targets. >> it's getting decked. robinhood is still struggling. stock down around 16% in a week. there you see it. >> should be taking advantage. timely, shopify in the green today, seeing better earnings, upbeat guidance, strong service demand. all right. thanks for watching "power lunch." >> could be a turbulent time into the close. "closing bell" starts right now. guys, thanks so much. i'm scott wapner live from post 9. this begins with the markets feeling awfully fragile, lately. the big question, whether the worst is behind us or not. we'll ask our experts or the final stretch as the majors try to bounce back. the scorecard, with 60 minute to say go in regulation looks different now, does president it, from where it was earlier today. what was green is now red again.

there's some strandouts. shopify and vf corp, they're surging. how about micron, resuming its buyback as well. the chip trader was higher as well. it's roll over. disney has been lower today because of the theme park numbers. stock about the lows of the session. that's almost a 3.5 decline. and watching jpmorgan shares, jamie dimon speaking to us exclusively today. we'll have the highlights in just a bit. and like many of the financial stocks, doing quite well of late. the road ahead for your money as the markets make their way through this turbulent week. anastacia amarosa, welcome back. >> thank you. scott, i think this is such a low conviction market.

we don't seem to have conviction as a market in the economy, and we've got initial jobless claims coming up tomorrow. i feel like people are waiting for that with bated breath. it feels like the recession fears were on, but maybe they're back again. that's why we're likely to chop around as we try to sort out the data. when you have drops like we have seen in monday, you look to technicals. this is a very thin liquidity market. you look at the market depth as something like 63% below the last 23-day average. i've got uncertainly, back seaso seasonality. the s.a.m. is trading at 5215, which is below the three-metropolitan average. none of that is good. >> some suggested this was mostly positioning. we have the under why of the carry trade. that was monday's conversation. it's sort of mixed in with the concerns about the economy. >> yeah.

>> which is so interesting. last week, as the fed chair spoke on wednesday, he sounded pretty sanguine about whether the labor market was, just normalizing, then we have the jobs report, and everything had a panic attack over where the economy truly is. >> it was the payrolls on top of the som rule. scott, going into july when we were talking about the potential disconnect between the economy and the market expectations, the economy data has been surprising to the down side for quite some time. labor market was surprising, yet the markets had to catch up, so i would argue some of the unwind has been -- but now we have a catalyst watching the payrolls data. the reason why they pay so much to payrolls, that's where the fed chair essentially created a yardstick, the labor market and what they will do after that.

>> there's a feel, at least in some corners of wales saying, you know, it's not the start of a new trend. this could just be one report. don't take the eye off the overall market ball. don't step in with two feet, as you said, maybe the unsettling feeling has more room to go, but you look at the market, say there's opportunity to be had? or do you let things settle? >> first of all, i talk about the lowies of the market, but our conviction is we're not headed for a recession. i'm still in the soft landing camp. i don't think the data is actually recessionary. one of the data point was the one on monday where the ism services number, the employment, actually increased that suggested that the miss we have seen was a one off. we know migration continued into

it, and then, of course, you look at the atlanta fed, so i'm still in the soft landing camp. that brings me to the second point, i do think there's opportunities to be had in the market. i don't think it's a quick snap back, but i think you start to step in and buy certainly pockets of the market. >> but you're looking kind of defensive, right? utilities, munis? >> that's part of it. i think tony talk about it in his note, looking in both direction. i think that's exactly what i'm doing as well. i'm looking to defensives like utilities. if this economy is slowing, if it's slowing, you want to look to defensive sectors. if the fed is cutting interest rates that actually outperformed, so that's why that has to be part of the barbell, but scott, i've been tempted

this wee by semiconductors valuations are not quite to the lows of the last year, but getting pretty close. >> that was adam parkers's point yesterday sitting on this set. let ace bring in chris hyze and ryan dietrich. good to have you both here, too. you want to weigh in, chris, on what you have seen and what you think it means for what we should do? >> i'm a big believer, you write down thoughts like we've had in the last week, two weeks, at the end of the week, you write them down, revisit them a year, two years later s. three years later. and at the time it's very concerns. 1998 brings to mind for me, and you have to look at the catalyst, and ultimately what really matters to product of profits and production of catch

