check it out. tornado warnings just got one of these things on my phone. >> means it might be coming to new york after. >> yep. >> okay. folks, have a great weekend. if you're on the east coast, stay dry, and we'll see where the markets end up and hopefully be staying dry in the markets as well. have a great weekend. "squawk on the street" begins right now. ♪ good friday morning, and welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm david faber with mike santoli. we're live from post nine at the new york stock exchange. carl quintanilla is at the olympics finishing things off there. of course, big day and weekend ahead in paris. jim has a well-deserved morning off. let's give you a look at futures as we wrap up a volatile week. you know, we use that word a lot, but i think it's really applicable this time. it has been volatile, and we are looking, it would appear, for a lower open, but again, doesn't mean much of anything given what we've already seen this week during the sessions.

our road map does begin with that wild week of trading, as i said. the s&p and the nasdaq came in to avoid their fourth straight week of losses. plus republican presidential nominee donald trump saying he should have a voice when the fed makes its decisions on interest rates. and paramount global reporting results. that sends the stock higher in the premarket. media company taking a big writedown, though, announcing it's going to cut as much as 15% of its u.s. workforce as well. let's start with the markets. the s&p coming off its biggest rally since november of 2022. all three major indexes still down for the week. mike santoli, always happy to have you here to tell us what your thoughts are and what we've seen so far this week. are we done with the worries? of course, we're not with the worries about a recession now that suddenly this week everybody was talking about in a way we certainly didn't even hear a couple weeks ago. there's been some data to support it, but it's not clear to me that there's enough to support quite how much it seems to have impacted our markets.

>> if you looked at the market action, first of all, s&p down 0.5% on a week to date basis obviously doesn't look like much but it went down 10% peak to low, 3% on monday alone, and if you just took it as a macro message, saying it was a recession panic or a growth scare. it had these accelerants, though. we spent plenty of time talking about crowded trades, yen carry trades, forced repositioning, liquidations, the vix goes to six for a second on monday morning. all of that stuff kind of bundled together represents, to me, coming off a condition when we got to mid-july, got to the record highs, of extreme confidence and optimism about the likelihood of a soft landing, the fed was going to do the right thing for the right reasons at the correct pace. you didn't have to worry about these volatility eruptions. where we are right now is, we're past that positioning stress, that idea that we have to worry

about some other, you know, shoe dropping coming from the macro trade. i think that's where we are right now. we're monitoring the vital signs. the vix has come down to 24. the yen has calmed down a little bit. all of those things, but i do think the path from here, even if it's a soft landing, is going to feature a lot of mixed data, and i think that's what we have to absorb. >> we all know -- all know -- we all -- there's an expectation, of course, in september, i think, the 18th, we're going to get a cut. now whether it's 25 or 50 is more in play. we're going to get another cpi report, a pce, a bunch of things between now and then that we'll talk about endlessly. but you know, i wonder when it comes to this market, in terms of especially the mega cap tech names, is nvidia is next real thing that we wait for? that's a ways away. >> it's in three weeks. and i do think -- well, it's the next thing we know about in terms of the big macro input that does have the power to kind of either reinforce or refute

the optimism around a.i., which is already, obviously, undergoing a bit of a rethink right here. we do -- i do think the retail sales numbers and the earnings from the big retailers, they're going to get a lot of attention. >> we're getting walmart, right? >> yeah. home depot. we're going to hear a little more tangibly about how the consumer has done this summer. that matters. earnings, in general, i think, are fine. they're kind of supporting the overall story. the problem is, the s&p got to almost 22 times forward earnings at that moment of maximum confidence in the soft landing and also at a time of extreme low volatility. so, i think you had all these forces, this agreement on the soft landing, this agreement on where the fed was going, that was suppressing volatility. you had the leadership of the magnificent seven, which had the effect of smothering index volatility, and you get people trading behind that and piling into these strategies that benefit from continued calm. let's not talk about the end carry trade. that's just one of the many

types of things you would do if you said, things are calm, they're going to stay that way. once you break that partictternu kind of unleash the suppressed volatility. that's where you get the biggest one-day gain in two years, because you let it out of the bag. that always happens. it would be a bigger surprise if we didn't get a substantial pullback in the late summer of an election year than if we didn't. >> it's august. i mean, it feels like -- i know, it's -- every august, i feel like we have something -- >> august, september, something seems to come along. >> we've been through weeks like this countless times. doesn't mean that they don't, at least, engender a good deal of thinking about what the heck is really going on. we've been through them many, many times. that said, you mentioned the election, and i do wonder what the calendar would tell us and history would tell us in terms of what to expect now that we really are in the heat of it. >> it sort of remains unsettled, at least through september or thereabouts. you have to take it a little bit

with a grain of salt because this year, the market so outperformed the historic pattern of election years, like halfway through the year, that you would have to say, maybe you had some payback that was due anyway, but usually it's a strong finish to the election year, after the election or at least when the market seems to have a fix on a likely outcome and starts to anticipate it being behind us. mostly, the market wants the election over, just like wants these macro prints to be over. yesterday, i was saying the weekly jobless claims, 7,000 light versus forecast. i mean, that's nothing in the grand scheme of the u.s. economy, and yet it got one of these outsize positive market reactions because it was not incrementally bad, and guess what? it was behind us. and we didn't have to worry about it sitting out there ahead of us anymore. >> yeah. and we're going to talk a closer look at things like global luxury goods, card insights from the likes of citi this morning that's getting some attention in terms of what they're seeing. down 11% year over year in july versus 7% in june against the

marginally tougher comp. sequential deterioration, transaction volume growth, things of this nature, perhaps, will have an outsized impact. >> it's been a drum beat of a more careful consumer. michael lasser just now on "squawk" said a more erratic consumer. effectively, it's value sensitivity or just payback from the big binge on goods and travel in the last couple of years. and just a little more stress on budgets because of, you know, obviously, the cumulative effect of inflation and slightly softer job market. all that coming together. i still think it's, you know, a lot of companies took too much price, still trying to figure that out, but there's no doubt that it's not just isolated anymore. the question is whether it can be extrapolated to something more. look, muddle through is, for the economy, is a path, and i think we got used to that at times, so atlanta fed, real gdp, saying 2.9% annualized growth for the third quarter, probably too high, but you know?

