but continuing claims have been trending higher and we know that we don't have a lot of macro data this week. next week, that will start to change. >> i thought the claif owe returns and the shopify results were interesting. >> yeah, and we keep an eye on all the consumer companies, too. dutch bros lower in "overtime." that's going to do it for us here at "overtime." "fast money" starts now. and we are live from the nasdaq market site, right in the beating heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." and it's a big wednesday. let's jump right in. easy come, easy go. stocks starting the day out with a bang, raising hopes for a recovery rally, but a rough bond auction turning things around quick. red flags for retail? a big bank sounding a siren on the consumer. we'll speak with the analyst behind that call and find out where she is maybe still seeing opportunity. and a megaday for media earnings. supermicro cease not so super day. and novo nordisk slimming down,

after failing to impress. stories and the moves behind all those stocks coming up. hi, everybody, i'm brian in for melissa once again. we note that we are live in studio b -- >> you said that. >> required to mention it repeatedly. dan nathan, guy adami. tim seymour and julie biel with us, as well. another not great day for your money. now, the day did begin nicely, the nasdaq up more than 2% at one point today. but then a big bust, and we actually ended the day lower, basically three-point round trip for the nasdaq intraday. don't see that much. so, what happened? well, some are blaming the reversal on a lousy government bond auction. terrible demand for ten years, that hurt sentiment. and interest rate stocks did get slammed today. the small cap index down 1.4%, bringing its losses just this week to 3.5%.

and it's only wednesday. home builders and bio tech efts down 2%. but it was not all bad. you had a flight to safety, i guess. apple up 1.25%. google also rising as well. guy -- >> yes, sir. welcome back. you were worried last night. >> i -- i had reason to be. >> no. >> but -- i do remember one thing about last night. >> yeah. >> which was that you said you thought yesterday's little mini rally was a blip in a tough tape th , that appears to be correct. what do you make of this big intraday reversal? >> get used to it, i think. 130-point reversal in the s&p today. we bounced about % off the lows that we saw on monday. which was significant in terms of how quickly it got there, and just the scope in which we did it, all that happened with japan and those different things and their reversal, in terms of what's happening with yields.

i think the bottom line, the economy is slowing, i think the unemployment rate is scaring people and i think people are come to the realization that wait a second, maybe the whole a.i. trade and everything we've predicated our belief system in -- >> is there a way, tim, to take away something broader on the big reversal days? you start out hot, the buyers are there. i don't want to call it a collapse, but a 3% intraday move on the nasdaq, we don't see that very much. what do we read from those types of turns? >> well, that the market wasn't oversold, first of all. and i think that that's totally fair. one of the things we've learned about the wave of passive investing is when you have a move to the door, it creates enormous volatility that you might not have seen. and there's been a lot of active managers out there that haven't really believed in fundamentals. so, it creates the kind of panic we've had. and we talked about yesterday and we'll continue to talk about, what are the ingredients in the vol spike? and so, even if we separate out

carry trade, japan, et cetera, the reality is, if you look at the underperformance today, it was smack in the face of the areas that have been given the most leadership and you mentioned a.i., you mentioned semis, the smh, the semiconductor etf closed 3% down, and so -- you know, the s&p effectively closed exactly where it closed on monday, but this time, heading to the downside, as you pointed out. it's not very auspicious, and i think the reality is, we haven't reconciled, really anything. it's nice to have seen stocks hold major levels, but there's a lot of argument from technicians that theres ways to go. one of the things we're seeing from earnings right now that we may be at peak margins for this cycle. that's something else that the market hasn't really digested, and that's not a recession dynamic, that's truly corporate-specific. >> dan, would you call this a risk reversal? >> i see what you did there. i would in a way. there's two things and tim just kind of referenced the technicals. if you want to go back to

