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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  August 6, 2024 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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>> it's now down about 9% in "overtime" which is the opposite of where it started out. interesting market with these micro moves and the question what does it mean that we had so much of a fade into the close from the major averages. >> in the meantime we did finish higher this tuesday, up 1% for the s&p that's going to do it for us at "overtime." >> "fast money" starts now. joe live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of times square was "fast money." here is what is on tap. stocks bouncing back a bit. the averages all higher and of course still car from clawing back all the losses of the last few days but up. the stocks did sell off a bit into the close. could this late day fade mean more pain to come? and disney plus plus, it's going to cost you more, price hikes ahead. and a smorgasbord of results for you coming on fast and furious on the tape tonight, everything from semiconductors to casino names and more.
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we have all the names, all the trades, all the details and everything that is on the move. what you don't have tonight is melissa lee. i am brian sullivan. good to see you. we are live at studio b at the nasdaq my first time here on this side. >> let's clap. when a guy tells you it's his first time in a long time -- >> i am the tom candalaria of news anchors. >> you were john, the pitcher for the pirates -- >> he never made it. >> the candy man. >> he was of williamsport saw cutter double a. on our desk tonight tim seymour, karen fiderman, guy adami. after the last few days you all made need good news and we have t sort of. all the markets up, the dow closing up just under 300 points, the s&p 500 up about 1%. all 11 sectors in the green,
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tech and small caps are also up, but we were up more than 800 points on the dow, we ended up just under 300, the nasdaq at one point soaring up 2.5%. we ended up but not that much. today's gains not nearly enough to get back anywhere close to what you may have lost yesterday and or friday. the major indexes still firmly in the red over a five-day period. yields did go up, still lowest of the year. the fear gauge, the vix coming down, it briefly fell below 25 after soaring the last couple of sessions. guy adami, to you, are we out of the woods or was today just kind of a calm before more of the storm sets in? >> you know, the former or latter thing. i don't believe we are out of the woods, that should come as no surprise to people who watch this. thought that for a i would and correctly. if you look over the last couple
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weeks it's a blip on what has been a pretty significant selloff. if you are bullish, which i'm not, it would have been better to see this thing flush early and rally late. that's not what we saw. we saw the big move early then sort of give back some late. 5,000ish is still the 200 day moving average. i think we need to get there and i think we're going to violate it once we do. with the vix at 27 that still suggests there's some pain ahead in my opinion. >> i think we were way oversold on treasuries and the dynamic from one payroll number we were suddenly rushing into recession, again, not even like a shallow recession, we were going hard, hard landing is the dynamic that i think a little perspective on the day gives you. does not mean that the dynamic that we do expect should be happening, which is the job market which the fed is clearly targeting should be slowing. it doesn't mean that things are falling out of bed that quickly. i think the dynamics of the technical factors that happened late last week, started going into a weekend, we don't have a lot of liquidity out there and i
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think it's giving people a chance. having said that, we said this last night there were any number of five things that could have been legitimate catalysts at least part of a mosaic of things that had the market drive that vix up to a 60 handle. i think some of those things are very much still in play. it's great to see that the market has come back a little bit, i think the setup, karen talked about this and guy is mentioning it again, that monday wash into a midday tuesday after europe goes home, we usually call that turn around tuesday and it is something that actually, you know, it didn't really play out that way, but ultimately leadership -- >> it looked like it was going to. nikkei was up, circuit breakers were triggered on the way up. karen, what i'm trying to understand is friday was -- we forget that friday was a terrible day, too. >> although it rallied a little bit. it was bad. >> the three worst trading days of the year have all occurred in the last ten trading days. so july 24th, friday was terrible and then yesterday we know what happened. what changed from yesterday to
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today? >> i think that it was just overdone yesterday, but i still -- i didn't like seeing japan up that much last night. >> it made sense. >> because if you think the yen carried unwind is over which i don't think that was it, it's over, but i would much rather liked us to come to this down 500 and end up 300. that's far more bullish -- >> not be up 800 and up 300. >> i bought nothing today because i'd rather that setup be different than it was. this could all change two days from now, we're going to get payroll data, everything could change. >> yeah, i remain focused on what i think is one of the huge drivers of the markets upside right up until about a month ago and that's this generative ai trade. we know that nvidia is obviously the big leader it's down about