1 to 2% is still -- it's still not a recession. it's still not a downturn. it still can support earnings. the fact that the a.i. reassessment is coming at the same time, and you have nvidia 25% off its highs, and you have one of these big, exciting sources of energy in the market that got a haircut at the same time, you know, the macro questions were starting, it explains where we are right now. look, the lows this week in the s&p, just above 5,100, i mean, it's a couple percent above where we were at the lows in april after that pullback. it's still a pretty healthy year to date gain. it still seems like we're in this upper end of the range. you still didn't have your full 10% setback, so i think it's -- i mean, you almost had it in the s&p. it's in the normal range. it didn't happen in an ordinary way, though, and i think that's what has people on edge. that market action globally, overnight into the monday open, i think it is going to have a little bit of a half-life in

terms of people being apprehensive in terms of putting risk back on. >> mike, we'll continue to talk the markets and of course we will, as well, get to a number of earnings we have this morning and other movers. let's get over to carl now, finishing up his assignment at the summer olympic games in paris. carl? >> hey, david. wow. talk about 24 hours of emotion and drama here in paris. on a couple of different fronts, but you've really got to start today with men's basketball, maybe one of the most epic games in the history of olympic basketball. team usa versus serbia in the semis, down 13 points at the end of the third quarter. they were down as many as 17 points. this low-tempo offense really wasn't clicking, even with steph curry shooting 9 for 14 from three. they did come back, though, to win 95-91, and they'll face france in the final tomorrow. coach steve kerr said, "one of the greatest basketball games

i've ever been a part of" and kevin durant seemed to agree. >> that's the top. this was one of the -- this was the best game i ever played in. being down, what, 14, going into the fourth quarter, you know, four-point plays, how many threes did they make? about 15 threes. they were hot all night. you got to give them credit. they came into it with a nice game plan. we was able to keep fighting that fourth quarter. we showed we are who we are. defensively is when we turned it up. >> durant's been fiery on twitter as well, more fiery than usual and then on the other drama front, you had noah lyles who did not take gold in the 200 meter, took bronze, was actually taken off the track in a wheelchair, later said that he tested positive for covid on tuesday and was light headed, had some shortness of breath, chest pains after the race. he was set to run today in the 4 x 100 but he did post, "i believe this will be the end of

my 2024 olympics." by the way, usa track and field issued a statement that said it was noah's decision to compete tonight and we respect his decision, but we actually spoke to max segal, the ceo of usa track and field earlier this morning. >> noah is a tremendous athlete on and off the track. we have great athletes, and i think, you know, their ability to inspire by being transparent and reminding people that these are human beings out there. they're world-class athletes, you know, i know he's determined and resilient, and he'll keep at it, but he's a great ambassador for the sport. >> you're going to hear more from max later on today, guys. we'll talk about the l.a. games in '28, player compensation and a lot more. but it's been pretty fiery these -- as i said, these last 24 hours, as we go into the weekend, talk about these 35, i think, gold medal matches just today, and as we work our way to the closing ceremony on sunday. >> yeah. i mean, again, not to mention track and field, the 400, the

women's 400 hurdles, she's incredible. world record, i believe, as well. and amazing to watch in all ways. it just -- yeah, it's been -- i've been riveted, as you well know. not to mention, of course, lebron, triple-double. what is he, 40 years old? and it's still, like, give it to the old man, we got nothing else to do here. >> no, it was good. i think -- and this is steph's olympic debut, right? he's just a few years away from 40. >> yeah. >> so, it's -- it's cool to talk about these generations, but that was -- nobody can stop talking about this game last night. >> yeah, and i guess basically they had to be in peril of losing for those guys who have won nba mvps and championships to say that was the greatest game i ever played. in other words, you had to kind of be that much in doubt and suspense. >> yeah. fantastic. that's -- this is why we do it, right, david? >> yeah, no, it was amazing.

listen, steph curry was saying the same thing after the game as well in the interview, carl, i mean, you know, play for your country. it's just a different -- it's just a different thing, and they all were quite emotional about it. all right, france now, they get, right? france in the final. >> that's right. >> wembanyama. we'll see how they do. obviously, we continue to be the favorites, but who knows? >> yeah, it's definitely opening up some -- the -- like the markets, right? wider range of outcomes or potential outcomes. >> carl, great coverage as always. we'll see you a bit later in the show. carl quintanilla in paris. still to come, we'll have a closer look at those mag seven names, off to a rough start at least for the month of august. some more than others. let's give you a look at futures. we get started with the final day of trading for this up and down week, isn't it? little less than 17 minutes now. we are expecting a slightly lower open. at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking.

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welcome back to "squawk on the street," mag seven stocks bouncing back after that selloff earlier this week, still underperforming the broader markets for the mochblt of course, we also had that rotation that we talked about for about a week or two that was pretty historic. let's bring in mark mahaney from evercore, has a buy rating on meta, amazon, and alphabet. mark, you have been doing this a long time. you know, weeks like this, they come and go, but i'm always curious to what kind of questions you're getting, particularly we're after earnings season for all these big names from your clients. what's the conversation been like this week if there's any one or two key questions? what have they been, and what's your answer been? >> well, which of these stocks is most dislocated, and which stock has the biggest, most interesting catalyst up ahead of it? those are the two biggest questions. i continue to like all three of these names. i don't want to be overly bullish, and i look to see which is most dislocated and in my mind, that's probably amazon and then google.

meta had phenomenal results, stock traded up, nothing to worry about there, which means it's probably less interesting, compelling, whereas with amazon, there was a fair amount of debate, what happened to our margin expansion and why were retail sales a little bit soft and why didn't advertising revenue come through as strong as we thought it would? we had these lingering concerns, which i think sets the stock up. i think the overall fundamentals for amazon remain very much intact. i think aws and cloud revenue is going to accelerate. advertising revenue is going to start picking up in the back half of the year as they start really lighting up that prime video and i think the retail margins are going continue to come through. they're growing three times faster than retail. those margins will continue to rise. amazon, those three, would be probably our top pick. >> down about 17.5% from the july high. i mean, but there was concern about the quarter and a lot of people saying, come on, guys, really, the olympics is why people were spending less and things of that nature. did you buy some of their explanation? >> not the olympics.

i wouldn't buy that. what i would buy is that the consumer's gotten a little soft. look, we also just went through probably the best read i have into the consumer is online travel, and i cover, you know $400 billion of online travel spend if i look at booking, ex expedia and airbnb. the question is whether this is a temporary summer storm or whether we're going into a hurricane. our guess is that it's more the first than the latter. if that's true, then as the consumer kind of rebuilds his and her confidence a little bit, you want to stick with these names. there's definitely cyclical exposure with these names, but it's not like there was any sort of material down tick in consumer softness from amazon's perspective. amazon -- the consumer for amazon has been somewhat soft for about a year. i don't think things are going to get materially worse. in that case, you want to buy this kind of correction on a name like amazon, and google, real quickly, you got a product cycle here. i think people underappreciate how much better their search product is.

the big headwind is the doj, but assuming that doesn't turn dramatically negative for google, i like google as a product cycle place to be our number two pick amongst those three. >> mark, you mentioned -- so, the consumer concerns for amazon and then the overhang of regulation on google, but what about for both of those, the capex cycle? and whether you're getting questions or management's getting questions about payback. it seems like that's been a big feature of this quarter. >> yeah, i'm sorry, mike, you nailed it. that's obviously been a new one. the two biggest concerns have been how much cyclical exposure do these companies? a lot. and how much softness are they having to deal with? the other one is the capex numbers keep rising. of those three companies, amazon, google, and meta, i think we raised our capex number something like 15% for next year or $20 billion, like the three of them are spending $160 billion in capex. are we really going to see an

roai, return on that a.i. capex? i think the best example of that is meta. meta turned around its business the last two years, in part, and in significant part, because of a.i. deployments, and especially if you're a content company. i think the market's completely missed this point. content companies can be dramatic beneficiaries of a.i. if they deploy it well, and meta's deployed it fantastically, and i think google is doing that now too. so, i know that's a debate in the market. i'm going to take the other side on this. i think a year from now, we're going to look back on this and say, wow, they really did get a great return on that a.i. capex spend and until the market realizes that, it makes longs out of these stocks. >> there will be a bit of a vacuum in terms of that. a year can be a long time in a marketplace. what are you going to be looking at beyond meta, then? you expect you're going to see the real evidence of that return in what names in what way? >> well, probably those -- probably the content names. again, i think meta's just this -- it's showing how both in terms of the products that are great for advertisers, called

