value into cash for margin calls, you will sell if it is

up. >> then it would be a stored value. a stored value in the speculative going up camp. gold is the thing. >> still storing $52,000 of value versus $8,000 of value. >> i agree. most people sell their stocks and buy gold. people. that's the trade that people do when they are in that category. >> are stocks ever a stored value? >> you never heard me they were stored value. >> people buy them because you hope they have value and you hope to sell for more value than they had. they still fluctuate as much as bit bitcoin. >> that's the trade. >> 52-week highs and lows of blue chips. there is still vau lu value, bu any given day. if they had to try to get that market cap by selling. they would get one-third of market value. >> if you were trying to

liquidate the entire s&p. it wouldn't be stable. >> yeah. i was watching "napoleon" on the plane, andrew, and joaquem phoenix saying you are printing money and it will be gone the next week. we print money and it's gone the next day. pr printing too much. tom, thank you. >> thank you. coming up, we've got more coverage of what is turning out to be a market selloff this morning. at 7:10 a.m. this morning, don't miss this. wharton school professor jeremy siegel says the fed is behind the curve. somebody who has been quite optimistic taking a bit more of a negative view this morning.

first, crowdstrike firing back at delta after the outage costing delta millions. you have to see what they said about all this when we come back. plus, as we head to break, check out the biggest losers on the dow. you are looking at apple, intel, ae amazon and nike in extended trade. apple off 8% in the pre-market. we're back after this. no. how am i going to do this? welcome to the mdy mid-cap cup, presented by state street global advisors. today's challenge is to play 9 holes without the middle of your bag. how does that sound? that sounds terrible. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

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welcome back to "squawk box." crowdstrike says it is not to blame for the cancellations at delta after the outage.

ed bastian said the cancellations cost the airline $500 million and they have no choice but to seek damages. >> everyone talks about big tech is responsible. guys, this cost us $500 million. we have no choice. over a period of five days, not just the lost revenue, but tens of millions of revenue of compensation and hotels. we did everything to take care of customers over that time. if you are going to have access prior to the delta ecosystem in technology, you have to test the stuff. you can't come into a mission critical 24/7 operation and tell us we have a bug. it doesn't work. >> you know, in a letter responding to the public comments, crowdstrike says the threat of a lawsuit have contributed to a misleading narrative that the cybersecurity company was responsible for the airline's tech decisions and response to the outage. crowdstrike's attorney saying

delta turned down on huf-site assistance. delta has not commented on the crowdstrike letter. at some level, crowdstrike has to take some responsibility. you can argue that delta could have done other things differently. this cost them $500 million. mult iply that by the other airlines and companies that had other problems. if crowdstrike was responsible for the collective liability that this cost, all of its clients, that would be quite something. they are saying they have no liability, effectively. >> once again, both things can be true at the same time. delta would not have had trouble, once the problem started, did they muck it up further than anybody else? >> it sounds like they relied more on software that was controlled by crowdstrike, including personnel and where they were placed around the

company. it was not just the planeplanes people getting to the right places. >> where is the cloud? >> it's up there or down there and there and there. >> is it -- it's on servers everywhere. >> it's in a server farm somewhere in the midwest. >> using a lot of fricking energy. coming up, a rare winner among the carnage. we will tell you what stock is soaring. as we head to break, take a look at the tech mega caps. not as mega as they used to be. "squawk box" is coming right back. >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business. next level moments need the next level network. oh, thank you so much i couldn't have done it without you. honestly, i don't do a whole lot here. i'm really just here for the at&t internet, it's super-fast so, any pre-launch concerns? what if nobody buys them?

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welcome back to "squawk box." mars in talks to buy kellanova which could value the company at $30 billion. kellanova was spun off from kellogg last year and owns eggo and pringles and pop tarts and

cheez-its. it's my kids favorite company. >> it's one of my favorites. >> the stock soaring on the back of the news up 11% right now. we will keep our eyes on that deal amidst the market turmoil. if you want a winner among losers, this is it. >> pringles was a proctor & gamble product which they sold. you have to look at the shape of the bripringle. it's a beautiful thing the way it stacks. you like crepes or eggos? >> a crepe crawl is better. next time we will do a gelato crawl. >> don't you like ice cream more than gelato? >> not in italy. >> i know.

i've had it there. what i don't like is something with zero fat. it pretends to be ice cream. coming up, markets are tumbling this morning. is the fed behind the curve again? could something happen before that? kansas city fed president tom mahoney will join us next.

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welcome back to "squawk box." for a look at the fed future rate path all of this following the weak jobs report and a market selloff this morning. we have former kansas city fed president tom mahoney. joining us right now. tom, it's great to see you. i appreciate it especially given where things are starting this

morning and what we saw on friday with the jobs number and then this selloff that seems to be spurred about uncertainty in japan that cascaded here. what do you make of what happened friday and what do you make of what's happening right now? >> i think, first of all, the economy is apparently slowing. i think everyone now recognizes that, perhaps. that's as intended. the fed's been in a relatively tight mold for some time trying to get inflation numbers down. i'm not sure anyone should be surprised by the numbers. it was a little bit on the upside, perhaps, but unemployment is still 4.3%. inflation is still between 2.5% and 3% depending on which of the two majors you look at. so, we are in a slowdown period and i think that's going to take us further down the road to

getting price inflation down towards the goal. now, the market is reacting and the market, many people thought, fairly frothy spot to begin with. so that's backing off. the real economy is slowing, modestly and still probably continue to slow, but it's not falling apart. i mean, gdp was up in the second quarter. it's leveling off, but it's still reasonably good. those are important things to remember as well. finally, real interest rates, if you think about the rate the fed fund rating 5.25% plus and inflation 2.5% to 3%, real rates are still above 2%. i think that's by intent to bring it down. so, there's probably room to cut and i think the fed will do that, but i don't think we should be panicked as much as

the market indicates. >> tom, as you have been speaking, the dow has continued to fall. if we opened up right now, we would open up down, if you will, on the dow about -- well, we would be off 1.5%. >> 900 on the nasdaq. >> tom, one of the questions that's been asked is whether you think the fed might try to cut before september given that it now appears they have been late. >> if you are judging by the stock market itself, that's one thing. if you are talking about the economy more broadly, there is pressure there. so, to answer your question, if the fed is concerned about the real economy more than the stock market, it could decide to have an interim conference call or

meeting or telephone meeting. that's been done. greenspan did it more than once or twice, for sure, and others. that's a possibility, yes. >> and the re economy, obviously, is different from the stock market, tom. there's something called the wealth effect. depending how far this goes, people don't feel as flush and companies might look at what's happening and say why would i hire going into something like this? you know, we already saw intel with maybe lot of those were government jobs and losers for the last eight or nine months, i don't see anyone hiring at this point. then it feeds on it sself. >> if fear takes over and it can, it has in the past, and you get people panicked in the real economy as well as the stock market, you could have a much

quicker slowdown in the economy than what you hoped for if you are an fmoc member. there's no question they have to pay attention to that. at the same time, we still have inflation well above the target. you have to be mindful of that. keep that in mind. there is room to cut when real interest rates are above 2%. there's room to cut. >> would you cut before september, tom? >> if the data, if the cpi numbers, especially the cpi numbers come in this month lower this month, you would have a rationale for an interim cut. if it came in down well from the 3% number, you could come down. if i were the fed, what i would be saying is we're going to follow the cpi or pce depending on your timing. we're going to follow it down and move rates down. that way you take some of the

politics away, but you are in a way saying we're going to cut rates in a systematic fashion. i don't see anything wrong with doing it that way. >> tom, i want to thank you. it's quite a morning to have out the broadcast during all this. >> thank you. >> i hope to talk to you again soon. >> sure. you bet. >> we should mention at 8:30 a.m. eastern time, we will talk to chicago fed president austan goolsbee about his take on the numbers on friday and what we are seeing in the markets this morning which is clearly a selloff, a rout, i don't know what you want to describe it all ahead of the market open. dow off 820 points. nasdaq down 870. s&p looking to open down 872 points after japan having the worst day since 1987.

coming up, vice president harris may soon have her running mate to take on form psint trump and jd vance. "squawk box" returns in judst a moment.

