points on the dow but the nasdaq is the thing to watch right now because you're looking at oil o -- dow off 4 1/2%. >> we could almost double. >> look at bitcoin. you'll look at that now. in the 50,000 range. >> make sure you join us tomorrow when the sun comes up. "squawk on the street" is next. >> good monday morning. i'm david faber with jim cramer, we're live from post 9 at the new york stock exchange. carl quintanilla is in paris at the olympics. what is going to be a significant sell-off when we begin trading 30 minutes from now and as you might expect, of course, that's where we're going to begin the show, that global market sell-off. stocks are set to tumble at the open amidst worries about an

economic slowdown, this follows friday's weaker than expected jobs report. the nasdaq, by the way, already is in connection territory heading into today's session. and overnight in asia one reason why we're seeing this global sell-off, nikkei plunged 12%. that was the biggest one-day drop since black monday back in 1987, a day that jim and i both remember then. both working back then so we did go through days like this i don't know how many times not to mention the global financial crisis so always want to put them in perspective. japan was unique in a way, specific to the end carry trade to a significant appreciation in the yen as a result of that rise in interest rates there to try to combat inflation. we'll talk more about the connections there, but give me your take on this morning and what we can expect? >> i think that when you see the dow and nasdaq decline by a percent every hour, lockstep

with japan, i don't think you can therefore say the problem here is the data center slowdown. i don't want to foment problems. there's enough things wrong. i don't need to make up anything. this is off of japan and we do have treasuries in a kind of weird spot where when yields plummet we all think there's something wrong. we got to take a breath here. i mean, the idea that we're in a recession because the fed didn't move a quarter point, the idea that the data center is a black hole and everybody spending on it, that's not reasonable. the idea that you can just go buy it knowing these forces that you can't see might still sell, whether it be buffett selling more apple, who the heck knows or whether it be the japanese coming back tomorrow, you have to deal with that if you're trying to buy something, yet the idea of buying something is not a bad one because there's a lot of stocks that will not deserve to be where the futures take them this morning.

>> i would add in making the round of calls to that group of people i often call on days like today, i'm not hearing any dislocations in credit. that becomes important because we want to make sure, all right, is this spreading in a way that is even more concerning? nothing in terms of credit. liquidity is very high. obviously in a way you've already got financial conditions easing, right? >> sure. >> as a result of what's going on then that question, of course, as to what the fed will do. there are a number of people who said emergency meeting and then i'm curious to get your opinion because there's the division of would an emergency meeting be good or would it scare people, scare certain market participants if it were to happen? not that it will. >> professor seigel, i thought that he was -- i don't want to judge anyone as good as he is but i would say he's too adamant. i think the people who are reacting to the stock market going down are people who are

not in touch with what you and i have seen over the years. this could be more like '97, it could be like '98, it could be south korea. we can react to them. there could be a hedge fund that's on the wrong side of the japanese trade but we can discuss but, remember, you're selling stocks equally and not all of them deserve to go down equally. >> yes. >> i do think intel contributed greatly because intel is remembered as a great company. it's not, okay. that's okay. there's a lot of companies that are not as good as they used to be but the idea that we sit here and we judge nvidia as the reason why things are bad because there's a publication that comes out and says things are late, when i go to go back to my july 9th notes of what the company told me and what the company told me is exactly what they're saying now, so, look -- >> i can create the fact that maybe buffett knows something about tapple that tim cook

doesn't. i'm not going to do that. apple is a free rider and get all the ai they want and don't have to spend anything. that's great. why should they be down as much as -- >> you're mentioning news stories as well we're going to be focused on with this sell-off. one being this idea that blackwell chips are delayed in some way and another obviously that man right there, i mean, it's still the largest position at berkshire but it's not insignificant when warren buffett decides to sell half his apple which has already happened. >> we don't know what is his positioning or company's knowledge of apple -- >> we do know berkshire has $272 billion in cash. >> that's great but, look, anybody who bought apple because buffett bought it, what are they saying? they're saying, how is the quarter? what happened? you got to go in and say that -- you got too look at -- >> he sold it before the quarter. which the market reaction was positive to. now we're coming off amazon not

a great reaction, meta was pretty good. i mean we can go through them all. >> that's the point. we have to. meta was good. >> mixed bag. >> amazon, no one buys their idea that selling on a day when the attempted assassination of trump or that the olympics are holding sales down. no one is buying that. except for me. >> really? >> because i know -- like, don't you -- a very quick. the olympics are amazing. did you watch? >> no, i'm watching the highlights on peacock after. the gold zone. the gold zone. >> the olympics are great. >> they're unbelievable. how many times -- >> carl is in paris. >> the chocolate milk on -- >> i have seen that. katie ledecky is incredible. 1500, that was amazing. noah lyles. let's get back to this.

>> why would prominent people at amazon who might have known for 20 years back me w-- bag me? >> they were manufacturing a lot of satellites for -- >> they did have a bit of a slowdown in sales but had a great speedup that suddenly doesn't matter on web services which is the only thing that mattered two februarys ago. >> it's not as though japanese investors don't own a lot of these stocks and there's been an unwind of great significance in terms of that yen carry trade where you can borrow in yen and then you buy dollars and buy a basket of ai stocks, right? and so when the yen goes up because the rates go up and this thing all unwinds and get margin calls, you sell and you don't just sell there, you sell here too. >> you could get a bounce because it's not us that are causing it. >> no. >> they come back and you keep

selling you go down again. >> you had big stocks and tokyo electron down 18.5%. samsung was down 10%. tsmc -- >> largest holders there. >> they got large again. it's funny that when japan topped out like it did in '89, but we all have to deal with the japanese sell-off and it's causing the like the korean sell-off. remember the tigers, asian tiger sell-off. >> yeah. >> we didn't even realize. people thought they were like asics. and turns out it's not bad but there's a process. right now you'd be buying without knowing what's causing it. it's not nvidia. there's something else. someone, brokers that we don't know so you buy here, you get the bounce, that's great then you have to scalp it as we find out what's really gone wrong then the real bounce but that's been -- that's typically the

process. i don't want to be too clinical. there are a lot of people who are scared. i'm telling you if everything -- it's not real. >>we've seen so many days like this. and often in august it feels as though we -- again for me credit is fine, liquidity is fine then earnings. are earnings fine is the question as we are slowing. there's no doubt about that and we do have a lot of questions about the consumer, certainly coming off a much weaker than expected jobs number on friday. >> but the economy is still creating jobs. we -- if we had a couple strong numbers, people are going to say, i see why powell reluctant to cut. not buying into the 50, 75 emergency basis, wow, are you kidding me? certain things are going well. oil coming down, i mean, maybe oil's price is 65, very anti-inflationary. >> one thing we haven't mentioned which is the possibility that iran is going

to undertake a very significant strike. it is telling everyone in the near term against israel. that can't be helpful -- >> no, it's not but where would oil be without iran saying those things? i argue it would be very low. the banks are interesting. >> why? >> i don't see a huge way of default and things don't turn on a dime. you don't dr. cap-- have capita one saying they're fine then saying they're not fine. jpmorgan, the stock was lower than reported -- >> what about buffett selling bank of america? concerning. >> he's selling consistently, huge position. bank of america was the best large cap. it sells at ten types earnings. you can't let buffett rule your thinking other than the fact that he has the ability to reload and knock stock down. we could have a second leg when people say, nothing wrong with bank of america and buy it at ten times and hope it goes to 11

times and buffett comes back or sellers come back. precarious time from the point of view of buying and not being able to scalp. you have to -- >> that's warren buffett having almost $300 billion in cash is interesting. >> what does that mean for us, that there's this person has that. >> he hasn't done a large deal in a very long time. may be an opportunity. >> x, y, or z. are we supposed to say that's the chance to buy, a, b., c? >> we don't know what's wrong with him. >> wrong? >> maybe they're trying to pull back and reconsider about the way they run their money. we have a transition -- >> warren is 93 years old. >> i just find that if you do what buffett says, then you went down -- remember, buffett didn't touch in the great recession and got clobbered then when it came back up he said you didn't have to do anything. so, like, again, i don't want to

follow anybody. i don't want to follow jeremy seigel who i felt was saying, listen the world is over. i thought goolsbee was calm and cool. he's like a reasonable guy. says, look -- >> he did seem reasonable. we'll play excerpts from goolsbee. >> they're scaring people -- i bought the two-year like last week at 4. >> you take a look. the ten-year below 3.7. there it is. look at that. >> i'm flipping the two-year. >> well, no, we're not inverted. >> i'm just saying all these panic moves, you have to let it -- i mean, here's what we're doing for my club. we're buying four stocks, we're not being big, we probably won't have money in at the end of the day. what we like to do is sell losers. i can't mention because then it restricts us, sell losers to fund winners because the jokers sell winners to fund losers. i don't want to be in the joker

column. >> got it. >> there are a lot of professionals looking for things to buy but they're not squawking because they're afraid they'll look like dopes if it keeps falling so you can't do that. i'm willing to look like a dope and say we're putting some money to work. dope me. i'm like 95 years old already. >> we're going to have a lot of time to discuss this, 17 minutes before the open. carl is at the olympic games in paris. we miss you here, carl, but it looks nicer there. >> that was a great discussion just now about obviously an important -- interesting day. just because you have the olympics doesn't mean you can't have a global sell-off and just because you have a global sell-off doesn't mean the games stop. there are two big things people are talking about, the markets today and the olympics. and on that front it was a really incredible weekend between katie ledecky getting her ninth gold, djokovic getting his first and the golden slam. first man to do that in singles

