it's what you want. >> sounds like you have your eye on a lot. >> i have cash. >> an industrial aviation parts and metals producer, we added to the etf. >> a pretty good bounceback for stocks. i'll see you on "closing bell." "the exchange" is now. thank you very much, stcott. i'm kelly evans. stocks are rebounding from yesterday's sell-off and that yen carry trade spilloff. was the growth scare overdone? our market guest says yes. he thinks something else is overdone, too, and likes one trade because of it. barry knapp says recession might still be a risk. 50 basis point cut should be on the table for september. he's been calling for that since before friday's jobs report. he's back to explain and break it down today. disney announcing a price hike

for its streaming plan as we speak. the latest on how much it costs, what's included, and how to trade the stock into earnings. that's coming up in earnings exchange. first, the markets. to dom chu with our latest numbers. what do you see? >> it's pretty strong, kelly. we have a decent ways to go just to get back yesterday's losses. in that session the dow lost about 1,034 points. we've gotten back 543 of them so far today, up about 1.5%. the s&p 500, we're going to call it right near session highs. it was just about 107, 108 points at the point highs of the session just moments ago we were up seven points even at the low so generally a positive day up 2% for the s&p. 2% north of gains. 356 points for the nasdaq composite. 16,556. that tech heavier trade was the he center for yesterday's sell-off. we'll see if that sticks around. now speaking of that technology trade, one of the leading indicators, the tip of the sphere when it comes to

technology, at least right now, is in computer chip stocks, especially names like nvidia for the artificial intelligence play giving back 6.5% after steeper losses yesterday. broadcom up 4%. advanced micro is down nearly 1%. vaneck is up 4%. $221. some are eyeing $ed 210, the moving average for the etf. so keep an eye on that. and then a couple big movers with regard to earnings. one is a dow component and that's caterpillar up 4. 5% on an earnings beat. and kenvue, the company spun off from johnson and johnson last year that warehouses many consumer brands like band-aids, tylenol, listerine. taeps not all about the broader macro narrative. these are stories driving it to

the upside. i'll send things back over to you. >> a strong session for uber. dom, thanks very much. the markets start pricing in a half-point cut. my next guest has been pushing for that before friday's weaker jobs report and says not easing last week is where the fed went wrong. the big policy mistake happened when they decided on passive qt two years ago. joining me is barry knapp at macroeconomics and cnbc senior economics reporting steve liesman is here with us as well. barry, not to dive into the really intense question before the simple one, but i can't help myself. what do you think is the mistake on the qt front? >> yes. in essence, by being passive qt, the bulk of the easing, and april degreesive with rate hikes caused the deepest yield curve inversion since paul volcker. that paul volcker yield curve inversion, it never recovered.

at that time it was 80% of the supply of mortgage credit. this go-around they've put undue amounts of pressure on the small banks system and small businesses so, in essence, the small business sector had to bear the brunt of the weakening of demand that's arguably contributed to the disinflationary process. we've been expecting or viewed small business and climate as overestimated by the bls because of their infamous model for something like 18 months now, increasingly evidence. you can see it in the household survey, the increase in the unemployment rate. and it's now becoming clear the way they conducted policy put all this pressure on small businesses, large businesses were able to benefit from tight credit spreads, borrowing, the credit market, and this whole thing has piled on itself and we've finally reached the point it's become systemic and we're

seeing real signs of weakening. >> let me try to translate what barry is saying. if the fed had shrunk the balance sheet a couple of years ago, putting those securities back in the market, instead of ratcheting rates up to 5.5%, small, medium sized businesses might have survived better. i'm curious what your thoughts are. this is playing the -- it's easy to look at it now and we have to debate going forward, but it's an interesting point. >> yeah. a lot of respect for barry, as always. i kind of think of qt like a technical nuclear weapon. it makes a lot of sense in neary but nobody quite knows how it works in practice. so i do know the fed was reluctant to use it, use it as a tool. it wanted it to operate in the background. it had bad experience with overdoing it. it didn't know what the right liquidity levels were.

