(reporters) over here. kev! kev! (reporter 1) any response to the trade rumors, we keep hearing about? (kev) we talkin' about moving? not the trade, not the trade, we talking about movin'. no thank you. (reporter 2) you could use opendoor. sell your house directly to them, it's easy. (kev) ... i guess we're movin'. [♪♪] your skin is ever-changing, take care of it with gold bond's healing formulations of 7 moisturizers and 3 vitamins. for all your skins, gold bond. welcome to "power lunch." the global sell-off continuing and worsening today. the dow is 6% off its recent highs, but still up 2% for the

year. the nasdaq down nearly 3%, which would be its third straight decline of 2% or more for the first time, kelly, since 2020. >> and w start to weaken again. the tech power players that once led the mark are pulling it down today. nvidia down. apple 11% down, alphabet down 14, but they're all still positive on the year. >> we saw the declines worsening first in japan. nikkei had its worst day since 1987, the ewy versus its worth day since 2020. >> now it's around 54 and change. ether is showing some similar pressures. l prices are slightly

lower, but silver hitting the lowest level since may. copper lowest level since march. gold done 1%. joining is nicholas kolas, along with bob pisani. bob, i'm going to start with you. earlier today i heard you walk the viewers through a couple scenarios with respect to valuations. would you give us the abridged version of what you see from where you sit? >> first, there's two problems, we don't know where the economy is going. there's not a perfect relationship between gdp and the stock market and earnings. generally earnings growth have fair rules of thumb to use. the problem is we don't know where the gdp is going. second, the markets had very high expectations. for 2025, we're expecting 15% earnings growth. that's above normal. some of this is due to ai and tech, of course, but still a lot

of room for disappointment. the multiple, how much are you willing to pay for future. that's nom recessionary, but indications of an economic expansion that is expected. there's a lot of room for disappointment. you can game this out, tyler, very easily from the status quo, 19 times multiple times 15% earnings growth, you get roughly where you were on friday, you can go all the way down, crush that earnings growth, make it 5%, instead of a 1 multiple, recessionary multiples were 13 to 15. you put a 15 multiple, you could be at 3800. you get the point. there's a very wide range of potential outcomes. we just don't know, and the market is reflecting that. >> nick, what bob seems to be saying here is the market is

expecting too high earnings, or higher than might be plausible, willing to pay too much for them. is that what fundamentally is being reflected in today's sell-off? >> i think that's a large piece of it, that those fundamental issues will always play a role, but we've had several catalysts in the last two trading days, whether it's japan overnight or the jobs report that give us some hooks to hang that coat on, if you will, and give people a reason to be concerned. market action -- and catalysts, we've had two different catalysts over the last 48 hours. that's why you're seeing volatility spike so much. >> one of the levels you're watching now, even if we see a slowdown and not a revery, we might have to revise earnings. analysts are -- a typical growth read is like 2% in a

non-recessionary environment. numbers almost always come down, so markets kind of expect that, but if we start thinking about flat earnings, bob's point about growth coming forward comes into play. the offset will be if the fed does begin a fairly aggressive rate cycle, markets have visibility into the back half of next year, and that begins to put a floor on the stocks. so it's a balancing act right now. that's why you're seeing the markets move around so much. >> when the vix does what it has done today, go up as much as it has, it can signal that the market is bottoming. >> yeah, the vix is indicating -- is in panic motor. look, the long-term average on the vix is about 20. when you start getting above 30, that's concern. when you're above 50, that's genuine panic.

this morning we saw something very initial. backward-ation on the vix curve. the front contract, august contract was about 35, a little higher, and then everything else lower than that, even going into november, with the election. that kind of extreme move there, 60 and then into the 30s for everything else, or even the low 40s, is very, very unusual. i'm talking about the magnitude of the difference. traditionally that's indicated some short-term bottom in the market. that appears to be what's going on. the low print today on the s&p 500 was right at the open, so the traders are very good at sort of panicking, telling the market when there's extreme selling pressure in the market, and the backwardation is a very good indication of that. >> now the dow is closing in on a 1,000-point loss, which is

kind of where we began the day. what does this remind you of -- are there any historical allusions here? >> there absolutely are. the vix never closed above 50 since 1990, except for 2020. and it tells me also that we're going to have some volatility over the near term, because the thinkstory of the vix, the volatility clusters, it never spikes and goes back down to normal. it hangs around spicy levels for a while. the other thing from recent history is that the s&p doesn't bottom. it usually takes four to seven days for the s&p to bottom when the vix spikes to a level. not as high as today, but above normal levels. the history says watch the market, keep looking for'