ads, and the products that are great for us consumers -- >> what other content names, though, mark? when you say that, explain what you mean. >> you know, google and meta, really, at the top of the list, but if you want to go down and talk about small cap names, i like duolingo, which is using a.i. to materially improve its language learning app. pinterest or snap can use a.i. to materially improve the user experience and the advertiser experience. that's how i want to think about it. i think the market is so fixated on the infrastructure and the chips side of a.i. and they're forgetting that peopling are using a.i. to materially improve the service, the offerings, the product, the user experience, that consumers like you and i feel every day. >> appreciate it. have a great weekend. >> you too, david. all right, as we head to a break, take another look at the futures here. you see the s&p, down just about ten points. it was up 120 points yesterday, up 2.3%. the dow, off about 20. nasdaq with a little bit of

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led by super micro, of course, reporting earnings the other day. warner bros. discovery, we've discuss add great deal. charles river, an interesting story there in terms of pharmaceutical companies not spending quite as much on research and development, and that hitting charles rivers' budget. some questions there about the i.r.a. and whether that's starting to kick in, in terms of the costs of drugs and therefore spending a bit less on r&d fm ro the industry. we're back after this.

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>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. shares of eli lilly extending yesterday's gains following, of course, what was an earnings beat. certainly revenues, commentary as well from david ricks on our air, the company's ceo, in which he basically said, we don't need to advertise. we're not interested in advertising. they're all coming to us right now. that's a high-class problem. >> without a doubt. almost monopolizing the growth in domestic pharma at this point. interesting stuff with the stock. i mean, obviously, had a big rebound, but this was a real victim of this momentum unwind.

goes down toward $800 and it's 6% of the momentum etf, so it just shows you there's a lot of the stuff. people are buying it for the factor, not even for the fundamentals sometimes. >> one of the great mega cap stocks, even though it's not a hyperscaler, so to speak. all right, we've got to friday, everybody. there's the opening bell here at the big board. cnbc realtime exchange, on your screen there, doing the honors here, the dividend focus fund. at the nasdaq, city girls golf, teaching women of color the game of golf. mike, i'm happy to give you the board here. you can take us anywhere you would like to go. what category would you like to start with? >> let's start with, well, consumer. i think there's some reasonable stuff to talk about the consumer. we did get earnings. e.l.f. beauty, and this would be in the category of growth, secular, i mean, chain retailers, so specialty retail in a hot part of the market that's now had a little bit of

hesitation around its guidance. so, good quarter, little bit of muted guidance on the ebitda cash flow stuff. and also, you know, at a 40-plus times multiple. >> yeah. >> that's what we're talking about here too obviously, valued as a secular winner in this area. i think they're, like, huge in target and mass market, so i mean, it's all working for them in a big picture way, but expectations, pretty high, and i think, again, we're trying to sort out all of the mixed messages coming out of the consumer. people talk about sweet green being a bright spot, but when you're kind of smaller, still growing on an organic way, you're adding stores, it's a little bit different than when you're already a big company like mcdonald's or starbucks, and you don't really have that kind of share to gain. one other point, and i always talk about the index make-up and what drives these things. consumer discretionary, as a sector -- >> look at sweetgreen for a second. >> it's ripping. >> that's an incredible move.

>> i don't know -- >> they had a huge beat in same store sales. it seems to have a substantial short position as well. >> yes. always helpful on a day like that. >> definitely was not just better than feared. it was pretty objectively, pretty good number. and they have been, you know, seen as having a tough time in terms of high price point and things like that, and they managed to manage through that this time. i was just going to say, consumer discretionary has dipped below 10% of s&p market cap. that doesn't happen very often. and by the way, like, 5% of that is amazon, tesla, and home depot. so, it just shows you that the market as a whole is not as consumer-dependent as the u.s. economy is. part of that is autos. huge, you know, spending cap worry but trivial in terms of market value. so, just something to keep in mind when we say sort of thinking that the market goes the way of the consumer. also, of course, costco, walmart, target are in consumer staples, which is kind of just the categorization ceiling. >> we got another name, which is

capri, which is also done on earnings, a bit of a slowdown there as well in terms of accessible luxury, so to speak. of course, don't forget, their deal to acquire tapestry is being opposed by the ftc. that sort of figures into this as well in terms of from the risk arb perspective, but the overall trend remains kind of along the lines of what you have been describing. >> yeah. exactly. and you know, the aspirational luxury category is arguably kind of tough because you have some people, by definition, who are kind of stretching to afford some of those brands and then others who just are, you know, kind of your basic mass market offerings. you mentioned the citi card data on luxury spending. it's a pretty significant reset, down 11%. >> just to remind people, versace, jimmy choo, michael kors. there's a mention of the note we've hit a couple of times as well.

those shares are down, and again, don't forget the likelihood of a potential being able to persevere in that litigation from the ftc also figures prominently or can, overall, into what's going to happen with tapestry and the like. what else are we looking at? >> top of the s&p is expedia at this point. so, that's bouncing about 9%, didn't have results, wedbush categorizing the quarter as better than feared. this is, you know, it's been an interesting set-up, because booking has been the leader in the area, the favorite of investors. expedia has been a laggard. cheap, ten times earnings, as opposed to 20 for booking, and it seems like even though they were somewhat muted in terms of talking about the third quarter guidance, it was good enough progress, i think, on the revamp. >> we have the cfo, i believe, as well discussing the sort of the state of the consumer right now, and we have been focused in part on travels. take a listen to what he had to say. >> while we've accelerated our

gross bookings throughout q2, entering the third quarter, we have seen a more challenging macroenvironment and a slowdown in travel demand consistent with recent commentary from others in the travel industry. and while we saw flat adrs in q2, we saw a decline in july stemming from fx headwinds and from consumers trading down to lower-priced properties and we have also seen more continued softness in air ticket prices. >> none of which is stopping the stock price from moving higher, as you said. >> no, it had been, i don't know, well off its highs, so it's not as if it's coming off of a strong level, but you know, echoing some of what we heard from airbnb as well. careful consumer, shorter stays, et cetera. you know, there's also a talk that the higher-end u.s. consumer has been traveling more overseas, and so the beneficiaries are those that have that exposure. >> even disney said that in terms of an explanation, for example, while there's some --

while there might be some softness in parks, overseas travel is taking precedence over domestic travel, at least in their parts overseas are doing okay. >> the lead article in the "wall street journal" about, hey, should we really worry about the economy is a family that reduced their walt disney stay from six days to one. anecdotally, there's just a little bit less demand. >> yeah, well, and also, "the journal" pointed out, but jim cramer's been talking about it as well. it's expensive. you know? it's -- just dollar-wise, it's a pretty big ticket in terms of going to disneyworld. >> no doubt. >> that said, we can take a look at that stock and sort of see if it's not really any kind of a rebound during the course of the week after it did report earnings earlier this week, and there was that concern about the parks, particularly when it comes to operating income in the parks, which was a significant reversal from expectations in terms of what they've led to. still talking about a potential