monday's opening, the s&p 500 is probably at 1.25% away from that, and the nasdaq is 2.5% away from that. keep a close eye on those levels, because you go through those, and there's probably not a lot of support, just from a purely technical standpoint. and tim also said that maybe we weren't that oversold, right? a little panicky on monday's open. we had a good couple-day rally, but it didn't feel like it was in particularly good hands. and to tim's point about the fundamentals, if you are calling peak margins for the cycle, if we start to see deceleration in earnings and sales growth, and then you start to see basically analysts starting to rachet numbers down, we've been talking on the desk that double-digit expected earnings growth for this year, 11.5%, and maybe as high as 14% for next year, it just seems overly optimistic at this point. so, at some point, as we get closer to the end of q-3, you might see analysts and strategists racheting down earnings expectations for this year and next. >> interesting, so, julie, number one, do you agree with

dan? number two, if you do, then, we wonder, i guess, where those estimates end up, because to get to whatever, 19, 19 1/2 multiple, we still -- math says prices may have to couple down a little more. >> yeah, i think that's exactly right. i agree with dan. think we are kind of in this place where we're putting a lot of hopes and dreams into the second half, and it's just not clear to me that we're going to be able to deliver that in terms of earnings growth. listening to all the conference calls, guidance has been pretty timid. and the overlying, you know, circumstances, we just aren't able to price the same way that we used to. and so, that's when this argument of, have we reached peak margin becomes really, really relevant. when i think about today's market action, it's really clear to me, along with the idea that as sets are there, there's not a lot of conviction. most people who are professional investors, many of them are kind of in this market against their wishes, in terms of the a.i. trade, and even the move into small caps. and so, any time there's a whiff

of trouble, they all back out and run for their doors. and a lot of us are still trying to figure out what are the drivers? is it interest rates, is mercury in retrograde? is it the pmi that's saggier than i am when i'm wearing a bathing suit? i don't know. we don't have a lot of leadership, and that's what's really making for volatility. >> well, i don't think -- i would push back on that, julie, but you know, who aim to say. with that said, margins, tim mentioned, julie just mentioned, let's talk about margins. the march, people are making arguments for supermicro, smci, on valuations. the argument is on a price to earnings ratio was compelling. 30 times the growth rate. but our concern all along is when margins turn, watch how quickly they'll take these stocks out to the wood shed. look at the move since. the stock is down 65% ish from that prior all-time high. multiple is still compelling. margins are declining. again, i know dan agrees with this, i think you're going to

start seeing more and more of this. sell first, ask questions later. >> we kind of went into this yesterday, tim, which is, supermicro computer, a company that probably nobody had heard of a year ago, maybe if you're in the industry, you heard of it. now you have a stock that went from nothing to whatever it was, 1,000, it's down 60% off of its highs in a couple of months. that's the kind of stuff, forget about the company, that just crushes investor confidence, i think. >> well, i -- i would prefer to look at a micron or a dell, because i think those are companies that at least have a history of performance outside of this a.i. space. and icron, to me, i can tell you, i felt the dynamic there with memory, even a.i. and their ability to deliver a chip that actually could be able to be part of a super memory dynamic is something that was kind of

ridiculous at the top. so, dell, again, has reinvented itself and there's dynamics to the story there that are still very exciting. but i think those would be the examples for me that are more telling. nvidia, obviously, on some level, is -- i don't think the story has changed there. we got some news in the last 48 hours that maybe blackwell was going to take longer to come to market and deliver the same numbers that the street had started to price in. but i think overall, what we're seeing is, frothier stocks, and the ones that, to me, are really more outliers, and i think microis one of those names. i would prefer to go to the names that people thought of as big companies that were suddenly transformed by a.i., and i'm not talking about nvidia, but the first two. >> i'll just mention, the quality of the names that started to kind of take off a little bit. you saw intel about a month ago go from $30, had been basing there for, i think, two months or so, and went to $37 on, you know, some sort of expectation that they're going to have some product next year that's going to compete with nvidia, and that

just wasn't the case. so, for every great story like an nvidia, there's an intel and there's an amd. so, the quality folks were going for was getting worse and worse. when i think about, there's taiwan semi and the flip side of that isglobal foundries, and that thing has been decimated. so, i think investors are becoming a bit more choosey. they're probably starting to question the sort of trajectory of the story, and, again, if we do start to see a deceleration, we're going to get a lot of news on august 28th from nvidia, and, again, i like to see -- >> yeah. >> even if they're able to keep current estimates, you know, in place, how is the stock going to react? i can't imagine we're going to have the sort of reaction that we had last year. >> we're going to move onto media. julie biel, any reason to buy intel at all? it's now a teenager, it's under 20, being sued by shareholders, breaking news tonight. the stock -- it could be a value trap, a lot of people look at it, go, it's intel, it's got to come back. and that's not how the market