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joining us now, mike allen, cofounder of "axios." i'm just considering all these things swirling around here, mike, a lot of times the real world, the best laid plans, you know, we've got these wonderful feel good olympics and at the same time, i'm worried about iran's response, whether that could be today, and we're talking about a stock market that hasn't seen this type of

selloff in quite a while. with that as a backdrop, the vice president has no choice other than to make that choice today or tomorrow. she's got to have someone ready to go by tomorrow. that's coming either way even if it's not a great time in the news cycle for it. >> you're exactly right, joe. we talk about a split screen. what i said at the top of my news letter "axios" am this morning, today you're going to need three screens. the possibility of imminent escalation in the mideast, the ro rout that you've been covering all morning and the veep, a self-imposed deadline by vice president harris. she said that tomorrow night, tomorrow evening she'll appear in philadelphia with her choice as they kick off a seven-city five-day tour of the swing states, and what's the latest? what are the odds? so what's very interesting about this, joe, is this could well have come down to the vice

president's feel as she met in person with these finalists in washington this weekend. now, joe, as your viewers know, for a week now wall street has been convinced that the pick was going to be governor yjosh shapiro of pennsylvania or some governor because there's been communication from the campaign that financial services firms should get their contributions in by this weekend, and the assumption was that was to avoid triggering the s.e.c.'s pay to play rule, which prevents you from giving to state officials. that rule applies to state official when is they're running for federal office. so the deduction on wall street was it's going to be a governor. joe, your viewers like data, math plus logic has pointed now for several days to governor josh a shapiro of pennsylvania, age 51. here's the biggest reason,

pennsylvania is the ball game. if vice president harris wins pennsylvania, she likely is president, and even the trump team is convinced that if she picked josh shapiro that would take pennsylvania off the table. >> looking at the final choices, every one of them has some really solid, you know, benefits and at the same time, some downside. it's amazing how it works. i would do like a ben franklin close on each of them. i can do walz. shapiro is strong. he's a great speaker too. i don't know if you've been watching him lately. he kind of does remind me of what people say one of the great -- greatest orators of our generation, whether you love him or don't love him quite as much. he's got some of the cadences as somebody else. do you think it's going to be

shapiro's? >> that's in the vice president's head, the second gentleman's head. this is a classic washington case where if you know you ain't talking. if you're talking, you don't know. >> you don't believe that leak last week? it almost looked like someone knew -- someone said she's going to be appearing with governor shapiro. that would have been a horrible time for it to come out before a weekend. >> yeah, and the fact that it's in philadelphia seems like a massive clue, definitely is being taken that away. but you can make the case for the others. kentucky governor andy beshear, 46, looks like the future as one democrat put it to me. but vice president harris with governor beshear, governor tim walz of minnesota, a lot of push for him this weekend, a lot of big names, especially on the progressive part of the democratic party pushing hard for governor walz over this weekend, convinced that the pick

was not made. and senator mark kelly of arizona, a tweet last night made it look for a little bit like he thinks it's not him. one democrat pointed out to me, you just say astronaut and fighter pilot, you've got my attention. a lot of trstrengths among othe options. secretary pete buttigieg someone who has a great future in the democratic party and president biden's cabinet. someone that is close to the vice president and someone to keep an eye on. >> what's your betting line here, mike? you've got shapiro. >> the signs point towards that. the signs don't point away. over the weekend, you saw a push of people including some union leaders. you saw senator bernie sanders saying that he was for tim walz of minnesota. that's why i say it's very much with the vice president and a fascinating term would be that in this final vetting, these big

books that former attorney general -- >> a business question a lot of criticism came from the business community that watches this network frankly at the biden administration because a lot of the people that they felt that he appointed around him were not necessarily, quote, business friendly or necessarily even super business nowledgeable. the question is, you know, there's a big story in the times about tony west from uber who's been advising vice president harris, of course, there's a a family relationship there. do you think that a president harris, if she were to win would be more business friendly, less business friendly. you talk about bernie sanders on the other end and what the push/pull pressures are. >> i can tell you, and i know you hear the same thing from your ceos in paris and elsewhere. they just want someone to listen and ceos have felt that this white house has not been good listeners as my siblings would say to their kids, and that's a

place that vice president harris could make an overnight difference. that's a place that tony west her brother-in-law -- >> do you think she wants to make an overnight difference? >> that would be a way to do it and the fact that tony west is one of her top advisers, even taking on a formal role, that's a sign of that. i can tell you business likes it. you and i have both known tony over the years and could be a very important conduit for her as she builds this coalition and this incredible 90-day sprint t, it's like building a startup in record time. "axios" cofounder mike allen, we're coming right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box." it is 7:00 a.m. on the east coast. you are watching squawk here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen. becky's off. a global market selloff taking place literally as we speak. if the dow opened up right now, we would open down 780 points. the nasdaq looking to open down 790 points. we're looking at the s&p 500 expecting to fall about 150 points. the nasdaq now in correction territory officially down more than 10% from its 52-week high. the s&p is off 6%. take a look at treasuries because they're on the move wa as well. the two-year at 3.760. oil right now, you're looking at wti crude down to 7231, and then

crypto not in place of gold at this point. it's almost a reflection of where the nasdaq is off 13% this morning, sitting just at 51,028 -- $51,302, and all of this a bit of a chain reaction both from the jobs number that we heard on friday and then overnight japan's nikkei plunging 12%. this is the worst day since the 1987 black friday crash. a little bit of this is an unwind of the carry trade on the yen. we can talk about what that means in a moment. i want to get straight over to dom chu who's looking at some of the big movers in the stock market including nvidia and apple, which are taking it on the chin this morning. >> if you take a look at the specific names, we'll get things started with a chip maker check, if up, and specifically, andrew to , to your point, nvidia. those shares are down 9% in the

premarket trade. its upcoming ai chips, the blackwell next gen will be delayed by three months or more due to potential design fraus. that could have major implications for hyperscalers like meta platforms, alphabet, microsoft who have reportedly oe ordered tens of billions of dollars of those chips. as you can see here, we've got super micro computer, broadcom, taiwan semiconductor, micron among some sof those names. that's not helping matters. it's still a bigger downdraft, and you mentioned the berkshire and apple news. berkshire down by about 4%, apple down by about nearly 8% at this point. that's after warren buffett's conglomerate disclosed. it holds roughly 2.6% of the iphone maker stock.

berkshire's total cash levels are surging to a record $277 billion as of the end of june. so berkshire and apple in the news, big moves to the downside, and we'll end with shares of tesla. those shares now sinking by more than 7.5%, again, indicative of a global selloff here. the electric vehicle maker shares are hit hard over the course of the last seven days, down 17% in the last week or so. you can kind of see that potential movement down about 23% on a year-to-date basis. as we talk about some of the stocks, andrew, that are maybe indicative. they are such heavy weights in the market cap waiting universe that we have to deal with. they are going to be more indicative of the overall market. i'll send things back over to you guys. >> what are you thinking, jo? do you think this is a lot or a little? >> no, when you said the dow's down 4, that's nothing. the s&p down 6, we can do that. we usually do that a couple of times a year.

>> so you think we should just take a chill pill? >> no, i'm saying i think this is a -- i'm feeling like a nasdaq person. that's what the pain feels like right now over 10%, like an actual correction. if the nikkei can go down 12% overnight, then 4% on the dow or 6% on the s&p could get -- we could see la little bit more before a real bottom. maybe not. since we're feeling the fear of the nasdaq and the vix, maybe that's not the question. maybe we shouldn't be watching the s&p. >> i think we go back to the tom leap piece, do you end up bouncing this week, and is it a long-term bounce, or are we really not going to know where we really stand until october? >> make a temporary stand. maybe -- >> this guy might know the answer. intel shares plummeting. we won't talk about intel shares right this second. we will with this guy.

wolfe researcher and senior analyst, by the way, boy did it get hit last week. >> it did. what happened with intel was something very specific to them. it's about the investment that they've been making to repair their manufacturing and the fact they've missed ai. it's a bit at odds with why nvidia has been so strong. it's actually not separate because intel's missing out on ai is one of the reasons why they're in the situation they're in right now. but it doesn't spiel to, you know, what's happening in nvidia, which is still considerable strength. >> here's the question, on a morning like this when you see the stock at this price, do you say to yourself, you know, we were talking about sir warren buffett's sale on aisle 5. are you thinking this is

fabulous or are you thinking thunderst this is a falling knife? >> i always have respect for the markets when they're doing something like today and what they did on friday. with respect to nvidia, the fundamentals are strong. it never got to a bubble like valuation. we're at $4 earnings for 25 for nvidia, i think it's going higher than that. it's about 25 multiple. that's a really good price for what's arguably one of the most important stocks in the market. >> when you think about going more broadly now, think ai for a second, that's the other piece of this. we're looking at apple this morning down, i know it's not a stock you cover per se, it's indicative of the larger issue we saw warren buffett take his stake in the company down. i think that's also weighing on apple in addition to everything else that's going on. do you see a sort of massive super cycle, if you will, over the next year or two because of ai in terms of all hardware upgrades across the board, or do

you see a lot of chips being sold to power the ai but in the clouds? >> well, it's really -- you could break it into three buckets. one is ai for nvidia themselves, which is, you know, powering the models itself. >> right. >> that's the first thing you need -- >> first order of business, and that's not going away. >> that's not going away. >> then the second part is with regard to, you know, smartphones and then pcs. we're much more bullish on ai and smartphones, and a lot of that is because of what apple did, which says you have to have an iphone 15 pro or better to run apple ai, whether or not you need it, whether or not you want it. that's because apple has control of the ecosystem in doing that. >> we're less bullish on that from the pc side. that's because, neither microsoft nor intel can, you know -- it's not in microsoft's interests to force you into buying a new pc, for example. >> because nvidia was 141. it's going to open today at 96.