revival, so to speak, in the back half of next year for the parks overall. but you know, that gets me to par paramount. it's been an interesting week, a group that i cover more closely than many others. warner bros. discovery was a key yesterday, watching that stock lose as much as 10% or more of its market value. significant writedown there. continued questions about the linear cable network. same here at paramount, but it's a bit of a different story, isn't it, in part because the company is -- at least a lot of it's getting bought, so you've got that bid for it. remember, of course, the skydance, red bird transaction, calling for as much as -- for 50% of the company to be bought at a higher number than here, 15 bucks a share. that said, you still will have a stock that trades on the fundamentals. it's up this morning, not because of losses at the linear networks, not because revenues were down 11%, but because, as was the case at disney, there

was some signs of life, so to speak, in terms of profitability at direct to consumer, that being paramount plus. overall, revenues of $6.8 billion, as i said, a year over year decline of 11%, led by declines in linear cable networks, which just continue apace. but there was that ebitda -- actual ebitda, mike, at paramount plus. whether that can be maintained and what the ultimate looks like over the course of the year in terms of the expenses yet to come remains somewhat unclear. they're also taking a lot of -- a lot of expense out of the business, 50% of the workforce, $500 million is the three-headed monster that is the ceo at this company but is part of the $1.5 billion that skydance is at least eyeing as it expects to take control, let's call it, midpoint next year, second half of next year when regulatory clearances are all received. perhaps it could be a bit faster than that. when i talked to david ellison

and gerry cardinale, a few weeks back, they indicated a hope that it would move more quickly, but they are sticking with that conservative timeline. sports figure so prominently into all of these conversations. cbs, an important component of it. i do want to make the point, the nfl does have the right to renegotiate on a change of control. it's not expected that they're going to actually use that right to go somewhere else, but they most likely will get their pound of flesh from paramount, so add that into the expected costs of the deal as well. >> yeah. i mean, keybanc's reaction to the paramount news was shrink to survive, and i think that's been the rule for a while. you can take as much cost out as you can. obviously, getting the capital infusion, it creates this anchor to the business, to the balance sheet, and then you have -- >> coming on the balance sheet, obviously, 50%, you know, i mean, it's an $8 billion deal as we pointed out many times. many have also questioned the valuation for skydance at $4.75 billion. i continue to hear that in many

of the -- amongst the people that i speak to in the media world. how could they value it at that? if you believe it's going to do $545 million in ebitda in 2026, then the multiple's not that high, right? they say a lot of that is assured based on pipeline and based on commitments that are already there in terms of paying for the programming that skydance will produce. we will see, but that's what they say, not to mention, of course, they're getting their stock, as well, at 15 for that $4.75 billion so they're taking an inflated price on a stock that most likely will be far lower, ultimately meaning they're paying less for the unit. >> yeah, all makes sense. and just bigger picture, it's kind of fascinating. netflix, the acclaimed winner in this whole game, it's under a $300 billion market cap, right? so, it's sort of -- it's sort of adds some perspective to see -- you talk about mark mahaney saying it's google and meta in terms of advertising destinations, not to mention amazon, and everybody else is sort of fighting over what's left, to some degree. disney's the clear kind of

runner-up to netflix in terms of the model and the franchise and everything else, and market value, and then it's the rest. >> yeah. and we -- >> and comcast, of course. >> we always come back to sports. we've talked a great deal about it. as it slowly, slowly starts to migrate and most likely continue to, as these deals come off over the next five to ten years, to the amazons, the apples, and potentially the netflix of the world. netflix has two christmas nfl games. they had no idea how they're going to produce them, by the way, netflix, is my understanding. they don't have -- >> are they putting it out for bid? >> they're asking others, will you do it for us? they don't have any announcers. they don't have any production capabilities, and they got two games about five months from now that they got to figure out how to produce. i'm sure they'll figure it out as well. netflix. let's change gears a bit and talk about presidential politics. republican presidential nominee donald trump held a news conference yesterday, and he weighed in on a number of topics, including the federal

reserve and fed chair powell, trump saying he should have a voice when the fed makes its decision on interest rates. >> i feel the president should have at least say in there, yeah. i feel that strongly. i think that, in my case, i made a lot of money. i was very successful, and i think i have a better instinct than, in many cases, people that would be on the federal reserve or the chairman. >> let's bring in steve liesman, the man who's been following the federal reserve for a very long time. giv gives us some context, steve. >> never exactly sure what he's saying, you know? having a say, well, you know, the president kind of has a say already. does he mean something more formal, something more structural, changing the independence of the federal reserve? dave, let's have a quick look on ways that presidents can influence the federal reserve right now. there are these things which trump used very liberally back in his day, open-mouth operations, free to criticize

the federal reserve. the biden administration hasn't done it. harris's people tell me she's in favor of the independence of the fed, not really inclined to comment. they can appoint members of the federal reserve board, and they could work with a friendly congress to amend the federal reserve act with how much of congress's control they want to give up. just by the quirk of the calendar and the way that the fed terms are staggered, to really maintain that independence, if trump wins, if harris wins, neither will have a lot of ability to really influence the make-up of the board if you look at it. for example, powell's term doesn't expire until may 2026. vice chair jefferson, not until 2027. the first fed governor term expires january 2026. and just one more thing. you know there was this april "wall street journal" story that quoted some allies and a paper that had been out there that said there's thinking among his

allies about going further than existing rules, giving the fed chair, for example, the ability to fire the federal reserve chair. so, that's where we're at right now. i would just make the one editorial comment, donald trump does speak to the press, and we're not sure what he says. harris doesn't speak to the press at all. that's where we're at right now. >> you know, steve, it's fascinating. you mentioned trump made liberal use of open-mouth operations. clearly, always in the direction of, he thinks rates should be lower. what i find fascinating, if you listen to donald trump when he's asked about inflation, he immediately goes to interest rates. he thinks of interest rates as inflation, as a high cost. he, as a private sector operator, that was his biggest cost. he always had to pay interest. he was always leveraged, went bankrupt a few times and he doesn't really have the equation in the same direction the fed does in terms of higher interest rates are fighting inflation. >> it is interesting. mike, it's unclear to me what

the trump plan is to lower inflation. when we do our national surveys, americans blame biden for the inflation, and whether that's the case is a different economic discussion. but it's unclear what the trump plan is, other than he has spoken about this idea of maximizing energy production that would bring down energy costs and then would essentially, he says, bring down all of inflation. that seems to be the trump plan at this point. so, it's one of those things where interest rates are on the fore of the mind of a real estate developer because that is his number one cost. but again, lots of talk at the top, not a lot of details underneath, david. >> yeah. but something that we will continue to monitor, and should he regain that office as well, i'm sure we'll be hearing a lot from him on his social media platform as he did last time he was president in terms of jawboning with powell numerous

times. powell never responded, but basically saying -- didn't he call him the enemy? a worse anymore than -- enemy than china? >> trump has had some good instincts in business, he's had some bad instincts. let's say trump had the best instincts of anyone ever. there will be another president. do you want that president to have the ability to set interest rates? whatever changes are made need to be made for the long haul, hopefully not for an individual. >> steve, thank you. what an appropriate time to do a bond report before we take you to a quick break. we can check out how treasurys are faring this morning. we have exceeded 4%. it's been an interesting week, to say the least, when it comes to yields for the ten-year, given where we were on monday and where we end the week as you see a bit below that 4% yield. the two-year does exceed it. we're back right after this.