flows. it's been dented, but if it hasn't changed, these are buying opportunities. is that your calling? >> it hasn't changed. there's talk of soft landing, hard landing and other things, something called the mid cycle slowdown, a better term you talked about before, normalizing. we are coming off extraordinary spending times, coming down at a time when you unemployment and employment markets are not materially changing. that is critical. the products of profits by corporate america slowing down, harder to increase margins, but you can still protect them. this gives portfolio managers an opportunity not to just rebalance, we can talk about rotation. before rotation, there's rebalancing. it's a cake stick-driven market. you have to look for things to get you through the normalizing

period. >> yesterday felt better, this morning there was follow-through, and here we roll as we begin the program. >> it's nice to talk to you face-to-face like this, not in my basement. let's take a big-picture look. this is an election year. the best start to an election year since 1976, up 19%, not that long ago. now we've had the 8.5% pullback. mike and i were talking about this. it's august. you always get these curveballs out of the view. the china devaluation of the yuan. productivity in our country is still really strong. second quarter had a big jump. that is the magic elixir. we have not seen that strong product since mid '90s, and overjaws the u.s. dollar. it's not been a safe haven the

last week oar so, and historically when trouble happens, gold down, stocks down, dollar is the only thing higher. we have seen that, right? and we have emerging market currencies have been really strong whitely. that's not a major risk-off end of the world cries in our opinion. >> chris mentioned the rotation word. you like sicily cals, small and mid caps, which i fund interesting in the context of the conversation we're having. i spoke with rick reider amid st. this, youi want you to list to what he told me. >> i don't really understand. the whole idea is easing, so you go into small caps or into value. i'm not sure i understand that. the fed is moving from a very restrictive -- they're moves from a very restrictive level s.

this whole idea i have to imbue into asset classes that are if the economy slows will be harder in terms of -- from a performance perspective. that doesn't make sense to me. >> why does it make sense to you? >> this is a growth scare. look at the leadership this last couple days. today it's financials and industrials again. there's relatively strength there. we looked at what 3m had to cede, and ace everything is going, yes, small caps are cheap. our largest overweight has been mid cap. they're quietly doing really well. we're comfortable being very overweight mid cap with an economy not going into recession. >> but to his point, reider's point, whether it's a slowdown in a cycle, it's still a slowdown. those sectors might be

challenged by the mere notion that the fed is cutting into a slowing economy. >> the question is, they might be. >> well, a slowing economy. it's just to the degree it is. >> absolutely. how many people hated small caps all year. we've seen everyone loved technology. it doesn't mean-to rip roar higher. i know lucy with the football and charlie brown a couple times, but that cut is still coming. >> i think you have to look for very specific beneficiaries of rate cuts, even if the economy is slowing in the margin. the sector i'm look to get is real estate. 3wir7, most people don't talk about it still, but real estate prices, commercial real estate prices actually popped.

year over year, they're just about flat. there's already been a price recovery there, but also what people worried about in commercial real estate is the amount of floating rate leverage outstanding, but if you look at the sofa rate, for example, which a -- that rate has already been adjusting as we've been pricing in a more dovish fed. i would argue some of those real estate operators and developer are feeling the benefit of that. people worried about commercial real estate exposure on regional banks, but we think they're appropriately provisioned, and they're actually talking about the nest interest margins starting to improve as well. that's a very -- >> you want to weigh? >> what drove a good portion of the last growth in the economy was the fiscal spend the acts.

prior to that was the emergency outlays. the next cycle will be the benefit from lower rates, particularly in the areas that need relief. to anastacia's point, you don't need to see a reaccelerating economy. you need relief in the areas that did not participate. therefore, it does make sense to look and combined with the large-cap growth arena, small caps, particularly those characteristics of small caps that will benefit from the lower rate structure. >> before megacaps started pulling back, ryan, but look at those saying they're getting a little crazy, ahead of themselves? did they look too expensive then? a lot of them have come in now over the last month. i read this on "halftime report", i'll do it nvidia is