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25% from recent highs just about two months ago. then i start looking at other pieces this have puzzle. dell makes the servers that go in the data center. dell is down about 40% or so just in the last couple months. i think of micron in the memory that it takes to kind of do the training of these models, that was another story so you need that in addition to the gpus. that's down 40 some percent. super micro, it is down i think about 10% in the aftermarket. that's been cut in half over the last few months. amd, we could keep going here. nvidia is kind of the last man standing in this trade and i really think that that concentration under this story that also dragged google and microsoft and amazon and meta up, i think it's coming undone a little bit. i don't mean it's over, over, over. i'm saying the monetization -- this is what we learned during earnings season over the last two weeks it's just not there right now possibly to justify the capex spend. >> there was a line in a movie,
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deserving don't got nothing to do with it. >> "unforgiven." gene hackman. >> he said i'm building a house -- >> it's not "star wars." anyway, i go back to -- >> won the academy award in 1993 or '4. >> does nvidia deserve to be holding up if dell, super micro, micron, all the other ones that are halo trades are not? >> i mean, we're going to know on august 28th, right? this year it's expected earnings and revenue growth of 100%, next year it's supposed to decel to 37%. let's see. they just had this pushout of blackwell, karen and i were just talk being t maybe that's a little bit of a ruse because they're ready to guide down, maybe it's just not materializing to the extent that, you know, it's justified here. to me that's the main event. if they guide down below where
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the street expects, i think the trade is over for months. >> over for months. >> maybe quarters. >> great having you here. you're asking the right questions. >> listen, every couple -- it is, by the way, shot on our man. should have armed ourselves. there is a stock that seems to define the market, the trade, whether it's a tesla, apple or dare i say cisco systems. >> back in the day. >> whether it's an intel, we could talk about that later. today it's nvidia, not only because it's nvidia it's the biggest or one of the biggest stocks in hundreds of etfs. so if we see a breakdown, to dan's point, of an nvidia, is there any way that the macro market can hold up if nvidia does not? >> i think nvidia is one of the top 15 holdings in approximately 476 etfs or so. nvidia which probably was the big winner on this yen carry trade should theoretically be the big loser as it unwinds.
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jpmorgan today said the unwind is about half over. if you start to play it out, nvidia which won to bull a. you will of this, wins to passive investing all these different things theoretically should be on the other side this have trade. >> the one thing about this carry trade and a lot of our viewers they have heard about the carry trade, they are not sure who is doing it or even why they're doing it, but the bottom line is you're borrowing essentially in a currency that's almost free at zero str rates and you are theninvesting it. a lot of times that leverage isn't going into high growth stuff it's going into stuff that's very conservative because you're trying to pick up basis points with in a free money. it's a lodge way of saying that i actually think that a lot of this we still haven't even seen. i think there are dynamics around the carry trade. i think the nvidia trade, dan is right, you've had an opportunity to be critical, one was, on nvidia for months, the reality is that you can make an argument that nvidia which inspired this whole mega cap tech rally at a
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time when about five quarters ago we were questioning and if you look at where the nasdaq closed today it's effectively unchanged to the s&p in terms of relative terms going back to june of '23. i bring that up because you're talking about leadership, trying to understand where are we going to get it from. i think that's a real challenge for the market even though we love rotation. >> that would seem to imply, karen, that this yen carry trade which is being blamed for everything but global warming at this point, i mean, let's be clear. >> yeah. >> that people were borrowing in yen, they were buying super micro. >> bitcoin i heard. >> and bitcoin and shorting volatility, whenever something is blamed for everything pardon me for getting a little bit -- you do wonder if there's anything else at work here besides the yen carry trade. >> tim points out it could be something like buying basis points, differentials of treasuries versus yen. using the dollar to resell the
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yen to buy treasuries. i mean, i don't know. i feel like this mag 7 trade has been around actually for quite a while and actually i think it predates the nvidia -- i think it goes back to during the pandemic. so it makes sense to me that it gets overdone and people look to rotate on to something else. i had actually thought we would expand it, be broader than we are, the iwm trade i would thought would have worked more, it worked a little bit but given the underperformance over so long it really hasn't worked at all. so we forget now, though, we might be in a cutting phase by the fed. we should be. everyone expects in september that seems the most likely path for sure. that used to be positive for stocks. i think it could be again. >> we will continue this conversation because if you're trying to figure out where the macro economy is going or maybe what the fed is going to do you want to look at the banks. banks know a lot about things, loan demand, credit availability and few companies know as much about banks as kbw.