and the story was noah lyles, the first american man to be titled world's fastest in about 20 years, wins that 100-meter by 0.005 of a second. that is 1/20 the amount of time it takes to blink your eye. the closest, one of the closest olympic races in history. this week he's going to take aim at the 200. that's his best event actually. if he gets that he will be the first u.s. man to win gold for the 100 and the 200 going all the way back to carl lewis in los angeles back in 1984. just incredible. at first he wasn't sure who won. they asked for the photo. o omega getting the pop. faster than they used. an amazing olympic event and will be talking about it for awhile. we'll try to keep you honest on the games and the markets. but i'll tell you what, jim,

it's incredible to wake up here, try to look at the medal count while also reading the note about whether blackwell will impact the note. >> i liked that note. again, i point out the fact that the company tells me nothing changed since july 9th. i got to tell you, we are just transfixed on where you are. i thought the 100 meters -- i watched the 100 meters and went back to peacock and watched it over and over. i did not think we won that. i swear. >> neither did the announcer. >> it was so great. oh, my god. the olympics are so great. i'm sorry, beach volleyball, watching with my daughters, amazing. >> the olympics are incredible. >> i watch in realtime and made sure to watch swimming and ledecky and lyles and that guy in the 10,000, fisher. i mean, just incredible. all the stories, incredible. >> just the greatest. >> and so much more coming for you to see this week.

>> yeah, i definitely thought of you, david, when talking to ledecky who i'm convinced is the most grounded olympian i've ever met. incredible. >> yeah. >> just fantastic. >> there's no -- i mean, she is the greatest female swimmer of all time, one of the greatest olympians. >> it's like a miracle on ice. the country is really down and this is a miracle on rice for me. the miracle on ice broke it. i feel like that now. we're saying, we're not a bunch of losers. holy cow, we're not. we're not a country of horror. we all love ledecky. >> that gets talked about a lot, you guys, among athletes here, that it is something that can unify the country at a time when things are turbulent on multiple fronts. >> yeah. well, one thing is going to be losing today, the nomarket. >> i'm buying ledecky. give me some ledecky. >> we are going to be down

sharply. we're all over the sell-off and we'll be right back. >> david, bitcoin. e types are still calling each other rock stars. you're a rock star. we're all rock stars. oooo look look at my data driven insights, i'm a rock star. great job putting finance and hr on one platform with workday. thank you! guys, can you keep it down. i'm working. you people are (guitar noises). hand over the air guitar. i've got another one. this is our future, ma. godaddy airo. creates a logo, website, even social posts... in minutes! -how? -a.i. (impressed) ay i like it! who wants to come see the future?! get your business online in minutes with godaddy airo

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easily transfer your services in the xfinity app. bring on the good stuff. as you see jobs numbers come in weaker than expected but not looking yet like recession, i do think you want to be forward looking of where the economy is headed for making the decisions, and remember that, say the payroll jobs number is plus or minus 100,000 a month, so be a little careful overconcluding about things in the margin of error. >> that was chicago fed president austan goolsbee giving

his take on the economy last hour on "squawk box." >> i like that not to do over -- it was funny what he said, which is we don't want to o overcomplicate things here. people are very afraid. there's just been a huge amount of margin debt we don't know. what tends to happen is there's something that we haven't seen that's driving things down that can cause a second leg if you scalp. at the same time if you don't take advantage of some of these prices with the nasdaq down so much i think you'll look back and say, you know what, i know the nasdaq was still up for the year but let's find things that aren't up. i mean, there are now stocks that issue here, let me give you an example. still up but micron, look at micron, micron is going to blow away the quarter, no doubt about it because they are selling high bandwidth memory which there is tremendous demand for. sell micron here? >> right. >> if you don't buy the price

you have to ask yourself would you sill the price? would you sell micron at 87, what, hoping you get it back at 82? i can't play that game. i can't. it's just -- viewers at home can't. >> what, you know, we look at the bond market now and every note that's coming out -- >> recession. >> yes, recession is what you're starting to hear about, at least the possibility of said is increasing. there's no doubt. i would share, though, this rule that -- which is every 2/10 rise in the unemployment rate triggers a rule that says you got a much better chance of a recession >> that's overconcluding. >> b of a saying they don't happen, that is, recessions without layoffs and those remain extremely rise and rise in unemployment rate reflects high participation in immigration that boosted the labor supply so they're not a believer. >> that's why i say it's a crisis in confidence. the data is really good and i think the idea, by the way, if the fed had moved on friday a

quarter point this wouldn't happen. that's just wrong. it's really out of japan it starts. i mean, it is possible. japan got big enough that it can have that kind of impact and brought us down. how much things should be down between midnight and 4? i don't know but that was a major move in the nasdaq. >> things that are not necessarily in focus every day, this yen trade was that big or margining to borrow in yen and buy ai baskets of stocks in dollars. >> do you say that walmart, were you shocked when you don't have much money that that should be down big today? >> right. >> no, you have to pick your spots. i don't know whether it's done going down but if i started buying walmart -- >> pick your mad dash. that's what we got coming up about 6 1/2 -- >> snap, crackle, pop candy. >> don't do that as a mad dash. that's off the table. another look at futures.

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>> announcer: "the opening ell" is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives and responsible investing. all right, let's get to a mad dash. opening bell three minutes from now, won't want to miss that to see where stocks begin a significantly down day. speaking of down, intel shares, down sharply on friday on just a slew of bad news, but you want to make that the feature. >> i think that what's happened here they're spending a lot of money on fabs they don't have many customers, part is commitment to the united states but not necessarily what you want when you want to commit to customers. david, i also think, by the way, that there really is -- i want to be a little diplomatic here but there's a sense that the

company is really in much worse straits than we realize. i asked secretary raimondo whether she was concerned, no. some of that is because they have brookfield and apollo. >> just to be clear, they are partners in fabs and provided a significant amount of the capital because obviously intel has been capital constrained and even more so which is why they're cutting the dividend and cutting back on capex because they're trying to get to the day where they'll be up and operating and can reclaim what gelsinger says is their rightful place as a leader. >> i love the attitude but they don't have the horses. >> what do you mean when you say the horses? >> you have to spend a fortune to get these things going. we moved our foundries to taiwan because it's much cheaper. he's going full bore, gelsinger, is the most expensive areas.

i thought his conference call was -- it was, frankly, unconscionable and also -- >> argue to invade taiwan would change everything. >> they need geopolitical. there are some things, like, yes, it would be a safe zone if china -- i don't want to put that out there but i thought he was incoherent on the call and a lot of questions were directed to the cfo after because of his incoherence. i don't think that he realizes how big the problems are and i think, ready? >> yeah. >> i think it's oversaid -- >> i'm sorry. >> i think it's over his head. >> over his head? >> because you have dell and lenovo and hp trying to figure out if they need a second source. you have lisa su so ready to do anything they need. 2009, he was let go by intel because he was doing graphics. who wants graphics? nvidia. so i think there's a little

history here. we should not presume that intel stumbled. we have to presume that intel is flat on its face. >> got you. there's going to be a lot of red on the realtime exchange backat our headquarters. here's the opening bell and the big board. >> celebrating here. well done. >> perfect. >> all right, jim, given what you've said previously and certainly what does not seem to be in any way -- simply a significant sell-off that we're showing you right there, what would you look at most closely to sort of determine that perhaps that hits the level at which you would say, i'm ready to step in? is there a name or two that kind of fits -- >> i'll give you a way to figure it out. i think you have to see -- well, you have to see the vix come

down. that's the obvious one but you want to see the stocks that have been monster good start coming in. i like the fact that pfizer is down, okay. because that's been some sort of flight to safety. i like the fact that the drugs are down, that the foods, you talk about that, are down. that sign that maybe people think things are overdone. the safe havens were insanely positive last week. but, look, i think you buy a little. just buy a little. it's a long day. but i also think that you're reacting to prices that are being set by other countries, not by ours and ours are now being doubled down by fright so you have the countries in japan and -- they're not just japan. other places are geared because of your yen carry trades but you have those sellers, a lot of times hedge funds and m-- you have the china slowdown impacting everything and fear of the mag seven and all of that

combined gives you opportunities. >> it may. let's sort of go through things here as we anticipated, of course. many of the megacap tech names are down sharply, by the way, nothing that our viewers don't already know, we've been dealing with what initially was the significant rotation out of names into the smaller cap stocks, we talked about the itw, had that historic move over a period of a couple of weeks in terms of the itw outperforming the s&p in such a significant way, the likes of which we've rarely, if ever, seen, not to mention the mag seven and that continues in many of those names. we've come through earnings season as we've said kind of a mixed bag. >> right. >> certainly some positives but others that did not assuage the fears, perhaps, of any number of investors including the likes of amazon. and they've all -- meta is now up 28% for the year.