22 1/2. meta is 21.5. >> apple was 32, today 29, amazon 38, now 31. alpha bit 19.5 now. microsoft 35, now 30. were they too expensive before? are they still expensive now? >>. >> we thought they were too expensive before. now there's probably some better deals. the mag 7s still had explosive growth. the bottom line is too many got on that ship, and it goes the other way. >> do you want to buy the stocks? >> maybe not the mag 7. yes, there was a huge earnings surprise relative to expectation, but that surprise has been shrinking, to ryan's point, the expectations have been elevated. as i look going forward, cloud cap, or ai cap ex is growing seismic here 24% year over year,

which means these companies are outlaying cash, but as we have seen in this reporting season, are they really monetizing it, really seeing the r.o.i.? >> some. >> some, but not all. so i would rather focus is what they're investing in. so, that's why i'm looking to ai semis, and i'm seeing the pull democrat back in valuation, but at the same time, scott, if you look at the earnings revisions, they're still going up. for this year, next year, and the year after that, it's not universal across the space, but specifically for ai. i would decouple that, i would invest in the enablers. >> do you agree, chris? >> i think price momentum, earnings momentum and news momentum is still there. semiconductor, because they're inherently cyclical, they look cheaper -- or the movement down is cheaper more than just the

megacaps, but we are now going to say we start to see the area of the revenue generators, we need to see that, but to for most, the benefits are just bror beginning and well ahead of cost efficiencies. that's critical for the rest of corporate america. >> but you said the price momentum is still there. >> yeah. >> you make the argument that that's exactly the opposite, over the last month, where nvidia is down 20%, microsoft is down 14, and meta is down almost 9, amazon down almost 19, alphabet down 15, tesla down 22, isn't the momentum in that trade gone for right now? >> maybe for the next few days, maybe for the next week or two, but between now and the end of the year, you still need the mega caps in your portfolio on a

growth basis. as ryan said, you still have the earnings momentum. on a relative basis, it's not coming down versus the others, and you bookend with the areas that did not participate. i think it's a rebalancing, not a rotation. >> how do you see that? >> it makes sense. we talked 17 minutes, but if i can talk about the vix, we saw it go down ten points yesterday. that's a huge implosion. that usually says the worst is over. >> that's never happened in history. >> is that supposed to make me feel better? >> hopefully it makes you feel better. we had a blast of volatility.

to say that we are pretty close to a tactical low, we think it's a lot of sense when you see things like that. >> i think it's. >> we're talking about the here and now, maybe for the next couple weeks or months, but if you look at the bigger picture, we're going to the election cycle, markets typically consolidate and pull back in the three months after the first rate cut. that's why we're experiencing this phase. if you look back at the six months after, markets do tend to rally, so i think the playbook now, takes advantage of the volatility, step into the names like semiconductors, make some mag 7, but with a one year-plus time horizon. >> i'm surprised ryan, you think this could be less volatility as we come closer to an election

that might be closer with the change of ticket and some of the recent polling. between now and election day is an eternal in these types of cycles, obviously. nonetheless, isn't it likely volatility will be picking up? >> there would be some days that are. your average year sees six of them. i think it's important to remember there are bad days, volatility, even if the best years. so it build on, yes, 2020, obviously some weakness before, and 2016 was a slow-and-steady weakness and then we exploded afterwards. the volume activity we have just seen, i think that's the blast -- trying to carve out that major low. we're going to watch the markets over the last 40 minutes or so. great talking with you guys,

ryan, great to see you in person, and same with you, anastacia and -- the cybersecurity company reported a strong report as well as upbeat guidance. maybe it's a sign that businesses are willing to pay more for cybersecurity. lyft posted softer than expected third quarter guidance, which overshadowed their strong q2 results, revenue ranging between 90 and 95 million, while analysts expected 103 million. those shares are now on track for the worth day since may of 2023. scott? >> pippa, thank you. we'll talk in a bit. up next, jamie dimon speaking earlier on this