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a 62-year-old investment bank focused on financials. tommy show is the ceo of kbw. great to have you on. an important conversation. >> yes. >> everybody is going to be waiting for this fed easing cycle, but it looks like the bond market has kind of already done the job of the fed for it. >> yes. well, the first thing is i would watch the yield curve and the shape of the yield curve. we're watching it very carefully for the banks. this past week we had the twos, tens stop being inverted for a short period of time, the longest period of time in 47 years that that yield curve had been inverted. the one that matters most for the banks still a little inverted that's the three month five year that's the longest inversion in close to 70 years. >> wow. i sorry, what does that mean in plain language? whenever i hear the first time in 70 years you got my attention. >> here is what it is is the biggest component of bank earnings is net interest income which they earn on the spread.
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when the yield curve is inverted, assume these banks are operating with a big headwind blowing at them. it's a hard market when that happens. when you get a more -- when you get a flatter or a regular-shaped yield curve that means banks can, you know, can borrow short and lend a little longer and take advantage of that duration. so banks have been operating in a very hostile environment. if you were to say to me in general what's a tough environment for banks? i'd say inverted yield curve after interest rates just went up a lot. that's just what happened. they are actually about to catch a break. we believe that the low quarter fournette interest income the biggest component of bank revenue and earnings was in the second quarter that just passed. now it's going to start getting better and it's going to get better slowly but it's going to get better. >> this asset class, though, has had an enormous run, it's as if the market has anticipated this but there is a lot of different things that have been triggers for banks.
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a lot is less regulatory pressure, dynamics around this, there's certainly -- we're well past the svb headaches of 15 months ago. is it a credit story that i think people have a lot more confidence in banks? because it seems that the one brain cell is commercial real estate, gets a little bit more of a lifeline where the fed is easing back off, but either way the presumption was there was a lot of credit risk out there for banks and we are just not getting it. >> the credit story has been far better than everybody expected and everybody has been waiting for a shoe to drop. the shoe hasn't dropped. not only is credit not getting away from the industry, credit is still better than average right now. we have not seen -- we haven't even gotten back to normal. we are still better than normal. last week we had 100 banks in new york for a conference, we followed all the bank earnings in the second quarter. they as a group said nothing that makes you think we're going to get a harder landing. as far as we see from our lens, soft landing still seems to be what's going to happen. >> but what happened friday and
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yesterday, then? you know, i know some of your traders. what are they saying to you about what the heck -- >> well, i was listening to your conversation. there's a delinkage between macro forces and it scares everybody, but the reality is it didn't affect the real economy yet in the united states. i mean, there is a story of a slowing economy. that's what the fed is trying to do, and they will eventually win because the fed usually does. so the economy is slowing, but we're nowhere near crisis in my opinion, which means i would buy these stocks on a dip would be my -- the high quality ones. >> tommy michaud the ceo of kbw. >> if you have a little longer we will take the long name. >> steeple company. >> we are. >> take some comfort from that, guy adami. >> if you look at their stock it's done extraordinarily well under a lot of different leaderships, tom being one of them.