that's 32% right there, so, you know, it was over 3 trillion. it theoretically could be at some point under 2 trillion. if nvidia has been the market leader, obviously it went much further than anything else, but we're not looking for the nasdaq to go down 32%, are we? it's only down 10. as we were saying, the s&p and dow are down 6 and 4%. nvidia's down 32%. who catches one whom? >> well, and remember, nvidia, the rise of nvidia was commensurate with the rise in earnings. they make money -- >> then what is this? what's it doing now? it's down 32%. >> i would imagine we've spoken to investors over the last week, and some of that was you see potentially what's happening in the market, you know, people sniffing out this pullback. nvidia's a stock for which they made the most amount of money,

that's where your profits are. hi a really good year. let's not screw up the year right now, let's take some money off the table. >> can i go back to the hardware issue of the phone? i think there's a lot of people thinking about that this morning. i'm going to give you the bearish case, if you will. if you think that the consumer is going to get weak, it's going to get harder to just afford the phone, you say it's a luxury item and there's folks who have enough money, it doesn't matter. the second part of the component is whether you think there's enough of a step change in the software and how quickly that comes. one of the things we heard last week is that some of the apple intelligence stuff may not start in october when they introduce the phone. it may take six months or three months or five months or more, right? we don't know. so maybe then you're into '25, '26. so how quickly do people decide i need to upgrade because otherwise -- you know, it's a life changing zing experience. >> right. you know, it's a question over whether that cycle happens this year with this iphone or it

happens over time. we're more of the view that it happens over time burkt i still think about -- >> is that built into the stock? the apple stock. >> it's not a stock we cover, but for the ecosystem, for example, qualcomm, all the other chip names that are on it, i think at this point, you know, especially with the pullbacks that we've gotten right now, you know, they're not reflecting the longer upfwgrade cycle we see. >> people call you and do you say this is cheap, buy, buy, buy or do you say hold your fire? >> personally i think this is a bid of a mid cycle correction because we haven't seen it in the fundamentals. we haven't seen -- you know, if we were to see ai adoption, for example, slowing down, that would be a concern to me. what we heard this quarter so far from the hyperscalers, for example, is that capex spending is really strong right now. and the reason is they just have no ability not to spend right now. and that's good for my stocks.

>> chris, thank nch coming up, running for cover. jeremy siegel tells us why he thinks the fed needs to make an emergency rate cut. we've been talking a little bit about it. we'll be right back. ♪

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futures right now sharply lower, 800 on the dow. nasdaq was down indicated more than 900. we want to show you the volatility index, the vix, which we have talked about quite a bit was down in the low teens.

up 26 points today. it's been over 50 at one point, 49.80 49.80 and earlier tom lee said when we see the vix peak coming down a little, that could indicate some kind of -- >> joining us is chief economist at wisdom tree, and jeremy, i hate -- you probably aren't happy to say i told you so either given, you know, what we're witnessing, but you thought the fed was staying -- once again for the second time staying at the party too long and too restrictive. >> absolutely. this may surprise people, i'm calling for 75 basis point emergency cut in the fed funds rate with another 75 basis point cut indicated for next month at the september meeting, and

that's minimum. the fed funds rate right now should be somewhere between, you know, 3.5 and 4%. let me give you very simple logic of my position here. at the june meeting, the fed has said that the long run fed funds rate when inflation reached 2%, and unemployment has come up to 4.2%, should be 2.8. that's the normal. 2.8 is the normal fed funds rate. well, on friday we blew across the employment number. we're at 4.3. that even argues for a lower one. as far as inflation, we're at 2.5%. we've gone down 90% towards the target on the inflation rate. we've over shot the target on the employment.

those are the two targets explicitly mentioned by the federal reserve. all right, and how much have we moved the fed funds rate? zero. that makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. >> if we d-- jeremy, you know there's no way we're getting 75 and then another 75. if we do, i don't want to see what's happening in the stock market if the fed is compelled to do 75 twice. so you know it's not going to happen. you're saying that they should. what do you really think will -- do you think they'll do an -- >> they're not going to do 375. listen, i remember 2000 when green span did 50. the market wasn't scared. the market rallied sharply. it was the same thing, december they should have cut. they didn't cut in the markets. you should have, and they did an emergency cut a few weeks later,

the market made a strong rally from that position. listen, joe, don't think that the fed knows something, like, oh, we're afraid the fed knows something. since when has the fed known anything about the economy? >> we don't need anyone -- we don't need to worry about anyone thinking that that the fed -- >> no, not at all. look what happened three years ago. >> in general. the market knows so much better than the fed. so i mean, they've got to respond. listen, their own stated normal fed funds rate when we hit targets is 2.8. they're basically at the target, and there's a lag in monetary. >> jeremy, let's say they do that -- >> take a look at any of the rules right now, they're all ooh 150 basis points lower. >> let's say that jay powell came out and before september, an memergency meeting, comes ou and he lowers the rate does the market rip or does the market

say oh, my goodness it's worse than we even thought? >> it rips. it welcomes it, absolutely because it's so far behind the curve rite now. the fed is up in the wlbleacher >> maybe people say oh goodness, if they're willing to make an emergency cut today, boy there's g got to be something around the corner. >> it's not going to happen. >> the next couple of weeks. >> i think it should. ic i think they should say, listening, you take a look at the data, it is not at all comforting. the hiring, employment part of the ism that we got was just absolutely horrible. i mean, forget about the sam rules and all that that are predicting recession, i'm looking at the fed's own data ask and the fed's own written

policy. 28 when we are at and near the target, they overblew one target, and they're 90% towards the other target. period. >> jeremy, there's no reason to think given how long it took to move off of zero, there's no reason to think that they're going to take your advice on this. maybe they do, but maybe not. what if they don't, then the s&p right now is only down 6% from the highs. the dow is only down 4 p%. nasdaq is down 10. how do you think the market will react if it doesn't look like the fed's going to do anything before september? >> i think the market will react badly, very honestly. i mean, you know, if they're going to be as slow on the way down as they were on the way up, which by the way was the worst policy error in 50 years, then

we're not in for a good time with this economy. and the fed has to recognize, i mean, i'm just restating their own written policy, 2.8 normal fed funds. they haven't moved one basis point. they're nearly twice their normal fed funds. >> jeremy, people are pointing out when greenspan did do that, you know, the emergency cut, initially the market rallied, but then it went to new lows after that. >> yes, yes, it did. yeah, so you can imagine if he didn't do the cut, it would go even further down. >> is that what we're looking at now? >> it was a huge rally when that cut, emergency cut -- finally the fed is beginning to get it. now, the fed didn't prevent the recession that we had after that was a mild recession. >> is that's what's coming?

is that what's coming in your view? what? >> well, i think -- i mean, look, we had a tech bust. we had 9/11, we had a lot of things going against them. the fact that they cut made it milder than it would have been otherwise. >> are we looking at a recession now or at least the odds are higher at this point? >> i think they're higher. i mean, goldman sachs just jumped it from 15 to 25. i think it's higher. i think if the fed doesn't move, it's higher than 50%. >> jeremy, i have two questions. what do you make of the warren buffett decision on apple? >> i think it's warren -- listen, i think this is worrying about warren buffett. i have a lot of respect, we all do for warren buffett. warren buffett usually says recessions or bear markets are times to buy, not times to sell. >> i understand that, if he's selling apple -- >> but he's selling other things. he's selling bank of america,

which is arguably broad based hooe he's not buying stocks right now. normally in bear markets he puts his money to work. this is troublesome. >> it's a delayed -- the disclosures are delayed. if you think things have come down 10% in the nasdaq in the past week or two here. >> maybe he's buying today. >> i don't know. >> i don't think so. i don't see him -- he's not -- he's not a short-term trader. he saw full valley, and the fact that he is not saying anything or saying, you know, this is a time to move in, i think that's troublesome. >> that was it? >> well the second question i was going to ask was do you think that politics is going to play into this at all given that we're in the middle of an election, and how that plays. >> i mean, it shouldn't. jay powell said he was very

firm -- >> no, but what i'm asking is a different question. there's some people that are trying to tie the fall -- >> even trump now has said, oh, i'm going to keep jay powell until the end of his term in 2026. >> jeremy, there's some people that are correlating the fall in the markets to what appears to be a much tighter race between now vice president harris and former president trump. >> i don't -- i don't think the race, i don't think, you know, iran or japan is sothe source o this slowdown. i think it's in washington, d.c. at the federal building. >> i tried to figure that out too, an ddrew. i don't know initially whether there's anything to that. but this certainly is not good from here if it continues.