works. >> no. all of these semiconductor names are problematic, because they have a really high level of vix cause. when they get a minuscule amount of revenue deceleration, it collapses their margins, and that's why we avoid names like that. >> yeah. avoid, maybe, we'll see what happens. but intel, under 20. all right, now to another tough industry and that is the media. pretty grim out there. warner brothers discovery out with their results. i won't call them earnings, no earnings. another big loss. another big miss. and a big write down. julia boorstin has the details. i don't know if i summed that up appropriately, julie. >> that's right, brian. the company takes a $9.1 billion wr writedown. the ceo acknowledges what he called tough conditions in the legacy business, saying that the write down better aligns the company with its future outlook, and they always thought this would be a multi-year transition

to respond to what they describe as an ongoing generational disruption. the company stressing its strength in digital, it added a better than expected 3.6 million new subscribers. though the loss for the streaming division was larger than expected, and revenue for the division declined 6%. but for all of the company's focus on digital, the moedia giant continues to be dragged down by the linear assets. the network as sets saw 8% decline in revenue and earnings. and they were just asked if losing the nba was impacting their deal negotiations. he didn't really answer. he said he wasn't going to speak to any specific piece of ip or content. back over to you. >> yeah, wow. julia boorstin -- dan, i don't even know. again, kind of like an intel. this is warner brothers discovery. this is cnn. brands that we know. yet, the stock can't get out of its own way. >> listen, it's very simple. the ground has been really below

big media's feet for 10, 15 years. when you think about losing an asset or losing a piece of content like the nba for a company that's already struggling with their linear tv, it just makes it that much worse. and a lot of these networks have had a hard time putting this content on some of the streaming models, too. a lot of folks, and we talked about, my parents have no idea how to find the olympics on peacock. a lot of folks out there -- i should i not have said that? >> my folks are the same thing. >> okay. >> first thing i say, go to peacock, which is excellent -- >> they have no idea how to download peacock. >> you don't download it. but i get it. we decided to take this industry behind the wood shed. >> that's my point. thank you. guy? >> you get to iglewood cliffs from time to time. >> time to time. >> we have -- i mean, it's fair to say crack staff. is that true? >> the best. >> the best. so, if they were the best, they could pull up now a 20-year chart of wbd and you'll see, we

are trading now at levels we last saw in the financial crisis, when, i think, the stock was a $6.50 stock. to answer your question, it's going to trade 200 million shares tomorrow, ten times normal volume. it probably trades down to those levels. if you are looki ing for a trad on what will absolutely be capitulation, tomorrow's the day you've been waiting for. >> let's talk more about media and media stocks with somebody who has forgotten more about media than we'll ever know, that is tom rogers, founder cnbc, now cnbc contributor, executive chair of orbit, among other things. i am not -- i'm going to say something about bankruptcy, but nothing to do with the stocks, i want to make that clear. it's kind of like the trajectory of this business. hemingway famously wrote, there's two ways to go bankrupt. gradually, then suddenly. and it feels like the ground that shifts that dan was referring to has just opened up

in the last six months. where is the bottom here? >> well, i think it's a great question, but it's really two very different stories between disney and warner, and you got to look at them differently. obviously not a good day in either stock. and there was a lot of disappointment on the amusement park side of disney. but when you look at what the whole problem has been here, would streaming ever make up for the decline in the traditional linear business? and disney can say, and i don't know why they didn't talk to this, i don't know why it hasn't been something that analysts have highlighted, but they got to a point in the last quarter where combined direct to consumer streaming revenue actually exceeds the revenue of their traditional linear businesses.