s&p up about 7 1/2% and microsoft, amazon, apple and alphabet, sorry, alphabet still outpaces the performance of the s&p and the nasdaq now, its performance for the year is 5.3%. >> you have only tesla is down from -- this year, the gains, a lot of these stocks have very big gains. give you an example of what is interesting. apple's quarter was really good and, again, they're got the best situation because of ai, the service revenue is really good. the stock was flying. now the stock is being knocked down by a guy who never really knew why he bought it and the fact that he saw a lot of kids at dairy queen eating and -- >> talking about the greatest single investor of all time. i mean, let's -- >> david. >> i'm sorry, buffett is, period. period. >> he still has a giant position. he has a giant position. >> he does but saying you're talking about a guy who saw people doing it at the dairy queen is not being respectful

of -- >> that's true. i don't mean to be disrespectful. there are people who bought it because he bought it and they are selling it. they were not on the call and don't know how good it is. warren buffett is the best ever. >> there are people selling it because we've talked a lot about the ai future and the iphone. you made this very interesting point about them being somewhat of a free ride. not having to spend the same. that said, the software may not be there when the phone is there and does that delay this potential significant upcycle in sales? >> no, it lengthens it. i remember the sales -- you heard we had mike seifert here. >> from t-mobile. >> he won't lose his share. verizon, at&t are flush. they are all going to contribute to apple's bottom line by saying, look, if you open an account with us, we'll give you an apple. that's why i heard someone say isn't apple too expensive. >> it was interesting when he

said we'll be there with the promotions if we have to be but, again, my point is the software may not be there to do all the things you want to do with this phone when it comes to the new ai world. >> that's true. nothing is perfect. >> why would i buy it until it's ready. >> they'll give it to you. i mean, it's like, look, again, they -- nvidia told me blackwell was going to be sampling and they would ship in volume in the second half. information says it slipped. it's not going to be shipping in volume maybe the second half. some are saying therefore it's not going to be ready until '25. i'm not getting that. would i buy nvidia down 12? i think you buy nvidia down 12. >> by the way -- >> if it goes to 86, you buy more. it's not that dangerous to buy -- >> whether they're delayed or not it's not an issue of demand. it's an issue of supply. >> right. >> investors typically don't care as much about supply. >> no, they don't. >> if you tell them there's not demand that's a change in value. >> my sources indicate zuckerberg would take every

single well of the blackwells. the customers are there. i think the amazon conference call discouraged people because they said, look, we have to buy and google said we have to buy. amazon's making some chips but they're not equal to blackwell but nvidia has been too hot. nvidia this, is a huge correction for nvidia, not unlike when their stuff was being used to mine crypto but do i want to toss out nvidia? no, do i want to buy amazon right here, kind of, yeah. david, amazon was at 200. now at 154. let's say i want 100 shares of amazon. then see if it goes down. i'm frying to be dispassionate because the level of fear is out of whack with the facts and, again, i apologize for warren buffett. what i'm saying is warren buffett did not sit down with tim cook and go out or the go in and i think you have to make your own decision. make your own decision and i thought that apple had the best quarter of all these big companies other than mega-and i

don't want to -- i don't want to blow out all these stocks because of japanese selling. japanese belated selling. >> understood. and, listen, again back to berkshire which obviously over time has had incredible performance through difficult markets, as well, that cash position is notable at this point selling not just apple but significant sales of bank of america. that gets me to the banks. which were under pressure on friday. unemployment number on the sudden -- the drop in rate, concern about recession, i guess. conceivably and credit quality, even though it's unclear whether any of that is really coming to the fore and point out also the alternative asset managers, i noted apollo shares at one point -- i don't know where they ended friday but down as much as 10% because of concerns in private credit. is this overdone? perhaps, jim, i don't know. >> i think so. look, i think that you can go by

goldman which has a good balance sheet and the stock is down big. that's kind of attractive. >> there's a concern capital market activity -- who knows? i'm looking at mike's note. >> joey brown market. nobody is perfect. >> economic data given lower rates impacts fixed asset repricing, lower -- credit a topic again and he prefers quality regionals talking mike mayo, longtime analyst at wells fargo. >> jpmorgan, is this going to be the first buy? no but you've got to start. you have to start. and if it turns out to be a great buy, terrific, you can kick it out. you can start a position. you can't just sit here and say, you know what, jpmorgan, something bad happened to jpmorgan in the last four days and i'm going to find out later. there will not be -- it's a good, interesting level and the stock is still up. a lot of stocks are up and

they'll wipe out the gains. that's what they do. >> nasdaq has come off the lows already. >> look, it's not us. david, it's not us. when the market fell, when the nasdaq fell from down 3 1/2 to down 4 1/2 between 415 and quarter of 5, what are you, kidding me. >> there's correlations between the qqq and nikkei. >> did think wipe out all the sellers? we come in tonight and find that the nikkei is down again we'll be down again because we're correlated. you and i were around in '97 and '98. this is what happened. >> '87. >> '87? we don't want to be down 20 plus percent. >> no, more of the japanese reaction. how we -- >> yes. >> remember, they kept buying waste management every day. >> i don't remember that specifically, no. >> itreally ill-advised.

>> there's a look at mondelez. >> because people like -- >> it's a small group of winners there look at the losers. there's nvidia right at the top. >> arm, i'm worried about, because masa son owns -- >> it controls arm. the float is still very small in terms of the percentage that's out there. >> stock at $58. >> we don't know what softbank has been up to in terms of the yen. >> we don't know if they did the trade either. we don't know a lot. >> for what, they might have to sell some arm. >> that's what i'm worried about. nvidia, can i say there will be a consideration that the information story is not right. that there's -- >> the story that says they have to delay the blackwell -- >> right, because, again, if the company tells me that, look, nothing is really changed since august, you could say -- and

from july to august you could say their statement was amorphous or trying to say during a quiet period we're fine. what a great time to hit a company. over the weekend in a really bad market when they're in quiet and can't defend themselves, when they're a pitiful helpless giant. i say, if i want to react to the story in the information i should just do another job. i should just become a full-time watcher of peacock. i don't know. you want to have some -- >> okay. >> some prudence. >> all fair. >> some thought. there should be more thought involved. if you just want to join -- how about the great russell trade? how is that working? turns out you couldn't get out. it was a roach motel trade because the buy-in was all about futures and they wouldn't stop -- that's what i'm told. we'll take you out down 3%. no broker would do that so the russell, what a great trade. fantastic. it was small caps. small cap was good. you have to know what you're doing. that should be a prerequisite.

>> yeah. >> know what you're doing. and, again, i come back to amazon and i say that brian who is a great cfo is not bagging everybody by not saying there's not as much shopping during the olympics and have a lot of smaller stuff they're selling because no one wants to go to cvs and walgreens anymore. they're still going to walmart. >> that's true. >> walmart is doing quite well. >> jim, you ready for me to talk kelp anova up sharply. >> leggo my eggo, partner. >> let's do a little faber report. >> did you notice -- kellanova shouldn't be up. kelp la nova and some may have known about the deal.

>> it's not completed but there were reports that mars is certainly in talks, it would appear, with kelp lanova. kcim which took a state quite a few months ago and my understands it's been challenging management on execution but also trying to potentially get interest out there and it's belief that there was interest from the likes of a mars or a hershey or even a mondoleze or whether it's pringles or pop-tarts, sort of the snacking area and what we saw from the latest quarter which the stock reacted positively, growth internationally would seemingly appeal. they have four board seats coming up. that is obviously not a secret to anybody following it closely but interesting to know that,

that said, well, i've been hearing plenty of rumors, i was not there on the story as was reuters. then "the wall street journal" reporting on mars specifically over the weekend. would there be interest from some of the other potential buyers here, because there isn't a belief there would be an antitrust issue. very much unclear. i certainly do believe that hershey has been at least interested in taking a look. it doesn't mean that that's going to actually go anywhere. it goes to the collection of assets at least in the opinion of the activist investor and a number of others have been undermanaged for some time after the split. remember, kellogg is just the cereal. it's a very small company, tiny. kel kellanova. >> thanks for that.

>> bnp saying we assume the acquisition multiple could be roughly, 5% discount to the average of the current trading multiple of mondelez -- by the way, that was 18 times. >> i hated that deal. so that's why if you get anywhere near that you're talking anywhere in the range of 90 to 105. again, that is those who own the stock and would love to see the deal. average i'm told is about 16 times in territories of these deals. but, again, that gets you to a higher stock price than where we are right now and any number of notes this morning pointing out that mars could do the deal, antitrust would not be an issue and that they have the financial wherewithal and interest in food, as well. remember, they've been big. one of the largest private companies in the country. so we'll keep an eye on this. if the deal does come to fruition would be one of the largest we've seen not just in this particular industry but one of the largest of the year. >> what it does say people are

not concerned about gop-1. saying it does not influence us because of the kellanova snacks -- let's short kellanova, they don't do that. okay, and more about -- i'm covering my bases, i'm not going to let you bring me down. ledecky, the chocolate milk, it was real. >> that's been around for years, the chocolate milk video. she's incredible. >> everyone just shows -- >> her stroke is so -- >> nvidia, there you go. who's more at fault? >> more at fault for what? >> david, we have a big sell-off. >> i know. >> it's the carry trade. >> the carry trade. it's the yen. sara eisen first identified that linkage for our own markets. services pmi was announced moments ago and rick santelli has those numbers for us.