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with that said, i mean, look at the recent move in bank of america, for example. it's just about interest rates how do you explain the move from $44 down to $34 we've seen -- >> warren buffett. >> thank you. why is warren buffett -- you could say he's paring down his position, he owns a lot of it, but he obviously sees something as well. i understand what tom is saying, i understand what warren buffett sees as well. i think banks have been rewarded over the last couple months probably in anticipation of what i don't think is about to come. >> all right. good discussion there. a little optimism maybe from tom saying we don't see the hard landing at all. all right. on deck forget taco tuesday, we have got a buffet, not a buffett, a buffet of earnings rolling out, the names and moves ahead. crypto up again today. a lot more to do. you're watching "fast money."
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action at airbnb. maybe air dnd at this rate. >> whatever it is, brian, it is another data point in the travel and leisure slowdown. it is really that weak third quarter outlook that is hitting shares hard in the after hours. the ceo attributing it on the earnings call to shorter booking lead times globally and signs of slowing demand from u.s. guests which he said has shown up more recently and in july in particular he says the growth of shorter lead times was, quote, very strong. now, despite signs of macro weakness airbnb is in growth mode he says hiring and spending more on advertising, something they say will help them expand beyond its core. a lot of questions on how they're going to do it. he compared airbnb to apple and amazon that began selling only imax and books. he said airbnb is ready to go beyond short-term rentals and into products and services starting next year. that growth push i will note is weighing on margins and finally, brian, it would not be an
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earnings call without mention of ai. here chesky was measured as he typically s he said an actual gen ai interface change is going to take time, a number of years according to him and most of his tech friends of which, brian, he has many, back to you. >> i don't know what ai will do for a company whose problems, i think, are people get annoyed by the fees. this is another one of these trades, tim, where you're going to have the bears that will look at airbnb and say, see, the economy is slowing down, airbnb said so and others will say, no, they are a unique company where people are going back to hotels because of annoyances. >> the whole travel space has run into a lot of headwinds, run into it from margin-specific dynamics and we talk about this in a lot of different places where there's discretionary spending, they can't pass prices on the way they could as well. the macro for airbnb is the bigger story, expedia and vrbo has been a major headwind. they have been under pressure
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for much of thisear. i think there's actually a trade, i think there is a trade in the airlines i think after a 35% pull back, with he saw royal caribbean today. i think selectively you can't just sell out this whole sector, a sector which frankly i think most of the year has been under this macro pressure. >> it's interesting if you look at their earnings in 2023 and this is the post covid sort of thing, people couldn't get out there and do the thing and it earned $8.36. that was up considerably from 2022. they are expected to drop earnings 40% despite sales being up 13%. so you're talking about margins, talking about this spend and that's not what investors want to see in this environment right now. they're shooting first, asking questions later. if you guide down for the existing quarter or the current quarter and then you guide the year down, which i think they're doing right now, there's just really no place to buy this thing at this moment, especially season alley after you get by the summer season. >> all right. let's move on. kind of in a related story we have another earnings alert. this is wynn resorts, massive
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casino and hotel company. higher despite also missing on the top and bottom lines. steve kovac has the numbers on wynn. >> this one is a head scratcher because, like you said, wynn shares are up after hours, despite pretty significant misses on the top and bottom lines on the second quarter earnings report. the results here first eps $1.12 adjusted versus $1.14 estimated and of revenue a slight miss, $1.73 billion versus $1.75 billion estimated. adjusted ebitda missed expectations at $372 million compared to expectations of $576 million. vegas revenue did beat expectations at 6$629 million bt macau disappointed. when macau brought in $337 million. shares were initially about 2%