now, obviously, revenue top line is not margin, and they got a long way to go before the margin on the streaming side begins to make up for the loss of profitability on linear. but that's a major milestone that none of the other traditional media companies have yet hit. >> okay, these are good points, and i want to be clear, there were some things, the top media analyst out there noted she liked the margins on some of the areas, she liked the fact that they added 800,000 subscribers, but i think to your point about making money, tom, last night, we talked about rivian, and ev maker, right? and they're selling cars and trucks, some of them are $100,000, but it costs them a lot more to manufacture the car. so, revenue is going up, but profitability is not there. it sounds like that's kind of what you're sort of analyzing with disney and hulu and everybody else. will there ever be a time of

streaming profitability? does the model ultimately work? because if it doesn't, tom, i don't know what the industry is going to do. >> well, disney, for the first time, did hit streaming profitability, remember, i've been very cautious about disney, warning over and over again over the last several years that when people compared netflix and disney, netflix was miles ahead, that's clearly the case. but you can't take away the progress disney has made here. warner is a bit obscure, because what is in the warner streaming numbers is cable hbo. so, it's not a pure look at their -- at streaming per se, when they talk about direct to consumer. and that clouds the picture. obviously propping up revenue, to some extent. now, when they say they only had 3 million plus subs, i think that probably lost a bunch of cable subs, and so, their actual

streaming subs may have increased more than that. i don't know why they don't give a clear picture, but that is a company that is nowhere near being able to get to the point that it's streaming revenues are e give lebt to its linear revenues, and in that company, linear represents 80% of revenue and profits of the business. >> you gave tom a bunch of accolades as you invited him in. you could have just basically said it in one word, dan, you know what that word is? >> stud. >> stud. and he is. so, here you go, tom. you know, since we're on the hemingway thing. the sun also rises, and it rises in the form of netflix, which, by the way, has given you a bit of a pull back over the last couple months. all the things we've been talking about and hearing, is this recent selloff in netflix once again taunt for traders goat back in a stock that's been almost bullet proof over the last ten years? >> well, i think if you believe in media still as something that is going to be an overwhelming

focus of consumer discretionary spending, it is clearly going to be the leader. it is -- by all metrics is way ahead of everybody else. you know, when you look at disney+ introducing maybe 16 new shows for the season, max introducing at warner maybe about the same, and netflix has a model where they're able to introduce 92 new shows in a quarter, which is just a remarkable difference in terms of how the machine works, being able to drive engagement. now, they haven't proved themselves on advertising yet. and all these companies have -- are clearly setting themselves up to be hugely reliant on advertising. and amazon came to the party and depressed everybody's pricing by throwing basically all of amazon prime viewership into the advertising pool now.

along with youtube, which has become the streaming leader. and so, that is something which netflix is going to have to prove itself on, andhas a long way to go to do that, but in other respects, yes, it's way ahead of the pack, and it's at this point probably something that is worth investing in. >> tom rogers -- >> stud. he is. it's unbelievable. he's a visionary. think about what he's done in his career. and by the way, he's not just hanging out and resting on his laurels, i'm not really sure what a laurel is. he's still kicking it. and he's a grandfather. look at the man. >> that's it. >> that's it. >> that's it. hemingway fan, brian? >> absolutely. >> it's almost as much fun spending time with you guys as it is with the grandkids. i must admit. >> well, next time, be on-set. do you know what hemingway's boat was named? >> i'm not really sure. >> pilar. >> pilar. read a book called "hemingway's boat." on deck -- >> you can't do that.

>> i'm the host. i can. is it raining? more numbers just rolling out. we're going to go under the hood on robinhood with kate rooney, who, i believe, is in the house. and jamie dimon weighing in. what may be the most powerful bank ceo in the world. what he had to say about markets, rates, and much more, as part of his bus tour. we have much more. "fast money" in back in two. a h so, any pre-launch concerns? what if nobody buys them? that's mean or, what if everybody buys them? oh, i hadn't thought of that that's probably not gonna happen can we handle that kind of traffic? the network can handle it! i downloaded eight hours of true crime stories just during our last video call i'm learning a lot

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and z fold6 when you trade in your current phone. get the fastest connection to paris with xfinity. welcome back to "fast money," everybody. we've got an earnings alert on robinhood. the stock is up about 3%. the company reporting a beat on both the top and the bottom line. kate rooney in the house to break out the robinhood numbers. >> in the house. great to be here. it was a beat across the board for robinhood. record deposits, as well. revenue grew 40%. monetization looked a lot better. average revenue per user was 113 bucks, 8 bucks better than expected. transaction-based revenue up 69% from a year ago. primarily driven by options. that made up about 55% of the total. crypto was a quarter of that. and equities were only 12%. a lot of talk in the call that's going on right now. trying to court more active traders. margin balances grew 20%.