rick. >> yes, david. these are the final reads from s&p global at the top of the hour we'll get ism's equivalent and our midmonth read on headline services for s&p global was 56.0. that gets downgraded to 55.0 which makes it the weakest month after month level since may of this year and if we look at the s&p global composite, the composite move from its mid-month read of 55 to 54.3, weakest since april of this year, and just a quick run around the markets, wild day for sure. two-cent spread briefly moving positive back negative a bit. look at tens versus boons, our yields and european yields was the closest, narrowest on the spread since sep of '23 and should we close at these levels or at the lower yields, we popped up quite a bit. right now 2s are down a dozen basis points.

they were down two and tens, down 17, they were down much more dramatically. should they close here around a two-year low yield close, tens roughly since june of last year but everything is moving quite aggressively. maybe the most important issue is through all this turmoil, just think, tomorrow, wednesday and thursday, we have auctions of three, tens and 30s, it's going to be a wild week in the treasury complex. david, back to you. >> yeah, it's already been a wild week. >> talk about crowd strike? let that go fall low. >> clearly we're not. tell me your thoughts about crowdstrike. >> i think george kurtz has really kind of given you a different narrative from what ed bastian from delta -- i know george and his team went into every single airline, every customer that was heard and said, let us help you. we want to work with you and we'll do everything we can and ed did not take their email or call. everybody else, the top guy did.

so now bastion is saying it's 500 mill and i have not talked to bastion, i'm just saying that what i've learned is that they were intransigent and that let so that crowdstrike couldn't help them. you could say crowdstrike are a bunch of knuckleheads, no. i think it makes it less of a likelihood that delta goes after them for everything and that's one of the reasons i think crowdstrike is down less than other stocks in the sector. >> of course, it got crushed. >> yeah, but it didn't get crushed again because george has indicated that maybe he was more forthcoming and perhaps delta did not avail itself of the remedy and then they hire -- and make a lot of noise, there's $500 million loss and i'm not feeling that good about the case. if i was boise or buffett, i would say the cases that -- >> boise's track record is a lot more mixed than buffett's.

long-term, i don't give him. >> i would say, listen, mr. delta, i think what you have here is a case where you didn't kind of tell us that they tried to help and you didn't take their call. now, ed bastian saying, i'm not taking their call, all that kind of -- you saw the curse words and stuff like that. the stuff, but no, in the end it does hurt their case. >> bitcoin was supposed to be a -- >> not as good value as gold. >> the thought that perhaps john cook -- >> that is not the case. >> well, it just turns out that gold -- on last week -- >> who, what? >> a legal eagle, big oil company in canada, not that dangerous a place to mine, their stock has been a winner and they're adamant that when things go bad, crypto will go bad with it. gold won't.

we've only found about 1% more gold each year. there's just not a lot of gold to be found, and a lot of it is in high cost places. gold is maintaining its value. i think that's great and everyone should have 10% of their assets in gold if they can get it. try getting that out of costco, it's hard. >> i bet it is. >> we bought -- >> down sharply is well off the lows. >> right. >> they'll come back. scalpers. wait until 10:45. they'll sell the stock down. they're not clowns. they make a little money. come in between 10:45 and 11:00 when the european markets close. >> the s&p will cut losses below 3%. nasdaq below 4%. at the very open we were down much more sharply. not to say those aren't significant losses given the performance last week. i mean -- >> that's the futures. take your kellanova story which was a faber report that i interrupted.

maybe we have to rethink the negativity like mun ga lease had a good quarter. nobody carried because of glp-1. glp-1 is like a phantom boxer, doesn't float like a butterfly or sting like a bee. >> phantom boxer. >> yeah. >> then you have -- >> my class day speaker. >> jim, the one name on my screen is j&j. not up much but it is. >> the brothers johnson has always been a safe place to go, even during the period of talc. >> the brothers johnson. that makes me think of woody. >> no. >> makes me think of the new york jets. >> strawberry -- >> okay. >> and then i just get depressed. say again. >> did they check before they got them? >> i don't know. >> hassan, do you like us? >> no. >> haven't mentioned elon musk at all. >> his stock the only one in the mag seven that's down. >> that stock down another 5%. but again, well off the lows the

morning. >> right. >> he's suing openai again. he was and then wasn't and now is. musk and the nonprofits namesake objective were betrayed about i sam altman or i should say his lawyers and accomplices. the deceit are of shakespearean proportions. >> yeah. >> which one? which is -- >> to write these things. >> which of them? you can't say shake pierce. the tragedy, the history. >> people use shakespeare when they have noidea who he is. >> brush up on your shakespeare and the women you will wow. he's suing them again. he's also, of course, because he's musk he's got to talk about the fed rates. he's talking about -- liking posts about buffet and how much cash buffet has and buffet is clearly expecting a correction or otherwise cannot see better

investments in treasury. the fed needs to drop rates. they have been foolish not to have done so already. >> good to have a wide-ranging view. >> is he covering -- >> an issue that elon musk would not -- >> what does he say about -- >> about -- >> i don't know. >> the four by 100 musk knows. >> does he know who's going to win? >> i'm saying who is that and the vice president. we don't know who the vice presidential candidate. >> we're going to find that out. >> tony west surfacing. would make it so you have to rethink how left kamala is. people should do that. tony west. >> we are waiting for the vice presidential decision of vice president harris. >> i know tony. he's what i regard as a business person. there was no business person really that close to biden except for gina raimondo. a lot of business people surrounding harris. if you're in the stock market. if you care about your paycheck,

you go with -- you go with trump. >> that's what you do. >> you do? >> he wants to cut your taxes. >> your taxes. >> my taxes got raised as you know under the last trump administration. >> i don't know if he wants to cut -- >> i'm in a blue state. they want to kill us. >> i try to go to -- put us out of business. >> i can become an italian citizen -- >> getting rid of the salt tax deduction. back to the markets with the s&p down 3.75%, the nasdaq down 4.1%. >> scary. >> bob pisani, will you please, please talk for a little while so i can get some rest. >> let's, everybody, you guys are doing a great job. calm as always. that's what we want to see. 20 to 1 declining to advancing stocks. we are well off the highs. 5119 after the open. that was the low. low print after the open. 5173 right now. as you might think all the

growth stuff is getting hit pretty hard here. most of it, 4 to 5%. this was a lot worse 20 minutes ago. tech, banks are down, consumer discretionary, communication services. this is largely the growth area. the big decliners, of course, are in the technology group. super micro is the lead decliner on the s&p. nvidia, tesla, citigroup there. that's an amazing drop of citigroup. go a long time before you see citi down 6% in a single day. big cap tech same thing. everything was opening down the -- in the 4 to 5% range. off of the lows here with apple, amazon, meta and alphabet still down big as you see. defensive sectors are doing better here. so staples, utilities, health care down 1 to 2%. some of the consumer staple stocks are flat to slightly up a little bit as you can see here. david was talking about mars in talks to buy kellanova might help a little bit. these stocks are faring a lot better. considerable damage to the tech

landscape. i want to show you what some of the big cap tech stars are off their 52-week highs, amazon 22% off, alphabet 17, microsoft 16, apple 14%. semiconductors are worse, of course, led by amd down 44. that is not a typo there. micron 45. intel. nvidia down 33%. i want to comment on the vix. you've been talking about it, guys. we're in -- vix is normally in contango. the front month normally lower than contracts farther out. and this is not working. you should see today what's going on. we are in backward. the vix at 55 right now. the cash contract vix. and the front month contract is at 33 and then 30 and then 30, and then 24 in november. this is called backwardation. is this unusual? it is extremely unusual for the cash to be 55 and the front

month 33. so this can't go on for very long. normally this is usually associated at least with short-term bottoms in the market. doesn't mean it's going to happen today or anything like that. this is unusual to have the cash at 55 and the front month at 33 and then 30 here. this is known as a backwardation. as for where we're going now, what's happening right now, remember something, right now we are in a garden variety correction. we are 10% decline from the recent highs would take us to 5100. we're right on the edge of a garden variety correction. remember, we are still up 8% for the year. another 1% decline in the s&p today. that would be rather unusual. i think we haven't seen three consecutive declines of 1% or more since 2022. i think the problem, twice, we don't really know where the economy is going. you guys know there is not necessarily a relationship between the gdp and between stock prices. but generally, normal gdp growth 2% or so, typically you get 6 to