i would have to look more into it. as i follow the adt small business hiring, i didn't see more on the hiring or the rehiring on the small business side though i could understand some difficulty when it comes to the cost of credit and credit standards for small business. that would have made it harder. they might have expanded more. i do think there's a really good discussion to be had the next time the fed gets around the qt which hopefully will be never. as to how and how much it relies upon which one of these two levers, which is should it have wound down the balance sheet more as a tightening measure and not raised interest rates as much? >> barry, let me throw this in the soup as well. renewed focus with this paper on whether the treasury has been esh ewissuing too many pills. a better decision than six weeks

ago making sure the plumbing of the financial market worked smoothly while they transition -- while they worked through this inflationary period and has been part of this calculus. >> i like the moran paper. i will call it that. i agree that actually what they did with the treasury general account in 2021 when they stopped issuing altogether and injected 1.7 trillion in liquidity was perhaps an even bigger influence than last november to start issuing more bills relative to bonds. but the real issue here is there are three channels for qe/qt and the fed is only focused on that liquidity channel and how it affects bank reserves and liquidity in the market. the two more important channels are the impact on the pricing of the most important price for capital allocation in the system which is the ten year treasury. that's the duration factor. buying those securities, they lowered the rates and still own

25% of the outstanding stock of treasuries and agency mortgage backed securities. that repayment risk is a huge channel for qt, too. they lower volatility. ignoring those two channels is how it does work. steve is right, the fed doesn't know how it works, and that's partially because they don't have anyone on the federal reserve that ever sat on a mortgage desk like rob kaplan did, for example. but he's gone now, that really understands how these channels work. it's in the weeds. it's a broader point. here we are at a point where we're at what i would describe as maximum negative labor market v convexity. if you look at the beverage curve, vacancies to job openings, or the phillips curve, wages to the unemployment rate, we're at the point where any

further weakening of demand would lead to a nonlyinearnonli. it's not that we're already in recession. >> totally. >> the starting point doesn't matter. when you go up half a point, you never stop. >> right. >> you keep going at least another percent and a half. and this is why the markets just realized that after the last cpe report. the economic outlook was deteriorating. the fed policy setting was way too restrictive and the markets started to reflect that. the sell-off in tech, the big rally in small caps and small banks because people were short them. the ten handle move in dollar yen over the course of a short period of time, the sell-off in the nikkei, which is really just a leverage bet on the genai, semicap equipment makers, all these things are a function of the market realizing policy is set to tight, growth is slowing,

and it's time to get it down to 4. >> a point and a half of cuts. steve, the quick last word. >> so if you look at your trajectory priced into market, it's similar to what barry is talking about, and it is a really interesting question because you look at where we are now, where we're priced in for the beginning of 2025. we use the january contract because it's a full month, but it speaks for the full year. we are down near 4, up a little bit. there are the probabilities. 50s, down where it was yesterday. my reporting suggests it's a live possibility but depend on the data. and then 25 in november. the next chart, the stepdown. what i think is fascinating about this, kelly, and maybe a discussion for another day, when the fed gets to the last endpoint, january 2026, it's at 3. guess what the neutral rate it considers? 3. to barry's point, the fed

remains tight over this period. and even if it does the aggressive moves, brings it down to 4, what barry is calling for sounds outlandish relative to a week ago, but barry's right in the sense that we should have been talking about this six months ago. i've been comparing the fed to a retailer who in the heat of the summer you need to be ordering sweaters for christmas, and the f fed was like in the heat of the summer i'm still ordering t-shirts and bikinis. >> the rate from fred, it is at 191. to steve's point, and i know we have to get to rick -- >> the fed got tighter over the recent couple of days. >> we all agree. we'll pick it up next time. barry, you have been on this. i wanted to give you this shoutout. we'll see what happens. i retain hope but you've been on this for months now.