opportunities, but don't rush in to buy today. >> what kind of lesson do you draw from the fact, even with a thousand-point decline in the dow, even with declines in the nasdaq, we're still down in the 2.5% range. this is not way out of normal, is it? >> it's about a two standard deviation move. so two and above begins to be unusual. we're out of the norm, but we are aware that august more than twice as likely to peak in terms of volatility than any other month. the big volatility months are august, october and sometimes january, so we're somewhat moving in form, actually. >> often this kind of stuff does

happen in august, for whatever reason, stuff happens in august. we'll see what happens. nick colas, thank you. we're seeing weakness across the globe with the etfs tracking brazil is lower. paul christopher is with wells fargo. why always august, why? >> when we all want to be on vacation, right? >> there is an aspect where you can say it's liquidity, there are reasons often, but i think even back to the default crisis in 2012, you know, we've been through a number of these. here we are wondering if there's something fundamental, and i wonder -- >> it really comes down to the sort of risk levels, the risk readings we have seen on friday, and especially again today.

coming out of friday, into the weekend, it looked like people were wonder if the u.s. has a recession. it typically drags other countries down with it, so you'll have a sell offin europe. then japan opens, and you see a huge sell-off there. keep in m&a mind those japanese investors are coming to the u.s. to buy stocks, because their market doesn't move much. something like today, they hedge with bonds, and they're buying the yen. then you add on all that hedging to buy u.s. treasuries because of the risk-off move, and another huge move higher in the yen, to 140, 142 per u.s. dollar. now you get more selling in the japanese market because the yen

has strengthened. that's going to hurt the earnings of a lot of japanese companies that are exporters. >> i think this is so important, and we're all trying to understand the next leg of this. what would you be watching for as to what happens in the next couple weeks' time? >> we've got to get some consensus back in the market about what's going on with the economy. our view is that the economy is still heading for a soft landing. what we have seen so far is not inconsistent with that view. there might have been an overreaction, a knee jerk when the employment numbers missed last week. once we get that consensus back in the market, then you'll start to see treasuries come back up. that would be a good sign. it would mean that there's not panic anymore, and we're heading back up toward where we were closer to 4, 4.25. that would -- internationally

it's going to reverse some of those risk trades and help the yen to come back down a bit, and so essential it comes down to that consensus on what's going to happen with the u.s., and from there, the yields come back to more recent levels, and we see the panic go away. >> is japan the real outlier here? we were looking at some of the european markets, and they were in a 1%dly, we're in the 2%, 3% decline, but japan is way out of line here, isn't it? >> it is out of line from the others, but that's the one-two punch i was talking about. but then you get the yen boost, those japanese institutional investors who see u.s. stocks selling, they turn to mondays, they hedge, which means they buy yen, pushing the yen higher. that has a pillover effect into

the japanese markets, because a strong yen hurts those exporters. >> paul, thank you. what can the bond market tell us? rick san telei is live at the cboe. >> yes, briefly it was in positive territory. it's going to be a lot more than brief in positive territory as time goes on. it's a way that many like to be short, and even though rates may be generically going down, doesn't mean that curve can't move. today it's all about the vix. here's what you need to look at. early in the morning, 65 and change, rounded to 66, by lunch, cut in half. how many times -- look at the big chart, whether it's 2008 or

2020, it had closes above 8 on. here's our lucky day. this is one of the architects of many of the new volatility contracts, so we have the man. rob, we disagreed off camera. my thought is when you see 65 and change, then it gets cut in half, if we don't get a good close, i don't think it will mirror other events of this type. you seem to have a different opinion. >> it's interesting. overnight we spiked, and we come in this morning, now trading closer to 34. i think the big piece is what happens in volumes. you see the spikes overnight. now, though, market's open, guys are trading. on friday you saw by numbers out of the vix. and close to 370,000 vix futures

that traded so, now we're coming into month what will happen? we saw big vix futures around 270,000 already coming in. you saw spx options close to the 1.5 million mark, and vix options approaching, so is the staying power of the options trade coming through? given that people are starting this is more of a recessionary process setting up. a lot of bond guise, they looked at friday data teeing up any exogenous factors with an outsized influence on the markets. i think that does explain it. my take is if we don't get a significantly higher close on the vix, so let's assume you're