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check out shares of take-two interactive. "grand theft auto" is there key product. i think they're up to the fourth version, right? >> the one that's coming is the sixth. >> you know me and roman numerals, mike. >> and i'm is the sixth. >> me and roman numerals what can i tell you? >> i'm no help on video. >> you're right. see. little i know. but you can see right there the stock is up and they're talking about net bookings outlook for the year, $5.65 billion that does seem to be enough to assure investors at this point. carl has a look at what is ahead in the show. >> we're here in france today. what a night for u.s. track and field. eight medals last night. the most in a single day for that team. . in over 30 yrsea. our coverage continues live from paris in a moment. possibilities are multiplying.

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us. >> yes. >> now she's back. sorry. >> eunice, take it away. >> okay. i hear you now. inflation data came in better than expected, cpi was rising by 0.5% year on year. ppi also came in minus 0.8%, but that was actually better than expected. the underlying issue, though, are the same. if you strip out the food and energy prices, core inflation came in higher by 0.4%, but that was still lower than june. so the authorities here said the main issue was weather. the weather issues both the heat as well as the rainfall here has been pushing up prices, especially of certain vegetables and pork.

the summer travel has been able to give a temporary bump people said to the tourism figures up by 9.4%, but a lot of analysts think that's going to be a seasonal factor. in terms of the ppi, the falling prices of materials was one of the main issues there, as well as the intense price wars. what we're seeing from the data really is that there still continues to be a lot of weakness in this economy, especially with demand. >> yeah. no doubt seems as if the markets were quick to categorize that inflation number as a lot of extraordinary factors not something particularly to worry about in terms of inflation turning higher. eunice did want your thoughts or you to weigh in on this port explosion we've been hearing about this morning. >> wow. oh. all right. yeah, again we're having audio

issues with eunice in beijing. you can see, of course -- >> it was a container ship explosion that did get a lot of attention. sort of not clear it's going to necessarily be broadly disruptive, but it was a hazardous goods see that drain into the weekend. people are going to be on edge about geopolitical stuff and maybe the japan noise is not completely past. yeah, taking stock. 6:00 p.m. josh brown and i will take the hour to sort of size up the week, figure out what willen to ma -- will continue to matter into the market and break down where

we sit, correction in an uptrend, what about this rotation we spoke so much about in the market that seemed like it was a fleeting moment or at least for it to be an easy one was a fleeting moment and the whole hard landing, soft landing story and try to have fun with it and award medals to various companies. >> very nice. little medal ceremony. >> i think we're going to try to be synergistic about it. >> every time you take home gold. thank you for being here. >> thanks a lot. >> a quick break. we'll be right back. your skin is ever-changing, take care of it with gold bond's healing formulations of 7 moisturizers and 3 vitamins. for all your skins, gold bond.

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good friday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm david faber with morgan brennan. we're live from post nine of the new york stock exchange. alongside carl quintanilla. final day of events. sara has the morning off. a look at markets. as we have the final trading day of what is a volatile week and we are down. close to the flat line from a week ago. we're flirting with it. 30 minutes into the trading session. three movers we are watching. expedia, posting an earnings beat but warning of, quote, softening travel demand and trimming the full year guidance. hearing a lot this week. multiple analysts calling the guide, quote, better than feared after disappointing reports from other competitors. you can see shares are bouncing 8%. sweetgreen shares soaring. the salad chain beating earnings estimates giving guidance, revenue rising 20% from a year ago. people like their salad.

take look. >> owneny of jimmy chew and a number of other versace significant luxury brands. if you haven't tuned in yet you missed a wild week for stock. the s&p posted both its best and worst daily performances since 2022. dom chu joins us with some key takeaways. of course, we have most of the trading day ahead of us. >> no doubt about it. entering today, that's what we're going to focus on the idea to morgan's point we're flirting with where we're week ago entering the session, given the volatility. put some of those charts behind the names. what we have seen is some moves here with regard to performance.

specifically the material stocks, discretionary stocks and the utilities, the three worst performing sectors on a one-week basis in that span given the volatility. it hasn't been as volatile for these particular sectors as certain key ones the bigger ones in the marketplace, discretionary excluded one of those mag seven type sectors. if you kind of take a look at some of the other themes that have developed over the past week or so as well, take a look at the other sectors that have done decent performance here. take a look on the last week, showing you the same thing all over again, material discretionary and utilities. the three best performing sectors they have been industrials, energy and financials on a one-week basis. entering today the only three sectors in the s&p 500 that have seen positive performance we'll see if that holds at least early on today. some of the other at least things developing here with regard to the moves. the mag seven megacap technology type names, i'm putting a one-week chart up there so you can see how volatile it has been

and where we stand about a week where we have been. we are still recuperating some of the losses but you can see the sharp downturns we saw on monday,s have largely been made up for over the course of the last four or five trading days. they're still down on the week but appears that's where the dip buying occurred in apple, nvidia, microsoft and google. the rest of the mag seven trade as well to give you an idea of what we're talking about. amazon, meta as well, some of the names that we're kind of looking at here. that's going to be something for you to watch as well, keep an eye on those names. and then just one other point to kind of bring your attention to, if you look ona one-year basis, the real estate sector and utility sectors are the only two

sectors in the s&p 500 that are just fractionally below their 52-week highs. you can read into that what you will. there is still relative strength on the medium, longer term basis in a more defensive sector like utilities. real estate maybe not as defensive but a dividend income type play so keep an eye on that dynamic. i'll send things back over to you >> thank you. certainly appreciate it. dominic chu at our headquarters. next guest downgraded tech before the summer selloff in late june he did that and says it's time to buy. joining us is keith learner, co-chief investment officer at truist wealth. it was a good, timely call. you say much of the excess appears to be rung out and investor expectations have reset lower. explain to me why you believe that's the case and what that means? >> thank you, david and morgan. as you mentioned we had been positive with an upgrade last november and moved up about 40% into june. the last move was -- we had the strongest one month out performance of the s&p we've seen since 2002. that's one of the reasons we downgraded even throw we thought the secular trends were in place. fast forward, we upgraded the

sector, you've seen almost the complete opposite. the one month under performance relative to the s&p is the worst since 2002. at the same time as you ook at this correction, as the technology sector pulled back, earnings trends continue to make 52-week highs. we get past august into the fall, we think there will be more attentionback when we down

i say excess, it became excess complacency, last ramp up was all multiple expansion. so what i mean now, now we're back -- we talked about the mag seven a minute ago, you and dom did. the multiple for the mag seven went up to 34. now it's pulled back to 38. another way to think about -- >> 28. >> yeah. >> sorry. >> 28. so another way to think about that is, markets are about expectations and how things come in relative to expectation. the bar was too high before. that's why even though we had decent earnings, tech sold off. now that has been reset lower and that's a positive. >> here's what's interesting to me. we started with people worrying that recession risk had risen and the top three performing sectors this week are cyclical. industrials, financials, energy.