barry knapp and our steve liesman. threat's get rick santelli in to tell us what we're seeing in the bond markets today, rick. >> you should look at an intraday of threes, of tens further down the curve, making new high yields for the day. because neither reflect this auction. this auction was a good auction. 58 billion, three years. a short maturity. now even though all the variables were vae very close to average, slightly above average and the yield was where the one issued market was, i gave it a b, everything was pretty tight.. what's going on? the 10s and 30s to follow, probably more important and what the market is telling meal here especially with basically a parallel shift on most of the maturities from five year on it

the amount of net change from yesterday, roughly about the same, we are reversing yesterday. yesterday was an event that had more to do with the carry trade and yields are coming back very aggressively here. and that, to me, trumps anything with regard to the auction because it was a pretty good auction, and it also shows you the caution one needs to take. sometimes the response in the market after an auction doesn't truly reflect the dynamics of the auction, so b as in boy, tomorrow 42 billion 10s, 35 billion 30s. the most important issue how we reversed yesterday in such an aggressive fashion. maybe we haven't recouped everything back, but we're certainly recouping a good chunk of it in the treasury complex. kelly, back to you. >> rick, our guest yesterday said if it goes back to 4.25, the market will be relieved because most of us think low rates are the way out of this but going back on that previous trend would put the trades back

into equilibrium or something. >> yeah, you know, i'm still not a believer that the fed did anything wrong. i think they need to be hyigher for longer. the market is needy. it's having a bit of a fit it's not getting what it wants. >> rick, the market itself is telling you -- >> break even. >> it's 191. >> it's a joke -- >> why are they a joke? >> tips don't really give you any information. they really don't. the next cpi number could be high. what's going to happen? tips will readjust. >> we'll see. >> the fed fund futures. those spreads in the tips don't tell you the type of information you need. and, for the most part, what inflation is doing, it's not getting back to target and we found out in europe it bounces around a bit. let's see what the next few inflation numbers are before we give the fed a bad grave on not easing. >> the only reason i want to see if tips go up or not to your point. rick, thank you.

we appreciate it today. by the way, don't miss you're exclusive interview with jaimy dimon on the program tomorrow as he's on his 14th annual bus tour meeting with clients across the country. live on "the exchange." turning back to the markets, the mega caps seeing the biggest losses. the 30 largest stocks in the s&p have collectively lost nearly are $3 trillion in the past couple weeks. for comparison. remaining 470 stocks lost about a trillion and a half during rt same time span. nvidia schhed more than 600 million. my next guest is buying the dip in big tech. the president of potomac wealth advisers, mark, i'm surprised. tell me. >> i don't know why you're surprised. those are some of the best companies in the world. yes, they were a bit overvalued but look at the valuations today relative to last week.

everyone was talking about a.i. and technology and the investments companies will need to make in cloud and security and everyone is worried about tech. i think the move yesterday makes it healthier now to invest in technology. we think even if the economy slows, that's more of a reason to buy into the growth trade, to buy in technology. companies cannot sit on the sidelines and not invest in those important areas. we think even a slowdown where the growth is going to be and where it's going to be resilient. >> i joke about being surprised but i think of you as a stock picker, someone trying to look through the momentum crowd and focus on fundamentals and some would argue big tech are the new consumer staples. plenty think the a.i. trade got overdone and the valuations were too high. >> it may have. look at amazon, apple, meta, and

plenty of other tech names broad base. we like broad base technology, etfs, the more equal weight. people think they're buying technology when they buy the xlk. that's 45% in two names. and we think that's not a prudent approach. we like a broader base. we don't want our clients to be exposed to something like crowdstrike which is down 40% in a month. i know it's fancy and sounds great to throw out names and pick them, unless you're deem on the inside, you don't know what's around the corner and crowdstrike is a great example why we likebroad based, more equal weight and not an overweight into mega caps. >> that is a good point. do you think the market broadly speaking is in a rotation, in a defensive tilt? looking at lockheed, i saw you were coming on today. i was reminded of your defense picks. that was last year. curious how that fits into what you think is going on in the

market if it does. >> one of the reasons we like defense, graeat memory, you wan things that don't run in the same direction with, for example, mega cap tech and defense is going to run on its own and, unfortunately, there remains a need for this globally. defense etf would be doing a lot better if they didn't include boeing. if you take boeing out of the big defense sector etfs, the other main components such as a raytheon, this has been a good place to diversify away from technology. that's why we liked it and why we think investors should still consider it. it gives them a buffer against unexpected event and that's a good construction in a portfolio to build it out that way. >> mark, thanks for joining us. good to hear from you. we appreciate it. mark avallone.