>> that's what i asked i'm not sure. >> the fed isn't political. they wouldn't cut to try to help would you trade your 75 basis point cut for a really weakening economy? that's the thing. be careful what you wish for. you might get some cuts before the election, but not for anything good. not for a good reason. >> that's why i didn't know the market would rip. people say the market would rip if it goes lower. >> we heard it, it may have ripped and went to new lows anyway even under greenspan. >> we have a lot more great guests to help us through a market selloff this morning. chicago fed president austan goolsbee is with us. we're going to talk to him about everything he is seeing and more. we're coming right back.

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new july fund-raising figures are in, and megan casola. >> harris has kicked off her campaign on a fund-raising tear. she outraised trump for the month of july 310 million versus 139 million, that more than doubled the campaign's june total from when biden was atop the ticket. the question is whether that can last or whether it's a honeymoon

period. the fundraisers i'm in touch with say it will last. any skepticism about maintaining enthusiasm is unfounding. one person described by baeg bearish were volunteers or both saying there's been no slowdown in the pace of those calls. evens are still being planned. another long-time donor and fundraiser told me they have never seen anything like the enth enthusiasm. that included obama '08 campaign. while small dollar fund-raising might slow somewhat, the big donors are just getting started, and the other key for democrats and their momentum here is this compressed time line. there's no time one person told me to get bored or lose enthusiasm. and events coming up will bring a fund-raising bump. that's a selection of a running mate this week today or tomorrow. the convention leader this month and potentially a debate against trump in early september. all of this money is helping the harris team coat the air waves including with a $50 million ad

buy and open field offices. they have more than 260 now across the country, and there's a growing disparity with the trump team as just one example in georgia, harris offices outnumber trump's by 24 to 1. it shows you just how far that money can go in these final months of the campaign. andrew. >> thank you for that report, when we come back, a lot more on this market selloff this morning, if you're just waking up, you're looking at the dow off 865 points. tokyo, by the way, having its worst day since 1987. nasdaq off 850 point s as well. bitcoin taking it on the chin down close to $51,000 right now this morning. "squawk box" coming right back with all of it as we continue our market coverage.

♪ the global selloff intensifying this morning led largely by tech, want to bring in dan ives managing director at wedbush securities. the nasdaq off 856 points. apple, nvidia some of the big laggards, dan. what do you make of the selloff? it's a falling knife at the moment. do you want to catch the knife?

>> yeah, for us we're now beginning investors, this white knuckle moment, in terms of looking at tech names and the winners, what i believe is going to be this ai revolution. there's no doubt that investors over the weekend and today calling trying to say is this the end. is this the end of the tech bull market? i don't believe it is. i believe this is just a massive fear panic that will create the opportunities for nvidia, to own apple, microsoft, amazon, alphabet. that's always been our playbook the last 24 years covering tech. >> when clients call you this morning are you telling them to buy on we'll describe it as weakness. it feels like it's more than weakness? >> yeah, we've been basically -- i'll say almost table pounding in terms of put the names that you want to own that i believe are really going to view this as more of an opportunity, rather than, you know, sort of catching

a falling knife because of where the growth is. you look at earnings, you look at the numbers. i'm here actually in tokyo, you know, and across asia. the demand is here for aic. that is not leaving despite what we're seeing in the market. >> dan, i want to put apple up on the careescreen for a second of the pressure points in addition to what's happened overnight, was the disclosure that took place over the weekend saturday that warren buffett has now officially had to stake in apple. he's still the largest shareholder in the company. he's been trying to raise cash. he's obviously sold out of other stocks too, which i think is also weighing on the psyche of the market this morning. this stock now off 7%. what do you think is behind that sale? >> buffett was showing a little 1q, right? the 50% sale, that was eye popping relative, and i think

caught everyone's attention. it's going to add to pressure here. it still is number one holding. he is a huge supporter of cupertino, number one holding almost double of b of a. andrew, our view is if you look at this last quarter for apple, you look at the guidance. you look at what i view as 270 million iphones in a window upgrade opportunity. an ai driven upgrade cycle ahead of us. that's reason to own apple, not sell it. when buffett talks, everyone listens no doubt, for good reason. but this is not the time to sell apple, despite, you know, some of the nervousness here. i think this is an opportunity, especially going in to what i view as really historic upgrade cycle for apple. >> we were talking to tom lee earlier in a sort of macro way about how things are headed and what may happen over the next month or two. his sense is you're never going to -- it might be hard to get real stability until october, so

that even if you think the market rips in the next couple of days after falling that it's very hard in the month of august and historically september before you actually know whether you have your sea legs or not come october. >> yeah, look, i mean, tom obviously has great words of wisdom. it is going to be a buckle the seat belt moment over the coming months, especially even also going into the election, but if you look at the fundamentals in tech and the soft landing in a fed cutting retirement, that's the time to own tech, and i get it, the bears -- the bears have won over the last week or two, right, after being in hibernation mode the last 18 months. i get it, if you look at quality tech, large cap tech into an ai -- what i view as a once in a 40-year cycle, those are names you own here. i think that's why we're out here hand holding through this white knuckle period, not the time to head for the elevators. >> dan, this is -- i mean, the

earnings that we saw, sometimes people nitpick, but in general pretty good for the mag 7 across the board. so what we're seeing now is probably just some air coming out of the -- you know, the enthusiasm, maybe some multiple contracts. what happens if it's a negative feedback loop and actually things start softening up, and you actually do get not just the multiple side of things, but the earnings side of things. we're down 10% already in the nasdaq. where could that bottom? >> yeah, a self-fulfilling prophesy. look, i think the words there are unphonfounded. in terms of what i see here in asia in terms of are checks, demand going into the rest of the year into 2025, that will be sort of ghost that the street will be battling in terms of what could come around the

corner. if you look at the fundamentals here, i mean, they are strong for tech. balance sheets are strong, and again, it goes into a once in a 40 year type of cycle in terms of spending for ai. there's going to be losers in this. look at intel, that was obviously a disaster and some others, but in terms of quality tech, big cap tech in terms of software, semis, those are names you own here, and you don't sell them te despite obviously a lot nerves going on across the globe today. >> dan, we appreciate you joining us as we have this market selloff taking place, and we're trying to make some sense of it. so appreciate it, thank you. coming up, the selloff hitting crypto prices as well this mornings, more on that after the eabrk, but "squawk box" coming right back, quick break.

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...and full bed protection... trucks are totally covered. you just got weatherteched. yeah, buddy. let's get dirty. [bikes in mud.] drive worry free with these american made products at weathertech.com. welcome back, i want to get some views on the fed, a rate cut probability, discussing whether there can even be an emergency rate cut. the one person who knows this stuff better than anybody at this network, steve liesman is here. help us through what's -- >> let me give you the numbers, dramatic moves in stocks, bonds, and especially the outlook for the fed. futures market priced for the

fed to slash rates aggressively beginning in september and bring the the funds rate down below 4%. there's actually some emergency cut built into the pricing. let's go through it. 99% probability of a 50 in september, 87 -- and these are changing by the way. they dramatically higher this morning on the probabilities. 25 in december, bringing a total of 150 basis points over the medical expense four meetings. it maybe be one of the sharpest turn arounds in the outlook for the fed ever. at the end of may the markets were priced for one cut and now they're highlighted for six. the shock value of that friday jobs report. too many jobless americans out there this morning for this to be anything other than a recession. wells fargo believes the fed can save the day. they see 100 basis points of cuts coming. they write that we continue to forecast that the economic expansion which has been in place since mid-2020 will remain

intact due at least in part to aggressive fed easing. believing job dpgrowth will recover in august and the fed will be happy with 25. fed chair powell indicated the fed would move. >> if the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation fall more quickly than anticipated, we will respond. >> jobless claims every thursday until the next meeting, august 15th, retail sales, industrial production. there's a jolts report as well, and the income and spending numbers on august 30th, will be important. earlier last week,ed cnbc fed survey showed forecasters looking for 2% growth this year, 2% this year. it's not to say the jobs report wasn't weak. there could be further weakness ahead, but up until the jobs report, other data pointed to about trend growth, no at