i spoke to the ceo who said they're continuing to take assets from every major brokerage firm. deposits hit a record, roughly $3 billion were in asset transfers. and the size, $130,000 per customer, so, it does signify a higher income investor. they now have $140 billion under custody. schwab still has more than $4 trillion. we just got an update on the august volume. they say they look pretty much the same as july, up 20%. with a billion in net deposits in the first week of august, guys. >> what would be the headline if you are going to write the headline? what stuck out to you the most? >> i would say a beat -- the deposits, they're taking market share and trying to get that active trader, they're coming for td, they're coming for schwab and making progress. >> kate, thank you. dan, they're becoming a bank, it sounds like. >> well, listen, they've really upgraded their offering. if you think back to the meme stock a few years ago, you would only yolo options.

now, they're really going multileg. so, the offering is much more in tune with an active trader that wants to use this technology. >> julie, i'm old enough to remember when people got mad at payment for order flow. now everybody loves the hood. >> well, it's hard to argue with free, right? we give over a lot of private data to google just for usability and search, so, the little bit the same thing here. i still think that's a concern for us, longer term. the other thing, too, is the way that they acquire customers in terms of the incentives, it's not super sustainable, and i think in order for the value and the multiple to really change and improve, they have to do a little bit better on that. but i was impressed by the arpu growth, up 30%. that's not nothing. and i think they're well on their way to getting where they need to be. >> you like the stock, julie? >> you know, i really -- i prefer interactive. i think it's a better quality business. i think the payment for order flow, it creates a limit of how much your customers are willing to have their data sold out that

way. >> tim, you got a robinhood take? >> i think after a 45% pullback in 15 days, i want more out of a great quarter for a company. i look at the assets under custody, up 57%. and isn't that, you know, effectively the move in the stock market from year to year to the end of the second quarter? so, i think there's a lot of questions in terms of how they do in a difficult market. i think it's a different type of investor. it's nice they're adding to the offering. look, there's a lot out there that they're going to do well, and are doing well now, but what difference yates them? i just think the stock shows it is vulnerable during these periods of volatility, and their primary trader is probably right in that group of volatility. >> well said. and i believe something did say if something is free, you are the product. all right, coming up, all the afterhours action that you need to know about in big oil. big real estate, and more. plus, the latest big

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welcome back to "fast money." on a very busy wednesday. we got a lot of things moving afterhours. marathon oil on the move, a little bit on the move. occidental, big warren buffett holding. up 1.1% right now. zillow, the real estate company and website, also higher on its own beat. i know people are still drinking coffee, i just don't know if they're drinking dutch brothers coffee. they're down 17% right now, $31.35, despite a beat on the top and bottom line. fast-growing company, maybe fast wasn't fast enough. and dating company bumble absolutely stung. down 28% right now, forecasting weak third quarter revenue. so, you got people aren't dating, they're not drinking coffee, but apparently they're looking for houses and using oil. >> i think you did a great job breaking it down. >> you're welcome. >> it's interesting. you know off the top of your

head, 34% for oxy? >> 29. >> 29, tim. >> he could take it to 50. >> which is -- he could take over the company. i'm not saying that he will. >> put up a long-term chart. it's been between $55 and $62 for the last three years. it is amazing. the only stock this guy's bought that goes nowhere. i think it's relatively cheap here. and marathon, as well. energy, if there's going to be a rotation out of technology, energy wins. >> wow. and we'll see if that wins, because i know what hasn't been winning is the solar and wind. those stocks have been terrible. all right, coming up, leslie picker sitting down with jamie dimon in her hometown for an exclusive interview. what jamie had to say about markets, rates, jpmorgan, and why kansas city barbecue is not as good as north carolina barbecue. he didn't say that, i did. plus, a retail reduction. one analyst downgrades the section and gives a big warning on you, the consumer.

she's here, coming up. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.