>> if you wonder how the yen carry trade is affecting markets, a great explainer and why it matters to investors. scan the qr code. and still to come, vice president harris has her running mate choosing minnesota governor team walz. first, mortgage rates have plunged from 6.81 last monday to about 6.50. more than a full point lower than the high of 7.50 in april. handling mortgage service and originations and what this means on the housing market next. another look at stocks trying to stage a rebound from yesterday's deep sell-off. the dow and s&p coming off the worst day in nearly two years falling for the first time since october and the small caps are coming off three straight days of 3% declines, the first time

that's happened since black monday in 1987. we're back after this. >> announcer: this i"t exchange" on cnbc.

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xfinity internet customers can buy one unlimited line and get one free for a year. get the fastest connection to paris with xfinity. welcome back to "the exchange." mortgage rates have fallen quite a bit in the past week as yields plunged ahead of the fed easing. we'll see. the 30-year fixed is now right around 6.50%.

my next guest says his company stands to benefit. it's great to have you here. >> thanks, kelly. good to be here. >> a lot of people are putting their hopes in here maybe the housing market can rise if the rest of the economy falters. what do you think about that? >> i think if rates do fall and continue to fall, you'll see a lot of refinance. we had our biggest lock day on friday and saturday, application day, than we've had in a year. if you look at our overall portfolio, 20% has a rate higher than 6%. so we'll see what happens with rates, but it certainly could lead to a massive movement in refinance. >> it's a confusing thing to talk about because people think the housing market has been going up because prices have gone up but activity itself has been low because there's so little inventory. if rates drop a little bit, do

you think we get inventory coming back in the market? >> i do. i think you have a lot of people on the sidelines, to your point. they have the lower rate, they're locked in, and they're sitting on a ton of appreciation. if rates come down, i think that will spur quite a bit of activity on the purchase side. >> remind me, how much -- there wasn't much purchase activity going on in terms of the business mix. >> yeah. no, look, in this market we're focused on the services business. the largest servicer in the country. we service one out of ten mortgages in the country, and that has been tremendous. and we think about our business, to your point earlier, as a balanced business model so we can really succeed in any rate environment. but servicing has really been our focus in the last year, year and a half, as rates have continued to increase. >> so you said you had a really busy day on friday, the busiest in a year.

6.5% mortgage rates really move the needle? what would? >> i think you'll have to get another 50 basis-point move to really move the needle. again, if you look at our portfolio and certainly we're representative across the country, we have about 20% that is above that 6% rate. so for a customer to really get a benefit, you're going to need to see more movement before you see a ton of activity. look, we'll see if the fed stays the course or if they make a move. i think if that does happen, you're going to see a lot of activity. we've been investing in our platform, if you look at what we've tried to do over the past couple of years, we've added a lot of capacity. we've had a lot of team members there. so we're ready if rates do continue to move down. >> and do you have a view on what would help push the spread lower? i think it's about a half point wider than usual, so we're not

getting the full benefit of lower rates to lower mortgage rates. we have this half-point spread. people say it's because of regulation, because it's all in the fed's balance sheets. there's a number of things to sift through. do you have any idea what would help on that front? >> no, i don't see it changing anytime soon, to your point, for really all the factors that you mentioned. i don't see it tightening in the near future. i don't see that. >> it will take even more on the rate side to bring mortgage rates down to something that will move things. jay, it's great to check in with you. thanks for your time. we appreciate it. jay bray. coming up, disney riding a six-week losing streak into earnings before the bell tomorrow. we'll look at the numbers and narratives to know as they've just raised prices 25% on their streaming product.