recession. in the absence of data, i don't think the fed's going to change its mind as quickly as the market has -- i think what needs to be layered into all of this, andrew, is the market bid those valuations up of those stocks very high, and all of a sudden they were concerned about those valu valuations. that layers in. i don't think the fed's going to take those valuations, that decline into account unless it becomes disorderly, and i think they're going to be much more measured. >> how do you explain what happened in tokyo overnight? i mean, we're down 12%. it's the biggest drop since 1987. part of that is a carry trade situation. is it infecting us too much? >> this is global what's happening right now. there is a reassessment of valuations in the stock market. i think jeremy siegel is 100% right about the idea that the fed was overly insistent upon being data dependent, didn't use its own forecasters. didn't believe in itself. the fed had no confidence in its

idea that we raised rates to here above a neutral rate. it did not believe in its neutral rate. it did not believe in the efficacy of its own policy, and you can see that in its statement where it says until we have the confidence. well, look, you're the central bank. you should be raising rates to the point where you actually have the confidence. >> you think it's a mistake that they haven't raised then? you're saying no. >> cut you mean? >> cut, i apologize. >> i think they probably should have been cutting on the way down. they talked about about this over a year ago, if inflation came down and they didn't move the funds rate, they were going to be more restrictive. i still think the fed is going to be more measured about this. i don't think they're going to panic the way markets are panic. i do think there's room for the fed to have moved and to perhaps m move more aggressively. chicago fed president austan goolsbee will be with us, joining us in an exclusive interview as we are watching this market selloff this morning. coming up, we're going to talk bitcoin and other digital

assets. as we head to break, here's a look at the biggest premarket laggards in the dow, s&p, and nasdaq. we're coming right back.

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global sell-off intensifies. joining us now, co-founder of the blockchain. good to see you. >> thanks for having me. >> tom lee on earlier talking about something that happened in japan, perhaps. >> i hear rumors, yes. >> not just -- something with

bitcoin? something with a big holder. do you know anything about that? >> no. i think basically what we're seeing is similar to what happened beginning of covid, where folks get a sense of something that looks like a recession. first thing they decide to sell is pretend internet money. yeah. basically like, there's quite a bit of that. >> nothing different than margin call, and if you have stocks, bitcoin or any assets that are sellable, you can take profits and maybe cover what you need to cover elsewhere? nothing further than that? i mean, gold didn't go down? >> no. bitcoin gets a shellacking, definitely cast more as a speculative currency and not treated like a lot of other currencies. >> called it "pretend." >> yes. >> saying that out loud for people? >> good to acknowledge it's a experiment. >> therefore, are you a believer in this experiment? >> very much so but good to take

it with grain of salt and note that it's a brand new market. >> do you think it's a store value? >> i think that narrative is being decimated as we speak. >> you don't think it's a store value? >> i never bought into that narrative. larger portfolio, it will correlate with more assets. >> a speculative stock? >> no. exchange value with someone you may or may not know across the internet. >> larry fink telling people go buy the etf or some of the other -- >> i think you're saying that -- you could call any asset a store value. on any given day. a store value might be x. on another day might be 2x. another day .5x. not a store value but you think there's a utility to having bitcoin be able to transact across the internet? >> very much so. i think it addresses the case. >> and addresses a core case --

>> corner case. >> corner case? >> yeah. >> so it doesn't need to be a store of value to the, to be something that's valuable and used? >> i think it addresses a fundamental problem and a technical problem that isn't necessarily panacea for everyone. the meme, a meme like a lot of other crypto culture sometimes makes sense, other times doesn't. another sort of nonsense meme around bitcoin -- >> i'm so confused. >> $10,000 worth of value for coin or $150,000 worth of value for coin? >> ask you a different question. important on the screen those who bought in by the etf. all down about 17% today. something on the order of 17%. take the screen backup on bitcoin itself. you'll see there's a differential between the etf and

bitcoin, the underlying currency. right? see it's off about 13%. >> oh, boy. >> see the distinction? arbitrage situation going on. >> yeah. >> so what does that say to you? >> i'm not super sure. >> well, the reason i ask it it is, clearly the etfs are trading as a discount, dig cantscount t under lying currency. good, bad? what does that even mean? now down 13%. flip the other screen around i wonder what the etf will be off 18%? a very interesting trade, though. >> a great opportunity for someone. >> do you see that? arbi arbitrage? >> reminds me of a closed fund almost. >> hold on. coming up when we return, a check on mortgage rates. bring you that, which are plunging after friday's jobs report. might start getting those

emails. people say refinance. this might be it, at least for now. then talking technicals with katie stockton, fairlead strategist, what she sees in the num numbers. the market continues to sell off this morning. back after this. (reporters) over here. kev! kev! (reporter 1) any response to the trade rumors, we keep hearing about? (kev) we talkin' about moving? not the trade, not the trade, we talking about movin'. no thank you. (reporter 2) you could use opendoor. sell your house directly to them, it's easy. (kev) ... i guess we're movin'.

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box." i'm joe kernen along with andrew ross sorkin and becky is off today. and hopefully -- >> big morning. >> -- not shocked what you're looking at there. those are nines. >> when we started -- >> two hours ago. 400 on the dow? 300, 400? >> no, no. started in the morning down about 700. >> got better? >> so did the nasdaq. nasdaq down 850 initially and down 7 and change. now down 900. all before, wait until 9:30, things get started in earnest, but slowdown fears.

yen, trade issues. a tough thursday. a tough friday. a bad jobs number. treasury yields dropping sharply with the rush to safety. the two-year ten-year spread very close to deinverting for the first time in more than two years. we mentioned today's rout started in japan. nikkei had its worst day since black monday way back in 1987. just overnight nikkei lost 12.4%. >> look at mortgage rates now plunging following a weaker than expected monthly employment report we saw friday. diana olick has more right now. good morning. >> good morning, andrew. yeah. rates dropped sharply friday, but actually have been falling all week from 6.81 percent on the 30-year fix last monday to 6.4% friday, and that is the lowest level since may of 2023. the recent high was 7.52% in late april and home sales falling ever since.

buyers were battling not just high interest rates, also high home prices and a lack of supply. supply has improved a little. prices are still overheated. the difference in just a few months is stark when it comes to affordability. in april, a buyer looking to buy a $400,000 home with a 20% down payment and a 30-year fixed mortgage would have been facing a monthly payment of about $2,240. that's not including insurance and property taxes. today that monthly payment drops to just $2,000. so more buy is also would qualify at today's lower rate. even bigger impact, huge number of borrowers. rates well below 5%. for those who may have bought in the last two years, this is an opportunity. at today's rate more than twice at many borrowers can benefit from a refi compared to one year

ago. a roughly 40% jump in that population just in the last week according to ice mortgage technology bases the calculation on number of qualified borrowers with rates 70 basis points higher than the current rate. percentage jumps are big overall volume low. 700,000 qualified refi candidates in the market now. you can bet rates will come down even more today given what's going on in the market. >> okay. diana, thank you for that report. we're going to keep our eyes on mortgage rates. meantime also talk equities. over to dom chu looking at individual stocks on the move including apple and that warren buffett news over the weekend and nvidia. >> big drivers in the market now and doesn't help if they come in broader context of the sell offhere. you know, you have to figure how much they're driving action. mega cap technologies in focus now. all in the red amid global sell-off.

look at so-called magnificent seven stocks biggest market cap stocks out there, talking, again, many names down by 7% or so. apple in particular on that news that berkshire hathaway cut its stake by roughly half. and amazon falling. 9% decline friday on the heels of its earnings report last week. alphabet, meta, microsoft falling by roughly 5%. apple in the headlines. a broader-based sell-off in big technology. the chipmaking side of things. nvidia specifically. shares down by roughly 12 p.5%. information upcoming artificial intelligence chips next gen 1s delayed three months or more due to potential design flaws. that delay could have implications for big cap tech names we showed you who spend a lot of money buying next gen artificial-type chips. that news among this kind of

global sell-off, holdings, super micro, broadcom, names in the red. check a few companies actually in the green today, because we're not all about fear, uncertainty and doubt. up on a "wall street journal report" the maker of anything poptarts to pringles, eggo waffles in advanced talks to possibly be acquired. to top at $3billion. privately-held mars sales, m & ms, snickers, skittles, other consumer names, tyson, dr pepper a relative bid in the market against a bigger sell-off and utility names, up 3%. consumer staples and utilities out performers now, joe. back to you. >> i see that. i see all the time on twitter. that's -- you use that. right?

uncertainty fear and doubt. >> i do. it's not all about that, but this kind of sentiment drives a lot of the, even potential opportunities in mind. >> i have felt -- andrew, have you felt each of those? you felt some fear today? >> all of those things just in the last five minutes. >> the last five minutes? >> katie stockton joining us talking technicals. fairlead strategies partner. fear, greed, two of the most important things trying to figure out investor sentiment. how thick is the fear and uncertainty right now? >> today kind of changed. on friday we saw indications of fear moving into the marketplace, which had us on the lookout for shines of a shakeout which is effectively a fall breakdown. what tends to happen, you see the vix spike the way it has done friday and now of course today up above 52 or so in the vix. with that, it's rarely a good day to sell.