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might be a chairman, but i have a while to go before i'm out of the company. that was jamie dimon earlier today weighing in on the succession plan at jpmorgan. leslie picker joined him, and

now we have mike mayo. good to have you back. >> thanks for having me. >> 68 years old? >> yeah, 2 1/2 years or so left on his contract. >> are you thinking about it your will have, succession at jpm? >> i would say a lot of the institutional investors i talk to ask me about succession. >> they do? >> absolutely they do. especially with the recent op ed on "the washington post," and his ceo letter, talking about america, the comments in the press, would they go into government service. on that exclusive cnbc interview you guys had today, he was asked not once but twice, would he consider government service. he says, i like what i do. >> he said it like three, four times. he didn't give an answer. he didn't say no, so that kernel

sums to the fore. nothing scientist, a straw poll, but how much would the stock go down if he would leave? >> what do you think about that? >> i would think 5%, that would make him the $25 billion man. what about the financial sector in the here and now? we have rates to take into considering, worries about the economy as well. how do you see that? >> look, the main course for banks is still good over multiple years. you're looking at a multi-year inflection point for revenues, earnings, sometimes later this year. having said that, no dessert for bank investors in the month of august, maybe a bit longer. that dessert has been taken away. there's new data points. the unemployment rate went up a big more. interest rates are a lot lower than people expected. the "r" word has come back,

recession, so you have to recalibrate. those extra spread revenues from higher interest rates and what's called fixed-asset repricing, you may not get that. the extra reserve releases, forget about that right now. you're still reflecting, but you have to readjustment. it's a speed bump, and a little bit more short-term caution. >> what are your expectations about capital markets? david solomon, goldman sachs was pretty positive on it when he last spoke. rich handleder are jeffries put out what i thought was one of the most bullitious states, if not the most bullish that i have seen. >> there are tremendous multi-year tailwinds for capital markets, especially the x factor the private equity trades, a dallas to get put to work.

a hiccup in the market could put a monkey wrench in the market briefly. are there any accidents in the market given issue volatility in recent days. so far i don't see any. >> nor does jamie dimon, by the way, who was asked by less by about whether there's a recession or not. first thing he went to was credit, set it's fine. obviously things could get worse at some point. and the credit wards would expect they're backing that up. >> the one data point is corporate bond spend relative to treasuries are still close, still 100 base points out. back in 1998, they were double that. the largest bank/bond spreads

are still close to -- >> so it's kind of giving a yawn, and the equity market is freaking out. it's the op sid of the global sphinx crisis. financial crisis. all of my colleagues were slow to the message. in this case the fixed-income market is kind of saying ho-hum. >> there a message in this week that jpmorgan is green on the week, given the turbulence. goldman sachs is positive on the why. citi is down 4.3%. why? >> this is simply a pavlov's dog. you bell rings, you salivate. you have a hiccup in the market, who is likely to win? who is likely to lose? i think that's a knee-jerk reaction. i don't think that has any bearing -- it has some bearing

to reality, but i wouldn't read too much into that. by the way, citigroup navigates yet one more industry issue like this, that could help their revaluation. that's my number one pick with a caveat of short term we have a bit more caution about the whole group. i think there's an issue with lower rates. be careful what you wish for. everyone said, let's get lower rates, so with the fed cuts, you get a rally, but the net interest margin will go higher for the banks, but probably not as high as you thought before. if you're reinvestments the securing maturities 70 basis points lower than a metropolitan ago, the inflection is not as great as it was before. >> great. nice to have you here, thanks.