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welcome back to "the exchange." i'm tyler mathisen with your cnbc news update. microsoft firing back at delta airlines today. lawyers for microsoft saying the carrier turned down repeated offers for help following the global i.t. outage last month. it comes after delta hired prominent lawyer david boies to seek $500 million in damages from the software giant and crowdstrike for thousands of flight cancellations in the days following that outage. in the wakes of far-right riots across the uk, elon musk posted that, quote, civil war is inevitable. uk's prime minister fired back saying comments have no justification. the riots unfolding last week that left three girls dead and was falsely blamed on a muslim migrant through an online mst information campaign. and billionaire michael

bloomberg is giving $600 million to four historically black medical schools. donations are said to be one of the largest ever private donations to any hbcus. kelly, back to you. see you in a bit. >> thanks so much. coming up, vice president harris is choosing governor walz as her running mate. if you ask real estate mogul peebles, he says it's a bad one and the implications for the isafr ss community back te th.

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welcome back. kamala harris has selected tim walz as her 2024 running mate. he served six terms in the u.s. house of representatives and was elected governor in 2018. one of my next guests says he falls into the do no harm category and another says he was a terrible pick allaround. don peebles along with pimco's head of public policy. i believe those not minced words were yours about the pick. you're a housing guy. isn't he the most pro-housing

guy on the planet? >> he should be neutral or value added. i think what they did here is made a decision on identity politics. the better choice would have been wolf, whitmer or wes moore. all three didn't fit the optics of what they wanted to pick. and so if you go into policy, vice presidents don't set policy so it's irrelevant. the president of the united states sets the policy. >> the last governor to be on a winning ticket as vice president was andrew johnson in 1865. is that true? >> apparently, yes. according to the internet. hi, kelly. this is -- clearly, i'm talking about of the candidates that she

had sort of narrowed down the selection process to. tim walz was the most sort of do no harm candidate. not many people know who he is. he is an athletic coach, a geography teacher he was -- he had a stint in the army. he's a pretty likeable guy. he was on the hill. both democrats and some republicans even liked him. he had quite a more centrist record on the hill, interestingly, than when he became governor. he sort of pivoted more to the left. folks reading the tea leaves about his policies more centrist, again, on the hill. but as governor, particularly when they won both chambers of the state legislature became increasingly progressive. >> wasn't pence the governor when he won with trump, was he governor at the time? >> yes, he was, the governor of indiana. >> maybe this is a chatgpt, they don't have access to the recent

years. what are the implications for the business community if any? >> i think from the business community you have a moderate dressed up as a moderate. what he's done in minnesota, many of the policies have been progressive. the vice president doesnot set policy. kamala harris, if she's elected president, will set policy. and so it's what her policies are and what trump's policies are. we've heard little from kamala harris as to what her vision for america is in terms of economic policy or foreign policy. i think we're going to need to hear more of that, and that's how the decision making process will go, for those who have not made a decision yet, and that's a very small group of people. i think they were looking to move some swing states here. wolfe would have been a better choice. >> what do we turn our attention

to? the convention is coming up. the debate sounds like it's not going to happen? >> we don't know. i think that's to be determined. a presidential debate is possible. president trump has suggested a september 4 debate on fox news and vice president harris said she would stick to the september 10th on abc. this could be a singular debate, a monologue, if you will. i would agree that harris hasn't laid out her agenda. she almost has to run on a biden agenda. president biden is still the president. to distinguish herself dramatically on nip of these policies really just isn't practical, maybe marginally on israel in particular.

out-of-that we're telling our clients to think she will have, for all intents and purposes, a biden agenda. everyone should just go to the beach and have a glass of rose and enjoy their august because polling right now, particularly through the convention, is just not going to be very reliable. there's a harris honeymoon. a much better state of the race in september. there's probably a response in polls. enjoy your august. pay attention when you come back after labor day in september. >> come back for the jobs report the first week of september. sounds good to me. in kt fact, we'll let you go. we spoke about recession odds and the inverted yield curve on the program yesterday.