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all right, welcome back. as part of his annual bus tour, jpmorgan ceo jamie dimon went out to the great midwest to sit down with leslie picker for a wide-ranging interview this afternoon to talk about the election, the state of the company, the federal reserve's next move, and he spoke about what he sees right now. leslie joining us from kansas city, which is also her hometown, and the whole thing is very suspicious. did it just happen to be kansas city, leslie, and you're like, yeah, i'm from there, i'll go? >> ah, yeah, i did, brian. as you remember, we were in montana last year, and i had never been to the state of montana, so, it was just auspicious timing that it happened to be in kansas city this year, because they had been expanding their branches and their footprint in the midwest, so, they try to make it a strategic focus for this year's bus tour. it's an important week to hear from die mon, given the recent

volatility. he said people, quote, overreact a little bit to the daily fluctuation of the market. he said despite the economic data in recent days, he still pegs the odds of a soft landing around 35% to 40%, the same level he saw six months ago, but he said that the economy is not currently in a recession. however, he did express doubt that the fed has concurred its last mile in bringing inflation down. >> does inflation really get back to 2%? i'm a little bit of a skeptic on that, too. i don't look as much at the short-term data. the things that are inflationary, that are in the future, deficit spending, green economy, they haven't really happened yet, but they're going to happen, and they're not deflationary. >> our interview also came on the heels of an op-ed last week where he said whomever assumes the role of president should, quote, put the most talented people, including those from business, into their cabinet. so, i asked him if he'd serve,

if asked, and he said he loves what he does, but he didn't say no, brian. he also declined to endorse a ticket when i asked him about that. >> yeah, well said. i mean, listen, you don't want to endorse anybody if you are jamie dimon, you want republican and democrats' money. you've been interviewing him now -- he looks skinny, by the way. you've been interviewing him for a couple years. how was his demeanor like o offcamera? i guess if you make his money, you're going to be optimistic. >> yeah, it's interesting you ask. just given the events of the week, the jobs report, given what we saw with the markets and the volatility therein, i was really looking forward to hear what he had to say about what's going on in the markets, if he's seeing cracks in the economy, because we've heard for a few years now, you know, the expectation that there's a higher likelihood for a hard landing than the markets are expecting. and i felt like today he was pretty sang win, and he was pretty optimistic about the

state of the economy. pretty opt mustic even about the state of the consumer, where he says they've normalized to levels from pre-pandemic before all the fiscal stimulus came into the economy, but not in ways that he seemed to be concerned about, noting that, you know, we're not in a recession right now. >> good stuff. leslie picker out in kansas city. tell everybody hello. guys, let's trade this. guy, anything you want to read into his comments? >> fed commentary and rate cuts don't matter as much as you think, and he's skeptical if we can get down to 2% inflation. i agree. the banks, and, you know, i know dan's talked about this, i think the banks got ahead of themselves. but look at the recent pull-back in some of the banks. bank of america, which reported a few weeks ago. the stock traded up to 44. the comments we made were, in this environment, there's no way a name like bac should trade at that kind of premium to book value and it should trade at $34 ish. and that's where we got down to.

so, i thisnk the banks probably ran too far too fast. >> yeah, i'll just mention this. we've been talking about a consumer that sees to have been weakening, we saw the jobs data on friday. but when you see gdp now for q-3, they just racheted up that expectation. you hear a guy like jamie dimon, who has lots of touch points on the consumer say we are not in a recession right now. i kind of want to take his word for it, and i feel like how bad we were in forecasting a recession in 2022, that was meant to be in 2023, it seems like a lot of folks are now getting very comfortable with the fact that it's coming soon. so, to me, you know, i think it probably comes later than most would expect. >> let's kind of expand that conversation and move onto your call of the day. and that is a rather discouraging view on the macro consumer. barclays today downgrading the entire retail sector to neutral from positive, citing a meaningful summer cooldown in sales and worries over inventories, but not everywhere you and there are some stocks they like.