what i would tell folks. even though there's some panic in the marx plait right now, you're seeing it acrossed board. multiple asset classes and countries. snapback a better selling opportunity when fear is running high as it is. >> hmm. because it looks like a really good day to sell, as far as the averages go. you're saying that, if a snapback were going you could sell at better prices but still saying "sell". >> ahead of a deeper -- >> you think that's coming? >> we do. calling a seasonal correction. thought it would start later but appears to have begun compared to the down side. snapback, a better price ahead of that seasonal correction or at least wait for new purchases. you know, a lot of clients, long-term investors will hold through this corrective sort of

phase. hedge partially top-down perspective into strength or wait to add new exposure. >> you look and plenty to, that is sort of going along for the ride here. i mean, if you look at the ten year, that's -- look at oil. >> yeah. >> all of these things. the yen. everything that's happening, bitcoin, it is a big deal. >> starting to look like it really ais a big deal. >> highlighting this carrying over a couple of months. monthly gauging, japan for one, affected with this magnitude of decline. could be the start of something worse. we don't know what's going to happen, but we can try to manage through this type of environment, and i think with a snapback probably should be managing some risk, at least through that november sort of october seasonal low period. and we feel that way with, you know, especially multiple asset classes. joining the party here.

>> let's just -- so the nvidia's down 32% now from highs. nasdaq's down over 10%. overnight the nikkei was down 12. >> i know. >> the s&p's down 6 and dow's down 4. what -- who's catching up with what and what does that -- what does the s&p need to do to reflect what we're seeing everyy else? >> seeing concentrated loss of leadership from the mega complex. heavy breakdowns today, really in both amazon and nvidia. support levels. so those mega caps are not holding short-term support. a message from them and from the market. why you're seeing underperformance from the nasdaq 100. we feel because the s&p 500 is more diversified it will do better during a corrective phase than the nasdaq 100. >> less bad? >> less bad. exactly. all relative. but we also feel there's good support for the s&p 500 around

5,000. and below that looking back around 4820. those are the levels we have in mind as we're watching this unfold. today there is a chance of a snapback even today. if that does occur as it did friday that would increase the possibility of an oversold bounce. >> 5,000 on that. how about the nasdaq? did you say that was the case? >> the percentages are always a little bigger there. we feel if they downside for the s&p say 10%, then 12, 13% for the nasdaq 100 typically. higher beta. normal. of course risk assets like bitcoin will do worse than that. seeing bitcoin spoon here this morning. so that's sort of the normal course of action. really interesting to see is how the small cap does relative to the broader market with this. had a pretty major breakout in

the russell 2000 index. an opportunity to add exposure, take advantage of that breakout. we think relative performance will stabilize. we would wait for the signs of down exhaustion more the short-term in nature to get there. more intermediate in nature. >> in the tom lee camp, maybe? short -- short-term. what's midterm? >> midterm centuried around three months. >> october? this is literally what we talked about top of the show. >> all roads lead to -- always do. yeah. the fudd will continue, too. >> one of the most reliable seasonal phenomenon to see that spoon in september. any number of reasons for it. >> give us long? >> happened in '22 and '23. >> it did. if you look across five year, ten year, 20 year time frames, consistently the worst month. by a measure, maybe people are

anticipating. >> october 31st. >> yeah. the message is we want to wait for an opportunity to add exposure that intermediate term in nature, has a sign of exhaustion with don't yet have. short-term exhaustion now but not intermediate term and i think we'll get that. right back in a moment. thank you so much. austan goolsbee in just a moment. at aes, our energy solutions have powered the world forward for more than 40 years. and as demand continues to scale, so do our solutions. introducing maximo - our new ai-enabled solar robot. max makes construction faster, safer and more cost effective than ever before. and with max doing the heavy lifting, even more people can join the team. solar energy is changing the world,

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forgot. olympics are still -- >> still going. going strong. carl quintanilla is there. >> came back just in time. welcomeback to "squawk box." futures right now. okay. called four digits now.

quad quadruple-digit loss now. since we saw a loss in the dow, nasdaq, not far from that. on a percentage basis you can see much worse. >> the nasdaq. >> then the vix now 56. 56. so tom lee was saying when you see the vix start moderating, maybe that's when the bottom comes in. so far that is not what we're seeing, because we were at 49 when he was saying that. >> meantime, big bank stocks slammed in the markets. sell-off right now. and large-cap analyst. good morning to you. watching some of the disclosure over the weekend warren buffett not just apple also bank of america getting hit in part because he's with -- selling some of that stock. what should we think about all of this? by the way, this morning bank of america off 6%. citi group 6. jpmorgan not as bad but still

off close to 4%. >> yeah. i think the buffett sale of bank of america is probably either very specific to that company, but in terms of what happened on friday, continuing to happen now, at end of the day market saying, oh, didn't want rate cut for banks. not that come in a recession. given the credit sensitivity of these banks and signs from the credit card companies that the consumer is slowing down, i think this is an indiscriminate sell-off for portfolio managers anything sensitive to higher credit losses in a weakening economy. >> when your clients call you, if they call you right after this segment, for example, and say, should we sell our bank stocks? buy our bank stocks? what would you tell them? >> buy your bank stocks. the reason i have a great background, posting a conference with a bunch of ceos and cfos across financials.

it's actually a really great time to get together. from what we're hearing even last night from management teams. they're saying to us, look, credit is still good, and rate cuts are actually going to be good for us. the curve is super inverted right now. that's not good for bank earnings. if we get some relief on the deposit side, which comes, the fed starts cutting rates, and we have a manageable recession, i think banks will take that and say, look, it's an earnings headwinds, but not going to be, you know, an issue the way the market is reacting to it right now. so, yes. we would be telling them to buy the dip in banks. es specially high-quality banks. >> fair enough. erika, thank you for joining us. good luck with the events. talk to you soon. >> thank you. coming up, chicago fed president austan goolsbee joins us as the market sell-off continues and investors try to xtgure out what the fed will do ne. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc.

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welcome back to "squawk box." take a look at futures. a market sell-off this morning and only gotten worse throughout the morning. dow jones looks like it would open down 1,167 points. nasdaq, looks like less points but on percentage basis actually much worse. looking at the nasdaq off 1,047 points. s&p 500 off by 223 points. we should probably show this in percentage terms, if you can flip the board around. stocks themselves. apple now off over 8%. also on the back of news over the weekend that warren buffett trimming his position in apple by a half. meantime, amazon, off about 8%. 7.5%. intel down 6.5% after weak days

last week. sales off over 6% as well. not show you nvidia now but chipmakers taking it on the chin as we discuss all of this. joe? >> all right. right now we take you live to paris, in the summer olympics. carl quintanilla is there and joins us with a special guest. andrew was reaching out from the ring, and he was tired, and he touched you -- and brought you in, as you guys do. now, you get the second week -- second week might be better, carl? >> he's got the athletes. >> it is a different character, week, two, joe. here at your former home trying to watch the sell-off, of course as fiercely as you are. keep one eye on the game. of course, on all the businesses surrounding the games, and on that front we do. pleased to welcome today on the rooftop with ceo. great to have you. thanks for being with us today. >> thank you.