that curve briefly turned positive for the first time in two years. the ceo says he sees it as a good sign for commercial real estate. take a listen. >> i believe the fear in commercial real estate is overblown. so many people are talking about this so-called maturity wall, payments for commercial real estate. think what this change in rates has done for that. it's made that much more affordable and will soften the blow in commercial real estate. >> not only that but top of the hour, if the yield curve uninverts that could bring down the spreads for mortgages and make them tight to the ten year to help lower the rates and spur activity. what do you think? disaster averted? >> i think wishful thinking. commercial office buildings, the market has changed. the consumption has declined significantly. it has declined for the long term. there are less consumers of commercial office space.

interest rates will not rescue buildings that are half empty and that's the issue with commercial real estate and the impact these vacant office buildings have had on urban retail, another shoe to drop soon in places like new york, d.c., chicago, and many other urban cities around the country like l.a. i think you will see the impact of commercial offices. no, nothing will help commercial office buildings right now unless all of a sudden people wake up tomorrow and say, hey, we all want to go back to work, commute an hour to two hours every day each way. then otherwise i don't see that. they've been given this reprieve. they all know the fundamentals you see. for the ones that have more exposure, are there workouts happening? i have seen some sales try to offload properties they think probably aren't coming back.

>> they're selling mortgages for before. the big global banks are selling billions in commercial mortgages to investors who are taking on an opportunistic basis. these loans have been extended, modified, with lower interest rates. it is happening quietly and slowly, commercial buildings are selling and they're selling for depressed prices. there will be more of that coming. one political policy, washington, d.c., if the president of the united states says to the federal workers, come back to work, come back to your offices or you're fired, it cannot take americans three years to get their tax returns because the irs agents can't log in at home and can't take people's tax records home so they have to review in their offices and they're refusing to come in. so leadership there changes the

dynamic and sets a different tone for the country. >> for d.c., i take your point -- listen, i'll get up on my soap box and say give flexibility and figure out the details. i know the developers don't want to hear that, but d.c. is particularly in trouble for that reason. we'll leave it there. thanks for your time. >> great to see you. don peeples. following the doj's ruling yesterday that they hold an illegal monopoly and that sent shares lower 4.5%. we'll look at what steps are next in "tech check." take a look at shares of company chegg down 22% after a weaker q3 guide. lackluster enrollment expected through 2029. a $2 stock. the ceo is back with us

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shares of both google and apple are slightly lower after yesterday's landmark antitrust decision. the court agreeing withthe doj that google held an illegal monopoly in search and tech advertising. there are unanswered questions how this will affect big tech. let's bring in deirdre bosa for the details this hour. what are people saying? >> it now comes down to the remedy, will it be structuring or operational, giving you a choice to use google on the iphone and other devices? this will shake out over months and potentially years. google is appealing. jonathan kanter said the search market is already at its most

critical inflection point in 15 years. competitors like perplexity and openai are trying to make inroads. apple is integrating chatbots into its software. they recovered on the session today, though turning lower recently. it was a major victory for the doj and did rattle investors. there's no small amount of skepticism this will result before the market itself changes or the administration changes potentially altering that regulatory landscape. more likely the greater risk for investors is that the lawsuit distracts google over time from the most important rates at hand, the arms race. the company goes to trial against the doj a second time in september over ad tech. this battle or battles are far from over. kelly,a separate development in the ad world crossing the wires today, elon musk's x has filed

an antitrust lawsuit against advertising groups over a, quote, systemic illegal boycott accuses the companies of unfairly targeting the platform over safety standards. some context here, just last november he told advertisers that were pulling their ads to, quote, go eff yourself, if i can put it delicately. >> i didn't know you could sue people for that. it sound like he's saying a conspiracy to boycott or something to that effect. what's the next thing to watch for on the google or alphabet front? they're wait to go hear what the remedy will be and we are going to have to ponder how much the business model is shifting for the ultimate significance of that. >> the remedy discussion kicks off in september, the same time it's facing the separate lawsuit can the doj over ad tech. it could be as severe as something like breaking up the business or forcing google to divest part of its business.