10% earnings growth. that's a good rule of thumb. tell me where the gdp is going to go. that's why the market is confused here. we don't know. 2%, six months from now, and you just have a modest compression of the multiple from 19 down to 18 or 17, and earnings don't go down much you could be not far from the bottom here. but, if you start playing with things, say instead of 15% earnings growth in 2025, you go to 5% earnings growth and 19 multiple you go to a 15 multiple which is closer to what people consider recessionary levels, 13 to 15, you could be easily at 3800. i drew this out in a trader talk this morning. trader talk.cnbc.com. back to you. >> bob, thank you. and, of course, bob will be standing by since we always need him. bob bob pisani. yeah. >> this great report and the vibs can't last. i want to point out warren buffet in may did say this is

not going to make people feel good. we own apple, a better business and we'll own unless something extraordinary happens, apple and coca-cola. it is unusual he did in may say he was going to hold on to it -- >> and sold a lot of stock. still a larger position at berkshire. >> he did say he doesn't touch american express and coca-cola. >> no. >> i told you i thought apple had a great quarter and warner brothers is not doing a day to day apple, not playing quarter to quarter. >> buffet is, as he admits, 94 years old. >> right. >> slowing down. >> well, yeah. i think he is. >> it happens. >> by the way, you have this bounce. now you have to wait. the bounce just occurred. wait to see if the sellers come back. >> want to tell people what you have on "mad money" tonight? >> i haven't thought about it. >> you know what, go think about it. well, as a matter of fact -- >> devin stockfish. stephen yalof, this is what you

buy. a company that has a lot of yield. tanger, the factory outlets not going to be busy. that's a good thing to buy. buy a reit. what's the matter with reit? good price. >> busy day ahead. >> yeah. >> you're not going to rest. >> no. >> go freshen up. >> i want to leave you with tyson foods. >> it's not clear that the air is going to be -- >> no. >> i know -- wish them the best of luck. >> over the weekend -- >> i wish john the best. >> from jim to rick, we have ism services out moments ago. >> yes. tell you what, look at the markets reversing. equities moving a bit higher, interest rates moving higher here's why. ism services all the data here is better than anticipated. headline number expected to be around 51. last month it was under 50. moved back up to 51.4. 51.4, so that reverses the sub-50 read, and if you look at

may, 53.8. at least we're snugging back up over the expansion. if we look at prices paid, well, it's higher than expected but in this instance it's not really a good thing. 57.0 expecting 55. rearview mirror, 56.3. 57 is the hottest since may when it was 58.1. if we look at the service sz side, this is really interesting. we have five sub-50s in a row. this breaks that. 51.1. 46.1 in the rearview mirror and 46.4 expected. so definitely a surprise here on the employment side. 51.1. is the best level, boy, going all the way back to september of last year basically a year and finally on the new orders front, real jump here. from 47.3 to 52.4. we're expecting a sub-50 number. 52.4 is the best since march when it was 54.4.

even though the comps aren't going back super far other than 1, what we really have garner from this is better than anticipated and unlike much of these service sector data we've seen, this is more on the positive side. it could have a lasting effect. right now we're at 377 on a 10-year. that's very close to unchanged. at its worst level it was down 13. 2s at their worst level were down 24 basis points. right now, they're getting very, very close to unchanged. only about down 3 basis points. this is a huge turnaround in interest rates to the upside. david, back to you. >> all right. rick, very important to note, of course. good monday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm david faber with melissa lee and we are live from post nine of the new york stock exchange alongside our carl quintanilla who is live from paris this hour with the latest from the olympics. let's talk markets. you heard rick discuss that move back up in yields.

we were in the 3.6 range on the 10-year and now 3.77 and that, along with, perhaps, other things, has had a positive impact on what was a significant selloff, continues to be, but well, well off the lows of the morning with the s&p now down 2.5% and the nasdaq up 3.2%. >> we are 30 minutes into the trading session. three movers we're watching today. some of the top names in tech leaked the market lower as last week's selloff continues, shares of apple sliding further after berkshire hathaway cut its stake in the company by half. nvidia shares down double digits. the report from the information that it's upcoming ai chips will be delayed by three months or more tied to design flaws. tesla down about 5% as investors are worried about global growth. elon musk saying over the weekend he believes the company will generate sales of more than $100 billion. that would be ahead of street expectations. much more on these names and the broader selloff throughout this

hour. >> key part of this morning's selloff, it has to do with weakness overseas. japan's nikkei suffered its worst day since 1987's black monday. a lot of that having to do with what we call the yen carry trade. we've talked in the last couple weeks about the move up in the yen as a result of the move up in interest rates. and perhaps we yunderestimated how much money was at stake here. dominic chu you've been tracking this action and take it from there. >> the overnight hours in asia saw the chaps to react, the first time zones to react to the jobs related selloff. that epicenter is the nikkei in japan in tokyo, the benchmark 225 dropping by you can see there over 12% by the time the market closed. again, the worst day for the japanese market going all the way as david mentioned to that black monday timeframe in '87. it ended up being the worst one-day point drop in nikkei history down 4,451 and washed

away all the gains the nikkei has seen so far this year to date period. now a big focal point for traders in asia and here in the u.s. has been to david's point what's going on with the currency. the yen has been on a weakening trend as you can see most of the year going up for the value of the u.s. dollar which means, again, quoted directly we're looking at how much the yen versus the dollar could buy. so the higher the number the stronger the dollar and the weaker the yen. as you can see, it's been a regime of stronger dollars and weaker yen when the market became more risk averse in the last couple weeks and months at this point and strengthening the yen. people sell yen as a way to finance transactions in order to buy certain assets. they have to close them back out in terms of trades so this move in the yen and moves by the bank of japan to intervene in markets earlier this year to prop up the

value of the currency have led to the big drop in the value of the dollar and strength in the yen. for the ripple effects being felt all over the region as part of that global stock market selloff. if you take a look at some of the hardest hit asian indices, markets in south korea the kospi down 9%. they triggered trading pauses to stem downside volatility in south korea. the kospi index lower by 9%. weakness in computer chip stocks propel the taiwan weighted index by 8%. 8.5%. en and then the singapore straights time index falling by had%. if you want to believe the relative outperformer was the shanghai composite in china which fell by 1.5%. melissa, overall, it has been at least for today, that weakness in japan and the nikkei that's been a huge story drik some of the downside sentiment, not just here in the u.s. but around the world. >> and many would say, dom, the unwind of the kerry trade is one of the major forces behind the

market selloff wae've seen. has that de-leveraging been complete? are we near the end of that sort of de-leveraging process? if the anticipate is no, then it's going to be continued risk off scenario here as we see the yen reverse, basically reverse the course it's been on for the year. >> sure. to your point about the interconnectedness of those markets and themes, right, one of the propellers of that nikkei trade could arguably have been -- and maybe even less arguably -- almost as a matter of fact, the weakening of the yen when it comes to companies in japan that make most of their money exporting stuff to the rest of the world, that weaker currency actually helps propel the value and the profits for some of those japanese companies. you can say the nikkei 225 has been propelled in many ways by the strength of the dollar and the weakness of the yen. and all of a sudden when you have this buying back of the yen strengthening there, that

incrementally hurts the profits of those companies as well. it speaks to the notion it's not just a general risk aversion trade but many of the technical currency dynamics are part of that bigger picture story as well. >> thanks. dom chu. to the fed, and its path for rate cuts following friday's weaker than expected jobs report. steve liesman caught up with austan goolsbee and joins us with more. mr. goolsbee had the opportunity this morning, steve, to sort of knock a bit of volatility out of this market, and it didn't quite work. >> interesting you say that, melissa. the first thing i'm going to tell you, he did not, austan goolsbee, on squawk this morning wouldn't take anything off the table. here's what he said when i asked about the possibility of an emergency rate cut which would come become meetings. >> the fed's job is very straightforward. maximize employment, stabilize prices and maintain financial stability. that's what we're going to do.

we're forward looking about it. and so if the conditions collectively start coming in on the through line, there's deterioration on any of those parts, we're going to fix it. >> didn't say there would be or wouldn't be one. markets trading like a one in three chance of an intermeeting cut but priced in definitively an aggressive path for the federal reserve in the months ahead. take a look. 150 basis points are priced in through january. 50 in september, priced in. 50 november priced in. two more 25s in december and january and goes further than that, but you have to cut it off some place. total of 150 basis points over the next four meetings. goolsbee didn't comment directly on those numbers but did say, markets could have made up its mind faster about a recession and what the fed is going to do than the fed has. he noted the jobs report can be revised substantially and payroll growth did not look to him recessionary. >> if you look at how the market reacts in its predictions of the

fed funds rate, there's a massively more volatility in the market reaction on a day-to-day basis than in what the actual moves are. >> worth remembering last week most forecasters looking for 2% growth this quarter and this year. the jobs report was weak and there could be weakness ahead but up until the jobs report other data reported to trend growth not a recession and that ism, it's not the strongest ism services we've seen, but it's not the low 50 and seemed to be quite a bit stronger, did not look recessionary to me. >> steve, yeah. but it had an impact as you point out as well on yields which seemed to have sort of given us a little bit of a pause in the selling. well off our lows in the equity markets. the talk about an emergency meeting and rate cut. i'm curious to get your opinion, first of all, i'm sure -- i don't know how you feel about the possibility of it, though i could guess, but if it were to

happen just to say, would that be seen positively or negatively by the market? >> in the absence of any further data it would be seen negatively. and i think that's an important qualification, david. look, the market sees pretty much what the fed sees. they don't come to the same conclusion, but they see pretty much the same data. i do not see the data that would justify, for me, the federal reserve meeting on an intermeeting basis and reducing rates. you have the jobs report as goolsbee said, there's a lot of, you know, trouble with that jobs report on a month-to-month basis. it would not be unusual to have one outlier that would be weaker than otherwise would have been. the unemployment rate had other factors in it. i think we have a full screen of the stuff they might want to be looking at in the next couple weeks. you've got -- watch your jobless claims on thursday. if they start to blow out that's something to watch. retail sales on the 15th. the jolts report coming up on