right, it's going to cluster at higher levels. how do you expect it to play out? >> exactly as i would expect. you see the 34 level, it's elevated, but obviously nowhere near the highs. people are getting comfortable. things are settling in. people are start to get reposition. we have seen the big volume numbers for two days as people are repositioning to get ready for what lays ahead, so that they're comfortable and you doubt see the outsized spikes. >> if we don't get any closes for the rest of the week would you change your opinion? >> i don't think so. maybe near 20 historically over the long term. 34 is a pretty elevated level. it's not 50, of course. >> certainly not 8 on. >> certainly not 80. if you look back, too, i think, geez, the 90 is only three

occasion since we closed above 60. i think 34 is a very loveded number. >> ron, i always like to disagree with somebody of your call better intellect. i think a lot of if is due to the japanese carry trade blowing up. kellie, back to you. >> it was a great discussion. thank you both. still to come, as we head to break, check out the energy decliners. crude, though, back around 73. owveorin iwh ot en "per lunch" come back. okay, team! oh, thank you so much i couldn't have done it without you. honestly, i don't do a whole lot here. i'm really just here for the at&t internet, it's super-fast so, any pre-launch concerns? what if nobody buys them?

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the broader energy sector taking a hit, like exxon, bp, chevron, all in the red. for more here, let's bring in john kilduff, a cnbc contributor. john, welcome. good to see you. i can see why if the only thing we had to worry about is the economy why oil would be down. we have to worry about the imminent prospect that would be very destabilizing.

normally i would be tagging along it is this make shoe we're waiting to see drop here that's keeping they prices somewhat table. if we wrnlt have the tumult, we would be a lot higher this morning. it rum from full-on all-out war with iran. >> so we're waiting to see my experience is it will be a moderated response.

the oil market, tyler had been down, particularly out of china. dip into contraction, we're already losing china. it's going to be in the owl market, they've been flagging weaker demand there. so, you're comments about china are spot on. it's kind of slug usual grow.

that wasn't a bad number, we are finishing up the summer. we'll see where that goes. the japanese are really, you know, throwing us all for a loop here with the various moves. now what they're doing to unwide the japanese carry trade the oil market has problems, and check it out. just as the oil demand starts to slow, opec right now, at least, is on schedule later to increase production right into the face of that slowing.

they've probably turn tail and dial those back. just know that's on the table, too. that's what this market is grappling with. >> what i heard you say in answer to my first question is oil prices would be markedly higher, but for the overhang of a potential close economy and negative -- do i got you right there? >> 100%, tyler. over 80 for brent, no question in my mind. that's how objective the fears are about what's going to happen literally at any minute. >> if the world gets what you describe as a more moderated response from iran or its proxies in the area, what would you think the response in oil would be? >> there will be a sell-off

there's some nominal round number. really the big number is 68 and change. so i think we'll probably quickly go down to that one. >> john, thank you, always great to see you. coming up, we'll take a technical look at the sell-off and search for ways to navigate the volatility. first, check out apple, well off the lows, but we were down as much as seven after the news that berkshire was slashing its stake. details when "power lunch" returns.

welcome back, everybody. technology is in focus today. the s&p tech group closed at a report on july 10th, we're now around 15% below that level. here to discussion further is carter worth. good to see you, as always.

let's look at the s&p, or the tech sector, if you have that one ready. what do the charts tell you? >> sure, we can get to the charts if we want, but put this in 5% selloffs. 5% is report. people don't do much, but something happens once you go down more than five, stop losses have pro preentered, or managers get uncomfortable. if you look at the history in the s&p, all instances where it's dropped 5% plus going back to the inception of the index, this is now 9.7%, 14 sessions from the making of that high of july 16th. to put this in context, 9.7%, the average decline of those 240 is 11.8. the meeting is 8.2.

we're kind of there in terms of the magnitude of all 5%-plus. but individual stocks have dropped 40. a big stock like micron is 40. but the aggregates are at a point where it's a proper re-rating. whether you use the word dip, correction, sell-off, decline, drop, it doesn't matter. what we have done is we were type on corrected, complacent, and now much has reset. my hunch is, right, that the intraday lows are good on a day-to-day basis. now we have sell a goal post of sorts, but let's look at a few charts and figure out a way forward together. >> why don't we look at the tech sector there. >> yeah, look at that. the xs, right? down some 15, 18%, which is a

considerable amount much the thing about the line. i didn't fit it or want it to go there. that line connects thor intermediate lows, and we have sold off to the penney we bounced today. that high of three or four weeks ago won't be exceeded. i think those highs are good for the year. conversely, the low of today, which is similar to the april low, i think we hold here, and we start to actually grind and back and fill. it's not random, understanding this, where the index, it stop to the penny on that trendline. >> what is that orange line showing, carter? >> that's the rate of ascent from the bear market lows. the october 2022 low, qqq was down 27%. we've been ascending since.