barclays senior retail analyst andr adrienne ye is joining us, she made the call. how much of a macro slowdown are you and your team seeingover all? >> so, we're receiving an intensification of promotions. and so, that is the first line, where you will see the weakness, because they're actually trying to induce traffic and conversion. we're seeing promotions at the same type of levels that we were seeing them in the first half of last year. in the first half of last year, retailers were trying to get rid of anywhere between 10% and 30% of their inventory. so, when you see that same level of promotion happening now, it's for a very different reason. they're not trying to solve a problem to get rid of inventory, they're trying to stimulate demand. that's the reason why we made the call today. >> and you write about what you called the negative wealth effect. and of course, we know that

lower income consumers are always hit hardest by inflation and everything, but you make a point to note that even sort of upper middle class consumers who are just getting bludgeoned by higher auto insurance rates, home insurance rates, prices up 20% to 30%, now they seem to be the group that is if not angry, certainly frustrated. >> and that really is the crux of it. so, over $70,000 household income are 45% of the number of households, but they are two-thirds of the spend. over $100,000 is a third. that's where all the spending actually happens. inflation is so insidious, because it started at the 50 k consumer in april of '22, and it had the creep effect. the cohort above didn't start negative spending year on year negative spending until mid 2023. we are only one year into that. so, part of this, you talk to people and they're kind of

annoyed at inflation, and they complain about it. what's now happening, we're in year 23 and they're pulling back on spending. >> i'm just telling you, i think insurance costs are the black swan that could bring down the entire economy. adrienne, thank you so much. by the way, does still like, tim, the gap, american ekele, dick's. the upper retailers. you got a take on those stocks or what adrienne saidover all? >> well, i know dan's been a big fan of dick's. i think you have a case here where you have the bifur kated consumer what's fascinating to me is that the low income consumer that adrienne talked about two years ago, we started to see some normalization there. and if you think about the dollar trees and the dollar gens and the impact there -- some of that is sbgetting interesting t me. i think you have a major, major dynamic here where not only have the discretionary names run into, call it that second wave and that second cycle of

pull-back in the upper, you know, upper income bracket, but i just think the expectations on growth, the expectations, the margin conversation we've had earlier in this show, is never more important in discretionary. and that's both in terms of fast cur casual, but in apparel. i think discretionary is under a lot more pressure. >> yeah, well said. tim, thank you very much. all right, coming up, mortgage madness. we do see rates rebounding after that steep drop, and if you missed the chance to refinance, you might have to wait awhile for the next move lower. we're going to get a closer look at the housing trade, and just how reactionary people have been. but first, a no-go for novo. sinking after issuing a warning to investors. we'll talk about the road ahead for novo and eli lilly tomorrow morning.

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you become a part of that family, and it's a family that will support you for the rest of your life. ( ♪♪ ) morgan stanley is partnering with the women's tennis association to remove boundaries... ( ♪♪ ) because this game is for everyone. welcome back to "fast money." novo nordisk stock slimming down a bit right now, off 8%. earnings were good, but not good enough for everybody. remember, novo nordisk, they make a lot of things, but make wegovy, and even while the drug remains hot, novo is trimming

its outlook for operating profit for the year, but staying optimistic. novo nordisk telling our friends at cnbc europe that he expects, quote, attractive growth, despite increasing competition in the glp-1, the weight loss drug space. shares of eli lilly down in sympathy today. lilly reports t. your take on either? >> well, they better not report the kind of sluggish growth that, you know, novo did. >> or what? >> well, the stock is -- >> sound like my dad, you better not. >> just really quickly, 3% growth year over year on 24% sales growth, so, those expenses are becoming a problem here, so, that's the take on lilly. just the last thing, we've been talking about this for a little bit, you know, 50% of the scripts are insurance covered. so, this is a very high priced consumer discretionary item right now. >> lilly has a real chance to trade down -- and we've been saying this for awhile on the way up, which was wrong, but now

since it made the all-time high. 730. and by the way, do you not watch television? it's wegovy. they have people singing in choruses and -- >> have you not seep me walking around? i'm clearly not on any weight loss drug. okay, i'm clearly not taking said product. it should be obvious to you. guy. >> not particularly. >> wegovy. julie -- who ways to look at this. novo -- i don't want to say problems. novo's slowdown maybe is benefiting lilly. maybe people are going from one drug to the other. or it's a more macro thing. do you have a read? >> i'm not sure. i think, look, the long-term fundamentals for this are really quite good. both for eli and for novo. we know that, you know, this is a huge issue, it is something that has been pervasive, the question really is, it really hinges on, what can we do about insurance to cover these things? most employers are not that excited to pay for a high-cost drug if they're not going to see