the 4th. those are things the fed will look at and say hey, are we going into a recession faster or are we just tighter than we ought to be? that was goolsbee's take this morning, david. tighter than we ought to be and we ought to fix it. >> steeb, are you surprised at the degree to which economists and wall street have changed their position on rate cuts as well as the probability of recession? it's one thing for the market to say the markets are in a hair trigger and we're going to price them quickly. david's enjoying his coffee. additional rate cuts this year. it's another for a wall street economist to say i'm going to increase my odds of recession to 25% as opposed to 15% which goolsbee did. >> you're reading my mind because i don't mind -- it's easy for me to see the futures markets making those changes. trading like crazy and not thinking of their macro call when making a trade necessarily, although there's some in there. it's the economist changing,

citi went to a 50 right away in september, i think jpmorgan also went right away to a 50 for september. i thought that was a little bit of what's the right word for that, a little -- >> hair trigger. >> whatever you want to call it. good word there. i've never seen a change about in the futures market like this or among economists because part of the game of forecasting is thinking about these ways, thinking about the way the fed thinks about them and be sure that they're not thinking about them as volatilitily as the market is thinking about them. for sure that was one of the big surprises to me and i think there's reason at some point to take a deep breath and say okay, i was thinking 2% before. is this one report plus the ism manufacturing being negative is that a reason for me to say it's going to be zero or negative. i'm not sure that's right, david. >> steeb, thank you. >> pleasure. >> did want to, melissa, mention

something that's come up on my twitter feed and via text schwab has, schwab's down. nchlt not surprising. >> not a great day to be down. >> no. >> a lot of volume as you might expect, a lot of demand. and you can see what they're saying. due to technical issues some clients they say may have difficulty logging in to schwab platforms. we're hearing that any number of people are having a lot of difficulty. there may be other platforms. we haven't confirmed, hearing other names as well that are down. certainly got to be frustrating to those who want to try to get some trades done. >> manage their positions. hedge their risks. just in terms of volume, it's extraordinary we're about 45 minutes into the session, 64% of the average daily volume traded in the first 45 minutes of trading. that gives you an idea of the volume challenges that these platforms will be facing today as so many people active on a summer day. >> yeah. and it's august.

although we get days like this in august. >> it's true. >> feels that way to me typically i'm on vacation. sadly not today. happy to be here with you. >> same here. >> all right. let's get to our next guest as well. we're happy to have him. believe it or not this is normal. classic overreaction to macro data and shouldn't be surprised. chief investment strategist brian belski, s&p target 5600. brian t why, you know, you are -- our viewers know you've been bullish typically, often right, why do you continue to feel that way? >> thanks so much for having us. a microcosm to what's going on in society. we want to react first. it's kind of fire aim ready. i think about the talking heads when they say same as it ever was. i have the good fortune of doing this business for a long time, my 35th year, and i remember august of 1990, when iraq

invaded evacuate and my boss tett thought we were going into a recession and six months later the market was rallying again. the '90s david when i was on your network for the first time in '97, '98, '99, wa2000, 2001, five straight years the market was down. this is pretty normal and part of a broader trend we've talked about now for several months, that the markets in jen really heading into normalization. now we said nine months ago, in our report, for 2024, that the average correction during the second year of a bull market is 9.4%. we've been waiting for this. so we do not like it when markets go down. we do not like it when people lose money. but this is normal. i think a lot of investors have been reared through this notion of stocks only go up if interest rates two down and we're transitioning again to this notion that bad news is bad

news. and over the weekend this is pretty classic. you have a terrible friday, fears exacerbating over the weekend, you have a terrible asian market and then you have this rebound here from the lows already here today monday. so we're buyers. we're longer term investors -- >> >> brian, what are you buyers of? previous to this recent downturn we saw a significant rotation out of the mega cap names, for example, that had been a key store of significant out performance for some period of time. so what would you advise people to buy? >> from a positioning standpoint, our theme has been own a little bit of everything this year. we've been provided a gift of the oversold nature for the last ten years of small mid cap stocks. they're the best position assets for the next ten years.

value stocks again. own some of what we like to call the consumer staples tech. you've been provided a gift here the last couple days in terms of your amazon, apple, google, microsoft. apple you positively have to have exposure to these names. these games got too cocky on the upside with respect to their valuations and now humbled. everybody needs a little humility in their lives. we believe as short-term and reactionary to be chasing consumer staples and utilities now because, especially consumer staples, these are very, very expensive names. if you do a relative peg ratio compared to technology, they're not earning on an absolute basis of what technology is. let's take a step back and christmas comes early, and christmas is today, and we should be positioning accordingly for the next three to five years, which benefit u.s. and north american names and you've got a great opportunity right now. >> are you pounding the table,

brian if is this the equivalent of belski pounding the table because this is such an amazing opportunity with the backdrop of your price target? >> well, even this morning, melissa, thank you so much, great to hear your voice, even this morning, this -- i would call it hullabaloo with respect we're going to have an emergency cut, we are not in a recession, we do not have a declining economy, the more people you have on today, economists especially, bears, that say we're in a recession, the more bullish i get. that's emotional an they've missed the bull move so now they're going to jump on the bear move. that's not investing. belski is pouning the table because i'm a long-term investor. i think stocks are at new highs by year end and all about quality and u.s. markets and everything goes up together, small and mid cap, revert a recession this time around and have a normal recession that will be more of a consumer recession a year or two away,

but when people stop talking about the recession. the fed has done a great job. we're going to hear more in wyoming this month in terms of what powell is saying. our great economics department has said 25, 25, 25, by year end. and i think the markets will react to that. >> is that what powers us, then, to your idea that we're going to hit new highs by the end of the year oranother quarter of earnings that looks good if what is it? well, okay, if you go back to 1996, the market was volatile in 1996 tech earnings came in volatile. we've forgotten about that. all we think is it can stocks go up. the earnings number, david, and the s&p 500 remains very strong and actually continues to be revised higher. revisions have been positive. it's going to be an earnings fundamentally driven market and now you've been given a gift in terms of the pullback in valuation, so, yeah, i think this is a great buying opportunity from a longer term perspective and a marketplace especially north american

equities that's going to pace market performance for the years to come. >> brian, i'm going to keep the tape. i'm going to keep this tape. we'll revisit it towards the end of the year. >> please do. thank you. >> brian, always a pleasure. thank you. let's turn to big cap technology. apple shares continuing to slide following warren buffet and berkshire hathaway slashing half. tom raised his price target on apple to 203 from 195. keeps a hold rating on the name. great to have you with us. >> thank you for having me, melissa. >> what do you make of -- i mean some people say it's just risk management and may very well be, but buffet has sold well, and he sold according to the filing during the big run up in apple shares. and he also was selling bank of america, which you don't cover, but altogether selling pretty well. how do you take this sort of signal if it is? >> yeah. i think it's a signal. if you look at shares of apple trading at about a 30 times

multiplon out year from a p/e standpoint and what does success look like on an ai upgrade cycle. >> success looks mid single to high single digit eps growth looking at a ratio of three to six times. i think the stock is ahead of itself. there's a huge opportunity here for an upgrade cycle for ai. we think it will be half as big as the 5g upgrade cycle. for example, they're going to have to navigate regulatory challenges in china which is about 19% of sales and europe about 25% of sales. and we already know they're going to do a staggered launch to the extent they're going to have new hardware or wait for the new software for the full impact of apple intelligence. so warren buffet's moves make sense right now. >> in terms of where the stock price is 209 or so, do you think that it's pricing in that sort of degraded upgrade cycle or lowered expectations for an ai charged upgrade cycle? you mentioned you're pricing in about half of what wall street is pricing in. in china it's not just

regulatory issues they don't have an ai offering in china and they will not unless they partner. it's not just a regulatory issue they have to navigate. it's an ai offering they have to figure out. >> they may never have a true apple intelligence in china. they may run into the same issues that meta and google have run into in china. so i do think that the market still is ahead of itself. if i'm projecting the 50%, i feel like the market is projecting a full 5g type cycle and that may not happen. >> at the same time, tom, relative to other big cap tech stocks the mag seven, is apple in your view the most defensive? i mean it may be the cash cycle? it may just be, you know, the services revenues. i don't know. that's the way it's treated at least in this pullback. >> yeah. from a balance sheet standpoint it clearly is the most defensive. apple has the ability to generate $100 billion in free cash flow to continue to buy back shares irregardless of what warren is doing, and yeah, they're easily the most

defensive name in the mag seven. >> you mentioned the multiple. i mean does that give you pause at this point? >> yes. so when you look at apple, they came off five consecutive quarters of declining revenue growth. if you unpack their guidance for the september quarter, they're projecting iphone revenue growth for the first time in a while and the market is still value it at high 20s, low 30s p/e and i think that does give me pause here. >> tom, great to speak with you. thank you. tom for te. >> thank you. all right. let's keep an eye on oil prices. they've been dropping alongside stocks this morning adding to a double digit fall just over the last month. brian sullivan is here to break down the action. we're also still waiting so to speak for iran's response and potential attack on israel. one would expect in some ways that would be having an effect

on oil prices, different than the one we're seeing in the marketplace. >> yes, and no, david. i agree it's keeping a bid under the market. the kospi in korea being down 7%, japan worse day since this, tech stocks, whatever. oil is holding up reasonably well. down a little bit,down about 12% in a month, but down about 1% on a day like today and, david, you're an optimistic guy, had belski, we'll bounce from optimistic brian to optimistic brian. if there is a recession nobody is telling american drivers. according to gas buddy, we are seeing the highest gasoline use in america this year. gasoline demand is not only up week over week, it's up month over month and a new high for 2024. so if you're in the we're soon to go into recession camp, i'm