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lower so when these earnings first crossed but popped when the call started it's up 3% now. we will keep monitoring and seeing what's going on. we are not seeing any commentary on the call that really shows what's causing this surge here, brian. >> all right. steve, thank you very much. karen, maybe it's the fact that this was a $222 stock ten years ago, this was $118 stock a couple years ago. it's a $78 stock. i mean, the china story has never rematerialized. >> no, i mean, these china numbers, the macau numbers are looking like a giant miss. i'm kind of surprised. i don't know what they said on the call, i always think it's really important to listen to the call, you get a lot of nuance and additional information that maybe isn't out in the earnings. i don't get why it's up, actually. >> well, just the guidance or at least the street the eps was somewhere between 55 cents and $1.46, you could drive a truck through that. i think it comes down to what you just said, the stock has had a significant down draft not only for the last couple years,
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since april i think it was $105 stock, number one, number two, wasn't a disaster and you could look at this and say, wait a second, the valuation is too cheap here. actually in the context of all of that to me it does make a little bit of sense, i think you stay with it on the long side. >> do we worry about this is just another sign. >> no. >> no? >> again, sentiment was so washed out. i don't think people are suddenly surprised by this. the burden has been on them to prove that actually there really is demand. china is such a big part of this story, ggr coming out of macaw has been disappointing. i even own melco i've been averaging down, it's been a bad trade. i think you're going to see a return here. china is reopening, it's been so disconnected and so uncyclically tied to the rest of the world. i think that all the casino and lbs i still own as well, the valuations are down two-thirds on a multiple from where they were. they're cheap. >> i know what gnr, guns and
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roses. ggr. >> gross gaming revenue. you are the international guy. >> welcome to the jungle, buddy. >> this is definitely not paradise city. it hasn't been for investors for a long time. is anything or most things around china uninn vesable without more clarity on the economy. >> it was interesting to look yesterday at how some of china was trading in the middle of a bloodbath. china has had its bloodbath. the story around investing in alibaba is not about a multiple and not about e-commerce revenue. it's about dynamics around china and corporate governance and that's a case where i think in wynn and lvs where you have a lot of asia exposure i think you're pretty protected to the down side. >> before you throw to commercial, gnr one of the most overrated bands in the history of mankind. 900 songs spotify play list i have one guns and roses song, "november rain." which might be fitting given what's going on. although i did like slash's hat.
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>> i would agree with you, by the way, i would say that l.a. guns -- >> the battle of sweet jane. >> there you go. >> where are you getting that, folks? >> they just all tuned out all right. up next the breaking numbers and trades on super micro, ryvian and more. and get ready to pay more for "the bear" and "star wars" as disney proves inflation is still a thing. you're watching "fast money" we hope. [music “this little light of mine”] in the world's poorest places, children with cleft conditions live in darkness and shame. they're shunned, outcast, living in pain. you can reach out and change the life of a suffering child right now. a surgery that take as little as forty five minutes and your act of love can change a child's life forever. please call, scan or go online to give a new smile.
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all right. welcome back. if you are just catching up with the markets today, maybe you were scared off by friday and yesterday, we wouldn't blame you, you can open up your eyes. some goodish news. the averages all higher, though they did not close on their highs, but they did end in the green. a bunch of stocks moving right now on news the last hour we hit a few of them for you, here are more. trip advisor, speaking of the consumer, trip advisor down 12% after a revenue miss. instacart, though, too lazy to go to the store yourself, a lot of people are apparently, stock is up 8.5%. right now top and bottom line beat. reddit on the move after also
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posting a beat on earnings and revenues, not just that crypto by the way, bitcoin got crushed last few days. crypto seeing a come back, bitcoin bouncing back 56,385 right now. plummeting with the rest of the market over the last couple of days. and then there's this, disney, that stock up today about 2.5% because -- well, the market rose but also you're going to be paying more. they're raising prices, 2 bucks more for the majority of their streaming options per month and $1 more per month for hulu, disney reported earnings before the bell tomorrow. karen, another price increase, but the market likes it. >> the market likes t i mean, obviously you weigh the price increase versus what kind of churn might you have. if you look at netflix the price indexes and the ad supported tiers have all worked really well. obviously that's margin that's right to the bottom line so i can see why they would like it.