that seems unlikely operationally they could do something like how it already operates in the eu which is when you open up your browser, it gives you a choice of which search engine you want to use. and, in that case, there's skepticism it would amount to much. keep its dominance, its market share because zsh -- this is what google argued all along, its provides the best choice. microsoft has trying to get in with bing. unsuccessfully couldn't open that ping system. could microsoft pay apple to be the default search engine. it's interesting. again, this will take a long time to sort out. >> deirdre for now, thanks. we appreciate it. still to come, disney is hiking prices as much as 25% for its streaming business. we have the details and how to trade the stock. rivian and super micro. will be a busy 24 hours on the

earnings front. "earnings exchange" is next.

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streaming price hikes that just happened this hour. julia boorstin with the details. julia? >> that's right, kelly. starting on october 17th prices are going up between a dollar and two dollars for subscribers to disney plus. so the cheapest plan is going from 8 to $10 a month. that includes ads. hikes to bundles of the disney flagship streamer along with hulu and espn plus, they vary depending on the plan. now, in addition, prices for hulu's live tv packages are increasing by $6 for the ad supported and ad free options. along these hikes, disney is adding more content to disney plus, giving subscribers access to abc news live, 24-hour news streaming channel and rolling out new play lists for its premium customers, including real life documentaries and the like. now disney plus most recently hiked prices last october. kelly? >> double digit for many of the plans. thanks, julia boorstin. disney is also one of the stocks in today's earning

exchange along with super micro and rivian. we'll start with disney, gina, which reports with the stock down 30% from its recent highs. analysts are keeping an eye on the parks and cruisers, subscriber growth, box office. do you like the stock here? >> so we do. we actually continue to hold disney. it's been a long-term hold for us. so when you look at disney and what they've actually gone through and what they're headed into, it still remains a very defensive stock. and we think that its valuation is fair if not slightly undervalued given the property, the continued defensiveness of its parks despite a consumer slow down. and quite frankly, the streaming sector will offset kind of the slowdown in cord cutting in linear tv revenue. we think all in all the package for disney is compelling and continues to be compelling. >> it's a good case to be made

for somewhat beaten up stock. what about super micro on that note? lost more than half its value after yesterday's sell-off. jp morgan remains bullish. robust cap-x in terms of the demand expectations and look the partnership with rivian. what do you do with super micro. >> we also hold this one and continuing to hold it. this is one i don't think you wade into right now. i think there's a sentiment shift that is happening. so if you've banked a lot of -- if you banked a lot of return, then it's a different story than sort of wading in while the markets are really choppy. the outlook for this stock is tremendous. they are showing incredible growth, but they're also, you know, locking a little stretched in their valuation. relative to nvidia they look fantastic. but relative to the rest of the industry, they're still looking stretched and it's why they got beat up. we think that could continue as the market continues to rerate. >> and it's still doubled this year, volatile as it is.

what about ri vian, down nearly 40%? >> this is interesting. we think they could be a potential buy. rivian is one that definitely got beat up because it was not profitable. and they have committed to a path to profitability. i think what we're going to see this earnings -- this quarter is that they are continuing to show that. they're continuing to deliver and grow deliveries, quarter over quarter and year over year. and they are also cutting their costs. and effectively showing that they can make profitability by year end, which quite frankly it's pretty much a requirement at this point by companies. >> yeah. i think that's well said. them in particular. and the ceo. thank you, gina. ceo rj scaringe will be on. and we'll check in with jamie dimon 1:00 p.m. tomorrow. tyler is getting ready for "power lunch." hel ckhis 'lpi tngup on the other side of this break. i'll see you then.

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♪ welcome, everybody to "power lunch" alongside kelly evans, i'm tyler mathisen. glad you could join us for a tuesday. coming up, a market tug of war. the bulls want a cut to keep the -- so the rally can keep going. the bears want a cut to prevent a recession. same goal, very different views on where we in this cycle. plus, that's the