i realize we've got geopolitical stuff going on and better data out of china helping to push that sector higher anyway. why would those sectors be the ones out performing if the economy is slowing? >> well, i think at least this week, we had some positive economic data relative to depress expectations going to expectations. the initial jobless claims what sparked the rally yesterday, and it's all of a sudden thinking you're going into a recession and not so sure, maybe it's a soft landing, the market rotated back into the kind of cyclical areas of the market. i think that's how they are, decent earnings for some of these. ultimately we think the economy is cooling and some of the other areas will likely hang in there. we still think as we move later into this year that investors will rotate back into tech. >> final we talk about tech as though it's monolithic. it's huge. when you say tech, what are you really thinking about here? >> what i do. 50,000 in the cloud.

the sector overall. i would say if you're positive on tech, by definition you have to be positive on semiconductors, right. and some of the hyper scalers as well. more generally we like the sector and we like the stock in our equity team. >> thank you. appreciate it. >> thank you. all right. let's get back out to carl in paris following another busy day of olympic events. carl. >> yeah. last few days of competition here. a big weekend ahead as we move into saturday, sunday, and closing ceremony on sunday night. do want to give a shout out to u.s. track and fieldwinning

eight incredible moment. grant holloway, another winner in the men's 110 meter hurdle. three-time reigning world champion, gold medalist too. the u.s. has won 20 golds in this event, double the rest of the world combined and grant was interviewed about the competition yesterday. this was the thing we were all waiting for and wanted to accomplish and now it's accomplished we can sit back and have fun. the i main fig for all of us we can spleen. we run through a thousand scenario os in our head and we want the outcome to win, but i think the biggest thing is how

can we execute our race plan the best we can do. >> i know you like to keep track. still pretty tight on the gold race between the u.s. and china which i think last check we were both tied with 30. even as the u.s. continues to outpace all other countries on the total medal count. coming up later on this hour, we're going to talk to the ceo of usa track and field about the games here, what's on the line for los angeles '28 and interestingly, one of the few sports to compensate athletes for winning here at the olympics. talk about the reasoning behind that and how it's fueling a new generation of athletes. >> usa all the way. carl, you have covered quite a few olympics now. what's been your favorite at this one? . nothing really compares to beijing '08, my first, a different time where china was opening up and rolled out the red carpet and it was just a

different era really in terms of sc scale. but i would put paris aside from that one. i was telling andrew on "squawk," the way they've woven the games into the fabric of the city, the graciousness of the people here as it been stunning. the television coverage, the fact that it plays, it goes through the screen. it's wonderful to watch both in person, but what an amazing viewing experience for viewers back home as well. >> yeah. i mean, obviously, compared to tokyo, where there was nobody in the stands, it's night and day. >> exactly. >> and that was our last olympics so yeah. it's been amazing to watch. amazing. >> you must be -- all right. we'll talk more about it later this hour. >> any time. >> curious what you've been looig and i imagine it's swimming. >> enjoyed that a lot, yes. >> we'll see you later this hour. as we head to break, here is our road map for the rest of the

hour. a big week ahead when commit to the health of the consumer. we have exclusive results of our latest cnbc retail survey. plus, keep an eye on bitcoin because it has been rallying back above 60,000. we'll talk about what crypto investors need to know from here. and the semis coming off a rally, still down 10% this morning. how to play the group right now. a big show ahead. "squawk on the street" back after this. at aes, our energy solutions have powered the world forward for more than 40 years. and as demand continues to scale, so do our solutions. introducing maximo - our new ai-enabled solar robot. max makes construction faster, safer and more cost effective than ever before. and with max doing the heavy lifting, even more people can join the team. solar energy is changing the world, aes is changing the world of solar.

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>> good morning. consumers boosted their spending in july compared with june, according to the cnbc national retail federation retail monitor. good growth we saw in 10 of 12 spending categories with data that do offer some optimism or confidence that the consumer and the economy is keeping momentum going in the third quarter. retail up 07 compared 50 core

retail another way we slice the data takes out restaurants up, 03 compared to 03 of the prior month. 1.7 the year over year rate. the cnbc data is derived from actual credit card spending during the month gathered and crunched by affinity solutions. helped by back to school spending and online sales promotions like prime day. taking a look by sector, gas station sales up 3.4%, strong spending in restaurants and bars. general merchandise did well. furniture and home furnishings might have benefitted from college students furnishing their dorms garden supply were both two negative sectors. general merchandise doing well, as is electronics and appliances. the furniture segment once again. gas stations down 3%. clothing having a tough time it would appear this year. sales in the retail monitor have been running a bit above its own trend the past few months and a bit above the consensus retail sales data. consumers remain cautious but

still spending where they find value and good prices. economists polled by reuters, 0.3% gain in the headline on thursday that morgan mentioned and 0.1% ex-autos. after the weak friday jobs report markets have been hungry for data showing whether the broadening economy is weakening or the fed jobs report was an outlier. the perk up in consumer facing goods and getting a peak shipping season in the summertime as retailers begin to build up inventories ahead of the key holiday season. when i look at some of that data are we seeing signs that consumers are starting to spend a little bit more on goods, maybe less on services.

. >> i think there could be a bounce back and that's a great observation, morgan. as you know, we've had wild swings in this data, right. everybody bought goods during the pandemic because they couldn't go get any services. then you had what they called, i don't know, revenge spending in the wake of the pandemic, and now we're looking for things to normalize and that's why, morgan, it's been one of the reasons it's been so hard to track this economy and to forecast the economy. you had all this money given to consumers over a period of time in the pandemic, that appears to have wound down, but if i had a dollar are for every time an economist wrote savings have been depleted i would be a rich person because the savings don't seem to go down to nothing, they seem to still be there. we have a bank of america person on still money in the accounts they look at. the pompeo line-- bottom line a bet to bet against the consumer

and the things your seeing it could be a sign it's not a decline in spending but a shift. >> we are seeing shorter booking times. >> the u.s. consumer is soft. you've seen it from a variety of consumer companies. >> we have seen a more challenging macro environment and slow down in travel demand with recent commentary from others. >> watching the consumer and some of the softening there. >> we were a little bit --

talking about the consumer. >> wholesale is relatively weak both mainly driven by traffic. >> you are seeing a little bit of the consumer struggle in some areas of the market. >> persistent inflation over the last few years has led to belt tightening across wide portions of consumer discretionary spending. we see it in internal and external survey data where price is the biggestconcern of our customers. >> let's get more perspective on the consumer and the state of retail. joining us is jan kniffen, jay rodgers kniffen, ww ceo. great to have you on we played quite a string of commentary from executives just from this week. how do you see the consumer here and coming off of the comment that steve liesman made, is it less spending or a shift in spending? >> well,i apparel, and so

we're seeing that deflation come right out of china and the number one good that's deflating out of china happens to be apparel. so you can see that showing up in the numbers. but apparel sales from the point of view of units being delivered aren't all that bad. this whole thing in retail is sort of this whole good news-bad news joke, i was thrilled to see the monitor this morning because it sees the world like i do, so far so good, right. but then as insaid, you know, that is exactly what the guy who fell off the 10-story building said going by the fifth floor window. we're wondering what the stock looks like at the bottom. i've always used one measure to

tell me how the consumer is doing and we've used it for 40 years. we asked all kinds of consumers and said, do you have a job. will you keep your job. if you lost your job could you get one paying just as much or more and when we were getting 3.5% inflation and -- 3.5% unemployment and 1.7 million job claims, right, continuing claims, everybody could say yes. well now we're approaching 4.5% unemployment and we're approaching not 1.9 million continuing claims, a lot less people can say yes. if we get to6%, unemployment, 2 million plus continuing claims, nobody will say yes. when they can't say yes, what do they do? they quit spending. >> okay. so we're seeing a shakeout. winners, losers. you saw it this week.