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i think dice knsney has had a terrible run but it absolutely makes sense that it's up. >> trader favorite or maybe we should say to dan's point at the top of the show former trader favorite and that is s micro computer. it has been a brutal couple weeks for investors, stock lost half its value but super micro's numbers are out. at first people seemed to like it, now the stock is down and seema mody, they are doing a 10 for 1 split. i know you've been dipping in and out of the call here. can you give us more color on smci? >> brian, the stock is reversing course, super micro's ceo says it's fourth quarter operating margin of 7.8% is lower than what he had expected due to the higher mix of hyper scale data center business, costs tied to its liquid cooling equipment. the ceo also mentioned shipments constrained due to supply chain
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bottlenecks. super micro is still increasing its full year guidance which came in well above consensus. it issued the 10 for 1 stock split. hopes that super micro which competes with dell and hewlett-packard would play a bigger role in packaging nvidia's chips. while the stock did get caught up in the most recent selloff shares are up 94% in year. goldman sachs is neutral citing risks including competition from dell and hpe both have been growing their share in the ai supermarket, brian. >> one that's going to get a lot of attention tonight and tomorrow. thank you very much. dan, falls exactly into what you were talking about at the top. >> gross margin 11.3% down year over year from 17%. if you look at dell they have doubled the gross margin that super micro has at 22%, hewlett is also up near there. again, they might be able to raise guidance but they are
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making much less per server than some of their big competition. so to me i also think that, you know, that guidance might be suspect. >> quickly follow-up on that hpe, down a little bit. dell was down a little bit, but that's interesting because it sounds like what you're saying and if you're not saying that's not what i'm saying, which is if you don't like smci but you believe in the ai story you should mayber a buyer of dell and hpe and seller of super micro. >> why do these companies have margins the way they do? it is to commoditize product. there is going to be a supplying demand because there's overcapacity coming in the next few quarters. they will have to compete on price. if they are the low cost provider -- i don't know, i think the jig is up. >> ai is the new coal. huh? >> coal. >> corn, coffee, cocoa, commodity. >> i know i'm familiar -- >> there are others that don't start with the letter c but i like alliteration. >> you do and you're good at it. if we were doing a split
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screen -- listen, quarter was not good. operating margins 7.8%, the street was looking for close to 11%. this should be the time when margins are -- in my opinion -- improving. and the guide, say what you want, you could drive a truck through the guide as well. the 10 for 1 split was what got everyone excited. the stock is going to split apparently on its own, brian. >> this is a company i don't think anybody really ever heard of before about a year ago. i'm sure people in the ai space had and suddenly it became the hottest hot stock, we use water and cool things better and therefore they're going to be the winner. karen, they've lost half their value in, what, dan, three weeks. half. people have gotten crushed on this stock. >> you could say shouldn't have been where it was so that was wrong, too. >> something going on behind you, brian? are you okay? >> what happened? >> you keep looking over your shoulder like you're concerned -- >> we are the only people here. what are you worried about? >> i'm not worried about
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anything. >> is there a metaphor? >> wow. they just put the music on. >> i literally turn around to see if it's raining and then all of a sudden i'm like -- >> i was concerned. i was concerned. >> i can't wait to get out of here. how much longer on this show? >> 25 more minutes. >> oh, my god. four and a half hour long "fast money." coming up, even more things to come. we have rivian, their numbers are out, they're mitigating some of their losses per vehicle. we will get the trade. stock is down right now but a lot more on rivian and see if it's raining after thisht mmci bak.s or at tractor supply customers experience is personalized service. made possible by t-mobile for business. with t-mobile's reliable 5g business internet. employees get the information they need instantly. this is how business goes further with t-mobile for business.