>> we can all sees numbers. what u.s. markets are looking to do at the open. does it bring to mind concerns about growth? we've had domestic carriers in the u.s. wave warning flags, at least about things like capacity? >> you know for us, the olympics have brought a slightly negative impact on the demand. at the moment impression of recovery after the games, because some deferred travel because of the olympics. maybe more difficult, or thought it would be more difficult to visit paris, when you look at it, maybe it's best time to visit paris at the moment, and an incredible showcase of monuments and how beautiful the city is. >> you guys have done a very nice job looking at premium offers, we have tape we'll look at later. you've dibbled down on premium capacity. how much? >> increased premium capacity,

premiere and business class double increase and invest a lot, renews fleets, after incredible pace, putting $1 billion per year in renewal because it's good for customer, good for the environment. good and allows us to have those business classes, maybe you saw, with private door. >> yes. >> and, yeah. and we just also opened a new ground experience for most exclusive class. pontiac class on the ground in paris airport and later in the year we will showcase our new product. le premier. >> how do you balance that emphasis on premium and a lot leisure travel, not just corporate as news from hugo boss and other luxury fashion names, let's say? >> half of our premium lass,

travel for personal reasons. dotbot, xsaw it during covid is very resilient and in terms of capex very careful. in the past decreased a lot, premiere and exhibited aircraft during covid. those were big, big business class capacity. so in the end, i don't think we are -- i think we are safe on this side. >> finally, you have a big mission in helping everybody who's come here to cover the games, be part. games get out of town in a much more concentrated time period. right? >> exactly. the arrivals were very progressive and we've transported so far more than 10,000 delegation and athletes and everything was really smooth, but the big challenge is the departure, because everyone will depart at the same time within 24 or 48 hours from the closing ceremony. so we have worked on dedicated

processes. we have built a kind of miniature airport, directly inside the olympic village. we will be there with -- proud to have athletes check in, check in luggage. go directly to a dedicated terminal, and so really it will be -- that's why i postponed my own vacation. i want to be there. i want everything to be very easy. >> thanks for your time. good to see you. guys obviously keeping an eye on that lower bug, but paris misses you. >> we miss paris, carl, and actually appreciate you in some ways for helping distract from what is this market sell-off. before you go, though, this is important. we know you spoke to the one and only katie ledecky? >> what a weekend she had, andrew. getting her ninth gold. ties her for most gold medals of any female in olympic history. joins the ranks of mark spitz

and carl lewis. we talked to her about what's next? how much more is there to do? take a listen. >> a lot of stats get thrown at you, what you've accomplished and all that. i try to let it sink in, but i don't think it will hit me for some time. especially since i am still competing. i'm not done yet. >> pretty amazing. especially after all of those finishes, guys, they take a wide shot the pool. the only one in the return leaving competitors in the other lanes going in the opposite direction. by the way, i'm sure you, andrew and joe, probably know. er her family are enormous cnbc fans. watch from early in the morning all the way through "fast." >> don't i know it. i was there. one of the evenings she won gold. there we are. uncle, john ledecky, owns the islanders there on the right-hand side. our right, at least, their left.

>> she's going to win more in 2028, i'm sure of it. aren't you? i mean -- she's still young. >> she's still young. >> 15 when she first -- swam. yeah. and i saw her. she goes, i'm not really sure, but if i still enjoy the sport i think i'm going to be there, and i think that's a "yes." she's unbelievable. >> we will see her, seems like in l.a. carl, see you in paris throughout today and the rest of the week and super excited about all of the coverage you've got coming up for the rest of the week. thank you. >> thanks, guys. >> carl, go to cafe de fleur. we closed the place down. >> true. >> one night sharing -- >> a mandate. >> we had dessert together and -- a croissant ashared with you, until 2:00. until 2:00. finishing each other's

sentences. >> here we are doing the same. got to go. see you in a little bit, carl. thanks. when we come back chicago fed president austin goosebgoosebejoin igoosebejoin -- austan goolsbee. the market sell-off. what he thinks about what's happening, after this. (♪♪) (♪♪) what took you so long? i'm sorry, there was a long line at the thai place. you get the sauce i like?

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welcome back to "squawk box." i want to bring in a very special guest. for that we turn to steve liesman this morning as we continue to follow this market turmoil. >> bring in chicago fed pret austan goolsbee. thanks for joining us this morning. >> good to see you again, steve. >> austan, a perception out there the economy is either in or close to a recession, and the federal reserve is about to embark, perhaps, on an emergency cut or a series of rate cuts that will slash the federal funds rate. i'm wondering if you could comment on where the market is priced and also what your perception is, or your outlook is, for the economy and the funds rate? >> well, look, steve, you know other than i'm not allowed by rules to talk about what happens as the meetings or anybody's opinion but my own. i've been saying to you for a

long time that we've been in a restrictive posture at the fed. if you look at the fed funds rate minus inflation, the real fed funds rate is as high as its been in a long time, and we're at the peak even in this cycle as inflation comes down. and you only want to be that restrictive if you think there's fear of overheating and these data to me do not like like overheating. so i think the fed is forward-looking. the federal reserve act gives us a straightforward job to stabilize prices and maximize employment, and that's what we're going to do. so as you see jobs numbers come in, weaker than expected, but not looking yet like recession, i do think you want to be forward-looking of where the economy is headed for making the decisions, and remember that, say, the payroll jobs number is

plus or minus 100,000 a month. so be a little careful over-concluding about things in a margin of error. >> would you step back, austan, and maybe sort of put it in context? jobs number was probably the worst number we've had. also had a bad ism manufacturing index. are there other indicators out there that suggest to you we've missed the idea this economy is in recession or about to go into one? >> yeah. the manufacturing's a little complicated for the reason we went through a pandemic with a downturn where spending on physical goods went up. very unusually compared to previous business cycles. so you knew that as people shift back what they're spending towards services and away from manufacturing, there would be some weakness in manufacturing, even separate from the business cycle. we've got to calibrate that one and it's not as easy. that said, there are other

cautionary indicators i've been citing for a long time. like the rise in consumer delinquencies. the rise in small business defaults. those things have been trending the other way, and now they're to levels that they have not settled at levels that you think of as -- as being during boom times. on the other side, if you look at domestic purchases, the gdp number was relatively stronger than we expected. >> right. >> the previous one was a little weaker than expected, but in total, the economic growth continues still as a fairly steady level. >> austan, ask this outright. market priced for 150 basis points or more of cuts by, through january. for 15th of september. is the market over its skis here? do you think it's sort of embraced a panic about the economy that you don't have?

>> well, look. you know i never like binding ourselves ahead of time before meetings, even a single meeting, much less five, six meetings from now, because we're going to get a lot of information. it seems like there's a lot going on in the world as well. you've got the bank of japan raising rates when everybody else is cutting rates or thinking be cutting rates, and so you've got moovements in the exchange rate so the international component of this is probably a little more complicated. i think the market's reaction, if you just plot out what their projected fed funds rate will be, and plot it against what the actual fed funds rate does, you can see that it's the market's job to react, and it's the fed's job to act. and one of those moves with a lot more volatility than the other. >> i understand. i think what you're saying there. is there a chance, austan, you

think of an emergency cut between now and september? >> look, like i say, i'm forbidden to talk about what people's opinions are or speak for the committee. you've seen the take. it's a huge table. so everything is always on the take. whether that's increases, cuts, et cetera. but the fed's job is very straightforward. maximize employment, stabilize prices and maintain financial stability. that's what we're going to do. we're forward-looking about it, and so if the conditions collectively start coming in that on the through line there's deterioration on any of those parts, we're going to fix it. that's the chicago model. there's no bad weather. there's only bad clothing. the conditions come in. we're going to respond as appropriate. >> the question is the balance between the two of this dual

mandate. a long time didn't have to think about the jobs piece at all. what is the inflection point you say, okay. now we've got to -- forget about the inflation piece. let's focus on solely on this other piece? or you think it's not that way? >> well, barring a major change, it's not that way that you would ignore the price stability piece, but i'm mentally, i've been saying for some time, we're in a balanced risk posture. which is to say, we could go for a long time just focused on inflation, because inflation was the place where we were falling down, and the job market remained extremely strong. now, you see some weakness in the job market. we have to pay attention to that, and as i say. my view is we're as restrictive in real terms as we've been higher than this entire cycle and highest in many decades, and you only want to be that restrictive more as long as you

have to. if you don't think there's a chance of overheating or it doesn't look like overheating it's not the righttime to be tightening. >> austan, i confirm you have been saying that and saying it pretty regularly. i want to put meat on the bones of that comment. do you think the fed should not be restrictive right now? >> do i not -- say that -- >> the fed should -- >> reduce the restrictiveness? >> should the fed not be restrictive right now? >> i'm not going to bind our hands of what should happen going forward. because we're still going to get more information, but if we are not overheating, we should not be tightening our restrictiveness, in real terms. so if inflation is falling, then us staying at the same rate is tightening. so -- that's my view of how the action should go. >> you don't think the fed should be restrictive at all

right now or a little bit restrictive? where do you think we ought to be right now? >> that sounds like a semantic point, a little bit. i think we should respond to conditions on the broad through line. as i look at the broad through line, inflation is way down and is trending the right way. employment is still at a relatively decent spot. even in the last employment report. you saw the employment to population ratio rising. you saw labor force participation rising. so we still have some strength but it's going the wrong way, and it needs to settle in to normal and full employment. if we blow through normal, then we're in a different situation, and we would -- in my opinion, we would need to react more robustly. >> let me ask it from the other side. do you think there's a possibility the market here is

overdoing the take from the jobs market? there were those who said the unemployment rate rose because people came in the workforce. even i guess one of your colleagues, tom barkin suggested 114,000. what we do in normal times? >> yeah. look, as i said. the jobs number of 114,000 was below the expected, but it's plus or minus 100,000 a month. so it is definitely worth remembering. the fed's job is not to react backward-looking to one month's numbers, and if you look at how the market reacts in its predictions of the fed funds rate, there's a massively more volatility in the market reaction on a day-to-day basis than in what the actual moves are. >> austan, is it possible that it isn't a slow -- like, decline in hiring?