not sure high gasoline demand would necessarily, david, be up there on my recessionary signals bingo card unless you think people are driving because they can't afford to fly. we know the airports are also pretty crowded or at least they were, david. >> so where do we go from here, i guess, brian? what are you hearing? what are your thoughts when it comes to the people you spoke too about the movements in this market? >> i was going to ask you the same thing because you're talking to many of the same people, david. does opec react? you guys were talking about this intra-fed meeting potential rate cut possibility. could there be an intra-opec meeting rate cut possibility? the next time they are scheduled to meet virtually, is the beginning of the october. the next, quote, unquote, doing air quiotes, big meeting the in-person meeting december 1st and 2nd in vienna. if there was a move or policy

shift we could see that. could opec, listen, they can do what they want. they can -- just like the federal reserve, they can make a change any time they want, and if they start to see telling signals that maybe demand is starting to tumble globally in china, wherever it might be, here in the u.s., europe, no signs yet, but if they do they could make that move. remember, if you do the opec math they're cutting 5.8 million barrels a day roughly. opec cuts, voluntary additional cuts from saudi arabia. all this, of course, as we talk about, you've talked about, david, that the u.s. oil production is at 13.3. i think the thing to keep on, u.s. rig counts, used to talk about them, we don't. if they start to tumble that might tell you that american oil complex is anticipating a potential slowdown and i know just the person who has some time now to look at those rig counts. >> you can count every rig, brian. in terms of the levels on brent

to watch that might trigger some sort of meeting move at the next meeting what would that be? we're at 76. looks like back in december we were 74ish or so. i'm wondering if there are significant levels thank you think opec might be looking here to make some sort of change? >> this is, melissa, you and your stats and facts, you bring in actual data to the party. >> just reading a chart, brian. looking at the chart. and the chart is not horrible. it's not as good as it was if you're an oil long back in april at 88 bucks but your point is well taken. we are at 76. we are not at 46. we are not at 56. we are not at negative six like a couple years ago. brent crude, you know, and i'll give opec a little bit of a compliment here, even though a lot of people have strong opinions. the oil market has been fairly steady in price. yeah, we swing five to ten

dollars a barrel but for the last couple years, the reason we haven't been screaming about opec or everything has been whatever, because it's been kind of a quieter time. the management of that price level has been -- and then listen, you guys both talk to ceos of oil companies and companies that use a lot of them. they'll all tell you, they have lower prices than higher prices but they would rather have stable prices than even slightly lower price. if prices are fluctuating $20, $30 a barrel as a cfo it's hard to plan your cost basis for anything on that. so melissa, your point is well taken. prices lower, but not low enough yet for some major change in policy best guess, but my initials are b.s., so you never know. >> noted. brian, always good to see you. thank you. brian sullivan. >> thanks. >> check on the markets here. stocks continuing their selloff

this morning but off the lows of this morning. the dow down 2.8%. s&p down 3.4 and the nasdaq down by 4%. bob pisani is here with us at post nine for more on what we are watching. >> off the lows. 5119 at the open. the pop on 10:00 on the ism services. the problem we don't know where the economy is going. there's not necessarily a relationship between gdp and earnings growth but generally, 2% gdp, 6 to 10% growth that's a rule of thumb to use and we don't know where that gdp number is right now. there's high expectations folks for earnings and the multiple is high right now. take a look at this here. this is a 2025 estimates for the s&p 500. we're expecting earnings gains much 15%. is that a lot? that's a high expectation. a lot of it in tech, of course. generally work on 6 to 10% a normal year. this is very much at risk right now. that is not a recessionary

earnings increase at all we're seeing. the other problem the evaluations, the multiple, the p/e ratio here. we are now looking at 19 times forward estimates on the s&p 500. that is not only -- that is an expansionary multiple not a recessionary multiple. here's what everybody is doing, playing with how the earnings growth is going to be and the earnings multiple 2%, we're in better shape. zero or negative we're in worse shape. 15% earnings growth the p/e 19, that's how you get the s&p 5300 where we were on friday. let's change this a little. let's lower the growth instead of 15% do 10% at the same multiple 19 p/e, the economy in good shape, the soft landing. the s&p 59. that's not far where we are now. other numbers, lower the growth and lower the multiple instead of 19 let's go to 17. so 10% earnings growth, 7% p/e, the s&p at 4554. let's be bearish. let's say we're only going to

get 5% earnings growth optimistic assuming tech is going to be good. 15 multiple. 13 to 15 is a recessionary multiple. that's normal numbers for a recession. there you go. s&p 3835. and let's remember, here's the vix, by the way, see how strange it is to see it at 43. melissa, you're an expert on this, that is an unusual situation and associated with short-term market bottoms. >> right. >> all i want to say is, remember 2022, remember october, you were all over this, we were all convinced there was going to be a recession. the multiple went to 15 to 16 and collapsed because everyone assumed that's where we have to go because we're in a recession. they were all wrong. at that time the numbers were wrong and all i'm saying is people seem to be talking to themselves into some idea of a recession here. two years ago we were doing this as well and it was wrong then, they crushed the multiple, now they're trying to crush the multiple again and may be wrong again. >> i don't want to be a defender of p/es here, if we're talking

about an economy changed by ai which we talk about every day, the p/e should inherently be higher. >> yes. and there is an argument to be made that p/e multiples should be higher long term. jeremy siegel making this argument for years. this is not your grandfather's p/e multiple, the same as 20 years ago, more efficiencies in operating has improved overall margins and earnings. but that's a philosophical thing at this point. i don't think the laws of gravity have been repealed. recessionary multiple is way below the current multiple under any circumstances. you can argue we shouldn't be 13, we should be 15 or whatever it could be. i don't think the laws of gravity have been repealed. multiples matter, earnings estimates matter and maybe historically higher than they were 20 years ago. we are in an optimistic scenario right now for the market and what people are concerned about. maybe the numbers are wrong. >> near term, market wise, what are you focused on something you think would be a tell?

>> the important thing is, i still watch this backwardation in the vix here. we were up this morning 55 on the vix and 33 on the front month contract august and goes down. normally going into the election the numbers were way higher. the thing collapsed all of a sud. to me that is so extraordinary. look at this. it was 55. the cash was around 55. that is so extraordinary extremes the difference in that, that in the few times i've seen something that extreme usually things change within a few days. that's the -- just short-term that's what i would look for. >> your take on the question of the day how would the markets react with an intermeeting cut? >> a rally. >> that's what i think. i think so too. >> interesting. very divided opinion. asking that this morning when i was talking to people on the phone some say terrible sign and others fine. >> the fed is acknowledging where we should be and it's getting -- >> some people say but on what

day and then what do they see we don't know and everybody panics. >> what are we seeing -- i mean the markets are seeing something. >> something we don't know. >> maybe they're acknowledging that the markets are right. >> i still think that, look, 114,000 jobs, 4.3% unemployment, that isn't close to recessionary numbers. not even remotely close. >> hurricane effects too. >> some situation that does not exist yet and we did this in 2022, market was down 18% and they were all wrong in 2022. >> it was a lot of economists that thought we were headed into a recession. >> makes you humble about prognostication. >> terrible business. glad we don't have to do that. >> bob, thank you. bob pisani. we're going to take a quick break here as the markets continue in selloff mode, although off the worst levels of the morning. the dow down 2.5%. the s&p down by more than 3. back in three.

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm bertha coombs with your cnbc news update. iran says it is not looking to escalate tensions in the middle east, but warned that it will punish israel following the killing of a hamas political leader in tehran last week. iranian officials said today retaliation would be necessary to deter israel for future killing. israel has not claimed responsibility for the assassination. the prime minister of bangladesh resigned and left the country one day after nearly 100 killed in clashes during protests demanding she step down. the country's army chief says bangladesh will form an interim government. at least 300 people have been killed in bangladesh in recent weeks as part of mass movements against the prime minister's long-term rule calling on her -- calling her a tyrant.

and hurricane debby made landfall today in florida's big bend region on the gulf coast, as a category 1 storm. the hurricane is forecast to slowly move north and dump heavy rain on florida, georgia and the carolinas through friday and cause potential catastrophic flooding. it's also expected to bring storm surges along the coast of up to 10 feet. some wicked weather this summer. >> we have. thank you. bertha coombs. let's give you a look at the broader markets amidst the selloff. we pointed out any number of times in the last half hour we're off the lows. that said turn on the tv we're down. it's not a good day. also continue to get reports of any number of retail trading sites that are partially off line or at least having some difficulty with certain customers connecting to, which is certainly frustrate something people out there.