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welcomeback to "fast money." the vix pulling back today after hitting its highest level since april of 2020 on monday almost hit 100, but your next guest says volatility is a big risk across nearly every asset class. cebo head of derivatives, joining us now. can you first explain, mandy, why did we go from a 16 vix to an 86 vix because the job market
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missed and there's some carry trade problems. >> yeah, so i would separate what we saw on friday versus what we saw on monday, i think there's two distinct stories going on. friday clearly was a macro fundamental driven move on the market based on a weak u.s. payroll. maybe the recession trade was overdone, but what we saw monday i would say was completely divorced from fundamentals, it was pure positioning. you can tell because on friday the spike in volatility we saw we saw in u.s. markets n european markets across regions. the price action we saw monday was primarily japan and u.s. tech. so the most crowded names. >> i know we call it the fear gauge. >> yes. >> but it's really a measure of options movement, right? >> correct. >> and sprids and things like that. but yet if there's -- we have a lot of stuff going on with iran, it's a very scary time in the middle east. that's what i think of the vix as being. can you dig more into why did the price and market action
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cause the, quote, unquote, fear gauge to rise like that? >> sure. part of it is in the fact nat underlying s&p index started moving a lot, pre open and on monday -- >> blew out options spreads? >> so going forward there's expectation that the volatility could persist. so the forward looking option pricing is embedding more volatility but on top of that the vix also measures relative demands for puts versus calls and what we saw over the past two days is a significant increase in hedging demand and put demand and that left tail which traders for the past year have neglected, everyone has been focused on the upside of the market that left tail coming back into play explains a big part in the rise in the vix. >> a lot of people have embraced this sell volunteering ilt trade, you get paid to sell vol, the market never goes down, they earn a premium, they're fine. that has a life span. to a certain extent we saw the flip side of what could happen
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when you're short val tilt over the past few days. >> when people talk about sell short vol trades they're talking about option income trades, people who are selling call options for income for their portfolio. that is not a short vol trade, that's an income generating trade and i say that because those trades there's no embedded leverage. >> true. >> monday was all about a deleveraging event a positioning washout for people. if you were just an investor who sold a call on top of a stock that you owned or your equity portfolio you did great. you didn't do great on the equity portion but collected that premium. the option portion is not what was using your money. i would differentiate that. that's the growth we have seen in the options market is on that, it's more conservative strategies that are not levered. i don't think in my opinion that was not what the catalyst or the center of the storm. >> so you talk about the skew towards puts changing can you give us some context where that is now and where it was at the low and where you think it might
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go also. >> sure. i would say the theme over the past two years in the lead up to this past week has been incredibly low skew in the options market particularly for s&p index options meaning into demand for puts and everyone is chasing the upside. that's something we have highlighted for a while. now that's reversed sharply to levels basically we haven't seen since covid. i think that's a function of people waking up and realizing, a, recession is back, recession fear is back, but also just this unknown, unknown about how -- like what positioning unwind is left in the market, how much unwind -- >> how much do you think, mandy? >> i can tell you again -- what i can tell you if you look at the fx market, volatility for dollar yen it has not come down much as well. the vix retraced quite a business of its move from monday, not in the fx market. people are pricing in continued volatility going forward which would suggest potentially we could see more -- >> karen, you said at the top of the show, took years to build
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this yen carry trade it won't be over in a day. >> more mondays to come. >> that's where we're seeing divergence. >> mandy -- are we wrapping on mandy? >> there's so much we could talk to mandy about. there are probably limitations. you are the boss. >> i'm not the boss, the voice in my ear is saying wrap, wrap, wrap, wrap. >> one of my favorite barry manilow songs, now. >> "mandy." >> i have about five or six on my play -- >> i bet you do. do you know what also wasn't built on a day? >> rome. >> we have people here from rome. mandy, thank you for joining us on options action. appreciate it. coming up, the earnings keep rolling in. rivian on the move reporting their numbers. we are going to get the per card data on rivian next.
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all right. we have got another i would say earnings alert but there is no earnings in the numbers. the results on rivian, rivian stock -- you got that, guy -- rivian stock down 4%. ev maker reporting a smaller loss but a loss and did beat revenue estimates. phil lebeau had an interview with the ceo in the last hour and is going to join us to wrap it up.