that is the trend we are in, and that line measures the trend. we sold off to the trend today. >> exactly. that's clearly explained. let's move to the next chart which i think is appean s&p cha >> yeah. this is a bit different in the sense that we're not down that lower bend, but i put it in the -- these are math matti tic parallel line. we overshod the upper band. you can see how complacent the market was getting, and now we're back into the channel. the midpoint of the channel, interestingly, comes into play around 5,050. that would be a normal place for the market to settle. >> very interesting.

really illustrative. thank you, carter. >> you bet. thanks. bertha coombs has an upsaid. >> the united nations announced it will fire nine staffers for plenty can refugees because of their possible involvement in the october 7th hamas attack on israel. the u.n. says there was sufficient evidence to conclude that they may have taken part in that surprise attack that resulted in the death of nearly 1200 people. israel has previously claimed some unrwa employees took part in that attack. the agency employs about 13,000 people in gaza. hurricane debby has been

downgraded, but it's not over. it's bringing catastrophic flooding, up to 30 inch of rain in florida. and bucca dibeppo has filed bankruptcy. it says it will keep itse hanging operations in operation, and open a new one, which is unusual when you're filing for bankruptcy. i guess it's reorganization. thank you, bertha. cryptocurrencies have been falling -- and i'm saying really falling, whether it's bitcoin our gold, even the hedges are getting trimmed today. repor nc une.t

welcome back to "power lunch." crypto is also tumbling today in the global sell-off. it's falling below 50,000, back up to 53.

the crack below 50, down 13% since saturday. our next guest says it's in part it's open seven days a week, and the only way investors could express their concerns. mike, good to see you. how did bitcoin itself become so, you know, beta and risk on and risk off? is this what the founders and creators wanted? >> good to see you again, kelly. the reality is this is a situation where it's become a micro-asset. they had all become more of a macro play. now we're in a macro environment where bad news is just bad news.

you can speculation whether it's the middle east, the yen carry, basically the world is wrong way, economic data comes down to the fact of the matter, and we saw a risk-off environment, over the weekend, bitcoin is only one of the assets you can traces to take that view. we woke up to a lot of panic. one is leverage and strategy drift. i think we saw people over-position themselves, and misposition themselves from a strategy standpoint. >> to the pure holders want the institutional leveraged money out of it? and what do you make of it's basically been steadier. >> it will continue to be. everyone talks about the vix moves the last 24 hours and we were at levels november since 2020 and 2008. in '08, bitcoin didn't xu.

it doesn't matter, but in 2020, we thought the price of bit coin from a market structure standpoint could potentially go to zero, and what i consider, which is a bizarre concept in traditional markets are relatively benign, relative to the broad are volatility. that goes to show you how the markets come from super-hot speculation to primarily again, what's happened with etfs, and a bit more of institutional ownership, what's happened with bitcoin. if this type of -- this isn't the world shutting down, but it's the same level of volatility. you would have thought you would have seen a much more exacerbated move from that. >> you're touching on what i want to ask about. bitcoin was refly 70,000, want it? and now it's in the 50s. is bitcoin an investor's asset

or a trader's asset? >> it's both. so, you know, full disclosure, personally the idea is you compound high-quality assets, bitcoin being the primary one. you can also trade them. depends on your asset size, things like cryptocurrencies. a lot of what's happening below that that long tail alt is player versus player. the overall market doesn't grow that much, but the capital market in crypto is fluid thing like bitcoin, the basis trade has been a fantastic trade. miners, bitcoin-related stocks are super volatile, so it makes sense to trade for hedge funds, but for the audience of this

program, if you're in a position where you haven't positioned yourself in an area or market you're not familiar with and you overexpose yourself, that's when you get into trouble. our firm, for example, we have no current exposure to bitcoin or ethereum. i personally have exposure, and i recommended that to anyone that i know that invests their own capital, but there's a lot of things that occur in the market on a day-to-day basis from the speculative portion of your portfolio, would make you reduce risk in a certain asset. i'm not saying -- i think this is a great time to be buying, in december of 2018, it just means don't -- basically don't go out there and buy your entire lot on a day like today. mike, thank you. we appreciate it.

still ahead, some of biggest names in trading getting slammed with outages amid today's sell-off. before we head to break, shares of intel, stock closed with a 26% loss on friday, reporting the worst profit in 50 years. shares still off about 6% more today. we'll be right back. - [narrator] wherever people go, whatever they do, food will be there, and so will we.