we're keeping an eye on bonds because the two-year 10-year yield curve spread turned positive for the first time since july 2022. yields, obviously, bouncing a bit as well. we got the ism services number. our next guest says the fed should have begun cutting rates months ago and the fed will stick to a 25 basis points by september but they should be more aggressive and cut by 50 basis points. chief economist mark zandi joins us. a lot more coming to your camp the fed has been late, at least when it comes to rate cuts. put we're going to be ready for september, right? they're not doing anything between now and then, are they? >> i don't think so, david. generally the fed keeps intermeeting rate cuts to crises when there's dislocations in markets, when trading breaks down, when, you know, banks stop lending, so i don't think we're anywhere close to that, and i think it would smack of panic desperation. i'm not sure what kind of

response they would get. i would -- at least at this point i mean a lot still to be written here but at this point the script doesn't say cut intermeeting. when they get to september, you know, it does feel like they should be cutting much more aggressively. the other thing they could do and should do is signaling through speeches and price interviews and everything else that they are ready to cut and they're going to cut and do whatever is necessary to make sure the economy stays out of recession. but intermeeting cut they will save that if something goes off the rails. >> tell people again why you believe 50 basis points is more appropriate and why you have been calling for rate cuts previously? >> well, they hit their mandate. inflation is back to target appropriately measured and even by their measure, we're back to target. and you can even argue with that 4.3% unemployment rate on friday, my estimate of full employment is something in the high 3s.

the trend lines suggest unemployment iss going to continue to rise. they've hit their mandate. ask yourself why if that's the case 5.5% funds rate target. a lot of reasonable debate as to what the so-called equilibrium rate, consistent with policy neither supporting or restraining growth, it's higher than historically for a bunch of reasons, but not 5.5% or anywhere close so they got to get the rate down to something closer to equilibrium, 50 basis points cut in september, another cut maybe at the december -- november-december meetings. they got to get it down to 4% quickly. >> do you think that odds of recession, mark, have gone up given friday's jobs report and given your expectation that they will only cut 25 in september? >> indeed. i said 25 on friday before today's market action. so, you know, maybe that, if we see another, you know, down 5, 10% on the market, start showing

up in consumer spending which it very well may because, you know, high income consumers are driving the train and focused on their stock portfolio, so, you know, a lot -- the conditions could change rapidly and they would go 50 basis points. but, you know, i think, you know, everything points to much more aggressive rate hike. i don't think rate cut -- i don't think recession. the economy is resilient and, you know, the best measure of recession far and away is simply jobs, employment, payroll employment, and, you know, thursday we were at 114 pay. that's being affected by technical factors, hurricane, yawn lying job growth going 50k, 150,000 per month, nowhere near recession. i don't think that's likely. but having said that, they have to get moving and rates down to something consistent with their long run equilibrium. >> and what about employment? to the extent that the job market is fragile, which i think

you believe is the case, if we don't get an aggressive cycle of rate cuts, does that come -- become more the case? >> absolutely. i think that's the clear message here. the job market -- for months going back a year, the job market has been looking increasingly fragile. under the hood. if you take a look at under the hood. hiring, hours worked, temp jobs, quit rates, unfilled position, everything is saying this market, this job market is weakening to a point where, you know, we can have a real problem if that doesn't take the pressure off. so fed's got to move. got to move quickly to ensure that the labor market doesn't fall apart to a greater degree. they misjudged and got this wrong and now understand they got this wrong. it's on them to, you know, get moving here and start cutting rates aggressively. >> mark, thank you. >> sure thing. >> mark zandi.

>> as we head to break, check out the biggest laggards on the s&p 500 at this hour. topped off by caesars, nvidia, intel, bath and body works, warner brothers discovery suffering steep losses between 8 and 6%. our carl quintanilla has a look at what's ahead on the show. >> week two of the paris olympic games kicks off today after a big weekend of competition. here what's really striking is just how well integrated the games are with the city. you're not that far from an event and yet you're already, obviously, on one of the most beautiful streets in the world. "squawk on the street" continues from paris in a moment. ah, these bills are crazy. she

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." live from the summer olympic games here in paris. we're keeping our eye on the markets, of course, as the s&p

tries to find some stability in the midst of this global selloff. if you need an excuse to look away from your stock screen for a minute you might consider over the weekend an amazing bout of tennis as know jack djokovic does take carlos alcaraz in straight at roland-garros, gett his first gold medal and fifth in history to get the so-called golden slam. that's where you get all four grand slam singles titles plus olympic gold. he's also the old toast win olympic singles gold going all the way back to 1908. very emotional response, of course, after the match. he's 37. alcaraz is 21. by the way, just a few moments ago, djokovic tweets at alcaraz saying, another epic final, el classico, considering your age, your energy, your age, you probably have 20 more olympics in you. your gold will come. until next time, amigo. busy week here, 20 gold medal

events today alone. take a look at the medal count. the u.s. continues to outshine china, outshine france, outshine germany and australia. week two very much characterized by basketball, beach volleyball, track and field as we kind of say good-bye to swimming and gymnastics. by the way, simone biles just finished up her final events. i won't spoil it for you, but she will leave paris as second most decorated female gymnast of all time. of course, you can see all of that on peacock and on nbc tonight. >> who is the first most decorated gymnast of all time, carl? >> i knew you were going to ask me that and i didn't write it down. >> i'm sorry. >> but she will be second. >> i'm sorry. i never would have occurred to me that you wouldn't know that. you are always so prepared. is it mary lou retton. >> the statistic books are very complex. >> we'll find out. i know you're going to find out.

biles has been incredible to watch. djokovic, you made this point, very emotional. more so than i've seen him after he wins wimbledon or the u.s. open or any number of the other grand slams he's won so many times in his career. >> and you could see that just a couple of weeks ago in their last match, where he did obviously come up short. to watch him do this and that groelden slam, as we said, only done five times by the likes of cit steffi graf, for example. >> can't wait for what's coming. carl, thank you. we will find out the answer to that question as well. cryptocurrencies also plunging. bitcoin is hovering around 54,000. let's head over to mackenzie. >> more than $370 billion wiped off the overall value of cryptocurrencies and more than $1.1 billion in liquidations in

the crypto futures market in the last 24 hours as investors sell out of risk assets. bitcoin dropping to $49,000 at one point today. it's begun to pare some losses. still down 10%. ether firmly in the red. crypto related stocks like coinbase, riot platform, marathon digital and microstrategy are trading lower this morning. there are a few things happening here. crypto prices began to fall after that weaker than expected july jobs report last week, which helped stoke recession fears. the panic selling began to accelerate overnight during asian trading hours when we saw a broader slide in asia pac markets. a lot of this is a knock-on effect from wider risk assets. what's different this time around it's the first time a correction of this magnitude will be felt by a broader base of investors after the s.e.c.

approved spot for both bitcoin and ether. they have seen tens of billions. of dollars in flow. with morgan stanley allowing its 15,000 financial advisers to start pitching bitcoin etfs to its client starting this wednesday. there's a big question about risk appetite and whether we'll see wall street buy the dip or flee. melissa? >> thank you. let's take a look at the average rate on a 30-year mortgage, holding below 7%. that's the hoest level of the year as hopes of a september rate cut grow. let's get to diana olick with the very latest. a lot of people are watching this very clearly and cheering. >> rates are falling hard and fast. they came down all of last week. most sharply on friday. they will likely be even lower today. last week the average on 30-year fixed went to 6.4% by friday, the lowest level since early may

of 2023. the recent high was 7.52% in late april. home sales have been falling ever since. buyers were battling not just high interest rates but high home prices and a lack of supply. supply has improved a little bit. prices are still overheat. take a look at the difference. in just a few months it is stark when it comes to affordability. in april a buyer looking to buy a $400,000 home with 20% downpayment and 30-year fixed mortgage would have been facing a monthly payment of $2,240. not including insurance and property taxes. today that payment, $2,000. now, more buyers would also qualify for the loan at today's lower rates. an even bigger impact is on the refinance market at today's rate, well more than twice as many borrowers can benefit from a refi compared with one year ago. the vast majority of borrowers today have rates well below 5%. for those who may have bought a home in the last two years, this is an opportunity. homeowners are sitting on a

record amount of equity, but cash out refinancing has not gained much over the past year. melissa? >> how do you think the decline in mortgage rates balances out with the fears of recession, diana? the reason why mortgage rates are falling is because people are worried about what's going to happen with the economy and the decline in the stock market, obviously, impacts how people feel about their wealth, their situation. >> right. you would think -- i look at the build. ers today. you think they would be less bad than some of the other stocks. if you look at this as being your single largest investment, yes, mortgage rates have come down a bit, if you're worried about the economy, your job, your future, you don't want to take that step. essenpecially if you're the first-time buyer. i think if we start to see rates more in the 5% range, that might kick start a couple of people. >> diana, thank you. diana olick. let's give you a quick look at the markets before we head to a quick break here as well. as we pointed out a number of times. off the lows, the nasdaq still

down 3.3%. there's apple down 4.6%. sorry, going if reverse. warren buffett selling a lot of stock. you pointed it out. it can't go unnoticed. programs it's not unimportant given how large a stake that was for them at berkshire. now $227 billion in cash. >> not just apple but bank of america. you pair these two together and you think, during that runup, what did buffet see coming? did he anticipate some market turbulence? i don't know. >> here we are right now in the midst of some turbulence. we'll have a lot more coverage of that right after this. it's time to grow your business. create a website. how? godaddy. coding... nah. but all that writing...

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i. good monday morning. welcome to "money movers." we're live from post 9 of the new york stock exchange. markets are down. well off the lows. nasdaq 100 is tracking for what would be its third consecutive decline of 2% or more. if that does happen, that would be the first time that has happened since 2022. keeping an eye on treasuries, yields, we were down as low as 3.6 and change on the