we're going to get more next week when you get home depot and walmart and retail sales, some of the other names behind that as well. what's doing well? what isn't? in a disinflation or deflationary environment what matters more, gross margins and profit and cost cutting even if you're seeing pressure on the top line. >> you named a couple of the best retailers in the world, right. i say all the time, walmart, costco, home depot, dick's sporting goods four of the best in the country and they'll eli lilly do -- they'll do fine. they're going to be winners and winners no matter which categories are actually doing well or which categories are slowing a little bit. because they've put the money back in all during covid and are continuing to and it's showing up in their ability to manage their business, control the inventory. inventories have never been better in retailing than they are right now and all those big retailers are making that happen. it's a bad time to be a small poorly capitalized retailer because we already have seen 55 plus bank ruppsys this year in retailing the most in the last 13 years.

and it's happening because if you aren't right on top of your game with plenty of money to reinvest and make the consumer happy you're getting hurt. so yes, i've got favorites and i've got favorites across the board. they don't all have to be big. you can be a niche player that wins like boot barn, tractor supply, general store can, they have a nichewhere they have the up some of your points, shrink is increasing, typically theft,

although other things that go along with it. target reported the one quarter in particular and talked about an enormous shrink number. i thought maybe things had gotten better. >> well, growth rate may have gotten better, but it's going up. we haven't solved the problem at all. it's as a percent of business it's still getting worse. other things, of course, we're handling better but that's still a problem. the things that are a problem, the things going on in groceries, not as bad as it was, puts pressure on the consumer and things like theft and other things in the cost structure that go the wrong way will put pressure on retail. one of the biggest things right now is the shrink and also partly because we've started moving to self-checkout and every time you move to self-checkout you get more shrink. we're getting rising shrink, not clearing that in the system. we haven't solved it with

technology and we certainly have solved it with psychology. >> one to watch. five below the last couple quarters hit hard with that. jan kniffen great to get your thoughts. >> thank you. >> well, it has been a volatile >> well, it has been a volatile week

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time for your cnbc news update. i'm silvana henao. vice president and democratic nominee kamala harris continues her campaign blitz with a rally in phoenix, arizona, today. harris and her running mate minnesota governor tim walz are on a seven-state sweep across major battlegrounds. harris and walz were in michigan last night to deliver remarks to members of the united autoworkers union. the remnants of debby, now a tropical depression, are bringing heavy rains and destruction to the east coast. the national weather service has issued flood warnings and

watches from the carolinas up to new england for more than 35 million people. a tornado watch is also in effect across the recently after a twister touched down in north carolina last night. travis scott was arrested in paris, following an alleged fight with a security guard at a hotel in paris. french authorities say the incident occurred at luxury hotel and that officers were called after the security guard was allegedly assaulted. scott was pictured earlier in the day in the crowd at the men's olympic basketball semifinal. back to you. >> thank you. bitcoin has been bounce back above 60,000 after a trouble of 49,000 earlier this week. mackenzie joins us at post nine more on what has been sizable moves during the course of just a handful of days. >> david the crypto a reflection of what we're seeing, back above

$2.1 trillion in bitcoin surging to 62,000 this morning on track for one of its largest single day percentage gains this year. ether trading as high as 2700. many while more than 100 million in short bets on bitcoin lick quit dated helping to support bitcoin's move higher. put this in context, even though bitcoin and ether are higher than the intraday lows we saw monday they're still down in the last seven days with ether on pace for its worst week in nearly two years. it's a similar story with the crypto line stocks. coinbase, micro strategy, all trading on pace for their third straight weekly loss. the big take away here is that

the crypto market has been moving in lock step with u.s. stocks with the same macro triggers. thursday fresh data on jobless claims that comes in lower than expected helps allay the recession fears and suddenly the s&p 500 having its best day in almost two years and the crypto two days you saw the spot bitcoin etfs get $245 million and they saw outflows monday and tuesday, and wednesday morgan stanley unleashes the army of 15,000 allowing them to offer the crypto product and we see that re-acceleration in spot bitcoin etfs. >> mackenzie, thank you. it is interesting. bitcoin hovering around 60,000. 61,000 key resistance according to a number of technicians. good to have you here on set. nvidia on pace for its worst month of the year. it's only the first full week of august. we've got more on what comes next for that stock and the semis with one of the streets a top analysts. don't go anywhere.

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welcome back. a fresh read from the chips. taiwan semi reporting a 45% jump in revenue compared to last year thanks to strong demand for the ai chips. shares are well, bouncing around along the flat line here, but a big outperformer on the year. >> okay. one of their key customers, of course, is nvidia and thatstock has blackwell. a, well just give me your take? is it real and what's it going to mean? >> it seems like it's real

enough, enough smoke there, there's fire. we've got confirmation for folks in the supply chain super micro alluded to it, and it seems -- doesn't seem major. seems like a relatively minor design issue and looks like they may have fixed it. maybe a two to three-month delay i think. what that means is, where people were hoping that like real volume shipment was happening in calendar q4 may be q1. this stuff is difficult to do, so like nvidia is not necessarily immune to it. in the meantime we've had hyper scale capex guides still going up. all of those would have incorporated whatever is going on, like they didn't just find out about this because it was new source. they would have incorporated it. nvidia has strong demand for their existing architecture called hopper looks like they're likely increasing production on that to back phil and smooth things over until we get them

launching a quarter later. sentiment wise, clearly it's impacted the stock. i think the stock is [ inaudible ] one would -- it's been a general reduction of sentiment on the ai space in general people looking at lots of dollars getting spent, where is the return. the sentiment wasn't, you know, quite as supportive as it had been. you have this on top of it which weighs on it. that's kind of what's been going on. structurally i don't know that anything really has changed with nvidia. we've togot a push out. it will be okay. >> demand is demand. what about the stock from the multiple and that and whether t makes it even more compelling, i guess, from the perspective of somebody like yourself. >> yeah. nvidia has never really been that expensive. even at its peak 40 times forward eengs. the sell side for it numbers based on it likely still too low. 40 times about its five-year

median or average. it's cheaper now, probably 30 times now. yeah, derisked a little bit going into the back half on the back of this and if they do announce some kind of delay and verify it on the call, at this point, everybody kind of knows about it. we got to work through this. demand still looks really strong. pushing yield volume can look better. more upside to the numbers hopefully. i think the valuation here still looks attractive. >> okay. stacy, i realize you don't cover this name, but applied materials we're going to get those results next week. >> i cover applied materials. >> you do. i stand corrected. what are you watching for there and how much of an indicator is that to the broader semi space as we look at a second half of the year? >> yeah. there's a few things. people are watching china semi