that is actually becomes something worse? i'm thinking technology. i'm thinking wealth effect for what we're seeing in the markets. if this were to get -- i'm not saying it's going to. we've had such a run in the nasdaq and everything else. if it did slow down, could some of the main drivers of all of the employment gains we've seen, couldn't that dry up really quickly, and is that in the calculus for the fed, how it thinks about -- >> it's got to be on the consideration set. i think you're describing kind of a dynamic that in normal business cycles, as i say, unemployment goes up like a rocket and down like a feather, because it's easier to destroy a job match than it is to find somebody, recruit them and build one. we should always be forward-looking, and we should be thinking about what would it look like if the job market deteriorated? what would it look like if the

economy, if we got supply shocks. it was overheating. we're getting international shocks, if you want to call them that, by actions of other central banks. so i think we do need to think about that. we probably also want to consider, was it you guys coming back into the country that ruined us? >> or by not paying up on our bet or -- i knew you were going to get to that. >> joe got back on thursday. >> back on thursday. >> that was -- that was the night it happened! what do you mean? >> exactly. >> i thought the same thing, austan. >> one other thing. the pandemic close at 2300 on the s&p? i mean, we just have come so far, austan. at, like, 5,500. just, you know, in previous times where we do see a little bit of a backing and filling, it just seems like, not saying it's going to happen, but plenty of room where you could make a case

that if there was any type of regression or aversion to the mean -- and then the wealth effect on that. i don't know what that would do to the economy. just wondering, it would be more than a mild recession that we've built up? >> oh. i see. i thought -- i thought you were saying if you thought there wa frothiness in equity markets and some came off, could that generate a recession? >> right. >> that sounds kind of like the original internet bubble popping, that generated a mild recession. >> yeah. >> the housing bubble popping generated a massive recession, but it was more leverage. there had have been other times, of course, as you know, where the stock market had big corrections, and it didn't generate a recession. 1987. back in 2015. you remember, we had the big sell-off starting in china. people were nervous. it didn't turn into that.

so the fed should be forward-looking. we shouldn't just be looking backwards, and it's absolutely on our screen. the law tells us, maximize employment, stabilize prices. that's what we're going to do and we're going to take all the measures, and let's not overreact to one month's number, but if that's a sign of something that's happening longer term, then we should respond to what those forces are. >> austan, while talking, i don't know if it's because you've been talking, the yield curve on the 210 disinverted. now it's positive first time since 2022. i wonder could you factor that into your thinking? a development you think about in terms of having commitment outcomes and what does it reflect, in your opinion? >> look, think about that a little. >> yeah. >> as you know, previous to this period, which is extremely unusual, the inverting of the yield curve is a very strong indicator of recession, but it's

been inverted for two years, and we didn't have recession, and i've mostly written that into the, this was such a weird business cycle, and people have been anticipating that rates -- the differential between the short rates and the long rates and their expectations were kind of driving that in a way that was ahistorical. now, just be careful of what's the cause of what? so if people get scared and the long rates come down and they think the short rates are going to fall, it's going to affect the yield curve in a way that's going to deinvert it, but for the same reason an inverted yield curve didn't have to be an indicator of recession. the uninversion of the yield curve doesn't have to not be an indicator of recession. so that's one piece. i definitely watch it, but -- it's not definitive for me. >> austan, quick. jeremy siegel was trying to

pound the table toll say you know, you need to have an emergency rate cut effectively right now and said if you did, that the market would rip. i said to him, well, isn't it possible if there's an emergency rate cut that the market would actually think the opposite. think, goodness. this is actually a much bigger problem than we know. what is the data you would be needing to look at between now and september to actually make such a decision? >> well, what did he say when you asked that? because that's a good question. >> which question? >> what did the -- the market panicked because there was an emergency rate cut. i saw he said they should cut -- fomc should cut 25, 150, another 150. what was jeremy's answer for, would the market panic, because of the -- >> said it would rip upwards.

>> he doesn't need more data. said already seen it. >> i think the market is part of the data stream. part of what he's saying. i'm not sure that's the case, exactly what i was about to say. i've known jeremy for some time, am a great admirer of his work. he does have a kind of the market centric view that the fed should react to that, and spiritually something, inside, i'm totally the opposite. my thing is the law doesn't say anything about the stock market. it's about the employment and it's about price stability, and let's maintain financial stability as that's going. if the market moves give us an indication that over a long arc we're looking at a deceleration of growth, we should react to that, but i want to caution -- personally -- i don't like moving because the market -- >> doing inflation cal chases

and where fed funds are right now. it wasn't so much he was siayin the market's looking back but way too restrictive, which you probably agree with. >> what i say. we're very restrictive and you'd only want to be restrictive like that if you think the economy's overheating. >>overheating. >> okay. >> austin, thanks for joining us. i think we'll see you in a few weeks. coming up, rbc's cselena croft will join us. oil is doing what you think it would do if there was an imminent slowdown.

yep, talking and join us on the energy markets and helima croft is here. do we need to know anything more than just the jobs number and slowdown worries? i guess the yen, all those things factoring into oil. it's not going to 80 now, is it? >> the thing is we have the

broader macro concerns but we do have specific issues in the market on lackluster asian demand. i think that had already before we had the jobs report or manufacturing data we were concerned about weaker imports into china, weaker refinery rates into china so there had been this anxiety about la lackluster asian demand. >> we did have a lot of like luxury goods not being sold in china so before we head into our jobs number we were worried about one of the most populous nations -- >> right, for the oil market it is the engine of oil demand growth. if you back up to june we already had concerns about our oil market taper tantrum when opec announced a schedule for bringing barrels back onto the market. so now i think the interesting question is with this weaker economic data and existing concerns about asian demand do they have to put on pause their plans to increase output in q4?

i think that will obviously be a n nonstarter if the trend continues. i can't imagine opec would go forward with increasing output into the market. the question is will they go to the opposite way given the conditions we're seeing? >> is that possible? >> i mean, they have said that. i mean, one thing they have learned since 2015 is you don't let a sell-off extend without putting a circuit breaker in. now we've seen them do circuit breakers before. remember the october 2022 meeting that got the white house so upset when he they said we'll have this emergency meeting and come in with a cut. the question is would it be effective now? but i don't think they'll go forward with increasing output into the market. >> and then is a 6 handle in the cards? >> i think we have to see where the story goes. you can't take it off the table. we've talked about the weakness in asia. the rest of the market hasn't been so bad. we have to watch what happens still in the middle east. we have largely faded the story

of the war, but, you know, if we were having this conversation on wednesday, we'd be talking about potentially military action in the middle east so we still have to pay attention but obviously right now everyone is focused on the economic data. >> even if there is something that -- i hope there isn't but if iran does do something you don't expect that to be long-lasting? >> again, what's going to be interesting is that we had that exchange of fire in april between iran and israel, was relatively contained, did not lead to any market disruptions, but the question is now, are we looking at something more coordinated with hezbollah, iran, hamas? like, is this just a repeat of april, or is it something more serious? >> they didn't seem like they were ready to go full bore in april. >> they were not ready to go full bore. they basically told, you know, people in the region what was going to happen. obviously the message conveyed. the question is, is what we're going to see in response now from iran materially different

from april or is it just more of the same? >> okay. helima, thank you. >> tnk y fhaouor having me. >> nobody else said -- no one would have said that, big bird. . good thing i had aflac. (aflac duck) hmmm the cash i got from aflac helped pay for medical expenses, groceries, rent. it really helped close that gap. (whisper) go, go, go! (group) yay! go aflac! go duck! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. find an agent. get a quote at aflac.com. wish we had aflac on our team. you can! while i am a paid actor, and this is not a real company, there is no way to fake how upwork can help your business. upwork is half the cost of our old recruiter and they have top-tier talent and everything from pr to project management because this is how we work now. okay, team! oh, thank you so much i couldn't have done it without you. honestly, i don't do a whole lot here. i'm really just here for the at&t internet,

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i don't have anything really. >> we're down now almost 1300 points on the dow but the nasdaq is the thing to watch right now because you're looking at oil o -- dow off 4 1/2%. >> we could almost double. >> look at bitcoin. you'll look at that now. in the 50,000 range. >> make sure you join us tomorrow when the sun comes up. "squawk on the street" is next. >> good monday morning. i'm david faber with jim cramer, we're live from post 9 at the new york stock exchange. carl quintanilla is in paris at the olympics. what is going to be a significant sell-off when we begin trading 30 minutes from now and as you might expect, of course, that's where we're going to begin the show, that global market sell-off. stocks are set to tumble at the

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