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welcome back. a familiar pattern, stocks are heading back toward session lows. dow is down more than 1,000 points. let's get a market flash on some of the fintech names.

kate rooney has the details. >> hey, kelly. robinhood is one of the companies that is getting hit the hardest. it was down 15%. it's cut the losses pretty much in half. there are a few issues at play. customers had problems accessing 24-hour trading, robinhood telling me this is due to a third-party providers called blue ocean. there were problems logging into charles schwab and fidelity, and i'm told those issues have been resolved. robinhood over time it's diversified, and now relying more on cash accounts and credit cards. though this jump in volatility we are see today, we'll see it report later in the works and arkk finish tex tends to be a

good barometer. sofi, though, is one of the very few names in the green, rising on expectations of more loan refinancing. software as a whole, tech sector having a tough day. they were already out of the narrative that ai spending -- with those names today down about 3%. thank you very much. still ahead, potential buyout rumors. we will reveal the name and a few others in today's "three stock lunch." that's next. icy hot. ice works fast. ♪♪ heat makes it last. feel the power of contrast therapy.

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juror the doj and google and deirdre bosa has it. >> google has lost its antitrust suit. the agreements found to be anti-competitive and violation of section 2 of the sherman act.

the remedies still to come but google shares are falling on that fnews. getting close to the low of the day, $156.60. we'll continue to get more information on this and bring it to you as we have it. we've reached out to google and haven't heard back yet. >> thank you very much, deirdre bosa. now it's time for today's three stock lunch. let's take a look at some of the biggest movers, starting with nvidia. the shares down nearly 6% as investors continue to worry over the return on investment for ai spending. the stock about 30% off its highs. here is boris, the managing director of fx strategy at bk asset management. >> hi, kelly. >> if clients pull back on the need for big investment in ai it could hurt nvidia. i don't know what the deal is with blackwell chips and so forth. the price action is making us take notice. when do you do with the stock here? >> with all of us who survived

dotcom years, is this another cisco? i don't think so. i think ai is still a huge opportunity and of course nvidia stands to benefit from it the most. the blackwell chips are actually still high and their going to start shipping them in third quarter. all the turmoil and the correction from the highs, it's probably one of the things right now, speaking of volatility to sell puts against it and let it come to you. give you an example to put that this week, 87s, will give you a that are, buy the stock 13% below its current price. if i was going to put a position into nvidia right now, i would be selling puts and try to let the stock come to me. i think it's still going to be a very good play. >> on next to kellanova. it is one of the bright spots in the market, up 14% as reuters reports that mars, the name behind m&m's and snickers mulling a buyout of the snack

food company. kellanova on track for its best day in decades. call this a kel la novella, couldn't you? >> it's a spinoff of kellogg. people, you know, easier way to think about this. they are in a good space. they are in the snack space, which as we know, is the single most addictive form of food consumption. the market loves that. they have a very big wide footprint in the emerging world and, therefore, there's potential for growth and they've improved their margins. a lot of good things on their part. this bump off of the potential takeout makes it much more expensive. to me, i wouldn't want to be chasing the stock right now. if i was going to take it, i would take half position now and keep my powder dry in case the take out rumors turn out to be false. it's going to be a long-term play, but going to deflate quickly if this falls apart. >> and speaking of deflating and falling apart, the market is just -- is not a pretty afternoon.

talk pal lenten, going to report after the bell. shares down 7% this morning and reversed course. what -- do you want to try to get ahead of this one? what do you do? >> i think palantir is a category leader in ai. the only category making money whose demand is -- i'm sorry, whose product is very much demanded by corporate america and, therefore, i think it's a long-term buy. but again, i would scale into this position. >> all right. >> boris, thanks very much. boris slosberg on three stock lunch. the dow off more than 1,000 points as you see there. the low was about 1200 points lower. more "power lunch" next.

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welcome back. heading back towards session lows as we look to close out the trading session. some names at high, lockheed martin, lewis towers watson, colegate. >> all-time high, but off of

that, down 2% now. a busy day, thanks for watching "power lunch"p we appreciate it. >> see what the next hour or so brings. "closing bell" starts right now. guys thanks so much. welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner live from post nine at the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour begins with the selloff in stocks today. it is a substantial one as fears about the economy take center stage. throw in turmoil in japanese markets and the scorecard today looks like this with 60 minutes to go in regulation. we have substantial declines of more than 3%. almost across the board. dow looks like it's heading in that direction as well. there's the nasdaq down by near 4% at this moment. the russell, well hit hard today as well. down about the same amount. stock only part of the story. bond yields getting a lot of attention they were lower as trading began, fears about the economy, but you see a bit of a reversal. there was some bette