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all right. we're in the red today, giving up earlier gains, all three major indices struggling to recover from monday's sell-off. a few bright spots, though

within tech. apple is leading the pack. amazon and alphabet are also still green. my next guest says now it's time to buy the dip, too. good to see you back here. your phone must have been going crazy on monday. we said you're one of top five advisers ranked by barron's. what's this week been like? >> my first experience with eye-popping decline was back in '87, and we've seen many since then. we've developed a playbook to deal with all of this and guard client capital. the catalyst here was a disproportionate decline in the market relative to the tepid economic data, so likely caused we're at 22, 23 times earnings. really it's a type of volatility we're going to experience going forward. my phone rings, and it's about asset allocation. it's about the move we made last

year, where we allocated to long-term tax-free municipal bonds, and clients wanting to be opportuni opportunistic. >> were you a buyer on monday? >> no. we there about as on concept called two steps and a stumble. we're still fully invested, but you have a market which goes down, there's some decay, some issues, there's value, but i'd like to see things settle on the before we start committing more capital. >> do you think megacap tech, does that, in your words need to settle out more? >> i would like to see that. we still like the stocks. where do you find -- let's take microsoft and amazon's cloud business. they do a hundred billion a year, grew 30% quarter over quarter, a hundred billion

business would be an s&p 35 company growing 30% a year. so many investors are underweight large-cap tech. that's really where the opportunity is for investors who do own enough of these names. >> it feels at this point that everybody owns these names. >> not really. there's a lot of investors that are underweight large-cap tech. so, they might have biotech or other exposure, small cap, mid cap, international. really, it's very important to understand where there's growth and cash flow, and it happens to be rather concentrated right now. what about valuation, top of the program today, i read the list of how much valuations have come in, as these stock pull back from july, you know, double-digit percentage point

declines. >> no question, values are stretched. market's priced for 15% earnings growth year over year, and that's the reason why we're seeing all this volatility, which should continue throughout the year. >> you mean valuations are still stretched in these stocks? >> yeah. we look at the cash flow and the growth of the cash flow, but multiple are stretched. there's still a lot of pockets of opportunity in the market now. >> where is that? >> the thesis is on utilities is we're underpowered in this country. we own two names, nextera and vistra. we've owned it since 2021. 2.2 billion, returning it to

shareholders. keep in mind our utilities are in two states that have immigration -- population immigration, florida and texas. >> when you are highlighting utilities, that screams defensive. is that what you think the best strategy is right now, to be defensive, if you're going to buy anything, buy those types of stocks? >> when you look at a portfolio of 20 to 30 stocks, and you have to broaden out your names, one sector we didn't have exposure in was opportunities, so we added nextra and we've been a long owner of vistra. think about services, accent your, bm, the power generatinga, the utilities. there's a lot of opportunity if you look past the core cloud providers. >> what's a reasonable

valuation, do you think for the overall market. if people were suggesting 21 times was just way too expensive relative to where earnings were going to come in, what seems tore reasonable? >> his turkeyly 16. >> 16? >> that's a start, but now that you have dominating a third of the market, selling at higher -- you have to raise that higher. we still own the stocks, and we're still fully invested. >> what about bonds? the attractiveness of them today, given rates are coming down -- obviously they have bounced back up, but what is your take there? >> last year there was a tremendous opportunity to add 4 to 4.5% tax free long-term munis. >> which you did.

>> yeah, we bought a slug of them. the bonds have gone up in value. i think one of the biggest mistakes was just laddering three, six-month treasuries, getting that 5 and 8%. now that rates are coming down, what do you do with that money? right now we're adding housing bonds, which still achieve over 4%, and tax-free housing paper, which is still an amazing opportunity. you're subject to call risks. other than that, you're buying more three to six-month both on taxable and tax free. great to see you again. >> my pleasure. up next, pippa steven is back. >> one stock is popping 20%. we're double clicking on a name, coming up next.

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back to pippa. >> shopify is tracking for its best day in the year. it says it saw strong demand for its services which included software for online merchant, despite what it calls a mixed

spend environment. progress is being made on vf's brand. those shares are up 7%. scott? pippa, appreciate that. still ahead, looking under the hood with fintech company robinhood reporting earnings in less than an hour. the stock is seeing some strength so far this year. can the run be sustained? we will discuss, coming up. the bell is coming right back. at aes, our energy solutions have powered the world forward for more than 40 years. and as demand continues to scale, so do our solutions. introducing maximo -

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a check on shares on lumen, up big again today. the tell communications company announcing major deals with corning and microsoft. the stock is up more than 500% in just a month. don't miss indicatkate johnson "overtime." up next, robinhood and warner bros. are what we're watching in "overtime." we'll take you inside the market zone, next. sure, i'm a paid actor, and this is not a real company, but there is no way to fake how upwork can help your business.