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you highlighted in the interview that the losses per vehicle they are narrowing. >> they are. and we will talk about that in just a little bit, brian. we are 45 minutes into the conference call. basically why this stock is under pressure, analysts want to know two things, more details about the joint venn ur with volkswagen and they also want to know about whether or not rivian can truly get to growth profit, positive gross profit in the fourth quarter. the loss smaller than expected, a buck 13 compared to the street expecting a loss of a buck 21, revenue slightly better than expected. there are the numbers within the numbers in the second quarter. it's still a company that is losing ate lot of money per vehicle, $32,705, a little bit better than previously quarters, but it's still a lot of money that they're losing. adjusted ebitda loss of $860 million. free cash zero negative $1.03 billion. r jj scaringe said he believes e
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second quarter into the third quarter is an inflection point for the company. >> we had an inefficient quarter as we made significant changes to the vehicle, took down our manufacturing line, made big improvements in efficiency and so we're going to start to see cleaner performance in terms of the new building material structure and of course the new operating structure where the plant is not running a at 30% -- as a 30% higher line rate than what we had previous to the shutdown. >> as you look at rivian's annual deliveries, keep in mind that the company did reaffirm its guidance of producing 57,000 vehicles this year, though production is increasing as rj scaringe told us. shares of rivian adjusted ebitda loss guidance $2.7 billion. brian, listening to the call it's very clear analysts while they are encouraged about certain things that they're seeing at rivian, they really want to know the details of this joint venture with volkswagen and that really is not going to
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come until the fourth quarter. they said that during the qualls today. that's when that will be finalized and we will get more details in terms of the implication force rivian. >> phil lebeau, thank you. >> dan? >> they have a lot of cash here. obviously they're burning it very quickly but they also have good partners in amazon that own 16% of the company. this thing is not going out of business. >> do you worry -- there used to be a long wait for a consider. >> they're great cars, by the way. >> are they? >> have you seen one? >> i own one. >> did you see the junk that tesla is putting out. >> it's a beautiful --? >> you have a rivian. >> i used to. >> was it a nice color? >> it was green on green. it was gorgeous, r 1 s. i never talked about it. >> why did it did g.? >> someone offered me a pile of money for it. >> so you didn't like it that much. >> i loved the car. that's why i bought -- people that got -- first people in --
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>> do you typically buy green cars? green on green, is that your color? >> dan went to see green last night. >> it was excellent. >> walking contradiction. >> smashing pumpkins. >> there we go. two fast movers for today's session, the early morning results or the early morning results had these stocks jumping. we will talk about the names and how you should trade them coming up. it's time to grow your business. create a website. how? godaddy. coding... nah. but all that writing... nope. ai, done, built. let's get to work. create a beautiful website in minutes with godaddy. what is cirkul? cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. cirkul is the
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all right. welcome back to "fast money." a couple stocks topping the tape today after solid earnings this morning. let us start with uber. shares jumping over 10% uber up nearly 11%. company beating on the top and bottom lines post ago 23% increase in gross bookings. it was the stock's best day since february, but only gets the stock back to where they were on thursday. so better uber, scott might be riding uber, it's gotten a lot more expensive to jump in those cars. >> you should look at tim -- oh, wait, no, you don't have a u -- >> it's an l. >> lyft. blicep. >> if i remove lyft and put in
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uber. the story for lyft is different than uber. uber has been the super app, dynamic around where they've certainly had market share, they've dominated. again, i think this gets back to margins. these guys are not able to pass on the same pricing even though they have tried. i would be a seller of that pop. >> seller that have pop. shares of marathon petroleum energized by a top and bottom line beat. higher crude oil processing volumes, strong midstream offsetting lower margins in refining. in fact, guy, marathon petroleum mpc not mro, there are two marathons, it can be confusing, had a very good day. >> i thought so. i still think relative to valuation of the broader market it's extraordinarily cheap, sold off significantly, brownsed today, mro being acquired. marathon petroleum more levered kind. if you still believe in the story which i do regardless of commodity price it's been fluctuating i think you stay with mpc. >> they are printing free cash
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final trade. tim, kick it off. >> brian, it was special today, having you. altria. >> is it almost over already? okay. my final trade uber. i liked the call, i liked the earnings, one thing i didn't love is how much it went up but i do like uber >> dan. >> you are a very special guy.
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i think you stay defensive, xlb consumer. >> what karen just said is not something you want to hear, is it over? your buddy owns wynn, i think you stay with it here. >> theoretically i'm supposed to be back tomorrow, but we'll see. if i'mot n here, just let >> reporter: my mission is simple, to make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always more. i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hello, i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. welcome to cramer america. i am trying to make you a little money. my job is to teach you. you can call 1-807-43-cnbc or tweet me at @madmoneyon

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