cap demandangst. i will say intel took their capex guidance for this year from $33 billion to 26. i actually had to take my capex numbers up, not down. i don't know where that $33 billion number came from. i was at 24. i had to take it up to 26. next year i took it down a little bit. we've been at 24. we're at 21.5 for intel. minor reduction. again the same thing, the semi caps would have known about whatever intel is doing before intel announced it. those are the kind of things people will be watching for as they report. i think it's on the 15th of next week. >> okay. it's worth noting or worth

asking because intel is down another 4% right now. we're down 43% on the month, 60% on the year. you do anywhere near this or a value trap? >> i don't see how you can go near it. i would be afraid to short it too. let's be honest. it's kind of trading around tangible book value which is pretty low. but -- and look, i said this earlier, i think when -- a couple days ago, maybe last week, to their credit they do have a bunch of cash coming on the balance sheet coupled with the cost cuts and capex cuts an

>> but we'll keep revisiting it as well. if they get through this, i guess years from now, perhaps, there could be a different -- a different story for investors. >> literally call me in a few years. for now there's no reason. >> we'll call you sooner than that. for now we're going to put an end to it. have a great weekend. thanks, stacy. >> you bet. >> all right. well as we head to break, check out shares of els beauty slumping after disappointing guidance there. we'll break down those numbers with the ceo in an exclusive coming up on my show, "closing bell: overtime" kicking off at 4:00 p.m. overtime. first out to carl with a look at what's still ahead in this show. carl? >> a historic night for u.s. track and field. coming up next we'll talk to the ceo of u.s. track and field when our coverage from paris continues. with godaddy websites plus marketing, you can quickly create a website, and ai will customize it for you.

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(clears throat) okay. most of you are not rock stars. oooh. data driven insights, and large language models. oh, that's so rock roll. it is, right. he gets it. yeah. the ceo of usa track and field. we talked about the paris games, we talked about l.a. 2028 and

player compensation. they are the first sport to introduce prize money at the olympics. $50,000 if you win gold. it's been seen as a pretty innovative move, especially when you consider the fact that a lot of young athletes, training for the olympics can be quite a financial hardship. >> we've had a revenue distribution plan in the past. we've increased our prize money and we've increased direct financial support for a group of athletes. we feel that despite the progress, we would love to keep growing. we have a long way to go to make sure we're doing it. for us to sustain it, you have to have a series, the public demand, whether it's viewership or sponsors point into it. again, we see l.a. as a great opportunity to do that. >> finally, as we move through today's competition and this weekend's competition, we'll talk more and more about closing ceremony on sunday night. we do know that nick mead, the

american rower, and katie ledecky will be flag bearers at clo closing. ledecky, by the way, we have video of her being told she would be flag bearer. she's voted on by her fellow athletes. this is the moment she found out. pretty emotional. and unconfirmed reports, speculations, rumors about what we might see sunday night. will tom cruise, somehow, drop in? will billie eilish or the chili peppers drop in? there have been a bunch of celebrities at the games, john travolta, ryan gosling, sharon stone, how much the city is able to put that firepower to work will be interesting when we get closer to sunday night. finally, coming up in the next hour, david, we'll talk to the ceo of usa swimming, speaking of ledecky, and sort of put into some context what these games

meant to the sort as we saw history being made, mostly last week, but something we have not forgotten. >> i've missed these tom cruise reports. this is now piquing my interest on what him dropping in will look like knowing the-list, it' how many ceos and investors seem to be participating this year. >> yes. a lot of that. largely about. >> yeah. and just about amazing

competition, whether in the pool or on the track or the field or whatever it might be. i mean, it really has been just a joy to watch, as you know. >> yeah. by the way, i just learned a couple minutes ago that swimming in l.a. will be at sofi stadium, so start packing. >> wow. when they get to the short men over 60 olympics, i'm there. i'm there, carl. it's going to happen. >> i would buy a ticket to that. >> yeah, it's going to happen. nobody else will be there. that will be in my own stadium. carl, great stuff all week. well done. >> see you soon. >> after the break, bell that's war of wdsor about crowdstrike is ratcheting up as the airline says, don't blame the victim and pay up. we have those details next. also in financial and estate planning and more. (other money manager) your clients rely on you for all that? (fisher investments) yes. and as a fiduciary, we always put their interests first. (other money manager) but you still sell commission -based products, right? (fisher investments) no. we have a simple management fee structured

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delta's war of words with crowdstrike ratcheted up overnight. these two can't stop yapping, phil lebeau. what do we know now? >> well, we know that delta has been adamant that crowdstrike and microsoft should pay up for the impact of the i.t. outage which was two weeks ago today, is when it took place, on july

19th. yesterday delta filed an 8k. they gave greater detail -- greater specificity in terms of the impact saying it cost them basically $550 million. of that, $380 million was lost revenue. it also included commentary from ceo ed bastian. we talked to him at the olympics. we've heard from him a couple of times since this outage. he's adamant that microsoft and crowdstrike need to pay up because of the impact their outage had on their system at delta, saying an operational disruption of this length and magnitude is unacceptable. our customers and employees deserve better. so, what does crowdstrike do? their response is, hey, you know what, this narrative of us being responsible for what happened with all of the flights canceled, all of the cost impact on delta, crowdstrike calls that misleading. david, i think we're headed to ultimately what i think delta would like to avoid is actually having to sue microsoft and crowdstrike.

but at this point, microsoft and crowdstrike have shot back saying, look, don't blame us because you couldn't manage the system well. we were offering our help immediately after this started. we have been in touch with you. and the fact that it took longer than expected time relative to other airlines to get back online, well, i mean, that -- it was a unique outage that took place here. i think ultimately, guys, we're headed toward a lawsuit because it doesn't seem like crowdstrike and microsoft want to pay up at this point. >> it doesn't. to your point, microsoft has added its voice as well. they have plenty of money to fight any lawsuit whatsoever. >> they do. they do. crowd strike a slightly different situation. they don't have the coffers that microsoft has, but they would like to avoid a lawsuit if possible. at this point, they are not -- this is not the words of, hey, let's sit down we a mediator or someone to find common ground

is. we don't like what you've said about us and we disagree 100%. >> all right. phil lebeau, thank you. crowdstrike up 1.5%. actually, shares of s&p, nasdaq and dow have also turned higher. >> yeah. it's been an interesting week. it will continue to be as we follow this market and all of its moves. our live market coverage continues right after this break. car, where are we going? we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!! the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. car, were you in on this? nothing gets by you james. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com weathertech products are designed and manufactured in america using only american raw materials. most competitors make things seven thousand miles away... and then wonder why they don't fit.

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good friday morning and welcome to "money movers." i'm morgan brennan with david faber. we're live from post 9 of the new york stock exchange. coming up, wilmington trust ceo tony roth joins us on why stocks will rally from here. kathy jones on why the fed should cut 50 basis points next month. later, wti crude on its best week since april. we'll tackle the commodities this hour. you can see we are up across the board. it's been a volatile market, to say the least, during the course of the week, seein