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we have mine santoli here is to ecbraun the crucial moments, plus kate rooney, julia boorstin looking at warner bros. discovery. we fade in, obviously, michael, is the day we progress, maybe in middle east geopolitical things swirling around that the markets are concerned about, among a number of other things. >> there's plenty of excuses. i think we're in a slop-and-chop corrective mode, and you have to regain trust in the tape. that hand been done to a convincing way. you basically have wounded leadership. they tried to bounce hard this

morning. defensive stocks are the only thing working right now. so at least a chance of a change in the character. the s&p spend part of today and yesterday above 5300. if you care about that, around the 100-day average, found no buyers. none of that says we have to go to nasty new lows. what it says is people have to wait the market to prove itself. after this break, it's usually guilty under proven innocent, and we font have a lot of fundamental inputs, either. >> i'm sorry to step on your toes, but that's where i was going to go next. jobless reports seem to be of heightened importance. we want to be if there's a trend that's worrisome or not. a lot of people from friday's report, unemployment was up, but

not because layoff went higher. we'll see, if we do get that, you know, bond yields are up today. another kind of not-so-great treasury auction. we'll see if a lot of it filters into the psychology or we're 2% above monday's lows still, nothing seems to abnormal, but it takes time and proof. >> yeah. >> kate, tell us what to expect with robinhood. >> scott, it's been a shaky week for the brokerage industry, but robinhood will give us a bit of a pulse on the numbers that really do matter for the quart, plus the breakdown of where that's coming from, crypto, equities options, and then that interest income. also watch deposits some people are watching that closely, and retirement accounts, so they're going to keep an eye a.

a lot of focus how they're forecasting, and all of this volatility and possibly weaker consumer, as the fed appears to be changing course, then we would definitely expect some questions. scott? >> kate, appreciate that. that's kate rooney. to julia boorstin. what should we pay attention to most? >> warner bros. discovery revenue is expected to decline by 3%, the per-share loss is expected to shrink by about half. similar to what we've seen super disney. > , wbd was -- nba rites are importance to max and their loss will accelerate loss.

three congressional democrats sent a her today to the doj and ftc urging them to scrutiny nye the deal. with shares down over, the f.t. reporting yesterday in an effort to avoid to break it up. the ceo is looking to sell off smaller assets like the polish tv -- we'll hear more later today. two-minute warning, you just saw the animation there, and heard it as well. we're going to turn to you, mike. the dow is off about 200 or so. financials up higher today, energy higher, oil's higher, maybe again on the middle east sort of concerns that are still out there. >> yes. >> a bit of counter-trend stuff happening for sure. >> we're still work about the cyclicals. travel stocks maybe confirming

doubt about the services sector and the resilience of that part of the economy. i don't think the argument is -- [ bell rang ] -- >> somebody prematurely hit the bell. i don't think it's recession for sure. i think it's what probability do we assign a hard landing. the market is struggle. i think above 5600, you had very little chance built in of a real down turn, and you have all things firing in terms of the bull thesis. so maybe that's where we settle out. we're still at 20 times earnings on the s&p. it's not like things have gotten desperate. we're hanging around the levels about -- >> the travel names, we say the

consumer is really struggling, and we say, okay, not that bad. >> it depends on where you look, it's the rate of change. [ bell ringing ] >> it's for real this time. >> i'll see you tomorrow. "overtime" now with morgan and jon. well, that bell marks the end of regulation. a big intraday downturn in racing and early rally. the nasdaq would be up, before ending the day firmly in the red. s&p closes about at the lows. welcome to "closing bell" "overtime." >> we have more rates on the health of corporate america. with warner bros. discovery,

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