the benefits for years and years on their population. so, that's a really tricky dilemma they have to solve in order for it to move from consumer discretionary to health care. i think that's right. >> all right, julie and dan, thank you. and lilly out tomorrow morning. to dan's point, they better not miss. coming up, a one-hit wonder in the refi market? maybe. how long will homeowners, home buyers, home refinancers, will have to wait for another opportunity to rthefi eir mortgage rate much lower? we'll talk about that coming up. , from someone named giancarlo. and i didn't live in that shoebox for years. not just— with empower, we get all of our financial questions answered. so you don't have to worry. i guess i'll get the caviar... just kidding. join 18 million americans and take control of your financial future with a real time dashboard and real live conversations. empower. what's next.

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it's gold for team usa. noah lyles with another gold medal. in case there was any doubt, who was the breakout star of these world championships. all right, mortgage rates, they are rebounding after a sharp drop last week. one that led to apparently a surge in refinancing, but that refi window may have just closed back up, with rates back on the rise. question is, if you're out there looking to buy or refi, how long might you have to wait? diana olick is joining us. i'm shocked that mortgage rates were moving -- i thought they were lagged by weeks? >> no, no. mortgage rates move every single day. and we have that from mortgage news daily, which we have on the ticker. talking about the refi boom, it

may not repeat itself. last week, the average we get from mortgage bankers association, applications to refinance a home loan, which, of course, are most sensitive to weekly rate changes, jumped 16%, compared with the previous week. and were 59% higher than the same week one year ago. now, while the percentage increases are big, they're still coming off a very small base, a vast majority of borrowers have rates that are less than 5%. they came down because the average year rate on the 30-year fixed dropped to the lowest level in over a year. and that's on the mortgage bankers association weekly average read. now, take a look at this week so far, which is from mortgage news daily. they count it every day. rates dropped again sharply on monday. but then, they boomeranged back up tuesday, and came up a little more today. so, now we're almost a quarter of a percentage point higher in just these two days. so, great if you got in on

monday, not great if you are were holding on for something lower, okay, bruin, i guess, if you got in on friday. >> amazing. literal ly day-to-day. tim, i had no idea that these types of things moved this quickly. is there any kind of a trade or a play here if rates do continue to tick down? >> well, i would look at the entire sector and say that home builders as a group, and if you own the xhb, we talk about the competition of that a lot. the fact the xhb is up 130% from pre-covid levels. is our housing market that sustainably more profitable for the home builders and the various, you know, elements of that etf? in other words, you have hvac, you have materials, you have different elements in there. you also have a lot of does cession their in there. so, i think some of the themes of tonight's show are things that are going to be under pressure. i just feel as if the dynamic around pricing, especially with a consumer that is weakening, is

a headwind. and if the job market is also something we're expecting to weaken, i think this is peak housing. >> it is amazing, we thought everybody was locked into a low mortgage. if everybody is looking to refi, rtge're not locked into a low >> > all right, up next, your final trades. old school hard work meets bold new thinking. to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real. ♪♪ [inner monologue] in this gig... you get comfortable being uncomfortable. ♪♪ the enemy is always adapting... deepfake: hey handsome. ♪♪ [inner monologue] ...always iterating. ♪♪

all right, time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. julie biel? kick it off. >> celsius. expectations have finally kind of reached earth and i think it's safe to go in as a good quality business. >> tim? >> wbrian, thank you for joinin us. we know about target. i think it's time to do target over walmart. >> dan? >> yeah, playing oil for a

bounce via uso. >> the uso oil fund. guy? >> wegovy. >> wegovy. >> i think robinhood is interesting at these levels. >> robinhood -- you know what is interesting at these levels? you guys. i appreciate taking it easy on me. melissa is back tomorrow night >> my mission is simple, to make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investors, there is always -- i will help you find it, mad money starts now. i am cramer, welcome to mad money , i am just trying to make you money, my job is not just to entertain but education and teach me him a call me. you cannot hope for rate cuts from the federal reserve and also exp